Nationals Arm Race

"… the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same – pitching.” — Earl Weaver

Archive for the ‘tomas alastre’ tag

Minor League Staffs – one month check-in

28 comments

Voth has completely remade his career in less than a month. Photo mlb.com official

Voth has completely remade his career in less than a month. Photo mlb.com official

I havn’t been doing regular check-ins with the minor league staffs for a few years, but I have always maintained little “cheat sheet” notes on the staffs of the levels day in/day out (thanks in no small part to the daily work of Luke Erickson over at Nationals Prospects of course).

It occurred to me, doing updates this week, that the four full season rotations have been about as stable as I can ever remember them this year.  So I thought i’d do a quick swing through the four staffs, with quick notes on who has looked good or bad and what we may see in terms of movement going forward.

Syracuse (stats link here: http://web.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?t=t_ibp&cid=552&stn=true&sid=t552)

  • Opening day rotation: Voth, Milone*, Fedde, EJackson, Vargas
  • Current rotation: Milone*, Voth, Fedde, EJackson, Vargas
  • spot starts/swingman: Simms, Goforth
  • bullpen: Collins*, Cordero, CSmith, Miller, Adams, Valdez
  • promotions: Torres, Gott, Suero
  • up-and-back: Adams, Voth
  • demotions: Long,
  • dl/restricted/TIL: Barrett, Satterwhite

Rotation thoughts: A month in and the only change we’ve seen to the AAA rotation was the flipping of Milone and Voth thanks to Voth’s brief call-up earlier this week.  Voth has absolutely re-made his career so far this year, going from possible “first man to be DFA’d” off the 40-man to a guy who is forcing his way into the conversation the next time the Nats need a starter.  For May he’s posted a 0.76 ERA, a 0.68 WHIP, has a 30/3 K/BB ratio in 23 innings and has given up just 13 hits.  Man, is he found gold for a team who has traded away an awful lot of pitching prospects over the past couple of seasons?

The veteran insurance policies Jackson and Milone are both pitching about as I’d expect them to be: Milone slightly better, with better base-runner control, Jackson with more wildness and worse stats.   Erick Fedde has not been either good or bad, giving up a hit an inning and maintaining a 4-1 K-BB ratio but not showing any real dominance.  My guess is that he’ll be sticking in AAA for a while.

The last guy in the rotation may be the most interesting: Cesar Vargas was a low-key spring MLFA signing after bouncing around San Diego’s system last year.  He’s come out in 2018 looking serviceable and might be putting himself ahead of the veterans in the pecking order.

Bullpen thoughtsJohn Simms has looked great in a long-man role.  He’s quietly been serviceable at every level in his journey upwards and you have to wonder if he’ll eventually push for a 9/1 call up.  Most of the rest of the bullpen is too SSS to make real judgements, though we have seen three relievers get pushed to the majors right now (Torres, Gott, Suero) and fourth who was up and is now in AAA (Adams).  Cordero still shows the same issues that have plagued him for a while; he’s got 16/8 K/BB in 11 innings.  Barrett remains  with the system and we hope he can get back to his former self; he’d certainly help out at the MLB level.

Who is making a push for promotion?  Voth

Who is in jeopardy of a demotion (or worse): Smith, Cordero


 

Harrisburg (stats = http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?t=t_ibp&did=milb&cid=547)

  • Opening day rotation: Dragmire, JRodriguez, Darnell*,  LReyes, Estevez
  • Current Rotation: Dragmire, JRodriguez, Long, LReyes, Estevez
  • spot starts/swingman: AWilliams, Darnell*
  • bullpen: Fleck, Guillon*, BHarper*, RMendez, Self,  Ames
  • promotions: Valdez
  • dl/restricted: Brinley, Bacus
  • Missing from 2017: NLee*

Rotation thoughts: The only substantive change in the rotation from the first pass through was to replace Darnell with Long.  Dragmire and Jefry Rodriguez  have both excelled thus far, though Rodriguez’s stats look more like a guy who might be pressing for promotion (more Ks, fewer hits).  Dragmire is showing more of what he displayed last year at AA and he may need the additional challenge of AAA soon.  Estevez and Reyes are not faring as well thus far, with elevated ERAs and WHIPs.  And Long, upon his demotion from AAA, has been poor in his three AA starts, with just 6 punch-outs and a 1.85 WHIP in 13 innings.  Rodriguez seems like the first starter in line for promotion.

Bullpen thoughts:  Austen Williams has looked great since getting moved out of the rotation.  Kaleb Fleck has some interesting stats: he’s got an 18/1 K/BB ratio in 10 innings but has an ugly 5.91 ERA (I’m sure his FIP is like 3 points lower).  Fleck is too good for AA; he spent all last  year in AAA and isn’t proving anything here.  Bryan Harper‘s return from injury is going ok .. he’s got nearly a 2.00 WHIP though.  Long serving Nats farmhand Dakota Bacus got shelled in four appearances and currently sits on the D/L; he had excellent numbers in 2017 but is getting a bit long in the tooth for AA and I wonder if he’s running out of time.  One big name still sits in XST: Nick Lee, who looked promising before injuries derailed his progress.

