Nationals Arm Race

(tangent from our Nats miseries; yes we just got swept in NY, yes our manager needs to be whacked, yes the team is in serious trouble for 2019.  We’ll talk about it more next week).

Here’s a quick story about Carter Stewart.

He was a top prep player last spring, recording the highest spin rate *ever recorded* on his curve ball.  He was the 9th overall pick of the 2018 draft, couldn’t come to an agreement with the Braves over medicals (not related to his elbow or shoulder fyi .. they were related to MRIs of his wrist, stemming from a skateboarding injury apparently incurred when Stewart was a kid), didn’t sign, bailed out of his 4-yr college commitment to Mississippi State, enrolled in a Florida JuCo so he could do one-and-done in college and re-enter the 2019 draft, played this spring and didn’t wow the scouts (despite sterling statistics) and saw his draft projection (and thus his bonus) fall to perhaps an early 2nd round status.

So what is he doing?  He’s doing what Scott Boras  has dreamed of for two decades representing (ahem, “advising”) amateur players: he’s doing an end-around on the MLB draft.  Stewart announced that he’s opting out of the MLB draft, and signing a 6yr, $7M deal in Japan.

And its a brilliant plan.

Here’s how the numbers work.  Lets say that, for sake of argument, Steward got drafted in 2019, signed for $2M (a stretch frankly, but useful for this conversation).  Here’s likely how the next 6-10 years of his life would go:

• 2019: signs, $2M bonus.  Barely plays, since most prep pitchers spend their draft year in XST learning how to be a pro.
• 2020: XST and then GCL time as a minor leaguer earning $1200/month for 6 months.  Call it $10,000 in total salary for ease of calculation.
• 2021: pitches full season in Low-A as a 21-yr old.  Another $10k in salary
• 2022: moves up to high-A.  Maybe we’ll even give him AA.  10k in salary
• 2023.  He’s not breaking camp with the team, even if he merits a rotation spot .. so he starts in AAA for a few weeks, then moves up and basically earns a full MLB pre-arb salary of $575k.
• 2024: 600k as a 24yr old, 2nd year pre-arb; he earns a small raise

Total earnings through 6 years of service: $2m + 30k + 575k + 600k = $3,205,000 total pay.

So, now he’s through 6 pro seasons, he’s at the end of his age 24 season and he’s got two full years of MLB experience after 4 minor league seasons … and he’s facing another two full pre-arb seasons thanks to service time manipulation in 2023 (which everybody does), taking  him through 2026/age 26, then 3 years of arbitration that limits his salary drastically versus what he’s worth on the open market … and he hits FA in 2029 after 10 years of team control … possibly with a Qualifying Offer tagged to him (unless they CBA it out of existence).

INSTEAD, he signs a $6M deal to go to Japan for those same 6 years, nearly doubles his potential pay, gets legitimate pro experience, and comes out of his experience as a completely free 25yr old.   Oh, and if he hits incentives he can actually triple that $6M pay.  If he had played by the rules of the MLB system at the end of 2024, he’d still be facing another FIVE seasons of artificially limited pay.

Oh, and if he burns out (like a lot of HS arms) and never gets to the majors … he’s got basically 3 TIMES the pay versus his projected bonus.

It makes one wonder; why hasn’t this happened before??  This is a complete no-brainer plan for huge chunks of pro prospects.  If you’re a college-aged top 5 pick making $4-$5M of bonus and perhaps facing just a year and a half in the minors, no.  But consider what Mason Denaburg is now facing (our first round pick out of HS last  year).  He signed last year for $3M … and has YET TO PITCH for our organization now a 1/3rd of the way through his 2nd pro  season and still hasn’t been assigned.   Unless Denaburg is the second coming of Clayton Kershaw, he’s going to spend a good chunk of the next  3 years in the low minors, earning less in a month than major leaguers earn in a day.

The downside to this is, of course, a 19yr old kid from Florida has to go halfway around the world to a culture and a language he doesn’t know.  Sounds daunting … except for the fact that MLB basically has half its minor leagues in the same position, importing non-english speaking talent from the DR, Venezuela, Mexico, etc as well as a slew of other international players who end up here w/o knowing our culture or language.  It isn’t the end of the world.

Honestly … I hope he blazes a path towards forcing MLB to take a pretty hard look at its entire draft and pay structure, which is incredibly tilted towards the owners as the MLBPA has failed for more than 2 decades now to stem the tide of owners chipping away at younger players salaries and earning possibilities.  And, given the embarrassment baseball  (and Oakland) just went through having their 2018 1st rounder Kyle Murray very publicly reject a $4M+ bonus amount and a guaranteed contract offer (specifically outlawed in the last CBA but offered here) so as to go pro in the NFL … it makes you wonder if there’s a need for a revamping of the system.

I hope this isn’t a one-off; I hope Stewart succeeds in Japan and makes a mint coming back to the US as a top-line 25-yr old un-encumbered free agent.  Because that might really spur some change.

Its that time of year; for all the non-playoff contenders, the last few weeks of September are for “showing some fight” and “making a run to build on for the next season.”

In reality, wins in September for a lost team are really only good for one thing: “costing your team spots in the 2019 draft.”

Luckily for one team though this year … the #1 draft pick in 2019 is already sewn up.  The Baltimore Orioles, the pride and joy of Peter Angelos and the major’s best (and most expensive) team back in the mid 1990s … has officially bottomed out in a way that not even the Houston Astros could accomplish.

As of this writing (9/20/18) they sit at 44-108, a .289 W/L percentage.  They sti an astounding 59 games out of first place.  They project to around 46-47 wins, which means the 2003 Detroit Tigers’ ignominious record is safe.  But they’re still projecting to be one of the worst teams in the history of the 162-game era.

Baltimore currently has an 8 game “lead” for the #1 overall draft pick.  Amazingly, Kansas City sits at #2 … and they have nearly as large of a lead for that pick over the next worst teams.

So, how about our Nats?  After selling off and waving the white flag (a few weeks too late, and without getting under the damn luxury tax threshold so why did they bother but thats a different story for a different post), the Nats as of this writing sit at 77-75, projecting to 82-83 wins.  They sit precisely in the middle of the 1st round: 15th overall pick (technically they are the 14th worst team, but Atlanta will get the 9th overall pick thanks to blowing their negotiations earlier this summer with Carter Stewart).  Thanks to the machinations of the standings, its likely that irrespective of how they play out the string, they’ll pick no better than 14th overall in the 1st (and 13th of 30 there on) and no worse than 18th overall in the 1st (and 17th of 30 there after).

So, that’s not bad.  They’ve picked in that general area a few times just in the past few years actually.

• In 2012 they picked 16th overall and got Lucas Giolito.
• In 2014 they picked 18th overall and got Erick Fedde

I guess the consolation prize for this year is a slightly better shot at a good arm in that 14-18 overall pick range.

News that should surprise practically nobody who follows Nats prospects dropped over the Labor Day weekend: 2017 lightning rod 1st rounder Seth Romero will likely miss the *entirety* of the 2019 season as he undergoes Tommy John surgery.

Just to recap Romero’s stellar tenure with the Nats thus far:

• He gets kicked off his college team, multiple times for multiple different knuckle head moves (drugs, curfew, fighting with teammates, etc)
• The Nats telegraph their 2017 first round pick to basically every draft-predicting pundit and select Romero with the 25th overall pick in the 1st round.
• They pay him an *over slot* bonus for some fool reason, despite the fact that he (like a college senior) has no college team to return to.
• He throws just 22 professional innings in 2017, including six short-A starts with a (short sample size ugly ERA of 5.40).
• He’s sent home from spring training for “multiple team rule violations,” and misses fully two months of the 2018 minor league season.
• He finally debuts in 2018 in Low-A (a 1st rounder of his stature should be in at least High-A in his first full pro season), throws 6 starts of 3.91 ERA.
• He hits the D/L in early July, misses another 6 weeks
• Comes back mid-August, throws 2 innings, is removed from the game … and then three weeks later we find out about his TJ.

Grand total pro starts to this point: 14 (two of which were of the 2-inning “pseudo start” varieties).  Age he’ll be in spring training 2020 when he’s ready to go again?  23, turning 24 as soon as the 2020 season starts.

Extent to which this entire situation has blown up in the Nats’ faces: very high.

