Nationals Arm Race

Here’s a fast review of the 2015 draft class, looking at their 2015 numbers and making some snap judgements.

This post idea was stolen from minorleagueball.com’s John Sickels, who used to do this for nearly the entire draft class a couple of  years back.  It is quite a bit of clicking around so it isn’t surprising that he gave up on it.  I did this kind of review a couple of years ago and may try to find time to extend it to 2015 performances of the 2014 (and earlier) classes, because its a nice way to check in on everyone all at once.

Baseball America had some limited information for every kid taken in the first 10 rounds and this post expands on the BA information for our entire 2015 class all the way to round 40.

Web links to use while reading:

• Stats are pulled from milb.com and/or fangraphs.com; put the player name into the search bar to get his seasonal stats
• The MLB Draft Tracker (which I believe is the best draft tracker out there) is the best place to get draft class information.
• The Big Board and the Draft Tracker are the goto resources for prospects for any Nats fan.

At the end of each player write-up i’ll put in a color coded trending line for the player: Green for Trending Up, Blue for Trending steady, Red for Trending Down.   This is just my knee-jerk opinion of the prospect status of the player system-wide.  And yes I realize this is their first pro ball season, short-sample sizes, scouting the stat line, etc etc.  So apologies in advance if you think i’m being too harsh passing judgement on a 15 inning sample size.  Of course I am; what else are we going to argue about this off-season?  🙂

Without further ado:

Round 1: forfeited by virtue of the Max Scherzer signing.  Would have been the 26th pick overall, which ended up being Taylor Ward, a C from Fresno State that many thought was an overdraft by the Angels but which looks pretty good in retrospect (he slashed .348/.457/.438 in his first pro season split between rookie and low-A).  Knowing the Nationals’ proclivities, they likely would have taken one of two polished college hurlers here if they had the pick: Jon Harris (who went 29th overall) or Kyle Funkhouser (who went 35th overall).  Also still on the board was well-regarded HS pitcher Mike Nikorak, who went just after Ward.  I’m not complaining about the loss of this pick as I did with the Rafael Soriano signing; just pointing out how things could have gone otherwise.

Round 2: Andrew Stevenson, OF (CF).  COL jr from Louisiana State.  Slashed .305/.358/.376 across 3 levels, getting promoted up to Hagerstown relatively quickly.  16/30 K/BB in 214 Abs, 1 homer, 23SBs in 55 games.  Stevenson so far is pretty much what we expected; a speedy plus defender in center with blazing speed (nearly a half a SB per game), little pop but a decent bat.  He had very few strikeouts (just 16 in 214 ABs across 55 games): a great trait for a guy who probably profiles as a lead-off hitter.  I’d like to see better OBP though going forward.  Whether this translates to MLB production eventually remains to be seen, but so far so good.  Trending Up.

Round 2: Blake Perkins, OF (CF) from Verrado HS, Buckeye, Ariz.  Slashed .210/.265/.281  in the Rookie league, with 36/13 K/BB in 166 Abs, 1 hr, 4sbs.  Somewhat disappointing debut for Perkins, who some had pegged as an even better prospect than Stevenson.  We’ll chalk this up to a youngster facing pro pitching for the first time.  His first full season should be telling, though its hard to see him breaking camp with a full-season squad after this debut.  Odds are he’ll be in XST until June and then will give Short-A a try.  Post-posting update: thanks to AndrewR in the comments section for the Baseball America 2015 Nats Draft class review link, where it is pointed out that Perkins was asked to start switch hitting this year.  Well no wonder his average was so low.  A quick look at his splits: .111/.122/.222 versus lefties (going just 5 for 45), .248/.316/.306 versus righties.  Now, what’s kind of odd about that split line is this: he already batted R when drafted and *added* a lefty swing … so why was the slash line so bad versus lefties?  You’d think the split would have been the other way around?  I could not find traditional splits as a L or as a R on either fangraphs or milb.com; not sure if I just missed them or if Perkins started switch hitting later in the year.  Either way, you have to give his overall split line a pass.   Trending steady.

Round 3: Rhett Wiseman, OF (corner), COL jr from Vanderbilt.  Slashed .248/.307/.376 in Short-A with 52/18 K/BB in 210 Abs, 5 homers.   Honestly, I would have expected a bit more from Wiseman, a very polished college hitter from a good program.  Just 5 homers in 210 ABs?  I know the NY-Penn is a pitchers league … but that’s just one homer every 42 ABs.  He profiled as a power-hitting corner outfielder out of college; is this what he can be?  Milb.com reports that he played a lot of CF, which would be a nice little bonus if he could stay at the position.  Trending steady.

Round 4: Mariano Rivera Jr, rhp COL sr from Iona.  1-2, 5.45 ERA in Short-A with 26/3 K/BB in 33IP (19 app, 3 starts).  2.70 FIP, .388 babip.  Rivera was tried as a starter and quickly failed, getting moved to the pen, where he was much better.  Starter ERA: 13.00.  Reliever ERA: 2.63.  His seasonal ERA isn’t nearly as bad as it looks thanks to some bad luck; his FIP is good and his K/BB rate looks good as well.  He profiles like his father; slight, live arm, good stuff as a reliever.  I can see him moving up the ladder as a back-of-the-bullpen reliever.   Perhaps a disappointment that a 4th round pick was relegated to the bullpen after just three starts … but could be a quick moving arm on a team that clearly needs them.  Trending Up.

Round 5: Taylor Hearn, lhp COL jr from Oklahoma Baptist.  1-5, 3.56 in the GCL Short-A with a 38/13 K/BB in 43ip (10/10 starts), 3.40 fip, .346 babip.  (Editor note: he was in Auburn most of the year; he just started in GCL briefly).Perhaps too old to be in the GCL, but was decent nonetheless in 10 starts.    Nothing earth shattering here; I would like to have seen him going against other college hitters in Short-A frankly.  We’ll see what he does next year.    Hearn joined his fellow lefty first 10 round starters in the Auburn rotation and was completely effective, averaging nearly a K/inning with decent control.  He’s done nothing to jeopardize his advancement for 2016 and should compete for a low-A rotation gig.  Trending steady.

Round 6: Matt Crownover, lhp COL jr. from Clemson.  1-4, 3.81 ERA in Short-A with 34/9 K/BB in 49.2 ip (13 app, 10 starts), 3.40 fip, .301 babip.  As with Hearn’s numbers, nothing bad but nothing mind blowing out of Crownover’s numbers in Short-A.  Not a bad return for an under-slot ACC lefty starter.  I like the 4-1 K/BB ratio.  Trending steady.

Round 7: Grant Borne, lhp COL jr from Nicholls State.  1-4, 3.59 in Short-A with 32/7 K/BB in 47.2 ip (15 apps, 5 starts), 2.99 fip, .321 babip.  Its amazing how similar Hearn, Crownover and Borne’s numbers were, each profiling as a command/control lefty starter in Short-A.  Trending steady.

Round 8: Koda Glover, rhp COL sr from Oklahoma State. 1-1, 1.80 ERA across 2 levels, getting promoted to Low-A.  38/2 K/BB in 30 ip (19app), 2.44 fip, .288 babips in LowA where he spent most of the year.  38 to 2 (!!)  K/BB ratio in 30 innings.  That’s great.  No wonder he was an over-slot deal.  Glover profiled very well and should be in the mix for a High-A bullpen slot in 2016 already.  Trending Up.

Round 9: David Kerian, 1b COL sr from Illinois.  Slashed .251/.336/.338 in Short-A with 41/25 K/BB in 195 Abs, 0 homers.  Kerian signed for just $25k in the first of the Nats two big “save bonus money senior draftee” picks.  Zero homers as a first baseman and a .338 slugging?  That’s just not going to do it.  Trending Down.

Round 10: Taylor Guilbeau, lhp COL sr  from Alabama. 3-3, 3.54 in the GCL mostly in Short-A with 31/9 K/BB in 51 ip (11/10 starts) .2.89 fip, .356 babip.  Another senior sign, Gilbeau was 3-4 years older than his competition in the GCL yet “only” struck out 31 in 51 innings.  He may struggle to find a full-season job next year (what with all the other college lefties being drafted) and could quickly find himself out of organized ball.  Trending Down.  Turns out, I mis-read Guilbeau’s assignment; he was in Auburn basically the entire year and his FIP looks solid based on his competition.  I’m amending this report to say he’s Trending Steady based on his 2015.

Round 11: Andrew Lee, RHP COL jr from Tennessee.  Posted a 5-1, 1.63 ERA across 3 levels, ending up in Hagerstown.  47/10 K/BB in 38.2 innings (16/5 starts), 2.19 fip, .250 babip in lowA where he spent most of his time.  An intriguing arm for sure and more than held his own in 5 Low-A starts.  He’s in the mix for the Hagerstown 2016 rotation.  Trending Up.

Round 12: Tommy Peterson RHP COL jr  from South Florida.  0-0, 2.66 in Auburn with 13/4 K/BB in 20 relief innings, 2.83 fip, .318 babip as part time closer.   Not too many innings to judge on here; looks like a good option for the Hagerstown 2016 bullpen.  Trending steady.

Round 13: Max Schrock, COL jr from South Carolina.  Slashed .308/.355/.448  in Short-A with 16/13 K/BB in 172 Abs, 2 homers.  Drafted as a 2B, played mostly SS.  Schrock was the big over-slot deal the team signed in 2015, getting $400k over-slot as a 13th rounder (the rough equivalent of a mid 4th rounder).  He hit pretty well in Short-A in his debut too, with a good OPS figure for a middle infielder who made a ton of contact (just 16 Ks) but also needs to work on his batting eye (just 13 walks).  Trending Up.

Round 14: Mack Lemieux LHP from Jupiter Community HS (FL): did not sign, never seemed like he was even close to signing from articles and twitter.  Committed to Florida Atlantic University (FAU).

Round 15: Kevin Mooney,  RHP COL jr from UofMaryland.  1-0, 5.40 ERA in Short-A with a 15/13 K/bb in 21.2 innings, 4.95 fip, .333 babip.  Not a great debut for the local kid Mooney, who was last seen blowing both super-regional games that enabled UVA to surprisingly make its way to the CWS (where even more surprisingly they ended up winning).  Far, far too many walks given how many punch-outs he had, his FIP was still way up there even given a BABIP not really that out of line.  Needs to step it up if he wants a full-season job.  Trending Down.

