Nationals Arm Race

So, on a calm before the storm Saturday afternoon the baseball world was shook by the news that the Nationals, officially, have Juan Soto on the trading block.

He rejected a 15yr/$440M deal, the third and (maybe?) last deal this ownership group plans on offering, and is now entertaining offers.

The team’s First offer to Soto of 13yrs/$330M was a joke for several reasons:

• he’s one of the best 4-5 players in the game
• it would have only taken him through his age 36 season
• It was more than $100M off of the superstar contracts of the game.
• Its AAV of 26.9 would have not even been top 20 in the game.

We don’t know what the second offer was, but the third would have guaranteed more total money than Trout (meaning it’d have been the largest contract in the history of the game), would have covered him until his age 38 season … but was still “only” $29.3M AAV, which is outside the top 20 all time. In that regard, yes believe it or not it was still “light.”

So, $440M is an awful lot of money. Maybe he’s dead set on setting both the overall and AAV value on a long term contract. 15yrs, $35M AAV to me is what I think he has to shoot for; that’s a $525M contract. Maybe he’s looking to wait (Scott Boras style) til he hits FA at age 26, and THEN sign a 15 year deal. That’s the best deal for him personally; its pays him til the end of his playable years, plus he gets this year’s $17M, next year’s likely $23M, and the last arb year of probably $28M or so. That’s more like an 18year, nearly $600M deal.

So, all that being said, it has to be about more than the money. Why would he reject this contract now? For me, it has to be just one thing: the Nationals are not going to be competitive for years. Years. And he doesn’t want to wait until he’s 30 to be in the playoffs again, which is a serious possibility if he resigns in DC right now.

This team bottomed out with 100+ losses in 2008 and 2009, then 3 years later they were a 100 win team. So, why aren’t we projecting a similar bounce here? Well, because …

• in 2008 & 2009: we didn’t have tens of millions of dollars of deferred dollars on the books (not that they “count” towards the luxury tax, but the Lerner’s have really kicked the expenses can down the road for the next decade).
• Thus we had the payroll flexibility back then to “buy” a Jayson Werth and an Adam LaRoche and a 4th starter in Edwin Jackson to fill in the holes. We don’t have that right now.
• That 2012 team had four significant home-grown prospects in its top 6 WAR leaders: 2nd rounder Jordan Zimmerman, 1st rounder Bryce Harper, 1st rounder Ryan Zimmerman, and 1st rounder Stephen Strasburg
• Two of these guys were 1st overall, transformative picks who raced through the minors to get to the big club and were major contributors that year.
• The farm system was great in 2012: #1 in the sport in Jan 2012 per BA, which we leveraged to acquire a front-line starter in Gio Gonzalez to power the rotation.

Meanwhile, compare and contrast to where we are now.

• In 2022, we’ve got a $161M payroll this year to go dead last. Some of this was planned expenditures to go away with players we trade ($15M for Cruz, $10M for Bell) …
• But … as we all know, we’ve got $58M a year tied up with two starters who are currently on the 60-day DL (perhaps permanently) and posting a 5.87 ERA while leading the league in such categories as Losses, Earned Runs allowed, and Hits allowed.
• We’re not in a position to draft generational 1-1 players … yet. We’re not picking up a Harper or Strasburg this year, maybe not next either (where the projected 1-1 guys are solid but not historic college bats).
• Zimmermann was a 2nd round pick; when was the last time we had a competent 2nd round pick? Here’s our 2nd round picks going backwards to Zimmermann from 2021 to 2007: Lile, Infante/Henry, Lost-pick in 2019, Cate, Crowe, Neuse, Stevenson/Perkins in 2015, Suarez (didn’t sign), Johansen, Renda, Lost pick in 2011, Solis, Kobernus, Hood, and Zimmermann in 2007. LOOK AT THAT LIST. This is your 2nd highest pick, every year. This is basically 15 years of incompetence. Its patently amazing. From this entire list you have a decent current prospect in Henry, a current middle Reliver (Crowe, with Pittsburgh), a utility infielder hitting .230 (Neuse), a guy who was DFA’d and outrighted earlier this year in Stevenson, and a loogy in Solis. For 15 years of 2nd rounders.
• Most of our prospect depth is in Low-A or below right now, especially on the hitter side.
• We’re somewhere in the deep 20s in terms of a Farm System.

So … i think Soto is reading the writing on the wall and saying to himself … it might be 4-5 years before we compete again. And this team (as is custom in this league) will bottom out before it builds again, so a couple years from now could be really, really bleak. Why would he commit to that rebuild, when he can go to a team that can and will spend (Yankees), or go to a team where money is no object (Mets), or go to a team has more competent draft teams than ours (Dodgers).

So, here we are. I wonder what this does to a potential sale. Would a prospective buyer be “ok” with the team selling off its most marketable asset? Or, would they not want to be saddled with a $400M+ contract coming in the door? Probably the latter honestly.

This team let Harper walk after not really giving him a competitive offer. They let Rendon walk. And now they’re probably going to at least get something in return for Soto.

Here’s the Mocks that have appeared in early July, leading up to the draft. The first couple of Mock draft posts seemed to indicate a pretty clear pattern; the entire industry knows that the Nats are “on” Kevin Parada. Lets see if we start to see any evolution in that sense.

the top 6-7 in this draft are Druw Jones and Jackson Holliday (who definitely are not getting to #5), polished college SS Brooks Lee, and prep players Terrmarr Johnson, Elijah Green, and Cam Collier. Any other name slipping into the top 5 would be a major upset at this point.

