Ahead of the 2025 draft, which has no real consensus for 1-1 and the possibility of a risky HS kid taking at the top, I thought it’d be fun to document my own personal reactions to our 1-1 picks, in the immediate aftermath, then see how my writing aged. When, as it turned out, we DID take a risky HS kid at the top (but not the one most of us thought), I wasn’t aghast necessarily, but surprised. And it got me thinking: I’m on record writing these instant reactions for years; how have my “hot takes” aged?
So, here’s a fun “hindsight is 20/20” look at my instant reactions to see if I was spot on or way off.
If we had multiple 1st rounders I’ll just talk about the first one (only comes up once with the Kieboom/Dunning draft), and in years we lost a pick I’ll discuss why and opine on those moves too (happened twice, in 2013 and 2015, and for now won’t happen again with new CBA rules).
Useful links for this read: Nats Draft Tracker (all our picks as a franchise with signing bonuses since 2005), and the Baseball-Reference.com Draft Database link right to Nats 1st rounders.
- 2025: Eli Willits, Prep SS from Oklahoma HS. 1st overall, bonus tbd. My instant reaction from earlier this week: I think its safe to say I would have preferred Kade Anderson as a closer-to-the-majors player, as opposed to a 17yr old we won’t see for years.
- 2024: Seaver King, SS, Wake Forest. 10th overall, $5.1M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction July 2024. My instant reaction at the time summarized: this was a surprise, under-slot pick, thought they should have taken someone else, and felt this was a reach (most shops had him ranked in the 17-19 range). I wanted them to take Branden Montgomery (who went 2 picks later) … who of course is slashing .345/.433/.582 in his pro debut in Kannapolis (perhaps to be expected since its Low-A). King has not started his pro career well, thought he is in a hitter’s death valley in Wilmington.
Interesting quote from the post: “Seaver King did not appear in a SINGLE MOCK draft in the top 10 that I can recall, nor was he ever associated with a Nats pick at #10. This is coming out of LF for sure.“
- 2023: Dylan Crews, OF, LSU. 2nd overall, $9M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction July 2023. My instant reaction at the time summarized: happy to get Crews, who was the 1-1 projection for most of the draft season and the Golden Spikes winner. Thought I did say by the time the draft rolled around that I would have preferred we get Skenes Of course, as it has turned out Skenes has been a generational 1-1 player… but he was off the board for us. Crews is in the majors now, which is a big step for prospect development, but has not hit nearly as well in his debut as we would have liked. See the below quote:
Interesting quote from the post: “I think I would have preferred Skenes if we had the choice, given our lack of pitching prospect depth and our abundance of OF prospects, but that can all work itself out later.“
- 2022: Elijah Green, OF, IMG Academy (FL). 5th overall, $6.5M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction July 2022. My instant reaction at the time summarized: I didn’t really commit to an opinion one way or the other, interestingly. I threw up some scouting report text instead of providing strong opinion one way or the other. I do seem to defend the pick slightly, as per the below quote. Right now, this pick is looking terrible, with Green back in the FCL trying to fix his contact issues.
Interesting quote from the post: “I understand there’s people who hate this pick. It is an upside pick, clearly. This pick is about ceiling, not floor. This is about picking someone who might be the next Ken Griffey; a guy who’s already 6’3″ with 70 power who also has 70 speed.“
- 2021: Brady House, 3B, Winder Barrow HS (GA). 11th overall, $5M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction July 2021. My instant reaction at the time summarized: I was ecstatic that House fell to us at #11. Plain and simple. I loved this pick. Right now it’s aging decently, with House in the majors and getting his sea legs.
