Nationals Arm Race

Will Zack Hess get drafted or will he go back for another year of college? Photo via 247sports.

Its draft day 2018!

Here’s one of the longer-running drafts in my system; I first created this post in July of 2015 and its now ready for publication just in time for tonight’s draft.  This is a quick guide to possible draft prospects with local ties.  Its kind of a “down” year for DC area prospects … with just a couple of UVA players (who are from elsewhere) getting 1st or 2nd round buzz this year.  This post has turned mostly into a list of “good” local kids, a few of which may get drafted.

The College players are mostly drawn from my 2015 Local High School draft coverage, listing guys who were HS seniors in 2015 who went to 3-year programs and who are now draft eligible.  From that time frame, here’s the 2015 pre-season list and then the Post-Draft/post-signing coverage from 2015.  Pop-up guys plus non-MD/VA native players playing at MD/VA colleges are added as they become serious draft prospects.

Major Local College Draft Prospects for 2018

• Zack Hess, RHP from LSU by way of Liberty Christian Academy; will be a draft-eligible sophomore and is already making noise early in the 2017 season as LSU’s mid-week starter.  2nd team all-american Freshman.  Standout in the 2017 CWS, with announcers gushing over his stuff (95-96 fastball with movement, power curve).  2nd team 2018 collegiate pre-season All American.
• Jake McCarthy, OF UVA.  2nd team 2018 collegiate pre-season All American.
• Daniel Lynch, LHP UVA: has come on strong and put himself into 2nd round consideration.
• Nick Dunn, inf U Maryland: may be a 3rd/4th rounder.

Lesser Local College draft eligibles w/ Local Ties

(Also includes juniors not drafted in 2017, which will all be round 7-10 under-slot fodder, too many to name here).

• UVA: Evan Sperling, Connor Eason, Nathan Eikhoff, Grant Donahue, Cameron Simmons
• U of Maryland: A.J. Lee, Hunter Parsons, Marty Costes
• Liberty: Jack DeGroat (by way of Loudoun Valley HS), D.J. Artis
• Virginia Tech: Nic Enright, Stevie Mangrum, John DeFazio, Paul Hall, Sam Fragale, Tom Stoffel
• South Carolina: Cody Morris, Danny Blair
• Wake Forest: Harvey Logan
• VCU: Brody Cook
• UNC-Asheville: Jordan Carr
• Campbell: James Monaghan
• Towson: Richie Palacios
• George Washington: Isaiah Pasteur

DC/MD/VA Local Prep players for 2018; it is definitely a down year for local prep prospects; we may not see many drafted from the DC area, if any.  Also, my apologies if i’ve got the college commits wrong; these things change all the time and I didn’t have time to look everyone up in perfectgame.org.

• Kody Milton, 1B from Severna Park HS.  Honorable All-Met in 2015 as a freshman.  Evoshield Canes 16-U for 2016.  Early commit to Maryland.  All-Met 2017 as a junior.  Anne-Arundal county POTY 2017 as a junior.  PGNationals 2017.  Evoshield National 17U summer/WWBA 2017.  Baltimore Sun All-Metro player of the year in 2017 as a junior.  3rd team All American ABCA in 2017 as junior.
• Will Schroeder, RHP/SS from Loudoun County HS.  2016 Conference 21B Player of the Year, Region 4A West All-Region first team and 2016 VHSL 4A All-State first team as a sophomore.  Loudoun County POTY for 2016 as a sophomore.  Stars 16U for summer 2016.  All PBR DC/VA team 2016.  WWBA with Stars baseball 2017 as a junior.  Early commit to UNC.  PGNationals 2017.   Stars 17U Red at WWBA 2017.
• Tyler Casagrande, OF from Paul VI via Leesburg; WWBA with Stars baseball 2017 as a junior, Visaa All State Division I in 2017.  2nd-team All-Met as jr in 2017.  Early commit to Arizona.  PGNationals 2017.  Stars 17U Red at WWBA 2017
• Cristian Sanchez, RHP/MIF from Paul VI via Centreville.  WWBA with Stars baseball 2017 as a junior.  Stars 17U Red at WWBA 2017.  Early commit to Alabama, now UVA.
• Wilson Ayers, RHP for Briar Woods.  VHSL All-state 5A as a junior in 2017.  Early commit to Navy.   Stars 17U Red at WWBA 2017.
• Jacob Steinberg RHP St. Johns in DC.  2nd team 2016 American Family All-DC as sophomore.  Early commit to Miami.  Diamond Skills Dodgers at 2016 Marietta/Cobb.  Evoshield Canes National 17-U team summer of 2017.
• Brooks Bengston, OF from Georgetown Prep.  Evoshield 17U National team for WWBA 2017, High Point commit.
• Joe Seidler, RHP Chesapeake AA.  2nd-team All-Met 2016 as a sophomore, 1st team All-Met in 2017 as a junior.  Playing summer ball for Mid-Atlantic Red Sox.  All-Anne-Arundal 2017 as junior.  Baltimore All-Metro 2017 as a junior.
• Carter Bosch, RHP from the Potomac School.  All-Met 2017 as a junior.   All PBR Virginia state finalist as a junior in 2017.  D-bat Elite summer team.
• Trendon Craig, OF from DeMatha.  All-Met 2017 as a junior.  Perfect Game profile has him graduating 2019 though and attending Riverdale Baptist.

• Logan Cooper, OF for Loudoun Valley.  2016 Region 4A West All-Region first team as a sophomore.  2016 VHSL 4A All-State second team as a sophomore.  All Loudoun County 2016.  No PG profile.
• Kyle Novak, 2B/SS from Madison HS in Vienna.  #3 hitter for the 2015 6-A champion Madison as a *freshman*.  First-team 6A Conference 6 and 2nd team All 6-A North region in 2016.  Repeated as 2nd team all 6-A North region as a junior.  Early commit to JMU.  Stars 17U Red at WWBA 2017
• Jake Nielsen: RHP from Madison HS in Vienna.  2017 pitcher of the year and 6-A all region as a junior.  Son of former Madison star from the late 1980s Mike Nielsen, my former some-times teammate.
• Eric Lingenbach, SS from Oakton HS.  2017 6-A all-region as a junior, huge walk-off homer to win the 6A title for Oakton.
• Jose Rivera, SS from Riverdale Baptist.  2nd-team All-Met as jr in 2017.  Stars baseball summer team.
• Corey Rosier, util from Riverdale Baptist.  2nd-team All-Met as jr in 2017.
• Brady Pearre, RHP from Poolesville.    2nd-team All-Met as jr in 2017.
• John Eames OF Langley.  6-A North all-region honorable mention in 2016.  1st team all-region as a Junior.  2nd team all 6A State as a junior in 2017.
• Flynn Hopkins OF Robinson.  First-team 6A Conference 5 and 6-A North all-region honorable mention in 2016.
• Jimmy Baumstark RHP Osbourn Park.   First-team 6A Conference 8 and 6-A North all-region honorable mention in 2016 as a sophomore.
• Blaze O’Saben, SS Fauquier: A first-team 4A Conference 22 selection in 2016 as a sophomore
• Justin Taylor, SS Flint Hill.  First team all-VISAA Division I in 2016 as a sophomore.
• Matt Thomas, 3B Lake Braddock: Second-team 6A Conference 7 selection in 2016 as a sophomore.
• Jack Weeks. Paul VI Catholic (formerly of Herndon HS).  Starter for VISAA-I state finalist in 2016 as a sophomore.

Extended DC/MD/VA Prep players (outside DC Area) on the radar.

