jeff mandel at Nationals Arm Race

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Lots of loogy talk in this off-season; Burnett's a hard man to replace. Photo: masnsports.com

Another edition of mlb.com’s Nationals beat reporter Bill Ladson’s Inbox, this time from 12/18/12.

As always, I write my response before reading his, and sometimes edit questions for clarity.

Q: Who will replace Sean Burnett as the lefty specialist in the bullpen?

Q: Is there any chance of the Nationals getting J.P. Howell to fill Burnett’s spot? Do you think the club needs him?

A: The Nats 2013 Loogy right now is likely to be minor league acquiree and former franchise 1st round pick Bill Bray. If he’s healthy, and if he makes the team. He’s the leader in the clubhouse right now, given the real lack of left handed relief in the farm system right now. Clicking on baseball-reference’s great franchise pitching depth chart, there’s really not a single viable option that pitched above AA still in the system (I like Patrick McCoy, who did decently in AA, but he wasn’t picked up in Rule 5, which implies to me that he’s definitely not MLB ready). Zach Duke seems set to be the Tom Gorzelanny replacement; the long-relief/spot-start/mop-up guy, and not necessarily the one-out guy. The team is still involved with rumors of signing J.P. Howell, and of course could still re-sign Michael Gonzalez, who did so wonderfully for is in 2012. However, lots of teams are in on lefty specialists right now and we may get out-bid. I’m partial to Bray; he is a Virginia guy, went to William & Mary, and is the cousin of a buddy of mine (who, when I saw him last weekend, promised to have access to tickets if Bray makes the team). Lets cross our fingers (stated completely selfishly).

Do we “need” Howell/Gonzalez? I don’t know if we “need” another lefty, but I’d like another lefty in case Bray isn’t ready to go. So I’d like to see another acquisition of someone for depth. I think the bullpen looks better with a second lefty late-innings guy. Ladson wrote almost exactly what I just wrote, naming all the same points.

Q: When looking at the 40-man roster, could you tell me what Yunesky Maya has to offer?

A: Maya still serves as last-ditch starter help, in case of a rash of injuries at the MLB level. Despite his poor performances in two prior MLB stints, he’d still be preferable to other career minor league veteran options we probably will have in AAA this year (thinking the likes of Roark, Broderick, or Mandel). His salary is guaranteed; we might as well keep him around as insurance. If you’re looking to complain about a 40-man spot being wasted, look no further than Carlos Rivero. Ladson calls the Maya signing Mike Rizzo’s worst, and says the same thing I do about starter insurance.

Q: Who do you think has more of an upside: Michael Morse or Adam LaRoche?

A: An oddly worded question; I’m not sure either guy truly has upside at this point in their careers. Michael Morse is in the last year of a contract, his sub-par defense has him outside of Rizzo’s vision of a pro-defense team, and there’s no guarantee that his 31 homer performance in 2011 wasn’t a complete one-off. Adam LaRoche is already in his decline years and any guaranteed money is considered a big risk. The best thing to do for the team would be to get LaRoche to return on as short of a guaranteed contract as he’ll take, and to flip Morse for some farm system depth (vastly depleted in the last 14 calendar months). But, life isn’t that simple. LaRoche has to be thinking for himself, and knows that this is the best and last time he’ll have to earn an 8-figure guaranteed deal. So he has to max things out. If someone else offers him 3 guaranteed years, he just has to take it. He’ll never get $13M/year offered to him again. Which would leave Morse in a contract year playing an easier defensive position (1B), and hopefully being 100% healthy he puts up another 2011 season. Ladson is a pro-LaRoche guy.

Q: Considering his last outing in the postseason against the Cardinals, is Drew Storen the Nationals’ closer entering Spring Training, or will he have to win the job?

A: One badly timed blow-up won’t cost Drew Storen his job; he earned it back after taking a back seat to Tyler Clippard all summer, and that’s how things will stand going into 2013. Clippard really struggled down the stretch in the role, and I cannot see any spring training competition at this point. One thing that wouldn’t surprise me would be a trade though; only one guy can close, but both Clippard and Storen are closer-quality arms. It could be lucrative to the team in terms of prospect depth to move one or the other to a team in need of a closer (and a team that values saves). This move may not occur until next off-season though, when Clippard’s salary expectations will be far higher than the team may be willing to stomach for a non-closer. Ladson says he expects Storen to be 100% and to get 30-35 saves.

Q: Burnett, who was a valuable asset in the bullpen, signed a two-year deal with the Angels. Couldn’t the Nationals have matched that kind of deal?

A: Yes they could have matched the Angel’s offer for Sean Burnett; it really wasn’t that much money. But, by saving a few million here and there suddenly you have enough to buy a front-line starter. That’s the right way to build a team in a fiscally responsible way. That being said, I think perhaps the team was surprised that Burnett “only” signed a 2 year deal, given Jeremy Affeldt’s 3 year contract for more money (Burnett’s deal has a 3rd year club option). But Rizzo belives in the same thing that I believe in; bullpen arms are a commodity, can be found for relatively little money and you can get great performance for your dollar. Think about Gonzalez last year; he was a minor league signing mid-season, and he posted a 132 ERA+ for us in 35 2/3 innings. I think Bray could absolutely be this year’s version of Gonzalez. Ladson has a good point: he thinks the Nats were slightly scared off by Burnett’s off -season elbow surgery and didn’t want to guarantee 2 years.

Q: Johnson’s favoritism drives me crazy, and I’m weary of reading about him trying to coax LaRoche into signing. Doesn’t favoritism bother the rest of the team, perhaps cause discord? And does the ballclub truly believe LaRoche can achieve the same numbers next year? I am dubious.

A: A great question; I’ve said in the past that Davey Johnson’s overt recruiting of LaRoche in the media has to be grating to Morse. If LaRoche signs elsewhere, I would absolutely believe there may be some discord in the clubhouse between Morse and Johnson that will need to be addressed. Other readers on this blog don’t necessarily believe this is the case, saying that Morse has to know that “its a business.” But how would you feel if your boss was overtly recruiting your replacement? I’d be pissed. Can LaRoche match his 2012 numbers in 2013? Sure. The odds are against him though. Its more likely to expect declines in production natural with his advancing age. Ladson says the players love Johnson and would never question him, but didn’t even mention Morse’s name.

Q: Do you think Ian Desmond can pull off another incredible year in 2013?

A: Sure! Do I think Ian Desmond could also regress at the plate to his pre 2012 numbers? Yes I do. I really have no idea what to expect out of guys like Desmond and Roger Bernadina, who both had career years and significantly improved their offense over their career norms. Are these one-time improvements? Meanwhile, a guy like Danny Espinosa is in the reverse situation; he’s regressing year to year, and needs to make a leap like Desmond made. Predictions? I think all three players stay roughly where they are, Espinosa starts losing ABs against lefties to Lombardozzi, and Rendon starts to force the team’s hand by tearing up AAA in early 2013. Ladson is really pro-Desmond, saying that he’ll go down as one of the great short-stops in baseball. That’s heavy praise.

Written by Todd Boss

December 20th, 2012 at 10:03 am

Nats 2012 Rule 5 Protection Analysis

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Is Nathan Karns a 40-man roster addition candidate ahead of the rule-5 draft? Photo Potomac Nationals official via milb.com

In part I on this topic yesterday, we talked about the Nats Rule 5 draft history. Today we’ll talk about Parts II and III: who the Nats may think about protecting ahead of this year’s Rule 5 draft, and what the team may be seeking if they participated and drafted a player or two in the Rule 5 draft themselves.

Part II: Nationals Rule-5 Draft Protection Candidates.

I kvetched a little bit about this topic in this space earlier this off-season, talking about the lack of roster space for the upcoming Rule 5 draft. I suspected that as a result of MLB deals given to guys like Anthony Rendon and Matthew Purke, in addition to the glut of guys we had to add mid season, we may be seeing some guys not getting protected this year that would be in other years. As of today, the Nats 40-man roster sits at 36 players with a bit of immediate room to spare (we could non-tender the likes of John Lannan, Tom Gorzelanny or Jesus Flores (speaking of Rule 5 additions) in a pinch, and I think Carlos Rivero may be imminently DFA’d), but we also have several 25-man roster spots departing via free agency that need to be filled, quickly filling back in those empty spots. So, perhaps the issue isn’t as bad as I thought it might be.

