It did not take Baseball America long to provide an updated top 30 for the Washington Nationals (and the rest of the league) post Draft, and I was surprised to see where our 1-1 pick Willits ended up. That would be atop our system rankings.
BA also took the opportunity to “graduate” a few guys and to tweak some of the rankings for players who have struggled badly this year (but, they did not seem to tweak rankings for those who have over-performed this round). They did an early June release of rankings, and now a mid July, so we have a six week differential of ranks that I’ll discuss below.
Here’s the top 30, plus a few in the 31-35 range that were likely “pushed down” by our 2025 top draft picks.
| Rank | First Name | Last Name | Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eli | Willits | SS |
| 2 | Travis | Sykora | RHP (Starter) |
| 3 | Jarlin | Susana | RHP (Starter) |
| 4 | Brady | House | SS/3B |
| 5 | Alex | Clemmey | LHP (Starter) |
| 6 | Luke | Dickerson | SS/CF |
| 7 | Daylen | Lile | OF (CF) |
| 8 | Ethan | Petry | 1B/OF |
| 9 | Coy | James | SS |
| 10 | Cade | Cavalli | RHP (Starter) |
| 11 | Seaver | King | SS |
| 12 | Caleb | Lomavita | C |
| 13 | Landon | Harmon | RHP |
| 14 | Robert | Hassell III | OF (CF) |
| 15 | Jake | Bennett | LHP (Starter) |
| 16 | Yohandy | Morales | 3B |
| 17 | Angel | Feliz | 3B/SS |
| 18 | Tyler | Stuart | RHP (Starter) |
| 19 | Miguel | Sime Jr. | RHP |
| 20 | Brayan | Cortesia | SS |
| 21 | Jackson | Kent | LHP (Starter) |
| 22 | Daniel | Hernandez | C |
| 23 | Andry | Lara | RHP (Starter) |
| 24 | Yoel | Tejada Jr. | RHP (Starter) |
| 25 | Garcia | Davian | RHP (Starter) |
| 26 | Cornelio | Riley | RHP (Starter) |
| 27 | Jorgelys | Mota | SS |
| 28 | Kevin | Bazzell | C/3B |
| 29 | Sam | Peterson | OF (CF) |
| 30 | Sir Jamison | Jones | CA |
| 31 | Cayden | Wallace | 2B/3B |
| 32 | Andrew | Pinckney | OF (Corner) |
| 33 | Elijah | Green | OF (CF) |
| 34 | Cristian | Vaquero | OF (CF) |
| 35 | Robert | Cranz | RHP (Reliever) |
Now for some observations and commentary.
Note: not all five of these new 2025 draft picks have signed as of this writing. I think they will sign because its 2025 and players in the top 10 don’t get drafted unless they’re going to sign, but it does bear mentioning that not all of these players are officially on the team as of this writing on 7/21/25. This mostly applies to 5th rounder James, who seems like he’s a better prospect than two of the prep kids drafted ahead of him, and I wonder if the bonus dollars are there.
- Willits enters BA’s list at 1-1, above Sykora. This is notable because Sykora was ranked 28th the last time that BA did an overall Minor League top 100 list in early July. So that also means Willits is not only starting in BA’s top 100 list for the entirety of the minors, he’s starting it likely in the 20-25 range. That’s heady territory. Crews started his pro career ranked #4 on BA’s July 2023 post draft list for some context.
- 2025 2nd Rounder Ethan Petry pops in at #8 and 5th rounder Coy James at #9. These two slot in right ahead of Cavalli, King, and Lomavita. Interesting how our 2025 picks start out ahead of our two top 2024 picks (Dickerson notwithstanding of course).
- The more i’m reading about this James guy, the more I’m thinking this 5th rounder is a massive steal.
- Landon Harmon comes in at #13, and our last big-time bonus guy from this draft Miguel Sime comes in at #19. That seems about right for untested/high risk Prep RHPs.
