We’re through the super regionals, and have a CWS field that is, frankly, stacked. It’s going to be a great CWS.
First, lets recap the Supers.
#1 Wake Forest v #16 Alabama: Wake Forest squeaked out a 5-4 opener, then blasted Alabama 22-5 to move to Omaha. In 5 post-season games, Wake has outscored its opponents 75-16. Wow.
#8 Stanford v Texas: Stanford lost the first but turned things around to squeak past Texas. In game 2, starter Quinn Matthews was allowed to finish a CG on 156 pitches despite an 8-3 lead in one of the more egregious abuses of a starter we’ve seen in the college game in some time.
#5 LSU v #12 Kentucky: LSU blasted Kentucky in game 1 as Paul Skenes wasn’t over-worked (as we can’t say the same for Matthews), getting yanked at 101 pitches in their 14-0 win. They finished off Ky 8-3 on Sunday.
Tennessee v Southern Miss: Tennessee came from a game down to advance past Southern Miss.
TCU v #14 Indiana State (TCU = host instead of the seed due to Indiana State hosting the Special Olympics): this cost Indiana State, as TCU took two straight to advance.
Oregon v Oral Roberts (Oregon = host); Oral Roberts blew a 5 run lead in game one, and STILL managed to advance, becoming just the 3rd fourth-seed from a regional to make it to Omaha since the expansion to 64 teams. (Stony Brook and Fresno State).
#7 UVA v Duke; Duke took out UVA in game one and looked good, but UVA took the next two to advance.
#2 Florida v #15 South Carolina: Florida took two close ones from South Carolina to advance.
Super Regional predictions vs Actual: I only got 4 of 8 in my previous predictions.
CWS Field (with original national seeds driving the teams):
Group 1 (1,4,5,8): Wake Forest, Tennessee, LSU, Stanford
Group 2 (2,3,6,7): Florida, TCU, Oral Roberts, UVA.
Prospect Watch. From Nats perspective all eyes are still on LSU, but now Florida is here too, meaning 3 of the likely top 5 picks are in Omaha for a star studded CWS from a prospect/scouting perspective. Here’s Keith Law’s take on the 15 major draft prospects in Omaha.
LSU: Dylan Crews and Paul Skenes, projected to go 1st and 2nd overall
Florida: Wyatt Langford, projected top 5 pick, along with another arm in Hurston Waldrep as a 1st round projection. A bit further down: Brandon Sproat, Josh Rivera.
Tennessee: Chase Dollander, who was in the 1-1 mix but who has struggled, continues to build up draft sock. A bit further down: Maui Atuna.
Wake Forest: Their RHP Rhett Lowder is a possible top 10. 3B Brock Wilken end of 1st round. A bit further down: Sean Sullivan LHP.
Virginia: their Catcher Kyle Teel and 3B Jake Gelof both top 50 prospects.
Stanford: SS Tommy Troy is a mid-1st rounder
TCU 3B Brayden Taylor an end of 1st rounder
So, lots of draft talent on display in Omaha.
My Predictions?
Group 1: Wake Forest over LSU in the group final, with Tennessee getting a win and Stanford going 2 and out.
Wake leads the nation in pitching … by a full POINT in team ERA. That’s amazing. And they’re no slouches at the plate either, as we’ve seen as they’ve averaged 15 runs a game in the post-season (they’re 5th in team OPS). So that’s a very balanced team. LSU likely throws Skenes in game one against Tennessee, but Tennessee’s been using Dollander as their 2nd starter, so they’ll throw him in an elimination game against Stanford to get an LSU rematch with both teams on their 3rd starter. But LSU’s pitching depth only goes so far, and Wake basically has 3 friday night starters to blow through the draw. Unless Skenes can get another start LSU will struggle to get past Wake and falls in the national semis.
Group 2: Virginia over Florida, with TCU and Oral Roberts finishing 3rd and 4th in some order. UVA leads the nation in team BA, is third in ERA, and will find a way to win. The problem is that UVA plays Florida in the opener and has proven to be a slow starter. But they’re deep and can withstand an early loss.
final: Wake over UVA in an all-ACC CWS final despite half the regional hosts being SEC.
Your likely 1-1 overall pick, Dylan Crews from LSU
So, in years’ past, when the Nats were drafting somewhere besides the top 5, analyzing mock drafts was a lot more fun. We could look at who was predict to go at the top, then we could analyze all the myriad of names that could conceivably fall to the nats wherever they were picking.
In 2023 though, this exercise has proven to be pretty simple. There’s basically two guys who practically every pundit thinks will end up on our team, so this collecting of mock draft exercise seems futile.
Here’s some early takes on the 2023 draft class, with some mocks. By May, consensus amongst most scouts was the same top 5 in some varying order, then a gap to 6 and beyond.
Top 5 expected to be ( not necessarily in this order):
Dylan Crews, OF from LSU, is the current #1 overall projection. Hit 349/.463/.691 as a sophomore for LSU with 22 homers. Plays CF but likely a corner in pro ball at 6’0″ 200lbs of power.
Max Clark, a prep OF from Indiana with an all-Lefty speed/hit tool comparable to Jacoby Ellsbury. Possible 5-tool lefty who can hit 96 on the mound. Vanderbilt commit, isn’t getting to college. Struck out just 3 times in his entire junior season while slashing .577/.717/1.126.
Walker Jenkins, a prep corner OF from NC. Commit to UNC. Underclassman on 18U national team, Projects to 30-home run power, had more walks and homers than Ks his Junior season.
Wyatt Langford, OF, Florida. Huge bat, led Florida in slash lines in 2022 and now projects as a possible CF, turning him into an upper-end 1st rounder.
Paul Skenes, RHP, LSU: Air Force xfer who is helium guy based on Fall 2022 work. Big arm. Exploded onto the scene in Spring 2023, added velocity, now expected top 2 picks.
Other names who appeared in earlier top 5 lists but who have dropped include:
Chase Dollander, the RHP Friday starter for Tennessee in 2022. 103/13 K/BB in 79 innings, 2.39 ERA for Best team in college baseball in 2022. Shooting up draft boards with Jacob deGrom comps in 2022, but struggling in 2023. Slipping down the boards.
