Nationals Arm Race

The first major shop to release a significant ranking for the 2024 prospect season has come out, and it is the standard bearer Baseball America. This year i’ll keep a running list of every ranking that i’ve seen and just build on it as i post. So far, here’s what we’ve seen:

Here is a list of Every Nats prospect list i’ve ever captured. It was last uploaded 1/25/24 to capture the data from last June to today. There’s now 223 ranking lists in this xls, dating to the Baseball America Nov 2004 ranking for our 2004 prospects (#1 prospect for the system in Nov 2004? Mike Hinckley. ouch).

Here’s the pre-2024 list of prospect ranks that have been published so far.

• BA’s pre-read top 10, announced 11/6/23 (link now defaults to top 30 released today; no changes from the top 10 in Nov to now, a slight indictment perhaps of the BA process)
• Prospects361 top 10, released 11/24/23
• MLBPipeline top 30, post rule5/pre off-season analysis released 12/7/23. Note, the MLBPipeline link always defaults to the current, but i retain the rankings at the time of the capture into an XLS
• Baseball America 2024 top 30 1/24/24: this post

Still to come: Baseball Prospectus, MLBPipeline, Eric Longenhagen/Fangraphs, Keith Law/the Athletic, Prospects1500, Bleacher Report, CBSSports, ProspectsLive, and Prospect Digest. So, lots to come.

Here’s a direct link to the Baseball America 2024 Nats top 30, which is behind a paywall but i’m a subscriber so I’ll list them here. It has detailed scouting reports on all 30 players, which is great especially for the new IFAs.

BA top 30	Last Name	First Name	Position
1	Crews	Dylan	OF (CF)
2	Wood	James	OF (Corner)
3	House	Brady	SS/3B
4	Cavalli	Cade	RHP (Starter)
5	Morales	Yohandy	3B
6	Rutledge	Jackson	RHP (Starter)
7	Hassell III	Robert	OF (CF)
8	Vaquero	Cristian	OF (CF)
9	Green	Elijah	OF (CF)
10	Susana	Jarlin	RHP (Starter)
11	Lile	Daylen	OF (CF)
12	Hurtado	Victor	OF
13	Bennett	Jake	LHP (Starter)
14	Sykora	Travis	RHP (Starter)
15	Herz	DJ	LHP (Starter)
16	Lipscomb	Trey	3B
17	Nunez	Nasim	SS
18	Young	Jacob	OF (CF)
19	Pinckney	Andrew	OF (Corner)
20	Brzykcy	Zach	RHP (Reliever)
21	Pineda	Israel	C
22	Millas	Drew	C
23	Henry	Cole	RHP (Starter)
24	Feliz	Angel	3B/SS
25	Made	Kevin	SS
26	De La Rosa	Jeremy	OF (Corner)
27	Cruz	Armando	SS
28	Baker	Darren	2B
29	White	T.J.	OF (Corner)
30	Parker	Mitchell	LHP (Starter)

Here’s some analysis, going from top to bottom.

• BA has the same basic top 4 for us as nearly every other shop at this point.
• Cavalli is now 25 and is the oldest guy on the top 30. A big portion of our future fortunes sit on his shoulders and his ability to come back at the #2 starter that he was purported to be prior to TJ.
• Morales up to #5 is great to see, especially given our (crummy) track record of 2nd round picks.
• Rutledge at #6 is great news. A year ago he was in the mid-teens at best on most lists. Now he’s on the verge of losing his rookie status in 2024. Based on where he was in 2022, even if he’s a 5th starter that’s found gold.
• Green down to #9. Ok so 139 strikeouts in 75 low-A games isn’t a good thing. His scouting report at BA is an interesting read. Here’s how they grade his tools: Scouting Grades Hit: 30 | Power: 60 | Run: 70 | Field: 55 | Arm: 60. that’s two 60s and a 70. Nobody has 60 power and 70 run; that’s like Eric Davis type combos. He’s a project.
• Our two big IFA signings this month (Victor Hurtado and Angel Feliz) come in at #12 and #24. Ok that’s good. They were both reasonable signings for IFAs; not the $4M for a 16yr old kind.
• We also picked up a new prospect with our Rule5 draftee, Nasim Nunez. Coincidentally, I wonder if Nunez’ drafting spells the end for Kieboom; he’s got no options, they’ve bought a starting 3B and a starting 1B, and he can’t play middle infield like Vargas and Nunez. Heck, even Alu has more positional flexibility than Kieboom.
• Both Bennett (TJ – out all of 2024) and Sykora (prep kid who threw zero innings in 2023) are ahead of DJ Herz. Herz, lest anyone forget, is just 23, solved AA, is on the 40-man roster and is certain to get looks this year. Um. what are we looking at here boys?
• Jacob Young at #18 … well I should hope so!! All he did was rise 3 levels last year and may very well be the starting CF if Robles gets hurt, again.
• Pineda and Millas back to back at 21 and 22. I think the BA staff has guidelines that say, “ok when you get to the mid 20s, just throw in their top-level catcher depth b/c we know they’ll get looks eventually).
• Kevin Made absolutely fell apart after we acquired him, and plummeted down the list. Hope he can recover.
• Mitchell Parker bringing up the rear at #30. So, #30 is where you put polished lefties who are on the 40 man who have solved three minor league levels by the age of 24. Got it

Missing names of note:

• Andy Acevedo and Edwin Solano; both were $1.3M IFA signings last January, and who did near nothing all summer in 2023.
• Brennar Cox. As high as #11 on some lists last year. Geeze. Why do we ever draft prep kids?
• Andry Lara; finally someone ranks him realistically.

All in all, not much to complain about with this list.

