Nationals Arm Race

The 2025 Nats trade deadline has come and gone, and I have to admit, I’m surprised at how “well” the team did in moving its assets. In five separate deals the team moved nearly every one of its expiring contracts or useful-but-spare parts pieces and netted a ton of actual prospect depth along the way.

Earlier this month I previewed what we had to offer teams, and I went over a rather pessimistic take on what I thought we’d get in return for players. As it turned out, of everyone discussed, the only three non-injured guys we didn’t manage to move were Salazar, Bell, and deJong (none really a surprise given their overall performance for the season), and then on top of that we managed to move an outfielder in Alex Call who, while we like him, was certainly spare parts given the massive amount of OF depth we have in the system (in no particular order, Wood, Crews, Young, Lile, Hassell, Pinckney all at AAA or higher).

Lets take a quick run through the moves and talk about the value of the prospects we got back, which now populate a big chunk of our top 30 on the MLBpipeline board. As the day progressed and as of right now, our Big Board is updated with all transactions, with all newly acquired players assigned to their new levels.

Executive Summary: we traded 6 guys off the active roster, got back 10 prospects, 6 of which now sit in our top 30 as per mlbpipeline’s rankings. As I list them below i’ll put their new spot in our top 30.

Trade #1: Amed Rosario traded to NYY for #24 RHP reliever Clayton Beeter, OF Browm Martinez. Beeter is a former 2nd rounder, setup type guy, 40-man roster already, and is in AAA now but may get called up since we suddenly have some bullpen spots open. Big arm, lots of Ks, lots of walks. Martinez is the proverbial lottery ticket, an 18yr old in DSL who we immediately put onto the 60-day DL upon acquisition.

Trade #2: Chafin & Garcia traded to LAA for LHP reliever Jake Eder, 1B Sam Brown. Neither Eder or Brown are top 30 prospects; Brown in AAA with some MLB time this year, while Brown is repeating AA this year. Still, not bad return for two guys we signed off the veteran/MLFA heap in May and July respectively.

Trade #3: Mike Soroka traded to CHC for #11 OF Christian Franklin, #13 SS Ronny Cruz. Franklin heads to AAA, is an undersized corner type (similar to Lile) and adds to our existing OF depth, kind of surprising acquisition given what we already have in that regard. Cruz seems to be the prize, a 3rd round prep kid drafted last year, given decent money and who has solid power grades despite being a SS.

Trade #4: Kyle Finnegan traded to Det for #23 RHP starter Josh Randall and RHP starter RJ Sales. Randall is the prize; a 3rd rounder starter who heads to High-A sinker/slider guy with a 4.18 ERA this year in Low-A and who had just been moved up to High-A (he was assigned to Wilmington for us). Sales was a 10th rounder last year who doesn’t have he same upside, though he has far better numbers in Low-A this year than Randall and reports to our Low-A directly.

Trade #5: Alex Call traded to LAD for RHP starter #10 Sean Paul Linan and RHP starter #12 Eriq Swan. Linan seems to be the prize here, a 20-yr old IFA with really good K numbers in High-A this year to go along with a 2.65ERA. They even called him up for 2 spot starts in AAA (he got shelled). But don’t sleep on former 4th rounder Swan, a strong arm type who’s relatively new to pitching but has effortless upper 90s velocity.

So, to summarize, here’s where these 10 guys are reporting:

• AAA: OF Franklin, RHP reliever Beeter, LHP reliever Eder
• AA: 1B Brown
• High-A: three new SPs Randall, Swan, Linan
• Low-A: new SP Sales
• FCL: SS Cruz
• DSL: OF Brown

Possible Minor League impacts:

AAA: Beeter and Eder are both 40-man guys and we’re suddenly down a bunch of players at the MLB level so they may get callups soon. With Call’s trade, Hassell likely gets called up so Franklin can go right into starting lineup in Rochester.

AA: Brown joins a team that just promoted 1B only Boissiere and who has 1B-only Naranjo on the roster as well; not too much playing time to split when you have three primary 1Bs. Naranjo may be odd-man out, either going back to High-A or getting released since he’s a MLFA with little investment.

High-A: Three new SPs, all of whom are decent prospects, will stress that rotation as it is made up right now, especially since the team just promoted both Tejada and Garcia. There’s just not enough innings to go around in Wilmington right now and something will have to give. Kent isn’t going anywhere, though he’s showing signs of fatigue. Tolman is kind of a swingman type but has great numbers. Sthele is a fan favorite but may be topped out and could move to the pen. They’ve already moved out Arias and Caceres. Should be interesting to see how this rotation shakes out.

Low-A: Also just added three new arms via promotion in Sullivan, Farias, and Feliz and now they have 8 starters for 5 spots. There’s not an obvious existing candidate to dump out of the rotation to make way necessarily.

FCL: well, we just assigned our $8.2M SS Willits to FCL; Cruz isn’t playing above him. We also have $2.5M SS Coy Jones there. Maybe Cruz and Jones become 2B and 3B and get SS time here and there.

DSL: Brown immediately to 60-day DL, a curious acquisition to get someone who’s hurt upon arrival.

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Judgement: love the pouring in of arms. Six arms, some of whom immediately help in the bullpen, others who might stick as starters or who add to the roster of possible relievers. Why has our bullpen been so bad lately? Because we have not had the pipeline of starters-turned-relievers that we need from the last few drafts. Now we have a bunch more candidates for that.

All in all, a solid trade deadline haul.

I got a text from an old friend who I rarely chat with yesterday while out at dinner; Travis Sykora, seemingly out of nowhere, has to have Tommy John surgery.

What a dagger.

Sykora, of course, is our top prospect (or perhaps 2nd best with the addition of Eli Willits, who most prospect shops were installing above Sykora even before this news) and was a key near-term building block that this team could point to as a contributor that could help turn the tide on this 5-6 year “rebuilding” era. Now he’s suffered a mid-season UCL injury, which as we’ve now seen recently with Cavalli, Bennett, and Grey basically turns into a 1.5 season loss (the rest of this season and all of next).

My question is this: based on this injury, the team’s current form, the recent axing of the long-time GM, and the 2025 HS-heavy draft … are we about to see a sell-off and another bottoming out?

More and More I think the answer is yes.

The 2025 draft did not get one marquee player who can help this team in the near term; we could have drafted a polished college starter in Anderson and had him on the fast track to the MLB rotation by 2027, but we didn’t; instead we blew all our money on 17=18yr olds who might show up by next decade. Grey is out until next spring. Cavalli was out for nearly 2 years and is not looking like he’s come back in AAA. We’ve just lost Sykora. Susana has a sprained UCL now and is trying to come back, but he seems like a ticking time bomb. We lost Herz to TJ. Crews remains out (and, not for nothing hasn’t exploded onto the MLB scene).

It’s just too many things to work around, not if you’re not willing to spend money.

So what would this look like? A “sell-off?” Well; it would mean MacKenzie Gore out the door. He’s still got two years of control (as does Garcia, Grey, Adams, and Thompson) but he’s the prize. But he’s the one teams have to be asking about right now. If you’re not going to even try to compete for 3 more years, and you have a top-end arm in a league starved for them, and he’s represented by Boras (which means he’s never resigning), then … cash in. Cash in and sell high.

The team is 20 games under .500; what’s the point of a near Ace starter anymore? Trade him to a team with a thousand prospects, get a haul, and go from there.

Post publish update: after writing this, i see that WP’s Barry Svrluga basically wrote the same thing. Great minds think alike.

With so many “senior signs” this year (five), I thought it’d be interesting to see our history with these guys and how they’ve turned out.

For definition purposes, a “Senior Sign” is a College Senior or a college player with no remaining eligibility who is drafted usually in the 8th, 9th, or 10th round entirely to save bonus dollars on their pick to allocate that money elsewhere in the draft. Usually these players sign for $10k these days, though in the early days we often gave them $25-$30k. The deck is already stacked against these guys: the team has almost zero bonus dollars invested in them, they’re already “old” the moment they arrive in Florida, and they have to be doubly as good as a guy with even a slot bonus in order to stick around.

Not only that, but (as a senior sign himself once told me), these guys generally have finished four years of college, may even have a degree, and find themselves at 22 or even 23 heading to a spring training facility full of 18-19 yr olds coming over from the DSL who barely speak English, are just as good but 4 years younger, and who are killing themselves for a few hundred dollars a week. These guys may say to themselves, “man, these guys are just as good as me but 4 years younger and with a ton more bonus dollars” and just hang ’em up.

