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Nats All-Star review: 2017 and years past

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Mlb-asg-2017

 

Here’s my annual Nationals All Star selection post.

Fun Trivia:

  • All-time leader in Nats all-star appearances: Harper with 5 appearances.  Technically Scherzer also has been named 5 times but some pre-dated his time here.
  • All-time leader in All-Star Game starts: Also Harper, getting his 4th start.
  • Total number of Starters in the history of the Franchise: Now is Eight; Harper 4-times, and one each for Soriano, Murphy, Zimmerman and Scherzer
  • Most all-star players named in a single year: 5 in both 2016 and now 2017.
  • Least all-star game players named in a single year: 1 in multiple years during the “dark years” of 2006 through 2011.

(* == All-Star game starter)

2017

  • Nationals All-Star representatives: Bryce Harper*, Daniel Murphy*, Ryan Zimmerman*, Max Scherzer*, Stephen Strasburg
  • Snubs: Anthony Rendon, Gio Gonzalez
  • Narrative: For the second  year in a row, the Nats are well and properly represented in the All Star Game.  We have three starters named in the field, including Zimmerman who beats out a slew of 1B sluggers in the NL to not only make the team but get his first start.  Its also likely i’ll be editing this post and adding in Scherzer as an additional starter; he is the obvious choice to start the game for the NL given his first half production (7/10/17 update: yes indeed we did).  Rendon is having a very quiet solid season and is in the “last 5” popular vote, but he seems unlikely to win given that last year’s MVP Kris Bryant is also in the voting (Update: neither guy got in).  Gonzalez misses out despite having a better first half than Strasburg by nearly any statistic; he’s having a career year but seems unlikely to get rewarded with his 3rd ASG appearance.  There’s no other real snub from our 2017 team; certainly there’s nobody in the bullpen meriting a spot, and Trea Turner‘s torrid 2016 2nd half did not translate into the 2017 season (not to mention, he’s had two separate D/L trips).  Once again i’m slightly perturbed that Harper continues to refuse to participate in the HR derby; why the reticence?  Its a fun event that is quickly becoming better than the actual game itself and practically every other slugger is participating.  Is he afraid to lose?  On a larger scale, i’m really happy to see (finally) that deserving rookies are named: Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger are both named and are both on the inside track for ROY awards; too many times in the past we see deserving rookies unnamed.  On July 10th, the fourth Nat starter was named: Scherzer got the starting pitcher nod, a first for the Nats.  August Update: Rendon’s omission is looking even more ridiculous; he’s top 5 in the league in bWAR.

2016

  • Nationals All-Star representatives: Bryce Harper*, Stephen Strasburg, Daniel Murphy, Wilson Ramos, Max Scherzer (named as replacement for Strasburg on 7/8/16),
  • Possible Snubs: Danny EspinosaTanner Roark
  • Narrative: The four obvious candidates from the Nats this year were all initially correctly selected, though voting shenanigans out of Chicago elected Ben Zobrist over Daniel Murphy by a scant 500 votes.   I thought perhaps Strasburg would have a chance to start the game, given his 12-0 record, but it seems the team pre-empted any such thought when Scherzer’s naming occurred.  For the first time writing this post, I can’t really name any “snubs” and the team has (finally?) earned the proper respect it deserves in terms of naming its players properly.  Espinosa had a week for the ages just prior to the end of voting but really stood little chance of selection in the grand scheme of things.  He’s not really a “snub” but is worthy of mention based on his resurgent year.  At the break, Espinosa ranked 3rd in NL fWAR but 7th or 8th in bWAR thanks to differing defensive value metrics, so maybe/maybe not on him being a “snub.”  As pointed out in the comments, even I missed the sneaky good season Roark is having; he’s 12th in the NL in bWAR at the break and 9th in fWAR but was left off in favor of any number of starters that stand below him in value rankings.  Unfortunately for fans (and for Harper’s “Make Baseball Fun again” campaign, he opted to skip the Home Run Derby again.  I guess its kind of like the NBA superstars skipping the dunk contest; the Union should really do a better job of helping out in this regard.  The new format is fantastic and makes the event watchable again; is it ego keeping him from getting beat by someone like Giancarlo Stanton?

2015

  • Nationals All-Star representatives: Bryce Harper*, Max Scherzer
  • Possible Snubs: Yunel Escobar, Drew Storen
  • Narrative: Harper not only made it in as a starter for the 2nd time, he led the NL in votes, setting a MLB record for total votes received.  This is no surprise; Harper’s easily in the MVP lead for the NL thanks to his amazing first half (his split at the half-way point of the season: .347/.474/.722 with 25 homers and an astounding 225 OPS+).  I guess he won’t be earning the “Most overrated player” award next year.  That Harper is electing to skip the Home run derby in a disappointment; his father is nursing an arm injury can cannot throw to him in the event.  In a weird year for the Nats, the only other regular worth mentioning is newly acquired Escobar, who is hitting above .300 and filling in ably at multiple positions that, prior to this year, he had never played.  Storen is having another excellent regular season … but at a time when mandatory members from each team often leads to other closers being selected (there are 5 NL closers and 7 AL relievers), the odds of him making the All-Star team were always going to be slim.  Scherzer deservedly makes the team and probably would have been the NL starter; he’s got sub 2.00 ERA and FIP and leads all NL pitchers in WAR at the mid-way point of the season.  But his turn came up in the final game of the first half, making him ineligible for the game and forcing his replacement on the roster.

As a side note, the 2015 All-Star game will go down as the “Ballot-Gate” game thanks to MLB’s short-sighted plan to allow 30+ online ballots per email address.  This led to severe “ballot stuffing” by the Kansas City Royals fans, led to MLB  having to eliminate 60 million+ fraudulent ballots, but still led to several Royals being elected starters over more deserving candidates.

2014

  • Nationals All-Star representative: Jordan Zimmermann (Update post-publishing: Zimmermann strained a bicep, and had to withdraw from the ASG.  For a bit it looked like the Nats wouldn’t even have a representative, until Tyler Clippard was named on 7/13/14).
  • Possible Snubs: Adam LaRoche, Anthony Rendon, Rafael Soriano, Drew Storen
  • Narrative: Zimmermann’s been the best SP on the best pitching staff in the majors this year, and thus earns his spot.  I find it somewhat odd that a first place team (or near to it) gets just one representative on the team (as discussed above).  Rendon tried to make the team via the “last man in” voting, but historically Nationals have not fared well in this competition (especially when better known players from large markets are in the competition, aka Anthony Rizzo from the Chicago Cubs), and indeed Rendon finished 4th in the last-man voting.  LaRoche is having a very good season, almost single handedly carrying the Nats offense while major parts were out injured, but he’s never going to beat out the slew of great NL first basemen (Joey Votto couldn’t even get into this game).  Soriano has quietly put together one of the best seasons of any closer in the game; at the time of this writing he has a 1.03 ERA and a .829 whip; those are Dennis Eckersley numbers.  But, the farce that is the all-star game selection criteria (having to select one player from each team) means that teams need a representative, and deserving guys like Soriano get squeezed.  Then, Soriano indignantly said he wouldn’t even go if named as a replacement … likely leading to Clippard’s replacement selection.  The same goes for non-closer Storen, who sports a sub 2.00 ERA on the year.  Advanced stats columnists (Keith Law) also think that Stephen Strasburg is a snub but I’m not entirely sure: he may lead the NL in K’s right now and have far better advanced numbers than “traditional,” but its hard to make an argument that a guy with a 7-6 record and a 3.50+ ERA is all-star worthy.

2013

  • Nationals All-Star representatives: Bryce Harper*, Jordan Zimmermann
  • Snubs: Stephen Strasburg, Ian Desmond
  • Narrative: Harper comes in 3rd in the NL outfielder voting, ahead of some big-time names, to become only the second Nationals position player elected as an All-Star starter.  He was 4th in the final pre-selection vote, so a big last minute push got him the starter spot.   Harper also becomes the first National to participate in the Home Run Derby.   Zimmermann was 12-3 heading into the game and was on mid-season Cy Young short lists in July in a breakout season.  Strasburg’s advanced stats are all better than Zimmermann’s, but his W/L record (4-6 as the ASG) means he’s not an all-star.  It also probably doesn’t help that he missed a few weeks.  Desmond loses out to Troy TulowitzkiEverth Cabrera and Jean Segura.  Tulowitzki was having a very solid year and was a deserving elected starter, while Cabrera and Segura are both having breakout seasons.  Desmond was on the “Final vote” roster, but my vote (and most others’ I’m guessing) would be for Yasiel Puig there ([Editor Update: Desmond and Puig lost out to Freddie Freeman: I still wished that Puig finds a way onto the roster but ultimately he did not and I believe the ASG was diminished because of it).   Gio GonzalezRyan Zimmerman, and Rafael Soriano are all having solid but unspectacular years and miss out behind those having great seasons.

2012

  • Nationals All-Star representatives: Stephen StrasburgGio GonzalezIan Desmond, Bryce Harper
  • Possible Snubs: Adam LaRocheCraig Stammen
  • Narrative: The two SPs Strasburg and Gonzalez were the obvious candidates, and my personal prediction was that they’d be the only two candidates selected.  Gonzalez’ first half was a prelude to his 21-win, 3rd place Cy Young season.  The inclusion of Desmond is a surprise, but also a testament to how far he’s come as a player in 2012.  Harper was a last-minute injury replacement, but had earned his spot by virtue of his fast start as one of the youngest players in the league.  Of the “snubs,” LaRoche has had a fantastic come back season in 2012 but fared little shot against better, more well-known NL first basemen.  Stammen was our best bullpen arm, but like LaRoche fared little chance of getting selected during a year when the Nats had two deserving pitchers selected.

2011

  • Nationals All-Star representatives: Tyler Clippard
  • Possible Snubs: Danny EspinosaMichael MorseDrew StorenJordan Zimmermann
  • Narrative: While Clippard was (arguably) the Nats best and most important reliever, I think Zimmermann was a more rightful choice.  He was 10th in the league in ERA at the time of the selections and has put in a series of dominant performances.  Meanwhile Espinosa was on pace for a 28-homer season and almost a certain Rookie-of-the-Year award (though a precipitous fall-off in the 2nd half cost him any realistic shot at the ROY), and perhaps both players are just too young to be known around the league.  Lastly Morse is certainly known and he merited a spot in the “last man in” vote sponsored by MLB (though he fared little chance against popular players in this last-man-in voting).

2010

  • Nationals All-Star representatives: Matt Capps
  • Possible Snubs: Adam DunnJosh WillinghamRyan Zimmerman, Stephen Strasburg
  • Narrative: Capps was clearly deserving, having a breakout season as a closer after his off-season non-tender from the Pirates.  The 3-4-5 hitters Zimmerman-Dunn-Willingham all had dominant offensive seasons as the team improved markedly from its 103-loss season.  But perhaps the surprise non-inclusion was Strasburg, who despite only having a few starts as of the all-star break was already the talk of baseball.  I think MLB missed a great PR opportunity to name him to the team to give him the exposure that the rest of the national media expected.  But in the end, Capps was a deserving candidate and I can’t argue that our hitters did anything special enough to merit inclusion.

2009

  • Nationals All-Star representatives: Ryan Zimmerman
  • Possible Snubs: Adam Dunn
  • Narrative: The addition of Dunn and Willingham to the lineup gave Zimmerman the protection he never had, and he produced with his career-best season.  His first and deserved all-star appearance en-route to a 33 homer season.  Dunn continued his monster homer totals with little all-star recognition.

2008

  • Nationals All-Star representatives: Cristian Guzman
  • Possible Snubs: Jon Rauch
  • Narrative: The first of two “hitting rock-bottom” seasons for the team; no one really merited selection.  Zimmerman was coming off of hamate-bone surgery in November 2007 and the team was more or less awful across the board.  Rauch performed ably after Cordero went down with season-ending (and basically career-ending) shoulder surgery.   Guzman’s selection a great example of why one-per-team rules don’t make any sense.  Guzman ended up playing far longer than he deserved in the game itself by virtue of the 15-inning affair.

2007

  • Nationals All-Star representatives: Dmitri Young
  • Possible Snubs: Ryan Zimmerman, Shawn Hill (though I wouldn’t argue for either)
  • Narrative: Young gets a deserved all-star appearance en route to comeback player of the year.  Zimmerman played a full season but didn’t dominate.  Our 2007 staff gave starts to 13 different players, most of whom were out of the league within the next year or two.  Not a good team.