Happy Thanksgiving!

The second early publisher of prospect top 10s is Prospects361, written by Rich Wilson, with a definite fantasy focus. I believe he ranks deeper than 10, but you can only see 10 without a premium account.

Pre-2024 Prospect Lists and Analysis:

• Baseball America’s short list/top 10
• Prospects 361/Rich Wilson (this post)

Here’s his top 10 list for us.

pe	Last Name	First Name	Position
1	Crews	Dylan	OF (CF)
2	Wood	James	OF (Corner)
3	House	Brady	SS/3B
4	Vaquero	Cristian	OF (CF)
5	Hassell III	Robert	OF (CF)
6	Cavalli	Cade	RHP (Starter)
7	Morales	Yohandy	3B
8	Green	Elijah	OF (CF)
9	Susana	Jarlin	RHP (Starter)
10	Sykora	Travis	RHP (Starter)

Quick reaction to this top 10 list.

• Nothing really shocking here, despite Wilson’s fantasy tint. For the most part this is a defensible list.
• In the lead-up to the list, he does notice that a lot of our top prospects took steps back or struggled in 2023. And yes he’s right. Hassell didn’t seem right all year. Cavalli missed the entire season with TJ. Bennett GOT TJ. Green strikes out half the time he bats. Susana can’t find the plate. So yeah there’s some angst in the system.
• His top 3 are basically the same as anyone elses right now: Crews, Wood, House.
• Putting Vaquero 4th is ridiculous … and is one of the two really notable fantasy-tinged picks in this list. He’s doing analysis for dynasty leagues who are drafting 18 and 19yr olds, and in those leagues guys like Vaquero are getting snapped up.
• He’s dinged Green down to 8th, whereas most have him a bit higher. He has to figure out how to not strike out.
• 10th was Sykora, entirely on draft bonus amount and hype.

The highest players he doesn’t have ranked would include the likes of:

• Rutledge, who still maintains rookie status. I guess when you’re a 6th starter in the majors, you’re less valuable than an 18 yr old who hasn’t thrown a pitch in pro ball.
• Lile, who MLBpipeline is super-high on.
• Bennett, though to no surprise since he is missing all of 2024.

As was posted yesterday (early this morning?) by Luke over at NationalsProspects.com, BA released its list of known 2023 Minor League Free Agents by team this week. The Nats had no fewer than 30 (!) players listed on BA’s list, to go along with a couple of guys who elected FA a bit earlier this off season plus one guy in Sean Doolittle who was technically declared a MLFA but who announced his retirement in September.

Nats Big Board is now updated; go to the “2024 Releases” tab to see the 30-some odd names just declared FAs.

This massive number of names to me is indicative of one main fact w/r/t our player development lately: we have been signing an inordinate number of MLFAs to one year deals to cover the upper levels of the system. By my count, 19 of these names were signed as MLFAs ahead of the 2023 season. Some of them got MLB playing time as experienced vets (Derek Hill, Anthony Banda) and some of them are still on the 40-man (Meneses, Vargas, and Weems were all MLFAs). But we’ve depended on so many of these guys lately, especially to fill the AAA rosters.

Eight of these newly declared MLFAs were home-grown, which means they’ve been in our system for a long, long time. Many were once well-regarded prospects and we’ve discussed them in this space for years. For all these players, the Draft Tracker and IFA trackers are now updated to indicate their departure. These releases officially cut ties with most of the 2016 IFA class and 2017 Draft class.

• Jake Noll: 16D 7th rounder. Earned a 40-man spot, couldn’t hold on to it.
• Wilmer Perez: 16IFA Catcher who has bounced around levels for years as a backup catcher.
• Yasel Antuna: 16IFA with a massive bonus who never paid off and clogged our 40-man roster for years. A perfect example of teams ignoring simple Economic theory w/r/t Sunk Costs and continuing to treat signing bonuses as “investments” instead of the transactional cash payments they really are.
• Jose Sanchez: another 16IFA backup SS who filled in at High-A and AA this year.
• Alex Troop, 17D 9th rounder who became the classic lefty Long Reliever/Spot Starter rubber-armed guy who soaked up innings for both AAA and AA for this team for years. I could see him re-upping if given the opportunity; he ended up being in the AA rotation for a big chunk of 2023.
• Pedro Gonzalez, 17IFA middle RHP multi-inning reliever who just kind of soaked up innings for Low-A this year.
• Jackson Tetreault: 17D 7th rounder who always seemed to fly under the radar, but got a bunch of starts in AAA in 2022 and looked like he could be a find, getting promoted to the big club. But, he got hurt, missed most of 2023, and now he’s in career limbo. Like Troop, I wonder if he’ll re-up with the team.
• Malvin Pena, a 14IFA (wow) who’s been pitching in this organization for nearly a decade. Had decent numbers as a AA middle reliever.

Other notable names declared MLFAs:

• Gerardo Carillo: the 3rd guy out of 4 prospects in the LA Dodgers Turner/Scherzer deal. Just never seemed like he could find the plate.
• Donovan Casey, the 4th guy out of 4 prospects in the LA Dodgers Turner/Scherzer deal. Was on the 40-man, couldn’t make it.
• Alameo Hernandez: I liked this guy this year, solving AA as a starter at age 24 and moving up to AAA. I really hope they re-sign him.
• Matt Adams, who stuck with AAA for the entire season despite being 37 and having made millions as a major leaguer. I wonder if he was auditioning for a coaching role.

There’s still some guys who were 16IFA classes or older who remain on the roster despite them seemingly being at the end of their 6-7 years of minor league service. The oldest such name is a 13IFA Luis Reyes, who still is listed as active. Jordy Barley was a 16IFA and remains, as does guys Niomar Gomez and Gerardi Diaz. Either they’ve been declared MLFAs and MILB.com’s site isn’t updated (which happens all.the.time.) or they’ve signed multi-year deals to remain.

