Lost in the CWS and draft content shuffle, we got an updated top 30 from Baseball America last week. We don’t get too many mid-season revampings of the top 30 Prospects, especially from some of the main pundits (who have lots of other stuff to cover mid-season, like draft scouting), but Baseball America has made it happen. So here’s their 6/6/25 updated Nats top 30.
This is worth a recap post, because there’s a huge amount of change and churn here. They haven’t just graduated a couple players and moved everyone else up a slot. They’ve really given some thought to moving players around, enough so that I’m going to list where they’re ranked now and where they were back in January.
| Rank | Jan 25 Rank | Last Name | First Name | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | Sykora | Travis | RHP (Starter) |
| 2 | 3 | Susana | Jarlin | RHP (Starter) |
| 3 | 4 | House | Brady | SS/3B |
| 4 | 6 | Clemmey | Alex | LHP (Starter) |
| 5 | 11 | Dickerson | Luke | SS/CF |
| 6 | 10 | Lile | Daylen | OF (CF) |
| 7 | 7 | Cavalli | Cade | RHP (Starter) |
| 8 | 5 | King | Seaver | SS |
| 9 | 8 | Lomavita | Caleb | C |
| 10 | 12 | Hassell III | Robert | OF (CF) |
| 11 | 13 | Bennett | Jake | LHP (Starter) |
| 12 | 22 | Morales | Yohandy | 3B |
| 13 | 15 | Feliz | Angel | 3B/SS |
| 14 | 40+ | Henry | Cole | RHP (Starter) |
| 15 | 29 | Lord | Brad | RHP (Starter) |
| 16 | 9 | Wallace | Cayden | 2B/3B |
| 17 | 14 | Bazzell | Kevin | C/3B |
| 18 | 17 | Cortesia | Brayan | SS |
| 19 | 25 | Stuart | Tyler | RHP (Starter) |
| 20 | 36 | Kent | Jackson | LHP (Starter) |
| 21 | 26 | Hernandez | Daniel | C |
| 22 | 19 | Lara | Andry | RHP (Starter) |
| 23 | 40+ | Riley | Cornelio | RHP (Starter) |
| 24 | 35 | Tejada Jr. | Yoel | RHP (Reliever) |
| 25 | 40+ | Mota | Jorgelys | SS |
| 26 | 16 | Pinckney | Andrew | OF (Corner) |
| 27 | 40+ | Davian | Garcia | RHP (Starter) |
| 28 | 23 | Green | Elijah | OF (CF) |
| 29 | 28 | Vaquero | Cristian | OF (CF) |
| 30 | 24 | Cranz | Robert | RHP (Reliever) |
So, lets get into it:
- Jan 2025’s #1 Crews has graduated, of course.
- 2-3-4 from January just moved up a spot each, making Sykora our #1 on their list. It’s the first time Sykora has officially been #1 on any list that I track or am aware of.
- Seaver King, despite being promoted recently takes a dip on their list, dropping from #5 to #8. Fair. He’s not had the glitzy pro debut we were hoping for.
- Dickerson gets a huge bump with his impressive pro debut, which has already resulted in a promotion.
- Lile gets credit for his excellent 2025 season, which has resulted in his graduation to the majors, and gets ranked at #6, the highest he’s been on any list either. He hasn’t been hitting necessarily awesome in his majors stint, but lots of players struggle in their debut.
- Morales, as we discussed ad naseum during the off-season, had been relatively unfairly dropped on a lot of lists for a hand injury that we know takes a while to come back from … well he’s back. He’s now in AAA, and BA jumped him 10 spots from January to June.
- Cole Henry! Outside BA’s top 40 six months ago, now he’s firmly in the MLB bullpen and listed at #14 here, one spot ahead of Lord, which … well, come on, who is more valuable to the MLB team? A guy who throws an inning every other day or a guy who has proven he can pitch in the rotation or in relief at the MLB level? Honestly, it won’t matter in a couple of months b/c both seem set to graduate from the prospect ranks soon anyway.
- Wallace gets dumped a slew of spots. Fair. He’s struggled this year and has done nothing to show any improvement or any push upwards.
