We’re now three months into the 2025 full seasons, so here’s my rotations/pitching staff deep-dives for the month. We’re starting to really see some trends that we can actually believe … even though many adhere to the “there is no such thing as a pitching prospect” camp.
Each team section analysis will have the same items: current rotation, changes in the last month, observations, next guy to get promoted (if its in the minors), next guy to get cut, and then a few comments about relievers.
All stats are as of 6/30/25.
Important links for this analysis:
- Big Board
- Nats MLB stats: at baseball-reference.com
- AAA Rochester stats: (all minor league stats at milb.com)
- AA Harrisburg stats
- High-A Wilmington stats
- Low-A Fredericksburg Stats
- FCL Nationals Stats
- DSL Nationals Pitching Stats
We’ll start with the Majors.
- Opening Day 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, Soroka, TWilliams
- End of April 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, TWilliams, Lord
- End of May 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, Soroka, TWilliams (back to the original)
- End of June 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, Soroka, TWilliams
Changes since end of last Month: none: we’re at our opening day rotation for the entire month and have shown pretty remarkable consistency in the rotation so far this year for a last place team.
Rotation Observations: We started June with a 28-31 record, and we’re ending June with a 35-49 record. That’s not great, Bob. The team went just 7-19 after a 15-12 May that had fans maybe, possibly thinking we’ve turned the corner. The pitching staff didn’t help. Gore continues to pitch like an Ace and may be pushing towards an All Star appearance. Soroka’s return from the DL resulted in a very solid 3.50 ERA month as he builds trade-value. Irvin’s June was forgettable: 7.00 ERA and 1.65 whip in five starts. Amazingly he won one of them. Parker improved from last month but is still pitching like a 4-A starter in general. And then there’s Williams, who at least has been consistent: here’s his month to month ERAs: 5.70 in April, 5.68 in May, and 5.55 in June. With little run support he’s now turning into an automatic out every fifth turn, and is making his off-season contract extension looking worse by the week.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Williams … though there’s not exactly a clamoring for a rotation spot coming up from AAA right now, so everyone’s safe.
Bullpen comments: With a 7-19 month we’re now entrenched in last place and may soon pivot to the “who can we trade” analysis. Finnegan remains one of our leading trade pieces (as he was last year before one bad game scuttled his trade value). Lord and Henry should be untouchable based on player control and performance. New acquisition Chafin has been solid but is hurt. The rest of the pen is a mess of 6-ERA rookies and veterans that aren’t helping this team hold on to leads. Unfortunately there’s not a ton of help coming from AAA since we’ve already done a purge.
AAA Rochester
- Opening Day 2025: Alvarez, Lara, Ogasawara, Choi, Solesky
- End of April 2025: Alvarez, Lara, Solesky, Shuman, Cavalli (rehab)
- End of May 2025: Alvarez, Solesky, Shuman, Cavalli, Sampson
- End of June 2025: Alvarez, Solesky, Shuman, Cavalli, Sampson
Changes since end of last month: None until the last day of the month, when Sampson hit the DL and will be replaced by Ogasawara for July, which I’m totally OK with since Ogasawara is on the 40-man and presumably could provide future help, whereas Sampson is a 30-something MLFA innings eater.
Rotation Observations: Cavalli was officially taken off the MLB DL and optioned to AAA, and in five June starts he posted a middling 5.64 ERA/1.52 whip effort. 18/12 KBB in 22 innings. That’s not enough Ks and too many BBs to make a push upwards. In the comments a few weeks ago there was a discussion on how long Cavalli would have to be “kept down” in order to get an other year of service time … well there’s certainly no urgency right now, and concerns are starting to creep into play here for sure. As for the rest of the rotation: Alvarez and Solesky put up nice months but both seem to have the same problem: they’re good enough to get by in AAA but seemingly not pushing for a promotion. As for the rest: 33yr old MLFA Sampson was ok in a few starts (but doesn’t have any swing and miss) but hit the DL recently. Lastly Seth Shuman basically pitched BP all month with an 8+ ERA and giving up 10 homers in 5 games.
Next guy to get Promoted: none. If I had to promote someone to make a spot start in the MLB it probably would be Pilkington.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Shuman. He may have reached the end of the line. He’ll be a 6yr MLFA and has been in our system since 2019 and I just don’t know what else they can do here. There’s several AA arms who really should be in AAA and it seems like its just a matter of time before Shuman gets the axe.
Bullpen comments: Pilkington’s proven to be a multi-use guy and had a sub 1.00 ERA in June. Also, dare I say it but former 40-man hurler Joan Adon had 22 Ks in just 13IP in June in a middle relief role; do we roll the dice with him again in the majors? Marquis Grissom Jr. has settled down since his promotion and may be putting his name into consideration soon. Long-time farmhand Peterson got cut soon after his promotion to AAA: his AAA stat-line: 3 games, 1 total Inning pitched: 13 hits and 14 runs allowed. Phew. Weigel wasn’t much better, giving up 18 runs in 7 June innings; kind of curious why he’s still around.
