Nationals Arm Race

What a deflating end to a great run of wins for the team. Photo credit unknown.

Jim Riggleman shocked the Natmosphere by abruptly resigning after today’s 1-0 win over Seattle (a win that gives the team 11 wins in their last 12 games and pushes them over .500 for the first time this late in the season since 2005).

I can’t blame him.  He’s more than proven his worth managing a team in the lower 1/3 of major league payroll, without its best pitcher all of 2011, missing Ryan Zimmerman for the bulk of the season and having to deal with the loss of his “other” major FA signing Adam LaRoche.  He’s worked a group of players that includes more than a few 2011 minor league free agents into the hottest team in baseball.  Mike Rizzo should have realized that picking up his option was the right thing to do.  The team let him toil as “interim manager” for months, even while vastly outperforming his predecessor (Manny Acta was 26-61 in 2009, then Riggleman went 33-42 with a group of players hampered by injuries late in the season).

Riggleman certainly has his detractors (small ball, quick hooks, sentimental pitching decisions all being mentioned) but I find it hard to believe there’s a manager out there who could have gotten more out of this group.

Flat out, the team should have picked up his 2012 option long before it came to this.

A disappointing piece of news.

Werth is catching a lot of criticism for his performance lately. photo: Mitchell Layton/Getty Images NA

WP columnist Tom Boswell conducted his weekly chat today 6/20/11, via the Washington Post chat pages.  Boswell heavily covered the US Open and took a number of questions on Rory McIlroy and the tournament, but he did field some Nats questions.

As always, the questions below are paraphrased from their original asking for space and levity.

Q: Is Jayson Werth already a bust?
A: I think there’s some impatient Nats fans out there.  Yeah he’s hitting .232/.332/.409, but his OPS+ is still above 100, so its not like he’s having an Adam Dunn-esque season.  I think he’s struggled with the absence of his lineup protection Ryan Zimmerman and has tried too hard to carry the team and earn his contract.  Happens all the time in the first year of a massive deal, or the first year with a new team and a new stadium and a new city.

Lots of pundits flat out panned the Werth contract.  Too much money, he’s too old, he’s not a superstar.  Well, its not like the Phillies didn’t want him back; he was a coveted free agent and we overpaid because we had to.  I still maintain that if Werth had signed 7rs/$126M with New York or Boston, nobody would have said a thing (indeed, Carl Crawford signed for MORE money and is hitting worse, yet you don’t see many articles slamming Boston for such a horrible contract).  I think a lot of the flak was just the Nats perception as being cheap, and breaking that perception.

(Boswell mentions the same two players I just did, and says that he believes Werth is just “playing tight” right now.  Fair enough).

Q: Did Riggleman leave Gorzelanny in to bat in the 4th inning on 6/19, in an attempt to avoid another Marquis-blowup by taking him out prior to 5 complete innings (so that he wouldn’t qualify for the win)?

A: Maybe.  Maybe not.  Gorzelanny was giving up a LOT of hits, he had given up runs in 3 straight innings and was probably heading for an early shower.  But the Nats got 2 runs back in the bottom of the 4th and Gorzelanny wasn’t near 100 pitches on the day.  Unfortunately he went out and gave up more runs in the 5th and had to get hooked.  Managers aren’t omniscient, and Riggleman had no idea he was going to get pounded for 3 more runs.  Keep in mind as well, this was Gorzelanny’s first game back, he didn’t really have a ton of rehab time (one AAA start) and was more or less rushed back into service because of how bad Maya performed.  (Boswell didn’t really answer the question, just saying that Riggleman has to manage a group of 25 guys, each with different incentives).

Q: How would you re-align baseball, if you were commissioner for a day?  Would you keep divisions?

A: Short answer: Move Houston to AL West to create a fantastic Dallas-Houston rivalry and to create 6 divisions of 5 teams each.  Standardize the DH across the board.  Have rotating divisional focus but stick to it (not like what they do now, where its random what teams play who).  Who cares if there’s inter-league play at the end of the season; make the matchups compelling and people will come to see the games.

Another move could be to add 2 more teams and have an NFL-style playoff structure.  8 divisions of 4 teams each, with 4 division winners and two wildcards in each league.  The two wild cards play the lesser two divisional winners, giving the two best divisional winners a weekend bye and some semblance of an advantage.  Assuming you add two teams to to the AL (in Portland and San Antonio, the two current largest markets without major league baseball teams), you could have divisions like this:

This plan would preserve most of the current rivalries in baseball while creating some new ones.  Tampa moves out of the AL east but goes against two like-minded franchises in terms of building on youth in Texas and Kansas City.  The AL South has a bit more travel, but Tampa’s strong TV ratings should be maintained with 8pm start times instead of 7pm during its many central time zone trips.  San Antonio builds an instant in-division rivalry with their Houston neighbors.  The AL Central keeps its four core teams while the AL west gets an instant Seattle-Portland rivalry while keeping all its games on Pacific time.

The NL East, Central and West all make plenty of sense.  The only fault of this plan is what to do with the collection of teams that end up in the NL “South.”  You could do something a bit more radical to the existing rivalries in this plan:

Here, the Pirates join the NL east to allow Florida and Atlanta to stay close together.  The central teams now cut down on travel a little bit (though Cincinnati is closer to Pittsburgh than most any other NL team, so splitting them up doesn’t make a ton of sense).

Just some random thoughts.  (Boswell, coincidentally, completely punted on the question, saying he had no idea but that any plan done just to make life easier for the AL east doormats Toronto and Baltimore needs to be rethought.)

Q: Do the Nats move Rendon to 1st base if he hits like everyone is talking?

A: It all depends.  If he hits his way into the majors next June, then we may have to get creative where to put him (left field?)  If it takes a few years and we’re looking at FA first basemen then sure, 1st base makes perfect sense.  If its 3 years from now, Desmond is still hitting .205 and Espinosa looks like a franchise player, move Espinosa to short and install Rendon at 2nd.  Lots of options.  Way too early to decide.  Hell, we haven’t even signed the guy yet!    Boswell insinuates that perhaps its Zimmerman who makes way.  Wow, hadn’t considered that possibility.  I have a hard time believing that we’re going to move the best defensive third baseman in the majors on account of a few throwing errors.

Q: Is Bernadina part of the Nats future?

A: I have a hard time believing so.  He’s a fringe-below average major league hitter.  He can play a good center, but we’re grooming Bryce Harper to play center (I would hope).  So Bernadina is left to compete for a left field spot with guys who can adequately man the position but hit 25 homers.  (Boswell completely ignored the Bernadina question).

Q: How does Morse’s prowness defensively at 1st compare to LaRoche and Dunn?

A: He’s clearly in between, though closer to LaRoche than most would say.   So far this year in about 2/3s the innings Morse has a 4.1 UZR/150 rating, which is pretty darn good for a first time full time first baseman.  LaRoche’s was higher (at 9), not surprisingly since he’s one of the best defensive first basement in the league.  Dunn?  He was a -4 uzr/150 in 2010 for the Nats and hasn’t played 1st enough to get a rating so far in 2011.  I always thought Dunn was more agile than people gave him credit for, but that he really struggled on grounders and throws from his middle infielders.  (Boswell more or less agrees).

Q: With Morse playing 1st so well and hitting even better, is he the future first baseman?  What do we do with LaRoche?

A: A very good question.  If LaRoche is healthy, I think he’s your first baseman.  He’s signed for 2012 with a decent 2013 option.  Meanwhile, Morse clearly needs to be in the lineup.  I think the answer may be to flip Nix for a prospect and put Morse back in left when the time comes.  Its nice to have positional flexibility with your hitters.  I think you wait til next spring training and see just how LaRoche is hitting post surgery before making this determination.  (Boswell rambled about how Morse may be hitting what we can expect from Harper).

