Normally i take pride in being able to predict the 8 major post-season awards MLB gives out. This year I kind of got a time crunch right when the prediction piece had to go out and gave it a quick guess instead of doing deep analysis. how did I do on predictions nonetheless?
AL MVP: predicted Ohtani, actual Ohtani unanimously.
AL Cy Young: predicted Robbie Ray, actual Ray with 29 of 30 1st place votes.
AL Rookie: predicted Arozarena, actual Arozarena with 22 of 30 1st place votes.
AL Manager; Predicted La Russa, actual Kevin Cash of Tampa.
NL MVP: predicted Bryce Harper, actual Harper with 17 of 30 first place votes.
NL Cy Young: predicted Corbin Burnes, actual Burnes in a very close vote.
NL rookie: predicted Jonathan India, actual India with 29/30.
NL Manager: predicted Gabe Kaper SF Giants, actual Kapler.
So, I got 7 of 8 right. Not bad.
Current and former Nats are all over this year’s awards. Harper wins MVP, Ray wins Cy Young. Soto finished 2nd in MVP voting, Scherzer finished 3rd in Cy Young, Lucas Giolito got a 3rd place Cy Young vote, Trea Turner was 5th in NL MVP.
Speaking of Bryce Harper; he wins his 2nd MVP award. Certainly it wasn’t nearly as dominant a season as he had in 2015, but it was still a highly impressive season. He now has 40 career bWAR at the end of his age 28 season and two MVP awards. The list of players who have won 2 or more MVPs (and who are not PED-associated) and are not in the Hall is pretty small: Juan Gonzalez, Dale Murphy, Roger Maris. One more MVP and Harper basically guarantees himself inclusion into the hall.
I mention this because as he stands now he’s already the 45th ranked RF in baseball history by JAWS, and he’s signed for 10 more years in a hitter’s park. The mean career bWAR for all inducted right fielders in the Hall is just 72 bWAR; Harper’s already well past the halfway point and is now basically entering his prime slugging years in his late 20s/early 30s.
There seems to be a lot of antagonism towards Harper; constant droning that he’s overrated or that he didn’t deserve the contract he got. Maybe you can be “over-rated” when you’ve got just one monster MVP quality season .. but two? His career OPS+ is now 142, just a couple points below none other than Albert Pujols. So, at some point the narrative has to change about Harper right?
Donovan Casey is a possible Rule-5 addition … any others?
Its our Annual rule 5 protection analysis post!
Every time I re-do a post that I know i’ve done in the past, I scan back to get the last few links. For this piece; this is one of the longest running posts I do. Here’s links to past years posts on this topic: 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010. We have managed to do this post every year, without fail, since the blog started. That might be the sole recurring piece that I can say that about on this blog. We also do a post-mortem post comparing our predictions to actual roster additions; we’ll post that the day after the roster additions occur.
Each year, around the 20th of November is the “Day to file reserve lists for all Major and Minor league levels” for MLB teams. In other words, this is the day that players need to be added to 40-man rosters to protect them against the rule 5 draft, which occurs a couple weeks later at the winter meetings. 2021 is an odd year of course, since 12/1/21 is the day the Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) expires between the MLBPA and the owners, and unless there’s an agreement in place (highly doubtful) many pundits believe the MLB-component of the winter meetings may not occur as the owners seem likely to lock out the players. So, this may be academic for now; if there’s no meeting, there’s no rule-5 draft. Maybe they’ll re-do the entire CBA and eliminate the entire concept of rule-5 with some hard deadlines for free agency (instead of the wishy washy service time clock that is annually abused by teams to screw over players’ earning potential). But for now, we’ll assume that we’re going to have a Rule-5 draft, eventually.
Here’s the “rules/guidelines” for rule 5 eligiblity for 2021: any 4-year college-aged draftee from 2018 or before who isn’t already on the 40-man roster is Rule-5 eligible this coming December, and any high-school aged draftee/International Free Agent from 2017 or before is newly eligible this year, assuming they were at least 18 as of June 5th of that year. There’s always a couple of guys who have specific birthdays that move them up or down one way or the other; i’ll depend on the Roster Resource rules and the Draft Tracker for exact details, but apologies in advance if I miss someone. Also, thanks to the 2021 season sell-off, we’ve acquired a ton of new players, and hopefully I havn’t forgotten anyone in this analysis.
Group 1: Newly Eligible 2018 draft College Players this year worth consideration for protection:
Hitters:
Gage Canning, 5th rounder in 2018. Started the year in High-A, promoted to AA. Hit decently for the year, but he’s undersized (5’10”) without a ton of pop (just 5 homers this year) and little speed (just 2 SBs this year). I don’t think he’s a prospect going forward, and he’s not a candidate to be protected.
Cody Wilson, 13th rounder in 2018: hit a combined .124/.225/.164 across three levels in 2021 as a backup CF. Not a prospect.
Jacob Rhinesmith, 18th rounder in 2018: hit .250/.340/.398 across High-A and AA this year; nothing spectacular. 9 homers and 9 SBs in 107 games. Org guy.
Onix Vega, 20th round catcher from 2018: hit .233 in Low-A this year, not a prospect at this point nor a candidate to get rule-5 drafted.
Cole Daily, 22nd rounder from 2018: hit just .193 across several levels as he was bounced around to provide middle infield cover for the lower minors. Not a prospect.
Kyle Marinconz, 24th rounder from 2018. Like Daily, hit poorly across a couple of levels as he moved around to provide middle infield cover. Not a prospect.
Pitchers
Tim Cate, 2nd rounder from 2018. 5.31 ERA in 21 starts in AA this year. Cate presents a conundrum for the team in general, and for this exercise. He got hit badly this year, and his peripherals weren’t that great (81/37 K/BB in 96IP). Despite this, BaseballAmerica listed Cate as having both the best Curve and best Control in the system with their recently released prospect rankings (side note: how does a guy who walked 37 in 96 have the “best control” in the system? Really? Baseball America’s output for the Nationals this year was, as I noted in a previous post, really questionable analysis). Nonetheless, he’s a 2nd rounder with a significant bonus figure investment (frustrating those of us who studied Economics and can express what a “sunk cost” is better than most Baseball GMs with ivy league degrees), and it wouldn’t surprise me in the least to see the team protect him under the guise that he could feature almost immediately in 2022 as a MLB reliever.
Reid Schaller, 3rd rounder from 2018: decent numbers as a middle reliever in High-A and AA this year. 48/24 K/BB in 44 innings. Not exactly the numbers that you’d expect to see someone get plucked for a MLB pen next year, so the risk of his getting selected is not high. If he was left handed, maybe we have a different conversation.
Jake Irvin, 4th rounder from 2018. spent all of 2021 recovering from Tommy John surgery, not a candidate to be drafted. Hope he recovers and shows us something in 2022.
Andrew Karp, 6th rounder from 2018: was pretty solid all year as kind of a middle to long reliever in High-A … but that’s just it; he’s 26 and was in high-A all year. Definitely “old for the level.” He hadn’t pitched since 2018, so this was a good return to the field. I’m thinking Karp could be a solid bullpen piece for this team by mid to late 2022; is that worth protecting? Would a team grab him for their MLB bullpen next year? Doubtful, but we’ll list him as a secondary candidate.
Chandler Day, 7th rounder in 2018: never assigned in 2021, spending the entire season either in XST or secretly released unbeknownst to us. Either way, not a prospect nor a candidate to be protected right now.
Frankie Bartow, 11th rounder from 2018: 5.40 ERA as AA’s closer once Matt Cronin got hurt. Averaged a K an inning, so not blowing them away. Not considered a prospect by any scouting shop either, so not likely to be a candidate to protect.
