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From Nats to Oblivion: updated for 2012 team

Lidge is one of the newest members of the Nats-to-Oblivion club. Photo unknown via baseballasreligion blog

Several years ago (November 2010) Mark Zuckerman posted a fascinating analysis he titled “From Nats to Oblivion.” It chronicled the astoundingly high number of players that the early incarnations of the Nats were using who, once the Nats released them, never again appeared on a MLB roster. I thought the analysis was so interesting that I kept up the same data and have been keeping it up-to-date with the whereabouts of Nats-to-Oblivion candidates ever since. So with apologies to Mark for stealing his idea, here’s an interesting visit to the Nats darker past.

Now, it is nearly impossible for a team to field an entire year’s worth of players who fall into this “Oblivion” category. Every MLB team has guys playing out the string or near retirement, and every MLB team calls up guys through out the season from the minors who eventually show themselves as unable to compete on the MLB level and who never make it back. Our 2011 team (sitting at 13.6% but likely to eventually be lower) is about as close to a 10% level as we may get; roughly 4 or 5 guys who give you at bats or innings in a given year probably won’t ever play again.

For your reminiscing pleasure, here is the summary data updated to the 2012 team.

2012: 24 position, 19 pitchers, 43 total. 8/43 = 18.6% candidate ratio
2011: 20 position, 24 pitchers, 44 total. 6/44 = 13.6% candidate ratio
2010: 20 position, 26 pitchers, 46 total. 12/46 = 26.0% never appeared again
2009: 25 position, 30 pitchers, 55 total. 11/55 = 20% never appeared again
2008: 25 position, 25 pitchers, 50 total. 8/50 = 16% never appeared again
2007: 21 position, 26 pitchers, 47 total. 12/47 = 25.5% never appeared again
2006: 28 position, 29 pitchers, 57 total. 20/57 = 35% never appeared again
2005: 30 position, 25 pitchers, 55 total. 16/55 = 29% never appeared again

Look at the 2006 season; 35% of the players who played for the team that year never played another Major League game. That’s still astounding to me. Read on for a detailed look back at some of the very bad players that have put in significant time for this team.

2012 (8 candidates)

Total Players used: 24 position, 19 pitchers, 43 total. 8/43 = 18.6% candidate ratio right now

Candidates

Brad Lidge: Retiring post 2012
Jesus Flores; signed ML deal with Los Angeles Dodgers for 2013
Cesar Izturis; signed ML deal with Cincinnati for 2013
Brett Carroll: signed ML deal w/ Pittsburgh for 2013
Chien-Ming Wang: signed ML deal w/ New York Yankees for 2013 late
Ryan Perry: Wash AAA 2013
Corey Brown: Wash AAA 2013
Carlos Maldonado: Wash AAA 2013

I think its clear that at least a few of these guys are going to re-appear on a MLB roster at some point, so this “candidate ratio” is likely to be lowered.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Brad Lidge, who gave it one last shot and failed spectacularly. When you lose your stuff, its gone and gone fast. I’ll readily admit I thought the signing was a great one but it just didn’t work out. I really hoped that Lidge would be a servicable 7th inning guy and mentor to Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard, being one of the great closers of his day. It didn’t work out that way.

2011 (6 candidates)

Total Players used: 20 position, 24 pitchers, 44 total. 6/44 = 13.6% candidate ratio right now…

Candidates

Ivan Rodriguez – retired after 2011
Matt Stairs — retired after 2011
Alex Cora — never signed in 2012
Cole Kimball — Nats 60-day DL in 2012, XST in 2013
Brian Broderick — Stl AAA, waived now Nats AAA in 2012, AA in 2013
Atahualpa Severino — Nats AAA, DFA’d off 40-man in 2012, signed w/ KC for 2013

As with the 2012 candidates, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this list get lowered slightly. A couple of these guys remain in the system and Cole Kimball remains on the 40-man. Atahualpa Severino could see time if KC’s loogy situation falls apart.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Matt Stairs: He made the 2011 roster despite having almost no defensive capabilities and, as it soon became evident, almost no remaining abilities at the plate. He somehow hung onto his roster spot until August 1st despite having just one extra base hit in 74 at-bats on the year. I remember one game in particular; we were at the stadium going against the hated Phillies and they left Roy Halladay in to attempt to finish a shutout with a 3-0 lead (Game was on 4/13/11). Nats rally, score 2 runs to make it 3-2. Stairs comes up pinch hitting for Jerry Hairston with guys on 1st and 2nd with one out; he promptly watches three straight fastballs go right down the middle of the plate without moving his bat. I’ve never been so p*ssed at a player at the ball-park. Ivan Rodriguez then promptly struck out on 3 pitches as well, looking strike 3 into the mitt and then arguing vehimently with the ump over the game-ending call which gave Halladay the complete game victory.

2010 (12 players)

Total Players used: 20 position, 26 pitchers, 46 total. 12/46 = 26.0% never appeared again

Players:

Willy Taveras; played AAA for Col in 2011, retired prior to 2012
Kevin Mench; retired after 2010
Jamie Burke; retired after 2010
Luis Atilano: in CIN org, AAA in 2012, not signed by Apr 2013
Scott Olsen; in CWS org, AAA 2012, Not signed by Apr 2013
JD Martin; in MIA org AAA 2012, in TB AAA 2013
Tyler Walker; indy league 2011, no stats for 2012
Jesse English; indy league 2011, 2012. Mexican League 2013
Matt Chico; indy league 2012, not signed Apr 2013
Joe Bisenius; in Mexico 2011-12, no signed Apr 2013
Garrett Mock: Houston AAA 2012, AZ AAA for 2013
Jason Bergmann: indy 2011, Col AAA 2012, Indy again in 2013

I had to recently remove a couple of names from this list after they re-appeared on 2013 MLB rosters (example: Justin Maxwell who was Houston’s opening day center fielder. That ought to tell you all you need to know about Houston’s team this year).

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Jamie Burke: The 2009 Nats were so thin at Catcher by the end of the season that we literally bought a spare catcher in Burke from Seattle so we could have some coverage at the end of the season. Burke re-signed on for 2010 and appeared in exactly one MLB game. He was released after the season and retired.

2009 (11 players)

Total Players used: 25 position, 30 pitchers, 55 total. 11/55 = 20% never appeared again

Players:

Elijah Dukes: released and never picked up for 2010. Arrested in 2011, 2012, out of baseball.
Alex Cintron; playing in Mexico 2012
Jorge Padilla; in SD org, AAA in 2012
Shairon Martis: in Min org, AAA 2012, Minnesota’s AAA 2013
Ron Villone, 2011 playing indy ball, retired prior to 2012
Julian Tavarez; retired after 2009
Logan Kensing; in Pits org, AAA 2012, Col AAA 2013
Zack Segovia; in Det org AA in 2012, not signed Apr 2013
Mike Hinckley: Tor org in 2011, retired prior to 2012
Steven Shell; KC org in 2011, retired prior to 2012
Victor Garate; MIL org and Indy ball in 2012, Mexican league 2013

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Ron Villone, who proved that a crafty lefty with a halfway decent fastball can have a long career in this game. He had 63 appearances at age 39 for the 2009 Nats and got re-signed for 2010. He didn’t make the team though, labored in Syracuse the whole season and was released. Despite being 41 years old, he headed to Indy ball for one last shot but washed out after just a few outings in 2011.

It wouldn’t be a retrospective on poor Nats players if we didn’t briefly talk about Elijah Dukes though. I think its safe to assume that he’s the only guy on this list that has served more time in jail than has played in the minor leagues, attempting to get back to the show.

2008 (8 players)

Total Players used: 25 position, 25 pitchers, 50 total. 8/50 = 16% never appeared again

Players:

Kory Casto; 2009 AAA, 2010 in Ariz AA, retired.
Dmitri Young: some rehab in low minors 2009, retired.
Rob Mackowiak: 2009: some indy, bounced around AAA, that’s it.
Johnny Estrada; flat out quit after 2008
Odalis Perez; refused his 2009 contract, never resigned
Levale Speigner; 2009 in Florida’s AA/AAA, then 2010 in Seattle AAA. done.
Ray King; retired after 2008
Chris Schroder; 2009, 2010 bounced around AAA with Oakland, Fla.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Odalis Perez, though I’m tempted to say either Mackowiak or Estrada, possibly the two worst FA signings of the whole Jim Bowden era (and that’s saying something). But nothing beats the Perez story. He was the Nats Opening Day Starter in 2008; hell he was the first guy to get a start in the Nationals Stadium. He pitched well; in 30 starts he was 7-12 with a 4.34 ERA and a 99 ERA+ for a god-awful team. But apparently he got really pissed when the team only offered him a non-guaranteed Minor League deal for 2009. So he held out, the Nats said “fine with us” and released him, and nobody else picked him up. And he never played another game. I’m not sure if that was a sign that he was just that bad (not one team wanted to even give an opening day starter a look the subsequent year?), or if there was some sort of MLB general manager omerta that conspired against him. Either way, Perez played again, not even in Winter Leagues as far as I could find. Sometimes a player has to swallow his pride, and Perez apparently could not.