• Adam Hackenberg, C from the Miller School (was Fork Union HS).  First team all-VISAA Division I in 2016 as a sophomore.  All PBR DC/VA team 2016.  #50 on Keith Law’s top 100 draft prospects.  Committed to Clemson.
• Ryan Archibald 3B from John Carroll HS in Churchville.  PGNationals 2017.  Evoshields 17U National summer team for WWBA 2017.  Early commit to UMaryland, now committed to Arizona.  Gatorade MD player of the year 2018.
• Cade Huntgate, RHP/SS for Abingdon.  Evoshield Canes 16-U 2016, Committed to Florida State.  Gatorade VA player of the year 2018.
• Jack Dragum, RHP Hanover (Richmond).  Starter as a sophomore on great 2016 team.  Evoshield Canes 16-U 2016. Early commit to UVA.  Evoshield 17U team at 2016 Marietta/Cobb.  All-Richmond 2017 as junior.  Evoshield National 17-U summer 2017.
• Wesley Clarke, C with Liberty Christian Academy.  2016 Region 4A West All-Region second team as a sophomore.  All PBR DC/VA team 2016.  Evoshield National 17U team for WWBA 2017.  South Carolina commit.
• Stephen Pelli, RHP for St. Marys in Arnold, Maryland.  Evoshield Canes 16-U 2016. Evoshield National 17U  for WWBA 2017.  PGNationals 2017.  Early commit to Virginia Tech, now North Carolina.
• Matt Sykes, LHP/OF from the Miller School in Richmond.   Evoshields 17U National summer team for WWBA 2017.
• Tevin Tucker,  SS from Prince George  HS in Prince George VA.  Virginia Cardinals 16-U for 2016.  Second team VHSL all 5A in 2016 as a sophomore.  All-Richmond 2017 as junior.  Early WVU commit.
• Nick Zona, SS from Hanover in  Mechanicsburg/Richmond.  At Area Code Games 2017, the SOLE DC/MD/VA kid there.  Early commit to JMU.

• Clay Lloyd, C with Halifax.  VHSL 1st team all State 5A as a junior.
• Zach Thomas SS with Eastern View HS:  VHSL 1st team all State 4A as a junior.
• Kyle Horton, OF with Liberty Christian Academy.  Starter as a sophomore on great 2016 team.   PGNationals 2017.  Evoshield Canes National 17U team for WWBA 2017: South Carolina commit, now Charleston Southern
• Tristan McDonough, RHP from Decatur HS.  PGNationals 2017.  Early commit to Miami??
• Connor Butler, 2B/SS from Western Branch.  All 6A South in 2017 as a junior.  Tidewater Orioles summer team.  All 6A Virginia State in 2017 as a junior.
• Jon Sawyer, RHP /OF for Atlantic Shores Christian.  All Tidewater 2017 as junior, early commit to ODU.

• Cam Nolet, RHP from St. Marys.  Anne-Arundal county POTY 2017 as a junior.
• Austin Gault, OF Poquoson, Soph.  3-A East all-region 1st team in 2016.
• Gage Williams, RHP Nansemond River.  Starter on excellent 2016 team as a sophomore.
• Cory O’Shea, ? position on Mills Godwin.  Starter on excellent 2016 team as a sophomore.
• Scott McDonough: ? position on Mills Godwin.  Starter on excellent 2016 team as a sophomore.
• John Kish, RHP for Cosby.  Starter on excellent 2016 team as a sophomore.
• Ethan Williams, C for Cosby.  Starter on excellent 2016 team as a sophomore.
• Tyler Bailey, INF/RHP for Thomas Dale in Chester (Richmond), VA.  Virginia Cardinals 16-U for 2016.
• Tucker Bushby, OF/LHP for James River in Midlothian (Richmond), VA.  Virginia Cardinals 16-U for 2016.
• Wes Glass, 1b/LHP for Riverside HS in Leesburg VA.  Virginia Cardinals 16-U for 2016.
• Michael Peterson, OF from Prince George  HS in Prince George VA.  Virginia Cardinals 16-U for 2016.
• Scooter Ray, C Manchester HS in Chesterfield, VA.  Virginia Cardinals 16-U for 2016.
• Gregory Ryan, SS Benedictine HS in North Chesterfield, VA.  Virginia Cardinals 16-U for 2016.  Early commit to Pittsburgh.
• Tomas Sanchez, OF from Dinwiddie.  2016 VHSL 4A All-State first team as a sophomore.  All PBR DC/VA team 2016.
• Cole Harness, 1B from Eastside HS.  First team VHSL all 1A in 2016 as a sophomore.
• Jacob Council, OF from Windsor HS.  First team VHSL all 1A in 2016 as a sophomore.
• Tanner Bailey, OF from Fort Chiswall HS.  First team VHSL all 1A in 2016 as a sophomore.
• Jonathan Walton, 1B from Prince George HS.  First team VHSL all 5A in 2016 as a sophomore.
• Thomas Francisco, 2b from Abington HS.   First team VHSL all 3A West Region and all 3-A state in 2016 as a sophomore.  All PBR DC/VA team 2016.
• Nic Kent, INF, St. Anne’s-Belfield (Charlottesville) . American Family 2016 2nd team All-Virginia as a sophomore.
• Chance Davis, Inf Fort Chiswell, All PBR DC/VA team 2016.
• Kris Artis, RHP from Grandby HS in Norfolk. All 6A South in 2017 as a junior, 2nd team All 6A State in 2017.  Early commit to ODU.
• Ty Hanchy, C from Grandby HS in Norfolk.  2nd team All 6A South in 2017 as a junior.
• Xavier Anderson, OF from Grandby HS in Norfolk.  2nd team All 6A South in 2017 as a junior.
• Shane Stinard, OF from Cox HS in Va Beach.  2nd team All 6A South in 2017 as a junior.
• Andrew Melnyk, LHP from Kellam HS in Va Beach.   2nd team All 6A South in 2017 as a junior.
• Skylar Petry, RHP from James RIver HS in Richmond.   2nd team All 6A South in 2017 as a junior.
• Ethan Williams, C from Cosby HS in Moseley/Richmond.   2nd team All 6A South in 2017 as a junior.  Evoshields Mid-Atlantic summer team.
• James Deloatch, OF from Grandby HS in Norfolk.  2nd team All 6A South in 2017 as a junior.
• Pearce Bucher, 3B from Sherando.  2nd team all VHSL 4A as a junior in 2017.
• Maxwell Costes, Inf from Gilman.  Baltimore All-Metro 2017 as a junior.
• A.J. Holcomb, OF from Loyola-Blakefield.  Baltimore All-Metro 2017 as a junior, early commit to Va Tech.
• Austin Koehn, RHP from Patterson Mill.  Baltimore All-Metro 2017 as a junior.
• J.P. Murphy, OF from Calvert hall.  Baltimore All-Metro 2017 as a junior, early commit to High Point.

Sources used

• All-Region teams in 2016, looking for Sophomores (rare); see 2016 All-area post for all 2016 all-region team links.
• All-Region teams for 2017, looking for Juniors: see all 2017 post-season honor links at NovaBaseballMagazine.com.
• 2016 Evoshield 16-U roster, looking for DC/MD/VA guys.
• 2016 Virginia Cardinals 16-U roster, looking for featured guys at PBR.
• VHSL All-State teams for 2016, looking for sophomores.
• NovaBaseballMagazine’s Nova Nine for 2016, specifically their all Sophomore list for Northern Virginia.
• 2016 WWBA rosters looking for 2018 grads (Juniors at the time)
• D1baseball’s way too early 2018 draft preview for Collegiate players.
• 2017 WP All-Met team looking for juniors.
• 2017 All Anne-Arundel county, looking for juniors.
• 2017 Richmond times Dispatch all-Metro team looking for Juniors.
• VHSL All-State players of the Year for 2017, looking for juniors.
• PG Nationals Jupiter rosters, looking for 2018 class
• Evoshield Canes National 17-U roster for summer 2017/WWBA event (which made the finals and won the whole event)
• Evoshield Canes 17u American Roster for summer 2017/WWBA event (which made semis before losing to the Canes 17u National team)
• Stars 17u Red roster/WWBA team roster.   Went undefeated and was #3 seed in playoffs but upset round of 64.
• Baltimore Sun All-Metro 2017 team.
• USA Baseball TOS rosters (no locals)
• Area Code Games 2017 rosters
• Collegiate Baseball Newspaper 2018 pre-season All Americans
• PrepBaseballReport Virginia HS 2018 previews

Casey Mize has been the consensus 1-1 for 2018 for most of the season. Photo d1baseball.com

Mock Draft mania!  Since the draft is Monday i’ll publish this now to talk about it and talk about who we’d like to see the Nats pick.  I’ll keep adding mocks as they get published and update this post all the way til gametime.

First, here’s a preview of the names we’re talking about for the upper end of the first round.  This is an evolving list, with names who were prominently mentioned last fall falling by the way-side and helium guys rising up.  At publication, i’ve separated those who have fallen as indicated below.