Q: What are the odds of a Beltway World Series?  Which franchise makes the playoffs first?

A: Slim to none on the first question; I can’t see Baltimore beating out its AL east rivals until they get a new ownership group and embrace the approach the Tampa Bay Rays have taken.  So therefore the immediate answer to the 2nd question is the Nats.  I personally feel that we may reasonably expect a playoff run in 2013.  Philadelphia will be aging and saddled with several major contracts (they have $86M committed to just FOUR guys for 2013 right now, and those four guys will be 36, 33, 34 and 34.  ouch) and could be caught at the top of the division.  Atlanta will still be strong, but the Nats seem to be built to peak starting in 2013.  (Boswell says the Nats have a higher ceiling and then goes on a tangent about the fan base and attendance).

Q: Would the Nats be doing themselves a disservice by trading Marquis, Livan and Gorzelanny and replacing them with lesser AAA pitchers?  Why trade veterans if they’re winning?

A: (before starting, lets discuss.  Livan is an absolute steal at $1M/year and Gorzelanny is under arbitration control for 2 more seasons.  I seriously doubt either is traded).  So lets talk about Marquis.  Yes you should absolutely trade Marquis.  Several reasons:

• He’s in a contract year and is pitching better than he would be once he gets paid.
• He’s on the wrong side of 30 and has value now.
• Did everyone forget how bad he was in 2010?
• Any contract he signs will be difficult to reap the value of as it plays out.
• He’s not an Elias typeA or typeB pitcher, so if we lose him to free agency we’ll get zero compensation.
• We’re not winning the world series this year, therefore….
• All losing teams trade off veterans at the trade deadline for prospects.  And we should too.

(Boswell thinks the 7/31 trade market is softening and that the Nats won’t take any offers, and everyone stays.  I doubt that, based on what we were getting last year for the likes of Cristian Guzman).

Q: Are the Nats (especially Desmond and Werth) taking too many first pitch fastballs?

A: Hard to answer this without empirical evidence.  Boswell thinks the team should have altered its approach against a weak starting pitcher and not let him get into so many pitcher’s counts.  Fair enough.

Q: What’s the longest someone has employed this pitcher-batting-8th lineup?

A: It has to be the Cardinals, who ran it for nearly an entire season.  Who else uses it?  (Boswell went off on Werth’s splits since going to leadoff).

I forgot to publish my previous edition of this.  So its located below.  Meanwhile here’s the 6/20/11 edition.  I don’t think Bill’s done one of these since.  A lot of the statistics quoted were at the time of writing (6/20/11) and may be a bit dated by now.

Q: How do you think Jayson Werth has done this year, considering he hasn’t had Ryan Zimmerman, Adam LaRoche or a productive leadoff hitter in the lineup for most of the season so far?

A: He’s barely above 100 OPS+, after a number of seasons in the league top 10.  His slash line: .232/.332/.409.  I think he should be doing better no doubt and is finding out how tough it is to lead a team without much in the way of lineup protection.  (Ladson thinks he’s doing fine, when you take into account his leadership in the clubhouse).

Q: Should the Nationals trade a valuable reliever like Tyler Clippard to get a hitter that could improve the team’s offense?

A: The Nationals should make any trade, involving any player, if the return is deemed worth it.  Perhaps not Zimmerman, Strasburg or Harper, but anyone else is fair game.  That being said, I don’t think Clippard should be traded unless he fetches quite a haul, because of his importance to our bullpen.  So perhaps its a self fulfilling prophesy; we won’t trade him unless he gets valued like a front-end starter, but he’s merely an 8th inning reliever.  (Ladson more or less agrees with what i’ve written).

Q: Should Espinosa start hitting strictly right-handed?

A: Here’s his 2011 splits, and they’re pretty distinct.  He’s hitting .206 as a lefty, .315 as a righty.  But, look at his BABIP split.  .217 as a lefty and .352 as a righty.  So he’s been amazingly unlucky as a left-handed batter so far.  Despite what his splits look like, you don’t purposely get rid of a lefty-capable hitter.  He’s a rookie after all (lest we forget), and can improve his switch hitting abilities.  (Ladson agrees; let him continue to switch hit).

Q: Do you see the Nationals making many major moves at the Trade Deadline?

A: Realistically, I can see the team moving a couple of pieces (perhaps Marquis and Coffey).  I could also see them make a couple of waiver-wire trades very late in the season (Cora and Hairston).  I don’t see them acquiring any MLB players or moving any prospects.   If players like Ankiel or Gaudin were playing better, they’d be trade targets too.    (Ladson for some reason thinks the team will try to acquire a lead-off hitter and a starting pitcher, mentioning Gorzelanny as the one to be replaced.  Can’t see either move at this point in the season.  Getting a lead-off hitter will be an off-season task).

Q: Why would the Nats trade Jason Marquis? He solidifies the third spot in the rotation for 2012.

A: For all of these reasons:

• He’s in a contract year and is pitching better than he would be once he gets paid.
• He’s on the wrong side of 30 and has value now.
• Did everyone forget how bad he was in 2010?
• Any contract he signs will be difficult to reap the value of as it plays out.
• He’s not an Elias typeA or typeB pitcher, so if we lose him to free agency we’ll get zero compensation.
• We’re not winning the world series this year, therefore….
• All losing teams trade off veterans at the trade deadline for prospects.  And we should too.

2012’s rotation could very easily be the same as 2011’s, except you replace Marquis with Strasburg.

(Ladson thinks Marquis stays if we’re in the playoff race, and is dealt if we’re not.  Makes sense to me).

Q: Michael Morse has played well at first base. Is there any chance the Nationals will trade or release Adam LaRoche to make sure Morse stays at the position?

A: Release?  no way.  He’s owed a good chunk of change for 2012 ($8M plus another $1M buyout of his 2013 option).  Yes Morse has been good at 1st, but I think you move him back to left and look for Laroche back at 1st in 2012.  LaRoche is better in the field and was a pretty consistent 25hr, 100rbi guy before his injury.  Because of his injury, there’s practically no trade market for him now.  So we’re stuck with him for 2012.  (Ladson agrees with my sentiments on LaRoche).

Q: Do you think we might persuade Ivan Rodriguez to join the Giants to get some pitching in return?

A: It would make sense, but the Giants seem to be making do without Posey (they are in 1st place after all).  And they’ve made public statements saying they weren’t going to make a panic trade.  Pudge isn’t going to fetch all that much, perhaps a prospect in the low minors outside the top 20 BA rankings.  For that, its worth keeping him for 2011 and seeing if maybe even he sticks around in a backup role.  (Ladson agrees)

Q: Regarding Matt Stairs — aren’t Pudge, Laynce Nix and Marquis better designated-hitter options during Interleague Play?

A: Yes they are (well, except Marquis.  Come on; he’s a good hitting pitcher, not a good hitter).  And I continue to be amazed that Stairs is on this roster.  He is now 5/42 for the season with one extra base hit and is routinely getting fooled by mediocre middle-bullpen guys.  I believe he needs to be released/turned into a bench coach/something and have a more versatile guy brought up.  Looking at Syracuse hitters, Antonelli gives some middle infield flexiblity, Marrero is already on the 40-man and can be brought up without a corresponding move, and Aubrey has MLB experience and can play 1B.  Stairs is obviously a good guy but at the expense of a 25-man roster spot?  (Ladson says, yes those guys are probably better options).

This is a bit of an older Inbox edition (I was out of town when it dropped, and just saved the link), but I love answering questions that people don’t ask me about the Nats.  :-).  Reading from above, you’ll see some duplicated, repeated questions (especially about Pudge and Stairs).

Here’s Ladson’s 6/5/11 inbox and my answers to his questions.

