I got a text from an old friend who I rarely chat with yesterday while out at dinner; Travis Sykora, seemingly out of nowhere, has to have Tommy John surgery.
What a dagger.
Sykora, of course, is our top prospect (or perhaps 2nd best with the addition of Eli Willits, who most prospect shops were installing above Sykora even before this news) and was a key near-term building block that this team could point to as a contributor that could help turn the tide on this 5-6 year “rebuilding” era. Now he’s suffered a mid-season UCL injury, which as we’ve now seen recently with Cavalli, Bennett, and Grey basically turns into a 1.5 season loss (the rest of this season and all of next).
My question is this: based on this injury, the team’s current form, the recent axing of the long-time GM, and the 2025 HS-heavy draft … are we about to see a sell-off and another bottoming out?
More and More I think the answer is yes.
The 2025 draft did not get one marquee player who can help this team in the near term; we could have drafted a polished college starter in Anderson and had him on the fast track to the MLB rotation by 2027, but we didn’t; instead we blew all our money on 17=18yr olds who might show up by next decade. Grey is out until next spring. Cavalli was out for nearly 2 years and is not looking like he’s come back in AAA. We’ve just lost Sykora. Susana has a sprained UCL now and is trying to come back, but he seems like a ticking time bomb. We lost Herz to TJ. Crews remains out (and, not for nothing hasn’t exploded onto the MLB scene).
It’s just too many things to work around, not if you’re not willing to spend money.
So what would this look like? A “sell-off?” Well; it would mean MacKenzie Gore out the door. He’s still got two years of control (as does Garcia, Grey, Adams, and Thompson) but he’s the prize. But he’s the one teams have to be asking about right now. If you’re not going to even try to compete for 3 more years, and you have a top-end arm in a league starved for them, and he’s represented by Boras (which means he’s never resigning), then … cash in. Cash in and sell high.
The team is 20 games under .500; what’s the point of a near Ace starter anymore? Trade him to a team with a thousand prospects, get a haul, and go from there.
WASHINGTON, DC – JULY 21: Amed Rosario #13 of the Washington Nationals runs to first base against the Cincinnati Reds at Nationals Park on July 21, 2025 in Washington, DC. (Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images)
Note: I wrote this mostly on July 9th, during a flurry of writing about the ASG, Home run derby, draft content, new prospect lists, etc. Yesterday, thanks to my forgetting to publish it, we already made a trade, so i’ve gotta get this going.
Thanks to an awful month of June, as the team barrels towards the end of July’s trade deadline, we sit with an 42-62 record, good for the 2nd worst in the National League (behind only the record breaking Colorado Rockies) and 3rd-worst in all of baseball (which won’t matter for the 2026 draft, since we’ll be kicked out of the top 10 regardless thanks to our being a “big market” team … you know, big market team that has no TV deal and spends like its based in Toledo despite being owned by a family with an estimated net worth of $6.4Billion … but i’m digressing). Our penny-pinching owner has whacked his long-time GM, who has proven quite adept at trades, and now we enter the 2025 trade bonanza with few assets other teams are targeting.
That rosy analysis notwithstanding, here’s what our trade deadline could look like.
Legit Trade Assets: Kyle Finnegan
When looking at MLB-wide trade candidate lists, the sole player we have who routinely appears on these lists is our closer, Finnegan. He’s on a one-year deal, he’s pitched very well (167 ERA+), and he’s just the kind of guy who can net a decent prospect for a playoff-chasing team looking for more bullpen help (which, lets be honest, is all of them).
Exceeeeeept…. just like last year, Finnegan has managed to engineer the destruction of his trade value right as teams started to look at him. He Blew up in successive appearances on 7/12 and again 7/18, which together raised his season ERA from 2.36 to 4.37. Awesome. he’s gone from maybe fetching a top-15 prospect to maybe fetching a couple of rookie league lottery tickets.
Likely return: couple of low-end lottery ticket prospects.
FA-to-be Starters: Mike Soroka
Soroka’s injury and underperformance makes it very unlikely he gets moved. He’s been hurt, and hasn’t pitched great even if his FIP flatters his ERA. But, if they can move him and pay the rest of his salary, maybe we can get a low-ranked/high-risk prospect, like an arm on someone’s Low-A team who’s injured. Soroka in theory can start or pitch in relief, but one of his most likely suitors (his old team Atlanta) is also out of the playoff race and are sellers.
Likely return here: nothing
FA-to-be Relievers: Law, Salazar, Chafin, Luis Garcia.
We’ve already released multiple one-year FA relievers for underperformance (Lopez, Sims, Poche), an indictment of now-departed Rizzo’s latest attempt to build a bullpen via retread FAs. Among those left, Law is done for the season with injury, Salazar has sucked, Chafin has been decent, and Garcia just got signed. I can’t see getting anything for anyone of these guys, maybe Chafin if someone wants a veteran lefty.
Likely return here: nothing
FA-to-be Position players: Bell, Rosario, DeJong
Bell and DeJong have been major disappointments from a “give a veteran a pillow contract and hope they perform enough to give us something tangible at the trade deadline” perspective. Rosario has been solid at the plate and can play basically anywhere on the field, but frankly the market for utility guy in a league where every team has 3-4 such guys stashed in AAA seems weak.
Update: I was completely wrong about Rosario’s value, and we ended up flipping him for the Yankees’ 20th ranked prospect Beeker and a solid-hitting DSL outfielder named Martinez. That’s more than I could have hoped for.
likely return here: whatever we can get.
FAs after 2026: Lowe, Williams
Williams hurt, again, and besides that has sucked and is now on the 60-day likely done for the season. Lowe is hovering around 100 OPS+ with some power but probably isn’t really raising anyone’s eyebrows for a 1B/DH replacement. He has one more Arb year next winter, is already at $10M and frankly could be a non-tender candidate if he sticks around. Could he get moved? Maybe, if we send the cash, but it’s worth remembering he was traded for a middle reliever last off-season, so the odds of getting much for him seems low.
Likely return here: nothing.
The Destroy the Fanbase confidence option: MacKenzie Gore
He’s at just $2.8M this year and has two more arb years. He will be a long shot to even get to $10M next off-season even if he finishes high in Cy Young voting, and as a pre-arb healthy Ace-level starter he would net a pretty penny. But … as we’ve discussed, rebuilding teams don’t frigging trade the cornerstone pieces of the damn rebuild. Gore is the kind of player you use to get back into respectability, not trade for assets that won’t come due for another 4 years.
I wrote all of that on July 9th before this team fired its GM and drafted four HS draftees who basically won’t appear before 2030, and I now openly question where we are as a franchise. Ownership isn’t spending money, and we’re drafting 17yr olds. I now wonder if the entire management structure is of the belief that this “rebuild” is now a failure and if we’re not preparing for a massive sell-off of our current assets who will be FAs before we can compete again. Gore is 1-A on this list, a Boras client (meaning he won’t sign an extension) who is a FA in two years. He’s healthy now, he’s in demand now, and while I don’t think he’s netting a Soto-esque package if someone offered us three legit prospects for him right now, does this team say no?
All our pre-Arb players: the rest of the team fits in here.
I see no reason to trade someone like Henry, or Wood, or Abrams, or Young, or anyone of this ilk. We want to leverage these guys while they’re still cheap and see if they turn into all stars.
Prediction? We get what we got for Rosario, a lottery ticket for Finnegan, and maybe move one other guy for a nothing-burger prospect. It’s just where we are; nothing left to cash in, and our off-season FAs have really disappointed.
With so many “senior signs” this year (five), I thought it’d be interesting to see our history with these guys and how they’ve turned out.
For definition purposes, a “Senior Sign” is a College Senior or a college player with no remaining eligibility who is drafted usually in the 8th, 9th, or 10th round entirely to save bonus dollars on their pick to allocate that money elsewhere in the draft. Usually these players sign for $10k these days, though in the early days we often gave them $25-$30k. The deck is already stacked against these guys: the team has almost zero bonus dollars invested in them, they’re already “old” the moment they arrive in Florida, and they have to be doubly as good as a guy with even a slot bonus in order to stick around.
Not only that, but (as a senior sign himself once told me), these guys generally have finished four years of college, may even have a degree, and find themselves at 22 or even 23 heading to a spring training facility full of 18-19 yr olds coming over from the DSL who barely speak English, are just as good but 4 years younger, and who are killing themselves for a few hundred dollars a week. These guys may say to themselves, “man, these guys are just as good as me but 4 years younger and with a ton more bonus dollars” and just hang ’em up.
The concept of these senior draftee draft picks in the back half of the top 10 rounds really only begun existing and being important starting with the draft slotting/bonus cap timeframe, which was implemented starting with the 2012 draft. So, we’ll go through these Senior signs starting with the 2012 class.
