Nationals Arm Race

Here’s the final Minor League Rotation Review post for the season (Here’s April 2013, May 2013, June 2013 and July 2013‘s posts for historical viewing).  Since the minor league seasons mostly end right after the Labor Day weekend, this post actually includes a few days in September for each non-playoff team.  We’ll also include the playoff starts for those teams that made it, which has pushed this post well into September (and very late) to include all the playoff starts for our many minor league playoff teams.

For each level, I’ll put out the rotation members, their “letter grades” per start for this month only, and then throw in a quick link to show their seasonal stats for context.  For each team there are 3 distinct groups of starters: the top group of 5-6 Starters per level is the “current rotation” as best as I can figure it, then the next section of pitchers are swing-men or spot-starters or guys who had “2nd start” or longer outings worthy of grading, followed by a 3rd group of guys who are generally no longer with the team (either by D/L, promotion, demotion or release).  I’ve only listed the third category if something transactionally has happened to the player this particular month.

 

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AAA Rotation: click here for Syracuse Milb.com stats

• Rosenbaum: A,D,D,C+,B+,C+,C-
• Maya: A,C,B+,C+,B+
• Mandel:B,A,A,A,D+,B+
• Clay: A,C+,A,B+,C,A
• Tatusko: F/inc,F,A-,D,D,D-,D

• Robertson: A-
• Kimball: B

• Roark: B- -> promoted
• Ohlendorf: B+ (rehab)
• Hill: C-,C- -> demoted back down post spot starts

Discussion: Syracuse drug itself to the finish line of a disappointing season withat least some stability in the rotation.  The 5 guys standing at the end were basically the rotation for the entire month.  Tanner Roark was rewarded for a great season by getting called up to provide some long relief in the MLB bullpen and 6 weeks later is now 7-0 with the best ERA for any pitcher with more than 40 innings in the entire MLB.   Roark’s trade-mate Ryan Tatusko really struggled down the stretch and finishes with a 4.33 ERA and a 1.58 whip on the season.  Meanwhile, Caleb Clay continues his career resurgence and may have put himself in place to pick his spot in MLFA next year (well, unless the Nats hold onto him by putting him on the 40-man, not a bad idea).  Jeff Mandel and Yunesky Maya pitched well while playing out the string; both are MLFAs and both may choose to look elsewhere.

 

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AA: click here for Harrisburg Milb.com stats

• Karns: B+,A,D,A,C+,A,A+ (playoffs), F (playoffs)
• Treinen: C+,A,F (playoff)
• Cole: A+,C,C-,B-,A,C (playoff),C+ (playoff)
• Hill: B -> up/down,A-,D,C+,A (playoff)
• Ray: A,B,D,B-,D,A+,A+ (playoff)

• Gilliam: D,D+,C-,D -> demoted to bullpen for Treinen?/spot starts?,A-
• Swynenberg: D,B -> back to bullpen,B+

Discussion: Harrisburg played great down the stretch to reach the playoffs, then won a series before losing in the League Final.  Nathan Karns recovered from his to really pitch well in August and in the first round of the playoffs before getting hammered in the league final series.  Robbie Ray did nothing to damage his career advancement, pitching a gem in his playoff appearance.  Fellow HS phenom draftee A.J. Cole pitched well enough in the playoffs, good enough to get the wins each time.

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High-A:  click here for Potomac Milb.com stats

• Purke: B,A,B,B+,C,A,C (playoff)
• Demny: B+/weird game,D+,C+,C+,A,C
• Mooneyham: F,D,F-,C (playoff)
• Solis: A,D,C+,B,B-,F,A (playoff),F (playoff)
• Schwartz: A,D+,A-,B-,A+,C,A+ (playoff)

• Rauh B+,A,D-,C- (lost rotation spot to Mooneyham?)
• Fischer: -> D/L
• Bates A-
• Holt: B+ (abbr)
• Dupra: D-,A-

• Ohlendorf | | | | D (rehab)

Discussion: Blake Schwartz was the most consistent of the starters for Potomac this month (and this season really).  Mooneyham struggled after his promotion but saved his best game for the playoffs.  Matthew Purke pitched decently in the month but his seasonal numbers remain poor.  Sammy Solis had a couple of dud outings, including his playoff appearance, but on the whole I think his 2013 is a success coming off surgery.  Paul Demny seems like he’s bound for the bullpen soon; he’s shown multiple times he cannot compete as a starter above the high-A level.