I’m really beginning to question this group’s ability to execute on first rounders in the new CBA.  I focus on the 1st rounders because, really, that’s where you spend the most money and that’s really the one pick you cannot afford to screw up.  Here’s the Nats first picks since the new CBA went into effect:

• 2012: Giolito, Renda, Mooneyham
• 2013: No 1st rounder, Johansen, Ward
• 2014: Fedde, Suarez (who didn’t sign), Reetz
• 2015: No 1st rounder, Stevenson, Perkins, Wisemann
• 2016: Kieboom, Dunning, Neuse, Luzardo
• 2017: Romero, Crowe, Raquet
• 2018: Denaburg, Cate, Schaller

I’m sorry, but tell me which of these sets of players is a “success?”  2012?  Nope; Giolito may pan out, maybe not, but he’s been at best the definition of inconsistent in 2018 … and for another team.  2013?  Absolutely not.  2014?  Fedde looks like maybe a 5th starter right now and Suarez didn’t sign; how do you not sign a 2nd rounder under the modern draft rules?  2015?  A 5th outfielder, a guy who may have peaked in low-A and a corner org-guy.  That’s not a win.

2016 looks pretty damn good … except that three of these four players were traded to other teams to make up for other team deficiencies!  Dunning is projecting like a mid-rotation guy perhaps, Neuse looks solid, but Luzardo is now being called perhaps the best lefty prospect in the minors.  All gone.  At least they managed to retain Kieboom.  But its ironic that perhaps their best draft in the last 7 years essentially ends up benefiting primarily other teams.  Ok, yes that’s unfair given that we traded these guys to get assets to help us now, but its worth noting that the two guys we flipped Neuse and Luzardo for are now traded and injured, and the guy we acquired for Dunning (and others) missed essentially the entirety of 2017.  Yeah you can’t predict injuries, blah, blah, but given how 2018 has turned out don’t you wish you had these moves back at this point?  Do you think this team would have done any differently in 2017 and 2018 without those moves?  Just a thought.

2017?  Crowe looks like a great pick.  Nothing personal against Raquet, but I hated the pick when it happened, and he’s done little to impress since.  In High-A this year he struck out just 36 guys in 55 innings, had a .319 Batting average against (giving up an astounding 72 hits in 55 innings) and finished the season with a 4.91 ERA (greatly helped by his managing to throw a 1-hit shut out his last start).  I mean, where do you go from here with him?  He’s not a starter; do you dump him to the bullpen and have him repeat High-A?

2018?  Obviously too soon to pass judgement, but where the hell is Denaburg?  He got assigned to the GCL team in mid July and never appeared.  Cate ended the year in the low-A rotation, which would normally indicate a nice season, but he posted ugly ERAs in both Short-A and Low-A with mediocre peripherals.  Schaller was drafted as a reliever but stretched out as a starter professionally and struggled; a 5.90 ERA and just 16 Ks in 29 short-A innings.  Not good.

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Conclusion: I’m not sure this front office can draft anymore.  And after watching them him and haw at the trade deadline and then eventually get little to no return for departing vets, i’m not sure they are effectively managing things either.  And lastly, having the GM come in and trade away two veteran players in order to save his rookie manager’s face smacks of having your big older brother come in and slug the neighborhood bullies because you’re too weak to handle your own problems.

All in all, not a very good 2018.  I’ve been a defender of Mike Rizzo in the past, but a lot of these moves are reminders that  he has some weaknesses as an overall GM.  He’s now on his 6th manager in 10 years in charge (Acta, Riggleman, Johnson, Williams, Baker and now Martinez, not counting a few interim games post-Riggleman resignation).  He’s clearly struggling to handle the draft correctly.  Scott Boras routinely goes over his head to management to make bad moves (its no surprise that Romero was a Boras client), and as a result of poor roster construction they’ve gutted the farm system over the past few years only to completely lose the plot in 2018, the year they were supposed to win it all.

At what point do you really question the direction of this team under Rizzo?

 

Welcome to my DC Area Prep Baseball Tourney coverage for 2018.

Here’s the rough schedule of posting and what we’ll cover:

• #1: DC/MD/VA District High School Tournament Report: post-season kickoff .  Covers: MD regionals, VA district brackets, Private school tourney updates.  Usually publishes the week before Memorial day tournament finals.
• #2: Maryland State Champs, Virginia District and Regional Champs crowned.   Covers: MD state finals, VA regionals tourneys, DC regular season results.  Usually publishes after the Memorial Day weekend tournaments finish up.
• #3: Virginia State Champions crowned.  Covers: VA state tourneys, recaps MD, DC, Private School results.  Publishes mid-June once the Va state tourney wraps up.
• #4: Players of the Year/All-State lists and final rankings (this post); publishes early July once all the all-state lists are published

We now should be through the “All-Everything” lists start getting published.  Here’s my tracker of them.  I try to note the player of the year in each case.  If i’m missing something, please let me know.  I’ve put results in red that I either cannot find or are behind a paywall or seem to have been discontinued.  I realize this is kind of anti-climactic at this point; lots of these players mentioned were drafted weeks ago and may already be playing.  But it takes some of these orgs til late June/early July to announce.

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Individual Player Accolades Announced

In addition to being playoff-baseball time, this is also the time of the year that we start to see player awards.  I’ll put these in as they publish, but we won’t expect most of these until the end of June.

• Gatorade announced their player of the year awards.  National POTY is LHP Ryan Weathers from Loretto HS in Loretto Tennessee.  Vanderbilt commit, went 7th overall in the 2018 draft.  None of our local 3 players were drafted.
  • Maryland: Ryan Archibald, RHP/SS from John Carroll HS (Bel Air).  Committed to Arizona.
  • Washington DC: Zach Tsakounis, LHP/OF from St. Johns.  committed to William & Mary.
  • Virginia: Cade Huntgate, RHP/SS for Abingdon HS (Bristol).  Committed to Florida State.

• Louisville Slugger All-Americans: not sure if being named any longer.
• National High School Coaches Association (NHSCA) All Mid Atlantic Region:
• MaxPreps High School All-Americans: Nolan Gorman POTY from Phoenix AZ.  19th overall pick to St. Louis.  Local players selected include LCA’s Wesley Clarke to 1st team, Adam Hackenberg, Kody Milton to 2nd team.
• Baseball America High School All-Americans:
• Under Armor All-Americans:
• USA Today/American Family All-USA teams: J.T. Ginn, Brandon HS (Miss) is POTY.  Mississippi State commit, 1st round draft pick (30th overall) in 2018 draft.  Riverdale Baptist’s Corey Rosier was named to the 2nd team.
• USA Today/American Family All-State Teams and POTYs:
  • Maryland: Kody Milton, Inf Severna Park MD is POTY.  UMaryland commit
  • Washington DC: Collin Bosley-Smith, RHP from Wilson HS, a sophomore (!).
  • Virginia:  Wesley Clarke, C for Liberty Christian Academy is POTY.    South Carolina commit, 40th round draft pick 2018.
• American Baseball Coaches Association (ABCA)/Rawlings High School All Americans:
• Collegiate Baseball High School All-Americans:
• Perfectgame.org/Rawlings All-Americans:  Jeremiah Jackson, St. Luke’s Episcopal HS (Ala.) is PG National POTY.  Mississippi State commit, 2nd round 2018 pick by Angels.   Matthew Libratadore is national pitcher of the year, Ryan Weathers is national 2-way player of the year.
  • Maryland:  Ryan Archibald, RHP/SS from John Carroll HS (Bel Air).  Committed to Arizona.
  • Washington DC: (not named)
  • Virginia: Adam Hackenberg, C from the Miller School is POTY.  Clemson commit, 39th round draft pick 2018.
• Washington Post All-Met teams:  Kody Milton, Inf Severna Park MD is POTY.  UMaryland commit.
  • (here’s a great list of every All-Met team named since 1990 in all sports; fantastic resource for local prep sports fans).
• The Baltimore Sun’s All-Metro Team:
• Richmond Times-Dispatch All-Metro Team:
• Virginian Pilot All-Tidewater team:
• Virginia Class 6 All Region Teams
  • Region A (Tidewater) All Regional team:
  • Region B (Richmond) All Regional team:
  • Region C (Occoquan) All-Regional team: Lake Braddock’s Matt Thomas (W&M commit) named POTY.
  • Region D (North) All Regional team: Madison’s Kyle Novak (JMU commit) named Region POTY.  Marshall’s Patrick Halligan (GMU commit) and South Lakes’ Josh Taylor (uncommitted) named co-pitchers of the year.
• Virginia Class 5 All Region Teams
  • Region A (Tidewater area) All-Regional team: Hickory RHP Drew Stanley (a sophomore) named Region POTY.   Link behind a pay-wall for full team.
  • Region B (Richmond) All Regional team:
  • Region C (Northern VA) All Regional team: Potomac Falls LHP Nate Savino (a sophomore) named Region POTY.
  • Region D (Northwest and Western VA) All Regional team: Potomac LHP Brody Mack (a junior) named Region POTY.
• Virginia Class 4 All Region Teams
  • Region A (Tidewater area) All-Regional team:
  • Region B (Richmond) All Regional team:
  • Region C (Northern VA) All Regional team: Riverside Jr SS Carson Swank co-POTY along with Blaze O’Saben, SS for Fauquier HS (UMBC commit).
  • Region D (Northwest and Western VA) All Regional team:
• Other Virginia All-Regional teams: harder to come by:
  • Class 3 Region B (Culpepper/Warrenton area): Max Harper, 1B for Spotsylania is POTY.   Uncommitted as of this writing.
• Northern Virginia All-District teams: Available at this link at Novabaseballmagazine.com, thanks to Joey Kamide for all his hard work.
• NovaBaseballMagazine Nova Nine: Madison’s Kyle Novak (JMU commit) named NovaNine POTY.
• PrepBaseballReport
  • All Maryland Team: 5/29/18 team released, POTYs announced June 11th-14th.  Jacob Zebron, RHP Colonel Richardson HS POTY, NC State commit, 18th round draft pick.
  • All Virginia/DC Team: Wesley Clarke, C for Liberty Christian Academy is POTY.    South Carolina commit, 40th round draft pick 2018.
• VHSL All-State Teams:
  • 6-A: Matt Thomas, C Lake Braddock is POTY.  William & Mary commit.
  • 5-A: Tevin Tucker, SS Prince George HS is POTY.  West Virginia commit.
  • 4-A: Wesley Clarke, C for Liberty Christian Academy is POTY.    South Carolina commit, 40th round draft pick 2018.
  • 3-A: Max Harper, 1B for Spotsylania is POTY.   Uncommitted as of this writing.
  • 2-A: T.R. Williams, a *freshman* RHP from Page County, is POTY.
  • 1-A: Carson Bell, SS from Washington & Lee HS POTY.
• VISAA’s All-State teams: named in early may and announced for all three divisions here.  Players of the Year;
  • Division I All State Team.  Nick Biddison, SS St. Christophers in Richmond is POTY.  Virginia Tech commit.
  • Division II All State Team.  Adam Hackenberg, C from the Miller School is POTY.  Clemson commit, 39th round draft pick 2018.
  • Division III All State Team
• Maryland All-MIAA All-State teams: behind a paywall that i’m tired of fighting 🙂
  • MIAA A division: behind a paywall
  • MIAA B division: behind a paywall
  • MIAA C division: behind a paywall
• Maryland State Association of Baseball Coaches (MSABC) All-Maryland teams: four regional all-star teams picked for exhibitions played over Memorial Day weekend.
  • here’s a great history of the MSABC games, including past rosters.
• Maryland Brooks Robinson All-Star game rosters: announced 5/31/18.
• Anne-Arundel County All-Baseball team:
• Montgomery County All-Baseball Team: Michael Bouma, 1B from Sherwood player of the year (UMaryland commit), Ben Vok, RHP Sherwood (a junior) Pitcher of the year.
• All Baltimore-City 2017 Baseball team: behind a paywall
• All WCAC 2018: Thomas Russell, RHP from Paul VI.  Navy commit.
• All IAC 2018: Clark Klitenic, LHP from St. Albans was POTY as a junior.  Duke commit.
• All MAC 2018:

