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Baseball has a serious competitiveness problem

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Arenado’s trade just another example of teams not trying to win. Photo via legitsports.com

I don’t think this post is necessarily a surprise to those of us who follow the sport. MLB has a serious competitiveness problem, and it seems to be coming to a particular head for the 2021 season … just in time for the CBA to expire.

The reason I bring this up is because of a series of really, really concerning moves we’ve seen this past off-season, coupled with some of the more seismic moves seen in the past couple of off-seasons, has really got me shocked.

Specifically, i’m about:

  • the Colorado Rockies dumping their franchise player and likely future hall of famer Nolan Arenado for a set of middling prospects AND sending $50M to the Cardinals.
  • I’m talking about one of the absolute wealthiest teams in the sport (the Chicago Cubs) trading away key players (Yu Darvish) and doing little to augment their team for 2021.
  • I’m talking about Boston trading away the best home-grown player they’ve had since, I dunno, Ted Williams, in what amounted to a salary dump (again, this is Boston, who make more than $500M annually in revenues) when they jettisoned Mookie Betts.
  • I’m talking about teams in major, huge markets (Texas Rangers, Seattle Mariners) basically not trying.
  • I’m talking about the best team in the AL last year (Tampa Bay) flipping its best player (Ian Snell) for 60 cents on the dollar BEFORE he even got that expensive.
  • I’m talking about teams like Atlanta (whose numbers are public record because they are owned by a publicly-traded company) earning $476M in revenue in 2019 and basically holding pat on payroll for years.
  • I’m talking about teams in mid-sized markets (Arizona, Baltimore, Miami) acting as if they’re barely staying afloat.

And so on.

I did a quick analysis of where the MLB teams stand in terms of whether they’re really “trying” for the 2021 season, based on their off-season activity and their 2020 results, and i came up with a pretty shocking list of teams. By my counts:

  • 14 teams are purposely doing as little as possible to improve their teams this off-season. Not surprisingly, these 14 teams account for 14 of the 17 smallest projected payrolls right now.
  • Another 3 teams are competitive and/or have high payrolls, but are making moves that question their intent (specifically: Boston, San Francisco, and Tampa)
  • This leaves the remaining 13 teams which are clearly “trying,” actively signing and improving their teams, increasing payroll, etc. Again, not surprisingly, these 13 “trying” teams currently comprise 12 of the top 13 projected 2021 payrolls.

Here’s the core data, stored by division and then projected payroll rank. I used Cot’s 2021 payroll projections , Fangraphs Roster Resource Depth charts/transaction trackers, and MLBtraderumors 2021 FA tracker to gauge activity.

TeamDivisionRankCB Tax 40-manTrying?Notes
Chicago White SoxAL Central11166.6YesAcquired Lynn, signed Hendricks
MinnesotaAL Central17125.9YesDone enough to maintain divisional lead
Kansas CityAL Central2196.8NoOnly minor moves
DetroitAL Central2291.2NoOnly minor moves
ClevelandAL Central2962.7NoTraded Carrasco and Lindor
BostonAL East2201.9Sort-ofThey've made moves, but really payroll hamstrung. Betts trade was disappointing
New York YankeesAL East3199.9YesSigned LeMahiue, Kluber, acquired Taillon
TorontoAL East12148.3YesSpringer acquisition plus Siemen trade, Matz trade
BaltimoreAL East2679.9NoWaiver claims and rule5 picks.
Tampa BayAL East2870.1Sort-of… but traded away Snell.
HoustonAL West4195.8YesStable, competitive roster
Los Angeles AngelsAL West7185.2YesAcquired Cobb, Iglesias, etc.
TexasAL West2389.9NoNot really attempting to compete in AL West, traded away Lynn
OaklandAL West2489.1No0 FA signings, almost no off-season activity
SeattleAL West2580.6NoVery little improvement attempts
St. LouisNL Central10169.7YesAcquired Arenado but that's about it for activity
Chicago CubsNL Central14143.5NoTanking mode; traded Darvish, non-tendered Schwarber
CincinnatiNL Central18125.6NoLittle movement in improving the team.
MilwaukeeNL Central20102.9NoAlmost no off-season activity
PittsburghNL Central3058.2No100% tanking mode; traded away most of their assets; just ONE guy on a multi-year contract
WashingtonNL East5193.7YesMultiple acquisitions pre season
PhiladelphiaNL East6186.2YesResigned Realmuto big, got Didi
New York MetsNL East8180.7YesHuge moves pre 2021; new owner, signed McCann, acquired Lindor and Carrasco, bullpen signings
AtlantaNL East15138.1YesTwo starters … but refuse to go much higher than current
MiamiNL East2773.6No
Los Angeles DodgersNL West1204.4YesDefending WS champs
San DiegoNL West9172.2YesGot Darvish AND Snell, plus Musgrove??
San FranciscoNL West13146.1Sort-ofLots of movement, but none to really make them competitive
ColoradoNL West16128.3No
ArizonaNL West19103NoNot a SINGLE off-season move

Furthermore, there’s some teams who I give credit for “trying” who just happen to be in divisions where basically everyone else is NOT trying … so just treading water constitutes as a pathway to success. Going division by division:

  • AL East: NY and Toronto competing. Boston sits at #2 in payroll thanks to god-awful contract management during the Dave Dombrowski era. Tampa was the best team in the AL in 2020, but projects to have the 3rd lowest payroll and just flipped Snell. Baltimore of course is doing almost nothing as normal.
  • AL Central: Chicago and Minnesota sit mid-league in payroll but get a free ride thanks to the rest of the division actively tanking. Kansas City, Detroit and Cleveland all trying to get worse on purpose.
  • AL West: Houston treading water with a great and expensive roster, the result of years of purposely tanking and starting this whole trend. The Angels continue to ineptly spend their money and not get Mike Trout to the playoffs. Nobody else trying, and Texas, Seattle, Oakland all sit in huge markets. Texas in particular is particularly galling; they reside in the 4th largest market in the majors and project to have the 23rd ranked payroll.
  • NL East: the most competitive division, with 4 of the 5 teams trying and spending money. Of course, as noted above Atlanta’s wealth is hamstrung artificially (which must be awesome for their fans). Miami continues to be an embarassment, a revenue suck on the rest of the league.
  • NL Central: perhaps the most egregious example; just one team seems to be trying to win in 2021 (St. Louis). The other four are dumping players and not spending money (Cubs, Cincy, Milwaukee and Pittsburgh, which projects to the lowest payroll in teh majors)
  • NL West: the Dodgers will always spend, and the Padres are really well positioned out of the blue, which has made the rest of the division wave the white flag already. San Francisco treads water getting out from under a ton of expensive, aging players, while Colorado has traded away an all-star team worth of talent in the past few years, and Arizona continues to be one of the most inept franchises in the game while sitting in the 10th largest US market, one that is growing wildly.