Interesting quote from the post: “Suffice it to say; I like this pick. Yes he’s a prep kid, meaning he’s of no real immediate help, but based on our 2021 team and the turnover we likely face this coming off-season, we may be entering a rebuilding phase anyway, and House could be part of a crew that helps kick-start the franchise in a few years.“
- 2020: Cade Cavalli, RHP, Oklahoma. 22nd overall, $3.027M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction June 2020. My instant reaction at the time summarized: I found that he hit all the markers for a solid RHP starter, but was concerned about his lack of pitching track record in college. I don’t think I knew his name before he got picked. This pick is not aging well frankly: two lost seasons to injury, and his AAA performance in 2025 leaves much to be desired. Is he a washout? No, not yet, but he’s nearly 27 now and needs to be in the majors contributing.
Interesting quote from the post: “Cavalli is a speculative, scouting-first pick; he has little track record to go on, and this is the kind of pick that you can regret later on if he doesn’t work out.“
- 2019: Jackson Rutledge, RHP, San Jacinto College North (TX). 17th overall, $3.45M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction June 2019. My instant reaction at the time summarized: I was happy with the pick, and they seemed to get a bit of a steal on a player ranked higher than they got him. This take, and the pick, have not aged well; while he’s made the majors he has a 6 ERA there.
Interesting quote from the post: “He throws over the top, is up to 98-99 on the fastball with a mid 80s cutter, a wipe out slider, a 12-6 curve and some deception due to what’s described as “unusual short arm” mechanics. I’m hoping we’re getting something closer to Randy Johnson and not a rehashing of Jake Johansen.“
- 2018: Mason Denaburg, RHP, Merritt Island HS (FL). 27th overall, $3M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction June 2018. My instant reaction at the time summarized: I liked the pick, getting a player projected to go mid-1st but who fell because of a minor injury (an omen perhaps). This take didn’t age well, and Denaburg never got out of a-ball.
Interesting quote from the post: “This pick is consistent with the behavior we saw when the team selected Lucas Giolito; high-value guy getting picked about 15 spots lower than he should have.“
- 2017: Seth Romero, LHP, Houston. 25th overall, $2.8M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction June 2017. My instant reaction at the time summarized: Hated it. Well, at least I got this one right at the time. See the below quote:
Interesting quote from the post: “Well, the worrisome situation came to pass; the Nats couldn’t help themselves and drafted perhaps the draft’s biggest knucklehead. His list of transgressions at Houston were large and dumb; fights with teammates, weight/conditioning issues, drug issues.”
- 2016: Carter Kieboom, SS, Walton HS (GA). 28th overall, $2M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction June 2016. My instant reaction at the time summarized: I was surprised they went with a prep kid, but the scouting report called him one of the best hitters in the class.
Interesting quote from the post: “Described consistently as a great hitter, one of the best prep hitters in the class, he currently plays SS but is projected to move to 3B.“
- 2015: No 1st round pick; lost for Max Scherzer signing. Can’t complain about that. Again, like in 2012, thanks to our league best record in 2014, it would have been the 31st overall pick, hence feeding into the thought process that it wasn’t nearly as valuable as if it were in the teens.
- 2014: Erick Fedde, RHP, UNLV. 18th overall, $2.5M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction June 2014. My instant reaction at the time summarized: I didn’t like the pick, calling it an overdraft of a guy with a blown out elbow before even starting his pro career.
Interesting quote from the post: “He’s a Scott Boras client, he was a HS teammate of Bryce Harper, and he’s rehabbing a torn UCL, so he fits in nicely with the Nats on several levels. It was easy to see why the mock drafts were all over the Nats taking Fedde.“
- 2013: No 1st round pick; lost for Rafael Soriano signing, which I was lukewarm about at the time and grew to really hate as we learned how much of a knee-jerk reaction it was to Storen’s 2012 NLDS meltdown and of Lerner’s influence on player acquisition at the time. It would have been #33 overall, since we were the best team in 2012, so it’s not like we lost a super high pick. That was the argument the team made to forgo the pick with a Class-A FA signing.
- 2012: Lucas Giolito, RHP, Harvard-Westlake HS (CA). 16th overall, $2.9M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction June 2012. My instant reaction at the time summarized: I was really worried about the amount of trust the Nats were putting into surgeons with our draft class.
