This is the 4th such review of all our rotations, checking in on the latest month’s worth of production and doing some analysis. Given that the trade deadline just passed, as we go level by level I’ll discuss who is gone, who we added, and guess what may happen next.
Each team section analysis will have the same items: current rotation, changes in the last month, observations, next guy to get promoted (if its in the minors), next guy to get cut, and then a few comments about relievers.
All stats are as of 7/31/25.
Important links for this analysis:
- Big Board
- Nats MLB stats: at baseball-reference.com
- AAA Rochester stats: (all minor league stats at milb.com)
- AA Harrisburg stats
- High-A Wilmington stats
- Low-A Fredericksburg Stats
- FCL Nationals Stats
- DSL Nationals Pitching Stats
We’ll start with the Majors.
- Opening Day 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, Soroka, TWilliams
- End of April 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, TWilliams, Lord
- End of May 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, Soroka, TWilliams (back to the original)
- End of June 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, Soroka, TWilliams
- End of July 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, Lord, Ogasawara
Changes since end of last Month: Two big changes: Williams got hurt, hit the DL and was announced to need a “brace” procedure: boom done for the year. He was replaced in the rotation by Lord, completing Lord’s amazing journey to the major league rotation as an 18th round pick. Then at the trade deadline we moved Soroka. This led to the recall of Ogasawara, who will take up the 5th starter spot. It was either Ogasawara or Cavalli, who has done nothing to impress since getting off the DL.
Rotation Observations: Gore’s July was .. not good. Ironic in that he started to get trade buzz just as he was driving production wise. 6.75 ERA for the month, but he didn’t get moved so now he can focus on being good the rest of the year so we can trade him this coming off-season. Irvin improved but still had a 4.55 ERA month. Parker had a 6.04 ERA in 4 July starts. Lord is being eased back into starting so is only going 3-4 innings a start, so we’ll withhold judgement. Ogasawara remains tbd.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Ogasawara; I can’t imagine he’ll hang in the rotation and we may see Cavalli or a call-up at some point soon.
Bullpen comments: Our bullpen is now almost entirely guys who we’ve promoted from our minor leagues this season. Here was our opening day bullpen versus today (this includes 8/1 callups Ribalta, Loutus)
- Opening Day: Finnegan, Lopez, Sims, Ferrer, Poche, Salazar, Ribalta, Lord
- 8/1 post trade deadline: Ferrer, Henry, Rutledge, Pilkington, Brzycky, Loutus, Ribalta, Lara.
What churn. Finnegan traded, Lopez released, Sims released, Poche released, Salazar demoted, and Lord to the rotation. We still have a few 40-man options in AAA (Thompson, Beeter, and Eder), so I’d imagine we’ll be seeing the new guys next.
AAA Rochester
- Opening Day 2025: Alvarez, Lara, Ogasawara, Choi, Solesky
- End of April 2025: Alvarez, Lara, Solesky, Shuman, Cavalli (rehab)
- End of May 2025: Alvarez, Solesky, Shuman, Cavalli, Sampson
- End of June 2025: Alvarez, Solesky, Shuman, Cavalli, Sampson
- End of July 2025: Alvarez, Solesky, Cavalli, Conley, tbd (was Ogasawara)
Changes since end of last month: Shuman was dumped out of the rotation (as predicted last month) for Ogasawara, Sampson was demoted to AA after getting hurt and spending some time on the DL. Ogasawara as of this writing hasn’t been replaced on the AAA roster, nor have the other promotions (I have Rochester at just 24 of 28 slots). I’d guess either Shuman back or Sampson promoted back to AAA as the 5th guy.
Rotation Observations: Ogasawara had a couple of clean starts in July after coming off DL. Alvarez and Conley’s month was 4.00 era-ish and decent if not spectacular peripherals. Solesky struggled badly; ERA above 9.00, whip above 2.00. The big news is that Cavalli just doesn’t seem to have it right now; 7.50 ERA in 5 July starts. He gave up 33 hits in 24 innings; that’s just not good enough. If he’s working on something fine, but if this is what we have, that’s not good.
