Nationals Arm Race

Updated for the 2019 draft

In 2018, just four players from the top 10 rounds failed to come to terms with their drafting team.  This was slightly higher than the previous couple of seasons, but interesting this year because all four non-signing players were basically the same situation: high-end 1st round prep players with big price tags who in the end each turned down at least $2M each (and in some cases a ton more) to go off to school and lock themselves in for 3 years of playing for unaccountable, arm shredding, self-interested NCAA coaches who often could care less about player development and more about their next conference title and regional hosting bid.

And each of them probably made a huge mistake.

Its a common refrain among pundits in the amateur baseball world (Keith Law in particular) that HS players should “take the money” if they’re drafted high enough.   Certainly any first rounder would be a fool to turn away that kind of money, and mostly any prep player offered something in the upper 6 figure range should give serious consideration.  MLB contracts generally include college tuition … so even if you sign out of HS you still have 4 years fully paid for in case you wash out.  So instead of gambling on your health, or the fickleness of the baseball draft (where one bad start can cost you 30 spots in the draft and millions of dollars), take the cash when its offered.

But, don’t take our word for it.  Lets look at the empirical evidence of every player over the past seven drafts who has forgone the cash to see if there’s any trends.

Here’s a summary of the last few years of players who did not sign from the top 10 rounds.  This only goes back to 2012, since that’s the beginning of the new draft rules.

• 2021: 3
• 2020: ?
• 2019: 2
• 2018: 4 (all 1st or supp-1st rounders)
• 2017: 3
• 2016: 2
• 2015: 6
• 2014: 6 (two of which were Nats picks: Andrew Suarez and Austin Byler in that ill-fated draft class, and one more who didn’t sign thanks to Houston’s screwing up the Brady Aiken deal and who was eventually granted free agency).
• 2013: 8
• 2012: 8

These are the total non-signings for the top ten ROUNDS of draftees, meaning anywhere between 300 and 350 guys comprising the top 10 rounds and supplementals.  So in the seven years and roughly 2200 players drafted in the top 10 rounds in the last 7 seasons, a grand total of 37 have failed to sign.

Side note: each year we hear about all these players who aren’t going to sign or that negotiations are tough, when in reality the modern CBA rules nearly guarantee 100% signing among drafted players (unless there’s a huge misunderstanding on draft day, or a huge disagreement about medicals).  The draft pools are structured so that the penalties for NOT signing players can cascade and affect your ability to sign other players  (see Houston’s issue in the 2014 draft), so teams are now basically calling players in advance and saying, “If we draft you at X, will you sign for $Y?” … so the only reason players don’t sign is if there’s a serious breakdown or mis-understanding.

So, why do i say that you should always take the money?  Well, lets ask ourselves: out of these 37 players who didn’t sign.. who actually IMPROVED their draft status by not signing?  Lets go year by year and look at the players who failed to sign.

(a caveat here: I did not look at the dollar amounts offered here; this is basically draft round analysis.  Its possible that a 5th rounder in one year went in the 8th the next and got offered more money … but its quite rare with the new draft rules and bonus pools.  Everything changed with the new CBA that went into effect in 2012.  The Nats in particular spent $14.6M on draft bonuses in 2011.  The next  year?  $4.6M, with most of it going to one player in Lucas Giolito).

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2021: 3 players did not sign from the top 10 rounds:

• Kumar Rocker, RHP Vanderbilt, in a well publicized blow-up, the Mets drafted Rocker 10th overall and made a huge splash announcing a $6M over-slot bonus .. then ran into issues with his medicals, resulting in the two sides failing to agree on anything and the Mets passing on the Vanderbilt star altogether.  Rocker’s agent (ahem, “advisor”) Scott Boras of course refused to make his medicals available ahead of time, and of course claimed that there was no injury, but the damage is now done.  Rocker cannot go back to school, and will likely go to independent ball to re-enter the draft in 2022.
• Jud Fabian, OF Florida; saw his draft stock fall from a possible top-5 pick all the way out of the first round.  But, he apparently had a $3M deal with some team in the second, but those plans were foiled when Boston selected him at the beginning of the 2nd round.  Fabian stuck to his bonus demands, and the two sides could not reach an agreement.  Fabian will go back to school.
• Alex Ulloa, prep SS from Texas failed to come to terms with Houston as a 4th round pick.  He’s Oklahoma State committed, but rumblings he may go Juco to re-enter the draft in 2022.

Verdict: Its hard to believe Rocker will be able to beat $6M, but who knows.  Fabian will lose leverage coming back in 2022 as a senior, and Ulloa will have some time to improve on his 4th round bonus dollars.

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2020: in a shortened 5-round Covid-related draft, not one player picked in the 5 rounds failed to sign.

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2019: 2 players did not sign from the top 10 rounds

• Brandon Sproat, RHP Fla HS 7th/205 overall by Texas.  $222,100 slot value, which wasn’t enough to buy Sproat out of his commitment to Florida.
• Wyatt Hendrie, C from Calif Juco 10th/312 overall by Chicago Cubs.  $142,200 slot value.  Cubs seemingly ran into slot issues with both 10th and 11th rounder, and Hendrie wouldn’t take under slot.

Verdict: both players are still in College as of mid 2021; Hendrie was draft eligible in the shortened 2020 draft but was not taken and is now enrolled at San Diego State, presumably not eligible until 2022.

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2018: 4 players did not sign

• Carter Stewart, RHP Fla HS. 1st/8th overall. Atlanta didn’t like Physical, offered 40% of slot value ($1.9M); initially slated to Mississippi State.  Update: However, he did an about face, went to a Juco instead with the plan on re-entering the 2019 draft.  When he struggled in Juco and fell to a mid 2nd round projection … he attempted an end-around of the MLB draft rules and signed to play in japan, a situation I detailed in this space.  2021 update: he has graduated the Japan minor leagues into the majors at this point but has not found his foothold there yet.
• Matt McLain: 2B Calif HS. 1st/25: Asked $3M, Arizona offered $2.6M didn’t budge, going to UCLA.  Update: picked 17th overall in the 2021 draft and signed for $4.63M.
• JT Ginn: RHP Miss HS. 1st/30th: LA dodgers offered $2.4M, asking $2.9M, going to Mississippi State.  Update: drafted 2nd round/52nd overall in 2020 draft, signed for $2.9M with the Mets in a well over-slot deal.  So two years later he got his asking number.
• Gunnar Hoglund: LHP Fla HS. 1supp/36: Pittsburgh didn’t like physical, low-balled and he declined. going to Ole Miss.  2021; was projected as a top 10 pick, hurt his arm, had TJ but still got drafted 19th overall by Toronto and signed for $3.25M.

McLean drastically improved his stock, Ginn got what he wanted, and Hoglund (despite his injury) got paid.  I already detailed why I think Stewart’s deal is smart.

Verdict: All four made the right decision.

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2017: 3 players did not sign

• Drew Rasmussen, RHP, Oregon State, 1s/31st overall. Failed to sign with Tampa, who (I guess) didn’t like his medicals.  He was coming back from TJ and only had a few weeks of action before the draft. Went 6th round in 2018 to Milwaukee in 2018
• Jack Conlon, RHP, Clements HS (Sugar Land, Texas). 4th round/128 overall. Failed to sign with Baltimore, went to Texas A&M.  Update: left TAMU, went to San Jacinto, then enrolled in Rice and sat out 2020.  However, he wasn’t on the 2021 roster, and its unclear where he’s playing at this point.
• Jo Jo Booker, RHP, Miller HS (Brewton, Ala.). 5th round/145 overall. failed to sign with LA Angels, with to South Alabama.  Was not drafted in 2020 or 2021 out of USA; unclear if he will return for a 5th season or if he is done.