Jacob Gonzalez, SS from Ole Miss. Middle of the order bat, slashed .355/.443/.561 for Ole Miss his sophomore season while leading team to CWS title.
Jacob Wilson, SS Grand Canyon. All WAC as a freshman, starred for Team USA summer 2022. Stock increasing late 2022, rising up.
Here’s some early Mock Drafts that we’ve seen. Nats pick #2 but we’ll put in the top 5 for context.
BA 2023 Way Too Early mock 7/20/22 (as in, the day after the 2022 draft): Crews, Clark, Dollander, Jenkins, Gonzalez. This is before we knew that the Nats would pick #2, and there’s no way they’re leaving top-end college talent on the board in a college-rich draft to pick a prep kid like Clark.
BA 2023 Draft Class Rank 7/25/22: Clark, Crews, Jenkins, Gonzalez, Dollander. Crews would be a very, very solid pick at #2, despite our top three prospects also being OFs.
BA First Full Mock post lottery 12/7/22: Crews, Dollander, Langford, Wilson, Gonzalez. Dollander as the top arm would be great, but beware his spring season as Tennessee’s Friday night starter.
MLBPipeline Mock draft 12/15/22 with top 100 release: Crews, Dollander, Clark, Skenes, Langford. MLBPipeline notes that they went chalk to their top 100 at the top, noting that Dollander is the “best pitching prospect since Strasburg.” Fitting if the Nats get him.
So, what do I think will happen? I think Pittsburgh, a notoriously conservative franchise in the draft, will cut a small deal with Crews (giving him the same $$ that he’d get at 2nd overall) and take him 1-1. A positional player is less risky than a pitcher, always. This then lets the Nats take the big arm, the guy who everyone says is the best pitching prospect since Strasburg, and they can start him in High-A or AA like with Strasburg, with an eye on getting to the majors maybe by late 2024.
What if the Pirates take Skenes? Then the Nats trip over themselves to take Crews. I don’t care how many OF prospects we have right now … Crews is that good. I don’t buy that Langford can play CF (if he could, he’d be doing so), and I’d rather have a college guy versus a prep guy.
What if the Pirates don’t take Crews or Skenes? If this happens … I think the Nats take Skenes.
Its College Baseball post-season time, something we’ve followed in this space for years. Here’s a quick guide to the CWS 2023 post season.
First off, some resources for you.
Your final top 25 heading into the post-season according to d1baseball, baseballamerica, and usatoday Coaches poll. All three have Wake Forest #1 overall, a great feat for the smallest school in any power conference.
Local teams in the rankings: UVA is in the 9-11 range on all polls, Maryland is at the edges of the top 25 in all polls, and DMV adjacent teams like West Virginia, and ECU are there as well.
WarrenNolan’s RPI rankings are a very important part of the seeding and selection process, as we’ll discuss in a bit.
Here’s D1Baseball.com’s Tournament Central, my favorite place to track the tourney.
Your top 8 seeds and favorites to make Omaha before play started, in order, along with their RPI and their Strength of Schedule (SoS) denoted:
Wake Forest (RPI=1, SoS=33)
Florida (4,17)
Arkansas (3,4)
Clemson (6,6)
LSU (5,13)
Vanderbilt (7,5)
Virginia (10,57)
Stanford (15,37)
Six of the top eight national seeds are also top 8 of RPI, with UVA getting dinged b/c they typically play such a poor mid-week schedule, and Stanford gets dinged despite crushing the Pac-12 because of a down year in that conference. The two missing top=8 RPI seeds?
Kentucky at #2 RPI based on their #1 strength of schedule. They’re the #12 overall seed, hosting a regional but set to go to LSU in the super regional, a dagger of a matchup for two good teams.
South Carolina at #8 RPI based on their #3 strength of schedule. They’re the #15 overall seed, meaning they project into #2 Florida for another potentially brutal all SEC super regional.
Local DC/MD/VA local teams in the tourney:
Virginia: a top 8 national seed, slightly over seeded. They get a somewhat easier regional with Oklahoma as their #2, and project to host Coastal Carolina in a super regional; they have a pretty clear path to Omaha.
George Mason makes the tourney for the first time in years, and for their troubles are a #4 seed heading to Wake Forest. Brutal draw.
Maryland also heading to Wake’s draw as that regional’s #2 seed; why these two teams aren’t in Charlottesville is kind of beyond me.
West Virginia is heading to Kentucky’s regional as that #2 seed; hard to see them getting out.
Other local teams who we thought had a chance: Virginia Tech’s rpi is 48, but they had a 12-17 ACC record. William & Mary was the next highest ranked DMV team; they were just .500 in CAA play. Liberty took a big step back this year, as did JMU when they matriculated a 1st round pick. Kind of a down year for local schools.
Quick Regional Recaps of the 16 regional action, ordered by National Seed super Regional matchup
#1 Wake Forest silenced any doubters, winning this regional by a combined score of 48-7, topping the surprising mid-major George Mason in the regional final.
#16 Alabama made it look easy, cruising to 3 straight wins to take its regional.
#8 Stanford saved some fact by forcing a Monday decider against TAMU, and then completed the come back to advance.
#9 Miami was outclassed at home by Texas twice to lose the regional in a battle between two of college baseball’s most historic programs.
#5 LSU held serve and moved on in a regional that basically went chalk. LSU threw Skenes in the opener for some reason and he pitched a complete game versus Tulane (who entered the tourney 19-41). 9ip, 2ER 12Ks 0 walks. not sure why they didn’t hold him for Oregon State but it doesn’t matter since they advanced and he’ll go game 1 of the super regional.
#12 Kentucky lost in the winner’s bracket final but came out of the loser’s bracket to force the Monday decider. In that game, they edged Indiana to advance.
#4 Clemson lost a stunner of a 14 inning marathon to last year’s #1 team Tennessee and it seemed to deflate them; they didn’t even get back to the regional final as Tennessee tops Charlotte to advance and knock out the ACC power.
