Nationals Arm Race

With the draft now compressed to just two days, we’ve had to punch out a ton of content real quickly. Here was our quick reaction to the 1-1 pick Eli Willits, then we did a post on the first 10 rounds of picks, which seemed to include one top pick with a big haircut, one near-slot slugger, three prep kids who need over-slot deals, then five senior signs.

Here’s the rest of our draft, which comprises guys we’ve never heard of but will nonetheless lookup their stats where available and pass some judgement.

Here’s the two main draft tracker resources you need and that I’m updating this week once the draft is complete.

• Nationals Draft Tracker: this is the long-running Google XLS with all our picks dating to 2005. There’s two tabs here: the main page with every pick, then a deeper-dive 2025 Draft pick with slot bonus breakdowns and other information on each pick.
• MLB’s Draft Tracker, the best of various options of Draft Trackers out there.

---

Here’s links to major Prospect Rankings shops that I’ll reference below when assessing the “value” of the pick. I’m not expecting a ton of the 11-20th rounds to have any top-XXX rankings honestly.

• Baseball America top 500 (paywall)
• The Athletic/Keith Law top 100 Draft board, (paywall)
• MLBpipeline expanded top 250 Draft Board
• Fangraphs FV-based Draft Board
• ESPN Top 250 Draft Prospects for 2025
• Prospects1500 Top 250 Draft board released 7/7/25
• Baseball Prospectus MLB Draft Big Board for 2025 posted 7/3/25 (paywall)
• ProspectsLive Final Top 400 Draft board released 7/12/25 (paywall past top 10)

Other useful tools while evaluating these guys:

• MLB 2025 Combine Attendees:
• D1baseball Transfer Portal at d1baseball.com, also same at Baseball America, both paywall

---

• 11th Round, #321 Overall: Jack Moroknek, Coll Jr. OF from Butler

Ranks by major shops: BA=398

Morokneck is listed as a “Coll Sr” on MLB’s draft tracker, but he is finishing up his third year of college. He came into school old, so he’s already turned 22. I’m calling him a Coll Jr. irrespective of what MLBpipeline says. He was Butler’s leading hitter this year, slashing .372/.443/.702 with power. He’s a 6’3″ classical big guy corner OF (he played a lot of RF for Butler) and the BA scouting profile shows promise. In a repeating trend, his scouting report talks about his elite Exit Velocity (EV), putting him at 90% percentile for D1. This is not the first time we’ve seen EV listed prominently for a player the team has drafted, and I have to believe this is a specific marker our new-fangled scouting department is focusing on.

11th rounders are always an interesting set of players, often with the talent level to have been more like a 5th/6th rounder and often commanding a premium over the $150k figure, so Morokneck will be one to keep an eye on. We’ve mostly tried out College Arms who slipped out of the top 10 with our 11th rounders as of late, often throwing an extra $100k at them, and have had varying success.

• 12th Round: #351 overall: Ben Moore, Coll JR LHP from Old Dominion

Ranks by major shops: MLB=237, BA=243

A local kid! He’s from ODU in Norfolk by way of Linganore HS in Frederick, MD. Ben Moore began the 2025 season as the #64 ranked prospect by BA … but by season’s end he had fallen out of the top 10 rounds. He went from the bullpen for ODU his first two years into the rotation this year and struggled: 6.64 ERA, 1.68 whip. He was just generally wild: 32 walks and 12 HBPs in 63 innings, and despite having a fastball up to 97 he averaged less than a K/inning. So, that’s not a great 2025, but clearly he had some near 2nd round potential before the season. The team has to be betting on this prior reputation, similarly to the way the Angels were betting on Tyler Bremner’s pre-2025 season promise by picking him 2nd overall. Is he signable? Absolutely; he went to the MLB combine, and you don’t go to the combine if you’re not looking to get drafted and start playing pro. I can’t see any reason he wouldn’t go for the $150k slot.

• 13th round: #381 overall: Tucker Biven, Coll Jr. RHP from Louisville

Ranks: BA=347

Biven served as a swing-man for top-10 ranked Louisville team this year, getting both starts and saves throughout the year. He didn’t have the greatest stats this year and certainly took a step back from his 2024 season, where he had better numbers. 2025 stats; 23 appearances, 5 starts, 43ip, 3.71 ERA, 1.58 whip. Is he signable? He still has eligibility and did not attend the combine. But, if he’s projecting to the Louisville bullpen again in 2026, what does he have left to prove? He could end up in a senior sign 7th round situation offered $10k, versus gambling on a guaranteed $150k payday today. I think he signs.

