Nationals Arm Race

As was posted yesterday (early this morning?) by Luke over at NationalsProspects.com, BA released its list of known 2023 Minor League Free Agents by team this week. The Nats had no fewer than 30 (!) players listed on BA’s list, to go along with a couple of guys who elected FA a bit earlier this off season plus one guy in Sean Doolittle who was technically declared a MLFA but who announced his retirement in September.

Nats Big Board is now updated; go to the “2024 Releases” tab to see the 30-some odd names just declared FAs.

This massive number of names to me is indicative of one main fact w/r/t our player development lately: we have been signing an inordinate number of MLFAs to one year deals to cover the upper levels of the system. By my count, 19 of these names were signed as MLFAs ahead of the 2023 season. Some of them got MLB playing time as experienced vets (Derek Hill, Anthony Banda) and some of them are still on the 40-man (Meneses, Vargas, and Weems were all MLFAs). But we’ve depended on so many of these guys lately, especially to fill the AAA rosters.

Eight of these newly declared MLFAs were home-grown, which means they’ve been in our system for a long, long time. Many were once well-regarded prospects and we’ve discussed them in this space for years. For all these players, the Draft Tracker and IFA trackers are now updated to indicate their departure. These releases officially cut ties with most of the 2016 IFA class and 2017 Draft class.

• Jake Noll: 16D 7th rounder. Earned a 40-man spot, couldn’t hold on to it.
• Wilmer Perez: 16IFA Catcher who has bounced around levels for years as a backup catcher.
• Yasel Antuna: 16IFA with a massive bonus who never paid off and clogged our 40-man roster for years. A perfect example of teams ignoring simple Economic theory w/r/t Sunk Costs and continuing to treat signing bonuses as “investments” instead of the transactional cash payments they really are.
• Jose Sanchez: another 16IFA backup SS who filled in at High-A and AA this year.
• Alex Troop, 17D 9th rounder who became the classic lefty Long Reliever/Spot Starter rubber-armed guy who soaked up innings for both AAA and AA for this team for years. I could see him re-upping if given the opportunity; he ended up being in the AA rotation for a big chunk of 2023.
• Pedro Gonzalez, 17IFA middle RHP multi-inning reliever who just kind of soaked up innings for Low-A this year.
• Jackson Tetreault: 17D 7th rounder who always seemed to fly under the radar, but got a bunch of starts in AAA in 2022 and looked like he could be a find, getting promoted to the big club. But, he got hurt, missed most of 2023, and now he’s in career limbo. Like Troop, I wonder if he’ll re-up with the team.
• Malvin Pena, a 14IFA (wow) who’s been pitching in this organization for nearly a decade. Had decent numbers as a AA middle reliever.

Other notable names declared MLFAs:

• Gerardo Carillo: the 3rd guy out of 4 prospects in the LA Dodgers Turner/Scherzer deal. Just never seemed like he could find the plate.
• Donovan Casey, the 4th guy out of 4 prospects in the LA Dodgers Turner/Scherzer deal. Was on the 40-man, couldn’t make it.
• Alameo Hernandez: I liked this guy this year, solving AA as a starter at age 24 and moving up to AAA. I really hope they re-sign him.
• Matt Adams, who stuck with AAA for the entire season despite being 37 and having made millions as a major leaguer. I wonder if he was auditioning for a coaching role.

There’s still some guys who were 16IFA classes or older who remain on the roster despite them seemingly being at the end of their 6-7 years of minor league service. The oldest such name is a 13IFA Luis Reyes, who still is listed as active. Jordy Barley was a 16IFA and remains, as does guys Niomar Gomez and Gerardi Diaz. Either they’ve been declared MLFAs and MILB.com’s site isn’t updated (which happens all.the.time.) or they’ve signed multi-year deals to remain.

Fun fact: The oldest remaining originally drafted player for the team remains Stephen Strasburg, 2009 draftee. After that, the next oldest is Carter Kieboom, 1st rounder in 2016. Zero players now remain with the system for the entire 2017 draft with the MLFA declaration of guys like Troop and Tetreault (this was the Seth Romero draft).

We havn’t even returned the 60-day DL players back to the active roster, and Baseball America goes and drops its first pre-2024 analysis. They released their pre-2024 top 10, plus their list of “best tools” and their stab at a 2027 roster for the team.

Here’s the top 10 and some quick thoughts.

BA pre-2024 top 10	Last Name	First Name	Position
1	Crews	Dylan	OF (CF)
2	Wood	James	OF (Corner)
3	House	Brady	SS/3B
4	Cavalli	Cade	RHP (Starter)
5	Morales	Yohandy	3B
6	Rutledge	Jackson	RHP (Starter)
7	Hassell III	Robert	OF (CF)
8	Vaquero	Cristian	OF (CF)
9	Green	Elijah	OF (CF)
10	Susana	Jarlin	RHP (Starter)

• No surprise on top 3. Wouldn’t surprise me to see all three start in AA in 2024, all three move up together, and all three debut in the majors by mid-season.
• Cavalli at #4 isn’t terribly surprising … if he shows that he’s got pre-TJ stuff upon his return, he could/should be back up to #2.
• Morales really had a solid debut, bumping him above some more familiar names. Its about time we had a 2nd round pick work out for us.
• Rutledge’s 2023 season, which shocked this observer, has him now just outside the top echelon of our prospect royalty. Talk about a turnaround from his 2022 season.
• Hassell’s season just seemed to drag him down, post hamate-bone surgery. Remember, it wasn’t too long ago that he was the #2 prospect in the system. I’d really like to see him regain that luster.
• Vaquero remains more hype than production, but at least he’s stateside now.
• Green’s K numbers have officially taken the shine of his star. He’s dropped to #9 here, and that’s low enough that he’s no longer a sure thing.
• Susana somehow comes in at #10, despite ending the season injured and repeating a level.

Players outside the top 10 looking in. Only one real nit:

• I’d put Lile above Susana at this point.
• I guess Bennett is going to be in the mid teens for the next year and a half with TJ recovery.
• Sykora? Where do you put him?
• DJ Herz? Who would you rather have right now? Herz or Susana? Just saying.

FYI, the Big Board now has a 2024 tab, and i’ve caught it up to today’s moves, which were to return the 60-day DL guys to the 40-man roster, which required the DFA of Matt Cronin. More moves to follow, since we’re definitely looking at some rule-5 protections in a week or so.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/186nm-v5F-zTCoR2Be7TFYM3e2cZ-gYi2WVqJLEkHdmc/

(freely stealing this idea from Luke Erickson and nationalsprospects.com, when Luke attends a game in person as he frequently does).