That being said, here’s a look at some of our Rule 5 eligible guys that may warrant protection. For “official” opinions here’s Mark Zuckerman’s Rule5 post, along with Adam Kilgore’s version of the same analysis. This is a combination of first-time eligible guys for the 2012 draft (mostly, guys who were college junior draftees from 2009 or high school draftees in 2008), prior year eligible guys who have suddenly worked their way onto the radar, and any International FA signing from 2008 or before (they are treated the same way as high school age draftees). Working off a list that Luke Erickson posted LAST november, along with his post on the same topic this week, and of course referencing the two great nats farm system resources maintained by “SpringfieldFan” (and formerly by Brian Oliver): the Nats Draft Tracker and the Nats Big Board, here’s some thoughts on protection candidates:

Stronger Candidates to protect

Nathan Karns: he finally had an injury-free season, and he put up numbers as expected when the team gave him an above-slot deal in 2009. He is older, and only projects as a AA starter in 2013, but he is an intriguing starter prospect for the Nats in 2014.
Destin Hood: I don’t think the team is ready to give up on the long-term 2008 2nd round project. His numbers have been increasing as he reportedly is learning the game better. I suspect the team protects him to protect their investment.
Danny Rosenbaum; the “Ace” of Harrisburg this year, and our furthest advanced legitimate starter prospect, Rosenbaum projects more like a Tommy Milone or John Lannan right now. I’d suspect that the team may protect him, thinking that someone could stash him as a loogy for a year. I’m not sure his ceiling is in the Nats rotation, but he could be a good trade candidate. He hit the DL late last year, which makes it slightly less likely that a team would take a flier on him, but his track record warrants his mention.
Patrick McCoy: he just repeated AA and despite already being Rule-5 eligible last year he improved on his numbers in 2012. Why protect him? Because this team needs a Loogy, and McCoy may be the leading lefty reliever in our upper-minor leagues.
Jeff Kobernus has put up consistent numbers his whole career, but still projects as a power-less middle infielder. Would the team protect him, thinking he has a chance to become the next Steve Lombardozzi? Would the team protect him just to protect their bonus money?

Weaker candidates to protect

Trevor Holder: a 3rd round pick roundly criticized at the time of being an underslot money saver, Holder had decent peripherals in high-A and AA this year. But, he doesn’t seem to project as the dominant right-hander he was in college and seems likely to top out as an org-arm. Despite his 3rd round pedigree, I don’t see a team taking a flier on him in rule-5.
Pat Lehman; a local guy (GWU), but despite having good numbers in AAA he remains a very common commodity; a right handed minor league reliever. Even if he’s drafted, it isn’t that great a loss because of the depth we already have at the position.
Paul Demny; despite making the AFL team this year, I don’t quite see Demny as being a draft risk. His ERA this year and in years past has been substandard.
Robert Gilliam; only really mentioned here since we just acquired him last off-season in the Gio Gonzalez trade and the team probably doesn’t want to lose him, but his 6.37 ERA in AA makes it extremely unlikely someone grabs him in the Rule 5.
Erik Davis: technically rule-5 eligible last year, he stepped up this year and put up pretty dominant AA numbers. As with Lehman, he’s a righty reliever in AA so the odds of his getting picked (or protected) seem slim.

Players not worth protecting for various Reasons

Now, there’s a bunch of “good names” that are Rule 5 eligible in our system but who are not listed here, including guys who toiled as high as AA last year. Anyone not listed here is probably not going to be missed, even if they are drafted. Plus, the likelihood of a decent pitcher prospect who has never played above A-ball being drafted in rule-5 is extemely slim. Most of the guys above are mentioned because of their capability to be “stashed” on a MLB roster. This includes:

last year’s departures Brad Meyers (coming off injury) and Erik Komatsu (clearly been passed on the organizational OF depth chart). Yes they got picked last year, but both got returned and I’d be surprised to see them picked again.
higher profile draft picks Josh Smoker and Jack McGeary: neither has advanced far enough in their careers to realistically stick with a MLB team.
Jeff Mandel may be an accomplished AAA pitcher, but I don’t think he’s anything more than that.
Rob Wort hasn’t advanced far enough up the chain to be considered.
Justin Bloxom could be a dark horse prospect next year, but only made it to AA the second half of last year.

Who would I protect, If I was the GM? I’d protect Karns, Hood, Rosenbaum and McCoy right now, filling the four current openings on the roster. If a move needs to be made (a FA signing or a trade), then you make one-for-one DFAs or non-tenders as needed. You have 40-man room; might as well use it. My order of protection is probably Karns, McCoy, Hood and Rosenbaum (from most important to least important to protect). Odds are that the team only opts to protect a couple of guys to give immediate roster flexibility heading into the winter meetings.

Part III: Might the Nats participate in the Rule-5 draft this year?

This year’s Rule 5 draft has some intrigue for the team; unlike last year, we have definite holes in the bullpen and on the roster which can be “more easily” filled via the Rule 5 draft. We need a lefty out of the bullpen, we need a backup middle infielder and we need a 5th starter. The odds of finding the latter in the rule 5 draft are very slim, but the odds of finding one of the first two are better. If you look at the last couple of Rule 5 drafts, nearly every player drafted is either a Pitcher or a Middle Infielder. Most teams carry a second backup middle infielder who gets very little playing time, ideal for “hiding” rule 5 draftees. And of course every bullpen has a “mop up” guy who pitches once or twice a week in low-leverage situations, also a great place to hide a rule-5 guy.

Besides, the “penalty” for drafting a guy and returning him is pretty small in baseball terms: $25,000 net (it costs $50,000 fee to select a player, then if you “offer” them back the original team has to refund $25,000 of that fee). So I’d be surprised honestly if the team didn’t roll the dice with at least a flier on either of the two needs mentioned above.

Personally, I’m not a big fan of the Rule 5 draft any longer. It was created as a way to liberate players who were stuck in farm systems behind established players (much the way that minor league free agency rules attempted to do the same), but now seems to be a cheap method of teams to get an extended tryout of players. I’ve now come to believe that the draft is not necessarily in the best interests of the players or the teams; just read below for the organizational transaction chaos that followed players. It also seems like a high number of players who get drafted in rule-5 immediately suffer season-ending injuries; coincidence or correlation? If you’re a rule-5 drafted arm, the drafting team knows you must perform at a MLB level to stay in the organization. Wouldn’t that imply there’s added pressure to compete, leading to overthrowing and arm injuries? Plus, teams that lose players often get them returned damaged and having lost a season of service time. I suppose players are the ones that are pro-Rule 5 draft, in that it immediately means a promotion to the 40-man roster, MLB service time and higher pay.

In the end, it makes for a good reason to write a 2,500 word blog post, and it may result in our team having new prospects to evaluate and dream about, so perhaps I protest too much.

Written by Todd Boss

November 20th, 2012 at 10:03 am

2013 Projected Pitching Staffs and Rotations; entire Nats system

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After finishing the evaluation of all 6 minor league pitching staffs, plus finally finishing (and posting yesterday) the MLB season review, here’s an entirely too-early projection of what the staffs and rotations may look like in 2013. This post assumes for the time being that all major and minor league FAs will opt out and we’ll be looking to fill spots. In these cases I’ll mark FAs to be as needed, though we very well may acquire these players in trade.

Note: some of these projections are slightly different from the original reviews posted in the per-level links, to account for moves, performances and roster moves that have already happened or seem set to happen this off-season. I’ve also made some slight adjustments in order to make the rotations and bullpens work at each level.

(notations: FA = free agent, MLFA == Minor League Free Agent)

Staff Review links: MLB is here, AAA is here, AA is here, High-A is here, Low-A is here, Short-A is here, GCL is here.

MLB Rotation: Strasburg, Gonzalez, Zimmermann, Detwiler, FA or other acquisition
MLB Bullpen: Clippard, Storen, Mattheus, Stammen, Garcia, a FA left-hander (possibly Burnett), a FA long-man (possibly Gorzelanny).
MLB notables Out of Organization: Jackson, Burnett, Gonzalez, Lannan, Wang

MLB Narrative: 4/5ths of the rotation are no-brainers. The 5th starter is the question mark for 2013. Do we re-sign Jackson and pay him more as a 5th starter than our big 3 guys? It doesn’t seem so after the team declined to give him a Qualifying Offer. Do we trade from depth (RH relief, middle infield) and find a 5th starter that way? Do we find a 5th starter from within? Meanwhile the bullpen is now full of hard throwing righties, but we could lose all 3 of our lefties. We may need to work the phones to retain these guys, or else we’re on the FA market. I think (despite my discussion about converting Garcia to a 5th starter) that he’ll remain in the bullpen and may bump Henry Rodriguez out of a job. One of our two closer-quality guys (Clippard and Storen) could be moved, cashing in on their value, which could open up a spot for a FA acquisition or a promotion from AAA.

Lots to be decided this off-season for Mike Rizzo, and this hasn’t even mentioned the dominos that will fall if/when the team makes a contract decision on Adam LaRoche.

AAA Rotation: Roark, Maya, Broderick, Meyers, Perry
AAA Bullpen: Tatusko (swingman), Arneson (swingman), Severino (loogy), Davis, Lehman, Nelo (closer), Martin, Mandel

AAA Narrative: We have a lot of long-serving minor leaguers here; as it stands now only a few of them are even 40-man roster guys (Maya, Perry, Garcia). The modern AAA roster construction is one of “spare parts” and prospects; do we have enough prospects to cover for injuries at the MLB level? Which one of these AAA starters would Nats fans feel comfortable filling in were one of our starters to go down with injury? Perhaps the Nats need to work on some starter depth via trade. Brad Meyers was just returned from the Yankees after a season-long DL stint after being Rule-5 drafted, and seems likely to slot right back into the AAA rotation when he’s healthy. Perry seems set to get a 4th option and should slot in here, looking to convert back to being a starter. Broderick is a former Rule-5 pick and was claimed from St. Louis, who dumped him late last season. I don’t think he’s anything more than a 4-A starter, but the organization seems to like him.