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• ESPN Insider (Kiley McDaniel) 6/29/22 mock: Jones, Holliday, Parada, Collier, and the Nats take … Jacob Berry?? This means they’d be leaving both Lee and Green on the board, which most every other pundit says is impossible. Berry is a top pick, but mostly goes at the back-half of the top 10, and the Nats would be leaving 2-3 much better players on the board in this scenario.
• MLBPipeline (Jonathan Mayo) 6/30/22 mock: Jones, Holliday, Green, Cam Collier. Nats take Lee in this best-case scenario. Mayo basically says this is Green’s floor, and if the Nats are put to the test would take Lee over Parada if he’s available. We’ll see.
• CBSSports (Axisa) 6/30/22 mock: Jones, Holliday, Green, Lee, Parada.
• Baseball America (Carlos Collazzo) 7/1/22 mock: Jones, Holliday, Green, Collier . Nats take Parada in this scenario, over Lee and Johnson, which would really piss me off. Collier is, in case you hadn’t heard, the 17yr old who went the Bryce Harper route, graduated HS at 16, then enrolled in Chipola JuCo and has been hitting wood bat as a HS junior all year. Teams that put a lot of stock in “age” value of players are in love with Collier; is Pittsburgh one of them?
• ProspectsLIve 7/6/22 Top 600 Draft board: Jones, Green, Holliday, Parada, Lee. 6-10 goes Collier, Johnson, Cross, Brock Porter and Zach Neto.
• The Athletic staff writer mock draft 7/6/22: Jones, Holliday, Green, Collier. Nats take Parada. Again, i’d rather have Lee here than Parada, and I think the ship has sailed on Johnson as an option for this team.
• MLBPipeline (Jim Callis) 7/6/22 mock: Jones, Holliday, Lee, Johnson. Nats take Green in this scenario, over Parada. Collier also slides here. Green is described as having the best ceiling in the draft and he’d be an excellent pick.
• BleacherReport/Joel Reuter mock 7/6/22: Jones, Holliday, Parada, Lee, Nats take Green.
• ESPN Draft Board (McDaniel) posted 7/8/22: Jones, Johnson, Holliday, Parada, Collier. His 6-10 goes Lee, Green, Dylan Lesko, Jacob Berry, Gavin Cross.
• Athletic/Keith Law final draft board rank 7/10/22: Jones, Collier, Johnson, Green, Lee. Law really likes Collier b/c he’s quite young and will give significant value to his drafting team. His 6-10 goes Holliday, Parada, Jung, Zach Neto and Cross.
• Athletic/Keith Law Mock 3.0 7/11/22: Lee, Jones, Holliday, Johnson. Nats take Parada here, given that Lee is gone. But they leave Green on the board.
• MLB Pipeline 7/12/22 podcast: the team discussed the various what-ifs of the draft and all seemed to agree on a couple of things: if Jones doesn’t go 1-1, he’s going 1-2. They all seem to think Holliday will be gone no matter what the scenario before the Nats pick at #5. Lee could go a couple different ways ahead of us; the odds of him getting to us seem slim. Most likely the MLBpipeline team seems to think in the end the Nats will be picking between Parada and Green.
• Prospects1500 Draft Board 7/13/22: Jones, Green, Holliday, Lee, Parada. 6-10 goes Jung, Cross, Berry, Johnson, and Daniel Susec.
• MLBpipeline (Mayo) Penultimate mock 7/14/22: Jones, Holliday, Parada, Johnson. Nats in this scenario with Parada off the board go with Green over Lee. If it comes down like this … the decision becomes floor versus ceiling. Lee has a clear floor, as a polished collegiate SS, but Green’s ceiling is much higher.
• ESPN Baseball Staff mock draft 7/14/22: Jones, Holliday, Collier, Parada, Nats take Johnson. So, this mock has nothing to do with what the teams are actually doing, and is just three staff writers at ESPN taking who they think is the BPA. Not really of any predictive value.
• CBSsports Mike Axisa final mock 7/14/22: Johnson, Jones (since he’s available), Holliday, Collier, and the Nats have a great choice between Green, Parada, and Lee in this scenario, and Axisa has them taking Green.
• BA 7/15/22: Holliday, Jones, Parada, Johnson, and the Nats take Green. This is a weird scenario; if Holliday is almost guaranteed to go #3, how much of a haircut is he taking at 1-1? Is it enough to take him over Jones, who everyone says is a better player? With Parada off the board here, Green is now the obvious choice. The team has never been associated with Collier, nor Lee really.
• ESPN McDaniel mock 3.0 7/15/22: Jones, Holliday, Parada, Collier, Nats take Berry. McDaniel continues to be the only pundit connecting the Nats to Berry.
• Keith Law final mock 7/16/22: Holliday, Jones, Green, Collier, Nats take Parada.
• MLBpipeline Callis final mock 7/17/22: Jones, Holliday, Green, Johnson, Nats take Parada
• MLBpipeline Mayofinal mock 7/17/22: Jones, Holliday, Parada, Johnson, Nats take Lee. Interesting that he has them taking Lee over Green in this scenario. Both CAllis and Mayo have Berry now going #6.

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Conclusion: it still really seems like we’re going either Green or Parada. I think the MLB pipeline guys said it best: The Orioles at 1-1 will either go with Jones or will cut a slight deal with someone towards the back of the top 7 (likely Johnson). Then, Jones will either go 1st or 2nd, and Holliday will go 2nd or 3rd. Most think Pittsburgh will try to cut a deal at the #4 spot if the O’s cut a deal at 1-1 like most believe they will, leaving the Nats to pick from Parada, Lee, and Green. And, given how far away the team seems from being competitive, its ok to go with the prep player versus the college (catcher) bat. Which leans Green.

My final prediction: Johnson, Jones, Holliday, Collier, and the Nats go with Green.

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Post publishing: who actually went 1-5? Holliday, Jones, Kumar Rocker in a huge shocker, Johnson … and the Nats go with Green. Nats take Green over Parada, over Berry, over Lee. Interesting all around.

This week, ahead of the 2022 Home run Derby, we’re starting to get leaks of the various participants. We got word that 2-time defending champ Pete Alonso is back to defend his Home run Derby title. We heard that the league is putting in retiring future Hall of famer Albert Pujols, and our own Juan Soto (who isn’t the all-or-nothing HR power hitter like some of these guys, but who did have a monstrous 520-foot shot last year).

That’s awesome. But … what would be the absolutely, ideal HR derby in 2022?

For reference, here’s MLB’s list of past HR derby winners. And here’s Wiki’s page which shows all the participants each year. And here’s a list of the 10 longest homers this year.

Here’s who i’d like to see in my optimal HR derby.

1. Pete Alonso, who won it in 2019 and 2021 and will be tough to dethrone.
2. Giancarlo Stanton: because, yeah, he hits bombs. And he won it in 2016. And his exit velocity is crazy.
3. Aaron Judge, who goes into the all-star break leading the league with (as of today) 30 dingers. And because he hits bombs.
4. Kyle Schwarber, runner up to Harper (controversially) in 2018, but also a HR hitting machine. Currently sits 2nd in the league in 2022. When he gets warmed up, he can hit a lot of HRs, quick.
5. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: would love to see his wild swing connecting in the derby.
6. Yordan Alvarez, owner of one of the longest HRs of the season, currently sits 3rd in the league for Homers in 2022, hits bombs.
7. C.J. Cron; he’s a beast built like a linebacker who can really get into one; two of the 10 longest HRs this year are his.
8. Juan Soto: entered last year, hits for power, but on a down year this year.

Honorable Mentions:

1. Bryce Harper, the 2018 winner. Unfortunately, he’s got a broken hand so he’s out.
2. Joey Gallo: he’s only hitting .166 this year, but man he can hit some dingers.
3. Shohei Ohtani; the best player in the game not named Trout can destroy balls, and would be awesome in the competition.
4. Mike Trout: every year he manages to make the top 10 list of longest homers, one year hitting one nearly 500 feet. But he gets squeezed out of this list. Perhaps he shouldn’t; he’s on a sneaky good season pushing for 50.
5. Byron Buxton doesn’t make his way onto most people’s minds for prolific home run hitter, but he’s got multiple 450′ shots this year and is top 10 in the league for HRs right now.
6. Austin Riley can hit some balls.
7. Rhys Hoskins isn’t a bad choice.
8. I’ve always liked Cody Bellinger‘s sweet lefty swing; 47 homers in 2019 as a 23yr old MVP, but he’s struggled with injury since.

So, that’s my ideal list. lets see how close we get to it.