For me, a big part of this is the Luxury tax cap, which clearly is treated as a hard cap and thus stops wealthier teams from going over it. But another huge part is the lack of a corresponding salary floor. There’s also little incentive for teams to compete and win with pre-determined RSN payments driving their revenues. I think the league needs to look at bigger revenue sharing for its smaller teams to keep them competitive (like what the NFL does). Lastly, too many teams have now seen the pathway to success that bottoming out does and are emulating it … all at once. Only one team can draft #1 overall, but half the league is trying to do so. How do you resolve this?

In any case … the lack of trying and lack of spending has led to hundreds of millions of dollars of payroll NOT being spent on players … and they’ve got to get the playing field back to level. I think we’re going to see a pretty ugly work stoppage after 2021. I’m sure we’ll be revisiting this. But when it comes to good faith attempts to compete, more than half the league is not holding up their end of the bargain for 2021.

Written by Todd Boss

February 3rd, 2021 at 1:28 pm

Happy New Year! Obligatory Post on the 2021 Hall of Fame class

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This could be Schilling’s year. Photo via mlb.com

I write a baseball blog. Therefore, I am obligated to put in my 2 cents on Hall of Fame voting. And the new year is also the deadline for BBWAA voters to send in their real ballots for the Hall of Fame, so you see a glut of sportswriters publishing their ballots. Here’s more of the same from me.

How many years have I been doing this post?  Basically as long as we’ve had the blog.  Here’s (by class) 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011

I know lots of people have lost faith in the Hall of Fame, are tired of reading analysis like this, etc etc.  Fair enough; feel free to move on.

Here’s two key links for you, if you’re still reading.

So, the 2021 class is … well its weak. With all due respect to the newly eligible candidates on the 2021 ballot, there’s not a single one hall-worthy. Several “hall of very good” players, but none transcendent. There was just one “major award” won between any of the newly eligible players, that being Barry Zito’s Cy Young award in 2002.

Nonetheless, here’s some quick thoughts on those that are on this ballot, in rough order of descending career bWAR/likelihood of getting 5% votes to stick around on the ballot.

New to the 2021 Ballot Candidates:

  • Tim Hudson; highest JAWS of any of the 2021 new candidates, nearly the highest total career WAR. He certainly had enough time in the sun, playing for multiple playoff teams in his career (7 seasons pitching in the playoffs). Was frequently in Cy Young talks, but never really came close to winning one. Probably the best of this year’s class.
  • Mark Buehrle: the Andy Pettitte of the 00s. Their career stats are eerily similar; if you support Pettitte, you support Buehrle. I think both guys were career #3 starters with occasionally amazing stuff.
  • Torii Hunter had a surprisingly solid, quiet career. Great defender, great teammate. Not enough to make the hall.
  • Dan Haren: hey, he pitched for the Nats! And he threw 88mph (his twitter account is https://twitter.com/ithrow88).
  • Barry Zito: great early part of his career, forming the trio of amazing starters that Michael Lewis never once mentioned in Moneyball. Then became one of the worst-ever free agent contracts signed. 7 years, $126M. For that $126M he contributed a COMBINED 3.0 bWAR. Over 7 years. That’s $42M per WAR. Not the best legacy. Did win a Cy Young though.
  • Aramis Ramirez: a long-time middle of the order dangerous bat for Chicago. Multiple 30hr/100 rbi seasons. Surprised he never got more press.
  • Shane Victorino; we saw a lot of Victorino during the Philly golden years of the late 2000s. Solid player, that’s about it.
  • A.J. Burnett: pitched for years, .500 career record, just kind of always there as a #2 or #3 starter. He made one All Star team in his entire career and it was his farewell season.
  • Nick Swisher; the golden-child of the book Moneyball. Nice career.
  • LaTroy Hawkins: no disrespect, but I don’t want to ever hear about another reliever until Billy Wagner is inducted.
  • Michael Cuddyer; From Virginia! Part of a great history of players coming out of Great Bridge HS in Chesapeake over the past 20 years (also including Justin Upton, John Curtice and Connor Jones).

Returning Ballot Candidates
Here’s how I’d vote my imaginary ballot. Amazingly, i find myself struggling to get to 10 players.

  • Yes on Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, Curt Schilling, Manny Ramirez
  • more tepid Yes on Scott Rolen, Andruw Jones
  • Maybe it’s time to vote for Gary Sheffield, Billy Wagner, and Todd Helton
  • Pass for now on Jeff Kent, Sammy Sosa, Andy Pettitte,
  • No on Omar Vizquel, Bobby Abreu

Quick reasoning in order of the above:

  • Clemens and Bonds are two of the best players ever to play, regardless of later-in-their-career PED transgressions (alleged or otherwise). You can cut both their careers off at the point where they both allegedly used and they’re still HoFamers. Vote them in and be done with it.
  • Schilling may be abhorrent on social media, but he deserves the Hall based on his playing career. It does not go without saying though that it is completely reasonable for journalists to pass as a statement of protest at this point. If you want a full accounting of all the reprehensible stuff he’s spewed on social media lately, see Jay Jaffe‘s HoF post for a partial list. Its ridiculous. And frankly it makes me pause even putting his name here. Maybe its “putting your head in the sand” to support someone posting the vile crap he does … especially since he’s completely aware of what he posts and seemingly now does it for attention.
  • Ramirez was perhaps the most feared RH hitter for a decade in this league and has career numbers that put him in the top 25 hitters ever to play. Again, less interested in PED transgressions at the end of his career than I am with the bulk of his accomplishments.
  • Rolen is an interesting player whose value was much more about his defense than his offense. Interestingly the Hall has no problem electing top-end defensive short stops who couldn’t hit (see Ozzie Smith or Luis Aparicio) but seem to struggle when presented with an equally dominant defensive 3B who actually could hit. That’s Rolen to a t.
  • Jones was, for the first 10 years of his career, discussed as perhaps being the second coming of Willie Mays before getting hurt and getting run out of the game by the time he was 35. Despite playing just 11 full seasons he had 434 career homers and 10 straight gold gloves in Center. I think voters have just forgotten how good he was. Keith Law had a great post at the Athletic this week about just why Jones is hall-worthy, an interesting analysis that was worth reading.
  • Sheffield is a borderline candidate but was nearly as feared as Ramirez was at the plate. Has stronger PED usage allegations than others. He was, unfortunately, a “difficult” player to deal with both for club and media, which has probably led to his tepid support.
  • Billy Wagner: has better numbers than nearly any other inducted reliever. If you have any relievers in the hall, you’d need to consider Wagner (and as long as we’re having that conversation, say hello to Tom Henke).
  • Todd Helton was better than you remember. He had a season once where he hit .357 AND hit 42 homers. Just look past the fact that he was once arrested for DUI while buying lottery tickets. Lottery tickets! For a player who made $156M in his career.