AA Rotation: Rosenbaum, Holder, Gilliam, Karns, Grace, Demny (swingman?) or MLFA? Solis if he’s healthy?
AA Bullpen: Frias, McCoy, Selik (maybe high-A again), Holland (setup), Wort (closer), VanAllen (loogy), Demmin (maybe high-A again), an org arm or two to fill in.

AA narrative: We have a couple of interesting candidates in the AA rotation to start, but what may be more interesting is to see whether the likes of Gilliam and Demny hold onto their spots with the talent ready to rise up out of high-A. Meanwhile, the bullpen has some interesting arms to keep an eye on. I forgot to mention Solis in the AA write-up but remembered him here. Two big questions for me in this AA rotation for 2013: 1) is Rosenbaum for real or is he going to sputter out before reaching MLB potential? And, 2) Is Nathan Karns ready to make the leap? I think Karns can quickly put his name in the mix to get promoted to AAA based on his performance in 2012.

High-A Rotation: Swynenberg, Ray, Meyer (maybe AA?), Schwartz (maybe low-A), Rauh (maybe low-A)
High-A Bullpen Competition: Barrett (maybe AA) , Testa, Smoker (loogy), Hill, Meza (perhaps a starter?), Holt, Hawkins, Bates, Mirowski
High-A bullpen Release candidates: Olbrychowski, McCatty, Applebee

High-A narrative: there’s too many arms for too few slots right now in all three of the A-levels. There’s a ton of release candidates, and some guys who could be higher or lower. I’d love to be a fly on the wall at the organizational meetings where all this evaluation is done. Meyer dominated High-A last year; could he start in AA? Barrett (by virtue of his AFL appearance) may also be AA material.

The same goes for the Low-A team below: I’ve got 5 logical rotation candidates, another 4 guys who make sense to be in the low-A rotation, and a slew of guys who seem to have earned their way to the low-A bullpen. But there’s only 7 slots to go around.

Low-A Rotation: Turnbull, Jordan, Purke (if healthy), Monar, Mooneyham
Low-A Rotation Competitors: Hansen, Lee (loogy if not), Encarnation, McGeary (if finally healthy)
Low-A Bullpen Competition: Anderson, Estevez, Dupra, McKenzie, Henke, Davis, Boyden, Benincasa, Hudgins, Dicherry, Mudron

We acknowledge the folly of trying to predict short-season staffs which will mostly be populated with 2013 draftees, especially under the new CBA that shortens negotiation times, making it more likely college seniors are drafted (who sign quickly with zero leverage) and get playing. That being said, there will definitely be guys who stay in extended spring training for a couple months and then get placed on these rosters along with new draftees. Here’s some guesses based on 2012 performances; all blank spots filled by 2013 draftees or by some of the guys who drop down from low-A.

Short-A Rotation: Baez, Pineyro
Short-A Bullpen: Smith (if not released), Fischer, Medina, Pena, Mendez

GCL blank spots filled by younger 2013 draftees (HS, Juco and college juniors/seniors from smaller schools) and by rising DSL grads.

GCL Rotation: Mieses (if not released), Barrientos, Vasquez
GCL Bullpen: Heredes

Written by Todd Boss

November 6th, 2012 at 9:16 am

Posted in Majors Pitching, Minor League Pitching

Tagged with aaron barrett, adalberto mieses, adam laroche, adam olbrychowski, alex meyer, atahualpa severino, ben hawkins, blake monar, blake schwarz, bobby hansen, brad meyers, brett mooneyham, brian broderick, brian dupra, brian rauh, cameron selik, christian garcia, christian meza, christopher mckenzie, cody davis, colin bates, corey vanallen, craig stammen, danny rosenbaum, daury vasquez, david fischer, dixon anderson, drew storen, edwin jackson, erik arneson, erik davis, gilberto mendez, gio gonzalez, gregory baez, gregory holt, hector nelo, henry rodriguez, inocencio heredes, ivan pineyro, jack mcgeary, jason smith, jeff mandel, joe testa, joel barrientos, jordan zimmermann, josh smoker, kevin dicherry, kylin turnbull, marcos frias, matt swyndenberg, matthew grace, matthew purke, michael boyden, mike mudron, mike rizzo, nathan karns, neil holland, nicholas lee, pat lehman, pat mccoy, paul applebee, paul demny, pedro encarnation, rafael martin, richie mirowski, rob wort, robbie ray, robert benincasa, robert gilliam, ronald pena, ross detwiler, ryan demmin, ryan mattheus, ryan perry, ryan tatusko, sammy solis, shane mccatty, silvio medina, stephen strasburg, tanner roark, taylor hill, taylor jordan, travis henke, trevor holder, tyler clippard, wil hudgins, wirkin estevez, yunesky maya

Nats 2012 Minor League Rotations: Guesses and Results

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Yunesky Maya led the Nats minor league starters for the 2nd straight summer. Photo Jim McGregor/Syracuse Chiefs via milb.com

I stumbled across this post, titled “Updated Minor League Rotation Predictions for 2012,” posted March 1st 2012, while looking for something else last week. And I thought to myself, hey now that I’ve finished the reviews of the minor league teams, lets see how I did predicting the rotations at the beginning of the season! I’ve also culled through the post-2011 season review posts for some preliminary guesses at the time.

(Note: I linked to NationalsProspects.com Luke Erickson’s guesses in the above link for another perspective in the 2012 spring training).

Players are bolded the first time they’re mentioned, but not afterwards.

AAA:

Sept 11 Guess: Maya, Milone, Stammen, Meyers, Peacock, Martis
Mar 12 Guess: Stammen, Maya, Arneson, Ballard, Buschmann
Opening Day Rotation: Atkins, Roark, Maya, Lannan and Duke
5 guys with the most starts in 2012: Maya, Roark, Duke, Lannan, Atkins

What happened? My prediction was way, way off; only Maya was the constant, but we knew that the second he proved he couldn’t get out MLB hitters last fall. The team traded two of its probable AAA starters (Peacock and Milone), lost a third to the Rule-5 draft (Meyers, who honestly we probably will get back once the Yankees are done screwing around with him) and a 4th to Minor League Free Agency (Martis). Meanwhile, who knew that Lannan wasn’t going to make the MLB opening day roster? Then, the team released Buschmann before he appeared in a game (he played 2012 in the Tampa Bay organization). Ballard was a starter, just not in AAA. Stammen, in a surprise to me, made the conversion from AAA starter in 2011 to MLB bullpen guy and had a great year. Lastly, instead of using more internal options like Roark the team signed two MLFAs in Duke and Atkins. I suppose I could have guessed that the team would go with Roark before Arneson as a starter (given Arneson’s rubber-armed handling in 2011). It just goes to show how much the creation of AAA teams has changed over the years.

AA:

Sept 11 Guess: Rosenbaum, Bronson, Demny, Olbrychowski, Solis
Mar 12 Guess: Rosenbaum, Bronson, Demny, Olbrychowski, Gilliam
Opening Day Rotation: Gilliam, Demny, Mandel, Rosenbaum and Ballard
5 guys with the most starts in 2012: Rosenbaum, Demny, Gilliam, Perry, Ballard/Pucetas

We were a bit closer here, getting 3 of the 5 guesses right. Sammy Solis would absolutely have been in this rotation if not for his Tommy John surgery; we’ll cross our fingers for him to return in 2013. When Solis went out, org-arm Mandel filled in. Evan Bronson is still with the organization on Milb.com but never threw an inning in 2012 and isn’t on the Big Board. I can’t find a single bit of google information indicating if he’s still with the team or not. Weird. Meanwhile I had just guessed too high for Olbrychowski; he spent most of 2012 as a starter in Potomac. Nobody could have guessed that we’d have traded Balester for Perry, that Perry would have stunk as a reliever, and then would show up in AA remaking himself as a starter. Ballard and Pucetas were MLFA pickups designed to fill holes in the system, though based on his prior experience I had Ballard pegged in the AAA rotation.

