Nationals Arm Race

"… the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same – pitching.” — Earl Weaver

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Nats Draft History; what were the rumors on draft day historically?

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Zimmerman was the Nats first ever pick.  Photo unknown credit via fantasyknuckleheads.com

Zimmerman was the Nats first ever pick. Photo unknown credit via fantasyknuckleheads.com

I thought I’d do a different take on the “history of Nats drafts.”  What was the mood/feel around the team approaching draft day year after year?  Who do we think they were focusing on as the big day rolled around and why?  We focus mostly on the first round pick, where so many of the mock drafts focus, but we’ll also mention significant moves further down.

To be honest, I didn’t really start closely following the draft and track who the Nats were “rumored” to be with until the 2008 draft.   So if you remember something differently than me, please feel free to chime in.  I also focus pretty heavily on the early picks here, simply because teams generally get the most value out of their 1st round picks, and the thought processes in taking the first round pick often is the focus of draft analysis and mock drafts posted head of each actual draft.

The Draft Tracker xls (created by Brian Oliver, now maintained by SpringFieldFan) is vital for any Nats fan interested in tracking the teams’ drafting history.

  • 2005: Nats picked 4th overall and did not have a 2nd or 3rd round picks (the 2nd round pick went to Colorado for the Vinny Castilla FA signing and the 3rd round pick went to Minnesota as compesation for the Cristian Guzman signing)).  The team was also under MLB control and was (presumably) given quite strict financial guidelines over signings.  Given those considerations, they knew they needed a splash with their #1 overall pick, they needed someone affordable and they needed someone that would speak to their new fan-base.  They wanted college draftees, quick to the majors.  The team was looking at the three top 3rd Basemen in the draft.  Ryan ZimmermanRyan Braun and Alex Gordon.  All three were playing at good schools with good numbers.  Gordon went 2nd overall to Kansas City and the Nats snapped up Zimmerman.  Zimmerman signed quickly for an acceptable amount ($2.9M as the 4th overall pick) and was playing in the majors by September.   Zimmerman’s selection made sense geographically (he grew up in Va Beach and attended UVA) and it made sense considering the talent available at the Nats pick.  MASN’s David Huzzard printed a retrospective of the 2005 draft ahead of 2014′s draft.
  • 2006Thanks to a couple of FA losses (Hector Carrasco and Esteban Loiaza), the team had two extra picks in the first two rounds.  The team had a roller coaster 2005; first place at mid-season and then a collapse as MLB refused to allow reinforcements.  By draft-day 2006 the team was firmly under the control of Jim Bowden, and his philosophy had always skewed towards “toolsy” players, potential over actual.   But the team didn’t have an owner yet, so were still operating under MLB’s guidelines.  These two facts were quite evident by looking at the haul the Nats had with their early picks.  6 picks in the top 4 rounds and they were all high school players.  Chris Marrero, Colten Willems, Stephen Englund, Sean Black, Stephen King and Glenn Gibson.    The team got Marrero for a relatively cheap $1.6M deal mid-way through the first round, failed to sign Black altogether, and got 5 of these 6 players to sign for around $5M all told.  The team on the field was under-performing thanks to a limited MLB-dictated budget, but Bowden was drafting for the longer run.  Unfortunately none of these high school players ever amounted to much of anything, with only Marrero ever reaching the majors and Willems retiring before ever advancing out of A-Ball.
  • 2007: The team had another haul of upper-end draft picks, thanks to their acquisition of Alfonso Soriano and his type-A free agency sending them both an extra first rounder and a supplimental first rounder.   The team took lefty Ross Detwiler from small school Missouri State with the 6th overall pick, a selection that has been lampooned based on who else was available at the time (Madison Bumgarner and Jason Heyward in particular), but literature from 2007 supports his selection at 6th overall.  After Detwiler, the nats spent their two supplimental first round picks on high school raw talents (as was Bowden’s custom), neither of which ever panned out (Josh Smoker and Michael Burgess).  This draft turned into one of the more productive in Nat history, with at least four current major leaguers picked (along with Detwiler, Stephen SouzaDerek Norris and especially 2nd round pick Jordan Zimmermann, so it is unfair to focus on the misses out of 2007.  This was easily Bowden’s best draft while in charge in Washington.
  • 2008: The year of Aaron Crow.  Crow had a strong summer and a strong spring and was the 2nd best college arm in the draft, no question.  There was apparently antagonism between Bowden and Crow’s agents from the moment that he was drafted, and the negotiations between the sides never really came together.  The signing deadline came and went with no signature, and Crow went to Indy ball before getting picked the following summer.  There was talk about how the Crow non-signing was purposeful; the Nats spent significantly less money in the draft in 2008 than they had in 2007 and the ownership group was still being labeled as “cheap.”  Either way, this lack of signing was one more bullet in the ammunition guns of opinion makers in the industry about the state of the Nationals organization under the leadership of Bowden.  This would serve to be his last draft; he was embroiled in the bonus scandal over the off-season and relinquished his job ahead of the 2009 season.
  • 2009: We all are quite familiar with the story by now; Stephen Strasburg was a laconic out-of-shape hurler in high school who barely merited a college spot, then re-made himself into the “greatest pitching prospect of all time” while at San Diego State.   Despite his reported bonus demands (he ended up with more than $15M deal) and his representation (Scott Boras), the Nats never seriously considered not selecting him with the first overall pick.  For me the big question was who the Nats were going to take at #10. I wanted another starter, and there were some significant college pitchers projected to be available at #9.  Kyle GibsonAlex White,  Tyler Maztek, Chad Jenkins and Tanner Scheppers were all left on the board to draft a Stanford reliever in Drew Storen.  Keith Law had Storen ranked as his 28th prospect, a guy who was clearly “good” but who was over-drafted by nearly 20 spots.  This had “signability pick” written all over it, a thought that was even more proven when the team drafted college senior Trevor Holder with their 3rd pick and signed him for 1/2 of slot.  Holder wasn’t even his team’s friday starter and had a 4.48 ERA.  So, the team got Strasburg and paid him significant money, and the 2008 draft misstep turned into an effective closer in Storen, so the draft wasn’t a disaster, but with a bit more money allocated (remember, this was the same year they were paying Guzman $8M to be a mediocre shortstop) the team really could have hit it out of the park.
  • 2010: After another 100+ loss season, the Nats were fortunate to have another no-brainer, consensus #1 overall pick in Bryce Harper.   But the real story of the 2010 draft was Mike Rizzo’s finally convincing the ownership group and Ted Lerner of the power of the over-slot pick.  The Nationals gave Harper a 40-man deal and a lot of guaranteed money … but they also bought two high-end high school arms out of their college commitments for 1st-2nd round money (A.J. Cole and Robbie Ray).  The Nats were quickly becoming a team that was ignoring the advice of the penurious commissioner Bud Selig, known for railing against teams and owners who ignored his “slot recommendations.”  The Lerners tried to be friends with Selig and play by the rules, only to watch other teams out-spend and out-sign them.  Remember this fact when we see the next CBA come out, assigning slot deals ahead of time and implementing draconian policies on teams that over-spend in the draft.
  • 2011: The Nats were looking at a handful of players with their #6 pick; George Springer, Sonny Gray, Taylor Jungman, Jackie Bradley, and the like.  In a pretty shocking draft-day shake-up, teams passed on former college player of the year Anthony Rendon and suddenly he fell into the Nationals’ lap.  The sliding of Rendon to the Nats was amazing; Rendon was considered a clear consensus 1-1 pick for nearly 2 seasons, and the pro track record of BA college players of the year is pretty solid.   The Nats had two extra first rounders (compensation for type-A FA Adam Dunn) and the selection of Alex Meyer with the #17 overall pick was a given; some pundits had the Nats taking him at #6 overall, so much they were enthralled with the huge right hander from Kentucky.   As with 2010, the team continued to write big checks to convince Brian GoodwinMatt Purke and Kylin Turnbull to leave school early.  The Purke pick in particular showed that the Nats were willing to spend money to get big-time players and were willing to risk the dice on injury concerns.  The Nats had no 2nd rounder (lost as compensation for Adam LaRoche but with three 1st/supp-1st rounders got plenty of cracks at top-end talent.
  • 2012:  The Nats had a mid-draft pick after their .500 record in 2011 and were focusing on arms.  By now, Rizzo’s drafting mentality has been made evident; he focuses on college players, and more specifically college arms, unless an outlier falls into his lap.  Well, the definition of a draft-day outlier fell into the Nats lap in 2012 when Lucas Giolito, a big-time prep prospect who was under consideration of being the first ever high school right handed pitcher to go 1st overall early in the process.  Giolito’s size, power and secondary offerings were the makings of a 1-1 pick, but his senior prep season was derailed by what was initially called an “elbow strain” but which turned out to really be a “small elbow ligament tear.”  Nonetheless, the Nats grabbed him, signed him for over-slot money (nearly $3M), and they had their man.  Years later, Rizzo revealed that the next guy on their draft board was St. Louis sensation Michael Wacha … a “what if” question for this team that may be asked for quite a while, given Wacha’s quick rise and overall dominance at such a young age.  The rest of the Nats draft class was entirely about saving dollars to over-pay Giolito and buy him out of his college committment (as is seen by the bonus figures and senior draftees for the rest of the first 10 rounds), and we’re already seeing the after-effects of this strategy; the team has already released 10 of its 2012 draft class after just two pro seasons, and outside of Giolito its hard to see any potential impact players out of the entire class.  The Nats may get a couple of RHP bullpen arms, but little else.
  • 2013: The team knew it didn’t have a first rounder thanks to its signing of Rafael Soriano (though to be honest, knowing that they were picking last thanks to their MLB-best record in 2012, they probably weren’t as reticent about losing that pick), and the new CBA had taken affect, meaning that the team had a very limited budget for signing players.  Their first pick wasn’t until the end of the second round, and they went with a big power college arm in Jake Johansen.  It was impossible to predict who would be available to the Nats at the 68th pick (their first pick), so the Nats draft philosophy seemed to revert to default; lots of college players, lots of college arms.  Of their first 15 selected players, just one prep player was selected (Drew Ward) and a number of their guys signed  for significantly under-slot to pay Ward and a couple of other players.
  • 2014: After a disappointing 2013 season, the team kept its first round pick in a draft that seems deep on college arms but thin in other areas (especially college hitters).  The Nats farm system, after years of drafting predominantly college arms for the past few drafts, has plenty of arms but is thin on hitters, leading some pundits to presume the Nats are looking at college bats.  But a couple of late spring elbow injuries on significant names (James Hoffman and Erick Fedde) also has other pundits thinking that the Nats will have no concerns about taking a pitcher who is known to need Tommy John surgery (given their handling of the likes of Strasburg, Solis, Zimmermann and their picking of Giolito in 2012).  Mock drafts frequently have the Nats selecting Fedde at #18.  And indeed that is who the Nats select.  A run on high-end college arms just prior to the Nats pick probably sealed their fate on taking Fedde.  They take a good balance of pitchers and hitters in the top 10 rounds, almost entirely out of the college ranks (as is their custom).  Like 2013 and 2012, they gambled on one prep player in the top 10 (this year Jakson Reetz) and bought a high-end prep prospect out of his college committment, but otherwise stayed the course drafting college players.

The following links were crucial to doing this post:

Minor League Age Appropropriateness for 2014

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Taylor Hill is one of the younger hurlers in AAA.  Photo via milb.com/Potomac Nats official

Taylor Hill is one of the younger hurlers in AAA. Photo via milb.com/Potomac Nats official

Age Appropriateness by minor league level is a topic I come back to year after year.  Click here for this analysis in 2011, and then here for the same analysis for 2013 (I must have been really busy in April of 2012 to have missed out on such fun analysis).

I won’t repeat a ton of the build-up to this topic; see last year’s post for a ton of rule-of-thumb discussions and what not.  Basically the point of this post is to talk about the average/median ages of pitchers in the various full season minor league levels, then take a look at our four full-season affiliate rosters to see how our guys rank.  I’m very much of the belief that age matters in prospects, and that it should be taken into consideration when looking at a guy’s performance.