So, for those of you who don’t know, I’ve relocated to Richmond, home of the SF Giant’s AA affiliate known as the “Flying Squirrels.” I suppose its because Virginia’s capital city has a ton of squirrels flying around (no actually, it was a fan-based naming competition back in 2009). And our own Harrisburg Senators were in town this week for a 6-game series. So I got a chance to see our prospects in action last night.

Here’s my recap.

In rough lineup order from last night (here’s the box-score), a game our team lost 7-6 in a walk-off, which was great for the home town fans but pretty galling for a fan of the National’s team, as they blew multiple leads throughout the night to give away the game.

Hitters first:

• It only took about 3 minutes for our team to grab the lead 3-0. As the adage goes in Minor League baseball … get there early because you don’t want to miss any action. We missed it of course because, well, when you’re attending a baseball game with kids, the odds of getting there for opening pitch are usually nil. After a Jacob Young leadoff single and a Robert Hassell walk, Trey Lipscomb blasted a ball to left for a quick 3-run lead while we were parking the car.
• Lipscomb played 2B, has already earned a promotion this year to AA, and has continued to stay hot. He went 3-5 on the night, was a double short of the cycle, is batting 3rd for the AA team, and honestly looks like he could really be a find. We’ve watched Luis Garcia scuffle playing 2B (and looking like he eats big macs every night); Lipscomb is an athletic beast who can play anywhere on the dirt.
• Young: played CF instead of Hassell, went 2-4 with a walk on the night, was a real spark plug at the top, and made a really nice ranging catch at the wall early on. I like this guy too, and talked about how he may possibly fit into the OF log jam of prospects we have.
• James Wood has been struggling since getting to AA, but he hit an absolute blast to right field that was awe-inspiring from our 1st-baseline bleacher seats. Phew. Someone’s going home with a dented roof, because he cleared both fences in right and nailed a car in the parking lot. He was only 1-5 on the night, but he did hit the ball hard 3 times.
• Hassell looked absolutely awful. 0-4 with a walk and three strikeouts. Honestly, not once did he take what i’d call a confident swing. This is consistent with basically his entire Nats career so far. I know he had hamate bone issues, which takes a year to recover from. I know he’s a top prospect and hit while in SD’s system. What the heck is going on here? I mean, was all his production in San Diego’s system due to hitter’s parks?
• Brady House batted 5th and was “just” 1-4, but it was probably a bit unlucky 1-4. He had a sharp line out to 2B for one out and he blasted a ball to CF that was caught on the warning track for another out. He also looked very, very solid at 3B, making a ton of plays, including a couple of in-between hops that looked tough on the way off the bat.
• Frankie Tostado played 1B and batted 6th: nothing striking either way.
• Israel Pineda was free swinging at the plate, waved at a bunch of pitches, had two punchouts. I know his value is behind the plate, but the dude is only hitting .175 for AA right now.
• Lucious Fox…. looked awful at the plate. 0-4, three strikeouts, and his body language basically screamed “I don’t want to be here.” He’s 26, batting 8th in AA, and I wonder why he’s still on the team. At least he’s DFA’d off the 40man at this point. If we had a more pressing SS prospect, i’d guess that he’d be gone. Lipscomb looks more like a 2B/3B guy, Cluff is an org guy, and high-A doesn’t really have anyone banging on the door.
• Jackson Cluff could be starting at SS instead of Fox; tonight he DH’d and batted 9th. Ask yourself: if you are batting your DH ninth … is it safe to say you have roster issues? Normally Cluff is at SS, Trey Harris is at DH, and the team shows a bit more pop. That being said, Cluff, did an admirable job table setting, going 2-3 with a walk and easily stealing bases all night.

Pitchers

• Mitchell Parker got the start on the mound. If you’ve never seen him … his mechanics scream one guy: Clayton Kershaw. He has the same arm stretch straight up to the sky to start, he has similar arm action, a funky delivery, he’s lefty, and he gets a ton of Ks. He had 8 punch-outs in 5IP on the night.
• Parker gave up a run in the 3rd on this sequence: 10-bounce grounder, balk, Wild Pitch, and then sac fly. So, not exactly helping himself, but also not really getting pounded early.
• But he then went this sequence in the 5th: bunt single to open (House was literally playing on the grass at 3B and by the time he got to the bunt the guy was rounding first), then another seeing-eye-single up the middle to have 2 on with nobody out, then Richmond’s best hitter blasted a homer to score three and tie the game.
• Honestly, Parker looked pretty solid on the night. I only saw two really hard hit balls, both by the same guy Shane Matheny who seemed to have a read on him all night. But, as has been a pattern for Parker, he was profligate with his pitches, needing 92 to get through five innings. I still like him as a prospect, even though his ERA in AA is in the upper 4.s
• After Parker came out, 2021 NDFA Tyler Schoff came in and pitched a neatly effective 6th. A NDFA advancing to AA is a pretty solid outcome; he didn’t have super awesome stuff, but he was effective. He’s looking like that classic middle reliever RHP guy who gets by on movement and who suddenly is pitching in the 6th for the big league club.
• Malvin Pena pitched the 7th and 8th; he looked like a slightly trimmer version of Lee Smith on the mound. Pena pitched a clean 7th but then went homer-double-RBI single in the 8th to cough up a 6-4 lead and send the home crowd into a frenzy. The single went to Wood, who made a valiant attempt to throw the guy out at the plate and nearly got him. Solid defensive play.
• So, now its tied 6-6 in the 9th and we bring in Patrick Ruotolo, a MLFA we signed out of the Mexican League in early July and who pitched for this same Richmond team in 2021 for nearly a full season. Now he’s a 28yr old reliever in AA … and he pitched like it. Walk to open the 9th (already a 50% chance of that guy scoring), then a sharply hit single for two-on, none out. Ruotolo did induce what looked like it could be a DP grounder, but it ate up Lipscomb at 2nd and an arguable force-call didn’t go his way. Bases loaded, none out, and the same guy who blasted a homer earlier in the game lofted a deep flyball to CF that easily scored the walk-off run. Not an impressive outing from Ruotolo.

So, that’s the observations from the game. Senators blow leads of 3-0 and 6-4 to lose 7-6. The post-game fireworks were cool though.