High-A:

Sept 11 Guess: Selik, Grace, Purke, Meyer, Hill, Karns
Mar 12 Guess: Selik, Grace, Purke, Meyer, Hill
Opening Day Rotation: Winters, Hansen, Olbrychowski, Grace and Swynenberg
5 guys with the most starts in 2012: Grace, Ray, Swynenberg, Olbrychowski, Karns

I was far off here as well; Purke got hurt, Meyer, Hill and Karns started lower than I would have guessed and Selik was converted to a reliever. I was right only on Grace (thought technically I thought Olbrychowski would be a starter, just not back in Potomac). Winters was a MLFA (the fifth such MLFA who has appeared as a primary starter in our top three levels; is this a statement of some sort?). As we’ll see in a moment, I was right about Hansen, just wrong about the level. Lastly Swynenberg came out of nowhere; he was effective in middle-relief in low-A; who knew he’d win a spot in the high-A rotation? I thought Ray would have done a few turns in low-A; instead he debuted in Potomac and struggled to make the jump. I lost faith in Karns between September 2011 and March 2012; as it turned out he was one of the 5 top starters (in terms of appearances) for the year while putting in a career season.

Low-A:

Sept 11 Guess: Hansen, Jordan, Cole, Ray, Estevez, McGeary
Mar 12 Guess: Turnbull, Hansen, Ray, McGeary, Karns
Opening Day Rotation: Estevez, Dupra/Karns, Meyer, Turnbull/Hill, McKenzie
5 guys with the most starts in 2012: Hill, Meyer, Turnbull, Estevez, Hansen

What happened? The team traded Cole. Jordan was injured more than we were led to believe in late 2011 (he had Tommy John surgery after the season was over). I predicted Hansen, Ray, Hill, Estevez, Meyers and Dupra would be starters, just got the levels wrong. My Mar 12 guesses were somewhat accurate in that we got Turnbull and Karns right. McGeary struggled through yet another injury filled season and may be nearing the end of his baseball career. I thought Estevez was getting squeezed out with all these high-profile starters rising up. I figured McKenzie had lost his starting shot; clearly his performance in 2012 should end his chances at getting another 2013 starting shot. I guess the lesson here is that it can be awful difficult to determine the difference between a High-, Low- and Short-A guy.

Short-A:

Sept 11 Guess: Manny Rodriguez, Dupra, Baez and two draft picks.
Mar 12 Guess: Manny Rodriguez, Dupra, Baez and two draft picks
Opening Day Rotation: Jordan/Medina, Baez, Monar, Encarnation, and Smith
5 guys with the most starts in 2012: Encarnation, Monar, Lee, Mooneyham, Fischer/Pineyro

My guess of 3 returners and 2 draft picks wasn’t entirely accurate; there wasn’t a single 2012 draft pick in the 2012 opening day rotation. We got Baez pegged correctly but the rest of the predictions were off. Manny Rodriguez, a converted infielder, spent the whole year on the 60-day DL. Dupra was in high-A. Meanwhile, a couple of guys dropping down from Low-A (Jordan, Encarnation) comprised the rotation at the beginning of the season. Monar was a repeater from 2011 who didn’t get a ton of innings last year. Eventually some 2012 draftees (Mooneyham, Fischer and others) got starts as expected, and helped drive Auburn to the playoffs.

GCL:

Sept 11 Guess: Mieses, King, Encarnation, Medina, Marcelino
Mar 12 Guess: Mieses repeating plus 4 guys from DSL and the 2012 draft.
Opening Day Rotation: Mieses, Barrientos, Pineyro, Vasquez, and Schwarz
5 guys with the most starts in 2012: Vasquez, Mieses, Hudgins, Selsor, Pineyro/Schwartz

Finally we got one right (well, right from Mar 12 guess anyway). The GCL rotation was Mieses, 3 DSL graduates and one 2012 draftee. Eventually more 2012 draftees (Hudgins, Selsor and others) consumed most of the rest of the starts. King disappeared from the rosters; he’s still in the organization but was never assigned this season. Injured? Disciplinary issues? There seems to be so much inconsistency in the DSL graduates that it almost isn’t worth tracking them until they appear in a higher level. Honestly, this is why I don’t really follow the Dominican Summer League teams either.

Phew; that’s a lot of Nats minor league starters. As it showed, its really, really difficult to predict this stuff from a computer in Northern Virginia, scouting the stat lines. But its really fun, so we’ll continue to do it .

Written by Todd Boss

September 21st, 2012 at 10:03 am

Posted in Minor League Pitching

Tagged with adalberto mieses, adam olbrychowski, aj cole, alex meyer, anthony marcelino, blake monar, blake schwarz, bobby hansen, brad meyers, brad peacock, brandon king, brett mooneyham, brian dupra, cameron selik, casey selsor, christopher mckenzie, collin balester, craig stammen, danny rosenbaum, daury vasquez, david fischer, erik arneson, evan bronson, gregory baez, ivan pineyro, jack mcgeary, jason smith, jeff mandel, joel barrientos, john lannan, kevin pucetas, kyle winters, kylin turnbull, luke erickson, manny rodriguez, matt swyndenberg, matthew buschmann, matthew grace, matthew purke, mike ballard, mitch atkins, nathan karns, nicholas lee, paul demny, pedro encarnation, robbie ray, robert gilliam, ryan perry, sammy solis, shairon martis, silvio medina, tanner roark, taylor hill, taylor jordan, tommy milone, wil hudgins, wirkin estevez, yunesky maya, zach duke

Harrisburg/AA Pitching Staff Year in Review; 2012

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Danny Rosenbaum led the Senators staff in 2012. Photo via wn.com Click here for the 2011 version of this post, for a look at how things were last year.

Here’s the AA version of the 2012 season pitching staff review. I’m going down the line from top to bottom; AAA is here. As with the other reviews, we’ll look at the main rotation, the substitute and spot starters, then focus on key relievers. Rehab appearances are not discussed.

Harrisburg starters. The rotation started the season with Gilliam, Demny, Mandel, Rosenbaum and Ballard. Lets see how the original rotation and other primary starters fared.

Robert Gilliam, the “forgotten man” in the mega Gio Gonalez trade in December, made the opening day start for Harrisburg but didn’t live up to his billing. He got 13 starts before going to the bullpen, and then eventually getting demoted to Potomac. Season AA numbers: 3-7, 6.38 ERA. Outlook for next season: The team likes him as a starter; i’m guessing they give him another whirl in the AA rotation.
Paul Demny took a step back in his progressive career with the Nats, going 6-8 with a 5.43 ERA in 23 starts before moving primarily to the bullpen at the end of the season. He’s still very young (just turned 23) but he’s finishing his 5th pro season and 2013 will be his “walk year.” Interestingly, the Nats named Demny one of their AFL participants, an odd selection based on his performance this season. Outlook for next season: as with Gilliam, I’d be surprised if Demny remains a starter. AA bullpen as a swingman unless the team needs a 5th starter.
Jeff Mandel started the year in the Harrisburg rotation and put in 11 middling starts before getting moved to AAA to replace an equally ineffective Mitch Atkins. This marked the third straight season he had started in AA and moved to AAA, a sure sign of an organizational arm who filled in where needed. Outlook for next season: see AAA post.
Danny Rosenbaum was supposed to be the Ace, the Star of this rotation. He was the highest-ranked prospect and was the Organization’s best starting pitching prospects. He didn’t really live up to his billing, going 8-10 with a 3.94 ERA and a 1.31 whip in 26 starts. He looked great his first 10 starts and then struggled the rest of the season. He turns 25 in the off-season and is Rule-5 Eligible. I think the team has to protect him. Outlook for next season: Added to 40-man roster ahead of the Rule-5 draft but back in AA to start 2013, with an eye on a mid-season promotion to AAA.
Mike Ballard was a Minor League Free Agent signed from Baltimore (after failing to make it in the Houston organization after 5 minor league seasons). You would have thought he’d have been in AAA but started the season in the AA rotation. After 12 up-and-down starts he got absolutely pounded on June 13th, hit the DL with “elbow discomfort” and has been there ever since. Final season stats: 1-5, 4.31 ERA. Outlook for next season: released. You hate to cut a guy with a season-ending injury, but business is business.
Ryan Perry, astutely acquired for Collin Balester (who failed to impress in Detroit and was DFA’d earlier this year) in spring training and he competed for the MLB bullpen. He featured briefly, was ineffective and was optioned to AAA. The team took a look at his repertoire and decided to try to convert him to a starter in AA. The results? Pretty good; a 2.84 ERA and 1.11 whip in 13 AA starts. Outlook for next season: here’s the problem with Perry; he’s out of options for 2013. He was added to a 40-man roster in April 2009, and burned options in 2009, 2011 and this year. So he has to either make the MLB club or be DFA’d at the end of spring training. So look for Perry to compete for the #5 starter job or be considered trade bait in the off-season.
Kevin Pucetas is another Minor League Free Agent who probably was too experienced for AA (as with Ballard); he spent the previous 3 seasons in the Pacific Coast League. For Harrisburg in 2012 he was excellent out of the pen early (posting a 1.59 era in 34 relief innings) and then was relatively mediocre in 12 starts (5-5 with a 4.81 ERA). You have to think he was merely filler for a gap in pitcher development in this system and will be looking for work elsewhere for 2013. Outlook for next season: with another organization.
Trevor Holder finally looked like he was putting things together early in Potomac, earned a mid-season promotion to Harrisburg and put up a 3.78 ERA in 10 starts (9 actual starts plus a 10th game where the “starter” went one inning on a rehab assignment). The knock on Holder was that he was a total signability pick in 2009 after the team spent big on Strasburg and Storen. It is good to see him putting some things together. Outlook for next season: AA rotation.
Ryan Tatusko got 8 starts in 27 appearances in a long-man/spot-starter/swingman role for the team. He was slightly better as a reliever versus a starter (his splits showing a 2.72 ERA with greater than a k/inning as a reliever, a 4.50 ERA in his 8 starts). I have always liked Tatusko (not the least reason of which is that he writes a blog) and was eager to see him contributed after he came over (with Tanner Roark) in the Cristian Guzman trade. But his time with the organization may be at an end; he just finished his 6th minor league season and he took a step back with the organization. Outlook for next season: I thought he’d have been in AAA by now; perhaps 2013 is the year. AAA swingman.
Other guys who got spot starts here and there (non-rehab):
- Brian Broderick: the team’s former rule-5 pick never made it with St. Louis, and when he was released the Nats picked him up. He got a handful of appearances down the stretch and finished the season with 3 starts. The team clearly likes the guy and seems willing to give him a chance. Outlook for next season: AAA rotation.
- Austin Bibens-Dirkx, he had a couple starts early before getting promoted up to AAA, where he probably should have started the season based on his experience. Outlook for next season: (as copied from the AAA post): with another organization.
- Adam Olbrychowski got called up to make the last start of the season. Outlook for next season: see High-A post.
- Of note: Chien-Ming Wang made no less than NINE rehab starts in AA (and fifteen overall minor league rehab starts). You can argue whether or not the organization was “bending” the DL/service time rules or not; either way I can’t see how Wang stays with this team for 2013 and beyond.