2007 (12 players)

Total Players used: 21 position, 26 pitchers, 47 total. 12/47 = 25.5% never appeared again

Players:

Nook Logan; indy league 2008, 2010.
Robert Fick: Cut from the Padres in ST 2008, full year indy league 2009, retired.
D’Angelo Jimenez: AAA all of 2008, 2009. Mexican league and Indy league 2010-2012
Tony Batista: Wash AAA 2008, then released
Michael Restovich: 2008 in Japan, AAA 2009-2011, retired
Brandon Watson: AAA 2008-9, indy league 2011, retired.
Mike Bacsik: 2008 AAA, 2011 indy league, now a broadcaster.
Jason Simontacchi; 2008 indy league, 2010 again.
John Patterson; cut in ST 2008, immediately signed w/ Texas but never played again.
Ryan Wagner: AAA 2008-9, released and presumably retired.
Arnie Munoz; went to mexican league, retired > 2010
Chris Booker: AAA in 2008, then retired/released.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Mike Bacsik, who was destined to be a career 4-A guy before Washington picked him up and gave him 20 starts in 2007. Bacsik was on his 6th minor league organization when he arrived in Syracuse and pitched his way up to the major leagues. He was overmatched badly; he had a 5.11 ERA and just a 3.4 K/9 rate. But he did get his moment in the headlines by giving up Barry Bonds‘ 756th career homer one night in San Francisco in August. Contrary to accusations on the topic, I do not believe Bacsik “served up” the homer. If you check the play index, Bonds hit the 7th pitch of the at-bat in a 3-2 count for that homer. Bacsik didn’t purposely give up a homer on the 7th pitch of an at-bat; he just ran out of pitches to show Bonds that weren’t going to get pulverized.

A quick comment though on John Patterson: I remember being absolutely shocked at his release in 2008’s spring training. He was cut on 3/20/08, right in the middle of Spring Training with no warning and having just thrown his Grapefruit innings. He was healthy, recovered from surgery, ready to be the ace of that staff and start showing off the potential that he showed in 2005 (you know, when he 4-hit the Dodgers with 13 punch outs and posted the best Game-Score performance in Nats history). He signed a ML deal with Texas after his release by the Nats, but he couldn’t answer the call and never appeared again, getting released in mid May. I guess his third arm surgery in 7 years just left him unable to compete at any level and he hung ‘em up.

2006 (20 players)

Total Players used: 28 position, 29 pitchers, 57 total. 20/57 = 35% never appeared again

Damian Jackson; dnp 2007, indy league 2008-9
Bernie Castro: AAA all of 2007, 8 then retired.
Alex Escobar: Wash minors 2007-8, then retired.
Brandon Harper: Wash AAA all of 2007, then released/retired.
Wiki Gonzalez: CWS AAA all of 2007, indy league 2008, retired.
Henry Mateo: AAA or Indy league 2007-2009, mexican league from 2010-current 2013
George Lombard: AAA 2007-9, some indy league, retired.
Mike Vento: 2007 Wash AAA, indy league 2008, back with Syracuse 2009, retired.
Melvin Dorta; various minor leagues 2007-2010, indy league 2011, retired.
Luis Matos: AAA 2007, Mexican League 2008-2012. ? 2013
Pedro Astacio; retired after 2006
Felix Rodriguez: dnp 2007, indy league 2008-9, retired.
Zach Day: AAA 2007, briefly A+ 2008, retired.
Beltran Perez; wash minors AA/AAA 2007-8, released and never played again.
Joey Eischen; released off of Washington and retired.
Travis Hughes; AAA in 2007, played in Japan 2008, indy leagues 2009, 2011.
Ryan Drese: various minor leagues 2007-8, indy league 2009-2010, Baltimore AAA 2011, released/retired.
Kevin Gryboski: AAA 2007-2008, retired/released.
Brett Campbell: Wash AA 2007, released/retired.
Santiago Ramirez: Japan in 2007, Mexican league 2008, indy 2009, retired.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Joey Eischen, who bounced around the league in his 20s before settling in Montreal and moving south with the team. He was known to be a “character” in the clubhouse and to give good quotes to reporters (google “Joey eischen quotes” and you’ll find some of his classics). By 2006 though the years had taken their toll on his shoulder; he had 19 walks in 14 2/3 innings through the end of May had blown his rotator cuff. The team put him on the 60 day D/L and called up one Bill Bray. Eischen never got off that D/L; he was released in the off-season and never played again. For 2013, he’s listed as the pitching coach of Colorado’s high-A Affiliate in Asheville.

2005 (16 players)

Total Players used: 30 position, 25 pitchers, 55 total. 16/55 = 29% never appeared again

Players:

Carlos Baerga; retired after 2005
Junior Spivey: bounced around AAA 2006-7, indy ball in 2009, retired.
Tony Blanco; Nats minor leagues 2006-7, Colorado AA in 2008, in Japan from 2009-present.
Wil Cordero; released mid 2005, signed on with the NY Mets but never made it out of AAA. Retired after 2005.
Deivi Cruz; released after 2005, cut from St. Louis 2006 ST, played indy ball, retired.
Jeffrey Hammonds; retired in June 2005 mid-season.
J.J. Davis: Traded to Colorado as part of the Preston Wilson deal, sent to Colorado’s AAA, then released after the season and never played again.
Rick Short; Granted FA after the 2005 season to play in Japan, played there til 2009.
Kenny Kelly; AAA in 2006 and 2007, released and retired.
Keith Osik; a backup catcher, got 4 ABs in 2005, released and retired.
Tyrell Godwin; after just THREE MLB at-bats in 2005, spent all of 2006 and 2007 in AAA, released and retired.
T.J. Tucker; released after 2005, tried one year of indy ball in 2008, retired.
Joe Horgan; released after 2005, played one year of AAA with Florida, released, retired.
Matt White; AAA in 2006-7, Japan 2007-8, tried indy ball in 2010, hung ‘em up.
C.J. Nitkowski; AAA in 2006, then went to Japan 2007-8, Korea 2009-10, back with the Mets AAA team in July 2012. Not signed for 2013
Antonio Osuna: dnp in 2006, Mexican league 2007-9.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Rick Short, who got his MLB debut at the age of 32, after 11 very long seasons in the minors with many different teams. He got a couple of call-ups in June and July to provide cover, and then played out the string after a Sept 1 roster expansion call-up. In that off-season, he returned to Japan (where he’d played one full season prior), and played four more years in the Japanese League and retired in 2009.

Though it merits talking about a couple other guys here. Tony Blanco; he was a rule-5 draftee who the Nats carried the whole of 2005 so they could keep his rights. He was awful; he had a .177 batting average as the 25th guy off the bench. In 2006 he couldn’t even cut it in AA and played most of the year in High-A. After 2007 the Nats summarily released him from their minor league organization altogether. He found his calling though; he signed on in Japan in 2009 at age 27 and continues to play there today. You have to wonder if he may very well earn another MLB shot.

Jeffrey Hammonds was well known to Washington baseball fans by virtue of his pedigree with our northern neighbors in Baltimore; he was a 1st round draft pick in 1992 out of Stanford, broke in with the MLB team the following year and was a role player on the powerhouse Baltimore teams of the mid 1990s. He bounced around the league afterwards though, signing on with the newly relocated Washington franchise for the 2005 debut season but he hung ‘em up after a slow start here. He was only 34 when he retired.

Written by Todd Boss

May 3rd, 2013 at 9:34 am

Nats Major & Minor League Pitching Staffs vs Predictions

Ladson’s Inbox 3/14/13

5 comments

Mar 12, 2013; Miami, FL, USA; United States pitcher Gio Gonzalez (47) delivers a pitch against Puerto Rico at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Scott Rovak-USA TODAY Sports

It’s been a while since Bill Ladson did an inbox; strange because you’d think with Spring Training in full swing he’d be getting a ton of emails. Here’s his 3/14/13 edition. Lets see if he takes a question on who will be the 2014 manager for the 5th consecutive time.

As always, I write my own answers before reading his, and edit questions for clarity as needed.

Q: Should the Nats be worried about sending their pitchers to the World Baseball Classic? Will there be pressure on them to pitch too many innings too soon?

A: Yes, this organization may be worried, as discussed in depth in Feburary in this space. We’ve never had a pitcher throw in the WBC who hasn’t come back either injured or less effective, and league-wide studies show the same trend. However I will say this: all 5 pitchers we’ve sent in years past were relievers. This year we sent two starters in Gio Gonzalez and Ross Detwiler. So maybe things will be different. Yes the concern basically is that these guys are more interested in getting outs than getting ready for the regular season, causing them to overthrow, to not prepare as they normally would in the spring, to not focus on specific things that they would normally do in spring training games. It is less about innings or pitch counts (which are strictly monitored). Ladson says the team isn’t worried about their arms, but is worried about the lack of playing time Eury Perez is getting. And they have a great point; Perez is sitting on the DR bench instead of getting ABs in spring training games. His chances of making the team dropped to zilch and he’s already been re-assigned to AAA.

Q: Who are going to be the lefties for the Nationals by Opening Day?

A: I’m assuming he means the “Lefty relievers.” At this point its looking like we’re going to break camp with just one lefty reliever in Zach Duke. Bill Bray needs more minor league time, Bobby Bramhall and Sean West are in minor league camp slated for AAA jobs, Brandon Mann got one inning and was awful, Pat McCoy got some innings but isn’t ready. Only Fernando Abad has stuck with the big-league team and looks good. But, if Henry Rodriguez is ready to go there’s no room for Abad. I’m guessing Abad goes to AAA and bides his time. Ladson agrees, and points out that our righties can get lefties out.