Data Taxonomy: I’ve taken every pitcher on every team’s roster in each of the four leagues that the Nats have farm teams in (AAA = International, AA = Eastern, High-A = Carolina, Low-A = South Atlantic), put them into a spreadsheet, calculated their ages at the end of this season (9/1/14) and then calculated the four quartile figures in terms of age.  I only used pitchers in our leagues as opposed to the entire level across all of baseball thinking that different leagues may have different needs (I’m thinking how the California League and the Pacific Coast League has so many hitters parks and thus the pitchers may linger there longer, skewing the numbers).  I also standardized the numbers to be at the end of the season as opposed to the beginning, so that people can talk about a player’s “Age 25 season” for example.   I’ve labeled the four quartiles as follows: “Really Young” means the lowest quartile or youngest 25% of players, “Young” means the 2nd quartile or 25-50%, “Old” means the 3rd quartile or 50-75% range, and “Really Old” means anyone in the 75th quartile or above for the league.

(Click here for the whole worksheet of player data I used to do this post on Google Docs).


First, a look at how these age rankings have fared over the past few years:

Age Appropriate Matrix 2011-2014

2011 AAA AA High-A Low-A
Really Young 25.54 or younger 24.44 or  younger 22.65 or younger 21.88 or younger
Young 25.54 – 26.93 24.44 – 25.37 22.65 – 23.83 21.88 – 22.84
Old 26.93 – 28.79 25.37 – 26.65 23.83 – 24.77 22.84 – 23.65
Really Old 28.79 or older 26.65 or older 24.77 or older 23.65 or older
2013 AAA AA High-A Low-A
Really Young 25.91 or younger 24.02 or younger 23.08 or younger 21.69 or younger
Young 25.92 – 27.75 24.02 – 25.17 23.08 – 24.00 21.69 – 22.66
Old 27.75 – 30.35 25.17 – 26.84 24.00 – 24.91 22.66 – 23.39
Really Old 30.35 or older 26.84 or older 24.91 or older 23.39 or older
2014 AAA AA High-A Low-A
Really Young 25.85 or younger 24.13 or younger 22.74 or younger 21.84 or younger
Young 25.86 – 27.47 24.14 – 25.27 22-74 – 23.63 21.84 – 22.65
Old 27.47 – 29.58 25.27 – 26.77 23.63 – 24.53 22.65 – 23.69
Really Old 29.58 or older 26.78 or older 24.53 or older 23.70  or older

At a  high level:

  • AAA’s median age has risen from 2011, but 2014′s teams are getting slightly younger; all these threshold ages are slightly below 2013′s numbers.
  • AA is more or less the same; the median age only differs by 1/10th of a year from last year
  • High A: is getting younger; its threshold ages are all about a half a year or more younger this year
  • Low A seems about the same; its median age is identical to last year’s.

Here’s a look at the Nationals’ four full season minor league pitching staffs, with the ages listed and the “age appropriate” label given.   All rosters are as of 4/18/14.

AAA Syracuse

Team First Name Last Name DOB Age as of 9/1/14 Age Status
Syracuse (Wash) Aaron Barrett 1/2/1988 26.66 Young
Syracuse (Wash) Xavier Cedeno 8/26/1986 28.02 Old
Syracuse (Wash) Manny Delcarmen 2/16/1982 32.54 Really Old
Syracuse (Wash) Christian Garcia 8/24/1985 29.02 Old
Syracuse (Wash) Taylor Hill 3/12/1989 25.47 Really Young
Syracuse (Wash) Aaron Laffey 4/15/1985 29.38 Old
Syracuse (Wash) Warner Madrigal 3/21/1984 30.45 Really Old
Syracuse (Wash) Ryan Mattheus 11/10/1983 30.81 Really Old
Syracuse (Wash) Brad Meyers 9/13/1985 28.97 Old
Syracuse (Wash) Omar Poveda 9/28/1987 26.93 Young
Syracuse (Wash) Tyler Robertson 12/23/1987 26.69 Young
Syracuse (Wash) Josh Roenicke 8/4/1982 32.08 Really Old
Syracuse (Wash) Danny Rosenbaum 10/10/1987 26.89 Young
Syracuse (Wash) Daniel Stange 12/22/1985 28.69 Old
Syracuse (Wash) Ryan Tatusko 3/27/1985 29.43 Old

Discussion: Even by AAA standards as a “spare parts” league, our AAA squad is pretty old.  We have four guys in their 30s, only one of which is on our 40-man roster (Ryan Mattheus).  Our youngest guy in AAA may also be the most surprising pitcher to make this squad; Taylor Hill.  This squad will just get older once Michael Gonzalez makes his way to upstate New York (which has already happened inbetween the time of this data capture and the time of this post).

Oldest Guy in the International League: Fairfax’s own Shawn Camp, a 10 year MLB veteran who signed on with Philly as a MLFA last off-season and looks like he may be back and forth between Lehigh Valley and Philadelphia all year.  Also amongst the old crowd in the International league are interesting names from the past, including Johan Santana, and a few former Nats in Luis Ayala, Chien-Ming Wang and Yunesky Maya (who signed on with Atlanta for 2014).

Youngest Guy in the International League: Former Nat Robbie Ray, who will not turn 23 until after season’s end.  Side note on Ray: i was listening to a Jonah Keri podcast where a guest was openly questioning the Doug Fister trade, now that Fister’s out with an injury and Ray’s fast tracking his way to a very early majors appointment.  Nothing nefarious suggested (as in, the Tigers knew that Fister was damaged goods), but he also said he was at about a “0%” surprise factor when Fister got hurt this spring.  Interesting.  

A couple of other very young guys in this league include some big-time pitching prospects: Marcus Strohman for Toronto, Trevor Bauer for Cleveland and Kevin Gausman for Baltimore.

Percentage of International League pitchers on MLB 40-man rosters: 36.95%, quite a bit higher than last year.  Four of Syracuse’ 15 pitchers are on the 40-man and two of them (Aaron Barrett and Xavier Cedeno) have already made the trips up and back to and from the majors this month.  Of course, the Nats have already shuffled around these two and Blake Treinen quite a bit and its just a few weeks into the season.


AA Harrisburg

Team First Name Last Name DOB Age as of 9/1/14 Age Status
Harrisburg (Wash) Gabriel Alfaro 6/14/1983 31.22 Really Old
Harrisburg (Wash) Colin Bates 3/10/1988 26.48 Old
Harrisburg (Wash) A.J. Cole 1/5/1992 22.66 Really Young
Harrisburg (Wash) Paul Demny 8/3/1989 25.08 Young
Harrisburg (Wash) Robert Gilliam 11/29/1987 26.76 Old
Harrisburg (Wash) Matt Grace 12/14/1988 25.71 Old
Harrisburg (Wash) Tyler Herron 8/5/1986 28.07 Really Old
Harrisburg (Wash) Neil Holland 8/14/1988 26.05 Old
Harrisburg (Wash) Zach Jackson 5/13/1983 31.30 Really Old
Harrisburg (Wash) Pat Lehman 10/18/1986 27.87 Really Old
Harrisburg (Wash) Rafael Martin 5/16/1984 30.29 Really Old
Harrisburg (Wash) Richie Mirowski 4/30/1989 25.34 Old
Harrisburg (Wash) Ryan Perry 2/13/1987 27.55 Really Old
Harrisburg (Wash) Matt Purke 7/17/1990 24.13 Really Young
Harrisburg (Wash) Felipe Rivero 7/5/1991 23.16 Really Young
Harrisburg (Wash) Blake Schwartz 10/9/1989 24.90 Young
Harrisburg (Wash) Sammy Solis 8/10/1988 26.06 Old

Discussion: As with Syracuse, our Harrisburg squad is very old; 12 of the 17 pitchers on the squad are above the median age for the league, and 6 of them are in the oldest quartile.  Our three youngest hurlers are (arguably) our three most important arms in AA: A.J. Cole, Felipe Rivero and Matt Purke (with apologies to Sammy Solis, who lists as an “older” guy thanks to his losing a year to TJ surgery).  It seems to me like Harrisburg is populated with hangers-on; that the bullpen is filled with org arms.

Oldest Guy in the Eastern League: Minnesota’s Matt Guerrier, who was traded in the final year of his contract last summer but couldn’t find a 40-man job and signed back on with the team he spent the early part of his career with.  His placement in AA was temporary; he’s already back with AAA.  Ironically the 2nd oldest player in the Eastern league is also on Minnesota’s team: Virgil Vasquez, who is in his 12th pro season with just a handful of major league appearances over that time and who came back into affiliated ball after two seasons of indy league.

Youngest Guy in the Eastern League: San Francisco’s Adalberto Mejia, a lefty starter prospect who jumped straight from the DSL to low-A and has climbed steadily since.  Interestingly, the six youngest players in the league all play for either the San Francisco or Baltimore franchises, including Zach Davies and Dylan Bundy for Bowie.

Percentage of Eastern League pitchers on MLB 40-man rosters: just 5.33% (9 of 169), down from last year’s 8.24%.  Interestingly 3 of those total of 9 are Nats farmhands, including one of the last remnants of the now-extinct draft-day MLB deal in Purke.


High-A Potomac

Team First Name Last Name DOB Age as of 9/1/14 Age Status
Potomac (Wash) Dakota Bacus 4/2/1991 23.42 Young
Potomac (Wash) Robert Benincasa 9/5/1990 23.99 Old
Potomac (Wash) Ian Dickson 9/16/1990 23.96 Old
Potomac (Wash) Brian Dupra 12/15/1988 25.71 Really Old
Potomac (Wash) Pedro Encarnacion 6/26/1991 23.18 Young
Potomac (Wash) Bryan Harper 12/29/1989 24.67 Really Old
Potomac (Wash) Travis Henke 7/9/1988 26.15 Really Old
Potomac (Wash) Nick Lee 1/13/1991 23.63 Young
Potomac (Wash) Gilberto Mendez 11/17/1992 21.79 Really Young
Potomac (Wash) Brett Mooneyham 1/24/1990 24.60 Really Old
Potomac (Wash) Ronald Pena 9/19/1991 22.95 Young
Potomac (Wash) Brian Rauh 7/23/1991 23.11 Young
Potomac (Wash) Derek Self 1/14/1990 24.63 Really Old

Discussion: Do you sense a trend?  Five of Potomac’s 13 arms are “Really Old” for the league.  Thankfully four of our 5 starters here are “young” for the league right now.  The only exception is Brett Mooneyham, who is now “really old” for high-A and yet is still scuffling along.

Oldest Guy in the Carolina League: Baltimore’s Eunchul Choi, a 30-yr old South Korean pitcher who Baltimore signed as a MLFA three off-seasons ago and who apparently has yet to throw a professional inning.

Youngest Guy in the Carolina League: Atlanta’s Lucas Sims, who (no surprise) was the youngest player in the South Atlantic league when we did this analysis last year.  All he did in 2013 was go 12-4 with 134 K’s in 116 innings as the youngest guy in the league.  It looks like Atlanta may have yet another young, big-time arm in its rotation in a couple of years.

Percentage of Carolina League pitchers on MLB 40-man rosters: 0%.  Now that teams are prevented from signing draftees to MLB deals, the odds of ever seeing a non-rehabbing 40-man player below AA seem to be slim.


Low-A Hagerstown

Team First Name Last Name DOB Age as of 9/1/14 Age Status
Hagerstown (Wash) Dixon Anderson 7/2/1989 25.17 Really Old
Hagerstown (Wash) Andrew Cooper 6/27/1992 22.18 Young
Hagerstown (Wash) Cody Davis 7/21/1990 24.11 Really Old
Hagerstown (Wash) Wirkin Estevez 3/15/1992 22.46 Young
Hagerstown (Wash) Lucas Giolito 7/14/1994 20.13 Really Young
Hagerstown (Wash) L.J. Hollins 7/31/1991 23.09 Old
Hagerstown (Wash) Jake Johansen 1/23/1991 23.61 Old
Hagerstown (Wash) Nick Pivetta 2/14/1993 21.54 Really Young
Hagerstown (Wash) Hector Silvestre 12/14/1992 21.71 Really Young
Hagerstown (Wash) John Simms 1/17/1992 22.62 Young
Hagerstown (Wash) Matthew Spann 2/17/1991 23.54 Old
Hagerstown (Wash) Wander Suero 9/15/1991 22.96 Old
Hagerstown (Wash) Justin Thomas 10/21/1990 23.86 Really Old
Hagerstown (Wash) Kylin Turnbull 9/12/1989 24.97 Really Old
Hagerstown (Wash) Ryan Ullmann 8/12/1991 23.06 Old
Hagerstown (Wash) Austin Voth 6/26/1992 22.18 Young
Hagerstown (Wash) Jake Walsh 1/1/1991 23.67 Old

Discussion: Hagerstown’s squad isn’t quite as “old” as I thought it’d be, thanks to a couple of really young starters being on the squad (Lucas Giolito and  Nick Pivetta).  But, the team also has two of the 10 oldest players in the league in Dixon Anderson and Kylin Turnbull.  Anderson can be excused somewhat, since he lost time to injury, but he also is repeating low-A and should have been on Potomac’s squad (in this humble opinion).  Maybe he will be soon thanks to the spate of injuries in Potomac.  Meanwhile Turnbull looks like he may be a draft bust; he hasn’t been able to perform above low-A despite his draft-day pedigree.