2022 post-publishing: Actual finalized list of 2022 HR derby participants with thoughts (the numbers are the seeds)

1. Schwarber: ok, how is the 2-time defending champion NOT the #1 seed?
2. Alonso: I guess the seeds were done by # of “real” homers in the 2022 season.
3. Corey Seager: not mentioned before now. 21 homers this year, on pace for 40. So he’s a homer threat, but when i think “light tower power” … i’m not thinking about a SS in Texas.
4. Soto: he did hit one 500 feet last year
5. Jose Ramirez: perhaps the most underrated player in the sport. i’m glad he gets some attention.
6. Julio Rodriguez; “who?” you might ask? Just Seattle’s top prospect and a guy who’s been tearing up the league from afar.
7. Ronald Acuna … not a name even from my HMs. He’s clearly a super star player in the league … but do you think “towering power” when you hear his name?
8. Pujols: I get it … he’s a HoFamer, but he’s taking up a spot.

Schwarber and Alonso the clear favorites, but there’s some solid players here.

I looked back at my posts recently … and less and less do I even bother to write about the Nats themselves. In the bad years, i’d post much more frequently and with frustration about the big league team, the decisions made, etc. But I feel like I fell into a trap of sports-writing (if that’s what i’m doing here), where its easier/more interesting to write critical stuff than it is to write positive stuff when the team is good.

I think, for me, this culminated in the 2019 season, where I posted on May 28th a big post discussing who we should be trading. And then, of course, the team rebounded, and honestly I never felt like I could celebrate their success b/c I was almost rooting for them to fail b/c i’d given up on them so early and didn’t want to be proven wrong.

So, since I have spoken almost nothing of the Nats themselves this year, I thought i’d take stock of where we are just ahead of the All Star Break/Draft/halfway point, and put in some color about what we may expect the rest of the way, what’s coming in terms of prospects (haha), and where we may be going next year.

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As I write this on Friday July 8th, the team is 30-55, a .353 winning percentage that puts them on pace for a season-ending record of 57-105. And they’re getting worse: they’re 10-20 in their last 30 and will look to move everyone not tied down at the trade deadline. They’re currently sitting with the 3rd worst record in the league and are just a couple of games “ahead” of the two worse teams (Oakland and Cincinnati) in the race for the #1 overall pick in 2023. For comparison purposes … a 57 win team is actually worse than when this franchise bottomed out in 2008-2009, when they went 59-102 and 59-103 in successive seasons. However this year, this team is managing to do this with a $160M payroll and several guys getting paid as if they’re among the best in the league.

So, we knew they’d be bad. They barely spent any money in the off season to improve the roster. But what’s happened? Lets look at the culprets:

Starting Pitching

Amazingly, the Nats have already seen an entire rotation of starters hit the DL so far, and we’re only halfway through the season.

• Strasburg started on the DL, made one start, and might be done for the season (or career). He’s just made his 16th career trip to the DL.
• Sanchez never made it to Washington.
• The guy who initially replaced Sanchez (Josh Rogers) got hurt.
• Seth Romero was called up just to be put on the 60-day DL, which mean’s he’s getting MLB pay. How does that make you feel about your job, the fact that this guy got nearly $3M in a bonus after he was basically fired from his college team, then has been “rewarded” for multiple team rule violations by being socially promoted, and now is set to earn another season’s full-salary (north of $700k) for doing nothing. Good work if you can get it.
• Joe Ross had a spring injury that’s turned into a second TJ surgery.
• They brought up Evan Lee, gave him a start and he got hurt.
• They called up Tetreault to cover for the completely ineffective Adon (who’s now back, natch), and four starts later he’s got a frigging stress fracture in his shoulder.

The starters who have managed NOT to get hurt have been … underwhelming mostly:

• Corbin: a 5.68 ERA and for a time the 2nd worst ERA among qualified starters in the league, behind only …
• Adon, who now sits 1-12 with a 7.10 ERA. The fact that he’s back in the big leagues and being given starts is patently ridiculous at this point, but what choice do they have (see below).
• Espino, a 35-yr old minor league lifer who is now sticking as a starter … and has the best ERA+ of the entire bunch. They should trade him just to give him a shot at a contender since he’ll be 40 by the time we’re good again.
• Fedde, who I thought should have been non-tendered last fall, but is now our 2nd or 3rd best starter and has thrown 3 straight effective starts to lower his ERA from 4.80 to its current 4.29. Shows you what I know.
• Grey, who I somewhat worry is having one of his control years completely wasted right now, given that he’s one of the hall mark pieces of return for the Scherzer/Turner deal. His starts are up and down, but he’s showing some solid progress. In an ideal world, he’d be an awesome #3 starter behind two studs (Cavalli and Henry anyone?) and a couple of veteran mercenaries on a playoff team.
• (as noted in the comments … I completely forgot about the ridiculous Aaron Sanchez, who had an ERA north of 8 (eight!) in 7 starts before getting cut).

All this being said, at this point there’s basically nobody left to call up. Waiver claim Abbott has struggled in AAA so far (5.55 ERA). So has 2022 MLFA Verrett (5.07 ERA). So has long-time Nat farmhand Jefry Rodriguez (6.47 ERA). So has former rule-5 trashed-us-on-his-way-out-the-door-betcha-hes-super – happy-to-be-back Sharp (5.77 ERA). So has long-man-pushed-into-rotation Carson Teel (4.91 ERA). Henry has been spectacular … but is on the DL. Even Cavalli‘s numbers are rough (4.54 ERA despite last night’s gem (7ip, 2 hits 0 walks, 0 runs). In fact … how the heck does Rochester have a winning record?? They’re 43-38 despite a team ERA of 4.73 and almost no effective starters. Anyway.

The point is this: There’s nothing on the horizon that’s coming up to save the MLB rotation. Maybe Sanchez (who is doing rehab assignments) could come up and send Adon back to AAA where he belongs. But the next injury likely means Abbott up (he’s the only other 40-man guy), or one of the aforementioned guys with AAA ERAs in the 5s. It’d be malpractice to call up Cavalli (or Henry) but maybe they earn it with a string of better results by season’s end.

Bullpen

The Nats collective relievers have a 4.50 ERA this year, ranking them 26th out of 30 teams. The 4 worse teams are, of course, also fellow-tanking teams in 2022 (Colorado, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati). Why invest in middle relievers if you know you’re going to suck?

Fun Fact: NOT ONE current member of the Nats bullpen was home grown. Look it up on the big Board.

• Rainey: trade acquisition in 2019 for Roark. Should be trade bait in july as a closer with 3 years of control; he could actually net a decent prospect. Last place teams don’t need closers.
• Cishek: 2022 FA
• Finnegan: 2020 FA, which was kind of amazing b/c he had exhausted his 3 arb seasons without getting a single appearance with his former team, but we gave him a MLB-guaranteed deal. So this was basically a minor league FA that’s really paid off well.
• Edwards: 2022 Minor League FA
• Garrett: 2022 Minor League FA
• Ramirez: 2022 Minor League FA
• Machado: 2021 Minor League FA
• Weems: 2022 Minor League FA

Even more amazing … of these 8 names, Five of them were MLFAs!! That’s 5 guys who couldn’t even get 40-man guaranteed gigs when we signed them. That means they were considered worse than 1200 other guys who are on 40-man rosters right now.