Harrisburg Relievers: taking a look at the relief corps at the end of the season. They used an awful lot of them.

Marcos Frias finishes his 6th pro season taking a step back from his 2011 numbers in high-A. On the year, a 4.82 ERA in 65 1/3 relief innings. He’s still very young, being a DSL graduate and yet to turn 24. Technically he’s rule-5 eligible but its hard to see a team taking a flier on a RH reliever without knock-out stuff. Outlook for next season: back in AA bullpen.
Erik Davis was generally excellent all season for Harrisburg, posting a 2.52 ERA in 64 1/3 relief innings. He earned a late season promotion to AAA. The former starter and trade bounty for Alberto Gonzalez technically is rule-5 eligible but the risk of losing him seems slight. Outlook for next season: AAA bullpen, looking to become the next Christian Garcia.
Patrick McCoy had a pretty good season out of the pen in Harrisburg; 7-3 with a 3.70 era in 58 1/3 innings. He was rule-5 eligible in 2011 but didn’t get picked up. Now he’s one year from being a Minor League Free Agent. Outlook for next season: AA or perhaps AAA bullpen, whoever needs a left hander.
Hector Nelo, who was released by Texas in April of 2011, finished the year with strong numbers as the team’s primary closer. He had a 2.73 era and 16 saves in 52 2/3s innings over 47 appearances. More importantly his K/9 rates really jumped from 2011. He’s the kind of big-time arm that Mike Rizzo loves (he can reportedly hit 100mph) and should get some looks going foward. He’s tied to the organization for one more season. Outlook for next season: the closer in AAA.
Rafael Martin was as unbelievably bad statistically in 2012 as he was good in 2011. How do you go from a 1.65 ERA across 2 organizations in 2011 to a 6.69 ERA in 2012? Perhaps the answer is either a late-season injury or fatigue; in his last four appearances in AA this season he gave up 11 earned runs; the 6 appearances before that just one. He’s no spring chicken though; he’s already 28 and is far far too old for AA at this point. Outlook for next season: bullpen in AAA and hoping for a rebound to 2011’s numbers.
Cameron Selik pitched 1/3 of an inning in AA before a season-ending injury. Outlook for next season: See High-A writeup.
Pat Lehman got promoted to AAA. Joe Testa got demoted to High-A. See those write-ups for outlooks.
Other Relievers who appeared in AA of note (not including Rehabbing MLBers): Outlook for next season for all of these guys seems the same: either continued “org guy” middle reliever or minor league FA in another organization.
- Zech Zinicola came back to the team after being rule-5 drafted in late 2009, and remains an organizational arm.
- Jimmy Barthmaier split time between AA and high-A. Org arm.
- Corey VanAllen was demoted down from AAA and then got hurt in July. Org arm, maybe a loogy in AA again.

Summary

Harrisburg struggled to find a good consistent group of starters. My guesses on what role these guys will play next season list too many guys getting dumped into the bullpen, so it may be interesting to see who gets another shot at starting in 2013. Unfortunately these injuries and inconsistencies cost the team a near-certain 2nd half playoff spot.

Written by Todd Boss

September 12th, 2012 at 11:47 am

Syracuse/AAA Pitching Staff Year in Review; 2012

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Free John Lannan! Photo Luis M. Alvarez/AP Click here for the 2011 version of this post.

This is the first of 6 organizational reviews of the pitching staffs of our various affiliates for the 2012 season. Unlike in 2011, I didn’t follow nearly as closely as I would have liked, so a lot of this is “analysis in arrears.” This is also a lot of “scouting the scoreline,” which isn’t always a fair way to evaluate pitchers, but a full year’s worth of work is also a big enough sample size to pass some judgement. I’ll try to evaluate pitchers at the level at which they spent the most time and will offer guesses for next season. Also, rehab appearances are not mentioned or given analysis in these posts. After reviewing all the staffs at each level, I’ll cull the above predictions into a summarized 2013 projected staff throughout the system.

Syracuse starters. The rotation started the season with Atkins, Roark, Maya, Lannan and Duke. This wasn’t exactly the way these guys would have lined up 1-5 (since Lannan was dumped to the AAA roster at the end of Spring Training unexpectedly) but this is the order in which they appeared to start the season. Lets talk about these 5 guys plus other prominent starters for the year.

Mitch Atkins: Syracuse’s opening day starter stuck in the rotation for most of the year, posting a 5.28 ERA while going 6-9 in 20 starts. He improved on his season numbers with a handful of relief appearances down the stretch, finishing the year with a combined ERA of 4.87 in 118 1/3 innings pitched. This minor league Free Agent pickup from Baltimore’s organization never gave the team a reason to consider calling him up, and probably is out the door in the off-season. Outlook for next season: Minor League Free Agent again, likely with another team.
Tanner Roark: He posted an ugly W/L of 6-17 on the year in 28 games (26 starts). He had a 4.39 ERA with a 1.41 whip in 147 2/3 innings on the year. He had pretty good K/9 numbers (130 Ks in those 147 innings) but also walked a goodly number of guys (47). He mostly got promoted after a similar season statistically in AA by virtue of the AAA depth being shredded by the Gio Gonzalez trade. Outlook for next season: He’s Rule-5 eligible but not yet a 6-year free agent. I guess its possible he gets picked up, but he’s not worth protecting. I think he gets one more season starting in AAA before reaching minor league free agency.
Yunesky Maya: After getting several shots at the major league level in 2011, Maya was buried in AAA for 2012. There he toiled a complete season as a starter, posting an 11-10 record in 28 starts. His era and whip were respectable (3.88 and 1.19 respectively), but his softer-tossing ways did not lead to the kind of swing and miss stuff craved by the current regime (just 89 Ks in 167 innings despite his ability to throw everything but the kitchen sink). He improved upon a rough early start to the season with a series of gems in August … but would routinely follow up a gem with a stinker. The big club has learned its lesson and left him off the expanded roster. Outlook for next season: Maya has just one more year on his 4yr/$8m contract, after which he’ll be cut loose to try his wares elsewhere. But he’ll be back toiling as AAA’s #1 starter in 2013.
John Lannan, as most Nats fans know, was the surprise cut from 2012’s major league team and basically served as injury insurance the entire year. He did not necessarily help his own cause in AAA, putting up mediocre lines of 9-11, 4.30 era, 1.44 whip and barely 5 k/9 despite a MLB-average pedigree. He did however perform excellently in two spot starts in the majors, setting himself up to be the Stephen Strasburg replacement in September’s stretch run. I’d cough up his poor performance to a season-long disappointment over his predicament; he’s got to be the highest paid guy in the minors (now that Kei Igawa’s contract expired). Outlook for next season: Lannan is just about a 100% guarantee to be non-tendered at the arbitration deadline and certainly looks to sign on with another club.
Zach Duke: Unlike Lannan, Duke took advantage of his time in AAA and DID regain some value; he posted a 15-5 record in 26 starts and 164 innings. The rangy left-hander was cut loose by Arizona after the 2011 season and did enough with Syracuse this year to earn a September call-up. Outlook for next season: Likely a free agent again and likely to use 2012’s performance as a springboard with another team looking for starter help.
Jeff Mandel, a long time Nats farm hand, started the year in AA to provide some starter depth before coming back to AAA and eventually replacing Atkins in the rotation. He was 6-3 with a 2.41 ERA in 11 Syracuse starts and filled in effectively down the stretch. Outlook for next season: He’s finishing up his 6th minor league season and didn’t get a 40-man call-up (at least not yet). He has one more year of team control before hitting minor league free agency. AAA rotation.
Other guys who got spot starts here and there (non-rehab):
- Erik Arneson, who continues his 2011 role of organizational swiss army knife, filling in with innings wherever possible. Outlook for next season: probably continues to be the Nats org guy; he’s still effective in AAA.
- Austin Bibens-Dirkx, who got a couple spot starts before getting released and eventually getting picked up by Colorado Springs (AAA affiliate of Colorado) to finish out the season. Outlook for next season: with another organization.
- Kevin Pucetas got called up from AA to make one spot-start. Outlook for next season: See the AA wrap up for more details.