• 14th round: #411 overall: Nick Hollifield, Coll Jr. C from UAB

Seems like a middle of the road college catcher; not great hitting stats, got a nod for a mid-season Buster Posey nomination award (goes to the best college catcher). Slashed .266/.376/.415 this year. Was a rock behind the plate for UAB, making 50+ starts this year. Will he sign? This season was his best offensively, so if he wants to play professionally now’s the time. I think he signs.

• 15th round: #441 overall: Jacob Walsh, Coll Sr 1B from Oregon

Senior 1B, decent stats this year, 1,000 OPS with 19 homers and some SB. Attended the MLB combine, which clearly did him some favors as we pick him up. Was the Oregon career HR record holder after his JUNIOR year, only extended it in his Sr. season. Lefty, big guy, but also was named to some all-conference Defensive teams. Seems like a decent prospect.

• 16th Round: #471 overall: Levi Huesman, Coll Jr LHP from Vanderbilt

Huseman is at Vanderbilt by way of Richmond baseball powerhouse Hanover HS. He was initially at Coastal Carolina but xferred in for his sophomore season. This year, he threw just 16 innings this year: 20/4 K/BB in those ip with solid 2.81 ERA. He was a 17th rounder out of HS but went to college, now he’s a 16th rounder after his Junior year. He did not go to the MLB combine. He’s been barely used out of Vandy’s pen for two years now, and I wonder if he wants to stick around for another year of pitching an inning a week. Seems like he’d be signable.

• 17th round: #501 overall: Bryce Molinaro, Coll Jr 3B from Penn State

Penn State is not exactly a baseball powerhouse. And Molinaro wasn’t exactly an offensive superstar there this year, slashing .267/.373/.502 for the season. He’s a PA kid who initially went to St. Johns and who then redshirted and transferred, so technically he’s a RS Sophomore. He was a lot better last year, slashing .329/.409/.560 as a RS freshman. If he signed, he’d be signing low honestly. He did not attend the MLB combine. I think the combination of his downturn in performance, his now attending Penn State as a PA resident (PA guys are completely enamored of Penn State), and the fact that he still has two years of eligibility means he’s going to stay in school and won’t sign.

• 18th round: #531 overall: Owen Puk, Coll Sr RHP from Florida International

Puk posted a 4.91 ERA/1.39 whip with decent K/9 but some control issues (23 walks in 40 ip plus 11 WPs) as a sat/sun “starter” for FIU this year. I put “starter” in quotes because he usually only went 3-4 innings, often less, resulting in just 40IP cross 15 appearances. He’s technically a RS junior, having missed all of 2023 getting Tommy John. If you recognize the unique last name you should: he’s the brother of AJ Puk, who was a 6th overall pick a decade ago by Oakland and who is in the majors now. So, Owen isn’t nearly the prospect AJ was, but isn’t a bad bet based on pedigree for an 18th rounder. He’s done four years in school and should sign.

• 19th Round: #561: Mason Pike Prep HS RHP/SS from Puyallup HS (WA)

Ranks: MLB=135, BA=68.

So, we get our one prep backup plan pick here in the 19th round. The Nats have generally used their 19th or 20th picks to grab a big-name prep kid who’s slipped out of signing range as insurance in case one of their negotiations goes south with the kids they grabbed in the 1st-5th rounds. I guarantee you Pike would sign for the overage we’d planned on spending there. He’s a 2-way Oregon State commit who BA had ranked #31 at season’s beginning, so we’re talking a 1st-2nd round talent. He’s a switch hitter with a bunch of 60 tool grades, can hit 97 on the mound but otherwise is mostly being evaluated as a SS. He’ll play both ways if/when he gets to college.

• 20th round: #591 overall: Juan Cruz, 1B Coll Jr from Alabama State University

BA ranked 474

Our 20th rounder is intriguing: Juan Cruz, huge 1B from Alabama State (6’5″ 240) who attended the MLB combine as a junior. His numbers this year are impressive: .420/.481/.690 for a gaudy 1.171 OPS figure. He’s technically a Redshirt sophomore, but he went to the MLB combine this year, which I’m reading like others as his intent to get drafted and sign. He crushed the ball last year to earn all-conference Freshman of the year, and was SWAC player of the year in 2025. I see one caveat here: he’s in the transfer portal and has committed to move to Georgia. Does he want to roll the dice with a season in the SEC, or to turn pro having dominated his league? We’ll see.

---

So, a decent balance of arms and position players from 11-20, a couple of guys with solid college stats that might turn out solid. 9 of the 10 picks here were college guys with the one insurance prep kid as an exception.

I’ve updated the Draft Tracker’s 2025 draft with this data, and will start to be on the lookout for signings and NDFAs. I’ll also populate the social media links of these players, since that’s where they often tip their hat to signings or inclinations of returning to school.