2012:
Craig Manuel, C. 10th round $25k from Rice. Played for 4 years, made it to AA as a mostly backup catcher. had some local ties (born in Rockville MD). Decent career.
Derek Self, RHP Reliever 9th round $25k from Louisville. Played out his entire 6-year ML contract with us, made it to AAA as a solid middle reliever. That’s a great outcome.
2013:
David Napoli, RHP reliever 8th round $15k from Tulane. Couldn’t make the jump to High-A released after three seasons.
Jake Joyce, RHP reliever 9th round $15k from Va Tech. Got one season in Short-A bullpen, released. This is basically the floor for a senior sign; one season in the pros, then cut.
Brennan Middleton, SS 10th round $15k sign from Tulane. Two years in Low-A, released.
2014:
Matthew Page, OF 10th round $30k from Oklahoma Baptist: Hung around for four years, got to High-A before released.
2015:
David Kerian, 1B 9th round $25k from Illinois: released from Short-A after two seasons in Auburn.
Taylor Guilbeau, LHP 10th round $25k from Alabama: turned into a decently effective LHP reliever for years, flipped to Seattle to help acquire Hunter Strickland in 2019. Got called up to Seattle’s MLB team, then got hurt. Waived, claimed by AZ, outrighted in 2021, then released. Shoulder injuries are brutal sometimes. First of our Sr. Signs to make the majors, though not with us.
2016:
Joey Harris, C 9th rounder $10k from Gonzaga: played a year in rookie ball, got hurt and missed all of 2017, then released at the end of 2018 from low-A.
Paul Panaccionne, SS 10th rounder $10k from Grand Canyon. played parts of 3 seasons and retired.
2017:
Jared Brasher, RHP 8th rounder $10k from Samford: a weird one: he was in his 3rd season in Low-A and was pitching decently mid 2019 season when he was suddenly released. He had a sub 3.00 ERA but a lot of walks just prior to being released. I wonder if this was off-the-field related.
2018:
Cropley, Tyler, C 8th rounder 10k from Iowa; we released him in 2020, but he got picked up by Kansas City and made it to AAA with them, even getting an NRI to MLB camp in 2024. Released ST 2024. Not a bad career.
Driskill, Tanner, RHP 9th 10k from Lamar; missed two full years to injury and Covid, then got shelled in 2021 and was released.
Shaddy, Carson, 2b 10th rounder 10k from Arkansas-Fayetteville. had one short-A season then retired the next spring.
2019:
Pratt, Andrew, C, 10th round $10k from Lubbock Christian: missed Covid year, played in 2021 at HighA, and was probably released at the end of the 2021 season. MILB.com never recorded his official release and has him officially still active.
2020:
Lindsly, Brady, 5th round $10k Ca signing from Oklahoma: Ironic that we signed Cavalli’s college catcher to an underslot deal so we could pay him overslot the same year. But, Lindsly is active to this day, performing classic org-guy backup catcher duties with two NRIs the last two seasons to help with Spring Training catcher duty. He’s 27 now, but still has one more year before hitting 6years in the org.
2021:
None: we didn’t have a single throw-away signing this year, likely because of the Covid year. We did sign a slew of college “seniors,” but they all likely had another year of eligibility due to the lost season.
2022:
Stehly, Murphy, 10th round 3B from Texas $10k: As we speak, the starting 3B in AA Harrisburg (thought he just hit the DL) and is slashing .328/.417/.500 there this year. Impressive. Might be one of our best Sr. Signs yet.
2023:
Our first real major foray into draft dollar manipulation, as we needed to find an extra $1.5M or so to sign Sykora. So we punted on 5 picks and got him. Looking like a great decision so far, at least as far as Sykora’s development goes.
Dugas, Gavin, 6th round 2B from LSU $20k; destroyed low-A pitching in 2024, hasn’t been able to keep it going in High-A but still active.
Snell, Ryan, 7th round C from Lamar $20k; barely played in rookie league in 2023, then retired mid 2024 before taking the field.
Simpson, Jared*, 8th round LHP from Iowa $20k: missed almost all of 2024 with injury, but has been a decent middle reliever for High-A this season. Needs to cut down on walks.
Schultz, Thomas, 9th round RHP from Vanderbilt $20k; has earned two promotions in 2025 and is now in AA bullpen.
Glasser, Phillip*, 10th round SS/2B from Indiana $20k. Promoted twice in 2024, now hitting .300 starting in AA as a “play anywhere” kind of guy (SS, 2B, LF, etc).
2024:
The Nats took these draft bonuses to a new low, paying two guys just $2k. I mean, did that even cover their flight to Florida?
Ross, Jackson, 3B 9th rounder from Ole Miss $2k: Bashed his way out of Low-A in a month, struggling in High-A as we speak.
Johnson, Luke, RHP 10th rounder from UMBC: $2k. Weird usage for Johnson so far; he’s 23 and is basically unhittable in the FCL, was promoted for a spot start (4ip, 2h, 0r) and then was sent back down. He’s just been called back to Low-A to presumably take a spot in the rotation, so we’ll see what he’s got.
2025:
Taking a page out of 2023, we have five senior signs to shake out enough cash to sign three prep kids to overslot deals. Technically Boston Smith getting $50k likely disqualifies him based on my own criteria, but it was still a huge haircut off his $386k slot.
Boston Smith, C/OF from Wright State $50k; some scouts liked him, and the $50k versus the $5-$10k figure may have factored in here; we probably were competing with other teams looking at him as a senior sign and threw some extra dollars here.
So, who has been the best? Probably Guilbeau, the only guy on this list to make the Majors.
The best career might be Derek Self, playing out his entire ML contract. Cropley made it to AAA for another team. Lindsley has been in AAA for a couple years now. Perhaps Stehly has the best shot right now. Clearly the deck is stacked against them.
Your new #1 Nationals prospect, Eli Willits. Photo via MLBpipeline/Getty Images
It did not take Baseball America long to provide an updated top 30 for the Washington Nationals (and the rest of the league) post Draft, and I was surprised to see where our 1-1 pick Willits ended up. That would be atop our system rankings.
BA also took the opportunity to “graduate” a few guys and to tweak some of the rankings for players who have struggled badly this year (but, they did not seem to tweak rankings for those who have over-performed this round). They did an early June release of rankings, and now a mid July, so we have a six week differential of ranks that I’ll discuss below.
Here’s the top 30, plus a few in the 31-35 range that were likely “pushed down” by our 2025 top draft picks.
Rank
First Name
Last Name
Position
1
Eli
Willits
SS
2
Travis
Sykora
RHP (Starter)
3
Jarlin
Susana
RHP (Starter)
4
Brady
House
SS/3B
5
Alex
Clemmey
LHP (Starter)
6
Luke
Dickerson
SS/CF
7
Daylen
Lile
OF (CF)
8
Ethan
Petry
1B/OF
9
Coy
James
SS
10
Cade
Cavalli
RHP (Starter)
11
Seaver
King
SS
12
Caleb
Lomavita
C
13
Landon
Harmon
RHP
14
Robert
Hassell III
OF (CF)
15
Jake
Bennett
LHP (Starter)
16
Yohandy
Morales
3B
17
Angel
Feliz
3B/SS
18
Tyler
Stuart
RHP (Starter)
19
Miguel
Sime Jr.
RHP
20
Brayan
Cortesia
SS
21
Jackson
Kent
LHP (Starter)
22
Daniel
Hernandez
C
23
Andry
Lara
RHP (Starter)
24
Yoel
Tejada Jr.
RHP (Starter)
25
Garcia
Davian
RHP (Starter)
26
Cornelio
Riley
RHP (Starter)
27
Jorgelys
Mota
SS
28
Kevin
Bazzell
C/3B
29
Sam
Peterson
OF (CF)
30
Sir Jamison
Jones
CA
31
Cayden
Wallace
2B/3B
32
Andrew
Pinckney
OF (Corner)
33
Elijah
Green
OF (CF)
34
Cristian
Vaquero
OF (CF)
35
Robert
Cranz
RHP (Reliever)
Now for some observations and commentary.
Note: not all five of these new 2025 draft picks have signed as of this writing. I think they will sign because its 2025 and players in the top 10 don’t get drafted unless they’re going to sign, but it does bear mentioning that not all of these players are officially on the team as of this writing on 7/21/25. This mostly applies to 5th rounder James, who seems like he’s a better prospect than two of the prep kids drafted ahead of him, and I wonder if the bonus dollars are there.
Willits enters BA’s list at 1-1, above Sykora. This is notable because Sykora was ranked 28th the last time that BA did an overall Minor League top 100 list in early July. So that also means Willits is not only starting in BA’s top 100 list for the entirety of the minors, he’s starting it likely in the 20-25 range. That’s heady territory. Crews started his pro career ranked #4 on BA’s July 2023 post draft list for some context.