First Fangraphs, then BA, now MLBPipeline.

All three shops have taken the opportunity of draft and trade deadline acquisitions to do some tweaking of their lists, even from just a few weeks ago, to come up with new top 30s. Here’s some reaction to MLBpipeline’s list.

First, here’s the 30 now (the data is open to the public via the above link)

MLB Pipeline 8/10/23	Last Name	First Name	Position
1	Crews	Dylan	OF (CF)
2	Wood	James	OF (Corner)
3	House	Brady	SS/3B
4	Cavalli	Cade	RHP (Starter)
5	Green	Elijah	OF (CF)
6	Lile	Daylen	OF (CF)
7	Morales	Yohandy	3B
8	Hassell III	Robert	OF (CF)
9	Vaquero	Cristian	OF (CF)
10	Bennett	Jake	LHP (Starter)
11	Sykora	Travis	RHP (Starter)
12	Susana	Jarlin	RHP (Starter)
13	Rutledge	Jackson	RHP (Starter)
14	Lipscomb	Trey	3B
15	Made	Kevin	SS
16	Herz	DJ	LHP (Starter)
17	Alu	Jake	3B
18	De La Rosa	Jeremy	OF (Corner)
19	Henry	Cole	RHP (Starter)
20	Pinckney	Andrew	OF (Corner)
21	Quintana	Roismar	OF (CF)
22	Pineda	Israel	C
23	Millas	Drew	C
24	Lara	Andry	RHP (Starter)
25	Baker	Darren	2B
26	Parker	Mitchell	LHP (Starter)
27	Cruz	Armando	SS
28	White	T.J.	OF (Corner)
29	Brzykcy	Zach	RHP (Reliever)
30	Ferrer	Jose	LHP (Reliever)

Now, here’s some reactions.

• Our big 3 2023 draftees slot in at #1 (Crews), #7 (Morales), and #11 (Sykora). Almost identical to their rankings on BA’s updated list. However, there’s a surprise 2023 draftee further down.
• Daylen Lile gets bumped up tremendously, from 15th just a week ago to #6 now. That’s a statement. That’s above Hassell. Especially for someone who’s hitting .188 in high-A right now as a 20yr old. Might be a bit bullish on Lile, who really will have to work to get ahead of the big-time OF prospects in our system to ever make an impact.
• Hassell takes a dive in the rankings. I get it; he hasn’t hit since we traded for him. He was also 20 in AA last fall and has nursed injuries. Hamate bone breakage is like the TJ for pitchers; its a year before you can really start to pass judgement again. He broke it in last year’s AFL (Oct 13th), so I promise not to complain about him again until 2024.
• Susana gets dropped several spots, and rightfully so. He’s someone who just is not progressing right now.
• Like on BA’s list Lipscomb gets a big bump up. He’s showing solid BA and HR numbers this year and the ability to play anywhere on the dirt. Can’t ask for much more.
• Nice and neat, our two newly acquired prospects in trade (Mead and Herz) slot in at #15 and #16. That’s much higher for Herz than BA’s ranking, and significantly higher for Mead (who BA didn’t even have in top 30-35). Good; I’d like to think we got some value for Candelario.
• Finally some prospect love for Alu, bumped up 10 spots before accounting for the 5 players who layered over top of him (meaning really he increased 15 spots). Just in time for him to probably lose his rookie eligibility, as he seems to be getting a some PT for the big club.
• Jeremy De La Rosa dropped significantly, from 8th to 18th. And rightfully so; he’s ridiculously struggling in High-A as a 21 yr old. Here’s a crazy stat: he has 126Ks in 88 games played. Putting him on the 40-man was such a ridiculous decision, and its looking even more ridiculous each day. Even if he turns it around, by the time he’s ready to make an impact he’ll be totally out of options, forcing the hand of the big club. I said this last fall, and I’ll say it again: NOBODY was going to claim this guy and carry him on their MLB roster for an entire season. Nobody. There was zero reason to add him last fall, and honestly they could have probably snuck him through Rule5 again this coming winter. Grrr.
• Henry dropped from 12 to 19 (so only a couple spots with 5 new people above him), but still indicative of what we all feared; he just doesn’t look like the same guy post surgery. If he can’t recover as a top-end prospect, that really puts a damper on the Nats future rotation plans.
• 2023 4th rounder Andrew Pinckney comes in 20th in his first ranking post draft. Wow. You don’t generally see under-slot draftees from the 4th-10th rounds popping up on prospect ranks.
• Pineda actually bumped up a bunch of slots when accounting for all the new players above him, going from 23 to 22 (so really, rising at least 5 spots). I don’t really understand why; he’s barely played this year. Maybe its just because of how far others have fallen (see next).
• Millas fast rising, from 28 to 23, so really rising 10 spots. As discussed in the comments from before, I think Millas is much more deserving catcher prospect right now than Pineda. I mean, he’s got better offensive numbers, he’s the starter in AAA. Is it just the age difference (25 vs 23 for Pineda?)
• Lara: from 14 to 24 as he continues to dumbfound this observer as to why he’s in High-A.
• Baker goes from 29 to 25, so really up like 9 spots. Makes sense. Still don’t get why you’d have Baker in the low 20s, which usually implies someone who probably doesn’t ever get to the majors, for a player who’s in AAA, has hit at every level, and who probably could make his debut this fall if we get bedeviled with injuries. Is it just a blind spot prospect watchers have for undersized guys who don’t hit 30 homers? Or (as commenters suggested last post) is it an empty slash line? Probably both.
• Armando Cruz gets shredded, from 14th to 27th. I mean, yeah he’s young (19 in low-A) but he was a $3.9M signing. Its a massive indictment of the scouting department down there if he washes out.
• TJ White goes from 10th to 28th. Ouch. I think he’s now riding the bench in High-A, where he might be overpromoted as a 20yr old. I’m not sure what you do with him. He was drafted as an OF, but has been playing primarily 1B/DH and hitting .175.
• Two relievers in Brzycky and Ferrer round out the top 30.

So, who’s dropped out from their last ranking?