Who is making a push for promotion?   Fleck, JRodriguez, AWilliams

Who is in jeopardy of a demotion (or worse): Bacus



Potomac

(stats link: http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?t=t_ibp&did=milb&cid=436)

  • opening day rotation: Crownover*, Sharp, Baez, Mapes, Crowe
  • starters: Crownover*, Sharp, Baez, ?, Crowe
  • spot starts/swingmen: Pantoja, Howard*, Guilbeau*, McGowin
  • bullpen: JMills*, Bourque, Klobosits, RPena, Peterson, Rivera
  • demotions: Fuentes
  • dl/restricted: Borne*, Mapes
  • Missing: Romero*

Rotation thoughts: The only change to the opening day rotation literally happened yesterday, with Mapes dropping to the D/L and (likely)  McGowin (freshly taken off the AA D/L and demoted to Potomac) likely to take his place.  Mapes has the best starter ERA … but the worst WHIP.  Crownover may have the nicest looking stat line, with a nifty 28/4 K/BB ratio and solid peripherals.  Perhaps the most important high-A arm may be Wil Crowe and so far he’s more than handling high-A; the 2017 2nd rounder  has a great whip, good ratios and is looking like an excellent draft pick.   Baez and Sharp fill out the rest of the rotation; both showing mid 4 ERAs and not really being good enough or bad enough to comment on thus far.  The one big notable missing name here is Seth Romero, who should be featuring in this rotation as we speak but instead apparently still sits not at XST but at home in Houston.  Its hard to prove the “i told you so” guys wrong when it literally took less than a season for his well-publicized maturity issues to come to the forefront.

Bullpen thoughts:  Some good and some bad in the bullpen; Rivera and Howard have gotten dinged so far, while Bourque, Mills and Pantoja look solid.  Bourque in particular now boasts a 22/4 K/BB ratio in 12 relief innings; like that ratio.  36th rounder Klobosits still looking solid; how exactly was he still around that late in the draft if he’s already succeeding in high-A?

Who is making a push for promotion?  Bourque

Who is in jeopardy of a demotion (or worse): Rivera perhaps


 

Hagerstown (stats = http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?t=t_ibp&did=milb&cid=563

  • Opening day rotation: BHill/Braymer*, Raquet*/Acevedo, Tetreault/Bogucki, Alastre/Troop*, Stoeckinger*/Johnston
  • Current rotation: Troop*, Raquet*, Acevedo, Tetreault, Alastre, Stoeckinger*
  • spot starts/swingman: Johnston, Bogucki, Held, Braymer*
  • bullpen: McKinney, Brasher, Fuentes
  • promotions: Guilbeau*
  • dl/restricted: Howell, BHill
  • Cut/Released/FA from 2017: Engelbrekt (retired)
  • missing from 2017/XST: YRamirez*, DeRosier, CPena, Simonds, Barnett*, Morse, Dickey, WDavis,

Rotation thoughts: It was clear to this observer that the first few turns through the rotation were in the “tandem starter” configuration, with each of the names in the “opening rotation” throwing roughly 3-4 innings each.  That has now settled into the current 6-man rotation, all of which now seem to be getting the lion’s share of the innings each time through.   Of the “starters,” only really Raquet has acquitted himself well, though i’m concerned about the lack of swing and miss in his game (19/8 K/BB ratio in 27 innings supporting a 2.28 ERA and a 1.05 whip).  The rest of the starters are struggling: Stoeckinger hasn’t walked a soul yet in 24 innings … .but has given up 37  hits for an ugly 7.50 ERA.  Tetreault, Alastre and Acevedo  each have ERAs north of 7.00.   Troop and Hill (both 2017 top-10 round draftees) have been less bad but have room for improvement.

The “tandem” starters have been a different story though.  Bogucki and Braymer each have been solid, with Braymer sporting a 23/2 K/BB ratio and a 0.81 WHIP and Bogucki sporting a 20/3 K/BB ratio.  I wonder how long it’ll be before these guys become the “starters” instead of the “finishers.”

Bullpen thoughts: There’s really only a couple of real “relievers” in Low-A, but one of them has been quite solid.  McKinney has a 14/1 K/BB ratio in just 8 2/3 innings and has yet to give up an earned run.

There’s still a slew of guys technically in “XST” or assigned to the Short-A roster who could fill in here, most of whom have prior Low-A experience and could contribute.

Who is making a push for promotion?   Braymer, Bogucki, McKinney

Who is in jeopardy of a demotion (or worse): Acevedo, Alastre


 

That’s a quick run through the systems.  Did anyone want to point out someone in particular who they think needs to be talked about?

Auburn Roster Announced … First look at the Pitchers

10 comments

Auburn-Doubledays

The Nats havn’t (as of the moment of publishing this post) announced any 2017 class signings … but they did on 6/19/17 post a slew of transactions to the New York Penn League transactions page, which included (nearly) their entire pitching staff.  Those transactions coupled with the official posting of the Auburn roster on their twitter page (@Doubledays if you’re not following) confirm the opening day roster for the Auburn Short-season squad.