Q: If the Nats were to trade Ivan Rodriguez, who do you think would be the new backup?
A: Ramos would start and I believe the team would call up Carlos Maldonado from Syracuse to be the once-a-week backup.  Maldonado has MLB experience and would know his role.  I would NOT call up Jesus Flores, who I would rather continue playing full time in AAA building up value.  (Ladson thinks it would be Flores, which I think would be a disservice to his career to have him come up and ride the bench in the Majors)

Q: What do you think the Nats will do if Matt Stairs continues his subpar hitting? Could they release him or just package him in a trade to get rid of him?
A: I *think* the Nats will just continue to let him eat a 25-man spot.  The argument is that there’s not really anyone in AAA who is earning a trip to the majors and Riggleman likes having Stairs around as a pseudo-bench coach.

I *wish* they’d just cut him and bring up someone like Chris Marrero, even if he’s not deserving, to get some more roster flexibility and to have someone who can actually play the field competently.  What Trade value does Stairs have right now?  Who wants to trade for a guy who is hitting (as of 6/13/11) 5 for 40 on the season?  His OPS+ is 16.  16?!

(Ladson asks who we’d replace him with, citing this as the reason he’s sticking around.  But he notes that Stairs could be in trouble once inter-league play is finished).

Q: Every time you answer a question about the Nats’ leadoff spot, you never mention the names of Stephen Lombardozzi or Eury Perez. Are these guys not as good as their numbers suggest, or are they that far away?
A: I think the answer needs some context.  Are we talking about leadoff for 2011 or lead-off for the future?

Lead-off in 2011 is a lost cause.  The team gambled that Nyjer Morgan would return to his 2009 numbers and chose to forget all the incidents that turned him into a character liability last season.  Suddenly we were faced with having no natural leadoff hitter in the last week of March.  Now we’re cobbling together the likes of Bernadina, Desmond, or Espinosa at the top of the lineup, none of which are good enough or suited enough for leadoff.

Longer term. Lombardozzi is an interesting possibility.  His career slash line in the minors is .297/.372/.412, and that’s been incredibly consistent throughout every level (he has almost identical numbers at every level).    He plays 2b, where suddenly we’re rather overloaded with the very good Danny Espinosa, the probable destination of 1st round draft pick Anthony Rendon, and 2009 2nd round draft pick Jeff Kobernus (though he’s struggling in Potomac as a 3rd year pro and may be a draft bust).  Perhaps the best case is moving Espinosa to SS, Lombardozzi to 2B, Rendon to 1st or left and either trading or making Desmond super-utility guy.

As for Eury Perez, he’s one of the few DSL grads hanging around in our minor league system right now.  He’s in Potomac right now but has seen a precipitous drop in his OBP at the high-A level.   As of 6/13 he has only THREE walks for the entire season (?).  Inarguably though he has speed (64 Sbs last year) and would be the perfect lead-off/center field type.  But…. isn’t Bryce Harper being groomed to play center?  Werth presumably occupies right field for the next 7 years, and Harper is athletic enough to play center (and would be a ton more valuable there).  If Perez is a plus-defender he’d be wasted in left.

My ideal 2013 lineup if everything goes well: Lombardozzi (2b), Espinosa (SS), Zimmerman (3b), Harper (cf), Werth (rf), Rendon (1b), Ramos (c), Desmond? (lf).  That’s some potential fire-power.

(Ladson succinctly agress with what i’ve said; prospects are far away, we have nobody right now, and Rizzo may make a move).

Q: When do you think we will see Ross Detwiler this season?
A: Excellent question.  Can the answer be “never?”  Detwiler has taken two massive steps backwards this year.  Instead of finally being healthy and ready to produce at the MLB level, he’s been the worst of 5 starters in Syracuse all season.  Yes, his last two starts have been quality starts, but before that he had a string of seven straight starts where he gave up 4 or more earned runs.  This for a first round draft pick who was supposed to be featuring in the majors.

I suspected he is or was hurt.  Because he was lights out in his first start of the AAA season.  Now I just don’t know whats going to happen.  Maya was the first call up to replace an injured starter, and will most likely return.  Perhaps Detwiler gets another shot if we trade Marquis or if we have another injury, but honestly Tom Milone has earned the call up far more than Detwiler. (Ladson agrees, but predicts a 9/1 callup if Detwiler improves.  duh).

Q: Nyjer Morgan was a fantastic leadoff hitter. Any chance they make a deal with Milwaukee and bring him back to D.C. where he belongs?
A: Another humorous question; this one made me laugh out loud it was so absurd.  Rizzo wanted to get rid of him so badly he took back a low-A minor leaguer with no future as trade collateral.  Morgan was a fantastic lead off hitter for the last half of 2009.  When he finally got a shot to be a full time player in 2010, he struggled badly.  His numbers are great in 2011 … but he’s a part time player.  We’re moving on.  (Ladson agrees, saying Morgan is better than what we have, but that he’s not that good a leadoff hitter).

Q: What do you think of Jim Riggleman as a manager?
A: Interesting question. I think Riggleman has done a decent job stabilizing the bullpen and getting guys to understand their roles. I think he is a bit old-fashioned in the way he manages from time to time, pulling starters a bit early to play the matchup game but also leaving guys in a batter too long. I think the fact that this team is near .500 given that they’ve gotten a grand total of 8 games out of their best hitter, their major FA acquisition is batting .236 and their first-baseman/clean up hitter is out for the season is relatively amazing.  He may be perfect for the up and coming rookie crop we expect, based on his experience and no-nonesense approach.  He doesn’t have a very good managerial track record though, so one mediocre season when the front office expects greatness and he’ll be out.  (Ladson thinks he’s an excellent manager and thinks he deserves to have his option picked up).

From Boswell’s live chat on Monday 6/13/11.  I’ll skip the non Nats questions.  As always, the questions below are mostly paraphrased from the submissions he chose.

Q: Should the Nats consider keeping Jason Marquis?
A: No way.  He’s in a contract year and is performing fantastically.  Guess what his previous best pitching year was?  That’d be his LAST contract year, in 2009.  He’s on the wrong side of 30, you’d be paying for 2011 without giving any context to what happened in 2010, you’d be blocking one of the gazillion young arms we have coming up, and you’d have to pay him much more than his current $7.5M/per contract.

You trade him at the deadline for prospects and bring up Detwiler, Meyers, or even Peacock to see what you have.  That’s what last place teams do with their soon-to-be-expiring veteran contracts.  (Boswell agrees, citing the Riggleman blowup as evidence that he’s out the door soon)

Q: Are the Nats a centerfielder and a competent starter away from being competitive?
A: Not quite.  I think we’re a center-fielder, a marquee first baseman, the return of Zimmerman, and TWO good starters on top of a healthy Strasburg and the continued development of Zimmermann away from being really competitive.  (Boswell says that we’d be “crazy not to be optimistic about the Nats” without any real analysis on this question).

Q: Is Jayson Werth the long term answer as the teams leadoff/center fielder?
A: I’m not sure if this question is a joke or not.  No, of course Werth isn’t a lead-off hitter, or a center fielder for that matter.  Riggleman was just mixing up the lineups and put Werth first.  He has far too much power to waste in a leadoff role.  He’s a RBI man, not a table-setter.  Long term this team puts Bryce Harper between Zimmerman and Werth’s right handed bats in the middle of the order and let the power game come to them.  Meanwhile if someone Desmond doesn’t pan out as a leadoff/middle infielder type you find one who can.  Harper should be groomed to play center so enable someone else to lead off.  (Boswell agrees: Werth can fill in at center, but he’s not the long term answer.  And, he’s certainly not a leadoff hitter).

Q: Would a rotation of Strasburg, Zimmermann, Lannan, Marquis and Gorzelanny be a playoff rotation?