Round 16: Ian Sagdal, SS COL sr  from Washington State U.  Slashed .235/.323/.327 in Short-A with 36/20 K/BB in 162 Abs, 1 homer, 1 SB.  Played mostly 2B per milb.com despite being drafted as a SS.  No power, little speed evident, tough season in Auburn for Sagdal.  With the collection of middle infielders the Nats drafted in 2015 plus the rising DSL guys, Sagdal may not be long for the system.  Trending Down.

Round 17: Dalton Dulin, 2B from Northwest Mississippi CC.  Slashed .273/.410/.354 in Short-A 21/18 K/BB in 99 AB as part time 2B.  Not too bad for a younger guy in short-A ball.  Trending steady.

Round 18: Melvin Rodriguez 2B COL sr from Jackson State U. (MS).  Slashed .200/.294/.282 in Short-A with 17/15 K/BB in 110ABs, 0hr, 0sb as part time 2B.  Well, if you’re not going to hit for power, you need some speed.  And if you can’t show speed, you should show a good hit-tool.  Rodriguez didn’t show much of anything this year and may not make it out of spring next year.  Trending Down.

Round 19: Clayton Brandt SS COL sr from MidAmerica Nazarene U (KS).  Slashed just .193/.304/.261 in the Rookie league, with a 28/10 k/bb in 88 Abs, 0 hr as SS.  Not good, especially as a 22-yr old.  Trending Down.

Round 20: John Reeves C, COL sr  from Rice (TX): did not sign.  Despite being listed as a “College Senior” he really was a 4th year junior and opted to return for his 5th year.

Round 21: Matt Pirro, Matt RHP COL sr  from Wake Forest.  0-0 3.71 ERA  across two levels, ending in Short-A.   14/11 k/bb in 17ip, 4.52 fip, .372 babip in short-A.  Not great numbers; too many walks, but his ERA/FIP likely the result of a bit of unlucky babip.  In a battle to stay employed though going into next year by virtue of his senior sign status.   Trending Down.

Round 22: Adam Boghosian RHP COL 5s from North Greenville U. (SC).  3-0, 4.28 era across 2 levels with 16/18 k/bb in 27ip, 5.59 fip, .162 babip in short-A.  Anytime you have more walks than strike-outs, its a bad thing.  And he posted a mediocre ERA despite an unbelievably low babip; his numbers are likely even worse with a longer sample size.  Another senior sign that may get the axe once full-season rosters get set next spring.  Trending Down.

Round 23: Alec Rash, RHP COL jr from Missouri: did not sign.  Rash has barely pitched while in College and was a better bet to try to regain some draft value by pitching a full senior season.

Round 24: Blake Smith RHP COL jr  West Virginia: did not sign.  Listed in some places as a senior but WVU’s site lists him as a junior, so he still has eligibility and opted not to sign so as to increase his draft status with a good senior season.

Round 25: Calvin Copping RHP COL jr from Cal. State Northridge.  1-2, 4.76 ERA in the GCL 14/5 K/BB in 17ip, 4.01 fip, .305 babip.  So-So numbers for a college guy in the rookie league.  As with his fellow middle-of-the-road senior sign pitchers, he needs to show more dominance if he wants a job out of spring 2016.  Trending Down.

Round 26: Russell Harmening. RHP COL jr Westmont Coll (CA).  1-0, 2.86 ERA in the GCL with 16/4 K/BB in 22ip, 3.26 fip, .303 babip.  Better numbers than Copping or Pirro or Boghosian, so we’ll give him a leg up in next year’s bullpen competitions.  Trending steady.

Round 27: Ryan Brinley, RHP COL jr from Sam Houston State U. (TX).  Was 1-4 1.44 ERA  across 3 levels this year with a 16/1 K/BB in 31.1 ip, 3.85 fip, .292 babip in low-A (where he ended up).  Great 27th round find so far in Brinley, who may not have a ton of swing and miss but certainly seems to have some command (1 BB in 31 innings??).  Could be a nice little middle relief option going forward, someone who can keep his team in games.  Trending Up.

Round 28: Mick Van Vossen RHP COL sr from Michigan State U.  0-2, 4.83 ERA  across 2 levels.  23/13 K/BB in 31.2 ip, 4.09 fip, .260 babip in GCL (where he spent most of the year).  Nothing too special here; struggled when he got to Auburn but only had 6ip there.  Needs to show a better K/BB ratio to compete next  year.  Trending steady.

Round 29: Philip Diedrick OF COL sr  Western Kentucky U.  Slashed just .146/.208/.292  in the GCL with 33/6 k/bb in 89 Abs, 4 hr as LF.  Not a good season for Deidrick at all, striking out a third of the time with little in the way of average or OBP to show for it.  Trending Down.

Round 30: Jorge Pantoja RHP COL jr Alabama State U.  1-1, 5.84 ERA in the GCL, 11/3 K/BB in 12ip, 2.74fip, .395 babip.  Looks like some potential there with a K/inning and a FIP that flatters  his ERA.  Probably needs more time.  Trending steady.

Round 31: Nick Sprengel LHP from El Dorado HS (CA): did not sign.  A strong commitment to the U of San Diego, Sprengel was never likely to sign.

Round 32: Dalton DiNatale 3B COL jr Arizona State U.   Slashed just .232/.326/.341  in the GCL 23/10 K/bb in 82abs, 1 hr, 2 sbs.  I would have expected more from a Pac-12 hitter in the GCL.  Trending Down.

Round 33: Angelo La Bruna SS COL 5S  from U. Southern California.  Slashed .269/.303/.355 in the GCL with 15/3 k/bb in 93 Abs, 0 homers.  Drafted as a SS but played 1B; anytime you have a 5th year senior in the rookie league who hits zero homers, warning flags go up.  Trending Down.

Round 34: Tyler Watson LHP from Perry HS (AZ).  1-1, 0.00 ERA  and 16/4 k/bb in 13ip, 1.81 fip, .226 babip in the GCL.  The Nats final over-slot signee ($300k over slot likely on top of the $100k you can throw at any post 10th rounder compensates him on a par as a mid 4th rounder), Watson did not disappoint.  He’s young but he looked dominant in his first pro innings.  I’ll bet he stays in XST and debuts next year on a short-A squad.  Trending Up.

Round 35: Coco Montes SS from Coral Gables HS (FL): did not sign.  Montes honored his commitment to South Florida.

Round 36: Taylor Bush SS from The Linfield School (CA): did not sign.  Bush honored his commitment to Westmont College.

Round 37: Steven DiPuglia SS from Cooper City HS (FL): did not sign.  DiPuglia  honored his commitment to Western Kentucky.

Round 38: Matt Morales SS from Wellington Community HS (FL): did not sign.  Morales honored his commitment to Stetson University.

Round 39: Jake Jefferies 2B COL jr  from Cal. State Fullerton.  Slashed .241/.276/.296  in Short-A.  5/2 K/BB in 54ABs, 0 homers, 3 steals in part time MIF.  Zero power.  Good bat control though.  The Nats have drafted Jefferies multiple times so they clearly see something in him; he sticks around for a bit even given his unimpressive 2015 campaign.  Trending steady.

Round 40: Parker Quinn 1B from The Benjamin School (FL): did not sign.  Quinn honored his commitment to Hofstra.

 

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Trending Summary:

• Trending Up (7): Stevenson, Rivera, Glover, Lee, Schrock, Brinley, Watson
  
• Trending steady (11): Perkins, Wiseman, Hearn, Crownover, Borne, Peterson, Dulin, Harmening, Van Vossen, Pantoja, Jefferies
• Trending Down (12): Kerian, Guilbeau, Mooney, Sagdal, Rodriguez, Brandt, Pirro, Boghosian, Copping, Deitrick, DiNatale, La Bruna
  
• Did Not Sign (10): Lemieux, Reeves, Rash, Smith, Sprengel, Montes, Bush, DiPuglia, Morales, Quinn

Executive Summary

I like what I see out of a handful of guys, and its great to see a couple of the lower-draft pick guys pop up a bit.  I want to see more out of Perkins and Wiseman in particular; their success makes or breaks this draft.  The three over-slot guys (Glover, Schrock, Watsh) all performed well, indicating great use of those funds by the Nats brain-trust.

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PS: I created an XLS to do this analysis; if you prefer, you can look at it in Google XLS or use the select cut-n-pasted info below:

Round	Player/Pos	2015 Level	Basic Stats
2	Andrew Stevenson, of	GCL-Short-A->LowA	.305/.358/.376
2	Blake Perkins, of	GCL	.210/.265/.281
3	Rhett Wiseman, of	Short-A	.248/.307/.376
4	Mariano Rivera, rhp	Short-A	1-2, 5.45
5	Taylor Hearn, lhp	GCL	1-5, 3.56
6	Matt Crownover, lhp	Short-A	1-4, 3.81
7	Grant Borne, lhp	Short-A	1-4, 3.59
8	Koda Glover, rhp	Short-A -> LowA	1-1, 1.80
9	David Kerian, 1b	Short-A	.251/.336/.338
10	Taylor Guilbeau, lhp	GCL	3-3, 3.54
11	Lee, Andrew RHP	GCL-Short-A->LowA	5-1, 1.63 ERA
12	Peterson, Tommy RHP	Short-A	0-0, 2.66
13	Schrock, Max 2B	Short-A	.308/.355/.448
14	Lemieux, Mack LHP	did not sign
15	Mooney, Kevin RHP	Short-A	1-0, 5.40 ERA
16	Sagdal, Ian SS	Short-A	.235/.323/.327
17	Dulin, Dalton 2B	Short-A	.273/.410/.354
18	Rodriguez, Melvin 2B	Short-A	.200/.294/.282
19	Brandt, Clayton SS	GCL	.193/.304/.261
20	Reeves, John C	did not sign
21	Pirro, Matt RHP	GCL -> ShortA	0-0 3.71 ERA
22	Boghosian, Adam RHP	GCL -> ShortA	3-0, 4.28 era
23	Rash, Alec RHP	did not sign
24	Smith, Blake RHP	did not sign
25	Copping, Calvin RHP	GCL	1-2, 4.76 ERA
26	Harmening, Russell RHP	GCL	1-0, 2.86 ERA
27	Brinley, Ryan RHP	GCL-Short-A->LowA	1-4 1.44 ERA
28	Vanvossen, Mick RHP	GCL -> ShortA	0-2, 4.83 ERA
29	Diedrick, Philip OF	GCL	.146/.208/.292
30	Pantoja, Jorge RHP	GCL	1-1, 5.84 ERA
31	Sprengel, Nick LHP	did not sign
32	DiNatale, Dalton 3B	GCL	.232/.326/.341
33	La Bruna, Angelo SS	GCL	.269/.303/.355
34	Watson, Tyler LHP	GCL	1-1, 0.00 ERA
35	Montes, Coco SS	did not sign
36	Bush, Taylor SS	did not sign
37	DiPuglia, Steven SS	did not sign
38	Morales, Matt SS	did not sign
39	Jefferies, Jake 2B	Short-A	.241/.276/.296
40	Quinn, Parker 1B	did not sign

First off; congrats to the Philadelphia Phillies, who thanks to late season collapse basically have locked up the #1 overall pick in 2016.  A five game game “lead” for the #1 overall pick next  year with just nine games left on your season is pretty unassailable, especially when you look at the lineups they’re putting out as of late.  Here’s the Reverse Standings for 2015.  And here’s the official 2016 draft order from MLB.

