Nationals Arm Race

So, heading into the 2023 draft, a slew of the Nats’ top prospect talents were outfielders. Look at any prospect ranking list for our system and you’ll see top 10 players like Wood, Hassell, Green, Vaquero, etc. I was on board early pining for Skenes as our pick at 1-2 instead of Crews, thinking that, “hey we have a lot of top-end OF talent” and, also, “hey we need some starter prospects.” Alas it was not meant to be; Skenes blew up in the CWS and Pittsburgh popped him 1-1.

So we went and drafted Crews in the 1st, plus Pinckney in the 4th and Nunez in the 14th.

Where the heck are all these guys going to play?

Here’s a quick look at the OF depth chart thanks to the Big Board, with what it looks like now and what it may look like in 2024 with this influx of new talent.

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Right now, listing guys in order LF/CF/RF and then backups/DHs

• AAA: Rutherford, Hill, Alu, with Reyes and Blankenhorn as backups.

Most of these guys are MLFAs signed either in 2022 or 2023. Hill just got DFA’d off the 40-man. Alu is kind of a utility guy who’s filling in in the OF right now. Mazara just got released. Rutherford is crushing the ball this season, but I wonder if any of these guys are really in the long term plans for the team. I could see a couple of them getting call-ups post-trade deadline if we move some players and need some bodies (Alu since he’s on the 40-man, probably Rutherford too b/c he’s earned it). But for 2024, lots of room here.

• AA: Young, Hassell, Wood, with Harris and Casey as backups.

Wood and Hassell are basically our two top prospects right now, but both are struggling in AA. Young got promoted up this year and is hitting .300 in AA so far but has no power. Casey was demoted down to AA and is a backup, and seems like he’s not long for the organization. Harris seems like an undersized backup.

• High-A: Lile, De La Rosa, McKenzie with Shumpert, Antuna, Wilson as backups.

Antuna is hitting .176 and seems to finally have been taken out of a starting spot; this latest draft class should finally result in his release. Shumpert is a converted SS. Lile just got promoted up to High-A, otherwise nobody here is hitting well. Wilson is 27 and was demoted from AAA for some reason. Its hard to see any of these guys pushing for a promotion the rest of the way.

• Low-A: Emiliani, Green, De La Cruz, with Quintana, Thomas as backups

Emiliani was a 1B but apparently can lumber around LF now, and just got demoted back to Low-A. Quintana may be permanently moved to 1B and may not count here. Green, for all his prospect starlight, is not hitting well at all. De La Cruz is struggling. So is Thomas. Seems like these guys will be repeating Low-A unless they blow up the rest of the way.

• FCL: Ochoa Leyva, Vaquero, Cox with Baca and a slew of guys hitting under .200

Vaquero is the big-name here and he’s hitting .300 as an 18yr old so far in Rookie. Ochoa Leyva holding his own. Cox is not and is looking like a huge 4th round bust so far.

• DSL: Tejada, Acevedo, Batista with Soto and three other 2023 IFAs as backups.

Batista hitting .303, the rest of them hitting like .150. I can’t see any of them getting promoted.

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Here’s what we could be looking at as your starting OFs 2024. Maybe it’s not quite as hard as I thought.

• AAA: Hassell, Wood, Rutherford, with MLFAs (Hill, Blankenhorn, Reyes released or resigned)
• AA: Young, Harris, McKenzie, Lile (Casey relesaed)
• High-A: Crews, Pinckney, Green, De la Rosa, Shumpert (Wilson, Antuna released)
• Low-A: Vaquero, De La Cruz, Nunez, Ochoa Leyva (Thomas, Emiliani released)
• FCL: Cox, Baca, Batista, Marte, Peoples (Contreras, Ramirez released)
• DSL: Current crew plus 2024 signees forcing 2023 underperformer relases

This would mean:

• Aggressively promote Wood in particular to AAA and hope that Hassell continues to develop. Rutherford back in AAA assuming we layer him in the MLB level, otherwise looking at more veteran MLFAs for AAA.
• Definitely aggressive with promotions of McKenzie and Lile to AA, based on their already being promoted this season. Harris and Young treading water.
• This would put new draftees Crews and Pinckney at High-A to start 2024. I do not buy that Crews will do the AFL->AA Strasburg path. Maybe he will and you’re seeing Lile or McKenzie back in High A instead.
• High-A also has too many players … that’s the squeeze. So maybe that does support Crews in AA. this plan has Green promoted (even though he’s not meriting right now) but DLR staying put.
• Nunez at Low-A. Seems right. He is joined by two guys moving up from rookie ball. But not Cox, who may be a blown 4th rounder.
• Everyone else in Rookie ball/DSL staying put, or perhaps 1-2 DSL guys moving inland.