AA Harrisburg
- Opening Day 2025: Shuman, Luckham, Saenz, Susana, Atencio
- End of April 2025: Luckham, Saenz, Susana, Choi, Soroka (rehab)
- End of May 2025: Luckham, Saenz, Choi, Cornelio, Conley (with multiple Gomez openers)
- End of June 2025: Luckham, Choi, Cornelio, Conley, Stuart with Lara, Sykora coming in at end of month.
Changes since end of last month: Saenz demoted to the bullpen officially, replaced with Stuart. Then at month’s end the AA rotation has two new names who have to fit in somehow in Lara and Sykora.
Rotation Observations: Not one peep about Susana’s UCL issue; hit the DL 5/10/25, now we’re at 6/30. Here’s how I expect this to go: Susana “rehabs” for months in Florida, gets a start at the end of the season, lasts 2 innings, leave the game with diminished velocity, and the team announces TJ surgery the next day. Seen it a thousand times.
Lara finished rehab and was demoted to AA, but his first start back was awful. Then, top prospect Sykora was promoted to make his first start at month’s end, which looked bad on paper but which seemed to be more like death from a thousand paper cuts. Heading into July we seem to have 7 names for 5 spots but no real obvious choices as to who makes way. Luckham had a middling month but has proven he’s solved AA at various points. Conley had a very solid month in the rotation … and is a 30yr old in AA for the 4th season. Not sure what we’re proving here. The best arm this month was Cornelio, with a 1.96 ERA and a sub 1.00 whip, but he hasn’t appeared in nearly two weeks for some reason.
Next guy to get Promoted: I’d promote Conley ASAP to see if he can hang in AAA; if he can great, if he can’t then he’ll have proven that fact three years running and I’d cut ties. Luckham has nothing else to prove in AA and needs to get moved up at this point. After that, if Cornelio puts up another month like this i’d move him up too: at 25 no better time than the present.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: They already moved Saenz out of the rotation. What is Choi giving us right now? Minor league Rule5 guy with a 5+ ERA repeating AA? In a pinch I’d dump him.
Bullpen comments: Davila and Acosta both had solid months: Acosta should since he was in AAA to start. The AA bullpen now has 5 guys promoted just this season, so they need a bit of time to settle. Mejia’s conversion to relief isn’t going well, with more BB than K. Junior Santos has been unstoppable as the closer and as a 23yr old MLFA might be worthy of moving up soon.
High-A Wilmington
- Opening Day 2025: Clemmey, Cornelio, Kent, Sthele, Tepper
- End of April 2025: Clemmey, Cornelio, Kent, Sthele, Arias
- End of May 2025: Clemmey, Kent, Sthele, Sykora, Bennett, Stuart (rehab) plus a bunch of spot starts
- End of June 2025: Clemmey, Kent, Sthele, Bennett, and four rehab stars from Ogasawara/Lara
Changes since end of last month: Sykora (finally) promoted to where he probably should have been a month ago. In four High-A starts Sykora had a 1.66 ERA, a 0.74 whip and 32/6 K/BB in 21ip.
Rotation Observations: Clemmey continues to be solid: 1.45 ERA for the month. Bennett is being eased back into things and hasn’t given up a run in 3 small starts. Sunday Sthele is Steady Eddy; 3.60 ERA in four starts, even if he doesn’t strike anyone out. Kent took a big step back this month, with four starts in the 6 ERA range. I can’t ding him too much, since he’s starting in the High-A rotation as a 22yr old pro. Tolman got one spot start and added that to a nice month.
Next guy to get Promoted: Bennett; once he’s stretched out he just has to go to AA. At 24 he’s lost so much time already. After that, Clemmey is making a big case to move up as well despite his age.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Nobody deserving right now; Sthele is the least performant but he’s got solid 5th starter numbers for now.
Bullpen comments; Miguel Gomez has gone from LR/SS to closer and has been very solid. He was demoted down earlier this year and might warrant a return. 2023 NDFA Arguelles didn’t give up a run this month. As mentioned, I like what Tolman is doing and wouldn’t mind seeing him back in the rotation.
Low-A/Fredericksburg
- Opening Day 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia
- End of April 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia with Bennett making his 2025 debut
- End of May 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia with two “rehab” starts from Bennett/Sykora
- End of June 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia, Romero
Changes since end of last month: Brayan Romero off the D/L and into what basically is now being treated like a 6-man rotation. The other 5 guys have been intact since opening day.
Rotation Observations: Garcia & Meckley, both 2024 draft picks, were excellent in June, though the team seemed to “manage” Garcia’s workload a bit with only 3 starts. Fellow 2024 draftee Tejeda was also very solid, with a 3.68 ERA and a 20/2 K/BB ratio. Neither Roman or Romero were particularly impressive this month, both with bad peripherals and poor K/9 rates. Polanco, the elder statesman of the bunch at 23, took a step back this month but has been decent all month.
Next guy to get Promoted: Polanco as the oldest guy, needs the challenge of the next level. I’d keep the rest of these 21yr olds in place for now.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Roman, as he was last month. Romero didn’t light things on fire either but it was his first month back.