Next guy to get Promoted: Though Cavalli is the sole starter on the 40-man, if a need pops up I’d add and Promote either Alvarez or Conley. Conley is 30 with no MLB time so that’d be a great story, but Alvarez deserves it too.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Solesky; the MLFA who we got out of indy ball got crushed this month, and with some upwards pressure bubbling up from the lower levels, he may get slid out of a job.
Bullpen comments: Bravo to Pilkington for finally getting promoted after being excellent all season. Same with the likes of Loutus and Brzycky. As for the rest of the bullpen … not much good to report.
AA Harrisburg
- Opening Day 2025: Shuman, Luckham, Saenz, Susana, Atencio
- End of April 2025: Luckham, Saenz, Susana, Choi, Soroka (rehab)
- End of May 2025: Luckham, Saenz, Choi, Cornelio, Conley (with multiple Gomez openers)
- End of June 2025: Luckham, Choi, Cornelio, Conley, Stuart with Lara, Sykora coming in at end of month.
- End of July 2025: Luckham, Choi, Cornelio, Bennett, Huff/Schultz openers (with Sampson, Sykora, Lara each getting 1 start)
Changes since end of last month: A busy month for the AA rotation: Conley got promoted, and he was mostly replaced by Bennett. Stuart pitched for a month and then hit the 60-day DL (not good). He was mostly replaced by a couple of relievers doing “opener” gigs. At the end of the month Sampson returned from AAA D/L to make a start. Lastly, the big news: Sykora made one July 5th start, hit the DL, and now he needs Tommy John. Dagger.
Rotation Observations: Susana is doing rehab starts after 2 months of radio silence; so we’ll see what happens. Luckham and Choi struggled badly in July. Bennett’s introduction to AA has not started smoothly. Sampson’s one start isn’t enough to go on, and at 33 it’s kind of ridiculous for him to be in AA. The bright spot? Frigging Riley Cornelio, who continues to tear through the minors in 2025. 1.66 ERA and 0.88 whip in AA in July. I’ve been questioning this guy for two years; suddenly he’s one of our system’s best arms. Bravo.
Next guy to get Promoted: I got the Conley promotion right from last month; this month I’d say that Sampson needs to go back up just based on age/experience. But on performance, its Cornelio. I don’t know if he’s ready yet, perhaps he continues for another month and finishes things out in AA with an eye towards starting next season in AAA.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: The answer for the 2nd month in a row is Rule-5 guy Choi. Though Luckham may have reached his ceiling as a player.
Bullpen comments: Erick Mejia’s journey back to the majors as a reliever looks great in AA: a spotless month; 7 games, 8ip, 1 hit. I’d put him in AAA right now. Junior Santos also had a zero ERA for the month, and Thomas Schultz looks great. If they move a couple of the AAA guys up, I could see a few of these AA studs moving up in turn.
High-A Wilmington
- Opening Day 2025: Clemmey, Cornelio, Kent, Sthele, Tepper
- End of April 2025: Clemmey, Cornelio, Kent, Sthele, Arias
- End of May 2025: Clemmey, Kent, Sthele, Sykora, Bennett, Stuart (rehab) plus a bunch of spot starts
- End of June 2025: Clemmey, Kent, Sthele, Bennett, and four rehab stars from Ogasawara/Lara
- End of July 2025: Clemmey, Kent, Sthele, Tolman, Susana rehab starts plus Tejada and Garcia late.
Changes since end of last month: Bennett made 3 more dominant starts and finally got pushed up to AA where he belongs. To take his place the team moved up both Tejada and Garcia from Low-A.
Rotation Observations: As noted, Bennett posted a 1.45 ERA in 3 starts and got moved up. Clemmey continues his great season: 2.81 ERA in his 3 starts in July. Kent showed a bit of fatigue in his first pro season, driving up to a 4.85 ERA for the month. Tolman continues to be excellent and I’m not sure why he’s not permanently installed in the rotation. Garcia and Tejada’s intro to High-A wasn’t pretty; they have the rest of the season to figure it out for 2026.