Q: With Tyler Moore on the big league roster, what do you think will happen to Chris Marrero?

A: I’m going to answer this my way, then i’ll predict what Ladson says. Chris Marrero goes back to AAA, burns his last option in the process, and bides his time waiting for injuries to take out the likes of Adam LaRoche and/or Tyler Moore. That seems to be the only way he gets opportunities this year. The team will hope for a strong AAA season to build up trade value and then will move him if they can. Otherwise he’s looking at a waiver wire trip this coming off-season. Now, before I read Ladson’s answer i’m going to guess that he says something along the lines of “The Nats will look to trade him for valuable assets” but he’ll neglect to mention that Marrero has zero trade value right now, having missed all of last year. Lets see if i’m right: I stand corrected; Ladson has finally come around on his stance on Marrero and says he’ll be in AAA all year.

Q: Would the Nats ever consider adding Kyle Lohse to the roster?

A: Consider? Perhaps. Actually do it? I don’t see it. Kyle Lohse is becoming the poster child for the problem with the Qualifying Offer in the new CBA. He foolishly declined it (on the advice of Scott Boras, who probably told him he could get 3-4 years guaranteed on the open market), and now sits unsigned 3 weeks from opening day. Its amazing; this guy was 16-3 last year! Lohse is seen as a product of his environment, a great coaching staff in St. Louis who do wonders with mediocre pitchers. And make no mistake; 2012 aside Lohse is a career 97 ERA+ pitcher with a .500 record and a 4.45 ERA. He doesn’t fit into the mold of what Mike Rizzo generally wants in a starter; power arm, high K/9 capabilities. Now, if the team bus crashed and we lost our starting rotation to injury tomorrow … yeah i’m guessing we’d give him a call. But there’s no way the Nats (or likely any other team) is going to give 3 guaranteed years to a 34-year old soft-tossing guy. Boras really, really miscalculated here and it looks like its going to cost his client millions. Ladson agrees.

Q: Please find out where Cole Kimball is in his rehab. I would like to know if he’s anywhere close to pre-surgery velocity.

A: I only saw Cole Kimball in one game, but his velocity was down. Perhaps its ramped back up later into spring training. In either case he’s bound for AAA to burn his last Option and await bullpen issues for his shot. Ladson says he’s “close to throwing 95-mph.” I wish more of these games were televised.

Q: Having heard earlier in the offseason that general manager Mike Rizzo feels Steve Lombardozzi and Danny Espinosa are both starters and not bench players, do you feel one of them will be traded prior to Opening Day? Lombardozzi was an extremely clutch pinch-hitter last year in my opinion.

A: Traded prior to Opening Day? Almost impossible; nobody makes trades at this point in the season. You make trades prior to spring training and then after a couple months are past in the season to address off-season or intra-season needs. We’ll save the Espinosa vs Lombardozzi vs Rendon discussion; we all know it by heart by now. Ladson says a trade is not coming.

Q: Considering he had a very good year with Triple-A Syracuse in 2012, what are the chances of outfielder Corey Brown making the team?

A: Zilch. He may have hit in AAA, but he didn’t hit squat with Washington last September. He’s at least 6th on the Washington OF depth chart (Werth, Harper, Span, Moore, Bernadina and then Eury Perez. Perhaps even lower; I think the team would give Carlos Rivero and Erik Komatsu chances before Brown at this point. And its just a matter of time before uber-prospect Brian Goodwin passes him by as well. Brown’s looking at another year of AAA time, burning his last option, and then getting the MLFA treatment. Ladson says no chance.

Hey! No question on the 2014 Nats manager this time! I stand corrected.

Written by Todd Boss

March 18th, 2013 at 9:25 am

7th Bullpen arm competition getting interesting

3 comments

Is Abad in line to make this team? Photo Houston 2012 official via espn.com

By and large the entire 25-man roster is mostly set for this team. Only an injury is likely to change the names of our bench or our rotation. The biggest spring training competition remains the name of the 7th man out of the bullpen. And we got some interesting notes this week that may illuminate who that name may be.

Just for review, I’m considering these 6 guys locks to make the team, either due to their contract, their option status or their earning the spot: Soriano, Clippard, Storen, Mattheus, Stammen and Duke.

The leading candidate for the 7th spot has always been Henry Rodriguez: he has no options, the GM loves his arm and when he’s on, he is the embodiment of “unhittable.” But there’s a slew of possible issues with Rodriguez, not the least of which is the fact that he’s not yet recovered from his off-season surgery.

I had been advocating (partly out of fond memories, partly for self-interest since I know his cousin and think I could swing some free tickets) for Bill Bray to make the team as a 2nd lefty out of the pen and a LOOGY-focused guy. However, he struggled in his ST appearances and he was sent to minor league camp yesterday (3/3/13). Davey Johnson was quoted as saying that Bray’s mechanics are still not right, and it seems more likely now that he’ll be working in Syracuse for at least the beginning of the season.

Meanwhile, Christian Garcia has succummed to yet another injury, this one a “partial tear” in his forearm that (so far) won’t be treated surgically. For a guy who has already had 3 arm surgeries, you have to wonder if he’ll ever be healthy enough to pitch for this team. For what its worth, apparently the words “partial tear” are the same thing as “strained tendon” in this case, so perhaps it isn’t as bad as it sounds. In any case, i’m guessing this little setback makes it certain that Garcia is not going to be the 7th guy out of the pen.

Meanwhile, out of nowhere Non-roster/Minor league signing Fernando Abad has looked pretty good so far; in 3 appearances he’s given up just 1 hit and 2 walks against pretty decent competition (B-r rates his opposition as an 8.3, where 10=all major leaguers). Abad doesn’t have the greatest MLB numbers (5.09 ERA for Houston in 2012), but has looked decent in small samples so far this spring.

We’ll see how things play out from here.

Written by Todd Boss

March 6th, 2013 at 9:14 am

Posted in Majors Pitching

Tagged with bill bray, christian garcia, craig stammen, drew storen, fernando abad, henry rodriguez, rafael soriano, ryan mattheus, tyler clippard, zach duke

Observations of Nats from early televised ST games

2 comments

Carlos Rivero looks like a valuable utility guy so far this spring. Photo Brad Barr/US Presswire via bleacherreport.com

I have to admit, I’ve thoroughly enjoyed the two Nats spring training games that managed to find their way to MLB Network TV thus far (NatsJournal live blogs for the 2/23 game here and 2/25 game here). Not so much because we got to see Harper, Strasburg and Gonzalez … we all know what these guys can do. No; I’m interested in seeing the young guys, the guys who we rarely get to see play. This year’s spring training is a week longer, meaning that there’s going to be an awful lot of playing time devoted to these AA and AAA guys who got spring training invites, and that’s many more looks at the likes of Matt Skole, Chris Marrero, and Carlos Rivero.

It is also good to see some of these arm prospects that we’ve been hearing so much about, and it has been instructive to see some of the minor league veterans invited to spring training. Some observations on our guys (arms then bats):

Stephen Strasburg’s first 7 pitches on 2/23/13; all fastballs, all 96-97. Clearly he was working on his spots. I’m not sure he threw a change-up the entire outing. As is always the case in spring training, guys work on pitches, work on location, and stats are meaningless. He gave up a wind-aided homer to a guy who’s hit like 1 his entire career; no cause for concern.
Gio Gonzalez was amped up; he over threw his fastball in the first and (if you believe the broadcast) reached 97 in the second. He struggled with his release point clearly. However, his curve looked in mid-season form, breaking sharply and serving as a nice out pitch against the few regulars that the Mets did bat on 2/25/13.
Bill Bray looked, well, awful. His mechanics were always odd-looking, but he got hit hard by the Mets lineup of rag-tag regulars. Not a good start for Bray’s spring.
Cole Kimball back on the hill …. where was his fastball? It generally was coming in 90-91. That’s clearly a step back from 2011, when he was averaging 93 and peaking at 95.8. Lets hope this is Kimball working himself in slowly and not a permament velocity loss from his shoulder surgery. Either way, he’s not going to displace his RHP competitors for the bullpen spots unless he can hump it up a bit more.
Pat McCoy was scheduled to throw 2/23, and I would really have liked to see him, but the Mets were ahead in the 9th and didn’t need to bat. I’m convinced that McCoy could be a sleeper candidate for a left-handed specialist in this organization, if the cattle-call of guys we’ve signed to ML deals falls through.
Ross Ohlendorf put in two clean innings, but I don’t like what I see from him necessarily. Not a lot of velocity (90-91) but a big guy (6′4″) who gets downward plane on his fastball. But he just seems very “hittable.” His numbers from the last two years in the majors show it; ERAs of 8.15 and 7.77 in 18 starts. Not good.
Nathan Karns: the beat reporters raved about his performance overall; 2 innings, 3 Ks against a MLB-heavy part of the Mets order. It was great to finally see Karns throw; he has easy arm action, runs the ball in 94-95, and spotted the ball on the corners well. What I didn’t see was anything resembling a quality second pitch. He attempted a number of sliders (I’m guessing sliders; they were generally 84-86, which would be a very hard curve) and he couldn’t get over-top of them at all. He did throw one particular breaking pitch that was sharp and nasty. I didn’t see anything resembling a 3rd or 4th pitch though. Is he destined for the bullpen? That’s not the worst thing in the world; to be the next Ryan Mattheus, a hard-throwing 7th inning right hander.