Evan Lee, 15th rounder from 2018. Eye-opening numbers as a full-time LHP starter in High-A this year: in 21 games/20 starts he posted a 4.32 ERA 1.31 whip but more importantly 104/32 Ks in just 77 innings. This earned him a last minute spot in the AFL this fall, likely for the team to see how he fares against better competition. He has not fared well, posting an ERA north of 7.00 as of this writing. So he presents another interesting case: would you want to keep a lefty with major strike-out capabilities, even if they were “only” in High-A? I think his placement in the AFL and his lefty arm means he’s going to be protected.
Carson Teel, 16th rounder from 2018: had a decent 2021 season, earning a promotion from AA to AAA as a long man/spot starter. 4.40 combined ERA, didn’t blow people away but definitely did not put up the same kind of numbers he did in 2019 in High-A. Has never been considered a prospect (has never appeared on any prospect list for this team), so is probably considered an org-arm of sorts. I can’t see him getting protected, nor selected.
Ryan Tapani, 21st rounder from 2018: like Teel, decent numbers from 2021 as a multi-inning middle reliever in AA. Nothing special; zero prospect buzz about him. It seems like he’s a decent org-arm middle reliever righty that may just play out the string for us in the high minors next year. Not a candidate to be protected or selected.
Group 1 Rule-5 Protection Candidates: Cate (Maybe), Karp (doubtful), Lee (Maybe)
Group 2: Newly Eligible 2017 High School-age drafted players under consideration for protection
This section is always easy, since we rarely draft HS kids.
Justin Connell, 11th rounder from 2017: starting corner OF for high-A this year, showed some speed (21 SB) and some plate discipline (hitting .293). Has never really been a prospect with buzz, certainly did not show any reason he’d be a threat to get picked, but did show some promise for 2022.
Group 2 Rule-5 Protection Candidates: none.
Group 3: Newly Eligible 2017 signed IFAs under consideration for protection:
For the most part, nearly all these 2017IFA under-age signings are now in the age 21 range and if they’re still with us, they’re in the lowest parts of the minors, meaning by default they are not really candidates to get drafted. But we’ll run through them nonetheless:
Viandel Pena, SS. Hit .214 in Low-A. Not a candidate to get drafted.
Ricardo Mendez, OF. The only guy in this section who has matriculated out of Low-A. Slashed . 287/.343/.440 between low and high-A in 2021 in his age 21 season, promising but not world beating. Not a candidate to get drafted, but someone who might continue to prosper next year.
Geraldo Diaz, C. hit .217 as a backup catcher in Low-A in 2021. Not a candidate to be drafted.
Leandro Emiliani, hit .165 between the GCL and Low-A in 2021. Not a candidate to get drafted.
Pedro Gonzalez, SP. was in the opening day rotation for Low-A, demoted after giving up 19 runs in 9 innings. Ended the year struggling in the FCL. Not a candidate to get drafted.
Karlo Seijas, SP. somehow stayed in the Low-A rotation the entire season, making 22 starts and pitching to a 6.84 ERA. Not a candidate to get drafted.
Carlos Romero, RP. Pitched as a swing-man in Low-A, posted a 5.00 ERA and a 1.63 whip. Not a candidate to get drafted.
Jorge Hurtado, OF. Hit .164 in the complex league. Nobody’s banging down the door for him right now.
Andry Arias, OF. had decent numbers in FCL. But he’s 21 in the FCL: not a candidate.
Jose Ferrer, RHP. Had great numbers in 2021 … in the FCL. 2.78 ERA and 47/9 K/BB in 35 IP. That sounds great. He just finished his age 21 season, and he’s not a realistic candidate to get picked, but I’d like to see him move forward a couple levels in 2022.
Group 3 Rule-5 Protection Candidates: None.
Group 4: Rule-5 Eligible Drafted hold-overs of note: these are players who were rule-5 eligible previously but who put together a nice 2021 and might need additional thought. They’re sort of organized by draft year, from 2017 to earlier. Note; draft signings from 2015 hit 6-year MLFA this off-season, so they’re not listed here).
Donovan Casey, acquired from Los Angeles as the 4th prospect in the big Scherzer/Turner deal. He tore up Harrisburg, then struggled in AAA. He’s got solid power, could be a good corner OF guy. Is he worth protecting? Possibly. I’d protect him and have him compete with Yadiel Hernandez next spring for the starting LF job.
K.J. Harrison, acquired from Milwaukee in 2018 for Gio Gonzalez. Catcher/1B guy who played part time in AA this year. So-so numbers, not someone who is threatening to get drafted.
Jacob Condra-Bogan, acquired from Kansas City in 2018 for Brian Goodwin. Never made it out of XST this year, meaning he’s either hurt or has already been cut loose. Not a candidate to protect.
Cole Freeman, 4th rounder from 2017. Light hitting 2B in AA this year, no real push made for promotion. Not a candidate to protect.
Alex Dunlap, 29th rounder from 2017. Hit .181 as a 3rd catcher backup between AA and AAA. Not a candidate to protect. Notable that a 29th rounder made it to AAA; that’s quite a feat.
Jackson Tetreault, 7th rounder from 2017. Made his way all the way to AAA, but pitched the most in AA, posting a 3.74 ERA in 10 starts with middling K/BB numbers. Is that worth protecting? Would someone look at Tetreault’s 2021 and say, “wow he could be our 5th starter right now?” Probably not since he didn’t have a 12 K/9 rate as a RHP starter. But he’s posted consistent numbers every year in the minors. Never gotten much prospect buzz. Probably considered an Org arm by the industry, but I’ve always liked him.
Alex Troop, 9th rounder from 2017. He missed nearly all of 2018 with injuries, so he’s gotten a late start. He pitched primarily in High-A this season with solid numbers, and could be a sneaky decent org-arm for us in 2022. But not a candidate to protect.
Jackson Stoeckinger, 12th rounder from 2017. Never assigned to a team in 2021, which means he’s either hurt or has already been released. Either way, not getting protected.
Nick Banks, 4th rounder from 2016. Struggled when he got to AAA, bounced between AA and AAA as kind of an OF filler guy, which is the definition of an “org-guy” in some respects.
Armond Upshaw, 11th rounder from 2016. Promoted to AA this year, where he hit .186. Not a candidate to be protected.
Andrew Lee, 11th rounder from 2015. Made his way to AAA this year, where he got shelled. He served as a swing man for most of the year in AA, kind of a typical org-arm kind of guy. No prospect buzz, not a candidate to be protected.
Ike Schlabach, MLFA from 2021 but a 2015 draft pick. Unclear if he’s rule-5 eligible, or why he didn’t return to MLFA at the end of the season, but he pitched decently in high-A and earned a AA promotion, but not well enough to be in danger of drafting.
Matt Merrill, a 2020 MLFA originally drafted in 2017 by Houston. He pitched to a mid 4s era in low-A this year and is not a candidate to get picked.
Group 4 Rule 5 Protection candidates: Casey (maybe), Tetreault (unlikely)
Group 5: IFAs: 2016 and older
Israel Pineda, C. Pineda might be the highest ranked prospect on this list, a guy who was once listed in the top 10 for the system but who has stepped back. He hit just .208 this season in High-A, but is in the AFL to get some seasoning. He’s played in just a few games so far, since catchers split time, but it seems unlikely he’ll be protected despite his past prospect pedigree.