Passing on and reasoning:

  • Bobby Abreu: good but not transcendent. Frankly i;m amazed at the support he’s getting so far on the bbhof tracker.
  • Jeff Kent is a polarizing figure, both while he played and on the ballot. He’s a borderline guy and his voting totals have indicated that.
  • Sosa: too hard to make a case that he reinvented himself as a home run hitter completely thanks to artificial mechanisms. He was a 36–40 homer guy then he suddenly rips off seasons of 66, 63, 50 and 64. I will say though, i do “buy” his corked bat explanation once I read that the league confiscated all his other bats and found no other cork.
  • Pettitte lead the league in wins in the 90s (much like Morris did in the 80s) but is recognized similarly to Mark Buehrle; a lefty 3rd or 4th starter for most of his career who stayed healthy and accumulated wins and strikeouts, but was rarely even the best hurler on his own team.
  • Vizquel was a mediocre hitter who played forever and nearly got to 3,000 hits. He was a solid defender yes, but I’m kind of at a loss as to why voters are giving him so much credence while Rolon struggles.

2020 MLB Awards Predictions

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So, I try to do this every year, and every year I do reasonably well in predicting the end-of-season awards as voted upon by the media members of the BBWAA.

This year? I have no idea what is going to happen. A combination of work, pandemic, side projects and other interests has really taken away from my focus on baseball in 2020. So honestly I have no idea who is set to win these awards. But lets do some educated guessing, with the help of some of my favorite national baseball writers.


AL MVP: Well, if you use the old adage “best player on the best team,” you end up with Brandon Lowe on the Tampa Bay Rays. Is Brandon Lowe getting MVP buzz? Of course not. Could you pick Brandon Lowe out of a lineup? Yeah me neither. He’s the only guy on the Rays who hit double digit homers but he’s hitting just .269 on the season and posted a 2.1 bWAR, nearly a full win below some of his compatriots in the league. Tampa is a team effort with great starters and even better relievers that probably won’t go far in the playoffs.

No, this award seems to be coming down between two hitters:
– D.J. LeMahieu of the Yankees, who had a monster batting season and really carried a team that was missing its two best hitters for half the season.
Jose Abreu, who also blew up this year, hitting .317 with 19 homers in 60 games to lead the resurgent and dangerous White Sox into the playoffs for the first time in more than a decade.

I like the Abreu narrative. I’ll go Abreu 1, LeMahieu 2 and Trout getting sympathy 3rd place votes for yet another playoff-less season for the Angels. Cleveland’s leading slugger Jose Ramirez continues to mash in anonymity and should be in the conversation for 3rd here as well.


NL MVP: well, its pretty clear that the three best hitters this year in the league were all in the NL. Freddie Freeman, who has never finished in the top 3 in MVP voting amazingly, blew up this year, posting an OPS figure above 1,100 and really continuing to show why he’s consistently year in, year out one of the most underrated hitters in the league. Meanwhile, Mookie Betts quietly led the league in bWAR with a 3.4 figure in just 60 games (that’s projecting to a 9-win season in a full year), but a good chunk of that WAR is defense-related (which some writers struggle to evaluate). Lastly you have our own Juan Soto, who just put up a 212 OPS+ season (the 26th best single season OPS+ figure EVER), became the youngest player to ever lead the league in BA, and posted 2.9 offensive bWAR in just *47 games* (that’s a 10-win offensive season projected to 162 games, before taking away his defensive correction which drags him down from an overall bWAR perspective). And none of this even recognizes any of the guys in San Diego (specifically Fernando Tatis Jror Manny Machado) who have rocketed that team to respectability quickly.

Honestly, I think the narrative gets Freeman the award, given that he’s never come close to winning it anymore. The award goes Freeman 1, Betts 2 and Soto 3. Maybe Tatis takes 3rd over Soto, penalizing the Nat for his false-positive Covid test that cost him a chunk of the season.


AL Cy Young: I think it has to be Cleveland’s Shane Bieber, who gets the pitching “triple crown” in the AL: he leads the league in Wins (8), ERA (1.63) and Strikeouts (122, which worked out to an astounding 14.2 K/9 rate). His ERA+ figure was 281, good for the 3rd best single season figure … EVER.

I’m not even sure who fills out the rest of the AL bracket: perhaps Toronto’s Hyung-Jin Ryu 2nd for his solid performance in his debut Toronto season, and then Dallas Keuchel, who posted a sub 2.00 ERA for the White Sox.


NL Cy Young: this race is a mess. If it were me, i’d be seriously considering Max Fried of Atlanta, who was basically unhittable all year (7-0, 2.25 ERA), but who got hurt and did not pitch enough innings to even qualify for the ERA title. But Cincinnati’s Trevor Bauer was even more unhittable, posting some astounding numbers this year: just 5-4 as a W/L record but his ERA was a league leading 1.73, he also led the league in WHIP with an amazing 0.795 figure, he posted a 276 ERA+ (the 5th best seasonal figure ever), and he struck out 12.3 K/9. Just amazing.

I think it goes Bauer 1, Fried 2 and then someone like Yu Darvish or Jacob deGrom 3rd, to recognize their excellent seasons as well.


AL Rookie of the Year: who knows: there’s been so many debuts this season, it has been hard to keep track. I’ll go with who I see getting more sportswriters buzz; Kyle Lewis of Seattle.

NL Rookie of the Year: I think the narrative gives it to San Diego’s Jake Croneworth, who exploded out of nowhere to have a solid rookie season at the age of 26. Yes, there’s some eye popping figures coming from Milwaukee rookie reliever Devin Williams (53 strikeouts of 100 batters faced, or a 17.7 K/9 rate, good for an ERA+ of … get this …. 1375!), but he’s a middle reliever. we’ll see how the voters evaluate him.


Managers of the Year: how do you possibly evaluate managers in a short season like this? I default to “manager of the team that surprised people the most and snuck into the playoffs.” Following this theory i’ll go Rick Renteria of the White Sox in the AL(who improved from going 72-89 last year to 35-25 this year) and Don Mattingly of the Marlins in the NL (whose Marlins won just 57 games last year). San Diego’s Jayce Tingler deserves votes here too, as does Cincinnati’s David Bell.

There you have it.

Post publishing Actuals:

For 2020, I got 6 out of 8 predictions right. Missed on one RoY and one Manager.