2006

  • Nationals All-Star representatives: Alfonso Soriano*
  • Possible Snubs: Nick JohnsonRyan Zimmerman, Chad Cordero
  • Narrative: Soriano made the team as an elected starter, the first time the Nats have had such an honor.  Our pitching staff took massive steps backwards and no starter came even close to meriting a spot.  Cordero was good but not lights out as he had been in 2005.  Soriano’s 40-40 season is a poster child for “contract year” production and he has failed to come close to such production since.  The team was poor and getting worse.  Johnson had a career year but got overshadowed by bigger, better first basemen in the league (a recurring theme for our first basemen over the years).

2005

  • Nationals All-Star representatives: Livan HernandezChad Cordero
  • Possible Snubs: Nick JohnsonJohn Patterson.
  • Narrative: The Nats went into the All Star break surprisingly in first place, having run to a 50-31 record by the halfway point.  Should a first place team have gotten more than just two representatives?  Perhaps.  But the team was filled with non-stars and played far over its head to go 50-31 (as evidenced by the reverse 31-50 record the rest of the way).

We miss you: Former Nats from the 2015 team and where they are now

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Did we dodge a bullet by allowing Zimmermann to leave? Photo via The Boston Globe.

Did we dodge a bullet by allowing Zimmermann to leave? Photo via The Boston Globe.

Next in a series moving backwards.  Here was the “We Miss You” for the 2016 team.

Lets go back a year and look at those players gone from the 2015 team.  I’m building these partly from the Nats to Oblivion Posts and partly from my own notes using a combination of players gone via FA, trades, DFAs, to include major league players and significant minor league players.   If a player is still in the org but was just DFA’d off the 40-man, I’ll mostly skip them.  I may miss someone; pipe up in the comments if I have a glaring miss.

I’ll organize this by roughly by the level of the player; major league players who left via FA or trade, then DFA’d/declined players, then minor leaguers of note who departed.

  • Jordan Zimmermann; signed 5/$110M with Detroit and left us with a comp pick, used to take Dane Dunning.  I think its safe to say that Zimmermann’s tenure in Detroit thus far has been disappointing: he had a 4.87 ERA in 2016 and missed half the season, and he’s been even worse this year.  Detroit has to behaving some buyer’s remorse right now.  And he’s signed for 3 more years past this one, at big money.
  • Dan Uggla: The Nats were probably his last stand chance in the majors; hit just .183 and was given just 17 ABs the last two months of the 2015 season.  Never signed for 2016 and seems to be retired.
  • Doug Fister: signed 1/$7M with Houston, to whom he gave 32 starts and 180 innings of mediocrity (4.64 ERA) in 2016.  Apparently still believes he’s worthy of a 25-man spot and refused all offers this past off-season that were not MLB deals.  Remains unsigned as of this writing; he may have to swallow his pride if he wants to keep playing and take a MLFA deal.
  • Ian Desmond signed 1/$11M with Texas after declining Washington’s qualifying offer.  Desmond became kind of the poster child for all the things wrong with the Qualifying Offer season; after turning down a 5yr/$89.5M deal the previous season, he turned down a guaranteed $15.8M offer to eventually sign for $11M.  To add insult to injury, Desmond had to move off of SS for Texas, which was what propped up his value in the first place.  He had an up-and-down season with Texas, starting the year incredibly hot and making the All Star team, but slumping towards the end.  He got saddled with a second QO, which he again signed, but his 2016 season was enough for Colorado to give him perhaps the most inexplicable contract of last off-season, a 5yr/$70M deal … to play first base.  A position he’d never played before.  And Colorado gave up literally the highest unprotected draft pick to do so (the 11th pick in the upcoming 2017 draft).  Desmond suffered a hand injury this spring, and as a result Colorado has installed slugger Mark Reynolds at 1B; he’s done so well that the team is wondering just what they’ll do with Desmond when he returns in early May.  On the bright side for Desmond; at least he finally got paid.  And i’m sure that 100% of Nats fans would take what the team has done at SS since over having a $90M contract on their hands.
  • Denard Span signed 3/$31M with San Francisco, capping a frustrating year for Span and the team.  He only played 61 games for the 2015 team, forcing the Nats to start Michael Taylor and his 30% K rate in CF for a good chunk of the season.  Span’s first season in SF was similar to his first in DC; he struggled offensively.  He’s been even worse in 2017, and is currently on the D/L (in an interesting twist of fate; his replacement on the SF active roster?  None other than Michael Morse).
  • Nate McLouth; The team couldn’t wait to decline his 2016 option and pay his 750k buyout for 2016 after his disastrous stint with Washington.  His contract was ill-advised from the start; did we really need to pay good money to have a “veteran 4th outfielder?”  McLouth missed the entirety of 2015, has yet to sign since, and may have played his way out of baseball.
  • Matt Thornton signed a MLFA deal with San Diego for 2016, got called up after a couple of months in AAA, but struggled.  He posted a 5.82 ERA over the next couple of months and was released in August.  He has not appeared since and now at age 40 is likely done.
  • Casey Janssen was so poor for the Nats that they bought his 2016 out for a cool $1.5M buyout for 2016); he also signed a MLFA deal with San Diego for 2016.  Ah San Diego; the place where pitchers go to resurrect their careers.  He was released in late Spring Training 2016, got picked up with Boston in June of 2016, pitched a bit for their Short-A and AAA teams then was released in early August 2016.  Did not pick up with a team for 2017 and at age 35 with little velocity on his fastball, he may be retired.
  • Reed Johnson got picked back up on a MLFA deal by Washington for 2016 season, but did not make the team out of spring and was released on 4/2/16.  He did not pick up with anyone for 2016 and at age 39 may be retired.
  • Taylor Jordan: After brief stints with the team in 2015, started 2016 in AAA but got hurt in June of 2016, he had a second TJ surgery … and then was released by the club on 6/28/16 to correspond to the Giolito contract addition.  Man, that seems kind of cold to release a guy just after surgery, but his odds of making it back to the majors just took a significant hit.  As of 2017 has not re-signed anywhere and seems a long-shot to do so, with little major league track record and two arm injuries.  Likely out of baseball at this point.
  • David Carpenter: shoulder injury, DFA’d, elected free agency and quickly signed a ML deal with Atlanta for 2016.  However he was cut after just a handful of spring training games; maybe his injury is worse than we thought.  He then bounced from Tampa to the Angels system for 2016, and then signed back with Tampa as a MLFA/NRI for 2017, but was cut on 4/4/17.
  • Emmanuel Burriss: signed MLFA with Philly and lead-off against the Nats in their first visit to Philadelphia in the new season.  He was DFA’d and purchased a couple times by Philly last year, but upon his outright after the season he elected FA and signed a MLFA to return to the Nats for 2017.  He looked like nice utility infielder insurance until he got suspended for a “drug of abuse” in the spring (his second such offense).  He currently sits on Syracuse’s restricted list.  I have to say; his status as the sole DC-bred baseball player in the pros (as far as I can tell) and his playing for the Washington franchise seems to put him in a great post-career outreach position … but now with two drug suspensions on his resume, I wonder if he’s scuttled any such possibility of representing the team in the community.
  • Craig Stammen: fan favorite had an ill-timed injury late in the 2015 season and was non-tendered instead of guaranteeing him a contract for 2016.  He signed a MLFA with Cleveland for 2016 but never made it out of AAA.  I had him as a leading “oblivion candidate” until he signed another MLFA deal for 2017 and made the San Diego opening day roster.  His april has not been good though, sporting an ERA in the mid 8s as of May 1st.  He may be in danger of a DFA, which might spell the end of his MLB career given how the last couple of seasons have gone.  He gave the Nats 3 solid years as a bullpen workhorse that may have led to his eventual wearing out.
  • Tyler Moore never could match the magic of his debut season in 2012, but a series of injuries kept him hanging around in 2014 and 2015 when he may otherwise have been released.  His luck ran out though for the 2016 team, when he got beat out for the RH bench bat by Chris Heisey and he got DFA’d at the end of spring training.  We negotiated a trade of similar discarded assets with Atlanta, trading Moore for Nate Freiman.  Freiman didn’t last three weeks with the AAA team before being released (a measure of just how little we got in return for trade), while Moore got injured early and missed most of the year for AAA Gwinnett.  He signed a MLFA for 2017 with the Marlins and team out of spring training.  He even got a crucial hit against the Nats early in 2017 season, but was soon DFA’d again.  He passed through waivers and was outrighted to New Orleans (where, as noted in the previous post, he joins a litany of former Nats).
  • Xavier Cedeno was the first 25-man DFA of the 2015 season.  He was used 4 times in 5 nights in early April, gave up a couple of runs and then got designated with just 3 IP.  It was an odd move at the time; why was he getting appearance after appearance if the team was going to DFA him?  Why did the team have so little patience with him?  After his DFA, he got purchased by the Dodgers, who then sold him to the Rays 5 days later … and he had 61 appearances with a 2.09 ERA for Tampa Bay the rest of 2015.  He was a solid bullpen arm for them all of 2016 and remains on their team now.  Do you think maybe the team gave up on him too soon?
  • Taylor Hill: Hill was DFA’d to make room for January 2016 signings and was outrighted to AAA, where he pitched the entire 2016 season.  Hill finished out the year for AAA Syracuse with a 4.60 ERA in 27 starts.  He is still with the AAA team for 2017 but has been passed on the depth chart by several guys (Cole, Voth, Fedde) and faces long odds of a return to the majors with this organization.  Additionally, Hill has started the 2017 AAA season by getting shelled; an 8.14 ERA for April.  He may be in serious jeopardy of getting released.
  • Aaron Barrett: Tommy John in 2015, then in June of 2016, he had a major set-back in his TJ recovery, fracturing his elbow.  He has re-signed with the Nats for 2017 and starts the  year on the AAA D/L.  I was happy to see the Nats give Barrett this gesture of signing him so that he can rehab with the team, and I hope it pays off with an eventual return to the fold.
  • Matt Purke got his last shot at salvaging a career with the Nats, who signed him for big-time money ($2.75M as a 3rd rounder in 2011, the last free for all non-capped bonus draft).  He failed to impress again, and the team let him go to free agency.  He signed a MLFA deal with the Chicago White Sox, who assigned him to AAA … and then he earned a call-up by mid May 2016.  The nats were looking rather foolish for cutting bait on a guy who made the Chicago MLB team after just a few weeks.  But his time in South-Side was short lived; he was optioned back to the minors by the end of June, never made it back, was outrighted over the off-season and started 2017 off the 40-man pitching for AAA Charlotte.  He is still wild (8 walks in 11 2017 innings) but he’s only 26 so there may still be time.  But from a Nats transaction perspective, i’m not sure what else they could have done.
  • Yunel Escobar: after a productive season with the Nats, where Escobar played multiple positions and covered for infield injuries galore, he was traded to Los Angeles Angels for Trevor Gott and Michael Brady in the off-season.  At the time of the trade (mid December 2015) Escobar was considered surplus to requirements, in that the team had its infield already spoken for in Anthony RendonDanny Espinosa, and Trea Turner.  Two weeks later the team signed Danny Murphy to play 2B, thus relegating Turner back to AAA to save his service clock.  Escobar was traded to the team with perhaps the worst farm system in the majors; Gott has yet to throw a pitch for the MLB team and Brady is already gone via MLFA, so the return for Escobar is rather paltry.  That being said, I think the league knew we were shopping him, he had just had a career year with a BA 30 points above his career average, and may have been ceiling limited with the expectation of regression.  Since the trade, Escobar has played a solid 3B for the Angels and kept his BA above .300, and has been joined in their infield by fellow Nats reject Espinosa.
  • Drew Storen traded with cash to Toronto for Ben Revere, ptbnl.  I think we’ve litigated the Storen case to death; he was flipped more or less since the acquisition of Jonathan Papelbon and Storen’s undeserved demotion seemed to break him; it was as clear of a case of someone needing “a change of scenery” as I’ve seen with one of our players.  We got a player in Revere that filled a point of need (CF) and one that looked on paper like a good deal at the time.  I think its fair to say now that this trade didn’t work out for either team: Storen put up an ERA north of 6.00 for Toronto, got flipped again to Seattle, and at current sits as the 8th inning guy for one of the worst teams in baseball (Cincinnati).  Meanwhile Revere barely hit the Mendoza line for the Nats, forcing the team to put its SS of the future into CF as a make-shift replacement, and got non-tendered at season’s end.  A crummy end to Storen’s career here, where he remains in 2nd place all time (behind Chad Cordero) in career franchise saves.
  • Kila Ka’aihue,  Ian Stewart, Mike Carp: part of the great 2016 RH bat spring training cattle call; didn’t make the team and were eventually released.
  • Tony Renda traded to Yankees for David Carpenter mid-season in an attempt to buttress the bullpen.  Didn’t work.  Renda may have been my farcical “future hall of famer” before Max Schrock, in that they’re both basically undersized middle infielders that posted good minor league numbers but seem ceiling limited.  Renda got traded to Cincinnati ahead of the 2016 season, had a cup of coffee up there, but got outrighted after the 2016 season and remains on the AAA Louisville roster.
  • Mitch Lively and Evan Meek: both AAA hurlers released from their contracts so they could sign in Japan and Korea respectively.  Lively struggled in Japan and has been pitching in the Mexican league ever since, while Meek also struggled in the KBO and has been playing indy ball ever since.
  • Jose Valverde opted out of his MLFA contract and was released in July; never picked back up for 2015, or 2016.  Kept pitching in winter ball and is now in the Mexican league.
  • Eric Fornataro the off-season waiver claim never made it out of AAA, posting a mid 5 ERA and got released in July.   He picked back up with a MLFA for 2016 with Baltimore, but struggled in AA and was released in May of 2016.  He has not signed since and may be done.
  • Nick Pivetta: traded to Philadelphia for Papelbon.  We know the Papelbon story, and now we know the Pivetta story; he debuted in Philly’s rotation last weekend in LA after a solid year starting in AA and AAA in 2016 and a hot start in Lehigh Valley for 2017.  He may be in a position to haunt the Nats for 6 seasons …. all for a year and a half of tumult out of Papelbon.
  • Dan Butler was a Catcher we received from Boston for Danny Rosenbaum in Jan of 2015; he was a 40-man spot holder for most of the season but served mostly as catcher depth before being DFA’d in July to make room for Papelbon.  He was outrighted to AAA, elected FA after the season and went right back to Boston for 2016.  He remains as their AAA backup catcher.