College Upper 1st round names in the mix

• Casey Mize RHP, Auburn. 2017 USA Nat’l team star, quickly rising to be the consensus 1-1 pick in 2018.
• Joey Bart, C, Georgia Tech.  Helium candidate in spring 2018
• Alec Bohm, 3B Wichita State.  Helium guy with strong 2018.
• Brady Singer RHP, Florida. Dominant in 2016 CWS. 2017 USA Nat’l team.
• Nick Madrigal 2B, Oregon State: Golden spikes semi-finalist 2017 as sophomore. All-american as Soph. 2017 USA Nat’l team.
• Jonathan India, 3B, Florida. another Helium guy in spring 2018; was always solid but now hitting .400 in the SEC

College Candidates who have fallen to mid-1st round status: basically i’d be happy with nearly any pick on this list dropping to the Nats at #27.

• Logan Gilbert, RHP Stetson; top Cape Code league prospect 2017
• Ryan Rolison, LHP from Ole Miss; #1 pitching prospect from Cape 2017 league.
• Travis Swaggerty, CF, South Alabama; has not hit well in 2018, lowering stock slightly.
• Tristan Beck, RHP Stanford.  solid starter who missed significant time with back injury.
• Sean Hjelle, RHP Kentucky: huge guy (6’11”) who doesn’t throw hard, but it appears so b/c of his reach.
• Griffin Conine OF, Duke. Jeff Conine‘s son. Exploded in Cape Cod League 2017, All-Cape 2017, named top prospect, but has fallen precipitously in 2018
• Luken Baker, 1B TCU; more “famous” than draft prospect thanks to lack of defensive value.  Suffered broke leg Apr 2018 after an arm injury in 2017, lowering stock.
• Seth Beer, 1B Clemson: another “famous” name in the draft; his OBP skills may push him to 1st round.
• Jackson Kowar, RHP Florida; U-Florida’s saturday starter who has scuffled a bit this spring but still should be a 1st rounder.

High School

• Carter Stewart, RHP, Eau Gallie HS, Melbourne, FL.  Mississippi State commit, highest spin rate ever recorded?  helium guy spring 2018, jumping up over many names to be first prep player taken.
• Matt Liberatore LHP, Mountain Ridge (AZ) (Arizona commit).  18U team, Gold Medal game starter, but has had inconsistent spring 2018, not consistently showing 96-97.
• Jared Kelenic OF, Waukesha (WI) (Louisville commit). 18U team.  Considered best prep hit tool in the class.
• Nolan Gorman, 3B Sandra Day O’conner HS (AZ): (Arizona commit).  18U team.  best power bat in the class, struggling spring 2018 b/c of being walked all the time.
• Cole Winn, RHP, Orange Lutheran HS (CA).  Mississippi State commit, helium guy spring 2018.

High School guys whose stock has fallen:

• Brice Turang SS, Santiago (CA) (LSU commit). 18U team.  Questions on hit took spring 2018; polarizing player among scouts.
• Ethan Hankins RHP, Forsyth Central (GA): (Vanderbilt commit). 18U team.  Shoulder injury has lowered his stock.
• Kumar Rocker RHP, North Oconee (GA) (Vanderbilt commit). 18U team.  Has lost velocity this spring, lowering his stock.
• Nander de Sedas, SS, Montverde FL (Florida State commit): great 2017 summer.

Here’s the Mock draft collection.  I’ve generally listed their top-5 and then who they project the Nats to take at #27 (if they project out that far).  I got the first Mock draft link here just after the end of the 2017 season, when the BA guys did a mock once we knew the draft order.  I’ll continue to add in mocks as they get published post-posting up until the draft.

• Baseball America (John Manuel) 2018 Mock Draft v1.0 dated 10/6/17: Singer, Hankins, Turang, de Sedas, Gorman.  Nats taking prep RHP Slade Cecconi from a FL HS who can hit 97 with 3 pitches.
• Baseball America (Carlos Collazo) 2018 Mock Draft v1.0 dated 5/11/18: (behind a pay wall)
• Baseball America (Carlos Collazo) 2018 Mock Draft v2.0 dated 5/18/18: (behind a pay wall)
• Baseball Draft Report (Rob Ozga) 2018 Mock Draft v1.0 dated 10/7/17: Gilbert, Madrigal, Singer, Hankins, Rolison.  Nats taking LHP Konnor Pilkington from Mississippi State, a 2017 USA Nat’l team member.
• MLBPipeline (Jim Callis) 2018 Early Mock Draft dated 12/5/17: Singer, Hankins, Liberatore, de Sedas, Turang.  Only projected top 10 so no Nats pick.
• MLBPipeline (Jim Callis) 2018 Mock Draft dated 5/11/18: Mize, Bart, Bohm, Madrigal, Singer.   Nats taking prep RHP Cole Wilcox, RHP, Heritage HS (Ringgold, Ga.)
• MLBPipeline (Jim Callis) 2018 Mock Draft dated 5/24/18: Mize, Bart, Bohm, Singer, Madrigal.   Has Nats on Mason Denaburg, a prep RHP from Florida (with a Florida commit) who is someone i hadn’t heard of prior to seeing it in print  here.  He was projected higher until shut down with biceps tendinitis; this could be a classic Nats move of taking a top-10 talent later in the 1st thanks to a slight injury issue.
• MLBPipeline (Jim Callis) 2018 Final Mock Draft dated 6/4/18: Mize, Bart, Madrigal, Singer, India.  Still has Nats on Denaburg.
• MLBPipeline (Jonathan Mayo): 2018 Early Mock Draft dated 12/5/17:  Singer, de Sedas, Hankins, Kowar, Madrigal.  Only projected top 10 so no Nats pick.
• MLBPipeline (Jonathan Mayo): 2018 Mock Draft projection dated 4/30/18:  Mize, Singer, Madrigal, Bohm, Stewart.  has Nats on Xavier Edwards, SS, North Broward Prep (Coconut Creek, Fla.), an undersized but good prospect with a strong Vanderbilt commitment.
• MLBPipeline (Jonathan Mayo): 2018 Mock Draft projection dated 5/17/18:  Mize, Bart, Bohm, Singer, Madrigal.  Has Nats on Denaburg.
• MLBPipeline (Jonathan Mayo): 2018 Mock Draft projection dated 5/31/18:  Mize, Bart, Madrigal, Singer, India.  Nats again on Denaburg.
• MLBPipeline (Jonathan Mayo) 2018 Final Mock Draft dated 6/4/18: Mize, Bart, Madrigal, Singer, India.  now has Nats on Xavier Edwards, a prep SS from Florida.
• Fangraphs (Eric Longenhagen/Kiley McDaniel): 2018 Mock Draft v1.0 dated 4/19/18: Mize, Bohm, Madrigal, Swaggerty, Kelenic.  Only projected top 10, but notes that Washington wants a “quick moving” college pitcher (just like every year) and is tied to either Tristan Beck or Sean Hjelle.
• Fangraphs (Eric Longenhagen/Kiley McDaniel): 2018 Mock Draft v2.0 dated 5/15/18: Mize, Bart, Bohn, Madrigal, Singer.  Also has Nats on Denaburg.
• Fangraphs (Eric Longenhagen/Kiley McDaniel): 2018 Mock Draft v3.0 dated 6/1/18: Mize, Bart, Bohm, Singer, Madrigal.  Now has Nats on Wilcox.
• Seedlings to the Stars/Calltothepen.com (Benjamin Chase) Mock draft v1.0 4/30/18: Mize, Bohm, Libratadore, Kelenic, Madrigal.  Has the Nats on Mike Vasil, a HS RHP pitcher from a Boston, MA high school  (with a commit to UVA/Virginia) with some possible arm issues so could be following their pattern of buying low in injured guys.
• Seedlings to the Stars/Calltothepen.com (Benjamin Chase) Mock draft v2.0 5/7/18: Mize, Madrigal, Bohm, Winn, Libratadore.  Has Nats on de Sedas, which would fit the Nats’ predilection of taking “famous” names.
• Seedlings to the Stars/Calltothepen.com (Benjamin Chase) Mock draft v3.0 5/15/18: Mize, Bart, India, Bohm, Singer.  Also has Nats on Denaburg.
• Seedlings to the Stars/Calltothepen.com (Benjamin Chase) Mock draft v4.0 5/21/18: Mize, Bart, Bohm, Madrigal, Singer.   Has Nats now on Wilcox instead of Denaburg now.
• Seedlings to the Stars/Calltothepen.com (Benjamin Chase) Mock draft v5.1 5/28/18: Mize, Bart, Bohm, Singer, Madrigal.  Has Nats back on Denaburg.
• Seedlings to the Stars/Calltothepen.com (Benjamin Chase) Mock draft v6.2 6/4/18: Mize, Bart, Bohm, Singer, Madrigal.  Same top 5 as last few iterations.  Has Nats back on Wilcox.
• ESPN/Keith Law Mock draft v1.0 5/2/18: Mize, Singer, Bohm, Bart, Madrigal.  Has the Nats taking a prep RHP named J.T. Ginn from Mississippi, or perhaps taking one of the more “famous” prep arms if they fall (Hankins, Turang).
• ESPN/Keith Law Mock draft v2.0 5/17/18: Mize, Bart, Bohm, Madrigal, Singer.  Has the Nats on Rocker, or perhaps one of the other prep guys who are “famous” but who are falling this spring, looking for value.
• ESPN/Keith Law Mock draft v3.0 5/31/18: Mize, Winn, Bart, Singer, Madrigal.  Has the Nats on Denaburg.
• ESPN/Keith Law Mock draft v4.0 6/4/18: Bart, Winn, Mize, Singer, Madrigal.  Still has the Nats on Denaburg.
• Sporting News Mock Draft v1.0 5/17/18: Mize, Libratadore, Singer, Madrigal, Stewart.  Has the Nats taking Seth Beer, which I wouldn’t be totally against.
• TheBigLead.com (Ryan Phillips) Mock Draft v1.0 5/17/18: Mize, Bart, Bohm, Madrigal, Singer (same as Law).  Only projects top 10, so no Nats pick.
• TheBigLead.com (Ryan Phillips) Mock Draft v2.0 5/30/18: Mize, Bart, Bohm, Madrigal, Singer (same as his first mock).  Has Nats on Wilcox.
• TheBigLead.com (Ryan Phillips) Mock Draft v3.0 6/3/18: Mize, Bart, Bohm, Madrigal, Singer (same as his first two mocks).  Has Nats on Ethan Hankins now.
• PerfectGame.org (Brian Sakowski) Mock Draft v1.0: 4/20/18: Mize, Kelenic, Madrigal, McClanahan, Hankins.  has Nats on Grayson Rodriguez, prep RHP from Texas HS.
• PerfectGame.org (Brian Sakowski) Mock Draft v2.0: 5/10/18: Mize, Stewart, Bohm, Singer, Madrigal.  Nats on Kumar Rocker as well; I’d love this pick if it happened.
• PerfectGame.org (Brian Sakowski) Mock Draft v3.0 5/24/18: Mize, Bart, Bohm, Madrigal, Singer.  Nats on Jackson Kowar, RHP weekend starter for Florida.  Um, if Kowar makes it here, i’d be ecstatic and it’d be a great pick.
• PerfectGame.org (Brian Sakowski) Mock Draft v4.0 6/4/18: Mize, Bart, Bohm, Singer, Madrigal.  Nats on Denaburg.
• Prospect Digest (Joseph Werner) Mock Draft 6/4/18: Mize, Liberatore, Madrigal, McClanahan, Stewart.  Nats picking Stanford’s Tristan Beck.