Bullpen comments: I like what we’re seeing from 2024 11th rounder Beeker; spot start, solid numbers. He’s already 23 so he should get moved up honestly. Cranz was 7 for 7 in save situations and needs to be promoted at this point.
FCL/Rookie
- Opening day: Feliz, Portorreal, Farias, Johnson, Rehab starts
- End of May 2025: Feliz, Portorreal, Farias, Johnson, Lunar
- End of June 2025: Feliz, Portorreal, Farias, Lunar, Sullivan (rehab)
Changes since end of last month: Johnson was promoted, had a solid low-A start, then demoted and had 4 relief appearances. Odd usage. Liam Sullivan, who started last year promising before a season-ending injury, did a month’s worth of rehab starts here and may get pushed to Low-A officially soon.
Rotation Observations: Feliz looks solid; 13/1 K/BB, 1.96 ERA. He’s only 19 though, so no rush. Liam Sullivan had a 0.90 ERA; he needs to go up.
So far in 2025, Feliz (a 23IFA) is doing great: 24/4 K/BB in 5 starts with a near 3.00 ERA. Lunar (a 24IFA for a bonus amount small enough not to be reported) is doing great: sub 3.00 ERA but more importantly he earned his way off the island. Portorreal is struggling (2.00 whip), as is Farias (13 walks in 11 innings). Johnson is way too old to be here (age 23) and it shows: in 18IP so far he’s got a 21/3 K/BB and has given up just 9 hits and one run. Portorreal: what are we doing here? 8+ ERA, 23 hits in 13 innings, just 6 walks. Not good. Lunar is showing some promise, Faries not so much.
Next guy to get Promoted: Sullivan.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Farias. Same as last month, turns 23 this month, averaging nearly a walk an inning. Portorreal isn’t impressing anyone either.
Bullpen comments: Not sure why 23yr olds Johnson or Kane are still in FCL. The rest of the relievers here are a hodgepodge of IFAs with just a few innings not worth analyzing.
DSL/Rookie
- Opening day: JReyes, De La Cruz, Robles, Carrasco, Mejia
- End of June 2025: JReyes, De La Cruz, Robles, Carrasco, Torrellas
Changes since end of last month: Mejia and his 10.61 ERA replaced by Torrelles and his 1.29 ERA
Rotation Observations: First month through and DSL’s rotation looks promising. We have three guys putting up solid numbers in Reyes, De la Cruz, and Torrellas. Robles has a .179 BAA but those hits keep turning into runs, inflating his ERA. Only Mejia (already in the pen) and Carrasco (a .400 BAA and a 9.69 ERA so far) have really struggled.
Next guy to get Promoted: Reyes: he was a 23IFA and is a 20yr old in DSL: time to come stateside.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Carrasco
Bullpen comments: There’s a couple arms worth moving to the FCL, including a 20yr old 25IFA in Juan Lopez who has 23 Ks in 13ip and needs another challenge.
That’s it for June 2025.
in Sykora’s AA outing he had the first two batters 0-2 and ended up walking them both. to me that says he’s throwing not pitching. he’s in AA now, time to refine his approach. I’m sure he can do it but I’d sure start by ditching that funky delivery and pitching from the stretch 100%
FredMD
1 Jul 25 at 8:55 am
Todd, since you brought up “who can we trade” question, I’ll drop this bomb: why don’t we trade Gore?
Gore has the same team control left as Soto did when we traded him. And we’re not really any closer to being competitive now than we were in 2022. This team is on pace for 67 wins; the rebuild has come up short, and Gore, unlike Wood, is the closest player of the core to free agency. Barring some big investment, I don’t really see this team in its current form will be competitive until the next round of prospects (Sykora, Dickerson, Susana, King) arrive in 2ish years, and by that point, Gore will nearly or already be gone.
Gore could command a hefty return, and if we could focus on guys 1-2 years off and get the right prospects, that could give a massive boost to the competitive window upside in like 2028-2031.
The problem is it would be an extremely hard sell to the already unhappy fanbase. It locks us into an increasingly perpetual rebuild. But I’m not convinced that’s really much of a deterrent to ownership.
We’ve also seen how letting our stars walk without any compensation has devastated the team. While it was a tough pill to swallow, imagine where we’d be if we didn’t trade Soto! We’d be debating as to whether Jacob Young, Mitchell Parker or Jake Irvin should be our All Star Game representative. Yikes!
Will
1 Jul 25 at 11:22 am
@Will: I’m a hard no on trading Gore. Not just because it would run off part of the fanbase, but because the team is in WAY better shape than it was in 2022. Not only did that team lose 107 games (!) but it did so with an old roster without much hope. Even Soto on the roster it was an old team (18th youngest in MLB in position player age, 24th youngest in pitching). They lost 107 games with Soto/Bell bridging the gap to the amazing 60 days of Meneses. The minor leagues weren’t any better.
In 2025 the team is not quite so bad, but more importantly is much younger. They are the second youngest team in MLB for position players (.1 behind the Marlins) and 6th youngest in pitcher age. The team also has a potential to rise of which the 2022 team could only dream. Wood, Abrams, and Gore can be cornerstone players, and the team has young players coming up to hope on in Crews, House, Sykora, and Susana.