2025 2nd Rounder Ethan Petry pops in at #8 and 5th rounder Coy James at #9. These two slot in right ahead of Cavalli, King, and Lomavita. Interesting how our 2025 picks start out ahead of our two top 2024 picks (Dickerson notwithstanding of course).
The more i’m reading about this James guy, the more I’m thinking this 5th rounder is a massive steal.
Landon Harmon comes in at #13, and our last big-time bonus guy from this draft Miguel Sime comes in at #19. That seems about right for untested/high risk Prep RHPs.
Those are the new guys. How about changes to existing player ranks relative to where they were last month, and accounting for the five new guys slotting in? Here’s what’s happened in the last 6 weeks:
Players ranked 2-7 have not changed since June. Should they? Yeah probably: House is starting in the majors but is behind Susana, who has missed two months. Clemmey and Dickerson have really impressed. Lile made it to the show but hasn’t stuck in the starting lineup. Would you adjust these guys up or down a bit? Yes.
All the players ranked around the five new names have mostly stayed ranked the same … except for those we’re about to talk about.
Wallace has taken a massive nosedive: he was #16 six weeks ago and is now out of the top 30 entirely. Talk about a weird turn of events for him so far this season.
Same with Bazzell: he’s been dropped more than 10 spots in the last two months.
Minor slotting changes for Stuart (still on the DL) and Cortesia, who they inexplicably DROPPED a slot relative to his ranking in June despite him hitting .400 for the first month of the DSL. I mean, what else does the guy have to do?
Same with Cornelio; he’s dropped relative to his ranking 6 weeks ago. Um, explain that to me like i’m a 5 year old. in 2025, Cornelio made 7 starts with a 3.03 ERA in High-A, got promoted, and has IMPROVED his numbers in AA. He’s dominating there, with a 2.32 ERA, a 1.01 whip, a .169 BAA. I mean, how does this guy get dropped down in relative rankings, even if you’re not doing a full re-evaluation?
Sam Peterson and Sir Jamison Jones get ranked for the first time at #29 and #30.
The five guys now pushed outside of the top 30, if I just take the five missing names from June’s rankings, are in order Wallace, Pinckney, Green, Vaquero, and Cranz. Can’t really complain about any of these five now being outside the top 30, based on who got added and how they’ve played in 2025.
Maaaaaybe you can complain about Cranz, who’s got a 2.02 ERA this season and has crushed it, albeit in low-A as a 22yr old. But hey, he’s a reliever. I don’t think relievers, backup catchers, or utility infielders belong in the top 30 of any system, but that’s just me.
Who’s missing?
We’ve now apparently graduated Lord, Henry, and Rutledge due to mostly service time (Lord has more than the 50 ip, while Henry & Rutledge will soon enough). They were ranked 14, 15, and in the mid-30s in June.
No Victor Hurtado, our $2.8M bonus baby from the 2023 IFA class, who continues to struggle repeating the DSL as an 18 yr old, even if Fangraphs loves him (and has him #15 in the system).
No Armando Cruz, our $3.9M bonus baby from the 2021 IFA class either. At some point production talks, not dollars.
Rafael Ramirez Jr has been on the edges of top 30s since his acquisition, but has been hurt all year.
No Kevin Made, who hit .352 in June and (so far) .088 in July.
No Nasim Nunez, what ever you think of this guy. A glove can only take you so far (he’s hitting .196 in AAA this year).
How will my Hot Take on Willits age? Remains to be seen. Photo via MLB Photos/Getty Images
Ahead of the 2025 draft, which has no real consensus for 1-1 and the possibility of a risky HS kid taking at the top, I thought it’d be fun to document my own personal reactions to our 1-1 picks, in the immediate aftermath, then see how my writing aged. When, as it turned out, we DID take a risky HS kid at the top (but not the one most of us thought), I wasn’t aghast necessarily, but surprised. And it got me thinking: I’m on record writing these instant reactions for years; how have my “hot takes” aged?
So, here’s a fun “hindsight is 20/20” look at my instant reactions to see if I was spot on or way off.
If we had multiple 1st rounders I’ll just talk about the first one (only comes up once with the Kieboom/Dunning draft), and in years we lost a pick I’ll discuss why and opine on those moves too (happened twice, in 2013 and 2015, and for now won’t happen again with new CBA rules).
Useful links for this read: Nats Draft Tracker (all our picks as a franchise with signing bonuses since 2005), and the Baseball-Reference.com Draft Database link right to Nats 1st rounders.
2025: Eli Willits, Prep SS from Oklahoma HS. 1st overall, bonus tbd. My instant reaction from earlier this week: I think its safe to say I would have preferred Kade Anderson as a closer-to-the-majors player, as opposed to a 17yr old we won’t see for years.
2024: Seaver King, SS, Wake Forest. 10th overall, $5.1M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction July 2024. My instant reaction at the time summarized: this was a surprise, under-slot pick, thought they should have taken someone else, and felt this was a reach (most shops had him ranked in the 17-19 range). I wanted them to take Branden Montgomery (who went 2 picks later) … who of course is slashing .345/.433/.582 in his pro debut in Kannapolis (perhaps to be expected since its Low-A). King has not started his pro career well, thought he is in a hitter’s death valley in Wilmington.
Interesting quote from the post: “Seaver King did not appear in a SINGLE MOCK draft in the top 10 that I can recall, nor was he ever associated with a Nats pick at #10. This is coming out of LF for sure.“
2023: Dylan Crews, OF, LSU. 2nd overall, $9M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction July 2023. My instant reaction at the time summarized: happy to get Crews, who was the 1-1 projection for most of the draft season and the Golden Spikes winner. Thought I did say by the time the draft rolled around that I would have preferred we get Skenes Of course, as it has turned out Skenes has been a generational 1-1 player… but he was off the board for us. Crews is in the majors now, which is a big step for prospect development, but has not hit nearly as well in his debut as we would have liked. See the below quote:
Interesting quote from the post: “I think I would have preferred Skenes if we had the choice, given our lack of pitching prospect depth and our abundance of OF prospects, but that can all work itself out later.“
2022: Elijah Green, OF, IMG Academy (FL). 5th overall, $6.5M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction July 2022. My instant reaction at the time summarized: I didn’t really commit to an opinion one way or the other, interestingly. I threw up some scouting report text instead of providing strong opinion one way or the other. I do seem to defend the pick slightly, as per the below quote. Right now, this pick is looking terrible, with Green back in the FCL trying to fix his contact issues.
Interesting quote from the post: “I understand there’s people who hate this pick. It is an upside pick, clearly. This pick is about ceiling, not floor. This is about picking someone who might be the next Ken Griffey; a guy who’s already 6’3″ with 70 power who also has 70 speed.“
2021: Brady House, 3B, Winder Barrow HS (GA). 11th overall, $5M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction July 2021. My instant reaction at the time summarized: I was ecstatic that House fell to us at #11. Plain and simple. I loved this pick. Right now it’s aging decently, with House in the majors and getting his sea legs.
Interesting quote from the post: “Suffice it to say; I like this pick. Yes he’s a prep kid, meaning he’s of no real immediate help, but based on our 2021 team and the turnover we likely face this coming off-season, we may be entering a rebuilding phase anyway, and House could be part of a crew that helps kick-start the franchise in a few years.“
2020: Cade Cavalli, RHP, Oklahoma. 22nd overall, $3.027M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction June 2020. My instant reaction at the time summarized: I found that he hit all the markers for a solid RHP starter, but was concerned about his lack of pitching track record in college. I don’t think I knew his name before he got picked. This pick is not aging well frankly: two lost seasons to injury, and his AAA performance in 2025 leaves much to be desired. Is he a washout? No, not yet, but he’s nearly 27 now and needs to be in the majors contributing.
Interesting quote from the post: “Cavalli is a speculative, scouting-first pick; he has little track record to go on, and this is the kind of pick that you can regret later on if he doesn’t work out.“
2019: Jackson Rutledge, RHP, San Jacinto College North (TX). 17th overall, $3.45M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction June 2019. My instant reaction at the time summarized: I was happy with the pick, and they seemed to get a bit of a steal on a player ranked higher than they got him. This take, and the pick, have not aged well; while he’s made the majors he has a 6 ERA there.
Interesting quote from the post: “He throws over the top, is up to 98-99 on the fastball with a mid 80s cutter, a wipe out slider, a 12-6 curve and some deception due to what’s described as “unusual short arm” mechanics. I’m hoping we’re getting something closer to Randy Johnson and not a rehashing of Jake Johansen.“
2018: Mason Denaburg, RHP, Merritt Island HS (FL). 27th overall, $3M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction June 2018. My instant reaction at the time summarized: I liked the pick, getting a player projected to go mid-1st but who fell because of a minor injury (an omen perhaps). This take didn’t age well, and Denaburg never got out of a-ball.