Mock draft posters from 2017 who didn’t seem to do one this year.:

• D1Baseball (Frankie Piliere)
• HeroSports.com (Chris Crawford/Jason Crawford)
• MinorleagueBall.com (John Sickels)
• SI.com (Jay Jaffe), now with Fangraphs, so probably not doing prospect work anymore.
• CBSsports (Mike Axisa)

Todd Boss’ Mock draft top-5 prediction?

My top 5: Mize, Bart, Bohm, Singer, Madrigal.   It seems like most all the pundits have arrived at this as a top 5 and it seems to make sense.

ACTUAL DRAFT Results (added after the draft): top 5 went Mize, Bart, Bohm, Madrigal, India.  First four no surprise … India at #5 a surprise.  So was Kyler Murray at #9 to Oakland … that came out of nowhere.

Who are the Nats going to take at #27:  Mason Denaburg

Its really, really difficult to project to the 27th pick; you just have no idea who will be there.  Just consider the 2011 draft; the Nats sat at the #6 spot and figured they’d have zero shot at Anthony Rendon, who for most of his college career was considered a 1-1 guy.  Suddenly Rendon has a slight injury, the first few teams pass on him … and he falls into the Nat’s lap.

Historically, Mike Rizzo drafts college guys.  And historically, he drafts college arms up high.  However, most of the mocks above have the Nats taking prep arms in the first.

The clear “word on the street” out of the Nats camp this year is prep arm.  Why?  I have no idea.  How many high school arms have you ever seen Mike Rizzo draft at the top of the draft?  How about in the top 10 rounds altogether?   I’ll give you the answer to the latter question: Three: Rizzo has drafted exactly three prep arms in the top 10 rounds in the entirety of his Nats career, dating to 2009.  Jesus Luzardo, Lucas Giolito and A.J. Cole.   That’s it.  Cole was under the prior bonus rules, when they threw 1st round money at him in the 4th.  Giolito was a case where he dropped precipitously thanks to an arm injury and the Nats snagged him mid 1st (which kind of fits the Denaburg projection this year) … and Luzardo was a 3rd rounder with 1st round talent but a TJ surgery on his resume who they got great value on.  So why would anyone think Rizzo is going to pick a prep arm unless its a Giolito situation where a top-5 projected guy suddenly falls?

Normally, i’d firmly in the camp that the Nats will follow their typical pattern here for later 1st round picks: college arm.  I like the mocks that project guys like Beck or Hjelle, or any one of several solid college arms who might drop down because of a crummy regional performance.  Ole Miss’ Ryan Rolison fits the bill here as a guy who might be available at 27, as does Jackson Kowar.

What about one of the famous “bats” in this draft?  Namely, Seth Beer or Luken Baker or Griffen Conine?  All seem like no-position/defensive liability sluggers, which may end up being tweeners between Late 1st round and mid 2nd round … so they’d be reaches for the Nats in the 1st but gone by our 2nd round pick.

Actual Nats #27 Pick (added after the draft): Mason Denaburg.  For the second year in a row, the Nats tip their hand and have their first round pick predicted by every major pundit.

SF is in the lead to have first crack at top prep SS Brice Turang. Photo via baseball America

About this time, I like to look at the bottom of the standings to see who’s going to have the first crack at talent in next year’s Rule-4 amateur draft.

With two weeks left (roughly 13-15 games), here’s how things stand.  There seem to be 4 contenders for the title (records as of saturday morning 9/16/17).

1. San Francisco, 57-92.  what a season for the Giants, going from presumed contenders to currently owning the worst record in the majors.  They’ve lost 15 of their last 20 and might not be catchable for the #1 pick.  Pretty impressive for the team with the 5th highest opening day payroll.
2. Philadelphia: 57-90: we knew they’d be bad and so did they … but they’ve played .500 ball for the last month to take themselves out of the running for their 2nd straight #1 overall pick.  They seem likely to end up 3rd or 4th.
3. Chicago White Sox: 59-88: another team that clearly waived the white flag this past off-season, but which stocked up so heavily on top-end prospects that their possible end of 2018 rotation (Carlos Rodon, Reynaldo Lopez, Lucas Giolito, Carson Fulmer and Michael Kopech is a murder’s row of 1st round/highly rated prospects.  They could return to glory and fast, especially with another year of top draft picks.  They’ve rebounded as of late though and are playing themselves out of the running for #1 overall.
4. Detroit: 61-86: keep an eye on the Tigers though, who have won just 8 of their last 30 and have (finally) admitted to themselves they need to sell, moving face of the franchise Justin Verlander and probably selling off everything they can this coming off-season.  Detroit by the way had the 2nd hghest payroll on opeing day only behind the Dodgers.  Now that’s hard to do.
5. New York Mets: 63-84: they’re 6 games out of the “lead” but are in free fall, losing 20 of their last 30 and being led to the finish line by a manager that should be canned for incompetence this off-season.

Next few teams: As, Reds and Padres, all of whom are playing .500 ball right now and seem unlikely to get into the top 5.

End of year prediction: SF, Detroit, Mets, Philly, White Sox.