The concept of these senior draftee draft picks in the back half of the top 10 rounds really only begun existing and being important starting with the draft slotting/bonus cap timeframe, which was implemented starting with the 2012 draft. So, we’ll go through these Senior signs starting with the 2012 class.

2012:

• Craig Manuel, C. 10th round $25k from Rice. Played for 4 years, made it to AA as a mostly backup catcher. had some local ties (born in Rockville MD). Decent career.
• Derek Self, RHP Reliever 9th round $25k from Louisville. Played out his entire 6-year ML contract with us, made it to AAA as a solid middle reliever. That’s a great outcome.

2013:

• David Napoli, RHP reliever 8th round $15k from Tulane. Couldn’t make the jump to High-A released after three seasons.
• Jake Joyce, RHP reliever 9th round $15k from Va Tech. Got one season in Short-A bullpen, released. This is basically the floor for a senior sign; one season in the pros, then cut.
• Brennan Middleton, SS 10th round $15k sign from Tulane. Two years in Low-A, released.

2014:

• Matthew Page, OF 10th round $30k from Oklahoma Baptist: Hung around for four years, got to High-A before released.

2015:

• David Kerian, 1B 9th round $25k from Illinois: released from Short-A after two seasons in Auburn.
• Taylor Guilbeau, LHP 10th round $25k from Alabama: turned into a decently effective LHP reliever for years, flipped to Seattle to help acquire Hunter Strickland in 2019. Got called up to Seattle’s MLB team, then got hurt. Waived, claimed by AZ, outrighted in 2021, then released. Shoulder injuries are brutal sometimes. First of our Sr. Signs to make the majors, though not with us.

2016:

• Joey Harris, C 9th rounder $10k from Gonzaga: played a year in rookie ball, got hurt and missed all of 2017, then released at the end of 2018 from low-A.
• Paul Panaccionne, SS 10th rounder $10k from Grand Canyon. played parts of 3 seasons and retired.

2017:

• Jared Brasher, RHP 8th rounder $10k from Samford: a weird one: he was in his 3rd season in Low-A and was pitching decently mid 2019 season when he was suddenly released. He had a sub 3.00 ERA but a lot of walks just prior to being released. I wonder if this was off-the-field related.

2018:

• Cropley, Tyler, C 8th rounder 10k from Iowa; we released him in 2020, but he got picked up by Kansas City and made it to AAA with them, even getting an NRI to MLB camp in 2024. Released ST 2024. Not a bad career.
• Driskill, Tanner, RHP 9th 10k from Lamar; missed two full years to injury and Covid, then got shelled in 2021 and was released.
• Shaddy, Carson, 2b 10th rounder 10k from Arkansas-Fayetteville. had one short-A season then retired the next spring.

2019:

• Pratt, Andrew, C, 10th round $10k from Lubbock Christian: missed Covid year, played in 2021 at HighA, and was probably released at the end of the 2021 season. MILB.com never recorded his official release and has him officially still active.

2020:

• Lindsly, Brady, 5th round $10k Ca signing from Oklahoma: Ironic that we signed Cavalli’s college catcher to an underslot deal so we could pay him overslot the same year. But, Lindsly is active to this day, performing classic org-guy backup catcher duties with two NRIs the last two seasons to help with Spring Training catcher duty. He’s 27 now, but still has one more year before hitting 6years in the org.

2021:

• None: we didn’t have a single throw-away signing this year, likely because of the Covid year. We did sign a slew of college “seniors,” but they all likely had another year of eligibility due to the lost season.

2022:

• Stehly, Murphy, 10th round 3B from Texas $10k: As we speak, the starting 3B in AA Harrisburg (thought he just hit the DL) and is slashing .328/.417/.500 there this year. Impressive. Might be one of our best Sr. Signs yet.

2023:

Our first real major foray into draft dollar manipulation, as we needed to find an extra $1.5M or so to sign Sykora. So we punted on 5 picks and got him. Looking like a great decision so far, at least as far as Sykora’s development goes.

• Dugas, Gavin, 6th round 2B from LSU $20k; destroyed low-A pitching in 2024, hasn’t been able to keep it going in High-A but still active.
• Snell, Ryan, 7th round C from Lamar $20k; barely played in rookie league in 2023, then retired mid 2024 before taking the field.
• Simpson, Jared*, 8th round LHP from Iowa $20k: missed almost all of 2024 with injury, but has been a decent middle reliever for High-A this season. Needs to cut down on walks.
• Schultz, Thomas, 9th round RHP from Vanderbilt $20k; has earned two promotions in 2025 and is now in AA bullpen.
• Glasser, Phillip*, 10th round SS/2B from Indiana $20k. Promoted twice in 2024, now hitting .300 starting in AA as a “play anywhere” kind of guy (SS, 2B, LF, etc).

2024:

The Nats took these draft bonuses to a new low, paying two guys just $2k. I mean, did that even cover their flight to Florida?

• Ross, Jackson, 3B 9th rounder from Ole Miss $2k: Bashed his way out of Low-A in a month, struggling in High-A as we speak.
• Johnson, Luke, RHP 10th rounder from UMBC: $2k. Weird usage for Johnson so far; he’s 23 and is basically unhittable in the FCL, was promoted for a spot start (4ip, 2h, 0r) and then was sent back down. He’s just been called back to Low-A to presumably take a spot in the rotation, so we’ll see what he’s got.

2025:

Taking a page out of 2023, we have five senior signs to shake out enough cash to sign three prep kids to overslot deals. Technically Boston Smith getting $50k likely disqualifies him based on my own criteria, but it was still a huge haircut off his $386k slot.

• Boston Smith, C/OF from Wright State $50k; some scouts liked him, and the $50k versus the $5-$10k figure may have factored in here; we probably were competing with other teams looking at him as a senior sign and threw some extra dollars here.
• Julian Tonghini, RHP from Arizona $10k
• Riley Maddox, RHP from Ole Miss $10k
• Wyatt Henseler, 2B/3b from TAMU $10k
• Hunter Hines, 1B from Miss State $5k

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So, who has been the best? Probably Guilbeau, the only guy on this list to make the Majors.

The best career might be Derek Self, playing out his entire ML contract. Cropley made it to AAA for another team. Lindsley has been in AAA for a couple years now. Perhaps Stehly has the best shot right now. Clearly the deck is stacked against them.

It did not take Baseball America long to provide an updated top 30 for the Washington Nationals (and the rest of the league) post Draft, and I was surprised to see where our 1-1 pick Willits ended up. That would be atop our system rankings.

BA also took the opportunity to “graduate” a few guys and to tweak some of the rankings for players who have struggled badly this year (but, they did not seem to tweak rankings for those who have over-performed this round). They did an early June release of rankings, and now a mid July, so we have a six week differential of ranks that I’ll discuss below.

Here’s the top 30, plus a few in the 31-35 range that were likely “pushed down” by our 2025 top draft picks.

Rank	First Name	Last Name	Position
1	Eli	Willits	SS
2	Travis	Sykora	RHP (Starter)
3	Jarlin	Susana	RHP (Starter)
4	Brady	House	SS/3B
5	Alex	Clemmey	LHP (Starter)
6	Luke	Dickerson	SS/CF
7	Daylen	Lile	OF (CF)
8	Ethan	Petry	1B/OF
9	Coy	James	SS
10	Cade	Cavalli	RHP (Starter)
11	Seaver	King	SS
12	Caleb	Lomavita	C
13	Landon	Harmon	RHP
14	Robert	Hassell III	OF (CF)
15	Jake	Bennett	LHP (Starter)
16	Yohandy	Morales	3B
17	Angel	Feliz	3B/SS
18	Tyler	Stuart	RHP (Starter)
19	Miguel	Sime Jr.	RHP
20	Brayan	Cortesia	SS
21	Jackson	Kent	LHP (Starter)
22	Daniel	Hernandez	C
23	Andry	Lara	RHP (Starter)
24	Yoel	Tejada Jr.	RHP (Starter)
25	Garcia	Davian	RHP (Starter)
26	Cornelio	Riley	RHP (Starter)
27	Jorgelys	Mota	SS
28	Kevin	Bazzell	C/3B
29	Sam	Peterson	OF (CF)
30	Sir Jamison	Jones	CA
31	Cayden	Wallace	2B/3B
32	Andrew	Pinckney	OF (Corner)
33	Elijah	Green	OF (CF)
34	Cristian	Vaquero	OF (CF)
35	Robert	Cranz	RHP (Reliever)

Now for some observations and commentary.

