With so many “senior signs” this year (five), I thought it’d be interesting to see our history with these guys and how they’ve turned out.
For definition purposes, a “Senior Sign” is a College Senior or a college player with no remaining eligibility who is drafted usually in the 8th, 9th, or 10th round entirely to save bonus dollars on their pick to allocate that money elsewhere in the draft. Usually these players sign for $10k these days, though in the early days we often gave them $25-$30k. The deck is already stacked against these guys: the team has almost zero bonus dollars invested in them, they’re already “old” the moment they arrive in Florida, and they have to be doubly as good as a guy with even a slot bonus in order to stick around.
Not only that, but (as a senior sign himself once told me), these guys generally have finished four years of college, may even have a degree, and find themselves at 22 or even 23 heading to a spring training facility full of 18-19 yr olds coming over from the DSL who barely speak English, are just as good but 4 years younger, and who are killing themselves for a few hundred dollars a week. These guys may say to themselves, “man, these guys are just as good as me but 4 years younger and with a ton more bonus dollars” and just hang ’em up.
The concept of these senior draftee draft picks in the back half of the top 10 rounds really only begun existing and being important starting with the draft slotting/bonus cap timeframe, which was implemented starting with the 2012 draft. So, we’ll go through these Senior signs starting with the 2012 class.
2012:
- Craig Manuel, C. 10th round $25k from Rice. Played for 4 years, made it to AA as a mostly backup catcher. had some local ties (born in Rockville MD). Decent career.
- Derek Self, RHP Reliever 9th round $25k from Louisville. Played out his entire 6-year ML contract with us, made it to AAA as a solid middle reliever. That’s a great outcome.
2013:
- David Napoli, RHP reliever 8th round $15k from Tulane. Couldn’t make the jump to High-A released after three seasons.
- Jake Joyce, RHP reliever 9th round $15k from Va Tech. Got one season in Short-A bullpen, released. This is basically the floor for a senior sign; one season in the pros, then cut.
- Brennan Middleton, SS 10th round $15k sign from Tulane. Two years in Low-A, released.
2014:
- Matthew Page, OF 10th round $30k from Oklahoma Baptist: Hung around for four years, got to High-A before released.
2015:
- David Kerian, 1B 9th round $25k from Illinois: released from Short-A after two seasons in Auburn.
- Taylor Guilbeau, LHP 10th round $25k from Alabama: turned into a decently effective LHP reliever for years, flipped to Seattle to help acquire Hunter Strickland in 2019. Got called up to Seattle’s MLB team, then got hurt. Waived, claimed by AZ, outrighted in 2021, then released. Shoulder injuries are brutal sometimes. First of our Sr. Signs to make the majors, though not with us.
2016:
- Joey Harris, C 9th rounder $10k from Gonzaga: played a year in rookie ball, got hurt and missed all of 2017, then released at the end of 2018 from low-A.
- Paul Panaccionne, SS 10th rounder $10k from Grand Canyon. played parts of 3 seasons and retired.
2017:
- Jared Brasher, RHP 8th rounder $10k from Samford: a weird one: he was in his 3rd season in Low-A and was pitching decently mid 2019 season when he was suddenly released. He had a sub 3.00 ERA but a lot of walks just prior to being released. I wonder if this was off-the-field related.
2018:
- Cropley, Tyler, C 8th rounder 10k from Iowa; we released him in 2020, but he got picked up by Kansas City and made it to AAA with them, even getting an NRI to MLB camp in 2024. Released ST 2024. Not a bad career.
- Driskill, Tanner, RHP 9th 10k from Lamar; missed two full years to injury and Covid, then got shelled in 2021 and was released.
- Shaddy, Carson, 2b 10th rounder 10k from Arkansas-Fayetteville. had one short-A season then retired the next spring.
2019:
- Pratt, Andrew, C, 10th round $10k from Lubbock Christian: missed Covid year, played in 2021 at HighA, and was probably released at the end of the 2021 season. MILB.com never recorded his official release and has him officially still active.
2020:
- Lindsly, Brady, 5th round $10k Ca signing from Oklahoma: Ironic that we signed Cavalli’s college catcher to an underslot deal so we could pay him overslot the same year. But, Lindsly is active to this day, performing classic org-guy backup catcher duties with two NRIs the last two seasons to help with Spring Training catcher duty. He’s 27 now, but still has one more year before hitting 6years in the org.