Did I miss anyone?


Player I most miss from this list: From a Nats “legacy” perspective it was tough to wave good bye to Ian Desmond, who gave this franchise 11 years of his life.  Same with Zimmermann; he was part of the core that turned this team from a laughing stock to divisional winner.

Player Loss I most regret using unfair “hindsight is 20/20” vision: Pivetta.  Even if he’s “only” a 4th starter, he represents all that was wrong with the Papelbon decision.

Player Loss that is the most “We dodged a bullet” situation: Zimmermann’s contract; we thought he’d get overpaid, but a year and a half in his contract looks awful for an aging team that’s moving the wrong direction and has little chance of unseating Cleveland in their own division.

Qualifying Offer Wrap-up for 2017

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Cespedes was the only major QO winner this off-season.  Photo via Business Insider

Cespedes was the only major QO winner this off-season. Photo via Business Insider

While we bide our time for the opening of Spring Training, I thought I’d wrap up some off-season posts in draft mode…

Every year since its inception i’ve done a “Qualifying Offer” wrap-up post (henceforth referred to as QO), as a way to provide some analysis of this salary-limiting vehicle that was such a major point of negotiations in the latest CBA.  It has been markedly changed for the coming years, changed in a way that favors the players and penalizes the smaller market teams “less” than the larger market teams.

This off-season just 10 players took the Qualifying Offer, as compared to 20 the year before.  Here’s a summary table of those players:

YearPlayerOld TeamPrevious Contract AAVNew TeamNew contract AAV
2016Yoenis CespedesNew York Mets27.5MNew York Mets$27.5M
2016Dexter FowlerChicago Cubs13MSt. Louis$16.4M
2016Justin TurnerLos Angeles Dodgers5.1MLos Angeles Dodgers$16M
2016Edwin EncarnacioToronto9.75MCleveland$20M
2016Neil WalkerNew York Mets10.55MNew York Mets$17.2M
2016Kenley JansenLos Angeles Dodgers10.65Los Angeles Dodgers$16M
2016Ian DesmondTexas8mColorado$14M
2016Jeremy HellicksonPhiladelphia7mPhiladelphia$17.2M
2016Jose BautistaToronto13.16MToronto$18M
2016Mark TrumboBaltimore9.15MBaltimore$12.5M

Here’s a link to my full QO worksheet, with more fields, more contract details and a history of all QO players dating to 2012.

High-level Summary of the QOs:

  • 5 of the 10 players ended up re-signing with their old team.
  • 2 of the 10 players took the QO that was offered and will play on a one-year, $17.2M deal in 2017.
  • Just 3 of the 10 signed with other teams and cost those teams a draft pick.

Compare those results to 2015’s crop of 20 QO offered players:

  • 6 of the 20 re-signed
  • 3 of the 20 took the QO; the first three to do so in the history of the system
  • 11 of the 20 cost teams draft picks.

Here’s some other observations of this past year’s crop of players:

  • 5 of the 10 ended up taking a lesser AAV on their next contract than the $17.2M one-year deal on the table when they were offered the QO.
  • However, only 2 of the 10 I’d say were “screwed” by the QO: Jose Bautista and Mark Trumbo.  Bautista kind of mis-read the FA landscape and declined multi year deals before scurrying back to Toronto on a one-year $18M deal that probably was a “saving face” contract from Toronto to one of its best stars.  Trumbo was the last man standing and took nearly $5M less in AAV to sign a 3 year extension; the modern game just does not rate aging sluggers with 30% whiff rates who are defensively limited.
  • Ian Desmond, as has been frequently reported, took the most inexplicable contract of the past few years, but despite taking more than $3M/year less in AAV than the QO you cannot say that his new contract is anything but a win for him and his family.  $70M guaranteed drastically shortchanges what he allegedly turned down from the Nats (and, boy did the Nats dodge a bullet by not committing to Desmond for 7 years).
  • I kinda couldn’t believe that Philly extended the QO to Jeremy Hellickson.  Maybe they’ll flip him at the deadline for prospects.
  • The teams who offered QOs to players this year reads like a list of the major market teams: Chicago, New York, Los Angeles, Toronto, Texas, Philadelphia and Baltimore.  Among those teams only Baltimore is not immediately considered a major market team … but they should be (they were the #1 payroll team in the majors in the 1990s; the were the Yankees before the  Yankees became the  Yankees).
  • The 3 teams who forfeited 1st round picks: Colorado, Cleveland and St. Louis.  All three smaller market teams.
  • The 3 teams who gained add’l picks: Chicago Cubs, Toronto and Texas.  All three major market teams.

The last two statements together perfectly encapsulate why this system no longer worked.  I’m glad to see its impact lessened, and I’m sure the players are too.  They gave up way too much in the CBA negotiations to secure it, but that’s a problem for the next CBA.

 

Written by Todd Boss

February 8th, 2017 at 2:48 pm

2017’s Draft order is now finalized; Overall and Nats impact

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Desmond was one of just three draft-pick compensation penalties of the FA signing period this year. Photo Drew Kinback/Natsnq.com

Desmond was one of just three draft-pick compensation penalties of the FA signing period this year. Photo Drew Kinback/Natsnq.com

When Mark Trumbo sulked back to Baltimore to take his massively under-market deal, he became the last Qualifying Offer (QO) -attached player to sign, meaning the 2017 draft order is now finalized.

This year, only three 1st round picks were forfeited due to QO-attached players:

  • Colorado’s 11th overall, forfeited inexplicably to sign Ian Desmond to a 5yr/$70M deal purportedly to play a position (1B) he’s never played before in a market that already had an abundance of 1B-only sluggers.
  • St. Louis’s 19th overall, forfeited to sign the long-rumored Dexter Fowler to man CF for them for the next 5 years.
  • Cleveland’s 27th overall, forfeited to sign slugger Edwin Encarnation and drastically improve upon the team that made it into extra innings in the 7th game of the World Series despite missing two of their three best starters in the playoffs.

This year’s signing period stands in stark comparison to 2016’s, when teams gave up no less than seven first round picks (and 11 overall) to sign players.  A weaker class, a larger number of teams already punting on the new season, plus knowledge that the new CBA lowers the draft-pick penalty may have had teams stay on the sidelines this off-season.

So, all that being said, here’s the new updated draft order for this June’s draft.   Here’s the first round and supplemental picks:

Orig First RoundUpdated First RoundTeamNotes
111. Twins (59-103, .364)
222. Reds (68-94, .420)
333. Padres (68-94, .420)
444. Rays (68-94, .420)
555. Braves (68-93, .422)
666. A's (69-93, .426)
777. D-backs (69-93, .426)
888. Phillies (71-91, .438)
999. Brewers (73-89, .451)
101010. Angels (74-88, .457)
1111. Rockies (75-87, .463)Forfeited to sign Ian Desmond
121112. White Sox (78-84, .481)
131213. Pirates (78-83, .484)
141314. Marlins (79-82, .491)
151415. Royals (81-81, .500)
161516. Astros (84-78, .519)
171617. Yankees (84-78, .519)
181718. Mariners (86-76, .531)
1919. Cardinals (86-76, .531)Forfeited to sign Dexter Fowler
201820. Tigers (86-75, .534)
211921. Giants (87-75, .537)
222022. Mets (87-75, .537)
232123. Orioles (89-73, .549)
242224. Blue Jays (89-73, .549)
252325. Dodgers (91-71, .562)
262426. Red Sox (93-69, .574)
2727. Indians (94-67, .584)Forfeited to sign Edwin Encarnacion
282528. Nationals (95-67, .586)
292629. Rangers (95-67, .586)
302730. Cubs (103-58, .640)
Potential QO Compensation Round
31. Jeremy Hellickson, PhilliesTook QO: draft pick compensation cancelled
32. Yoenis Cespedes, MetsRe-signed with Mets: draft pick compensation cancelled
33. Neil Walker, MetsTook QO: draft pick compensation cancelled
34. Mark Trumbo, OriolesResigned with Orioles, draft pick compensation cancelled
35. Jose Bautista, Blue JaysRe-signed with toronto, draft pick compensation cancelled
2836. Edwin Encarnacion, Blue JaysToronto gets pick
37. Kenley Jansen, DodgersRe-signed with Dodgers, draft pick compensation cancelled
38. Justin Turner, DodgersRe-signed with Dodgers, draft pick compensation cancelled
2939. Ian Desmond, RangersRangers get Pick
3040. Dexter Fowler, CubsCubs get pick
Competitive Balance Round A
31Tampa Bay
32Cincinnati
33Oakland
34Milwaukee
35Minnesota
36Miami

Note: i’ll do a separate post about the QO-attached players and their disposition, an annual tradition, later on.  Just three of the original 10 QO-issued players left their teams this year.  The last 6 picks are the Competitive Balance picks, which are annually a joke; Miami plays in a $2.4B stadium, Oakland resides in the 11th largest market in the country.

Here’s the 2nd round and supplementals:

Second Round    
371. Twins (59-103, .364)
382. Reds (68-94, .420)
393. Padres (68-94, .420)
404. Rays (68-94, .420)
415. Braves (68-93, .422)
42Pittsburgh (2016 compensation)Note: #42 pick == Pittsburgh for not siging #41st pick last year; insert when all is said and done.
436. A's (69-93, .426)
447. D-backs (69-93, .426)
458. Phillies (71-91, .438)
469. Brewers (73-89, .451)
4710. Angels (74-88, .457)
4811. Rockies (75-87, .463)
4912. White Sox (78-84, .481)
5013. Pirates (78-83, .484)
5114. Marlins (79-82, .491)
5215. Royals (81-81, .500)
5316. Astros (84-78, .519)
5417. Yankees (84-78, .519)
5518. Mariners (86-76, .531)
5619. Cardinals (86-76, .531)
5720. Tigers (86-75, .534)
5821. Giants (87-75, .537)
5922. Mets (87-75, .537)
6023. Orioles (89-73, .549)
6124. Blue Jays (89-73, .549)
6225. Dodgers (91-71, .562)
6326. Red Sox (93-69, .574)
6427. Indians (94-67, .584)
6528. Nationals (95-67, .586)
6629. Rangers (95-67, .586)
6730. Cubs (103-58, .640)
Competitive Balance Round B
68Arizona
69San Diego
70Colorado
71Cleveland
72Kansas City
73Pittsburgh
74Baltimore
75St. Louis

Only one change in the 2nd round this year; Pittsburgh gets the 42nd pick for failing to sign its 41st overall pick last year (LHP Nick Lodolo, who is now pitching for TCU and makes TCU a very strong team for one who just made the CWS).