Lets take a quick look at who made it, who didn’t, and who might be in line to be in the “rotation” as much as they generally follow a rotation in Short-A.  In alphabetical order, lets look at the arms, where they came from and where they may slot in:

  • Tomas Alastre, 19.  RHP 2015 IFA signing (Venezuela).  Was in the GCL in 2016, where he threw 19 innings in total and had an ERA north of 5.00.  Young for Short A as a 19-yr old.
  • Joseph Baltrip, 22.  RHP 2016 24th round pick out of Juco.  Was in GCL last year, working as a late-inning reliever with good results (1.36 ERA).  Likely the closer or close to it.
  • Jake Barnett , 22.  LHP 2016 20th rounder out of  Lewis-Clark State.  Only thew 5 innings last year but didn’t hit the D/L; should be interesting to see what he does in 2017.
  • Ben Braymer, 23.  LHP 2016 18th rounder out of Auburn.   Also in GCL last  year, 19IP in 10 appearances.  Likely a reliever.
  • Gilberto Chu 19.  LHP 2015 IFA signing (Panama).  Last 2 seasons in DSL, last year he started.
  • Matthew DeRosier 22, RHP 2013 24th round pick out of Southwestern College.  5 pro season, he started the year with Hagerstown but got bombed so this is a demotion.  This will be the 4th year he’s appeared in Auburn.  He was a young Juco draftee, so he’s not terribly old for the level … but in his 5 pro season he should be further along.
  • Diomedes Eusebio 24, RHP 2010 IFA Signing (DR).  Was a hitter for his first 5 pro seasons, now converting to the mound.  This will be his 2nd full season on the hill; he had a 5.01 ERA in 14 relief innings in the GCL last year.
  • Jhonatan German 22, RHP 2015 IFA signing (DR).  Reliever in the GCL last year with mediocre numbers.
  • Angel Guillen 20, RHP 2013 IFA signing (Venezuela).  Pitched the last three years in the DSL, last year starting and posting a stellar 1.67 ERA.
  • Malvin Pena 19yr old RHP 2014 IFA signing (DR).  Pitched in DSL last two years; he seemed to have a serious injury though because he was on the 60-day D/L both years.
  • Jonny Reid 21yr old LHP 2016 28th rounder out of Azusa Pacific.  Got promoted from GCL->Short-A last year, starts in Auburn again.
  • Michael Rishwain 22yr old RHP 2016 23rd rounder out of Westmont College.  Solid middle relief numbers for GCL last year.
  • Felix Taveras 21yr old 2014 IFA signing (DR).  Starter the last two seasons in the DSL with bad ERA but good K/9 numbers.

Kylin Turnbull, who is now 27, who has been kicking around the system since being drafted in the 4th round in 2011 and who hasn’t thrown a pro pitch since August 27th, 2014, is assigned for rehab.  I suppose he’ll be in the mix for starts as well.

Two additional names (Chase McDowell and Michael Sylvestri) are on the roster but listed as restricted; I believe both retired two seasons ago but are still in the database.

Likely rotation: Alastre, Barnett, Chu, Guillen, Taveras, Turnbull

Likely Bullpen: Baltrip as a closer, Braymer and Reid as loogies, DeRosier, Eusebio, German, MPena, Rishwain as RHP middle relievers.

Roster Breakdown (not counting Turnbull or the Restricted guys):

  • Seven IFAs and Six US-based draftees
  • The seven IFAs: 4 from the Dominican Republic, 2 from Venezuela, 1 from Panama
  • The 6 draftees: 5 of them are 2016 draftees and the earliest round drafted is the 18th round.  All low-round, low-expectation arms.
  • Ages: three 19yr old IFAs, mostly 21-23yr old college guys.  The oldest guy is an 24yr old IFA converting to the mound.

Now for the names that didn’t make this team but who were on Auburn’s staff last year or who were signed in the off-season and assigned to Auburn; you have to believe their days are numbered at this point, given that the team just drafted a ridiculous number of college arms in the 2017 draft (review to come).

  • Wilber Pena: just 14IP last year for Auburn with a 6.75ERA; might be hurt.
  • Yoan Aponte: signed in Nov 2016 and assigned to Auburn; no pro appearances yet.
  • Angher Cespedes; was released a few weeks ago.
  • Johan Gomez: signed in Mar 2017 and assigned to Auburn; already 23 so seems too old to go to GCL; may languish in XST.
  • Kevin Mooney: UMaryland closer repeated Auburn in 2016 and didn’t make Hagerstown roster.  He hasn’t been released  yet but he doesn’t seem like a safe bet to carry on further.

There’s a slew of other names that I had associated with the GCL who might be in the same boat: We’ll go over them when we do this post for the GCL.

The posting of this roster now makes me wonder just where they plan on starting all these college arms, especially the higher profile guys.  Seth Romero and Wil Crowe are way, way too good to go to the GCL, and Romero needs innings after missing half the season this spring.  Do they both go straight to Hagerstown?  We’ll see.