2021:
- None: we didn’t have a single throw-away signing this year, likely because of the Covid year. We did sign a slew of college “seniors,” but they all likely had another year of eligibility due to the lost season.
2022:
- Stehly, Murphy, 10th round 3B from Texas $10k: As we speak, the starting 3B in AA Harrisburg (thought he just hit the DL) and is slashing .328/.417/.500 there this year. Impressive. Might be one of our best Sr. Signs yet.
2023:
Our first real major foray into draft dollar manipulation, as we needed to find an extra $1.5M or so to sign Sykora. So we punted on 5 picks and got him. Looking like a great decision so far, at least as far as Sykora’s development goes.
- Dugas, Gavin, 6th round 2B from LSU $20k; destroyed low-A pitching in 2024, hasn’t been able to keep it going in High-A but still active.
- Snell, Ryan, 7th round C from Lamar $20k; barely played in rookie league in 2023, then retired mid 2024 before taking the field.
- Simpson, Jared*, 8th round LHP from Iowa $20k: missed almost all of 2024 with injury, but has been a decent middle reliever for High-A this season. Needs to cut down on walks.
- Schultz, Thomas, 9th round RHP from Vanderbilt $20k; has earned two promotions in 2025 and is now in AA bullpen.
- Glasser, Phillip*, 10th round SS/2B from Indiana $20k. Promoted twice in 2024, now hitting .300 starting in AA as a “play anywhere” kind of guy (SS, 2B, LF, etc).
2024:
The Nats took these draft bonuses to a new low, paying two guys just $2k. I mean, did that even cover their flight to Florida?
- Ross, Jackson, 3B 9th rounder from Ole Miss $2k: Bashed his way out of Low-A in a month, struggling in High-A as we speak.
- Johnson, Luke, RHP 10th rounder from UMBC: $2k. Weird usage for Johnson so far; he’s 23 and is basically unhittable in the FCL, was promoted for a spot start (4ip, 2h, 0r) and then was sent back down. He’s just been called back to Low-A to presumably take a spot in the rotation, so we’ll see what he’s got.
2025:
Taking a page out of 2023, we have five senior signs to shake out enough cash to sign three prep kids to overslot deals. Technically Boston Smith getting $50k likely disqualifies him based on my own criteria, but it was still a huge haircut off his $386k slot.
- Boston Smith, C/OF from Wright State $50k; some scouts liked him, and the $50k versus the $5-$10k figure may have factored in here; we probably were competing with other teams looking at him as a senior sign and threw some extra dollars here.
- Julian Tonghini, RHP from Arizona $10k
- Riley Maddox, RHP from Ole Miss $10k
- Wyatt Henseler, 2B/3b from TAMU $10k
- Hunter Hines, 1B from Miss State $5k
So, who has been the best? Probably Guilbeau, the only guy on this list to make the Majors.
The best career might be Derek Self, playing out his entire ML contract. Cropley made it to AAA for another team. Lindsley has been in AAA for a couple years now. Perhaps Stehly has the best shot right now. Clearly the deck is stacked against them.
For better or worse Stehley and Glasser are hitting better than most of the “prospects” in the organization.
Stehley took a while to click at the plate as a pro, but he really seems to have found something at Harrisburg. Yes, it’s built on a .378 BABIP. But he’s putting the ball in play (K rate of only 18%) and good things are happening. He’s slashing .328/.417/.529/.947 at AA with an incredible 180 wRC+. The downside? He’ll turn 27 in September and will be Rule 5-eligible.
Glasser has done nothing but hit since he put on a pro uniform. His MiLB career slash is .303/.391/.413. At AA this year he’s at .308/.382/.401, wRC+ of 136, and a crazy-good K rate of only 11.4%. Not a ton of HR power (3), but he has 13 doubles and 20 stolen bases. As with all senior signees, the clock is ticking fast on him as well. He’ll turn 26 in December.
Is there anything here? You never know until they get a look at higher altitudes. Jacob Young (7th rounder) had a couple of strong carrying tools and unexpectedly turned into something. Jake Alu (24th rounder) really didn’t.