Lastly, here’s round three and onwards: just add 30 to each of the draft slots to get the rest of the overall picks:

3rd Round  
761. Twins (59-103, .364)
772. Reds (68-94, .420)
783. Padres (68-94, .420)
794. Rays (68-94, .420)
805. Braves (68-93, .422)
816. A's (69-93, .426)
827. D-backs (69-93, .426)
838. Phillies (71-91, .438)
849. Brewers (73-89, .451)
8510. Angels (74-88, .457)
8611. Rockies (75-87, .463)
8712. White Sox (78-84, .481)
8813. Pirates (78-83, .484)
8914. Marlins (79-82, .491)
9015. Royals (81-81, .500)
9116. Astros (84-78, .519)
9217. Yankees (84-78, .519)
9318. Mariners (86-76, .531)
9419. Cardinals (86-76, .531)
9520. Tigers (86-75, .534)
9621. Giants (87-75, .537)
9722. Mets (87-75, .537)
9823. Orioles (89-73, .549)
9924. Blue Jays (89-73, .549)
10025. Dodgers (91-71, .562)
10126. Red Sox (93-69, .574)
10227. Indians (94-67, .584)
10328. Nationals (95-67, .586)
10429. Rangers (95-67, .586)
10530. Cubs (103-58, .640)

Some overall draft thoughts:

  • Pittsburgh will have the 12th, 42nd, 50th and 73rd picks in the first two rounds.
  • Interestingly, the three teams that gave up 1st rounders all have supplemental 2nd round picks, probably factoring into their willingness to give up the 1st rounder.
  • The three teams that picked up extra 1st round picks (Toronto, Texas, Chicago) are all 2016 playoff teams.  I think the impact of the QO draft pick compensation system is now so far away from what it intended that it borders on the ridiculous.
  • Minnesota picks 1st, 35th, 37th and 76th.  It’ll be interesting to see what they do with the 1st overall pick, whether they go the safe route and pick someone like Jeren Kendall from Vanderbilt or whether they take one of the huge upside prep players near the top of draft boards right now (Hunter Greene or Jordan Adell).  Its pretty early for draft coverage though; check back in a few months for this.
  • Despite winning the world series, the Cubs will pick 27th, 30th and then 67th.  Three picks in the top 70 for the WS champion; the rich get richer.

Post-publishing note: MLB handed down the punishment in the hacking scandal and it costs St. Louis their first two picks; they now go to Houston.  This changes the above draft order by giving St. Louis’ 56th and 75th pick to Houston.  So Houston now owns the #15, #53, #56, #75 and 91st overall picks in this draft while St. Louis does not draft until the 3rd round, #94 overall.


Lastly, lets talk about the impact for the Nats and their 2017 draft:

  • We moved up three spots in the 1st round; now we pick 25th overall.
  • We then pick 65th and 103th.
  • After that, we pick 133rd and in 30 pick increments afterwards.  So 163rd, 193rd, 223rd, etc.

25th overall is still a good spot.  Here’s the 25th overall picks from the last few drafts (courtesy as always of baseball-reference.com)

  • 2016: Eric Lauer, a solid LHP from Kent State who had a 1.44 ERA in 7 starts in the Northwoods league for his pro debut.
  • 2015: D.J. Stewart, a slugger from Florida State who posted an .837 OPS in the Carolina League this year.
  • 2014: Matt Chapman, a SS/3B from Cal State Fullerton who hit 36 homers between AA and AAA this year.
  • 2013: Christian Arroyo, a prep SS who hit .274 as a 21yr old playing full time in AA this year.
  • 2012: Richie Shaffer, a utility guy with some pop who has been up and down for Tampa Bay the last two years between MLB and AAA.
  • 2011: Joe Ross, who I think we’re all pretty high on even given his arm issues from last year.
  • 2010: Zack Cox, a solid hitting 3B who shot up St. Louis’ system and was flipped to Miami, where his career stalled at the AAA level
  • 2009: Mike Trout.  Yeah; Mike Trout was “only” the 25th overall pick.  There’s 24 teams who are kicking themselves for the next 20 years.
  • 2008: Christian Friedrich, who started all last year for San Diego but may be destined for the bullpen.
  • 2007: Aaron Poreda, who struggled in the bullpen for Texas and has pitched in Japan for the last two years.

So, generally there seems to be solid college players at the 25th overall, with some upside if you gamble on a prep kid.  That’s probably what we’re looking at in that range come June.

 

Hall of Fame candidates with Nationals ties (2017 version)

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Pudge's last official team photo.

Pudge’s last official team photo.

Congratulations to a deserving 2017 Hall of Fame class; Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines and Ivan Rodriguez were all elected through the most recent round of balloting.

This is the Class of 2017 Version of this post: first one was done after the 2014 Hall of Fame class was announced and the voting results made public, and then the next was done after the Class of 2015 was announced.  And here’s the  2016 version of this post, from which all the text for prior ballots is cut-n-pasted.  It is here for your reminiscing enjoyment.

Nats connected names on the 2017 ballot and 2017 eligible:

  • Ivan Rodriguez, aka “Pudge,” who surprisingly signed a 2-year deal with the team after the 2009 season and played his last two years with the rebuilding team, splitting time with the up-and-coming Wilson Ramos and retiring after the 2011 season.  He was part of the rebound years for the franchise but missed out on their breakout 2012 season.  There was some surprise when he got in on the 1st ballot, given his PED suspicions, but I take his election as a sign of the changing times with the electorate.  There’s definitely a difference between suspicions and a real failed test, and inarguably Pudge is one of the best catchers of all time so there’s no reason to keep him out.  Here’s a great link of a video of Pudge finding out he was elected.
  • Matt Stairs, whose name I can’t quite say without cursing, who sucked at the teet of the Washington Nationals payroll for half a season in 2011 before being mercifully released on August 1st of that year.  Stairs now is now a regular in my semi-annual “Nats to Oblivion” posts, last done in April of 2016.  He received zero votes and falls off the ballot.
  • Alex Cora: like Stairs, he signed on as a veteran FA to be a role player with the 2011 Nats and retired after the 2011 season.  Unlike Stairs, Cora wasn’t judged to even be worthy to make the ballot.
  • (As we all know, Tim Raines, Vladimir Guerrero, Orlando Cabrera and Larry Walker all grew up with the Montreal franchise, but never appeared for the team post-move to Washington, so I havn’t included them here.  Cabrera was the closest to appearing in a Nats uniform, getting traded to Boston mid 2004 season just prior to the move).

Useful Hall of Fame links links:

  • 2017 Ballot on baseball-reference.com, with links to vote counts, stats, etc.
  • Full Voting figures via BBWAA.com

This post will let you answer the trivia question, “Prior to Ivan Rodrigiez’s enshrinement, what former Nats player has come the closest to Hall of Fame enshrinement?”  (Answer at the bottom).

We’ll work from most recent to oldest.

2016 Ballot:

Not a single Nats-connected was on the official Class of 2016 ballot.  As it turned out, There’s actually quite a few guys who were *candidates* for the 2016 ballot by requirements, but who didn’t make the cut who also had connections to the Nationals.  In fact, there’s quite a few of them.  Here’s a good list, thanks to the excellent research by Bill from platoonadvantage.com.

  • Ronnie Belliard: Played pretty well for the god-awful stretch of Nationals teams from 2007-2009, posting a nifty 123 OPS+ during the middle season before getting traded away at the 2009 trade deadline for two minor leaguers who never went anywhere (Luis Garcia, Victor Garate).  Stuck with Los Angeles one more season before hanging them up at 35.  Played parts of 13 seasons in the majors but didn’t rate a spot on the ballot.
  • Jesus Colome was an important part of the Nats bullpen during the same 2007-2009 span that Belliard was involved with, getting more than 120 appearances his first two seasons before posting an 8 ERA in 2009 and getting DFA’d in July.  He got picked up the next year by Seattle and got a few appearances (hence why he’s not on the “Nats to Oblivion” lists) and, if you can believe it, is still pitching at age 37 in the independent Atlantic league as we speak.  He did manage 10 distinct years w/ MLB appearances though, so he qualified.
  • Jose Guillen came to Washington with the Expos, played one solid year in 2005, had a season-ending elbow injury in 2006, then bounced around the league for a few more years.  He was active for 14 total seasons but never made an all star game.  He hit 24 homers for the surprising 2005 Nats … and led the league in HBPs.
  • Cristian Guzman signed a somewhat controversial 4yr/$16M contract (it cost the team its 2nd round pick) that started when the team moved to Washington, was god-awful his first year, then had to have shoulder surgery to miss the entirety of 2006.  He recovered his stroke in 2007 and actually made the all-star team in 2008 (our only representative during the dark years) … which was enough to convince our idiot GM Jim Bowden to give him a 2yr/$16M extension to an aging shortstop w/ no power on the wrong side of 30.  Not surprisingly, his OPS dropped 100 points in 2009 and the team dumped him on Texas in a trade-deadline deal after he had lost his starting job to Ian Desmond, netting the Nats two RHPs (one of which Tanner Roark makes this one of the better trades ever consummated by the Nats executive staff).  Guzman played in 15 more games for Texas, batted .152 and never played again.

2015 Ballot:

  • Aaron Boone, who signed a 1yr/$1M FA contract to be a backup corner infielder with the abhorrent 2008 Nationals team.  Boone’s crowning baseball achievement was his extra innings walk-off homer that ended one of the best games in MLB history (Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS between Boston and the Yankees, ranked #6 by MLB’s panel a few years back when ranking the best 20 games of the last half century).  Ironically one of his lowest moments was just a couple months later, blowing out his ACL that subsequent winter while playing pickup basketball, costing him the entirety of the 2004 season and the trust of the  Yankees organization.  He missed 2/3rds of the 2007 season after another left knee injury and the Nats were probably his last gasp shot at extending his career at the age of 35.  He got a decent amount of playing time thanks to the fragility of Ryan Zimmerman and Nick Johnson, somehow got another guaranteed MLB deal the following year, went 0-14 for Houston and was released.  He’s now an analyst with ESPN.  Received 2 votes on the 2015 ballot.
  • Ron Villone signed a minor league deal in 2009 and was quickly added to the Nats active roster, where he appeared in 63 games as our primary one-out lefty.   He pitched the entirety of 2010 on another minor league contract with Syracuse, posting a 6.59 ERA as a 40-year old and never earning a call-up.   In 2011 he was invited to spring training again (perhaps with the hope that he’d join the organization as a coach) but he got cut, then pitched a handful of indy league games for his home-town New Jersey indy league team, got hammered, and hung them up.   He retired having played in 15 seasons for no less than 12 different teams.  In 2012 he took a pitching coach job with the Cubs organization (one of the teams he managed NOT to play for during his career) and has been moving up their organization in that capacity since.  Received Zero Hall-of-Fame votes by virtue of not appearing on the BBWAA ballot.
  • Julian Tavarez signed a one-year deal in the beginning of 2009, started out decently but had an awful stretch that resulted in his DFA in mid July 2009.  He never threw another pitch in organized ball, abruptly retiring considering his mid-season release.  He ended a 17-year career spanning 11 different franchises.  Received Zero Hall-of-Fame votes by virtue of not appearing on the BBWAA ballot.  According to his wiki page, he now resides in a suburb of Cleveland (his original professional team) but does not list any post-career activities, baseball-related or otherwise.  Received Zero Hall-of-Fame votes by virtue of not appearing on the BBWAA ballot.

Both Tavarez and Villone belong to the infamous “From Nationals to Oblivion” club, a topic we revisit on an annual basis.

Note: it is not entirely clear to me why Villone and Tavarez were not actually ON the 2015 ballot; both seem to have the qualifications (10 years of experience and 5 years retired) and both were on previous versions of the “anticipated ballot” at baseball-reference.com, but neither showed up on BBWAA’s official ballot for this year.  Pete Kerzel did a post reviewing “Nats connected” 2015 ballot members when the ballot came out in Nov 2014 and only mentioned Boone.  I include them here since it seems to me they *should* be on the ballot and I’m not sure why they were not (unless someone is passing judgement on the “quality” of HoFame ballot members).  Are they pushed to subsequent ballots for some reason?  If anyone has insight i’d love to know.