Note: not all five of these new 2025 draft picks have signed as of this writing. I think they will sign because its 2025 and players in the top 10 don’t get drafted unless they’re going to sign, but it does bear mentioning that not all of these players are officially on the team as of this writing on 7/21/25. This mostly applies to 5th rounder James, who seems like he’s a better prospect than two of the prep kids drafted ahead of him, and I wonder if the bonus dollars are there.

• Willits enters BA’s list at 1-1, above Sykora. This is notable because Sykora was ranked 28th the last time that BA did an overall Minor League top 100 list in early July. So that also means Willits is not only starting in BA’s top 100 list for the entirety of the minors, he’s starting it likely in the 20-25 range. That’s heady territory. Crews started his pro career ranked #4 on BA’s July 2023 post draft list for some context.
• 2025 2nd Rounder Ethan Petry pops in at #8 and 5th rounder Coy James at #9. These two slot in right ahead of Cavalli, King, and Lomavita. Interesting how our 2025 picks start out ahead of our two top 2024 picks (Dickerson notwithstanding of course).
• The more i’m reading about this James guy, the more I’m thinking this 5th rounder is a massive steal.
• Landon Harmon comes in at #13, and our last big-time bonus guy from this draft Miguel Sime comes in at #19. That seems about right for untested/high risk Prep RHPs.

Those are the new guys. How about changes to existing player ranks relative to where they were last month, and accounting for the five new guys slotting in? Here’s what’s happened in the last 6 weeks:

• Players ranked 2-7 have not changed since June. Should they? Yeah probably: House is starting in the majors but is behind Susana, who has missed two months. Clemmey and Dickerson have really impressed. Lile made it to the show but hasn’t stuck in the starting lineup. Would you adjust these guys up or down a bit? Yes.
• All the players ranked around the five new names have mostly stayed ranked the same … except for those we’re about to talk about.
• Wallace has taken a massive nosedive: he was #16 six weeks ago and is now out of the top 30 entirely. Talk about a weird turn of events for him so far this season.
• Same with Bazzell: he’s been dropped more than 10 spots in the last two months.
• Minor slotting changes for Stuart (still on the DL) and Cortesia, who they inexplicably DROPPED a slot relative to his ranking in June despite him hitting .400 for the first month of the DSL. I mean, what else does the guy have to do?
• Same with Cornelio; he’s dropped relative to his ranking 6 weeks ago. Um, explain that to me like i’m a 5 year old. in 2025, Cornelio made 7 starts with a 3.03 ERA in High-A, got promoted, and has IMPROVED his numbers in AA. He’s dominating there, with a 2.32 ERA, a 1.01 whip, a .169 BAA. I mean, how does this guy get dropped down in relative rankings, even if you’re not doing a full re-evaluation?
• Sam Peterson and Sir Jamison Jones get ranked for the first time at #29 and #30.
• The five guys now pushed outside of the top 30, if I just take the five missing names from June’s rankings, are in order Wallace, Pinckney, Green, Vaquero, and Cranz. Can’t really complain about any of these five now being outside the top 30, based on who got added and how they’ve played in 2025.
• Maaaaaybe you can complain about Cranz, who’s got a 2.02 ERA this season and has crushed it, albeit in low-A as a 22yr old. But hey, he’s a reliever. I don’t think relievers, backup catchers, or utility infielders belong in the top 30 of any system, but that’s just me.

Who’s missing?

• We’ve now apparently graduated Lord, Henry, and Rutledge due to mostly service time (Lord has more than the 50 ip, while Henry & Rutledge will soon enough). They were ranked 14, 15, and in the mid-30s in June.
• No Victor Hurtado, our $2.8M bonus baby from the 2023 IFA class, who continues to struggle repeating the DSL as an 18 yr old, even if Fangraphs loves him (and has him #15 in the system).
• No Armando Cruz, our $3.9M bonus baby from the 2021 IFA class either. At some point production talks, not dollars.
• Rafael Ramirez Jr has been on the edges of top 30s since his acquisition, but has been hurt all year.
• No Kevin Made, who hit .352 in June and (so far) .088 in July.
• No Nasim Nunez, what ever you think of this guy. A glove can only take you so far (he’s hitting .196 in AAA this year).

Ahead of the 2025 draft, which has no real consensus for 1-1 and the possibility of a risky HS kid taking at the top, I thought it’d be fun to document my own personal reactions to our 1-1 picks, in the immediate aftermath, then see how my writing aged. When, as it turned out, we DID take a risky HS kid at the top (but not the one most of us thought), I wasn’t aghast necessarily, but surprised. And it got me thinking: I’m on record writing these instant reactions for years; how have my “hot takes” aged?

So, here’s a fun “hindsight is 20/20” look at my instant reactions to see if I was spot on or way off.

If we had multiple 1st rounders I’ll just talk about the first one (only comes up once with the Kieboom/Dunning draft), and in years we lost a pick I’ll discuss why and opine on those moves too (happened twice, in 2013 and 2015, and for now won’t happen again with new CBA rules).

Useful links for this read: Nats Draft Tracker (all our picks as a franchise with signing bonuses since 2005), and the Baseball-Reference.com Draft Database link right to Nats 1st rounders.

• 2025: Eli Willits, Prep SS from Oklahoma HS. 1st overall, bonus tbd. My instant reaction from earlier this week: I think its safe to say I would have preferred Kade Anderson as a closer-to-the-majors player, as opposed to a 17yr old we won’t see for years.

• 2024: Seaver King, SS, Wake Forest. 10th overall, $5.1M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction July 2024. My instant reaction at the time summarized: this was a surprise, under-slot pick, thought they should have taken someone else, and felt this was a reach (most shops had him ranked in the 17-19 range). I wanted them to take Branden Montgomery (who went 2 picks later) … who of course is slashing .345/.433/.582 in his pro debut in Kannapolis (perhaps to be expected since its Low-A). King has not started his pro career well, thought he is in a hitter’s death valley in Wilmington.

Interesting quote from the post: “Seaver King did not appear in a SINGLE MOCK draft in the top 10 that I can recall, nor was he ever associated with a Nats pick at #10. This is coming out of LF for sure.“

• 2023: Dylan Crews, OF, LSU. 2nd overall, $9M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction July 2023. My instant reaction at the time summarized: happy to get Crews, who was the 1-1 projection for most of the draft season and the Golden Spikes winner. Thought I did say by the time the draft rolled around that I would have preferred we get Skenes Of course, as it has turned out Skenes has been a generational 1-1 player… but he was off the board for us. Crews is in the majors now, which is a big step for prospect development, but has not hit nearly as well in his debut as we would have liked. See the below quote:

Interesting quote from the post: “I think I would have preferred Skenes if we had the choice, given our lack of pitching prospect depth and our abundance of OF prospects, but that can all work itself out later.“

• 2022: Elijah Green, OF, IMG Academy (FL). 5th overall, $6.5M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction July 2022. My instant reaction at the time summarized: I didn’t really commit to an opinion one way or the other, interestingly. I threw up some scouting report text instead of providing strong opinion one way or the other. I do seem to defend the pick slightly, as per the below quote. Right now, this pick is looking terrible, with Green back in the FCL trying to fix his contact issues.

Interesting quote from the post: “I understand there’s people who hate this pick. It is an upside pick, clearly. This pick is about ceiling, not floor. This is about picking someone who might be the next Ken Griffey; a guy who’s already 6’3″ with 70 power who also has 70 speed.“

• 2021: Brady House, 3B, Winder Barrow HS (GA). 11th overall, $5M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction July 2021. My instant reaction at the time summarized: I was ecstatic that House fell to us at #11. Plain and simple. I loved this pick. Right now it’s aging decently, with House in the majors and getting his sea legs.