- Bazzell only dropped a few spots: surprised he’s not penalized more for his slow pro start
- Jackson Kent gets due recognition for the solid start to his pro career in High-A.
- Riley Cornelio makes his debut on any prospect list anywhere, coming in at #23. After years of mediocre ERAs and stats, he’s put it together so far in 2025, and is now in AA.
- Yoel Tejeda, the FSU draftee from last year, is dealing in Low-A. The above table lists him as a Reliever initally, but he’s proven to be a solid starter so far in 2025. He may get a promotion to High-A at the mid-season at this rate.
- Davian Garcia is another Low-A 2024 starter who’s holding his own. His numbers aren’t quite as good as Tejeda, but the FGCU 6th rounder certainly has promise. Also as with Cornelio, this is first time on any prospect list.
- Pinckney and Green take understandable dips on the rankings. Though Pinckney is in AAA, he’s struggling. Green has been mysteriously non-transacted to XST, perhaps the team finally fed up with his 2K/game rate.
- Super reliever prospect Cranz, inexplicably ranked #24 in January, hangs on to the last spot at #30. I’m not sure why they dumped him so far: he’s got a .108 BAA so far as the closer in Low-A.
Highest guys on my ranking not to be mentioned here:
- Hurtado our big 2024 IFA bonus guy, still in DSL. Its early.
- Glove-first SS guys like Ramirez Jr., Made; still not really hitting.
- Armando Cruz, our big 2021 IFA bonus guy, struggling in Wilmington.
- Alvarez; may have been opening day starter in AAA but seems not to really be a prospect.
- Brzycky: BA had him #21 earlier this year and he’s been promoted; why dump him based on 11 MLB innings? He hasn’t graduated. I dunno.
- 4-A types like Baker, Nunez, Chapparo. I think BA thinks of them as spare parts as opposed to prospects.
- Millas: #18 in January, not out of the top 30. Interesting. I know theres plenty of people who think Millas is better than Adams who read this … he’s basically done nothing this year.
- Lastly, most of the guys in the BA 31-40 range from January are nowhere to be found on the new list; probably still treading water in that range on their internal lists.
Glad to see this. There’s been a lot of movement with our top prospects this year, so glad to see this get recognized.
Interesting to see Clemmey basically hold his place. The tools sure are tantalizing, but he’s currently walking 7.8 batters per 9 IP. That has “high likelihood of turning into a reliever” written all over him if he can’t significantly rein in his command. However, he is doing this as a 19 year old in High A… so I get it. But I wouldn’t have been surprised to see him drop a little like King.
Bennett’s placement I don’t understand. He’s injured again. Whatever slightly advanced age based projectability is long gone. He’s now 24.5 in A ball and thats assuming this injury doesn’t drag on for the whole season like Cavalli’s did last year. He’s keeping his spot entirely on reputation than performance. At least Cavalli had an actual good minor league before his injury. Bennett has 130 career innings.
Lastly, really pleased to see Morales get a corresponding boost after largely addressing the doubts expressed of him this season.
Will
12 Jun 25 at 2:26 pm
Clemmey walk rate: probably not a finished product, and he’s super young for the level. As you said, if he was 25 and in his 5th pro ball year doing this … trouble.
Todd Boss
12 Jun 25 at 5:23 pm
This is a much better list than their preseason one. I still have my disagreements, but I am pretty much aligned with the direction of every one of their moves.
I also agree with Will that Bennet holding his value is curious.
One interesting name was Mota. He’s been on the periphery of the prospectdom for a while and I saw, in a Kiley McDaniel comment about Jac Caglianone having the highest EV90 in the minors, that Mota ranks 3rd at 110.9 MPH. That’s pretty impressive power, especially for a 20 year old. That said, the production isn’t there yet. He’s been alright, but a league average line at basically a league average age isn’t usually enough to get a low bonus guy onto these lists. He’s one of the fringe guys who is definitely worth keeping an eye on.
SMS
12 Jun 25 at 7:19 pm
Someone (Law?) reported that Green was sent to the complex in FLA to basically start over with his swing. He hasn’t seen game action in a month. Honestly, that’s about all they could do with a guy slashing .171/.271/.260 with a 45.7% K rate.