• Roddery Munoz was 21st, now is outside top 30. Probably a little harsh; i mean, he’s a 23rd old starter in AAA, would you put him above a reliever who’s out for the year? I would.
• Matt Cronin was 22nd, now outside top 30. Out for the season as we now know with a back issue. Hey, I have a “back issue” too, and I could barely walk for a year … i couldn’t imagine trying to work out every day and pitch.
• Jared McKenzie was 25th, now is outside top 30. MLBpipeline is the only shop that rated him, and he’s struggled in High-A.
• Brenner Cox, Gerardo Carrillo, and Aldo Ramirez rounded out previous MLBpipeline rankings for the system, but are now pushed well into the 30s with our new acquisitions. None of these guys has done anything to improve their stock in 2023.

Other players worth noting:

• Jacob Young: 24th on BA, nowhere to be found here. Probably should be slightly higher.
• Dustin Saenz: probably org guy now.
• Andy Acevedo and Edwin Solano were our two big money signings this past January, but have not really impressed so far in the DSL. Acevedo is slashing .168/.295/.237. Solano .125/.283/.143. I mean come on.
• Amos Willingham: so, I guess a reliever who actually makes the majors isn’t prospect worthy at all, but other relievers who are out for the year are. ??

Lastly, I’d like to make a comment about former prospect Mason Denaburg. On 8/10/23, he pitched in relief for Low-A and put up this stat line: 1/3rd of an inning, 11 batters faced, he gave up 8 hits and walked another 2 of them. First of all, why would the team leave him in for 11 batters at this point? Second of all, why is this guy even in the organization anymore? He’s 24, he has a 2.50 whip in low-A, and he’s gotten no fewer than 26 appearances this season so far. He has given up 51 runs in 34 innings this season. I hate that his career got derailed so badly, but what’s left to prove at this point? He was thrown back in a couple days later and acquitted himself … but I just have to wonder when the plug gets pulled. Maybe the system depth is just so deep that you can

The major shops are starting to read in the 2023 draftees (and 2023 trade deadline acquisitions) to each team’s farm system rankings. As we did ahead of the season, when a major pundit drops an updated ranking i’ll list it here. Technically Fangraphs’ “Big Board” database was the first to publish, since its essentially a running database of every player, amateur or prospect, but their rankings are wonky (as we discussed yesterday), so we just did a brief review. MLBpipeline dropped overnight, so we’ll talk about it next. Baseball America published a couple days ago behind a paywall, so lets review.

Here’s BA’s updated top 30, which includes some re-ranking, new draftees, and new trade acquisitions.

BA Rank 8/9/23	Last Name	First Name	Position
1	Crews	Dylan	OF (CF)
2	Wood	James	OF (Corner)
3	House	Brady	SS/3B
4	Hassell III	Robert	OF (CF)
5	Green	Elijah	OF (CF)
6	Cavalli	Cade	RHP (Starter)
7	Rutledge	Jackson	RHP (Starter)
8	Morales	Yohandy	3B
9	Vaquero	Cristian	OF (CF)
10	Bennett	Jake	LHP (Starter)
11	Sykora	Travis	RHP (Starter)
12	Susana	Jarlin	RHP (Starter)
13	De La Rosa	Jeremy	OF (Corner)
14	Lile	Daylen	OF (CF)
15	Lipscomb	Trey	3B
16	White	T.J.	OF (Corner)
17	Henry	Cole	RHP (Starter)
18	Cruz	Armando	SS
19	Lara	Andry	RHP (Starter)
20	Ferrer	Jose	LHP (Reliever)
21	Pineda	Israel	C
22	Brzykcy	Zach	RHP (Reliever)
23	Alu	Jake	3B
24	Young	Jacob	OF (CF)
25	Herz	DJ	LHP (Starter)
26	Baker	Darren	2B
27	Quintana	Roismar	OF (CF)
28	Millas	Drew	C
29	Cronin	Matt	LHP (Reliever)
30	Parker	Mitchell	LHP (Starter)

So, Here’s some thoughts on the new names and changes from the pre-draft BA rankings.

• Dylan Crews comes in as our new system #1, which was hard to do because at the time of his drafting we already had a top-5 prospect in James Wood.
• The last time the Nats had two prospects even in the top 10 of the minors was at the very edge of Bryce Harper‘s eligibility, when Anthony Rendon was also ranked highly. The best we ever did while Stephen Strasburg was still eligible seemed to be Drew Storen ranked in the 50-range. So, having a 1-2 punch of Crews and Wood both top 5 is amazing.
• Brady House and Robert Hassell switched spots, probably because House is clearly outperforming Hassell right now. In fact, Hassell basically has stopped hitting after we acquired him; he went from a .290 hitter to a .220 hitter in our organization. I’m not sure what special sauce San Diego gave him, but we need to figure it out.
• Yohandy Morales slots in at #8, between Rutledge and Vaquero. Crews is getting all the attention so far with his hot start in Low-A, but Morales has been there for a week and a half and has a .925 OPS.
• Travis Sykora comes in at #11, right between Bennett and Susana. Hopefully, he’s more like Bennett (well, in as much as he gets to AA quickly, not the “where the heck has Bennett been for two months part) and less like Susana (who has a 5.14 ERA in low-A this year in his age 19 season).
• Trey Lipscomb has been bumped up a couple of slots in the last month thanks to his promotion to AA in his age 23 season and his solid offensive line. However, he’s now bumped from his regular 3B slot by House, who is also in AA, and has been bouncing around to find playing time. He’s got starts at 1B, 2B and SS now, replacing lesser prospects in Harrisburg each time. I sense his eventual spot may end being 2B, replacing the .215 hitting JT Arruda in the lineup. Cluff is also hitting about .215 but plays a true SS, which i’m not sure Lipscomb can do long-term. The situation may work itself out if House keeps mashing his way up the system.
• Jacob Young has been bumped up a few slots. He’s in danger of falling down the depth chart of outfielders given who we have coming up, but for now he’s holding his own and earning promotions.
• Trade acquisition DJ Herz slots in at #25. Lets see how he fares. He got smacked around in his debut, but he’s 22 in AA as a starter, so that doesn’t suck.
• Roismar Quintana dropped from 22 to 27. He’s only slugging .358 this year as a 1B/DH type; that’s not going to cut it.
• Mitchell Parker‘s AA performance has dropped him several slots to just barely holding on to the top 30. I wonder when he’ll convert to relief … and then how quickly he’ll be in the majors after that as a lefty reliever who can get guys out.
• Darren Baker up a couple slots; the guy’s nearly hitting .300 in AAA as a 24yr old, not sure what else you want from him. Most of the 2021 draft class is still in High-A, if they’re even still here.
• Dustin Saenz, Andy Acevedo, and Edwin Solano: were ranked 28th-30th before and now have gotten bumped with the new additions.
• Jake Irvin was ranked 16th; he now has 17 starts under his belt in the majors and has lost his rookie eligibility.