The fact that we don’t have a single home-grown reliever on the books right now is kind of ridiculous. We did have a few (Suero was non-tendered last November, Klobotis DFA’d and claimed, Voth the same) within the last 6 months or so, but given the sheer volume of pitcher’s we’ve drafted over the past 5 years, you’d think we would have more of a pipeline of guys converted to the bullpen and matriculating up as middle relievers/failed starters.

AAA doesn’t have much in the way of reinforcements either: just one home-grown player in AAA’s bullpen (a continuation of the above indictment of our player development); Matt Cronin who was just bumped up to AAA recently. Otherwise the AAA bullpen is filled with Rule-5 acquisitions (Brill and Taylor), Waiver claims (Murphy and Perez, who has been logging frequent flier miles all season between DC and upstate NY), and MLFAs (our old friend Clippard, who I can’t quite believe has not gotten called up yet with his 2.65 ERA, along with Baldonado, Avilan, and Burdi who is currently hurt). At the next bullpen injury … one of these guys has gotta go up. Meaning another guy laid onto the 40-man roster.

Side note, coming back to Clippard … he’s gotta be wondering if he pissed off Rizzo right now. The team has now added multiple relievers to the 40-man ahead of him: Arano, Ramirez, Edwards, Weems, and Garrett all were MLFA relievers who got the call before Tyler. Really? This guy gave his heart and soul to this team for years; you should have called him up well before randoms we signed out of the trash bucket last January just on principle.

I think the future of this team has to start including more home-grown arms. We cannot rely on veteran FAs and MLFAs as much as we have been. We have dozens of starters in the system; not all of them should be there. We need to start growing more relievers.

Offense

The good: By OPS+ or wRC+ we do have some bright spots: Bell is going to earn us a decent prospect at the trade deadline with his team-leading offensive performance. Soto and Cruz‘s batting averages may be low but they’re league average in run creation thanks to slugging on OBP. Ruiz is showing a near league average OPS+ as a full time starting catcher for the first time; can’t beat that. Plus he’s right in the middle of the order; he’s not an 8-hitter. Garcia has impressed upon his return to the majors; cross your fingers here (yes i know, he can’t field, that won’t matter when we stick him at 2B and neutralize his crap footwork). Yadiel Hernandez is found gold and finally seems to have the LF spot locked up.

The bad: The injury to Kieboom is a dagger for his career honestly. Luckily for him we’re probably going to suck in 2023 as well, so he’ll get one last chance to start in the bigs. Victor Robles continues to look lost; at least he plays a solid CF. Someone’s gotta bat 9th. But we need one of our CF prospects to pan out: going down the line Stevenson in AAA isn’t the answer, Jack Dunn is the starter in AA and is a 20th rounder hitting .230, Ricardo Mendez is hitting .220 in high-A, and then a bright spot in our system Jeremey De La Rosa in low-A tearing it up at age 20. Nothing is close; our latest IFA $5M guy Cristhian Vaquero is definitely a CF, but he’s 5 levels away in the DSL. We’ll likely need a CF option closer to the majors in a couple years. Trade market target.

More bad: Cesar Hernandez seems to be entrenched as the team’s lead off hitter: he’s got a .306 OBP!! I mean … Robles has a .304 OBP. The team seems to be splitting 3B starts between Franco and Adrianza, both of whom are posting sub-replacement level offense. Why did we release Strange-Gordon? I mean, he was hitting .300 while Adrianza is hitting .196 and frigging Fox is hitting .080. I mean, i get it, Kieboom was the plan, and they had to scramble, and the rest are just backups. But man, we can’t find backup infielders who can at least somewhat hit?

Not surprisingly, the Nats are near the bottom of the league in offensive WAR and wRC+ and what not as a team. And, like with the pitching, they seem to be set to get worse when they trade the best hitters (Bell and Cruz) and bring up reinforcements. And who are those reinforcements going to be? We’ll we do have a couple 40-man guys in AAA who will get the immediate call in Casey and Palacios and Fox.

There are a couple non-40-man guys who are in the presumed mix. Nick Banks has been hitting very well in AAA this year (.916 OPS). But unless he’s DH’ing he makes no sense to call up b/c the OF is full (which keeps Stevenson in the AAA as well). Meneses has been powering the ball in AAA and likely is Bell’s replacement the moment he gets traded. Another round with Jake Noll?

The FAs to be of position players are Bell, Cruz, Hernandez, Franco, and Escobar. The last three may not fetch much, but should be moved for whatever they can get, and will lead to a huge gap in the infield. We have some random MLFA middle infielders in AAA that might get the call at that point (guys like Vargas or Flores), plus Fox and his sub .100 BA. So … look out in Aug and Sept.

Not a lot on the near-term horizon either in terms of prospects for the infield: they’re mostly in Low-A.

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Conclusion? We’re on pace for our worst ever season as it is, and stand to get a lot worse, meaning 110 losses is in play. And its likely we’re going to be just as bad next year, with little on the horizon and really serious injury concerns surrounding Strasburg. And there’s little in the way of interesting prospects to look for anywhere close, which is a big personal rooting factor.

First draft of this post?  6/8/2019 when all-region posts started coming out for Virginia and some Freshmen made first teams.

The College players are mostly drawn from my 2019 Local High School draft coverage, listing guys who were HS seniors in 2019 who went to 3-year programs and who are now draft eligible.

Major Local College Draft Prospects for 2022

I can’t remember the last time Virginia had two such highly rated draft prospects in the same year as what we’re seeing with DeLaughter and Cross.  And what’s even more amazing is the fact that there should really be three top10 prospects, since Savino 

• Gavin Cross, OF/Corner: Virginia Tech (by way of Tennessee HS). LH power hitter who slashed .345/.415/.621 in 2021 and then impressed with the CNT. moving up.  Dec2021 MLBpipeline has both local players as top 10 projected picks.  BA #10 in Jan 2022.  1st team Pre-season d1baseball AA.  Mid-to-Upper 1st rounder projection.  2022 Golden Spikes pre-season Watch list.
• Chase DeLaughter, OF/LHP from JMU (by way of WVA HS): one of best hitters in 2021 Cape Cod season.  BA ranks him #22 in college class.  d1baseball ranked him 2021 Cape Cod player of the year, now a 1st round talent.  Dec 2021 now ranked as a top 5 talent?  wow.  Dec2021 MLBpipeline has both local players as top 10 projected picks.  #6 on BA’s top 100 Jan 2022.  2nd team Pre-season d1baseball AA.  Mid-to-upper 1st rounder.  2022 Golden Spikes pre-season Watch list.  The 2022 season hasn’t been kind to DeLaughter, as he got exposed by left handed pitching and may drop a couple of rounds.
• Tyler Locklear, 3B VCU (by way of Archbishop Curley HS in Abington, MD) one of best hitters in 2021 Cape Cod season.  1st team Pre-season d1baseball AA, wow.  late 4th rounder perhaps.