Fun fact: The oldest remaining originally drafted player for the team remains Stephen Strasburg, 2009 draftee. After that, the next oldest is Carter Kieboom, 1st rounder in 2016. Zero players now remain with the system for the entire 2017 draft with the MLFA declaration of guys like Troop and Tetreault (this was the Seth Romero draft).

We havn’t even returned the 60-day DL players back to the active roster, and Baseball America goes and drops its first pre-2024 analysis. They released their pre-2024 top 10, plus their list of “best tools” and their stab at a 2027 roster for the team.

Here’s the top 10 and some quick thoughts.

BA pre-2024 top 10	Last Name	First Name	Position
1	Crews	Dylan	OF (CF)
2	Wood	James	OF (Corner)
3	House	Brady	SS/3B
4	Cavalli	Cade	RHP (Starter)
5	Morales	Yohandy	3B
6	Rutledge	Jackson	RHP (Starter)
7	Hassell III	Robert	OF (CF)
8	Vaquero	Cristian	OF (CF)
9	Green	Elijah	OF (CF)
10	Susana	Jarlin	RHP (Starter)

• No surprise on top 3. Wouldn’t surprise me to see all three start in AA in 2024, all three move up together, and all three debut in the majors by mid-season.
• Cavalli at #4 isn’t terribly surprising … if he shows that he’s got pre-TJ stuff upon his return, he could/should be back up to #2.
• Morales really had a solid debut, bumping him above some more familiar names. Its about time we had a 2nd round pick work out for us.
• Rutledge’s 2023 season, which shocked this observer, has him now just outside the top echelon of our prospect royalty. Talk about a turnaround from his 2022 season.
• Hassell’s season just seemed to drag him down, post hamate-bone surgery. Remember, it wasn’t too long ago that he was the #2 prospect in the system. I’d really like to see him regain that luster.
• Vaquero remains more hype than production, but at least he’s stateside now.
• Green’s K numbers have officially taken the shine of his star. He’s dropped to #9 here, and that’s low enough that he’s no longer a sure thing.
• Susana somehow comes in at #10, despite ending the season injured and repeating a level.

Players outside the top 10 looking in. Only one real nit:

• I’d put Lile above Susana at this point.
• I guess Bennett is going to be in the mid teens for the next year and a half with TJ recovery.
• Sykora? Where do you put him?
• DJ Herz? Who would you rather have right now? Herz or Susana? Just saying.

FYI, the Big Board now has a 2024 tab, and i’ve caught it up to today’s moves, which were to return the 60-day DL guys to the 40-man roster, which required the DFA of Matt Cronin. More moves to follow, since we’re definitely looking at some rule-5 protections in a week or so.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/186nm-v5F-zTCoR2Be7TFYM3e2cZ-gYi2WVqJLEkHdmc/

(freely stealing this idea from Luke Erickson and nationalsprospects.com, when Luke attends a game in person as he frequently does).

So, for those of you who don’t know, I’ve relocated to Richmond, home of the SF Giant’s AA affiliate known as the “Flying Squirrels.” I suppose its because Virginia’s capital city has a ton of squirrels flying around (no actually, it was a fan-based naming competition back in 2009). And our own Harrisburg Senators were in town this week for a 6-game series. So I got a chance to see our prospects in action last night.

Here’s my recap.

In rough lineup order from last night (here’s the box-score), a game our team lost 7-6 in a walk-off, which was great for the home town fans but pretty galling for a fan of the National’s team, as they blew multiple leads throughout the night to give away the game.

Hitters first:

• It only took about 3 minutes for our team to grab the lead 3-0. As the adage goes in Minor League baseball … get there early because you don’t want to miss any action. We missed it of course because, well, when you’re attending a baseball game with kids, the odds of getting there for opening pitch are usually nil. After a Jacob Young leadoff single and a Robert Hassell walk, Trey Lipscomb blasted a ball to left for a quick 3-run lead while we were parking the car.
• Lipscomb played 2B, has already earned a promotion this year to AA, and has continued to stay hot. He went 3-5 on the night, was a double short of the cycle, is batting 3rd for the AA team, and honestly looks like he could really be a find. We’ve watched Luis Garcia scuffle playing 2B (and looking like he eats big macs every night); Lipscomb is an athletic beast who can play anywhere on the dirt.
• Young: played CF instead of Hassell, went 2-4 with a walk on the night, was a real spark plug at the top, and made a really nice ranging catch at the wall early on. I like this guy too, and talked about how he may possibly fit into the OF log jam of prospects we have.
• James Wood has been struggling since getting to AA, but he hit an absolute blast to right field that was awe-inspiring from our 1st-baseline bleacher seats. Phew. Someone’s going home with a dented roof, because he cleared both fences in right and nailed a car in the parking lot. He was only 1-5 on the night, but he did hit the ball hard 3 times.
• Hassell looked absolutely awful. 0-4 with a walk and three strikeouts. Honestly, not once did he take what i’d call a confident swing. This is consistent with basically his entire Nats career so far. I know he had hamate bone issues, which takes a year to recover from. I know he’s a top prospect and hit while in SD’s system. What the heck is going on here? I mean, was all his production in San Diego’s system due to hitter’s parks?
• Brady House batted 5th and was “just” 1-4, but it was probably a bit unlucky 1-4. He had a sharp line out to 2B for one out and he blasted a ball to CF that was caught on the warning track for another out. He also looked very, very solid at 3B, making a ton of plays, including a couple of in-between hops that looked tough on the way off the bat.
• Frankie Tostado played 1B and batted 6th: nothing striking either way.
• Israel Pineda was free swinging at the plate, waved at a bunch of pitches, had two punchouts. I know his value is behind the plate, but the dude is only hitting .175 for AA right now.
• Lucious Fox…. looked awful at the plate. 0-4, three strikeouts, and his body language basically screamed “I don’t want to be here.” He’s 26, batting 8th in AA, and I wonder why he’s still on the team. At least he’s DFA’d off the 40man at this point. If we had a more pressing SS prospect, i’d guess that he’d be gone. Lipscomb looks more like a 2B/3B guy, Cluff is an org guy, and high-A doesn’t really have anyone banging on the door.
• Jackson Cluff could be starting at SS instead of Fox; tonight he DH’d and batted 9th. Ask yourself: if you are batting your DH ninth … is it safe to say you have roster issues? Normally Cluff is at SS, Trey Harris is at DH, and the team shows a bit more pop. That being said, Cluff, did an admirable job table setting, going 2-3 with a walk and easily stealing bases all night.