#13 Auburn got beat two straight as a host and Ivy League Penn was in the driver’s seat until Southern Miss beat them twice on Sunday to advance.
#3 Arkansas got embarrassed by TCU, who beat them 20-5 and 12-4 to take the regional and knock out the national seed.
#14 Indiana State outclassed a regional with big-conference names to move on as a mid-major.
#6 Vanderbilt shockingly lost to Xavier in the loser’s bracket to exit before even the regional final, clearing the way for Oregon to advance.
#11 Oklahoma State was absolutely shocked at home, going 2-and-out. The pundits predicted that Oral Roberts (the 4th seed here) was no slouch and indeed they took out Dallas Baptist to take the regional with relative ease.
#7 UVA won a regional that went perfectly chalk, as Army got outscored 25-2 and UVA beat ECU twice to move on.
#10 Coastal Carolina took a huge upset loss on the first day but took out Duke in the regional final to force the Monday winner-take-all. In that game, Duke turned on the offense and cruised 12-3 into the super regionals.
#2 Florida bounced back from total embarrassment as the #2 overall seed and beat Texas Tech twice to move on.
#15 South Carolina battered their way to the regional title, scoring 41 runs in 3 games.
Thus, your Super Regionals are ...
#1 Wake Forest v #16 Alabama
#8 Stanford v Texas
#5 LSU v #12 Kentucky
Tennessee v Southern Miss (Shockingly Southern Miss is the host, not the more famous Tennessee)
TCU v #14 Indiana State (TCU = host for some surprising reason)
Oregon v Oral Roberts (Oregon = host)
#7 UVA v Duke
#2 Florida v #15 South Carolina
Talk about carnage of top seeds. #3 Arkansas, #4 Clemson, #6 Vanderbilt all out, and without putting up much of a fight along the way. Just nine of the sixteen hosts advanced. There’s two super regionals that feature both regional hosts eliminated (how do they determine who hosts?) Both of the under-seeded teams by RPI ended up advancing, with South Carolina making a statement.
Super Regional predictions:
#1 Wake over Alabama
Texas upsets #8 Stanford
#5 LSU squeaks by #12 Kentucky (they won 2 of 3 in SEC regular season)
Tennessee takes out Southern Miss.
TCU continues its upset run over #14 Indiana State
Oregon over the Cinderella Oral Roberts
Duke upsets #7 UVA (they won 2 of 3 in Charlottesville in the ACC regular season)
#15 South Carolina over #2 Florida (they swept Florida in SEC regular season play)
Prospect Watch. From Nats perspective all eyes are on LSU’s super regional, since the top two projected picks both play there. We’ll revisit prospect watch based on the super regionals and who’s still playing. But your top prospects still playing:
LSU: Dylan Crews and Paul Skenes, projected to go 1st and 2nd overall
Florida: Wyatt Langford, projected top 5 pick, along with another arm in Hurston Waldrep as a 1st round projection.
Tennessee: Chase Dollander, who was in the 1-1 mix but who has struggled, continues to build up draft sock.
Wake Forest: Their RHP Rhett Lowder is a possible top 10. 3B Brock Wilken end of 1st round.
Virginia: their Catcher Kyle Teel and 3B Jake Gelof both top 50 prospects.
Big Board: the big board shows the rotations, plus the starters and the roles of the relievers as best as I can figure. Furthermore, the rotations are in the correct “order” and synced across the system.
Changes since opening day: Irvin for Kuhl, who went out with a slight injury and then has been kept down while Irvin came up and, at least initially, looked solid.
Observations: Irvin’s first two starts were fantastic. Even his third was promising, with his numbers inflated by a couple of infield singles and a crummy reliever who let in 3 of Irvin’s inherited runners. Since then though, it has not been good, and Irvin’s ERA now hovers in the mid 5.00 range. He’s giving up way too many base runners (1.68 whip) and I think he needs to head back down to work on his command. Meanwhile, Grey & Gore continue to look solid, if a bit wild, and look like solid rotation pieces for the next 5-6 years. Trevor Williams continues to get by on smoke and mirrors (there’s more than a point difference between his ERA and FIP), and Corbin is who he is at this point, eating up innings for his salary until he runs out his contract at the end of next year.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Irvin. I think the Irvin experiment has trailed off and Kuhl will regain his spot in the rotation for a little while longer. Neither is really deserving, Do you want Irvin to continue to develop in the majors so that you can give innings to a one-year guy like Kuhl?
AAA Rochester:
Rotation: Urena, Adon, Abbott, Peralta, Espino
Changes since Last Month: Just veteran MLFA Urena replacing the promoted Irvin in the rotation.
Observations; The seasonal ERAs of these five starters is, in order: 5.18, 9.35, 4.50, 6.25, and 6.11. That’s awful. It isn’t much better controlling for the last month; none of them have an ERA under 5.00. What’s interesting is that we know (based on last year’s MLB stats) that both Espino and Abbott work far better as relievers versus starters, yet they both continue to stay in the rotation. Urena is 31 and has been awful, Peralta 34 and nearly as bad. I’m not sure what to do with Adon; he’s regressed since his AAA season last year, is falling in the depth chart, and soon may be nearing the “next guy to get cut from the 40-man to make room” territory
Meanwhile, Tommy Romero is kind of like the “6th starter,” a swingman who gets spot starts, and his numbers look great. I’m not sure why we cling to spots for washed up AAA starters in their 30s when we could feature guys who might actually be prospects. I think the team should release Urena and Peralta, put Irvin back here, and put Romero in the rotation in the short term.
Of course, the likely answer to “why is Urena still here” is named Cole Henry, who is doing a re-hab tour of the minors and should return to the AAA rotation soon, likely spelling Urena’s release. Jackson Tetreault is also lurking in rehab, but he’s getting shelled in a-ball right now and doesn’t have anything to prove below AAA, so we could see some shuffling. I’d like to see
Next guy to get promoted: nobody deserving
Next guy to get demoted or released: Urena/Peralta for Henry/Tetreault, then if we need a AA promotion put Abbott or Espino back in the pen.