Two players who ended up playing themselves out of any bonus dollars.  Rasmussen didn’t turn down the Rays as much as they refused to tender him a contract … they must have tendered him something because they got a comp pick in 2018 draft.  So he turned down 40% of first round money in 2017 to sign an under-slot deal in the 6th round of 2018 ($135k, just $10k more than the non-top 10 rounds minimum).  I’d say this was a bad move by the player unless Tampa flat out refused to pay a dollar.

Verdict: 1 worsened his draft position, 2 missed out on any draft money.

2016: 2 players did not sign

• Nick Lodolo: 1S/41st overall; LHP from Damien HS in California. failed to sign with Pittsburgh, went to TCU instead, draft eligible in 2019.  In 2021, drafted 7th overall, signed for $5.43M.
• Tyler Buffett: 7th/217 overall; RHP, failed to sign with Houston. returned to Oklahoma State, drafted in 6th round in 2017 and signed with Cincinnati

Lodolo went to school (an arm-shredder program in TCU even) and went from 41st overall to 7th overall, with probably 3x the bonus.  Furthermore, by 2021 he was one of the best pitching prospects in the game.  Meanwhile Buffett improved his draft position one round by going back to school.

Verdict: 1 drastically improved his draft pick and money, 1 improved his draft position one round.

2015: 6 guys did not sign.

• Kyle Funkhouser: 1st/35th overall: RHP from Louisville, failed to sign with LA Dodgers, turning down an above-slot $2M. 4th rounder in 2016, signed with Detroit.
• Brady Singer, 2nd/56th overall: RHP Florida HS. failed to sign with Toronto, went to Florida and was 1st rounder in 2018, signed with Kansas City
• Jonathan Hughes, 2nd/68th overall: RHP Georgia HS. failed to sign with Baltimore, went to Georgia Tech and not even drafted in 2018…
• Kyle Cody, 2nd/73rd overall: RHP U Kentucky. failed to sign with Minnesota, drafted in 6th round in 2016 and signed with Texas
• Nicholas Shumpert, 7th/220th overall. SS Colorado HS. failed to sign with Detroit. Went to San Jacinto CC, drafted in 28th round 2016 by Atlanta and signed.
• Kep Brown, 10th/311 overall. RF South Carolina HS, failed to sign with LA Dodgers. went to Juco, then to UNC-Wilmington, not drafted in 2018.

Funkhouser was the biggest “whoops” here; a poor spring took him from his pre-season top 10 draft position all the way out of the first round, but he still demanded upper 1st round money.  He didn’t get it … and then fell to the 4th round the next year.  That was a big fail.  Singer clearly improved on his 2nd round status by going to college.    Cody slipped from being a 2nd rounder to a 6th rounder.  The other three guys drastically fell on draft boards; one of them going from a 10th rounder to not even being drafted.

Verdict: 1 improved, 5 hurt draft stock

2014: 6 failed to sign

• Brady Aiken: 1/1 overall, RHP from San Diego HS. failed to sign with Houston, went to IMG Academy in FL, drafted 1/17 by Cleveland
• Andrew Suarez: 2nd/57 overall LHP from UMiami, failed to sign with Washington. Drafted 2nd round/61st overall in 2015 by San Francisco
• Trevor Megill; 3rd/104th overall RHP from Loyola Marymount. failed to sign with Boston, drafted 7th/207 in 2015 draft and signed with San Diego
• Jacob Nix: 5th/136 RHP from Los Alomitos HS; couldn’t sign when Tampa lost bonus money, sued, FA, signed with San Diego
• Zack Zehner: 7th/204 OF from Cal Poly, failed to sign with Toronto. Drafted 18th round 2015 and signed with NYY
• Austin Byler, 9th/274 1B from nevada-Reno. failed to sign with Washington, drafted 11th round in 2015 and signed with Arizona

Aiken became quite the rarity; the first #1 overall baseball pick to fail to sign in 30  years.    But his lack of signing cascaded and cost the Astros both their 5th rounder Nix and another player later on thanks to the new draft rules on bonus pools; Nix ended up being declared a FA in a face-saving move by MLB so as not to admit that their new bonus cap circumvention rules were BS.  Aiken had no where to go but down from 1-1 so he obviously cost himself money.  The others all fell, if only slightly in Suarez’s case.

Verdict: 1 didn’t count, 5 lowered draft stock

2013: 8 failed to sign

• Phil Bickford: 1/10 RHP California HS. Toronto failed to sign. went to Southern Nevada juco, drafted 1/18 by SF and signed.
• Matt Krook 1s/35 LHP calif HS. Miami failed to sign, went to Oregon State, drafted 4th round by SF in 2016
• Ben DeLuzio 3rd/80 SS from Fla HS. Miami failed to sign. Went to Florida State, played 4 years … undrafted out of college, NDFA with Arizona
• Ben Holmes, 5th /151 LHP Oregon State. Philly failed to sign. went 9th round in 2014
• Jason Monda 6th/181 OF Washington State. Philly failed to sign … then accused him of NCAA violations. he wasn’t drafted again and quit to go to Med school
• Stephen Woods 6th/188 RHP NY HS: Tampa failed to sign, went to Suny-Albany, drafted 8th round 2016 by SF and signed
• Dustin DeMuth 8th/230 3B from Indiana, Minnesota failed to sign, became 5th rounder in 2014 and signed with Milwaukee
• Ross Kivett 10th/291 2B from kansas State. Cleveland failed to sign, became 6th rounder in 2014 and signed with Detroit

Bickford fell 8 slots year over  year but still fell.   DeMuth and Kivett both improved their stock.  The rest fell, drastically in some cases.

Verdict: 2 improved, 6 fell

2012: 8 failed to sign

• Mark Appel 1/8 RHP Stanford by Pittsburgh. failed to sign, was 1/1 in 2013 with Houston
• Teddy Stankiewicz 2/75 RHP from Texas Hs. failed to sign with Mets, went Juco, 2/45 in 2013 by Boston
• Alec Rash, 2/95 by Philadelphia from IA HS. went to Missouri, 2015 drafted in 23rd round by Washington but still didn’t sign; quit baseball and started playing NCAA basketball
• Kyle Twomey, 3/106 LHP Calif HS Oakland. Drafted 13th round 3 yrs later out of USC by Chicago Cubs.
• Brandon Thomas 4/136 OF from Ga Tech; didn’t sign with Pittsburgh, drafted 8th round one year later and signed with NYY
• Colin Poche 5/162 LHP texas h s. failed to sign with Baltimore, went to Dallas Baptist, undrafted Jr year, drafted 14th round 2016 by Arizona
• Nick Halamandaris 8/251 1B Calif HS. failed to sign with Seattle, played 4 years at cal, undrafted jr and Sr year, NDFA with Seattle, played one season
• L.J. Mazzilli 9/280 2B from UConn. 4th rounder in 2013 signed with NY Mets

Appel managed to improve from 8th overall to 1st overall.  Stankiewicz also improved his stock about a round’s worth.  Mazzilli improved from a 9th rounder to a 4th rounder.  The others all fell.

Verdict: 3 up, 5 down.

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Summary: of the 37 players who failed to sign:

• 7 too early to tell yet (7 hs, 0 coll)
• 22 hurt their draft stock by failing to sign (12 HS, 10 coll)
• 7 improved their draft stock.  (1 HS, 6 coll).  Of those who improved:
  • Two improved one round (1 HS, 1 coll) HS kid was Brady Singer
  • Two improved slightly within the same round (2 coll): Mark Appel, Stankiewicz
  • One went from 8th round to 5th round (1 coll)
  • One went from 10th round to 6th round (1 coll)
  • One went from a 9th rounder to a 4th rounder. (1 coll)
• 1 didn’t really count b/c of the Houston 2014 draft bonus shenanigans (Jacob Nix, HS)

So there you have it.  7 of 37 turned down money and look like they slightly made out (19%).   22/37 (60%) did not … and in some cases clearly cost themselves millions of dollars.  And even those 7 who did improve their ranking … not one of them in my opinion drastically improved their stock by going to college.  In fact, you can make the argument that getting drafted in the 8th round in one year, playing another year in college and then going in the 5th round probably *hurts* a player’s pro prospects because now he’s a year older versus his peers and has lost a year of pro development time.  A 22 yr old college senior draftee is already “old for the level” until he gets to at least Low-A, which is no guarantee even in his second pro year.