Jordy Barley, SS, trade return from San Diego for Daniel Hudson. A 2016 IFA, he’s a SS with the best SB speed in the system, but barely hit above the Mendoza line after coming over mid-season. He hit a lot better for San Diego earlier this year. He does have some pop though and is a player to watch; is he a protection candidate? Not likely. Could someone take a flier on him and have him ride the bench as a backup infielder/pinch runner all year? Maybe, I suppose.
Wilmer Perez, C. mostly a backup Catcher in high-A, hit .206. Not a candidate.
Jose Sanchez, SS. Hit .232 as the part time SS in low-A. Not a candidate.
Alfonso Hernandez, SP. Perhaps the best pitcher who started the season in Low-A, then held his own in High-A. Pitched mostly as a starter, 119/33 in 102 innings. Not bad. He’s someone to look for in 2022, but not a threat to get plucked for now.
Niomar Gomez, SP. Threw just 6 innings in 2021. Unclear if hurt from the beginning of the season or not.
Juan Diaz, RP. 2016IFA but a mid-season MLFA pickup who was assigned to the DSL despite being 23. Not a candidate.
Omar Meregildo, a 2015 IFA. Hit .234 but with some power as a 3B for high-A.
Gilberto Chu, a 2015 IFA. Decent numbers as a swing man in high-A.
Gilbert Lara, a 2014 IFA. Made his way to AAA as a 3B through social promotion, but hit only .233 on the year.
Malvin Pena, a 2014 IFA. 5.81 era as a middle reliever across three levels.
Francys Peguero, a 2013 IFA. Toiled in the high-A bullpen as a 26yr old. Not a candidate.
Richard Guasch, RHP, traded to us by Oakland in the Gomes/Harrison deal. The Cuban was signed in 2018 and was a started all year in High-A. He pitched well, and should be a good piece to watch for going forward, but is not a candidate to get drafted.
Group 5 Protection Candidates: Pineda (not likely), Barley (not likely)
Group 6: Former 40-man guys who have been outrighted previously
Jake Noll, 7th rounder from 2016. Hit very well in AAA, solid power. But he’s already been outrighted off the 40-man once. Roster resource lists him as having an option remaining (which is true), but he’s not currently on the 40-man, so I still sense he’s R5 eligible. Either way, the demand for someone like Noll seems limited; he played a lot of 1B this year and put up good numbers … but not good enough to command a RH bench bat position-limited spot. He can play 2B/3B as well; is that enough for someone to grab him?
Sterling Sharp, 22nd rounder from 2016. Already rule-5 drafted once, then returned to the team by Miami He pitched to a 4.97 ERA in AAA this year. There’s plenty of game tape on him, so if someone wants another crack at him it doesn’t seem like the team would stand in his way.
Ben Braymer, 18th rounder from 2016. Made it to the 40-man roster in 2020 against all odds as an 18th rounder, but then got shelled this year in AAA, which led to a DFA and outright. He did not impress in 2021, but he is a lefty starter. Is that worth putting him back on the 40-man for? I don’t think so.
Austen Williams, 6th rounder from 2014. Got hurt, then was outrighted off the 40-man and remains in the system. He spent all of 2021 in XST. Obviously not a candidate to get selected.
Group 6 protection candidates: none.
So, who would I protect?
Summary of above:
Group 1: Cate (Maybe), Karp (doubtful), Lee (Maybe) Group 2: none Group 3: none Group 4: Casey (maybe), Tetreault (unlikely) Group 5: Pineda (not likely), Barley (not likely) Group 6: none
—
So, who would I would protect? As I write this, the Nats 40-man sits at 34 of 40, with 3 slots needed for the three 60-day DL guys to return later this month. So they have 3 slots remaining for Rule 5 candidates plus off-season signings (which they’ll need to do), so I’m guessing Rule-5 additions will be limited. That being said, I think there’s a couple of spots that could be opened up pretty quickly on the 40-man, especially around non-tender candidates (which we’ll get to later this year). I think all the above points to just 2 rule-5 additions, leaving the team with one free spot to make a quick waiver claim if needed between now and the non-tender deadline:
I predict we protect:
Tim Cate
Donovan Casey
I would consider protecting, in order of likelihood:
Evan Lee
Jordy Barley
Israel Pineda
Jackson Tetreault
Andrew Karp
Post Publishing Results: the team added Casey and Lee, but not Cate. See https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/nationals-select-donovan-casey-evan-lee.html
Kiebert Ruiz remains the #1 prospect in the system. Photo WP
We’re not even done with the World Series (between the cheaters of Houston and the culturally insensitives of Atlanta) but we’ve gotten our first prospect ranking. It comes to us from Baseball America, who normally has relatively reasonable rankings but for the pre-2022 season has given us some rather “interesting” rankings.
Hard to disagree with the top 2. Ruiz was already a better prospect than Cavalli when he got here, and most of the prospect shops i’m seeing have them 1-2 in this order.
House had such an impressive debut, it isn’t a surprise to see him rocket to #3. This is in line with most other shops.
Antuna at #4. Really. What exactly did he do this year to merit such a rise? He was 22 in High-A and slashed .227/.307/.385. The last time we saw him in a full season was three years ago in Low-A and he slashed … .220/.293/.331. Wow. Pretty similar, huh? During his defense of this, the BA writer Joe Healy pointed out that, oh well Antuna started out 4-67 and then “got hot.” Ok, even if you remove his 4-67 start he STILL only hit .260 for the season. Oh, and then BA listed Antuna as having the “Best Hitter for Average” in the entire system! No I’m not kidding: a career .238 hitter in the low minors is our system’s best hitter for average, according to BA. Oh by the way, he’s such a bad SS ( he committed 36 errors in 96 games this year) that the team has pushed him to be a corner OF. Great; so now we have a corner OF with no speed (17 career SBs in 246 games) and no power (.367 career slugging). I don’t mean to shower distain on the guy, but I just can’t believe he’s ranked this high by any scouting shop at this point.
Lara and Henry at 5-6 are pretty reasonable. I’d have liked to see more from Lara this year, but he’s still just finishing his age 18 season. Henry remains an orchid; unhittable when healthy, but frequently hurt. Hurt this year, hurt in college, etc. Of course he’s tearing it up in the AFL; he’s healthy again. I’m already getting shades of Christian Garcia: lights out when healthy … but never healthy enough to count on.
Joan Adon at #7. What a weird year he had. Throws 17 starts in high-A with nearly a 5.00 ERA and good but not stellar K/BB rates (9 K/9 and a 3/1 k/bb). But he gets promoted to AA nonetheless, where he gives up 20 baserunners in 14 innings to the tune of a 6.43 ERA … but strikes out a ton of guys (24 Ks in 14 innings). On the strength of that, and thanks to an arm shortage he gets moved up to AAA, where he needs 81 pitches to get through 4 innings. But since he’s on the 40-man he gets his MLB debut and throws a pretty solid game against a playoff team in Boston the last weekend of the season, giving up 2 runs on 6 hits in 5 1/3rd innings. Every other scouting bureau has him as essentially an org-guy at this point; Baseball America has him #7. I’m not sure what to think.
Carillo and Cruz filling out the top 10 is fine: Carillo by all accounts can’t find the plate with his secondary offerings and might end up being a 2-pitch closer. Cruz is young, struggled this year but the promise is th ere.
That leaves us to Jackson Rutledge. What a fall from grace for Rutledge in 2021; he starts the year as the opening day starter in High-A (ahead of Adon and Cavalli), gets hammered, is dumped to Low-A where he doesn’t fare much better, and then hits the DL for a large stretch. Meanwhile Adon ends the season in the majors and Cavalli makes the Futures game. And to think that some pundits had Rutledge ahead of Cavalli as a prospect. So, what happens next? Is this the next Jake Johannsen? Another wasted high-round draft pick in a decade of them?