On the other side of the ledger, I had some hopes for Gavin Dugas, the clean-up hitter for national champ LSU. His current numbers at A+ (.186/.287/.298) have his pro career on life support at the moment, though. His K rate of 27.5% isn’t optimal but also isn’t awful. His .241 BABIP indicates that he can’t catch a break. Is playing in Wilmington killing him? Not really. He’s .181 at home and .191 on the road, although four of his five homers have been away from the graveyard.
The most successful of the bunch you have listed undoubtedly was Taylor Guilbeau, who will forever be known as a major leaguer.
I think you’re shorting some guys by confining things to picks 6-10, though, particularly those in the 40-round era who were picked beyond the 20th round and likely got little bonus. Jake Cousins (pick #613) made 88 MLB appearances with other teams. Gabe Klobosits (pick #1093!!!) had a cup of coffee with the Nats. Jake Alu (pick #723, $10K sign) got a 51-game MLB audition.
KW
25 Jul 25 at 5:27 pm
Petry signs for $2.09M. Which, if you look at the draft tracker, is basically the exact amount they had left. They end up leaving $2,600 or so on the table. Well done.
So that’s the class: 18 of 20 sign. Molinaro going back to PSU (as predicted on draft day) and Pike was insurance in case one of our top 5 prep kids didn’t sign.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Qd5DS9GlmkQOEh_zGhOvlhHK0EegqY1uJB4mLGmRBaY/edit?usp=sharing
Todd Boss
26 Jul 25 at 10:10 am
I wonder if that was even their agreed upon deal with Petry – you’ll get whatever is left, and it will be at least slot. I’d also be curious if some teams are stingier with that last 100k than others, or if basically every team spends their 105%.
And I know that none of these guys are “senior signs” by Todd’s definition, but I think it’s pretty impressive that the current 40-man has 5 guys drafted by the Nats to bonuses under $150k.
Parker was 5th rounder, but signed for an underslot $100k. Brzykcy was an UDFA who got, I think, just $20k. Darren Baker got slot in the 10th round, $147k. And Lord and Ribalta were day 3 picks who signed for the max pool exclusion, then $125k.
None of these guys are making an all star team, but it really does seem like the team’s draft practices have improved lately compared they were 6-10 years ago.
SMS
26 Jul 25 at 11:58 am
@SMS on Petry’s bonus: I feel like the Nats have done this in the past, where they tacked on a few thousand more to the last guy standing. I can’t exactly find the example. I’m guessing Petry was promised $2M plus whatever was left, and I’ll also bet his exact bonus amount was not “$2.09M” but 2,092,690 because that exactly takes the Nat’s bonus pool plus 5% overage to $0. someday maybe we’ll get the exact number.
The fact that our current roster has so many guys like you say is full indictment of why were’re not better right now. You EXPECT your 1st and 2nd rounders to turn into major leaguers; you do not expect a 7th rounder or an NDFA to ever appear. Imagine how good this f*cking team would be if every 1st and 2nd rounder in the same draft years as the likes of Young and Parker and Lord fulfilled their scouting report and was in the majors right now.
– Young was a 7th rounder in the 2021 draft: House and Lile were the two top picks, so that’s ok.
– Lord was an 18th rounder in 2022 draft: Where’s Green and Bennett? low-a swinging at ghosts and recovering from 1.5 years missed.
– Parker was a 5th rounder in 2020 draft: Cavalli is sh*tting the bed in AAA and Infante was inexplicably released already
– Ribalta was a 12th rounder in 2019 draft: 1st rounder Rutledge has turned into a replacemet-level reliever.
– Irvin: 4th rounder in 2018: our top three picks that year were Denaburg, Cate, Schaller. wastes.
You want to know why the Nats aren’t competitive? It’s not just the money. It’s years of 1st and 2nd rounder failures. 2017: top picks Romero and Crowe. wastes. 2016: Kieboom, Dunning, Neuse, Luzardo: none of these guys ever did anything for us and half were trade bait. you can miss on one major pick every few years, but not every 1st and 2nd rounder for a decade.