Now for thoughts on our minor league hitters:

Eury Perez is, well, really fast. If he turns out to be anything close to a servicable hitter, he’s got leadoff/center fielder written all over him. The question could become; which speedy CF prospect do we hope for more; Perez or Brian Goodwin? Denard Span’s contract has a convenient option for 2015, just about the time that Goodwin is likely ready for the majors on a full-time basis. Of course, that being said Perez is further along than Goodwin (who likely starts 2013 at AA). Goodwin has power to go with his speed, while Perez seems to have very little power. Which would you prefer to be the longer-term CF solution?
I like Matt Skole; sweet swing, not overpowered by facing MLB pitching. It makes you wonder about scouting sometimes; how come guys like Skole and Tyler Moore get no love from scouts? Its like a 30-home run minor league guy is somehow a liability. Of course, Skole’s problem is the same as Anthony Rendon’s; positional blockage at 3B. Yes Skole was playing low-A as a college junior when he hit 27 homers … but if you’ve seen Hagertown’s stadium, you know its a monster park to hit balls out of. 27 homers is no mean feat down there. I’ll be curious to see if Skole can hit with that kind of power at High-A or AA (wherever he starts 2013).
Chris Marrero has looked pretty good, making good solid contact a number of times. I don’t like his haircut though .
Carlos Rivero is impressing me; he’s playing the outfield (after having played first SS and then 3B in the minors). He has good hands, is a big guy, and seems like he can be a servicable backup utility guy who can fill in at any corner. He’d be more flexible Moore or Chad Tracy in this respect (when judging our projected utility guys) but of course needs to show he can hit at the same levels. Still, he is likely to be a numbers game victim unless someone like Bernadina gets hurt this spring.

Written by Todd Boss

February 27th, 2013 at 10:03 am

Ask Boswell 2/25/13 Edition

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When is Anthony Rendon going to be ready for the Majors? Photo Nats Official via espn.com

With the first couple of Spring Training games in the books, its fitting that Tom Boswell did a Monday morning chat on 2/25/13.

Here’s how I’d have responded to the Baseball-specific questions he took. As always, questions are edited for clarity and I write here before reading his response so as not to “color” my answer.

Q: Given that the Nats know almost every player making the roster out of Spring Training, do the players/coaches approach the 6 weeks differently?

A: Good question; I was taking with someone about this exact topic this weekend. The 25-man roster is essentially already solidifed; perhaps the only question remaining is whether or not Henry Rodriguez makes it onto the team or does the team carry a second lefty reliever (Bill Bray?). So I think the answer has to do with looking more at the AAA talent, looking at minor league FA signings like Micah Owings and Chris Snyder to see if they’re going to be better options than the guys we already had slated at AAA. And the coaching staff gets to look at up-and-coming guys like Anthony Rendon, Zach Walters, and the like. Boswell reiterates what I said here, naming other ML signings of interest like Chris Young, but also says that this ST has a lot of “wasted time.”

Q: I’ve spent the offseason reading Ball Four to help get my baseball fix. Do you have a sense about how different things are now?

A: It has been a while since I read Jim Bouton’s seminal baseball book Ball Four. But the season he chronicles (1969) happened before a number of rather important moments in Baseball history. Expansion, divisional play, the Designated Hitter, the aftermath of the Curtis Flood and Andy Messersmith decisions (aka, Free Agency) and of course the massive increase of money in the game (both from a revenue stand point and from a player salary stand point). One thing that seems certain to have changed; players can now earn enough in a season to be set financially for life. And, the players union’s power is now such that players have the upper hand in a lot of negotiations with the league and the owners when it comes to labor unions. Boswell notes that managers, coaches and GMs are far “smarter” now than they were in the Bouton era.

Q: How the Nats will do at the gate this year?

A: The season ticket base is back to where it was in 2005 apparently, broaching 20,000 season tickets. The team averaged 29,269 fans last year. Clearly the attendance seems set to rise significantly. I think they’ll average 35,000 a night if they continue to be a first-place club. Boswell agrees, noting that the team also has a couple of very marketable stars to help with attendance.

Q: Other than obvious injuries, are there any things that can happen in the first quarter of the year that you would find to be troubling?

A: I’d be troubled if Danny Espinosa started off slow. I’d also be concerned if we saw significant regression out of our WBC participants Gio Gonzalez and Ross Detwiler, confirming my fears. But the most important factor may be the performance of Dan Haren: is he the 2012 Haren or the 2009 Haren? If he approaches 2009 version, this team may be set for the season. Boswell notes they have a tough early schedule, that winning 98 games is tough, and that we should be patient.

Q: Gio Gonzalez; did he or didn’t he?

A: I think the prevailing opinion in the sport now seems to be that he did NOT take or receive PEDs from the Miami clinic, and that he was an unfortunate bystander. His passing a surprise PED test given two days after the scandal seems to have also bolstered his case. Boswell agrees.

Q: Are the Nats a 98 win team again, or was last year a fluke?

A: Barring a significant injury in the rotation, I think the Nats are easily a 98-win team and perhaps better in 2013. Statistical WAR “proof” offered in this space back in January, and that was before the LaRoche re-signing and the Soriano pickup, both of which marginally should improve the team a few wins. Most national pundits that I’ve read think the same thing, that this team could win 103 games. The various estimator stats out there (Zips, Pecota, etc) the team much closer to 90 wins, but those predictors are by and large incredibly conservative. Boswell also says it comes down to health of the rotation.

Q: How would you rate the Nats starting rotation, spot by spot, compared to the rest of the Major Leagues?

A: Spot by Spot, its hard not to think that each of our guys are each at least in the top 5 by position in the league. Drawing from my Rotational Rankings post from January 7th, 2013, I’d say that:

Strasburg is clearly among the best arms in the game (in the discussion along with Verlander, Kershaw, and Hernandez). He’s not as accomplished as this group of course, but his talent is unquestionable.
Gonzalez matches up as a top 5 number two starter (other candidates: Greinke, Hamels, Lincecum or Cain, depending on who you think SF’s “ace” is).
Zimmermann is traditionally underrated but is at least a top 5 number three starter (along with Scherzer, Johnson/Morrow, Bumgarner, Lee and Moore).
Haren on potential could be the best number four starter in the game, though Buehrle, Miley, and Lynn could also fit in here.
Detwiler is often mentioned as being the best number five starter out there, and its hard to find competitors (best options: Zito, Romero, Garcia, and whoever Oakland and St. Louis settle upon for their #5 starters).

Boswell seems worried that these five guys can handle the workload all year, only really trusting Gonzalez in terms of repeatability.

Q: What future do you see for Anthony Rendon, and when will he debut in the majors?

A: I have been of the belief that Zimmerman should move to 1B for Rendon at some point. But with LaRoche signed for two years, that won’t happen for a while (2 years, perhaps 3 if we pick up his 2015 option). So now i’m starting to come around to the the possibility of Rendon pushing someone else off their position. The most likely candidate seems to be Espinosa at 2B. Despite having Lombardozzi on the 25-man, Rendon is a higher-potential player. If Espinosa starts slow, and Rendon starts fast, I could see Rendon getting called up in June and starting to get reps at 2nd while Espinosa goes on the DL for his shoulder. Otherwise, a Sept 1 call-up seems in order. Boswell predicts a post-all star game call-up.

Q: Is there any way the Nats can stop Detwiler and Gio from pitching in that baseball ‘classic’? I see a disaster waiting to happen. Luis Ayala was never the same after getting hurt pitching in that thing.

A: There’s no way legally the team can prevent either guy from pitching, since neither suffered any injuries in 2012. And yes I agree (as discussed in this space on 2/11/13) this is bad news for the Nats. Washington has never had a pitcher play in the WBC who didn’t regress badly, and the stats seem to show that most every pitcher who does participate in the WBC pitches poorly the next two seasons (links in my post). Boswell says cross your fingers.

Q: Do you think Bryce has it in him to be National League mvp?

A: Yes I do. MVP voting generally starts with the “Best Player” on the “Best Teams” and creates a short list from there. It is why it is relatively easy to predict the MVPs. If Washington is the best team in the league and makes the playoffs again, and Bryce Harper has a break out season, it won’t be hard to see him getting serious MVP consideration. Now, let me also say that a “Harper for MVP” prediction is NOT the same as predicting that Harper is set to become the best player in the game. That’s not what the MVP measures. If the question was, “Is Harper set to become the best player in the National League” i’d then say, “No, he’s a few years away from that distinction.” Boswell thinks it may be a bit early.

Q: How many wins per year would you estimate a a stellar defense adds to a teams win total over the course of a season?

A: I’m sure there’s a good statistical answer for this, based on the percentage of WAR added by defense. But it seems like a very difficult answer to come by. Boswell says “a few.”

Q: Any reason to think he’s NOT going to be the GM for a long time? Because I can’t think of many others who have done as good a job in all of baseball.