A: Wishful thinking, I suspect.  The last few world series winners have shown you need multiple Aces and otherwise good starting pitching to have a shot.  Strasburg is a legitimate “Ace,” easily one of the best 20 pitchers in the game when he is healthy.  But … he’s only been healthy for a few weeks thus far.  We’re a long ways towards counting on him being Roy Halladay-dominant every 5 days.  Zimmermann is looking good … but he’s still up and down.  Lannan, Marquis and Gorzelanny are all 5th starters on most other squads (as is Livan for that matter).  To be successful you need two #1s, a #2 and no worse than a #3 type guy to go with your proverbial 5th starter.

Look at (say) Atlanta’s rotation right now: Lowe, Jurrjens, Hansen, Hudson, Beachy.   Jurrgens is pitching at an all-star level, Hansen is pitching even better.  The worst guy this year is Hudson, who is a work-horse and would be the National’s ace.  Plus they have two major prospects waiting in the wings in Minor and Tehran.  5 of these 7 named pitchers are 25 years of age or younger; the Braves are set for a long time.  This is what the Nationals need to emulate.

Boswell didn’t really answer the question, just talked about the pipeline of players.  I like the pipeline too, trust me, but prospects aren’t quite the same as demonstrated production on the MLB field.  That’s what we need.

Q: Should our broadcasters reference our Montreal past more frequently?

A: Eh.  I hear this complaint a bunch from other bloggers, about the fact that the current regime pays little attention to its Montreal roots.  Personally I don’t think its that big a deal.  There were two iterations of Washington teams prior to the Nats and that’s the natural historical teams to reference.  I’m sure the Texas Rangers don’t really note that they were the Washington Senators and that their previous slime-ball owners basically stole the team away from Washington in the middle of the night.  (Boswell told a story about writing about bike races).

Q: Does Jayson Werth seem like he’s stressed?

A: Probably so.  First year in a massive contract with all the ink spilled about it over the off-season, then your primary lineup protection goes down 8 games into the season.  I’d be stressed too.  The dude is intense, and playing with intensity on a losing team has to be a massive drag.  (Boswell’s answer is borderline mean when discussing Werth’s production this season.  He’s way way down on projections for rbis, extra base hits, etc).

Q: Did the selection of Anthony Rendon (and the lack of announcing his position) mean to send a message to Ryan Zimmerman about his future contract talks?

A: No, and that’s a ridiculous assertion.  There is zero chance the Nats were thinking anything except “oh my gosh I can’t believe Rendon fell to us” when they took him.  To think that the team was somehow projecting 4 years into the future in the 5 minutes they had to do draft pick analysis is crazy.

Rendon’s current position is irrelevant.  If he hits in the low minors, he’ll be promoted to the high minors.  If he continues to hit in the high minors, the team will find a place for him.  A good 3rd baseman can easily transition to 2nd, 1st, or left field.  Hell, maybe they’ll make him a catcher.

(Ironically, Boswell used almost the same language I just used.  You’ll note that I don’t actually read his answers until AFTER I type up how i’d respond).

Q: Is the Marquis situation shaping up as Adam Dunn v2.0?

A: Not at all.  Adam Dunn was a type-A free agent.  Marquis is not even close to being a type-B.  We could afford to hang onto Dunn and wait out trade offers b/c we knew he’d be worth two high draft picks.  And sure enough, his two picks turned into Alex Meyers and Brian Goodwin. Marquis’ value is never going to be as high as it will be after his current stint of decent starting pitching and we should have flipped him yesterday to a team like the Yankees.  (I’m not sure Boswell answered the question… he just mentioned that the Nats have money to spend.  Whether they spend it wisely or not remains to be seen).

Q: Can the Nats beat the large-spending teams by just growing up with players such as Espinosa, Desmond, and the like?

A: Yes (see Tampa Bay Rays) but its a lot easier to grow most of your team and augment with good FAs.  I think that’s the model this team is following right now (see the attempts to sign Zack Greinke in the off season).  The problem with the grow-the-team approach is that it takes a long time.  And this team already completely blew its first 4 seasons in Washington with incompetence in the front office and in the ownership team.  Now they’re playing catch up.  See me in 2013; if we’re not in the playoff hunt in 2013, we’ll re-boot and get a new GM and basically start over again.

Q: Which of our top 4 picks will sign?

A: Great question.  I’m predicting that Rendon, Meyer and Goodwin all sign.  Goodwin will be a tricky one but he can’t possibly want to return to school after his academic issues.  The tough sign is Purke.  If Purke plays in the Cape and doesn’t show any velocity, the Nats can’t possibly offer him 1st round money, and he’ll really have no choice but to go back to school.  That’s the right thing to do professionally.  The best bet for the Nats is for Purke to show he still has mid 90s heat and we sign him to 1st round money and get possibly the steak of last 5 drafts.  (Boswell agrees).

Q: Is Jordan Zimmermann turning into our staff 1-A to Strasburg’s #1?

A: Its a little premature to annoint him to be that good of a pitcher.  He does have 8 straight quality starts and three straight fantastic starts though.   To be 1-A you have to show this kind of production all season, season-after-season.  Not for a 6 week period.  (Boswell says, “sure looks like it” and quotes stats from these last 8 starts.)

Q: Since the Nats have played so many road games thus far, can we expect a better record here on in?

A: Marginally.  Home field is worth something like 53% historically.  Perhaps some cause for optimism lays in the fact that our rotation has performed better than expected and is only getting better, and that our lineup as it stands now is far stronger than what we fielded from day one.  Ramos over Pudge (100 to 63 ops+), Morse over Laroche (136 to 53 ops+), Nix over Bernadina (139 to 75 ops+) are good starts, but getting Zimmerman back (184 vs 76 ops+ for Hairston) will be a huge help as well.   So with a better hitting team, continued good starting pitching and improving defense … maybe this team can claw its way back to .500.  (Boswell didn’t really answer the question, just talked about the bad timing of the US open and the Baltimore-Washington series being on the same weekend).

Q: Is Bryce Harper to Larry Walker a good comparison?

A: I would say, I would expect more out of Harper frankly.  Walker was a very good hitter (3 batting titles, an MVP) but questions persist about how much of his offense was due to Coors field and the launching pad he played in.  I look more for a Ken Griffey Jr. arc of performance out of Harper.  (Boswell says that David Justice is a good goal.  I think he’s shooting low).

Q: Is John Lannan part of the future of this team?

A: Great question.  Unfortunately, I think the eventual answer is going to be No.  Lannan is a good #4 or #5 starter in a good rotation.  He’s a change of pace starter on a team of hard throwers and could slot in nicely and give a playoff team 30 starts a year.  In 3 years, if we have Strasburg, Zimmermann, Solis, Cole, Ray, Meyer, Meyers and Peacock all making statements to be in the MLB rotation, there’s just no room for guys like Lannan, Gorzelanny, Maya, or Detwiler.  Its a cruel fact, but the team will be better for it.  (Boswell kind of agrees with me on the 4-5th starter bit, quotes a lot of advanced stats on Lannan, then says we should sign  him to an extension.  I disagree; I think we trade him when our kids start coming up).

Q: Are Nationals fans over-reacting when calling for the Manager’s or GM’s head right now?

A: clearly, yes.  Riggleman has gone above and beyond with the injuries and talent of this team.  Rizzo’s goal is to rebuild on a budget.  Both guys are doing as best as they can right now.  (Boswell didn’t really answer the question..)

Q: Should the Nats trade Clippard (whose name has been in the trade rumors lately?)

A: Hell no.  He’s a vital part of the bullpen, the best guy out there, and is under arbitration control for FOUR more years.  You don’t think about trading him; you sign him to an extension to lock him up.  Well, maybe not an extension, but you certainly keep him around.  (Boswell agrees).