Pitchers

• Mitchell Parker got the start on the mound. If you’ve never seen him … his mechanics scream one guy: Clayton Kershaw. He has the same arm stretch straight up to the sky to start, he has similar arm action, a funky delivery, he’s lefty, and he gets a ton of Ks. He had 8 punch-outs in 5IP on the night.
• Parker gave up a run in the 3rd on this sequence: 10-bounce grounder, balk, Wild Pitch, and then sac fly. So, not exactly helping himself, but also not really getting pounded early.
• But he then went this sequence in the 5th: bunt single to open (House was literally playing on the grass at 3B and by the time he got to the bunt the guy was rounding first), then another seeing-eye-single up the middle to have 2 on with nobody out, then Richmond’s best hitter blasted a homer to score three and tie the game.
• Honestly, Parker looked pretty solid on the night. I only saw two really hard hit balls, both by the same guy Shane Matheny who seemed to have a read on him all night. But, as has been a pattern for Parker, he was profligate with his pitches, needing 92 to get through five innings. I still like him as a prospect, even though his ERA in AA is in the upper 4.s
• After Parker came out, 2021 NDFA Tyler Schoff came in and pitched a neatly effective 6th. A NDFA advancing to AA is a pretty solid outcome; he didn’t have super awesome stuff, but he was effective. He’s looking like that classic middle reliever RHP guy who gets by on movement and who suddenly is pitching in the 6th for the big league club.
• Malvin Pena pitched the 7th and 8th; he looked like a slightly trimmer version of Lee Smith on the mound. Pena pitched a clean 7th but then went homer-double-RBI single in the 8th to cough up a 6-4 lead and send the home crowd into a frenzy. The single went to Wood, who made a valiant attempt to throw the guy out at the plate and nearly got him. Solid defensive play.
• So, now its tied 6-6 in the 9th and we bring in Patrick Ruotolo, a MLFA we signed out of the Mexican League in early July and who pitched for this same Richmond team in 2021 for nearly a full season. Now he’s a 28yr old reliever in AA … and he pitched like it. Walk to open the 9th (already a 50% chance of that guy scoring), then a sharply hit single for two-on, none out. Ruotolo did induce what looked like it could be a DP grounder, but it ate up Lipscomb at 2nd and an arguable force-call didn’t go his way. Bases loaded, none out, and the same guy who blasted a homer earlier in the game lofted a deep flyball to CF that easily scored the walk-off run. Not an impressive outing from Ruotolo.

So, that’s the observations from the game. Senators blow leads of 3-0 and 6-4 to lose 7-6. The post-game fireworks were cool though.

First Fangraphs, then BA, now MLBPipeline.

All three shops have taken the opportunity of draft and trade deadline acquisitions to do some tweaking of their lists, even from just a few weeks ago, to come up with new top 30s. Here’s some reaction to MLBpipeline’s list.

First, here’s the 30 now (the data is open to the public via the above link)

MLB Pipeline 8/10/23	Last Name	First Name	Position
1	Crews	Dylan	OF (CF)
2	Wood	James	OF (Corner)
3	House	Brady	SS/3B
4	Cavalli	Cade	RHP (Starter)
5	Green	Elijah	OF (CF)
6	Lile	Daylen	OF (CF)
7	Morales	Yohandy	3B
8	Hassell III	Robert	OF (CF)
9	Vaquero	Cristian	OF (CF)
10	Bennett	Jake	LHP (Starter)
11	Sykora	Travis	RHP (Starter)
12	Susana	Jarlin	RHP (Starter)
13	Rutledge	Jackson	RHP (Starter)
14	Lipscomb	Trey	3B
15	Made	Kevin	SS
16	Herz	DJ	LHP (Starter)
17	Alu	Jake	3B
18	De La Rosa	Jeremy	OF (Corner)
19	Henry	Cole	RHP (Starter)
20	Pinckney	Andrew	OF (Corner)
21	Quintana	Roismar	OF (CF)
22	Pineda	Israel	C
23	Millas	Drew	C
24	Lara	Andry	RHP (Starter)
25	Baker	Darren	2B
26	Parker	Mitchell	LHP (Starter)
27	Cruz	Armando	SS
28	White	T.J.	OF (Corner)
29	Brzykcy	Zach	RHP (Reliever)
30	Ferrer	Jose	LHP (Reliever)

Now, here’s some reactions.