Fangraphs has become the first shop to publish updated system rankings that include our new draftees. Lets do a quick review of where Kiley McDaniel and team have put the new guys.

Reminder, our review of their pre-season Nats top 30-or-so is here: Fangraphs’ methodology leaves a little to be desired and their FV-based ranking does leave us with some weird rankings. That being said, here’s where they’ve slotted in our 3 big 2023 draftees:

• Dylan Crews: New Nats System #2, and #5 overall in the entirety of the minors. Not a bad debut.
• Yohandy Morales: new Nats system #5, outside the top 100.
• Travis Sykora: new Nats system #8, outside the top 100.

I’m sure we’ll start to see other major shops update their rankings and we’ll react as they do.

So, heading into the 2023 draft, a slew of the Nats’ top prospect talents were outfielders. Look at any prospect ranking list for our system and you’ll see top 10 players like Wood, Hassell, Green, Vaquero, etc. I was on board early pining for Skenes as our pick at 1-2 instead of Crews, thinking that, “hey we have a lot of top-end OF talent” and, also, “hey we need some starter prospects.” Alas it was not meant to be; Skenes blew up in the CWS and Pittsburgh popped him 1-1.

So we went and drafted Crews in the 1st, plus Pinckney in the 4th and Nunez in the 14th.

Where the heck are all these guys going to play?

Here’s a quick look at the OF depth chart thanks to the Big Board, with what it looks like now and what it may look like in 2024 with this influx of new talent.

---

Right now, listing guys in order LF/CF/RF and then backups/DHs

• AAA: Rutherford, Hill, Alu, with Reyes and Blankenhorn as backups.

Most of these guys are MLFAs signed either in 2022 or 2023. Hill just got DFA’d off the 40-man. Alu is kind of a utility guy who’s filling in in the OF right now. Mazara just got released. Rutherford is crushing the ball this season, but I wonder if any of these guys are really in the long term plans for the team. I could see a couple of them getting call-ups post-trade deadline if we move some players and need some bodies (Alu since he’s on the 40-man, probably Rutherford too b/c he’s earned it). But for 2024, lots of room here.

• AA: Young, Hassell, Wood, with Harris and Casey as backups.

Wood and Hassell are basically our two top prospects right now, but both are struggling in AA. Young got promoted up this year and is hitting .300 in AA so far but has no power. Casey was demoted down to AA and is a backup, and seems like he’s not long for the organization. Harris seems like an undersized backup.

• High-A: Lile, De La Rosa, McKenzie with Shumpert, Antuna, Wilson as backups.

Antuna is hitting .176 and seems to finally have been taken out of a starting spot; this latest draft class should finally result in his release. Shumpert is a converted SS. Lile just got promoted up to High-A, otherwise nobody here is hitting well. Wilson is 27 and was demoted from AAA for some reason. Its hard to see any of these guys pushing for a promotion the rest of the way.

• Low-A: Emiliani, Green, De La Cruz, with Quintana, Thomas as backups

Emiliani was a 1B but apparently can lumber around LF now, and just got demoted back to Low-A. Quintana may be permanently moved to 1B and may not count here. Green, for all his prospect starlight, is not hitting well at all. De La Cruz is struggling. So is Thomas. Seems like these guys will be repeating Low-A unless they blow up the rest of the way.

• FCL: Ochoa Leyva, Vaquero, Cox with Baca and a slew of guys hitting under .200

Vaquero is the big-name here and he’s hitting .300 as an 18yr old so far in Rookie. Ochoa Leyva holding his own. Cox is not and is looking like a huge 4th round bust so far.

• DSL: Tejada, Acevedo, Batista with Soto and three other 2023 IFAs as backups.

Batista hitting .303, the rest of them hitting like .150. I can’t see any of them getting promoted.

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Here’s what we could be looking at as your starting OFs 2024. Maybe it’s not quite as hard as I thought.

• AAA: Hassell, Wood, Rutherford, with MLFAs (Hill, Blankenhorn, Reyes released or resigned)
• AA: Young, Harris, McKenzie, Lile (Casey relesaed)
• High-A: Crews, Pinckney, Green, De la Rosa, Shumpert (Wilson, Antuna released)
• Low-A: Vaquero, De La Cruz, Nunez, Ochoa Leyva (Thomas, Emiliani released)
• FCL: Cox, Baca, Batista, Marte, Peoples (Contreras, Ramirez released)
• DSL: Current crew plus 2024 signees forcing 2023 underperformer relases

This would mean:

• Aggressively promote Wood in particular to AAA and hope that Hassell continues to develop. Rutherford back in AAA assuming we layer him in the MLB level, otherwise looking at more veteran MLFAs for AAA.
• Definitely aggressive with promotions of McKenzie and Lile to AA, based on their already being promoted this season. Harris and Young treading water.
• This would put new draftees Crews and Pinckney at High-A to start 2024. I do not buy that Crews will do the AFL->AA Strasburg path. Maybe he will and you’re seeing Lile or McKenzie back in High A instead.
• High-A also has too many players … that’s the squeeze. So maybe that does support Crews in AA. this plan has Green promoted (even though he’s not meriting right now) but DLR staying put.
• Nunez at Low-A. Seems right. He is joined by two guys moving up from rookie ball. But not Cox, who may be a blown 4th rounder.
• Everyone else in Rookie ball/DSL staying put, or perhaps 1-2 DSL guys moving inland.

So, maybe the crunch isn’t as bad as we thought. Eventually though if these guys all matriculate as expected, we’re going to have some logjams in the MLB outfield, and likely some trades to acquire assets.

MLB released the rosters for its 2025 Futures Game, kind of a minor league all star exhibition/showcase that’s played the day before the All Star game that has been gaining traction and attention.

The Nats just sent two of our best prospects to the 2023 Futures game, a game supposedly meant to highlight prospects but ridiculously cut short to 7innings (so basically there’s no continuity of play) and streamed on a minor platform (Peacock) that few people pay for. We can tell you that our own James Wood went 0-1 with a BB while Brady House got one of just five hits on the night for the NL team based on the box score. Both those players are now on the MLB roster, and Wood is highly likely to be appearing in the actual All Star game this weekend.