If I missed an award, or if you know of something I don’t, don’t hesitate to post.

Updated for the 2019 draft

In 2018, just four players from the top 10 rounds failed to come to terms with their drafting team.  This was slightly higher than the previous couple of seasons, but interesting this year because all four non-signing players were basically the same situation: high-end 1st round prep players with big price tags who in the end each turned down at least $2M each (and in some cases a ton more) to go off to school and lock themselves in for 3 years of playing for unaccountable, arm shredding, self-interested NCAA coaches who often could care less about player development and more about their next conference title and regional hosting bid.

And each of them probably made a huge mistake.

Its a common refrain among pundits in the amateur baseball world (Keith Law in particular) that HS players should “take the money” if they’re drafted high enough.   Certainly any first rounder would be a fool to turn away that kind of money, and mostly any prep player offered something in the upper 6 figure range should give serious consideration.  MLB contracts generally include college tuition … so even if you sign out of HS you still have 4 years fully paid for in case you wash out.  So instead of gambling on your health, or the fickleness of the baseball draft (where one bad start can cost you 30 spots in the draft and millions of dollars), take the cash when its offered.

But, don’t take our word for it.  Lets look at the empirical evidence of every player over the past seven drafts who has forgone the cash to see if there’s any trends.

Here’s a summary of the last few years of players who did not sign from the top 10 rounds.  This only goes back to 2012, since that’s the beginning of the new draft rules.

• 2021: 3
• 2020: ?
• 2019: 2
• 2018: 4 (all 1st or supp-1st rounders)
• 2017: 3
• 2016: 2
• 2015: 6
• 2014: 6 (two of which were Nats picks: Andrew Suarez and Austin Byler in that ill-fated draft class, and one more who didn’t sign thanks to Houston’s screwing up the Brady Aiken deal and who was eventually granted free agency).
• 2013: 8
• 2012: 8

These are the total non-signings for the top ten ROUNDS of draftees, meaning anywhere between 300 and 350 guys comprising the top 10 rounds and supplementals.  So in the seven years and roughly 2200 players drafted in the top 10 rounds in the last 7 seasons, a grand total of 37 have failed to sign.

Side note: each year we hear about all these players who aren’t going to sign or that negotiations are tough, when in reality the modern CBA rules nearly guarantee 100% signing among drafted players (unless there’s a huge misunderstanding on draft day, or a huge disagreement about medicals).  The draft pools are structured so that the penalties for NOT signing players can cascade and affect your ability to sign other players  (see Houston’s issue in the 2014 draft), so teams are now basically calling players in advance and saying, “If we draft you at X, will you sign for $Y?” … so the only reason players don’t sign is if there’s a serious breakdown or mis-understanding.

So, why do i say that you should always take the money?  Well, lets ask ourselves: out of these 37 players who didn’t sign.. who actually IMPROVED their draft status by not signing?  Lets go year by year and look at the players who failed to sign.

(a caveat here: I did not look at the dollar amounts offered here; this is basically draft round analysis.  Its possible that a 5th rounder in one year went in the 8th the next and got offered more money … but its quite rare with the new draft rules and bonus pools.  Everything changed with the new CBA that went into effect in 2012.  The Nats in particular spent $14.6M on draft bonuses in 2011.  The next  year?  $4.6M, with most of it going to one player in Lucas Giolito).

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2021: 3 players did not sign from the top 10 rounds:

• Kumar Rocker, RHP Vanderbilt, in a well publicized blow-up, the Mets drafted Rocker 10th overall and made a huge splash announcing a $6M over-slot bonus .. then ran into issues with his medicals, resulting in the two sides failing to agree on anything and the Mets passing on the Vanderbilt star altogether.  Rocker’s agent (ahem, “advisor”) Scott Boras of course refused to make his medicals available ahead of time, and of course claimed that there was no injury, but the damage is now done.  Rocker cannot go back to school, and will likely go to independent ball to re-enter the draft in 2022.
• Jud Fabian, OF Florida; saw his draft stock fall from a possible top-5 pick all the way out of the first round.  But, he apparently had a $3M deal with some team in the second, but those plans were foiled when Boston selected him at the beginning of the 2nd round.  Fabian stuck to his bonus demands, and the two sides could not reach an agreement.  Fabian will go back to school.
• Alex Ulloa, prep SS from Texas failed to come to terms with Houston as a 4th round pick.  He’s Oklahoma State committed, but rumblings he may go Juco to re-enter the draft in 2022.

Verdict: Its hard to believe Rocker will be able to beat $6M, but who knows.  Fabian will lose leverage coming back in 2022 as a senior, and Ulloa will have some time to improve on his 4th round bonus dollars.

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2020: in a shortened 5-round Covid-related draft, not one player picked in the 5 rounds failed to sign.

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2019: 2 players did not sign from the top 10 rounds

• Brandon Sproat, RHP Fla HS 7th/205 overall by Texas.  $222,100 slot value, which wasn’t enough to buy Sproat out of his commitment to Florida.
• Wyatt Hendrie, C from Calif Juco 10th/312 overall by Chicago Cubs.  $142,200 slot value.  Cubs seemingly ran into slot issues with both 10th and 11th rounder, and Hendrie wouldn’t take under slot.

Verdict: both players are still in College as of mid 2021; Hendrie was draft eligible in the shortened 2020 draft but was not taken and is now enrolled at San Diego State, presumably not eligible until 2022.