Changes since April: Hernandez in for Herrera, who seems to have had a season-ending injury in early May.
Observations: The AA rotation is starting to come together. Three of these guys have sub 3.00 ERAs for the month of May (Rutledge with a 1.90 ERA, Cuevas with 2.84, and Hernandez with a 2.70). I’m especially interested to see what Cuevas (age 21) does the rest of the way; a 21yr old in AA is impressive enough, for him to be effective is amazing. Hernandez is a 23MLFA that the team signed out of the Mexican leagues, he’s just 23, and he’s shown to be pretty effective as well; the Mexican league is considered a “AAA-quality” league and I wonder if he’ll be effective if he gets moved up. Amazingly to this observer, the former 1st round pick Rutledge, who I was almost convinced was a complete bust, is the bets of them; 1.90 ERA in May, 0.97 Whip, 20/4 K/BB in 23 innings. Dare I say it … he’s starting to look like a 1st rounder! I mean, should we start putting his name into future MLB rotation consideration along side Cavalli and Henry and Skenes when we draft him? 🙂
The season has also shown that guys who were formerly being used as longer relievers or starters are now clearly one-inning relievers. Evan Lee, Lucas Knowles, and Tim Cate all included.
Next guy to get promoted: Rutledge. Heck, he’s on the 40-man, if he dominates AA another month move him up to AAA and bump one of the retreads there.
Next guy to get demoted or released: Parker. After cruising through the A ball leagues, he’s apparently met his match in AA. Good thing for him is that he’s a lefty with punch-out capabilities, so he’s got bullpen options.
Changes since April: None really, just the addition of Luckham
Observations: Wilmington’s rotation has been harder to track this month thanks to two guys doing rehab starts there, plus some rainouts/double headers making for a bunch of spot starts. Huff and Lara continue to struggle; Lara at age 20 in high-A continues to confuse me; he had a 5.53 era in low-A last year and now has an even higher ERA in High-A this year. Is this good for his development? Why not keep him in low-A, a more age-appropriate league, until he proves he can solve it? Luckham was last month’s darling; he’s come back to earth. Really, the best performer has been Saenz, who gave up just 3 earned runs in the month of June and is repeating the level. Another month like this and he’ll be moving up. Theophile seems like he’s somewhere in rotational limbo, but has a big enough arm to possibly feature more as a reliever.
Changes since April: Denaburg mercifully moved to the bullpen and replaced by Sanchez. Aldonis briefly in the rotation but got hurt. Atencio moved to the bullpen for Caceres.
Observations: Jake Bennett making fast work of Low-A: he had a 33/3 K/BB ratio in 5 starts in May and now sports a 1.93 ERA in 9 starts. Could we finally have a successful 2nd round pick? I think he needs to get out of Low-A, given his draft round and collegiate pedigree. Our other major prospect in Low-A is Susana, who had 4 starts but went just 14 total innings in the month. His numbers are decent, but he has to go deeper in games. 2022 draftee Cornelio is just way too wild (12 walks in 15 May innings). Caceres is an older IFA (he’s 23 just getting to Low-A). Sanchez halved his seasonal ERA in May, so that’s good.
Next guy to get promoted: Bennett
Next guy to get demoted or released: I don’t know; they’ve already demoted Denaburg and Atencio, we need another month to see which of the other guys would go next.
Conclusions: by most accounts, our top starter pitching prospects right now are in rough order:
Cavalli (TJ, out for year)
Susana (scuffling in Low-A)
Bennett (crushing in Low-A, needs to be promoted)
Rutledge (crushing in AA, needs promotion)
Ward (stashed in the MLB bullpen as a rule-5 guy)
Henry (so far so good on come-back from TOS)
Lara (over promoted and struggling in high-A)
Irvin (in the MLB rotation, may need more AAA time)
Parker (struggling in AA)
Aldo Ramirez (hurt, in XST)
When we draft Skenes he’ll take over as #1 on this list.
Could we be choosing 5 from Grey, Gore, Irvin, Cavalli, Henry, Rutledge, Skenes, Ward, and Bennett in a couple years time? That’s the dream.
WASHINGTON, DC – MAY 3: Washington Nationals starting pitcher Jake Irvin (74) pitches during his major league debut against the Chicago Cubs at Nationals Park on May 3, 2023. (Photo by Jonathan Newton/The Washington Post)
An injury to their 5th starter Kuhl and a rain-induced double header gave an opportunity for the Nats to bring up one of their starter prospects, and so most of the Natmosphere got their real first good look at jake Irvin. Lets recap.
Irvin is taller and lankier than I thought; he is listed as 6’6″ 225. He features a relatively smooth delivery that lands him in perfect fielding position. According to Pitch FX data on the night, he showed four pitches (4-seamer, 2-seamer, curve, and change), sat mostly 93, peaked at 95, showed a ton of arm-side run on his sinker (average of 10 inches), had a change that came in on average at 88 (maybe a bit too close to the fastball), and a curve that got him a ton of called strikes. He mixed up the pitches well.
In the first inning, the first pitch he threw sailed on him and nailed the batter right in the back; this runner came around to score despite Irvin mostly handling the top of the powerful Cubs lineup. He punched out Swanson looking, got a little cute with Happ to walk him, got Bellinger out on a first-pitch curve pop-up before giving up a decently hit single to score a run.
His second inning was pretty clean; punchout of Hosmer, liner, then a grounder to 2nd. In the third, he’s back at the top of the order; he got a soft-lineout from the leadoff Hoerner, got Swanson out again on a pop-up, again pitched around Happ to walk him for the second time, then punched out Bellinger. That’s a great way to get through the heart of the order a second time. In the fourth, the ball never left the infield and he got an infield single up the middle erased with a GIDP.
In the fifth, he was again at the bottom of the order and looking to hit the top a third time. Unfortunately he walked the #8 hitter, who promptly stole second. He got the #9 hitter to line-out to left, no damage and no runners advancing. Then he walks the leadoff hitter, so you have 1st and 2nd with one out and Swanson coming up. Instead of letting him work through it, Martinez yanked him, and his replacement Machado immediately got a GIDP to end the inning.