2014 Ballot:

  • Paul Lo Duca: one of Bowden’s more infamous signings; he went from our opening day catcher in the 2008 season to being released by August 1st.  The highlight of his tenure here was having his name being revealed in the Mitchell Report just a couple days after signing with us.  After his release, he signed on to finish out the season with Florida, took a year off and attempted a come back in 2010 (signing a ML contract with Colorado but never appearing above AAA).   Hard to believe this guy was a 4-time all-star.  Received Zero hall-of-fame votes.

2013 Ballot:

  • Royce Clayton; signed a contract to be the Nats shortstop during the lean Jim Bowden years, and then was included in the Mega swap of players that headed to Cincinnati in the 2006 season.  He hung around for one more season in 2007 as a backup short stop and retired afterwards.  Received Zero hall-of-fame votes.
  • Mike Stanton was picked up in mid 2005 after being released by the Yankees, and he pitched well enough for the Nats that he was able to fetch a couple of low-level prospects in a late September move to Boston (who was looking for some late season bullpen cover).  The team then re-signed Stanton for 2006, and flipped him again mid-season, this time to the Giants for Shairon Martis.  Stanton toiled a one more season before hanging them up after 2007.   Received Zero hall-of-fame votes.

2012 Ballot:

  • Vinny Castilla: signed a two year deal to join the Nats, timed with their inaugural season in Washington, but was traded to Colorado for SP Brian Lawrence when it became apparent that Ryan Zimmerman was set to man the hot corner in DC for the next decade or so.  Played one more season and retired after 2006.  Received Six (6) Hall-of-fame votes.

2011 Ballot:

  • Carlos Baerga: signed a one year deal as a 36-yr old to join the Nats in their inaugural season and serve as a backup infielder.   Hit .253 in part-time duty and hung ’em up after a 14-year career that can be well described as “journey-man.”   He was an integral part of the early 90s Cleveland Indians as their starting 2nd baseman and a 3-time all-star, and ended up playing on 6 major league teams and spent parts one season in Korea.  Received Zero hall-of-fame votes.

So, outside of Pudge’s election, the Nats greatest Hall of Fame achievement is Vinny Castilla receiving 6 sympathy votes.

We still have to wait a while to see another player with a “W” on their hat in Cooperstown.

 

 

Thoughts on the new CBA and what it reportedly contains

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ESPN’s Jayson Stark posted some of what he’s hearing in the new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA), struck late on 11/30/16 so as to beat the 12/1 deadline.  And so far, I like what the two sides have agreed upon.  Post-publishing updateCraig Calcaterra also posted a reaction and listed other new items in the CBA that Stark didn’t have; i’ll tack them on as we find them out to this post.

Going over the main issues and changes that we’ll see, here’s some thoughts issue-by-issue:

  • Luxury Tax increases: this is as close as the league has to a “salary cap” and it has served more or less as one, as we’ve seen the historically profligate Yankees curb their spending recently so as to get under the tax.  That hasn’t stopped the Dodgers from spending $250M-$300M, but even that will come under fire due to a newly discovered “debt ratio” issue.  Nonetheless, an increase of the tax is favorable to the players.
  • Elimination Modificatino of the Qualifying Offer: thank goodness!  Finally no more ridiculous QO system, which has done nothing to help small market teams and had the effect basically of destroying the markets of a few key players over the years (Ian DesmondKendrys Morales, etc).  Instead, only teams above the luxury tax will lose picks (good) and teams losing players will still get draft pick compensation (good).  Details still coming out but the picks that are in jeopardy seem to be non 1st round picks, which means teams won’t be as beholden to them, helping out the players and preventing some of the QO-attached nightmare situations we’ve seen.
  • No more Home field advantage determined by the All Star Game: finally.  The elimination of perhaps the dumbest thing Baseball has done in the last 30 years.
  • Banning of Smokeless tobacco: Really, why is this an issue?  I don’t get it; are they banning cigarettes too?  This seems like a petty restriction on what adults do to their bodies that has no bearing on the game.  I guess its all about optics.
  • Slight lengthening of the regular season: gives a few extra days off here and there.  We’re already playing the world Series into November, what’s a few more days?
  • More day games on getaway days: Like this; I wish there were more day games.  Why are nearly all of Washington’s Saturday games night games?  Families with small children are basically shut out of 6/7ths of the team’s games because of this.
  • Minimum Salary Increases: probably only fair, as we learn more and more about how little some guys get paid versus what they accomplish on the field in the modern day economics.
  • Revenue Sharing issues: details yet to emerge, but we do know that Oakland was specifically mentioned as losing their revenue sharing.  This seems odd to me; why single out Oakland and not other teams that seem to be abusing the system as well (ahem, Miami)?  I wonder if this leads to a change of ownership in Oakland, a change of direction, a more forceful attempt to relocate, etc.
  • Increased Drug Testing to include HGHthis was probably inevitable, as both sides support cleaning up the game for separate reasons.  Who is against drug testing?  
  • Domestic Violence Policy: this was bound to be included too, given the spate of DV issues we’ve seen in the last year among prominent athletes.  Only comment here is … why just DV?  Why not have a blanket policy for all sorts of infractions?  DUIs, assults, etc?
  • Minimum Disabled List Stay Reduced From 15 to 10 Days: I like this rule in that it seems that many injuries are either hidden or just buried thanks to the 15-day limit.  A shorter limit should help get players back faster.

There’s apparently significant changes that have not been disclosed yet that may be of real interest, especially to this writer and the readers here:

  • Changes to the Rule 4 Draft: changes coming, maybe more slotting dollars, perhaps even trading of draft picks.  This would be great.
  • Regular Season Games outside US: like in London.  Why not?
  • Service-time rules: Probably in response to the Kris Bryant-like burying of players for 2 weeks in April, or related to the Super-2.  But the problem with any hard deadline is this: no matter when you put the deadline, there’s always a way to delay to get around it.  I like Keith Law‘s proposals that basically give teams an extra year of “restricted free agency” instead of dealing with service time manipulations.
  • MLB expansion: we havn’t talked about expansion here in a while.  I posted in July 2015 asking why people thought Montreal was still a viable expansion market, but the last time I really analyzed expansion was in July of 2011, when I postulated that it may be easier logistically to expand from 30->32 instead of realigning the leagues to have 15 & 15 and have interleague every day.  At the time I postulated that Portland and San Antonio would make sense as expansion markets, and it was super-fun doing realignment scenarios with 8 divisions and 2 new teams, but the issues facing expansion detailed in that July 2011 post are significant and remain (basically TV contracts and market viability).  I remain pessimistic that there’s any shot of expanding baseball unless you eliminate anti-trust exemption and get rid of the RSN TV market lockdowns that exist currently.
  • Replay: hopefully they can make it faster, smarter.  The current system is just dumb; close play on the field, manager sends someone to the clubhouse to decide if they’re challenging … it all takes too much time.
  • Pace of game: hopefully this includes a two-batter minimum for relievers.  We’ll see.  
  • Ways to discourage tankingnot sure how you fix this.  The discrepancy between free agent salaries and pre-arb prices is so amazingly large that it makes more sense to just bottom out and start over rather than attempt to re-tool.  

Major things that were NOT apparently addressed in the CBA but which would be nice to see (this is also from my personal “Commissioner for a day” type post)

  • No International Draft: I think this is a win for the game, but the fact that the owners pushed for it is a concern for the next CBA.  I still don’t understand why owners can’t see the forest for the trees; if they implement an international draft so as to save a few million dollars of bonus money, they risk losing entire countries of development for players.  Its so shortsighted.  I hope the players continue to fight against it.
  • Roster Expansion: lots of talk of a 26th player, but that would have flied in the face of the Pace of Game changes that we hope to see; we want to see fewer relievers, not more.
  • Limitations on 9/1 Roster Expansion: I’d like to see some sort of game-day limit of active players instead of having unbalanced rosters; why would the Nats on Sept 15th have 5 more players at their disposal than their opponent who chose not to call up extra guys?  Makes no sense.
  • Elimination of the DH and/or Universal DH: i’m on record being pro Universal DH despite being in an NL town.  But its a religious argument at this point so i’m more just for standardizing rules.
  • Revamp All-Star Game to be full of actual Stars: as in, eliminate the “one player per team” requirement and just put the best players on the team for this exhibition.
  • Forcibly fix the MASN issue: The current situation is ridiculous, with a team that already got a sweetheart deal reneging on the terms of an agreement and fighting rulings more on technicality grounds and less on their merits.  Enough is enough.  I read somewhere a very interesting opinion that stated that MLB is just waiting out Peter Angelos, that when he dies they’ll make it a part of the transfer of the ball club to give up their MASN share.  Makes sense and is the kind of dirty long-play thing that Bud Selig would have been in favor of. 
  • Eliminate TV markets/Anti Trust exemption: I think the time has come for teams to have the flexibility to move where they can be financially viable.  This goes for Tampa and Oakland immediately, but possibly to other teams down the road.

I may updated this post as more official details come out to offer more opinions, but so far I like all the changes that i’ve heard.  What do you guys think?

Written by Todd Boss

December 1st, 2016 at 10:18 am

Qualifying Offers 2016; Will the Nats give up a pick for one of these guys?

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Desmond gets a Q.O. ... and gets screwed. Note this is the same picture and same caption I put in this post last year. Photo Drew Kinback/Natsnq.com

Desmond gets a Q.O. … and gets screwed. Note this is the same picture and same caption I put in this post last year. Photo Drew Kinback/Natsnq.com

This year’s crop of Qualifying Offer-attached FAs has been announced; lets look at the ten guys who will have to deal with draft pick compensation as they attempt to find a new team:

YearPlayerPOSAgentOld TeamPrevious ContractPrevious Contract AAVWalk year salaryQ.O.
2016Yoenis CespedesOFBrodie Van Wagenen / Roc NationNew York Mets1yr/$27.5M27.5M27.5M$17.2M
2016Dexter FowlerOF (cf)Casey Close/Excel Sports ManagementChicago Cubs1 year/$13M13M13M$17.2M
2016Justin Turner3BLegacy AgencyLos Angeles Dodgers1 year/$5.1M5.1M5.1M$17.2M
2016Edwin Encarnacio1B/DHRep 1 BaseballToronto4 years/$39M9.75M10M$17.2M
2016Neil Walker2BExcel SportsNew York Mets1 year/$10.55M10.55M10.55M$17.2M
2016Kenley JansenRHP (closer)Wasserman Media GroupLos Angeles Dodgers1 year/$10.65M10.6510.65$17.2M
2016Ian DesmondOF (cf)/SSCAA Baseball (was Sports One Athlete Management)Texas1 year/$8M8m8m$17.2M
2016Jeremy HellicksonRHP (starter)Scott Boras/Boras CorporationPhiladelphia1 year/$7M7m7m$17.2M
2016Jose BautistaOF (RF)Jay Alou, Epitome SportsToronto6 years/$79M13.16M14M$17.2M
2016Mark Trumbo1b/OFWasserman Media GroupBaltimore1 year/$9.15M9.15M9.15M$17.2M

And here’s a list of the 10 worst teams from 2016 who have protected 1st rounders:

  1. Twins (59-103, .364)
  2. Reds (68-94, .420)
  3. Padres (68-94, .420)
  4. Rays (68-94, .420)
  5. Braves (68-93, .422)
  6. A’s (69-93, .426)
  7. D-backs (69-93, .426)
  8. Phillies (71-91, .438)
  9. Brewers (73-89, .451)
  10. Angels (74-88, .457)

Of these 10 teams, I think its fair to say that only a couple of them are possible FA shoppers anyway. Twins, Reds, Padres, DBacks, Brewers all seem to still be in “re-boot” mode, the Braves and Phillies are probably in a “cautious shopping” mode, the Rays and A’s are in a “never spend money” mode, and the Angels are in a “we’re already spending way too much money” mode.  So it’d be a  huge surprise if a protected team even takes advantage of this FA crop.

Here’s 11-30, in order, all of whom will have to spend their 1st round pick if they sign players:

11. Rockies (75-87, .463)
12. White Sox (78-84, .481)
13. Pirates (78-83, .484)
14. Marlins (79-82, .491)
15. Royals (81-81, .500)
16. Astros (84-78, .519)
17. Yankees (84-78, .519)
18. Mariners (86-76, .531)
19. Cardinals (86-76, .531)
20. Tigers (86-75, .534)
21. Giants (87-75, .537)
22. Mets (87-75, .537)
23. Orioles (89-73, .549)
24. Blue Jays (89-73, .549)
25. Dodgers (91-71, .562)
26. Red Sox (93-69, .574)
27. Indians (94-67, .584)
28. Nationals (95-67, .586)
29. Rangers (95-67, .586)
30. Cubs (103-58, .640)

I can’t really see the first few teams giving up picks; maybe you have to get to Houston at #16 before you have a real big-market team looking to spend money.  From about the Yankees on down, practically all these teams may be considering one of the 10 QO players and forfeiting their pick.