Per the post-top10 release chat, some of the names just outside the top 10 include the likes of Tim Cate, Jeremy De La Rosa, Aldo Ramirez, Matt Cronin. This seems about right, these are generally the next few names in the 11-15 range on most lists.
Is this it for Mr. Face of the Franchise? Photo via WashingtonTimes.com
It has been a while since I posted. My work life has heated up considerably, but also … What is there to talk about really? There’s little to play for, no reason to call up anyone else who hasn’t already been called up, and the team (and the sport in general) faces an interesting off-season.
So, what story lines are there for the first week of October?
First things first: 2022 Draft positioning: the team enters its last series with Boston at 65-94. Tied with Miami for the 5th worst record, and with no chance of either team moving any further up or down the 2022 draft board. Washington and Miami will be drafting 5th and 6th next year; this weekend will determine the order.
Last time the Nats drafted this high, they got Anthony Rendon. The list of players drafted 5th overall over the past 20 years or so is pretty promising: it includes the likes of Buster Posey and Ryan Braun. It includes this year’s likely NL Rookie of the Year Jonathan India. And it includes a ton of busts (though most of them were HS blow outs). so we can dream on next year. The 5th or 6th overall pick might net us someone like Kevin Parada, C, Georgia Tech who started for Team USA this past summer. Or maybe another prep phenom like Andruw “Druw” Jones, OF, Wesleyan HS (Ga.), Son of the original Andruw Jones who has his father’s combination of speed and power. we’ll see
Prediction? With the Nats playing Boston (who still might net a WC spot) and the Marlins playing Philadelphia (who were just eliminated), odds are favorable of the Nats locking up the #5 spot in the draft.
Next story line: is this the end of the road for Ryan Zimmerman? He just finished his age 36 season with decent enough numbers for a bench bat: 103 OPS+ figure is just fine for the amount he’s being paid and what he brings to the clubhouse. Why not give it another go? Yes he’s got the personal services contract thing guaranteed … but I feel like there’s a solid chance the DH is put into the next CBA (both sides want it), which would give added life to someone like Zimmerman. Especially if the team decides not to really “try” in 2022 and to kind of stand pat with the existing roster for a season and allow for its gazillion newly acquired prospects to matriculate up.
Speaking of the CBA and the DH … we’ll be talking more in the off-season for sure about the CBA. I’m currently betting on some variation of the following to all occur:
work stoppage
Universal DH
minimum salary cap and continuation of luxury tax cap
international draft
Flat rate service time (i.e. you’re automatically a FA at age 29)
pitch clocks, robot umpires, lefty pickoff elimination, and shift banning.
Not all of these things will be “good” for the sport, but some will be and I hope we don’t see too much of a work stoppage.
We’re seeing some end of season prospect/farm system lists coming out; verdict seems to be that the Nats’ mid-season barrage has moved them from a consensus #30 system to somewhere in the low 20s. That’s not too bad. Unfortunately we’ve seen some variance in the cream of our top prospects’ performance that probably keeps us in that general area. The good and the bad from 2021:
top prospects who excelled/impressed: Ruiz, Grey (now graudated from rookie status), Cavalli (Nats pitching prospect of the year and only Futures game representee), House (just named #2 FCL prospect for 2021)
top Prospects who kind of treaded water: Antuna (bad first half, decent 2nd half), Lara (young but iffy FCL results),
Top Prospects who struggled/faltered: Rutledge, Henry (hurt most of year), Armando Cruz (did not impress in the DSL despite his massive signing bonus), Mendoza (demoted and poor), Romero (yet another inexplicable set of spring training circumstances and never got out of minors), Denaburg (TJ and a wasted 1st round pick), Cate (5+ ERA in AA), Cronin (hurt, then struggled in AA)
Might have to do a season wrap-up to go into these numbers more.
Next up is the Arizona Fall League; the Nats will be sending 7 or so players there. Who will we send? Well generally the Nats send players who fit one of these bills:
guys who were injured and need more playing time: clearly that includes Rutledge and Henry. Maybe Matt Cronin
guys who are set to be rule-5 eligible and the team wants see them against better competition. That includes a TON of 2018 college draftees for our team this year … from this list I could see guys like Canning, Rhinesmith, Cate especially. Maybe Schaller. Donovan Casey is rule-5 eligible and in AAA.
Oher top prospects who we want to see challenged: maybe Antuna fits here, maybe Jackson Cluff.
Extra Catchers: they always need catchers. So look for someone random like Reetz (who was just DFA’d) or Pineda.
So, my 2021 AFL roster prediction is: Rutledge, Henry, Cronin, Pineda, Canning, Antuna, Cluff.
Lastly, my award predictions. I usually do a massive post on this but I just don’t have time.
AL MVP: Ohtani (Vlad Jr 2nd)
AL Cy Young: Robbie Ray
AL Rookie: Arozarena (only because Franco showed up so late)
AL Manager; no idea. I can’t beleive i’m saying this but Tony La Russa might actually win it.
NL MVP: Bryce Harper (who yes i think pips Soto and Tatis).
Kiebert Ruiz is our new #1 prospect post trade deadline. Photo WP
The 2021 season may be lost, but the impact to the farm system will be seen (or is currently being seen) pretty quickly. And the first such indicator is the pundit’s farm system ranks. We’re already seeing solid movement northwards from our basement ranking since July 31st.
Just to be clear, every single major ranking bureau had the Nat’s farm system ranked 30th out of 30 last off season. Bleacher Report, Keith Law/The Athletic, Prospects 1500, Baseball America, Kiley McDaniel/ESPN, Baseball Prospectus, and MLBPipeline (if Eric Longenhagen/Fangraphs did an pre-season ranking, I can’t find it). No arguments; across the board suckitude.
However, the trade deadline brought us a great bounty of players. As did the 2021 draft. And so will the 2022 draft, which we’re currently projecting to pick 5th in. Here’s a list of our newly acquired players and their rough ranking in our system upon arrival (rough rankings based on combined input from MLBpipeline, Fangraphs and Baseball America’s updated prospect rankings):
Kiebert Ruiz: new #1 or #2 prospect
Josiah Grey: new #2-#3 prospect, with Cavalli being in the mix depending on the service
Brady House: new #4 prospect
Gerardo Carrillo: new #7-#10 prospect
Daylen Lile: new #10-12 prospect
Aldo Ramirez: new #12-#15 prospect
Riley Adams; new #14-15 prospect
Mason Thompson: new #16-20 prospect
Patrick Murphy: new #20ish prospect
Brandon Boissere: new #22-25th prospect
Donovan Casey: new mid-20s prospect
Drew Millas: new mid-20s prospect
Jordy Barly: new late 20s prospect
T.J. White: new late 20s prospect
And that leaves out non-rookie status Lane Thomas, who suddenly is outplaying Victor Robles for starts. It also leaves out two additional org-arms we got in High-A starters Seth Shuman and Richard Guasch.
Anyway, the point is, this is a LOT of infused talent, especially in the top 10.
And we’re seeing it in the org rankings. Two shops have done updated system rankings post Trade/draft and the Nats have made great progress:
Baseball America jumped us from #30 to #23, saying “The Skinny: Normally a team with four Top 100 Prospects would rank significantly higher than this, but the gulf between the top prospects in the Nats system and the rest is massive.”