• Our big 3 2023 draftees slot in at #1 (Crews), #7 (Morales), and #11 (Sykora). Almost identical to their rankings on BA’s updated list. However, there’s a surprise 2023 draftee further down.
• Daylen Lile gets bumped up tremendously, from 15th just a week ago to #6 now. That’s a statement. That’s above Hassell. Especially for someone who’s hitting .188 in high-A right now as a 20yr old. Might be a bit bullish on Lile, who really will have to work to get ahead of the big-time OF prospects in our system to ever make an impact.
• Hassell takes a dive in the rankings. I get it; he hasn’t hit since we traded for him. He was also 20 in AA last fall and has nursed injuries. Hamate bone breakage is like the TJ for pitchers; its a year before you can really start to pass judgement again. He broke it in last year’s AFL (Oct 13th), so I promise not to complain about him again until 2024.
• Susana gets dropped several spots, and rightfully so. He’s someone who just is not progressing right now.
• Like on BA’s list Lipscomb gets a big bump up. He’s showing solid BA and HR numbers this year and the ability to play anywhere on the dirt. Can’t ask for much more.
• Nice and neat, our two newly acquired prospects in trade (Mead and Herz) slot in at #15 and #16. That’s much higher for Herz than BA’s ranking, and significantly higher for Mead (who BA didn’t even have in top 30-35). Good; I’d like to think we got some value for Candelario.
• Finally some prospect love for Alu, bumped up 10 spots before accounting for the 5 players who layered over top of him (meaning really he increased 15 spots). Just in time for him to probably lose his rookie eligibility, as he seems to be getting a some PT for the big club.
• Jeremy De La Rosa dropped significantly, from 8th to 18th. And rightfully so; he’s ridiculously struggling in High-A as a 21 yr old. Here’s a crazy stat: he has 126Ks in 88 games played. Putting him on the 40-man was such a ridiculous decision, and its looking even more ridiculous each day. Even if he turns it around, by the time he’s ready to make an impact he’ll be totally out of options, forcing the hand of the big club. I said this last fall, and I’ll say it again: NOBODY was going to claim this guy and carry him on their MLB roster for an entire season. Nobody. There was zero reason to add him last fall, and honestly they could have probably snuck him through Rule5 again this coming winter. Grrr.
• Henry dropped from 12 to 19 (so only a couple spots with 5 new people above him), but still indicative of what we all feared; he just doesn’t look like the same guy post surgery. If he can’t recover as a top-end prospect, that really puts a damper on the Nats future rotation plans.
• 2023 4th rounder Andrew Pinckney comes in 20th in his first ranking post draft. Wow. You don’t generally see under-slot draftees from the 4th-10th rounds popping up on prospect ranks.
• Pineda actually bumped up a bunch of slots when accounting for all the new players above him, going from 23 to 22 (so really, rising at least 5 spots). I don’t really understand why; he’s barely played this year. Maybe its just because of how far others have fallen (see next).
• Millas fast rising, from 28 to 23, so really rising 10 spots. As discussed in the comments from before, I think Millas is much more deserving catcher prospect right now than Pineda. I mean, he’s got better offensive numbers, he’s the starter in AAA. Is it just the age difference (25 vs 23 for Pineda?)
• Lara: from 14 to 24 as he continues to dumbfound this observer as to why he’s in High-A.
• Baker goes from 29 to 25, so really up like 9 spots. Makes sense. Still don’t get why you’d have Baker in the low 20s, which usually implies someone who probably doesn’t ever get to the majors, for a player who’s in AAA, has hit at every level, and who probably could make his debut this fall if we get bedeviled with injuries. Is it just a blind spot prospect watchers have for undersized guys who don’t hit 30 homers? Or (as commenters suggested last post) is it an empty slash line? Probably both.
• Armando Cruz gets shredded, from 14th to 27th. I mean, yeah he’s young (19 in low-A) but he was a $3.9M signing. Its a massive indictment of the scouting department down there if he washes out.
• TJ White goes from 10th to 28th. Ouch. I think he’s now riding the bench in High-A, where he might be overpromoted as a 20yr old. I’m not sure what you do with him. He was drafted as an OF, but has been playing primarily 1B/DH and hitting .175.
• Two relievers in Brzycky and Ferrer round out the top 30.

So, who’s dropped out from their last ranking?

• Roddery Munoz was 21st, now is outside top 30. Probably a little harsh; i mean, he’s a 23rd old starter in AAA, would you put him above a reliever who’s out for the year? I would.
• Matt Cronin was 22nd, now outside top 30. Out for the season as we now know with a back issue. Hey, I have a “back issue” too, and I could barely walk for a year … i couldn’t imagine trying to work out every day and pitch.
• Jared McKenzie was 25th, now is outside top 30. MLBpipeline is the only shop that rated him, and he’s struggled in High-A.
• Brenner Cox, Gerardo Carrillo, and Aldo Ramirez rounded out previous MLBpipeline rankings for the system, but are now pushed well into the 30s with our new acquisitions. None of these guys has done anything to improve their stock in 2023.

Other players worth noting:

• Jacob Young: 24th on BA, nowhere to be found here. Probably should be slightly higher.
• Dustin Saenz: probably org guy now.
• Andy Acevedo and Edwin Solano were our two big money signings this past January, but have not really impressed so far in the DSL. Acevedo is slashing .168/.295/.237. Solano .125/.283/.143. I mean come on.
• Amos Willingham: so, I guess a reliever who actually makes the majors isn’t prospect worthy at all, but other relievers who are out for the year are. ??