A: I can see no reason for Rizzo not to be the GM for at least the next 4 years. His next big challenge will be dealing with the inevitable payroll demands of Harper and Strasburg (both of whom project to be $25M players) while also keeping a competitive team on the field. 2017 could be an interesting year for this team; Strasburg projects to hit Free Agency that year, and Harper should be in his 4th arbitration year. They already have Zimmerman and Werth at $14M and $21M respectively in the 2017 year, with possibly another $40-$45M out the door to keep Harper and Strasburg. They better start working on the farm system again. Boswell didn’t really answer the question, just mentioned how Rizzo’s options have yet to be picked up.

Q: How is Ramos looking thus far? 100%? Suzuki is a professional and seems to be a good guy, do you get a feel for how well he and Ramos interact? How great would it be to generate some power/runs from the catcher spot this year.

A: I’ve been assuming that the catcher job is Suzuki’s to lose for now; its still early but no word has come out negatively on Ramos‘ recovery. Either way, yes it would be nice to get some production out of the #8 hole. Suzuki was pretty good after he came over here, but Ramos healthy was a middle-of-the-order bat. Boswell suggests that Ramos stop blocking the plate.

Q: If Rendon tears it up after September call-up, what does the Nats 2014 infield look like?

A: Wow; hard not to say Rendon replaces Espinosa like-for-like right now. But, just as Desmond broke out in his 3rd full time season, so could Espinosa. It could make for a log jam. Lets hope for the best, hope for a rebound Espinosa season and a good-problem-to-have situation of having to trade a strength to make way for another strength. Boswell has no idea where Rendon will play if he merits a call-up.

Q: I think the Nats, and Danny Espinosa are whistling past the graveyard if they think a completely torn left rotator cuff will not seriously affect Danny’s play. Your take?

A: A fair assessment. I too believe a torn rotator cuff absolutely has to be affecting his swing, especially from the right side. I think Espinosa should have gotten the thing surgically repaired in the off-season. I wonder how much the team knew of the injury, because when it was reported in the off-season it sure seemed like a surprise. Boswell says its a concern and that Espinosa should take more days off.

Q: Is McCatty working with Strasburg on correcting his inverted W delivery? Strasburg also has footstrike issues, as he tends to plant his foot and then whip his arm, which puts a ton of strain on his shoulder. I’m concerned if he doesn’t correct this, his shoulder will give out this season or next. Are the Nats worried about this? Are they working on cleaning up his delivery at all?

A: I’m beginning to think that this whole “Inverted W” thing is a bunch of BS. Keith Law stated as much when prompted in a chat recently; he says that the problem with the Inverted W theory is that its difficult to “state” with authority that certain pitchers do or don’t have the phenomena. And its true; if you see some shots of Strasburg he has it, in others his arms are more bent behind his back. Its the same with Gio Gonzalez (I can show you stills of him landing with his arms clearly in an “inverted W” position and you don’t hear anyone talking about Gonzalez’s mechanics. The leading inverted-W site on the internet (Chris O’Leary’s page linked here) uses an opportunisitic example set of pitchers with that motion, but I can find plenty of examples of guys who have similar mechanics but zero soft-tissue injury history (on the Nats two quick examples are Drew Storen and Craig Stammen). Meanwhile one of his examples was John Smoltz … who only threw 3400 MLB innings in his career and basically didn’t miss a start until he was 32. Not the best example of proof that his mechanics were somehow “awful.” I think the entire phenomenon is an observation of coincidence, that pitchers get injuries all the time no matter what their mechanics, and that we need to move onwards. Wow; Boswell thinks exactly what i think; these proofs are nonesense.

Written by Todd Boss

February 26th, 2013 at 9:47 am

Posted in Chat/Mailbag Responses, Majors Pitching, Nats in General, World Baseball Classic

Tagged with adam laroche, andy messersmith, anthony rendon, barry zito, bill bray, brandon morrow, bryce harper, chris oleary, chris snyder, chris young, clayton kershaw, cliff lee, cole hamels, craig stammen, curtis flood, dan haren, danny espinosa, drew storen, felix hernandez, gio gonzalez, henry rodriguez, iah desmond, jaime garcia, jayson werth, jim bouton, john smoltz, jordan zimmermann, josh johnson, justin verlander, keith law, kurt suzuki, lance lynn, luis ayala, madison bumgarner, mark buehrle, matt cain, matt moore, max scherzer, micah owings, mike rizzo, rafael soriano, ricky romero, ross detwiler, ryan zimmerman, stephen strasburg, steve lombardozzi, steve mccatty, tim lincecum, tom boswell, wade miley, wilson ramos, zach walters, zack greinke

Henry Rodriguez still isn’t healthy?

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Be prepared for another dubious DL trip for Rodriguez. Photo Keith Allison via wiki/flickr

Sometimes its the smallest of items that catch your eye. In Washington Times’ beat reporter Amanda Comak’s 2/12/13 spring training report, she posted this little snippet:

Right-hander Henry Rodriguez, who had a bone spur and a chip removed from his throwing elbow last August, arrived in camp on Tuesday. Rodriguez has been rehabbing all winter and he said that while he feels good to this point, his rehab is not finished. It will be interesting to see just how much he’s able to do during spring training.

Rodriguez’s rehab isn’t finished? We’re 6 weeks away from Opening Day. He had this surgery in August, nearly 7 months ago. It was characterized as a “clean-up” surgery, not a “repair” surgery. What is going on?

The team already has too many right handed relievers for spots. Rodriguez has zero options, so he’s either on the 25-man roster, on the DL or out the door via waivers (and you know someone would pick him up; there’s a lot of really bad teams with thin bullpens out there right now).

Be prepared for another 2011-esque situation where the team stashes him on the DL out of spring training so as to give him yet another lifeline on this team. This topic came up recently in the comments, so for reference purposes he was put on the 15-day DL trip on 3/28/11, and I posted about this topic twice in March of 2011, on 3/23/11 when he got “shelved” to work on his mechanics and then again on 3/28/11 when his official DL-trip reason was “neck spasms,” despite not one single report of any neck issues the entirety of the spring.

I’ve made no secret of my frustrations with Rodriguez, both in his up-and-down performance and in the method of his acquisition. This little snippet of news gave me yet another reason to potentially be frustrated with him.

However, this future DL trip may open up an opportunity for one of the handful of left handed relievers the team has signed on minor league deals with spring training invites. It seems almost reminiscent of Jim Bowden’s 2008 pitching staff cattle calls, the lengths to which the team has pursued possibly LOOGY’s this off-season. I see no other reason for all these signings (just off the top of my head, Bill Bray, Fernando Abad, Bobby Bramhall, Brandon Mann, Sean West and Will Ohman) unless the team really wants to break camp with a second left-handed reliever. A second left-handed reliever means only 5 right-handed relievers, and those spots seem to be taken at the moment by Soriano, Storen, Clippard, Stammen and Mattheus barring injury.

Written by Todd Boss

February 14th, 2013 at 10:31 am

Posted in Majors Pitching

Tagged with amanda comak, bill bray, bobby bramhall, brandon mann, craig stammen, drew storen, fernando abad, henry rodriguez, jim bowden, rafael soriano, ryan mattheus, sean west, tyler clippard, will ohman

Ladson’s Inbox 2/5/13

16 comments

Lots of questions about Gonzalez and Garcia this week. Photo unknown credit.

Hey, what great timing for another Bill Ladson inbox (posted 2/5/13). Baseball news is light, pitchers and catchers report in a week or so, and I’m not quite ready to continue my Stats series.

As always, I write my answer before reading his, and sometimes edit questions for clarity:

Q: Do you think general manager Mike Rizzo will add starting pitching depth before Opening Day? Does the lingering possibility of a Gio Gonzalez suspension change whom the Nationals would consider acquiring?

A: In Ladson’s 1/22/13 mailbag, some one asked what could prevent the Nats as constructed from winning the World Series in 2013. I answered Rotation Injuries and Luck. Well, in the wake of the Miami PED scandal, I guess the third answer may be “PED scandal.”

This is a tough question to answer; Gio Gonzalez has denied the rumors, but the newspaper in question (the Miami New Times) clearly only named Gonzalez because they felt like the evidence they had in hand was irrefutable. Many other players have not been named. So as a GM; how do you go about preparing for 2013 at this point? If Mike Rizzo knows that Gonzalez is getting suspended, you have to think he’s on the horn to his buddy Scott Boras about possibly buying Kyle Lohse, which is clearly the best remaining FA starter. But Lohse isn’t coming cheap, and likely isn’t coming on a one year deal, and would cost another draft pick (I believe). The Nats are already topping $120M in payroll; would they go to $135M?

If we think Gio at least gets a pass and the suspension is put off, maybe Rizzo’s recent activities of signing random starters to minor league contracts is going to be sufficient.

Ladson mentions Javier Vazquez and the ever-present rumors of Christian Garcia going to the rotation as possible Gonzalez replacements if he gets suspended quickly. Probably fair; Vazquez may be a great, cheap alternative.

Q: Everyone is saying that it’s going to be a two-team race in the National League East between the Nationals and Braves. Do you think the Phillies have a shot to contend with both these teams, or is their time done?