Interesting quote from the post: “Suffice it to say; I like this pick. Yes he’s a prep kid, meaning he’s of no real immediate help, but based on our 2021 team and the turnover we likely face this coming off-season, we may be entering a rebuilding phase anyway, and House could be part of a crew that helps kick-start the franchise in a few years.“

• 2020: Cade Cavalli, RHP, Oklahoma. 22nd overall, $3.027M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction June 2020. My instant reaction at the time summarized: I found that he hit all the markers for a solid RHP starter, but was concerned about his lack of pitching track record in college. I don’t think I knew his name before he got picked. This pick is not aging well frankly: two lost seasons to injury, and his AAA performance in 2025 leaves much to be desired. Is he a washout? No, not yet, but he’s nearly 27 now and needs to be in the majors contributing.

Interesting quote from the post: “Cavalli is a speculative, scouting-first pick; he has little track record to go on, and this is the kind of pick that you can regret later on if he doesn’t work out.“

• 2019: Jackson Rutledge, RHP, San Jacinto College North (TX). 17th overall, $3.45M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction June 2019. My instant reaction at the time summarized: I was happy with the pick, and they seemed to get a bit of a steal on a player ranked higher than they got him. This take, and the pick, have not aged well; while he’s made the majors he has a 6 ERA there.

Interesting quote from the post: “He throws over the top, is up to 98-99 on the fastball with a mid 80s cutter, a wipe out slider, a 12-6 curve and some deception due to what’s described as “unusual short arm” mechanics.  I’m hoping we’re getting something closer to Randy Johnson and not a rehashing of Jake Johansen.“

• 2018: Mason Denaburg, RHP, Merritt Island HS (FL). 27th overall, $3M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction June 2018. My instant reaction at the time summarized: I liked the pick, getting a player projected to go mid-1st but who fell because of a minor injury (an omen perhaps). This take didn’t age well, and Denaburg never got out of a-ball.

Interesting quote from the post: “This pick is consistent with the behavior we saw when the team selected Lucas Giolito; high-value guy getting picked about 15 spots lower than he should have.“

• 2017: Seth Romero, LHP, Houston. 25th overall, $2.8M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction June 2017. My instant reaction at the time summarized: Hated it. Well, at least I got this one right at the time. See the below quote:

Interesting quote from the post: “Well, the worrisome situation came to pass; the Nats couldn’t help themselves and drafted perhaps the draft’s biggest knucklehead.  His list of transgressions at Houston were large and dumb; fights with teammates, weight/conditioning issues, drug issues.”

• 2016: Carter Kieboom, SS, Walton HS (GA). 28th overall, $2M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction June 2016. My instant reaction at the time summarized: I was surprised they went with a prep kid, but the scouting report called him one of the best hitters in the class.

Interesting quote from the post: “Described consistently as a great hitter, one of the best prep hitters in the class, he currently plays SS but is projected to move to 3B.“

• 2015: No 1st round pick; lost for Max Scherzer signing. Can’t complain about that. Again, like in 2012, thanks to our league best record in 2014, it would have been the 31st overall pick, hence feeding into the thought process that it wasn’t nearly as valuable as if it were in the teens.

• 2014: Erick Fedde, RHP, UNLV. 18th overall, $2.5M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction June 2014. My instant reaction at the time summarized: I didn’t like the pick, calling it an overdraft of a guy with a blown out elbow before even starting his pro career.

Interesting quote from the post: “He’s a Scott Boras client, he was a HS teammate of Bryce Harper, and he’s rehabbing a torn UCL, so he fits in nicely with the Nats on several levels.  It was easy to see why the mock drafts were all over the Nats taking Fedde.“

• 2013: No 1st round pick; lost for Rafael Soriano signing, which I was lukewarm about at the time and grew to really hate as we learned how much of a knee-jerk reaction it was to Storen’s 2012 NLDS meltdown and of Lerner’s influence on player acquisition at the time. It would have been #33 overall, since we were the best team in 2012, so it’s not like we lost a super high pick. That was the argument the team made to forgo the pick with a Class-A FA signing.

• 2012: Lucas Giolito, RHP, Harvard-Westlake HS (CA). 16th overall, $2.9M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction June 2012. My instant reaction at the time summarized: I was really worried about the amount of trust the Nats were putting into surgeons with our draft class.

Interesting quote from the post: “Giolito, if healthy, was in the mix for 1-1.  As was Purke.  As was Rendon.  All three fell because of injury concerns.  So clearly these are top-end talents, each individually worth the risk.  But all three within two draft classes?“

• 2011: Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice. 6th overall, $6M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction June 2011. My instant reaction at the time summarized: Absolutely ecstatic that we got Rendon. In fact, I distinctly remember being on a live-chat text chain with friends that night and my jaw dropping in amazement as Rendon was skipped over pick after pick. Remember; this guy was the Golden Spikes winner as a SOPHOMORE in college.

Interesting quote from the post: “I still can’t quite believe that Rendon fell to us.  I thought for sure he was going #2 or #3 overall.“

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I started the blog in mid June 2010, so I missed opining on our 1st overall pick Bryce Harper that year. I’m sure I liked it 🙂

So, how did my opinions age? Mostly decent.

I seemed to like:

• Rendon, Denaburg, Rutledge, House, Crews

I was lukewarm on:

• Kieboom, Giolito, Cavalli, Green, King, Willits

And I disliked:

• Fedde, Romero

So, not the best track record of Hot Takes. We’ll see how 2025 ages.

With the draft now compressed to just two days, we’ve had to punch out a ton of content real quickly. Here was our quick reaction to the 1-1 pick Eli Willits, then we did a post on the first 10 rounds of picks, which seemed to include one top pick with a big haircut, one near-slot slugger, three prep kids who need over-slot deals, then five senior signs.

Here’s the rest of our draft, which comprises guys we’ve never heard of but will nonetheless lookup their stats where available and pass some judgement.

Here’s the two main draft tracker resources you need and that I’m updating this week once the draft is complete.

• Nationals Draft Tracker: this is the long-running Google XLS with all our picks dating to 2005. There’s two tabs here: the main page with every pick, then a deeper-dive 2025 Draft pick with slot bonus breakdowns and other information on each pick.
• MLB’s Draft Tracker, the best of various options of Draft Trackers out there.

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Here’s links to major Prospect Rankings shops that I’ll reference below when assessing the “value” of the pick. I’m not expecting a ton of the 11-20th rounds to have any top-XXX rankings honestly.

• Baseball America top 500 (paywall)
• The Athletic/Keith Law top 100 Draft board, (paywall)
• MLBpipeline expanded top 250 Draft Board
• Fangraphs FV-based Draft Board
• ESPN Top 250 Draft Prospects for 2025
• Prospects1500 Top 250 Draft board released 7/7/25
• Baseball Prospectus MLB Draft Big Board for 2025 posted 7/3/25 (paywall)
• ProspectsLive Final Top 400 Draft board released 7/12/25 (paywall past top 10)

Other useful tools while evaluating these guys:

• MLB 2025 Combine Attendees:
• D1baseball Transfer Portal at d1baseball.com, also same at Baseball America, both paywall

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• 11th Round, #321 Overall: Jack Moroknek, Coll Jr. OF from Butler

Ranks by major shops: BA=398

Morokneck is listed as a “Coll Sr” on MLB’s draft tracker, but he is finishing up his third year of college. He came into school old, so he’s already turned 22. I’m calling him a Coll Jr. irrespective of what MLBpipeline says. He was Butler’s leading hitter this year, slashing .372/.443/.702 with power. He’s a 6’3″ classical big guy corner OF (he played a lot of RF for Butler) and the BA scouting profile shows promise. In a repeating trend, his scouting report talks about his elite Exit Velocity (EV), putting him at 90% percentile for D1. This is not the first time we’ve seen EV listed prominently for a player the team has drafted, and I have to believe this is a specific marker our new-fangled scouting department is focusing on.

11th rounders are always an interesting set of players, often with the talent level to have been more like a 5th/6th rounder and often commanding a premium over the $150k figure, so Morokneck will be one to keep an eye on. We’ve mostly tried out College Arms who slipped out of the top 10 with our 11th rounders as of late, often throwing an extra $100k at them, and have had varying success.