  • RoYs: Devin Williams and Kyle Lewis.
  • Managers: Don Mattingly and Kevin Cash. Amazingly, the guy i thought would win was *fired* a few days before he was named a finalist. Not since Davey Johnson and the Orioles in 1997 have we seen something like this.
  • Cy Youngs: Trevor Bauer and Shane Bieber
  • MVPs: Jose Abreu and Freddie Freeman

Do we really think there’s going to be a season?

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I alluded to this in comments on the previous thread…. but it is a question worth asking.

Here’s the rough timeline for the 2020 season:

  • Friday, June 26: Transactions freeze ends at noon ET
  • Sunday, June 28: Teams must submit 60-man player pool names by 3 p.m. ET
  • Wednesday, July 1: Teams report to Training Camp 2.0
  • Friday, July 24: New Opening Day
  • Monday, August 31: Trade deadline (usually July 31)
  • Tuesday, September 15: Players must be on big league roster to be eligible for postseason

So, notably, here we sit not even to July 1 yet, and we have the following issues:

MLB has a plan, of course.  And true to MLB fashion, its vague and arguable throughout.  Per the “contingency plan” they can stop the season if:

  1.  if restrictions on travel throughout the country are imposed;
  2. if the season poses “an unreasonable health and safety risk to players or staff to stage those games,”; and
  3. if the competitive integrity of the season is compromised by the number of players who are available.

Those aren’t “or” clauses; they’re “and” clauses.  Meaning all 3 need to take effect.  #2 in particular seems particularly vague enough to basically never be agreed as being true by the 35-40% of this country that still seems to think this pandemic is a joke or a media invention.

I mean, what do you do if the virus hits a team and knocks out a third of their roster?  You can’t possibly ask them to keep playing with a bunch of minor leaguers.  That clearly compromises the integrity of the season.  Meanwhile, we already have players like our own Ryan Zimmerman make pretty cogent arguments that they’re in really tough spots personally to expose themselves to three months of high-risk travel and group settings (If you’re Zimmerman, with an immuno-compromised parent and a small child at home … what would YOU do?)

I dunno.  I think its a frigging mess.  As much as I like baseball and want a season to discuss and analyze, as much as I want to see Max Scherzer vs Gerritt Cole on opening day … part of me thinks we’re gonna get to mid-July and there’s going to be huge roadblocks to play.   We’ll see I suppose.

When our 60-man roster is announced i’ll do another post to talk about it.

 

Post-publishing addition: I completely forgot to add in concerns  about (some of which was mentioned in the comments):

  • our foreign players actually being able to fly HERE
  • our foreign players actually being allowed to fly home.
  • state-based flying restrictions just announced.
  • the fact that the DC mayor has apparently banned large gatherings and the Nats may not be able to train at home.

just so many issues.

Written by Todd Boss

June 28th, 2020 at 8:33 am

So…. what the heck do we talk about?

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Its been a whirlwind few weeks, I tell you.

With today’s announcement that Virginia schools are now closed for the rest of the school year, I thought i’d chime in.  Virginia was not the first state to take such drastic measures, but certainly won’t be the last.

We’ve already had the NCAA shutter all spring sports, including baseball and the far-too-early-but-now-seemingly-sensible cancellation of the College World Series in June.

We’re also basically at a point where its likely that all prep sports around the country will be cancelled as well.

Its amazing.

I’ve covered the CWS for years, covering prep baseball in the DC/MD/VA areas is an annual tradition; not in 2020.  There’s nothing.

My son’s little league?  Probably gone.  He’s in a critical development year in the 7-8yr old range; this will set back his class for years to come.

So, now the question is … when do you think MLB will return?  Will it?  Do you think we’ll be past this crisis by the all Star Break in mid July?

If this stretches into August … and the players need a 4-week spring training … what time is left?  Would you run a season for a month and a half?

There’s all sorts of articles about service time, negotiations ongoing, etc.  To take a simple example: what would you do with Mookie Betts and the Dodgers if the season goes poof?  Both sides have pretty decent arguments:

  • Betts would argue he was blocked from fulfilling his end of the contract and should be a free agent.
  • Dodgers would argue that they traded assets to acquire  him and never got a day of playing time out of him so he should play another season for htem.

What a mess.

Any predictions out there?

My hope is for a mid-July restart, then a two month sprint of a season Aug and Sept (60 games or there abouts), maybe entirely within division, to determine the conventional playoff slat of 5 teams/league.  It will be an entirely unbalanced schedule but so be it.  I’d exactly pro-rate a “year” of service time to the actual days played (meaning if they do a 60-day season that’s the new 182-day “service year prorated so that each 2020 day is worth 3 non-2020 service days).  Yeah the teams like the Dodgers that acquired players get screwed, but they’re also paying pro-rated salaries thanks to natioanl emergency clauses and force majeure clauses in contracts.  Not fair to all players … but everyone takes a hit.

Written by Todd Boss

March 23rd, 2020 at 8:33 pm

All QO-attached players now signed and 2020 Draft Order finalized

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At least we got a 2nd rounder... Photo via wtop.com

At least we got a 2nd rounder… Photo via wtop.com

With the Marcell Ozuna signing earlier this week, the last qualifying offer-attached player has signed, which means (barring any more stripping of draft picks due to brazen and ridiculous sign stealing by un-penalized players) that we’ve also finalized the 2020 draft order.

This is a two-parter post, closing the books on the 2019 off-season Qualifying Offer accounting, and then a quick look at the 2020 draft.


First up; lets look at players who had QOs and see how they fared.

YearPlayerOld TeamNew TeamDraft Pick ForfeitedSigning DateSubsequent contract (w/o options)Money up/down per AAVQ.O. Screw the player?
2019Gerrit ColeHoustonNew York Yankees2-62, 5-160438109yr/$324M18.2No
2019Anthony RendonWashingtonLos Angeles Angels2-48438107yr/$245M17.2No
2019Stephen StrasburgWashingtonWashingtonnone438087yr/$245M17.2No
2019Zack WheelerNew York MetsPhiladelphia2-53438035yr/$118M5.8No
2019Madison BumgarnerSan FranciscoArizona2-54438145yr/$85M-0.8No
2019Josh DonaldsonAtlantaMinnesota3-100438454yr/$92M5.2No
2019Marcel OzunaSt. LouisAtlanta3-99438511yr/$18M0.2Not really
2019Jake OdorizziMinnesotaMinnesotanone437831yr/$17.8M8.3No
2019Will SmithSan FranciscoAtlanta2-67437833yr/$39M-4.8maybe
2019Jose AbreuChicago White SoxChicago White`none437831yr/$17.8M1.8Not really

Ten players had QOs slapped on them to start the off-season.  Seven of those players signed elsewhere, meaning seven players cost their signing teams draft picks.  Now, the sting of those draft pick losses isn’t nearly as bad as it used to be: 2nd rounder at best, and we saw some interesting teams signing players this time around.