Interesting quote from the post: “Giolito, if healthy, was in the mix for 1-1. As was Purke. As was Rendon. All three fell because of injury concerns. So clearly these are top-end talents, each individually worth the risk. But all three within two draft classes?“
- 2011: Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice. 6th overall, $6M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction June 2011. My instant reaction at the time summarized: Absolutely ecstatic that we got Rendon. In fact, I distinctly remember being on a live-chat text chain with friends that night and my jaw dropping in amazement as Rendon was skipped over pick after pick. Remember; this guy was the Golden Spikes winner as a SOPHOMORE in college.
Interesting quote from the post: “I still can’t quite believe that Rendon fell to us. I thought for sure he was going #2 or #3 overall.“
I started the blog in mid June 2010, so I missed opining on our 1st overall pick Bryce Harper that year. I’m sure I liked it 🙂
So, how did my opinions age? Mostly decent.
I seemed to like:
- Rendon, Denaburg, Rutledge, House, Crews
I was lukewarm on:
- Kieboom, Giolito, Cavalli, Green, King, Willits
And I disliked:
- Fedde, Romero
So, not the best track record of Hot Takes. We’ll see how 2025 ages.
Baseball America reported that the Nats have signed one NDFA, and he has quite the background.
Jordan Williams CF and leadoff hitter for Tampa University. With Williams as a key piece, Tampa won their 2nd consecutive D2 title this past year and William slashed: .352/.446/.561/1.007. Oh yeah, he also stole 81 bases in 63 games — that is a lot.
This past season was Williams’ 5th year of college baseball. Two JUCO years at San Jacinto in TX; two years at Florida State (kind of crazy; Williams hit .437 and had .563 OBP at FSU, but only had 32 PAs). FSU seemed to use him as a pinch runner as Williams had 15 steals for FSU in very limited play.
Williams has also played in the MLB Draft League twice (as far back as 2022) and the Cape Cod League in 2024.
He is 25 years-old, and his dad, Reggie Williams played parts of 4 MLB seasons for the Angels.
Jordan Williams age makes him non-prospect, but good to see that he is finally getting a chance.
Pichard
17 Jul 25 at 1:00 pm
I was curious about who the Nats might have missed because of the punt of the 2013 pick for the questionable signing of Soriano. It’s only the #33 pick, you say? Hm . . .
The Yankees had picks #32 and #33. If they had only had one, would they have taken the high school lefty who never made the majors, or the big lug from Fresno? Even though they actually took Judge at #32, if they only had one pick, it’s quite possible that they might have left him on the board. The mind boggles at the possible alternate reality.
Pick #34 was Sean Manaea, who wouldn’t have been a bad consolation prize.
So yeah, that was a pretty damn valuable #33 pick (in an otherwise fairly crappy draft).
KW
17 Jul 25 at 8:53 pm
@KW, don’t get me wrong, If it wasn’t clear how much I hated the Soriano signing, in the immediate and soon after, then I can certainly state it. Losing your 1st round pick for a RELIEVER FA signing was beyond malpractice. It was an overreaction to Storen’s 2012 playoff performance (where, if one recalls, he had a inning-ending pitch that caught half the plate called a ball in the critical game-ending AB), basically destroyed Storen’s confidence as a contributor for the team, and for what? For a 1-bWAR one-inning closer? We give up a comp 1st round pick that had a decent chance from the get go of being a contributor. Just so dumb.
Todd Boss
18 Jul 25 at 8:36 am
NDFA Tracking: here’s the two sites i know of
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2025-mlb-undrafted-free-agent-tracker-agreements-for-all-30-teams/
https://d1baseball.com/prospects/2025-undrafted-free-agent-signings-tracker/
I have added Williams to the 2025 draft tracker tab.