Your Washington Nationals are drafting 18th overall.  This is a somewhat precarious spot to be; high enough to guarantee a decent talent, low enough to tempt General Managers to punt the unprotected pick with a QO-attached free agent signing.  Somehow I doubt the Nats will go that route but you never know; the departures of our nine projected free agents will free up north of $60M of 2015 payroll, and you have to think Rizzo will be spending some of that to bolster the squad.

The top of the 2016 draft looks pretty amazing, and across the board pundits are talking about the strength of the 2016 class over the 2015 class.  I heard one pundit say that just 2-3 of the guys who went top10 this year would also go top-10 next year.  Here’s the leaders in the clubhouse for #1 overall pick next summer:

• Alex Hansen: RHP from U of Oklahoma with a huge arm (94-98), huge size (6’8″) and who is improving.
• AJ Puk: LHP from U of Florida; 2nd in the nation in K/9 last year as a sophomore friday starter for one of the best teams in the nation in the toughest conference … and will only get better.
• Blake Rutherford: OF from Chaminade Prep in LA; basically has starred at every prep event he can enter (18-U National team member as a *junior*, USA tourney of Stars MVP, great showing at the Area Code Games).
• Jason Groome: LHP from the IMG Academy.  Vanderbilt commit.  another USA tourney of Stars and Area code Game all-star, sits 91 and  hits 95 as a 17-yr old.  Attends the IMG Academy, formerly the Nick Bolloteri tennis academy but now basically a pro-prep HS with a $70k annual tuition that is rapidly becoming the best athletics school in the nation irrespective of the sport.  This is good b/c IMG has great in-house talent and will play a fantastic schedule of elite Florida programs and national invite tournaments since, well, the whole point of going there is to prepare yourself for drafting.
• Riley Pint: RHP from Kansas, LSU commit.  Sits 92-95 and can hit 98, again as a 17yr old, so he projects pretty well.

Most of the pundits I read put one of these 5 guys as the #1 overall pick this year.  The Phillies have a new management team and may go the “safer” route with a college hurler (Puk or Hansen), but the only bat on this list (Rutherford) could be the better long term player with less injury risk.

The Braves (currently slotted for #3 overall pick) have to be pretty darn excited with their prospects; no matter who the Phillies and Reds ahead of them pick, they’ll still get to choose from several #1 overall quality guys.  Being the Braves, they’ll want to go with one of the Florida kids (Puk or Groome) even though neither hails from the area (Iowa and New Jersey respectably).

We’ve talked around and about this issue.  Here’s a post entirely about it.

Which Nats pending Free Agents should the team offer a Qualifying Offer (QO) to this coming off-season?

First, for completion of Analysis, here’s the canonical list of FAs on the 40-man roster as of the end of the 2015 season (using Cots as a source):

• Jordan Zimmermann, Dan Uggla, Doug Fister, Ian Desmond, Denard Span, Nate McLouth, Casey Janssen, Matt Thornton, Reed Johnson

So, lets just get this out of the way; we’re not talking about Uggla, McLouth, Janssen, Thornton or Johnson here.  Maybe the team could think about re-signing some of these guys to non-guaranteed/minor league deals, or negotiate an extension for one of the relievers.  I wouldn’t be entirely against that (especially for Thornton, who has been pretty durn good both in general (2.43 ERA on the year even if he got hit hard a couple times in August) and against lefties in particular (.203 BAA against lefties on the year), but this post is about the 4 big names.

Important links for this analysis: Here’s the total 2016 FA list at mlbtraderumors.com and their take on the 2016 FA power rankings.  We won’t know what the QO amount is until mid-October, but we can estimate that it will likely be somewhere around $16.3M.  Here’s my Qualifying Offer worksheet, listing every player who has gotten one and their eventual signed contract details with Average Annual Values (AAVs) listed.

By the way, here’s some salient points ignored for the purposes of this post, but which could make this post obsolete.

1. I’m assuming that all pending FA players are acting rationally and in their own interest, and not working in concert with the players union and en masse turning down the qualifying offers.  So far, evidence shows this point may not be the case, as we’ve seen several players who inexplicably turned down QOs in the past.  The most blatant examples were Michael Cuddyer in 2014 and Kendrys Morales in 2013.  Cuddyer in particular was curious mostly for the timing; he signed a 2yr/$21M deal even before officially rejecting the 1yr/$15.3M qualifying offer, and it is hard not to make the argument that Cuddyer would have been much better suited to just taking the one-year deal for what was nearly the entire sum of the two year deal he eventually took.  I have no idea if Cuddyer just desperately wanted out of Colorado, which could be true … but then his destination didn’t support that argument either (prior to the season, the Mets were projected to be just another also-ran in the NL East; nobody predicted their run to 90 wins).
2. I’m assuming that Mike Rizzo hasn’t already made a “hand shake” deal with any of these players to specifically NOT offer the QO, since it can be such a huge damper on their eventual FA market.  We have argued this conspiracy theory before, with lack of QOs to both Adam LaRoche but especially Edwin Jackson being examples of players who may have had a gentlemen’s agreement prior to departing the franchise.

Lets take these guys one by one.

• Zimmermann: he’s a member of the likely “big 4” of FA starting pitchers to be available this off-season (also including David Price, Johnny Cueto and presumably Zack Greinke if/when he opts out of his existing deal).  Given Cueto’s issues at the end of 2015, I’d likely put Zimmermann as the third most valuable starter available.  And he’ll have no shortage of suitors.  We know he spurned signing a longer term deal on two different occasions (first when they negotiated his 2-year arbitration-buyout deal and then again last off-season) and the rumors are that the Nationals management/Rizzo are hesitant to commit major dollars to a post-Tommy John survivor.  He seems likely to sign a nine-figure deal somewhere, easily outdistancing the AAV of the QO.  Verdict: Offer the QO, he’ll reject it and signs elsewhere for more money than the Nats are willing to commit.
• Desmond: he’s *easily* the best middle infielder on the FA market, a good combination of offense and defense whose best season was in 2012 but has three straight Silver Sluggers and sort of rebounded towards the end of his otherwise dismal 2015.  I agree with other analysts; he likely was a fool to turn down $107m as has been widely reported, and will be lucky to get 60% of that in the FA market.  I’m guessing he gets a four year deal with an AAV of $18M or so.  Verdict: Offer the QO, he’ll reject it and signs elsewhere because that’s kind of the corner he’s painted himself into, and the Nats have their ready-made replacement for him in Trea Turner.

Those two were obvious.  These next two are not.

• Span: Another guy who picked a really bad year to miss 2/3rds of the season.  Span’s 2015 numbers are exactly in line with his excellent 2014 numbers, a point that his agent will be making this off-season. His injuries however could give teams pause.  He had “core” surgery in the spring, recurring back issues in the summer and then a torn Hip labrum in August that put him out for good.  Would you want to risk signing a 31yr old center fielder who just had hip surgery?  A good question.  Span does have competition in the CF free agency market, with decent players like Dexter Fowler, Colby Rasmus and Austin Jackson in the space.  The interesting tidbit that just popped up though is Span’s announcing that he’s switched agents and is now with the Scott Boras Corporation.  Boras is Mr. Free Agency, and has gleefully advised several prior clients to decline QOs and go head long into free agency only to watch them flounder (see Kyle Lohse, Stephen Drew and the aforementioned Morales as examples of players under Boras advisement who declined QOs in seemingly ill-conceived decisions).  Why did Span just switch to the super-agent Boras unless he needed someone to go out and drum up a good offer?  I think this is evidence enough that he’ll decline the QO and test the market.  And, even if Span accepts the QO (which I don’t think he would), he’d be competing with Michael Taylor for the starting CF job … on a team where our starting OF missed hundreds of games in 2015 and where the presumed 4th OF got 500+ at-bats this year.  So having Span around (who, by the way, hits lefty on a team that desperately needs lefty-hitting players) wouldn’t be the end of the world if he accepted the offer.  Verdict: Offer the QO, Boras will tell him to decline it anyway and the Nats will get an additional comp pick.
• Fister: Prior to 2015, Fister was one of the more under-rated starters in the league and seemed like a safe bet to sign one of these 5yr/$65M deals that we see all the time.  Believe it or not, Fister ranked 17th in the league in fWAR among starters for the combined seasons 2011-2014.  17th!  That’s better than the likes of Cueto, Darvish, Strasburg, and a whole  host of “better” pitchers.  Unfortunately, he chose his walk year to fall off a cliff, with his average fastball velocity (which has already been trending down for 4 seasons) falling more than a MPH and a half just this year.  He was ineffective in the rotation and was removed, and has been pitching out of the bullpen for weeks.  He’s making $11.4M this year but it seems like he’s going to be lucky to get a 1yr $8M deal now from a team willing to give him a shot at the back of their rotation.  If the Nats were to offer him a QO and he took it,  he’d likely be the leagues most expensive long-man (now that Tim Lincecum is out of contract that is) and/or he’d block a spot that really needs to go to either Joe Ross or Tanner Roark.  I just don’t see how the team can risk extending one.  Verdict: No QO, and Fister tries to find a pillow contract with a team like Oakland or San Diego where he can likely put up decent numbers.

So, that’s my thinking.  Nats make three QOs, cut ties with everyone, replace internally across the board like they were always planning to, and net a slew of extra supplemental first rounders in a 2016 draft that is significantly deeper than this year’s.  Sounds good to me.