In 2024, we sent our absolute best prospect in Dylan Crews, who started in the game and went 0-3 with a HBP and a SB.

This year, we’re again naming our absolute top prospect in Travis Sykora (though he had to withdraw with injury, being replaced by another top 10 prospect in Clemmey), and also sending recently promoted AAA reliever Grissom, who is barely on the top 30 prospect list. Why Grissom? Well because his dad is managing one of the teams of course. Here’s Keith Law’s preview of the event.

But lets take a step back, call out the Futures game participants for the Washington Franchise over the years, opine whether we actually sent our best prospect(s) at the time, and see if its an indicator of future success. (Note: the links in the years go to the rosters or summaries of the games).

• 2025: Travis Sykora, Marquis Grissom, Jr., Alex Clemmey. Sykora our #1 at the moment with Susana hurt, then subsequently got hurt so Clemmey went in his place. Grissom included for familial reasons; his dad is coaching the AL futures team. So, with Sykora and Clemmey being sent while Crews, House, Lile in the majors, the Nats once again send their best. Career Outcomes: check back in a few years.
• 2024: Dylan Crews, our clear-cut #1 and #2 in all of baseball, so we sent our best. Career Outcome: Crews now promoted and our starting RF when not hurt.
• 2023: James Wood, Brady House. These were inarguably the top 2 ranked prospects in the system as of mid 2023, unless you had a thing for Hassell. Career outcomes: premature of course, but right now Wood looking like a star, House just called up
• 2022: Cade Cavalli, Darren Baker. Cavalli was still #1 or #2 on most lists, joined by the likes of House, Henry, and Vaquero. Cavalli was a much higher visibility in 2022, while Baker’s inclusion was probably positional scarcity filling last year, and is really a fringe prospect.
• 2021: Cade Cavalli was either our #1 or #2 prospect to Jackson Rutledge as of the 2021 futures game, so we sent our best.
• 2020: No game: Covid
• 2019: Carter Kieboom. He became our #1 prospect upon Robles promotion in June 2019. Career outcome: Man, what the heck happened to this guy. Forgot how to hit, forgot how to field, then had TJ, had a flexor Mass elbow issue, to outrighted and released.
• 2018: Carter Kieboom, Luis Garcia. Victor Robles was set to go but got hurt, and Juan Soto was set to go but got promoted, and at this moment they were our #1 and #2 prospects. Kieboom and Garcia were not far behind though. Career outcomes: Garcia was thought to be a bust for years, but now produces as our starting 2B.
• 2017: Victor Robles; with the departure of Giolito and the graduation of Turner, Robles became our clear #1 prospect.
• 2016: Reynaldo Lopez: At the time of the game, Giolito and Turner were still 1-2 for us, but they went last year so we sent our #3 or #4 prospect in Lopez. Career Outcome: Lopez struggled for us, then we flipped him to CWS in the Adam Eaton trade and he pitched effectively in their bullpen as an 8th inning guy with decent numbers for a while.
• 2015: Lucas Giolito, Trea Turner. Giolito was our top prospect for several years before getting traded. Giolito famously shipped to CWS when the Nats apparently couldn’t fix his mechanics (CWS could). Turner obviously starred for us for years.
• 2014: Lucas Giolito, Michael Taylor. Giolito was our top prospect for several years before getting traded. Taylor was a mercurial player for us for years, now is succeeding for Minnesota.
• 2013: A.J. Cole, Taylor Jordan. Our top prospects at the time of the game were Lucas Giolito and Brian Goodwin: Giolito was still recovering from TJ so wasn’t a candidate to go (he went the next year). Cole could never figure it out for us, so we traded him for nothing to the Yankees. He eventually became a decent bullpen guy for a couple of years before getting hurt. Jordan got to the majors and showed a flash of promise later this summer in 2013, but couldn’t cut it as a MLB starter and faded away.
• 2012: Alex Meyer, Felipe Rivero. Anthony Rendon was our clear #1 at the time of the game and didn’t go; was he hurt? Could have been. Meyer was generally #2. Career outcomes: Meyer was yet another arm we couldn’t make work, so we turned him into Denard Span. To be fair, neither could Minnesota, who flipped him to the Angels, where he had a solid season in 2017, got hurt, and disappeared. Rivero? Flipped in the Mark Melancon deal to Pittsburgh, where he changed his name to Vazquez, then was a decent reliever until he got arrested for a litany of charges related to underage girls. I believe he’s still in prison as of this writing, but could be wrong.
• 2011: Bryce Harper, Brad Peacock: Harper was clearly our #1 prospect at the time. Career outcomes: Peacock got flipped in the Gio Gonzalez trade, made his way to Houston and pitched pretty well for them for years. Harper of course we know the story.
• . Peacock got flipped in the Gio Gonzalez trade, made his way to Houston and pitched pretty well for them for years. Harper of course we know the story.
• 2010: Danny Espinosa, Eury Perez. We graduated a ton of guys this year just prior to the game, so believe it or not you can make a credible argument that Espinosa was our #1 prospect at the time of the game. Career Outcome: Espinosa hit at the mendoza line for this team for years before getting flipped to the Angels in our down 2016 season. Perez was a 4-A guy, got DFA’d in late 2014 and was claimed; he had one decent season for Atlanta then disappeared.

So, historically the Nats have really done a nice job of sending our best prospects to this show case, which can’t necessarily be said for all the teams out there. And for the most part, we’ve seen decent career outcomes for those players who we sent.

Now that we’re past CWS, but not yet to the draft, lets clear out some psots.

If a major prospect scouting shop publishes a top 30 list, you know i’m all over it. On June 15th, BA did so for our team. Here’s an analysis of the list, looking at players who rose/fell against BA’s list in January, as well as how BA’s rankings for a player may be out of whack with the general consensus by all the major shops.