A: Boy, its hard to look at the aging, expensive Phillies lineup they had in place in 2012, which suffered injuries and setbacks and creaked their way to a .500 record, and then look at the highly questionable slew of acquisitions and signings this off season (Ben Revere, John Lannan, Michael Young, Delmon Young and everyone’s favorite anti-gay advocate Yuniesky Betancourt) and not, well, giggle at where this team is going. My favorite baseball joke from the off-season goes like this: “The Phillies wanted to get Younger this off-season, so they signed Michael Young and Delmon Young.”

The two Youngs were both negative WAR players last year, Lannan is a 5th starter, Revere was a backup centerfielder who the Phillies traded some decent assets for, and Betancourt is who he is (though admittedly he’s on a minor league deal and seems at best set to be a utility infielder behind starters Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley). I see the Phillies being a very bad defensive team with the two Youngs in the starting lineup, I see some serious questions in the back side of the rotation, and I see continued regression and louder complaints about Ryan Howard’s contract. Fun times a-coming in Philadelphia. Ladson actually says that the Phillies will “be improved with Michael Young.” Bill! Have you seen Young’s WAR figures from 2012?? He was a NEGATIVE WAR player at both major War sites. That means he makes your team worse! Now, he was completely servicable in 2011 … so if you want to make the argument to me that 2012 was an aberration for an aging hitter playing in a hitter’s park, well I guess that’s a stance you can take. But pretty much every other pundit in the blogosphere has loudly criticized the Philadelphia moves this off-season.

Q: What is the status of Lucas Giolito? When do you see him pitching in D.C.?

A: Tommy John surgery in Late August (I can’t remember the exact date; it was 8/24/12 when I posted this highly-critical article about Lucas Giolito and the situation), so figuring a typical 12-month rehab session before he’s actively throwing again in pro-games basically puts him at the end of the 2013 minor league season. Which means he’ll be 20 before he really is ready to start his pro career in the spring of 2014. Figure 4-5 years average case for typical high schoolers to work their way up the systems (perhaps fewer years given his talents and pedigree, as we’ve seen with someone like Dylan Bundy in 2012, who made his way from low-A to AA in his first pro season out of HS and got a late Sept callup to the majors) and we’re probably looking at 2016-2017 before seeing him in the majors. If, of course, he recovers from surgery, hasn’t destroyed his mechanics, is effective, matures, doesn’t get re-injured, or any of the million other pitfalls that typically befall high school arms drafted in the upper rounds. Ladson thinks he’s pitching pro games “after the all-star break” and is in the majors in 3 years. Wow. That is optimistic.

Q: How do you think Henry Rodriguez will do? And what do you think his role in the bullpen will be?

A: I am, and always have been, pessimistic on Henry Rodriguez. I hated the Willingham trade that got him here. He’s forced the team to invent injuries to stash him on the DL coming out of spring training b/c he has no options. He led the league in wild pitches in 2011 in just 65 innings. He had a 69 ERA+ in 2012. At some point when does the team say, “OK, its nice that he throws 100mph. But enough is enough; we need a reliable pitcher who can deliver when called upon.” Perhaps Spring Training 2013 is that time.

What do I think his role will be? I’m sure he’ll look great in Spring Training again, will break camp with the team, and very well may look halfway decent for a while. But just like every other season, he’s going to have those 3-walk outings where he pitches a 1/3 of an inning and gives up 4 runs, and then the manager will be afraid to use him unless the team has a 5-run lead. And eventually we’ll call up Garcia to replace him and move on. That’s my prediction for Rodriguez. Ladson says the team should “attempt to trade him if he is not impressive this spring.” Wow, that’s sage advice; if only every team could trade its under-performing players and actually get value back whenever it wanted.

Q: Can you predict Washington’s Opening Day lineup if all available players are healthy?

A: Easy. I’ll even predict the batting order. Span-Werth-Harper-Zimmerman-LaRoche-Desmond-Espinosa-Suzuki-Strasburg. Ladson predicts the same names but in a lineup order that makes no sense from a lefty-righty balance perspective.

Q: After announcing his retirement, do you think Brian Schneider is a possible candidate to replace Johnson as manager of the Nationals?

A: Wow, yet another speculative question about the future Nationals Manager. He took a question about the manager on 1/28/13, and on 1/22/13. And on 1/14/13. I guess people like speculating on the Nats next manager. Not repeating what i’ve said on the topic before, is Brian Schneider a candidate? Why would he possibly be a candidate to manage the major league team of a system he left 5 years ago? Why would the Nats pick a manager who’s never managed a day in his life? Ladson breathes some common sense on this one.

Q: I think Garcia has to be on the Opening Day roster, so is he in the bullpen or someplace else? Can the 25-man roster accommodate him and all the other pitchers?

A: “Someplace else?” Like where? In the outfield? I like Garcia too, but the team has a numbers problem in the bullpen. Storen, Clippard, Mattheus, and Stammen have all more than earned their spots. Soriano is being paid a ton of money. Duke is guaranteed a spot (he’s the only lefty and he’s got enough service time to refuse a demotion). Oh, and Rodriguez has no options. So there’s your 7-man bullpen. Notice there’s only one left-hander out there; if you believe that you need left-handers to get left-handed batters out, then the bullpen needs to sacrifice one of the righties in order to have a second lefty (Bill Bray?) in there.

The only way I see Garcia making this bullpen is if the team runs out of patience with Rodriguez and DFAs/DLs him, or if the team trades away one of their closer-quality surplus guys, or if maybe someone like Mattheus/Stammen (both of whom do have options) struggles or gets hurt. Otherwise look for Garcia to get stretched out and get looks as a starter in AAA. Ladson says he’s confident Garcia is on the 25-man roster …. ok explain it to me then based on the above paragraph. Who is he replacing?

Written by Todd Boss

February 6th, 2013 at 11:49 am

Soriano? Well at least its Rafael and not Alfonso

19 comments

The Nats get some icing on the cake in Soriano. Photo Elsa/Getty Images via nydailynews.com

Jeff Passan broke the news, which I found out about only by chance late Tuesday afternoon (silly me, trying to do “work” or something). Rafael Soriano to the Nats on a 2yr/$28M deal with a third option year that only vests with a relatively unattainable 120 “games finished” plateau reached.

Wow. Did not see this coming.

Was this a reaction move to Drew Storen’s meltdown in the 9th inning of NLCS game 5? Adam Kilgore is reporting that the Nats owner Ted Lerner was “heavily involved” in the transaction, likely because of the amount of money involved and perhaps as a sign of the 2013 mandate to win it all.

Two quick reactions from a roster management perspective:

First off, we can call off the need for lefty relievers. Soriano’s so good against both righties and lefties that he can be the Loogy.
Secondly, I’m guessing that either Tyler Clippard or Drew Storen is officially on the block. The team certainly could have made the argument that they had too many right handed, back of the rotation candidates BEFORE today. Now they’ve got three closer-quality arms but only one closer job. And clearly Soriano is going to be the closer. If you look at his career stats, when he’s closing he’s lights out. 185 ERA+ last year for New York, a 237 ERA+ as Tampa’s closer in 2010. Clippard and Storen are good, but they’re not that good. One or the other is likely traded now, so as to clear a log-jam of RH arms in the pen. They *could* send down guys like Stammen or Storen (they have options available) but they’re too good to make way. More likely is a trade.

New Look 2013 bullpen: Soriano closing, Clippard or Storen setting up, Henry Rodriguez and Mattheus in 7th inning roles, Duke as loogy/long-man, Stammen as 6th-7th inning/long man and Bray as the loogy. Or perhaps Garcia makes the team while Bray pitches in AAA waiting for an injury. Or perhaps Clippard and Storen both stay, and both Bray and Garcia start in AAA. Or perhaps Clippard or Storen get packaged with Morse to bring back (as we’ve been saying for a while) both a lefty reliever AND some prospect depth.

I can see the blogosphere criticizing this deal for two reasons.

That’s a lot of money for a closer (I think it makes him the highest paid closer in the game), and the deal is surprising in that Soriano now will easily earn more than the rest of the bullpen combined, a stark departure from Mike Rizzo’s parsimonious methods of building bullpens lately.
Yet another Scott Boras client for the Nats. By my count that’s now seven Boras clients in the Nats system and five on the MLB roster (others: Espinosa, Werth, Goodwin, Harper, Rendon, Strasburg). I hate the lazy narrative that Rizzo is somehow Boras’ b*tch, but we’re about to hear it again. Check the agent database: yes we have a lot of his clients but so does Texas (7), Boston (8), Kansas City (6) and Detroit (6). Boras just has a lot of good players, and the Nats are a good team where players want to come to play.

$14M for a closer is a lot of money. But hey, its not my money. If we weren’t sure of it before, the Nats are now *really* officially saying that they’re going for it in 2013. I’ll have to re-do both the salary and the WAR worksheets when I get some time to see how this factors in.

Written by Todd Boss

January 15th, 2013 at 3:40 pm

How good is an “All Virginia” team?