Now, has it ever worked out for a player to turn down significant 1st round money?  Yeah a couple times; Mark Appel gambled and improved his stock just before the new CBA took hold; in fact he managed to go 1-1 despite being a college senior with zero leverage.  Garrett Cole also made out by going to school.  So did a few others in the pre-2012 CBA eras.   But its a rarity; I’ve got another post that goes over these and some of the biggest nightmares for a later date.

Food for thought.

July 6th came and went, and the Nats signed their #1 overall pick without too much fanfare, giving Mason Denaburg a nice bump over his slot value and wrapping up the 2018 Draft Class.

Here’s a table of the 29 players we successfully signed, with known bonus amounts.  The MLBpipeline Draft Tracker is the most up-to-date resource for this data now that Baseball America has taken most of its stuff behind a paywall.

Round+JA7:J38	Overall	Name	Position	Col/HS	College or Cmtm	State	Signed?	Bonus Amt	Slot Value
1	27	Denaburg, Mason	RHP (Str)	HS	Florida	FL	Yes	3000000	2472700
2	65	Cate, Tim	LHP (Str)	Coll Jr	Uconn	CT	Yes	986200	986200
3	101	Schaller, Reid	RHP (Rel)	Coll So	Vanderbilt	TN	Yes	555100	555100
4	131	Irvin, Jake	RHP (Str)	Coll Jr	Oklahoma	OK	Yes	550000	414500
5	161	Canning, Gage	OF	Coll Jr	Arizona State	AZ	Yes	308900	308900
6	191	Karp, Andrew	RHP (Str)	Coll Sr	Florida State	FL	Yes	200000	239600
7	221	Day, Chandler	RHP (Rel)	Coll Jr	Vanderbilt	TN	Yes	188300	188300
8	251	Cropley, Tyler	C	Coll Sr	Iowa	IA	Yes	10000	157200
9	281	Driskill, Tanner	RHP (Str)	Coll Sr	Lamar	TX	Yes	10000	144400
10	311	Shaddy, Carson	2B	Coll Sr	Arkansas	AR	Yes	10000	136900
11	341	Bartow, Frankie	RHP (Rel)	Coll Jr	Miami	FL	Yes	125000
13	401	Wilson, Cody	OF (Corner)	Coll Jr	Florida Atlantic U	FL	Yes	125000
14	431	Fletcher, Aaron	LHP (Str)	Coll Jr	Houston	TX	Yes	125000
15	461	Lee, Evan	LHP (rel)/OF	Coll So	Arkansas	AR	Yes	125000
16	491	Teel, Carson	LHP (Str)	Coll Jr	Oklahoma State	OK	Yes	125000
18	551	Rhinesmith, Jacob	OF (CF)	Coll Jr	Western Kentucky	KY	Yes	125000
20	611	Vega, Onix	C	JC J1	Broward College	FL	Yes	125000
21	641	Tapani, Ryan	RHP (Str)	Coll Sr	Creighton	NB	Yes	10000
22	671	Daily, Cole	SS	Coll Jr	Notre Dame	IN	Yes
24	731	Marinconz, Kyle	SS	Coll Jr	Cal Poly San Luis Obispo	CA	Yes	60000
25	761	Vann, Chris	LHP (Str)	Coll Sr	Mercer	GA	Yes	3000
26	791	Morse, Colin	RHP (Str)	Coll Sr	Shenandoah	VA	Yes	3000
27	821	O'Connor, Pablo	2B	Coll Sr	Azusa Pacific University	CA	Yes
28	851	Chisolm, Blake	1B	Coll Sr	Sam Houston State	TX	Yes
29	881	Pogue, Colton	SS	Coll Sr	Pittsburg State U	KS	Yes
30	911	Vickers, Trey	SS	Coll Sr	Wichita State	KS	Yes
31	941	Quintana, Jonathan	OF	Coll Sr	Barry U	FL	Yes	3000
32	971	Maley, Alec	RHP (Str)	Coll Sr	Kentucky	KY	Yes	3000
38	1151	Milacki, Bobby	RHP	Coll Jr	Arizona Christian U	AZ	Yes	25000

Summary of the 29 drafted players:

• One High Schooler, 13 College Seniors
• 16 Arms (including Evan Lee) and 13 Bats
• Of the 16 arms, 4 were relievers in College and are (presumably) already routed to that role in the pros.
• Thus, 15 College players with eligibility remaining
• As of this writing, two guys have already been double promoted to Hagerstown; 11th rounder Frankie Bartow, UMiami’s closer this past season, and 5th rounder Cage Ganning, OF from UCLA.
• I count $6,800,500 in total bonus money paid out, more than their bonus pool figure of $5,603,800 and a bit more than their 5% cushion figure above the bonus pool figure of $5,883,990
• A few of the lower level bonus figures have yet to be disclosed; i could see Cole Daily getting a $125k bonus or near to it since he got bought out of his senior year, but the rest of the players w/o known bonuses were College Seniors who probably each got the same $3,000 bonus that other College Seniors got in rounds 20 and up.
• As of this writing, 2 have yet to be assigned, 15 went to the GCL, 9 went straight to Auburn, and 3 played a week or so in the GCL before getting to Auburn.

Verdict on this class overall: I like the fact that they threw out a ton of max $125k bonuses in the rounds 11-20; that certainly wasn’t the case last  year and it may have bought them some good players.  I’m ok with Denaburg as their 1st rounder and wasn’t as hung up on picking a more “famous” name at that point in the draft.  Unlike in 2017, I liked who they got in the rounds 3-6 area, and I think they may have a real player in 10th round senior sign Carson Shaddy.    In the rounds 11-20 they got a number of weekend starters from good schools to sign for the $125k figure, one of which has already forced his way to be twice-promoted.  Of course, when nearly half your draft dollars go to one kid, and that kid is a high schooler who probably is playing in our minor leagues for the next 5 years … its going to be quite a while til we really know if this was a winning class or not.

 

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Here’s a table of the 11 guys who did not sign:

Round+JA7:J38	Overall	Name	Position	Col/HS	College or Cmtm	State	Signed?
12	371	Lawson, Graham	RHP (Rel)	Coll Jr	South Carolina	SC	Won't
17	521	Chapman, Ridge	RHP (Str)	Coll Jr	South Carolina	SC	Won't
19	581	Linginfelter, Zach	RHP (rel)	Coll So	Tennessee	TN	Didn't
23	701	Hamilton, Cole	C	JC J1	Linn Benton CC	OR	Won't
33	1001	Haney, Jack	C	HS	Cedartown HS	GA	Didn't
34	1031	Baca, Tyler	OF	HS	The Linfield School (CA)	CA	Didn't
35	1061	Binelas, Alex	1B	HS	Oak Creek HS (WI)	WI	Won't
36	1091	Blessie, Bo	RHP	HS	Robert E Lee HS (TX)	TX	Won't
37	1121	Wilcox, Cole	RHP	HS	Heritage HS (GA)	GA	Won't
39	1181	Nardi, Andrew	LHP	JC J2	Moorpark Col (CA)	CA	Didn't
40	1211	Menhart, Michael	RHP	HS	Richmond Hill HS	GA	Didn't

Quick Summary here:

• The big misses here of course are the 12th and 17th rounders from South Carolina, both of whom announced on twitter within a few minutes of each other of their intent to return to school.
• 19th rounder Zach Linginfelter was a draft-eligible Sophomore from Tennessee who made it into their weekend rotation late in the season and had the easy decision to return to school, where he probably is a weekend starter all next year and could easily find his way into the top 10 rounds.
• 6 of the 11 non-signees were 30th+ round prep players who were never going to sign … either because they were 1st round rumored kids with million dollar price tags or because they were legacy picks
• 2 of the non-signees are Juco guys who were a little hard to find info on: Cole Hamilton and Andrew Nardi.  Nardi seems to have a committment to go to Arizona; can’t blame him for heading to a good program.  Hamilton doesn’t even have a perfectgame.org profile and too common of a name to research on twitter.