Here’s the Mid-Season BA top 30 list in order:

BA Rank 6/15/23	Last Name	First Name	Position
1	Wood	James	OF (Corner)
2	Hassell III	Robert	OF (CF)
3	House	Brady	SS/3B
4	Green	Elijah	OF (CF)
5	Cavalli	Cade	RHP (Starter)
6	Rutledge	Jackson	RHP (Starter)
7	Vaquero	Cristian	OF (CF)
8	Bennett	Jake	LHP (Starter)
9	Susana	Jarlin	RHP (Starter)
10	De La Rosa	Jeremy	OF (Corner)
11	Lile	Daylen	OF (CF)
12	White	T.J.	OF (Corner)
13	Henry	Cole	RHP (Starter)
14	Cruz	Armando	SS
15	Lara	Andry	RHP (Starter)
16	Irvin	Jake	RHP (Starter)
17	Lipscomb	Trey	3B
18	Ferrer	Jose	LHP (Reliever)
19	Pineda	Israel	C
20	Brzykcy	Zach	RHP (Reliever)
21	Alu	Jake	3B
22	Quintana	Roismar	OF (CF)
23	Millas	Drew	C
24	Parker	Mitchell	LHP (Starter)
25	Cronin	Matt	LHP (Reliever)
26	Saenz	Dustin	LHP (Starter)
27	Young	Jacob	OF (CF)
28	Baker	Darren	2B
29	Acevedo	Andy	OF
30	Solano	Edwin	SS

Now, here’s some observations.

• Same top 2 for BA as in January, and confirming that Wood may be the best player we got in the whole post-World Series dumping. He’s settled a bit since his AA promotion, but still has an OPS north of .800 in AA at age 20.
• They’ve elevated House a couple spots, and they have him higher than anyone else had him this spring at #3. Why? Because he forced his way into High-A a couple of weeks ago and looks recovered from back and wrist issues. 2023 OPS so far: .829. not bad.
• Big Riser: Rutledge; #9 in January, #6 now and in stark contrast to other shops, one of which has him all the way down at #17. And who can blame them? So far in 2023; 11 starts, 3.18 ERA, 1.11 whip in AA. Last year in Low-A: 20 starts, 4.90 ERA, 1.39 whip. I mean, who would have predicted that you’d take a guy who couldn’t get guys out in Low-A, bump him up two levels, and suddenly he’s a top prospect again?
• Jake Bennett bumped up 3 spots from #11 to #8. It was probably dumb to start the guy in low-A as a 2nd round pick from a major conference with CWS experience … and rightfully so, he dominated it in April and early May. Lets hope he pushes for another promotion and ends the season in AA.
• Daylen Lile: what is going on here? BA had him at #27 in January, basically a non-prospect, now he’s #11 in the system. A true CF with some power and a ton of speed (18 SBs in 19 attempts) and he’s hitting in low-A; he needs a promotion. But where will he go? High-A has 40-man player De La Rosa in CF, AA has Hassell, AAA has Alex Call. In this humble opinion, the Nats could (finally) cut bait on Antuna, who is hitting f*cking .151 in High-A after getting outrighted off the 40-man and it confounds me why he still plays, so as to make some room for Lile or Green, both of whom may need to be promoted soon.
• Cole Henry treads water at #13, a bit lower than other shops. Its a “show me” season for Henry, to see if he’s recovered from a major shoulder issue. My hops are not high.
• BA has bumped up Jake Irvin, rightfully so. He may be posting a 5.25 ERA in the majors, but at least he’s in the Majors … which, remember, is the entire point of prospects. Should Irvin be ranked higher than guys like Susana (#9) or Lara (#15), who can’t get guys out in the bus league? Yes he should.
• Trey Lipscomb gets a bump up a few spots. He’s quietly made his way to AA a year after being drafted … think about this? Lipscomb was a 3rd rounder last year and is in AA, but Bennett was a 2nd rounder and is in High-A. Why? Lipscomb may be in AA due to positional scarcity; he’s not earning it at the plate with a sub-700 OPS figure right now, and he may very well trade spots with House in a few weeks when Brady needs to get moved up and play 3B.
• #21 Jake Alu gets back onto the rankings after being dropped out of the top 30. #21 seems about right for a 4-A corner infielder/outfielder type.
• Quintana dumped 5 spots, and rightfully so. He’s struggling in Low-A, and they’ve moved him to be a 1B/DH type. Not good; he’s gonna have to really hit to move forward as a 1B only guy.
• Mitchell Parker has taken a nose-dive, from #14 in Jan to #24 today. Rightfully so; he’s finally getting hit after succeeding in Low and High-A in the last couple of years. I think this was an inevitability; scouts never favored the guy, who seemed to be getting outs mostly due to deception and a funky delivery. in AA, he’s been exposed so far. One of 2 things happens from here: he either “figures out the level” in early 2024 and keeps on moving, or he’s relegated to be “funky lefty out of the pen” guy, a role that might get him to the majors faster.
• Matt Cronin also dumped a ton of spots, from #18 in January to #25, and rightly so; he’s getting shelled in AAA as a 25-yr old lefty bullpen arm. Word of caution; if they’re a reliever in college … they better be a really, really good reliever to count on them going forward.
• Dustin Saenz pops onto the list at #26 after not being ranked by practically anyone for a while, on the strength of his dominating low-A and getting moved to Wilmington. Unfortunately, he was already too old for low-A, made one start in high-A and got shelled. We’ll see where he goes from here.
• Jacob Young also resurrecting his prospect career, popping in at #27. the 2021 7th rounder without a ton of prospect cred hit .300 in high-A and got moved up to AA, where he’s sharing an OF with two of our best prospects in Hassell and Wood. He’s only 23, and he’s got some speed even if he’s undersized. Should be interesting to see where he goes.
• Another guy without much prospect love pops in at #28: Darren Baker. I mean, the guy is now in AAA, starting at 24, hitting .300. I’m not sure why he’s not a higher-ranked prospect honestly. Maybe b/c he’s got a limited ceiling as a utility 2B guy in the majors.
• The last two guys ranked were the top 2 prospects from the 2023 IFA class, Andy Acevedo and Edwin Solano. I call these types of prospects, “Call me in 3 years if/when they show up in Florida.”