Interesting quote from the post: “This pick is consistent with the behavior we saw when the team selected Lucas Giolito; high-value guy getting picked about 15 spots lower than he should have.“
2017: Seth Romero, LHP, Houston. 25th overall, $2.8M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction June 2017. My instant reaction at the time summarized: Hated it. Well, at least I got this one right at the time. See the below quote:
Interesting quote from the post: “Well, the worrisome situation came to pass; the Nats couldn’t help themselves and drafted perhaps the draft’s biggest knucklehead. His list of transgressions at Houston were large and dumb; fights with teammates, weight/conditioning issues, drug issues.”
2016: Carter Kieboom, SS, Walton HS (GA). 28th overall, $2M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction June 2016. My instant reaction at the time summarized: I was surprised they went with a prep kid, but the scouting report called him one of the best hitters in the class.
Interesting quote from the post: “Described consistently as a great hitter, one of the best prep hitters in the class, he currently plays SS but is projected to move to 3B.“
2015: No 1st round pick; lost for Max Scherzer signing. Can’t complain about that. Again, like in 2012, thanks to our league best record in 2014, it would have been the 31st overall pick, hence feeding into the thought process that it wasn’t nearly as valuable as if it were in the teens.
2014: Erick Fedde, RHP, UNLV. 18th overall, $2.5M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction June 2014. My instant reaction at the time summarized: I didn’t like the pick, calling it an overdraft of a guy with a blown out elbow before even starting his pro career.
Interesting quote from the post: “He’s a Scott Boras client, he was a HS teammate of Bryce Harper, and he’s rehabbing a torn UCL, so he fits in nicely with the Nats on several levels. It was easy to see why the mock drafts were all over the Nats taking Fedde.“
2013: No 1st round pick; lost for Rafael Soriano signing, which I was lukewarm about at the time and grew to really hate as we learned how much of a knee-jerk reaction it was to Storen’s 2012 NLDS meltdown and of Lerner’s influence on player acquisition at the time. It would have been #33 overall, since we were the best team in 2012, so it’s not like we lost a super high pick. That was the argument the team made to forgo the pick with a Class-A FA signing.
2012: Lucas Giolito, RHP, Harvard-Westlake HS (CA). 16th overall, $2.9M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction June 2012. My instant reaction at the time summarized: I was really worried about the amount of trust the Nats were putting into surgeons with our draft class.
Interesting quote from the post: “Giolito, if healthy, was in the mix for 1-1. As was Purke. As was Rendon. All three fell because of injury concerns. So clearly these are top-end talents, each individually worth the risk. But all three within two draft classes?“
2011: Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice. 6th overall, $6M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction June 2011. My instant reaction at the time summarized: Absolutely ecstatic that we got Rendon. In fact, I distinctly remember being on a live-chat text chain with friends that night and my jaw dropping in amazement as Rendon was skipped over pick after pick. Remember; this guy was the Golden Spikes winner as a SOPHOMORE in college.
Interesting quote from the post: “I still can’t quite believe that Rendon fell to us. I thought for sure he was going #2 or #3 overall.“
I started the blog in mid June 2010, so I missed opining on our 1st overall pick Bryce Harper that year. I’m sure I liked it 🙂
So, how did my opinions age? Mostly decent.
I seemed to like:
Rendon, Denaburg, Rutledge, House, Crews
I was lukewarm on:
Kieboom, Giolito, Cavalli, Green, King, Willits
And I disliked:
Fedde, Romero
So, not the best track record of Hot Takes. We’ll see how 2025 ages.
Gore mowed ’em down in the 2025 ASG. Photo wikipedia
This is a running post with all star notes for the team, updated for 2025. It includes a complete history of our All Star selections dating to the franchise’s beginnings in 2005, and may look familiar as I recycle the old content every year.
Nats All Star Game Trivia: none of these have updated for our 2025 selections.
All-time leader in Nats all-star appearances: Bryce Harper and Max Scherzer, both with 6 appearances with the Nats. (these numbers are only appearances with us, not including other franchises)
All-time leader in All-Star Game starts: Harper, who had 5 starts.
Total number of Starters in the history of the Franchise: Now is 11; Harper 5 times, Scherzer 3 times, and one each for Soriano, Murphy, Zimmerman.
Most all-star players named in a single year: 5 in both 2016 and 2017.
Least all-star game players named in a single year: 1 in multiple years during the “dark years” of 2006 through 2011, and now again in the early 2020s as the team rebuilds.
Most unlikely All-Star: Probably Dmitri Young or Cristian Guzman, both being the “someone has to make the all star team” nominations in our 100 loss period in the late 2000s.
Nationals All-Star Representative: James Wood, MacKenzie Gore (both 1st timers)
Snubs: CJ Abrams
Narrative: No surprises here; both Wood and Gore have been near league-best this season. Is it surprising the team got two ASG representatives as a last-place team? Absolutely. Last year’s AS rep Abrams, if we were a 1st place team instead of last place, likely would have gotten his 2nd AS naming since he enters the AS break with a 144 OPS+ figure but is skipped due to the deep SS field in the National League. Wood also got into the HR derby (which we didn’t separately cover this year) but went one-round and out.
Nationals All-Star Representative: CJ Abrams, Kyle Finnegan (both 1st time)
Snubs: Trevor Williams (on dl)
Narrative: Abrams was initially our sole representative until Finnegan was added at the last minute as an injury replacement. Williams should have been the named representative, sitting in the top 10 in most pitching categories, but got hurt a few weeks before the ASG and probably won’t return for weeks afterwards. We have a couple other players putting up decent seasons (Winker, Irvin) but none really All Star worthy.
Four Ex-nats appeared in the 2024 ASG, three of them starters (Harper, Turner, Soto). Amazingly Reynaldo Lopez represented Atlanta. Erick Fedde didn’t make the ASG but is considered one of the best trade prospects of the year. Wish we could have gotten these two guys to pitch like this for us.
Narrative. The Nats were bad this year, and were one of those teams that had to dig deep to find a sole representative. Grey was our opening day starter and was our best starter for the bulk of the year. We had some other players who ended up having decent seasons (Candelario, Thomas, Harvey) but they would have too much competition in their respective positions to earn a spot.
Nationals All-Star Representative: Juan Soto (2nd)
Snubs: Josh Bell
Narrative. Soto gets his 2nd ASG appearance, probably more on reputation than performance for 2022. He’s only hitting .243 as of the naming, but is getting on base at nearly a .400 clip thanks to his league-leading walk figure. Meanwhile, the best hitter on the team by far is Bell, who is snubbed from making his own 2nd ASG appearance likely a couple of weeks before he’s traded to a contender. Well, when you’re a last place team, you’re only getting one guy on the roster. Soto also gets into the Home Run Derby, which he wins. However, the story of the week was the leaking of contract talks breaking down, with Soto turning down a $440M deal and the team announcing they’re entertaining trade talks.
Nationals All-Star representatives: Trea Turner, Juan Soto, Kyle Schwarber, Max Scherzer* (substitute addition)
Possible Snubs: none
Narrative: The Nats scuffle into the all-star week on fumes thanks to losing 7 of 9 against NL West teams and suffering perhaps one too many injuries. Scherzer was not initially named, which I immediately listed as a huge snub. But then not only was he added as a replacement player … he was then named the damn starter. How is that possible? Anyway, among our other named players Schwarber’s injury prevents him from playing, but Soto gets into the Home Run derby, where he upsets #1 seed Shohei Ohtani before losing in the next round.
2020
Nationals All-Star representatives: (No Game)
Who would have made it: Juan Soto
Narrative: Covid-19 forced the cancellation of the ASG and the shortening of the season from 162 to 60 games. Nonetheless, the season that Juan Soto put up should have been recognized, even un-officially. He hit .351/.490/.695 in 47 games for an astounding 221 OPS+ figure, the 33rd best ever season posted by this figure. But, since Soto got hit with Covid and had to miss the first two weeks … he did not qualify for batting titles and was left out of the ASG and MVP conversations.