Back in the day, (no this isn’t a “get off my lawn” post), once you got to high school age as a baseball player, you had just two choices for summer ball once the high school season was done; you’d either play Legion ball (if they were the elite of the town) or Babe Ruth (which was still pretty good baseball), and scouts would generally depend on scouting high school and Legion games and to hang out with high school coaches to figure out who the draftable talents were.

No longer.

These days, every kid of note hoping for a Division 1 scholarship or pro interest out of high school plays on a travel team.  These same players also go to Showcase events throughout the  year, either by invitation (for the best of the best) or on their own dime, where scouts can see players in a “combine” like setting and gauge their skills in a relatively controlled environment.  More and more, the actual performance in HS is downgraded or ignored and performances in these elite events is highlighted, since the opponent skill levels are so elevated and consistent.  This move has badly hurt Legion ball and has decimated Babe Ruth (here locally leagues have had to combine with other towns just to field enough teams to compete, and they struggle to find enough pitching to make the games competitive), but its the way of the future.

When you try to track prep kids (as I’ve begun to do more and more), you constantly hear about these teams and these events.  So I’ve finally broken down and tried to summarize them for the local area as best as I can.

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This is my attempt to characterize the landscape of Travel Baseball in the DC/MD/VA area.  A ton of this is drawn from participation in the recent Perfect Game Wood Bat 17-U championships, so I likely am missing teams that did not participate.  If you come across this post and i’m missing your team, please comment as such.

Elite Talent Teams

• Evoshield Canes: Based in Fredericksburg, VA with “outposts” up and down the east-coast.  This franchise is huge, fielding multiple teams at the latest WWBA event.  One of the leading talent teams in the land, winner of recent national travel team championships.
• Stars Showcase Red (formerly Demarini Stars): Based in Oakton, Va.  Also large enough to field multiple teams in national events.
• Chandler World: based out of Norristown PA but with a couple local players of note for 2015.
• The Dirtbags All-Blacks: based just across the border in North Carolina, but draws players from southern and SW Virginia.

Mid-level Talent Teams

• Richmond Braves National: based in Richmond.
• Virginia Cardinals; based in Midlothian, VA.  The best of the Richmond area players.
• Diamond Elite 17U: Ashburn; was independent, now joined with Evoshield Canes as one of their off-spring.  Comprised mostly of Ashburn/Leesburg guys from leading high schools out there like Stone Bridge.
• Mid Atlantic Red Sox: Frederick MD

Lower-end Talent Teams

• RISE Baseball Midlothian VA: ; not at WWBA 17u.
• Arena STARZ 17U out of Bel Air, MD.   Lots of Battlefield players on this roster despite its geographic location.
• Diamond Skills Dodgers (Silver Spring): mostly St. Johns Prep players
• Maryland Monarchs: Gambrils, MD: Anne Arundel county players
• Rawlings MD Prospects: Millersville MD
• Rawlings Prospects of VA Sandlot Elite Sterling, VA
• Tidewater Orioles Virginia Beach, VA
• Virginia Baseball Network: Mostly guys from Lynchburg and Forest based  high schools. (not at WWBA 17u)
• CBA Rays: Chesapeake based, mostly from Chesapeake-based high schools Greenbrier Christian, Great Bridge and Grassfield.  Not at WWBA 17u.
• Hampton Road Hurricanes: not at WWBA 17u
• Baltimore Bandits 17u: travel team run out of Calvert Hall HS in Baltimore.  Not at WWBA 17u.
• Old Dominion Hitters: some D-I talent, not at WWBA 17u.

It should also be noted that the big programs (Evoshield, Stars, DirtBags, etc) fielded a number of “alternate” teams that were not as talented as their leading “varsity” team.  Those squads, as fielded at WWBA 2015 were:

• Evoshield Canes American: Fredericksburg
• Evoshield North (NC): Raleigh
• Evoshield South (SC): Columbia
• Evoshield Seminoles (Richmond)
• Evoshield Canes Mid-Atlantic
• Evoshield Canes North
• Richmond Braves American
• Dirtbags Select (NC)
• Stars Black
• Stars Blue

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Showcase Guide 2015

So, what events are these kids playing?  Spurred on by this excellent summer-kick off article from Jonathan Mayo, here’s a good guide for the 2015 summer/fall events that the upper end rising HS seniors will be participating in.  Some of these have already passed and are listed here for completion purposes:

• Perfect Game National Showcase player roster, Mid June 2015 Ft. Myers FL. Just a combine of sorts.
• USA Baseball Tournament of Stars roster, Mid June 2015 Cary NC.  Fake teams created for scouting purposes.
• Perfect Game WWBA 17U championships, July 3-10, Emerson GA.  (aka the “Marietta/Cobb” event).  Won by a very good team out of Southern California called “CBA Marucci.”
• 17U Perfect Game World Series, July 17-22 in AZ.  Evoshield only local team; they fell in pool play.  The team that won WWBA came in 3rd; won by a team from Orlando.
• Impact 17U World Series, North Carolina; July 21-26, 2015.  A good local tourney with lots of east coast teams, just won by the Richmond Braves 16U team (a bit of a statement, beating a bunch of 17u teams).
• East Coast Pro Showcase (End of July); Tampa, FL.  Rosters here, with a few local kids.
• Area Code Games, Aug 4th-9th, 2015 Long Beach, CA.
• Under Armour All-America Game, August 15th, Chicago
• Perfect Game All-American Classic, August 16th, San Diego
• USA Baseball Trials, August 16th-19th, Southern California (campus of Cal State-Fullerton)
• Metropolitan Baseball Classic (Aug 24th at Hofstra in New York): aka “Met Ball,” put on by the Mets and featuring showcase talent from the area plus a couple of travel teams.  Slowly becoming a must-visit.  Evoshield and Chandler World competed, along with local guys.
• WWBA World Championships in Jupiter, FL, Oct 22-26, 2015 (aka the “Jupiter” event).  Won by Evoshield Canes for the third straight year, powering through the field, beating the strong Marucci team in the semis and then facing their 17-U team in the final.  Quite a show of dominance for the Evoshield program at this event.
• Several “Breakthrough Series” events throughout the country (Cincinnati, Florida, Compton) throughout the summer; lesser showcases.

Perfectgame.org is *the* website for these kinds of things.  At PG’s events, all the teams, with their full rosters of players with home towns and college commits, are online and viewable.  Very good information if you’re interested in (say) one particular team’s roster of players.

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Prep tournament guide 2015

• American Legion: Regionals this year are in Leesburg (presumably at Fireman’s field in Purcellville).  Nationals are Shelby, NC Aug 13th-18th.
• Babe Ruth: Regionals in various spots by age group, World Series in various locations by age.
• Connie Mack World Series: 7/31-8/7 in Farmington, NM.  Sponsored by the AABC, its a national tournament for regional winners and seems to consist of travel teams.

 

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This is my first cut at this data.  I’m sure i’m missing local teams and showcases.  Please let me know if you disagree with my characterization of the talent level of these teams (mostly taken by eyeballing the college commits to gauge the strength of the roster), if you feel i’m missing any major teams, or if you think a show-case or tourney is missing.

 

Now that the June 2015 draft signing deadline has passed, here’s a quick review of all DC/MD/VA players who got drafted with their signing bonuses (if known), and if not signed where they’re presumably heading to school.

This post at MinorLeagueBall lists all the top 20 round draft picks who did NOT sign.  This list has a ton of 20th round+ guys who we’re depending on MiLB.com assignments.

Chelsea James just did a nice summary of the Nats draft class at NatsJournal.  I’ll do a separate post to that end later on.

Important Draft-related links for this post:

• MLB’s Awesome Draft Tracker; you can slice and dice the draft 10 different ways, search by schools and home states, etc.
• Official Draft Bonus Pool totals.  Astros have $17M (most).  Nats have 3rd least at $4.1M.
• MLB.com’s Draft Signing and Bonus tracker; note this only goes through the first 10 rounds; after that, the bonus figures are treated differently.

College Players with local ties

• Nathan Kirby LHP from UVA: went #40 (Supp 1st round) to Milwaukee.  Signed at the deadline for below slot value ($1.2M versus slot of $1.545M).
• Josh Sborz, RHP closer for UVA: went #74 (Supp 2nd round) to the Dodgers.  Signed at the deadline for below slot ($722k vs $827k).
• Taylor Clarke, who hails from Ashburn (Broad Run HS) went #76, first pick of the 3rd round to Arizona.  Signed for slot value of $801k.
• Mike Matuella, of Great Falls (Georgetown Prep) and Duke: #78, to Texas in the 3rd round.  Signed for huge overslot deal of $2M.
• Brandon Lowe: UMD infielder: 3rd round #87 overall to Tampa Bay.  Signed for $6k overslot ($697k); why $6,000 over slot?  weird figure.
• Alex Robinson: UMD’s ace Lefty went in the 5th round (#140 overall) to Minnesota.  Signed for $5k under-slot ($382k)
• Joe McCarthy, OF for UVA: 5th round, #148 overall to Tampa Bay.  Signed for slot value of $358k.
• Brandon Waddell UVA Saturday/Sunday starter: 5th round (#157) to Pittsburgh.  Signed for slightly underslot bonus of $315k.
• Jack Wynkoop of Virginia Beach (Cape Henry Collegiate HS), LHP starter for South Carolina: went in the 6th round to Colorado.  Signed for slot value of $298k.
• Michael Boyle: Radford Ace.  13th rounder to the Dodgers.  Signed for unknown figure, currently in Rookie/Pioneer League Ogden.
• Kevin Mooney: UMD closer: 15th rounder by the Nats.  Signed for unknown figure, currently in short-A Auburn.
• Kenny Towns; 3B from UVA and the 2011 All-Met player of the year from Lake Braddock, went in the 20th to the Angels.  Signed for unknown figure, currently in Rookie/Pioneer League Orem.
• Luke Willis, OF from George Mason and Oakton HS, in the 30th round to Kansas City.  Signed for unknown figure, currently in Rookie/Appalachian League Burlington.
• Josh Swirchak, a MIF from Division II Wilmington University via Osbourne Park HS in Manassas, Signed with St. Louis as an undrafted free agent after the 2015 draft.   Currently at short-A State College.

There were no significant college draftee non-signings from the area.