Phew.  Almost 2000 words.  And I only wrote a third of what Boswell wrote.

Mike Rizzo takes some incorrect criticism from Boswell today. Photo: centerfieldgate.com

Tom Boswell printed a column today (6/2) in the post (and online here).  It included some severe criticism of the general manager Mike Rizzo, including this quote:

Instead of scouting for players who might help in 2015, he should have been back home hosing down the Nats’ roof as the wildfires approached.

I may agree (somewhat) with his sentiments about the lack of leadership on the team right now, but I categorically disagree with this statement.  The Nats are NOT going to win the world series in 2011, and a few games lost in May fielding a lineup of predominantly players who aren’t even going to be with this team in 2013 is not going to mean squat to the development of this franchise overall.

The BEST place Rizzo needs to be is preparing for a draft where the Nats have 3 of the first 34 picks in a very talented draft, those three picks which could make a huge difference in the outlook of this team in 2013, let alone 2015.  And then he needs to prepare even better for the next few rounds, which can make or break a draft.  First rounders are high-money, high-visibility but its those 2nd-5th rounders (like, for example, Derek Norris, Jordan Zimmermann, or Danny Espinosa in our own system) that can turn your team around.

Sorry Boswell, I really disagreed with this column’s premise.

Stairs' performance lately led to Boswell answering the same question about him, twice. Photo: Carlson/AP via nydailynews.com

Boswell’s 5/31 chat; my answers to his questions.  I skipped the non-Nats questions, figuring that anyone could argue about Pujols, the Mets and what not.  I’ve paraphrased/shortened most of the rambling “questions” into single sentences, and have split “questions” that asked for multiple answers.

Q: (paraphrased): Should the Nats Release Stairs?  (This question was asked twice, at the beginning and later on).
A: Yes, they really should.  I continue to fail to see the utility of having Matt Stairs around.  I’ve talked at length about this point at various times in the past on this blog.  (Boswell agrees … says that he “looks awful,” but later on asks why we’re fixated on Stairs and that there’s bigger problems.  True, but right now i’d rather see Marrero batting .100 instead of Stairs.).

Q:(paraphrased): Should the Nats send Desmond to AAA to work on his hitting?
A: No, if only because there’s not really anyone decent to replace him.  What is the value of sitting or demoting Ian Desmond so that we can give a ton of at bats to Alex Cora or Brian Bixler?  Zero.  Unless we had a promising SS prospect in the minors worth seeing, there’d be no reason to sit Desmond right now.  (Boswell agrees, saying that Desmond has had “a million bush league at-bats”).

The only possible scenario that may eventually make sense; move Espinosa to short, demote/sit Desmond and bring up someone like Lombardozzi, Kobernus or Hague to play 2nd.  Except, Lombardozzi is not nearly ready for this move and isn’t on the 40-man, Kobernus is really struggling and looks like a draft bust, and Hague is halfway into his first pro season.  To say nothing of the fact that any move to bring Espinosa to a new position would be done in the spring, not in June.  (Ironically, Boswell mentioned this scenario .. but in his answer to the NEXT question).

Q: (paraphrased): Should Rizzo focus on hitting in the 2011 draft?
A: Yes … but the major league draft is always about getting the “best player available.”  Unlike a sport like basketball (where the existence of a small forward on a roster prevents a team like Portland from drafting Michael Jordan since you draft for need in the NBA), you cannot project what can happen to a major league roster over the course of the 4-5 years it takes to develop players.  Just because we have Ryan Zimmerman now, does not mean we should ignore drafting and developing 3rd basemen for the next 5 years.  If for no other reason than a good defensive 3rd baseman easily makes a switch to another position (2nd or 1st or even left field) if his bat turns out to be too valuable to keep out of the majors.

Now, that being said, the 2011 draft is college pitcher heavy.  So the first pick is almost guaranteed to be a college arm.  You take what comes to you, in many ways.  At #23, if a great college arm has dropped, you take him there as well.  (Future blog note; stay tuned for a review of the Nats choices and likely picks at #6).

Personally, I think the modern baseball team construction is about developing pitching first, and then buying hitting on the open market if you need to.  So, even given that we’re relatively thin on hitters at the lower levels, I don’t have a problem getting more and better arms if that’s what pops up on the radar.

(Boswell agrees, says, “go pitching,” noting that the Nats limiting factor is developing 1-2-3 starters).

Q: (paraphrased): What value does BABIP give?
A: For context, Boswell’s latest column was about Espinosa and the fact that he has a ridiculously low BABIP right now.

As Boswell notes, BABIP gives a context of just how lucky or unlucky a hitter (or pitcher for that matter) has been.  A pitcher with a low BABIP (like Tom Gorzelanny for us right now at .239) is eventually going to return to the mean.  A pitcher with a high BABIP is most likely unlucky and probably will experience a natural lowering of his ERA over time.

One factor to remember; a high-bunter will maintain an above average BABIP (like our favorite ex-leadoff hitter Nyger Morgan).  And, a skilled directional hitter (such as Rod Carew as mentioned by Boswell, but also someone like Wade Boggs) can maintain a higher-than league average BABIP just based on skill.  Ty Cobb, generally considered one of the best bunters of all time in addition to being one of the most prolific and skill ful hitters, maintained a .378 career BABIP.  That’s pretty amazing.

(Boswell more or less agreed with what I wrote).

Q: (paraphrased) Do we think that Riggleman’s style of managing has cost the team lately?
A: The team is awful in one-run games right now, and Boswell included a slight “dig” at Riggleman, quoting Earl Weaver‘s “play for one run early, lose by one run late” idiom and calling Riggleman a “small ball” manager.  Coincidentally, this column rankled Riggleman, who responded the next day with a blunt rebuttal.

To a certain degree I agree with the anti-small ball, anti-giving up outs sentiment; i’m not sure I like bunting guys over in the first or 2nd innings, assuming you’re not going to get to a starter.  Look at the 5/31 game; the Nats and their 2nd worst offense in the league hit THREE homers off of Halladay.  Who would have thought that?

That being said, I find it really tough to blame Riggleman for this team’s performance, at all.  Zimmerman out, LaRoche batting .187, Ankiel not much better.  These were the guts of this team’s proposed lineup and they’ve been missing or horrible all season.  The pitching staff management has been good for the most part.  We’re 2 games below our pythagorean W/L record but that’s probably mostly due to the outlier 17-5 game in Baltimore.

Riggleman isn’t the reason this team is 22-31; injuries are.  Blame the injuries, not the manager.  Well, injuries and an artificially low payroll for this market (but that’s another topic).

(Boswell doesn’t like Riggleman’s small-ball mentality and thinks he overmanages, as far as I can tell).

Q: Based on Zimmerman’s injury and LaRoche’s lack of productivity, does this team still have a shot to reach 75 wins?
A: They’re 22-31 now, on pace for 67 wins and a worse record than last year.  To finish with 75 wins they have to go 53-56 the rest of the way out.

Sorry, they’re not going to be a .500 team from here on out.  The bullpen is showing signs of wear, the starters are slowly declining to the point where all 5 are below a 100 era+, and there’s really nobody to bring up from AAA to stem the flow (as we saw on sunday with Maya’s mauling).

Getting back to last year’s 69 wins is a new team goal, frankly.

(Boswell somehow thinks the team still has a shot to reach 75 wins …. ).

Q: (paraphased) Are the Nats losing due to lack of talent, lack of fundamentals, or lack of accountability?
A: I’d say its lack of offensive talent.  Fundamentally you do see things here or there (bad decisions by fielders or baserunning errors) but the errors are way down lately.  Accountability?  Yes there was the Werth blowup recently, and perhaps he was pissed at some rookie behaviors.  We’ll never know; he clammed up and stopped talking to the press about it.