Oldest Guy in the South Atlantic League: New  York’s Conor Mullee, who hails from Ashburn, attended Broad Run HS and was plucked out of a small college (St. Peters University).  But interesting he was a hitter in college and then immediately switched to pitching.  He blew out his arm and missed all of 2011 after TJ surgery … then missed all of 2013 as well.  He currently sits on Charleston’s 7-day D/L as the oldest guy in the league by 6 months.

Youngest Guy in the South Atlantic League: Texas’ Akeem Bostick, a 2nd round pick in 2013 out of a South Carolina high school who more than held his own in the Arizona rookie league.  Also amongst the youngsters in the Sally league are Baltimore’s big-time prospect Hunter Harvey and our own Giolito.

Percentage of South Atlantic League pitchers on MLB 40-man rosters: 0%.


Conclusion:

I think its safe to say that the Nats draft strategy of focusing primarily on college-age arms is starting to be seen; our pitching squads are filled with “older” guys.  But interestingly these older arms seem to mostly be in the bullpens, while our starting corps are by and large filled with “younger” arms relative to their league-wide colleagues.

 

Hagerstown/Low-A Pitching Staff Year in Review; 2013

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Pedro Encarnacion was the staff leader for Hagerstown in 2013.  Photo via flickr.

Pedro Encarnacion was the staff leader for Hagerstown in 2013. Photo via flickr.

This is the 5th in the 2013 Pitching staff review series, here’s a review of Hagerstown/Low-A’s pitching staff for 2013.  Other parts of the 2013 series:

For some historical perspective, here’s 2012′s version (Aaron Barrett was the feature pitcher) and 2011′s version (Taylor Jordan the feature pitcher) of this post specifically for Hagerstown/Low-A.

All stats are courtesy of either milb.com’s Hagerstown 2013 Stats page or via Fangraph’s Hagerstown 2013 page.   Also useful here are the Big Board and the Nats Draft Tracker since so many of these lower-minors guys are recent draftees.

Hagerstown starters.  The rotation started the season with Anderson, Mooneyham, Pineyro, Pena and Encarnacion.  It ended with Turnbull, Encarnacion, Bacus, Voth, and Johansen (with Dickson in the rotation most of the last half of the season as well).  There were quite a few changes along the way; I counted 8 pitcher promotions throughout the year, including 6 starters.  Lets take a look at the High-A starters for 2013, starting with the original five and then counting down by the number of starts.

  • Dixon Anderson got the ball opening day and threw 15 decent starts for the Suns, even making the all-star team.  He started to struggle in June, hit the D/L at the end of that month and never re-appeared.  As you might imagine, its hard to find out injury news for guys in the low minors, so the extent of his injury is unknown to me at this time.  Which makes it kind of hard to predict where he’ll be next year.  He had good component ratios and was a college draftee from a good baseball school, so you’d think he’s ready to move up.  Outlook for next season: High-A rotation if he’s healthy.
  • Brett Mooneyham absolutely dominated low-A ball, posting a 1.94 ERA and going 10-3 in 93 innings before mercifully being pushed to Potomac.  And this comes as no surprise; a 3rd round pick from a Pac-12 baseball power should dominate a bunch of kids 2 years his junior.  I’m not sure what was left to prove in Hagerstown, especially when it became clear he was overpowering the league.  To be fair, he did have a 6 week D/L stint that factored in; but once he came back and dominated towards the end of June he should have been pushed up.  Outlook for next season: High-A rotation.
  • Ivan Pineyro threw 13 good starts for Hagerstown, was promoted, then got 3 starts in High-A before he was flipped for Scott Hairston.   Outlook for next season: in the Chicago Cubs organization.
  • Ronald Pena started in the rotation for Hagerstown, then was pushed to the bullpen to become the long-man by June.  He ended the season with decent enough numbers: 4-3 with a 3.48 ERA in 28 appearances (10 starts).  His component ratios weren’t that great: 55/34 K/BB in 88 innings, but he did give the Suns a great playoff stint in long relief.  Where does a guy like this go from here?  Outlook for next season: high-A bullpen in a similar long-relief/spot starter role.
  • Pedro Encarnacion was the staff leader for Hagerstown this year, leading the team in starts, wins (technically tied with Mooneyham), innings pitched and K’s.   The DSL graduate posted a 10-9 W/L record with 113/37 K/BB in 128 innings.   He had a 1.19 whip on the year, and his FIP (3.50) flattered his ERA (3.58).   Encarnacion right now represents the most accomplished DSL graduate in the entire system (when speaking of pitchers anyway), perhaps the best DSL pitching prospect we’ve had the entire time the team has been in Washington (who is more accomplished?  Atahualpa Severino?), and I see no reason for him not to keep climbing the ranks next year.    Outlook for next season: High-A rotation.
  • Nick Lee joined up with Hagerstown in mid May and gave the team 17 decent starts before hitting the D/L to make way for new acquisition Dakota Bacus in August (more on him later).   He had impressive K rates (102 strikeouts in 91 innings) and a FIP (3.54) that flattered his ERA (3.95).   He had a number of sparkling outings interspersed with a couple of failures, but for the most part was consistent this year.  Outlook for next season: High-A rotation competition, possibly dropping back to Low-A if the numbers game doesn’t work out (he’s young; he’s still 22).
  • Kylin Turnbull lasted just three high-A starts, giving up 10 runs in 17 innings and was demoted to low-A.  Repeating Hagerstown, he was again poor, putting in just 5 mediocre-to-bad starts before being sent to XST, where he toiled for a few weeks before joining up with Auburn to start the short-season.  He pitched to a 1.96 ERA in four short-A starts and earned a promotion back to Hagerstown, where he finally settled down and finished out the year.  Unfortunately he laid an egg in the playoffs, but a lot of our guys did.  On the whole in Hagerstown for the year, he performed ably; a 3.58 ERA in 16 starts.    Outlook for next season: Attempting High-A’s rotation again, but i’m wondering if he’s cut out to start.  Despite his draft pedigree (4th rounder in 2011) he may be eventually bound for the bullpen as a lefty specialist.
  • Ian Dickson was acquired in early June from the Cubs when the Nats finally DFA’d Henry Rodriguez.  I define this transaction as “getting something for nothing.”  Dickson joined the Suns bullpen, showed his big arm, then was mostly a starter for the rest of the season.  All in all for the Suns he had 16 appearances (10 starts) and posted a 4.39 ERA with more than a K/inning.  Meanwhile his K/BB ratio was fantastic for such a strikeout guy (71/17 in 65 2/3 innings for the Suns this year).  Is he a starter?  Outlook for next season: High-A swingman/spot-starter.
  • Matt Purke over-matched low-A in 6 starts (posting 41 K’s in 29 innings) and was pushed to Potomac in early July.  See the high-A writeup for more. Outlook for next season: High-A rotation.
  • Others who got just 1-2 starts for Hagerstown:
    • Austin Voth is an exciting 2013 draftee who blew through both short season teams to end up in the low-A rotation and get the opening playoff start.  See the short-A writeup for more.
    • Jake Johansen is, as we all know, the Nats top draft pick from 2013.  He (like Voth) pushed his way to low-A this season.   See the short-A writeup for more.
    • Dakota Bacus came to the team in late August in trade for Kurt Suzuki; he spent most of the year in Oakland’s low-A team and performed ably.  He posted a 3.65 ERA in 121 innings but showed a bit of a wild streak.   Outlook for next season: High-A rotation competition.
    • Blake Schwartz blitzed through 4 starts in low-A and was quickly promoted to Potomac.  See the high-A write-up for more.  Outlook for next season: AA rotation.
    • Brian Dupra earned two promotions on the season to end up in Potomac’s bullpen.  See the high-A write-up for more. Outlook for next season: High-A bullpen competition, possible release.
    • Reynaldo Lopez gave Hagerstown a spot start, getting called up from Auburn.  See Short-A write-up for more.
    • Ryan Mattheus got a rehab “start.”  See MLB write-up for more.

Hagerstown relievers.  We’ll start with the closers and work backwards by IP from there.  I will say this; when considering the future of middle relievers in low-A ball, everything is a crap shoot.  Most of these guys are already “org guys” before they’ve even really started their careers and its really difficult to project where they may go.   Unfortunately, lots of these guys may end up being post spring-training releases to make way for the newer crop of draftees.

  • Robert Benincasa led the Suns in saves despite being promoted mid-season.  See the high-A write-up for more.   Outlook for next season: AA/High-A bullpen.
  • Gilberto Mendez dominated low-A this season, arriving in June, posting a 0.91 ERA and striking out 33 in 29 2/3 innings while earning 7 saves.   No reason to think the 2011 DR signing isn’t moving on up.  I like this guy; so far he’s pitched pretty well at every level he’s hit.   Outlook for next season: High-A bullpen, possibly the closer if Benincasa is in AA.
  • Derek Self couldn’t make the leap to High-A, and spent most of the season in Hagerstown.  He posted decent numbers in low-A:  a 3.41 ERA in 31 2/3 innings pitching mostly towards the back of the bullpen.   Outlook for next season: trying the high-A bullpen again, possibly falling back to the low-A bullpen.
  • Travis Henke toiled most of the season in Hagerstown and got a late-season promotion.  In Low-A he posted a 2.72 ERA in nearly 60 innings of mostly longer relief.  He’s yet another decent find out of a small college (Arkansas – Little Rock) for the Nats scouting department. Outlook for next season: high-A bullpen.
  • Bryan Harper earned his keep in low-A this year, posting a 3.97 ERA in 45 innings.  He’s got to work on his control though; 32 walks in those 45 innings completely counter balance his nice K/9 ratio.  Outlook for next season: high-A bullpen competition as the matchup-lefty.
  • Cody Davis continued to pitch extremely well for an undrafted free agent signing, succeeding in his third straight season and third straight promotion.  For Hagerstown in 2013; a 2.76 ERA in 42 innings, more than a K/inning, nearly a 4/1 K/BB ratio and an even better FIP (2.33) than his ERA.  He’s clearly earned a shot at the next level.   Outlook for next season: High-A bullpen.
  • Brian Rauh started the year in Hagerstown’s bullpen as an 8th inning guy, didn’t really pitch that well but was pushed up to Potomac anyway.  See the high-A write-up for more.  Outlook for next season: High-A bullpen, perhaps a starter.  Perhaps a release candidate.
  • Christian Meza lasted about 5 weeks in Potomac, putting up a 6.62 ERA and greater than a 2.00 whip before getting demoted back to Hagerstown.  For Hagerstown he was better but still not great; a 4.00 ERA over 31 innings.  To be fair, his K rate was excellent and his FIP in such a short sample size was decent, but giving up 2 base runners an inning as a reliever is a no-no.  He’s entering his 5th pro season and has thus far been unable to succeed above low-A ball; he may face a do-or-die spring training in 2014.   He is a lefty though, and the lower parts of the system seem to lack lefty matchup guys, so this could be a saving grace.  Outlook for next season: trying the high-A bullpen again, possible release candidate.
  • David Fischer started the year in Hagerstown but was quickly bumped up to Potomac, where he served as a long-man out of the pen.  See the high-A write-up for more.  Outlook for next season: High-A bullpen.
  • Will Hudgins started the year in Hagerstown’s bullpen, was demoted to Auburn, and abruptly retired in July.   Odd in my opinion; his stats didn’t look that bad.  Outlook for next season: out of baseball.
  • Other relievers who didn’t get enough innings to really pass much judgement:
    • Justin Thomas bounced around the system in his first pro year, pitching at 4 different levels.  He only threw a grand total of 22 innings on the year so its hard to pass too much judgement.  He was a college senior draftee so you’d have to think he’s better suited for full-season ball in 2014.  Outlook for next season: High-A bullpen competition.
    • Chris McKenzie threw 12 innings of 5.25 ERA ball and was released, ending a 4 year tenure in the organization.  
    • Jason Smith got lit up in 7+ innings and was released.
    • Corey Bafidis stopped in to Hagerstown for two appearances before heading to Auburn.  See the short-A write-up.
    • Leonard Hollins had one appearance in low-A, got sent back to XST and spent the season in Auburn.    See the short-A write-up.
    • Jake Walsh had 1 IP during a brief callup in August, then joined the Suns for the playoffs.  See the GCL write-up for more.