Meanwhile, for the first time in a while I don’t really think any one player got completely screwed by having a QO associated with his FA status.  8 of the 10 players with QOs improved their contract AAV.  Madison Bumgarner accepted a slightly less AAV than the QO figure, but signed for 5 years after a down season, so he can’t be disappointed.  Lastly reliever Will Smith may have taken a significantly lower AAV, but as a reliever he’s gotta be happy about guaranteeing 3 years and $39M.  Even Ozuna, who signed just a one year deal, didn’t *lose* money and rids himself of the QO for next season, and reportedly turned down more money and multi-year deals.

Compare this to last year, where two marquee FAs (Craig Kimbrel and Dallas Keuchel) both waited til after the draft in mid-June to sign and both took significantly lower money than they were probably due.

In case I havn’t made it sufficiently clear in the past, I think this QO system is ridiculous, and that the MLBPA expended a ton of its political capital in the last couple of negotiating sessions to modify it, yet it still continues to screw over players while enabling the owners to pursue what now acts like a hard salary cap.  I think it should be completely abolished.  At this point in the game, does it make sense to tie free agency to draft picks?  I don’t think so.   The Nationals netted a mid-second round extra pick (what ends up being 72nd overall) for losing their marquee hitter in Anthony Rendon in his prime; is this a fair compensation?  Of course not.  I’m not sure what the right solution is.


 

So, now that the last QO players has signed, the 2020 draft order is finalized.

Its best seen here at mlb.com: https://www.mlb.com/draft/2020/order , but doesn’t really put in all the details pick by pick.

At the end of the day, 13 Original picks had been lost by teams.  Here’s all 14 and why they were lost (the “xth overall” is the original number, assuming no other lost picks)

  • 1st round, 30th overall:  Forfeited by Houston 1/13/20 for cheating scandal
  • 1st round supplemental, 31st overall: was to be compensation for Minnesota for Jake Odorizzi but he took the QO
  • 2nd round, 49th overall: lost by Los Angeles Angels for signing Anthony Rendon
  • 2nd round, 54th overall: lost by Philadelphia for signing Zach Wheeler
  • 2nd round, 57th overall: lost by Arizona for signing Madison Bumgarner
  • 2nd round, 64th overall: lost by Atlanta for signing Wil Smith
  • 2nd round, 67th overall: lost by New York Yankees for signing Gerrit Cole
  • 2nd round, 69th overall: Forfeited by Houston 1/13/20 for cheating scandal
  • 2nd round supplemental, 76th overall: was to be compensation for Chicago White Sox for Jose Abreu but he took the QO
  • 2nd round supplemental, 82th overall: was to be compensation for Washington for Stephen Strasburg, but he re-signed with the team.
  • 3rd round, 109th overall: lost by Atlanta for the Marcell Ozuna signing
  • 3rd round, 111th overall: lost by Minnesota for the Josh Donaldson signing
  • 5th round, 172nd overall: lost by New York Yankees for signing Gerrit Cole (they lost a 2nd pick b/c they were a luxury tax violator, as the Nats were last  year).

At the end of the day, thanks to all these changed/lost picks, the Nats draft slots gain some spots in the later rounds and will look like this; we have four picks in the top 100 this year, which is great.

  • 1st round: #22 overall
  • 2nd round: #56
  • 2nd round supp: #72
  • 3rd round: #96
  • 4th round: #124
  • 5th round: #154
  • 6th round: #183
  • 7th and on-wards: every 30 afterwards

How does 22nd each round compare as to how the Nats have picked relative to the round over recent years?

  • 2019: 16th each round
  • 2018: 27th each round
  • 2017: 28th each round
  • 2016: 18th each round
  • 2015: 29th each round
  • 2014: 19th each round
  • 2013: 30th each round
  • 2012: 16th each round
  • 2011: 6th reach round
  • 2010 and before: usually pretty high each round 🙂

Since the 1st rounder is always the most important pick in a draft, here’s a quick glance at who was drafted with the 22nd overall pick in the first? over the past few drafts:

  • 2019: Greg Jones, a SS from UNC-W picked by Tampa.  Hit .300 in first pro season in Short-A ball.
  • 2018: Ryan Rolinson, a LHP from Ole Miss picked by Colorado.   full season starting in the Cal league in 2019 with a 4.87 ERA
  • 2017: Logan Warmoth, a SS from UNC picked by Toronto; Promoted to AA mid 2019 season but struggled in Eastern league
  • 2016: Will Craig, 3B from Wake Forest picked by Pittsburgh; played all of 2019 in AAA, hit 20+ homers at multiple levels
  • 2015: Beau Burrows, prep RHP from Texas HS picked by Detroit: top 100 prospect, pitched in AAA as a 22yr old in 2019
  • 2014: Grant Holmes prep RHP from South Carolina HS picked by Los Angeles Dodgers.  Some top 100 buzz, pitched most of 2019 in AA as a 23yr old after missing 2018 with injury
  • 2013: Hunter Harvey, prep RHP from North Carolina HS picked by Baltimore.  Lots of top 100 buzz, missed a year w/ injury, in the mix for MLB spot.
  • 2012: Marcus Stroman, RHP from Duke picked by Toronto.  51-47 as a MLB starter, all-star in 2019.

… so there’s some promise of picking in this range.

 

Astros Cheating Scandal; my two cents

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Altuve's post-season heroics now in serious question. Photo via nytimes.com

Altuve’s post-season heroics now in serious question. Photo via nytimes.com

A pause to talk about the biggest topic of the off-season; the sign stealing scandals currently rocking the Astros, Red Sox and by association Mets franchises.

Summary: the Astros were found to be relaying the catcher’s signs to a monitor just within the clubhouse, and were able to signal their teammates in near real-time in express violation of an edict from the commissioner.  This comes from “whistleblower” Mike Fiers, who was a member of the team and witnessed the situation, which then sparked an investigation and has resulted in:

  • 1 year suspension (and subsequent firing) of Astros GM Jeff Luhnow
  • 1 year suspension (and subsequent firing) of Astros Manager A.J. Hinch
  • Lost of 1st and 2nd round picks in 2020
  • Loss of 1st and 2nd round picks in 2021
  • $5M fine to the organization

Commissioner’s report is here: http://vendettasportsmedia.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/cglrhmlrwwbkacty27l7.pdf

What’s missing here, of course, is any player penalty.  And when it came out in the report that this was a scheme “driven by the players, executed by the players” it becomes a little harder to swallow that not one player has been suspended.  The “banging” evidence is pretty damning: https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/28476354/how-internet-helped-crack-astros-sign-stealing-case kind of covers it and has some examples of internet sleuths who found pretty clear examples of it.

