Nationals Arm Race

"… the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same – pitching.” — Earl Weaver

CWS 2022: Regionals Recap and Super-Regionals preview


Here’s a quick recap of the Regionals, which saw an astounding 9 of the 16 competitions head to the “extra” game. An exciting post-season so far for sure.

These are ordered by the national seeds/regional matchups. So instead of doing them alphabetically or in order of national seed, they’re done 1-16, 8-9, etc.

Resources/links I use heavily during CWS time:

Quick predictions for the 16 regionals, ordered by National Seed super Regional matchup. Bold = winner

  • #1 Tennessee had to dig deep to avoid going the extra game against Georgia Tech, but advanced. The regional ended up chalk, but Campbell as a #3 seed got the early upset of GaTech.
  • #16 Georgia Southern was upset as expected by ACC’s Notre Dame and finished third behind them and Texas Tech in a clear indictment of the tournament seeding’s decision not to give Notre Dame the host site.
  • #8 East Carolina made it to the winner’s bracket but was stretched to the extra game by Coastal Carolina, who took out UVA to make it 1-3 in the end. It didn’t matter: Coastal couldn’t repeat their magic from 2016 and lost in game 7.
  • #9 Texas advanced without losing a game, but it was 4th seed Air Force who made the regional final. Bravo to the service academy for going that far and taking out a couple of baseball powerhouses.
  • #5 Texas A&M takes advantage of a soft regional and advanced without losing a game.
  • #12 Louisville was upset early by #3 seed Michigan, but blew them out 20-1 to force the Monday game 7, where they held on for an 11-9 win.
  • #4 Virginia Tech cruised through its regional, taking out #3 Ivy winner Columbia in the final.
  • #13 Florida came back from a game down to force the Monday finisher with Oklahoma, while local team Liberty goes two-and-out. In game 7, Oklahoma took out the host and advanced.
  • #3 Oregon State was stretched to the Monday finish by Vanderbilt, who lost their first game but blew out the competition to get to regional game 7. There, Vandy’s luck ran out and Oregon State avoided the huge upset.
  • #14 Auburn battered its way to the title, winnings its games 19-7, 21-7, and 9-0, the last game of which was interrupted by rain.
  • #6 Miami won its opener, but them lost two straight to not even advance to the regional final. Instead, a Monday game will decide between Ole Miss and Arizona in a battle of college baseball royalty. The final game turned out to be a laugher, as Ole Miss destroyed Arizona 22-6 to move on.
  • #11 Southern Miss was beaten in the winner’s bracket by LSU, but fought back to force Monday game. IN game 7, Southern Miss held on for a back and forth battle to win.
  • #7 Oklahoma State and Arkansas didn’t show a ton of defense en route to a monday final; Oklahoma State’s games were 10-5, 12-20, 29-15, and 14-10. In the final game, Arkansas won with a more reasonable score of 7-3 to move on.
  • #10 UNC was stretched to a Monday game by #3 seed VCU. However, UNC held on to advance.
  • #2 Stanford lost early to Texas State, but came back to force a Monday finish. A concerning wobble for the #2 overall seed. In that final, Stanford needed a captivating 9th inning come back to walk off the win.
  • #15 Maryland had to go extras to force the Monday finisher against Big East perennial powerhouse UConn. There, UConn got the big win and moved on.

Fun facts:

  • Not ONE #1 seed lost on day one. That’s gotta be a first.
  • Highest Seed out: #6 Miami
  • Nine of the Sixteen regionals stretched to game seven.
  • Most dominant Regional win: Either Texas A&M or Auburn.
  • Worst showing by #1 seed: Georgia Southern or Miami. Probably Miami, the highest seed to lose.
  • Best showing by #4 Seed: Air Force Academy

Super Regionals:

  • #1 Tennessee hosts Notre Dame: Tennessee is on a run, though Notre Dame is the kind of senior team that can stretch them.
  • #8 ECU hosts #9 Texas: I’m favoring the big12 school here; they are clicking.
  • #5 TAMU versus #12 Louisville: i think the SEC team has the advantage here.
  • #4 Virginia Tech vs Oklahoma: Tech may be the seed, but Oklahoma may be the better team.
  • #3 Oregon State vs #14 Auburn: I’m thinking Auburn has the advantage here. I just don’t rate Pac12 teams in college baseball right now.
  • Ole Miss vs #11 Southern Miss: Love this all-Mississippi matchup. Ole Miss is the SEC power, but they’ have to go to their junior cousin to win.
  • Arkansas vs #10 UNC: UNC is the seed and host, but Arkansas is the hot hand
  • #2 Stanford vs UConn; Uconn has to fly 3000 miles for this one; can they push the Pac12 champ?