Summary

The Suns were the first half champs on the backs of good (if over-aged) starting pitching.  It is what it is; the Nationals are drafting older players, focusing on college guys, and its just natural that our low-A team is going to trend older.   Based on what I see here, there’s going to be quite a competition for the High-A spots in 2014.  There’s going to be more guys than spots, both in the rotation and in the bullpen.

A lot of the names who featured for the Suns in the playoffs may very well be back to start 2014, giving the team an excellent chance of repeating as first half champs in 2014.

Potomac/High-A Pitching Staff Year in Review; 2013

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Taylor Jordan's phenomenal rise from A-ball to the majors is this year's high-A story of the year.  Photo via wffn.net/hueytaxi on flikr.com

Taylor Jordan’s phenomenal rise from A-ball to the majors is this year’s high-A story of the year. Photo via wffn.net/hueytaxi on flikr.com

This is the 4th in the 2013 Pitching staff review series, here’s a review of Potomac/High-A’s pitching staff for 2013.  Other parts of the 2013 series:

For some historical perspective, here’s 2012′s version (Nathan Karns the feature pitcher) and 2011′s version (Danny Rosenbaum the feature pitcher) of this post specifically for Potomac/High-A.

All stats are courtesy of either milb.com’s Potomac 2013 Stats page or via Fangraph’s Potomac 2013 page.   Also useful here are the Big Board and the Nats Draft Tracker since so many of these lower-minors guys are recent draftees.

Note: from here on down, there’s more than a few examples of small sample sizes.  Plus, I know many readers here were frequent Potomac game attendees and may have different/better opinions than I.  Please comment if you disagree with the sentiments here.

Potomac starters.  The rotation started the season with Ray, Jordan, Cole, Turnbull and Hill.  It ended with Purke, Demny, Mooneyham, Solis and Schwartz.   There were quite a few changes along the way; I counted 9 promotions throughout the year.  Lets take a look at the High-A starters for 2013, starting with the original five and then counting down by the number of starts.  Because there were so many promotions, we’ll be referring to the AA and MLB posts frequently here for more detail.

  • Robbie Ray got the ball opening day and never looked back: he dominated high-A in the first half of the season (10.71 K/9 in 16 High-A starts) and continued the great work as one of the youngest starters in all of AA by the time the season was over.  See the AA-writeup for more. Outlook for next season: in the Detroit organization.
  • Taylor Jordan gave up just 5 earned runs in his first 6 Potomac starts of the year, quickly earning him a promotion to AA.  We all know the story from here; he blew up AA and then gave the MLB team 9 good starts before hitting his post TJ surgery innings limit.  See AA’s and the MLB post for more detail.   Outlook for next season: AAA rotation.
  • A. J. Cole made his triumphant return to the Nats organization, escaping his hellish 2012 season in the California League by coming back to Washington as bounty for Michael Morse.  Cole threw about 100 innings in High-A across 18 starts and was 6-3 with a 4.25 ERA.  His FIP was considerably better and he averaged more than a K/inning, and the team pushed him to AA as a 21 year old.  See AA’s post for more.  Outlook for next season: AA rotation to start, looking for a mid-season promotion to AAA.
  • Kylin Turnbull lasted just three high-A starts, giving up 10 runs in 17 innings and was demoted to low-A.  See low-A’s post for more.   Outlook for next season: Attempting High-A’s rotation again.
  • Taylor Hill threw 84 innings of sub 3.00 ball across 14 starts in Potomac, earning a promotion to AA mid-season.  See AA’s write-up for more.  Outlook for next season: AA rotation.
  • Blake Schwartz blitzed through 4 starts in low-A and was quickly promoted to Potomac, where he led the staff in starts, wins and innings.  He finished the year with an 11-4 record with a 2.65 ERA in 132 innings.  His ERA was a bit masked by a low BABIP, resulting in a FIP that was a point higher.  He had a nice 4/1 K/BB ratio, a relatively small WHIP, and a decent enough K/9 rate.  Another excellent small college find by the Nats scouting staff.  Outlook for next season: You have to think he’s in the AA rotation; what more does he have to prove in high-A?
  • Sammy Solis made it back from Tommy John and gave Potomac 57 innings over 13 apperances with a decent 3.43 ERA.   He did miss some time mid-season but came back pretty strong.  He was also the P-Nats’ #1 starter in the playoffs, giving them one great and one not-so-great start in the post season.   Solis was added to the 40-man ahead of the Rule-5 draft by virtue of his being eligible; now there’s talk about him possibly featuring as a lefty-matchup guy at the major league level.   I can see that eventually, but not from the start of the 2014 season.  I can see Solis going to AA to get some reps against better hitters and possibly covering for injuries/need later this year.  Outlook for next season: AA rotation for now.
  • Brian Rauh started the year in Hagerstown’s bullpen as an 8th inning guy, didn’t really pitch that well but was pushed up to Potomac anyway, where he suddenly slotted in as a starter and ended up giving the team 12 starts over 16 appearances with a 4.22 ERA (4.81 FIP) over 64 innings.  He made way in the rotation late in the season for Brett Mooneyham and worked out of the pen again for the playoffs.   Outlook for next season: High-A bullpen, perhaps a starter.  Perhaps a release candidate.
  • Matt Purke finally looked healthy after years of shoulder issues.  He over matched low-A and was pushed to Potomac in early July.  In 12 starts he was 5-3 with a 4.43 ERA, 1.39 whip, and 3.58 FIP.  He got the ball in the ghird playoff game and pitched decently enough.  What concerns me is his lack of dominance of A-ball hitters; he sported just a 6.05 K/9 rate as a starter in High-A this year.  This from a former first round pick, a dominant lefty who was undefeated as a freshman in college in a good baseball conference.   What are we to make of him at this point?  On the bright side, he’s only 22 and still has a couple of option years left, so the Nats have some time to see what they have (unlike, say with Solis, who is 25 and needs to show something like right now).  Outlook for next season: High-A starter once again, looking for a quick promotion to AA.
  • Paul Demny couldn’t make the jump to AA as a starter, and was demoted back to Potomac mid-season.  He ended the season in Potomac’s rotation but (likely out of respect for what the Potomac guys accomplished this year) did not participate in the High-A playoffs.  In 8 Potomac starts, he was 2-2 with a 3.69 ERA with about a K/inning, which he should have done considering that he’s in his 6th pro season.   See the AA post for more.  Outlook for next season: AA bullpen.
  • Brett Mooneyham pitched most of the year in Hagerstown before a late-season bump up to Potomac, where he promptly got shelled.  See the low-A post for more.   Outlook for next season: High-A rotation.
  • Other guys who got spot starts here and there:
    • Ivan Pineyro got 3 starts in High-A before he was flipped for Scott Hairston.  See the low-A post for more. (Editor’s note: corrected for the right Hairston thanks to John C comment).
    • Brian Dupra got a few spot-starts; see the reliever section.
    • Marcos Frias posted a 7.59 ERA in two starts and a few relief appearances and was released 7/24/13.   See the AA post for more.
    • Rob Gilliam made two forgettable starts in High-A before getting pushed up to AA.  See the AA post for more.
    • Hector Sylvestre got called up from the rookie league to make one spot start.  See GCL post for more.
    • Ross Detwiler and Ross Ohlendorf both made one rehab start for Potomac.  See MLB post for more.

Potomac Relievers: taking a look at the relief corps.  We’ll organize relievers by looking at closers first, then by innings pitched.

  • Robert Benincasa earned 17 saves in 25 apperances for Potomac to lead the team in saves.  He earned his promotion after starting the season as Hagerstown’s closer.  His numbers on the year: 34/9 K/BB in 30 innings, 3.30 ERA, 1.23 whip, 2.80 fip.  His performance earned him a placement in the Arizona Fall League, where he posted a 4.00 ERA in 9 innings of work.  Outlook for next season: Depending on the numbers, I could see him in the AA bullpen or beginning in High-A with a look for a quick promotion.
  • Richie Mirowski dominated to the tune of a 1.50 ERA across 48 high-A innings and earned his promotion.  See the AA post for more.  Outlook for next season: AA bullpen again, looking to force another promotion.
  • Rob Wort started the season in AA, struggled, missed 5 weeks with an injury, but then settled in as a back-of-the-bullpen guy for Potomac.  In 34 innings he posted a 3.71 ERA but more impressively had a 48/29 K/BB ratio.  Well, ok, the 29 walks in 34 innings wasn’t that impressive, but the 48 Ks was.  Unfortunately for Wort, this is the FOURTH season in a row he’s been in Potomac.   He had absolutely fantastic numbers in 2012 but couldn’t back them up.  It may be safe to say he’s hit his limit organizationally.   Outlook for next season: Another shot at AA bullpen but may end up back in High-A.
  • Greg  Holt put up solid numbers as a middle reliever for Potomac, leading the bullpen in innings while going 9-0 with a 3.71 ERA in 70+ innings.  I’m concerned with his 55/33 K/BB ratio in those 70 innings; that just seems like too many walks and not enough K’s.  He’s progressed each of his three pro seasons; will he keep moving on up to AA for 2014?  Outlook for next season: Possibly in AA’s bullpen, more likely back as high-A middle reliever.
  • Colin Bates had a really nice season for Potomac this year, posting nearly a 6-1 K/BB ratio while still striking out nearly 7 guys per 9 innings pitched.  He posted a 2.61 ERA over 62 innings pitched, his second straight season advancing a level and posting a sub 3.00 ERA in the bullpen.    Outlook for next season: AA bullpen.
  • Brian Dupra earned two promotions on the season to end up in Potomac’s bullpen, where he put up pedestrian numbers (1-7, 4.96 ERA, 1.49 whip).  A college senior draftee with very little bonus money investment, Dupra’s usefulness to the organization may be at a limit.  Outlook for next season: High-A bullpen competition, possible release.
  • David Fischer started the year in Hagerstown but was quickly bumped up to Potomac, where he served as a long-man out of the pen.  He hit the D/L in mid August and never returned.  On the year his numbers were pedestrian; 4.30 ERA in 44 innings.  He did maintain a great K/9 rate (10.84).  But Fischer’s problem is the same as his fellow low-bonus/college senior draftees currently toiling in A-ball; its move up or ship out.  Outlook for next season: High-A bullpen.
  • Matt Grace threw 28 innings of quality relief and was bumped up to AA.  See the AA write-up for more.  Outlook for next season: AA bullpen to continue as the lefty matchup guy.
  • Rafael Martin didn’t make his first appearance until July, and when he got to Potomac he was great; a 1.04 ERA in 26 innings.  As well he should; two years ago he was a closer in AA and posted a 1.77 era.  What is he doing in A-Ball?  The Mexican league free agent signing in 2009 seems like he should be back in AA, where he’s shown he can compete in the past.  Outlook for next season: AA bullpen.
  • Derek Self couldn’t make the leap to High-A, getting demoted to Hagerstown after putting up a 6 ERA in 29 innings.  See the low-A post for more.   Outlook for next season: trying the high-A bullpen again.
  • Tyler Herron quickly showed he was too good for High-A and was promoted to Harrisburg after 20 innings.  See the AA post for more.  Outlook for next season: AAA bullpen.
  • Christian Meza lasted about 5 weeks in Potomac, putting up a 6.62 ERA and greater than a 2.00 whip before getting demoted back to Hagerstown.  See the low-A post for more.  Outlook for next season: trying the high-A bullpen again, possible release candidate.
  • Travis Henke toiled most of the season in Hagerstown and got a late-season promotion.  See the low-A post for more.   Outlook for next season: high-A bullpen.
  • Cameron Selik struggled through 10 appearances and 11 innings throughout the course of the season, missing a ton of time as he struggled with injury.  He can’t go back to Potomac for the fourth straight season, can he?   Outlook for next season: AA bullpen if healthy, otherwise perhaps an unfortunate release candidate.
  • Other guys who had short stints with Potomac this year:
    • Ben Hawkins threw 8 innings and was released.
    • Justin Thomas threw just one inning in Potomac during his tour of the low-minors this year; see the Low-A post for more.