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2018: 4 players did not sign

• Carter Stewart, RHP Fla HS. 1st/8th overall. Atlanta didn’t like Physical, offered 40% of slot value ($1.9M); initially slated to Mississippi State.  Update: However, he did an about face, went to a Juco instead with the plan on re-entering the 2019 draft.  When he struggled in Juco and fell to a mid 2nd round projection … he attempted an end-around of the MLB draft rules and signed to play in japan, a situation I detailed in this space.  2021 update: he has graduated the Japan minor leagues into the majors at this point but has not found his foothold there yet.
• Matt McLain: 2B Calif HS. 1st/25: Asked $3M, Arizona offered $2.6M didn’t budge, going to UCLA.  Update: picked 17th overall in the 2021 draft and signed for $4.63M.
• JT Ginn: RHP Miss HS. 1st/30th: LA dodgers offered $2.4M, asking $2.9M, going to Mississippi State.  Update: drafted 2nd round/52nd overall in 2020 draft, signed for $2.9M with the Mets in a well over-slot deal.  So two years later he got his asking number.
• Gunnar Hoglund: LHP Fla HS. 1supp/36: Pittsburgh didn’t like physical, low-balled and he declined. going to Ole Miss.  2021; was projected as a top 10 pick, hurt his arm, had TJ but still got drafted 19th overall by Toronto and signed for $3.25M.

McLean drastically improved his stock, Ginn got what he wanted, and Hoglund (despite his injury) got paid.  I already detailed why I think Stewart’s deal is smart.

Verdict: All four made the right decision.

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2017: 3 players did not sign

• Drew Rasmussen, RHP, Oregon State, 1s/31st overall. Failed to sign with Tampa, who (I guess) didn’t like his medicals.  He was coming back from TJ and only had a few weeks of action before the draft. Went 6th round in 2018 to Milwaukee in 2018
• Jack Conlon, RHP, Clements HS (Sugar Land, Texas). 4th round/128 overall. Failed to sign with Baltimore, went to Texas A&M.  Update: left TAMU, went to San Jacinto, then enrolled in Rice and sat out 2020.  However, he wasn’t on the 2021 roster, and its unclear where he’s playing at this point.
• Jo Jo Booker, RHP, Miller HS (Brewton, Ala.). 5th round/145 overall. failed to sign with LA Angels, with to South Alabama.  Was not drafted in 2020 or 2021 out of USA; unclear if he will return for a 5th season or if he is done.

Two players who ended up playing themselves out of any bonus dollars.  Rasmussen didn’t turn down the Rays as much as they refused to tender him a contract … they must have tendered him something because they got a comp pick in 2018 draft.  So he turned down 40% of first round money in 2017 to sign an under-slot deal in the 6th round of 2018 ($135k, just $10k more than the non-top 10 rounds minimum).  I’d say this was a bad move by the player unless Tampa flat out refused to pay a dollar.

Verdict: 1 worsened his draft position, 2 missed out on any draft money.

2016: 2 players did not sign

• Nick Lodolo: 1S/41st overall; LHP from Damien HS in California. failed to sign with Pittsburgh, went to TCU instead, draft eligible in 2019.  In 2021, drafted 7th overall, signed for $5.43M.
• Tyler Buffett: 7th/217 overall; RHP, failed to sign with Houston. returned to Oklahoma State, drafted in 6th round in 2017 and signed with Cincinnati

Lodolo went to school (an arm-shredder program in TCU even) and went from 41st overall to 7th overall, with probably 3x the bonus.  Furthermore, by 2021 he was one of the best pitching prospects in the game.  Meanwhile Buffett improved his draft position one round by going back to school.

Verdict: 1 drastically improved his draft pick and money, 1 improved his draft position one round.

2015: 6 guys did not sign.

• Kyle Funkhouser: 1st/35th overall: RHP from Louisville, failed to sign with LA Dodgers, turning down an above-slot $2M. 4th rounder in 2016, signed with Detroit.
• Brady Singer, 2nd/56th overall: RHP Florida HS. failed to sign with Toronto, went to Florida and was 1st rounder in 2018, signed with Kansas City
• Jonathan Hughes, 2nd/68th overall: RHP Georgia HS. failed to sign with Baltimore, went to Georgia Tech and not even drafted in 2018…
• Kyle Cody, 2nd/73rd overall: RHP U Kentucky. failed to sign with Minnesota, drafted in 6th round in 2016 and signed with Texas
• Nicholas Shumpert, 7th/220th overall. SS Colorado HS. failed to sign with Detroit. Went to San Jacinto CC, drafted in 28th round 2016 by Atlanta and signed.
• Kep Brown, 10th/311 overall. RF South Carolina HS, failed to sign with LA Dodgers. went to Juco, then to UNC-Wilmington, not drafted in 2018.

Funkhouser was the biggest “whoops” here; a poor spring took him from his pre-season top 10 draft position all the way out of the first round, but he still demanded upper 1st round money.  He didn’t get it … and then fell to the 4th round the next year.  That was a big fail.  Singer clearly improved on his 2nd round status by going to college.    Cody slipped from being a 2nd rounder to a 6th rounder.  The other three guys drastically fell on draft boards; one of them going from a 10th rounder to not even being drafted.

Verdict: 1 improved, 5 hurt draft stock

2014: 6 failed to sign

• Brady Aiken: 1/1 overall, RHP from San Diego HS. failed to sign with Houston, went to IMG Academy in FL, drafted 1/17 by Cleveland
• Andrew Suarez: 2nd/57 overall LHP from UMiami, failed to sign with Washington. Drafted 2nd round/61st overall in 2015 by San Francisco
• Trevor Megill; 3rd/104th overall RHP from Loyola Marymount. failed to sign with Boston, drafted 7th/207 in 2015 draft and signed with San Diego
• Jacob Nix: 5th/136 RHP from Los Alomitos HS; couldn’t sign when Tampa lost bonus money, sued, FA, signed with San Diego
• Zack Zehner: 7th/204 OF from Cal Poly, failed to sign with Toronto. Drafted 18th round 2015 and signed with NYY
• Austin Byler, 9th/274 1B from nevada-Reno. failed to sign with Washington, drafted 11th round in 2015 and signed with Arizona

Aiken became quite the rarity; the first #1 overall baseball pick to fail to sign in 30  years.    But his lack of signing cascaded and cost the Astros both their 5th rounder Nix and another player later on thanks to the new draft rules on bonus pools; Nix ended up being declared a FA in a face-saving move by MLB so as not to admit that their new bonus cap circumvention rules were BS.  Aiken had no where to go but down from 1-1 so he obviously cost himself money.  The others all fell, if only slightly in Suarez’s case.

Verdict: 1 didn’t count, 5 lowered draft stock

2013: 8 failed to sign

• Phil Bickford: 1/10 RHP California HS. Toronto failed to sign. went to Southern Nevada juco, drafted 1/18 by SF and signed.
• Matt Krook 1s/35 LHP calif HS. Miami failed to sign, went to Oregon State, drafted 4th round by SF in 2016
• Ben DeLuzio 3rd/80 SS from Fla HS. Miami failed to sign. Went to Florida State, played 4 years … undrafted out of college, NDFA with Arizona
• Ben Holmes, 5th /151 LHP Oregon State. Philly failed to sign. went 9th round in 2014
• Jason Monda 6th/181 OF Washington State. Philly failed to sign … then accused him of NCAA violations. he wasn’t drafted again and quit to go to Med school
• Stephen Woods 6th/188 RHP NY HS: Tampa failed to sign, went to Suny-Albany, drafted 8th round 2016 by SF and signed
• Dustin DeMuth 8th/230 3B from Indiana, Minnesota failed to sign, became 5th rounder in 2014 and signed with Milwaukee
• Ross Kivett 10th/291 2B from kansas State. Cleveland failed to sign, became 6th rounder in 2014 and signed with Detroit

Bickford fell 8 slots year over  year but still fell.   DeMuth and Kivett both improved their stock.  The rest fell, drastically in some cases.

Verdict: 2 improved, 6 fell

2012: 8 failed to sign

• Mark Appel 1/8 RHP Stanford by Pittsburgh. failed to sign, was 1/1 in 2013 with Houston
• Teddy Stankiewicz 2/75 RHP from Texas Hs. failed to sign with Mets, went Juco, 2/45 in 2013 by Boston
• Alec Rash, 2/95 by Philadelphia from IA HS. went to Missouri, 2015 drafted in 23rd round by Washington but still didn’t sign; quit baseball and started playing NCAA basketball
• Kyle Twomey, 3/106 LHP Calif HS Oakland. Drafted 13th round 3 yrs later out of USC by Chicago Cubs.
• Brandon Thomas 4/136 OF from Ga Tech; didn’t sign with Pittsburgh, drafted 8th round one year later and signed with NYY
• Colin Poche 5/162 LHP texas h s. failed to sign with Baltimore, went to Dallas Baptist, undrafted Jr year, drafted 14th round 2016 by Arizona
• Nick Halamandaris 8/251 1B Calif HS. failed to sign with Seattle, played 4 years at cal, undrafted jr and Sr year, NDFA with Seattle, played one season
• L.J. Mazzilli 9/280 2B from UConn. 4th rounder in 2013 signed with NY Mets

Appel managed to improve from 8th overall to 1st overall.  Stankiewicz also improved his stock about a round’s worth.  Mazzilli improved from a 9th rounder to a 4th rounder.  The others all fell.