However, we’re about to see some major changes here, because the team acquired THREE new High-A starters in Randall, Swan, and Linan. By my count, there’s now at least 10-11 guys on the Wilmington roster who are “starters” … which is twice what we have room for.
Next guy to get Promoted: We got Bennett right from last month; Next we’ll see Susana returned from “rehab” to AA. If it was me i’d probably move up Tolman, who’s lefty, 25 and can be both a starter and a reliever.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: For the second month, nobody really. Sthele pitched well for the month, Kent isn’t going anywhere despite having a 4.60 ERA for the season (maybe the answer is, Kent gets an invisible “injury” and gets shut down to make room for the new guys).
Bullpen comments; nobody really notable pushing for a promotion right now.
Low-A/Fredericksburg
- Opening Day 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia
- End of April 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia with Bennett making his 2025 debut
- End of May 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia with two “rehab” starts from Bennett/Sykora
- End of June 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia, Romero
- End of July 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Romero, Sullivan, Johnson
Changes since end of last month: After months, we got some movement here. Tejeda and DGarcia (finally) moved up, Roman (finally) axed from the rotation with his 8+ seasonal ERA. They were replaced with Sullivan off the DL and Johnson finally getting promoted up from the FCL despite being 23.
Rotation Observations: Tejeda and Garcia were excellent in July and were worthy to move up. Polanco was solid again but now faces a huge crush of starters in our Low- and High-A teams. Sullivan’s debut was excellent, which is nice to see. Johnson’s 2nd low-A start was bad. Lastly Romero got hit.
However, the team has created a crush here by promoting the FCL’s two best guys at the end of the month in Farias and Feliz (the FCL season ended on July 30th), plus added Sales in the trade window. So Low-A now has 8 guys for 5 spots. (post-publish correction, thanks FredMD; the Nats promoted Angel Feliz the SS, not Jose Feliz the pitcher).
Next guy to get Promoted: They moved up Tejeda and Garcia … now there’s no room in High-A even if someone in Low-A deserved it.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: We got Roman right from last month: i’d guess the team moves Johnson to the bullpen and might sideline Romero to make room for the new additions.
Bullpen comments: They finally promoted Cranz and Aldonis. Baldo need to go next; he’s 25 and isn’t being challenged in Low-A.
FCL/Rookie
- Opening day: Feliz, Portorreal, Farias, Johnson, Rehab starts
- End of May 2025: Feliz, Portorreal, Farias, Johnson, Lunar
- End of June 2025: Feliz, Portorreal, Farias, Lunar, Sullivan (rehab)
- End of Season/End of July 2025: Feliz, Portorreal, Farias, Lunar, Johnson
Changes since end of last month: The season ended with Sullivan back in Low-A and Johnson doing the last few starts.
Rotation Observations: Sullivan overpowered rookie ball as expected. Feliz finished off an excellent FCL season with another month of sub 2.00 ERA. Portorreal was solid but didn’t earn the promotion at the end of the season. Lunar struggled. Lastly Farias had another iffy month but got moved up to low-A nonetheless, perhaps to see if he can cut it in Low-A the rest of the way in a sink or swim move.
Next guy to get Promoted: Sullivan and Farias got moved up at the end of the season in kind of age-related moves. Feliz should have moved up based on performance.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: n/a; end of season.
Bullpen comments: they moved up Kane as they should have. Nobody else in the FCL bullpen really pitched much worth of analysis in July.
DSL/Rookie
- Opening day: JReyes, De La Cruz, Robles, Carrasco, Mejia
- End of June 2025: JReyes, De La Cruz, Robles, Carrasco, Torrellas
- End of July 2025: JReyes, De La Cruz, Robles, Torrellas, Carela
Changes since end of last month: Carrasco moved to the bullpen, replaced by Carela. Only 7 guys have made starts this year for DSL.
Rotation Observations: There’s no splits for DSL guys, so i can’t isolate July versus the whole year. Reyes and Carela have the best season numbers so far, both with sub 3.00 ERAs. Reyes is a 23IFA and is already 20 so no surprise here. Robles and De La Cruz have both been ok but wild. Torrellas needs more time.