Summary

No less than 18 guys got starts this year for Potomac, in a 142 game season.   All five of their opening day starters were moved out (four up, one down) by mid-season, and yet the team still made the playoffs.  That’s a great testament to the pitcher development going on in our low minors, and I think it is going to show on the big club very soon.  Its not hard to see potential in a whole slew of the starters who passed through Potomac this year.

On the reliever side, there’s a couple of guys here who may make an impact, but there’s also a whole slew of right handed middle relievers who were college senior graduates who may very quickly find themselves pushed out by the later crops of college senior draftees.

Minor League Pitching Age Appropriateness for 2013

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Yunesky Maya is “Really Old” for AAA; but does it matter? Photo unknown

A recurring statement that you often hear when talking about prospects in the minors is “Age Appropriateness” for the level in which the player is playing.  And for good reason; a seasoned minor league player who is playing against younger, weaker competition should have dominant numbers, and when analyzing that player’s performance this should be taken into account.  On the flip side, if a guy advances quickly up the minors and is a “youngster” at a high level and performs poorly, he shouldn’t immediately be written off, since he’s likely overmatched and needs time to “grow” into the level.

This topic comes up here often when talking about pitchers and their performances, and I frequently talk about a guy “being old” or “being young” for his level as a way to either discount good performances or explain away poor ones.  But what is “Too old for a level?”

I have always used a rule-of-thumb measurement advocated by John Sickels at minorleagueball.com for looking at player ages (I cannot find the original Sickels posting but have seen it attributed to him in several forums).  That rule-of-thumb is as follows:

  • AAA: Typical Age range is 23-24.  Age 25 depends.  26+ is old
  • AA: 22-23.  24 depends.  25+ is old
  • High-A: 20-22.  23 depends.  24+ is old
  • Low-A: 19-21.  22 depends.  23+ is old
  • Short-A: 19-20.  21/22 for draft year guys only.  22+ is old
  • GCL: 17-19.  20 for draft year guys only.  21+ is old

Now, the caveats to the above are as follows:

1. This is specifically worried about prospect development; clearly we know that a former major leaguer on a minor league free agent contract in AAA is going to look like he’s really “old” for the level when we need understand his presence there differently.  A rising prospect who is in AAA at the age of 26 or 27 who hasn’t made it to the majors yet is absolutely “old” and is probably closer to minor league free agency or a release than he is to making the big team.

2. Injuries matter.  If a college grad loses a year to TJ surgery and then is sitting in high-A as a 24 year old in his second pro season (think Nathan Karns) you can’t really hold that against him.  But if he’s dominant, you can sort of explain why and say that he needs to be moved up.

Luke Erickson (with Brian Oliver‘s help) came up with similar looking ranges for the various levels and have made it a link off the main page of NationalsProspects.com.  And I talked about this topic a couple of years ago in this space in advance of this same analysis, which I last performed in 2011.


Without further ado, here’s a look at the actual age ranges of the Nationals four full season minor league teams as they stood on 2013′s Opening Day (yes, i’ve had this data in the can for a month and a half and am just getting around to publishing it).  I last did this analysis two years ago and it is interesting to see how the age ranges have changed slightly over the years.  Here’s 2011′s and 2013′s ranges (click here for a Google spreadsheet of all the detail to check my work and do your own sorting; this link is also in the Links to the right):

2011 AAA AA High-A Low-A
Really Young 25.54 or younger 24.44 or  younger 22.65 or younger 21.88 or younger
Young 25.54 – 26.93 24.44 – 25.37 22.65 – 23.83 21.88 – 22.84
Old 26.93 – 28.79 25.37 – 26.65 23.83 – 24.77 22.84 – 23.65
Really Old 28.79 or older 26.65 or older 24.77 or older 23.65 or older
2013 AAA AA High-A Low-A
Really Young 25.91 or younger 24.02 or younger 23.08 or younger 21.69 or younger
Young 25.92 – 27.75 24.02 – 25.17 23.08 – 24.00 21.69 – 22.66
Old 27.75 – 30.35 25.17 – 26.84 24.00 – 24.91 22.66 – 23.39
Really Old 30.35 or older 26.84 or older 24.91 or older 23.39 or older

Data Taxonomy: I’ve taken every pitcher on every team’s roster in each of the four leagues that the Nats have farm teams in (AAA = International, AA = Eastern, High-A = Carolina, Low-A = South Atlantic), put them into a spreadsheet, calculated their ages at the end of this season (9/1/13) and then calculated the four quartile figures in terms of age.  I only used pitchers in our leagues as opposed to the entire level across all of baseball thinking that different leagues may have different needs (I’m thinking how the California League and the Pacific Coast League has so many hitters parks and thus the pitchers may linger there longer, skewing the numbers).  I also standardized the numbers to be at the end of the season as opposed to the beginning, so that people can talk about a player’s “Age 25 season” for example.

So (using 2013′s AAA as an example): the 25th percentile age is 25.91, the 50th percentile or median age is 27.75, the 75th percentile age is 30.35.   For ease of labeling, anyone in the lowest quartile is “Really Young” for that level, 25th-50th is “Young,” 50th-75th is “Old” and anyone in the 75th percentile or higher is labeled “Really Old.”  I know some don’t like these labels; if someone just moves past the 50th percentile they go from being “Young” to “Old” in a hurry.  But I have to draw the lines somewhere.  The fractions are represented as fractions of an entire year of days, so .91 is 91/100ths of 365 days old.  This say, as opposed to the way that MLB service time is represented in Years.Days and you see numbers like “1.113.”

Looking at 2011 to 2013′s changes: notice how AAA is getting much older.  I think that is due to so many teams giving non-guaranteed MLFA deals to former starters and relievers and stashing them in AAA.  Look at our own team: we’ve got guys like Chris Young, Fernando Abad, and JC Romero all in their 30s, skewing the numbers northward.  Meanwhile both AA has gotten slightly  younger; its median age has dropped slightly.


Here’s a look at the Nationals’ four full season minor league pitching staffs, with the ages listed and the “age appropriate” label given. Note that I did this right at the beginning of the season so I havn’t captured all the moves made in the last month.

AAA Syracuse

Team Name DOB Age as of 9/1/13 Age Status
Syracuse (Washington) Bill Bray 6/5/1983 30.24 Old
Syracuse (Washington) Cole Kimball 8/1/1985 28.08 Old
Syracuse (Washington) Brad Meyers 9/13/1985 27.97 Old
Syracuse (Washington) Matt Torra 6/29/1984 29.17 Old
Syracuse (Washington) Sean West 6/15/1986 27.21 Young
Syracuse (Washington) Jeremy Accardo 12/8/1981 31.73 Really Old
Syracuse (Washington) Jeff Mandel 4/30/1985 28.34 Old
Syracuse (Washington) Patrick McCoy 8/3/1988 25.08 Really Young
Syracuse (Washington) J.C. Romero 6/4/1976 37.24 Really Old
Syracuse (Washington) Michael Crotta 9/25/1984 28.93 Old
Syracuse (Washington) Bobby Bramhall 7/13/1985 28.14 Old
Syracuse (Washington) Tanner Roark 10/5/1986 26.91 Young
Syracuse (Washington) Ryan Tatusko 3/27/1985 28.43 Old
Syracuse (Washington) Daniel Rosenbaum 10/10/1987 25.89 Really Young
Syracuse (Washington) Ross Ohlendorf 8/8/1982 31.07 Really Old
Syracuse (Washington) Fernando Abad 12/17/1985 27.71 Young
Syracuse (Washington) Erik Davis 10/8/1986 26.90 Young
Syracuse (Washington) Yunesky Maya 8/28/1981 32.01 Really Old
Syracuse (Washington) Ryan Perry 2/13/1987 26.55 Young
Syracuse (Washington) Chris Young 5/25/1979 34.27 Really Old

Discussion: Our “really old” guys are no surprise; they’re all basically guys on MLFA contracts.  Well, and Yunesky Maya, who is just playing out the string at this point.  I’m more interested in the “prospects” who are in AAA and their age status, and they mostly look good.   Pat McCoy and Danny Rosenbaum both rate as really young for the level.  Erik Davis and Ryan Perry both rate as young, even despite Perry’s MLB experience.  Otherwise are there even other “prospects” worth analyzing on the Syracuse roster at this point?  It seems that most everyone else on this team is a backup starter or a backup loogy.

Oldest Guy in the Int’l League: Miguel Batista with Toronto’s AAA affilliate.  Yes our own Mr. Batista from two years ago, still hanging around.  He’s yet to get called back up in 2013.  Ironically the 2nd oldest guy in AAA is also on Buffalo and is also an ex-Nat: Ramon Ortiz, who has gotten called up to help cover for Toronto’s injury-devistated staff and has a couple of apperances already.

Youngest Guy in the Intl’ League: Giovanni Soto with Cleveland’s AAA affilliate in Columbus.  He’s not considered a high-end prospect; he’s just a guy drafted out of HS who has made his way level-by-level and is now 22 in AAA.  The 2nd youngest guy in AAA is a more familiar name (Trevor Bauer, also with Cleveland’s team) and the ten youngest pitchers in the league reads like a top-50 Pitching prospects list MLB-wide.

Percentage of Int’l League pitchers on MLB 40-man rosters: 65/210 or 30.9%.   This shows just how much AAA is turning into a spare-parts holding league.


AA Harrisburg

Team Name DOB Age as of 9/1/13 Age Status
Harrisburg (Washington) Adam Olbrychowski 9/7/1986 26.98 Really Old
Harrisburg (Washington) Sammy Solis 8/10/1988 25.06 Young
Harrisburg (Washington) Rafael Martin 5/16/1984 29.30 Really Old
Harrisburg (Washington) Cameron Selik 8/25/1987 26.02 Old
Harrisburg (Washington) Paul Demny 8/3/1989 24.08 Young
Harrisburg (Washington) Marcos Frias 12/19/1988 24.70 Young
Harrisburg (Washington) Brian Broderick 9/1/1986 27.00 Really Old
Harrisburg (Washington) Trevor Holder 1/8/1987 26.65 Old
Harrisburg (Washington) Aaron Barrett 1/2/1988 25.66 Old
Harrisburg (Washington) Caleb Clay 2/15/1988 25.54 Old
Harrisburg (Washington) Neil Holland 8/14/1988 25.05 Young
Harrisburg (Washington) Rob Wort 2/7/1989 24.56 Young
Harrisburg (Washington) Pat Lehman 10/18/1986 26.87 Really Old
Harrisburg (Washington) Matt Swynenberg 2/16/1989 24.54 Young
Harrisburg (Washington) Ian Krol 5/9/1991 22.32 Really Young
Harrisburg (Washington) Blake Treinen 6/30/1988 25.17 Young
Harrisburg (Washington) Nathan Karns 11/25/1987 25.77 Old

Borrowing from my Monthly check-in on the Minor League staffs, who are we really interested in on this roster?  The rotation is Broderick, Treinen, Demny, Clay and Karns.  Broderick is really old for the level, but we already knew that (considering he was in the majors as our Rule-5 draftee two years ago).  Karns and Clay are “old” for the level but not overly so; the median age is 25.17 and they’re 25.77 and 25.54 respectively.  So just a few months older than the median.  Not bad considering Karns basically lost two years of development time due to injuries.   When the team gets Solis back, he’ll still be young.  And most interestingly is Ian Krol who is the 4th youngest guy in the Eastern League but has dominant numbers thus far in 2013.  Most of the “really old” guys are relievers who most would agree are “Org guys” and will naturally fall of the roster when their 6-year FA period arrives.

Oldest Guy in the Eastern League: Willie Collazo on Toronto’s AA team in New Hampshire, who had four years in the PCL and likely is only on a AA roster as a procedural location since he started the season on the DL.  In fact, most of that team’s roster is among the 20 oldest guys in the league.  And as with the AAA team there are ex-Nats all over their rosters.   I think we’re seeing the effects of former Nats front-office member Dana Brown now in Toronto helping to shape their minor league roster with guys he’s familiar with.