16 comments

Is Virginia Native Justin Verlander the best ever player from the State? Photo unknown via rumorsandrants.com

Recently, I read a pundit who talked about how a huge percentage of baseball prospects come from relatively few states; California (mostly Southern California at that), Texas, Florida and Georgia. The Baseball America guys once talked about an “All North Carolina” team and how good it would be (BA is based in Durham, NC). It got me thinking: how good of a team could you put together of prospects with ties to Virginia? Having grown up in Virginia and having had the opportunity to play with and against a number of guys with pro ties over the years, I thought it’d be interesting to put together the “All Virginia Team.”

Using mostly the handy Baseball-reference pages, I looked up players who were either born in Virginia, went to a Virginia-based high school, or played baseball at one of Virginia’s universities. There’s also the fantastic Baseball Cube website (www.thebaseballcube.com) that has very in-depth player databases searchable by high schools that shows every player on a professional or NCAA team by school, which sometimes has better records than B-R.com. The players here had to be active in the Majors in 2012, though as it turned out there’s enough guys with Virginia ties to make a full starting team. Feedback is welcome.

Here’s a roster:

C: Brandon Inge (born and HS in Lynchburg, college at VCU)
1B: Mark Reynolds (HS in Virginia Beach, college at UVA)
2B: Will Rhymes (college at W&M)
SS: Ryan Zimmerman (HS in Virginia Beach, college at UVA)
3B: David Wright (born in Norfolk, HS in Chesapeake)
LF: Michael Cuddyer (born in Norfolk, HS in Chesapeake)
CF: B.J. Upton (born in Norfok, HS in Chesapeake)
RF: Justin Upton (born in Norfok, HS in Chesapeake)

Backups: Brandon Guyer OF (HS in Herndon, college at UVA), Rich Thompson OF (college at JMU), Jeff Baker Util (HS at Garfield in Woodbridge), Brandon Snyder IB/OF (HS at Westfields in Chantilly). Erik Kratz C (college at Eastern Mennonite)

Ok, so we’re a little weak up the middle. Zimmerman played SS in college but I can’t find a legitimate shortstop out there. Rhymes was just signed by the Nats to a minor league deal and isn’t likely to make the opening day 25-man roster save for injury. Inge hasn’t caught regularly in a few years. But how about the hitting prowness of this lineup? BJ Upton-Cuddyer-Zimmerman-Wright-Justin Upton-Reynolds is a pretty powerful group. Coincidentally, I put in Kratz because I find it amazing that someone who played baseball at Eastern Mennonite is actually in the big leagues. By B-R’s records, he’s the SOLE alumni of that university to have ever even played professional baseball.

Starting Pitchers:

Justin Verlander (born outside of Richmond, HS in Goochland, college at ODU)
Mat Latos (born in Alexandria)
Daniel Hudson (born in Lynchburg, HS in Virginia Beach, college at ODU)
Joe Saunders (born in Falls Church, HS at West Springfield, college at Va Tech)
Tim Stauffer (college at University of Richmond)

Backup starters: Danny Hultzen (born and raised in Bethesda, college at UVA); an exception to my “active in 2012″ rule but clearly the most high-profile tied-to-Virginia prospect in the game right now. John Maine (born in Fredericksburg, HS in Stafford) had a decent stint starting for the Mets, but he’s yet to get back to the majors after a shoulder surgery in 2010).

A pretty good 1-2 punch, including arguably the best pitcher in the game. Hudson has some potential. Saunders is more of an innings eater lefty, but he’s made a pretty good career for himself already. Stauffer had elbow surgery in August 2012 and probably isn’t ready for opening day, but he’s the best I could find.

Relievers:

Bill Bray (born and HS in Va Beach, college at W&M)
Javier Lopez (HS at Robinson in Fairfax, college at UVA)
Michael Schwimer (born in Fairfax, HS at St. Stephens in Alexandria, college at UVA)
Sean Doolittle (college at UVA)
Sean Marshall (born and HS in Richmond, college at VCU)
Cody Eppley (college at VCU)
Sean Camp (born in Fairfax, HS at Robinson in Fairfax, college at GMU)

Backup Relievers: BJ Rosenberg (born in Newport News), Jeremy Jeffres (born and HS in South Boston), Clay Rapada (born in Portsmouth, HS in Chesapeake, college at Virginia State).

Not bad depth here; I suppose Marshall could close, Bray be the loogy, Camp be an 8th inning guy, Eppley a 7th inning type and the rest be middle men. I like how Sean Camp was born, raised, went to high school and played baseball in college without ever leaving Fairfax.

Other random Virginia School trivia:

What’s the best producing college in Virginia? Pretty easily its UVA, with 117 pro players in B-R’s database and 30 guys reaching the majors. Virginia Tech, ODU, Richmond and VCU are all grouped a bit behind UVA in terms of pro player development. Amazingly little Liberty University has matriculated 59 players to the pro ranks.

At current, UVA has 6 active alumni in the majors. William & Mary, ODU and Richmond have 2 each, and a slew of lesser baseball-playing universities have one each (all of which are mentioned above).

What’s the best producing High School in Virginia? Pretty clearly the high schools in the Virginia Beach/Chesapeake area have been producing some serious baseball talent lately, but even the Upton brothers ended up going to different high schools. Both Virginia HS in Bristol and First Colonial HS in Virginia Beach list 8 pro player alumni with 2 pros each.

Closer to home in Northern Virginia: Garfield has 7 total players with Pro experience in the database, 3 of which have MLB experience. Robinson HS in Fairfax has 6 pros/3 MLB experince. Fairfax HS also has the same; 6 pros, 3 with MLB experience.

Of course, these numbers pale in comparison to some of the baseball factories in the major baseball-producing states Florida and California. Hillsborough HS in Tampa boasts 41 pro alumni and 10 with MLB experience, including Gary Sheffield, Dwight Gooden, Carl Everett and our own Elijah Dukes. Lakewood HS in Orange county has 57 pro alumni and 12 MLB experienced players, though not nearly of the name quality of Hillsborough’s graduates. Sarasota HS in Florida also boasts 57 pro player alumni, 14 MLB pros including our own Ian Desmond. There’s a HS in Oakland called McClymonds that has two Hall of Fame alumni (Frank Robinson and Ernie Lombardi), a host of other famous names from 60s and 70s but which hasn’t generated a pro player since the mid 1970s. Lastly Polytechnic HS in Long Beach has 47 pro alumni but an astonishing 18 guys with MLB experience, headlined by Hall of Famer Tony Gwynn and possibly future hall of famer Chase Utley.

Who is the Greatest player to have Virginia Roots? You could make arguments for Verlander, Wright, Zimmerman or the Upton brothers (probably in that order), but how about one Lou Whitaker, born in Brooklyn but somehow ended up matriculating from HS in Martinsville, Virginia, where he was drafted in the 5th round by Detroit. Billy Wagner (born in Tannersville, HS in Tazewell and college at Ferrum) is another guy from Virginia with a long, successful career. Long-time Oriole Al Bumbry was born in Fredericksburg, went to HS in King George and attended Virginia State.

However, there’s only one Hall of Famer with Virginia Roots that I can find: Eppa Rixley, born in Culpepper, HS in Charlottesville and he pitched for UVA before being signed as a free agent by Philadelphia. He ended up pitching 21 years in the majors and was selected to the Hall of Fame by the Veteran’s committee in 1963 shortly after he died.

(Editor’s Note: you may feel free to stop reading now; Below here is all pretty obscure stuff and only probably interesting to myself and my dad, or people who happen to grow up in the area and are familiar with Vienna baseball. In fact, I kind of got into a rat-hole of reminiscing for this section, thinking back to the good old days. I won’t be offended

My Personal experiences growing up and playing in Northern Virginia: I played Vienna youth leagues from 1977 til 1989, played in Vienna Babe Ruth and graduated from James Madison HS in Vienna in 1989 for reference.

The best player from Northern Virginia in my youth experiences was one Pete Schourek, who was two years older than me and graduated from Marshall HS in 1987. An enduring memory from my youth was watching Schourek blast a home-run to the townhouses beyond the RF fence at Marshall against Mike Nielsen (the ace of my own high school) in 1987. Schourek turned down a scholarship offer to Auburn and took 2nd round bonus money from the Mets. Schourek’s career lasted 10 years in the majors and his best season was an 18-7 year that resulted in a 2nd place Cy Young finish. The word at the time was that the Dodgers wanted to draft him as a hitter; his power from the left-hand side was quite superior. I often wonder if his would have made it as a hitting prospect; he had such natural lefty power in high school.

Other notable pro players from the 3-4 year period right around my draft year who I played against at various points:

A.J. Hernandez, who was the star of the local Herndon/Reston/McLean Babe Ruth all-star teams that had Vienna’s number year after year in the late 80s. He played one year of low-A ball.
David Carroll, a tall, rangy left-hander who dominated Chantilly baseball for years. He was a 6th round pick in 1991 and made it to AAA before washing out. We played against Carroll’s teams in the Credit Union in the early 90s.
Lonnie Goldberg, who was on the same HS team as Schourek at one point; played at George Mason, drafted in the later rounds and played 5 seasons of minor league ball.
Bill Pulsipher, who was a dominant player in the area and was drafted in the 2nd Round by the Mets in 1991 out of Fairfax HS. He made the Mets rotation by age 21 and looked decent before getting injured and spending the rest of his MLB career struggling in the bullpen. His b-r.com page shows his drive; he was still playing professaional Indy ball as late as 2011. His 1991 Fairfax HS team also had one Brian Buchanan, who was a 1st round draft pick after attending UVA and played 5 years in the majors. Imagine; one high school team with a 1st and a 2nd round draft pick in this area. Amazingly Fairfax HS didn’t win anything more than its District during this time.
Robin Jennings: a 1990 graduate of Annandale who did a year of community college and the got drafted under the old Draft-and-Follow rules by the Cubs. He played in parts of four major league seasons spread across 12 minor league seasons, including his last minor league season with the Washington organization in 2007 at the age of 35, fully 4 years after last appearing in a uniform.