College draft eligibles w/ Local Ties

• Chris Newell, OF, UVA one of best hitters in 2021 Cape Cod season, up to #24 on BA list.  D1baseball projects ast a 4th rounder.
• Nate Savino, LHP UVA by way of Potomac Falls.  Was 1st round talent out of HS, reclassified, went to UVA, was mid-week starter who didn’t miss as many bats as he should have.  Not impressive with Team USA summer of 2021.  Needs to improve.  2021; barely a draft prospect thanks to middling 2020 on the mound when he couldn’t even break into UVA’s weekend rotation.  #62 on BA’s top 100 Jan 2022.  Projecting as late 4th rounder.
• Zach Agnos, LHP ECU by way of Battlefield.  Not projecting as a top draft prospect by d1baseball.
• Lyle Miller-Green, util Oklahoma State by way of Lake Braddock.  Projecting as possibel Day pick.
• Noah Dean, RHP ODU.  Hits 100, had 18.9 K/9 in 2021, ridiculous.  3rd team Pre-season d1baseball AA.  4th rounder.
• Matt Wyatt, RHP UVA.  Projecting as 5-6th rounder by d1baseball.
• Tanner Schobel, SS VaTech: projecting as possible day 2-3 pick.

DC/MD/VA Local Prep players for 2022

• Jack O’Connor, RHP O’Connell (was St. Johns).  Team USA 18U in 2021.   Exploding onto the scene spring 2022 as a possible 3rd rounder.  89-94 with easy arm action.  Good enough that Keith Law drove to Fairfax to catch an O’Connell-Gonzaga WCAC game in May.  UVA commit, all-met 2022, WCAC POTY.
• Nick Morabito, CF, Gonzaga HS.  Helium prospect in spring of 2022 with 70 speed and a solid hit tool, now projecting as 3rd rounder.  Has to be the son of Brian Moribito, who was a contemporary of mine growing up in DC-area baseball (and by contemporary i mean, he was my age and I knew who he was as a McLean-based player when i was 12).  Law says he’s a possible 2nd rounder and will be putting him on his top 100 list.  Virginia Tech commit.  all-met 2022, WCAC POTY.
• Ben Moore, LHP Linganore HS, Frederick MD.  Old Dominion University commit.  Blown onto the scene, named pre-season AA by Collegiate Baseball magazine.  
• A.J. Shephard, C from Patriot (was Osborne Park).  All Virginia Region 6D as freshman in 2019.  NovaNine top 100 in 2019 as a freshman.  2021 listed as #65 draft prospect.  Indiana commit.
• Griffin Stieg, RHP/OF from McLean. All Virginia Region 6D as freshman in 2019.  NovaNine top 100 in 2019 as a freshman.  Excelled at Program 15 main event oct 15, hitting 95 with deception.  Va Tech commit.  WP All-Met 2022.
• Ryan Kennedy, RHP Colgan.  Evoshield Canes summer 2021.
• Bryce Dolby RHP Pro5 Academy NC (was Independence)
• Eli Serrano 1B Pro5 Academy NC (was Patriot).  NovaNine top 100 in 2019 as a freshman, but moved to NC.
• Jackson Kantor, 2B from McLean HS.  All VHSL-6A 2019 2nd team as a freshman, but never grew and has no committed college as of May 2022.

Extended DC/MD/VA Prep players (outside DC Area) on the radar.

• Levi Huesman, LHP Hanover HS (Richmond).  #1 Perfectgame class of 2022, Coastal Carolina commit.  Huge game in Jupiter showcase, 7ip 18K.  Richmond Braves summer team.  #98 on BA’s top 100 Jan 2022.  Preseason HS AA team from Collegiate Baseball.  3rd team pre-season AA BaseballAmerica
• Seth Keller, SS Hanover HS (Richmond): same team as Levi, but outperformed him all year and named MaxPrep’s 2nd team all-american.  Committed to ODU.
• Cannon Peebles, C, Hanover HS, Mechanicsville, VA.  Commit to NC State.  2nd team AA by Collegiate Baseball.

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Sources used

• 2019 All Virginia Regional 6D team as a Freshman
• NovaNine top 100 for 2019 as freshman
• VHSL 2019 all-state teams looking for freshmen
• All-Tidewater team 2019
• 2021 Cape Cod all-league hitters
• 2022 Draft preview Nova Magazine
• Keith Law’s review of Program 15’s main event Oct 2021
• Dec 2021 Fangraphs update to 2022 rankings.
• Dec 2021 MLBpipeline top 100 draft prospects
• Jan 2022 BA top 100 draft class
• Jan 2022 Collegiate Baseball pre-season HS AA team.
• Jan 2022 d1baseball pre-season AAs
• Feb 2022 BaseballAmerica pre-season AAs.
• D1baseball’s Feb 2022 top 250 collegiate draft prospects.
• MaxPreps 2022 HS AAs 
• 2022 WP All-Met
• BA top 500

So … even though its (checks calendar) July, Fangraphs just released its “Top 29 Nats prospects for 2022” ranking. Today its the featured story at Fangraphs, along with the side-eye tag line of “This is one of the worst farm systems in baseball.” So, thanks for that!

I suspect Eric Longenhagen got a little too busy this year, and a ranking that he released in April last year got pushed to mid-season. We’re now basically half way through (or more) of the minor league season and are getting a pre-season ranking list … so it kind of feels silly to analyze it. However it does seem like Longenhagen has taken some 2022 production into account here. Either way, I love prospect ranks and collect every one into a huge spreadsheet, and have for years, and I like writing these reaction pieces … so here goes.

His list, start to finish:

Last Name	First Name	Position	Rank
Cavalli	Cade	RHP (Starter)	1
Henry	Cole	RHP (Starter)	2
House	Brady	SS/3B	3
Vaquero	Cristian	OF (CF)	4
De La Rosa	Jeremy	OF (Corner)	5
Rutledge	Jackson	RHP (Starter)	6
Carrillo	Gerardo	RHP (Starter)	7
Cruz	Armando	SS	8
Irvin	Jake	RHP (Starter)	9
Ramirez	Aldo	RHP (Starter)	10
Millas	Drew	C	11
White	T.J.	OF (Corner)	12
Lara	Andry	RHP (Starter)	13
Lile	Daylen	OF (CF)	14
Infante	Samuel	SS	15
Alu	Jake	3B	16
Lee	Evan	LHP (Starter)	17
Brzykcy	Zach	RHP (Reliever)	18
Abbott	Cory	?	19
Adon	Joan	RHP (Starter)	20
Shuman	Seth	RHP (Starter)	21
Pineda	Israel	C	22
Denaburg	Mason	RHP (Starter)	23
Perez	Francisco	?	24
Cronin	Matt	LHP (Reliever)	25
Parker	Mitchell	LHP (Starter)	26
Quintana	Roismar	OF (CF)	27
Ferrer	Jose	LHP (Reliever)	28
Fox	Lucius	SS	29

Longenhagen has long been a maverick in his rankings for prospects, and you can see it here. He’s big on younger players and he’s got a ton of experience in the Dominican market. He absolutely values ceiling more than floor, and has no problem putting 17yr-olds with scant experience high on these lists. There’s a number of player rankings here way out of line with other pundits (some that I agree with, others not). So, lets highlight some of the interesting placements.