Todd Boss
18 Jul 25 at 8:37 am
Fun link: i was doign some googling for social media stuff related to our picks and found this link:
https://www.maxpreps.com/news/E1mamfwlfkG4DjynueJcTg/2025-preseason-maxpreps-all-america-high-school-baseball-team.htm
Its the MaxPreps pre-season 2025 all-Americans, published in January. All four of our HS picks were on this list. As were pretty much every other top-1st round prep talent (Holliday, Hernandez, Carlson, etc).
Todd Boss
18 Jul 25 at 8:49 am
Also, i’m adding Twitter/Instagram links for our top guys, which has proven interesting b/c they have links to video. So if you want to see what harmon and Sime look like on the mound, hit up their twitter accounts.
Todd Boss
18 Jul 25 at 8:52 am
BA review of our draft class: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/washington-nationals-2025-mlb-draft-review/
tl/dr: Willits is teh “most rounded player” in the draft, they loved James in 5th. They think he was a 1st rounder and say he could be “tough” to sign, so if we’re putting $3M on Harmon as alleged, James may not get signed. also called out 12th rounder Moore as someone who is better than his draft spot.
Todd Boss
18 Jul 25 at 1:23 pm
@KW I hated the punting of the pick for Soriano at the time, and agree with Todd on all the reasons that it made little sense (except possibly as a favor to Boras, who doesn’t really return favors).
That said, the “oooh, look who the team could have drafted instead” and using the best player available at the time as the example of their loss is seriously weighting the scales. The vast majority of players whom the Nats lost out by sacrificing the pick amounted to little or nothing. Which you obliquely note with your observation that the draft was otherwise pretty crappy. It’s (somewhat) better odds than picking a winning lottery ticket, but the principle (that draft pick/lottery ticket isn’t valued at the best case outcome but, more properly, valued as the likelihood of a positive outcome) is the same.
John C.
18 Jul 25 at 3:06 pm
I think the “what if” game is fun, though once you’re at pick 30 the plausible alternatives are just too numerous.
I continue to think there’s a HUGE and very plausible “what if” involving Skenes. If PIT picked Crews and the Nats picked Skenes like everyone was predicting, I think Mike Rizzo still has a job.
Derek
18 Jul 25 at 3:52 pm
Oh, I’m FULLY aware that’s it gets pretty random who a team picks after the first 10-15 players. It’s quite possible that the Nats would have passed on Judge, as a lot of teams had already done. Judge started for three seasons at Fresno, during which his homer totals were 2, 4, and 12. Neither was the ridiculous power evident for his first few years as a pro.
The college pitchers taken after #33 were:
#34 Manaea 15.1 WAR, 229 MLB games
#36 Aaron Blair (barely made the majors)
#38 Michael Lorenzen 12.1 WAR, 386 MLB games
#39 Corey Knebel 5.5 WAR, 312 MLB games
So that was really a pretty healthy stretch in the draft. But no guarantees.
And for the record, while I was a bit confused over whether the Nats actually needed Soriano, I bought into the hope that one more bullpen piece was perhaps the missing piece.
@Derek, while I would love for the Nats to have Skenes, I don’t think he would change the trajectory of this set of misfit toys THAT much. He has 4.8 bWAR, so taking that at face value, you flip five wins for the Nats, they’re still only at 43-53 and 10 games out of a wild card slot.
Also, I’m still pretty bullish on Crews, although I feel like I’m on an increasingly small island. He’s only 23 years old and has a brutal .233 BABIP. His hard-hit rate of 40.9% is above league average. He just needs to sacrifice a chicken or something. The kid needs some luck!
KW
18 Jul 25 at 4:31 pm
Willits and the Nats have agreed to terms. Presser at Nats Park tomorrow.
Pilchard
18 Jul 25 at 4:40 pm
The rest of the 2013 draft was an interesting one for the Nats. Jake Johansen in the 2d round was a huge reach for someone with a 5.40 ERA at a small college, only a 7.6 K9, and a frightening 11.1 H9. But at 6-6, 235, he really filled out a uniform.