There are quite a few other college players from the many baseball-playing colleges in the area drafted past the 10th round; search the MLB draft tracker and select the state of Virginia for many more local college players.

Local Prep players of note:

• Jimmy Barnes, Deep Creek HS in Chesapeake; 11th rounder to the Angels.   Signed for unknown figure, currently in the Arizona Rookie League.
• Nic Enright RHP from Steward HS in Richmond: 19th rounder to the Mets.  Did Not Sign, as noted on MinorLeagueBall.com.  Will presumably honor his committment to Virginia Tech.
• Ljay Newsome of Chopticon (south of Waldorf): 26th rounder by Seattle.  Per his summer team’s twitter page, Newsome Signed with Seattle for an undisclosed amount.  Currently in the Arizona Rookie League.
• Nathan Trevillian, RHP from small Amherst County HS; 22nd rounder to the Pirates.  Signed for  unknown figure, currently in GCL.
• Stevie Mangrum, 3B from Western Albemarle HS in Charlottesville, 28th round pick by Boston.  Did Not Sign, will presumably honor his commitment to Virginia Tech.
• Cody Morris, of Reservoir got picked up in 32nd round by Baltimore.   Did Not Sign, will honor his commitment to South Carolina.
• Hunter Parsons of Parkside HS, picked up in the 40th round by Cleveland.  Did not Sign, will presumably honor commitment to Maryland.

At the end of the signing period, here’s what some of these local schools’ recruiting classes seem to look like in terms of local guys:

• UVA: Connor Eason, Nathan Eikhoff, Evan Sperling, Grant Donahue
• U of Maryland: A.J. Lee, Hunter Parsons
• Virginia Tech: Nic Enright, Stevie Mangrum, John DeFazio, Paul Hall
• South Carolina: Cody Morris, Danny Blair
• Wake Forest: Harvey Logan
• Liberty: Jack DeGroat
  
• VCU: Brody Cook
• UNC-Asheville: Jordan Carr
• Campbell: James Monaghan
• Uncommitted thus far: Kaleb Bowman, Hunter Byrnes.  Update post-publishing: Bowman went to Spartansburg Methodist and Byrnes went to UVA … to play football.

This Baseball America link has a list of all the major prep players who didn’t sign, listed by college commitment.  It has a couple more big names for some of the local baseball schools.  PerfectGame.org also has a way to search by college commitment, but it doesn’t verify the results since its self-reported by the players (it has literally 20 names listed for UVA’s incoming 2016 class).

Nats re-draft/previously drafted Players (i’ve noted our previous draft position for each player)

• Andrew Suarez , (2nd round pick 2014) LHP from Miami went in the 2nd round again, #61 overall this time to San Francisco.  Signed for slot of slightly more than $1M.
• Skye Bolt, OF from UNC, went in the 4th round (#128 overall) to Oakland.  Signed over-slot deal of $610k.
• Cody Poteet, (27th rounder in 2012) went in the 4th round (#116 overall) to Miami.  Signed slot deal of $488k.
• Austin Byler, (9th rounder, 2014) OF from Nevada.  Was the first pick on day 3; 11th rounder by Arizona.  Signed for unknown amount.
• Daniel Salters (22nd rounder 2014) C from Dallas Baptist: 13th round pick to Cleveland in 2015.  Signed for unknown amount.
• Jake Jefferies (34th rounder in 2012): 2B from Cal State-Fullerton; Nats picked him up again, this time in the 39th round.  Signed for unknown amount with the Nats and is on the Auburn roster.

Previous local Draft posts:

• At the beginning of the season, we profiled a ton of local prep and college players.
• Then we talked about the higher-profile local players in our Pre-draft coverage
• Just after the rule-4 draft, we went over all the local players who got picked.

Player Killers.  Arm Shredders.  Arm Abusers.  There’s more than a few college coaches/programs out there who are known for it.

Its always dangerous to make a blanket statement in baseball.  If I say that “CollegeX is known for killing pitcher arms” then there’ll immediately be people who cite players who are exceptions to such a rule.

Nonetheless, while reading a ton of prospect-driven content on the web over the years, some common themes pop up.  And the crux of it is this: there are some college baseball programs out there that are accused of hurting their players’ professional prospects and draft statuses by virtue of the misguided or (in some cases) outdated coaching and usage of players.

Grantland’s Michael Baumann wrote an excellent article summarizing some of the “danger programs” in 2013, citing work done by Rany Jazayerli and Baseball Prospectus.  Some of this also comes from Keith Law‘s freely offered opinions on the topic, and he offers up plenty of supporting evidence in his columns and chats.  Some of these are “arm shredder” programs, others are places that are thought to change player’s swings.

Here’s some trouble-maker programs (and by “programs” often times by implication you’re blaming the head coach as the decision maker):

• Stanford: Law calls it the “Stanford Swing.”  Per Law, Stanford coaches emphasize going away, altering hitters’ swings to de-emphasize pull hitting, to the point apparently where players are outright benched for pulling the ball.  Now, there’s quite a few Stanford grads in the Majors right now, and the  hitters listed aren’t exactly an honor roll of top-hitting guys.  Jed Lowrie might be the best active hitter.  The career Stanford grad homer leader is the recently retired Carlos Quentin, out of baseball at 32.  So maybe there’s something to it.
• TCU: Jim Schlossnagle is not well known for its handling of pitchers.  The Nats are well aware of this, having drafted damaged goods in Matthew Purke, who was 15-0 as a freshman and basically hasn’t been the same since.
• Rice’s Wayne Graham: Law has provided an exhaustive list of pitchers who he accuses the Rice coaches of blatantly over-working and has flat out suggested that pitchers considering attending Rice should go elsewhere.  In fact, the most blatant example of this was the 2004 draft: Rice had three starters drafted in the first 8 picks (Philip Humber, Jeff Niemann, and Wade Townsend) and ALL three of them suffered shoulder injuries soon there after.
• UNC‘s Mike Fox so over-used a reliever a few years back that the New York Times of all papers wrote about it.  And he had Matt Harvey, don’t forget, allowing Harvey to throw an astounding 157 pitches in a 2010 outing and 5 other instances of 120+ pitches.  Is it a coincidence that Harvey blew out his UCL just a couple years later?  Causation or Correlation?
• South Carolina‘s Ray Tanner: won back to back CWS’s … on the backs of his pitching staff.
• Texas‘ legendary coach Augie Garrido already had a reputation for overuse before the infamous Texas-Boston College regional game in June of 2009.   Texas’ Austin Wood, a reliever, came out of the bullpen to throw 13 innings and 169 pitches in the 25-inning game.  Garrido really took a lot of heat for that … but his BC counterpart might have only been slightly less culpable.  BC threw its own guy Mike Belfiore for 129 pitches and 9 2/3 innings.  In Wood’s case, it was made even worse by the fact that he had thrown two innings *the day before.*  It is no surprise to report that Wood had to undergo Shoulder Surgery the next season, nor is it a surprise that the crusty Garrido disclaimed any responsibility for the injury by Wood’s usage in that game.  Belfiore, it should be noted, has never shown any evidence of injury, was a 1st round draft pick just prior to his appearance, and looks like a 4-A pitcher who is now in the Detroit organization but who had a cup of coffee in 2013.  Perhaps its because Belfiore was a starter and basically threw a start instead of Wood, who was clearly a reliever.
• UCLA: Look at the usage in college for guys like Trevor Bauer and Canning Griffith; is it any shock that these guys end up with injuries?
• Notre Dame: Not a good track record (per Keith Law) of developing or protecting pitchers.

Pitch count guidelines: there’s research out there that basically shows that anything above 120 pitches in an outing is an indicator of fatigue-induced regression their next time out, and 130+ pitch outings might as well be prescriptions for injury.

Times have changed: no longer are A-1 pitching prospects left in games to rack up ridiculous pitch counts.  Mark Prior had at least 6 starts the year he was drafted where he threw 120-130+ pitches.  Ben McDonald was famously started in back to back CWS games, getting clobbered in the second game … all while having *already* been drafted by the Baltimore Orioles, who must have been screaming at the television set watching what was  unfolding as legendary LSU coach Skip Bertman set about destroying the best arm in the nation.

But then again, the more things change, the more they stay the same.  NC State, in a mad dash to make the post-season in 2014, let their Ace starter Carlos Rodon throw 120+ pitches seven times.  Rodon’s usage was also discussed in Baseball America.  Did that lead to Rodon’s diminished stuff and subsequent drop in the 2013 draft?  Maybe.  I’m sure the White Sox are ok with it, since he doesn’t seem to have suffered any ill effects and is in their rotation 2 years later.  Trevor Bauer, while at UCLA, *averaged* more than 120 pitches an outing the year he was drafted … but he seems like such an outlier because of his warm-up technique (which involves extreme long toss and clearly has built up his shoulder strength over the years).  Are NC State and UCLA trouble-programs?  I havn’t heard much since so i’m leaving them off for now.

Did I miss anyone?

Post Publishing update: we’re starting to hear more and more about UVA’s Pitching program being problematic;  Per baseballdraftreport.com, only 3 of the 22 UVA pitchers drafted since 2009 have even made it to the majors, and the career UVA bWAR leader among all UVA players is a lefty reliever in Javier Lopez.  UVA has had 42 players reach the majors and is one of the leading colleges for active players as we speak, but has had an awful track record of arms drafted recently.  Just take a look at some of the recent top-end UVA arms drafted (from recent to older):

• Conner Jones: 1st round talent out of HS, slipped to 2nd round in 2016 thanks to regression during college career but no injury issues thus far in pro career.
• Nathan Kirby: supp-1st rounder in 2015: after just 5 pro games he needed Tommy John.  Missed all of 2016 with injury, still not on an active roster as of Apr 2017.
• Josh Sborz; supp-2nd rounder in 2015: 2016 High-A all-star and 2017 NRI to Dodgers MLB camp.  Starting in AA.  One minor D/L trip.  Was UVA’s closer/long reliever but starting in pro ball.
• Brandon Waddell: 5th rounder in 2015: quickly pitched his way to AA, where he spent most of 2016, suffered a forearm strain early in 2017.
• Nick Howard: 1st rounder in 2014, missed half of 2015 and 2016 with shoulder injuries, still in XST to start 2017.
• Artie Lewicki: 8th rounder/senior sign in 2014: missed parts of 2014 and 2016 on the D/L but active and in AA in 2017.
• Whit Mayberry: 21st rounder in 2014, already released by his drafting team (Detroit) and signed as a MLFA by Washington for 2017; currently in High-A.  No injuries.
• Kyle Crockett: 4th rounder in 2013, raced through the majors and debuted for Cleveland in May 2014.  No injuries.
• Scott Silverstein: 25th rounder in 2013, hurt in May 2015 and released after that season.
• Branden Kline: 2nd rounder in 2012, has been on the D/L since May of 2015.
• Danny Hultzen: #2 overall pick in 2011: massive shoulder issues, out of the game after throwing just 169 minor league innings in 6 pro seasons.
• Will Roberts: 5th rounder in 2011, has had a long minor league career; in AAA to start 2017.
• Tyler Wilson, 10th rounder in 2011, is currently Baltimore’s #5 starter.