So who’s in the “race” for #1 overall next summer?  Its really early, and these rankings drastically change with spring performances, but here’s some of the top names to keep in mind:

College:

• Brady Singer RHP, Florida. Dominant in 2016 CWS. 2017 USA Nat’l team.
• Casey Mize RHP, Auburn. 2017 USA Nat’l team star.
• Nick Madrigal 2B, Oregon State: Golden spikes semi-finalist 2017 as sophomore. All-american as Soph. 2017 USA Nat’l team.
• Seth Beer 1B/DH Clemson: monster freshman year in 2016: Dick Howser award, Golden spikes finalist. 2017 USA Nat’l team.
• Griffin Conine OF, Duke. Jeff Conine‘s son. Exploded in Cape Cod League 2017, All-Cape 2017, named top prospect
• Jeremey Eierman SS, Missouri State; All-American 1st/2nd team 2017 as sophomore. 2017 USA Nat’l team invitee.

High School

• Kumar Rocker RHP, North Oconee (GA) (Vanderbilt commit). 18U team.
• Brice Turang SS, Santiago (CA) (LSU commit). 18U team.
• Ethan Hankins RHP, Forsyth Central (GA): (Vanderbilt commit). 18U team.
• Jared Kelenic OF, Waukesha (WI) (Louisville commit). 18U team.

If the draft was tomorrow, it’d probaby go Turang, Singer, Rocker at the top.

Robles is a beatt. Photo via milb.com

Now is about the time when you start to see a few of the more enterprising pundits out there releasing Mid-season top X lists.  Most guys just do minors-wide updates:

• MLBPipeline.com Midseason top 100
• Call to the Pen /Benjamin Chase mid-season top 50
• ESPN/Keith Law mid-season top 50
• Baseball America Mid-season top 100
• Baseball Prospectus/Jeffrey Paternostro Mid-season 2017 top 50

MLBPipeline.com though has a fully updated Nats system top 30, including the 2017 draft prospects, and the list is kind of telling.  Lets dive into it, looking at some of the new guys, the guys who are off the list, the movers and the fallers.

(Note: for reference, here’s my master list of Nats prospect rankings, updated to this MLBpipeline list and updated for player movement even up to the most recent trades).

• The Top 4 hasn’t changed: Victor Robles, Juan Soto, Erick Fedde and Carter Kieboom remain our top 4 prospects, as they have been ever since we parted ways with Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez (more on them later).  Now, whether this will still be the case in a week’s time, when the trade deadline has passed, remains to be seen.  Robles remains the #1 guy, the guy who I think the team is looking at to have a “passing of the torch” moment once Bryce Harper departs town, and remains an incredible bargain in terms of bonus-dollars-versus-prospect status ($225k bonus in 2014).  Soto has streaked up the ranks: prior to the beginning of the 2016 season he wasn’t even in the top 30 lists; now he’s pushing Robles at the top.
• Six of our Top 30 are 2017 draftees: This was the point that surprised me, looking at the list.  MLB’s #5, 6, 16, 19, 22 and 24th ranked players have played for about a month now in our low minors.  #5 and #6 (the ones that are somewhat meaningful) are of course our top two drafted arms Seth Romero and Wil Crowe.  The reason there’s so much room for adding new draftees though is…
• We’ve lost a TON of prospects in the last 12 months: Just looking at my master list, here’s the departures from prospect lists lately:
  • Graduated: Grace, Glover, Cole, Goodwin this year, Turner last year
  • Traded:  Neuse, Luzardo this year, Giolito, Lopez, Dunning, Hearn, Schrock, Avila last year or last off-season.  Dunning in particular was in our system so shortly that he never made it to a ranking list.

That’s 13 guys, some of whom were pretty prominently ranked and all of whom were mentioned here or there on various lists.

Now, how about the guys that are left?  Here’s some guys who are really shooting up, rankings wise (and yes, some of their rise is due to the surgical removal of so many guys above them … nonetheless, these guys have all played well):

• Juan Soto: as mentioned above; MLB has him #2 now.  A year ago he was in the 15-17 range, and prior to 2016 season he was a nobody, outside the top 30.
• Yasel Antuna: our big-money 2016 IFA signing is not disappointing; he had no playing time this time last year and was ranked in the 19-25 range just based on his bonus.  Now?  He’s hitting .300 as a 17-yr old in the GCL with nearly a .40o OBP (as of this writing).
• Daniel Johnson: recently promoted and it was well earned: Johnson hit 17 homers in the first half in Hagerstown (not an easy place to hit for power), made the all-star team, and got promoted.  MLB.com has him 10th right now; they had him #29th in April.
• Blake Perkins: It looks like he’s finally getting the hang of switch hitting, and his OPS in Low-A is 200 points higher than it was last year.  He has generally been in the 16-20 range of prospects; now he’s at #11.
• McKenzie Mills: the lefty Low-A starter has exploded this year; he sits at 12-2 with more than a K/inning for Hagerstown, made the All-Star team and seems ready for a promotion.  MLB has him at #18 in our system; he’s never even been an honorable mention before.
• Raudy Read: he’s stepped it up a bit, hitting for some power and holding his slash line to respectable levels as a 23-yr old in AA (and on the 40-man roster).
• Taylor Gushue: also a 23-yr old catcher, with an OPS above .820 one level below Read in High-A.  Never before ranked (at least for us), MLB.com has him 25th now.  I could see these two catchers pushing each other and pushing the likes of Severino and Lobaton off the 40-man.

And here’s some guys whose prospect value has taken a nosedive this year:

• Pedro Severino: speaking of catcher depth; Severino has seen his stats take a nose dive as he repeats AAA; his 1.048 OPS figure for the Nats last September seems like a mirage.   He’s still on the 40-man, and his reputation is more about his defense than his offense, but that’s still just a backup catcher ceiling.
• Drew Ward: Year after year, Ward’s prospect value drops.  He used to be top 10; now he’s fallen to the 20-range.  He’s repeating AA and hitting just .224; he’ll be rule-5 eligible this coming off-season but I can’t see saving him with a roster spot right now.  If he doesn’t turn it around, he’ll end up in org-guy territory soon.
• Austin Voth: perhaps the most curious of our falling prospects.  He was in the 6-7 range just a year and a half ago, then finished a full strong season in AAA.  2017?  He’s struggled, gotten demoted, and struggled further.
• Jakson Reetz: he’s now pushed down to 26th, after routinely hanging out in the 10-15 range after being such a high draft pick.  He’s basically been socially promoted by virtue of his bonus figure, having never hit above .230 outside of complex ball.  He’s now backing up a guy in Gushue who’s 2 years older, but also has an OPS that’s 200 points better.
• Anderson Franco: what happened here?  He was solid in rookie ball … and barely at the mendoza line in full season ball.  Another guy routinely given top 10 rankings early on; he’s now just hanging on ranked #27 by MLB.
• Osvaldo Abreu: he’s moved up a level a year, now playing in AA, but his numbers have had corresponding declines with each promotion.  He wasn’t ever considered a major prospect, but now he’s barely considered a minor one.
• Telmito Agustin: he couldn’t hack it in High-A and was demoted back to Low-A this year.  He’s only 20, so he has time, but he’s basically out of the prospect discussions for now.
• Nick Banks & Rhett Wisemann: both big-time college program upper-end draft picks, both scuffling professionally.  Neither now ranked by MLB whereas both had cracks at the top 10 of our prospect lists at some point.
• Joan Baez: you can’t teach velocity right?  Well for Potomac this year Baez had more walks than Ks … and more walks than innings pitched.  He’s now a 22-yr old in GCL beating up on a bunch of kids, hoping to get his mojo back.
• Matt Skole: he’s still a “prospect” remember?  He’s 27, hitting .235 in AAA, and has yet to be called up even though the team is so short on hitters that they called up Severino this past week.  I put Skole in here just to see if MartyC is still reading.