• 12th Round: #351 overall: Ben Moore, Coll JR LHP from Old Dominion

Ranks by major shops: MLB=237, BA=243

A local kid! He’s from ODU in Norfolk by way of Linganore HS in Frederick, MD. Ben Moore began the 2025 season as the #64 ranked prospect by BA … but by season’s end he had fallen out of the top 10 rounds. He went from the bullpen for ODU his first two years into the rotation this year and struggled: 6.64 ERA, 1.68 whip. He was just generally wild: 32 walks and 12 HBPs in 63 innings, and despite having a fastball up to 97 he averaged less than a K/inning. So, that’s not a great 2025, but clearly he had some near 2nd round potential before the season. The team has to be betting on this prior reputation, similarly to the way the Angels were betting on Tyler Bremner’s pre-2025 season promise by picking him 2nd overall. Is he signable? Absolutely; he went to the MLB combine, and you don’t go to the combine if you’re not looking to get drafted and start playing pro. I can’t see any reason he wouldn’t go for the $150k slot.

• 13th round: #381 overall: Tucker Biven, Coll Jr. RHP from Louisville

Ranks: BA=347

Biven served as a swing-man for top-10 ranked Louisville team this year, getting both starts and saves throughout the year. He didn’t have the greatest stats this year and certainly took a step back from his 2024 season, where he had better numbers. 2025 stats; 23 appearances, 5 starts, 43ip, 3.71 ERA, 1.58 whip. Is he signable? He still has eligibility and did not attend the combine. But, if he’s projecting to the Louisville bullpen again in 2026, what does he have left to prove? He could end up in a senior sign 7th round situation offered $10k, versus gambling on a guaranteed $150k payday today. I think he signs.

• 14th round: #411 overall: Nick Hollifield, Coll Jr. C from UAB

Seems like a middle of the road college catcher; not great hitting stats, got a nod for a mid-season Buster Posey nomination award (goes to the best college catcher). Slashed .266/.376/.415 this year. Was a rock behind the plate for UAB, making 50+ starts this year. Will he sign? This season was his best offensively, so if he wants to play professionally now’s the time. I think he signs.

• 15th round: #441 overall: Jacob Walsh, Coll Sr 1B from Oregon

Senior 1B, decent stats this year, 1,000 OPS with 19 homers and some SB. Attended the MLB combine, which clearly did him some favors as we pick him up. Was the Oregon career HR record holder after his JUNIOR year, only extended it in his Sr. season. Lefty, big guy, but also was named to some all-conference Defensive teams. Seems like a decent prospect.

• 16th Round: #471 overall: Levi Huesman, Coll Jr LHP from Vanderbilt

Huseman is at Vanderbilt by way of Richmond baseball powerhouse Hanover HS. He was initially at Coastal Carolina but xferred in for his sophomore season. This year, he threw just 16 innings this year: 20/4 K/BB in those ip with solid 2.81 ERA. He was a 17th rounder out of HS but went to college, now he’s a 16th rounder after his Junior year. He did not go to the MLB combine. He’s been barely used out of Vandy’s pen for two years now, and I wonder if he wants to stick around for another year of pitching an inning a week. Seems like he’d be signable.

• 17th round: #501 overall: Bryce Molinaro, Coll Jr 3B from Penn State

Penn State is not exactly a baseball powerhouse. And Molinaro wasn’t exactly an offensive superstar there this year, slashing .267/.373/.502 for the season. He’s a PA kid who initially went to St. Johns and who then redshirted and transferred, so technically he’s a RS Sophomore. He was a lot better last year, slashing .329/.409/.560 as a RS freshman. If he signed, he’d be signing low honestly. He did not attend the MLB combine. I think the combination of his downturn in performance, his now attending Penn State as a PA resident (PA guys are completely enamored of Penn State), and the fact that he still has two years of eligibility means he’s going to stay in school and won’t sign.

• 18th round: #531 overall: Owen Puk, Coll Sr RHP from Florida International

Puk posted a 4.91 ERA/1.39 whip with decent K/9 but some control issues (23 walks in 40 ip plus 11 WPs) as a sat/sun “starter” for FIU this year. I put “starter” in quotes because he usually only went 3-4 innings, often less, resulting in just 40IP cross 15 appearances. He’s technically a RS junior, having missed all of 2023 getting Tommy John. If you recognize the unique last name you should: he’s the brother of AJ Puk, who was a 6th overall pick a decade ago by Oakland and who is in the majors now. So, Owen isn’t nearly the prospect AJ was, but isn’t a bad bet based on pedigree for an 18th rounder. He’s done four years in school and should sign.

• 19th Round: #561: Mason Pike Prep HS RHP/SS from Puyallup HS (WA)

Ranks: MLB=135, BA=68.

So, we get our one prep backup plan pick here in the 19th round. The Nats have generally used their 19th or 20th picks to grab a big-name prep kid who’s slipped out of signing range as insurance in case one of their negotiations goes south with the kids they grabbed in the 1st-5th rounds. I guarantee you Pike would sign for the overage we’d planned on spending there. He’s a 2-way Oregon State commit who BA had ranked #31 at season’s beginning, so we’re talking a 1st-2nd round talent. He’s a switch hitter with a bunch of 60 tool grades, can hit 97 on the mound but otherwise is mostly being evaluated as a SS. He’ll play both ways if/when he gets to college.

• 20th round: #591 overall: Juan Cruz, 1B Coll Jr from Alabama State University

BA ranked 474

Our 20th rounder is intriguing: Juan Cruz, huge 1B from Alabama State (6’5″ 240) who attended the MLB combine as a junior. His numbers this year are impressive: .420/.481/.690 for a gaudy 1.171 OPS figure. He’s technically a Redshirt sophomore, but he went to the MLB combine this year, which I’m reading like others as his intent to get drafted and sign. He crushed the ball last year to earn all-conference Freshman of the year, and was SWAC player of the year in 2025. I see one caveat here: he’s in the transfer portal and has committed to move to Georgia. Does he want to roll the dice with a season in the SEC, or to turn pro having dominated his league? We’ll see.

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So, a decent balance of arms and position players from 11-20, a couple of guys with solid college stats that might turn out solid. 9 of the 10 picks here were college guys with the one insurance prep kid as an exception.

I’ve updated the Draft Tracker’s 2025 draft with this data, and will start to be on the lookout for signings and NDFAs. I’ll also populate the social media links of these players, since that’s where they often tip their hat to signings or inclinations of returning to school.

We just posted a quick reaction to the 1-1 pick Eli Willits. Here’s a run through the first 10 picks, for all of Day 1 and Day 2 of the draft, showing where the various prospect ranking shops ranked our picks, with some thoughts and bonus projections.

Here’s the two main draft tracker resources you need and that I’m updating this week in as close to real-time as I can given my current employment status :-):

• Nationals Draft Tracker: this is the long-running Google XLS with all our picks dating to 2005. There’s two tabs here: the main page with every pick, then a deeper-dive 2025 Draft pick with slot bonus breakdowns and other information on each pick.
• MLB’s Draft Tracker, the best of various options of Draft Trackers out there.

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Here’s links to major Prospect Rankings shops that I’ll reference below when assessing the “value” of the pick.

• Baseball America top 500 (paywall)
• The Athletic/Keith Law top 100 Draft board, (paywall)
• MLBpipeline expanded top 250 Draft Board
• Fangraphs FV-based Draft Board
• ESPN Top 250 Draft Prospects for 2025
• Prospects1500 Top 250 Draft board released 7/7/25
• Baseball Prospectus MLB Draft Big Board for 2025 posted 7/3/25 (paywall)
• ProspectsLive Final Top 400 Draft board released 7/12/25 (paywall past top 10)

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• 1st Round, 1st Overall: Eli Willits, Prep SS from Fort Cobb-Broxton HS in Oklahoma.

Ranks by major shops: BA=3, Law=8, MLB=5, Fangraphs=5, Prospects1500=6, ESPN=3

As already discussed, this was a shock pick to most pundits and the industry, who had the Nats taking either Anderson or Holliday for the most part. Willits is still a top 5 player on nearly every draft board (Keith Law being the low-man on him, citing lack of power). A lot of the shops talk about his floor being easy to attain, so there’s that. For me, I think he’s a #5 overall pick projection who made it to 1-1 probably by cutting a deal, so we’ll see how much savings the team got (probably in the $3M range) and how they can spread it out amongst the rest of the draft. Committed to Oklahoma, where his dad is on staff, but he’ll never get there.