Vaquero isn’t setting the world on fire, but he’s doing better at this point than Green is: 97 wRC+ at A level at age 20, with his K rate lowered 7 percentage points over last season and BB rate up 3 points.
KW
12 Jun 25 at 7:41 pm
I certainly think that Susana has the tools to be a #1/2 starter, but between him not proving it yet and being injured, I have no idea why he’s ahead of House.
Across 150 games at his current production rate, House would have 30 homers and 34 doubles. Now, an equivalence formula would dock him about 20% at the MLB level, which would put him at 26 homers and 27 doubles. Bregman had 26 homers and 30 doubles last season and got paid pretty handsomely for it.
Anyway, time will tell if House can be a star, but I think he’s going to be a very solid contributor with star potential. As the FanGraphs piece on him a few days ago shows, he still hasn’t maximized his power potential. Everyone says he’s above average defensively at 3B.
KW
12 Jun 25 at 7:57 pm
Sykora dominates again—5 IP, 2 H, 0R, 0 BB, 10 K, 79 pitches. AA cannot be far off
Derek
12 Jun 25 at 11:01 pm
SMS, that’s a really interesting factoid about Mota. When something like that pops up, it’s definitely something to keep an eye on. While the overall numbers aren’t especially good this year, there’s a lot to be encouraged by from him. He’s increased his walk rate quite substantially, cut down on his worryingly high Ks ever so slightly, and his power is way up back to 2023 levels, and perhaps most interestingly, he’s running a lot more frequently than before. He’s already got 13 SB, when he had 15 total last season (most of his short career). A lot to like for a freshly turned 20 year old, even if this is somehow already his 3rd season in Fburg.
On Sykora, I’ve run out of positives to say about him. We haven’t had a pitching prospect this good since Strasburg. And with Strasburg, he only played 11 games in the minors before getting promoted to DC, so this run of Sykora’s is statistically better than Strasburg’s AND it’s also been for significantly longer. Yes, Giolito was also special, but his play in the minors was most impressive for it’s quiet consistency and efficiency for such a young player. He never struck out more than 11.1 batters per inning in any season, while Sykora is sitting at an absolutely ridiculous 17.1 this season!
Will
13 Jun 25 at 6:34 am
I do like how we’re starting to see new prospects pop up based on production, not just signing bonus. I’m talking about how BA just named two guys for the first time (Cornelio and Davian Garcia). I like how Cole Henry is back on prospect radars (well, not for long since he’s now seemingly established in the MLB pen). Mota popping up. Don’t sleep on Angel Feliz, who hit his way off the island and is now doing the same in FCL as an 18yr old. Lastly we seem to have an entire rotation of comptetent-looking starters in the DSL right now.
Todd Boss
13 Jun 25 at 8:36 am
Sykora, age 21, A+: 1.00 ERA, 0.52 FIP, 0.50 WHIP
Giolito age 20, A+: 2.71 ERA, 1.96 FIP, 1.22 WHIP
They promoted Giolito to AA for the last eight games that season (2015) where he didn’t dominate but “held his own”: 3.80 ERA, 3.18 FIP, 1.37 WHIP. In 2016, after stops at AA and AAA, they promoted him to the majors, although that didn’t go so well.
Every prospect progresses at his own rate, so all one should read into this is what’s possible, not so much what’s “likely.” It’s hard not to get excited about what we’re seeing, though. It’s just a bit head-scratching why the gurus aren’t yet as excited as we are.
KW
13 Jun 25 at 2:42 pm
Arquette backs up my take of being a 6-5 gamer with a mad dash home to win OSU’s first game. He went 3-5, all singles, and scored twice.
I don’t have a good read about Arquette’s ceiling, as a lot will depend on whether those long levers will generate power as a pro. But I think I have more confidence in his floor than I do any of the other 1/1 candidates.
KW
14 Jun 25 at 8:27 am
Anderson is certainly putting himself more in the 1/1 conversation with a solid outing against a great-hitting ARK team. He really didn’t have a dominant inning until the 5th, though, got helped out by multiple double plays along the way.