MLBPipeline jumped us from #30 to #20, saying, “A notable jump for the Nats, though this should have been expected. Washington went into sell mode at this year’s Trade Deadline, and nine of the current Top 30 came over in July deals alone, headlined by Ruiz and Gray in a blockbuster with the Dodgers. House — an infielder with plus power potential — was a promising addition as well at No. 11 overall, and Cavalli has looked like a potential 2020 first-round steal as a pitcher who has stayed at or near the top of the Minor League leaderboard in strikeouts all summer. There is still work to be done to make this a system worthy of a rebuild — impact hitting is a particular area of need beyond Ruiz and House — but the arrow is pointing in the right direction.“
New Acquisition Josiah Grey has looked pretty solid so far. Photo Washington Post.
The Nats did what they had to do at the trade deadline, flipping away 8 veterans (mostly FAs at the end of the season) and netting a boat load of prospects. This is kind of a clearing house post to talk about what’s transpired since and what to expect.
First off, I read another Nats blog today that talked about how the nats “really have to overperform to get to 87 wins.” Seriously? is there anyone out there that thinks this team is actually TRYING the rest of the way out?
This team is now 3-7 in their last 10, 7-13 in their last 20, and 10-20 in their last 30 games. That’s exactly the kind of production I hope to see the rest of the way out. Any win between now and Oct 1st is a game that sends the team the wrong way in the W/L standings and thus the wrong way in the 2022 draft.
Right now, the team sits in 23rd place amongst all teams, meaning they’d pick 8th in next year’s draft if the season ended now. They should be able to move up and underperform the next two teams below them (Kansas City and Minnesota, both of whom are playing around .500 ball over the past month and are showing signs of life), and may even get underneath Miami (who they “lead” by 3 games)… but that might be the extent of how bad they can get between now and the end of the season. The bottom 4 teams in the league are really, really going for it, and the Nats would have to play 10 games worse than Pittsburgh (who has been tanking all year, not just since July 30th) here on out to get into the top 5 in the draft. Reading the tea leaves, i’d guess the Nats end up with either the 5th or 6th pick in next year’s draft.
Last time they drafted that high? 2011, when they picked 6th overall and had Anthony Rendon fall to them.
It should be operation lose at all costs/play the kids from here on out.
Speaking of playing the Kids, so far the SSS verdicts on our trade returns has been decent:
Josiah Grey: 2 starts, 10 innings, 12 Ks. More please.
Mason Thompson: 3 clean outings in the bullpen. More please.
Riley Adams; well, didn’t think he was going to be in the bigs, but that was a solid dinger.
AAA Lane Thomas: nice start
AAA Kielbert Ruiz: ugly start
AA Gerardo Carrillo: a little more work to do; first start was underwhelming.
AA Donovan Casey: great start.
High-A: Drew Millas: 4 for 10 with a SB, not bad start for a Catcher.
High-A: Seth Shuman: 4 runs on 4 hits, 7 Ks but 2 homers in his first start.
High-A: Richard Guasch: a little unlucky in his first start, gave up 3 homers.
Low-A: Jordy Barly SS; not a good start; 13 Ks in 23 ABs in low-A start. Yikes.
FCL: Aldo Ramirez: yet to appear.
And, in Operation Figure Out If they Have Anything in the majors … so far the return of two very important prospects to the Majors has been fruitful:
Carter Kieboom is posting a 113 OPS+ in his 16 games back. And only 3 errors! (sarcasm).
Luis Garcia, not so much … same 82 OPS+ he posted last year, thought he is showing some pop with 3 homers since the end of July.
Please keep giving guys like Paolo Espino starts; if he’s an effective starter for MLB min, then don’t try to replace him in the off-season. Thanks to his 2020 opt-out, the team maintains control of Joe Ross for one more year too, at an arb salary figure that won’t be much more than a few million. He isn’t great, but he isn’t awful either so far in 2020.
Lastly, bravo to Gabe Klobotis for making the majors. I mean, the guy was a 36th round draft pick. He was drafted in a round that likely won’t exist anymore after the next CBA caps the draft rounds at 25-30 or so, since teams basically blow off their last 8-10 picks and have for years. It is patently amazing that a 36th rounder even hung out for more than a half a season, let alone earned promotion out of A-Ball, let alone made it to the majors. The Nats can count on one hand the number of guys who they’ve matriculated to the majors from such low draft positions: Brad Peacock (who was a 41st rounder in a different era of Draft-and-follow), maybe Billy Burns (a 32nd rounder in 2011), that’s it.
Lastly, Here’s a fun fact: of the 26 players on the current active roster…
14 were in our Minor Leagues to start the season
2 were in someone elses’ minor leagues (Grey and Thompson)
Just 10 were bonafide planned members of the Nats MLB roster to start 2021.
Well, hand it to Mike Rizzo; when he gets the go-ahead to dismantle … you don’t have to tell him twice.
The Nats GM traded almost every single player not nailed down on an expiring contract in the three days leading up to the 7/30/21 deadline, even moving guys who were ineffective, hurt, or with Covid.
Quick analysis/opinion: this was a required tear down, one that became painfully obvious with the sequence of events over the past two weeks (sweep in Baltimore, Strasburg TOS surgery, Covid breakdown, etc). So, kudos for the moves. Every player sent out was no surprise to get traded … with the exceptions of Scherzer and Turner. So lets give a couple moments on that trade.
Scherzer could not have a QO applied to him, so he was set to leave w/o compensation after 2021 anyway. Could he re-sign with us? Sure. But man he really wanted to be on the West Coast, as he made abundantly clear during the trade negotiations. I’m not sure why: he listed his McLean house for sale in 2020 and bought in Jupiter, Fla, both he and his wife are from Missouri, and I see no obvious ties to California. Nonetheless, I suppose he could re-up with the Nats but it seems more likely he’d sign with a competitive team in 2022 since the Nats will be rebuilding.
What do I think of Turner moving? I’m ok with it. We’ve heard a couple rumblings in the past about his rebuffing extension offers, and at this point he’s gotta be valued on a par with Francisco Lindor. Lindor got north of $300M from the Mets. Could Turner command that? I’m not sure, but would the Nats commit $300M to a 30-yr old SS whose primary skills are defensive and speed, two skills that quickly erode in your early 30s? Probably not; I think the Nats made this move when they were presented with the prospect package knowing they’d be saying good bye to him anyway at the trade deadline next year, so why not get what turned out to be a pretty darn good prospect haul.
Here’s a quick list of the players sent out:
Brad Hand lhp 7/29/21: traded to Toronto for Riley Adams
Kyle Schwarber LF 7/29/21: Traded to Boston for Aldo Ramirez
Daniel Hudson rhp 7/29/21: Traded to San Diego for Mason Thompson, Jordy Barley
Max Scherzer rhp 7/29/21: Traded to Los Angeles Dodgers for Gray, Carrillo, Ruiz, Casey
Trea Turner ss 7/29/21: Traded to Los Angeles Dodgers for Gray, Carrillo, Ruiz, Casey
Yan Gomes C 7/30/21: Traded to Oakland for Millas/Shuman/Guasch
Josh Harrison Utl 7/30/21: Traded to Oakland for Millas/Shuman/Guasch
Jon Lester LHP 7/30/21: Traded to St. Louis for Lane Thomas
And here’s the players acquired with their likely initial assignment:
Riley Adams C 7/29/21: acquired from Toronto for Hand: AAA
Aldo Ramirez RHP 7/29/21: acquired from Boston for Schwarber. FCL assignment but was in Low-A
Mason Thompson RHP 7/29/21: acquired from San Diego for Hudson. AAA
Jordy Barley SS 7/29/21: acquired from San Diego for Hudson. Low-A
Josiah Gray rhp 7/29/21: acquired from Los Angeles Dodgers for Scherzer/Turner MLB/AAA maybe
Gerardo Carrillo rhp 7/29/21: acquired from Los Angeles Dodgers for Scherzer/Turner. AA
Keibert Ruiz C 7/29/21: acquired from Los Angeles Dodgers for Scherzer/Turner. AAA
Donovan Casey OF 7/29/21: acquired from Los Angeles Dodgers for Scherzer/Turner. AA
Drew Millas C 7/30/21: acquired from Oakland for Gomes/Harrison. High-A
Seth Shuman RHP 7/30/21: acquired from Oakland for Gomes/Harrison High-A
Richard Guasch RHP 7/30/21: acquired from Oakland for Gomes/Harrison. High-A
Lane Thomas OF 7/30/21: acquired from St. Louis for Lester. AAA
Alex Avila; injured and Covid-infected backup catcher who is hitting a stout .167 this year. Probably not surprising.