Final line: 4 1/3, just 2 hits ( one infield, one RBI single in the 1st that would have been meaning less without the HBP), but 4 walks (Happ twice) and 3 punchouts. 81 pitches and just 45 strikes, so he was definitely wild and his pitch count was elevated with all the walks, but he was in position to go six full perhaps just broaching 100 pitches.
All in all, a really nice debut, and honestly i’d rather see Irvin in there right now than Kuhl, so look for Kuhl to have his DL stint extended to give Irvin another start.
And, I gotta say, If we continue with Grey and Gore being impressive, and suddenly Irvin becomes serviceable, and we somehow get Cavalli and Henry back from injury … well that’s a pretty good rotation of young, controllable, cheap starters. Hey, we deserve some good luck.
Jake Bennett might be the best looking starter prospect in the system right now. Photo from OSU
Nearly every year I get excited when we see who the rotations are at the various full-season levels, and then every year i … run out of time to check back in. I used to do “rotation review ” posts after every pass through the rotations, giving good/bad/holding serve notifications, but that was just way, way too much work for what’s an “in my spare time” endeavor.
But here we are, 2023, and we’ve seen a small burst of competence out of the big club, plus some points of interest elsewhere, so i thought i’d do a “state of the rotation” after a few turns through.
Important links for this analysis:
Big Board: the big board shows the rotations, plus the starters and the roles of the relievers as best as I can figure. Furthermore, the rotations are in the correct “order” and synced across the system.
Changes since opening day: none, amazingly. We all knew Strasburg was going to start on the DL, and Cavalli’s injury was the dagger of spring, but through the first month the MLB rotation has not deviated. Pretty amazing for a last place team that is depending on two near-rookies and an NRI.
Observations: I don’t think anyone is surprised that Corbin’s ERA is nearly 6.00. He’s yet to have what i’d call a “good” outing despite two quality starts. He remains in the rotation thanks to his salary and a lack of better options. Kuhl’s 7.36 ERA (as of this writing) is not gonna get it done, especially for an NRI. He has to shape up and fast. Williams signed a 2 year deal so he’s not going anywhere fast, and he’s holding stead right at a league average 101 ERA+ through 5 starts. Grey’s fip slightly flatters his era, but still through 5 starts he’s got solid numbers and looks to improve on last year. For me the big win so far is the performance of Gore, who completely shut down the Mets this week and seems to improve start to start. So far in 2023, he’s looking like the real deal and is looking entirely like the trade bounty he was meant to be last year.
Next guy to get cut: Kuhl. NRI, no investment, and a 7 ERA spells doom. Is there a AAA replacement? No there isn’t (read next section), so one or two more crap starts and, if it were me, i’d be putting Ward into the rotation.
AAA Rochester:
Rotation: Adon, Irvin, Espino, Abbott, Peralta
Changes since Opening Day: Espino hit the DL right after his first start, which then gave starts to Kilome and T.Romero, both of whom were awful. Kilome posted a 19+ ERA in 2 starts and was released, while Romero posted a 9+ ERA in 2 starts/4 games and is on the DL.
Of course, Rochester is missing two names in particular that we all WANTED to see there, in Henry and Tetreault, but they’re hurt, so instead we get the two 2022 LRs from the big club Abbott and Espino taking AAA starts.
Observations; I think we all know what we have in Espino and Abbott at this point: 7th/8th bullpen arms who can soak up in long relief, even be decent as relievers, but who cannot be effective starters. Really, the same with Peralta, who has 10yrs of MLB experience at this point. I’m less interested in these guys as I am in the two prospects. Adon was awful with a capital-A last year, so 2023 is an important bounce back season, and so far, he’s doing ok; a mid 4-s Era, a bit too many base runners, but otherwise an improvement. Our other important arm here is Irvin; he’s got similar numbers to Irvin but his ERA is a point higher due to some unluckiness. Unfortunately, neither guy is doing a sub 2.00 dominance in AAA like we’d like to see. So, we’ll move on.
Next guy to get promoted: nobody: not one of the AAA starters is making any case right now to push for a promotion and take the place of Kuhl.
Next guy to get demoted or released: Abbott and Romero. Abbott is on the 40man and might be the first guy off if the team needs a slot, based on his current AAA ERA. Romero’s putting more than 2runners on per inning and it seems like he’s short for the team if they need a spot.
AA Harrisburg:
Rotation: Rutledge, Parker, Herrera (might be LR), Troop, Cuevas
Changes since Opening Day: None. AA has several guys who used to be starters (Cate, Gausch, Evan Lee, Carrillo) who I thought might be in the rotation, but clearly have all now been made relievers. Cate is the most amazing fall; he was the opening day starter in AA two years ago, now he’s a loogy. I’m slightly surprised Lee isn’t being looked at as a starter, given his big arm, and especially since one of the 5 guys in this rotation is clearly an org guy/innings eater in Herrera, but that’s just me.
Observations: Troop and Herrera are 26 and 27 respectively, both have AAA time (Herrera was in AAA in 2016!), and the presence of both in AA is probably an indictment of our pitching development lately. Clearly instead of these two you’d like to see Cate and Carrera in the rotation … but they just couldn’t cut it. So, lets focus on the prospects. The big name here is Rutledge, who struggled in Low-A, got on the 40-man and now sits in AA. So far, not bad for Rutledge, who’s had some bad luck and a lot of IR-S (Inherited Runners – Scored) from his relievers to inflate his ERA. I’m a huge Rutledge critic, but i like what i’ve seen so far. Parker may have finally matriculated to a level he can’t handle and has an ERA north of 7. He also can’t find the plate and has 16 walks in 14 IPs; hard to win when you’re giving up a baserunner an inning before anybody gets a hit. Cuevas’ breakout 2022 has come to a screeching halt in AA as well, with the highest BAA of any starter.