Todd Boss
26 Jul 25 at 4:31 pm
Todd,If your expectation is that your first and second round picks all become major leaguers, you are doomed to disappointment. Look at any draft, you will find that many (most?) of the players taken in the first two rounds don’t make much impact at all at the MLB level even if they do get a courtesy call up. They may be somewhat more likely to get to The Show, but that’s with the significant boost of their draft status.
John C.
27 Jul 25 at 11:24 am
“Twenty of the hitters Washington drafted and signed since 2012 have reached the majors. Those players have a combined oWAR of just 1.2 at the MLB level through Sunday’s games. That includes their time with other teams, not just Washington.”
The next-lowest team is the also excrementally bad Rockies with 28 oWAR. The MLB average for that period is 63 oWAR.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2025/07/08/nationals-drafting-development-problems/
It is established fact, not opinion, that the Nats have wasted more than a decade of drafts. Of course no team consistently hits on every pick. But the Nats statistically have been the worst with their picks by a country mile.
I was reminded of the saddest part of all of this while reading Boz’s remarks from his speech at the Hall of Fame yesterday. He talked about how the Nats’ 2019 championship created “a whole new generation of fans.” But the team those fans loved soon fell apart. It was the oldest team in baseball, had guys that the front office couldn’t, wouldn’t, or shouldn’t sign, and had a farm system hollowed out by poor drafting and development. By 2022, everything completely collapsed.
KW
27 Jul 25 at 2:16 pm
John C is 100% right on this.
Take 2020. Cavalli was picked 22nd for slot. Of the 21 names picked ahead of him, only 7 have either (1) debuted in the majors and accumulated more fWAR than Cavalli (0.1) or (2) have rookie eligibility intact and are ranked higher by FG than Cavalli (FV 45). Another 2 are tied along their more favorable dimension, one in WAR and one in FV. A full 12 have been worth less value in the majors and are a less projectable prospect going forward. And those were the folks selected ahead of Cavalli.
The guy picked after him was released a year ago. The guy picked after that was just released this month. Drafting is really hard, and you don’t have to go much past 1-1 before the median outcome falls below “regular contributor”.
I agree that there was a good 6-7 year period of substandard drafts (though I don’t understand why trade bait is a bad outcome), but it looks to me like the program began to right itself in 2020. I’m definitely not as out on Cavalli as you are, and with Henry, Parker and Brzykcy, that looks like a solid draft class to me.
And once you get to 2022 or 2023, it’s just way too early to evaluate.
SMS
27 Jul 25 at 2:41 pm
@JohnC: yeah that is the expectation. Because 1st and 2nd rounders are the best players in any draft. More 1st rounders make it than 2nd rounders, more 2nd rounders than 3rd, etc.
Yes i’m aware that, in reality, not every 1st/2nd rounder makes it. Duh.
The point is this: Nats 1st and 2nd round performance has been absolutely abhorrent in the last 10-15 y ears. 2nd rounders especially. I’ve done this before, but here’s every 2nd round pick by Rizzo, in reverse order chronologically from 2025:
– Petry, Dickerson, Morales, Bennett, Lile, Infante, no 2019 2nd rounder, Cate, Crowe, Neuse, Stevenson, Perkins, Suarez (didn’t sign), Johansen, Renda, No 2011 2nd rounder, Solis, Kobernus
That’s a patently ridiculous tale of awful draft picks. From 2009 to 2020 NOT ONE significant major league player. Two lost picks to FA signings, one refused to sign, and a slew of players who at best turned into negative career bWAR major leagues.
Even the last few drafts of guys is problematic. We’ve already released Infante. Lile, Bennett, Morales: are these guys projecting to be starters in the majors? Dickerson looks promising; well he should be b/c he got paid like a mid 1st rounder. But year after year this organization blew the 2nd most important pick in its draft.
Todd Boss
28 Jul 25 at 8:30 am
@Todd: on the fundamentals, I don’t really think that we’re far apart. We both agree that the Nats’ draft record, particularly 2012-2020, was awful. What caught my eye was the idea that one EXPECTS the 1st and 2nd round picks to be major leaguers. To me, that’s ridiculous when most of them, no matter what team is doing the drafting, won’t make it.
Phrase it as a goal, or an expectation that SOME of those players make it, and I wouldn’t have batted an eye. Whether that’s simply semantics or not, beats me. But on the core issue – Rizzo led an organization that was bad at drafting for years and it ultimately cost him his job – we seem to be on the same page.