Youngest Guy in the Eastern League: One Dylan Bundy, Baltimore farm-hand who already has MLB innings and who some thought could have broken camp with the Orioles.  Unfortunatley for Bundy, he’s been sidelined with shoulder issues all year.  But he’s clearly an up-and-coming talent.  The 2nd youngest guy in the Eastern league is also a big-time prospect: Jamison Taillon in Pittsburgh’s org.  In fact, when Taillon and his fellow uber-prospect Gerrit Cole matriculate to the majors, Pittsburgh is going to suddenly find themselves with one of the league’s elite pitching staffs.

Percentage of Eastern League pitchers on MLB 40-man rosters: 15/182 or 8.24%.  Just a handful (Nathan Karns is one, Bundy is one).


High-A Potomac

Team Name DOB Age as of 9/1/13 Age Status
Potomac (Washington) Paul Applebee 5/17/1988 25.29 Really Old
Potomac (Washington) Robert Gilliam 11/29/1987 25.76 Really Old
Potomac (Washington) Josh Smoker 11/26/1988 24.76 Old
Potomac (Washington) Matthew Grace 12/14/1988 24.71 Old
Potomac (Washington) Robbie Ray 10/1/1991 21.92 Really Young
Potomac (Washington) Colin Bates 3/10/1988 25.48 Really Old
Potomac (Washington) A.J. Cole 1/5/1992 21.66 Really Young
Potomac (Washington) Ben Hawkins 11/4/1989 23.82 Young
Potomac (Washington) Tyler Herron 8/5/1986 27.07 Really Old
Potomac (Washington) Gregory Holt 6/19/1989 24.20 Old
Potomac (Washington) Taylor Jordan 1/17/1989 24.62 Old
Potomac (Washington) Christian Meza 8/3/1990 23.08 Really Young
Potomac (Washington) Richie Mirowski 4/30/1989 24.34 Old
Potomac (Washington) Derek Self 1/14/1990 23.63 Young
Potomac (Washington) Taylor Hill 3/12/1989 24.47 Old
Potomac (Washington) Kylin Turnbull 9/12/1989 23.97 Young

Discussion: Our starters at the time of this writing in Potomac are Ray, Jordan, Schwartz, Cole and Hill.   Schwartz wasn’t on this roster when I did the cut-n-paste jobs but he’s almost the same identical age as the man he replaced Turnbull.   Ray and Cole still rate as “Really Young” (they’re the 7th and 10th youngest guys in the Carolina league) despite both guys repeating this level, a testament to just how young these guys were LAST year.  Jordan rates as “old” but with the injury caveat.  Hill is four months older than the median age so frankly he’s right on schedule.   By and large though this is an older staff, which to me is indicative of the college-heavy pitcher drafts Mike Rizzo has done the last few years.  All of our staffs are going to trend old.

Oldest/Youngest Guys in Carolina League: Baltimore’s Frederick affiliate oddly has the two youngest guys (Eduardo Rodriguez, Zachary Davies) and the two oldest guys (Eunchul Choi and Rob Delaney) in the league.  I’ve never heard anything about any of these four, so I can’t really add much commentary here :-)

Percentage of Carolina pitchers on MLB 40-man rosters: Just 2/115 for 1.74%


Low-A Hagerstown

Team Name DOB Age as of 9/1/13 Age Status
Hagerstown (Washington) Blake Schwartz 10/9/1989 23.90 Really Old
Hagerstown (Washington) Brett Mooneyham 1/24/1990 23.60 Really Old
Hagerstown (Washington) Brian Dupra 12/15/1988 24.71 Really Old
Hagerstown (Washington) Brian Rauh 7/23/1991 22.11 Young
Hagerstown (Washington) Bryan Harper 12/29/1989 23.67 Really Old
Hagerstown (Washington) David Fischer 4/10/1990 23.39 Old
Hagerstown (Washington) Dean Weaver 5/17/1988 25.29 Really Old
Hagerstown (Washington) Dixon Anderson 7/2/1989 24.17 Really Old
Hagerstown (Washington) Ivan Pineyro 9/29/1991 21.92 Young
Hagerstown (Washington) Matt Purke 7/17/1990 23.13 Old
Hagerstown (Washington) Pedro Encarnacion 6/26/1991 22.18 Young
Hagerstown (Washington) Robert Benincasa 9/5/1990 22.99 Old
Hagerstown (Washington) Ronald Pena 9/19/1991 21.95 Young
Hagerstown (Washington) Todd Simko 12/5/1988 24.74 Really Old
Hagerstown (Washington) Travis Henke 7/9/1988 25.15 Really Old
Hagerstown (Washington) Will Hudgins 2/12/1990 23.55 Really Old
Hagerstown (Washington) Wirkin Estevez 3/15/1992 21.46 Really Young

Discussion: as with Potomac, 9 of the 17 guys on this staff are in the “Really Old” category, again a testament to the college-heavy arm drafting of late.  Even Brett Mooneyham is now on the old side of the league median age, and he’s just got one full pro season under his belt.  The one guy listed as “Really Young” is DSL grad Wirkin Estevez

Oldest Guy in the Sally League: Miami’s low-A affiliate in Greensboro has a guy who is already 28 named Miguel Fermin.  He’s in low-A because he’s converting to be a Pitcher after 6 years as a middle infielder.

Youngest Guy in the Sally League: Atlanta’s Lucas Sims, their 1st round draft pick from 2012, who hasn’t even turned 19 as of today (but will have by the end of the season).  The 2nd youngest is a lefty prep draftee in Baltimore’s system named Josh Hader who has an interesting story thus far; he was a HS draftee in the 19th round who put up great numbers in short-season last year, broke with the low-A team and has a 1.74 ERA through four starts as of the time of this writing.  Sounds like a heck of a draft find for Baltimore so far.

Percentage of Sally League pitchers on MLB 40-man rosters: 1 of 196 pitchers.  That one?  our very own Matt Purke, who at this point, I’m not afraid to say, looks like he could be a draft bust.  Not a major one though mind you; the Nats bribed him out of his college commitment with a 3rd round pick but mid first round money in 2011.   But that could end up being a lost 3rd round pick unless Purke can show us something this year.  In some ways it was a great gamble to get a guy who was 15-0 as a freshman … and “its just money” right?  If this kind of draft money allocation were to have happened in the new system, and the team blew its entire wad of money on one injury-prone guy, we’d be much more concerned.

May 2013: Minor League Monthly Rotation Review

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Welcome back Matt Purke. Photo AP/Nati Harnik

With the draft and the big early June roster shakeup and the College World Series going on (I’m apparently the only guy in Nats-land who cares about it), I’m a little late with this monthly quick glance at the Minor League starters.  Here’s April 2013′s version.

For each level, I’ll put out the Rotation members, their “letter grades” per start and then throw in a quick table to show their seasonal stats for context.  As with last month, the top group of Starters per level is the “current rotation” as best as we can figure it, then I’ve got a line for guys who got spot starts or (especially in the lower levels) guys who did long relief or “second start” stints.


AAA Rotation

  • Maya: A,D+,A–>promoted/dfa/back, D-/inc->injury
  • Tatusko: B+,A,C-
  • Ohlendorf: A,C-,D,D-,A,A
  • Torra:  D,D-
  • Rosenbaum: D,A,F,B+,B-,F
  • Roark: A
  • Mandel: B-,D+,A
  • Perry: F,B,F,F -> D/L
  • Young: B,C-,F-,C-,D-/inc -> D/L

Discussion: Syracuse YTD Stats are here for reference

May saw some interesting movement in the underperforming Syracuse rotation.  MLFA signing and supposed MLB rotation insurance policy #1  Chris Young continued to struggle before hitting the D/L.  Similarly, Ryan Perry put in a number of ugly appearances and also landed on the D/L.  This created an opeing for two new guys in the rotation, handled somewhat ably by Ryan Tatusko and somewhat less ably by MLFA Matt Torra.  Ross Ohlendorf righted the ship a bit and put himself in line for an earned callup on the strength of several good outings, only to have the weather in Washington conspire against him.  Yunesky Maya got a long-deserved DFA and outright, and now sits in limbo having not pitched since his aborted 5/31 start.  Lastly Danny Rosenbaum continues to have the best stat line of any starter in Syracuse, but (as often discussed here) he seems destined for life as a 6-year free agent plying his trade elsewhere in this Mike Rizzo-run organization that values power arms over finesse artists.


AA Rotation

  • Gilliam: D,A+
  • Treinen: A,F,D,B+,C-,B+
  • Demny: D+,A+,A-,D,A,B
  • Clay: C-,F,D,A-,A-
  • Jordan B,A+,D/inc->up and back,A
  • Swynenberg C+,C+
  • Holland: B+
  • Rauh: A
  • Holder: released (why?)
  • Broderick: C-,C+->D/L
  • Broadway: A->promoted
  • Karns: A-,B+,F,C+,C+->promoted

Discussion: Harrisburg YTD Stats are here for reference

The Harrisburg rotation continues to house a number of sub 4.00 ERA hurlers and we’re starting to see some movement among the ranks.  First and foremost Nathan Karns “earned” a callup to the big club probably mostly by his placement on the 40-man roster at the time, but also b/c of his excellent K/9 ratio.   Brian Broderick‘s D/L stint (will he return at this point or go straight from the D/L->release?) has opened the door for a couple new names.  Taylor Jordan continues his great comeback from his 2011 Tommy John surgery.  Paul Demny‘s string of excellent starts earned him a brief Syracuse call-up.   Robert Gilliam struggled in his AA debut but righted the ship and (as of this writing) has decent enough AA numbers that he seems to be capable of sticking on.  One odd personnel move was the abrupt release of Trevor Holder, who didn’t have bad numbers on the season and was immediately picked up by San Diego.  I wonder if there’s something to this story.


High-A Rotation

  • Ray: B-,A,A/Inc,A,C-,B+/inc
  • Solis: C+/inc,A/inc (pitch count limited)
  • Cole: A,B+,D-,D,B-
  • Hill: A,A-/inc,B+,F,F
  • Schwartz: B-,A+,B+,A+,C-
  • Fischer: C+,D+
  • Bates A,B+
  • Holt: A
  • Herron: D+,B+ -> Promoted
  • Jordan:  A+->promoted
  • Gillam:  B,F->promoted
  • Dupra: D,B- -> demoted
  • Grace: A

Discussion: Potomac YTD Stats are here for reference

Welcome back Sammy Solis; he’s slowly getting re-initiated to the rotation and spent his last May starts on strict pitch count limits.   After a disastrous 2012 Robbie Ray continues his excellent campaign and may be making a statement for the next promotion (as of this writing: 81Ks in 62 innings as one of the younger guys in high-A?  wow).  A.J. Cole continues to be frustratingly hit or miss; one night he’ll strike out 11 in 6, another night he gives up 5 runs in 5.  Speaking of inconsistent; Taylor Hill‘s last two May starts were awful, then his first two June starts were stellar.  All in all though, Potomac’s rotation has been a bright point for the farm system and has produced a number of promotions before the all star break.


Low-A Rotation

  • Anderson: A,A-,F,A,C-,B+
  • Encarnation: A,A-,C-,D-,B->bullpen for Purke?
  • Lee: B+,F
  • Pineyro: A-,C+,C-,A,C
  • Purke: A
  • Henke: | C
  • Rauh: D,B+->up/down
  • RPena: C-,A for effort,C,F,C-
  • Fischer: A,A–>promoted
  • Turnbull: D+,F,D-,C- ->demoted

Discussion: Hagerstown YTD Stats are here for reference

I’ll be honest; right now its hard to tell what the “rotation” is in Hagerstown.   The arrival of Matthew Purke seemingly had to bump someone, but its hard to tell who.  Purke’s showing some great swing-and-miss stuff in his first pro starts in half-of-forever; if this guy can turn back into the prospect he once was, the Nats will be ecstatic.  DSL grads Pedro Encarnacion and Ivan Pineyro continue to put up good numbers for the Low-A Suns.  As does Dixon Anderson, who is seemingly due for a promotion at this point.

Nats Major & Minor League Pitching Staffs vs Predictions

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First off, this is partly a post of self-flaggelation, to show how far off my various predictions of what the 2013 minor league staffs would look like by doing 2012 season-ending analysis.  Such is the nature of minor league pitching staffs in the modern day; they’re a combination of spare parts, rising stars and hangers-on and they can change rapidly with trades and spring training performances.  Every trade and every MLFA signing trickles down and fouls up predicitons.