Joe Ross, who has actually been halfway effective this season and is owed around $5 the rest of the way. Surprising he didn’t go somewhere for a low-A prospect.
Alcedis Escobar: i’m assuming he’s a MLFA/regular FA at the end of the season. Perhaps teams think his production is a mirage.
Jordy Mercer: the currently injured aging 2B/utility guy, probably not a lot of takers.
Gerardo Parra: can’t get rid of the Shark!
Ryan Zimmerman: well, he wasn’t going to go anywhere regardless.
Luis Avilan: not a big market for mid-30s relievers recovering from Tommy John surgery
Man, we still had some moves in us! Just kidding.
Ok. So, like a kid on Christmas morning, lets take a look at what we got back in return. By quick analysis of dynamic Fangraphs and MLBpipeline prospect lists, these trades netted the team the following:
its new #1 and #2 prospects in Josiah Grey and Keibert Ruiz. A starter who is MLB ready and a C who is probably also MLB ready right now. Grey should slot right into the Nats rotation, Ruiz probably as well. Both are already on the 40-man.
Two other top-10 prospects in Gerardo Carrillo and Aldo Ramirez. Carrillo is a big-arm, young (22), already at AA, lots of Ks per 9, could probably race to the majors as a 100-mph reliever. Ramirez is in Low-A, is also a starter and has immaculate numbers so far for his minor league career.
Four more mid-teens prospects in Riley Adams, Mason Thompson, DrewMillas, and Jordy Barley. Adams is a AAA-capable Catcher, one of three we acquired this week, two of which could go straight to the majors and end the MLFA parade going on there. Thompson is a AAA setup guy who could be useful going forward. Millas is a lower-level catching prospect, a High-A guy who will cover for the lack of progress out of Pineda. Lastly Barley is a very young SS IFA prospect who should slot in at LowA.
Three non-top30 prospects who give us some depth in Donovan Casey, Seth Shuman, and Richard Guasch. Casey is a AA OF prospect we got from LAD, while Shuman+Guasch were 2/5ths of Oakland’s High-A rotation. Wilmington now has 9-10 starter arms for just 5 spots.
The last deal of the day didn’t give us a prospect but a 4th OF type in Lane Thomas, who may go straight to DC or may go to AAA.
I mean, you can’t help but like the fact that we just augmented 7 guys into our farm that rank in teh top 30, pushing out the bottom 7 guys on that ranking previously. Both the two major prospects from the Dodgers are consensus top-50 guys in the industry, certainly better than our top 2 before (Cavalli and Rutledge).
So mission accomplished; we got a lot of prospects for a lost season.
Coincidentally, i’ve got up-to-date all my artifacts:
Big Board: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/186nm-v5F-zTCoR2Be7TFYM3e2cZ-gYi2WVqJLEkHdmc/ . By my count we’re down to 37/40 with all these moves on the 40-man but will certainly need 26-man reinforcements stat.
Big Board’s 2021 releases populated and all acquisitions put into their approximate places/assignments. May have to edit as they actually get assigned, since the Nats have a habit of taking a guy who was in AA, acquire him, then stick him in High-A.
My private roster machinations file and Trade history files.
My private Natioanls Prospect XLS, which takes the most time since it was updated with both MLBpipeline and Fangraphs dynamic additions of new prospects. I need to put this artifact online.
Oh btw finished off the 2021 draft class data at the Draft Tracker too: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Qd5DS9GlmkQOEh_zGhOvlhHK0EegqY1uJB4mLGmRBaY/ . Busy day.
Still need to clean up options tab; there’s been so many moves since I last updated it in mar 2021.
As we get closer to the trade deadline, and it becomes increasingly clear that the 2021 version of the Nats just don’t have what it’s going to take to make a playoff run, GM Mike Rizzo should start working the phones, looking to trade every and all assets.
Per the above Cots link, here’s our total FAs after 2021: Scherzer, Hand, Castro, Gomes, Hudson, Avila, Joe Ross (amazingly), Mercer, Avilan (who had TJ), Harrison, Zimmerman. Furthermore, Guys with 2022 options that can be declined include: Schwarber, Lester.
So, that’s a TON of expiring guys who could fetch prospects at the trade deadline if the team bails. Here’s quick categorization of each type of FA and their trade value:
Pending FAs who absolutely will fetch solid prospects: Scherzer, Hand, Hudson, Harrison.
Discussion: Parting ways with Scherzer should come with a discussion with him that basically says “go forth and attempt to pitch in the post season and we’ll be calling on Nov 5th.” He’s a 10-and-5 guy, The team should absolutely attempt to get him back for the remainder of his career, since I think he’s still got gas in the tank and I think he becomes the first Curly-W in Cooperstown. Hand = obvious: you don’t need a closer on a 4th place team. Same with Hudson, who just came back from the DL and has been throwing bullets. I love Harrison, I love the energy he brings, and perhaps a reunion after the off-season could be had, but for now, he can give us some prospects.
Pending FAs who are useful pieces who can fetch something of value: Lester
Discussion: Well, this list was a lot longer before a slate of injuries (and off-the-field issues) whittled it to just Lester. Lets be honest; all those who criticized the signing in the off-season at the expense of others … well you’re right. He has not been good. A 5.00 ERA in the NL is just bad. Does he actually have any value in trade? Maybe not. Maybe he belongs in the next group.
Pending FAs who have been awful or hurt and will barely fetch anything, if at all: Avila, Gomes, Ross, Mercer, Avilan, Schwarber, Castro.
Discussion: of course, given the Nats bad luck, it works out that most of our expiring contracts are sitting on the DL at the trade deadline and are likely worthless in trade. Avilan had TJ and is done. Ross has an oblique and was not quite league average this year. Mercer a replaceable veteran 2B/SS guy who would have to be healthy. Gomes would have been a useful trade piece; hurt. Castro may never play again for obvious reasons. That leaves Schwarber, who may be out for another month and who the team may be looking to re-up anyway.
Pending FAs who won’t be moved for obvious reasons: Zimmerman
Mr National can’t possibly go elsewhere can he?
So, maybe we can net a few assets, especially for Scherzer, who we’d obviously give a qualifying offer to and thus would be expecting a 1st-round calibre prospect in return.
I have more details about signing bonus calculus and player notes/twitter accounts on the 2021 worksheet, in case you’re wondering why I separate them.
By now, you’ve probably heard about our picks and read a ton of responses in the commentary. Nonetheless, here’s some thought and insight into our 2021 picks.
Using various pundit draft board rankings (listed at the bottom for reference), here’s how our picks were thought of before the draft. Along with some commentary from me.