 

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Low-A: click here for Hagerstown Milb.com stats

• Turnbull: B+,A-,A,B,B,A,B- (playoff),F (playoff)
• Encarnation: C-,C,B+,B-,C+,B-,F,B (playoff)
• Bacus: A,A+ (playoff long relief),D (playoff)
• Voth: D+,A+,A (playoff)
• Johansen: D,D,A (playoff)

• RPena: B+,A-,A+ (playoff long relief)
• Dickson: D-,D+,A,B+,A- -> demoted to bullpen for Bacus

• Mooneyham: A,A+,A,A+ -> promoted
• Lee: F,C+,A+,D,B+ -> d/l for Bacus

Discussion: I wonder how it played in the Hagerstown clubhouse that 3/5ths of their playoff rotation had been with the team less than 3 weeks?  Dakota Bacus especially; he was acquired, made one start and was a playoff starter.  Austin Voth and Jake Johansen were due promotions no doubt, but to immediately get thrown into the low-A playofs in place of guys who had worked longer and harder to get the Suns there seems, well, wrong.  Nonetheless, longer serving Sun pitchers such as Ronald Pena, Kylin Turnbull and Pedro Encarnacion (not Edwin, thanks to commenter Melissa) all finished off good seasons and will look at high-A next spring.

 

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Short-A: click here for Auburn Milb.com stats

• Orlan: | | C+,A,C- | F-,B-,A,A,F | B,A,A-,D+,D,B+
• Giolito: | | | | A,A,B
• Selsor: | | B-,F,C+ | B,D,D -> demoted to bullpen | A,B+,D+
• Pivetta: | | | | D,D,D -> demoted to bullpen for Selsor?/maybe not,B+,A
• Ullmann: | | | F,B+ | B,D-,B+,C-
• Simms: | | | | D+,F

• Barrientos: F,F,F -> demoted to bullpen for Simms

• DWilliams: F -> demoted
• Voth: B+,A+,A+ -> promoted
• Treinen: A/inc (rehab start),A+ (rehab)
• Johansen: A-,A,A+ -> promoted
• Young: A (rehab)

Discussion: Lots of ugly pitching lines for Auburn this year.  Casey Selsor and Nick Pivetta struggled to stay in the rotation, the team struggled to replace the production they got out of promoted starters Voth and Johansen, and the results showed on the field.  Robert Orlan was the staff-leader in innings and seems like a good bet for a full-season starter’s job next year.  The rest of this motley crue of starters leaves Auburn with ERAs in the 4s and 5s (or higher) and likely bullpen roles going forward.

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GCL: click here for GCL-Nationals Stats on MiLB.com

• JRodriguez: B+,C,C,D/inc,A-,B+ (playoff)
• Silvestre: A-,A,A,A-,A+ (playoff)
• Suero: A,A+,A+ (playoff)
• Ott: B,A,A,B/inc
• DWilliams: B+,D-,A

• KRodriguez: D-,C
• Valdez: C,B+
• DeRosier: C,B
• Waterman: B,B-
• Sylvestri: A-
• Reyes: D

• Pivetta: promoted
• Giolito: A,A,A -> promoted
• Young: 2-inning rehab

GCL’s trio of dominant pitchers (Jefry Rodriguez, Wander Suero and Hector Silvestre) powered the team to an easy GCL victory after its record breaking season.   Most of the rest of the staff had graded outings of chunks of like 3-4 innings, so it was difficult to really pass judgement on the chances of sticking as a starter.  Lucas Giolito of course earned his promotion to short-A at the end of the season and seems a good bet to be a low-A migrating to high-A starter in 2014.