That said, if you look at the results of the picks that followed, it was pretty much a wasteland, so they didn’t miss on anyone by taking him.
The 3d round reach for Drew Ward was fine. I’m fine with reaching for high schoolers at that stage. In general he didn’t suck nearly as badly as Johansen did.
Pivetta in the 4th was a terrific pick. Trading him for the Boston Strangler, not so much. Bravo to the area scout who found the tall Canadian at a junior college in Hobbs, NM. He’s currently having a career year with the Padres at age 32.
All in all, Voth was a decent return on a 5th rounder. He wasn’t great overall, but he had some strong starts at key times in 2019.
KW
18 Jul 25 at 4:53 pm
Is it just me, or does it seem like Finnegan hits a rut every year around trade deadline time and devalues himself? Maybe the strong outing from Soroka will get some notice, though.
KW
19 Jul 25 at 7:51 am
I think the big problem with Finnegan is that he’s just not very good and the rest of baseball knows it. He was on the trade market last year and the FA market in the offseason and we all saw what happened. He’s worth something on the trade market this year—just not much.
Agree that subbing Skenes on this roster and changing nothing else does not turn the team into a winner. The logic is that having Skenes not only means the difference between Skenes and Crews right now,* but it means a much better offseason. Skenes and Gore at the top of a rotation is…excellent. Perhaps excellent enough for the club to have tried to put together a real bullpen and do better than Josh Bell. Anyway, enough words on this “what if.” I do, however, think this illustrates how very small differences can change the trajectory of a franchise.
*KW, I am with you on Crews island. The peripherals are good, and the guy has always performed. Sometimes it just takes a little time
Derek
19 Jul 25 at 9:28 am
In looking at Finnegan’s stats, there’s a curious and dramatic home/road split:
Road: .193/.299/.298 (All-Star)
Home: .301/.342/.493 (near bum)
He also has a positively weird stat where he’s getting clobbered by guys who hit 1, 3, 5, and 7 in the order but is dominating 2, 4, 6, 8, and 9. Maybe he should just intentionally walk every other batter?
2025 splits: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=finneky01&year=2025&t=p
His overall season numbers show a decline this year, one that the Nats read correctly when they non-tendered him and no one else signed him. The Nats then rounded him up along with a bunch of other cheap, homeless (team-less) relievers when even a small amount of spending could have meant a fair amount of improvement.
Finnegan is one of those guys who has had a much better ERA throughout his career than his FIP. Only in 2022 did his FIP basically confirm his ERA.
KW
19 Jul 25 at 12:09 pm
Willits signed for $8.2M, 74% of slot and a few ticks lower than I think we were all expecting. And Sime apparently got $2M.
My initial thoughts are, one, the Willits number makes me very confident the team is going to get everyone signed (except probably Mason Pike). Two, I’m wondering if that $2M per guess of Todd’s ends up being close to right. And, three, I guess it was pretty important that Willit skipped the combine physical.
Does anyone think there’s a chance that the deal could have been locked in early enough that he skipped the combine at the Nats’ request? That doesn’t really fit the timings that I usually hear about with the draft, but skipping it also seems like a weird choice for a player for whom 75% of 1-1 is very much in the potential bonus range. So I’m really curious if they’d already come to these terms and he’s agreed not to go.
SMS
19 Jul 25 at 3:40 pm
Willits signing proof: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6503061/2025/07/19/washington-nationals-sign-first-pick-eli-willits/
Then, Heyman is reporting S2M. https://bsky.app/profile/jonheyman.bsky.social/post/3lubgc3rpgc26
The numbers still work out if Petry gets a slight haircut of $1.75, Harmon gets 3, and James or Pike gets 1.5 I still think Harmon gets less, James more, Pike nada.