No major misses; highest non-signed player was a 12th rounder.

I’ve certainly been among those making excuses for this team, and for players on the team, for a while now.   These points are true:

• They are better than their pythagorean record; by runs scored versus runs against, they should be 45-39, in 2nd place ahead of the luckier Phillies but still 5 games back of the surprising Braves.
• They’ve been incredibly unlucky in one run and extra inning games.  This is a direct input to the pythag record; they’re 8-16 in one run games and 2-4 in extra innings.  Both the teams ahead of them in the NL east have wildly better one-run records (13-6 and 18-7 respectively)
• They’ve been just slaughtered with injury, at various times this year leading the NL in total players on the D/L and total man-games lost.
• They’ve experienced a complete gutting of last year’s middle of the order, with Ryan Zimmerman disappearing for weeks on end with little-to-no idea when he’d come back, Daniel Murphy taking nearly half a season to recover from his surprise off-season knee injury, and Bryce Harper putting up one of his worst seasons … clearly pressing, expanding his zone and being amazingly unlucky in terms of BABIP thus far this season.

To add insult to injury, #2 starter Stephen Strasburg threw his annual arm injury into play early this year, our mid-rotation guys have struggled, and our #5 starters keep going down with injury.

What else is true?  This is a team that’s kinda old; average age 29.1 (which is only 10th), but which is helped greatly by the presence of youngest-guy-in-the-league Juan Soto.  And Old teams get hurt, a lot.  Meanwhile  young teams (like Atlanta at 5th youngest and Philly who are the absolute youngest teams) don’t get hurt a lot.

This season is starting to remind me of a couple of past seasons:

• 2012, when the Nats were significantly improved from 2011 and took the league by storm, frankly, a year before they thought they would.  To me, this is the 2018 Braves.   The Braves only won 72 games last year; now they’re on a pace to win 94 games.  That’s a massive difference year over year and they’re doing it with almost  no off-season moves; all internal.
• 2015, when the Nats themselves showed similar season-long malaise and only came to life at the end of the season when it was too late and all they managed to do was cost themselves draft position the next year.

So what now?  They just finished a relatively brutal section of the schedule, playing a ton of AL East teams.  AL teams are bad match-ups for any NL team thanks to the DH’s impact on roster construction … even if they’re playing a crummy AL team like Tampa or Baltimore.  But to face off against the likes of Boston and New York, who are juggernauts, with a sputtering offense and missing a couple of key arms … well its no surprise to me they got swept.

The next 3 weeks will be the season.  They have 3 series against poor teams where they should be able to go 8-3 or 9-2 if they’re a legit team.  The should get at least one arm back in Hellickson and maybe Fedde can be replaced like for like with the surprising Jefry Rodriguez until Strasburg shows back up.   Then we have to hope for a post-all star game bump and take it to Atlanta in the first season post ASG to make up some ground.

Now, what does this team have going for it?

• Harper just cannot continue to hit this badly; at some point he should have a solid month.
• This team was dominant in May; it can play .600 ball when it needs to
• Strasburg returns likely after the ASG
• The Nats have one of the easiest remaining schedules in baseball; slightly easer than Philly and significantly easier than Atlanta.   The Nats have no more interleague games either.
• Furthermore, the Nats have already done all their West Coast trips; their worst remaining road trip is to Colorado the last series of the season.   Both their NL East competitors still have big west coast trips to make.

So the big question is this: can this team get it together a little now, a little in August and put themselves in a position to take back the division?   If they scuffle and go just .500 between now and the ASG … then no way.

 

 

Here’s a recap of our CWS coverage so far for 2018:

• Field of 64 announcement with Regional predictions and highlights of top-end draft prospects.
• 2018 Draft Preview with coverage of Local College-age eligible players of note
• 2018 CWS tournament: Regional Results, Super-Regional Pairings
• 2018 CWS Super-Regionals recap, CWS field and predictions
• 2018 CWS Group Winners and CWS Final preview

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Here’s how the finals played out.

For Reference: Arkansas Stats and Oregon State Stats.

• Game 1 6/26/18: Arkansas got to Oregon State #1 Luke Heimlich in the 5th, got him for 4 runs and made them stick.
• Game 2 6/27/18: Oregon State scored 3 in the ninth to steal the title away and force the decider.
• Game 3 6/28/18: OSU got a stellar game (a 2-hit shutout) from freshman starter Kevin Abel and ran away with the game 5-0.

Your 2018 College World Series Champion: Oregon State

Commentary: Rains moved the entire slate forward one day, which drastically helped Oregon State’s fatigued rotation/bullpen.  Arkansas had Oregon State down to their last strike in game 2 and let a foul pop drop between three defenders before giving away the game.  This seemed to deflate Arkansas and energize OSU, who turned the decider into a no-contest.

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This concludes the College Baseball season and our coverage of it for 2018.  I’ll post one more post that covers draftees and signing status for all local-connected players (prep and college).  I don’t really cover the summer collegiate wood bat leagues: for that I’d suggest NovaBaseball.com, which is really coming into its own in terms of local coverage for all players with local ties.

 

 

 

College CWS tournament references

• d1baseball.com’s daily scoreboard is my go-to link
• d1baseball’s Tourney Central
• Baseball America’s College coverage home page
• CollegeBaseballDaily.com has coverage as well.
• CollegeBaseballCentral.com has coverage as well.
• Ncaa.com’s interactive full 64-team bracket
• NCAA Individual player stats
• Warren Nolan.com’s College Baseball RPI
• Warren Nolan’s Conference RPI rankings

Here’s a recap of our CWS coverage so far for 2018:

• Field of 64 announcement with Regional predictions and highlights of top-end draft prospects.
• 2018 Draft Preview with coverage of Local College-age eligible players of note
• 2018 CWS tournament: Regional Results, Super-Regional Pairings
• 2018 CWS Super-Regionals recap, CWS field and predictions

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Lets review the CWS group play.  The CWS plays just one or two games a day; a far cry from the first weekend, where 64 teams played hundreds of games over the course of a long weekend.  So this post has been written in one or two sentence increments for a week and a half…

My pre-CWS predictions were #1 Florida from the top and #3 Oregon State from the bottom, but noting that Arkansas and Mississippi State in particular were going to be tough outs.

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In the Top Bracket (#1 Florida, #9 Texas Tech, #5 Arkansas, #13 Texas)

• In the opening games Arkansas put up 8 in the 6th to easily down Texas 11-5.  Madison HS’ Andy McGuire was called upon for mop-up duty by Texas.  In the nightcap, Texas Tech got to Florida ace Brady Singer and downed the #1 seed 6-3.
• In the first elimination game, #1 Florida whacked Texas 6-1 behind 1st round pick Jackson Kowar to eliminate Texas.
• In the winner’s bracket game, #5 Arkansas scored early and often and was in control throughout over Texas Tech.
• In the play-in game to the group final, Florida got some revenge and eliminated Texas Tech to force their way into the group final.
• In the group final, Arkansas got a dominant start from #3 starter Isaiah Campbell, who shut down Florida and got Arkansas to their first CWS final since 1979.