Next guy to get promoted: nobody: If they absolutely had to pull someone up from AA i’d probably go with Troop, who has a .216 BAA despite his ERA/FIP/WHIP peripherals.
Next guy to get demoted or released: Cuevas is only 21 and is struggling; i could see him going back to High-A soon if there was someone to take his spot.
High-A Wilmington
Rotation: Lara, Saenz, Huff, Theophile, Alvarez
Changes since Opening Day: Luckham has taken two starts, seemingly in place of Theophile, and it remains to be seen how it shakes out. Former SPs Knowles and Hernandez have been bumped to the bullpen
Observations: Luckham has been the high performer so far, a 2022 15th rounder who was used in middle relief last year. It is early, but his stuff looks great so far and he’s seemingly bumped a more valued prospect out of the rotation for now. Huff in the rotation was a surprise to this observer; he was never used as a starter last year, but that may just be due to it being his draft year as well. He’s getting hit around plenty though so far unfortunately, with a BAA in the .325 range. Andry Lara is the highest profile prospect here, by far, and he continues to underwhelm. The guy has a live arm with easy mid 90s speed, but doesn’t get the punch outs you’d expect. He’s got a solid BAA and has good control (4 walks in 18ip), but not enough swing and miss. I’m sure the Nats brass is just as frustrated. Saenz keeps on treading water, not impressing but not jeopardizing his rotation spot. Theophile only has 2 starts and 9IP as of this writing, too early to pass any judgement.
Next guy to get promoted: Probably Luckham, but i’d want to see him for half a season first.
Next guy to get demoted or released: Huff seems likely to get dumped back to the bullpen soon, if the team wants to replace him in the rotation and go with the 5 from 6 as discussed earlier.
Changes since Opening Day: Atencio is probably more of a LR, and the team has given two other starts to clearly relievers when weather issues or last minute changes occur (we saw one of those this week with Susana getting yanked last minute). Aldonis seems like he’s in the mix too, perhaps at the expense of Denaburg. Read on.
Observations: Several big-time important prospects to the team here. Susana’s line so far: big arm, lots of Ks, can’t find the plate (10 walks in 9 innings), and got skipped in the rotation for an unknown reason recently. Not good. Bennett, our 2nd rounder in 2022, has been very solid, presenting like the classy veteran college pitcher we like. 21/5 K/BB in 15 innings, 1.11 whip, sub 3.00 ERA. So far so good for Bennett. We havn’t really seen a lot of Aldonis, but he was solid last year in Low-A and has been solid in his first two low-A starts this year. A good beginning, and something I hope he builds on. 2022 7th rounder Cornelio has gotten whacked around, but he’s not going anywhere. Lastly we come to Denaburg, who has looked awful in 2 starts and might be at the end of his string. He’s 23, already has passed through rule-5, and I’m not sure if he can get anybody out anymore.
Next guy to get promoted: Bennett
Next guy to get demoted or released: Denaburg. At some point you have to cut bait on a 1st rounder and admit defeat. I know the Nats have a hard time with this, especially when they see his big, glaring signing bonus. But he just has never come back from his arm injuries.
Before I clear out the “NRI color coding” on the Big Board, I thought i’d write out a bit about the 2023 spring training competitions and the fact that yet again a slew of Non Roster Invites (NRIs) have made the team.
So, Opening day NRIs to make roster and the circumstances behind each
Chad Kuhl makes the roster as the 5th starter when a massive gap in the rotation opens up with Cavalli’s arm injury. I thought perhaps rule5 pick Thad Ward had a shot here, but the team seemed to decide early he was going to hang in the bullpen for now. There were a slew of 40-man member starters in camp (Adon, Irvin, Abbott, Espino), but none of them made a legitimate case above Kuhl. Abbott and Espino seem to have proved last year they were better in relief, and both were sent down to AAA relatively early.
Hobie Harris: the team knew they were going to be down one RH reliever in Rainey, but didn’t count on Arano’s injury, which opened up a spot. Weems is the only other RH reliever on the 40-man and seems like he’ll be the first guy cut if they need space, which left the door open for Harris, who had a fantastic spring.
Anthony Banda slid into the sole lefty spot in the bullpen thanks mostly to Doolittle getting hurt. There are a couple other lefty relievers on the 40-man, but they’re both too young. This was always going to a NRI, and Banda won.
Michael Chavis might be the biggest surprise NRI to get added, in that the team had an identical player in Jake Alu who was just added, plus a former 1st rounder in Downs who they were taking a shot at. In the end, when Kieboom got hurt (yet again) it sealed the fate of others, who failed to impress during spring.
Which of the rest of the NRIs might we see this year? I fully expect another season of RH reliever churn, so look for guys like Colome and Machado to get re-added if they stay with the team and start out well. A couple of the NRIs are legit prospects (Brzycky) who seem like they’ll be up at some point. Perhaps later in the year we’ll see a return to the 40-man for guys like Casey and Hernandez.
Skenes has gone from two-way 1st rounder to near 1-1 in just a few starts. Photo via Valley Shook
So, the Nats have the #2 overall pick in 2023’s June amateur draft, only behind Pittsburgh at the top.
While its early in the season, there’s a couple of interesting points to keep up with. The consensus #1 pick right now continues to be LSU outfielder Dylan Crews, and he’s done absolutely nothing to dissuade evaluators of that 1-1 pick so far this season. Through last weekend’s series, Crews’ batting stats look more like a slow-pitch softball hitter’s stats: .531/.658/.988 slash line, 9 homers in 81 ABs, 26 walks to 12 Ks. LSU’s early schedule was a bit easy, but Crews has kept up his performance through the first couple of SEC league matches.
Pittsburgh is notoriously risk adverse in the draft, and there’s nothing that says “risk aversion” more than taking a College outfielder. At this point in the process, i’d be completely floored if Pittsburgh didn’t take Crews.
Which leaves the Nationals with their pick of anyone else.
Now, in the odd case that Pittsburgh decides to be clever and signs an under-slot deal at 1-1 with someone else (something like what Baltimore did recently), The Nats would be fools not to take this guy. Yes our top 3 prospects are all outfielder prospects. No its not a position of need. But this is baseball, not the NBA or NFL. You do not draft for need; you draft the best player available.