Further, looking at 2028-2031 as your window elides the fact that by 2028 Gore (who I realize that you are planning to trade), Garcia Jr., and Gray have hit free agency and you only have one year of team control over CJ Abrams and (FWIW) Cade Cavalli remaining. No bueno.
John C.
1 Jul 25 at 2:29 pm
I’m with Will on trading Gore. It’s really important.
It seems unlikely that the team will be ready to compete for a championship before 2027. Even if they are, it often takes many years of being competitive before a team actually wins — they ought to be building toward a multi-year window. Given that, it would be malpractice to waste Gore’s trade value and lose the opportunity to improve the team longer-term.
Yes, the fanbase is impatient. But, by and large, it’s not stupid. I think Rizzo should do something that most teams (and politicians) are too afraid to do: treat the fans like adults and be honest about the situation. Admit that we need to sacrifice the short-term for the longer-term, and really explain why. Not everyone will buy it. But many will. By contrast, pretending that everything’s fine is not credible and ultimately won’t work.
Bruce
1 Jul 25 at 3:28 pm
Trade Gore now? No way. Understand the comparisons to Soto w/r/t years of control left, but this team is “supposed” to be on the rise, not on the fall. It would be the same as trading Wood, or Crews, or House right now. Just the wrong message completely.
Todd Boss
1 Jul 25 at 4:03 pm
Trading Gore is very different to trading Wood, Crews or House, because those 3 are Nats players until 2031 at the earliest. While Gore becomes a free agent after 2027’s season.
This team is “supposed” to be a lot of things. But we are currently a 67 win pace team. I’d challenge you to describe what you think a 85-90 win Nationals team looks like in 2026 without major free agency spending. Or are we counting on Gore to be a contributor to a competitive Nats team for just one season?
Again, this could all be avoided with spending on free agency, but that just seems very unlikely to me. It will take some significant spending to add around 20 wins to the team, and the free agency crop this winter doesn’t really have the pieces we need. And post-Ted, the Lerners have never shown any willingness to spend. I don’t see that changing to try and get the most out of MacKenzie Gore before he hits free agency, but I could be wrong.
Will
1 Jul 25 at 4:19 pm
I note that the responses to my earlier post saying why trading Gore is a bad idea just say “we’re DOOOMED!” without addressing my points about the differences between 2022 and 2025 (in particular the youth and promise of the core of the 2025 team and farm system) and the fact that pushing the window back to 2028-31 means that you have lost Garcia Jr. and only get one season of Abrams in your window.
Unless you’re saying “oh hell, might as well deal Abrams and Garcia Jr., too!” A question for the “endless deferral” fans – do you actually go to games?
John C.
1 Jul 25 at 4:36 pm
while no one is untradable, the return for Gore would be nowhere near what Soto brought. the former is a young player on the rise, the latter was an established superstar. I’m not referring to their ages but rather their MLB careers.
FredMD
1 Jul 25 at 4:38 pm
Clemmey doesn’t turn 20 until July 18 and he’s pretty much ready for AA. Wow. Control has been far and away his biggest issue, but he walked no one in his last start, for the first time all season, and had a very efficient pitch count. Fingers crossed that he’s turning a corner. If he gets the ball across the plate, he’s hard to hit: 12.6 K9, 6.2 H9. With so many guys promoted and Susana hurt, Clemmey may be the Nats’ #2 prospect right now, at least until the draft.
(And frankly, I think so highly of Sykora that he may stay #1 on the Nats’ list in my mind no matter who they get at 1/1.)
On Todd’s update last month, I expressed concern about Cavalli’s readiness. Well, he’s been worse in June. Sigh. It’s not like I’m against the guy (as some seem to think); in fact, I believed in his comeback chances so much that I was saying in the offseason that he should be listed among the Nats’ top three or four prospects. But here we are in July, seven weeks from his 27th birthday, and he’s given up 15 runs over his last three starts. He’s older than Rutledge was when they finally threw in the towel and made him a reliever. Cue Elvis singing “It’s Now or Never” for Cavalli to prove that he’s a starter, as this probably is his has chance to stick there.
I’ve sort of given up on worrying (or being pissed about) the MLB rotation because they all need to be replaced except Gore (unless Will trades him). Williams has the worse ERA among the starters but the second-best FIP. As has been the case for his career, Irvin’s FIP is significantly worse than his ERA. He’ll turn 29 this offseason. Start the potential non-tender list now . . . I agree with Todd’s take on Parker as a “4-A starter.” Take a bucket of balls in trade for Soroka.
KW
1 Jul 25 at 4:51 pm
Trading Gore . . . hmm. It may surprise some to learn that I’m at least 80% with John C. on this one. I would be willing to listen to offers, but there’s SO LITTLE quality pitching out there, much less under team control, and the Nats have SO LITTLE quality starting pitching that it’s going to be difficult for them to refill four rotation slots, much less five.