And now for some predictions related to our prospects:

• Fedde is getting called up and soon, and will exhaust his rookie eligibility before the season is over.  The team can’t let Edwin Jackson post 5+ ERAs like he’s been doing for the last few seasons.
• Robles, Soto, Kieboom stay put to keep our top 4 in tact at the trade deadline.
• I can see the team cashing in some lesser prospects in trade though, perhaps guys ranked in the 8-15 range.  Selling high on Daniel Johnson perhaps, or flipping some C depth from Severino, Read, Gushue, Kieboom.
• #1 prospect next year: still Robles; he’s not debuting until at least the super-2 deadline next year.
• # prospect once Robles graduates: It’ll be Soto.  For reasons explained in the next bullet point…
• How quickly will Romero get to the Majors?  Pretty quickly.  I could see him ending next year in AA, then pushing for a spot in the 2019 staff.  He won’t be in the minors long enough to get ranked above Soto.  That is unless he turns out to continue his knuckle-headedness… at which point we’ll all write many comments about how we “told you so” for drafting him.

Did I miss anyone?

PS: fun trivia; there have only been eleven (11) different players to hold the title as “#1 Washington Nationals prospect” since Nov 2004.   I’ll bet you can’t name them all.

Crowe signed for exactly slot. Photo via d1baseball.com

A quick summary of the Nats 2017 draft, now that the signing deadline has passed.

Here’s a link to my tracking XLS to show my work.  It has round, overall, slot figures, known bonuses, twitter accounts and some links for pertinent stories.

By my counts, here’s how the financials worked for this year’s draft:

• $5,503,500: Nats bonus pool for the top 10 rounds and all overages in rounds 11-40.
• $5,778,675: Bonus pool with 5% cushion (above 5% cushion they lose draft picks, below they just pay tax on the overage)
• $5,673,800: total bonus figures paid to the top 10 rounds of players plus the over-slot deal given to 12th rounder Jackson Stoeckinger
• $220,300: thus the amount they went over the official bonus pool
• $54,875: the amount they left “on the table” under the 5% cushion figure (clearly not enough to get Montes de Oca).
• $6,836,300: the total amount of (known) bonus dollars paid to all their signed players.  mlbpipeline.com did a good job this year getting bonuses for practically everyone who signed, unlike prior  years where anyone outside the top 10 remained mostly a mystery unless they were huge over-slot guys.

Over Slot deals:

• 1st rounder: Seth Romero: $269,600 over slot.  We’ve discussed this ad-naseum; really have no idea how he was able to command an over-slot deal.
• 7th rounder Jackson Tetreault: $121,900 over slot, a Juco guy with a commitment to USF that they had to buy him out of.
• 9th rounder Alex Troop:  $47,000 over slot: a solid college junior with leverage to go back to school
• 12th rounder Jackson Stoeckinger: $50,000 over slot to buy the Juco pitcher out of a commit to Kentucky.

Under slot deals:

• 3rd rounder Nick Raquet, $47,300 under slot, though not nearly as much as I thought he’d be under.
• 4th rounder Cole Freeman, $50,000 under slot, again a surprisingly high bonus figure paid out to a senior with no leverage.
• 8th rounder Jared Brashner, $139,600 under slot, the classic senior sign to save cash for other acquisitions.
• 10th rounder Trey Turner, $31,300 under slot to the TJ rehab pitcher who probably was happy to get what he got.

Some quick research on the seven guys who didn’t sign turned up a couple of useful links:

• 24th rounder Tim Richards, a senior SS from Cal State Fullerton, has apparently elected to retire rather than take whatever miniscule bonus figure the Nats offered and show up to play in Florida.  That’s amazing to me.  He just finished a great CWS showing, clearly has talent, and i’m shocked he’s just hanging them up.  Why not give it at least one summer in pro ball?  You got drafted for crying out loud; you have the rest of your life to be an adult.
• 34th rounder Bennett Sousa announced via Instagram the unshocking news that he’d return for his senior year.
• No real surprises on the HSers who didn’t sign.  Only surprise really was how how high they took Dusty Baker‘s kid as a legacy draft.  I wonder if the Nats weren’t trying to make sure they got him rather than some of the other teams Baker has been associated with, so as not to be shown up with their manager, and that explains why he went so high.
• No real surprise that Bryce Montes de Oca didn’t sign either, once it became clear that the nats 3rd and 4th rounders didn’t really result in that much savings.

Sure would like to see him signed so I can get an updated pic… Photo via UHcougars.com

Signing deadline is tomorrow, Friday 7/7/17 at 5pm.

A surprisingly large number of top 10 round picks remain unsigned, including our own 1st rounder Seth Romero.  Mlbpipeline reports that as of this writing 6 first rounders and 19 guys in the top 10 rounds have yet to sign.

To put this into context, given the new bonus/slotting rules it is extremely rare to have a top-10 round pick not sign.  Last year there were just two guys out of the 300+ guys picked in the top 10 rounds who did not sign.  We know for sure that at least one 1st rounder won’t sign: Tampa announced they will not be reaching an agreement with their 1st rounder Drew Rasmussen, a RS-sophomore from Oregon State.  Interestingly there’s confusion as to whether Tampa gets a comp pick or if Rasmussen becomes a FA.  I’m not sure where this is coming from; is it because Tampa has announced they’re refusing to even offer him a contract?  I’ve never heard of the “opting to become a FA” out of the draft; I thought he just goes back to school and re-enters next year (or goes to indy ball, where he’d still be draft-eligible next year).   Anyway; point is, if there’s more than 2-3 picks that don’t sign, it’d be a shock.

Which is why Romero in particular seems like an odd case to still have not signed.  He has little leverage; he has no college team to return to.  The other 1st rounders all remain unsigned due to signability issues; for example Ashburn/UNC’s J.B. Bukauskas fell 10 slots from his projection thanks to his last two starts being sub-par (attributed to a blister); he’s probably holding out for a bonus figure closer to #6 overall versus where he got signed.  Is this just a case of his agent Scott Boras trying to make sure he’s in the headlines?  Are they really struggling to come up with a bonus figure at this point?  The Nats and Romero were linked together for many days prior to the draft; its not like a case where they had a surprise player “fall” to them and they didn’t have time to pre-negotiate a bonus figure before picking him.

(coincidentally; the MLBpipeline report still lists Cole Freeman as un-signed; in reality they announced his signing and underslot bonus figure within a couple hours of LSU losing the CWS final).

Odds are that Romero signs, but the delay is curious.  He needs innings so the delay shouldn’t be about holding down his IP limit.  He’s been without a team and without proper training for months, so he stands to stay in XST for a number of weeks, putting him basically at the tail end of the minor league season.  So 2017 is looking like a wash for the most important pick of the draft.

Romero signing prediction: he signs, for a bit more than slot, which costs the nats any remaining chance to sign Bryce Montes de Oca.  But that doesn’t seem like a huge surprise.  It still puts the Nats  in a position where they likely sign 34 of t heir 40 picks, a huge number.  They won’t sign Montes de Oca, nor Dusty’s son Darren Baker (tangent; I agree with prior comments; if that was a legacy signing for show, why so early?).  They also won’t get UVA’s Bennett Sousa who will return to improve his draft stock for his senior year, and they miss out on the three late round HS picks (two of which were also legacy picks).

top 10 signing misses: i’ll guess we’ll see a few more non-signings out of the top 10 rounds, beating last year’s record low of just 2 non-signings.

So, is 2017 a one-player draft again? Photo via UHcougars.com

We already did a quick reaction to the first day/first two picks and then the top 10 rounds.  Here’s a more holistic look at our 2017 draft class.  The team announced yesterday that it had already signed an amazing 25 guys, and I think that number is likely to rise to at least 33 players (assuming all top 10 round players and all College seniors sign).  That’s quite a few more than I initially projected.

I did want to make a statement though, following up on a back-and-forth in the comments on previous posts about 3rd rounder Nick Raquet (who, unsurprisingly to me, has already signed though no word on his bonus amount).  Some asked why I was so critical of the pick.  We’ll, here’s why: its about opportunity cost.  Raquet was indeed ranked on some boards (#145 in BA’s pre-draft list) but was absent from practically every other credible draft service (MLBpipeline.com for example ranked 200 players and didn’t rank him at all).   ESPN/Keith Law, MinorLeagueBall, 20/80 and Fangraphs all had him totally off their lists.  Baseball Draft Report had him in the 300s.

The Nats drafted him #103 overall, at the end of the 3rd round.

I have nothing against Raquet personally, nor his school in general (which I denigrated during the comments due to its lack of baseball pedigree).  What I have a problem with is taking a player in the third round who:

a) was a far inferior player versus where he was drafted,

b) if the team really, really wanted him would have been available probably 3 or 4 rounds later, and

c) the team chose to take in lieu of many, many better ranked players at the time of the pick.