But this article is not about Crews. Its about the realities of the Nats current farm system (i.e. almost no pitcher depth) and the emergence of a near 1-1 player in this draft: LSU’s Friday night starter Paul Skenes. Skenes was an Air Force transfer who put up solid numbers in Colorado as a two-way player (not that he’s hitting for LSU’s powerful lineup) before moving into the SEC. And all he’s done since arriving is dominate. Here’s his pitching lines on a week to week basis so far:
Home vs Western Michigan: 6IP, 3 hits, 0 Runs 12/1 K/BB.
Neutral vs Kansas State: 6IP, 2 hits, 1 ER, 11/2 K/BB
Home vs Butler: 6IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 13/0 K/BB
Home vs Samford: 6Ip, 2 hits, 1 ER, 12/1 K/BB
Away vs Texas A&M: 6.1 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER, 11/0 K/BB
Home vs Arkansas: 7ip, 2 hits, 1ER, 12/3 K/BB
Total? 6 starts, 37.1 innings, just 14 hits allowed to go with a gaudy
Maybe you could quibble about the quality of his first few starts, but TAMU was ranked 15th in the nation when they met two weeks ago, and Arkansas was ranked 3rd when they met in Baton Rouge. Plus Kansas State is a power-5 conference team and Samford is no slouch.
This guy is legit, and he’s legitimately shutting down some of the best teams in college baseball.
Scouting reports on him have not really caught up to what he’s doing so far in 2023. MLBpipeline says the following: “After working at 93-95 mph and touching 99 with his fastball last spring, Skenes operated at 95-99 mph during fall practice, and the flat approach angle and carry on his heater make it even more difficult to hit. His slider has improved at LSU, becoming an 85-88 mph beast with sharp break when it’s on, though it can get loose at times. His power changeup arrives at 88-91 mph with fade and shows signs of becoming a solid offering.“
Skenes is hitting 100, 101 now. He’s sitting upper 90s with three pitches. Its a bit early, but he’s performed against two tough SEC teams.
Its been a busy month for me, and i’m only partially paying attention to Nats headlines. Earlier this week, I did notice/hear that Cade Cavalli had been pulled from a start with something related to an elbow, and while it didn’t register with me at the time, eventually the news came out.
Tommy John. Full tear. Out 12-18 months.
Gut-punch.
The Nationals’ starting pitching depth has really taken a beating in the last couple of years.
Strasburg: thirty IP in 3 years and zero faith that he’ll ever return.
Corbin has forgotten how to pitch.
Grey had an ERA > 5.00 and a FIP of nearly 6.00 in the majors.
Rutledge can’t get any one out in Low-A (and is laughably assigned to AA right now)
Henry had TOS, the same thing that may be ending Strasburg’s career.
Adon literally couldn’t get anyone out in the majors.
Carrillo couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn and is now a AA reliever.
Irvin is back after TJ but is no where near resembling the 2nd round form he exhibited in College.
Denaburg returned after lenghly absences and is no longer considered even a top 30 prospect
Cate forgot how to pitch and was outrighted.
Romero finally crossed the imaginary line keeping him employed with the team with his latest transgression (not that he was considered a prospect anymore…)
Lara got lit up in Low A while eating pizza and burgers (anyone believe his listed weight of 180?)
… and now Cafalli is out for a while.
That’s your 2020 1st rounder, 2020 2nd rounder, 2019 1st rounder, 2018 1st rounder, 2018 2nd rounder, 2017 1st rounder, $60M in payroll, and a couple of significant prospects for whom we dumped Scherzer and Turner. In other words, that’s nearly every top draft pick for four years running, a massive chunk of your current payroll, and every arm we got in return for dumping two franchise players two years ago.
What a debacle.
The Nats have almost zero Arms in the upper minors pipeline at this point who you’d look at as an up and coming replacement. Why? Because multiple years of futility drafting arms has badly caught up with this team. Who sounds promising? 2022 2nd rounder Bennett hasn’t done anything to embarrass or hurt himself yet. that’s good. Parker continues to get people out despite having very little “stuff” as the scouting reports claim. Theophile showed some promise last year before getting promoted. Maybe Susana can amount to something, or Aldo Ramirez. But that’s the entire system. anyone in FCL or DSL is 5 years from making an impact.
It could be a dark, or expensive, 5 years for this team. Consider how many top end offensive prospects we have. If those guys come up and start really cranking … they by themselves can power the team to a 500 record. Kinda like what happened to this team between 2010 and 2011. The team went from 59 wins in 2009 to 69 wins in 2010 to a .500 record in 2011. We all know what happened then. So, unless this team can find more arms somewhere, they may be buying them on the open market to support what could be a pretty good hitting team in a few years.
We havn’t talked much yet about the 2023 draft, but I’ll bet you $1 right now we got back to an all-pitcher draft like we used to do. And that’ll start at the top, where there’s a couple of big-time SEC arms likely for the taking in Chase Dollander and Paul Skenes. Dollander was a 1-1 guy last year, but hasn’t been quite as impressive as Skenes: in 4 starts this year he’s 4-0, 48-4 K/BB and has given up just 8 hits in 24 innings. Ok, so those starts were against Western Michigan, Kansas State, Butler, and Samford, so not that impressive, but still against D1 hitters.
For 2023, maybe we’ll find some gold like we’ve done with Meneses. But man we could use some good news on the pitching front.
Next up during the best time of year (Prospect Season!) is Keith Law, who was a long-time ESPN prospect guy before pivoting to the Athletic, where he’s been their main guy for several years now.
Disclosure: of all the prospect writers, I like Law best. Therefore, i’m more likely to like where he ranks people.
Law is more ceiling oriented than floor; you’re more likely to find a random 18yr old than the 25yr old in AAA who hit .300 but who plays 2B/LF (ahem, Jake Alu). So, keep that in mind.
Here’s his top 20+ for the system.