Still, I get the gist of the idea. Gore would be an all-in, postseason starter stud the quality of whom won’t be available elsewhere. But the return would have to be overwhelming and filled with nearly ready for the big leagues guys. I have a hard time believing that any team would throw that much talent at the Nats to make it even tempting . . . or tolerable to the fan base (as John mentions).
Part of this equation is whether one believes that the young talent infusion in the lineup is enough to move the Nats toward contending, or are they deluding themselves by standing pat and burning service-time years while not getting any better? There’s not an easy answer. With one massive exception, none of the young hitting prospects have done much yet. And 80% of the rotation and 75% of the bullpen will need to be flipped in the offseason.
So it’s a no from me, . . . unless A.J. Preller calls. He’s always good for an overpay.
KW
1 Jul 25 at 5:03 pm
John, I’ll pose the same challenge to you as to Todd. Describe to me in broad strokes what a Nats playoff team in 2026 looks like to you. Maybe I’m missing something.
I can see a scenario where there’s improvements across the board, where Crews is a much bigger contributor next season. Where Garcia is closer to his 2024 version. Where House is above average. Where Hassell or Lile is a positive contributor. Maybe Williams isn’t awful too? But I don’t see how those incremental improvements amount to a 20 win shift.
We’re a 67 win team with Wood already playing like a MVP candidate. With Gore pitching like a legit ace. With Abrams looking like an All Star (albeit maybe not at shortstop). Maybe Wood goes from MVP candidate to cemented MVP winner next year. And Gore wins the Cy Young. Do we need all of those things to happen to be a playoff contender?
If we were flirting with .500 right now, I’d see the outline of a playoff team next year. But we’re not. There’s just too many holes in this team (who’s going to catch? Play 1B and DH? Where’s the bullpen relief coming from? Who’s meant to be out #2 and #3 guys in the rotation?), that I don’t see them getting filled properly until after Gore hits free agency. So we can keep him, and he’s the difference between us finishing next season with like 80 wins instead of like 75. Cool.
Or we can try and flip him for (yes, a smaller return than Soto) a younger version of Gore or James Wood, who will be under team control when guys like Sykora, Dickerson, Clemmey, Susana, etc. hopefully start contributing to the team in 2+ seasons. It makes us worse in the short term, but provides us with a much stronger path to becoming a good team and not one stuck at .500 in the medium term.
It sucks. But the rebuild failed. We needed more value out of guys like Rutledge, Green, Ruiz and Gray, but that’s not happening. The ideal case is that we’d acquire this missing talent via free agency, and then we could have our cake and eat it too, but the biggest contract we’ve paid to any free agent in the past half decade is Nelson Cruz’s 1y/$15m deal back in 2022.
Will
1 Jul 25 at 5:34 pm
@Will, since you seem intent on trading him, I’ll ask you which of the two has more value:
1) the current version of Gore, who you described as pitching like an ace and with 2.5 yrs of control or
2) a truly established ace with 1.5 years of control?
make sure you factor in the obligation to the fanbase to field the best possible team.
finally, the “failed rebuild” means this was a rebuild. I believe it is a remaking of the team to one that can compete with a midlevel to maybe upper midlevel payroll.
FredMD
1 Jul 25 at 6:51 pm
The Nats ended May with a 10-3 run and sat at 28-30. Then the wheels completely fell off in June as they went 7-19, including an 11-game losing streak. So now they’re 35-49 and have the second-worst record in the NL. I never believed that they were 28-30 good, nor do I think they’re 35-49 bad. With a little luck, they’ll end up around 71-91 . . . for the third straight year.
The the chicken and the egg will remain in exactly the same places: we’ve (supposedly) been waiting until we’re closer to contending before we spend and make that “Gio trade,” but we’re still in the same damn place. At 28-30, 2025 finally looked like it could be the comp for 2011, but that ain’t gonna happen now.
So yes, it’s quite fair to ask whether we’re wasting the years of control of young talent. But I also don’t know how you get back toward contending if you keep trading young talent, and if you don’t spend a damn thing to put quality pieces around that young talent, and if so many of your draft picks continue to flounder.
Will is also asking the fair question of how much of the young talent is really that good. That’s something that’s forgotten about 2010 to 2013 or so — how much personnel turnover there was, even among guys who looked at times like they might be pieces. They were more ruthless about it then than they have been now. Garcia’s contributions look about as empty as Espinosa’s did, for example. Morse couldn’t repeat his excellent 2011 and was gone after 2012. Lannan went from opening-day starter in 2011 to most of the season in AAA in 2012. (Hello, Irvin and Parker.) They gave up on Detwiler as a starter pretty quickly despite numbers that would make him #2 in the rotation now. When Goodwin and Taylor weren’t progressing fast enough (like Hassell), they traded a top pitching prospect for solid major-leaguer in Span. Yes, they certainly whiffed on some of the guys they brought in (has Nate McLouth returned any of his money yet?), but my point is that they were ever aggressive in trying to improve. I don’t feel that sense of urgency now.
Also, the Nats changed managers from Riggs to Davey I to Matty to Dusty to Davey II. They moved on from two Hall of Fame managers. Davey II isn’t one of those, yet he’s been given a much longer leash for some reason. Davey I and Matty were gone after missing the playoffs a single year, and Dusty never missed the playoffs. Davey II is in his sixth straight losing season.