Syracuse Relievers: taking a look at the relief corps at the end of the season.

Christian Garcia has turned into one of the Organization’s great stories of 2012, posting a 0.86 ERA in 52 1/3 innings between AA and AAA after being claimed off waivers from the Yankees in late 2011. This performance earned him a well-deserved call-up to the big club as rosters expanded. Additionally, he’ll be featured in the Arizona Fall League as one of our three pitcher representatives. Outlook for next season: He’s got a big arm, can bring it 97-98, and should be in the mix to be a middle-relief arm for the Nats bullpen in 2013. He likely replaces what the team sought in Brad Lidge and provides insurance against injury (or, in Cole Kimball’s case, failure to recover from injury).
Atahualpa Severino put in a decent season for Syracuse (2.81 ERA in 48 ip), but clearly he lost favor with the team. Instead of considering Severino (who was on the 40-man at the time), the Nats picked up Mike Gonzalez off waivers and promoted him up to the big club. Furthermore, Severino was DFA’d off the 40-man and passed through waivers without being claimed, never a good sign for a long-serving minor leaguer. Outlook for next season: Minor League Free Agent, though the fact that nobody claimed him when he got DFA’d means he’s likely an Org guy from here on out. But, LOOGYs live forever, and he can bring it, so maybe he gets a shot elsewhere. He’s clearly been passed over in this organization.
GWU grad Josh Wilkie was having a so-so start to his Syracuse season (his 4th year in the league) before getting suspended 50-games in June. [Editor Note: thanks to Mark L. for pointing this out]. Wilkie was summarily released after his suspension ended. Outlook for next season: with another organization.
Ryan Perry failed to make the big club out of spring, pitched briefly in Syracuse’ bullpen before getting sent to Harrisburg to re-make himself as a starter. Outlook for next season: see the AA version of this post.
Mike MacDougal made his “triumphant return” to the organization after washing out of Chicago’s AAA affiliate in Iowa. He struck out 14 and walked 8 in 10 innings for Syracuse (about what I expected); no word on how many WP he threw. Outlook for next season: minor league free agent again.
Erik Davis got 8 late season appearances after toiling mostly in AA and earning a promotion. Outlook for next season: see the AA version of this post.
Other Relievers who appeared in AAA of note (not including Rehabbing MLBers): Outlook for next season for all of these guys seems the same: either continued “org guy” middle reliever or minor league free agent in another organization.
- Hassan Pena improved on his 2011 stint in AAA but still looks like a middle-of-the-road minor league reliever. He was suspended at the end of the season for suspected “team rules violations,” a question mark for him going forward with the organization.
- GWU grad Pat Lehman continued his march up the organization, earning a quick promotion up to AAA and posting respectable numbers there.
- Corey VanAllen got demoted and then hurt.
- Rafael Martin also got demoted after a crummy start.
- 2012 Minor League free agent signings Jeff Fulchino and Waldis Joaquin didn’t throw a single inning in 2012, spending it entirely on the 7-day DL.

Summary

Syracuse should have had a better record than it ended up with (70-74) given the quality of the starters on this team (a long time MLB starter in Duke, a career sub 4.00 ERA starter in Lannan and a guy on an $8M contract in Maya). But at the same time, a combination of trades and a “gap” in organizational development led the team to have to fill a significant portion of this staff with minor league free agents, so it may have been inevitable that the team would have struggled.

Outlook for next season: S

Written by Todd Boss

September 10th, 2012 at 5:34 pm

Nats Rule 5 decisions

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Welcome to the 40-man roster this week, Mr. Norris. Photo Mark Zuckerman via Nationals Insider.com

Each year, major league teams face decisions on which of their minor league players require protection by placing them on the 40-man roster. The teeth of the rule5 draft have been removed somewhat from its original intent (designed to protect against wealthy and talent-rich teams from hoarding talent and preventing worthy major leaguers buried in the minor leagues) by virtue of a year’s extension on the time before players become eligible, and hence it is becoming rather rare that a rule-5 draftee actually sticks with the drafting team.

That being said, the Nats will have a number of decisions to make this week, when the deadline to add players to the 40-man roster ahead of December’s Rule 5 draft occurs. Last year they added Chris Marrero, Cole Kimball, and Adam Carr. In hindsight all three were probably worthy additions. Adam Carr was released in September (surprisingly; the team probably could have snuck him onto the 60-day DL to start, and perhaps he would have accepted an assignment to AAA by virtue of his injury). The team got lucky that Brad Meyers got hurt and, despite being rule5 eligible, was not selected as too high of a risk.

A number of the players that were clear locks to protect pre-rule 5 draft were called up during September roster expansion; so we don’t have to worry about whether or not the likes of Stephen Lombardozzi, Brad Peacock and Tommy Milone are going to be protected.

Using the Nats Draft Tracker xls as reference, here’s my thoughts on the 2011 rule5 draft;

Locks to Protect

Derek Norris; you never give up catcher depth.

Worth Protecting in my opinion

Tyler Moore; 2nd straight year of 30-homer production; could be a real hitting option for this team.
Brad Meyers (2010 eligible but now needing protection); he showed enough at AAA that someone would take a flier on him. He’s not being mentioned as a 2012 rotation candidate right now, but he’s a valuable arm worth keeping.
Erik Komatsu: trade bounty for Jerry Hairston. He’s another potential OF prospect that we wouldn’t want to give up. And not protecting him would mean we gave up Hairston for nothing.

Maybes but Doubtful

Jeff Mandel (2010 eligible but now needing protection). He’s the exact type of player that we really could lose, despite not being in any danger of getting drafted in 2010, by virtue of his MLB readiness and AAA experience.
Corey VanAllen: he’s been skipped over two drafts previously, but his up-and-coming performance plus his being left-handed may lead to someone taking a flier on him as a loogy.
Pat McCoy: for similar reasons to VanAllen, but slightly less so since he’s toiled in the lower-minors for a while.
Josh Smoker: nice pedigree, and obviously a valuable prospect to this team, but no experience above A-ball.

Not worth Protecting: Higley, Lozada, Guerrero, Curran, Demny, Souza, McGeary, McCoy, Arnold, and anyone else left that was 2010 rule5 or before (not too many of these guys).

Some of the guys in this list are obviously valuable prospects to this team (especially McGeary) but have zero shot of being drafted in the major league phase of the Rule 5 draft, by virtue of having no experience above A ball.

Luckily for the team, adding four names to the 40-man roster won’t require any other moves. Once all 8 of our FAs were removed and the 60-day DL guys added back in, we stand at 35/40 on the 40-man.

Mark Zuckerman posted his own analysis on this topic today 11/15, and guessed Norris, Moore, Smoker and/or Komatsu.

Written by Todd Boss

November 15th, 2011 at 1:21 pm

Posted in Minor League Pitching, Nats in General

Tagged with adam carr, brad meyers, brad peacock, chris marrero, cole kimball, corey vanallen, derek norris, erik komatsu, jack mcgeary, jeff mandel, josh smoker, mark zuckerman, pat mccoy, steve lombardozzi, tommy milone, tyler moore

Harrisburg/AA Pitching Staff year in Review

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Brad Peacock was your AA pitcher of the year, and earned two subsequent promotions in 2011. Photo via bleacherreport.com

(2nd in a series. See yesterday’s post for Syracuse).

The Harrisburg rotation started the year with two starlets, a couple question marks and a few guys who had MLB experience (either in the rotation or on the DL, waiting to get their shot). It was interesting to see a rotation in AA that was (on average) younger and had more MLB time than the team’s AAA roster, but that’s how this season played out. No less than twenty guys got “starts” for the AA team this year, including a number of rehab starts and even more “passing through” starts for guys on their way out of the organization.