• He goes Cavalli, Henry, House as his top 3, omitting the rookie-exhausted Ruiz from this list. This kind of goes against the trend of pundits putting House at #1, and part of it could be the slight stagnation we’ve seen out of House in Low-A (he exploded out of the gates in April, then crashed in May, and his June numbers are mediocre, and now he’s on the DL).
• Vaquero comes in 4th, and Longenhagen gushes over his performance at pre-draft camps in comparison to his fellow 17yr olds last year. Notably, I discovered that i’ve been misspelling Vaquero’s first name everywhere (Its Cristhian, not Cristian or Christian or Christhian). Vaquero so far is underwhelming in the DSL, “only” slashing .257/.329/.686 with almost no power (just four XBH and zero homers in 20 games). So, lets hope for more.
• De la Rosa at #5. Wow; he’s high man here. De La Rosa may have been this high in pre-2021 lists, but he, well, he sucked in 2021 (.209/.279/.316 in Low-A, albeit in his age 19 season. Luckily, De la Rosa has been much, much better in 2022 in Low-A (.310/.392/.481), showing solid power to go with a 50-steal pace. So, yeah, this now looks like a good ranking. And a good player to keep an eye on as a true CF with 20/20 capabilities apparently.
• Rutledge still too high for me at #6, but its in line with other pundits. Rutledge seems to have turned things around (finally) in Low-A: his last 6 starts have basically been stellar, and in a couple of cases have been (ahem) dominant-even (6ip, 3 hits, 0 runs in one, 7ip 3 hits, in another)
• Irvin at #9!! That’s just amazing. The HIGHEST reputable source that had Irvin anywhere close to this high in his entire minor league career was a #10 ranking by BA in 2019 just after he was drafted. But here he is, sitting as a top 10 prospect in our system per Longenhagen. Amazing. And his ranking is paying off: 2022 results: 3.14 ERA, 1.11 whip and exactly 9 K/9 in 13 four-inning starts so far.
• He’s incredibly high on Millas, putting him #11 in the system and extolling his defensive capabilities. He hasn’t hit though this year (.211), which could put a damper on his promotion going forward.
• TJ White at #12 is also high man amongst peers, and it confirms what a lot of like about White. He’s just 19, has an OPS north of .800 in low-A, and is holding his own.
• Andry Lara comes in 10 spots lower than basically every other pundit out there, ranking him #13. Most every other major shop has him #5 or close to it. And I agree; he’s struggled this year. He’s got easy mid-90s velocity but is getting shelled to a 5.60 ERA in low-A right now. Yes he’s young, but he should also be doing better.
• Jake Alu at #16 … the fact that he’s even ranked is amazing. Nobody else out there has him ranked at all. But Fangraphs thinks he’s a big-league utility guy. He’s 25 in AA, with an OPS at around .800, can play most of the infield positions or even a corner OF. Maybe we’re looking at another Jake Noll here.
• Cory Abbott comes in at #19; not bad for a waiver claim earlier this year. But also a pretty bad indictment of a system in his mind, where we have not one but two waiver claims listed.
• Joan Adon at #20. Wow. The kid who made the 2022 opening day rotation is ranked lower in Fangraphs than the waiver claim we made on Abbott earlier this year. Think about that. In the writeup Longenhagen gives out two interesting nuggets: Adon has now lost his rookie status so he’s done being considered for these lists …. and he points out that the Nats brain-trust altered Adon’s arm angle, which easily explains why he posted a 6+ ERA in the majors this year.
• Matt Cronin dumped way down into the 20s (#25); his reasoning is that Cronin has no 2nd pitch. Which if true … is a problem.
• A few other interesting names in the 20s to point out: Francisco Perez (last year’s waiver claim) is at #24, Denaburg is here in the mid 20s still, and Jose Ferrer (who I had to look up on the big board) comes in at #28.

Now … what’s really interesting about this list is who is NOT listed here.

• No Brandon Boissiere; not a huge omission, but most other shops at least put him in their 20s. Maybe its because he’s hitting near the Mendoza line in Low-A for the second straight season, showing little improvement.
• No Jackson Cluff. I never got the love for this guy and I still don’t; for his entire career he is slashing .206/.299/.312 … and his AA numbers this year are even worse than that. Even if he’s the second coming of Ozzie Smith, you gotta at least hit a little to get to the majors.
• Daniel Marte; completely missing. As he probably should be; he’s now hitting below .200 while repeating the FCL and you have to wonder how much longer he has with the organization. He was a reasonably expensive IFA ($300k in 2018) so he’ll get some rope. By way of comparison, that’s the exact same amount that De la Rosa got in the same year.
• No Mendoza; no surprise here. What a regression for Mendoza. He had an 1.100 OPS his junior year at Florida State and a career .674 OPS with wood professionally.
• Tim Cate: nowhere to be found. Ouch. Our opening day starter in AA in 2021, Mr. Amazing Curve ball that scouts can’t help but rave about, but can he succeed north of A-ball?
• Donovan Casey; not listed. Perhaps an admission of what he really is; a guy who maxes out at AA. He’s struggling this year in Rochester, and struggled last year upon his AAA promotion.
• Seth Romero; absent. As he has been for his entire career.
• Jordy Barley; fangraphs is not impressed. Neither is the Carolina league, where he’s hitting .199 right now.
• Tres Barrera: not listed, though Millas and Pineda are. Interesting.
• Last but not least; Yasel Antuna. Nowhere to be found. This is amazing. By way of comparison, Baseball America has him listed as our #3 prospect. #3 overall. Fangraphs couldn’t find room for him in their top 30, and sits behind two waiver claims. You hate to dance on a guy’s grave … but this is where we are with Antuna right now.

Lets catch up on the last month or so of Mocks and draft rankings, to take the pulse of where we are 3 weeks out.

This is the first time i’ve split up the Mock Draft posts, since it makes no sense to include mocks from the winter with mocks that are posted just ahead of the draft, when intel is at its best. Also, i’ve decided to just include “Draft Rankings” along with Mock drafts to show some context here. Draft Ranking boards do not take into account team preferences (which is the value of Mocks), but are valuable since they indicate what scouting shops think is the true value of the prospects.

So here’s what the Mocks are saying the month before the draft.

I’ll bold the player’s names the first time they appear, not afterwards.