Todd Boss
19 Jul 25 at 5:00 pm
IN BA’s post-draft writeup, they had some interesting things to say about the decision to pick him. Basically, they think there was a huge fight in the nats Front Office abut approaches to this draft; they think that most of the Nats new staff fell in love with Willits early, but that Rizzo’s more old school feel leaned more to Anderson. They think it came to a head, with ownership looking to make a move after the end of teh season and basically said, “ok axe him now, get the players you want.” Which has led us to pick four high risk/high reward prep kids in a completely new approach.
Skipping combine for Willits? I don’t think the combine would have had anything to benefit Wilits; he was projecting top 5 already, and its not like he was going to change someone’s mind by that point.
$8.2 is a huge haircut. But, everyone i’m seeing so far is taking massive discounts off slot values. Strange draft.
Todd Boss
19 Jul 25 at 5:03 pm
Exactly right about Willits skipping the combine. His curious helium had already taken hold, and all he could have done at the combine was deflate it. Could Holliday have changed opinions at the combine? Probably not. What kept him out of 1/1 likely was more price tag than projection.
I still think the Nats have taken a big gamble with how they have played this, both in high risk of whether the high schoolers will make it, and in the delayed help for a squad that desperately needs an infusion. If you swore to me that they’re going to go out and sign five of the top 10 free agents, then it might make a heck of a lot of sense. But if they’re going to keep shopping at thrift stores, it puts them in perilous straits.
KW
19 Jul 25 at 5:42 pm
Uh, guys – my point about the combine was around the de jure requirement to offer 75% of slot to anyone who take a combine physical.
Maybe the Nats would have gone a different direction if Willits’s number was a 100k higher, but I think it’s pretty likely that the position of “I’ll take the minimum allowed – 75% of slot” would have been enough to get the deal done, and that would have gotten Willits an extra 100k.
SMS
19 Jul 25 at 8:39 pm
So, i’m reading this draft as two main things:
1. There’s a new team in town calling the shots, and they’re focused on prep kids. We drafted more top-round prep kids this year than in the last four drafts combined.
2. I can’t help but think this means they’ll be waving the white flag on the current set of players w/r/t a “rebuild.” They’ve drafted nobody who has any shot of appearing in the majors for several years.
Boswell wrote a pretty scathing article on the situation about the Lerners, basically saying that if they weren’t willing to keep a competitive team on the field with payroll, they should sell. I tend to agree.
Todd Boss
20 Jul 25 at 10:23 am
Boz: “This ‘rebuild’ is precariously close to becoming a collapse.” Yes. About the only surprising point in his column was that his preference is for the Lerners to retain ownership of the team . . . if they will spend. If one of the most powerful, entrenched executives in the league (Rizzo) couldn’t convince them to spend, an interim crew in the front office has no prayer.
@SMS, if Willits went to the combine and had his lack of power on full display, his risk was losing millions. In comparison, $100k was small potatoes. I’m sure $8.2M is beyond his wildest dreams. (It would be mine.)
KW
20 Jul 25 at 1:10 pm
KLaw on NL East draft picks:
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6496017/2025/07/17/nl-east-draft-grades-picks-mlb-2025/
KW
20 Jul 25 at 1:41 pm
https://www.baseballamerica.com/teams/2013-washington-nationals/prospects/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=post-draft-top-30-prospects-for-every-team&_bhlid=dfb6596abadc03ad66e3fe952d119ed22826cd83
BA’s Nats top 30 prospects with 2025 draftees included. Willits goes directly to #1, OVER Sykora. Sykora was #28 on their overall top 100, which means they clearly have Willits as a top prosect before he even gets going. They slot in the rest of our top 2025 drafteees as follows: PEtry #8, Coy James #9, Harmon #13, Sime #19.
Good to know all five guys are new top 20 prospects. CAn’t say that about last year’s haul necessarily.
Todd Boss
21 Jul 25 at 1:58 pm
gotta love 11M in draft pool money!
FredMD
21 Jul 25 at 2:10 pm
new posted on BA top 30 list.
Todd Boss
22 Jul 25 at 8:37 am