Conference representation in the Super Regionals:

  • SEC 5: Tennessee, TAMU, Auburn, Ole Miss, Arkansas
  • ACC 4: Notre Dame, Louisville, Virginia Tech, UNC
  • AAC: 1: ECU
  • C-USA: 1: Southern Miss
  • Big East: 1: UConn
  • Big12: 2: Texas, Oklahoma
  • Pac12: 2: Oregon State, Stanford

As expected, heavy on the two big baseball conferneces … and the two Big12 teams are moving to the SEC soon.

Predictions: Tennessee, Texas, TAMU, Oklahoma, Auburn, Ole Miss, Arkansas, Stanford.

Written by Todd Boss

June 7th, 2022 at 9:11 am

Posted in Nats in General

8 Responses to 'CWS 2022: Regionals Recap and Super-Regionals preview'

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  1. Campbell destroyed Ga Tech and gave Tennessee a scare before running out of gas. I was not surprised they lost the rematch as they emptied the bullpen the night before. But that was a very good team.

    If the Nats end up with Parada I’ll be happy. No question he can be an outfielder. Harper was a catcher after all.


    7 Jun 22 at 1:36 pm

  2. BTW, you picked five SEC teams plus two schools about to join the SEC in Texas and Oklahoma. That’s seven of the eight. It’s not just football dominance that’s on the horizon.


    7 Jun 22 at 1:39 pm

  3. Kevin Parada of Georgia Tech, to whom the Nats are linked in several mock drafts at #5, had a few hits in the regional but no more homers, so he finished with a still-terrific 26 in 60 games. Slash of .361/.453/.709, 30 walks to only 32 K’s, 10 doubles, 88 RBIs, and a Robles-esque 15 HBP. His double total seems a little low, but he had 20 in 52 games in his freshman season, to only nine homers. So presumably some of those liners in the gap flew a little farther this season.


    7 Jun 22 at 1:47 pm

  4. Didn’t see Fred’s post before also mentioning Parada. As for a potential shift to LF, Parada stole 11 bases this season in 12 attempts, so presumably he has better wheels than Schwarber (a low bar, I know). has a 40 grade on Parada’s speed and says that he “runs well for a catcher.”

    As I’ve previously noted, it makes no sense for the Nats to draft Parada as a catcher, with Ruiz and Adams already looking like a long-controlled MLB combo. But if they want to draft Parada as the best college bat, particularly best power bat, then I don’t have a problem with it. Nearly all the other potential top 10 college hitters have positional issues as well, and none probably has the same level of power. (Some may dream on Jacob Berry, but his actual results haven’t been as loud. He also hasn’t stolen any bases, making me question his OF potential.)


    7 Jun 22 at 3:50 pm

  5. Kiley McDaniel on the Nats at #5: “It sounds like Lee, Parada and Green are the options here, and I think in that order, but it isn’t clear yet.” A lot of mocks have Lee going either #1 or #4. Lee has excellent overall hitting skills, but the Nats have invested heavily in the INF, so I’m not sure where he would fit/project. All likely won’t pan out, but they’ve spent a lot of money on House, Cruz, Infante, Garcia, Kieboom (insert snicker here), and Antuna (louder laugh here, already moved out of INF).


    8 Jun 22 at 9:01 am

  6. From Fangraphs (Longenhagen): “Also set to return to a big league rotation is Nationals righty Stephen Strasburg, who has made three rehab starts with Triple-A Rochester, also on four days rest, recovering from thoracic outlet surgery. While he’s still showing plus secondary stuff, especially his changeup, his velocity has been way down, hovering in the 88–92 range with poor shape. Of all the pitchers who I’ll cover today, he’s the only one who hasn’t looked anything like himself.”

    Doesn’t sound great, though Stras’s offspeed is so good that I suspect he can still be reasonably effective at lower velos. Latter day Grienke is the best case scenario, right?


    8 Jun 22 at 2:22 pm

  7. That’s a head-scratching write-up, for a couple of reasons. First, Stras made only one of his three rehab starts with Rochester. Second, his results in that game were dominant, or close to it. He allowed one hit in six innings. He allowed no hits in five innings in his second start at Frederickburg.

    There was some chatter at NatsTalk that Stras’s velo was higher in at least one of the FBurg starts. There was also some questioning of how reliable the radar guns in minor-league parks might be. Who knows?

    But yes, the hope has to be that Stras can find a way to be an effect pitcher even if he no longer has full sizzle. He turns 34 next month and is still owed $140 million over the next four seasons. Velo ain’t everything anyway, as Adon is averaging 95 on his heater, but it’s leaving bats even harder than that. (The Adon experiment continues to be embarrassing.)

    Then once Stras figures out how to be an effective junkballer, maybe he can show Corbin . . .


    8 Jun 22 at 6:54 pm

  8. I’m going to post my Mock draft early collection, since we seem to be talking about it.

    Todd Boss

    9 Jun 22 at 3:09 pm

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