Why no player penalties?  CBA/Union of course.  But also … without hard evidence as to who was doing what, its awfully hard to pin blame on a particular player.  So the MLB essentially offered players immunity to testify so they could get to the bottom of the scandal.  But if there was direct video evidence of a player doing something nefarious and MLB moved to suspend them, it’d be awfully hard for the MLBPA with a straight face to defend the player at this point.

What’s more upsetting is the newer accusations of Astros players taking this a step further and wearing buzzing devices.  I know that MLB issued a statement that they “found no evidence” of this … but the video that’s surfaced and the comments made by the same twitter account that correctly predicted other parts of this scandal are pretty damning:

  • Jose Altuve‘s adamance of not having his jersey ripped off: https://www.12up.com/posts/jose-altuve-dont-rip-my-shirt-off-aroldis-champman-walk-off-hr-alcs-astros-yankees-01dyqxcze7n0
  • Josh Reddick appearing to have a wire taped to his chest; https://ftw.usatoday.com/2020/01/astros-cheating-scandal-buzzers-new-allegations-altuve-yankees
  • Robinson Chirinos‘ having … something … fly off his person and hit Yan Gomes in the mask: https://foxsportsradio.iheart.com/content/2019-11-19-astros-accused-of-using-electronic-buzzers-at-bat-to-signal-certain-pitches

Ok.  By themselves each of these links has arguments against.  Altuve’s screaming not to tear his jersey off isn’t evidence of anything, but its completely incongruous with his tendency to run around shirtless (as a response to the ridiculous “he’s shy” defense offered by his agent Scott Boras).  Reddick’s “confetti” argument … ok, I think I can tell the difference between a piece of plastic and a wire.  And, whatever flew off Chirinos’ bat doesn’t seem to be what he claims (an authentication sticker?  put on a live game bat??  that’s ridiculous).  So … Occam’s Razor here; what the heck is going on?

Let me put this to you a different way.  The Astro’s organization ALREADY had an awful reputation for repugnant behavior and top-level arrogance before this stuff all hit ; if they were so brazen as to bang trash cans … would it really surprise you if it was discovered they’d taken it a step further and used electronic buzzer devices?

I’m no conspiracy theorist; I believe in fact checking and that 99% of the time internet meme-driven stories are BS.  But this one I can’t shake.

I was chatting with my dad recently, and he asked me if this was the biggest scandal since the Steroids news broke.  Part of me wanted to say yes, but mostly I say “no” in that there’s only credible evidence that one or two franchises partook in electronic sign stealing.  It isn’t a wide-spread, hundreds of players across the sport issue like the PED issue was.  So in that sense, I think we’ll see this go away as an isolated set of incidents.  But every franchise has this capability, so It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if we saw more rumors come out.

Do I think the Astros players need to be penalized?  Absolutely.

Do I think the franchise should have its World Series title stripped?  No.  I just can’t see how you do that.  This isn’t the NCAA, which routinely vacates wins and titles … ask a USC fan whether they frigging care that Reggie Bush‘s scandal caused them to vacate their wins while he played.  Who cares.  The WS titles are etched in stone, they’re already paid out and the parades have been held.  Do you really think it makes sense to retroactively award the title to the Dodgers from 2017 because potentially one or two guys knew what pitch was coming?  Can’t say I think that’s a workable solution.

Something tells me we havn’t heard the last of this … but this is how i’m feeling about it right now.  Who said the off-season was boring?  🙂

 

Written by Todd Boss

January 19th, 2020 at 1:05 pm

Useless Facts: Team Payroll versus World Series success

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The powers that be in baseball have long rung the bell of anti-competitiveness w/r/t payroll and success.  In fact, its the salient driving early topic of Michael Lewis‘s seminal book Moneyball ….

Tangent.  Moneyball has its faults, don’t get me wrong.  I may have gone on this rant before, but having recently re-read the book, I was reminded of these issues:

  • A huge part of the Oakland A’s success in the 2002 103 win season was due to their two best hitters (Miguel Tejada and Eric Chavez) being home grown talents that pre-dated Billy Beane‘s tenure as GM.  Tejada was an IFA signed in 1993, Chavez drafted out of HS as the 10th overall pick in 1996.  Beane did not ascend to the job til 1997.
  • An even huger part of the A’s success was due to their rotation; three Ace-level arms under the age of 26 that season in Tim Hudson, Barry Zito and Mark Mulder, none of which was paid more than $875k that year as pre-arb guys … and in fact Zito wasn’t even to arbitration yet.  Combined bWAR for these three: 15.8.
  • The much-ballyhood 2002 draft, which is the subject of most of the book and is the center of the movie’s conflict?  The one where the A’s had 7 first round or supp-1st round picks?  It was an abject failure.  Of the 7 guys they drafted in the 2002 1st round, 3 never made the majors and a 4th (the much-argued-about Alabama C Jeremy Brown) had a MLB career that consisted of 5 games.  A 5th player (Mark Teahen) had a combined career MLB bWAR of 2.6.  The remaining two players (Nick Swisher and Joe Blanton) had long careers of course … but Blanton had just 11.8 career bWAR across 262 games in 13 years, finishing his career with none other than the Washington Nationals and never once making an all-start team or gaining a single Cy Young vote: career ERA+?  95.  I’m sorry, but good drafting teams hit on their first rounders more often than not and the “bar” is MLB regular.  They got perhaps 1 and a half out of 7 picks right in this year, for all of the
  • That whole guitar-playing daughter movie BS?  Non-existent in the book.  Hey I get it; you gotta make Brad Pitt look likeable.  By all accounts in the book, Beane is … not likeable.  There were stories of him screaming in meetings, throwing furniture in the draft room, being incapable of watching the games with others because he got so worked up … to say nothing of his exploits as a professional hitter self-destructing in rage.  Pretty sure these behaviors wouldn’t fly in today’s climate.

I digress.

As pointed in Moneyball … during MLB’s investigation a pesky economist kept asking questions like, “If there’s a direct correlation between payroll and success, then  how does Oakland keep winning with these low payrolls?”  And nobody had a good answer. It got me thinking, in the wake of Washington’s well-funded World Series victory in 2019, what exactly was the history of payrolls to WS wins.  Well, here it is in tabular format.