There’s a couple of interesting players here, so here’s some commentary.

  • Yoenis Cespedes: opted out of two years and $43M to hit FA again; he’s the marquee hitter on the market and he’ll get a 9-figure deal.  I think he’ll struggle to match $27.5M AAV, but that won’t bother him.  Teams shouldn’t have any issues cashing in a 1st rounder for him.  Linked to the Nats but not really; there’s just no way they can get him to fit into their payroll unless they drastically jack it up from 2016 levels.
  • Dexter Fowler decides to roll the dice again; that may be a mistake, maybe not.  If he gets 3yrs and $40M guaranteed he’ll be happy.  Linked to the Nats; see below.
  • Justin Turner came out of nowhere to earn a $17M offer; he’s only making $5M this year.  Is he tempted to take the offer?
  • Encarnacion and Bautista both seem likely to leave Toronto; I think the limits on their markets is less about the QO and more about their aging “old-man” skill sets.
  • Neil Walker is coming off a back injury; but there’s also not a ton of depth in the 2B market for those teams looking.  Still, $17M is a hefty improvement on his 2016 $10.5M salary.
  • Jansen seems crazy to pass up this kind of money … except that there’s several big-market teams dying for a new closer (ours included).  I don’t see the Nats forking over this cash, instead taking a cheaper option like Holland (assuming he can still throw).
  • Desmond; poor Ian Desmond, saddled with the offer yet again.  Maybe he takes it this year.  I’m not really sure what has changed in terms of his market.  Recently linked with Baltimore.
  • Hellickson taking the QO just to screw Philly would be awesome … but he also knows that despite his mediocre career he’s one of the best 2-3 options this off-season.
  • Trumbo; Only $9.15M this year; could he take the offer and double his pay?  Probably no reason to; he likely just had his best career year and he’ll get the best contract offer he can right now.

In the end; i don’t see an obvious QO taker.  Last year 20 players got offered the QO and a number took it, finally calling the owner’s bluff.  So many players that might have entertained offers didn’t get them this year, and of the above list only one or two possibly could take it if they were worried about their markets, but likely nobody takes it.


From a  Nats perspective; do any of these players move the needle for you, enough so to give up the #28 overall pick?  We have definitely shown a proclivity towards cashing in that pick to acquire players.  But of these 10 guys, who are really targets for the Nats?

We can rule many out of the way immediately:

  • Turner: we don’t need a 3B.
  • Walker: we don’t need a 2B
  • Hellickson: we don’t need a starter
  • Desmond: can’t see a reunion, not for a guy who barely plays CF.
  • Trumbo: this FO seems smart enough to see what Trumbo is (a homer-only DH).
  • Encarnacion: similar to Trumbo in that he’s 1B/DH … and we already have someone at 1B.

So we’re down to really 4 contenders:

  • Jansen: Even though we need a closer, I can’t see this FO spending that much on a closer and think they’ll go a cheaper route.
  • Cespedes; Cespedes is the #1 FA on the market and will probably get some ridiculous amount of money per season from a bigger market team; also priced out of the Nats budget.  Would force Harper to CF AND would force Werth back to right, providing a pretty significant negative impact to the Nats outfield defense.
  • Bautista: Yeah he’s a marquee bat … but his BA took a nose dive in 2016, he’s already 36 and seems to have the kind of classic “old-man slugger” skills that evaporate seemingly overnight.  If his 2016 had been more like his 2015 season, maybe.  His once vaunted RF defense has also taken a significant hit, posting negative UZR and “arm” ratings the last two seasons after being one of the premier defenders there for years.  Would also force Harper to CF and would
  • Fowler; perhaps the one FA that makes sense for all factors (age, positional fit and quality).  If the Nats signed him, it would immediately trigger many of the moves we’re all predicting (Turner back to short, non-tender of Revere, trade of Espinosa) and really improves the lineup.  Fowler batted lead-off for the Cubs and posted nearly a .400 OPS; putting him 1-2 with Turner at the top would really galvanize the run production out of the big bats in the lineup.

Imagine this lineup: Turner SS, Fowler CF, Harper RF, Rendon 3B, Murphy 2B, Werth LF, Zimmerman 1B, C, P.   That’d go R-S-L-R-L-R-R for good balance with some serious OBP in the 1-2-3 slots for contact hitters like Rendon and Murphy to drive in.

So.  Will Fowler sign here?  We have serious suitors for his talents (most are projecting him to St.Louis).  We’ll see.  But for me Fowler is worth giving up a pick.

 

Nats post-2016 “GM for a Day” Off-Season Priorities for filling Roster Holes

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Ramos may be the toughest off-season decision the team makes. Photo via wp.com

Ramos may be the toughest off-season decision the team makes. Photo via wp.com

Another year, another playoff failure.  Beat it to death already.  Time to move on.

Lets talk about the post-season “To Do” list is for the Nats.  We’ll have eventual posts to talk about other stuff, like Tender decisions, 40-man decisions ahead of the Rule5 draft, etc.

In this post, we’ll squint at the overall roster, look at blatant holes that will need filling, and discuss how they might get filled.  Call it the cliche’s “General Manager for a day” post for the Nats this coming off-season.


Pending Free Agents we are waving good-bye to and the holes they thus leave (as per the invaluable Cots site at BaseballProspectus):

  • Mark Melancon: though i’d love to re-sign him … see later in the post.
  • Wilson Ramos: his injury is a shame for both player and team; he likely lost $50M in guaranteed FA money and the team lost a clear QO-compensation pick.  He may not even be able to catch again, which dumps him to the AL, where his market is significantly cut thanks to the lessening of demand for bat-only DH types.  Ramos is in serious career jeopardy right now; would he decamp back to the Nats on some sort of minimally guaranteed deal with performance incentives?
  • Stephen Drew: also one I hope re-signs; see later in the post.
  • Chris Heisey: one who I think is replaceable; look for another cattle call for RH bat options this coming spring training.
  • Matt Belisle: despite not making the NLDS roster, he was great for Washington this year and is worth another contract.
  • Mark Rzepczynski: He’s been very effective for us, and overall had a good 2016.  His 2015 was awful, but he was good before that.  Such is the life of specialist relievers.
  • Sean Burnett and Mat Latos: both given Sept 2016 tryouts; neither seem likely to be retained.
  • Jonathan Papelbon: worth mentioning if only for the payroll flexibility.

Total payroll “savings” from these FAs: roughly $22M.  Papelbon’s $11M, Ramos’ $5.3M and the rest total about $6M.

Guys who I think are clear Non-Tenders (probably a topic worth its own post).

  • Yusmeiro Petit: $3M option with $500k buyout for 2017; pitched poorly in 2016, didn’t make the post-season roster and should be replaceable on the roster by any number of our AAA starters.
  • Ben Revere: $6.25M salary this year, due an arbitration raise for 2017; struggled badly in 2016, lost his job to a guy who had about 2 week of CF experience and didn’t make the post-season roster.
  • Aaron Barrett: as heartless as it would be; he’s arb-eligible, still hurt, not likely to be ready by opening day and is completely replaceable as a RH middle reliever).

Total savings from these non-tenders: roughly $10M

Guys who I think its Time to Trade and the holes they thus leave.  This also may be worthy of its own whole post.

  • Gio Gonzalez: I think the Nats can take advantage of a historically weak FA market for starters and Gio’s very friendly contract (two $12M options for 2017 and 2018) and move him.  Yes he struggled this year, but if you look at what middle rotation innings eaters like him are getting these days, $12M is a bargain and he should fetch something we value.  Moving him lets some of the guys who are clearly biting on the heels of a deserved rotation spot earn it for 2017 and thus the Nats “save” $11.5M in salary for the 2017 roster.
  • Danny Espinosa: As much as I have argued against this, his 2017 playoff performance has solidified in my mind the need to move him.  He has his pros (a plus defender range wise, perhaps the best SS arm in the game, and serious power for a SS) and his cons (he hit just .209 this year, he strikes out at about a 30% clip, and his switch hitting capabilities are really in question).  Nonetheless, there has to be some demand for a 25-home run capable plus defender SS in a lineup that can afford one crummy batting average at the bottom of the order.  Perhaps an AL team that doesn’t have to also bat a sub .200 BA pitcher.

Total savings from these guys getting moved (not counting payroll received in return of course): $15-$16M.

So, adding up all three lines, assuming a steady payroll ceiling similar to this year’s and not counting arbitration raises (or Strasburg‘s new contract), you’d have roughly $47M with which to work.  Not bad.  Strasburg’s new contract will take $5M away from that flexibility (he made $10M last year, will make $15M next) and arbitration raises for Harper, Rendon and Roark will cost some cash, but that’s a post for another day.  Lets call it $30M in available FA dollars when all is said and done.


So, assuming you’re even reading this far and havn’t already started commenting and arguing about that list of players, here’s the presumed holes that losing these 10 players leaves (in order of mention above):

  • Closer
  • Starting Catcher
  • Backup Utility Infielder
  • Backup RH bench bat/corner outfielder
  • 6th/7th inning RH reliever
  • Loogy
  • Long Man/Spot starter/7th guy out of the pen
  • Backup Outfielder (CF capable)
  • Another 6th/7th inning RH reliever
  • #5 Starter
  • Starting Shortstop
  • (and not really counting the “loss” of Burnett and Latos for this discussion)

If we just filled these holes internally, what would it look like?

  • Closer: Make Shawn Kelley the closer and move up Treinen and Glover to be 8th inning guys.  This leaves a hole later on in the pen for the middle RH relievers (see below)
  • Starting Catcher: promote Lobaton to starter and install Severino as the backup.  Or switch them; honestly I like Severino’s at-bats; he looks confident.  I don’t think Kieboom is ready for the show, so it makes sense to tender Lobaton for one more year.
  • Backup Utility InfielderDifo becomes the first go-to guy to backup Turner/Murphy, but we’ll still need another utility guy.
  • Backup RH bench bat/corner outfielder: not much internally to go to; both the 2016 AAA and AA rosters are basically bereft of decent hitting prospects who might be candidates.  We’ll be trolling the FA market here for sure.  See the next section.
  • Two 6th/7th inning RH relievers: We have Gott and Martin on the 40-man; they could step up to replace these two guys like for like.  Right now we have five RH relievers under contract for 2017 (Kelley, Treinen, Glover, Gott and Martin) to go along with two lefties (Solis and Perez); that’s not too bad of a bullpen to start out with, but could be improved.  And this lineup doesn’t “really” have a long man, so you’d have to think one of Gott or Martin is in AAA to make room for a long-man (likely Martin at this point).
  • Loogy: its arguable whether we need another lefty with both Solis and Perez under contract, but they went most of the year this year with three.  Matt Grace is still on the 40-man and would be an internal option.
  • Long Man/Spot starter/7th guy out of the pen: loser of #5 starter competition (see below)
  • Backup Outfielder (CF capable)Michael Taylor, in what likely is his ceiling from here forward.
  • #5 Starter: have Sprint Training 2017 tryouts for the #5 starter between Lopez, Giolito, Cole and even Voth (who I’m assuming by that time will be on the 40-man, protected ahead of this coming off-season’s Rule-5 draft).  The winner is #5 starter, and one of the losers could be the long-man (well, if the loser is someone like Cole or Voth, who aren’t nearly as “big” of a prospect as Giolito).  There’s also the distinct possibility that Lopez’s arm is turned into a closer at some point if he can’t turn over lineups.  Check out Lopez’s 2016 splits, specifically SP versus RP and specifically the “Times Facing an Opponent” during the game; as a starter he struggles with the first time through the order, but not as a reliever.
  • Starting Shortstop: move Trea Turner to his natural position, leaving a hole in Center.

So, with my “all internal” fill-ins, your 25 man roster for 2017 looks something like this:

  • Starters: Scherzer, Strasburg, Roark, Ross, Lopez
  • Relievers: Kelley, Treinen, Glover, Gott, Solis*, Perez*, Cole
  • Catchers: Lobaton, Severino
  • INF Starters: Rendon, Turner, Murphy, Zimmerman
  • INF backups: Difo, Robinson
  • OF Starters: Werth, Harper
  • OF Backups: Taylor, Goodwin

And we’re missing one-two spots that don’t really have natural in-house replacements: another backup infielder and a starting Center fielder.