Nationals All-Star representatives: Max Scherzer, Anthony Rendon
Possible Snubs: Juan Soto, Stephen Strasburg, Howie Kendrick, Trevor Rosenthal (just kidding)
Narrative: Rendon finally is named to an all-star team, having played in the shadows of other more well-known NL third basemen for years. Arbitrary Endpoints: Rendon is 7th in baseball among hitters in total fWAR since 2014. 7th. In the entire league. And this is his first ASG. Meanwhile Scherzer is the obvious pick, though i’m not sure he gets the start this year. Scherzer leads the NL in bWAR … but Hyun-Jin Ryu is having an amazing season and could get the nod (indeed, he has). Soto’s numbers are solid, as good as his rookie campaign, but he started slow and the story-line surrounding the Nats this season has overshadowed his production. Strasburg actually has more bWAR than Rendon … but his numbers are solid, not all-star good. Kendrick would never have gotten a nod, but he should be a shoe-in for comeback player of the year for the season he’s having. Others of note: Sean Doolittle was amazing for most of the first half but has tired and his numbers slipped. Patrick Corbin‘s debut season has been solid, not flashy, and he has the same issues as Strasburg had.
Post publishing update: neither of our two representatives are actually going to Cleveland. Rendon staying home to rehab a nagging quad injury, and Scherzer is traveling but will not pitch b/c he threw a start just ahead of the game. Both players were replaced by non-Nats … which was a shame b/c a like-for-like with Strasburg for Scherzer seemed like the right thing to do.
Nationals All-Star representatives: Bryce Harper*, Max Scherzer*, Sean Doolittle
Possible Snubs: Juan Soto, Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon
Narrative: For the home-town All Star Game, Harper gets the starting nod from the fans despite his abhorrent season at the plate (his slash line on 7/8/18: .219/.371/.475). However, by making the ASG, Harper now keeps his promise to participate in the Home Run Derby one last time before hitting free agency. There’s no real “snubs” on this Nationals team; The #2 player on the team in terms of seasonal bWAR is Trea Turner but he’s not exactly having a head-turning season. He was named to the “last 5 ballot” but was a huge long-shot to make it (update; he didn’t: the very deserving Jesus Aguilar did). Anthony Rendon is having his typical under-rated season and got no love from the voters over the more famous Nolan Arenado (a common refrain when it comes to Gold Gloves/Silver Sluggers too). None of our starters besides Scherzer are really deserving; Stephen Strasburg was having a decent but not spectacular season but missed a month and is on the D/L. Nor is any of the bullpen past Doolittle. Its an odd-season where a team-wide malaise is contributing to the team hovering at .500 at the All Star Break. Only Juan Soto really is deserving … but he was never going to make the ASG (not when recent more spectacular rookies failed to make it) and thanks to his missing all of April and most of May he wasn’t on any ballots and may struggle to win the RoY over guys who have played longer this season. Scherzer is named to the team on 7/8/18 was named the NL starter for the 2nd year running on 7/16/18.
Nationals All-Star representatives: Bryce Harper*, Daniel Murphy*, Ryan Zimmerman*, Max Scherzer*, Stephen Strasburg
Snubs: Anthony Rendon, Gio Gonzalez
Narrative: For the second year in a row, the Nats are well and properly represented in the All Star Game. We have three starters named in the field, including Zimmerman who beats out a slew of 1B sluggers in the NL to not only make the team but get his first start. Its also likely i’ll be editing this post and adding in Scherzer as an additional starter; he is the obvious choice to start the game for the NL given his first half production (7/10/17 update: yes indeed we did). Rendon is having a very quiet solid season and is in the “last 5” popular vote, but he seems unlikely to win given that last year’s MVP Kris Bryant is also in the voting (Update: neither guy got in). Gonzalez misses out despite having a better first half than Strasburg by nearly any statistic; he’s having a career year but seems unlikely to get rewarded with his 3rd ASG appearance. There’s no other real snub from our 2017 team; certainly there’s nobody in the bullpen meriting a spot, and Trea Turner‘s torrid 2016 2nd half did not translate into the 2017 season (not to mention, he’s had two separate D/L trips). Once again i’m slightly perturbed that Harper continues to refuse to participate in the HR derby; why the reticence? Its a fun event that is quickly becoming better than the actual game itself and practically every other slugger is participating. Is he afraid to lose? On a larger scale, i’m really happy to see (finally) that deserving rookies are named: Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger are both named and are both on the inside track for ROY awards; too many times in the past we see deserving rookies unnamed. On July 10th, the fourth Nat starter was named: Scherzer got the starting pitcher nod, a first for the Nats. August Update: Rendon’s omission is looking even more ridiculous; he’s top 5 in the league in bWAR.
Nationals All-Star representatives: Bryce Harper*, Stephen Strasburg, Daniel Murphy, Wilson Ramos, Max Scherzer (named as replacement for Strasburg on 7/8/16),
Possible Snubs: Danny Espinosa, Tanner Roark
Narrative: The four obvious candidates from the Nats this year were all initially correctly selected, though voting shenanigans out of Chicago elected Ben Zobrist over Daniel Murphy by a scant 500 votes. I thought perhaps Strasburg would have a chance to start the game, given his 12-0 record, but it seems the team pre-empted any such thought when Scherzer’s naming occurred. For the first time writing this post, I can’t really name any “snubs” and the team has (finally?) earned the proper respect it deserves in terms of naming its players properly. Espinosa had a week for the ages just prior to the end of voting but really stood little chance of selection in the grand scheme of things. He’s not really a “snub” but is worthy of mention based on his resurgent year. At the break, Espinosa ranked 3rd in NL fWAR but 7th or 8th in bWAR thanks to differing defensive value metrics, so maybe/maybe not on him being a “snub.” As pointed out in the comments, even I missed the sneaky good season Roark is having; he’s 12th in the NL in bWAR at the break and 9th in fWAR but was left off in favor of any number of starters that stand below him in value rankings. Unfortunately for fans (and for Harper’s “Make Baseball Fun again” campaign, he opted to skip the Home Run Derby again. I guess its kind of like the NBA superstars skipping the dunk contest; the Union should really do a better job of helping out in this regard. The new format is fantastic and makes the event watchable again; is it ego keeping him from getting beat by someone like Giancarlo Stanton?
Nationals All-Star representatives: Bryce Harper*, Max Scherzer
Possible Snubs: Yunel Escobar, Drew Storen
Narrative: Harper not only made it in as a starter for the 2nd time, he led the NL in votes, setting a MLB record for total votes received. This is no surprise; Harper’s easily in the MVP lead for the NL thanks to his amazing first half (his split at the half-way point of the season: .347/.474/.722 with 25 homers and an astounding 225 OPS+). I guess he won’t be earning the “Most overrated player” award next year. That Harper is electing to skip the Home run derby in a disappointment; his father is nursing an arm injury can cannot throw to him in the event. In a weird year for the Nats, the only other regular worth mentioning is newly acquired Escobar, who is hitting above .300 and filling in ably at multiple positions that, prior to this year, he had never played. Storen is having another excellent regular season … but at a time when mandatory members from each team often leads to other closers being selected (there are 5 NL closers and 7 AL relievers), the odds of him making the All-Star team were always going to be slim. Scherzer deservedly makes the team and probably would have been the NL starter; he’s got sub 2.00 ERA and FIP and leads all NL pitchers in WAR at the mid-way point of the season. But his turn came up in the final game of the first half, making him ineligible for the game and forcing his replacement on the roster.
As a side note, the 2015 All-Star game will go down as the “Ballot-Gate” game thanks to MLB’s short-sighted plan to allow 30+ online ballots per email address. This led to severe “ballot stuffing” by the Kansas City Royals fans, led to MLB having to eliminate 60 million+ fraudulent ballots, but still led to several Royals being elected starters over more deserving candidates.
Nationals All-Star representative: Jordan Zimmermann (Update post-publishing: Zimmermann strained a bicep, and had to withdraw from the ASG. For a bit it looked like the Nats wouldn’t even have a representative, until Tyler Clippardwas named on 7/13/14).
Possible Snubs: Adam LaRoche, Anthony Rendon, Rafael Soriano, Drew Storen
Narrative: Zimmermann’s been the best SP on the best pitching staff in the majors this year, and thus earns his spot. I find it somewhat odd that a first place team (or near to it) gets just one representative on the team (as discussed above). Rendon tried to make the team via the “last man in” voting, but historically Nationals have not fared well in this competition (especially when better known players from large markets are in the competition, aka Anthony Rizzo from the Chicago Cubs), and indeed Rendon finished 4th in the last-man voting. LaRoche is having a very good season, almost single handedly carrying the Nats offense while major parts were out injured, but he’s never going to beat out the slew of great NL first basemen (Joey Votto couldn’t even get into this game). Soriano has quietly put together one of the best seasons of any closer in the game; at the time of this writing he has a 1.03 ERA and a .829 whip; those are Dennis Eckersley numbers. But, the farce that is the all-star game selection criteria (having to select one player from each team) means that teams need a representative, and deserving guys like Soriano get squeezed. Then, Soriano indignantly said he wouldn’t even go if named as a replacement … likely leading to Clippard’s replacement selection. The same goes for non-closer Storen, who sports a sub 2.00 ERA on the year. Advanced stats columnists (Keith Law) also think that Stephen Strasburg is a snub but I’m not entirely sure: he may lead the NL in K’s right now and have far better advanced numbers than “traditional,” but its hard to make an argument that a guy with a 7-6 record and a 3.50+ ERA is all-star worthy.