Yearteampayrollhighlowmedianpayroll ranknotes
2019Washington197236601264
2018Boston23323365134133m more than #2
2017Houston124m2416313917Result of bottoming out strategy in 2013
2016Chicago Cubs171m250631316
2015Kansas City112m2826911817LA = 282; just crazy
2014San Francisco149m236451077
2013Boston150m22926934Houston = 26m
2012San Francisco131m21351946
2011St. Louis109m207399210
2010San Francisco97m212378411
2009New York Yankees203m2033781150M more than #2
2008Philadelphia96m213257813Miami = 25
2007Boston147m19525872
2006St. Louis89m201168311Miami = 16
2005Chicago White Sox75m209306713
2004Boston128m18527632
2003Florida47m153196925TB = 19
2002Anaheim61m126346115
2001Arizona85m11123648
2000New York Yankees92m92165815m more than #2
1999New York Yankees91m111m more than #2
1998New York Yankees73m2
1997Florida52m5
1996New York Yankees61m16m more than #2
1995Atlanta47m4

Some thoughts looking at 2019 and going backwards:

  • 17 of the 25 WS winners since divisional play started had payrolls in the top 10 of the league
  • 14 of these 25 winners were top 5.
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have spent an amazing amount of money to win nothing over the past 5-6 years.   They’re the “high” payroll for most of this decade, peaking at $282M in 2015.
  • The Nats just won the WS with the 4th largest payroll in the game, basically at the top of the luxury tax line.
  • Boston won it last year with easily the highest payroll in the game, fully $33M more than the 2nd highest payroll. Now that’s buying a title!
  • Houston’s 2017 title comes on the back of them absolutely bottoming out in 2013 and having successive 110+ loss seasons, so its status as an outlier doesn’t exactly hold water.
  • You have to go back to Kansas City’s 2015 run to see our first outlier … and it should be noted that Kansas City completely bottomed out their farm system to achieve those two years of success, immediately dropped to a .500 win team the year after and now have two straight 100+ loss seasons AND have by some accounts one of the worst farms in the game.
  • Before that you’re in the 2010-11 time-frame, where a 90-win St.Louis team with the 11th highest payroll went on a magical run to take out a bunch of teams with better records.
  • The 2008 Phillies were only the 13th ranked payroll; they were driven by career years of home-grown stars still confined by arbitration; within a couple of years Philly would be at the top of the league payroll list too.
  • Clearly 2003 Florida is the huge outlier; the only team with a payroll not at least in the top half of the game to take a series.  And I think we all know about that year…. i’m sure Dusty Baker and Steve Bartman remember it well.

So, does this data tell us anything?   Is it correlation or causation?  Or coincidence?

Race to the Bottom; 2019 Edition

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Casey Mize was Detroit's 2018 1-1 pick; who will join him next June?  Photo d1baseball.com

Casey Mize was Detroit’s 2018 1-1 pick; who will join him next June? Photo d1baseball.com

So, with a week to go, who’s in the lead for the #1 overall draft pick/largest bonus pool for the 2020 draft?

http://www.tankathon.com/mlb

I love that there’s an official “Tanking” page now tracking this.

With a week to go, here’s how we stack up (records as of 9/24/19).  There’s really only four teams to discuss; there’s a 7 game gap to the 5th worst team right now.

  1. Detroit: 46-109, projecting to 48-114.  Remaining Schedule: home to Min, away to CWS.  Likely getting swept by Minnesota, who is pushing for playoff positioning but may get some wins against CWS.
  2. Baltimore: 51-106, projecting to 53-109.  Remaining schedule: away to Tor, away to Bos.  may end up picking up a couple of wins here since all remaining teams also playing out the stretch.
  3. Miami: 55-101, projecting to 57-105.  Remaining schedule: away to NYM, away to Phi.  May very well lose out, given that these two teams are finishing strong.  but seems locked into 3rd spot.
  4. Kansas City: 57-100, projecting to 59-103.  Remaining schedule: home to Atl, home to Minn.  hosting all playoff teams still pushing, might lose out.

So, here’s the top 4 of next year’s draft.  At this point, it seems pretty likely that this will be the tankathon finish too.  Detroit is locked in for #1, Baltimore is pretty well locked into #2.  We might see a flip between 3 and 4 but doubtful since both teams are playing motivated squads to finish up.

So, what’s the prize of the 2020 draft?  Well, unlike 2019, when the conesnsus 1-1 overall pick Adley Rutschmann was pretty well established even at this early date, the 2020 draft isn’t consensus for #1 overall yet.   But the top few picks likely will include names from this list:

College top candidates for 2020

  • Spencer Torkelson, 1B/LF Arizona State.   3rd team AA PG/Rawlings 2018 as a freshman.   2nd team d1baseball AA 2018.  2018 Collegiate USA team as freshman.  Hit 25 homers as a freshman, 22 homers as sophomore.  2nd team d1baseball.com AA as sophomore.  2nd team NCBWA AA as sophomore.   2nd team BA AA 2019 as sophomore.  2019 Collegiate National team
  • Emerson Hancock, RHP Georgia.  High-90s fastball, 3-pitch guy, great sophomore numbers for #3 team in the land.  2nd team d1baseball.com AA 2019 as sophomore.  2nd team NCBWA AA as sophomore.  2nd team BA AA 2019 as sophomore
  • Austin Martin, 2b/ss/3B Vanderbilt.  Slashed .410/.502/.603 as a sophomore w/ speed.  1st team d1baseball.com AA 2019 as sophomore.  Plays 6 positions, should be primary SS in 2020.  1st team BA AA 2019 as sophomore.  2019 Collegiate National team

Or, if a prep player goes:

  • Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF (CF) Harvard-Westlake HS, CA.  top all-around prep position player in draft.   Vanderbilt commit.  3rd team Baseball america AA in 2019 as junior.  Maxpreps 2nd team AA as junior
  • Blaze Jordan, 1B/3B DeSoto Central High School (Southaven, Mississippi).  Re-classified/graduating early.   Mississippi State commit
  • Dylan Crews, OF Lake Mary HS (Fla).  LSU commit.  PG has him as #2 prep player in class, long-time member of US national teams.

The last time Detroit picked 1st overall, they got a guy in Casey Mize in 2018 who dominated high-A in 6 starts to begin the 2019 season, then threw a no-hitter in his AA debut.  He finished off AA this year with solid numbers for a 22 yr old, and could be featuring in the Detroit rotation mid-next season … that is if the team doesn’t play service time manipulation games.

 

 

Written by Todd Boss

September 24th, 2019 at 12:43 pm

Prep Baseball Coverage 2019: Player of the Year Lists

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Last post covering local baseball for 2019; this one tries to summarize all the various “Player of the Year” announcements from various shops, both local and national.

I kind of ran out of gas on this one; fighting through a dozen different paywalls and I never could find the official announcements of Virginia regional all-player lists.   But this is still a pretty good summary of the various POTY lists.

 


 

Individual Player Accolades Announced

In addition to being playoff-baseball time, this is also the time of the year that we start to see player awards.  I’ll put these in as they publish, but we won’t expect most of these until the end of June.

National Lists and State breakouts as available.