So a couple of high profile injuries, but also some successes.  I suppose the issues that their marquee 1st rounders has led to this reputation.

2018 update:

• Florida State let their starter (already having thrown 108 pitches) return to a game after a rain delay
• UConn getting a bad rap.

Here’s a recap of our CWS coverage so far for 2015:

• College Baseball 2015 Previews and pre-season Rankings
• Regular Season Wrap up for DC Local College teams
• Field of 64 announcement
• CWS Regional Results and Super Regional Pairings
• CWS Super-Regionals recap and CWS field
• CWS Group Winners and CWS Final preview

 

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Here’s how the Finals played out.

• In Game One on 6/22/15, UVA’s Connor Jones matched Vanderbilt’s ace Carson Fulmer zero for zero for the first five innings.  However, Vanderbilt got a well-timed opposite field double down the line to plate two and then scored three more, knocking Jones from the game in the 7th to win game one 5-1.  Fulmer was outstanding, holding UVA to just 2  hits through 7 2/3rds innings, leaving with a large lead in his final collegate appearance (he was drafted 8th overall by the White Sox).  Other players of note: #1 overall pick Dansby Swanson finally had a good game, going 2-4 with a run and an RBI.  Nats 3rd rounder Rhett Wiseman struggled; going 0-4 with the hat-track of three punch-outs.
• In Game Two on 6/23/15, UVA turned to their regular outfielder Adam Haseley in somewhat of a shock, and he threw 5 shut-out innings before handing the ball to the most dominant pitcher this post-season has seen in Josh Sborz, who threw another 4 shutout innings to shore up the win 3-0 and force a game 3.  UVA’s offense was also unexpected; they were powered by their #8 and #9 hitters, the latter of which was walk-on senior Thomas Woodruff, who had a grand total of 67 ABs in his collegiate career.  It was Woodruff’s 2-run bases loaded single that provided the game winning runs.  Amazing.
• In Game three on 6/24/15, UVA’s Brandon Waddell threw the game of his life, giving up 2 runs early but then shutting down Vanderbilt’s offense for the next six innings en route to a 4-2 win.  Vanderbilt’s Walker Buehler struggled with his control, giving up runs early and getting unceremoniously yanked in his last collegiate appearance.  Nathan Kirby came on to relieve Waddell, who threw 105 pitches on 3 days rest, and blew away Vanderbilt’s hitters in the 8th and 9th for his first (and last) career save.  3B Kenny Towns, a lowly 20th round pick by the Angels, was the game hero, with a very good diving stop to save a run early and a crucial go-ahead RBI late.   But it was freshman 1B Pavin Smith who was the offensive star of the game, clubbing a 2-run homer early to tie the game and deflate Vanderbilt.

UVA wins the first Baseball title for the ACC since 1955, an amazing stat considering the baseball-playing pedigree of the conference.  Super reliever Josh Sborz recieved the MVP award for his CWS work; final tally:  3IP on 6/13, 2IP on 6/15, and 4ip on 6/20, and 4IP on 6/23.  All Scoreless.

UVA completes a pretty amazing season all things considered; they suffered injuries to a number of their key guys, struggled in conference all season and likely only even made the field by virtue of a sweep of UNC in their final ACC season series.  But, for those who thought the final was a fluke based on the seedings of the two teams, consider this: Vanderbilt was the consensus pre-season #1 team by every poll out there, and UVA was either 2nd, 3rd or 4th in those same polls.  So these teams were expected to return to the CWS at the very least … they just to circuitous paths there.

Your 2015 College World Series Champion: The University of Virginia

This concludes the College Baseball season and our coverage of it for 2015.  I have some draft posts about summer leagues and summer travel teams of note for high schoolers that I may dig out again, for those interested.

 

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College CWS tournament references:

• d1baseball.com’s daily scoreboard is my go-to link
• Baseball America’s Regional Roundup
• d1baseball’s tournament Post season Index
• d1baseball.com’s Tournament Summary page
• d1baseball’s Regional participant information
• CollegeBaseballDaily.com has coverage as well.
• Ncaa.com’s interactive full 64-team bracket
• NCAA Individual player stats
• Warren Nolan.com’s College Baseball RPI

Where do we stand on our signees?

Per the MLB draft bonus tracker, which is the best information i’ve seen on draft signings, here’s where we stand on our first 10 picks:

Round	Name/Position	Col/HS	School	Signed?
2	Stevenson, Andrew* OF	COL jr	LSU	not yet signed; just gone done playing in CWS.
2	Perkins, Blake OF	HS	Verrado HS (AZ)	signed for $800k, $93k under slot.
3	Wiseman, Rhett* OF	COL jr	Vanderbilt	not yet signed; still playing in CWS.
4	Rivera, Mariano Jr. RHP	COL sr	Iona (NY)	signed for $410k, exactly slot.
5	Hearn, Taylor LHP	COL jr	Oklahoma Baptist U.	signed for $275k, 37k under slot
6	Crownover, Matt LHP	COL jr	Clemson	signed for $160k, 70k under slot.
7	Borne, Grant LHP	COL jr	Nicholls State (LA)	signed for $150k, 27k under slot.
8	Glover, Koda RHP	COL sr	Oklahoma State	signed for $200k, 34k over slot.
9	Kerian, David# 1B	COL sr	Illinois	signed for $25k, 130k under slot
10	Guilbeau, Taylor LHP	COL sr	Alabama	signed for $25k, 124k under slot

Total savings from top 10 picks: $93k + $37k + $70k + 27k – 34k + $130k + $124k = $447k of savings before Stevenson/Wiseman go.

My intuition is that Stevenson signs for under slot and Wiseman for slightly over slot.

What about the rest of the draft?  What have we heard?  As I was writing this post, WP’s James Wagner reports that the Nats have signed 23 of their 40 picks.  But his post included no details  Who else do we know about?  From the MLB Draft Tracker, and per the Nats Draft Tracker XLS, here’s the rest of our draft and signing status.

If 8 of the top 10 have signed, that means another 15 from rounds 11-40 have signed.  Lets do some sleuthing.

Picks 11-30 included ten 4th or 5th year seniors; I’m going to assume they’ve all already signed at this point (they have no leverage and can either choose to sign for whatever the Nats give them or opt to go to indy ball).

Here’s the 10 senior draftees from the later rounds:

Round	Name/Position	Col/HS	School
16	Sagdal, Ian* SS	COL sr	Washington State U.
18	Rodriguez, Melvin* 2B	COL sr	Jackson State U. (MS)
19	Brandt, Clayton SS	COL sr	MidAmerica Nazarene U (KS)
20	Reeves, John C	COL sr	Rice (TX)
21	Pirro, Matt RHP	COL sr	Wake Forest
22	Boghosian, Adam RHP	COL 5s	North Greenville U. (SC)
24	Smith, Blake RHP	COL sr	West Virginia
28	Van Vossen, Mick RHP	COL sr	Michigan State U.
29	Diedrick, Philip* OF	COL sr	Western Kentucky U.
33	La Bruna, Angelo SS	COL 5S	U. Southern California

So that leaves 3 non-senior signs that likely have signed on the dotted line.  Here’s what I’ve found:

11	Lee, Andrew RHP	COL jr	Tennessee
12	Peterson, Tommy RHP	COL jr	South Florida
17	Dulin, Dalton# 2B	CC	Northwest Mississippi CC

11th rounder Andrew Lee has signed per his twitter page.   12th rounder Tommy Peterson has signed per his twitter page.  and 17th rounder Dalton Dulin has signed per this link.

So that’s your 23 of 40 so far.  I’m guessing that the team doesn’t sign any of the players taken in rounds 31-40 (with the exception of 5th year senior 33rd rounder Angelo La Bruna), since they’re mostly high schoolers, so in reality their target for signing is really 31 players.  So they’ve signed 23 of the 31 they could expect to sign.

If anyone has heard anything else about potential signees, chime in.

 

 

 

Here’s a recap of our CWS coverage so far for 2015:

• College Baseball 2015 Previews and pre-season Rankings
• Regular Season Wrap up for DC Local College teams
• Field of 64 announcement
• CWS Regional Results and Super Regional Pairings
• 2015 CWS Super-Regionals recap and CWS field

Lets review the CWS group play.  The CWS plays just one or two games a day; a far cry from the first weekend, where 64 teams played hundreds of games over the course of a long weekend.  So this post has been written in one or two sentence increments for a week and a half…

My pre-CWS predictions were Florida from the top and LSU from the bottom.  Lets see how things turned out.

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In the Left Bracket (UVA, Arkansas, #5 Miami and #4 Florida)

• In the opening games, UVA took out Arkansas 5-3 behind a decent effort from Connor Jones (Great Bridge HS) but an even better effort from 2nd rounder Josh Sborz, who shut down Arkansas for the win.  Both teams’ premier hitters (Andrew Benintendi and Joe McCarthy) hit solo shots during the game.  In the other opener,  Florida destroyed Miami 15-3, knocking out Andrew Suarez after just 3 1/3 innings.
• In the first elimination game, Miami got two hits in the bottom of the 9th to walk off and eliminate Arkansas 4-3.
• In the winners bracket game to take control of the group, UVA’s #2 Brandon Waddell pitched perhaps the game of his career, shutting down Florida on just 2 hits for 7 scoreless innings before Sborz got the 2-inning save, giving UVA a 1-0 victory and a surprising (to me) clear path to the CWS finals for the 2nd year in a row.
• In the play-in game to the group final, Florida jumped all over Miami’s starter, so they brought back Suarez on short rest (which I’m sure his drafting team (San Francisco) was thrilled about), but the game was over early and Florida eliminated Miami 10-2 to setup a rematch with UVA for a berth in the finals.
• In the group final, UVA’s gambit of throwing ace Nathan Kirby after being side-lined for months backfired; he was hit hard early and UVA’s notional 3rd starters (Alec Bettinger) just couldn’t keep Florida at bay long enough to allow his offense to come back.  Florida wins 10-5 to force a winner-take-all game and wreak havoc on UVA’s pitching matchup strategy.  Luckily for UVA, they have Josh Sborz, who relieved Waddell and threw four shut-out innings, enough to give UVA’s offense time to scrape together the winning run and advance to the CWS final.