Verdict: 3 up, 5 down.

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Summary: of the 37 players who failed to sign:

• 7 too early to tell yet (7 hs, 0 coll)
• 22 hurt their draft stock by failing to sign (12 HS, 10 coll)
• 7 improved their draft stock.  (1 HS, 6 coll).  Of those who improved:
  • Two improved one round (1 HS, 1 coll) HS kid was Brady Singer
  • Two improved slightly within the same round (2 coll): Mark Appel, Stankiewicz
  • One went from 8th round to 5th round (1 coll)
  • One went from 10th round to 6th round (1 coll)
  • One went from a 9th rounder to a 4th rounder. (1 coll)
• 1 didn’t really count b/c of the Houston 2014 draft bonus shenanigans (Jacob Nix, HS)

So there you have it.  7 of 37 turned down money and look like they slightly made out (19%).   22/37 (60%) did not … and in some cases clearly cost themselves millions of dollars.  And even those 7 who did improve their ranking … not one of them in my opinion drastically improved their stock by going to college.  In fact, you can make the argument that getting drafted in the 8th round in one year, playing another year in college and then going in the 5th round probably *hurts* a player’s pro prospects because now he’s a year older versus his peers and has lost a year of pro development time.  A 22 yr old college senior draftee is already “old for the level” until he gets to at least Low-A, which is no guarantee even in his second pro year.

Now, has it ever worked out for a player to turn down significant 1st round money?  Yeah a couple times; Mark Appel gambled and improved his stock just before the new CBA took hold; in fact he managed to go 1-1 despite being a college senior with zero leverage.  Garrett Cole also made out by going to school.  So did a few others in the pre-2012 CBA eras.   But its a rarity; I’ve got another post that goes over these and some of the biggest nightmares for a later date.

Food for thought.

July 6th came and went, and the Nats signed their #1 overall pick without too much fanfare, giving Mason Denaburg a nice bump over his slot value and wrapping up the 2018 Draft Class.

Here’s a table of the 29 players we successfully signed, with known bonus amounts.  The MLBpipeline Draft Tracker is the most up-to-date resource for this data now that Baseball America has taken most of its stuff behind a paywall.

Round+JA7:J38	Overall	Name	Position	Col/HS	College or Cmtm	State	Signed?	Bonus Amt	Slot Value
1	27	Denaburg, Mason	RHP (Str)	HS	Florida	FL	Yes	3000000	2472700
2	65	Cate, Tim	LHP (Str)	Coll Jr	Uconn	CT	Yes	986200	986200
3	101	Schaller, Reid	RHP (Rel)	Coll So	Vanderbilt	TN	Yes	555100	555100
4	131	Irvin, Jake	RHP (Str)	Coll Jr	Oklahoma	OK	Yes	550000	414500
5	161	Canning, Gage	OF	Coll Jr	Arizona State	AZ	Yes	308900	308900
6	191	Karp, Andrew	RHP (Str)	Coll Sr	Florida State	FL	Yes	200000	239600
7	221	Day, Chandler	RHP (Rel)	Coll Jr	Vanderbilt	TN	Yes	188300	188300
8	251	Cropley, Tyler	C	Coll Sr	Iowa	IA	Yes	10000	157200
9	281	Driskill, Tanner	RHP (Str)	Coll Sr	Lamar	TX	Yes	10000	144400
10	311	Shaddy, Carson	2B	Coll Sr	Arkansas	AR	Yes	10000	136900
11	341	Bartow, Frankie	RHP (Rel)	Coll Jr	Miami	FL	Yes	125000
13	401	Wilson, Cody	OF (Corner)	Coll Jr	Florida Atlantic U	FL	Yes	125000
14	431	Fletcher, Aaron	LHP (Str)	Coll Jr	Houston	TX	Yes	125000
15	461	Lee, Evan	LHP (rel)/OF	Coll So	Arkansas	AR	Yes	125000
16	491	Teel, Carson	LHP (Str)	Coll Jr	Oklahoma State	OK	Yes	125000
18	551	Rhinesmith, Jacob	OF (CF)	Coll Jr	Western Kentucky	KY	Yes	125000
20	611	Vega, Onix	C	JC J1	Broward College	FL	Yes	125000
21	641	Tapani, Ryan	RHP (Str)	Coll Sr	Creighton	NB	Yes	10000
22	671	Daily, Cole	SS	Coll Jr	Notre Dame	IN	Yes
24	731	Marinconz, Kyle	SS	Coll Jr	Cal Poly San Luis Obispo	CA	Yes	60000
25	761	Vann, Chris	LHP (Str)	Coll Sr	Mercer	GA	Yes	3000
26	791	Morse, Colin	RHP (Str)	Coll Sr	Shenandoah	VA	Yes	3000
27	821	O'Connor, Pablo	2B	Coll Sr	Azusa Pacific University	CA	Yes
28	851	Chisolm, Blake	1B	Coll Sr	Sam Houston State	TX	Yes
29	881	Pogue, Colton	SS	Coll Sr	Pittsburg State U	KS	Yes
30	911	Vickers, Trey	SS	Coll Sr	Wichita State	KS	Yes
31	941	Quintana, Jonathan	OF	Coll Sr	Barry U	FL	Yes	3000
32	971	Maley, Alec	RHP (Str)	Coll Sr	Kentucky	KY	Yes	3000
38	1151	Milacki, Bobby	RHP	Coll Jr	Arizona Christian U	AZ	Yes	25000

Summary of the 29 drafted players:

• One High Schooler, 13 College Seniors
• 16 Arms (including Evan Lee) and 13 Bats
• Of the 16 arms, 4 were relievers in College and are (presumably) already routed to that role in the pros.
• Thus, 15 College players with eligibility remaining
• As of this writing, two guys have already been double promoted to Hagerstown; 11th rounder Frankie Bartow, UMiami’s closer this past season, and 5th rounder Cage Ganning, OF from UCLA.
• I count $6,800,500 in total bonus money paid out, more than their bonus pool figure of $5,603,800 and a bit more than their 5% cushion figure above the bonus pool figure of $5,883,990
• A few of the lower level bonus figures have yet to be disclosed; i could see Cole Daily getting a $125k bonus or near to it since he got bought out of his senior year, but the rest of the players w/o known bonuses were College Seniors who probably each got the same $3,000 bonus that other College Seniors got in rounds 20 and up.
• As of this writing, 2 have yet to be assigned, 15 went to the GCL, 9 went straight to Auburn, and 3 played a week or so in the GCL before getting to Auburn.

Verdict on this class overall: I like the fact that they threw out a ton of max $125k bonuses in the rounds 11-20; that certainly wasn’t the case last  year and it may have bought them some good players.  I’m ok with Denaburg as their 1st rounder and wasn’t as hung up on picking a more “famous” name at that point in the draft.  Unlike in 2017, I liked who they got in the rounds 3-6 area, and I think they may have a real player in 10th round senior sign Carson Shaddy.    In the rounds 11-20 they got a number of weekend starters from good schools to sign for the $125k figure, one of which has already forced his way to be twice-promoted.  Of course, when nearly half your draft dollars go to one kid, and that kid is a high schooler who probably is playing in our minor leagues for the next 5 years … its going to be quite a while til we really know if this was a winning class or not.

 

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Here’s a table of the 11 guys who did not sign:

Round+JA7:J38	Overall	Name	Position	Col/HS	College or Cmtm	State	Signed?
12	371	Lawson, Graham	RHP (Rel)	Coll Jr	South Carolina	SC	Won't
17	521	Chapman, Ridge	RHP (Str)	Coll Jr	South Carolina	SC	Won't
19	581	Linginfelter, Zach	RHP (rel)	Coll So	Tennessee	TN	Didn't
23	701	Hamilton, Cole	C	JC J1	Linn Benton CC	OR	Won't
33	1001	Haney, Jack	C	HS	Cedartown HS	GA	Didn't
34	1031	Baca, Tyler	OF	HS	The Linfield School (CA)	CA	Didn't
35	1061	Binelas, Alex	1B	HS	Oak Creek HS (WI)	WI	Won't
36	1091	Blessie, Bo	RHP	HS	Robert E Lee HS (TX)	TX	Won't
37	1121	Wilcox, Cole	RHP	HS	Heritage HS (GA)	GA	Won't
39	1181	Nardi, Andrew	LHP	JC J2	Moorpark Col (CA)	CA	Didn't
40	1211	Menhart, Michael	RHP	HS	Richmond Hill HS	GA	Didn't

Quick Summary here:

• The big misses here of course are the 12th and 17th rounders from South Carolina, both of whom announced on twitter within a few minutes of each other of their intent to return to school.
• 19th rounder Zach Linginfelter was a draft-eligible Sophomore from Tennessee who made it into their weekend rotation late in the season and had the easy decision to return to school, where he probably is a weekend starter all next year and could easily find his way into the top 10 rounds.
• 6 of the 11 non-signees were 30th+ round prep players who were never going to sign … either because they were 1st round rumored kids with million dollar price tags or because they were legacy picks
• 2 of the non-signees are Juco guys who were a little hard to find info on: Cole Hamilton and Andrew Nardi.  Nardi seems to have a committment to go to Arizona; can’t blame him for heading to a good program.  Hamilton doesn’t even have a perfectgame.org profile and too common of a name to research on twitter.