Thoughts: Discussed in a separate post here. Short version: great pick, great value for a guy who many pundits thought would go top 3-5. Based on where the pundits generally had House ranked, the Nats definitely seemed to get solid value even at the #11 spot in the draft.
Thoughts: MLB’s scouting reports describe him as a gap hitter, but his size (6’0″) makes you wonder if he can develop power. Despite his understated stature, he’s apparently limited to LF because of a lack of arm strength? A curious pick, especially since he was projected more like a 3rd rounder. Is this a value pick to save on bonus money? I can’t imagine so; a HS player in the 2nd round isn’t taking a discount. Also, not for nothing … another prep player. Is Mike Rizzo gearing up for a possible rebuild by going young in the draft? A completely typical Nats pick (Brendan Beck, rhp from Stanford) went just a few picks later, a famous guy who you would have thought was a shoe-in for the Nats. Based on the scouting ratings, it seems across the board that the Nats overpaid for this pick. I thought one scouting report in BA was especially prescient: “Lile’s profile has been one that teams prefer to send to college where he will have a chance to prove his hitting ability.”
3rd Round/#82 overall: Branden Boissiere, an OF/1B from University of Arizona. Law > 100. MLBPipeline=159. BA=143. Fangraphs >100 . ESPN > 100. Prospects1500: 181
Thoughts: Seems like a slot-saver once again. Boissiere is 1B limited (listed as an OF but that was limited LF exposure early in his career). He can definitely hit though: slash line on the year: .369/.451/.506 but only 5 homers. Sweet swing, not a ton of power, Mark Grace comp. Another odd pick though in the grand scheme of things.
4th round/#112 overall: Dustin Saenz, a LHP from Texas A&M. MLBPipeline=189. BA=143. Prospects1500: 136.
Thoughts: The scouting reports list him as TAMU’s swing man for most of his career but was a weekend starter this year. He had decent numbers on the season; in 14 starts a 4.27 ERA, 1.26 whip, 104/23 in 84ip. I like those K/IP numbers a lot, especially since he’s pitching in the SEC. He had a couple of rough outings this season against top SEC teams (Florida, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Arkansas all got to him), but he finished his SEC slate by pitching 8 innings of 2-hit ball against LSU. Scouting reports have him sitting low 90s and being undersized (5’11”). Seems like a bit of a slot saver yet again, but likely a decent lefty matchup reliever arm at the next level with deception. I’m beginning to wonder if the Nats promised Brady House … well, the house.
5th Round/#143 overall: TJ White, a prep OF from Dorman HS (SC). MLBPipeline= n/r. BA=360. Prospects1500: 346
Thoughts: Is Mike Rizzo sick today? he’s taken three high school players in his first 5 rounds after taking just a handful of prep players in the top 10 rounds in the last decade. White is somewhat unknown, but is listed as having 70 power at BA, a switch hitter, and is an Indiana recruit. Corner OF limited apparently, making him the third positionally challenged player the team has taken. Is he underslot? Maybe; if he’s ranked in the mid 300s at best, that’s a 10th round player projection. If they offered him anywhere close to slot he may take it.
6th round/#173 overall: Michael Kirian, LHP from Louisville. BA=274. Prospects1500: 262
Thoughts: Rizzo’s second college arm … and likely his second lefty reliever. He was a reliever for most of his Louisville career, transitioned to the rotation this year and struggled. His 2021 stat line: 4.80 ERA, 1.41 whip, 75/28 K/BB in 69 IP. He seemed to be doing fine in the rotation, but then had 4 straight starts against UVA, Clemson, Duke and UNC where he got shelled each week, then got dumped from the rotation for the rest of the season. He’s huge though: 6’6″ and the scouting reports say he creates deception and odd angles. Great; a loogy. More and more i’m thinking these are all underslot guys to pay House.
7th Round/#203 overall: Jacob Young, OF/2B from UFlorida. BA=354, Prospects1500: 200
Thoughts: A more slight guy (6’0″ and just 175) who played LF this year (to make way for the more “famous” Jud Fabian, but who is clearly a CF and also can play 2B. Listed as a speed guy with a solid hit tool, he started all 60 games for Florida this year and slashed .315/.385/.461 with 5 homers and 13/14 SBs. Not too bad; I mean, at least he had 5 homers. Per BA, he led the Gators in hits (80), doubles (16), runs (56) and stolen bases (13) this spring. Not a bad pick in the 7th round.
8th round/#233 overall: Will Frizzell, 1B from Texas. BA=418, Prospects1500=211.
Thoughts: Well, Frizzell absolutely destroyed at the plate this year; his slash line was .343/.451/.686 with 19 homers in 56 games. Lefty hitting 1B who BA says is a poor defender and may have to DH in pro ball. Well, lets let him hit his way up before we worry about where he’s playing. Despite his power, he’s listed as a plus hitter as well, so maybe the team has someone to push Drew Mendoza now. An excellent senior sign in the 8th round.
9th round/#264 overall: Cole Quintanilla, RHP from Texas. BA=300.
Thoughts: College reliever for Texas, led their staff in ERA on the year with an excellent 1.35 era/0.83 whip. 42/11 K/BB in 40 innings (26 appearances). So he projects as a middle reliever. BA notes “Quintanilla is the typical fastball-slider reliever with a 91-95 mph average fastball and a plus low-80s slider.” TJ surgery in 2018 (wouldn’t be a Nats draft if we didn’t draft someone who had TJ), but no issues reported. Decent senior pick at this juncture, can’t complain especially since he likely signs for a fraction of slot.
10th round/#274 overall: Darren Baker 2B from Cal Berkely. BA=187, Prospect1500=326
Thoughts: well, we drafted him in 2017, likely as a favor to Dusty Baker (who we summarily fired), and now we got him again in 2021. In the interim, he’s moved from SS to 2B. Lets see if its “third time’s a charm” about drafting a second baseman from UC Berkeley; we tried it in 2009 (2nd rounder Jeff Kobernus) and in 2012 (2nd rounder Tony Renda). Baker has almost no power (just 1 homer in 4 years in college) but has a ton of speed (top 10 in the nation in SBs) and is a plus defender at 2B. BA thinks he could play OF, but his arm is limited. Solid hitter (slashed .327/.402/.354). I suppose a 10th round senior sign who fills a spot of need (have you guys seen the 2B depth chart in the minors right now? Its MLFAs, NDFAs and 20th rounders).
top 10 picks Draft summary:
7 hitters, 3 Arms (wow)
3 prep, 7 college (wow)
Of the 3 arms, all three likely projecting as relievers
Of the 7 bats, two likely 1B, one CF, one 2B, two likely corner OF and House, who likely moves to 3B.
Conjecture on over/under slot needs in top 10 rounds
Players who are likely commanding over-slot: House
Players who are likely signing for slot: Lile, White, Young
Players who are likely under slot: Boissiere, Saenz, Kirian, Frizzell, Quintanilla, Baker.
First draft of this post? 5/31/2018 when all-region posts started coming out and some Freshmen got noticed.
The College players are mostly drawn from my 2018 Local High School draft coverage, listing guys who were HS seniors in 2018 who went to 3-year programs and who are now draft eligible.
Major Local College Draft Prospects for 2021
Andrew Abbott, LHP UVA (via Halifax Co). 2019 Collegiate National team extended-roster selection. Went undrafted in 2020 despite being ranked #116 by MLBpipeline. 2021 Friday starter for UVA, over Vasil and Savino. Great start to 2021 season, rising fast. Now projecting late 2nd round.
Sean Burke, RHP UMaryland; TJ in 2019, good start to 2020. Two-pitch guy, analytics driven analysis. 2021 friday starter, tons of Ks but ERA inflated. Per Law, hitting 97 this spring plus a 55-grade changeup, pushing him into top 50 ranks and mid-2nd rounder.