Group winner advancing to the CWS finals: UVA

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In the Right Bracket (#2 LSU, #7 TCU, #11 Vanderbilt and #14 Cal State-Fullerton)

• In the opening games, TCU stunned LSU 10-3, with TCU’s ace (and Chicago Cub 8th rounder) Preston Morrison shutting down LSU’s offense.  Nats 2nd rounder Andrew Stevenson was 1-4 with an RBI.   Meanwhile, Cal State – Fullerton got to Vanderbilt ace Carson Fulmer while their own ace (2nd round pick Thomas Eshelman) showed why he’s got 80 command, throwing 5+ scoreless, walk-less innings before weather forced the suspension of the opener.  Luckily for Vanderbilt, the rest of CSF’s staff wasn’t as effective, and Vanderbilt got a 4-3 walk-off win.
• In the first elimination game, LSU’s Alex Lange pitched a complete game to defeat Cal State-Fullerton and eliminate them from the CWS.
• In the winners bracket game to take control of the group, Vanderbilt’s clean-up hitter Zander Weil hit a solo homer in the 7th to provide the only offense of the night as Vanderbilt beat TCU 1-0 to take control of the group and make it seem more and more likely of a CWS rematch.
• In the play-in game to the group final, TCU punished LSU’s bullpen and took an easy 8-4 win to eliminate the highest seed in the CWS and force a rematch with Vanderbilt for a spot in the CWS final. 
• In the group final, Vanderbilt threw their 1st rounder Walker Buehler for the first time in 3 weeks and he was sparkling; he pitched into the 7th, allowing just 4 hits.  Meanwhile Nats 3rd round pick Rhett Wiseman, after taking a ball to the neck in the 1st, absolutely crushed a homer to put the game out of reach for Vanderbilt, who go on to win 7-1 and advance.

Group winner advancing to the CWS finals: #11 seed Vanderbilt.

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CWS finals discussion: Games 1,2,3 set for 6/22-6/24/15.  Vanderbilt’s pitching staff for the CWS final looks like this:

• Ace Fulmer threw 6 innings and 104pitches on 6/14/15.   He’ll be on 7 days rest for game 1.
• #3 Philip Pfeifer threw 7 innings and 112 pitches on 6/16/15.  He’ll be on 6 days rest for game 2.
• #2 Buehler, who threw 6 2/3rds innings on 6/19/15 would be on 4 days rest for a decider on 6/24/15, normal rest for a pro but a little short for a college guy.  Otherwise, some-time starter John Kilichowski, who threw 2+ in both the 2nd and 3rd games of the CWS group play, could be available depending his usage in the first two games.

Meanwhile, UVA’s pitching staff is in trouble.  Here’s where they stand:

• Connor Jones threw 6ip and 96 pitches on 6/13.  He’d be on 8 days rest for 6/22.
• Kirby threw 2 2/3rds innings and 54 pitches on 6/19.  He’d be on 3 days rest for a 6/23 start.
• Waddell threw 5 innings and 87 pitches on 6/20.  He’d also be on 3 days rest for a potential 6/24 start.

Sborz meanwhile threw multiple innings in each group win: 3IP on 6/13, 2IP on 6/15, and 4ip on 6/20.   And all of those were very high leverage innings, with UVA either tied or clinging to a small lead.  UVA almost has to consider throwing one of its mid-week starters in Game 2.  That would give them Kirby on 4 days rest in the final, to be relieved by Waddell on 3 days rest.  You just can’t take a guy who hasn’t thrown in months and then pitch him back to back on the shortest rest of his life.

You have to like the way the CWS lines up for Vanderbilt’s staff.  Jones wasn’t exactly overpowering against Arkansas in his start (3 runs in 6ip) and Vanderbilt’s got a better offense.

I’m note quite sure how Vanderbilt slipped to an #11 seed in this tournament, given the talent and leadership on their squad.   It is worth noting they had no less than nine draftees in the 2015 draft; 3 first rounders (1st, 8th and 24th overall), 2 third rounders and a 6th of note.  That’s a ton of talent.  You have to think they’re the favorites in the final to repeat.

Prediction: Vanderbilt in 2.

 

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College CWS tournament references:

• d1baseball.com’s daily scoreboard is my go-to link
• Baseball America’s Regional Roundup
• d1baseball’s tournament Post season Index
• d1baseball.com’s Tournament Summary page
• d1baseball’s Regional participant information
• CollegeBaseballDaily.com has coverage as well.
• Ncaa.com’s interactive full 64-team bracket

Here’s our final post on High School baseball for 2015 in the area.  We previously posted updates on:

• DC/MD/VA District High School Tournament Report: Start of the 2015 post-season, which covered MD regionals, VA district brackets, Private school tourney results.
• Maryland State Champs, Northern VA District Champs crowned, which covered, as the title suggests, MD state finals, VA district tourneys, VA regional brackets, DC regular season results
• Virginia Regional Results, DC Tourneys which mostly covered the Virginia Baseball Regional tournaments.

In this post, we will cover the various Player/Teams of the year that have been released, Virginia State tournaments and re-cap MD, DC and private schools.

All the Virginia state tourneys ran the weekend of 6/12/15 to 6/13/15.  All Virginia state brackets available from this link at VHSL.org.

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Player of the Year Awards

Before we get to the Virginia playoff results, some player of the year and all-area teams have been announced.

Gatorade announced their State player of the year awards:

• Maryland: Chopticon’s Ljay Newsome, who pitched the game of his life in the Maryland 3-A championship, won the award in Maryland.  He has yet to declare for a college but was drafted (26th round by Seattle).
• Washington DC: St. John’s A.J. Lee won the award for the 2nd consecutive year.  Committed to Maryland.
• Virginia: The Steward School (Richmond)’s Nic Enright won the award in Virginia.   He’s committed to Virginia Tech.

Louisville Slugger All-Americans announced; Ljay Newsome and A.J. Lee were named to the first team All-American.

Locally, some local player of the year awards:

• The Washington Post’s 2015 All-Met announcement, with mostly familiar names that we’ve discussed in this blog this spring.  A.J. Lee was your All-Met player of the year.  Cody Morris named to his third straight All-Met team despite his Tommy John surgery.
• The Baltimore Sun’s 2015 All-Metro Baseball Team.  Player of the year is Truman Thomas of Southern (2-time defending Maryland 2-A champ).  Ironically Morris was only Baltimore 2nd team.
• Richmond 2015 All-Metro team: pending
• Tidewater area
• All 2015 6-A North region teams via InsideNova.com.  6-A North player of the year was Oakton’s Joe Rizzo, a *junior* who hit over .600 for the season.  He’s an early commit to South Carolina.
• All 2015 6-A South Region team: co-players of the year Bodie Sheehan, First Colonial, a Lefty committed to William & Mary and Nathan Eaton, Thomas Dale, a SS/RHP committed to VMI.
• All 5-A North: Marshall HS C Mitch Blackstone (Cornell commit) named the 5-A player of the year (he was also all-Met).
• All 5-A South: pending
• All 4-A North and 4-A south teams: pending
• All 3-A East: Loudoun Valley’s Jack DeGroat (Liberty) the regional player of the year.
• VHSL All-State Teams: pending
• VISAA’s 2015 All-State teams, Division I, II and III
• Maryland MIAA All-State teams: pending.

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6-A State Finals: held at Robinson and Lake Braddock HS in Northern Virginia (which are odd-choices; Robinson and Lake Braddock’s fields aren’t exactly the nicest available fields in the area.  Nor do they have the largest stands.  But, those are the two biggest high schools around, so perhaps that’s why they were selected.  Of course, in previous years Fairfax HS was frequently used, with its ridiculously short LF porch, so maybe Robinson’s larger field is better.  Most people believe Madison has one of the nicest HS fields in the area … but it rarely gets selected as a host for some reason when the cycle for hosting comes back to NoVa).

• 6-A North: Winner Madison (Vienna) (22-5) , runner-up Chantilly (20-6)
• 6-A South: Winner Western Branch (Chesapeake) (22-3), runner-up First Colonial (Virginia Beach) (21-4)

6-A State Semis Results: Madison pecked away at First Colonial and ended up breezing to a 7-2 victory in the first semi.  Madison’s senior ace Brian Eckert (Radford commit) pitched 6+ innings of one run ball in his final appearance for the Warhawks.  In the nightcap, Chantilly got revenge from last year’s state final and pounded the defending 6-A champ Western Branch 8-3 to make the 6-A state final a rematch of the regional title game and an all-northern Virginia affair.

6-A State Final: In the state final, Madison’s junior lefty Matt Favero started the game … and he finished it.  Madison jumped ahead 3-0 but Favero got knocked out in the 4th after giving up 5 hits and 5 unearned runs.  Madison clawed their way back though, tying the game in the 6th and then loading the bases in the bottom of the 7th with no outs.  There, Favero came up and got the walk-off hit (twitter link to video of the hit) to clinch Madison’s 4th state title (2015, 2002, 1971 and 1968).  Kudos to Chantilly; two straight state finals; their coach (Kevin Ford) deserves his coach of the year accolades.

Madison’s feat is all the more impressive when looking at their lineup; outside of their ace lefty Eckert and one position player, the rest of their starting lineup in the state tournament are underclassmen.  They could be quite dominant in 2016.

6-A State champ: Madison (Vienna) with a 24-5 record on the season.

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5-A State Finals: held at Robinson and Lake Braddock HS in Northern Virginia

• 5-A North: Winner Stone Bridge (Ashburn) (21-5), runner-up Marshall (McLean) (21-5)
• 5-A South: Winner Hickory (Chesapeake) (22-3), runner-up Freeman (NW Richmond) (19-6)

Stone Bridge plays at 3pm at Lake Braddock, Marshall at 7pm.