What was driving that urgency was, in part, a desire not to waste the years of control of Stras and Bryce, and the expected career peak of Zim (mostly stolen by injuries). Where is that urgency for Wood and Gore? Not to mention for the fan base that keeps getting strung along . . .
All of that said, I don’t think trading Gore is the answer. But getting a lot more aggressive about building around him certainly is.
KW
1 Jul 25 at 7:22 pm
Eh, if the budget is going to top out at $150M, the team won’t ever be competitive. Maybe they’ll luck into a WC run every 15 or 20 years, but they’ll never really be in a window and it doesn’t really matter which path has a 1% chance of making the playoffs vs which path has a 3% chance.
And that’s why I don’t want to trade Gore. If the budget is there, then we’ll be better with Gore. If the budget isn’t there (which I agree is looking more and more likely), well, I’d still rather watch Gore on a 75 win team than not watch Gore on a 70 win team, even if there’s 3 new cool names in AA to track.
The only way I trade Gore is if we’re getting clearly more value than he’s worth. And I don’t expect any GM to offer that, even if I recognize that trades like that do happen from time to time.
SMS
2 Jul 25 at 1:28 am
To state the obvious, whether to trade Gore ultimately would depend on the return. But, as Will suggests, it seems plausible that to get 2 1/2 years of Gore a win-now team would give up a similarly talented younger player who could give the Nats 6 quality years starting in 2027 or 2028 (when the next wave of talent should arrive). In my view, that trade-off would be well worth it given that the odds of a championship this year or next seem low.
To respond to FredMD:
1) Yes, it’s possible that Gore’s trade value could go up next year if he continues to perform at or above his current level. But there’s also a risk of regression or injury. When that risk is combined with the inevitability of a shorter period of control, the better bet is that his trade value will go down. And it could collapse altogether.
2) The team doesn’t have an obligation to put short-term considerations above the long-term. Like it or not, trade-offs are unavoidable.
3) If you’d be satisfied with a mediocre, mid-level team for years on end, fair enough. But I personally would prefer to watch a team that has a meaningful chance to go all the way. I’d gladly endure a couple more years of losing if that’s the price for, say, five or more years in which the team is genuinely in the hunt for a championship.
Don’t forget: on average, a fanbase should expect their team to win the Series only once every 30 years. It’s hard. But that’s what makes it so satisfying, if you can get there.
Bruce
2 Jul 25 at 2:45 am
Good discussion, guys. Thanks for the thoughtful input.
Don’t get me wrong, I’d hate to trade Gore. We should be signing our best players to extensions and surrounding them with veteran talent, not entertaining how to get rid of them! But my frustration lies with our inactivity this offseason. We knew we had 3 years of Gore left, and management decided we wouldn’t make any effort to make this team better this offseason or secure a long term extension for any of our current group of talent… well, that indecision is a decision in itself.
Fred, just on the value question: that’s already baked into the trade calculus. But ultimately, 2.5 seasons of Gore is always better than 1.5 seasons, no matter how you slice it.
SMS, there is a path to remaining competitive with a league average payroll, especially with the expanded playoffs. In fact, I’d have been ecstatic this year if we entered the season with a $150m payroll (though league average is now closer to $170m). But we’re at $120m. That additional $30-50m would’ve gone a LONG way. That said, it’s not an easy path. The Brewers, Reds, Guardians and Rays all have payrolls lower than ours this season and are competitive. We will, however, never be competitive with a league average payroll and a below average organizational set up. The Athletic’s recent polls of rating general managers/scouting/other org elements is telling. The Nats never feature positively in any of them, while the teams above do frequently. If you’re going to be cheap, you need to be smart and better at what you do than everyone else. I’m not seeing that.
Will
2 Jul 25 at 4:08 am
@Bruce, what I’m saying is that the model for the organization going forward is different from what it was in 2008. That path lead to a WS but decimated the minor league system with trades and high risk drafting.
I do not want to see mediocre baseball and if that is what is to be expected I doubt Mike Rizzo would have stuck around. in spite of the clickbait surveys he is well respected and would find another job in a heartbeat, IMO.
FredMD
2 Jul 25 at 8:57 am
This whole Gore conversation (which is interesting!) boils down (IMO) to a simple if-then statement: if the team won’t spend meaningful dollars on free agents, then it makes sense to trade Gore for multiple pieces because the current team doesn’t have enough pieces to be a playoff contender. So, how you feel about trading Gore is a function of how you feel about the team buying free agents this offseason. I think reasonable minds can differ on this question. On the “we should expect them to spend” side of the ledger, you can point to high payrolls from ’12-’21 as evidence that the team can spend with the upper third of MLB clubs, plus the successful recruitment of major free agents like Werth and Scherzer. On the “Lerners are pathetic” side of the ledger, you can point to the fact that the post-Ted ownership group hasn’t taken on any large contractual commitments (including last offseason, when they should have but instead invested in Josh Bell), and is playing footsie with selling the team (this additional point may be idiosyncratic to me, but I am generally skeptical that the scion of self-made billionaires can make good decisions, so a “committee” of them owning our favorite team strikes me as particularly terrible). I tend to fall into the latter camp, which suggests trading Gore.