Final Group standings: Arkansas, Florida, Texas Tech, Texas

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In the Bottom Bracket (#3 Oregon State, #6 UNC, Mississippi State, Washington)

• In the opening games, UNC got to OSU’s stud Luke Heimlich for 6 runs early, then the game turned into a slow slog eventually won by UNC.  In the night cap, Mississippi State got a walk-off RBI single to squeak by Washington 1-0.
• In the first elimination game, Oregon State blasted Pac-12 rival Washington 14-5 to make them the first team eliminated.
• In the winner’s bracket game, Mississippi State destroyed UNC 12-2 to continue its amazing late-season run and put themselves in the driver’s seat of this bracket.
• In the play-in game to the group final, Oregon State scored 8 runs in the last two innings to get revenge and eliminate UNC 11-6.
• In the group final, Oregon State destroyed Mississippi State 12-2 to force the decider.  There, Oregon State took advantage of some iffy coaching to score 5 two-out runs early and made it stick to advance.

Final Group standings: Oregon State, Mississippi State, UNC, Washington

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CWS finals discussion: Games 1,2,3 set for June 25th-27th.

Pitching Match-ups:

• Game 1: Monday 6/25/18: Arkansas’s #1 Blaine Knight on 8 days rest vs Oregon State’s #1 Luke Heimlich on 4 days rest
• Game 2: Tuesday 6/26/18: Arkansas #2 Kacey Murphy on 5 days rest vs Oregon State’s #2 Bryce Fehmel on 4 days rest
• Game 3: Wednesday 6/27/18: Arkansas #3 Isaiah Campbell on 4 days rest vs Oregon State’s #3 freshman Kevin Abel on 3 days rest (if necessary)

Advantage Arkansas here; their rotation is rested and has been successful in the CWS.  Oregon State cannot say the same:  Heimlich has gotten knocked out early in both his CWS starts and Fehmel didn’t get out of the 4th in his most recent start.  Abel was fantastic against Mississippi State in the decider …. but even if they get to him he’ll be on just 3 days rest and may not even be available.

Prediction: Arkansas in 3.

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College CWS tournament references

• d1baseball.com’s daily scoreboard is my go-to link
• d1baseball’s Tourney Central
• Baseball America’s College coverage home page
• CollegeBaseballDaily.com has coverage as well.
• CollegeBaseballCentral.com has coverage as well.
• Ncaa.com’s interactive full 64-team bracket
• NCAA Individual player stats
• Warren Nolan.com’s College Baseball RPI
• Warren Nolan’s Conference RPI rankings

(Just realized I forgot to post this earlier this week!  CWS started yesterday; this is a recap of the super regionals with predictions and key names to watch in the CWS).

Here’s a recap of our CWS coverage so far for 2018:

• Field of 64 announcement with Regional predictions and highlights of top-end draft prospects.
• 2018 Draft Preview with coverage of Local College-age eligible players of note
• 2018 CWS tournament: Regional Results, Super-Regional Pairings

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CWS Super Regionals were played this past weekend.

Super Regional Recaps:  I’ve got these ordered by they way they’ll be playing into the CWS field (i.e. by bracket, with former Natioanl seeds 1,8,5,4 in the top and 6,3,7,2 in the bottom).  And this is the order they’re listed on d1baseball’s Tourney Central, the quickest way to find results.

• #1 Florida vs Auburn: Brady Singer overcame a leg injury in the first to throw a quality start while his offense spoiled Casey Mize‘s likely final collegiate start to get Game 1.  In game 2, Auburn could do nothing with Jackson Kowar, but got two runs late including a walk-off in the 9th to force a decided against Florida’s closer.   The two teams played a classic 3rd game, with Florida eventually advancing on a walk-off homer in the 11th to advance to Omaha for the fourth year in a row.
• Duke vs #9 Texas Tech:  Texas Tech got the first game 6-4.   Duke pounded them 11-2 to force the decider.  There, Texas Tech won 6-2 to advance.
• #5 Arkansas vs South Carolina: Arkansas showed why they’re a tough out, with their offense lighting up in a game one win 9-3.  Nats 10th rounder Carson Shaddy was a huge factor here, hitting a bases-clearing double in the 7th to break open the game.  In game 2, South Carolina got a solid start from Reservoir HS grad Cody Morris to force the deciding 3rd game (Note: Shaddy again had a solid game for Arkansas, and our 15th rounder Evan Lee got into the game as a match-up lefty for one batter).  In the decider, Arkansas jumped on South Carolina early and cruised 14-4 to earn a trip to Omaha.  Shaddy had another huge game with 3 RBIs.
• Tennessee Tech vs #13 Texas: Tennessee Tech upset Texas 5-4 in the opener.  Texas won game two 4-2 to force a deciding third game.  There, Texas took the series against pesky Tennessee Tech to advance.
• #3 Oregon State vs #14 Minnesota: OSU continued their dominant post-season by beating Minnesota 8-1 in the first game behind nearly a CG from OSU ace and lightening rod Luke Heimlich.  They had to work a bit harder in game 2, but Oregon State still advanced to their 2nd straight CWS 6-3.
• #6 UNC vs #11 Stetson: UNC got to Stetson 1st rounder Logan Gilbert, putting 4 runs on him in 5 innings and holding on for the game 1 victory.  UNC made quick work of Stetson in Game 2 to advance to the CWS.
• Mississippi State vs Vanderbilt: In a game dominated by poor pitching and errors, Mississippi State’s junior undrafted outfielder Elijah Macnamee hit a walk-off 2-run homer to take game one.  Vanderbilt scored 3 runs late, including a walk-off homer in the 9th, to take game 2; our two Vandy picks Reid Schaller and Chandler Day got the hold and the win by pitching the 8th and 9th in this game.  Mississippi State took game 3, getting a couple runs off of Day’s long-relief effort but exploding for four runs in the 11th to advance.
• Cal State Fullerton vs Washington: UWash got to CSF starter Colton Eastman in the 7th, and put enough runs on the board to make the lead stick in game 1.  Fullerton got revenge in game two 5-2 and forced the decider.  There though, Washington won in extra innings to advance to their first ever CWS.

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My CWS Predictions: Florida, Texas Tech, Arkansas, Texas on one side, Oregon State, Stetson, Vanderbilt, Cal-State Fullerton on the other.

Actuals: Florida, Texas Tech, Arkansas, Texas on the top, Oregon State, UNC, Mississippi State, Washington on the bottom.

I got the whole upper bracket right, whiffed on most of the lower bracket.

 

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CWS Field and Profiles

Top Bracket:

• #1 Florida: 47-19 overall, 20-10 in the SEC.  1st place SEC-East regular season.
• #9 Texas Tech: 44-18 overall, 15-9 in Big-12.  3rd place Big-12 regular season.
• #5 Arkansas; 43-19 overall, 18-12 in the SEC.  2nd place SEC-West regular season.
• #13 Texas: 42-21 overall, 17-7 in Big-12.  1st place Big-12 regular season.

Bottom Bracket

• #3 Oregon State: 49-10-1, 20-9-1 in the Pac-12.   2nd place, Pac-12 regular season.
• #6 UNC: 43-18 overall, 22-8 in the ACC.  1st Place ACC-Coastal division regular season.
• Mississippi State; 37-27 overall, 15-15 in the SEC.  5th Place, SEC-West division regular season.
• Washington: 35-24 overall, 20-10 in the Pac-12

CWS field review by the numbers

• SEC: 3 teams
• Pac12: 2 team
• ACC: 1 teams
• Big12: 2 teams
• National top 8 Seeds: 3
• Regional Hosts (i.e. top 16 seeds): 6
• First time programs: 1 (Washington)

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CWS Field thoughts

An interesting field.   The entire bottom half of the tourney was decided before any of the upper half, as six of the eight super-regionals went the full 3 games.  At first glance, its easy to predict the two best teams here (Florida and Oregon State).  But its hard to not see what Mississippi State has done lately.  They finished 15-15 in SEC play … but that included them sweeping both Arkansas and Florida late just to get their league record up to .500.  They’re incredibly hot, just flipped the script on Vanderbilt, and is not a team i’d want to mess with right now.  The upper bracket has more seeds, but the lower bracket might be a tougher road for the favorite Oregon State.