• 2nd round #49 overall: Ethan Petry, a 4th year College Jr 1B/OF from U of South Carolina

Ranks by major shops: BA=36, Law=68, MLB=59, Fangraphs=104, Prospects1500=44, ESPN=75

Petry pretty clearly is a slugger. He’s got 60s and 65s for his power grade amongst the various shops, and is probably a LF/1B/DH type in pro ball. He has posted solid power numbers throughout his career, with pretty impressive 110mph+ EVs. One scouting report even said he could have been in the mix for 1-1 if he was better defensively (which seems like a stretch) An interesting pick here, and one that (like the Willits pick) seems to be more analytics driven (his eye popping EV). Is this an over- or under-slot pick? Is he getting $1.98m here? I’ll bet he signs for a bit under-slot.

• 3rd round #80 overall: Landon Harmon, RHP prep from East Union Attendance Center HS (MS)

Ranks by major shops: BA=65, Law=95, MLB=48, Fangraphs=31, Prospects1500=65, ESPN=76

Mississippi State commit who is tall (6-5) with a huge fastball (has hit 100) but mechanical concerns (well at least if you believe Keith Law, who thinks everyone has mechanical issues). Yes, he’s a prep right hander in an organization that hasn’t done a great job producing them over the last decade, but has been a bit better as of late with Sykora and Clemmey and even Cuevas, who was a prep 21st rounder and who still is active). We’ll see. this seems like a slightly over-slot deal here, and if you pay him like an early 2nd rounder (i.e. throw in another $1M on top of his slot $1m) he could sign. Should be interesting to see what he signs for. Committed to Mississippi State.

• 4th round #111 overall: Miguel Sime Jr, RHP prep from Poly Prep Country Day School (NY)

Ranks by major shops: BA=88, Law=nr, MLB=86, Fangraphs=120/HM, Prospects1500=nr, ESPN=nr

Four picks into the new regime and we already have more prep kids drafted than the last 5 drafts combined. Ok, no that’s not quite true… but its close. Sime is from a northern school but has apparently been at every showcase held for the last two years. MLB gives him a 70 grade on his fastball, no small feat. He was at the NHSI that I covered earlier this year, and per BA’s scouting report “held upper-90s velocity for more than 100 pitches” against the Corona HS team that had both Carlson and Hernandez. Wow. This is a big guy: 6’3″ 235 already, that’s like linebacker sized. Hitting 99, sitting 95-96. I’m guessing it takes another extra $750 to get him to sign. Committed to LSU, not that that matters anymore. I like him on paper for sure.

• 5th Round #142 overall Coy James, a prep SS from Davie HS (NC)

Ranks by major shops: BA=49, Law=nr, MLB=94, Fangraphs=66, Prospects1500=59, ESPN=69

He’s a 6’0″ shortstop who most of the scouts list as one of the best pure hitters in the class. he was an U18 starter as an underclassman, and per reports has “explosive power” despite being a SS. James went into the 2025 prospect season as a slam dunk top 10 pick, projected as high as #10 by BA’s ranks at the time. So what happened? Scouting reports say he gained weight, which added power but caused him to lose athleticism. It sounds to me like someone in the Nats org fell in love with him at a combine somewhere and figures they can get him in shape. He projects like a 20-homer slugging 2B in the pros, and apparently has a “strong commitment” to ole Miss. I’ll bet he nabs near 1st round money ($2.5M or more) and this could be where a lot of our savings goes.

• 6th round: #171 overall: Boston Smith, Col Sr. C/OF from Wright State
• 7th round: #201 overall: Julian Tonghini, Col Sr RHP from Arizona
• 8th round: #231 overall: Riley Maddox, Col Sr RHP from Ole Miss
• 9th round: #261 overall: Wyatt Henseler, Col Sr 2B/3B from Texas A&M
• 10th round: #291 overall: Hunter Hines, Col Sr 1B from Mississippi State.

Ranks by major shops: none

So, it’s now pretty clear that this is going to be a 5-man draft. With all due respect to these guys, they are drafted in these spots for one reason: Bonus $$ savings. Every one of these guys is a 4th or 5th year senior with no leverage, and they all probably agreed to sign for $10k (or less), which nets a collective $1.3m or so for the team to throw at other players. There’s no real scouting reports available on any of them.

Of course, this team has had some decent results out of these senior sign/throw away picks lately. Jackson Ross signed for just $2k last year and has already earned a promotion to High-A. Glasser is in AA now as a $10k signing in 2023. Murphy Sthehy the same; in AA as a $10k signing in 2022. Our backup catcher in AAA is Brad Lindsly; he signed for just $20k in the Covid year and is still going. So, these players do matter and can have an impact.

That being said, here’s a quick look at each of them, primarily looking at stats from their colleges and bio:

• Boston Smith at Wright State was a monster at the plate this year, with a 1.274 OPS slashing .332/.500/.774 with 26 homers. He hit three homers in his first three games at the CWS Vanderbilt regional, helping Wright State to eliminate the #1 seed and certainly making an impression.
• Julian Tonghini at Arizona was a back of the bullpen type; 22 games, 25 IP. Not great numbers from an ERA or WHIP perspective but struck out 44 guys in 25IP. I’m sure that’s what the team is looking at; decent value reliever who is old enough to get through the lower minors fast and see if he’s got what it takes to stick.
• Riley Maddox was in Ole Miss’ rotation all year and struggled, 5.56 ERA, 1.45 whip. 69/30 K/BB in 69 IP. He regressed a bit from his Jr. season, where he also made every start.
• Wyatt Henseler at Texas A&M: .319/.423/.562 for the season. He was a grad student at TAMU, having done four years at UPenn. He was a 2nd team pre-season All American at D1baseball.com, and certainly hit like it. If he put these numbers up as a Coll Jr he’d be a 4th or 5th rounder; instead he’s a no-leverage 9th rounder for us. He played both 2B and 3B in college and probably can do the same in for us. I’ll bet he can hit in pro ball and I like this pick.
• Hunter Hines from Mississippi State slashed .280/.380/.578 as their primary 1B all year. Big guy, 6’3″ 210, lefty swinger. He was first team all-SEC as a sophomore, starting to get some traction, but lost some of that traction in the last two years. Still, he took over the all-time lead in homers late in the 2025 season at the program, besting the record formerly held by Rafael Palmeiro. He seems like a pure masher who is destined for 1B/DH levels, but that’s worth a gamble for sure.

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So, that being said, Here’s what I think the team does with its bonus dollars.

• Willits: slot $11M. I bet he signs for a bit more than the $8.1M that the 5th overall slot was guaranteed for (his projection in most mocks): call it $8.5M, so $2.5M savings.
• Picks 6-10: total bonus pool: $1.33M, $10k each so $50k less, plus the 5% cushion leads to $1.3M in savings.
• Petry: slot $1.98M, I’ll bet he signs for a bit less: call it $1.75M for $250k of savings.

So that would give the team right around $4M to work with before the 5% cushion.

• Harmon: slot of $1M, add another $1.5M = $2.5M bonus, or around the end of the 1st comp round.
• Sime: slot of $687k, add another $1M = $1.6M bonus, or around mid 2nd round
• James: slot of $508k, add $1.5M = $2M bonus, or around the beginning of 2nd round.

Something like this.

I’ll post the 11th->20th round picks in another post.

Though I was traveling all weekend (bad timing to try to cover a Sunday evening event properly), I was able to tape and quickly watch the first 15 minutes or so of the 2025 draft to catch the top picks.

To say that the mock drafters were wrong all spring would be a huge understatement, starting at the top.

The Nats come out of nowhere to pick Eli Willits out of an Oklahoma HS at 1-1. Nobody all spring had Willits on the Nats’ radar, and I (and the MLB TV pundits) were in shock.

My quick thoughts: this really sends a weird message from the team. They just fired their long-standing GM presumably because they were disappointed in the direction of the team … then instead of drafting a polished college guy who might be able to contribute with the current set of stars we have, we draft the youngest ever player to go 1-1 in Willits, who reclassified from the 2026 class and who likely does appear in the majors for half a decade. Willits certainly was a highly ranked player, and ranked a lot higher on some teams’ draft boards simply because of his age. He’s 6′ 1″ 180 pure SS switch hitter whose father was a dirt-balling utility guy in the majors for a few years and who looked like a cut-rate Pete Rose at the plate.

Can’t say I like this pick, at all. I think Anderson is closer to a MLB rotation, I think Doyle could be in a bullpen role in the majors right now, and I think Holliday projects to be a far better player. I can only assume that they got a massive deal on the bonus, which will allow them to “stock up” on more prep kids in the next two days.