All in all, my first choice would be for the Lerners to sell. Failing that, my second choice would be for the Lerners to allow Rizzo to take on $50M+ in additional player salaries for the ’26 season, which I think is enough to get the current roster into plausible WC contention. If neither of those things happens, then I think trading Gore makes sense.
Derek
2 Jul 25 at 9:27 am
To answer Will, a Nats’ playoff team in 2026 does build around the present young core with some free agent signings that work. People always say “SPEND MONEY!” but rarely acknowledge how often it fails to work. The free agent class going into 2025 has a lot of real clunkers (Santander, Peterson, Walker, etc.). Sign a TOR (could be a #2) pitcher to stabilize the rotation, sign a cromulent catcher (Caratini?) to plug the sinkhole behind the plate, and enough of da yout grows into MLB stature to seal the deal.
It’s a plan for an optimist, which means that pessimists will dismiss it. But I would argue that punting on the rebuild just when we’re about to find out if it might (or might not) work is no more certain, and could be rather less certain, than rolling with the current rebuild. As well as giving fans a reason to show up/follow the team. I go to a couple of dozen games a season. Three 100+ loss seasons in 21 is plenty for me, thanks.
And as for the chances? I’ve been following baseball for over 50 years, and have read a lot about it, too. In baseball, weird stuff happens. I’m not going to make the mistake of thinking that I can predict it.
John C.
2 Jul 25 at 10:21 am
So, i’ve tried to write this comment 3 times and keep getting it whacked, but it has to do with money and what money buys. We’re $84M less in 26-man payroll in 2025 than we were in 2019. 84m basically buys the following four players from Philadelphia: Realmutu, Harper, Turner, and Schwarber. I cherry pick them b/c 3 of them are former nats.
Those four players, if you plug them in as replacements for in order Ruiz, Lowe, Garcia, and Bell, have provided 7.9 more bWAR just in the first half of 2025. That’s 8 f*cking wins. If we were 8 wins better right now we’d be 43-41 instead of 35-49. Not in playoff position, but not in last place.
Yes we have a solid core of players. Wood, Abrams, Gore, Garcia. Last year that included Young, Irvin). Grey is in there, Cavalli should be there. Crews and House should be there. That’s a lot of guys who are either producing or “should” be producing. Honestly, you don’t give up on this level of personnel; you give them time and then augment from FA.
Trading ANY of these players right now would send such a bad message to fans … it’d almost be like asking, “are you EVER going to try? Are you EVER going to spend money?”
Todd Boss
2 Jul 25 at 12:18 pm
What an excellent and respectful discussion. We’re all frustrated. And we all know that this franchise used to work harder at improving itself. We just have some differing opinions on how that might be accomplished.
Todd, I don’t buy Garcia as part of the core going forward. See my comment above about how the front office used to be more ruthless. Garcia’s offense is fairly empty, and his defense at 2B is the worst in the majors. Move Abrams (and his bad SS defense) to 2B and make Garcia the utility guy. Alas, Seaver King isn’t exactly blasting his way through the minors to be the SS of the future.
I’ve given up on Cavalli being a significant part of the future. He’s looking more and more like a reliever-to-be. He’s just not cutting it at AAA right now, and he’s almost 27. His future is almost past.
We have to hope that Gray comes back strong. He will be 28 years old next year and arb-eligible. Let’s be brutally honest, though: even when healthy he wasn’t that great. His ERA in 2023 was 3.91, but his FIP was 4.93, WHIP 1.46. His career FIP is a brutal 5.51. Parker’s is 4.12, Irvin’s is 4.85.
Herz also should be back sometime next season. He will only be 25 in 2026.
I do hope that Wood, Abrams, Crews, and House can be an offensive core going forward. With Ruiz, they seem stuck on giving him way too many opportunities because of the extension. He really should only be a backup.
KW
3 Jul 25 at 8:41 am
@KW on Cavalli, read his interview in fangraphs. You’ll be more positive. 5 starts where he seems to be experimenting in AAA shouldn’t turn you off.
Garcia: good until he needs to be replaced. I guess what I meant was, lots of teams put some 80 OPS+ utility guy at 2B but we have someone who can actually hit. Is he the solution permanently? Of course not; Maybe Dickerson comes up and plays 2B, or pushes Abrams there. Or maybe King figures it out. Or perhaps Wallace rebounds. Kevin Made is suddenly hitting the crap out of the ball as a middle infielder in AA. Lots of middle infield options here; that’s why you draft SS with positional flexibility.
We still have some players in the minors to be excited about. Sykora and Clemmey are young guys dominating. We have the #1 overall pick, a player who almost is guaranteed to be an impact player at some point.