Here’s my End of Season 2012 post with predictions for each of the 2013 minor league pitching staffs.   We’ll use that as a basis for the Opening Day 2013 rosters of the four full-season minor league teams.  Just for fun we’ll throw in (and start with) the MLB prediction.  Note that this early in the season we don’t really know who’s shaking out as starters and relievers necessarily for these minor league teams; i’m just going on first week usage right now.  As always, Luke Erickson and nationalsprospects.com, the Nats Big Board and the tireless work by “SpringfieldFan” is much appreciated here.


MLB Nov 2012 Prediction

  • MLB Rotation: Strasburg, Gonzalez, Zimmermann, Detwiler, FA or other acquisition
  • MLB Bullpen: Clippard, Storen, Mattheus, Stammen, Garcia, a FA left-hander (possibly Burnett), a FA long-man (possibly Gorzelanny).
  • MLB notables Out of Organization: Jackson, Burnett, Gonzalez, Lannan, Wang

MLB April 2013 Actual

  • MLB Rotation: Strasburg, Gonzalez, Zimmermann, Detwiler, Haren
  • MLB Bullpen: Clippard, Storen, Mattheus, Stammen, Duke, Rodriguez, Soriano
  • MLB notables Out of Organization: Jackson, Burnett, Gonzalez, Lannan, Wang, Gorzelanny

MLB Discussion: It wasn’t going to be that difficult to predict the 2013 Nats pitching staff make-up by looking at our staff and their FA status heading into the off-season.  The rotation filled its one spot with Dan Haren.  The bullpen was 5/7ths predicted correctly (if you count Zach Duke as a FA left-hander acquisition).  Christian Garcia‘s injury opened the door for one more season of Henry Rodriguez, and of course nobody could have predicted the Rafael Soriano purchase.  Lastly all 5 of the predicted departures occured, in addition to Tom Gorzelanny being let go.


AAA Nov 2012 Prediction

  • AAA Rotation: Roark, Maya, Broderick, Meyers, Perry
  • AAA Bullpen: Tatusko (swingman), Arneson (swingman), Severino (loogy), Davis, Lehman, Nelo (closer), Martin,  Mandel

AAA Apr 2013 Actual

  • AAA Rotation: Ohlendorf, Roark, Maya,Perry, Rosenbaum ( eventually Young)
  • AAA Bullpen: Tatusko, Mandel,  Davis, McCoy, Crotta, Abad, Romero, Bramhall
  • AAA D/L: Kimball, Bray, Meyers, Torra, West, Garcia (technically XLS), Accardo
  • AAA cut/released/FA: HPena, Mann, Zinicola, Arneson, Atkins, Ballard
  • AAA Missing: none

AAA Discussion

We were 3/5s correct on the rotation, and probably would have been 4/5ths right if Brad Meyers was healthy.  Ross Ohlendorf and (eventually) Chris Young are new faces here, both being former MLB starters who are taking the Zach Duke route of signing on for full seasons as AAA starter insurance for the big club in the hopes of rebuilding value and finding a MLB job for next year.  Brian Broderick is indeed back; its just that he’s starting for AA instead of AAA.  Lastly Danny Rosenbaum was returned to the team after his spring Rule-5 adventure and was put in AAA instead of AA, where (as we’ll see in a second) I would have predicted he would start.  Once Young is ready to go, I see Tanner Roark turning into the swingman/long-man.

On the bright side (pun intended), when was the last time a professional baseball team had TWO Ivy League alumni pitching in its rotation??  Both Young and Ohlendorf went to Princeton.  I wonder if they have NYTimes crossword puzzle competitions instead of (assumedly) video game competitions on off-days in the clubhouse.

As far as bullpen predictions go, next year I’m paying more close attention to who are 6-year free agents.  Arneson, Severino and Nelo were all MLFAs and have either signed on elsewhere or are facing forced retirement.  Tatusko, Davis and Mandel are onboard.  Lehman is (surprisingly?) in AA, perhaps a victim of the numbers game of the Nats signing (and keeping) a number of minor league lefty relievers this off-season.  I would guess, looking at the names in the bullpen, that Erik Davis is the closer but who knows what the usage will be like.  Lastly Bramhall was a MLFA signing over the off-season who just got placed on the AAA roster to replace the injured Accardo.


AA Nov 2012 Prediction

  • AA Rotation: Rosenbaum, Holder, Gilliam, Karns, Grace, Demny (swingman?) or MLFA?  Solis if he’s healthy?
  • AA Bullpen: Frias, McCoy, Selik (maybe high-A again), Holland (setup),  Wort (closer), VanAllen (loogy), Demmin (maybe high-A again), an org arm or two to fill in.

AA Apr 2013 Actual

  • AA Rotation: Broderick, Treinen, Demny, Clay, Karns
  • AA Bullpen: Holder, Frias, Holland, Wort, Barrett,  Krol,  Lehman, Swynenberg
  • AA D/L: Solis, RMartin, Olbrychowski, Selik
  • AA Cut/released/FA: VanAllen
  • AA Missing: none

AA Discussion

We got, well, not much of this right.  Of my starter predictions: Rosenbaum is in AAA, Holder is here but seems to be the long-man right now, Gilliam is hurt, Solis is still on the DL, and Grace is back in High-A.  We do seem to have at least gotten Karns and Demny right.  Broderick was a surprise FA signing, his being a favorite of the Nats organziation per our Rule-5 experiment with him a couple years back.  I’m surprised he’s not in the AAA rotation though.  Treinen was a trade-throw in from the Morse deal and takes a spot in this rotation, while Clay was a 2013 MLFA signing who (surprisingly?) made the rotation over the likes of other candidates.

The bullen prediction is all over the place: We got Frias, Holland and Wort right.  McCoy is in AAA, Selik is on the AA D/L and VanAllen and Demmin were MLFAs who were left unsigned (and per the big board are still unsigned).   I thought Barrett and Swynenberg would be in high-A instead of AA, I (and most others) thought Lehman would be in AAA, and Krol arrived as the PTBNL in the Morse trade.


High-A Nov 2012 Prediction

  • High-A Rotation: Swynenberg, Ray, Meyer (maybe AA?), Schwartz (maybe low-A), Rauh(maybe low-A)
  • High-A Bullpen Competition: Barrett (maybe AA) , Testa, Smoker (loogy), Hill, Meza(perhaps a starter?), Holt, Hawkins, Bates, Mirowski
  • High-A bullpen Release candidates: Olbrychowski, McCatty, Applebee

High-A Apr 2013 Actual

  • High-A Rotation: Ray, Jordan, Cole, Turnbull, Hill
  • High-A Bullpen Competition: Herron, Mirowski, Holt, Hawkins, Meza, Bates, Self, Grace
  • High-A D/L: Smoker, Applebee, Gilliam
  • High-A Cut/FA/Released: Demmin, Consuegra, Samuel, Testa
  • High-A Missing: McCatty, Olbrychowski

High-A Discussion

The Potomac rotation guess was already light; a couple of the guys I was guessing might be in low-A are indeed there (Schwartz and Rauh).  Swynenberg is in the AA bullpen.  Meyer was traded.  Only Robbie Ray returns.  I thought Jordan was going to repeat Hagerstown.   We got Cole back in the Morse trade and bumped up Turnbull from short season (over Mooneyham, interestingly) Lastly Hill seems to have beaten out Grace for the 5th starter spot.

The Bullpen prediction looks pretty good: 7 of the predicted guys are here (Smoker on the DL, Meza, Holt, Hawkins, Mirowski and Bates).  Barrett indeed is in AA.  Testa was released.  Of my release candidates McCatty is in XST, Applebee and Olbrychowski are on the DL.  Lastly both Samuel and Consuegra were off-season MLFA signings who didn’t pan out and have already been released.


Low-A Nov 2012 Prediction

  • Low-A Rotation: Turnbull, Jordan, Purke (if healthy), Monar, Mooneyham
  • Low-A Rotation Competitors: Hansen, Lee (loogy if not), Encarnation, McGeary (if finally healthy)
  • Low-A Bullpen Competition: Anderson, Estevez, Dupra, McKenzie, Henke, Davis, Boyden, Benincasa, Hudgins, Dicherry, Mudron

Low-A Apr 2013 Actual

  • Low-A Rotation: Anderson, Mooneyham, Pineyro, RPena, Encarnation
  • Low-A Swingmen: Rauh, Schwarz, Dupra
  • Low-A Bullpen: Fischer, Harper, Henke, Hudgins, Benincasa
  • Low-A D/L: Estevez, Purke, Simko, Mesa, Weaver
  • Low-A Cut/FA/Released: Kreis, Lucas, Upperman, Hansen, Monar
  • Low-A Missing: Hollins, Hicks

Low-A Discussion

Historically the hardest to predict, the Low-A team.  Of the guesses for the rotation last fall, we only got Mooneyham right.  Turnbull and Jordan were bumped up a level.  Purke is still hurt.  Of the “competitors” the team flat out released Monar and Hansen to my surprise.  Monar was really good in Auburn last year, and while Bobby Hansen wasn’t nearly as dominant as a starter, I thought he’d at least get a shot at being a loogy after so many years in the organization.  Jack McGeary was selected out of the org during the minor league phase of the rule-5 draft.  Lee is in XST limbo right now.

So who are these surprising Low-A rotation guys?  I thought Anderson would be relegated to the bullpen in Low-A; instead he’s the opening day starter.  I thought Pineyro would repeat short-season ball but he made the full-season team.  And lastly I thought Pena was destined for another season in short-A.

Rauh and Schwartz, after I thought they had shots in the rotation in high-A, seem to be taking the roles of “2nd starters” for now, each having gone multiple innings in relief of the starter.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see them becoming full time starters if one of the 5 guys ahead of them falter.

Most of the rest of the predicted bullpen are 2012 signees who are currently amongst a large group of extended spring training guys who will be battling it out for short-season jobs with 2013 signees.   And we seem to have a very large group of them; the big board lists in excess of 30 hurlers who are currently still in the organization, who are not on the D/L officially, but who are not assigned to one of the four full season teams.   That’s a lot of arms for just a handful of spots in short-A and the rookie league after the 2013 draft occurs.

Written by Todd Boss

April 11th, 2013 at 8:41 am

Posted in Majors Pitching,Minor League Pitching,Rule-5

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DC-IBWA Pre-2013 Season Predictions

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I took part in the DC-IBWA’s pre-season survey this year (despite this blog being missing from the “participants” page on the result link…) along with many of our fellow Nats bloggers.  The full results are here; I gave both a player and a guess on the totals, and compared my guesses to the poll results.

1) Who will lead the Nats in home runs in 2013? Bryce Harper, 35hrs.  Makes sense that Harper takes the lead; Morse is gone, Zimmerman has only shown 30-homer power in one injury-free season and I think Harper is a dangerous bet for a 30/30 season in 2013.  (Harper was the poll leader as well).

2) Who will lead the Nats in RBI?: Adam LaRoche, 105rbi.  The #5 hitter behind a slew of high OBP guys in front of him is going to get plenty of RBI opportunities.  Most people said Zimmerman; I just constantly worry about his ability to play 162.

3) Who will lead the Nats in stolen bases? Ian Desmond, 25sbs.  Most people guessed Span, but he hasn’t been the SB machine that people think.  Desmond is a better bet.

4) Who will lead the staff in wins? Stephen Strasburg, 20wins.  As good a guess as any.  It wouldn’t surprise me to see any of our top 3 pitchers broach 20 wins.

5) Who will make more appearances for the Nats this season: Rafael Soriano, Drew Storen, Tyler Clippard or Craig Stammen? Tyler Clippard, 70games.   The addition of Soriano allows Clippard to go back to his work-horse self, and he’ll lead the team in appearances again.  Soriano will only get save opps, Storen is too close to being the closer to get the workhorse treatment, and Stammen isn’t going to throw unless the starter gets yanked early.   (Clippard was the poll leader as well)

6) Who will get more at bats for the Nats this season: Kurt Suzuki or Wilson Ramos? Hmmm.  Tough one.  I’ll go with Suzuki with 400ab.  I don’t think Ramos can stay healthy.  I could be wrong; Ramos seems to have won the starter role at least from the onset.  Poll favored Ramos.

7) Which minor leaguer are you most interested in keeping tabs on this season? Matt Purke.   We know what our top two guys can do for the most part (Rendon and Goodwin).  Giolito is basically out all year and Cole needs a full season in A-ball to regain confidence.  Purke needs to show us something in 2013.  He seems to be healthy, and we need to know if the monetary investment is going to pay off.  A close second may be Matt Skole; can he make the leap from over-aged low-A slugger to a legitimate power prospect who could take over 1st when LaRoche’s contract ends?  So far from spring training, it seems like the answer could be a yes.  (Poll winner was Rendon easily).