Does this pick (and its cascading effects on the rest of the draft) represent a monumental shift in the front office’s thinking now that Rizzo is gone? Maybe. But it certainly doesn’t portend well to the fanbase who have seen 5 straight losing seasons to pick a 17 yr old. Yes, I get it, you don’t draft for “need.” But you also don’t ignore context of where you are as a franchise and where you’re going. To me, this pick sends the following message: “We don’t think we’ve got it, even with Gore and Wood and Abrams and Crews and House, so we’re getting set for the future.” Especially if the pick was made to save dollars for more prep kids today and tomorrow.

We seem to have saved the weirdest list for last. While all other pundits release their “pre-season” prospect lists before the actual season starts, Fangraphs and Eric Longenhagen waited until nearly the All Star break to release their list, the 29th of the 30 lists to get published (only Houston remains).

So, what does this list represent? Does it represent the state of our prospects before the season started and before we saw leaps forward from the likes of Lord, or Henry, or Sykora? Or, does it represent where these players sat in terms of reputation before a pitch was thrown? Honestly, its hard to gauge, based on this list, since on the one hand it still has Crews at #1, but on the other it clearly takes into account 2025 performance in some cases already (for example, having Dickerson at #6 when he ranked him #27 at the same time last year or ranking Henry in the top 10).

So, I’m not sure how to critique this list honestly.

Here’s the top 39:

Rank	Last Name	First Name	Position
1	Dylan	Crews	OF (CF)
2	Travis	Sykora	RHP (Starter)
3	Jarlin	Susana	RHP (Starter)
4	Brady	House	SS/3B
5	Daylen	Lile	OF (CF)
6	Luke	Dickerson	SS/CF
7	Seaver	King	SS
8	Cade	Cavalli	RHP (Starter)
9	Jake	Bennett	LHP (Starter)
10	Cole	Henry	RHP (Starter)
11	Caleb	Lomavita	C
12	Alex	Clemmey	LHP (Starter)
13	Daniel	Hernandez	C
14	Yoel	Tejada Jr.	RHP (Starter)
15	Victor	Hurtado	OF
16	Cristian	Vaquero	OF (CF)
17	Robert	Hassell III	OF (CF)
18	Kevin	Bazzell	C/3B
19	Andry	Lara	RHP (Starter)
20	Tyler	Stuart	RHP (Starter)
21	Jackson	Kent	LHP (Starter)
22	Dashyll	Tejeda	OF (CF)
23	Marconi	German	SS
24	Zach	Brzykcy	RHP (Reliever)
25	Orlando	Ribalta	RHP (reliever)
26	Jackson	Rutledge	RHP (Starter)
27	Kevin	Made	SS
28	Sir Jamison	Jones	CA
29	Angel	Feliz	3B/SS
30	Brayan	Cortesia	SS
31	Brad	Lord	RHP (Starter)
32	Darren	Baker	2B
33	Marquis	Grissom	RHP (Reliever)
34	Yohandy	Morales	3B
35	Jorgelys	Mota	SS
36	Cornelio	Riley	RHP (Starter)
37	Erick	Mejia	RHP
38	Jose	Feliz	RHP (Starter)
39	Carlos	Tavares	OF

Here’s some thoughts.

• Crews still at 1-1, despite exhausting any semblance of rookie eligibility about a week into the 2025 season.
• 2-3-4 as expected. Susana not dinged for the “TJ-sounding” injury he seems to have, which would probably impact his lofty ranking otherwise and, based on the wholesale dumping of other prospects who got hurt, doesn’t seem to make any sense.
• Dickerson at #6, as he should now and going forward. Which .. ok did they take into account his hot start or was this pre-season ranking? Last year, Dickerson was #27 on this list. So there’s your answer.
• Cole Henry all the way up to #10. Clearly this takes into account his sudden ability to get MLB batters out in the bullpen. Last year: not ranked, meaning he was in the upper 30s at best.
• Clemmey is “only” at #12, which I find kind of ridiculous. I mean, what more do you want the kid to do? He literally just turned 20, has put up two straight months of sub 2.00 ERA, and seems likely to get promoted to AA before the season is out. And he’s behind a pitcher in Bennett who’s four years older and who can’t seem to throw more than 3 innings at a time right now?
• Daniel Hernandez at #13 is super bullish. And now is as good of a time as any to point out the “flaws” in the Fangraphs FV system and how it ranks prospects. Longenhagen’s system basically values ceiling with a significant downgrading of the floor. So, you see a guy like Hernandez, who just turned 17 and who is currently slashing .208/.269/.264 as a catcher in the DSL (he’s caught about half the games, DH’d the other half) ranked nearly in the top 10 but players like Andrew Alvarez and Andrew Pinckney, who are in AAA right now producing, are not even in his top 39. Hernandez at #13 is asinine. Putting him inside the top 20 is nearly as dumb. I had him #37 before the season started, and he’s likely falling 20-30 spots the next time I do the ranks.
• Vaquero at #16. What exactly has this guy done to have him ranked that high at this point in his career, besides get a $4.9M bonus?
• Hassell dumped down to #17 in a season where he forced a promotion to the majors and where he’s got a 1.000 OPS in AAA … one spot ahead of Bazzell at #18, who’s hitting like .150 in A-ball. Make it make sense.
• A first time mention for one German Marconi. A 2025 IFA signing for a reasonable $400k in January, he’s got a pretty impressive slash line right now in DSL: .269/.491/.513 for an OPS north of 1.000. He’s got 24 walks and 17 strikeouts; that’s unheard of. This is the first time I’ve seen him on any prospect lists, and clearly he’s one to watch.
• Longenhagen’s system also overrates relievers. Except … when it doesn’t. Ok quick quiz: which reliever who’s made it to the major leagues this year do you think is higher rated? Ribalta, Brzycky, Rutledge, or Lord? If you guessed Lord, who has a 111 ERA+ in 33 appearances … you’d be wrong! Lord is ranked 4th out of these four. I guess in his system actual performance on the field doesn’t actually count.
• Made comes in at #27, which was about right for pre-season, but which may be low now given his offensive explosion so far this year.
• Ok, so Hernandez is ranked #13 right? And he’s hitting at the Mendoza line. Meanwhile, Brayan Cortesia, who got 5x the bonus dollars in January at $1.9M … is currently slashing .477/.558/.523 in the DSL … and he’s ranked 30th while Hernandez is 13th?? Really?
• Morales at #34. Wow. I mean, just wow. Of course, Fangraphs doesn’t rate Morales at all; last year they had him at #19. I mean, what’s the guy gotta do? Get to AAA at age 23 despite injuries and then hold your own there? That’s gotta be worth something right?
• Erick Frigging Mejia at #37. OK this is just trolling us right?

OK, so there’s a lot of problems in this list. But here’s some of the names not even in the top 40:

• Cayden Wallace, mostly a top 10 player on other lists; outside the top 40? Only if you think this season has completely erased all his past seasons and scouting reports.
• Andrew Pinckney, as noted; nowhere to be seen despite being in AAA
• Andrew Alvarez, because being a serviceable AAA starter is meaningless.
• Elijah Green; ok well I can understand this based on his performance … but he’s still all tooled up right?
• No Armando Cruz? Lots of love for big bonus low-performers like Hurtado and Vaquero but not Cruz? Makes no sense.

Phew. It took them until July to release this list. Maybe they should just go with what they had in March; couldn’t be much worse.

Here’s the three month check-in with all our top 20 (and some) prospects. All seasonal stats as of 7/1/25, though the whole point of this article is to see how these players are doing in the last month. I’m a little late posting this … since we’ve had a ton of “news” happen, so I havn’t updated this post for anything that’s happened in the last nine days (like, for example, Cavalli getting shelled last night).

#1. Dylan Crews OF (CF): Missed all of May with oblique issue. Was not hitting well before hand. Temperature: on ice.

#2 Travis Sykora RHP (Starter): Just promoted to AA, his 2nd promotion in as many months. He’s our #1 prospect on all lists right now and it will be super interesting to see how he fares in AA. Temperature: red hot.

#3 Brady House SS/3B: Promoted to MLB, has basically been the starter at 3B. Slashed just .231/.268/.288 for the month of June. Not great. Not much power shown so far. Paul deJong just came off the DL (though his slash line is even worse) so I wonder what the team will do here. Temperature: Hot for making majors, not hot for his MLB performance so far.