So, looking at that 25-man roster, where do we see areas of need?  This feeds directly into the Off-season Priorities in the next section.


Quick diversion: Notice I didn’t say what position Bryce Harper is playing.  Honestly, if Turner is vacating CF and we’re waving good-bye to Espinosa, then I think you have to put Harper in center.  Here’s my main arguments for putting him in center (most of which are “anti-arguments” for those who for some reason think he cannot play center):

  1. He’s young.   He just turned 24 for crying out loud; there’s no reason he doesn’t have the youth or athleticism to handle center.  Mantle did it while hitting for power.  So did Mays.  So did Griffey Jr and Aaron for the early part of his career.  Trout plays center.
  2. He’s got the arm (he has the 2nd best statistically rated arm in the majors in 2016), he’s got the speed (21 Stolen bases this year).  And now he has years of OF experience on which to depend.
  3. He’s played there before and played well.  Here’s his career fielding stats from fangraphs.com: He had more than 700 innings in CF in 2012 and played it to a fantastic UZR/150 figure of 19.1 and 13 DRS.  He was also great there in more limited sample sizes in 2013 and 2015.  I leave out 2014 since that was his injury season and its clearly skewed as compared to his other seasons.
  4. By putting Harper in Center, you vastly open open up the roster possibilities on the FA market.  Look at the pending FA last at mlbtraderumors.com and compare/contrast the available options at CF versus LF/RF.

Top FA/Trade Priorities in 2016-2017 Off-season

Fantasy: I view these as not really possible but are listed as “fantasy” wish lists.  Both fixate on moving unmovable contracts, so they’ll probably remain fantasies.

  • Upgrade 1B: dump Zimmerman and upgrade offensively at that position.
  • Upgrade LF: dump Werth and the last year of his deal and find a LF-capable bopper.
  • Acquire a leading CF: back up the farm system and dump it out for a leading center fielder.  Charlie Blackmon or Andrew McCutchen are names often mentioned thanks to the precarious position their teams face.  Mike Trout is the funny name you also hear since he’s so good he’s virtually untrade-able.  Unlike Tom Boswell, and as discussed in comments here before, re-signing Ian Desmond to man CF poorly would not be my first choice either.  I’d rather go with my “Bryce to Center” plan as laid out above.

Reality

  • Corner Outfielder.   See above Harper->CF logic.  If you want to splurge (and hurt your #1 divisional rival) sign Yoenis Cespedes.   Or you could make a big splash and sign Jose Bautista to a 3-yr deal that ends the same time Harper hits FA.  Werth remains serviceable in left, where he is mitigated defensively while Bautista still has value in RF.  This is where I could see a big chunk of the $30M of FA dollars going.  Lord knows we could use another clutch hitter in the middle of the order.
  • Closer: Above I said i’d love to re-sign Melancon, but more and more it seems like he’s going to be the 4th prize in a 4-closer musical chairs race.  And he’s gonna get paid.  And I’m not sure that the Nats are going to pay him.  Per the same previously mentioned FA list there’s 5 “active” closers hitting FA: Melancon, Wade Davis, Aroldis Chapman,  Kenley Jansen and Sergio Romo There’s a whole slew of guys who are FA who are former closers though, names like Andrew BaileyJoaquin Benoit, Santiago Casilla, Neftali Feliz, Jason Grilli, Greg Holland, J.J. Hoover, Jonathan Papelbon (haha, just making sure you’re still reading), Joe Smith, Fernando Salas, and Brad Ziegler.  There’s probably even more frankly; these were just the ones who stood out as I read the list.  Now, i’m not saying most of these guys are legitimate options, but some of these guys were perfectly good as closers and got “layered” by better closers.  Take Ziegler for example: he was just fine for Arizona for a while, then got moved to Boston where he got demoted to 8th inning duties.   I’d take him as a late-innings bullpen option.  
  • Bullpen arm: middle reliever: Now, all that being said about Closers, I think maybe what the team does is install one of their existing options as “the closer” and then maybe  hire one of these former closers to be an 8th inning/emergency closer kind of guy.  That’s essentially what they got last year with Shawn Kelley and that’s worked out ok.  I’d go after some of the ex-closer guys listed above, try to get them on an affordable deal (like halfway to closer money maybe) and that’d help off-set the losses of Melancon and Belisle.
  • Veteran utility infielder: as noted above, there’s not much in the farm system here.  If you keep Espinosa and put him in this role, then this is moot .. but we’ve read over and again about his disposition when he’s not playing.  This is kind of why I think we need to move him.  He’s more valuable in trade than he is in this bench role.  I hope the team re-ups with Stephen Drew honestly; he was solid, can cover all infield positions as needed, and can probably be had for a similar deal as last year.  I’d be happy with Difo and Drew and wouldn’t be opposed to perhaps another veteran utility guy to pair with Drew and compete with Difo if we don’t think Difo is up to the task.

Less Likely:

  • Backup LF/IB bench bats: While I like Robinson and I think Heisey did a good job this year, one struggled and the other is a FA with no guarantee of returning.  I absolutely expect to see another spring training cattle call of veteran bats of the LF/1B type to compete for roster spots.  I’m appreciative of Goodwin‘s completely unexpected line at the plate upon his call up; do we think he’s a better lefty bat option off the bench than Robinson?  I’m not sure.  I also sense (based on anecdotal evidence read over the years) that Robinson is a clubhouse and teammate favorite, which might make it tougher to cut him when the time comes.  Especially with a player’s manager type like Dusty Baker.  I know this is where MartyC will cry about Matt Skole (likely to depart in MLFA this coming off-season) and I understand; its all about potential versus production and Skole never produced enough during these annual spring training “tryouts” to win his spot.
  • Catcher: Here’s where the most arguing may occur.  I’m of the belief, after watching Severino down the stretch, that he could slide right into the starting spot right now.  I thought he looked good at the plate, took confident at-bats, never looked over matched, and (here’s the kicker) *puts the ball in play!*   This lineup has too many strikeouts; Severino struck out just 3 times in his 34 PAs down the stretch.   That correlates to about 50 punch-outs over a 600-plate appearance season; that’s awesome.  He was known for years for his defense, not his bat, so if he can provide even competent ABs he could be a starter.  So i’m up for saving money on the FA market (where the catcher ranks are thin and the prices will get bid up badly as a result).  Now, I could absolutely see us re-signing Wilson Ramos to an incentive-laden deal to keep him in house and hopefully get a good second half out of  him.  Why not?  If he signs for $5-6M (basically his salary this year) and then has games played incentives that could take him up to $7 or $8M why wouldn’t he do that here instead of elsewhere?   We go into the season with Severino and Lobaton with Kieboom in AAA and when Ramos shows up we (finally?) cut bait on Lobaton and have the two remaining guys platoon.  I’d be onboard with that plan.
  • Loogy: Why spend money here?  Solis and Perez ably fill the need.  Do we need a third lefty in the pen at the expense of one of the aforementioned righties?  I liked Rzepczynski this year; would he re-sign for reasonable dollars?  Would you want him back?  There’s several interesting names on the FA list; maybe one of them can be had for cheap.

 

What can we get in Trade versus buying on the FA market?   Payroll implications?

  • I suspect that Gonzalez can fetch some seriously valuable resources.  He’s an innings eating 4th starter who probably thrives in a pitcher’s park and is significantly less expensive at $12M/year than what something comparable costs on the FA market this year.  So can he fetch maybe one MLB-ready player that fits a need above plus maybe one decent prospect?  Is that too much?
  • Espinosa probably fetches less, unless you can get a GM to fall in love with his power/defense combo and somehow miss his BA and his K rate.  By way of comparison, Yunel Escobar (a lesser defender with less power but more contact) fetched us two upper-level pitching prospects in Trevor Gott and Michael Brady (by upper-level I mean AA/AAA level, not top 100 prospects).  I’d guess that Espinosa could fetch a bit more since he plays a premium position.  So that could end up being more of the needs above plus maybe an additional prospect.

But who knows what we can and cannot get.  In Mike Rizzo we trust when it comes to trades; no matter how much we bitch about prospects heading out the door, you’re really hard pressed to find a trade where Rizzo got the short end of the bargain or “lost” the deal.  So lets see what he can do.

Payroll implications.  I think we could get a $20M/yr corner OF slugger, a former closer at like $6M/year, resign Ramos at $5M, find a utility infielder in the Drew $3M/year range, and then sign a couple of guys to $1.25M conditional deals like what Belisle and Heisey got and fit right into the $145M payroll budget, even after arbitration raises.

 


Well; that’s a lot to argue about.  Maybe I should have split this up.  But let the discussions begin!

(did I forget anyone?)

Nats All-Star review: 2016 and years past

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This photo is an oldie but a goodie, and one we'll probably see year over year for the next decade at least. Photo unk

This photo is an oldie but a goodie, and one we’ll probably see year over year for the next decade at least. Photo unk

Here’s my annual Nationals All Star selection post.

(* == All-Star game starter.  The Nats now have four ASG starters in their history, dating to 2005.  Soriano once, Harper thrice).

2016

  • Nationals All-Star representatives: Bryce Harper*, Stephen Strasburg, Daniel Murphy, Wilson Ramos, Max Scherzer (named as replacement for Strasburg on 7/8/16),
  • Possible Snubs: Danny EspinosaTanner Roark
  • Narrative: The four obvious candidates from the Nats this year were all initially correctly selected, though voting shenanigans out of Chicago elected Ben Zobrist over Daniel Murphy by a scant 500 votes.   I thought perhaps Strasburg would have a chance to start the game, given his 12-0 record, but it seems the team pre-empted any such thought when Scherzer’s naming occurred).  For the first time writing this post, I can’t really name any “snubs” and the team has (finally?) earned the proper respect it deserves in terms of naming its players properly.  Espinosa had a week for the ages just prior to the end of voting but really stood little chance of selection in the grand scheme of things.  He’s not really a “snub” but is worthy of mention based on his resurgent year.  At the break, Espinosa ranked 3rd in NL fWAR but 7th or 8th in bWAR thanks to differing defensive value metrics, so maybe/maybe not on him being a “snub.”  As pointed out in the comments, even I missed the sneaky good season Roark is having; he’s 12th in the NL in bWAR at the break and 9th in fWAR but was left off in favor of any number of starters that stand below him in value rankings.  Unfortunately for fans (and for Harper’s “Make Baseball Fun again” campaign, he opted to skip the Home Run Derby again.  I guess its kind of like the NBA superstars skipping the dunk contest; the Union should really do a better job of helping out in this regard.  The new format is fantastic and makes the event watchable again; is it ego keeping him from getting beat by someone like Giancarlo Stanton?

Here’s past year’s information, mostly recycled information from past posts on the topic but fun to read nonetheless, especially the early years.

2015

  • Nationals All-Star representatives: Bryce Harper*, Max Scherzer
  • Possible Snubs: Yunel Escobar, Drew Storen
  • Narrative: Harper not only made it in as a starter for the 2nd time, he led the NL in votes, setting a MLB record for total votes received.  This is no surprise; Harper’s easily in the MVP lead for the NL thanks to his amazing first half (his split at the half-way point of the season: .347/.474/.722 with 25 homers and an astounding 225 OPS+).  I guess he won’t be earning the “Most overrated player” award next year.  That Harper is electing to skip the Home run derby in a disappointment; his father is nursing an arm injury can cannot throw to him in the event.  In a weird year for the Nats, the only other regular worth mentioning is newly acquired Escobar, who is hitting above .300 and filling in ably at multiple positions that, prior to this year, he had never played.  Storen is having another excellent regular season … but at a time when mandatory members from each team often leads to other closers being selected (there are 5 NL closers and 7 AL relievers), the odds of him making the All-Star team were always going to be slim.  Scherzer deservedly makes the team and probably would have been the NL starter; he’s got sub 2.00 ERA and FIP and leads all NL pitchers in WAR at the mid-way point of the season.  But his turn came up in the final game of the first half, making him ineligible for the game and forcing his replacement on the roster.

As a side note, the 2015 All-Star game will go down as the “Ballot-Gate” game thanks to MLB’s short-sighted plan to allow 30+ online ballots per email address.  This led to severe “ballot stuffing” by the Kansas City Royals fans, led to MLB  having to eliminate 60 million+ fraudulent ballots, but still led to several Royals being elected starters over more deserving candidates.