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• MLBPipeline (Jim Callis) mock 6/8/22: Jackson Holliday, Druw Jones, Elijah Green, Brooks Lee, and Nats take Kevin Parada. Callis notes that Parada could go a bit earlier, and if so the Nats are going to be handed either Green or Lee. Both would be great picks; Green’s scouting report basically lists him as the highest upside player in the draft, while Lee is a polished college player who only improved his stock after being a 1st round talent 3 years ago out of HS.
• MLBPipeline (Jonathan Mayo) mock 6/15/22: Lee, Jones, Holliday, Johnson … and in this scenario Nats take Green over Parada. But, this scenario assumes that the Orioles are going to spend the money it’ll take on Lee at 1-1.
• CBSsports Mike Axisa Mock draft v1.0 6/15/22: Holliday, Jones, Green, Lee, Parada.
• The Athletic (Keith Law) 6/16/22 Big Board Draft Ranking: Jones, Collier, Johnson, Green, Lee. 6-10 goes Holliday, Parada, Jung, Zach Neto (a SS from Campbell), then Cross.
• The Athletic (Keith Law) 6/21/22 mock: Jones, Holliday, Green, Cam Collier, and the Nats take Parada. They’d be taking Parada over Lee in this scenario, which I’d struggle to understand (wouldn’t you want a college SS over a college C if you’re “set” for catcher at the MLB level for 6 years?) I know I often preach “you don’t draft for need” in baseball … but Catcher is a little unique. Unless the team is basically saying to themselves “the bat is worth it irrespective of his position.”
• Baseball America’s 6/21/22 Top 500 Draft Class Rank: Jones, Lee, Holliday, Johnson, Green. After this 6-10 is Parada, Jacob Berry from LSU, Jace Jung from Texas Tech, Gavin Cross from Virginia Tech, and the young Cam Collier from Chipola.
• BA Staff Mock Draft 6/23/22: Jones, Green, Johnson, Holliday, then they mock Parada over Lee to the Nats. See, if I had this choice i’d absolutely go Lee and I don’t think its close. The selector’s rationale was that Parada has a “good chance” to stick at the position, but doesn’t pay homage to BA’s own draft ranking board (which now has the switch-hitting SS up to #2 overall). If Lee gets to the Nats, he’s got to be the choice.
• MLBPipeline Draft Board expanded to 250 6/29/22: Jones, Holliday, Green, Johnson, Lee. 6-10 goes Parada, Berry, Collier, Jung, Cross. I’d be ecstatic if this is the way it goes, but something tells me Lee is going earlier.
• CBSSports Mike Axisa 6/30/22 mock: Jones, Holliday, Green, Lee, Parada. Pretty consistent with other mocks at this point.

Summary of Nats likely pick: Basically every pundit has the Nats taking Prada.

Other interesting draft names of note.

• BA’s 250 features the fast rise of Oklahoma’s CWS star Cade Horton, now ranked 24th and probably a 1st rounder.
• Kumar Rocker won’t get back to his originally drafted spot at #10, but he should be a first rounder after solid performances.
• Two local kids still projected to be mid 1st rounders in Cross and Delaughter.
• Nick Morabito, a 2B from Gonzaga HS who lives in McLean, is the son of a little league contemporary of mine. If Nick can hit anything like Brian his dad (who was a 4-yr starter at JMU) then he’ll be successful. MLBpipeline and Keith Law both have him inside their top 100, which puts him at maybe a mid-3rd rounder … is that enough to buy him out of a college commitment?
• Ivan Melendez, the Hispanic titanic from Texas that certain people on this board are gaga over, is ranked #99 on the big board, putting him right in our wheelhouse range for our 3rd rounder (84th overall). The Dick Howser collegiate POTY is usually a pretty good indicator of MLB performance, and past winners include a slew of highly successful MLBers (going backwards, guys like Adley Rutschmann, Brady Singer, Brendan McKay, Andrew Benintendi, Kris Bryant, Mike Zunino, Buster Posey, David Price, and of course two back-to-back guys in Stephen Strasburg & Anthony Rendon. That’s a solid track record. But, Melendez has Drew Mendoza look and feel to him; big guy, 1B limited already, who hits the
• Nate Savino, 116 on the board. Another example of a kid who bought into eschewing 1st round money for the glory of a college coach and now will get 5th round money.

The selection of Jackson Tetreault is the latest in a long line of Nationals decisions driven by signing bonus dollars paid years ago and 40-man roster status, as opposed seemingly to on-the-field performance. Is that a fair statement? Is it too early to tell? Lets explore.

The team gave no less than 13 starts this season to Joan Adon, allowing him to go 1-11 with a 6.97 ERA (which is dead last in the majors for any pitcher with greater than 50 innings pitched this year) before even considering the possibility that they might have a more competent alternative sitting in AAA in Tetreault. This is after Adon had a grand total of 18 innings north of A-Ball in his career prior to his MLB debut in Sept 2021.

So Tetreault comes up, gets shelled in his debut against a very good Atlanta team … then promptly throws two quality starts, pitching into the 7th inning in both of them (at home vs Philly, then on the road against Texas, so kind of hit-or-miss quality).

In other words, Tetreault now has as many quality starts (and has as many times pitching into the 7th) as Adon did this entire season. If he throws another QS in his next appearance, he’ll have matched Erick Fedde‘s quality start output on the year.

My simple question is this: how did the team not see this before now? Year after year this guy has competently pitched in our minors, moving up year after year. Never had 14 K/9 numbers or an ERA that started with a 1, but never really blew up at a level either. This year in AAA was more of the same: 12 starts, 4.19 ERA, 1.29 whip, .239 BAA.

He’s shown decent stuff; 94.7 avg fastball, has touched 97. He’s a 3-pitch guy; fastball, cutter, curve. The cutter seems to come in 89-90 and is more deception than movement, and the curve definitely is a curve, not a slider.

Here’s what BA said about him ahead of the 2021 season.

Ranked Washington Nationals #28 prospect in 2021
TRACK RECORD: Tetreault began his college career as a reliever at Division II Cameron (Okla.) before transferring to State JC of Florida, He struck out 105 batters in 80.1 innings as a sophomore and signed with the Nationals for $400,000 as a seventh-round pick in 2017. Tetrault cruised through the lower minors, but he hit a wall at Double-A Harrisburg in 2019. He logged a 4.73 ERA, had the highest walk rate and the lowest strikeout rate of his career.

SCOUTING REPORT: With a fast, whippy delivery, Tetreault is able to maintain the 93-95 mph velocity on his fastball, which still makes him a candidate for a starting role. His curveball is a work in progress, but it showed a later and sharper break in instructional league than it has in the past. His changeup is a fringe-average pitch. Tetreault is working on staying on the rubber longer and using more of the strength in his legs. His control is below-average.

THE FUTURE: Tetreault’s velocity might tick up with a move to the bullpen. With a questionable third pitch and control, that is his best avenue to the majors.

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So, flash in the pan? Or is he here to stay?

Here’s how the finals between Ole Miss and Oklahoma played out:

• Game 1 Ole Miss opted to go with a “bullpen game” instead of putting out their predicted starter on shorter rest, and it ended up paying off in spades. Reliever Jack Dougherty got the call. And he delivered, throwing 5 perfect innings to start the game before tiring in the 6th. Meanwhile Ole Miss’ bats delivered and put the game away in the 8th with back-to-back-to-back homers to win Game 1 10-3.
• Game 2 saw a classic starter battle, as Ole Miss’ Hunter Elliott threw a solid 6ip 2run game, and Oklahoma’s Cade Horton was out of this world, striking out 13 in 7 1/3 innings. However, Horton ran out of gas, and Oklahoma’s bullpen absolutely imploded, giving up 3 runs in the 8th to seal their fate.

Your 2022 College World Series Champion: Ole Miss. They win their first ever CWS title, the year after Mississippi State wins their first. Great period for the southern state, a stalwart of baseball for decades. And they win without even getting to their ace starter. Amazing. Most pundits think Ole Miss was one of the last teams into this field of 64 (based on a losing SEC record and struggles during the latter part of the season), and now they’re champs.