No major misses; highest non-signed player was a 12th rounder.

Here’s a review of MLB Draftees in 2018 with Local ties.  By Local, I mean any player that either went to high school or college anywhere in DC, MD or VA.

We posted earlier about all the marquee names in the area who may get draft notice;  almost all of them went undrafted  this year and so lots of colleges are getting VA and MD based kids heading to school.

Its clear to me that several clubs in particular had strong area scouts in the Virginia area;

• Chicago Cubs: the Cubs took four Virginia-tied players in the top 10 picks and a fifth later on.
• Cleveland: they took three locally-tied players in the first 11 rounds
• New York Yankees: took four locally-tied players in this draft, three between the 8th and 13th rounds.
• Cincinnati took two VA-college players in the top 10 rounds (both likely senior sign/money savers)
• Arizona took three VA-tied players, including a flier on Zach Hess in the later rounds after he so precipitously fell.

There are several high schoolers in the DC/MD/VA area with commits to major colleges who went completely un-drafted, surprising me.  Stephen Pelli (UNC commit), Cade Huntgate (Florida State), Will Schroeder (also UNC), Kody Milton (UMD), Tyler Casagrande (Vanderbilt), Jacob Steinberg (Miami), and Ryan Archibald (Arizona).   This list includes both the Virginia and Maryland Gatorade players of the year for 2018, normally guys who are getting significant draft attention.

Its kind of a down year for prep players in the area.  We didn’t see a DC/MD/VA prep player even picked until the 18th round, and then  just a handful of others with throw-away mid-30th round picks.

Here’s a full table of all locally tied kids drafted this year.

Round	Overall	DC Local	State	Drafting Team	Player	Position	Col/HS	HS	College (or Commit)
1	34	No	VA	Kansas City	Lynch, Daniel	LHP	4YR JR	Freeman (Richmond)	UVA
1-supp	39	No	VA	Arizona	McCarthy, Jake	OF	4YR JR	Scranton HS (Scranton PA)	UVA
1-supp	43	No	VA	St. Louis	Roberts, Griffin	RHP	4YR JR	James River HS (Midlothian)	Wake Forest
3	103	No	MD	Cleveland	Palacios, Richard	SS	4YR JR	Brooklyn NY	Towson
5	158	No	VA	Chicago Cubs	Weber, Andy	2B	4YR JR	Auburn, OH	UVA
5	154	No	MD	St. Louis	Dunn, Nick	2B	4YR JR	Sunbury PA	UMD
7	218	No	VA	Chicago Cubs	Artis, D.J.	CF	4YR JR	Greensboro NC	Liberty
7	223	Yes	MD	Cleveland	Morris, Cody	RHP	4YR JR	Reservoir HS (Columbia)	South Carolina
7	214	No	VA	Minnesota	Winder, Josh	RHP	4YR JR	James River HS (Midlothian)	VMI
8	248	Yes	VA	Chicago Cubs	Mort, Zach	RHP	4YR JR	Cosby HS (Chesterfield)	George Mason
8	247	Yes	VA	New York Yankees	Van Hoose, Connor	RHP	4YR SR	Gonzaga HS (via Alexandria)	Bucknell
9	278	No	VA	Chicago Cubs	Casey, Derek	RHP	4YR SR	Hanover HS (Richmond)	UVA
9	259	No	VA	Cincinnati	McDonald, Andrew	RHP	4YR JR	Cincinnati, OH	Virginia Tech
10	292	No	VA	Arizona	Langhorne, Brett	3B	4YR SR	Lee-Davis HS, Mechanicsville	Carson-Newman College
10	288	No	VA	Cincinnati	Sousa, Bennett	LHP	4YR SR	North Palm Beach, FL	UVA
11	344	Yes	VA	Cleveland	DeGroat, Jack	RHP	4YR JR	Loudoun Valley HS	Liberty
12	367	No	VA	New York Yankees	Pita, Matt	OF	4YR JR	Cosby HS (Chesterfield)	VMI
13	397	Yes	MD	New York Yankees	Pasteur, Isaiah	RHP	4YR SR	Winters Mill HS, Westminster MD	Georgetown
15	449	No	VA	Texas	Simmons, Cameron	RF	4YR JR	Royersford, PA	UVA
16	473	Yes	VA	Oakland	Nightengale, Bryce	RHP	4YR JR	Allegany HS, Cumberland, MD	George Mason
16	474	No	VA	Pittsburgh	Selby, Colin	RHP	4YR JR	Western Branch HS, Chesapeake VA	Randolph-Macon
18	535	No	MD	Baltimore	Zebron, Jake	RHP	HS	Colonial Richardson HS, Federalsburg	NC State (commit)
19	564	Yes	DC	Pittsburgh	Kobos, Will	RHP	4YR JR	Charlotte, NC	George Washington
20	586	Yes	VA	San Francisco	Manning, Jeff	SS	4YR JR	Battlefield HS, Haymarket	Alabama
20	596	No	VA	Toronto	Kapra, Vinny	SS	4YR SR	Melbourne, FL	Richmond
21	632	No	VA	Kansas City	Eaton, Nathan	CF	4YR SO	Thomas Dale HS (Richmond)	VMI
21	644	No	VA	Los Angeles Dodgers	Todd, Tre	CF	4YR JR	New Jersey	Liberty
22	672	No	MD	Houston	Costes, Marty	OF	4YR JR	Archbishop Curley (Baltimore)	UMD
23	698	No	VA	Chicago Cubs	Taylor, Hunter	CF	4YR SR	Nandua HS (DelMarVA peninsula)	South Carolina
25	756	Yes	DC	Colorado	Metz, Robert	2B	4YR 5S	Poolesville	George Washington
26	783	No	VA	St. Louis	Coward, Connor	RHP	4YR JR	Pittsburgh, PA	Virginia Tech
26	813	Yes	VA	Washington	Morse, Colin	RHP (Str)	4YR SR	McLean HS, McLean VA	Shenandoah
28	836	Yes	VA	Toronto	McGuire, Andy	1B	4YR JR	Madison HS, Vienna	Texas
29	877	No	VA	New York Yankees	Bertsch, Jackson	LHP	4YR 5S	?	Liberty
30	906	No	VA	Colorado	Harlow, Colton	LHP	4YR SR	?	JMU
32	955	No	MD	Baltimore	Sandridge, Jayvien	LHP	HS	Mercersburg Academy (Hagerstown)	UCF (commit)
34	1012	No	VA	Arizona	Hess, Zack	RHP (Str)	4YR SO	Liberty Christian Academy (Lynchburg)	LSU
35	1045	Yes	VA	Baltimore	Grammes, Conor	RHP	4YR SO	McLean HS, McLean VA	Xavier
35	1038	Yes	VA	Chicago White Sox	Morgan, Jason	RHP	4YR SR	Chancellor HS (Fredericksburg)	UNC
35	1037	No	VA	Philadelphia	Ross, Austin	RHP (Str)	4YR 5S	?	Radford
38	1130	No	VA	New York Mets	Zona, Nick	SS	HS SR	Hanover HS (Richmond)	JMU (commit)
39	1172	No	VA	Kansas City	Hackenberg, Adam	C	HS SR	Miller School of Albemarle (VA)	Clemson (commit)
40	1205	No	VA	Milwaukee	Clarke, Wes	C	HS SR	Liberty Christian Academy (Lynchburg)	South Carolina (commit)

For your weekend viewing, here’s a quick glance at the CWS Super Regional match-ups with the Nats draft picks still playing

Super Regional Nats Draftee list

Lots of top-end draft picks will be playing this weekend, just ahead of the MLB draft which starts on 6/12/17.  By Super Regional:

• #5 Arkansas vs South Carolina: 10th rounder Carson Shaddy, the Arkansas starting 2B as well as our 15th rounder Evan Lee, a role-player on the team this year.
• Mississippi State vs Vanderbilt: 3rd rounder Reid Schaller and 7th rounder Chandler Day, both working out of Vanderbilt’s rotation.

I’m favoring both Arkansas and Vanderbilt to win these series and continue to Omaha, not good news for these four guys in terms of getting them into a short-season squad.  Going to Omaha probably means we don’t see these guys until July.  At best case (a 2-and-out in Omaha) a player isn’t done playing until June 18th or so, while making the CWS finals extends their season until potentially June 27th.   You’d have to think these guys aren’t even thinking about meeting with the team to negotiate/sign deals until they’re done playing, then need a mental break/vacation before starting.  Heck, we didn’t even see some of our CWS-playing draft picks *play* for us last year (Cole Freeman, our 4th rounder, signed on July 7th after his college team LSU made the CWS finals … then debuted in Hagerstown in April of this  year).