Those are the new guys. How about changes to existing player ranks relative to where they were last month, and accounting for the five new guys slotting in? Here’s what’s happened in the last 6 weeks:
- Players ranked 2-7 have not changed since June. Should they? Yeah probably: House is starting in the majors but is behind Susana, who has missed two months. Clemmey and Dickerson have really impressed. Lile made it to the show but hasn’t stuck in the starting lineup. Would you adjust these guys up or down a bit? Yes.
- All the players ranked around the five new names have mostly stayed ranked the same … except for those we’re about to talk about.
- Wallace has taken a massive nosedive: he was #16 six weeks ago and is now out of the top 30 entirely. Talk about a weird turn of events for him so far this season.
- Same with Bazzell: he’s been dropped more than 10 spots in the last two months.
- Minor slotting changes for Stuart (still on the DL) and Cortesia, who they inexplicably DROPPED a slot relative to his ranking in June despite him hitting .400 for the first month of the DSL. I mean, what else does the guy have to do?
- Same with Cornelio; he’s dropped relative to his ranking 6 weeks ago. Um, explain that to me like i’m a 5 year old. in 2025, Cornelio made 7 starts with a 3.03 ERA in High-A, got promoted, and has IMPROVED his numbers in AA. He’s dominating there, with a 2.32 ERA, a 1.01 whip, a .169 BAA. I mean, how does this guy get dropped down in relative rankings, even if you’re not doing a full re-evaluation?
- Sam Peterson and Sir Jamison Jones get ranked for the first time at #29 and #30.
- The five guys now pushed outside of the top 30, if I just take the five missing names from June’s rankings, are in order Wallace, Pinckney, Green, Vaquero, and Cranz. Can’t really complain about any of these five now being outside the top 30, based on who got added and how they’ve played in 2025.
- Maaaaaybe you can complain about Cranz, who’s got a 2.02 ERA this season and has crushed it, albeit in low-A as a 22yr old. But hey, he’s a reliever. I don’t think relievers, backup catchers, or utility infielders belong in the top 30 of any system, but that’s just me.
Who’s missing?
- We’ve now apparently graduated Lord, Henry, and Rutledge due to mostly service time (Lord has more than the 50 ip, while Henry & Rutledge will soon enough). They were ranked 14, 15, and in the mid-30s in June.
- No Victor Hurtado, our $2.8M bonus baby from the 2023 IFA class, who continues to struggle repeating the DSL as an 18 yr old, even if Fangraphs loves him (and has him #15 in the system).
- No Armando Cruz, our $3.9M bonus baby from the 2021 IFA class either. At some point production talks, not dollars.
- Rafael Ramirez Jr has been on the edges of top 30s since his acquisition, but has been hurt all year.
- No Kevin Made, who hit .352 in June and (so far) .088 in July.
- No Nasim Nunez, what ever you think of this guy. A glove can only take you so far (he’s hitting .196 in AAA this year).
I’m not as down on Willits as some, but that’s very aggressive.
I guess you could have a pessimistic take on Sykora’s and Susana’s injuries, and if you have them falling back, slotting Willits in above them fits. But I think this is more likely just part of the systemic overvaluing of new draftees. Like when almost every shop immediately put Crews above Wood – that never made any sense.
Another thing that jumps out is that I think there’s much less of a gap between Lile and Hassell, and that this ranking ignores Lile’s unplayable defense and Hassell’s 150 wRC+ since being optioned back to AAA. I have them like 9th and 11th or something, not 7th and 14th.
SMS
22 Jul 25 at 10:48 am
Feeling a little better about Susana. He only went 2 IP in his last start, but there was a rain delay after 2, so he wasn’t “pulled early” as much as “called it a day in the rain.” We’ll know more in a few days. If he’s really OK, I’m feeling really good about his future. His motion looks as effortless/bored as Livan Hernandez but throws a lot harder.
kevin r
22 Jul 25 at 11:42 am
Willits has a very high “floor” but a more limited ceiling. A good comparison in 2025 draft is Ethan Holliday, who has a lower floor (i.e. more risk he doesn’t pan out) but a higher ceiling (because he could turn into a better version of his dad). There’s a ton of value to having a worst case scenario of being like a backup INF in the majors. So, now we just hope that, hey he’s only 17 and could gain 50ls of muscle and suddenly turn into a monster. He’s 6’1″ ..he’s not a 5’8″ shrimp. I sense a lot of people think he’s this little guy who will turn into like Jamey Carroll.