Florida beat Arkansas 2 of 3 in their season series, but it was in Florida.  On a neutral field its hard to say who might win.  In the bottom , Oregon State will open with conference rival Washington, who they took 2 of 3 against (again at home).   Its hard to see a Texas-Texas Tech rematch but if they do meet, Texas took 2/3 on Texas Tech’s field and should be slightly favored on a neutral field.

Quick predictions:

Final: Oregon State over Florida.

Player Star power in this CWS: By team, here’s the top-end draft talents

• Florida features top picks Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, Jonathan India. 
• Texas Tech’s top pick was a Supplemental 2nd rounder Grant Little.
• Arkansas had three upper round picks: 3rd rounder Blaine Knight, 4th rounder Eric Cole and 5th round C Grant Koch.
• Texas’ highest draft pick is the son of Roger Clemens, Kody Clemens, drafted in the 3rd round.  Also features role player Andy McGuire, from Madison HS in Vienna, drafted in the 28th round.
• Oregon State features Nick Madrigal (#4 overall), plus 1st-day picks Trevor Larnach and Cayden Grenier, as well as the controversial 1st round talent Luke Heimlich.
• UNC had just one top 10 round pick, RHP 6th rounder Rodney Hutchinson.
• Mississippi State’s ace Konner Plikington slipped to the 3rd round.
• Washington had and 8th rounder A.J. Graffiano and a 9th rounder Willie MacIver.

Nats 2018 Draftees in the CWS: thanks to the Nats strategy of drafting only College players, they drafted a ton of guys who are playing in Omaha.  By team:

• #5 Arkansas features 10th rounder Carson Shaddy, the Arkansas starting 2B as well as our 15th rounder Evan Lee, a role-player on the team this year.  Shaddy had a massive super-Regional at the plate and will look to continue in the CWS.

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College CWS tournament references:

• d1baseball.com’s daily scoreboard is my go-to link
• d1baseball’s Tourney Central
• Baseball America’s College coverage home page
• CollegeBaseballDaily.com has coverage as well.
• CollegeBaseballCentral.com has coverage as well.
• Ncaa.com’s interactive full 64-team bracket
• NCAA Individual player stats
• Warren Nolan.com’s College Baseball RPI
• Warren Nolan’s Conference RPI rankings

Here’s a review of MLB Draftees in 2018 with Local ties.  By Local, I mean any player that either went to high school or college anywhere in DC, MD or VA.

We posted earlier about all the marquee names in the area who may get draft notice;  almost all of them went undrafted  this year and so lots of colleges are getting VA and MD based kids heading to school.

Its clear to me that several clubs in particular had strong area scouts in the Virginia area;

• Chicago Cubs: the Cubs took four Virginia-tied players in the top 10 picks and a fifth later on.
• Cleveland: they took three locally-tied players in the first 11 rounds
• New York Yankees: took four locally-tied players in this draft, three between the 8th and 13th rounds.
• Cincinnati took two VA-college players in the top 10 rounds (both likely senior sign/money savers)
• Arizona took three VA-tied players, including a flier on Zach Hess in the later rounds after he so precipitously fell.

There are several high schoolers in the DC/MD/VA area with commits to major colleges who went completely un-drafted, surprising me.  Stephen Pelli (UNC commit), Cade Huntgate (Florida State), Will Schroeder (also UNC), Kody Milton (UMD), Tyler Casagrande (Vanderbilt), Jacob Steinberg (Miami), and Ryan Archibald (Arizona).   This list includes both the Virginia and Maryland Gatorade players of the year for 2018, normally guys who are getting significant draft attention.

Its kind of a down year for prep players in the area.  We didn’t see a DC/MD/VA prep player even picked until the 18th round, and then  just a handful of others with throw-away mid-30th round picks.

Here’s a full table of all locally tied kids drafted this year.

Round	Overall	DC Local	State	Drafting Team	Player	Position	Col/HS	HS	College (or Commit)
1	34	No	VA	Kansas City	Lynch, Daniel	LHP	4YR JR	Freeman (Richmond)	UVA
1-supp	39	No	VA	Arizona	McCarthy, Jake	OF	4YR JR	Scranton HS (Scranton PA)	UVA
1-supp	43	No	VA	St. Louis	Roberts, Griffin	RHP	4YR JR	James River HS (Midlothian)	Wake Forest
3	103	No	MD	Cleveland	Palacios, Richard	SS	4YR JR	Brooklyn NY	Towson
5	158	No	VA	Chicago Cubs	Weber, Andy	2B	4YR JR	Auburn, OH	UVA
5	154	No	MD	St. Louis	Dunn, Nick	2B	4YR JR	Sunbury PA	UMD
7	218	No	VA	Chicago Cubs	Artis, D.J.	CF	4YR JR	Greensboro NC	Liberty
7	223	Yes	MD	Cleveland	Morris, Cody	RHP	4YR JR	Reservoir HS (Columbia)	South Carolina
7	214	No	VA	Minnesota	Winder, Josh	RHP	4YR JR	James River HS (Midlothian)	VMI
8	248	Yes	VA	Chicago Cubs	Mort, Zach	RHP	4YR JR	Cosby HS (Chesterfield)	George Mason
8	247	Yes	VA	New York Yankees	Van Hoose, Connor	RHP	4YR SR	Gonzaga HS (via Alexandria)	Bucknell
9	278	No	VA	Chicago Cubs	Casey, Derek	RHP	4YR SR	Hanover HS (Richmond)	UVA
9	259	No	VA	Cincinnati	McDonald, Andrew	RHP	4YR JR	Cincinnati, OH	Virginia Tech
10	292	No	VA	Arizona	Langhorne, Brett	3B	4YR SR	Lee-Davis HS, Mechanicsville	Carson-Newman College
10	288	No	VA	Cincinnati	Sousa, Bennett	LHP	4YR SR	North Palm Beach, FL	UVA
11	344	Yes	VA	Cleveland	DeGroat, Jack	RHP	4YR JR	Loudoun Valley HS	Liberty
12	367	No	VA	New York Yankees	Pita, Matt	OF	4YR JR	Cosby HS (Chesterfield)	VMI
13	397	Yes	MD	New York Yankees	Pasteur, Isaiah	RHP	4YR SR	Winters Mill HS, Westminster MD	Georgetown
15	449	No	VA	Texas	Simmons, Cameron	RF	4YR JR	Royersford, PA	UVA
16	473	Yes	VA	Oakland	Nightengale, Bryce	RHP	4YR JR	Allegany HS, Cumberland, MD	George Mason
16	474	No	VA	Pittsburgh	Selby, Colin	RHP	4YR JR	Western Branch HS, Chesapeake VA	Randolph-Macon
18	535	No	MD	Baltimore	Zebron, Jake	RHP	HS	Colonial Richardson HS, Federalsburg	NC State (commit)
19	564	Yes	DC	Pittsburgh	Kobos, Will	RHP	4YR JR	Charlotte, NC	George Washington
20	586	Yes	VA	San Francisco	Manning, Jeff	SS	4YR JR	Battlefield HS, Haymarket	Alabama
20	596	No	VA	Toronto	Kapra, Vinny	SS	4YR SR	Melbourne, FL	Richmond
21	632	No	VA	Kansas City	Eaton, Nathan	CF	4YR SO	Thomas Dale HS (Richmond)	VMI
21	644	No	VA	Los Angeles Dodgers	Todd, Tre	CF	4YR JR	New Jersey	Liberty
22	672	No	MD	Houston	Costes, Marty	OF	4YR JR	Archbishop Curley (Baltimore)	UMD
23	698	No	VA	Chicago Cubs	Taylor, Hunter	CF	4YR SR	Nandua HS (DelMarVA peninsula)	South Carolina
25	756	Yes	DC	Colorado	Metz, Robert	2B	4YR 5S	Poolesville	George Washington
26	783	No	VA	St. Louis	Coward, Connor	RHP	4YR JR	Pittsburgh, PA	Virginia Tech
26	813	Yes	VA	Washington	Morse, Colin	RHP (Str)	4YR SR	McLean HS, McLean VA	Shenandoah
28	836	Yes	VA	Toronto	McGuire, Andy	1B	4YR JR	Madison HS, Vienna	Texas
29	877	No	VA	New York Yankees	Bertsch, Jackson	LHP	4YR 5S	?	Liberty
30	906	No	VA	Colorado	Harlow, Colton	LHP	4YR SR	?	JMU
32	955	No	MD	Baltimore	Sandridge, Jayvien	LHP	HS	Mercersburg Academy (Hagerstown)	UCF (commit)
34	1012	No	VA	Arizona	Hess, Zack	RHP (Str)	4YR SO	Liberty Christian Academy (Lynchburg)	LSU
35	1045	Yes	VA	Baltimore	Grammes, Conor	RHP	4YR SO	McLean HS, McLean VA	Xavier
35	1038	Yes	VA	Chicago White Sox	Morgan, Jason	RHP	4YR SR	Chancellor HS (Fredericksburg)	UNC
35	1037	No	VA	Philadelphia	Ross, Austin	RHP (Str)	4YR 5S	?	Radford
38	1130	No	VA	New York Mets	Zona, Nick	SS	HS SR	Hanover HS (Richmond)	JMU (commit)
39	1172	No	VA	Kansas City	Hackenberg, Adam	C	HS SR	Miller School of Albemarle (VA)	Clemson (commit)
40	1205	No	VA	Milwaukee	Clarke, Wes	C	HS SR	Liberty Christian Academy (Lynchburg)	South Carolina (commit)