Lastly, I’d like to make a comment about former prospect Mason Denaburg. On 8/10/23, he pitched in relief for Low-A and put up this stat line: 1/3rd of an inning, 11 batters faced, he gave up 8 hits and walked another 2 of them. First of all, why would the team leave him in for 11 batters at this point? Second of all, why is this guy even in the organization anymore? He’s 24, he has a 2.50 whip in low-A, and he’s gotten no fewer than 26 appearances this season so far. He has given up 51 runs in 34 innings this season. I hate that his career got derailed so badly, but what’s left to prove at this point? He was thrown back in a couple days later and acquitted himself … but I just have to wonder when the plug gets pulled. Maybe the system depth is just so deep that you can

The major shops are starting to read in the 2023 draftees (and 2023 trade deadline acquisitions) to each team’s farm system rankings. As we did ahead of the season, when a major pundit drops an updated ranking i’ll list it here. Technically Fangraphs’ “Big Board” database was the first to publish, since its essentially a running database of every player, amateur or prospect, but their rankings are wonky (as we discussed yesterday), so we just did a brief review. MLBpipeline dropped overnight, so we’ll talk about it next. Baseball America published a couple days ago behind a paywall, so lets review.

Here’s BA’s updated top 30, which includes some re-ranking, new draftees, and new trade acquisitions.

BA Rank 8/9/23	Last Name	First Name	Position
1	Crews	Dylan	OF (CF)
2	Wood	James	OF (Corner)
3	House	Brady	SS/3B
4	Hassell III	Robert	OF (CF)
5	Green	Elijah	OF (CF)
6	Cavalli	Cade	RHP (Starter)
7	Rutledge	Jackson	RHP (Starter)
8	Morales	Yohandy	3B
9	Vaquero	Cristian	OF (CF)
10	Bennett	Jake	LHP (Starter)
11	Sykora	Travis	RHP (Starter)
12	Susana	Jarlin	RHP (Starter)
13	De La Rosa	Jeremy	OF (Corner)
14	Lile	Daylen	OF (CF)
15	Lipscomb	Trey	3B
16	White	T.J.	OF (Corner)
17	Henry	Cole	RHP (Starter)
18	Cruz	Armando	SS
19	Lara	Andry	RHP (Starter)
20	Ferrer	Jose	LHP (Reliever)
21	Pineda	Israel	C
22	Brzykcy	Zach	RHP (Reliever)
23	Alu	Jake	3B
24	Young	Jacob	OF (CF)
25	Herz	DJ	LHP (Starter)
26	Baker	Darren	2B
27	Quintana	Roismar	OF (CF)
28	Millas	Drew	C
29	Cronin	Matt	LHP (Reliever)
30	Parker	Mitchell	LHP (Starter)

So, Here’s some thoughts on the new names and changes from the pre-draft BA rankings.

• Dylan Crews comes in as our new system #1, which was hard to do because at the time of his drafting we already had a top-5 prospect in James Wood.
• The last time the Nats had two prospects even in the top 10 of the minors was at the very edge of Bryce Harper‘s eligibility, when Anthony Rendon was also ranked highly. The best we ever did while Stephen Strasburg was still eligible seemed to be Drew Storen ranked in the 50-range. So, having a 1-2 punch of Crews and Wood both top 5 is amazing.
• Brady House and Robert Hassell switched spots, probably because House is clearly outperforming Hassell right now. In fact, Hassell basically has stopped hitting after we acquired him; he went from a .290 hitter to a .220 hitter in our organization. I’m not sure what special sauce San Diego gave him, but we need to figure it out.
• Yohandy Morales slots in at #8, between Rutledge and Vaquero. Crews is getting all the attention so far with his hot start in Low-A, but Morales has been there for a week and a half and has a .925 OPS.
• Travis Sykora comes in at #11, right between Bennett and Susana. Hopefully, he’s more like Bennett (well, in as much as he gets to AA quickly, not the “where the heck has Bennett been for two months part) and less like Susana (who has a 5.14 ERA in low-A this year in his age 19 season).
• Trey Lipscomb has been bumped up a couple of slots in the last month thanks to his promotion to AA in his age 23 season and his solid offensive line. However, he’s now bumped from his regular 3B slot by House, who is also in AA, and has been bouncing around to find playing time. He’s got starts at 1B, 2B and SS now, replacing lesser prospects in Harrisburg each time. I sense his eventual spot may end being 2B, replacing the .215 hitting JT Arruda in the lineup. Cluff is also hitting about .215 but plays a true SS, which i’m not sure Lipscomb can do long-term. The situation may work itself out if House keeps mashing his way up the system.
• Jacob Young has been bumped up a few slots. He’s in danger of falling down the depth chart of outfielders given who we have coming up, but for now he’s holding his own and earning promotions.
• Trade acquisition DJ Herz slots in at #25. Lets see how he fares. He got smacked around in his debut, but he’s 22 in AA as a starter, so that doesn’t suck.
• Roismar Quintana dropped from 22 to 27. He’s only slugging .358 this year as a 1B/DH type; that’s not going to cut it.
• Mitchell Parker‘s AA performance has dropped him several slots to just barely holding on to the top 30. I wonder when he’ll convert to relief … and then how quickly he’ll be in the majors after that as a lefty reliever who can get guys out.
• Darren Baker up a couple slots; the guy’s nearly hitting .300 in AAA as a 24yr old, not sure what else you want from him. Most of the 2021 draft class is still in High-A, if they’re even still here.
• Dustin Saenz, Andy Acevedo, and Edwin Solano: were ranked 28th-30th before and now have gotten bumped with the new additions.
• Jake Irvin was ranked 16th; he now has 17 starts under his belt in the majors and has lost his rookie eligibility.

Fangraphs has become the first shop to publish updated system rankings that include our new draftees. Lets do a quick review of where Kiley McDaniel and team have put the new guys.