Should he be instantly higher than Sykora? Not for me, but I don’t have a problem putting him close to it. I’m not worried about a Sykora tweak.
Susana; just the fact that he’s back on the mound is massive right now. I thought for sure it was TJ when he went down two months ago.
Todd Boss
22 Jul 25 at 11:55 am
I’ve tempered my criticisms of the Willits pick a bit over the past week but it’s just nonsense to think he’s a more valuable prospect than Sykora at this particular point in time. What do we think the shortstop battling line in A and A+ have to be to be considered similar to Sykora’s sub-2.00 FIP at both stops? It wouldn’t need to be quite at the 200 WRC+ levels Juan Soto put up because Willits is a SS, but we’re talking 150+. I would be delighted for Willits to do that, but let’s see it first before claiming he’s a better prospect than Sykora.
Derek
22 Jul 25 at 12:00 pm
There’s a bit of Nat-related MLB history taking place tonight. Rich Hill is appearing with his 14th team, tying former Nat Edwin Jackson. Except . . . Hill should be appearing with his 15th different team. The Nats had him at Syracuse in 2015, where he had a 2.91 ERA, but the Nats didn’t have a spot for him in the rotation with the big club. Boston picked him up, and he finished the season in Beantown. A year later, the Nats were facing him in the playoffs when he was a Dodger starter for two of the NLDS games. In 2016, the year after the Nats passed on him, Hill posted a 2.12 ERA across 20 starts. (Admittedly, the Nats had a strong rotation at the time.)
KW
22 Jul 25 at 10:03 pm
FYI, the Big Board now has our 2025 draft class loaded into XST, and the Draft Tracker is updated for latest signing announcements.
As of this writing we’ve officially signed 15 of the 20 draftees. We should get 3 more (Petry, Harmon, James) announced soon. The remaining two may not sign: 17th rounder may go back for one more season and 19th rounder will go to college.
Todd Boss
23 Jul 25 at 10:40 am
So we now see that Holiday demanded $800k more than Willits – or about what was likely needed for one of our overslot high schoolers. I could see preferring either side of that deal, but I think I’m happy with the Willits pick. As an organization, we’re just not good at improving players’ hit tools. Maybe Willits grows into a little power, and maybe he doesn’t, but I think Holiday is a particularly bad fit for our system.
Looking over the other bonuses, the ones I think I’d have found tempting are Hernandez or Doyle with another $1M in savings. But I do think both of those would have quote a bit more downside risk than Willits. Having a 20th percentile outcome of “useful bench player” isn’t anything to sneeze at.
SMS
23 Jul 25 at 10:50 am
And actually I just realized something.
Both Doyle and Hernandez attended the combine. So we couldn’t have signed them for less than $8.3M.
Which means they weren’t even really options for us.
SMS
23 Jul 25 at 10:52 am
Here’s the signing tracker as it stands:
https://www.mlb.com/draft/tracker
The Nats got only a $600K discount over what Anderson signed for, $800K over Holliday, while Doyle signed for $995K less, and Arquette for 1.05M less. I’m still not seeing how we got any kind of better deal here.
KW
23 Jul 25 at 10:53 am
Even the most optimistic evals of Willits make his ceiling out to be an MLB SS with a good average and 10-15 homers. To that I would say, relative to the BA rankings, that the Nats are really screwed if Sykora, House, and at least one between Susana and Clemmey aren’t better than that level of player. I think several others can be, but that’s a different can of worms. My point is that you need your higher-ceiling stars to reach those ceilings or you have problems.