Nationals All-Star representatives: Bryce Harper*, Jordan Zimmermann
Snubs: Stephen Strasburg, Ian Desmond
Narrative: Harper comes in 3rd in the NL outfielder voting, ahead of some big-time names, to become only the second Nationals position player elected as an All-Star starter. He was 4th in the final pre-selection vote, so a big last minute push got him the starter spot. Harper also becomes the first National to participate in the Home Run Derby. Zimmermann was 12-3 heading into the game and was on mid-season Cy Young short lists in July in a breakout season. Strasburg’s advanced stats are all better than Zimmermann’s, but his W/L record (4-6 as the ASG) means he’s not an all-star. It also probably doesn’t help that he missed a few weeks. Desmond loses out to Troy Tulowitzki, Everth Cabrera and Jean Segura. Tulowitzki was having a very solid year and was a deserving elected starter, while Cabrera and Segura are both having breakout seasons. Desmond was on the “Final vote” roster, but my vote (and most others’ I’m guessing) would be for Yasiel Puig there ([Editor Update: Desmond and Puig lost out to Freddie Freeman: I still wished that Puig finds a way onto the roster but ultimately he did not and I believe the ASG was diminished because of it). Gio Gonzalez, Ryan Zimmerman, and Rafael Soriano are all having solid but unspectacular years and miss out behind those having great seasons.
Nationals All-Star representatives: Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Ian Desmond, BryceHarper
Possible Snubs: Adam LaRoche, Craig Stammen
Narrative: The two SPs Strasburg and Gonzalez were the obvious candidates, and my personal prediction was that they’d be the only two candidates selected. Gonzalez’ first half was a prelude to his 21-win, 3rd place Cy Young season. The inclusion of Desmond is a surprise, but also a testament to how far he’s come as a player in 2012. Harper was a last-minute injury replacement, but had earned his spot by virtue of his fast start as one of the youngest players in the league. Of the “snubs,” LaRoche has had a fantastic come back season in 2012 but fared little shot against better, more well-known NL first basemen. Stammen was our best bullpen arm, but like LaRoche fared little chance of getting selected during a year when the Nats had two deserving pitchers selected.
Possible Snubs: Danny Espinosa, Michael Morse, Drew Storen, Jordan Zimmermann
Narrative: While Clippard was (arguably) the Nats best and most important reliever, I think Zimmermann was a more rightful choice. He was 10th in the league in ERA at the time of the selections and has put in a series of dominant performances. Meanwhile Espinosa was on pace for a 28-homer season and almost a certain Rookie-of-the-Year award (though a precipitous fall-off in the 2nd half cost him any realistic shot at the ROY), and perhaps both players are just too young to be known around the league. Lastly Morse is certainly known and he merited a spot in the “last man in” vote sponsored by MLB (though he fared little chance against popular players in this last-man-in voting).
Possible Snubs: Adam Dunn, Josh Willingham, Ryan Zimmerman, Stephen Strasburg
Narrative: Capps was clearly deserving, having a breakout season as a closer after his off-season non-tender from the Pirates. The 3-4-5 hitters Zimmerman-Dunn-Willingham all had dominant offensive seasons as the team improved markedly from its 103-loss season. But perhaps the surprise non-inclusion was Strasburg, who despite only having a few starts as of the all-star break was already the talk of baseball. I think MLB missed a great PR opportunity to name him to the team to give him the exposure that the rest of the national media expected. But in the end, Capps was a deserving candidate and I can’t argue that our hitters did anything special enough to merit inclusion.
Nationals All-Star representatives: Ryan Zimmerman
Possible Snubs: Adam Dunn
Narrative: The addition of Dunn and Willingham to the lineup gave Zimmerman the protection he never had, and he produced with his career-best season. His first and deserved all-star appearance en-route to a 33 homer season. Dunn continued his monster homer totals with little all-star recognition.
Narrative: The first of two “hitting rock-bottom” seasons for the team; no one really merited selection. Zimmerman was coming off of hamate-bone surgery in November 2007 and the team was more or less awful across the board. Rauch performed ably after Cordero went down with season-ending (and basically career-ending) shoulder surgery. Guzman’s selection a great example of why one-per-team rules don’t make any sense. Guzman ended up playing far longer than he deserved in the game itself by virtue of the 15-inning affair.
Possible Snubs: Ryan Zimmerman, Shawn Hill (though I wouldn’t argue for either)
Narrative: Young gets a deserved all-star appearance en route to comeback player of the year. Zimmerman played a full season but didn’t dominate. Our 2007 staff gave starts to 13 different players, most of whom were out of the league within the next year or two. Not a good team.
Nationals All-Star representatives: Alfonso Soriano*
Possible Snubs: Nick Johnson, Ryan Zimmerman, Chad Cordero
Narrative: Soriano made the team as an elected starter, the first time the Nats have had such an honor. Our pitching staff took massive steps backwards and no starter came even close to meriting a spot. Cordero was good but not lights out as he had been in 2005. Soriano’s 40-40 season is a poster child for “contract year” production and he has failed to come close to such production since. The team was poor and getting worse. Johnson had a career year but got overshadowed by bigger, better first basemen in the league (a recurring theme for our first basemen over the years).
Nationals All-Star representatives: Livan Hernandez, Chad Cordero
Possible Snubs: Nick Johnson, John Patterson.
Narrative: The Nats went into the All Star break surprisingly in first place, having run to a 50-31 record by the halfway point. Should a first place team have gotten more than just two representatives? Perhaps. But the team was filled with non-stars and played far over its head to go 50-31 (as evidenced by the reverse 31-50 record the rest of the way).
Butler’s Moroknek is our 11th rounder. Photo via Butler U
With the draft now compressed to just two days, we’ve had to punch out a ton of content real quickly. Here was our quick reaction to the 1-1 pick Eli Willits, then we did a post on the first 10 rounds of picks, which seemed to include one top pick with a big haircut, one near-slot slugger, three prep kids who need over-slot deals, then five senior signs.
Here’s the rest of our draft, which comprises guys we’ve never heard of but will nonetheless lookup their stats where available and pass some judgement.
Here’s the two main draft tracker resources you need and that I’m updating this week once the draft is complete.
Nationals Draft Tracker: this is the long-running Google XLS with all our picks dating to 2005. There’s two tabs here: the main page with every pick, then a deeper-dive 2025 Draft pick with slot bonus breakdowns and other information on each pick.
MLB’s Draft Tracker, the best of various options of Draft Trackers out there.
Here’s links to major Prospect Rankings shops that I’ll reference below when assessing the “value” of the pick. I’m not expecting a ton of the 11-20th rounds to have any top-XXX rankings honestly.
11th Round, #321 Overall: Jack Moroknek, Coll Jr. OF from Butler
Ranks by major shops: BA=398
Morokneck is listed as a “Coll Sr” on MLB’s draft tracker, but he is finishing up his third year of college. He came into school old, so he’s already turned 22. I’m calling him a Coll Jr. irrespective of what MLBpipeline says. He was Butler’s leading hitter this year, slashing .372/.443/.702 with power. He’s a 6’3″ classical big guy corner OF (he played a lot of RF for Butler) and the BA scouting profile shows promise. In a repeating trend, his scouting report talks about his elite Exit Velocity (EV), putting him at 90% percentile for D1. This is not the first time we’ve seen EV listed prominently for a player the team has drafted, and I have to believe this is a specific marker our new-fangled scouting department is focusing on.
11th rounders are always an interesting set of players, often with the talent level to have been more like a 5th/6th rounder and often commanding a premium over the $150k figure, so Morokneck will be one to keep an eye on. We’ve mostly tried out College Arms who slipped out of the top 10 with our 11th rounders as of late, often throwing an extra $100k at them, and have had varying success.
12th Round: #351 overall: Ben Moore, Coll JR LHP from Old Dominion
Ranks by major shops: MLB=237, BA=243
A local kid! He’s from ODU in Norfolk by way of Linganore HS in Frederick, MD. Ben Moore began the 2025 season as the #64 ranked prospect by BA … but by season’s end he had fallen out of the top 10 rounds. He went from the bullpen for ODU his first two years into the rotation this year and struggled: 6.64 ERA, 1.68 whip. He was just generally wild: 32 walks and 12 HBPs in 63 innings, and despite having a fastball up to 97 he averaged less than a K/inning. So, that’s not a great 2025, but clearly he had some near 2nd round potential before the season. The team has to be betting on this prior reputation, similarly to the way the Angels were betting on Tyler Bremner’s pre-2025 season promise by picking him 2nd overall. Is he signable? Absolutely; he went to the MLB combine, and you don’t go to the combine if you’re not looking to get drafted and start playing pro. I can’t see any reason he wouldn’t go for the $150k slot.