Welcome to my DC Area Prep Baseball Tourney coverage for 2018.

Here’s the rough schedule of posting and what we’ll cover:

• #1: DC/MD/VA District High School Tournament Report: post-season kickoff .  Covers: MD regionals, VA district brackets, Private school tourney updates.  Usually publishes the week before Memorial day tournament finals.
• #2: Maryland State Champs, Virginia District and Regional Champs crowned.   Covers: MD state finals, VA regionals tourneys, DC playoff results.  Usually publishes after the Memorial Day weekend tournaments finish up.
• #3: Virginia State Champions crowned (this post).  Covers: VA state tourneys, recaps MD, DC, Private School results.  Publishes mid-June once the Va state tourney wraps up.
• #4: My theoretical “All DC/MD/VA Dream tournament” pairings, once all the state champs are finalized.
• #5: Players of the Year/All-State lists and final rankings; publishes early July once all the all-state lists are published.

Lets see where we stand now with Virginia having completed their regional tournaments and setup state semi finals’ matchups.

All Virginia regional finals were played on 6/1/18, and all state tournaments finished up on 6/10/18.  Winners in all cases highlighted in bold red.

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Virginia State tourney match-ups and tourney locations

All the state tourneys ran from June 5th-10th at the various sites.  All state brackets available from this link at VHSL, and the regional brackets are here.

 

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Class 6 State Finals: Quarters on 6/5/18, Semis and Finals held at Deep Run HS in Richmond.

• Class 6 Region A: First Colonial winner, Western Branch runner-up.
• Class 6 Region B: Cosby winner, Thomas Dale runner-up.
• Class 6 Region C: West Springfield winner, Lake Braddock runner-up.
• Class 6 Region D: Battlefield winner, Chantilly runner-up

Class 6 State Quarters results:  Thomas Dale upset First Colonial 7-0, Western Branch upset Cosby 7-1 on a near no-hitter from Antonio Velazquez, West Springfield defeats Chantilly 4-2,  and Lake Braddock rallied late to upset Battlefield 6-5 in a battle of NoVa’s two top teams.

Class 6 State Semis Results: Western Branch defeats Thomas Dale 6-5 in extra innings.  West Springfield defeats Lake Braddock  6-2 for the 2nd time in a week to advance to the state title game.

Class 6 State Final: West Springfield blew open the game late to defeat the defending state champs 12-2 to take their first title since 2010.

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Class 5 State Finals: Quarters on 6/5/18, Semis held at Glen Allen HS, final at Deep Run  HS in Richmond.

• Class 5 Region A: Menchville winner, Maury runner-up.
• Class 5 Region B: Deep Run winner, Prince George runner-up.
• Class 5 Region C: Freedom-South Riding winner, Briar Woods runner-up.
• Class 5 Region D: Potomac winner, Halifax County runner-up

Class 5 State Quarters results: Prince George upsets Menchville 8-1,  Deep Run beat Maury 8-6, Freedom-SR beats Halifax County 5-4, Potomac defeats defending state champ Briar Woods 3-1.

Class 5 State Semis Results:  Potomac blanked Freedom-South Riding 7-0, and Prince George got revenge for last week’s regional final and ended Deep Run’s cinderella story 7-3.

Class 5 State Final: Prince George beats Potomac 8-0 behind a 1-hit shutout from Buck Forbes.

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Class 4 State Finals: Quarters on 6/5/18, Semis held at Kiwanis, final at Salem Memorial stadium in Salem (Roanoke).

• Class 4 Region A: Grafton winner, Jamestown runner-up
• Class 4 Region B: Dinwiddie winner, Powahatan runner-up.
• Class 4 Region C: Fauquier winner, Woodgrove runner-up.
• Class 4 Region D: Salem winner, Amherst County runner-up.

Class 4 State Quarters results:  Grafton defeats Powahatan 3-0, Jamestown upset Dinwiddie 7-3, Fauquier beat Amherst County 3-2 and Salem beat Woodgrove 7-2.

Class 4 State Semis Results: Jamestown got revenge against Grafton 10-8, and Salem downed Fauquier 8-3 behind a seven-run 6th inning.

Class 4 State Final: Salem walked-off against Jamestown to win their first state title 2-1.

 

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Smaller Classifications: 

3A Quarters on 6/5/18, Semis and Final at Salem Memorial stadium in Salem (Roanoke).

• Class 3 Region A: Hopewell winner, York runner-up
• Class 3 Region B: Brentsville winner, Spotsylvania runner-up.
• Class 3 Region C: Fluvanna County winner, Western Albemarle runner-up.
• Class 3 Region D: Abington winner, Northside runner-up.

Class 3 State Quarters results: Spotsylvania upset Hopewell 5-2, Brentsville beats York 4-1, Fluvana County beat Northside 5-1, and Abington downed Western Albemarle 6-3,

Class 3 State Semis Results: Spotsylvania gets regional revenge over Brentsville 8-6, and Abington gets by Fluvanna County 8-2.

Class 3 State Final: Spotsylvania and Abington had to go to extra innings, where Spotsylvania prevailed 13-8 after exploding for 5 runs in the 8th.

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2A and 1A brackets at VHSL site

• Class 2 State Quarter finalists: Maggie Walker (2016’s 2-A champ), Stuarts Draft, Tazewell, Appotomax County
• Class 2 State Semi finalists: Goochland, Chatham
• Class 2 State Final: Page County over Virginia High 5-4.
• Class 1 State Quarterfinalists:  West Point, Central-Lunenberg, Galax, Auburn (2017’s 1-A champion)
• Class 1 State Semi finalists: Northumberland, Patrick Henry-Glade Spring
• Class 1 State Final: Riverheads pounded Honaker 13-1 for the Class 1 State title.

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Recent Virginia HS champs:  Virginia has Class 1 through Class 6.  Before 2014, we just AAA, AA and A.