Klaw Rank
Last Name
First Name
Position
2022 Level
Year Signed/Drafted
Acquisition
Bonsu
1
Wood
James
OF (Corner)
Low-A
2021 2nd
Trade
2600000
2
Green
Elijah
OF (CF)
FCL
2022 1st
Draft
6500000
3
Hassell III
Robert
OF (CF)
High-A
2020 1st
Trade
4300000
4
Cavalli
Cade
RHP (Starter)
AAA
2020 1st
Draft
3027000
5
House
Brady
SS/3B
Low-A
2021 1st
Draft
5000000
6
Susana
Jarlin
RHP (Starter)
FCL
2022 IFA
Trade
1700000
7
Henry
Cole
RHP (Starter)
AA
2020 2nd
Draft
2000000
8
Vaquero
Cristian
OF (CF)
XST
2022 IFA
IFA
4900000
9
De La Rosa
Jeremy
OF (Corner)
Low-A
2018 IFA
IFA
300000
10
Bennett
Jake
LHP (Starter)
FCL
2022 2nd
Draft
1734800
11
Irvin
Jake
RHP (Starter)
High-A
2018 4th
Draft
550000
12
Rutledge
Jackson
RHP (Starter)
Low-A
2019 1st
Draft
3450000
13
Cruz
Armando
SS
XST
2021 IFA
IFA
3900000
14
Lara
Andry
RHP (Starter)
Low-A
2019 IFA
IFA
1250000
15
Quintana
Roismar
OF (CF)
XST
2019 IFA
IFA
820000
16
Downs
Jeter
2B
OO - AAA
2017 1st
Waivers
1825000
17
Lile
Daylen
OF (CF)
XST (TJ)
2021 2nd
Draft
1750000
18
White
T.J.
OF (Corner)
Low-A
2021 5th
Draft
400000
19
Alu
Jake
3B
AA
2019 24th
Draft
10000
20
Ferrer
Jose
LHP (Reliever)
Low-A
2017 IFA
IFA
?
21
Lipscomb
Trey
3B
Low-A
2022 3rd
Draft
758500
22
Carrillo
Gerardo
RHP (Reliever)
AA
2016 IFA
Trade
75000
23
McKenzie
Jared
OF (CF)
Low-A
2022 5th
Draft
410500
24
Brzykcy
Zach
RHP (Reliever)
High-A
2020 NDFA
NDFA
20000
25
Cox
Brenner
OF (CF)
FCL
2022 4th
Draft
1000000
26
Valera
Leonel
SS
OO - ?
?
MLFA
?
27
Sanchez
Jose
SS
High-A
2016 IFA
IFA
950000
28
Thomas
Johnathan
?
?
?
Draft
?
29
Baker
Darren
2B
High-A
2021 10th
Draft
146800
30
Ramirez
Aldo
RHP (Starter)
XST (inj)
2018 IFA
Trade
450000
31
Ward
Thad
RHP (Starter)
OO - AA
2018 5th
Rule-5
275000
,
And here’s some reactions
Same top 5 as everyone else.
But, he’s got Green above Hassell, which is kind of rare, and is indicative of ceiling based analysis. Law thinks both Wood and Greene could be special and ranks them accordingly.
Law is one of the few to keep Cole Henry in the top 10; he notes the TOS surgery, but also notes Henry’s command and raw stuff was #2 starter before the injury. We’ll just see what happens. We’re all hoping he returns at some semblance of his former self.
He’s high man on Jake Irvin, putting him at #11 just below Bennett at 10. Which makes perfect sense honestly, b/c they’re the same pitcher. Big body, control and off-speed guys who project to be 4th/5th starters. One’s a brand new draft pick, one was at AA last year. It’s just kind of mind boggling that one shop had Irvin at 35 and MLBpipeline didn’t even rank him in their top 30 last mid-season.
Oh my god, he has Rutledge ranked #12. Maybe my fan-boy love for Law is ending. He’s kind of iffy in his analysis, noting that Rutledge throws hard and maintains velocity, but doesn’t seem to have much RPMs or a third pitch. Hint to Nats Player Development: THAT MEANS HE’S A RELIEVER. Maybe 2023 is the year they realize that Rutledge can either be a shutdown 8th inning guy in the majors or a failing starter in High-A.
Waiver claim Jeter Downs at #16. Law makes a good point: the guy was in AAA before the Pandemic, had made AA by the time he was 21. So the talent is there somewhere. Though, the Nats aren’t exactly renown for fixing reclamation projects. So, we’ll see. Maybe he’s a change of scenery guy. But nobody else is this high on Downs.
He’s a little lower on White than others, but does note that the guy is super young. Law also points out the obvious; given the Nats prospect OF depth (five of our top 10 are outfielders), a guy like White probably is getting bumped to 1B sooner than later. Which mean’s he’s *really* gonna have to hit his way to the majors.
He actually mentions Alu at #19. I’m shocked.
The first shop to mention MLFA/NRI Leonel Valera in any capacity. It isn’t often you see a MLFA getting prospect buzz, but Law seems to like his tools.
Also the first pundit to mention Jose Sanchez, our SS/3B in High-A, in some time. This guy was once ranked as high as 8th in the system in 2019. Maybe he can regain his mojo.
His last honorable mention was our Rule-5 pickup Ward, ranking him roughly 30th when other shops have him in the teens.
Players Law is missing:
No mention of Mitchell Parker. I’m guessing he thinks Parker’s success is smoke and mirrors lefty with funky stuff. At some point Parker will hit a wall and stop getting guys out regularly; lets hope its in Washington and not Harrisburg.
No Cronin; no surprise there, since Cronin entered pro baseball as a reliever and Law doesn’t rate relievers as prospets.
No Evan Lee; i guess he really has to show us something health wise.
No mention of our Catcher depth Pineda or Millas. Probably not surprising.
No mention of anyone in our IFA class. Might be too early, or might be that we didn’t give out a $4M bonus this year.
Infante completely off the list; but that’s the same with all the other pundits too. Great 2nd rounder!
Lastly … no Antuna, though Law gives him special mention as having fallen so far.
