Nationals Arm Race

"… the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same – pitching.” — Earl Weaver

2022 Patented NAR MVP Predictor


A couple of years ago, in a pique of sarcasm, I wrote up an automated system for MVP voting. I should trade mark it. Lets see how my system works for 2022.

And with today’s announcement of the Top 3 finalists for each award, I thought i’d post my official MVP predictor piece for 2022.

This list of steps allows you to quickly pick the top 8-10 MVP vote getters in each league each season as a way to predict the award.
1. Make list of best teams in league/division winners.
2. Identify the “most famous” and/or Best hitter on each team.
3. Check WAR lists and league leaders for candidates not on winning teams, or “famous” players with solid seasons.
4. Add in incredibly dominant pitchers, especially if they’re from a team that doesn’t have a real dominant hitter.
5. Apply appropriate ‘weights” for East coast players over West coast, especially if the player is with New York or Boston (I call this the Media adjustment). Also weight small market players lower than larger market, more famous players.
6. Apply appropriate “discounts” for non-division winning players and those who have already won (I call this the “Narrative” adjustment).

Lets apply my system for this year.

NAR MVP Predictor for the AL 2022 MVP

#1/2: Best teams and their best Hitter:

  • New York Yankees: Aaron Judge
  • Houston: Yordan Alvarez
  • Cleveland: Jose Ramirez
  • Toronto: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
  • Seattle: Julio Rodriguez
  • Tampa Bay: (nobody: you couldn’t pick their WAR leaders out of a lineup)

#3: Add in the following names based on WAR league leaders

  • Shohei Ohtani, Angels (2nd in WAR)
  • Andres Gimenez, Cleveland (3rd in the league in WAR, more than his more famous teammate Ramirez)
  • Mike Trout, Angels (8th in the league in WAR)
  • Carlos Correa, Minnesota (10th in league in batter WAR)

#4; Add in best pitchers

  • Alex Manoah, Toronto: #2 pitcher in bWAR, but for a playoff team.
  • Dylan Cease, White Sox: #1 pitcher in bWAR

#5 Add in Media adjustments

Ramp weight up for New York-based Judge, Increase weights for “famous” players Ohtani, Trout, Guerrero, Alvarez. Weight down Seattle and Cleveland players.

#6: Ohtani and Trout will lose points thanks to the Angel’s continued futility.

Results? Here’s my bold prediction on the AL MVP voting:

  1. Judge
  2. Ohtani
  3. Alvarez
  4. Guerrero
  5. Rodriguez
  6. Manoah
  7. Trout
  8. Ramierz
  9. Gimenez
  10. Correa

Perhaps in 2022, with Judge’s historic HR chase, his Triple Crown chase, and his 10+ WAR season, its a no-brainer. But Ohtani is arguably having a better season than he had in 2021, so you never know.

ACTUAL RESULTS: tbd (will add in post announcement and judge my predictions)

NAR MVP Predictor for the NL 2022 MVP

#1/2: Best teams and their best Hitter:

  • Los Angeles: Freddie Freeman
  • Atlanta: Austin Riley
  • New York Mets: Pete Alonso
  • St. Louis: Paul Goldschmidt
  • San Diego: Manny Machado
  • Philadelphia: J.T. Realmuto
  • Milwaukee: (nobody really)

#3: Add in the following names based on WAR league leaders

  • Mookie Betts: LAD
  • Nolan Arenado: STL
  • Francisco Lindor, NYM

#4; Add in best pitchers

  • Sandy Alcantara, Miami
  • Max Fried, NY Mets

#5 Add in Media adjustments

Ramp weight up for New York-based Alonso. Ramp up weight for the famous players like Machado, Gldschmidt, Betts, Freeman. Lower weights for Realmuto, Riley

#6: Alcantara loses points playing for loser Miami.

Results? Here’s my bold prediction on the NL MVP voting, which is significantly tougher to predict this year than the AL.

  1. Goldschmidt
  2. Machado
  3. Arenado
  4. Alcantara
  5. Realmuto
  6. Riley
  7. Freeman
  8. Betts
  9. Lindor
  10. Alonso

ACTUAL RESULTS: tbd (will add in post announcement and judge my predictions)

Written by Todd Boss

November 8th, 2022 at 1:03 pm

Posted in Awards

3 Responses to '2022 Patented NAR MVP Predictor'

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  1. Judge is the mortal lock of the century. The more interesting thing with him is whether there’s really any market for the outrageous contract that everyone thinks he’s going to get. He’s only managed to stay healthy for two full monster seasons, five years apart. He turns 31 in April and is already a negative defensively. He’s also prone to a high K%, which tends to rise in one’s 30s. BABIP in 2022 was a very “lucky” .340 was well. I’m not trying to argue that he’s a bad player. But does a team really want to be paying this guy almost $40M a year to be their DH starting in three or four years and continuing until he’s 40? It’s difficult to think of a long contract with any big hitter running into the late 30s that has ended well.

    In the NL, Goldy seems like a good certainty, particularly with no big candidates from NYC or LA.


    10 Nov 22 at 10:42 am

  2. Some interesting decisions coming soon for the Nats. There are two things hitting today (11/10) by 5 p.m. One is that guys coming off the 60-day IL have to be added to the 40-man. They have six of those, and 35 on the 40-man. That’s right, despite having the crappiest team in the majors, they’re already more than full. It sure seems like a good time to DFA someone like Antuna, who another team isn’t likely to add to their 40-man right now. (And if one does, no great loss.)

    Another play would be to anticipate the non-tender date next Friday (11/18) and go on and release Voit and Fedde. Can’t see them paying Voit $8M, and Fedde’s nine lives are up.

    Even doing that wouldn’t clear them much space, though. And here’s the other part of that pickle. Today is also the day to add guys to the 40-man who can become minor-league free agents. I’m not sure who is in that group, but I pretty sure Jake Noll is, Fuentes, maybe Nick Banks. I’m sure there are some others.

    Further pickle is that this coming Tuesday (11/15) is the deadline to add guys to the 40-man to protect them from Rule 5 exposure. It seems likely that they’ll at least add Rutledge, even though he has been spinning his wheels at low A. With the roster so tight, I’m guessing that they won’t add Denaburg. There are some guys farther up the chain who might have a chance to stick elsewhere, like Troop or Irvin.

    Of course the other problems with having the 40-man so full include not being able to draft anyone in Rule 5, and having no room to add free agents (although corresponding roster moves for those can be made at any time).

    So some things are about to happen . . .


    10 Nov 22 at 1:41 pm

  3. Nats waive Tres Barrera and Francisco Perez. Barrera cleared waivers and outrighted to Rochester. Pineda’s rise made him expendable. Barrera does still have one option left if he makes it back on the 40-man.

    I think this leaves the Nats with 39 on the 40-man, although more likely will be waived before the Rule 5 deadline next week.


    10 Nov 22 at 7:07 pm

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