2014

  • Nationals All-Star representative: Jordan Zimmermann (Update post-publishing: Zimmermann strained a bicep, and had to withdraw from the ASG.  For a bit it looked like the Nats wouldn’t even have a representative, until Tyler Clippard was named on 7/13/14).
  • Possible Snubs: Adam LaRoche, Anthony Rendon, Rafael Soriano, Drew Storen
  • Narrative: Zimmermann’s been the best SP on the best pitching staff in the majors this year, and thus earns his spot.  I find it somewhat odd that a first place team (or near to it) gets just one representative on the team (as discussed above).  Rendon tried to make the team via the “last man in” voting, but historically Nationals have not fared well in this competition (especially when better known players from large markets are in the competition, aka Anthony Rizzo from the Chicago Cubs), and indeed Rendon finished 4th in the last-man voting.  LaRoche is having a very good season, almost single handedly carrying the Nats offense while major parts were out injured, but he’s never going to beat out the slew of great NL first basemen (Joey Votto couldn’t even get into this game).  Soriano has quietly put together one of the best seasons of any closer in the game; at the time of this writing he has a 1.03 ERA and a .829 whip; those are Dennis Eckersley numbers.  But, the farce that is the all-star game selection criteria (having to select one player from each team) means that teams need a representative, and deserving guys like Soriano get squeezed.  Then, Soriano indignantly said he wouldn’t even go if named as a replacement … likely leading to Clippard’s replacement selection.  The same goes for non-closer Storen, who sports a sub 2.00 ERA on the year.  Advanced stats columnists (Keith Law) also think that Stephen Strasburg is a snub but I’m not entirely sure: he may lead the NL in K’s right now and have far better advanced numbers than “traditional,” but its hard to make an argument that a guy with a 7-6 record and a 3.50+ ERA is all-star worthy.

2013

  • Nationals All-Star representatives: Bryce Harper*, Jordan Zimmermann
  • Snubs: Stephen Strasburg, Ian Desmond
  • Narrative: Harper comes in 3rd in the NL outfielder voting, ahead of some big-time names, to become only the second Nationals position player elected as an All-Star starter.  He was 4th in the final pre-selection vote, so a big last minute push got him the starter spot.   Harper also becomes the first National to participate in the Home Run Derby.   Zimmermann was 12-3 heading into the game and was on mid-season Cy Young short lists in July in a breakout season.  Strasburg’s advanced stats are all better than Zimmermann’s, but his W/L record (4-6 as the ASG) means he’s not an all-star.  It also probably doesn’t help that he missed a few weeks.  Desmond loses out to Troy Tulowitzki, Everth Cabrera and Jean Segura.  Tulowitzki was having a very solid year and was a deserving elected starter, while Cabrera and Segura are both having breakout seasons.  Desmond was on the “Final vote” roster, but my vote (and most others’ I’m guessing) would be for Yasiel Puig there ([Editor Update: Desmond and Puig lost out to Freddie Freeman: I still wished that Puig finds a way onto the roster but ultimately he did not and I believe the ASG was diminished because of it).   Gio GonzalezRyan Zimmerman, and Rafael Soriano are all having solid but unspectacular years and miss out behind those having great seasons.

2012

  • Nationals All-Star representatives: Stephen StrasburgGio GonzalezIan Desmond, Bryce Harper
  • Possible Snubs: Adam LaRocheCraig Stammen
  • Narrative: The two SPs Strasburg and Gonzalez were the obvious candidates, and my personal prediction was that they’d be the only two candidates selected.  Gonzalez’ first half was a prelude to his 21-win, 3rd place Cy Young season.  The inclusion of Desmond is a surprise, but also a testament to how far he’s come as a player in 2012.  Harper was a last-minute injury replacement, but had earned his spot by virtue of his fast start as one of the youngest players in the league.  Of the “snubs,” LaRoche has had a fantastic come back season in 2012 but fared little shot against better, more well-known NL first basemen.  Stammen was our best bullpen arm, but like LaRoche fared little chance of getting selected during a year when the Nats had two deserving pitchers selected.

2011

  • Nationals All-Star representatives: Tyler Clippard
  • Possible Snubs: Danny EspinosaMichael MorseDrew StorenJordan Zimmermann
  • Narrative: While Clippard was (arguably) the Nats best and most important reliever, I think Zimmermann was a more rightful choice.  He was 10th in the league in ERA at the time of the selections and has put in a series of dominant performances.  Meanwhile Espinosa was on pace for a 28-homer season and almost a certain Rookie-of-the-Year award (though a precipitous fall-off in the 2nd half cost him any realistic shot at the ROY), and perhaps both players are just too young to be known around the league.  Lastly Morse is certainly known and he merited a spot in the “last man in” vote sponsored by MLB (though he fared little chance against popular players in this last-man-in voting).

2010

  • Nationals All-Star representatives: Matt Capps
  • Possible Snubs: Adam DunnJosh WillinghamRyan Zimmerman, Stephen Strasburg
  • Narrative: Capps was clearly deserving, having a breakout season as a closer after his off-season non-tender from the Pirates.  The 3-4-5 hitters Zimmerman-Dunn-Willingham all had dominant offensive seasons as the team improved markedly from its 103-loss season.  But perhaps the surprise non-inclusion was Strasburg, who despite only having a few starts as of the all-star break was already the talk of baseball.  I think MLB missed a great PR opportunity to name him to the team to give him the exposure that the rest of the national media expected.  But in the end, Capps was a deserving candidate and I can’t argue that our hitters did anything special enough to merit inclusion.

2009

  • Nationals All-Star representatives: Ryan Zimmerman
  • Possible Snubs: Adam Dunn
  • Narrative: The addition of Dunn and Willingham to the lineup gave Zimmerman the protection he never had, and he produced with his career-best season.  His first and deserved all-star appearance en-route to a 33 homer season.  Dunn continued his monster homer totals with little all-star recognition.

2008

  • Nationals All-Star representatives: Cristian Guzman
  • Possible Snubs: Jon Rauch
  • Narrative: The first of two “hitting rock-bottom” seasons for the team; no one really merited selection.  Zimmerman was coming off of hamate-bone surgery in November 2007 and the team was more or less awful across the board.  Rauch performed ably after Cordero went down with season-ending (and basically career-ending) shoulder surgery.   Guzman’s selection a great example of why one-per-team rules don’t make any sense.  Guzman ended up playing far longer than he deserved in the game itself by virtue of the 15-inning affair.

2007

  • Nationals All-Star representatives: Dmitri Young
  • Possible Snubs: Ryan Zimmerman, Shawn Hill (though I wouldn’t argue for either)
  • Narrative: Young gets a deserved all-star appearance en route to comeback player of the year.  Zimmerman played a full season but didn’t dominate.  Our 2007 staff gave starts to 13 different players, most of whom were out of the league within the next year or two.  Not a good team.

2006

  • Nationals All-Star representatives: Alfonso Soriano*
  • Possible Snubs: Nick JohnsonRyan Zimmerman, Chad Cordero
  • Narrative: Soriano made the team as an elected starter, the first time the Nats have had such an honor.  Our pitching staff took massive steps backwards and no starter came even close to meriting a spot.  Cordero was good but not lights out as he had been in 2005.  Soriano’s 40-40 season is a poster child for “contract year” production and he has failed to come close to such production since.  The team was poor and getting worse.  Johnson had a career year but got overshadowed by bigger, better first basemen in the league (a recurring theme for our first basemen over the years).

2005

  • Nationals All-Star representatives: Livan HernandezChad Cordero
  • Possible Snubs: Nick JohnsonJohn Patterson.
  • Narrative: The Nats went into the All Star break surprisingly in first place, having run to a 50-31 record by the halfway point.  Should a first place team have gotten more than just two representatives?  Perhaps.  But the team was filled with non-stars and played far over its head to go 50-31 (as evidenced by the reverse 31-50 record the rest of the way).

2016 Opening Day Roster surprises

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Belisle makes the team.  Photo by John McDonnell of the WP

Belisle makes the team. Photo by John McDonnell of the WP

Once the team finished up with its FA and trading business this past off-season, the eventual 2016 25-man roster seemed rather predictable (to me anyway).  For months, I figured it was safe to assume we were looking at the following configuration for 2016 (barring injury):

  • SP: Scherzer, Strasburg, Gonzalez*, Ross, Roark
  • RP: Papelbon, Treinen, Gott, Kelley, Perez*, Rivero*, Petit
  • C: Ramos, Lobaton
  • INF: Zimmerman, Murphy, Espinosa, Rendon, Drew, Robinson, Moore
  • OF: Harper, Werth, Revere, Taylor
  • 60 day DL: Barrett

Perhaps you could quibble that Tyler Moore wasn’t a lock , that he was always in competition with the slew of RH-hitting veterans brought in to camp this year (I didn’t necessarily think this once they offered him a contract for 2016).  Perhaps you could have argued that Danny Espinosa wasn’t the presumptive starter ahead of Trea Turner.  Perhaps you could argue that the team was going to do something crazy with Tanner Roark vs Bronson Arroyo. 

But towards the end of Spring Training, I was proven wrong as the team made some interesting choices to start the season.

With the final announced moves prior to opening day, here’s the 25-man roster starting out the season:

  • SP: Scherzer, Strasburg, Gonzalez*, Ross, Roark
  • RP: Papelbon, Treinen, Kelley, Belisle, Perez*, Rivero*, Petit
  • C: Ramos, Lobaton
  • INF: Zimmerman, Murphy, Espinosa, Rendon, Drew, Robinson
  • OF: Harper, Werth, Revere, Taylor, Heisey

Lets talk about the last minute announcements and the surprises:

  1. Tyler Moore waived, outrighted and then traded to Atlanta.  Probably not a huge surprise; one can argue that the only reason Moore wasn’t waived LAST spring training was thanks to the slew of injuries the team suffered.  He hasn’t been successful as a PH, he never could replicate the success he had in his rookie year, and he really could only play 1B.  The team made a conscious effort to bring in veterans to compete with him, and the likes of Scott Sizemore, Chris Heisey, Reed Johnson, Stephen Drew all out-performed Moore in one way or another.  And all those guys can play other positions besides the sedentary 1B.
  2. Chris Heisey making the team: Personally I thought Sizemore had the inside track, but he was assigned to minor league camp early.  In fact, when you look at their stats its a head scratcher: Sizemore hit .324 with a ton of power while Heisey hit just .238 but came on strong towards the end of spring training.  Moreover, Sizemore plays infield while Heisey only plays outfield … so Sizemore is presumably a more valuable player defensively.  Cynics will note that Heisey has played for Baker before.  At least Sizemore stuck with the team and accepted a minor league assignment.  Honestly I also thought the team would have considered Drew before Heisey, again for positional flexibility.
  3. Matt Belisle ‘s contract guaranteed, and he makes the team instead of off-season acquisition Trevor Gott.  By the ST numbers this move makes some  sense; Belisle’s ERA and WHIP was decent while Gott’s was respectable if not eyepopping.   Once again,  the cynic again would say this is entirely due to the options availability on Gott and Belisle’s history of playing for Baker.  I’m slightly surprised they didn’t go with 8 relievers since a 5th starter isn’t needed for a while.
  4. Espinosa over Turner: never in question for me once we hired Dusty Baker, but many pundits seem shocked that Turner is in AAA to start the season.  Scouts seem to have forgotten that Espinosa was a *better* shortstop than Ian Desmond all these years, but played 2nd base and 2nd fiddle thanks to seniority (in the same way that the superior Manny Machado played 3B instead of taking over at short for a veteran … and now is “stuck” there despite being one of the best SS prospects of his generation).
  5. Roark over Arroyo: this one solved itself early, when Arroyo tore his UCL tore his labrum tore his rotator strained his rotator cuff while Roark was throwing zeros for the spring.  I continue to be in the camp that Roark, if just left alone and given a rotation spot, will produce at a high level (just like he did in 2014).  I think his 2015 was completely an aberration, an example of how playing guys out of position ends up with sub-optimal performance (ahem, see Jurgen Klinsmann and the US Mens National Team’s ridiculous 2-0 loss to Guatemala last week in WC qualifying).

What do you guys think?  Do you think Belisle over Gott, Heisey over Sizemore or Drew (or even den Dekker), Espinosa over turner make this a better team starting out?  Or do you feel like Dusty has gotten some of his “buddies” back together and he’s valuing relationships over talent to start the season?

Better question: Will it matter?  I mean, we’re talking about the 7th man in the bullpen (who may get 1 inning the first week) and the last guy off the bench (who might get 2 or 3 low-leverage ABs the first week).  Is this making a mountain out of a mole-hill, or is it more about the principle of the issue?