8 ) Date of Anthony Rendon’s Major League debut? July 1.  Long enough to ensure one additional year and avoid super-2.  The club gives Espinosa 3 full months to show he’s healthy and can hit better than .240.  I could easily see more Espinosa struggles, a DL trip to repair his shoulder and Rendon taking over 2B for the 2nd half.  I hope not; he’s my fantasy shortstop :-) .   Poll winner was Sept 1.

9) How many all-stars will the Nats have? Who? 4; Strasburg, Gonzalez, Harper and Desmond.  The Poll results were all over the road, but lots of support for Zimmerman to re-gain his all-star stature.  Problem is … there’s a few big names at third base in the NL that Zimmerman would have to out-perform to get votes.  David Wright and Pablo Sandoval first among them, perhaps David Freese and Chase Headley as well.

10) Total wins and what place in the division? 100 wins, 1st in division.  Most people have the team pegged for slightly fewer.

Essay: What should be the single most important development for the Nats this season?

I think the overall health of the Rotation is going to be the biggest factor for the team.  We have no starting pitching depth to speak of, and a lengthy injury to any of the front line pitchers will affect our win total.

Good Lord we’ve drafted a lot of Arms …

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Alex Meyer leads a very very large pack of college arms in the Nats draft class. Photo via Lex18.com

I wrote this post in three parts, after each of the draft’s three days.  Hence the groupings.

Here’s a quick breakdown of the top 10 rounds.

- Anthony Rendon 2b/3b 1/6 Rice Jr.  Boras client, slipped b/c of shoulder injury #1 BA ranked
- Alex Meyer rhp 1/23 UKentucky Jr. big starter, 97mph
- Brian Goodwin of S1/34 Miami Dade Juco (was unc).  lefty leadoff/cf type.
- Matt Purke lhp 3/96 TCU Soph. Fantastic pick, was a top10 talent, shoulder bursitis issue.
- Kylin Turnbull lhp 4/127 Santa Barbara Juco.  6-4, 93mph
- Matt Skole 3b 5/157 Georgia Tech Jr.  Big bat.  47homers in 3yr college career.  wow.
- David Hill rhp 6/187 Vanderbuilt Sr.
- Brian Dupra rhp 7/217 Notre Dame Sr.
- Gregory Holt rhp 8/247 UNC Sr.
- Dixon Anderson rhp 9/277 California Sr.
- Manny Rodriguez rhp 10/307 Barry University Sr.

First day observations: Wow, that’s a lot of pitching.  8 of our first 11 picks are college arms.  Not ONE high school guy.

Looking at the next 20 rounds (where there’s less of a chance the guy pans out):

- Caleb Ramsey OF   11 Houston Sr.
- Blake Monar LHP  12 Indiana Jr.
- Blake Kalenkosky 1B   13 Texas State Jr.
- Cody Stubbs OF   14 Walters State JuCo J2
- Zach Houchins SS   15 Louisburg JuCo J1
- Deion Williams SS   16 Redan (Ga.) HS (Committed to Georgia State)
- Esteban Guzman RHP  17 San Jose State Jr.
- Nicholas Lee LHP  18 Weatherford College JuCo J2
- Hawtin Buchannan RHP  19 Biloxi (Miss.) HS (Committed to Ole Mis/Mississippi)
- Josh Laxer RHP  20 Madison (Miss.) Central HS (Committed to Ole Mis/Mississippi)
- Todd Simko LHP  21 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Jr.
- Travis Henke RHP  22 Arkansas-Little Rock Sr.
- Khayyan Norfork 2B   23 Tennessee Sr.
- Kyle Ottoson LHP  24 Arizona State Jr.
- Erick Fernandez C    25 Georgetown Sr.
- Shawn Pleffner OF   26 Univ. of Tampa Jr.
- Bobby Lucas LHP  27 George Washington Sr.
- Kenneth Ferrer RHP  28 Elon University Sr.
- Sean Cotton C    29 Tusculum College Sr.
- Bryan Harper LHP  30 South Carolina Jr.

In rounds 11-30, here’s some highlights:

  • A grand total of 3 high schoolers.  And I’d be shocked if any of them sign based on college commitments and their relatively low draft rankings.  I could be wrong though, especially with Williams.  We’d pretty much destroy Ole Miss’ recruiting class if we took both guys who committed there.
  • 11 more pitchers, making 19 out of the first 31 players we’ve drafted in 2011 arms.

Day 3: here’s rounds 31-50

Josh Tobias SS 31 Southeast Guilford HS (NC) (Florida committment)
Billy Burns OF 32 Mercer Univ. (GA) Jr.
Trey Karlen 2B 33 Univ. of Tennessee-Martin Sr.
Calvin Drummond RHP 34 Univ. of San Diego (CA) Jr.
Alex Kreis RHP 35 Jamestown College (ND) Sr.
Ben Hawkins LHP 36 Univ. of West Florida Jr.
Derrick Bleeker RHP 37 Howard College (TX) Juco J2
Brett Mooneyham LHP 38 Stanford Univ. (CA) Jr.
Peter Verdin OF 39 Univ. of Georgia Jr.
Stephen Collum OF 40 Cartersville HS (GA) (? commit)
Bryce Ortega 3B 41 Univ. of Arizona Sr.
David Kerian SS 42 Bishop Heelan HS (IA) (? commit)
Mitchell Morales SS 43 Wellington Community HS (? commit)
Matt Snyder 1B 44 Univ. of Mississippi Jr.
Richie Mirowski RHP 45 Oklahoma Baptist Univ. Sr.
Tyler Thompson OF 46 Univ. of Florida Jr.
Timothy Montgomery LHP 47 Rockmart HS (GA) (? commit)
Michael Bisenius OF 48 Wayne State College (NE) Jr.
Hunter Cole OF 49 Dorman HS (SC) (? commit)
Anthony Nix OF 50 Univ. of California-Riverside Sr.

Round 31-50 stats:

  • 6 high schoolers, most with very little chance of signing (why sign in the mid 30s for a pittance when you can go to college, get an education and improve your draft status and bonus money?)
  • 13 of the last 20 picks non-pitchers
  • A number of these 30-50th round guys are college juniors, meaning they’re likely to go back to school.
  • 7 more pitchers, bringing the total in the draft to 27 pitchers overall.  Only ONE high school arm.

Coincidentally, “Sue Dinem” has already updated the Draft Tracker xls (one of my favorite Nats resources online: thanks Sue!).

In terms of the first few drat picks: i’m presuming that all Scott Boras clients will NOT sign til 10 minutes before the August 15th deadline, so that means Rendon, Meyer and Goodwin we’ll see you in Viera next spring.  Purke; he’s going to be an interesting negotiation, since he turned down top10 money 2 years ago and presumably can threaten to go back to school.  His negotiations probably go down to the wire as well.  Most likely he pitches in the Cape Cod league, and if he shows he’s got any sort of velocity coming back, we’ll offer him first round money.  Otherwise he’ll return for his third year and the Nats will get a 3rd round compensation pick in 2012.  Not the best solution for us but workable if he’s completely damaged goods.

From Turnbull on down to about the 20th round, i’m guessing everyone signs, and signs fast.   We’ve got a ton of college seniors with no place else to go, and little room for bonus money negotiation.  These guys are going to sign quickly and go directly to Auburn.

I’m a bit surprised at the pitcher focus frankly.  I perceive that we’re rather thin on positional players in our low-minors right now.   Looking at Baseball America’s top 30 for the organization at the end of 2010, the breakdown was as follows:

  • Outfielders (5): Harper, Perez, Hood, Burgess, Ramirez
  • Catchers (2): Norris, Ramos
  • Infielders (8): Espinosa, Marrero, Lombardozzi, Hague, Sanchez, Kobernus, Martinson, Moore
  • Right Handed Starters (7): Cole, Peacock, Maya, Morris, Tatusko, Meyers, Holder
  • Right Handed Relievers (4): Kimball, Ramirez, Carr, Pena
  • Left Handed Starters(4): Solis, Ray, Milone, Rosenbaum
  • Left Handed Relievers (0)

Of these 30 players, 2 have since been traded away (Morris, Burgess) while several more are now on the 25-man roster (Ramos, Espinosa, Maya for the time being and Kimball).  That leaves a breakdown of 12 positional players and 12 pitchers in the minors at the top level of BA’s analysis.  But its hard to look at most of positional players left in the minors and really say “those guys are a sure thing.”

Now we have 26 more arms to fit in, and not a bunch more hitters frankly.  The short-A and GCL are going to be stocked with arms and probably making due with what’s left in extended spring.  There’s approximately 24-26 pitcher slots to fill in short-A and GCL … but we still have a number of arms in extended spring that will be competing.  I wonder how many guys are about to get pink slips.

Get ready for an interesting summer.

Josh Tobias SS 31 Southeast Guilford HS (NC) (Florida committment)
Billy Burns OF 32 Mercer Univ. (GA) Jr.
Trey Karlen 2B 33 Univ. of Tennessee-Martin Sr.
Calvin Drummond RHP 34 Univ. of San Diego (CA) Jr.
Alex Kreis RHP 35 Jamestown College (ND) Sr.
Ben Hawkins LHP 36 Univ. of West Florida Jr.
Derrick Bleeker RHP 37 Howard College (TX) Juco J2
Brett Mooneyham LHP 38 Stanford Univ. (CA) Jr.
Peter Verdin OF 39 Univ. of Georgia Jr.
Stephen Collum OF 40 Cartersville HS (GA) (? commit)
Bryce Ortega 3B 41 Univ. of Arizona Sr.
David Kerian SS 42 Bishop Heelan HS (IA) (? commit)
Mitchell Morales SS 43 Wellington Community HS (? commit)
Matt Snyder 1B 44 Univ. of Mississippi Jr.
Ritchie Mirowski RHP 45 Oklahoma Baptist Univ. Sr.
Tyler Thompson OF 46 Univ. of Florida Jr.
Timothy Montgomery LHP 47 Rockmart HS (GA) (? commit)
Michael Bisenius OF 48 Wayne State College (NE) Jr.
Hunter Cole OF 49 Dorman HS (SC) (? commit)
Anthony Nix OF 50 Univ. of California-Riverside Sr.

Nats top picks verdict: fantastic!

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Anthony Rendon – What a draft day steal. Photo: Brett Coomer/Houston Chronicle via chron.com

I’ve been out of town the past few days (hence the late coming regular rotation reviews).  When, while driving home yesterday afternoon, a friend offered to text me the first 6 picks of the MLB draft I said absolutely.

Here’s a running set of thoughts (paraphrased from text messages).

1. (Pirates select Gerrit Cole): slight surprise here, but apparently Cole was consensus 1-1 pick in most drafts.

2. (Mariners select Danny Hultzen): Can’t believe Mariners skipped Rendon, and also surprised on the Hultzen pick.

3. (Diamondbacks take Trevor Bauer): Damn, I wanted Bauer.  Still can’t believe Rendon is falling.  O’s like HS guys…

4. (Orioles take Dylan Bundy).  hmmmm.  If Rendon is there at 6 the Nats have to take him. Surprising draft so far.  Where do you play him?  Move him to 2b, move Espinosa to short and trade Desmond.  Nats looking like they’re on Starling or Meyer now.

5. (Royals take Bubba Starling).  Damn.  Take Rendon!!!  What an amazing opportunity; this is the absolute consensus 1-1 in the 2011 draft for the past couple of years.

6. Nats take Anthony Rendon. Wow!

I still can’t quite believe that Rendon fell to us.  I thought for sure he was going #2 or #3 overall.

Then, to get Alex Meyers at #23 when we were reportedly considering him at #6 is an even bigger steal (if he’s worth what the Nats think he’s worth).  Bryan Goodwin at #32 seems to represent good value.  Here’s Byron Kerr‘s take.

We didn’t have a 2nd rounder (lost to Phillies for Werth), but Nats went very bold with Matt Purke in the 3rd.  Scouting pundits love the pick.  He’s hurt, but he was also a consensus top 10 pick at one point.  Its risky but bold.

For a full list of our picks, here’s the Draft Tracker at mlb.com.  Also, do a saved search on #Nats tag in twitter.

Written by Todd Boss

June 7th, 2011 at 2:26 pm