KW
23 Jul 25 at 11:01 am
@KW – if any player is drafted 1-1 you can reasonably expect they would demand more than if they were drafted later. No?
FredMD
23 Jul 25 at 11:10 am
Not necessarily. One of his big selling points was said to be that he was asking less than Holliday and Anderson. It just didn’t turn out to be that much less. And presumably Doyle or Arquette could have been had for less than Willits.
We’ll see how it turns out. Color me skeptical.
KW
23 Jul 25 at 11:55 am
Doyle went to the combine. The Nats were not allowed to sign him for less than $8.3M.
And in general you can’t assume you’d win an auction by matching the winning bid. If we had wanted to sign Holiday or Anderson, I’d expect we’d have to beat their eventual numbers by a few hundred thousand.
But all of that is really beside the point. If you accept KW’s projection of Willits, then the pick was probably a mistake. But I’m not sure how you can be so confident about how strong a 17 year old elite athlete will be when they’re 23.
Holiday has the exact type of swing issues that the Nats have failed again and again to fix. And Anderson is already 4 years in on his second elbow. I’m certainly not in mourning that we passed up on those guys.
SMS
23 Jul 25 at 12:05 pm
That’s not MY projection, that’s Keith Law’s projection — 10 to 15 homer power at best. Others have said similar things.
Law: “His swing is compact and geared toward contact, without a lot of lift or length to the ball to create more power. He does have room to fill out, especially in his lower half, and his contact quality should improve to the point that it can support higher batting averages, although I think he’ll top out at 45 (below-average) power. He’s a definite shortstop with soft, easy hands, a plus arm, and plus running speed, with the upside of 70 defense. His floor is pretty high because he can defend and make contact, which would at least make him a utility infielder, with above-average upside if he gets strong enough to get to some doubles power and hit .300 or so.”
As I’ve said before, I would be glad for Willits to prove me wrong, but even if he achieves his projected ceiling, it isn’t very high. I sure hope we get something more than this from House, from Sykora, and from a few others.
Also, I would have been fine with giving Doyle $8.3M over $8.2 for Willits. They still could have done exactly the same side deals.
KW
23 Jul 25 at 3:08 pm
Harmon and James both sign for $2.5M. If my math is correct, that pretty much exhausts the remaining savings
Petry gets about slot and they’re done. No chance there’s enough left for Pike.
Todd, I’d say that’s not too far off from your guess. Nice!
SMS
24 Jul 25 at 12:25 pm
I don’t honestly think the Nats were looking at Willis vs Doyle and saying “oh well we can get Doyle for $900k less.” I honestly think the scouting team, all of whom came from more progressive organizations and who probably struggled with Rizzo’s generation-old approach, immediately pivoted to the player who most analytical-model heavy teams had ranked 1-1; Willits. Combination of age, floor, current skills, and what he can grow into.
A “70 defender” is no joke. That’s gold glove calibre. A GG short stop who can hit .300? Pretty rare air.
It’s Jim Callis reporting both $2.5M deals for Harmon and James. That leaves Petry actually able to get a bit more than slot; If he got exactly $2M that gives them a few bucks in the 5% cushion left. I’ve got it all in the draft tracker now.
Todd Boss
24 Jul 25 at 3:07 pm
I think that’s right, Todd. This team liked Willits the best. Or maybe they liked Holiday or Andersen a tiny bit better but didn’t want to give up Sime. But even in that case, it only makes sense if they had it as basically a tie.
The reason youth pops in the models is that it pops in the training data. And, just to my intuition, it seems at least as easy to try and develop power as feel to hit.
I for one am really looking forward to tracking the development of a hit-over-power bat. I’m not sure I remember the last one (FV45 or higher) in our system.
SMS
24 Jul 25 at 4:05 pm
FYI our 18th rounder posted on twitter that he will return to Penn State. So i’m turning him into “won’t sign” on the tracker. I think once Petry signs for about $2M we’re done.
Todd Boss
25 Jul 25 at 2:25 pm