2017: See this post for 2017’s state tournament wrap-up for all 6 divisions

• In 6-A, Western Branch d Cox 6-4.  Oakton, Patriot semis.
• In 5-A, Briar Woods d Halifax 5-4 in 14 innings.  Menchville and Prince George semi-finalists.
• In 4-A, Liberty Christian Academy d Hanover 8-5.  Harrisonburg, Great Bridge semi-finalists.
• In the smaller classifications, Turner Ashby won 3-A, Dan River won 2-A and Auburn won 1-A.

2016: See this post for 2016’s state tournament wrap-up for all 6 divisions

• In 6-A, Chantilly d Battlefield 3-2.  Hylton & Cosby state semis.
• In 5-A, Nansemond River defeated Mountain View 5-3.  Potomac, Mills Godwin semi finalists.
• In 4-A, Hanover d Liberty Christian Academy 13-12.  Jamestown, Kettle Run semi finalists.
• In the smaller classifications, Rustberg repeated 3-A, Maggie Walker won in 2-A and Rappahannock won 1-A.

2015: See this post for 2015’s state tournament wrapup for all 6 divisions:

• In 6-A, Madison d Chantilly 6-5.  First Colonial & defending champ Western Branch were state semifinalists.
• In 5-A, Stone Bridge d Marshall 9-4.  2014 finalists Hickory & Freeman were state semifinalists.
• In 4-A, Glen Allen d Jefferson Forrest 9-3.  Fauquier & Hanover were state semifinalists.
• In the smaller classifications, Lafayette won 3-A, Virginia High repeated in 2-A and William Campbell won 1-A.

2014: see this post for 2014’s state tournament wrap up for all 6 divisions.

• In 6-A, Western Branch d Chantilly 6-4.  McLean and Cosby were state semifinalists.
• In 5-A, Hickory d Freeman 6-4.  Stone Bridge and the surprising Freedom-South Riding semi finalists.
• In 4-A, Hanover d Millbrook 7-1.
• In the smaller classifications, Loudoun Valley won 3-A, Virginia High won 2-A and Northumberland won 1-A.

2013: AAA: Hanover d Great Bridge. Hanover’s super-junior Derek Casey (committed to UVA) outlasts Great Bridge and their 1st round talent Connor Jones (now attending UVA after spurning a likely late 1st round draft position).  Lake Braddock and Oakton beaten in the semis.

2012: AAA: Lake Braddock d Kellam 4-0. Lake Braddock lost to West Springfield in the regional title game but then blitzed to a state championship.

2011: AAA: Great Bridge d South County in the state final, giving the powerful South County its first and only loss on the season after starting the season 28-0.  Lake Braddock was the regional finalist and lost to Great Bridge in the state quarters.

2010: AAA: West Springfield d Woodbridge in the final, giving Woodbridge its only loss on the year. WT Woodson regional finalist.

Complete history of Virginia HS Champions: from VHSL’s website.  Covers all sports and has results for a century.  Lots of fun to dig through.  Note: if this link fails, its because VHSL has moved it yet again; I have an updated copy of the history books in PDF format.

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That wraps up Virginia, the last local state to play its tourneys.

Well, we can’t really seem to go a season without a Stephen Strasburg injury … and this annual affair hit us over the weekend, with Strasburg looking ineffective, getting pulled, going for an MRI and quickly hitting the 10-day D/L with “right shoulder inflammation.”

This comes on the quick heels of two other SP issues for this team:

• miracle MLFA off-season signing Jeremy Hellickson yanking his hamstring and exiting precisely one batter into his friday start, also hitting the D/L.
• Off-season SP depth re-signing Edwin Jackson opting out of his minor league deal and departing the team (he signed with Oakland soon after).

So, it seemed like we could stand the absence of Hellickson thanks to the schedule over the next week and a half (plenty of off-days and no need for a 5th starter), and since his injury is listed as “mild” meaning he may only miss the minimum time … but with the loss of Strasburg we’ll need to reach into our depth.  So who’s getting the call?

(oh, btw on top of this, on 6/9/18 Brandon Knitzler strained his forearm and seems likely to be at least unavailable for a bit, if not on his way to the D/L too, so they’re needing reinforcements stat.  He was officially put on the D/L just after posting this on 6/10/18, resulting in both Trevor Gott and Wander Suero getting their tickets for a DC return…).

We’ve now seen all three of our non-active roster 40-man starters get MLB action this year … and they looked promising enough to have the loss of Jackson or even the presence of Tommy Milone in AAA seem like after-thoughts.  So who gets the call to cover for Strasburg?  Options:

1. Erick Fedde: got one spot-start this year and looked solid: he gave up 3 runs in 5 2/3rds but pitched a lot better than his stat line.  He hasn’t looked as great for Syracuse; a 4.76 ERA and a 1.48 whip showing how he’s giving up too many base-runners.  Do you believe what you saw in the majors, or look at his AAA line for the year?  His most recent start: in Gwinnet, 5 1/3, 2runs, 9Ks but 10hits allowed.
2. Austin Voth: has turned his career around, going from “next guy to get DFA’d” to a MLB call-up earlier this year (he did not appear).  His AAA ERA of 4.35 is a bit inflated; he’s giving up less than a hit/inning.  He had two bad outings in a row just after his call up/send-back, giving up 12 ER in 2 innings … but his last out ing (6/6/18) was stellar; 7IP, 4hits, 6Ks, 0 walks, 0 runs.  That’s the kind of stat line GMs like to see.
3. Jefry Rodriguez: he was thrown into action when Hellickson went down and did awesome: 4 2/3 scoreless innings in his MLB debut.  Can’t ask for more than that.  He’s been good for AA Harrisburg this year; 12 starts, 3.57ERA, a bit wild though (24 walks in 63 innings).  Its interesting that he’s gotten MLB time but has yet to get pushed to AAA; perhaps they’re waiting for the typical Nats mid-season shuffle.  His most recent outing?  6/9/18: 5ip, 1 hit and just 65 pitches thrown (a hint?  why would he have gotten  yanked so quickly?)

You have to think it’ll be Fedde first.  Maybe what they do is promote Fedde, move Rodriguez to AAA.  Then if you need a second starter … it seems like Rodriguez has jumped Voth in the pecking order and is next in line.

It isn’t a very opportune time for this sudden loss of their second ace; their next nine games are AL East interleague play … which will be tough games even though both Toronto and Baltimore are struggling.  After that they get 6 games versus Philly interspersed with five more AL East games (including three at home against Boston) … so this might be a pretty crucial stage for this team.  Lets hope our depth stands up.

For your weekend viewing, here’s a quick glance at the CWS Super Regional match-ups with the Nats draft picks still playing

Super Regional Nats Draftee list

Lots of top-end draft picks will be playing this weekend, just ahead of the MLB draft which starts on 6/12/17.  By Super Regional:

• #5 Arkansas vs South Carolina: 10th rounder Carson Shaddy, the Arkansas starting 2B as well as our 15th rounder Evan Lee, a role-player on the team this year.
• Mississippi State vs Vanderbilt: 3rd rounder Reid Schaller and 7th rounder Chandler Day, both working out of Vanderbilt’s rotation.

I’m favoring both Arkansas and Vanderbilt to win these series and continue to Omaha, not good news for these four guys in terms of getting them into a short-season squad.  Going to Omaha probably means we don’t see these guys until July.  At best case (a 2-and-out in Omaha) a player isn’t done playing until June 18th or so, while making the CWS finals extends their season until potentially June 27th.   You’d have to think these guys aren’t even thinking about meeting with the team to negotiate/sign deals until they’re done playing, then need a mental break/vacation before starting.  Heck, we didn’t even see some of our CWS-playing draft picks *play* for us last year (Cole Freeman, our 4th rounder, signed on July 7th after his college team LSU made the CWS finals … then debuted in Hagerstown in April of this  year).

Nonetheless; if you want to eyeball our new players, these are the games to watch.