5-A State Semis Results: As with the 6-A tournament, the 5-A final will be an all-Northern Virginia affair as both local teams won.  Stone Bridge’s Brett Kreyer threw a one-hitter as Stone Bridge beat Freeman 6-0 in one semi.  Marshall took advantage of an ill-timed error that would have ended an inning and a rally and eventually beat the defending champ’s Hickory 7-4.

5-A State Final: In the state final, Stone Bridge fulfilled its “ewing theory” credentials by getting further without J.B. Bukauskas than they ever did with him, handling Marshall 9-4 for its first state title.

5-A State champ: Stone Bridge with a 23-5 record on the season.

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4-A State Finals: held at Liberty University in Lynchburg.

• 4-A North: Winner Jefferson Forest (Forest/Lynchburg) (19-7), Fauquier (Warrenton) (19-6), runner-up (by fft after the fact)
• 4-A South: Winner Glen Allen (N. Richmond) (21-3), runner-up Hanover (N. Richmond)  (18-5)

4-A State Semis Results: Glen Allen took out Fauquier in the first state semi final 6-4, facing the Warrenton team after they had to forfeit their 4-A north final victory and settle for second place.  In the other semi, Jefferson Forest outlasted two-time defending state champion Hanover 4-3 in extra innings.

4-A State Final: In the final, Glen Allen scored four early and was never threatened, beating Jefferson Forest 9-3.

4-A State champ: Glen Allen (N. Richmond) with a 23-3 record on the season.

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3-A State Finals: held at Liberty University in Lynchburg.

• 3-A East: Winner Loudoun Valley (Purcelville) (22-2), Runner-up Lafayette (Williamsburg) (18-6-1) (note: these teams were declared co-champs; the positions must have been determined by a coin-flip).
• 3-A West: Winner Monticello (Charlottesville), runner-up Rustberg (outside of Lynchburg)

3-A State Semis Results: In the first semi, Loudoun Valley upended Rustberg 6-0 with Liberty commit Jack DeGroat throwing a complete game 2-hitter with 17 strikeouts.  On the other side, Lafayette destroyed Monticello 11-0 to setup the state final that should have been the regional final.

3-A State Final: In the state final, Lafayette hit a solo homer for the winning run in the top of the 7th before closing out Purcellville’s Loudoun Valley 5-4 for Lafayette’s first ever state baseball title.

3-A State champ: Lafayette (Williamsburg) with a 20-6-1 record on the season.

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Smaller Classifications: held in Salem and at Radford University.

• 2-A match-ups: Strasburg (corner of I-66 & I-81) (25-1) vs Lebanon (SW corner of Virginia), Virginia High (Bristow) (24-2) vs Maggie Walker (Downtown Richmond).  In the semis, Virginia High ended Maggie Walter’s season 8-3, and Lebanon ended Strasburg’s excellent season 8-2.  In the 2-A West rematch for the state title, Virginia High bashed their way to a 16-8 victory to repeat as Virginia 2-A champs..
• 1-A match-ups: Honaker (SW corner of Virginia) v Lancaster (King George peninsula), William Campbell (Gladys south of Lynchburg) vs Radford.  In the semis, the two 1-A east teams advanced for a rematch, wherein William Campbell turned the tables on Lancaster, winning the 1-A title 16-4.

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Recent Virginia HS champs:  Before 2014, we just covered AAA, which now is split between 4-A, 5-A and 6-A divisions.

2014: see this post for 2014’s state tournament wrap up for all 6 divisions.

• In 6-A, Western Branch d Chantilly 6-4.  McLean and Cosby were state semifinalists.
• In 5-A, Hickory d Freeman 6-4.  Stone Bridge and the surprising Freedom-South Riding semi finalists.
• In 4-A, Hanover d Millbrook 7-1.
• In the smaller classifications, Loudoun Valley (Purcellville) won 3-A, Virginia High (Bristol) won 2-A and Northumberland (Heathesville, on the King George peninsula) won 1-A.

2013 AAA: Hanover d Great Bridge. Hanover’s super-junior Derek Casey (now at UVA) outlasts Great Bridge and their 1st round talent Connor Jones (now UVA’s Friday starter after spurning a likely late 1st round draft position).  Lake Braddock and Oakton beaten in the semis.

2012 AAA: Lake Braddock d Kellam 4-0. Lake Braddock lost to West Springfield in the regional title game but then blitzed to a state championship.

2011 AAA: Great Bridge d South County in the state final, giving the powerful South County its first and only loss on the season after starting the season 28-0.  Lake Braddock was the regional finalist and lost to Great Bridge in the state quarters.

2010 AAA: West Springfield d Woodbridge in the final, giving Woodbridge its only loss on the year. WT Woodson regional finalist.

Complete history of Virginia HS Champions: from VHSL’s website.  Covers all sports and has results for a century.

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Maryland Recap

See previous post for MD state final wrap-ups.  Brackets here at the MPSAA website.

A quick list of past Maryland State champions by division:

• 4-A: 2015: Gaithersburg beat Severna Park 5-3.  2014: Chesapeake beat Sherwood 2-0.  2013: South River defeated Catonsville 6-0.  2012: Northwest.  2011: Westminster.  2010: Sherwood
• 3-A: 2015: Chopticon beat Mt. Hebron 1-0.  2014: Reservoir beat North Harford 2-0.  2013: Bel Air defeated La Plata 3-2.  2012: Bennett.  2011: Bennett.  2010: C. Milton Wright.
• 2-A: 2015: Southern beat Eastern Tech 6-1.  2014: Southern beat Parkside 3-2.  2013 : Catoctin defeated North Caroline, 4-2.  2012: Williamsport.  2011: North Caroline.  2010: North Hagerstown.
• 1-A: 2015: Brunswick beat McDonough 4-0.  2014: Smithsburg beat Sparrows Point 9-0.  2013: Cambridge/South Dorchester defeated Allegany, 15-0.  2012: Mountain Ridge.  2011:  St. Michaels.  2010: St. Michaels.

The Maryland public high school seasons are now complete.

 

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DC Public Schools/DCIAA/DCSAA Recaps

• DCIAA: Wilson won its 23rd consecutive DCIAA regular season title, extending its city league winning streak in the process.  DCIAA tournament supposedly ran through 6/3/15, though I cannot find any evidence that it occurred.  Perhaps it has been replaced in total by the DCSAA tourney.
  
• DCSAA:  In the DCSAA final, Gonzaga beat St. Albans 2-1 at Nats Park on a controversial interference call that turned a tag-out at the plate into the decisive run.

 

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Private Leagues: WCAC/MAC/IAC and VISAA/Maryland Private

• MIAA: Class A: Spalding beat Calvert Hill.  Class B: St. Mary’s-Annapolis.  Class C: St. John’s Catholic Prep repeated.
• VISAA: Liberty Christian repeated as the VISAA Division 1 champ.  Greenbriar Christian took the Division 2 title and the Southampton Academy took the Division 3 title among smaller Virginia private schools.
• WCAC: St. Johns (DC) topped DeMatha in a 3-game series to win the WCAC for the 2nd year in a row.  (Not the same St. Johns as who won MIAA).
• IAC: Georgetown Prep beat Landon to win the IAC, avenging their loss in the finals last year.
• PVAC: Sandy Spring Friends defeated Jewish Day school for the inaugural title in this fledgling league.
• MAC:  the Potomac school beat St. James (who upset #1 seed and defending champ Flint Hill) in the final.
• Maryland Private School Tournament: DeMatha beat Riverdale Baptist.

All local area Private schools’ seasons are now complete.

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Local and National High School Baseball Ranking Lists:

• Washington Post All Met Sports Final Baseball top 10: Updated/finalized 6/17/15 at the end of the spring prep season.  Madison 1, Gaithersburg 2.  If I had ranked them, I likely would have gone Madison 1, Gaithersburg 2, Spalding 3, Stone Bridge 4, Chopticon 5, Chantilly 6, Loudoun Valley 7, St. Johns 8, Oakton 9 and Marshall 10.  Battlefield HM.  I was pretty close.
• Baltimore Sun Final Rankings page : dated 5/25/15: They also have Spalding #1, then Calvert Hall, St. Marys, 4-A finalist Severna Park and then 3-A finalist Mt. Hebron.  Reservoir 6th.
• Hampton Roads Baseball top 10 page: dated 5/19/15: Western Branch #1, then Grassfield, Hickory and First Colonial.  Needs updating.
• Baseball America’s High School top 50 (Final ranking 6/17/15): Madison #24 in final poll, Stone Bridge #42.
• USA Today High School top 25 (most recent ranking 6/17/15): Madison at #36, Liberty Christian #43, Spalding #44 and Western Branch #49.
• MaxPreps top 25/top 50 lists, which has a hand-picked and a computer/power ranking list.  6/15/15 rankings.  No DC/MD/VA teams in MaxPrep’s “Excellent 50.”  Highest ranked teams in the extended rankings are Liberty Christian at #71, Chopticon at #95.  Madison is in the #400s, making one question these rankings slightly.

Resources:

• Washington Post’s AllMetSports section with standings and schedule results.
• InsideNova.com‘s coverage of high school sports, but has put limits on the number of stories you can read.
• Richmond Times-Dispatch has a HS scoreboard.
• Hampton Roads Pilot (Hampton Roads) has scores for teams in the Chesapeake/Norfolk/Va Beach area.
• The Baltimore Sun’s high school page has information on some of the programs outside the DC area mentioned in the Maryland section
• The Connection family of newspapers has a sports section that is rarely updated, but it does do some coverage.
• Nvdaily.com (Strasburg) has some results for some of the teams in the smaller conferences/outskirts of DC, generally in the Strasburg area.
• WinchesterStar (Winchester) has results for Winchester teams but its pay-only.
• The Daily Progress (Culpeper local paper) also has some scores for schools in its areas.
• Fauquier Times (Fauquier) has some local sports news.
• VivaLoudoun tracks the Loudoun/Ashburn/Leesburg teams.
• The Loudoun Times also covers Leesburg-area teams.
• LoCosports blog, with tons of Loudoun county Coverage
• Fredericksburg.com has some local coverage of Fredericksburg and Woodbridge teams.
• The Lynchburg News & Advance for Lynchburg-based sports.
• The Virginia Gazette for Williamsburg local stuff.
• I use perfectgame.org to look up high-end HS prospects.
• VHSL’s and MPSSAA home pages for playoff brackets and updates for VA and MD respectively.
• MaxPreps DC/VA specific coverage.