  • Gatorade Player of the year awards.  National POTY was Bobby Witt Jr., drafted 2nd overall in the 2019 baseball draft.
    • Maryland:  Jack Bulger, Jr. C from DeMatha.  Early commit to Vanderbilt.
    • Washington DCCollin Bosley-Smith, Jr. RHP from Wilson.   Early commit to Duke.
    • VirginiaNate Savino, Jr. LHP from Potomac Falls.  Early commit to UVA.
  • MaxPreps High School All-AmericansBobby Witt Jr. National POTY.   Local players: Jack Bulger (DeMatha), Lyle Miller-Green, RHP/1B from Lake Braddock named to 2nd team.
  • Baseball America High School All-Americans: no POTY declared.  No local players on 1st, 2nd or 3rd teams.
  • USA Today/American Family All-USA teamsBobby Witt Jr. National POTY.  Local players: Jack Bulger (DeMatha) named to 1st team, Brett Cook from Benedictine 2nd team.  Jamari Baylor HM.
  • American Baseball Coaches Association (ABCA)/Rawlings 2019 High School All AmericansBobby Witt named POTY.  local players Jack Bulger C DeMatha and Joe Clancy RHP Westfields named to 3rd team.
  • Collegiate Baseball High School All-AmericansBobby Witt Jr. National POTY.   Local players on 1st team: Jose Torres, SS Calvert Hall HS in Baltimore (NC State commit.).  2nd team: Jack Bulger (DeMatha), Parker Landwehr C Calvert Hall (Boston College commit).
  • Perfectgame.org/Rawlings All-Americans: (unclear if they’re still doing these lists).
    • Maryland:
    • Washington DC:
    • Virginia:
  • PrepBaseballReport; Brett Bady national POTY.  12th overall pick by NY Mets.
    • All Maryland TeamRyan Calvert, RHP/1B from LaPlata HS POTY as a junior.
    • All Virginia/DC Team:  Lyle Miller-Green, RHP/1B from Lake Braddock POTY.  George Mason commit.

 

DC/MD/VA Local

  • Washington Post All-Met team 2019Lyle Miller-Green, RHP/1B from Lake Braddock POTY.  George Mason commit.
  • The Baltimore Sun’s All-Metro TeamJose Torres, SS Calvert Hall HS in Baltimore.  NC State commit.
  • Richmond Times-Dispatch All-Metro Team: (behind a paywall)
  • Virginian Pilot All-Tidewater teamMason Dunaway, SS Hickory is POTY.  JMU commit.
  • Virginia Class 6 All Region Teams
    • Region A (Tidewater) All Regional team:
    • Region B (Richmond) All Regional team:
    • Region C (Northern VA, inner suburbs) All-Regional teamLyle Miller-Green, RHP/1B from Lake Braddock POTY.  George Mason commit.
    • Region D (Northern VA, Western Suburbs) All Regional teamZach Agnos, RHP from Battlefield HS POTY.  ECU commit like his brother ahead of him.
  • Virginia Class 5 All Region Teams
    • Region A (Tidewater area) All-Regional team:
    • Region B (Richmond) All Regional team:
    • Region C (Northern VA) All Regional teamBen Williamson, SS Freedom-South Riding.  William & Mary commit.
    • Region D (Northwest and Western VA) All Regional teamDrew Harlow, RHP/SS Halifax county POTY.  Undecided/no commit as of 6/8/19
  • Virginia Class 4 All Region Teams
    • Region A (Tidewater area) All-Regional team:
    • Region B (Richmond) All Regional team:
    • Region C (Northern VA) All Regional teamJoe Vogatsky, jr RHP/3B from Kettle Run HS POTY.   early commit to JMU.
    • Region D (Northwest and Western VA) All Regional team:
  • Other Virginia All-Regional teams: harder to come by:
    • Class 3 Region B (Culpepper/Warrenton area) All Regional teamJake (Jakob) Dudley, 1B/3B from Culpeper County HS is POTY.  No college listed.
    • Class 2 Region B (NorthWest VA) all Region Team:  T.R. Williams, Sophomore RHP from Page County POTY.
  • Northern Virginia All-District teams:
  • NovaBaseballMagazine Nova Nine top 100 listJoey Kamide‘s top 100 players from the 85 high schools in the NoVa coverage area.
  • NovaBaseballMagazine Nova Nine:  Lyle Miller-Green, RHP/1B from Lake Braddock POTY.  George Mason commit.
  • VHSL All-State Teams: all 6 teams available from this link.
    • 6-A: Lyle Miller-Green, RHP/1B from Lake Braddock POTY.  George Mason commit.
    • 5-A: Michael Tolson RHP/oF from Stafford POTY.   Western Carolina U commit.
    • 4-A: Quade Tomlin, SS jr from Liberty Christian Academy POTY.  Liberty U commit.
    • 3-A: Jacob Critzer, C Fluvana County HS POTY.    No college commitment known.
    • 2-A: Andrew Potojecki, RHP Chatham HS (Danville) POTY.  Longwood College commit.
    • 1-A: Matthew Kleinfelter, RHP Lancaster HS POTY.   JMU commit.
  • VISAA’s All-State teams
    • Division III All State Team: Tanner Schobel, SS Walsingham Academy  (Williamsburg) POTY as Junior.  Early Virginia Tech commit.
    • Division II All State Team: Jeremy Wagner, OF/RHP from the Miller School (Albemarle) POTY as Junior.  Early Austin Peay commit.
    • Division I All State Team: Aiden Kuhle, RHP/1B from Cape Henry Collegiate (Virginia Beach) POTY.  Roanoke College commit.
  • Maryland All-MIAA All-State teams:
    • MIAA A division: behind a paywall
    • MIAA B division: behind a paywall
    • MIAA C division: behind a paywall
  • Maryland State Association of Baseball Coaches (MSABC) All-Maryland teams: four regional all-star teams picked for exhibitions.
  • Maryland Brooks Robinson All-Star game rosters
  • Anne-Arundel County All-Baseball team: unknown
  • Montgomery County All-Baseball Team: unknown
  • All Baltimore-City Baseball team: behind a paywall
  • All Fredericksburg Baseball team:  Michael Tolson RHP/oF from Stafford POTY.   Western Carolina U commit.
  • All WCAC: unknown
  • All IAC: unknown
  • All MAC: unknown

If I missed an award, or if you know of something I don’t, don’t hesitate to post.

 


Past awards that no longer seem to be in existence:

  • Louisville Slugger All-Americans: last awarded in 2016.
  • National High School Coaches Association (NHSCA) POTY: last awarded in 2017.
  • Under Armor All-Americans: perhaps there used to be selections, but now there’d just a game mid-July of mostly rising senior all stars.
  • USA Today/American Family All-State Teams and POTYs: stopped doing state-level all-state baseball teams for 2019.