13th round: #381 overall: Tucker Biven, Coll Jr. RHP from Louisville
Ranks: BA=347
Biven served as a swing-man for top-10 ranked Louisville team this year, getting both starts and saves throughout the year. He didn’t have the greatest stats this year and certainly took a step back from his 2024 season, where he had better numbers. 2025 stats; 23 appearances, 5 starts, 43ip, 3.71 ERA, 1.58 whip. Is he signable? He still has eligibility and did not attend the combine. But, if he’s projecting to the Louisville bullpen again in 2026, what does he have left to prove? He could end up in a senior sign 7th round situation offered $10k, versus gambling on a guaranteed $150k payday today. I think he signs.
14th round: #411 overall: Nick Hollifield, Coll Jr. C from UAB
Seems like a middle of the road college catcher; not great hitting stats, got a nod for a mid-season Buster Posey nomination award (goes to the best college catcher). Slashed .266/.376/.415 this year. Was a rock behind the plate for UAB, making 50+ starts this year. Will he sign? This season was his best offensively, so if he wants to play professionally now’s the time. I think he signs.
15th round: #441 overall: Jacob Walsh, Coll Sr 1B from Oregon
Senior 1B, decent stats this year, 1,000 OPS with 19 homers and some SB. Attended the MLB combine, which clearly did him some favors as we pick him up. Was the Oregon career HR record holder after his JUNIOR year, only extended it in his Sr. season. Lefty, big guy, but also was named to some all-conference Defensive teams. Seems like a decent prospect.
16th Round: #471 overall: Levi Huesman, Coll Jr LHP from Vanderbilt
Huseman is at Vanderbilt by way of Richmond baseball powerhouse Hanover HS. He was initially at Coastal Carolina but xferred in for his sophomore season. This year, he threw just 16 innings this year: 20/4 K/BB in those ip with solid 2.81 ERA. He was a 17th rounder out of HS but went to college, now he’s a 16th rounder after his Junior year. He did not go to the MLB combine. He’s been barely used out of Vandy’s pen for two years now, and I wonder if he wants to stick around for another year of pitching an inning a week. Seems like he’d be signable.
17th round: #501 overall: Bryce Molinaro, Coll Jr 3B from Penn State
Penn State is not exactly a baseball powerhouse. And Molinaro wasn’t exactly an offensive superstar there this year, slashing .267/.373/.502 for the season. He’s a PA kid who initially went to St. Johns and who then redshirted and transferred, so technically he’s a RS Sophomore. He was a lot better last year, slashing .329/.409/.560 as a RS freshman. If he signed, he’d be signing low honestly. He did not attend the MLB combine. I think the combination of his downturn in performance, his now attending Penn State as a PA resident (PA guys are completely enamored of Penn State), and the fact that he still has two years of eligibility means he’s going to stay in school and won’t sign.
18th round: #531 overall: Owen Puk, Coll Sr RHP from Florida International
Puk posted a 4.91 ERA/1.39 whip with decent K/9 but some control issues (23 walks in 40 ip plus 11 WPs) as a sat/sun “starter” for FIU this year. I put “starter” in quotes because he usually only went 3-4 innings, often less, resulting in just 40IP cross 15 appearances. He’s technically a RS junior, having missed all of 2023 getting Tommy John. If you recognize the unique last name you should: he’s the brother of AJ Puk, who was a 6th overall pick a decade ago by Oakland and who is in the majors now. So, Owen isn’t nearly the prospect AJ was, but isn’t a bad bet based on pedigree for an 18th rounder. He’s done four years in school and should sign.
So, we get our one prep backup plan pick here in the 19th round. The Nats have generally used their 19th or 20th picks to grab a big-name prep kid who’s slipped out of signing range as insurance in case one of their negotiations goes south with the kids they grabbed in the 1st-5th rounds. I guarantee you Pike would sign for the overage we’d planned on spending there. He’s a 2-way Oregon State commit who BA had ranked #31 at season’s beginning, so we’re talking a 1st-2nd round talent. He’s a switch hitter with a bunch of 60 tool grades, can hit 97 on the mound but otherwise is mostly being evaluated as a SS. He’ll play both ways if/when he gets to college.
20th round: #591 overall: Juan Cruz, 1B Coll Jr from Alabama State University
BA ranked 474
Our 20th rounder is intriguing: Juan Cruz, huge 1B from Alabama State (6’5″ 240) who attended the MLB combine as a junior. His numbers this year are impressive: .420/.481/.690 for a gaudy 1.171 OPS figure. He’s technically a Redshirt sophomore, but he went to the MLB combine this year, which I’m reading like others as his intent to get drafted and sign. He crushed the ball last year to earn all-conference Freshman of the year, and was SWAC player of the year in 2025. I see one caveat here: he’s in the transfer portal and has committed to move to Georgia. Does he want to roll the dice with a season in the SEC, or to turn pro having dominated his league? We’ll see.
So, a decent balance of arms and position players from 11-20, a couple of guys with solid college stats that might turn out solid. 9 of the 10 picks here were college guys with the one insurance prep kid as an exception.
I’ve updated the Draft Tracker’s 2025 draft with this data, and will start to be on the lookout for signings and NDFAs. I’ll also populate the social media links of these players, since that’s where they often tip their hat to signings or inclinations of returning to school.
Petry projects as a 1B/LF slugger after a solid career in South Carolina. photo via BA
We just posted a quick reaction to the 1-1 pick Eli Willits. Here’s a run through the first 10 picks, for all of Day 1 and Day 2 of the draft, showing where the various prospect ranking shops ranked our picks, with some thoughts and bonus projections.
Here’s the two main draft tracker resources you need and that I’m updating this week in as close to real-time as I can given my current employment status :-):
Nationals Draft Tracker: this is the long-running Google XLS with all our picks dating to 2005. There’s two tabs here: the main page with every pick, then a deeper-dive 2025 Draft pick with slot bonus breakdowns and other information on each pick.
MLB’s Draft Tracker, the best of various options of Draft Trackers out there.
Here’s links to major Prospect Rankings shops that I’ll reference below when assessing the “value” of the pick.
ProspectsLive Final Top 400 Draft board released 7/12/25 (paywall past top 10)
1st Round, 1st Overall: Eli Willits, Prep SS from Fort Cobb-Broxton HS in Oklahoma.
Ranks by major shops: BA=3, Law=8, MLB=5, Fangraphs=5, Prospects1500=6, ESPN=3
As already discussed, this was a shock pick to most pundits and the industry, who had the Nats taking either Anderson or Holliday for the most part. Willits is still a top 5 player on nearly every draft board (Keith Law being the low-man on him, citing lack of power). A lot of the shops talk about his floor being easy to attain, so there’s that. For me, I think he’s a #5 overall pick projection who made it to 1-1 probably by cutting a deal, so we’ll see how much savings the team got (probably in the $3M range) and how they can spread it out amongst the rest of the draft. Committed to Oklahoma, where his dad is on staff, but he’ll never get there.
2nd round #49 overall: Ethan Petry, a 4th year College Jr 1B/OF from U of South Carolina
Ranks by major shops: BA=36, Law=68, MLB=59, Fangraphs=104, Prospects1500=44, ESPN=75
Petry pretty clearly is a slugger. He’s got 60s and 65s for his power grade amongst the various shops, and is probably a LF/1B/DH type in pro ball. He has posted solid power numbers throughout his career, with pretty impressive 110mph+ EVs. One scouting report even said he could have been in the mix for 1-1 if he was better defensively (which seems like a stretch) An interesting pick here, and one that (like the Willits pick) seems to be more analytics driven (his eye popping EV). Is this an over- or under-slot pick? Is he getting $1.98m here? I’ll bet he signs for a bit under-slot.
3rd round #80 overall: Landon Harmon, RHP prep from East Union Attendance Center HS (MS)
Ranks by major shops: BA=65, Law=95, MLB=48, Fangraphs=31, Prospects1500=65, ESPN=76
Mississippi State commit who is tall (6-5) with a huge fastball (has hit 100) but mechanical concerns (well at least if you believe Keith Law, who thinks everyone has mechanical issues). Yes, he’s a prep right hander in an organization that hasn’t done a great job producing them over the last decade, but has been a bit better as of late with Sykora and Clemmey and even Cuevas, who was a prep 21st rounder and who still is active). We’ll see. this seems like a slightly over-slot deal here, and if you pay him like an early 2nd rounder (i.e. throw in another $1M on top of his slot $1m) he could sign. Should be interesting to see what he signs for. Committed to Mississippi State.