You could make the same arguments, by the way, about our 4th rounder: a senior in Cole Freeman who again by BA’s rank was drafted at least two rounds too early and by anyone else’s rankings was drafted 5 rounds too early.

The drafting of these two players in the 3rd and 4th cost the team the opportunity to draft two far, far better players in those slots.  I don’t have a problem punting draft picks in the 6-10th round range if you’ve drafted quality players in 1-5 … but to purposely punt on 3rd and 4th round implies that their round 1 and 2 picks (Seth Romero and Wil Crowe) were both going to be over slot guys.  And that astounds me; Romero was kicked off his college team; how is he in a position to command more dollars than his slot?  Where’s he gonna player if he doesn’t sign?  Indy ball?  And Crowe is a 4th year player with a TJ on his resume who I suppose could go back for a 5th collegiate season, but really that’d be flushing a crucial year of development down the tubes, plus burning a year on his surgically repaired arm … with little chance he could improve his bonus amount or draft ranking over where he got drafted this year.  How are either guy demanding over-slot money?

I liken the situation to playing Fantasy sports.  When your buddy in your league drafts a kicker in the 8th round you mock him mercilessly.  Why?  Because that same kicker was going to be there 4 rounds later and because wasting an 8th round pick on a kicker is a sign of poor team management and a lack of understanding of how fantasy works.  Its the same thing wasting a 3rd rounder in the fashion the team just did.

So, frustration over punting two high draft picks so as to pay two other high draft picks more money than I think they’re worth leads me to the end of this diatribe.  We’ll have our answer soon enough; if Raquet signs for a piddling amount of money (his slot value is $522,300), and if Freeman similarly signs for under-slot (he’s at $390,000) then you’ll have confirmation of the punting on these picks.  I suppose both guys could sign for at or near slot, which would imply that they were worth the draft pick; if that happens i’ll be shocked.

Anyway, back to the draft class review overall.  Here’s a quick table 1-40 before doing some breakdowns:

Here’s some breakdowns (note I wrote this prior to the team signing a bunch of these Juco guys plus a couple of HS guys):

• 11 College Juniors, 16 College Seniors/5th year Seniors, 7 JuCo guys, 6 High Schoolers
• 20 Pitchers, 20 hitters.  The pitchers broke down 12 RHP, 8 LHP.
• 9 of the top 10 rounds are pitchers though: these are the guys nearly guaranteed to sign.
• I count about 29 that i think are locks to sign; every guy in the first 20 rounds, plus all the 9 college seniors drafted in rounds 21-40.
  • Of these 29 guys: 17 are arms, 12 are bats.
• I’m only guessing that one Prep guy signs: 11th rounder Justin Connell.
• I count at least 4 under-slot guys: Nick Raquet, Cole Freeman ,8th rounder Jared Brashner and 10th rounder Trey Turner.  So that’s where the cost savings will come from to pay Romero, Crowe and perhaps Connell.

So, even though the draft splits even 20/20 bats and arms its heavily tilted at the top and in the signability department towards arms.  This should make for some serious carnage in the lower ends of our minor league ranks.  The Auburn roster is half stocked with late-round college seniors drafted in 2016 and rising IFAs from the DSL last year; I could see some moving of those guys down to GCL as needed and a shedding of 20th-some round 2016 signees to make room for all the guys they’ve picked up this year.  But the more I look at this draft, the more it looks like a one or two-player draft at the top.  Is that ok?  Sure; it is basically what the team did in the Lucas Giolito draft, and the industry was on record saying that the strength this year was college arms.  It should be interesting to see how quickly Romero moves up the ranks.

Bukauskas was the highest DC-area player taken this year. Photo Bill Kamenjar/InsideNova.com

Draft Coverage so far for 2017:

• 2017 Draft coverage; Local draft-prospects to keep an eye in for the 2017 draft
• 2017 Draft coverage; Mock Draft mania plus my projected top-5 and Nats picks
• 2017 Draft coverage; Prospect ranks, important links and local players of note
• Nats first two 2017 draft picks reaction: Risk and Reward
• First Look: Quick overview of Nats top 10 Draft picks for 2017

Here’s a quick rundown of the DC-area kids who got drafted this year.  My definition of “DC Area” includes any draftee who went to HS in the DC area or who attends a DC-area college.  Thus this includes University of Maryland players, even inf most of them went to HS outside the area.  NovaBaseballMagazine.com has a version of this story, and AllMetSports.com also published one if you’re interested.

That’s not a bad collection of DC-area guys.  We all knew J.B. Bukauskas would go high; lots of the mock drafts I saw had him as high as 6th.  However two unsteady starts to close out his career (in the ACC tourney and then in the Regionals of the CWS) dropped him probably 10 spots from where he could have gone.  Rumor has it he was suffering from a blister.  Suffice it to say, Houston has to be ecstatic that they got him at 15.  I’m slightly surprised how high Tommy Doyle went honestly; I would have guessed him to go a bit lower based on his profile now at UVA (reliever).  But he’s now looking at an $800k+ bonus.  UMaryland infielder Kevin Smith went a bit lower than projections.  Maryland RHP Brian Shaffer also went a bit ahead of schedule, going in the 6th round after having some helium this spring.  The last DC-area top-10 pick with a guaranteed slot was also a surprise to me: another UVA arm in Alec Bettinger went in the 10th round.  Again a surprise given his profile as a reliever.  But certainly not on talent or reputation; Bettinger’s name has been known to local baseball followers for years.

Riverdale Baptist’s Harold Cortijo, the All-Met player of the year, went in the 14th round.  It should be interesting to see what he does.  It seemed to me from reading his interviews that he intended to go pro, but a 14th round pick somewhat limits the bonus dollars he can get.  I wonder if he goes to JuCo and tries again next year.

Three DC-area prep graduates who, frankly, I’d never heard of went in the 17th and 18th rounds.  All three were at lower-profile baseball colleges.

Two area guys who play for UNC-Wilmington and who got some pre-season All America mention went in the 19th and 22nd round respectively: Nick Feight and Brian Mims were surprises to me to go so low.

The only other DC-area prep guys to even get drafted this year were two of the leading prep players in the area: Landon’s Randy Bednar, who went in the 27th and seems likely to honor his commit to UMaryland.  Also Old Mill’s Jeremy Orocho, who  is a longtime Evoshield Canes member and who apparently gave up on his UMaryland commit to go to JuCo.  I’m guessing he plays a year of community college and re-applies for the draft.

So here’s a short list of the higher profile DC-area kids who did NOT get drafted at all that i’ve been tracking for a while: These commits change constantly so apologies if I have one of them wrong.

• Kyle Whitten, RHP/1B from Osbourn Park in Manassas, VA.  Early commit to UVA.
• Tyler Solomon, C/1B from Battlefield HS in Haymarket, VA.  Early commit to Vanderbilt
• Anthony Simonelli RHP from Millbrook in Winchester, VA.  Early commit to Coastal Carolina
• Michael Ludowig, OF from Briar Woods.  Early commit to Wake Forest.
• Connor Hartigan, OF from Millbrook in Winchester, VA.  Was Early commit to Coastal Carolina, now committed to University of South Carolina-Sumter.

A far cry from 2016 with multiple prep kids from the area going in the top rounds.  I’ll do a similar post for the extended DC/MD/VA area next.

Will Crowe was our 2nd rounder. Photo via SportsTalk

Here’s a first look at our top 10 draft picks, or where we stand after day 2.

At the top of round 1, a last minute switch led to a surprise first name being selected: Royce Lewis went 1-1 instead of one of the two big college arms being rumored there all week; twitter reportedly had Brendan McKay rejecting an underslot deal at 1-1 and thus falling to 4th … where he’ll still get paid.  Nonetheless, the top 5 ended up being the same top-5 on nearly every mock draft … just in a different order.

How about the Nats picks?  Lets just say there was some back and forth among the pundits about these top 10 picks.