(Boswell lays the blame on Rizzo, interestingly.  Not sure I agree; how is a lack of production on the field the fault of Kasten’s departure from the club?  I do agree with Boswell in saying that this non-story will pass once the team has a winning streak).

Q: (paraphrased) Do the owners care that Nats-Phillies games in Washington become essentially Philly home games?
A: Personally, I don’t think the Lerners care.  They see a big gate, lots of revenue, lots of beers sold and lots of hot dogs consumed.  If they could schedule 81 home games against the phillies and make an extra $50M in gate, they’d be completely happy.

And that is kinda sad.  Its clear they’re running the franchise as a business and have profit targets in mind.  That sucks for fans b/c it means we’ll never really get a free-spending, open the checkbooks and go for it kind of owner.  Personally I hope some sort of payroll modifications are put into the next CBA, if only to prevent potential abuses of revenue sharing from profit-minded owners (see Lerner, Jeffrey or Nutting, Robert).

(Boswell didn’t directly address any opinion of the Lerners … just alluded to how he thinks he was a bad ass when he was in his teens).

Q: (paraphrased): How does the Nats farm system rank right now for positional players?
A: Most pundits don’t rank positional versus pitchers when looking at farm systems, but generally speaking the major analysts have the Nats farm system in the middle of the pack (12th-13th) right now.  It is slightly top heavy b/c of Harper.

A quick look at the system seems to show some good starters (Cole, Ray, Solis) and good hitters (Kelso, Harper) in low-A, scattered bright spots in high-A (Hague, Hood), a couple of bright spots in AA (Peacock, Lombardozzi, Norris) and a couple of very interesting arms in AAA (Meyer, Milone).  But that’s not enough depth, at all.

(Boswell thinks the system is weak).

Q: What is the future plans of these players: Moore, Norris, Lombardozzi, Detwiler and Balester?
A: Moore was old for Potomac last year but is doing well enough in AA.  Even if he doesn’t hit 30 homers he’s still an interesting prospect for now.  Norris is absolutely a future MLB catcher; he’s struggled post wrist surgery.  Lombardozzi could be at the least a good MLB utility infielder and i’m hoping he moves up and replaces the likes of Cora/Bixler/Hairston on the mlb roster.  Detwiler i’m concerned about; he’s not pitching well at all right now in AAA and I think he’s hurt.  Balester did well in a relief mode late last season and should be on the MLB roster if not for option statuses of several guys in that pen.  Longer term he has a live arm and should stick as a righty option for the extended future.

(Boswell doesn’t think as much of Balester as I do, but likes Norris and Lombardozzi).

Q: Are the veterans jumping ship on Riggleman (based on Werth comments and Marquis blow-up)?
A: I don’t think so … its way too early.  Its 50 games into a 7 year career for Werth.  He’s competitive, serious  and doesn’t like to lose.  The team has lost a bunch of games lately.  I think that’s all the Werth comments were about.

Marquis’ irritation in having an easy win taken away from him was understandable; he’s in a contract year, he’s taken plenty of losses in games where he’s pitched well enough to earn the win, and he felt like he should have been given that “free” win as a result.  I would have been pissed as well.

This whole team is veterans who should know their roles.  Cora, Hairston, Ankiel, Nix … every acquisition in the offseason was a vet.

(Boswell inexplicably reminds us that Riggleman and Boras are best buddies … in the context of what?  Because Werth is represented by Boras, somehow Werth will cut Riggleman a break?)

Q; (paraphrased) Was Alex Cora’s base-running really a gaffe?
A: Yes, absolutely.  He said he was running on contact, which is a mistake.  He HAS to make sure that ball clears the pitcher and watch the pitcher begin to make a 1-6-3 double play attempt.  (Boswell thinks Cora was right, which I disagree with, but also says it was a bad break, which is true).

Q: Is the Nats record in one-run games all Riggleman’s fault?
A: I’m sure he has something to do with it, but i don’t think you can put it all at his feet.  Boswell points out that Riggleman’s record versus the pythagorean is a massive outlier in comparison to top managers in the game  historically, and lists his “sentimental” managing as a result.  Hard to argue against that.  But its also much harder to win one-run games when you have an offense that barely scores 3.5 runs a game while your pitching staff usually gives up 4.

Q: (paraphrased): Is Davey Johnson waiting in the wings for Riggleman’s job?
A: Maybe.  who knows.  Put a better product on the field before killing the manager.  (Boswell says the team needs to spend more money in its manager budget).

That was fun!  He took a gazillion questions.

Do you really think Albert Pujols will leave St. Louis? Photo unknown source via fantasyknuckleheads.com

Here’s the latest in a recurring theme.  Bill Ladson posted his own answers to the following reader questions.

Q: What’s the long-term plan for the leadoff spot?
A: I think the team had hoped that Corey Brown (obtained in the Josh Willingham deal) would be further along in his AAA development than he has shown thus far.  As of today he’s hitting .202/.322/.323 and only has two stolen bases on the season.  That’s really not going to cut it.

I thought center field/lead-off hitter was a major area of concern going into the off-season, and thought (rightly) that Nyger Morgan‘s tenure was close to being done with the team after his erratic behavior and precipitous offensive decline last season.  But, center field is a really tough position to find and fill (see this older post that looked at the makeup of each of the 30 CF starters at the time … there’s not a ton of major names on that list), and the team entered spring training with Morgan penciled in as the starter.

Short Term (as in the next two years): I think we’ll continue to use Roger Bernadina in the role, unless Brown somehow remember how to hit.  2012 we’ll see more of the same.  Unless we can work a trade for someone that makes sense (see the BJ Upton question below).

Long Term (2013 and beyond): we’ll hope that one of our middle infield hitters owns the role.  I’d love to see Danny Espinosa or Ian Desmond blossom in that spot, but they both are struggling this year and both strike out, a lot.

(Ladson honestly didn’t have an answer … citing the lack of anyone in the minors to provide help.  Yeah, that’s true too).

Q: (paraphrased) Is the team going to trade Pudge Rodriguez?

A: I don’t believe they will.  I think its bad to assume that you can just magically trade a veteran.  Remember, Pudge is hitting .202 on the season right now with very little pop.  He looks every one of his 39 years.  Yes he’s still a great defensive catcher and he still has a great arm, but who would want him?  We keep hearing rumors (Boston, now San Francisco with Buster Posey‘s injury), but I think any trade we’d make would have to include nearly all his remaining salary, and we’d be looking at a low-level prospect in return.  For that kind of payment, why not just keep him through the rest of his contract so that Flores can stay in AAA and play every day.  (Ladson thinks that Pudge will be dealt, but he thinks the team is trading most every veteran no matter how poorly they’re hitting).

Q: (paraphrased) Is Wilson Ramos the everyday catcher?

A: Not yet, but he should be.  So far this year he’s gotten 127 plate appearances to Pudge’s 79, giving him about 60% of the at bats.  In a normal catcher platoon you’d have the backup going once-a-week or so (by way of comparison, Atlanta’s Brian McCann has 82% of his team’s catcher at-bats right now, and Matt Weiters has about 77%).  Part of that is out of respect to Pudge as the future hall of famer, and part of that is natural breaking in of a rookie.  But on a team that didn’t have Pudge as the backup, Ramos would be in the 80% range of playing for sure.  (Ladson says he’ll be the full time catcher in the 2nd half for sure).
Q: (paraphrased) Is the team really interested in BJ Upton?