Anderson is listed as one inch taller than Arnold but looks at least three inches taller. (I think Arnold is really about 5-11). Anderson has a very smooth delivery. My only real concern is that until the 5th he hadn’t missed a lot of bats. The Hogs have made contact, ranging from weak to semi-solid. (Then he surrenders an absolute bomb in the 6th as I write.)
I would have Anderson ahead of Arnold. I feel like Arnold is about at his peak both physically and as a pitcher. Anderson clearly is not. On Anderson vs. Doyle, it comes down to how much a team values Doyle’s physical strength/power. He could break Anderson in two over his knee. But Anderson is a more polished pitcher at this point. Doyle might have higher-in-the-rotation potential in the majors, but Anderson is a surer bet to get there, even if he’s “only” a #3.
In general I’m liking Anderson a lot as the potential 1/1. He’s both “safe” in that he’s already quite polished, has four pitches, and has a smooth delivery that shouldn’t cause arm issues, but he also still has obvious physical “projection.” Plus he’s younger than Sykora.
I would definitely take Anderson over the unknowns of Holliday. I do like Arquette, but as of now, Anderson looks more “special” than Arquette, although both will have other opportunities in Omaha to make an impression. If Arquette hits a couple of bombs against CWS-quality pitching, his stock will rise.
The big unknown, of course, is if the Nats are truly going to go after one guy or offer $8 to 8.5M to three or four of them and see who bites.
KW
14 Jun 25 at 9:19 pm
@KW, as to your closing point, I don’t see anybody in the draft who can demand full slot. not saying they won’t try but it would surprise me if the Nats end up going that route
FredMD
15 Jun 25 at 9:39 am
Anderson thoughts versus his college LHP competitors: I think Arnold is gimmicky. Side-slingers are effective in college and up to a certain point in the minors, but unless you’re Randy Johnson or Max Scherzer the track record isn’t great in the majors. I think Arnold is going to get paid a ton of money, which is great for him, but if he was in last year’s draft instead of this year’s i bet he’s a lower 1st rounder. Doyle to me is hot head, overthrowing, arm injury waiting to happen, over used college lefty who blows away lower level competition with pace but who gets hit in upper levels before eventually becoming a 2-pitch reliever. that’s not 1-1 for me. Now, Anderson seems more classical college starter for sure; his worst start of the year was last week’s 7runs given up with a 10-1 lead against WVA; he had a couple 5runs in 4ip versions against SEC teams mid-season but for the most part he’s double digit Ks, 6ip manageable hits and runs.
https://lsusports.net/sports/bsb/roster/player/kade-anderson/
I think its down to Holliday or Anderson for the team.
Todd Boss
15 Jun 25 at 9:52 am
@FredMD — to be clear, the 1/1 slot value is $11,075,900, so at $8-8.5M the Nats would be looking for a significant slot savings. One of the gurus (I’ve forgotten who) speculated a few weeks ago that $8.5M might be appropriate value for the 1/1 this year.
They would only get that level of slot savings with a college guy, though. Holliday would be looking for at least $10M.
As I’ve said before, I don’t hate the thought of Holliday, but his known swing-and-miss issues combined with being at least three years away from the majors don’t particularly appeal to me. His profile is a lot like House’s was, so it’s fair to assume a similar progression. (Although House has had some injury issues that have made it even slower. He won’t be an MLB regular until five years after he was drafted.)
Anderson and Arnold could be in the majors by the latter half of next summer (possibly). I would say 2027 for Doyle and Arquette. I would say best case for Holliday to the majors would be 2028. I know his brother zipped through the minors super fast, but Jackson didn’t have the same contact issues, plus the O’s clearly brought him up way too soon.
KW
15 Jun 25 at 12:56 pm
I think you can get Holliday for 9.5. that would still be a record amount. now is he a better value than Arquette at 8.5? smarter people than me will have to make that call.
FredMD
16 Jun 25 at 7:52 am
My “bet” is that 1-1 signs for ever so slightly above the 75% minimum (assuming all the 10 or so guys in consideration for 1-1 submit their medicals), so $8.3-$8.5m.
Bazzana, an all around better prospect than anyone in this year’s draft, signed for 84.7% of his slot value at 1-1 last year. I think the Nats should come away with more savings than that, given the low upside of the talent this year.