#4 Jarlin Susana RHP (Starter). Zero news on his grade 1 UCL sprain; zero June activity.. Temperature: on ice.

# 5 Seaver King SS. took a big step back in June: .218/.259/.307. Is it possible he’s just too high in his first pro season? Maybe they should have left him in Wilmington (even if its an awful hitter’s park). Temperature: getting colder.

# 6 Yohandy Morales 1B/3B: has not taken to AAA pitching so far, slashing just .207/.289.331 in Rochester so far. Temperature: Warm for getting to AA at age 23, code so far in the league.

#7 Cayden Wallace 2B/3B: was awful in June: .169/.218/.211 for the month. Weren’t there some who thought this was a better 3B prospect than House this past off-season? Phew. Temperature: ice cold.

# 8 Cade Cavalli RHP (Starter): Five starts in AAA after finally returning from nearly 2 years out for TJ, and he’s not really impressing. Interestingly though Fangraphs just did a piece on him. He talks a ton about changes he’s making to his approach, introduction of new pitches, working on a 2-seamer, mixing up speeds, etc. I think his up and down results in AAA so far can be explained a bit, and I’m a bit less worried than others. If you’re in the anti-Cavalli camp right now, give this article a read and see if it changes your mind. Temperature: Warming up.

#9 Alex Clemmey LHP (Starter): His June was just as good as his May; 1.45 ERA, .197 BAA against. He’s already due for another promotion, and I wonder if he’s starting to put his name into consideration for some top-100 lists as a 19yr old dominating in High-A. Temperature: getting hot.

# 10 Robert Hassell III OF (CF): Got 21 games in the Majors when we had some OF issues, but struggled (.218/.228/269) and is now back in AAA. He continues to be a healthy hitter in AAA (OPS north of 1.000 in June), and hopefully gets another shot at the Majors soon. Temperature: hot for getting there, cold in MLB.

#11 Caleb Lomavita C: Solid June: .295/.371/.346. Love the OBP, wish for more power. He’s only 5′ 10″ so maybe a gap contact hitter is his ceiling. Temperature: Staying Warm.

# 12 Luke Dickerson SS/CF: It was great to see Dickerson quickly hit his way out of the complex league, but his time in Low-A so far has been a struggle. He’s slashing just .223/.327/.338 so far in F’burg. So, pump the brakes a bit. Also, remember that if he were playing by the D1 rules, he’d be taking his freshman summer in some random wood-bat league near his home in Jersey. Temperature: luke warm.

# 13 Andry Lara RHP (Starter): did a bunch of rehab starts in A-ball, then was optioned to AA instead of AAA (odd for a 40-man roster who pretty much proved he had solved AA last year) and promptly got shelled in his first game back. He’s now got a 10 ERA in AAA this year and a 20 ERA in AA. Is he still hurt? Temperature: very cold.

#14 Tyler Stuart RHP (Starter): his first month back in AA post injury did not go well: 5 games, 6 ERA, and now he’s back on the DL as of this writing. Harrisburg now has nearly an entire rotation on its DL (Susana, Stuart, Knowles, Atencio). Temperature: chilly.

#15 Daylen Lile OF (CF): his slash line in the majors so far (.221/.274/.338) hasn’t been great, but he’s the one they’ve kept up for now instead of the likes of Hassell, Yepez, Chapparo, Tena, etc. He’s getting playing time too, often at the expense of Young or Call oddly. Temperature: hot for getting there, cool in MLB

#16 Kevin Bazzell C/3B: continues to disappoint. .213/.367/.234 in June. He’s got zero power and isn’t hitting well enough to maintain his spot. Temperature: ice cold.

#17 Jake Bennett LHP (Starter): Bennett continues to be brought back slowly, doing just 3IP in each of his starts. So far he’s been nearly unhittable and efficient in these starts. Hoping to see him stretch out and get to AA by year’s end. Temperature: getting warmer.

#18 Brad Lord RHP (Starter/Reliever): fun fact: as of this writing Lord is 4th on the damn team in bWAR for the season. 3.28 ERA in 30 appearances/57 IP as of this writing. 18th round draft pick. What a win for the player dev and for the draft team. Temperature: Red Hot all around.

#19 Angel Feliz 3B/SS: cooled from his hot start, hitting just .238 in May. Still a win for getting to FCL after just one year in DSL. Temperature: cooled off

#20 Andrew Pinckney OF (Corner): struggling in AAA: .203/.329/.344 for June. Still getting starts in AAA, which is something positive for the 24yr old, but not doing much with it so far. Temperature: cold

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Notables #20 and above by the Level they mostly played in in June 2025.

In MLB:

• #35 Jackson Rutledge gave up 10 runs in 10 June MLB innings; that’s not going to cut it.
• #36 Cole Henry continues to hold his own in the MLB pen; his FIP flatters his ERA but he’s got a positive bWAR and that’s awesome for someone I was afraid was going to be out of baseball.

in AAA:

• #32 Darren Baker had a solid June in AAA: .317/.427/.400. If we manage to flip any of our MLB utility infielders Baker should get another shot.
• #38 Drew Millas hit well in AAA in June .286/.357/.469, which helped him get the call-up to the majors. This positive mention of Millas won’t
• Both our 1B/DH “prospects” Yepez and Chapparo are now back in AAA; #31 Chapparo probably losing out in a numbers game for now, but Yepez was DFA’d and outrighted in what probably is a dagger for his time with Washington.
• #41 Marquis Grissom Jr bounced back after a tough month after getting promoted; he’s in the Futures Game but probably not on merit.

In AA:

• #47 Phillip Glasser SS bounced back after a great April and an awful May with this June slash line: .329/.426/.482. Why hasn’t he moved up? Nowhere to play him: he’s played basically 2B and LF this year: AAA has too many 2B already (Baker, Lipscomb, Arruda) and too many guys who are limited to a corner OF/DH spot (Baker, Schnell, Yepez/Chapparo).
• #25 Kevin Made: wow; he’s alive. And crushing AA pitching: .352/.410/.444 in June. Phew. Not bad for a glove-first prospect. Why not move him up? Because Nasim Nunez is clogging the AAA SS position with his Mendoza line batting average. I dunno; maybe its time to cut bait here.

In High-A:

• #39 Sam Peterson got promoted and was basically High-A’s best hitter in June: .286/.370/.400.
• #88 Miguel Gomez cruised for the month in the closer role with a sub 1.00 ERA.

In Low-A:

• #90 Yoander Rivero was the teams’ best hitter in June … and just hit the DL.
• #96 Pablo Aldonis is making a name for himself in the bullpen.
• #42 Robert Cranz dominated again in June and just earned a promotion.

In FCL:

• #23 Elijah Green officially was sent to the FCL, hopefully to re-work everything. So far? .229/.386/.286. 13/9 K/BB in 12 games. Ok, so that’s an improvement. Interesting that he’s taking so many walks all of a sudden; is that wild pitching or is that him showing plate discipline as part of his reworking? The team has so much invested in him, it’ll be interesting to see what they come up with.
• #44 Jose Feliz, continues to remain one of the best starters in FCL.
• #45 Dashyll Tejeda, remains hot: .315/.351/.407 in June after similar numbers in May. Great to see.
• #72 Sir Jamison Jones: improved greatly this month; .308/.440/.615. Wow. Love those numbers. Another month and he’s gonna have to move up just like Dickerson did.

In the DSL, here’s how the first month went for the six DSL guys i’ve got on my top 100 list. These are all position players, ironic in that the strength of our DSL team right now seems to be its rotation.

• #22 Victor Hurtado, our big-money 2024 guy, not impressing yet again in 2025. .259/.429/.296. He’s listed as a corner OF; need to see more power here.
• #29 Brayan Cortesia has wasted no time making his introduction post signing in January: June: .440/.481/.520. He’s 11 for 25 with some doubles, so SSS but a solid start.
• #37 Daniel Hernandez, who’s starting to get some prospect love in other shops, struggling to start hitting just .213 for the month. Listed as a C when signing but a DH so far for DSL.
• #66: Rony Bello: .801 OPS to start the season.
• #70 Hector Liriano: hitting .152 as a 1B? that’s not going to cut it.
• #103 Juan Obispo is hitting .313 in very limited action so far.