Nonetheless; if you want to eyeball our new players, these are the games to watch.

Another  year in the books, and another 40 guys now potentially part of the Nats organization.  Ok well really more like 32-33 new guys; that’s about how many i’d expect to sign out of this class.

We reviewed the top 10 more in-depth in the previous post since, historically, the most likely eventual MLB impact players are all top-end draft picks.  Lets zip through the rest of the draft and do some quick commentary.

• Round 11: Frankie Bartow, U Miami’s closer.  I like this as an 11th rounder, which in today’s draft system are the first time you can grab someone of note and have a decent shot at them.  Bartow has some career accolades (freshman all-american, finalist for collegiate closer of the year, etc).  Yes he’s a college closer and that’s all he’ll be, but I like this as an 11th rounder.
• Round 12: Graham Lawson, also an 8th/9th inning guy for South Carolina.  Not as accomplished as Bartow, but similar role.
• Round 13: Cody Wilson, a corner OF from FAU.  Good power this year (14 homers), good speed (nearly 20 SBs).  Not a bad 12th rounder.   College Junior though so he has some leverage but it doesn’t seem like he slipped really.
• Round 14: Aaron Fletcher.  a Senior lefty starter from U Houston.  Um, this was Houston’s Friday starter, who pitched a 4-hit, 0 earned run gem in the CWS regional opener to beat Purdue.   Why wasn’t he picked up already?  College numbers look great for a good team in a decent conference, conference pitcher of the year in 2018.  Perhaps its because he doesn’t have massive K/9 numbers.  Nonetheless, I like this pick.
• Round 15: Evan Lee, a two-way draft eligible sophomore player for Arkansas.  Lefty reliever and a corner OF.  This is a weird one; he doesn’t have great numbers on either side of the ball, but he was an absolute beast coming out of HS (all-american on every service, Gatorade player of the state, etc).  I wonder if this is an over slot candidate.
• Round 16: Carson Teel, College Jr lefty starter from Oklahoma State.  Entered the weekend rotation mid-season, gave them 11 starts, including getting the Win over USF in last weekend’s regional.  Decent numbers on the season skewed by one bad outing against West Virginia.  Another value pick.
• Round 17: Ridge Chapman, coll JR mid-week starter for South Carolina; looks like a guy with some inflation in his stats; his BAA is .189 on the year but his ERA is 4.95.   He’s a Juco transfer into South Carolina and his Juco numbers were pretty impressive; perhaps an area scout remembered him from 2017 (when he was drafted late but chose not to sign).
• Round 18: Jacob Rhinesmith, Coll Jr center fielder from Western Kentucky (which, i’d like to point out, has completely ripped off the Nats Curly-W on their uniforms…).  14  homers, 13 SBs as a center fielder?  Another Juco transfer with very gaudy 2017 numbers.  Listed as 6’1″ 195, lefty.  Maybe he sticks in center?
• Round 19: Zach Linginfelter, RHP coll Sophomore from Tennessee.  Was in relief most of the season, then put into the rotation towards the end of the year.  Pitched well in the SEC tourney.
• Round 20: Onix Vega, a Juco C from Broward College.  Gotta have catchers for your short season teams.

Past Round 20, I’ll just note interesting guys; see the table above for the next 20 picks fully.  From here down honestly most guys are just one-and-done short-season players.

• Round 21: Ryan Tapani, 5th year Sr RHP from Creighton.  Looks like Creighton’s Friday starter with pretty gaudy numbers (10-1, 2.38 ERA on the year).  Just named 3rd team All-American by Collegiate Baseball Newspaper.  Son of former MLB player Kevin Tapani, a former pitcher who had more than 350 major league starts in a 13 year career. Nice 21st rounder senior sign.
• Round 26: Colin Morse, a senior RHP from Shenandoah University by way of … McLean HS.  A local kid.  He seemed like a weekend starter for Shenandoah the last three  years, and he had starts in all four years of his career.
• Round 30 Trey Vickers, senior SS from Wichita State.  Basically a four year starter at SS for a good baseball program.  Not flashy, but I like the career accomplishment for a higher profile program.
• Two late round picks (Rounds 34 and 40 picks Tyler Baca and Michael Menhart both seem to be related to Nationals front-office staff (respectively,  Assistant Director of Amateur Scouting Mark Baca and Pitching Coordinator Paul Menhart).
• Round 37 pick Cole Wilcox is an interesting throw-away pick; he was projected as a 1st rounder prior to the draft and was even tied to the Nats in some mocks, but he had a $3M price tag and so once he fell out of the 1st round he was guaranteed to go to school.  He announced his intent to honor his commitment to University of Georgia even before the Nats picked him, where he’ll be a draft eligible sophomore in two years’ time.

Its notable that every single pick the Nats had between rounds 25 and 32 (8 straight rounds) were College seniors.  And then, they ripped of five straight HS draftees from rounds 33-37, including a guy who was projected to go in the first round (Wilcox) in the 37th.   It is almost as if the team got to round 33 and was like, “eh, we’re good, pick a bunch of prep kids as favors to executives or who we have no chance of signing.”

Summary of the Draft class:

• 23 Arms, 18 Position players, which adds up to 41 since we have a 2-way guy in Evan Lee.
• 16 College Juniors (or draft-eligible Sophomores)
• 14 College Seniors with no leverage
• 3 Juco guys
• 7 High Schoolers, 6 of which are basically throw-away picks in the late rounds.

Of the 30 4-year college guys:

• 8 from SEC teams
• 1 from Pac12 teams
• 2 from ACC teams
• 1 from Big10 teams
• 2 from Big12 teams
• 5 from non-major conference but still big-time Baseball programs (FAU, Houston, Sam Houston State, UConn, Wichita State)
• 11 from smaller/non division 1 programs

Not surprisingly, a huge take from the SEC, which proved this year they’re unrivaled in terms of college baseball power.

Geographic Locations of picks:

• 6 from Florida, 4 from Georgia
• 4 from California, another 2 from Arizona
• 4 From Texas, another 2 from Oklahoma and 2 from Arkansas
• 3 from Tennessee, 2 from South Carolina and 2 from Kentucky
• 5 from the Midwest (Iowa, Indiana, Kansas, Nebraska)
• 4 from random remaining states: one each from Connecticut, Wisconsin, Oregon and Virginia.

that’s 36 of the 40 picks from these 5 general areas.  We know that Florida, Georgia and California are the three heaviest areas for providing baseball talent, but normally we see a big focus in the Texas/Oklahoma area with our drafts.  Not this year; one quarter came from the two southeastern states this year.

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Here’s a table with all 40 picks.

Round	Overall	Name	Position	Col/HS	College or Cmtm	State
1	27	Denaburg, Mason	RHP (Str)	HS	Florida	FL
2	65	Cate, Tim	LHP (Str)	Coll Jr	Uconn	CT
3	101	Schaller, Reid	RHP (Rel)	Coll So	Vanderbilt	TN
4	131	Irvin, Jake	RHP (Str)	Coll Jr	Oklahoma	OK
5	161	Canning, Gage	OF	Coll Jr	Arizona State	AZ
6	191	Karp, Andrew	RHP (Str)	Coll Sr	Florida State	FL
7	221	Day, Chandler	RHP (Rel)	Coll Jr	Vanderbilt	TN
8	251	Cropley, Tyler	C	Coll Sr	Iowa	IA
9	281	Driskill, Tanner	RHP (Str)	Coll Sr	Lamar	TX
10	311	Shaddy, Carson	2B	Coll Sr	Arkansas	AR
11	341	Bartow, Frankie	RHP (Rel)	Coll Jr	Miami	FL
12	371	Lawson, Graham	RHP (Rel)	Coll Jr	South Carolina	SC
13	401	Wilson, Cody	OF (Corner)	Coll Jr	Florida Atlantic U	FL
14	431	Fletcher, Aaron	LHP (Str)	Coll Sr	Houston	TX
15	461	Lee, Evan	LHP (rel)/OF	Coll So	Arkansas	AR
16	491	Teel, Carson	LHP (Str)	Coll Jr	Oklahoma State	OK
17	521	Chapman, Ridge	RHP (Str)	Coll Jr	South Carolina	SC
18	551	Rhinesmith, Jacob	OF (CF)	Coll Jr	Western Kentucky	KY
19	581	Linginfelter, Zach	RHP (rel)	Coll So	Tennessee	TN
20	611	Vega, Onix	C	JC J1	Broward College	FL
21	641	Tapani, Ryan	RHP (Str)	Coll Sr	Creighton	NB
22	671	Daily, Cole	SS	Coll Jr	Notre Dame	IN
23	701	Hamilton, Cole	C	JC J1	Linn Benton CC	OR
24	731	Marinconz, Kyle	SS	Coll Jr	Cal Poly San Luis Obispo	CA
25	761	Vann, Chris	LHP (Str)	Coll Sr	Mercer	GA
26	791	Morse, Colin	RHP (Str)	Coll Sr	Shenandoah	VA
27	821	O'Connor, Pablo	2B	Coll Sr	Azusa Pacific University	CA
28	851	Chisolm, Blake	1B	Coll Sr	Sam Houston State	TX
29	881	Pogue, Colton	SS	Coll Sr	Pittsburg State U	KS
30	911	Vickers, Trey	SS	Coll Sr	Wichita State	KS
31	941	Quintana, Jonathan	OF	Coll Sr	Barry U	FL
32	971	Maley, Alec	RHP (Str)	Coll Sr	Kentucky	KY
33	1001	Haney, Jack	C	HS	Cedartown HS	GA
34	1031	Baca, Tyler	OF	HS	The Linfield School (CA)	CA
35	1061	Binelas, Alex	1B	HS	Oak Creek HS (WI)	WI
36	1091	Blessie, Bo	RHP	HS	Robert E Lee HS (TX)	TX
37	1121	Wilcox, Cole	RHP	HS	Heritage HS (GA)	GA
38	1151	Milacki, Bobby	RHP	Coll Jr	Arizona Christian U	AZ
39	1181	Nardi, Andrew	LHP	JC J2	Moorpark Col (CA)	CA
40	1211	Menhart, Michael	RHP	HS	Richmond Hill HS	GA