Reminder, our review of their pre-season Nats top 30-or-so is here: Fangraphs’ methodology leaves a little to be desired and their FV-based ranking does leave us with some weird rankings. That being said, here’s where they’ve slotted in our 3 big 2023 draftees:

• Dylan Crews: New Nats System #2, and #5 overall in the entirety of the minors. Not a bad debut.
• Yohandy Morales: new Nats system #5, outside the top 100.
• Travis Sykora: new Nats system #8, outside the top 100.

I’m sure we’ll start to see other major shops update their rankings and we’ll react as they do.

So, heading into the 2023 draft, a slew of the Nats’ top prospect talents were outfielders. Look at any prospect ranking list for our system and you’ll see top 10 players like Wood, Hassell, Green, Vaquero, etc. I was on board early pining for Skenes as our pick at 1-2 instead of Crews, thinking that, “hey we have a lot of top-end OF talent” and, also, “hey we need some starter prospects.” Alas it was not meant to be; Skenes blew up in the CWS and Pittsburgh popped him 1-1.

So we went and drafted Crews in the 1st, plus Pinckney in the 4th and Nunez in the 14th.

Where the heck are all these guys going to play?

Here’s a quick look at the OF depth chart thanks to the Big Board, with what it looks like now and what it may look like in 2024 with this influx of new talent.

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Right now, listing guys in order LF/CF/RF and then backups/DHs

• AAA: Rutherford, Hill, Alu, with Reyes and Blankenhorn as backups.

Most of these guys are MLFAs signed either in 2022 or 2023. Hill just got DFA’d off the 40-man. Alu is kind of a utility guy who’s filling in in the OF right now. Mazara just got released. Rutherford is crushing the ball this season, but I wonder if any of these guys are really in the long term plans for the team. I could see a couple of them getting call-ups post-trade deadline if we move some players and need some bodies (Alu since he’s on the 40-man, probably Rutherford too b/c he’s earned it). But for 2024, lots of room here.

• AA: Young, Hassell, Wood, with Harris and Casey as backups.

Wood and Hassell are basically our two top prospects right now, but both are struggling in AA. Young got promoted up this year and is hitting .300 in AA so far but has no power. Casey was demoted down to AA and is a backup, and seems like he’s not long for the organization. Harris seems like an undersized backup.

• High-A: Lile, De La Rosa, McKenzie with Shumpert, Antuna, Wilson as backups.

Antuna is hitting .176 and seems to finally have been taken out of a starting spot; this latest draft class should finally result in his release. Shumpert is a converted SS. Lile just got promoted up to High-A, otherwise nobody here is hitting well. Wilson is 27 and was demoted from AAA for some reason. Its hard to see any of these guys pushing for a promotion the rest of the way.

• Low-A: Emiliani, Green, De La Cruz, with Quintana, Thomas as backups

Emiliani was a 1B but apparently can lumber around LF now, and just got demoted back to Low-A. Quintana may be permanently moved to 1B and may not count here. Green, for all his prospect starlight, is not hitting well at all. De La Cruz is struggling. So is Thomas. Seems like these guys will be repeating Low-A unless they blow up the rest of the way.

• FCL: Ochoa Leyva, Vaquero, Cox with Baca and a slew of guys hitting under .200

Vaquero is the big-name here and he’s hitting .300 as an 18yr old so far in Rookie. Ochoa Leyva holding his own. Cox is not and is looking like a huge 4th round bust so far.

• DSL: Tejada, Acevedo, Batista with Soto and three other 2023 IFAs as backups.

Batista hitting .303, the rest of them hitting like .150. I can’t see any of them getting promoted.

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Here’s what we could be looking at as your starting OFs 2024. Maybe it’s not quite as hard as I thought.

• AAA: Hassell, Wood, Rutherford, with MLFAs (Hill, Blankenhorn, Reyes released or resigned)
• AA: Young, Harris, McKenzie, Lile (Casey relesaed)
• High-A: Crews, Pinckney, Green, De la Rosa, Shumpert (Wilson, Antuna released)
• Low-A: Vaquero, De La Cruz, Nunez, Ochoa Leyva (Thomas, Emiliani released)
• FCL: Cox, Baca, Batista, Marte, Peoples (Contreras, Ramirez released)
• DSL: Current crew plus 2024 signees forcing 2023 underperformer relases

This would mean:

• Aggressively promote Wood in particular to AAA and hope that Hassell continues to develop. Rutherford back in AAA assuming we layer him in the MLB level, otherwise looking at more veteran MLFAs for AAA.
• Definitely aggressive with promotions of McKenzie and Lile to AA, based on their already being promoted this season. Harris and Young treading water.
• This would put new draftees Crews and Pinckney at High-A to start 2024. I do not buy that Crews will do the AFL->AA Strasburg path. Maybe he will and you’re seeing Lile or McKenzie back in High A instead.
• High-A also has too many players … that’s the squeeze. So maybe that does support Crews in AA. this plan has Green promoted (even though he’s not meriting right now) but DLR staying put.
• Nunez at Low-A. Seems right. He is joined by two guys moving up from rookie ball. But not Cox, who may be a blown 4th rounder.
• Everyone else in Rookie ball/DSL staying put, or perhaps 1-2 DSL guys moving inland.

So, maybe the crunch isn’t as bad as we thought. Eventually though if these guys all matriculate as expected, we’re going to have some logjams in the MLB outfield, and likely some trades to acquire assets.

MLB released the rosters for its 2025 Futures Game, kind of a minor league all star exhibition/showcase that’s played the day before the All Star game that has been gaining traction and attention.

The Nats just sent two of our best prospects to the 2023 Futures game, a game supposedly meant to highlight prospects but ridiculously cut short to 7innings (so basically there’s no continuity of play) and streamed on a minor platform (Peacock) that few people pay for. We can tell you that our own James Wood went 0-1 with a BB while Brady House got one of just five hits on the night for the NL team based on the box score. Both those players are now on the MLB roster, and Wood is highly likely to be appearing in the actual All Star game this weekend.