Here’s the status of the Harrisburg pitching staff at the end of the season (ages are as of 9/30/11)

Starters: Roark 24, Arneson 27, Martis 24, OPerez(L) 30, Rosenbaum (L) 23
Bullpen: Lehman 24, VanAllen (L) 27, Barthmaier 27, McCoy (L) 23, RMartin 27, HPena 26
Spot starts: CMartinez 27
Promotions: Mandel, Meyers, Mattheus, Tatusko, Zinicola, Peacock, Mock (post rehab)
up-and-back: Arneson, Pena, CMartinez
demotions: RMartin (from last year), EDavis
DL: Atilano 26
Cut/released post Spring or mid-season: Leatherman, Novoa, Spradlin, Dials, CJames, Alaniz, Chico
Missing: JJones 29

Harrisburg starters. The rotation started the season with Meyers, Tatusko, Atilano, Peacock and Erik Davis. Here’s how these guys and the rest of the starters fared in 2011.

Brad Meyers got the season opening start and it was clear after 6 starts he was ready to be promoted, going 3-2 with a 2.48 era and a sub 1.00 whip. Outlook for next season: (from AAA post): Begins 2012 in AAA, competes for MLB #5 starter in spring.
Ryan Tatusko was mediocre at best in a AA starting role, putting up a 5.94 era in 12 appearances (9 starts) before being dumped to the bullpen when Oliver Perez was ready to go. His last couple of appearances were decent though, and he got promoted to fill an opening in AAA’s bullpen, where he played most of the season. Outlook for next season: (from AAA post): Org guy, in AAA’s bullpen or in another organization.
Luis Atilano only got 2 starts in and was hammered before hitting the DL, where he remained the rest of the season. He’s 26 this year and was DFA’d, cleared waivers and accepted his assignment, indicating that he’s probably not in the future plans of the team. Outlook for next season: I’m guessing he’s given his release and will be a minor league free agent.
Brad Peacock tore up AA, putting up a 10-2 record with 129 Ks in just 98 IP. Most questioned why he was left to languish in AA for so long, clearly having earned a promotion. But he’s young (only 23 this year) and there was not really a hole in the AAA rotation for him until Detwiler’s promotion opened one up. Outlook for next season: (from AAA post): Loses out on #5 starter competition, starts in AAA, possibly in MLB bullpen b/c of his arm.
Erik Davis was obtained in trade for disgruntled utility infielder Alberto Gonzalez, had a bunch of starts, a DL stint, and then a string of awful starts that got him demoted to Potomac (where he didn’t fare much better). Final AA line: 5-7, 4.79 era, 1.61 whip and 93/41 k/bb in 94 ip. He’s got great K/9 but not much else. Outlook for next season: there’s not much use for a 25yr old right-hander who can’t cut it in High-A, though his precipitous drop in stats from 2010 to 2011 is cause for hope that this was an aberration year. I’ll guess he features in the AA bullpen in 2012.
Erik Arneson started the year with 3 pretty decent AAA starts, then suddenly was in the AA bullpen. This was his third year repeating the AA level with this franchise, clearly indicating that the team views him as an organizational guy. Despite his all-star game appearance and stellar 2011 numbers in AA (8-4, 2.43 era, 1.10 whip in 16 starts and 26 appearances), he’s 27 this year and clearly isn’t going anywhere. Outlook for next season: Org Guy; either a minor league FA or perhaps floating between our AAA and AA levels as he did this year.
Shairon Martis is an interesting case; he was in the Nats starting rotation in 2009, and by the spring of 2011 he had successfully passed through waivers and was on our AA squad despite only being 24. Not surprisingly, he did well, posting a 8-6 record, a 3.05 era, a 1.22 whip, had 146/39 k/bb in 133 ip and threw a 7-inning no-hitter. And this all proved, what exactly? As I said over and again during the season’s rotation reviews, Martis getting out AA hitters with ease shows us nothing that we didn’t already know. We need to see him at least at the AAA level to see if he’s ever going to be the pitcher that showed so much promise when he was promoted to the majors in 2008 as a 21-yr old. There was word/rumors during spring training that the team wasn’t pleased with his conditioning or his work efforts, perhaps contributing to his being essentially in the franchise “doghouse.” Outlook for next season: He should be in the AAA rotation, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he was stuck in extended spring training by virtue of a numbers issue.
Tanner Roark got nearly a full season of starts in the AA rotation and didn’t have the greatest season, In 21 starts he posted a 9-9 record, 4.69 era, 1.40 whip and pedestrian K/9 rates. He’s younger than his trade mate (Tatusko, both received for Cristian Guzman in mid-2010) so the team will have a bit more patience. Outlook for next season: I think his starting days are done; i’d think he’ll be converted to a reliever and start in the AA bullpen.
Oliver Perez was picked up in a relatively high-profile signing after he was unceremoniously released (with $12M still owed on his 2011 contract) by the Mets, who had tired of his poor performances on the mound. The Nats, surprisingly in my opinion, installed him as a starter in AA and left him there the entire season. Outside of a quick DL stint he mostly pitched decently, posting a 3-5 record in 15 starts, with a 3.09 Era and a 1.39 whip. But, as with Martis above, what exactly did we learn from this? An experienced MLB veteran *should* be getting AA guys out with regularity. With the troubles the team had with their loogy (see Slaten, Doug’s inherited runners and WHIP rate on the season), I’m surprised they didn’t try to feature Perez as a lefty out of the bullpen. Now, with the season over I suppose the team has learned that Perez is now just a mediocre AA starter. Outlook for next season: Perez will be a FA and probably goes elsewhere to continue his career on a minor league deal, looking to regain a starting job somewhere in the MLB.
Denny Rosenbaum got a late season call-up after pitching well in high-A all season and continued his excellent season in AA. His stats for Harrisburg: 3-1, 2.29 era and a sub 1.00 whip in 6 starts. These numbers were slightly better than what he posted in 20 Potomac games, and he seems to be featuring as a Tom Milone-esque crafty left-hander who is riding under the radar. Outlook for next season: at 23 he’s still pretty young and will be in the AA rotation with a mind to get promoted after a few starts in the same way Meyers or Peacock earned their way up this year.
Other guys who got spot starts here and there (non-rehab): Jimmy Barthmaier got a couple spot starts but worked mostly out of the bullpen, sporting a high ERA but good k/9 rates. Same for journeyman Carlos Martinez, albeit without the good K/9 rates. Evan Bronson put in a spot start during a brief call up to provide cover for the team during one of their many rain-out induced double headers. Outlook for next season: Barthmaier and Martinez are org guys and may or may not return. We’ll cover Bronson in the high-A post, where he spent most of the season.

Harrisburg Relievers: taking a look at the relief corps at the end of the season.

Rafael Martin and Hassan Pena split the closing duties and both put up great numbers. Pena was a AAA demotion while Martin seems to be a bit old for the level. Despite this, Martin is representing the franchise in the Arizona Fall League, so perhaps he’ll feature prominently next year. Outlook for next season: both guys seem set to be part of the AAA bullpen.
Pat Lehman and Corey VanAllen both pitched pretty well; Lehman earned a mid-season promotion and put up a 3.71 era in AA, earning a trip to the AFL as well. VanAllen is older, lefty and had a great K/9 ratio. Outlook for next season: Lehman stays in the AA pen to start, while VanAllen moves up to AAA as a possible loogy.
Pat McCoy struggled in AA, putting up a 4.78 era in 52 innings of work, but he’s also very young and had a 9.0 K/9 rate. Outlook for next season: he’ll start again in AA bullpen, looking to gain on his experiences in 2011.
The Rest not already mentioned; Barthmaier, Martinez already covered above.

Other pitchers who appeared in AA of note (not including Rehabbing MLBers): Ryan Mattheus started the season in AA and earned two promotions, ending up with good MLB numbers. He’ll make the 2012 bullpen as long as he stays healthy. Matt Chico was awful in 10 appearances before being demoted/DL’d and eventually released. Zech Zinicola and Jeff Mandel started in AA before both being promoted to AAA, where they worked the bulk of the season. Garrett Mock put in two awful rehab starts en route to his own release.

http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=572095

Written by Todd Boss

September 20th, 2011 at 4:22 pm

Syracuse/AAA Pitching Staff Year in Review

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Tom Milone was your AAA pitching star of 2011. Photo Tom Priddy/Four Seam Images via Milb.com

(editors note before we begin; I’m sure my faithful readers noted that I abandoned the Minor League Rotation Review posts right after the 4th of July. That was right around the same date I put in notice and began the process of switching consulting engagements. Free time and post-work free time suddenly evaporated and something had to give. Paying gigs before volunteer ones unfortunately.)

That being said, I did maintain the good/soso/bad all the way through the season, and did my best to keep up with the various reliever movements (my interest is mostly with the starters in the system). Now that the regular seasons are over, I’ll do a team-by-team review of the pitchers, the moves and where guys may/should start in 2012. Ideally this set of reviews should start with the MLB roster, but since the minor leagues are done, I’ll hit them up first.

Syracuse’s rotation started the year with two guys who some thought could have made the MLB roster, two guys who were closer to the “organizational guy” title than a spot on the 25-man, and a relatively young up and comer who had been cruising up the organization under the radar. By the end of the year it held three of our better starting pitcher prospects to go with two guys who are not long for the organization.