Will
16 Jun 25 at 9:16 am
@Will: so, MLB has announced who is and isn’t registered for the combine. And it’s definitely interesting who is and isn’t in:
Notable 1-1 candidates attending: Arnold, Doyle, Hernandez. Notable 1-1 candidates who are NOT going to attend? Holliday, Anderson, Arquette, Willits.
So , both the players we’re seemingly whittling down to (Holliday and Anderson) are NOT attending. That means … they’re not subject to the 75% rule. It could also be a gambit by their “advisors” to get max money. Not surprising b/c I’m pretty sure Boras is Holliday’s agent.
https://www.mlb.com/press-release/press-release-participating-players-schedule-announced-for-2025-mlb-draft-combine-at-chase-field-in-phoenix
Todd Boss
16 Jun 25 at 11:34 am
Of all the players I would really, REALLY want to see at the combine before risking a draft pick on him, it’s Holliday. From the Holliday camp I understand the gamble, though, because the only direction his stock could go would be down. He’s probably no worse than 1/4 right now. With any hint of struggles he could drop right out of the top 10, as House did. (For the life of me I will never understand why House dropped so far, and why Green didn’t.)
Arquette didn’t help himself with an O-fer last night, albeit against a sensational pitcher. Performance in a couple of games this week shouldn’t affect one’s stock that much, but when he hasn’t hit against much great pitching, it is an opportunity for him to show something.
I do understand Arquette and Anderson skipping the combine since they’re already getting high-level exposure in the CWS. Anderson couldn’t do anything at the combine that would do more for his draft stock than his performance on Saturday did.
I do agree with Todd’s take farther above about Arnold being a bit gimmicky. I would caution not to be too quick to dismiss Doyle, though, in large part because he’s a physical specimen that Arnold and Anderson aren’t. He outweighs Anderson by 41 pounds per their listed numbers. He’s also “young” for the class, as is Anderson, who is a month younger than Doyle. The Nats love guys who really fill out a uni.
If it’s me, I’m picking between Anderson and Doyle, and leaning toward Anderson. Either one could be in the MLB rotation by 2027. You’re not getting much from Holliday until 2029-30.
KW
16 Jun 25 at 4:47 pm
In the second round, the Washington Nationals select Gage Wood . . . currently perfectly slotted at #50 on the MLB.com big board, but likely moving up after today.
https://www.mlb.com/milb/prospects/draft/gage-wood-805906
KW
16 Jun 25 at 7:55 pm
“Van Horn said he never considered removing Wood, who missed two months early this season with a shoulder injury and had not thrown more than 89 pitches in an outing this year before Monday.”
Missed two months with a shoulder injury, never went more than 89 pitches … and throws 119 in an elimination game at the CWS.
He just threw perhaps the best game in the history of the CWS … and if I was a GM, there’s no way in hell i’m drafting him. who knows what kind of collateral damage he did to his arm in the last 15-20 pitches of this effort. Obviously, you could never take him out of such a game; he was making history. However, if there’s anythign we’ve learned by now, its that one-off efforts like this have long-term consequences.
Todd Boss
17 Jun 25 at 9:34 am
Hmm, seems like my comment got eaten…
@Todd, that’s fascinating that a bunch of guys in the mix for 1-1 aren’t attending the combine and could then theoretically be signed for significantly under slot. There’s definitely a non-monetary value to a player getting picked 1-1 that would make up for comparatively less of a signing bonus that I hope the Nats could tap into.
Could the Nats convince Arquette to take 1-6 slot value for the honor of going 1-1? I think there’s a very real likelihood that Arquette (or insert Anderson, Willits, etc.) could tumble with as much predictability that there’s been among the picks, and might be afraid of that risk. 1-6 slot value is $7.5m and 1-7 $7.1m. Nick Kurtz, JJ Wetherholt and Jac Caglianone were both rated equally or more highly than any picks available this year. MLB Pipeline, for example rated Caglianone as a 65 and Kurtz and Wetherholt at 60, whereas no one this year is rated higher than a 60, and they rate Arquette as a 55. Caglianone signed for $7.5m, Kurtz signed for $7m, and Wetherholt $6.9m, so there’s strong fair market argument to offer something in the $7m range, and that additional $2-3m would go a very long way in shoveling it back into the relatively deep but lower upside talent pool in the later rounds.