In 2024, we sent our absolute best prospect in Dylan Crews, who started in the game and went 0-3 with a HBP and a SB.

This year, we’re again naming our absolute top prospect in Travis Sykora (though he had to withdraw with injury, being replaced by another top 10 prospect in Clemmey), and also sending recently promoted AAA reliever Grissom, who is barely on the top 30 prospect list. Why Grissom? Well because his dad is managing one of the teams of course. Here’s Keith Law’s preview of the event.

But lets take a step back, call out the Futures game participants for the Washington Franchise over the years, opine whether we actually sent our best prospect(s) at the time, and see if its an indicator of future success. (Note: the links in the years go to the rosters or summaries of the games).

• 2025: Travis Sykora, Marquis Grissom, Jr., Alex Clemmey. Sykora our #1 at the moment with Susana hurt, then subsequently got hurt so Clemmey went in his place. Grissom included for familial reasons; his dad is coaching the AL futures team. So, with Sykora and Clemmey being sent while Crews, House, Lile in the majors, the Nats once again send their best. Career Outcomes: check back in a few years.
• 2024: Dylan Crews, our clear-cut #1 and #2 in all of baseball, so we sent our best. Career Outcome: Crews now promoted and our starting RF when not hurt.
• 2023: James Wood, Brady House. These were inarguably the top 2 ranked prospects in the system as of mid 2023, unless you had a thing for Hassell. Career outcomes: premature of course, but right now Wood looking like a star, House just called up
• 2022: Cade Cavalli, Darren Baker. Cavalli was still #1 or #2 on most lists, joined by the likes of House, Henry, and Vaquero. Cavalli was a much higher visibility in 2022, while Baker’s inclusion was probably positional scarcity filling last year, and is really a fringe prospect.
• 2021: Cade Cavalli was either our #1 or #2 prospect to Jackson Rutledge as of the 2021 futures game, so we sent our best.
• 2020: No game: Covid
• 2019: Carter Kieboom. He became our #1 prospect upon Robles promotion in June 2019. Career outcome: Man, what the heck happened to this guy. Forgot how to hit, forgot how to field, then had TJ, had a flexor Mass elbow issue, to outrighted and released.
• 2018: Carter Kieboom, Luis Garcia. Victor Robles was set to go but got hurt, and Juan Soto was set to go but got promoted, and at this moment they were our #1 and #2 prospects. Kieboom and Garcia were not far behind though. Career outcomes: Garcia was thought to be a bust for years, but now produces as our starting 2B.
• 2017: Victor Robles; with the departure of Giolito and the graduation of Turner, Robles became our clear #1 prospect.
• 2016: Reynaldo Lopez: At the time of the game, Giolito and Turner were still 1-2 for us, but they went last year so we sent our #3 or #4 prospect in Lopez. Career Outcome: Lopez struggled for us, then we flipped him to CWS in the Adam Eaton trade and he pitched effectively in their bullpen as an 8th inning guy with decent numbers for a while.
• 2015: Lucas Giolito, Trea Turner. Giolito was our top prospect for several years before getting traded. Giolito famously shipped to CWS when the Nats apparently couldn’t fix his mechanics (CWS could). Turner obviously starred for us for years.
• 2014: Lucas Giolito, Michael Taylor. Giolito was our top prospect for several years before getting traded. Taylor was a mercurial player for us for years, now is succeeding for Minnesota.
• 2013: A.J. Cole, Taylor Jordan. Our top prospects at the time of the game were Lucas Giolito and Brian Goodwin: Giolito was still recovering from TJ so wasn’t a candidate to go (he went the next year). Cole could never figure it out for us, so we traded him for nothing to the Yankees. He eventually became a decent bullpen guy for a couple of years before getting hurt. Jordan got to the majors and showed a flash of promise later this summer in 2013, but couldn’t cut it as a MLB starter and faded away.
• 2012: Alex Meyer, Felipe Rivero. Anthony Rendon was our clear #1 at the time of the game and didn’t go; was he hurt? Could have been. Meyer was generally #2. Career outcomes: Meyer was yet another arm we couldn’t make work, so we turned him into Denard Span. To be fair, neither could Minnesota, who flipped him to the Angels, where he had a solid season in 2017, got hurt, and disappeared. Rivero? Flipped in the Mark Melancon deal to Pittsburgh, where he changed his name to Vazquez, then was a decent reliever until he got arrested for a litany of charges related to underage girls. I believe he’s still in prison as of this writing, but could be wrong.
• 2011: Bryce Harper, Brad Peacock: Harper was clearly our #1 prospect at the time. Career outcomes: Peacock got flipped in the Gio Gonzalez trade, made his way to Houston and pitched pretty well for them for years. Harper of course we know the story.
• . Peacock got flipped in the Gio Gonzalez trade, made his way to Houston and pitched pretty well for them for years. Harper of course we know the story.
• 2010: Danny Espinosa, Eury Perez. We graduated a ton of guys this year just prior to the game, so believe it or not you can make a credible argument that Espinosa was our #1 prospect at the time of the game. Career Outcome: Espinosa hit at the mendoza line for this team for years before getting flipped to the Angels in our down 2016 season. Perez was a 4-A guy, got DFA’d in late 2014 and was claimed; he had one decent season for Atlanta then disappeared.

So, historically the Nats have really done a nice job of sending our best prospects to this show case, which can’t necessarily be said for all the teams out there. And for the most part, we’ve seen decent career outcomes for those players who we sent.