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This concludes the College Baseball season and our coverage of it for 2022.  I’ll post one more post that covers draftees and signing status for all local-connected players (prep and college) once the draft happens in mid July.

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CWS links/resources

• D1baseball’s tournament central page, which has all the games in one place.
• Top 25 lists according to d1baseball, baseballamerica, and usatoday Coaches poll.
• WarrenNolan’s RPI rankings
• Full Field of 64 at d1baseball.com
• Full field of 64 with some great data points at NCAA.com
• CWS tournament resource page from NCAA.com

2022 CWS coverage:

• Field of 64 announced
• Super Regional Results
• CWS Group Stage Results

We’re to the final of the 2022 CWS tournament; here’s a recap of group play in Omaha.

Resources/links I use heavily during CWS time:

• D1baseball’s tournament central page, which has all the games in one place.
• Top 25 lists according to d1baseball, baseballamerica, and usatoday Coaches poll.
• WarrenNolan’s RPI rankings
• Full Field of 64 at d1baseball.com
• Full field of 64 with some great data points at NCAA.com
• CWS tournament resource page from NCAA.com

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In the Top Bracket ( Notre Dame, #9 Texas, #5 TAMU, Oklahoma )

• In the opening games, TAMU’s pitchers couldn’t find the plate and Oklahoma blew them out. Then in the night cap, Notre Dame showed why its so dangerous, shutting down Texas with solid veteran pitching and getting hits up and down the lineup to win comfortably.
• In the first elimination game, TAMU won an interminable slog of a game over state rival Texas to stay alive and send Texas (and their hitting coach Troy Tulowitzki) home as the first team eliminated.
• In the winner’s bracket game, Oklahoma played solid ball on both sides and cooled the confident Notre Dame team, putting them in the driver’s seat for the CWS final.
• In the play-in game, Notre Dame could get nothing going against TAMU and the veteran team exited 5-1, earning TAMU an old-school Big12 rematch against Oklahoma in the group final.
• In the group final, Oklahoma held serve, topped TAMU 5-1, and advanced to the CWS final loss-less.

Final Group standings: Oklahoma, #5 TAMU, Notre Dame, #9 Texas

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In the Bottom Bracket ( #14 Auburn, Ole Miss, Arkansas, #2 Stanford )

• In the opening games, Stanford’s Brock Jones hit a homer in the top of the first … and then it was all downhill from there for Stanford as they got obliterated by Arkansas 17-2. In the nightcap. Ole Miss continued to surprise, taking out Auburn 5-1 behind a dominant start from Dylan DeLucia.
• In the first elimination game, the highest ranked team in the tournament (#2 Stanford) was sent packing by Auburn.
• In the winner’s bracket game, Ole Miss looked unstoppable in racing away from Arkansas 13-5.
• In the play-in game, Arkansas’ starter Will McEntire, their mid-week/#4 starter, was unhittable early and Arkansas battered Auburn’s taxed pitching staff to an easy win 11-1 and earn an all-SEC rematch in the group final.
• In the group final, Arkansas won a nail-biter 3-2 to force the winner-take-all group final. From there though, DeLucia showed up again, throwing a 4-hit complete game shutout to send Ole miss to the final.

Final Group standings: Ole Miss, Arkansas, #14 Auburn, #2 Stanford

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A strange CWS in that the unseeded teams really shined. However its important to remember that these are not your ordinary unseeded teams in Omaha.

• Notre Dame was ranked as high as #2 this year by Baseball America in February and finished with the 2nd best overall record of any ACC team.
• Ole Miss was literally the #1 team in the nation in March before struggling through its SEC slate and barely making the field.
• Oklahoma kind of inexplicably didn’t get a national seed but headed into the post season ranked 9th by D1Baseball. It was only #19 in RPI .. but played a massive percentage of its games against top 50 opponents.
• Arkansas was ranked #2 pre-season by d1baseball and is still a top 25 team.

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CWS Preview and Prediction: one of the things I hate about the CWS final is that it gives the teams, who have been playing basically every day for a week, just one day off before a Sat-Sun-Mon final. This badly penalizes teams for getting their pitching stretched, and (for me) may dictate who wins. But logistically you can’t keep kids in Omaha for a month, so it is what it is.

Here’s who i think these teams will throw as starters:

• Game 1 Sat 6/26: Jake Bennett for Oklahoma (10-3, 3.66 ERA) vs Hunter Elliott (5-3, 2.70 ERA)
• Game 2 Sun 6/27: Cade Horton for Oklahoma (5-2, 5-24 ERA) vs John Gaddis (3-2, 4.31 ERA)
• Game 3 Mon 6/28: David Sandlin for Oklahoma (9-4, 5.59 ERA) vs Dylan DeLucia (8-2, 3.68 ERA)

Lets be honest: Oklahoma’s pitching is not why they’re here. They have a staff ERA of 5.33 (but have battered opposing pitching to a 7.24 ERA on the season). Their ace Bennett should hold the fort in game 1. Their 2/3 starters have outplayed their stat-lines in Omaha; Horton gave up 2 runs in 6 IP and struck out 11 to beat Notre Dame to continue his late-season dominance: by most accounts he’s made himself a 1st rounder in this CWS and has lowered his ERA several points in the last few weeks. Sandlin absolutely dominated TAMU (7ip, 5hits, 12 Ks) to win their group. So, they’re showing up at the right time.

Ole Miss had to burn DeLucia to get here, meaning he can’t go until Game 3 (and it’d be on just 3 days rest after a 119 pitch outing; ugh says every MLB scout). However, Elliott is their “Ace” on the year and dominated Arkansas on Monday, so Game 1 should be great on both sides of the ball. In game 2 Ole Miss probably goes tandem with Gaddis and their other spot starter (Jack Washburn), who both served as spot starters for the team this year. Gaddis and Washburn combined to throw 7 innings of 3-run ball against Arkansas, but it wasn’t enough and they took a loss.

However, for me the story is Ole Miss not getting a start out of DeLucia until its possibly too late. I think game one may be relatively close, but expect Oklahoma to score runs (they’ve scored 24 in 3 games so far in Omaha) and ride fresher pitching to the title.

Prediction: Oklahoma in two.

Star Power/Players to watch in the final. Keith Law posted his 5 players to watch; they’ve mostly been mentioned in this space here or before, but here they are:

• DeLucia: Law sees him as an org-arm/4A starter ceiling, but his stuff can play up and he may make for a nice 6-10th round pick.
• Hayden Dunhurst, Ole Miss’ Catcher. He’ll either shine or be exposed this weekend, as Oklahoma runs like heck. He started the season as a 2nd round projection, but had an awful season at the plate and might very well refuse to sign wherever he goes and try again next year.
• Peyton Graham, SS for Oklahoma. Probably the highest ranked player remaining, outside of where Horton has ascended to.
• Bennett: good control, 4th starter ceiling.
• Horton, as mentioned, would be a great Cole Henry like pick for the Nats in like the 2nd or 3rd if he’s still there.