It was just a couple weeks ago (January 9th to be exact) when Baseball America released its top 30 list for the Nats system. I reviewed it then in depth, as the first major pundit to release a top 30 rankings for our system.
So much has happened since that they had to update it.
Between the IFA signing period (where we spread around our $6M plus bonus pool on several highly-regarded prospects) and the Mackenzie Gore trade (which netted us five guys, four of which are now in our top 30), our top 30 now looks a bit different. Here’s where our new acquisitions slot into BA’s list, and who they pushed out at the bottom:
- New #5: Fien, Gavin, the star of the Gore trade. The $4.8M first round SS from last year will compete with our own $8.2M first round SS Willits for playing time in Fredericksburg this year. Though his size likely puts him immediately at 3B.
- New #9: Fitz-Gerald, Devin, the $900k 2024 SS will … also compete for playing time in Low-A this year.
- New #16: Rosario, Alejandro, the RHP pitcher who just had TJ and won’t pitch until spring 2027 at best.
- New #22: Cabrera, Yeremy*, the speedy 20-yr old CF with 43 steals last season.
- New #23: Serrano, Samil*, the headliner of our 2026 IFA class.
These 5 guys pushed down the formerly 26-30th ranked players:
- New #31: Alvarez, Andrew*, the under the radar lefty control arm who pitched really well in SSS last year in the majors.
- New #32: Glasser, Phillip*, our ML hitter of the year who got a NRI this season but who faces an uphill challenge for playing time.
- New #33: De La Cruz, Nauris, who signed for a pittance in the 2025 IFA class but who bashed the DSL last year.
- New #34: Cortesia, Brayan, who signed for a massive amount in the 2025 IFA class and who is higher on a lot of lists right now.
- New #35: McGarry, Griff, our Rule-5 pick whose pathway to being in the rotation just eased with the Gore trade.
Also newly acquired this month and presumably in the mix in this 30-40 range right now: our three other 7-figure signings from the 2026 IFA class (Suarez, Isalas, Ramirez, Angel#, and Duran, Juan) and the 5th prospect in the Gore trade Ortiz, Abimelec*, who sits 24th on MLBPipeline’s rankings right now and who might have an inside track to the starting 1B job in 2026.
I may have been critical of the Gore trade initially, but there’s a reason pundits mostly across the board liked it. These pundits may be overlooking the risk of the former Texas prospects, but the moves certainly strengthen the overall farm.
Now that we’re at the end of January, we should get ready for a ton of prospect content to come out soon. The next month should give us Keith Law, MLBPipeline, and Kiley McDaniel’s rankings. The last major pundit out there (Fangraphs/Longenhagen) has been pushing his ranks into the summer lately.
I think you can recognize that the top 3 names in the trade are absolutely FV45s or better who belong in the top 12 or 15 of even a pretty strong system like ours, and still think the return was disappointing.
The side taking on risk and deferring wins into the future should not lose in the expected surplus WAR calculation and, based on all the public facing information, we did.
If we want even up the trade, we have to believe some combination of (1) Gore isn’t as valuable as the public projection systems think (I don’t think this sounds plausible), (2) Gore’s 2027 was discounted by lockout risk (Maybe? But so few players with multiple years of control are traded that it’s hard to really tell.), and (3) Fien and/or Rosario are more valuable than the consensus evaluations (which is certainly possible but it’s hard to know how much weight to give it, because that kind of logic and deference to the team’s proprietary information can justify anything).
I will say that Rosario, in particular, is interesting to me. We all see 2 missed years and think irregular TJ and drop him 2 grades (from FV55 to FV45) – but Toboni saw the medicals. Maybe it’s a lot closer to a normal TJ with typical recovery expectations than we think and he’s still being valued as a backend top 100 guy. You put an FV50 on him or Fien and all of a sudden the trade looks a lot better.
SMS
29 Jan 26 at 12:14 pm
SMS, your point about the lockout got me thinking: now that minor leaguers are members of MLBPA, does this mean MILB will also halt if a lockout occurs at the major league level?
To add to that, if this is the case, scenario 2 isn’t really relevant, as a lockout would also have a cost to the 5 acquired players’ development path too, right? We all saw how 2020 in some cases ended, or seriously derailed, some prospects progress.
Will
29 Jan 26 at 2:20 pm
I am certainly not an expert, but I don’t think that the CBAs are on the same timeline. And I think that means it would take a separate labor action – either the owners also locking out the minor league players or the minor leaguers deciding to strike in solidarity – for MiLB to be interrupted.
And while neither of those are impossible, I’m not actually seeing the strategic edge for any party, so I think it’s unlikely.
SMS
29 Jan 26 at 3:44 pm
SMS, do you have a link for the expected WAR calculation that you referred to?
John C.
29 Jan 26 at 4:23 pm
On the Gore side, it’s pretty straightforward. Zips has his median projection at 3.0 WAR for 26 and 27. I figure his arb3 salary will be in the $12M range, which means that he’s getting paid ~$18M for 6 expected WAR, a $30M surplus value (at $8M per WAR).
The prospect side is a bit trickier, since we have to decide what the FVs are, but I don’t think I’m underselling the consensus to call the package 1 FV45+ (Fien), 2 FV45s (Rosario and Fitz-Gerald) and 2 FV40s (Ortiz and Cabrera). If that sounds right to you, FG’s estimates that total package to be worth 8+4+6+2+2 = $22M.