Pick by Pick: if they’re ranked on the main prospect ranking sites I like (see links at bottom):

• 1st Round/#25 overall: Seth Romero, LHP UHouston. (Espn #59, MLBPipeline #25, BA #27, Minorleague #29, BDR #49, 2080 #30).  Well, the worrisome situation came to pass; the Nats couldn’t help themselves and drafted perhaps the draft’s biggest knucklehead.  His list of transgressions at Houston were large and dumb; fights with teammates, weight/conditioning issues, drug issues.  Prior to the spring, he was easily a top-10 talent, with early projections having him going as high as 6th overall.  He’s a power-lefty; works 92-95, touches 97 and per MLB already has two 60-grade pitches.  He kind of reminds you body-wise of Chad Cordero, with mechanics kind of like Drew Storen.  He’s got a very quick arm, is a big-body kid who might still need some conditioning work, but whose mechanics may give him some issues later on.  I don’t like the pick for the character issues; the Nats left one big college arm who I would have preferred in Alex Lange, but the guy I really liked here (Tanner Houck) went the pick before, so perhaps that sewed up the Nats choices.
• 2nd/#65: Wil Crowe, RHP from South Carolina.  (Espn #43, MLBpipeline #44, BA #47, MinorLeague #30, BDR #185, 2080 #51):   A guy who I saw in some mock drafts going to the Nats at #25 overall falls somehow to #65 overall, despite nearly every ranking system having him 20 picks higher.  Crowe is a TJ survivor (aren’t they all these days?), with a 65 fastball and a couple of 55s on his other tools who was solid if unspectacular for USC this year.  Big guy, big arm, physical comparison to Joe Blanton.  I like this as a safe pick.
• 3rd/#103: Nick Raquet, LHP from William & Mary.  BA #145, BDR #348.  A lefty weekend starter from a bad baseball school in a small baseball conference.  Raquet had good K/9 numbers, but also horrible BB/9 numbers, had an ERA in the 4s and was a non-entity on the rankings.  Where is this pick coming from?  He wasn’t anywhere even listed on the Virginia-only prospects lists on the various sites.  A cost-savings pick?  There’s still significant talent on the board, not the least of which is Tristan Beck from Stanford; is his injury worse than people thought?
• 4th/#133: Cole Freeman, 2B senior from LSU.  BDR #429.  BA #166.  A senior sign, twitter reports that he’s 5’9″, has a short compact swing, can hit, has blazing speed, is high-energy and is plus-plus make-up.  Sounds great; this is a fourth round pick?  Sounds like an 8th rounder.  Still not sure what the Nats are doing.
• 5th/#163: Brigham Hill, Jr RHP from TAMU.  BA #346.  MLB #159.  BDR #171.  Texas A&M’s #1/friday starter, went 8-3 with a 3.16 era in the tough SEC.  Smaller guy, throws low 90s.  50s on most of his pitches, plus change up.  I like a guy like this; he reminds me of Austin Voth in terms of draft pedigree and collegiate accomplishment.
• 6th/#193: Kyle Johnston JR RHP from Texas.  BA #250, MLB #136, BDR #492.  Weekend starter who bounced around roles for Texas this year but had some very solid outings against good Big12 competition.  Not a ton of K/9, but two grade 60 pitches (fastball and cutter).  Profiles as a reliever, both by pitch capability and by stature (6’0″ right hander).  Not a bad pick here.
• 7th/#223: Jackson Tetreault, J2 RHP from State College of Florida Manatee – Sarasota.  BA #286.  I’m not a BA subscriber so I can’t read the scouting report, but his peripherals at his Juco (where a few others are getting drafted) are solid.  Worked as a starter, big K/9 numbers.
• 8th/#253: Jared Brashner.  Coll Sr RHP from Samford.  BA #430.  We’re clearly in the senior sign territory; Brashner’s a reliever from Samford with nearly a walk an inning to go along with 46 Ks in 30 relief innings.
• 9th/#283: Alex Troop, Coll Jr LHP from Michigan State.  BA #179 BDR #184.  Solid lefty with good numbers this year.  Not a bad 9th round pick, one who still rates on BA’s list.
• 10th/#313: Trey Turner, Coll Jr LHP from Missouri State.  Unranked anywhere, limited time this year ; just 13 IP but 22 Ks in those 13 innings and a stellar BAA.  Didn’t pitch after March because … he tore his UCL.  So there’s your annual Nat draftee with TJ surgery.

First 10 rounds worth of picks breakdown:

• 9 arms, 1 position player.
• 10 college (1 juco), zero prep.
• A few picks that seem like clear money savers: Raquet, Brashner, perhaps also Freeman.
• Heavy influence in the South East: 6 of the 10 picks come from Texas, Louisiana or Florida).

Conclusion: We’ve talked about the risk of Romero.  I liked the Crowe pick.  I question the Raquet and Freeman picks.  I liked the two SEC starter picks in rounds 5 and 6, and I liked the 9th and 10th rounders too as good risks.  Clearly this draft is about arms for the Nats after picking mostly positional players in 2016.  No screwing around with prep players; they drafted a bunch of college guys to try to get them to the majors more quickly, likely to fill voids coming up in the next couple of years.

What do you guys think of it?

Draft Links of Use

1. Mlbpipeline’s Draft Tracker for 2017
2. All 10 rounds of slot bonus figures for 2017
3. BA’s draft database, including link to get BPA
4. Perfect Game to get profiles on more obscure draftees.

Draft Rankings referred to within here:

• ESPN (Keith Law) Top 100 “Big Board” Draft prospect rankings
• MLBPipeline (Callis & Mayo): top 200 draft prospects
• BaseballAmerica Top 500 Draft Prospects
• MinorLeagueBall.com (Michael Cook) Top 151 Draft Prospects
• BaseballDraftReport’s top 500 (published just as the draft started)
• 2080baseball’s top 125.
• Fangraphs top 100 draft sortable board.

Romero kinda looks like the Chief, doesn’t he? PHoto via UHcougars.com

Well, it came to pass.  The nats couldn’t help themselves and took talent over character.

Here’s my quick reaction to our first two picks.  Not surprisingly, the team went with two college arms.

• 1st Round/#25 overall: Seth Romero, LHP UHouston. Well, the worrisome situation came to pass; the Nats couldn’t help themselves and drafted perhaps the draft’s biggest knucklehead.  His list of transgressions at Houston were large and dumb; fights with teammates, weight/conditioning issues, drug issues.  Prior to the spring, he was easily a top-10 talent, with early projections having him going as high as 6th overall.  He had 85 frigging strikeouts in 48 collegiate innings this year, and his slider is reportedly unhittable.  Sounds like a Carlos Rodon comp while he was in college.  He’s a power-lefty; works 92-95, touches 97 and per MLB already has two 60-grade pitches.  He kind of reminds you body-wise of Chad Cordero, with mechanics kind of like Drew Storen.  He’s got a very quick arm, is a big-body kid who might still need some conditioning work, but whose mechanics may give him some issues later on.  I don’t like the pick for the character issues; the Nats left one big college arm who I would have preferred in Alex Lange, but the guy I really liked here (Tanner Houck) went the pick before, so perhaps that sewed up the Nats choices.
• 2nd/#65: Wil Crowe, RHP from South Carolina.  A guy who I saw in some mock drafts going to the Nats at #25 overall falls somehow to #65 overall, despite nearly every ranking system having him 20 picks higher.  Crowe is a TJ survivor (aren’t they all these days?), with a 65 fastball and a couple of 55s on his other tools who was solid if unspectacular for USC this year.  Big guy, big arm, physical comparison to Joe Blanton.  I like this as a safe pick.

Interestingly, both guys might be “slot savings” picks too.  Romero may be a Scott Boras advisee, but his free-fall may not put him in much of a bargaining position.  Meanwhile, Crowe has now passed up being drafted twice, is a redshirt Junior and really doesn’t need a 5th year of college.  So perhaps we’re seeing some strategy here, saving some cash for a run at a prep arm in the 3rd or 4th.

Verdict: in Rizzo we Trust.  If Romero’s issues are past him, then we very well could see a Brandon Finnegan like movement through the minors this season (especially since he didn’t pitch a full year), with him even helping in the MLB bullpen later this season.  Why not?  If he’s got two 60-grade pitches right now, then he could probably pitch in a MLB bullpen right now.  Crowe seems like more of a classical big-body RHP innings eater who we may see slowly rise with solid but unspectacular stuff; just the kind of solid starter every team needs to develop from within.

I will now begin talking myself into Romero.  Hey, we were all 21 once and did dumb things too.  There’s my justification for the pick 🙂