That would definitely be my draft strategy, but I’m mostly just excited that this is a possibility again. I don’t get what these guys risk losing by attending, as it locks them into near-ish slot value, but not attending significantly expands their risk, and if they’re hiding an injury or something, clubs will find that during the medical and still not sign them, like Rocker, and take a re-draft the following season.
Will
17 Jun 25 at 11:04 am
@will: hypothetical. Here’s my thought process: Lets say Arquette agrees to 6th pick money at 1-1. https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-draft-2025-bonus-pick-values . 1-1 is worth a shade over $11M, we have $16.6 total. 6th overall slot value is $7.5M, which would give the team an additional $3.5M in money to throw at a 2nd or 3rd rounder. Sounds great. However … who are they gonna get? By most accounts it has to be a prep kid like Dickerson last year. So we get a lesser player at 1-1 b/c we’re worried about risk to drafting a prep kid like Holliday just so … we can then throw money at a LESSER prep kid 2 rounds later?? Is that really the play?
Honestly, if you’re going to risk a prep kid, then take the risk on the best damn prep kid you can find. We’ve known who Ethan Holliday is for 5 years. We know what his dad did. We know what his brother is doing right now. We’ve seen him at combines and showcases and in National team 15U and 18U international competitions. Its not like he’s some surprise unknown: he’s basically a left-handed version of his dad (both 6’4″) who bats lefty instead of righty and who has SS/3B skills. I’ll bet he adds 40 pounds of weight and power, sticks at 3B, and turns into something like Nolan Arenado.
Or … you go the safer route, pick Anderson, still save some cash b/c he’s not going to demand full slot and if the Nats don’t take him he probably falls a bit anyway, net yourself $2M of extra money instead of $3.5M, then take a haircut on like a 4th rounder to turn that $2M into closer to $3M of extra space … and still net that Dickerson risky prep kid in the 3rd.
Todd Boss
17 Jun 25 at 4:49 pm
so the choice is rolling the dice on one A+ prospect vs playing the odds on 2-3 B’s. a good argument could be made for both. thanks for the perspective
FredMD
17 Jun 25 at 5:02 pm
Speaking of prep kids, House will debut tonight with the big club, almost exactly four years after being drafted.
I’m trying to think who the last Nat high school draftee was who really made it with the Nats. I’m not talking about being a fringe guy like Michael A. Taylor, I’m talking about being an established regular. Wood and Joe Ross were drafted by other teams. Giolito and Luzardo have succeeded with other teams.
I keep coming back to . . . Ian Desmond, drafted 21 years ago, which is sort of frightening. Who am I forgetting?
KW
17 Jun 25 at 5:45 pm
Without rehashing old arguments, I’ve yet to see a convincing case from any prospect writer that other players included in your coverage here are “a lesser player” to Holliday. For example, MLB Pipeline gives their top 5 the same 60 grade. ESPN gives their top 8 the same 50 grading. So if you can get an equal player to Holliday for like $3.5m less, then yes, of course you take the equivalent player + savings. But this all boils down to whether you think Holliday is obviously better than the others, and here we just have to agree to disagree.
This is exactly what the Guardians did last year. Condon was the flawed but closest to consensus 1-1 pick. The Guardians negotiated Bazzana, in the mix for 1-1, but by no means the “favorite”, down to $1.6m underslot (less than 1-2 and 1-3’s bonuses), and shoveled those savings in to Joey Oakey, a prep player rated in the top 50 at pick #84, and Chase Mobley, another prep pick rated 80 by MLB, at pick 295. If we’re to use a cross sports analogy, the Guardians basically traded their their 1-1 pick down to 1-3 while still getting “their guy” for a discount, and trading their 3rd round pick into a 2nd round pick and their 10th round pick to a 2nd round pick.
But the Guardians did that with $1.5m in savings. With $3-4m in savings from that one pick, you could accomplish significantly more.