(I’m pulling those numbers off the top of their Farm System Rankings chart, and – to be fair – they’re based on research from several years ago and could be somewhat outdated.)
SMS
29 Jan 26 at 5:12 pm
Interesting and relatively sophisticated take on the trade here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BrjMtwa8xy0
Concludes that it’s probably a fair trade for both sides after discussing some alternative evaluations of the key prospects.
Bruce
30 Jan 26 at 2:00 am
Thanks for sharing Bruce. Really interesting. I think he covered both perspectives really well, and gave some good sinight into what Toboni might have a higher value on these guys than others.
Will
30 Jan 26 at 6:41 am
Yeah, that was an interesting video. Thanks for sharing it, Bruce.
Still, it didn’t really make me feel all that much better about the trade.
One, he slightly lowballs Gore for some reason. FG lists 4 independent projections for 2026, and Gore’s are 2.5, 2.7, 3.0, and 3.0. Zips is the only one where the 2027 projection is immediately available, and it gives him a 3.0, which would be no change YoY. I tend to lean on Zips anyway, but even taking the average that would be 2.8 in 2026 and 2027 – 0.8 more WAR and $8M more surplus value using his $10M/WAR.
And this is even before his commentary about Gore possibly being undervalued by projection systems because of our terrible catchers and his improvable pitch mix.
Two, of course if you value every major piece of the trade as a half grade or more better than the consensus, the deal will look better for the nationals! (Though even his “Toboni” valuation is barely in the Nats favor when you use the average projection for Gore and isn’t in the Nats’ favor at all if you just use Zips.)
Third, I think his creation of the 45+/50 borderline is a misstep. The FV45+ tier is already that “borderline”. And the reason the valuations jump so nonlinearly in this FV45 to FV50 range is precisely that the bust rate (<1 career WAR) falls from something like 80% to closer to 50%. Young players like Fien and Fitz-Gerald and players with injury complications like Rosario are exactly the type of high risk FV45s that make those calculations correct. At least in Rosario's case, you can see the star potential. But do Fien or Fitz-Gerald actually have atypical upside? I don't see it.
It was an interesting video, and it very well might be an accurate portrayal of what Toboni was thinking, but I remain a skeptic and would not have traded Gore for this package.
SMS
30 Jan 26 at 11:55 am
Interesting points, SMS. I don’t really have a dog in this fight, but your concerns seem reasonable.
That said, even if the Nats’ return grades out lower than Gore on the usual “consensus” boards, the trade can still make sense. For one thing, the Nationals’ internal valuations may simply differ from the public ones. The new leadership group appears to be very forward‑leaning analytically. And Toboni, in particular, reportedly was all‑in on Fien back in Boston, so he likely has a deeper read on the player than most outside evaluators. Also, he’s been explicit about how heavily he weighs makeup — something those consensus rankings don’t capture at all.
Even if Toboni’s grades line up with the public lists, and even if the makeup isn’t exceptional, this still may have been the best offer available. He’s presumably seen the full range of proposals. Other teams may have been wary of Gore’s second‑half slide, or simply unwilling or unable to match what Texas put on the table.
Who knows. But I’m encouraged that Toboni seems committed to a long‑term rebuild. As I’ve said elsewhere, that’s the most realistic path to sustained competitiveness—and eventually, another World Series run.
Bruce
30 Jan 26 at 3:42 pm
Yeah – that’s all fair enough.
I don’t want to be too negative about it, either. Toboni has a lot more and better information than I do or any of the public-facing evaluators for that matter, and if 2 of these kids make it and they produce 10 WAR combined, I’ll be happy to come back and say I was wrong and in Toboni I trust.
It’s just weird that the equation doesn’t balance, and that the public consensus on the trade doesn’t line up with that imbalance. Like, if all the pundits were saying “We think the Rangers got a steal, but Toboni has wanted Fien from the jump and he liked this package better than others that we might have preferred”, I don’t think I’d have any more questions.
SMS
30 Jan 26 at 7:59 pm
So … just as soon as we had a ton of backup infielder depth on the 40-man …. poof, now we don’t. Both Gasper and Chang were DFA’d 2 days after being claimed.
Todd Boss
30 Jan 26 at 10:01 pm
Todd, let’s wait to see if they get claimed.
Toboni has really leaned into this waiver game. We’ve been making a claim like every other day. I don’t recall Rizzo ever doing this.
Let’s see how it pans out. Some of these guys Toboni is claiming are worse than some of the MILB FA signings we’ve made that have basically not been reported on. The newest claim, George Soriano, has a career 5.95 ERA (including 8.35 ERA last season). These aren’t potential gems, but generic organizational depth pieces.
Will
31 Jan 26 at 5:14 am
This podcast won’t make anyone more comfortable with the Gore trade: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/podcasts/the-btv-podcast-episode-132-dealing-aces#google_vignette
However, this video might. It’s hard to know how to factor in makeup, but you can see why Toboni likes Fien, and why some have compared him to Ryan Zimmerman. He should be easy to root for. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F5DJXnXOEZk&t=1109s
Bruce
1 Feb 26 at 6:39 pm