Jan 2023 top 30 players now off the list:

• #16 Thad Ward: probably has exhausted his rookie status at this point.
• #23 Evan Lee: what happened to this guy? Went from AFL darling to 40-man to a lefty reliever who can’t get guys out in AA at age 26.
• #26 Gerardo Carrillo; Maybe we over-rated this guy all along. Ok, maybe *I* overrated this guy all along. Initially he presented as a more important player in the big Scherzer/Turner trade; we got back Grey, Ruiz, Carrillo, and Casey. Clearly Ruiz and Grey were the prizes, Casey a utility throw in (who’s now 27 in AA hitting .201), and we have Carrillo, who has never really shown he can get guys out above A Ball and is on the season-ending DL list right now.
• #28 Tim Cate: BA was one of the last hold-outs on the Tim Cate prospect bandwagon in January, now even they can’t find room.
• #29 Aldo Ramirez: 8 good starts for Low-A in 2021, and he hasn’t pitched since. Missed all of 2022, still on the 60-day dl halfway through 2023. Will he ever come back?
• #30 Will Frizzell, the Mr. Irrelevant of the Jan 2023 list. The team over-promoted him in the off season, quickly exposed him in AA as he hit .155, now he’s back in High-A where he should have been, hitting a healthy .889 OPS figure. Problem is … he’s been a full time DH this entire year, not even taking the field at 1B. Unless he’s posting a thousand OPS figure, its hard to be a prospect like that.

Other Notable names not ranked:

• Brenner Cox: not every prospect shop likes him, and he couldn’t even come close to cutting it in Low-A this year. Might be a wasted prep 4th rounder.
• Jared MacKenzie: he hit .400 in low-A last year, true CF. He’s not bad. Would you put him above a 1B only guy who’s the same age but in a lower league? Probably.
• Seth Shuman: Looked great in High-A until a sudden season ending injury (which screams TJ); no wonder he’s not on the fringes of the top 30.
• Samuel Infante, Brandon Boissiere, Jackson Cluff: what happened to these guys?
• Yasel Antuna: just kidding.

So, in years’ past, when the Nats were drafting somewhere besides the top 5, analyzing mock drafts was a lot more fun. We could look at who was predict to go at the top, then we could analyze all the myriad of names that could conceivably fall to the nats wherever they were picking.

In 2023 though, this exercise has proven to be pretty simple. There’s basically two guys who practically every pundit thinks will end up on our team, so this collecting of mock draft exercise seems futile.

Here’s some early takes on the 2023 draft class, with some mocks. By May, consensus amongst most scouts was the same top 5 in some varying order, then a gap to 6 and beyond.

Top 5 expected to be ( not necessarily in this order):

• Dylan Crews, OF from LSU, is the current #1 overall projection. Hit 349/.463/.691 as a sophomore for LSU with 22 homers. Plays CF but likely a corner in pro ball at 6’0″ 200lbs of power.
• Max Clark, a prep OF from Indiana with an all-Lefty speed/hit tool comparable to Jacoby Ellsbury. Possible 5-tool lefty who can hit 96 on the mound. Vanderbilt commit, isn’t getting to college. Struck out just 3 times in his entire junior season while slashing .577/.717/1.126.
• Walker Jenkins, a prep corner OF from NC. Commit to UNC. Underclassman on 18U national team, Projects to 30-home run power, had more walks and homers than Ks his Junior season.
• Wyatt Langford, OF, Florida. Huge bat, led Florida in slash lines in 2022 and now projects as a possible CF, turning him into an upper-end 1st rounder.
• Paul Skenes, RHP, LSU: Air Force xfer who is helium guy based on Fall 2022 work. Big arm. Exploded onto the scene in Spring 2023, added velocity, now expected top 2 picks.

Other names who appeared in earlier top 5 lists but who have dropped include:

• Chase Dollander, the RHP Friday starter for Tennessee in 2022. 103/13 K/BB in 79 innings, 2.39 ERA for Best team in college baseball in 2022. Shooting up draft boards with Jacob deGrom comps in 2022, but struggling in 2023. Slipping down the boards.
• Jacob Gonzalez, SS from Ole Miss. Middle of the order bat, slashed .355/.443/.561 for Ole Miss his sophomore season while leading team to CWS title.
• Jacob Wilson, SS Grand Canyon. All WAC as a freshman, starred for Team USA summer 2022. Stock increasing late 2022, rising up.

Here’s some early Mock Drafts that we’ve seen. Nats pick #2 but we’ll put in the top 5 for context.

• BA 2023 Way Too Early mock 7/20/22 (as in, the day after the 2022 draft): Crews, Clark, Dollander, Jenkins, Gonzalez. This is before we knew that the Nats would pick #2, and there’s no way they’re leaving top-end college talent on the board in a college-rich draft to pick a prep kid like Clark.
• BA 2023 Draft Class Rank 7/25/22: Clark, Crews, Jenkins, Gonzalez, Dollander. Crews would be a very, very solid pick at #2, despite our top three prospects also being OFs.
• BA First Full Mock post lottery 12/7/22: Crews, Dollander, Langford, Wilson, Gonzalez. Dollander as the top arm would be great, but beware his spring season as Tennessee’s Friday night starter.
• MLBPipeline Mock draft 12/15/22 with top 100 release: Crews, Dollander, Clark, Skenes, Langford. MLBPipeline notes that they went chalk to their top 100 at the top, noting that Dollander is the “best pitching prospect since Strasburg.” Fitting if the Nats get him.
• BA’s first official 2023 Mock draft 3/16/23: Crews, Langford, Skenes, Dollander, Clark.
• MLBpipeline Callis first mock 5/4/23: Crews, Skenes, Langford, Jenkins, Clark
• BA Mock v2.0 5/11/23: Crews, Skenes, Jenkins, Langford, Clark
• BA 5/17/23 staff draft. Crews, Skenes, Jenkins, Langford, Clark as well.
• MLBpipeline Mayo Mock 5/18/23: Crews, Skenes, Jenkins, Clark, Langford
• Keith Law 1st mock 5/23/23: Crews, Skenes, Clark, Jenkins, Langford
• MLBpipeline Callis mock 6/1/23: Crews, Skenes, Langford, Jenkins, Clark
• BA 6/8/23 mock 3.0: Crews, Skenes, Langford, Jenkins, Clark

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So, what do I think will happen? I think Pittsburgh, a notoriously conservative franchise in the draft, will cut a small deal with Crews (giving him the same $$ that he’d get at 2nd overall) and take him 1-1. A positional player is less risky than a pitcher, always. This then lets the Nats take the big arm, the guy who everyone says is the best pitching prospect since Strasburg, and they can start him in High-A or AA like with Strasburg, with an eye on getting to the majors maybe by late 2024.

What if the Pirates take Skenes? Then the Nats trip over themselves to take Crews. I don’t care how many OF prospects we have right now … Crews is that good. I don’t buy that Langford can play CF (if he could, he’d be doing so), and I’d rather have a college guy versus a prep guy.

What if the Pirates don’t take Crews or Skenes? If this happens … I think the Nats take Skenes.