A: I would be, if I was Rizzo.  He’s the exact prototypical leadoff/center fielder that this team desperately needs right now.  He’s not the best hitter (career 103 ops+) but he gets on base a lot (.345 career obp) and steals a ton of bases and has a career 4.9 uzr/150 in center field.  He’ll be a FA after next season, so odds are the Rays aren’t going to trade him unless they get good prospects in return.  Perhaps we look at him as a FA signing for the 2013 season, with the idea of putting Harper in Left field.  (Ladson says we did scout him earlier, but it was just normal scouting.  He doesn’t think Upton is any better than what we currently have offensively, which I rather disagree with).

Q: How is Chien-Ming Wang’s rehab going? Can we expect him in the Majors soon?

A: Short answer: poorly and never.  We have heard very little about Wang other than reports at the end of spring training that he was still months away from pitching.  Personally, I took that as a very bad omen.  It seems to be the same place he was in at this time last year.  He’s made no rehabilitation progress in nearly two years despite several million dollars of salary expended.  Not only do I not think he’s going to be in the majors soon, I’ll be shocked if he even goes out on a rehab assignment.  Reason?  Rehab assignments have time limits, Wang has no options remaining, meaning he’d have to be cut loose if he wasn’t ready to join the majors.  Frankly, I think he’s done.  (Ladson states the obvious; Wang will not pitch in a major or minor league game in the first half of the season).

Q: Have you heard any updates as to whether first baseman Chris Marrero’s defense is improving?

A: Marrero has definitely cut down on his errors in AAA, and is hitting decently enough.  I was of the opinion that he should have been called up to replace LaRoche on the MLB roster, but the timing worked out to re-call Rick Ankiel from his rehab assignment (where he was busy striking out repeatedly in AA-games).  The team line was that Marrero needs to play a whole season in AAA for some reason.  I say, with LaRoche’s injury and Zimmerman’s extended absense, this season is nearly lost already and to give the kid some playing time.  (Ladson says his defense is vastly improved).

Q: Who do the Nats envision playing first base in the future — Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols, some lesser free agent, Marrero, a future draftee? What’s the long-term strategy there?

A: Pujols will never leave St. Louis.  Fielder probably signs with the Chicago Cubs, one of the only major-payroll teams that don’t have a first baseman locked up for $100M long term (Yankees = Teixeira, Red Sox = Gonzalez, Phillies = Howard, and the Mets & Dodgers are not going to be buying anyone until ownership situations are resolved).  Fielder to the Cubs makes perfect sense and they’ll pay him enough to make it worth his while.  Rizzo would never buy Fielder.  He’s not “defensive minded” and doesn’t fit the mold of what Rizzo wants to put on the field.  LaRoche was exactly what he wanted (well, except for the shredded shoulder that is).

Long Term strategy: i’ll bet they continue to sign one or two year contracts with decent hitters who happen to be good fielders (LaRoche, Derrick Lee, even Carlos Pena to a certain extent) until the team produces someone that fits the bill.

(Ladson thinks the team will trade for a 1B or sign another FA in the off season.  I seriously doubt that.  LaRoche is signed through 2012 and will be back.  It isn’t a career ending injury, just season-ending.  He’ll play in 2012).

Tom Boswell from the Washington Post (Photo via pbs.org)

I like Tom Boswell‘s WP chats.  They’re usually scheduled 11am mondays (they used to be on Wednesdays) and unlike many Washington area sportswriters takes a large amount of baseball related questions.  He usually writes long-winded interesting responses that usually include nuggets of information that you’ve never really heard elsewhere.  His latest chat featured a ton of interesting questions that I thought I’d take a stab at (my answers first, then an interpretation of Boswell’s.  In most cases i’ve paraphrased the question for levity).

Q: Is Riggleman’s job in danger?

A: In danger??  If anything, Riggleman should be asking for a pay raise.  His best player has played in 7 games, his two major FA acquisitions are hitting .172 and .247, and his GM handed him a bullpen that was 3/7ths unusable.  Yet the team is hovering around .500 and is a mediocre offense away from having a winning record. (Boswell Agrees).

Q: (paraphrased) Should the Nats keep Matt Stairs?

A: My answer is pretty clear: No, we should DFA him right now and bring up either Marrero or Aubrey from AAA to give the team a fighting chance at some more offense off the bench.   (Boswell thinks Stairs is sticking around because the AAA alternatives are mediocre and because Stairs is as good a defensive firstbase-man as Morse or Marrero.  I’m sorry, but I have a real hard time believing that.  Morse is a converted short-stop!  And Marrero is actually playing every day, as opposed to what Stairs has been doing for the past 3 years of his career (namely, sitting on his ass for 8 innings and then swinging out of it in the 9th a few times a week).

Q: (paraphrased): How much blame does Rizzo’s roster creation deserve for our last place team?

A: A fair question; one can certainly nit-pick the Willingham trade (as I have done in this space), complain about the bullpen construction (as I have also done in this space) and question the $126M Jayson Werth signing (along with every other MLB pundit on the internet).  But, you have to also acknowledge his moves that have paid off (Nix, Coffey, and Hairston signings, Gorzelanny trade in particular).  For me, I still think we sacrificed Willingham and his offense at the alter of increased defensive prowness in left field (where we now have the defensively challenged Nix patrolling) and we’re seeing it in the lineup.  You don’t just replace #5 hitters who consistently put up 130 OPS+ numbers.  (Boswell posted some unnerving slash lines for the road outputs of both Willingham and Werth that show they’re essentially equal hitters.  Great).

Q: (paraphrased) Did the Nationals play scheduling games with the quick-draw 5/17 phantom rainout?

A: Yes, they did.  Instead of barely getting above gate for a Tuesday afternoon game while the kids are in school, the team cancelled the game early and (most likely) schedules it as a day/night doubleheader on the first Saturday in July when the Pirates come back to town.  In addition, they got to skip a turn for Jordan Zimmermann, guaranteeing one more start later in the year.   Its too bad, since we were planning on attending, but a 1pm game on Saturday in July will be fun too.  (Boswell more or less agreed, also noting that our bullpen was fried and could use a day off).

Q: (paraphrased) Is MLB actively trying to weed out PED users?

A: No, nor can or will they ever.  Those older vets who were around during the Steroid hey-dey are for the most part nearing retirement or already admitted users … but there’s no retroactive penalties for someone like Alex Rodriguez.  All he has to look forward to is a series of $30M checks, increasing irrelevance as his skills erode, eventual daily front-page ostracism from the NY papers as he nears the end of his ridiculous contract, and then a 5-year debate over how many votes he’ll eventually get (but not be elected) in his first year of Hall of Fame eligibility.  (Boswell more or less agrees).

Now, do I believe that baseball has rid itself of PEDs now?  More or less I say yes.  Anyone caught now is simply labeled a moron, and the players now see the stigma attached to their accomplishments if they get caught.  I think this is directly related to the rather steep decline we’ve seen in offense over the past few seasons and marks a dawn of a new, interesting age in the game.

Q: Are there more injuries now than before in Baseball?

A: I don’t get a sense that more injuries are occurring this year versus years past.  The Nats havn’t lost a single start to injury (a vast change from 2010).   Of course, I have no research to back it up.  There’s a great injury database online that is worth investigating if you are so inclined.  (Boswell more or less agrees).

Q: (paraphrased) Is Adam LaRoche’s lack of production really because of his shoulder injury?

A: Yeah, I think it is.  A slight shoulder injury for a first-baseman isn’t too difficult to get around; its not like you’re making a dozen high-leverage throws across the diamond per week.  But a really bad shoulder injury will affect your swing.  I’m predicting a DL stint for LaRoche ((Update: sure enough he went on the DL 5/24) and just hoping that he doesn’t elect/be forced into Labrum surgery (which would blow the season for him and be a pretty significant blow to any chance this team had of realistically improving their record this year).  (Boswell thinks he’s going to “rest” for a bit and compares LaRoche to Jason Marquis last year).