Next guy to get Promoted: Reyes: he was a 23IFA and is a 20yr old in DSL: time to come stateside. This is exactly what I wrote last month and it remains true. This is a perfect example of why the loss of Short-A is troublesome.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: The two moved out of the rotation so far this year (Mejia and Carrasco) are both 25IFAs, where as everyone else in the rotation right now is a 23 or 24IFa.
Bullpen comments: Juan Lopez remains the only reliever that looks like he could move stateside right now, but with FCL done it won’t happen until next spring.
Here is a look at the free agent starters. The options aren’t great.
Starting pitcher: Dylan Cease, Zac Gallen, Framber Valdez, Chris Sale (club option), Michael King (mutual option), Jack Flaherty (opt-out), Justin Verlander, Jordan Montgomery, Shane Bieber (player option), Shota Imanaga (club option/player option), Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Brandon Woodruff (mutual option), Zach Eflin, Kodai Senga (opt-out), Ranger Suárez, Chris Bassitt, Walker Buehler (mutual option), Nestor Cortes, Jon Gray, Merrill Kelly, Frankie Montas (opt-out), Dustin May, Tyler Mahle, Freddy Peralta (club option), Nick Martinez, Marcus Stroman (vesting option), Lucas Giolito (club option), Aaron Civale, Kenta Maeda, Charlie Morton, Michael Lorenzen (mutual option), Germán Márquez, José Urquidy (club option), Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney, Kyle Hendricks, Steven Matz, Miles Mikolas, Chris Paddack, Erick Fedde, Alex Cobb, Tomoyuki Sugano, Jose Quintana (mutual option), Griffin Canning, Michael Soroka, Martín Pérez (mutual option), Colin Rea (club option), Cal Quantrill, Kyle Hart (club option), John Means (club option), Patrick Corbin, Kyle Gibson.
KW
2 Aug 25 at 3:27 pm
I don’t see where Feliz the pitcher was promoted to the FredNats, only Feliz the hitter.
FredMD
2 Aug 25 at 3:32 pm
This . . . is not good. Gore is the only starter the Nats have who could pitch for them if they were contending. Gray is rehabbing and hoping to make a cameo at the end of the season, but he hasn’t even started MiLB rehab. Plus even though Gray has been an All-Star, his career FIP is 5.51. His best season was 4.93. For perspective, Irvin’s career FIP is 4.88. Parker’s is actually “only” 4.19, even after the clobbering last night that blew up his ERA.
The Nats were desperately hoping that Cavalli was a future part of their rotation, but he’s done nothing to prove that he is. The sooner they start using him in the bullpen, the better.
Lord should get a starter audition for the rest of the summer. Fingers crossed.
And of course Sykora had TJ surgery, and now Stuart will as well.
Without multiple acquisitions, it’s really difficult to see how the Nats can dig out of pitching mediocrity.
KW
2 Aug 25 at 3:40 pm
@FredMD: you’re right. My bad, i’ll correct the post.
Todd Boss
2 Aug 25 at 5:40 pm
@KW: Cavalli’s lack of a bounce back and Skyora’s injury are a big reason I wrote the post about trading Gore. You’re right; without those two pitching in the majors in the near term at their capacities … this team has no pitching depth that can help in 2026.
Our Starter prospects, in rank order per MLBpipeline, goes: Sykora (getting TJ soon), Susana (still might be hurt), Clemmey (he’s 19), Cavalli (5+ ERA in AAA), Bennett (just getting back into it in AA after 2 lost seasons), two new acquisitions in Linan and Swan (both in High-A), then Stuart (just had TJ today), then Lara (who m ay not be a starter), then Tejada and kent (newbies, but promising). TINSTAAPP
Todd Boss
2 Aug 25 at 5:48 pm
Trevor Williams is out until at least August 2026 as well. Herz had his TJ in April and is a decade younger than Williams, so it’s possible that he could be back by early/mid-2026.