Goldberg and Schourek, along with Marshall’s #2 pitcher Steve Makranczy led Marshall to back-to-back state championship games in the late 80s. Steve played on a number of fall teams with me and still plays in the local DCMSBL league. Schourek still suits up for teams in the Industrial League, and according to a couple of random friends, plays in an ultra-competitive basketball league along side other former Division 1 players in the area.

Speaking of my own HS of the time; I was always amazed we didn’t fare better. Thinking back to 1988, my HS started an entire team of guys who either went pro or played division 1 somewhere. The 3 leading pitchers played at Radford, BYU and GMU respectively, our starting catcher went to BYU. Our 1B played at William & Mary. Our middle infield combo both played at UVA. Our 3rd baseman was a full ride player at NC State. In the OF, one guy played at GMU and went pro, another guy played at Montomery College. That’s a LOT of talent on one HS team for this area, and they never advanced in the Regional tournament.

The best local player of my draft year (1989) was a fellow by the name of Doug Newstrom, born in Quantico and who went to HS at W.T. Woodson in Fairfax. He went to Arizona State and was a 7th round pick after his Junior year but never made the big leagues. Newstrom was the cornerstone of a Woodson team that went undefeated in 1989 and won the state championship (they also won in 1990). My personal experience playing against Newstrom; the fall-league baseball teams of that time period were essentially city-specific all-star teams of the guys who didn’t play football, and the competition was great. The Woodson varsity team to-be in the spring of 1989 got all their guys together to get a “test run” of their team and they romped to the fall league 16-18yr old championship game. Our Vienna-based team was a rag-tag collection of guys who attended Madison, Marshall, Oakton, Paul VI and O’Connell but who had Vienna zip codes, but we were good and we also reached the championship game. It was on a cold November day at Falls Church High School. We faced off against Woodson’s ace (Mark Bauch, the same guy who would go 13-0 the following spring en route to the Virginia State championship) and promptly knocked him out in the first inning without retiring a batter, racing to a 6-0 lead. Our pitcher (Jeff Ford, who attended Oakton and played college ball at a small school somewhere) tried to keep the Woodson team at bay throughout the 7 inning game, but they fought back. In the bottom of the 7th trailing 6-5 and with two outs, the Woodson team put a couple guys on and Newstrom came to bat. Newstrom connected on a towering drive to right field; I thought he had just hit a walk-off homer. Our right fielder (Steve Paasch, another Oakton graduate) reached over the RF fence, jumped and caught the ball for the 3rd out and the championship. It was one of the two or three best games I was ever a part of.

Best player from my high school Alma Mater (James Madison HS in Vienna): probably one Mike Wallace, who was picked straight out of high school, was in the majors by 22, and out of the majors by 26. Wallace seems like he should have played longer; he was a lefty with decent numbers both in the majors and in his final seasons in the minors. But he was retired at 28. He signed on with MASN as a baseball pundit in 2011. However it is worth mentioning one Jay Franklin, who graduated from Madison HS in 1971 and was the 2nd overall pick in that year’s baseball draft. He tore up the Northwoods league and earned a call-up to the majors as an 18 year old. I’m guessing he got hurt though, because he missed the entire 1972 season. He appeared in four more minor league years before retiring at age 24, having just reached AAA. Another guy who seems like he should have played longer.

Baseball-reference.com’s records are somewhat spotty on my high school; they list only 7 pro players and 2 major leaguers from my HS, but we know there are several more with pro experience, just counting guys I’ve directly played with (among others; Chris Burr and Billy Emerson). BaseballCube lists 28 guys in their database, though not all played pro. David Driver with The Vienna Patch did an article on Wallace in October 2012 and discussed several other Madison grads who have made the majors, some of whom are not correctly attributed in B-R.com either. One such player is Jim McNamara, who I’m familiar with because he used to substitute teach while I was attending the high school and he was famous for being manipulated into wasting an entire period talking about his baseball playing days instead of teaching any material.

Best player ever from my college Alma Mater (James Madison University): probably one Billy Sample, born and raised in Roanoke and who played at JMU from 1974-1976. He was drafted in the 10th round, played for a decade or so and hung ‘em up in 1986. Mike Venafro was born in Takoma Park, went to Paul VI in Fairfax and then JMU before putting together a 7-year career in the majors, retiring back in 2006. JMU is actually a pretty decent baseball school; we’ve made the NCAA tournament 11 times and several times recently, and made the College World Series in 1983 (getting blasted by eventual champion Texas and Stanford for a 2-and-out appearance; the wikipedia page is funny, JMU has no “notable players” listed. Coincidentally; look at some of the talent playing in that tournament: Bonds, Schiraldi, Clemens, Larkin, Sabo, McDowell, Incavilia. Three future Hall of Famers). However I can only find one JMU alumni who appeared in the majors in 2012; the aforementioned Rich Thomas, who appears to be a 4th/5th outfielder.

Best player I played with or against post youth/High School: After high school we played in a local amateur league for a year, then put together an entry into the Credit Union, which was a powerful amateur league in the area (which is now part of the Industrial League). After a brief baseball hiatus spent mostly playing softball (there was no 19+ league in DCMSBL at the time; you had to be at least 30 to play in the league for many years), I’ve been playing consistently in the DCMSBL since 1998.

In the early 90s, we had a local guy named Kevin Gallaher pitch for us periodically. He had Vienna roots, went to O’Connell and then played at St. Bonaventure (none of which btw is on his baseball-reference page but is on his baseball Cube page). I got to catch Gallaher here and there and he had pretty good stuff. Apparently his stuff got better his senior year at college and he was a non-drafted FA signee. Gallaher made it to AAA before calling it quits at age 29. His next move: to appear on the reality TV show “Married by America” (it didn’t work out: his bride-to-be left him at the alter).

In the Credit Union, we played against some serious talent, but I was too young to remember most of them. A couple notable names that I do remember were Steve Norwood, brother of the infamous Buffalo Bills kicker Jeff Norwood, who played alongside his father Del Norwood on the Apple team. Norwood was a local legend, a longtime coach at W&L in Arlington (he won 10 straight district titles in the 60s and 14 overall at the school; the field is named after him) and had to be in his 70s at the time but could still throw a knuckle-ball by the semi-pro calibre players of the Credit Union. Local legend amateur player Pete Groves pitched against us in the league; he now leads the Fedlock teams that have won many national MSBL titles (he supposedly reached AAA but I can’t find any records of him playing pro). We picked up a random guy off a wait list named John Bonfield who had pitched at Yale; he was one of the better pitchers i’ve ever played along side. He could throw 8 different pitches but had a failing for “enforcing the unwritten rules of the game” at the most unideal time. He once purposely hit a guy who he thought was stealing signs with the bases loaded in a close game.

In MSBL, the best players I played against didn’t necessarily have direct professional ties. The Gouveia siblings (brothers of former Redskin Kurt Gouveia were feared sluggers in the league). Garland Cooper was competitive against players half his age; he played in the Valley league but never pro. Ira Holland (who played college at Howard and was drafted before returning to school) was probably the most feared hitter in the league in the early 2000s; guys from that era still ask us about him. The ace pitcher of my current team Jason Martino signed out of HS but only played one year of rookie ball before getting set aside by his drafting team.

Anyway; if you’ve read this far, I hope you enjoyed my own little personal history of playing ball in this area.

Written by Todd Boss

January 9th, 2013 at 11:47 am

Posted in Baseball in General, Hall of Fame

Tagged with aj hernandez, al bumbry, barry bonds, barry larkin, bill bray, bill pulsipher, billy emerson, billy sample, billy wagner, bj rosenberg, bj upton, brandon guyer, brandon inge, brandon snyder, calvin schiraldi, carl everett, chase utley, chris burr, chris sabo, clay rapada, cody eppley, daniel hudson, danny hultzen, david carroll, david driver, david wright, del norwood, doug newstrom, dwight gooden, elijah dukes, eppa rixley, erik kratz, ernie lombardi, frank robinson, garland cooper, gary sheffield, ian desmond, ira holland, jason martino, javier lopez, jay franklin, jeff baker, jeff ford, jeff norwood, jeremy jeffres, jim mcnamara, joe saunders, john bonfield, john maine, justin upton, justin verlander, kevin gallaher, kurt gouveia, lonnie goldberg, lou whitaker, mark bauch, mark reynolds, mat latos, michael cuddyer, michael schwimer, mike nielsen, mike venafro, mike wallace, oddibe mcdowell, pete groves, pete incavilia, pete schourek, rich thompson, robin jennings, roger clemens, ryan zimmerman, sean camp, sean doolittle, sean marshall, steve makranczy, steve norwood, steve paasch, tim stauffer, tony gwynn, will rhymes

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