John C.
28 Jul 25 at 12:30 pm
I once tried to articulate what a reasonable goal is for a draft. You draft 20 players. What do you expect, realistically, of that draft? Leaving out over-slot bonuses that turn 5th rounders in to 1st rounders … here’s what I think:
– 1st and 2nd rounders: you expect at least one MLB regular and one producer player. The higher the 1st rounder, the more you expect a near all-star. If you draft 1-1 you expect a multi-year all star.
– 3rd-5th round: you hope for one MLB producer guy
– 6th-10th: if you get one guy who becomes a MLB replacement player you’re happy (unless of course you sign nothing but college SRs in this range).
– 11th-20th: if you get even one MLBer, its a massive success. If these guys get to AAA or AA its a win.
So this basically expects a team to get at least 4 major leaguers out of every draft; a regular, two producers, and one replacement level guy. Is that too much to expect out of a draft? Why or Why not?
How does this look in our reality? Lets go back to 2020 and see how this evaluation system looks for a few drafts…
– 2020: Cavalli (1st), Henry (2nd): one MLB producer. Parker (5th): one replacement-level player. Shortened draft so hard to judge.
– 2019: Rutledge (1st): replacement player. 3rd-5th rounders: all released. 6th-10th: all failures. Ribalta (11th) is a win. Generally I think this is a failure of a draft.
– 2018: Denaburg and Cate: fails. Irvin as a 4th rounder; win. 6th-10th: 3 senior signs, nobody close. 11th on: couple of MLFAs, that’s it. Draft is a massive failure.
– 2017: Romero and Crowe: already a failure; just a bad 1st round decision. 34d-5th: fails. 6th-10th: Tetreault made the majors but did nothing. 11th on: Klobotsis making majors as a 36th rounder is amazing.
–
Todd Boss
28 Jul 25 at 12:50 pm
Todd, I think this is a good way to think about it, but that your estimates are too optimistic.
About a third of the league came in as an IFA, so I’m just going to half your numbers and add them in to estimate the total quality of players joining the team in an average year.
1.5 regulars – which I’ll define as 2+ WAR/yr starting pitchers and position players. Maybe a super utility guy hits that threshold but mostly this is everyday players.
3 producers – ~1 WAR/year players. This is good bullpen arms, reliable bench pieces and platoon bats. Some backend starters.
1.5 replacement players – Middling bullpen arms. SP depth. Injury call ups.
Let me know if any of those definitions feel far from what you were thinking. But, if not, consider this. Ignore the replacement players, but the producers last 6 years on average (some get dropped in late arb, but some stick around into FA, so I think that’s fair). And the regulars last, say, 8 years. (I think that’s conservative since stars last 15, but I don’t have a quick way to pull that data, so let’s say 8.)
That’s would mean a team should expect to have 30 players, producers and regulars, active at any time. 900 league wide. But in each of the last few years the actual number of 1+ WAR players is around 400 – less than half the rate implied by your expected draft success. Even going down to 0.5 WAR never reached 600 players.
So I agree with John – you’re correct that the Nats were bad at drafting, though I’m hopeful they’ve improved. But the standard you lay out is an unrealistic one.
SMS
28 Jul 25 at 1:29 pm
@SMS: if I thought the team would expect 4 players to “hit” from every draft (1 regular, 1 producer, 2 replacement) … is that actually LESS than what you just laid out? Because, understanding that 1/3 of the league are IFAs … but the “hit” rate on IFAs is absolutely abhorrent. Check out our performance in this regard: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ksPorXhEHhtkNAGqxrJWqUFkvioMgoWhBU50uaZstc8/edit?gid=0#gid=0
If you get even two players out of an IFA class to even reach the majors its a win. Quick squint at our IFA classes and how many even got to eh majors: 2015: 1 (Soto). 2016 3 (Garcia=regular, Pineda and Adon=replacement). 2017: 1 (Ferrer = replacement to barely producing). 2018: zero. 2019: 1 Lara=replacement. 2021 and upwards way too early. Yes the Nats suck at IFA development, but this is not a great track record either.
Todd Boss
29 Jul 25 at 9:44 am