The Nats are going to have to sign or trade for two or three starting pitchers. They really have no choice. Running it back with a lot of the same guys really shouldn’t be an option. The team is on pace for only 65 wins, and as poorly as things are going right now, that might be an optimistic total.
There’s still hope that a few guys like Susana, Clemmey, and Bennett can really emerge next season, but it can’t be counted on.
KW
2 Aug 25 at 8:12 pm
And August begins with the Nats surrendering 38 runs in three games. There might be just a few slight issues in the pitching department . . .
KW
3 Aug 25 at 9:22 pm
One of the biggest problems in the pitching department is that anyone who can pitch was either injured, traded, or is struggling (Gore).
John C.
4 Aug 25 at 1:12 pm
the interesting observation for my is how similar Irvin’s stats have been for his three years in the rotation. at times he’s been viewed as a valuable piece and at other times not so much. but when all is said and done he takes the ball every fifth day and does what he does.
FredMD
4 Aug 25 at 6:16 pm
Just because one takes the ball every fifth day doesn’t mean it should be given to him. Across 23 starts, Irvin has generated only 0.2 fWAR. He leads the league in homers allowed. His FIP is 5.23, up .82 from last year. His K9 is a mediocre 6, down a whopping 1.5 from last year. He’s 28 years old, so this is who he is. The most depressing part is that the Nats very likely will have no options but to let him keep taking the ball in 2026.
Could he get better? Well, he’s had the same pitching coach the whole time he’s been in the majors. Presumably Hickey will be gone after this season. But with a lot of these players, it’s been difficult to know if it’s lack of coaching, lack of talent, or both. The greatest pitching coach in history probably couldn’t have made much out of the mediocre talent that the Nats have been rolling out there for the last several years. (And before someone screams “Erick Fedde,” please see his current 5.23 FIP, 5.32 ERA. He had one good season last year but otherwise has sucked.)
KW
5 Aug 25 at 8:22 am
If we had a better option than Irvine, we’d be using him. Similarly, the reason Corbin got a full season of god-awful starts is because we never had a healthy alternative pop up the entire season.
Mike Soroka was put on the 15-day DL after his first CHC start with “shoulder issue.” Phew. I bet they’re pissed.
Todd Boss
5 Aug 25 at 9:59 am
Yeah, that’s the biggest problem of all — these guys keep getting the ball because they do nothing to bring in better talent. With Corbin, it was kinda sunk cost, but they’re paying almost nothing to several of these others.
KW
5 Aug 25 at 11:57 am
Presumably the White Sox did medicals on Soroka before completing the trade? If it was a deadline deal they might not have had time. In 2007 the Reds filed a grievance against the Nats claiming that the Nats hid information about Gary Majewski’s shoulder. According to Wikipedia MLB never released their findings and no punishment was on record.
Interestingly Washington’s GM Bowden [SPIT] was the former GM of the Reds. Apparently they felt that he was fully capable of trying to pull a fast one.
Majewski was part of a deal that netted the Nats Austin Kearns, Felipe Lopez, and Ryan Wagner. Given that our nickname for Kearns was “rally killer” and for Lopez was FLop, and that Wagner produced -0.5 bWAR for the Nats over two seasons, it may have been a trade that everyone lost.
John C.
5 Aug 25 at 12:41 pm
This analysis provides an in-depth look into the pitching rotations and recent changes across teams, which is quite insightful for anyone following baseball closely. It’s impressive to see how detailed the breakdown is, from discussing who’s been traded or released to forecasting potential promotions and cuts. The mention of High-A starters and the overcrowding in Wilmington highlights the dynamic nature of team rosters and the strategic decisions management must make. However, it’s a bit overwhelming to keep track of all these changes—do you think the team will manage to balance this surplus effectively? I’m curious to see how these new additions will perform and what impact they’ll have on the team’s overall strategy. Do you believe these acquisitions will make a significant difference in the upcoming games? It’s fascinating to follow, but also makes you wonder if some of these moves are more experimental than strategic.
We’ve integrated libersave into our regional voucher system. It’s amazing how easy it is to consolidate various providers on a single platform. Whith regards, EUROB
EUROB
7 Sep 25 at 10:23 pm