Zack Gelof, 3B, UVA by way of Rehoboth Beach, DE. 2nd team All American pre-2020 season. 2018 Delaware Gatorate POTY. Ranked in the 30s, projecting as 2nd rounder by BA draft prep 2021.
Mike Vasil, RHP UVA via Mass HS. Was projected 1st rounder, declined to be drafted to go to Virginia in 2018. Backed up velocity in college, more command/control guy, falling on charts. Saturday starter in 2021, still projecting 2nd/3rd rounder.
Lesser Local College draft eligibles w/ Local Ties
Nic Kent, 2B/SS UVA; solid hitter, not as much power, good SB. Fringe SS, likely 2B professionally.
Wes Clarke, C South Carolina (via LCA/Forest va): former Evoshield top-team player, moved to 1B at South Carolina, projecting 4th-5th round.
Max Costes, 1B UMaryland; 2021 preseason 1st team All American, huge 2020 stats.
Stephen Schoch, RHP (closer) UVA. 3rd team pre-season AA.
Top DC/MD/VA Local Prep players for 2021
Jackson Merrill, SS Severna Park HS, MD. Fast riser 2021 spring, rocketing into 3rd round discussion. Kentucky commit. Ends up going 27th overall!
James Wood, OF IMG Academy (FL) by way of Olney, MD. 6’7″ committed to Mississippi State, could be top 15 guy. 2021 near a BA top 10 guy. But struggling in 2021 spring, hitting near .200 and likely sending him to college.
James Triantos, RHP/SS Madison HS: great 2-way player, 92 on the mound, power bat showed at WWBA. Undersized, commit to UNC. Not getting much scouting love b/c of size and lack of high end single tool. Reclassified from 2022 to 2021, Madison’s Ace 2021. PBR top recruit 2021, now getting 2nd round buzz in BA’s top 500.
Peter Heubeck, RHP from Gilman HS in Baltimore. Wake Forest commit, getting top-100 buzz late in the spring 2021.
Brandon Clarke, LHP from Rock Ridge HS. PBR Virginia top 10 for 2021 class mid 2019. Dirtbags summer team. had TJ to miss most of 2020. Alabama commit, up to 96-97 spring 2021 and in BA top 50. Big-time riser, possibly 1st rounder. PBR top recruit 2021. BA rankings dropping badly June 2021
Kyle Robinson, RHP from Marshall. Texas Tech commit. PBR top recruit 2021. Likely ranked too low to go in top few rounds, seems bound for college.
Other DC/MD/VA Local Prep players for 2021
Elijah Lambrose, OF from Stafford, All 5D region as a sophomore in 2019. NovaNine top 100 for 2019 as sophomore. 1st team VHSL All-5A in 2019 as sophomore. PBR 2019 Futures game invitee. South Carolina commit, PBR top recruit 2021.
Casey Cook, SS/RHP from Freedom-South Riding. NovaNine top 100 for 2019 as sophomore, early commit to UNC. PBR Virginia top 10 for 2021 class mid 2019. Mariucci Starts summer team. PBR top recruit 2021.
Wyatt Shenkman, RHP Riverside HS. Early commit to ECU, PBR top recruit 2021.
Colin Tuft, Madison C, early commit to UVA. PBR top recruit 2021.
Nick Lottchea, OF Westfield; full time starter as a freshman. All 6D region as a sophomore. NovaNine top 100 for 2019 as sophomore. 2nd team VHSL All-6A in 2019 as sophomore.
Josh Goodrich, C TC Williams. 2nd team all Class 6 Occoquon Region in 2018 as a freshman. Team Aces summer team.
Danny Salisbury, 1B Annandale. 2nd team all Class 6 Occoquon Region in 2018 as a freshman. 2nd team All 6C as sophomore in 2019.
Jacob Orr, MIF Thomas Johnson (Frederick). At 2018 PG Junior Nationals. Team Elite summer team, early commit to Maryland.
Nathan Knowles, RHP Yorktown. All 6D region as a sophomore. NovaNine top 100 for 2019 as sophomore. PBR 2019 Futures game invitee
Nick Guerra, 2B from Justice (formerly JEB Stuart): all 6C region as sophomore in 2019. NovaNine top 100 for 2019 as sophomore
Dean Kampschror, OF from Justice. all 6C region as sophomore in 2019. NovaNine top 100 for 2019 as sophomore
Nathan Williams, RHP from Forest Park. all 6C region as sophomore in 2019. NovaNine top 100 for 2019 as sophomore
Evan Smith, 2B from Briar Woods. All 5C region as sophomore in 2019. NovaNine top 100 for 2019 as sophomore. 2nd team VHSL All-5A in 2019 as sophomore
Devon Zavacky, OF from Paul VI. VISAA Division I all-state in 2019 as sophomore.
Caleb McAlister, OF from Stafford, All 5D region as a sophomore in 2019. NovaNine top 100 for 2019 as sophomore
Mike Shanahan, DH from Massaponax. All 5D region as a sophomore in 2019.
Kevin Mackmin, 2B from Westfield. NovaNine top 100 for 2019 as sophomore.
Ryan Cuadros, OF from Lake Braddock. PBR 2019 Futures game invitee
J.T. Carter, C from Fredericksburg Christian. PBR 2019 Futures game invitee
Extended DC/MD/VA Prep players (outside DC Area) on the radar.
T.R. (Timothy) Williams, RHP from Page County (the State Class 2 champs) is the State 2-A POTY as a *freshman*. 2nd team USA Today all-state as a Freshman in 2018. Member of the US U15 National team that competed in Panama in 2018. Early commit to Virginia Tech (despite interest from Vanderbilt, Auburn, UVA). Region 2B POTY in 2019 as sophomore. 1st team VHSL all-2A in 2019 as sophomore
Jay Woolfolk, RHP/C, SS from Benedictine HS (Midlothian). VISAA Division I all-state in 2019 as sophomore. PBR Virginia class of 2021 #1 ranked player mid 2019. BA #36 for 2021 class nationwide in Sept 2019
Griffin O’Ferrall, SS from St. Christophers (Richmond): VISAA Division I all-state in 2019 as sophomore
Ethan Ott, RHP/util from Greenbriar Christian (Chesapeake). VISAA Division II all-state in 2019 as sophomore. 2019 All-tidewater as a sophomore.
Bryce Post, SS from Warren County HS. All Region 3B 1st team 2019 as sophomore. 2nd team VHSL all-3A in 2019 as sophomore
Hunter Powell, Util from William Monroe HS. All Region 3B 1st team 2019 as sophomore.
Sam Slevin, OF from Cox HS (Virginia Beach). 1st team VHSL All-6A in 2019 as sophomore. 1st team all-Tidewater 2019 as sophomore.
Fenwick Trimble, Util from Cox HS (Virginia Beach). 2nd team VHSL All-6A in 2019 as sophomore.
Christian Martin, DH Amherst County HS. 1st team VHSL all-4A in 2019 as sophomore
Bryce Suters, OF Broadway HS. 1st team VHSL all-3A in 2019 as sophomore
Matthew Buchanan, RHP Lebanon HS. 1st team VHSL all-2A in 2019 as sophomore
Matt Arnold, 3B Chatham HS. 1st team VHSL all-2A in 2019 as sophomore
Kolby Barnes, C Galax HS. 1st team VHSL all-aA in 2019 as sophomore
Carter Keith, OF Auburn HS. 1st team VHSL all-aA in 2019 as sophomore