Q: Were the Umpires “sending a message” with the odd Bernadina call on sunday?

A: I don’t think so.  But man the Nats have been on the receiving end of a lot of really bad calls lately.  Rizzo certainly let it be known that he thinks that’s the case.  Coincidentally, one of the major reasons pitchers need to be 100% stoic on the mound is near immediate and continual umpire retribution.  I watched Yunesky Maya openly gripe about ball/strike calls in a game last september and within a few pitches was called for a balk.  At the very least the umpire will eliminate the outside corners, which greatly reduces a pitcher’s effectiveness.  (Boswell thinks there may be some conspiracy theory involved).

Q: How long will it take the team to fill the gaping holes it has in its lineup?

A: Perhaps a couple years, and a lot of money.  Unlike pitching, teams can acquire hitting in free agency relatively quickly.  Thinking of where we need to be in 2013; we’re set on RF, CF (Harper), 3B, 2B and C.  We may need to look for help in LF, SS, and 1B.  Ironically, two of those positions are the two spots you can hide sluggers.  We may just live with Desmond hitting .220 at shortstop.  But there’s lots of slugger options that can fill those two spots.   A quick peek at the pre-2013 FA list shows some guys we could target.  How about BJ Upton or Curtis Granderson?  (Boswell thinks all 8 healthy starters this year are as good as last year’s team.  I disagree.  A ton of pop and power left in Dunn and Willingham).  I don’t think spending the farm on Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder is the answer either.

Q: Did Wilson Ramos make the wrong call on the 0-2 curve that cost the Nationals yesterday’s game?

A: Can’t say an 0-2 curve is the worst call out there.  Usually with free swingers on 0-2 you go with either a rising fastball at their eyes or a curve that starts over the plate and ends up so far outside they can’t hit it with a broom.  Zimmermann flat out missed with his curve; he said he was “trying to bounce it” and instead left it over the plate for a gopher ball.  Every pitcher makes mistakes; great hitters turn those mistakes into homers.  (Boswell agrees)

This was fun; i’m going to do this again next week!

Matt Stairs swings and misses at another fastball. Photo: Getty Images via zimbio.com

Lost in the shuffle of Friday’s offensive explosion in Baltimore was this line: Matt Stairs: 0-4, 2 strikeouts and 5 runners left on base hitting in the #5 hole.  The coup-de-grace for me was the inexplicable bases-loaded strikeout he had in the 4th, letting a perfect down-the-middle fastball pass right by him to end the inning.

That at-bat disgusted me.  It isn’t the first time we’ve seen Stairs let a pitch go by that he clearly was guessing otherwise on, and in the end of course the at bat didn’t matter, but its indicative of where he is now as a hitter.  On fastball counts, he’s guessing otherwise and letting pitches go by without even an offering in high-leverage situations.  But for me, if you have 2 strikes you’re not trying to hit home runs; you’re trying to put the ball in play.  It seems to me that his skills as a hitter have declined to the point where he’s depending more on guess work than his former hitting prowness to succeed at the plate.

Meanwhile, every other player in the lineup was mashing Baltimore pitching last night (well, except for Adam LaRoche, but that’s a different contract, a different defensive player, and a different story).  Our 7-8-9 hitters were 8-13 (eight hits out of the bottom three!).

I think its time to end the experiment.  For the season (as of 5/20) Stairs is 2 for 26 with no extra base hits.  He has a NEGATIVE OPS+, meaning that he’s hitting roughly 100% worse than an average major league player.  He has no defensive value and can’t pinch run when needed.  I think we need to bring up someone else from AAA.

Michael Aubrey didn’t have the worst numbers the last time he played in the majors (Baltimore in 2009), is also a lefty, can play first base if needed and (if you believe his profile’d height/weight of 6’0″ 190lbs) should be able to run the bases if needed.  We have a 40-man spot open with the DFA of Broderick and we could make this move immediately as a like-for-like replacement for Stairs.  If you didn’t want to add a guy to the roster, you could also just call up Chris Marrero, who doesn’t quite have Aubrey’s power but is hitting consistently in AAA and had 18 homers in AA last year.  Marrero could be a righty bat off the bench coupled with Ankiel’s lefty bat as a 4th outfielder/bat off the bench as well.

Either way, I think its time to make a change.

Bernadina's 5/13/11 catch has to be one of the plays of the season. Photo: Masn TV Screen shot via dc.sbnation.com

(I swear I had this post written over the weekend; i’m not copying my fellow bloggers’ ideas 🙂

The Nats have an OF problem coming.  Rick Ankiel (season slash line: .221/.302/.288 mostly out of the #2 hole) has been ably replaced in the lineup and in center field by Roger Bernadina, who is now trying to live up to the billing that the team had hoped for him all off-season (when most pundits and bloggers had annointed him the starting left fielder despite a relatively mediocre 2010 slash line of .246/.307/.384.  In his first 10 games and 38 at bats he had a .344/.447/.406 slash line hitting leadoff, to go with 4 SBs without being caught.  And he’s clearly playing lights out defense in center, with some highlight reel catches and adequate enough defense from an UZR/150 perspective.

Is Bernadina’s performance sustainable?  Probably not; his BABIP was an unnaturally high .407 (though frequent bunters will have an maintain higher BABIPs than the MLB average in the .290-.300 range).  An OBP of .450 was also not sustainable.  Sure enough, as of 5/19’s game he’s returned to a more typical .273/.360/.318 line (though I like the .360 obp from the leadoff spot).

So, if Bernadina is staying up and continuing to play, who makes way on the 25-man?  Ankiel’s return would give the team 5 outfielders on a team that can only really carry 4. Here’s some relevant contract and options details of our 5 OFers:

• Jayson Werth: Clearly he’s not going anywhere.
• Laynce Nix: He’s got 5 years of service time and would refuse an assignment to AAA, not to mention being exposed to waivers when we did so.  He’s our current clean up hitter and has wrested the starting job away from Morse.
• Michael Morse: No options left; if we ask him to go to Syracuse he has to clear waivers, and there’s teams out there sniffing around for right handed OF help (ahem, Philadelphia).
• Rick Ankiel: 5 years of service time, so he can refuse an assignment.  Plus we’re not paying him $1.5M to just let him go.
• Roger Bernadina: currently burning his 3rd and last option, but performing decently from the top of the order.

In other words, the only guy who we CAN option to the minors is Bernadina.  But can the team purposely send down a guy who has been giving them their best leadoff production all season?  I don’t think they can.

How about the rest of the bench right now?  Assuming for the time being that Hairston is the starting 3rd baseman and Ramos is the starting catcher, here’s our current bench:

• Ivan Rodriguez: Plenty of service time, plus on a $2M contract, plus he’s the backup catcher.  He’s staying (unless the Red Sox panic and trade something for him).
• Matt Stairs: Tons of service time; would refuse any outright to AAA and look for another PH job.
• Alex Cora: 11+ years of service time so could refuse outrighting.
• Brian Bixler: Very little service time, was on a minor league contract to begin with, and has options (2011 would be his 3rd option, though he’s been outrighted in the past).

I’ll editorialize about the 25-man spot that Stairs currently occupies for a moment; he is 2 for 21 on the season right now, cannot play the field, and effectively shortens the bench by one player.  If you want his veteran presence around, then DFA him and hire him as a bench coach!

Now, that being said for reasons inexplicable Stairs probably stays on the roster.  So, when Ankiel is ready to come back I’m going to guess that the team options Bixler, keeps 5 outfielders, Ankiel serves as a 4th outfielder, and Morse participates in some sort of lefty-righty platoon with Nix.

We’ll revisit this entire situation once Ryan Zimmerman is ready to play, because that’s when something has to give.