Last year, players rated 16, 56, 76, 79 and 5 in the 90s weren’t drafted at all due to signability concerns, not to mention guys like Mobley who were rated 84 but went in the 10th round and would’ve still be on the board for later day 2 picks. It was a pretty similar story in 2023, players rated 44, 73, 75, 79, 80, 85, 99 went undrafted, and a bunch more sat on the board for a very long time (Cam Johnson, the 42nd best prospect, was given a token pick in the 20th round and obviously didn’t sign, Cooper Pratt the 45th best prospect was taken in the 6th round), and a similar story again in ’22 (46, 57, 70, 76, 77, 82, 83, 84 went undrafted). With that $3-4m in savings the Nats could likely walk away with a clearly top 5 prospect plus maybe another 1st round talent if someone dropped due to signability demands like Schmidt (prospect rated 16th last year) did, at least 2 2nd round talents, and maybe even 2+ 3rd round talents, by snapping up the best undrafted (likely prep, or a random draft eligible sophomore) talent in rounds 4-10.
It seems like a no brainer to me to do. You get a significantly deeper talent pool at the cost of – maybe (depending on your estimation of Holliday, which is again where we differ) – taking a slightly less highly regarded prospect.
Will
17 Jun 25 at 5:53 pm
From Todd: “Sounds great. However . . . who are they gonna get?”
Exactly. And my big concern in this specific draft is how many other teams in the top 10 have their second (and sometimes third) picks before the Nats pick again at #49. Several teams are going to be playing the slot-money-saving game, and the Nats won’t have anything close to first dibs on that next set of guys. That’s not a great place to be in a draft that isn’t very strong anyway.
I’m not as keen on Holliday as Todd is. It’s not so much that I think he’ll fail, it’s that he’s both riskier and he won’t help anytime soon. From my perspective, to take Holliday, you would have to really doubt Anderson/Arquette/Doyle/Arnold. And I don’t. I think they’re all major leaguers. I also don’t think anyone believes that Holliday is Bobby Witt Jr., or even Jackson Holliday. Passing on his (likely) isn’t passing on a superstar.
It should be noted that all pitchers come with a certain amount of risk. And Anderson, Doyle, and Arnold all have had borderline abuse situations this season similar to what Todd is decrying about Gage Wood. I keep waiting for a top college program to very publicly make itself out to be an arm-friendly program and see if it can reap recruiting benefit from that, but I haven’t seen it yet.
As for the signing number, I think $8M will be the floor, maybe $8.5M. And I do think the Nats will be at least feeling out multiple players. It sort of would be malpractice not to.
And . . . Mr. Arquette checks in with a massively clutch homer in the 9th of an elimination game. Also had a defensive gem earlier in the game.
KW
17 Jun 25 at 6:09 pm
That turned out to be Arquette’s last collegiate AB, a 418-foot bomb that sparked his team’s comeback. I like that guy. I don’t know what his pro position is, or what his ceiling is, but he’s a spirited player who will be fun to watch progress.
KW
17 Jun 25 at 7:06 pm
Kiley McDaniel has a new mock draft posted:
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/45532575/2025-mlb-mock-draft-20-kiley-mcdaniel-predicts-first-round-picks
He has the Nats taking Anderson:
“The conversation around who will go No. 1 continues to be wide open and will be until draft day, but Anderson’s strong finish to the season has him looking like the slight favorite over Ethan Holliday as the top pick. Seth Hernandez and Eli Willits are also getting looks here, and I’m sure there are internal conversations about a couple of other options, but Anderson and Holliday are seen as the most likely selections.”
I don’t understand the excitement that some have about Willits. It truly eludes me. I can see the case for any of the others. But Willits has extremely limited power projection.
I find it interesting that McDaniel seems to be hearing Anderson or three high schoolers in the Nats’ consideration. McDaniel has Doyle at #2 for the Angels but says he’s also hearing that Doyle could slide as far as #9 or 10. He has Arnold at #3, Holliday at #4, JoJo Parker at #5, and Arquette at #6. He does note that the stock of Ike Irish is really on the rise and that he could surpass Arquette as the first college position player taken.
For all the buzz about Seth Hernandez, McDaniel doesn’t actually have him picked until #9.
KW
18 Jun 25 at 4:32 pm
tough way for Arkansas to go out but what a game. I guess we’ll get one more look at our potential pick.
FredMD
19 Jun 25 at 7:42 am