4th round #111 overall: Miguel Sime Jr, RHP prep from Poly Prep Country Day School (NY)
Ranks by major shops: BA=88, Law=nr, MLB=86, Fangraphs=120/HM, Prospects1500=nr, ESPN=nr
Four picks into the new regime and we already have more prep kids drafted than the last 5 drafts combined. Ok, no that’s not quite true… but its close. Sime is from a northern school but has apparently been at every showcase held for the last two years. MLB gives him a 70 grade on his fastball, no small feat. He was at the NHSI that I covered earlier this year, and per BA’s scouting report “held upper-90s velocity for more than 100 pitches” against the Corona HS team that had both Carlson and Hernandez. Wow. This is a big guy: 6’3″ 235 already, that’s like linebacker sized. Hitting 99, sitting 95-96. I’m guessing it takes another extra $750 to get him to sign. Committed to LSU, not that that matters anymore. I like him on paper for sure.
5th Round #142 overall Coy James, a prep SS from Davie HS (NC)
Ranks by major shops: BA=49, Law=nr, MLB=94, Fangraphs=66, Prospects1500=59, ESPN=69
He’s a 6’0″ shortstop who most of the scouts list as one of the best pure hitters in the class. he was an U18 starter as an underclassman, and per reports has “explosive power” despite being a SS. James went into the 2025 prospect season as a slam dunk top 10 pick, projected as high as #10 by BA’s ranks at the time. So what happened? Scouting reports say he gained weight, which added power but caused him to lose athleticism. It sounds to me like someone in the Nats org fell in love with him at a combine somewhere and figures they can get him in shape. He projects like a 20-homer slugging 2B in the pros, and apparently has a “strong commitment” to ole Miss. I’ll bet he nabs near 1st round money ($2.5M or more) and this could be where a lot of our savings goes.
6th round: #171 overall: Boston Smith, Col Sr. C/OF from Wright State
7th round: #201 overall: Julian Tonghini, Col Sr RHP from Arizona
8th round: #231 overall: Riley Maddox, Col Sr RHP from Ole Miss
9th round: #261 overall: Wyatt Henseler, Col Sr 2B/3B from Texas A&M
10th round: #291 overall: Hunter Hines, Col Sr 1B from Mississippi State.
Ranks by major shops: none
So, it’s now pretty clear that this is going to be a 5-man draft. With all due respect to these guys, they are drafted in these spots for one reason: Bonus $$ savings. Every one of these guys is a 4th or 5th year senior with no leverage, and they all probably agreed to sign for $10k (or less), which nets a collective $1.3m or so for the team to throw at other players. There’s no real scouting reports available on any of them.
Of course, this team has had some decent results out of these senior sign/throw away picks lately. Jackson Ross signed for just $2k last year and has already earned a promotion to High-A. Glasser is in AA now as a $10k signing in 2023. Murphy Sthehy the same; in AA as a $10k signing in 2022. Our backup catcher in AAA is Brad Lindsly; he signed for just $20k in the Covid year and is still going. So, these players do matter and can have an impact.
That being said, here’s a quick look at each of them, primarily looking at stats from their colleges and bio:
Boston Smith at Wright State was a monster at the plate this year, with a 1.274 OPS slashing .332/.500/.774 with 26 homers. He hit three homers in his first three games at the CWS Vanderbilt regional, helping Wright State to eliminate the #1 seed and certainly making an impression.
Julian Tonghini at Arizona was a back of the bullpen type; 22 games, 25 IP. Not great numbers from an ERA or WHIP perspective but struck out 44 guys in 25IP. I’m sure that’s what the team is looking at; decent value reliever who is old enough to get through the lower minors fast and see if he’s got what it takes to stick.
Riley Maddox was in Ole Miss’ rotation all year and struggled, 5.56 ERA, 1.45 whip. 69/30 K/BB in 69 IP. He regressed a bit from his Jr. season, where he also made every start.
Wyatt Henseler at Texas A&M: .319/.423/.562 for the season. He was a grad student at TAMU, having done four years at UPenn. He was a 2nd team pre-season All American at D1baseball.com, and certainly hit like it. If he put these numbers up as a Coll Jr he’d be a 4th or 5th rounder; instead he’s a no-leverage 9th rounder for us. He played both 2B and 3B in college and probably can do the same in for us. I’ll bet he can hit in pro ball and I like this pick.
Hunter Hines from Mississippi State slashed .280/.380/.578 as their primary 1B all year. Big guy, 6’3″ 210, lefty swinger. He was first team all-SEC as a sophomore, starting to get some traction, but lost some of that traction in the last two years. Still, he took over the all-time lead in homers late in the 2025 season at the program, besting the record formerly held by Rafael Palmeiro. He seems like a pure masher who is destined for 1B/DH levels, but that’s worth a gamble for sure.
So, that being said, Here’s what I think the team does with its bonus dollars.
Willits: slot $11M. I bet he signs for a bit more than the $8.1M that the 5th overall slot was guaranteed for (his projection in most mocks): call it $8.5M, so $2.5M savings.
Picks 6-10: total bonus pool: $1.33M, $10k each so $50k less, plus the 5% cushion leads to $1.3M in savings.
Petry: slot $1.98M, I’ll bet he signs for a bit less: call it $1.75M for $250k of savings.
So that would give the team right around $4M to work with before the 5% cushion.
Harmon: slot of $1M, add another $1.5M = $2.5M bonus, or around the end of the 1st comp round.
Sime: slot of $687k, add another $1M = $1.6M bonus, or around mid 2nd round
James: slot of $508k, add $1.5M = $2M bonus, or around the beginning of 2nd round.
Something like this.
I’ll post the 11th->20th round picks in another post.
Willits goes 1-1 in a shocker. Photo via USA Basebal
Though I was traveling all weekend (bad timing to try to cover a Sunday evening event properly), I was able to tape and quickly watch the first 15 minutes or so of the 2025 draft to catch the top picks.
To say that the mock drafters were wrong all spring would be a huge understatement, starting at the top.
The Nats come out of nowhere to pick Eli Willits out of an Oklahoma HS at 1-1. Nobody all spring had Willits on the Nats’ radar, and I (and the MLB TV pundits) were in shock.
My quick thoughts: this really sends a weird message from the team. They just fired their long-standing GM presumably because they were disappointed in the direction of the team … then instead of drafting a polished college guy who might be able to contribute with the current set of stars we have, we draft the youngest ever player to go 1-1 in Willits, who reclassified from the 2026 class and who likely does appear in the majors for half a decade. Willits certainly was a highly ranked player, and ranked a lot higher on some teams’ draft boards simply because of his age. He’s 6′ 1″ 180 pure SS switch hitter whose father was a dirt-balling utility guy in the majors for a few years and who looked like a cut-rate Pete Rose at the plate.
Can’t say I like this pick, at all. I think Anderson is closer to a MLB rotation, I think Doyle could be in a bullpen role in the majors right now, and I think Holliday projects to be a far better player. I can only assume that they got a massive deal on the bonus, which will allow them to “stock up” on more prep kids in the next two days.
Does this pick (and its cascading effects on the rest of the draft) represent a monumental shift in the front office’s thinking now that Rizzo is gone? Maybe. But it certainly doesn’t portend well to the fanbase who have seen 5 straight losing seasons to pick a 17 yr old. Yes, I get it, you don’t draft for “need.” But you also don’t ignore context of where you are as a franchise and where you’re going. To me, this pick sends the following message: “We don’t think we’ve got it, even with Gore and Wood and Abrams and Crews and House, so we’re getting set for the future.” Especially if the pick was made to save dollars for more prep kids today and tomorrow.
Here’s the very last post I’ll do on 1-1 predictions for this Draft season. I’ll include all the “final” mocks for our various favorite pundits, probably will have to add in more post-publishing, and will make a final prediction on the top 5.
I’m repeating this link block b/c shops are updating their Draft Board Ranks, as noted below
My current prediction for the top 5: More and more I think we’ll go Anderson, as does the rest of the industry. My final prediction:
Anderson, Doyle, Arquette, Holliday (lock here if he doesn’t go 1-1), Arnold
I’m repeating this analysis from before on the teams in the top 5 and their proclivities with their 1st rounders, but i’ve added to it a bit as it helps guide the predictions:
Post publishing Actual top 5 picks
ACTUAL PICKS post mocks: shockers and surprises. Willits, Bremner, Anderson, Holliday, Doyle.
Almost nobody got it right: only Longenhagen, who was one of the last people to publish, got Willits right amongst the major shops. Bravo.