Here’s the status of the Syracuse pitching staff at the end of the season (ages are as of 9/30/11)

Rotation: Maya 30, Stammen 27, Meyers 26, Peacock 23, JD Martin 28
Bullpen: Mandel 26, Wilkie 27, Severino(L) 26, Zinicola 26, CGarcia 26, Hyde (L) 26
Spot starter: Tatusko 26
Promotions: Kimball 26, Mattheus 27, Detwiler 25, Milone(L) 24, Balester 25
9/1 promotions: Maya, Stammen, Peacock, Severino
up-and-back: Stammen, Maya, Severino
demotions: Martis (from last year), Chico, Mock, Arneson, Bronson (spot start), CMartinez
cut/released from 2010 or this year: Meredith, Kown, Bergmann, Bisenius, Romero (L) (opted out), Carr 27, Mock 28
missing: Villone 41

Syracuse starters. The rotation started the season with Maya, Detwiler, Mock, Milone and Stammen, with JD Martin as the season-long spot starter.

Yuniesky Maya: failed to make the team out of spring training, was the opening day starter in Syracuse, but struggled for long parts of the season. Got a call-up and did not impress in Washington and sulked up on his return. Finished the year 4-9, 5.00 era, 1.24 whip and 98/28 k/bb ratio in 129 2/3 innings. Outlook for next season: He probably can’t make the MLB rotation again, and probably returns to AAA for 2012. His fastball was never as good as advertised and he isn’t as good as countryman Livan Hernandez at getting guys out with control and guile. At this point, this signing looks like a failure.
Ross Detwiler: Promoted mid-season just before the-all star break and has pitched considerably better in the majors than he did in AAA. In fact, there was some debate at the time of his promotion whether he was the deserving pitcher to come up. Final AAA numbers: 6-6, 4.53 era 1.49 whip, 63/32 k/bb in 87 1/3 innings. Outlook for next season: He’s officially out of options and can’t be assigned to AAA without passing through waivers. He WILL make the 2012 MLB team, likely as a #5 starter with an eye towards moving to the bullpen if he falters.
Garrett Mock: started strong, then had two incredibly bad outings and went on the DL. His rehab travels around the low minors became some what of a joke, but when he returned he failed to impress, and was DFA’d in early September to make way for 9/1 callups to the majors. Final AAA line: 0-3, 6.28 era, 1.67 whip, 32/24 k/bb in 28 innings. His stats at all levels are worse. Outlook for next season: there are plenty of people who openly questioned why Mock occupied a 40-man spot for so long. I’m guessing he picks up with another team and tries to start fresh with a new organization for 2012.
Tom Milone: posted his third straight 12-win season in successive levels and earned a pre-9/1 call up. He’s young, he’s lefty, and he’s got impeccable control. Final AAA numbers: 12-6, 3.22 era, 1.03 whip and 155/16 k/bb in 148 1/3 innings. Another great season for the Nats 2010 minor league pitcher of the year, an award he is in the running for again in 2011. Outlook for next season: He has 3-4 more September starts to audition for next year’s rotation. The big question with Milone is whether his 89-90mph fastball and control will be enough in the majors. I’m predicting he falls victim to a numbers/options status game and starts next year in AAA.
Craig Stammen: all around nice guy never once featured in the team’s plans this year, officially crossing over from starter potential to organizational guy in 2011. He put together a decent season, tailing off in the end to sully his overall numbers, but was never threatening to get a call-up or another shot in the Nats rotation. AAA stats: 10-7, 4.75 era, 1.43 whip, and 127/40 k/bb in 142 innings. Outlook for next season: He becomes 2012’s version of JD Martin, the AAA-bound starter and innings eater. I think he’ll stay on the 40-man because he does have value, and has one option left, but after 2012 he’s a DFA candidate. Too bad, because he’s a good-guy and deserves better.
Brad Meyers: earned one of the first promotions of the season after recovering from injury and dominating in his first few AA starts. He struggled upon first arriving at AAA, hit the DL briefly, but finished strong. Final AAA numbers: 6-5, 3.48 era, 1.31 whip and 74/15 k/bb in 95 ip. Outlook for next season: I think Meyers gets added to the 40-man roster ahead of the Rule-5 draft for protection, but he is at least 7th in the starter pecking order (Strasburg, Zimmermann, Lannan, Detwiler, Peacock, and Milone) right now, so he starts in AAA.
Brad Peacock: Peacock absolutely dominated AA, to the point where it was long past the time to promote him when he finally was moved to AAA. He had two rough starts but more than a few great ones, and finished AAA with a 5-1, 3.19 era, 1.25 whip and 48/24 k/bb in 48 innings. On the season his minor league numbers were fantastic and earned him the organization’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year; 15-3, 2.39 era, 177/47 k/bb in 146 2/3 total innings. Outlook for next season: He’s very young (only 23) and certainly could use another year of seasoning in AAA. He may end up competing for the #5 rotation spot with Milone, unless a new starters comes in via trade or FA. On the other hand, if he doesn’t master his secondary pitches he’ll be destined for the bullpen, and Rizzo loves hard-throwers in the pen, so I could see him featuring as a righty out of the bullpen next season. We’ll see.
JD Martin: Outrighted before the season and then signed a minor-league deal, Martin was AAA’s long man/spot starter. He ended up with 14 starts and pedestrian numbers on the season: 3-7, 3.93 era in 30 appearances. His fate was sealed in January when he was outrighted and nobody else sniffed; he’s a soft-throwing righty who is a good AAA pitcher until his spot is needed. Outlook for next season: he could be back in the same role he was in this year, unless a numbers game forces his release.
Other guys who got spot starts here and there (non-rehab): Erik Arneson (started in AAA then was dumped to AA despite 3 decent starts. See the AA post) and Ryan Tatusko (pitched mostly in relief with 2 AAA spot starts after a mid-season promotion). See the AA post for thoughts on Arneson and below for Tatusko.

Syracuse Relievers: taking a look at the relief corps at the end of the season.

Relievers Cole Kimball, Ryan Mattheus and Collin Balester were each promoted up at various points during the season and each performed pretty well at the MLB level. Outlook for next season: Kimball may start 2012 on the DL post surgery. Mattheus should earn a bullpen spot after pitching well. Balester’s spot is more tenuous; he’ll be out of options and has not really impressed at either level in 2011. I’m guessing he’ll lose out in a long man competition to someone like Tom Gorzelanny and get a DFA at the end of spring training 2012.
Local Favorite Josh Wilkie served as the AAA closer and put up good numbers; 3.13 era, 1.36 whip, 57/21 k/bb in 60 1/3 innings pitched. Outlook for next season: He’ll get a spring training invite but seems destined to return to AAA to wait for injuries or an opportunity.
Athualpa Severino got a 9/1 call up and finally featured in a MLB game, showcasing a big fastball for a little guy. Outlook for next season: He’s a little old for a prospect (27) but could feature as a LOOGY in 2012, especially since the team is so thin on that particular speciality.
Everyone else (Mandel 26, Zinicola 26, CGarcia 26, Hyde (L) 26, Tatusko 26) in the AAA bullpen seems destined to be organizational guys, unfortunately. Jeff Mandel passed through waivers and toiled decently this year. Zech Zinicola was a rule-5 draftee who got returned and put up great numbers, but seems to be a AAA ceiling guy. Christian Garcia didn’t have great numbers in the Yankees organization but the team took a flyer on him. Lee Hyde has already passed through waivers successfully and was more or less awful in 2011. Lastly Ryan Tatusko regressed badly in 2011 after a stellar 2010. He was demoted to the bullpen and pitched mostly in relief for AAA this year, getting a couple of spot starts that he was just “soso” in. Outlook for next season: All these guys will be back in AAA or with another organization, trying to keep the dream alive.

Other pitchers who appeared in AAA of note (not including Rehabbing MLBers): Hassan Pena pitched 7 horrible innings and was demoted. Matt Chico was similarly bad and was DL’d/demoted before getting released. Philly castoff JC Romero had 16 appearances and pitched well before opting out of his contract because the team hadn’t promoted him (a surprise, given our loogy struggles this year). A year after Adam Carr was put on the 40-man to protect him, he was flat-out released after an injury riddled season (lets hope the team re-signs him and he gets another shot). Both Evan Bronson and Carlos Martinez put in brief AAA outings before returning to their normal teams. Lastly I put in Ron Villone as “missing” because he was in our Spring Training camp but never made it onto any roster. We didn’t necessarily hear any announcement, but I suspect he retired after not making the team out of camp.

After reviewing all the staffs at each level, I’ll cull the above predictions into a summarized 2012 projected staff throughout the system.

Written by Todd Boss

September 19th, 2011 at 10:03 am

Nationals Arm Race

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Nats 2012 Minor League Rotations: Guesses and Results

Harrisburg/AA Pitching Staff Year in Review; 2012

Syracuse/AAA Pitching Staff Year in Review; 2012

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