Here’s a first look at our top 10 draft picks, or where we stand after day 2.

At the top of round 1, the first four picks went pretty much as expected by the major pundits: Mize, Bart, Bohm, Madrigal.  From there we saw surprises, big names drop and some real value for teams later on day one.

How about the Nats picks?

Round	Overall	Name	Position	Col/HS	College or Cmtm	State
1	27	Denaburg, Mason	RHP	HS	Florida	FL
2	65	Cate, Tim	LHP	Coll Jr	Uconn	CT
3	101	Schaller, Reid	RHP	Coll So	Vanderbilt	TN
4	131	Irvin, Jake	RHP	Coll Jr	Oklahoma	OK
5	161	Canning, Gage	OF	Coll Jr	Arizona State	AZ
6	191	Karp, Andrew	RHP	Coll Sr	Florida State	FL
7	221	Day, Chandler	RHP	Coll Jr	Vanderbilt	TN
8	251	Cropley, Tyler	C	Coll Sr	Iowa	IA
9	281	Driskill, Tanner	RHP	Coll Sr	Lamar	TX
10	311	Shaddy, Carson	2B	Coll Sr	U Arkansas Fayetteville	AR

Pick by Pick:  I’ve included draft board rankings if they’re ranked on the main prospect ranking sites I like (see links at bottom for the sources);

• 1st Round/#27 overall: Mason Denaburg, prep RHP from FL high school with Florida commit. (#29 ESPN/Law, #24 MLBpipeline, #16 Fangraphs, #69 BDR, #13 20/80).  Draft Announcement link.  Mid-1st round pick before a bicep tendinitis issue dropped him to the point where most every major draft pundit was predicting the Nats would grab him.   Under-18 Team USA member.   This pick is consistent with the behavior we saw when the team selected Lucas Giolito; high-value guy getting picked about 15 spots lower than he should have.  Look for an over-slot bonus here to buy him out of his Florida committment/make up for his falling on the boards.  I like this pick; his fastball is mid-90s and lively, his mechanics are clean and easy, and his curve breaks very hard.   A nice profile with some good video is at Minorleagueball.com here.  A couple of the draft ranking boards really rated Denaburg, while others had him ranked about where he went.
• 2nd Round/#65 overall: Tim Cate, LHP coll Jr from UConn. (#65 ESPN/Law, #62 MLBpipeline, #80 Fangraphs, #57 BDR, #79 20/80 ).  Draft announcement link.  pick I like: Cate missed time this year with an injury, which again cost him slots.  So the Nats get a guy perhaps a round early, tough to do in the second round.  I think this is a solid pick; he was on Team USA last summer at the same time Denaburg was on the under-18 squad.  The various rankings are all projecting him 2nd to 3rd round, the Nats picked him at #65 so that’s right in-line with projections.
• 3rd Round/#101: Reid Schaller RHP Coll Soph from Vanderbilt (#71 ESPN/Law, #157 MLBPipeline); Vanderbilt reliever red-shirt freshman/sophomore who missed two whole years with TJ surgery … but sits mid 90s, hits 99 and pitched out of Vanderbilt’s bullpen this year.  36Ks in 26 innings, big arm but got hit this year.  Law is bullish on him and I wonder if he’s destined for the rotation or the pen.  As a red-shirt freshman I wonder if he’s signable: doe he want more time at school?  Of course, in today’s world, teams call ahead and basically ask a kid, “will you sign for $X?”  and if they say yes, they get picked.  This definitely isn’t a throw-away pick, but may be destined quickly for the bullpen.
• 4th Round/#131: Jake Irvin, RHP Coll Jr. from Oklahoma (#76 ESPN/Law, #152 MLBPipeline): Oklahoma’s friday starter is huge (6’6″), sits in low 90s and had an excellent junior year.  No injury history, just a solid college guy with a high floor but low ceiling.
• 5th Round/#161: Gage Canning OF (CF) Coll JR. from Arizona State (#106 MLBPipeline).  3-year starter with solid numbers at Arizona State, moved to CF this year from the corner.  Slashed .369/.426/.648 in the Pac-12 (a good but not SEC-level baseball conference).   Lots of Ks though; nearly one a game in college, which would be fine if it was accompanied by more homers.
• 6th Round/#191: Andrew Karp, RHP Coll Sr From Florida State (NR).  Weekend starter for #7 CWS seeded Florida State with decent numbers on the year.  A College senior but I don’t think this is a dumped draft pick; perhaps he goes under-slot somewhat but he looks like a solid pick here.  Not ranked/rated anywhere but you’re not a weekend starter for a top-10 team unless you’re good.
•  7th Round: #221: Chandler Day, RHP Coll Jr from Vanderbilt (NR).  Used kind of as a swing man by Vandy this year (he had 3 starts and 18 appearances), again with decent numbers.   Little else known; not ranked/discussed by the regular scouting circuits.
• 8th Round/#251: Tyler Cropley, C Coll Sr from Iowa.  This one screams senior sign/bonus savings/make sure you get a catcher for your Short-A team.
• 9th Round/#281: Tanner Driskill, RHP  Coll Sr from Lamar University in Texas.  Another low-leverage senior, but he was Lamar’s friday starter for most of the second half of this year.  I’ll take an Ace senior sign/9th rounder any day.
• 10 Round/#311: Carson Shaddy, 2B Coll Sr from U Arkansas-Fayetteville.  Similar to Cropley, a senior sign middle infielder type for your Auburn 2018 squad.

First 10 rounds worth of picks breakdown:

• 7 arms, 3 position player.perhaps
• 9 college (0 juco), 1 high schooler.
• At least 3 money-saving senior sign picks: their 8th, 9th and 10th rounders.
• Heavy influence from major college programs: Florida, two from Vanderbilt, Oklahoma, Arizona State, Florida State.

Conclusion: I liked the first two picks.  There were some more “famous” names available/on the board at #27 that some may have preferred, but the Nats clearly rated Denaburg as a value pick and got good value on him.  I like the Tate pick; a team-USA guy in the second round who has good stuff.  I like the 3rd rounder for value; big arm, not a ton of mileage, and I like getting a big-time team’s friday starter in the 4th round; it reminds me of their A.J. Morris pick a few years back in the same position.  They also picked up a weekend starter for a top-10 ACC team and the friday-ace for a smaller Texas team.

What do you guys think of it?

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Draft Links of Use

1. Mlbpipeline’s Draft Tracker for 2018 for the Nats picks.
2. All 10 rounds of slot bonus figures for 2018
3. BA’s draft database with search options by team, state, etc.
4. Perfect Game to get profiles on more obscure draftees.

Draft Rankings referred to within here:

• ESPN (Keith Law) Top 100 “Big Board” Draft prospect rankings for 2018
• MLBPipeline (Callis & Mayo): top 200 draft prospects
• Fangraphs top 100 draft sortable board for 2018
• BaseballDraftReport’s top 500
• 2080baseball’s top 125.
• Calltothepen/Benjamin Chase top 50 list.
• BaseballAmerica Top 500 Draft Prospects; behind a paywall this year.
• MinorLeagueBall.com Draft Prospect list: didn’t do one this year, just individual profiles.