TJ surgeries have really stalled momentum on this rebuild: if Grey didn’t get hurt, if Cavalli didn’t get hurt, even if Herz didn’t get hurt we’d be having a seriously different discussion on the state of the rotation in the majors. Instead of having the 3-4-5 starters we have now, those guys would be in the bullpen producing like Lord and Henry. It all cascades; replace a sh*tty starter with a good one, move a 5th starter to the pen and they can become a solid reliever. This is what we did with a slew of our successful relievers in the past, and we should be doign more of it. Alvarez pitching well in AAA but not makign the leap? Turn him into a lefty reliever. Luckham can’t make the jump to AAA but dominates in AA? turn him into a multi-inning reliever.
Todd Boss
3 Jul 25 at 9:51 am
Cavalli interview: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/armed-with-a-revamped-heater-cade-cavalli-eyes-a-healthy-return-to-dc/
I would LOVE for him to prove me wrong. It would be a massive development for the Nats’ alleged rebuild for him to suddenly morph into the #2-3 starter that he was intended to be. Right now there’s nothing tangible to support that belief, though.
Bennett is another significant loss to arm injury. They were very high on him, and perhaps he could have been in the MLB rotation. And of course don’t forget about Susana.
Arm injuries are an epidemic everywhere now. I’m not sure how you plan for it, unless you’re the Dodgers and just keep bringing in more and more guys. You have to factor injuries into the equation and overstock arms. That’s part of the reason I’m all in on drafting Anderson over Holliday.
An irony here is that over 2024 and 2025, the Nats would rank highly among teams with the fewest number of starters used. Those arms have remained reasonably healthy. They’ve just sucked for the most part (other than Gore).
KW
3 Jul 25 at 11:36 am
@KW – I’ve been wondering if those two points aren’t unrelated – that our pitchers have been mostly healthy and that they’ve been mostly bad.
I don’t think the information needed to validate this hypothesis is public, but I would not be surprised if the Nats have intentionally prioritized health more than some of the other clubs, even at the cost of worse stuff and/or per inning results.
Of course, there’s no actually healthy way to pitch, so we’re still seeing plenty of injuries.
SMS
3 Jul 25 at 12:58 pm
Another piece in the Athletic ripping the “rebuild”:
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6470096/2025/07/03/nationals-rebuild-last-place-dave-martinez/
Curiously, there’s no mention of the lack of spending. I do agree with them on being tired of Davey’s cliches, though.
KW
3 Jul 25 at 4:43 pm
SMS, for the Nats I’m not sure, but the Dodgers’ perpetual spin and velocity quest has DEFINITELY led to a significantly higher injury rate among their pitchers. They currently have ELEVEN pitchers on the 60 day IL!!
I do wonder if Rizzo’s infatuation with height might be part of this. Extremely tall pitchers place less stress on their elbows/shoulders and thus get injured at lesser rates? I’d looked in the offseason, and we had like 10 guys 6’6″ or taller.
With that said, most of the guys to reach the majors aren’t giants, though.
Will
4 Jul 25 at 8:41 am
Several Nats’ questions for Law in his chat this week, for those with an Athletic/NYT subscription:
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6466618/2025/07/02/live-chat-mlb-draft-keith-law-july-2/
On 1/1 pick: “I said last mock I thought it was like 6-8 names . . . I think it’s still probably 4-6 names, maybe 3 guys who they’d take for closer to slot, 3 they’d take but only at a deeper discount. I do think the bonus is going to play a huge part — and it should. There is no player in this draft who is worth 20% more right now than the next-best player.”
On 2024 Nat picks: “Dickerson’s been a lot better than you imply, making hard contact & controlling the zone. The low BABIP isn’t going to stay that way. And I’d still take King over Tibbs right now, even with King struggling in his brief time in AA — swing decisions were always going to be his main issue and AA pitchers are exploiting his willingness to go outside the zone. His contact rates are good, but that ball above the top of the zone that he can get the bat on isn’t necessarily the pitch you want him swinging at. He’s still a plus defender at short with power and strong hand-eye. Bazzell’s been the big disappointment; I haven’t seen him live yet but I have heard from scouts that the swing is different.”
[Remember that Law mentioned earlier that someone had messed with King’s swing as well. What the heck?]
Q: “Time for Cade Cavalli to come back up? He’ll be 27 in a few days, might be time to just see what you can get out of him.”
A: “I don’t like that logic. He needs to show he can get AAA hitters out more frequently before I ask him to get MLB hitters out.”
Someone asked if draft picks would ever be tradeable. Law said that he’d love to see it but doesn’t think it will fly in the new CBA.
Says he hasn’t heard rumors yet about pre-draft deals. I found it curious that he said it’s “too early” for such things, as we’re a week and a half from the draft. The wildest rumor he has heard is that the Angels might take Hernandez at #2.
KW
4 Jul 25 at 6:11 pm
WOW — Nats fire Davey and Rizzo. Frankly, moving on from Davey was overdue. But I really thought Riz was good until he wanted to walk away. Lots to unpack, and I’m sure they’ll be a new post when Todd has time. Rizzo won’t be calling the shots on the draft, though.
KW
6 Jul 25 at 6:41 pm
new posting soon. had people over last night and couldn’t write.
Todd Boss
7 Jul 25 at 7:50 am