So, maybe the crunch isn’t as bad as we thought. Eventually though if these guys all matriculate as expected, we’re going to have some logjams in the MLB outfield, and likely some trades to acquire assets.

MLB released the rosters for its 2025 Futures Game, kind of a minor league all star exhibition/showcase that’s played the day before the All Star game that has been gaining traction and attention.

The Nats just sent two of our best prospects to the 2023 Futures game, a game supposedly meant to highlight prospects but ridiculously cut short to 7innings (so basically there’s no continuity of play) and streamed on a minor platform (Peacock) that few people pay for. We can tell you that our own James Wood went 0-1 with a BB while Brady House got one of just five hits on the night for the NL team based on the box score. Both those players are now on the MLB roster, and Wood is highly likely to be appearing in the actual All Star game this weekend.

In 2024, we sent our absolute best prospect in Dylan Crews, who started in the game and went 0-3 with a HBP and a SB.

This year, we’re again naming our absolute top prospect in Travis Sykora (though he had to withdraw with injury, being replaced by another top 10 prospect in Clemmey), and also sending recently promoted AAA reliever Grissom, who is barely on the top 30 prospect list. Why Grissom? Well because his dad is managing one of the teams of course. Here’s Keith Law’s preview of the event.

But lets take a step back, call out the Futures game participants for the Washington Franchise over the years, opine whether we actually sent our best prospect(s) at the time, and see if its an indicator of future success. (Note: the links in the years go to the rosters or summaries of the games).

• 2025: Travis Sykora, Marquis Grissom, Jr., Alex Clemmey. Sykora our #1 at the moment with Susana hurt, then subsequently got hurt so Clemmey went in his place. Grissom included for familial reasons; his dad is coaching the AL futures team. So, with Sykora and Clemmey being sent while Crews, House, Lile in the majors, the Nats once again send their best. Career Outcomes: check back in a few years.
• 2024: Dylan Crews, our clear-cut #1 and #2 in all of baseball, so we sent our best. Career Outcome: Crews now promoted and our starting RF when not hurt.
• 2023: James Wood, Brady House. These were inarguably the top 2 ranked prospects in the system as of mid 2023, unless you had a thing for Hassell. Career outcomes: premature of course, but right now Wood looking like a star, House just called up
• 2022: Cade Cavalli, Darren Baker. Cavalli was still #1 or #2 on most lists, joined by the likes of House, Henry, and Vaquero. Cavalli was a much higher visibility in 2022, while Baker’s inclusion was probably positional scarcity filling last year, and is really a fringe prospect.
• 2021: Cade Cavalli was either our #1 or #2 prospect to Jackson Rutledge as of the 2021 futures game, so we sent our best.
• 2020: No game: Covid
• 2019: Carter Kieboom. He became our #1 prospect upon Robles promotion in June 2019. Career outcome: Man, what the heck happened to this guy. Forgot how to hit, forgot how to field, then had TJ, had a flexor Mass elbow issue, to outrighted and released.
• 2018: Carter Kieboom, Luis Garcia. Victor Robles was set to go but got hurt, and Juan Soto was set to go but got promoted, and at this moment they were our #1 and #2 prospects. Kieboom and Garcia were not far behind though. Career outcomes: Garcia was thought to be a bust for years, but now produces as our starting 2B.
• 2017: Victor Robles; with the departure of Giolito and the graduation of Turner, Robles became our clear #1 prospect.
• 2016: Reynaldo Lopez: At the time of the game, Giolito and Turner were still 1-2 for us, but they went last year so we sent our #3 or #4 prospect in Lopez. Career Outcome: Lopez struggled for us, then we flipped him to CWS in the Adam Eaton trade and he pitched effectively in their bullpen as an 8th inning guy with decent numbers for a while.
• 2015: Lucas Giolito, Trea Turner. Giolito was our top prospect for several years before getting traded. Giolito famously shipped to CWS when the Nats apparently couldn’t fix his mechanics (CWS could). Turner obviously starred for us for years.
• 2014: Lucas Giolito, Michael Taylor. Giolito was our top prospect for several years before getting traded. Taylor was a mercurial player for us for years, now is succeeding for Minnesota.
• 2013: A.J. Cole, Taylor Jordan. Our top prospects at the time of the game were Lucas Giolito and Brian Goodwin: Giolito was still recovering from TJ so wasn’t a candidate to go (he went the next year). Cole could never figure it out for us, so we traded him for nothing to the Yankees. He eventually became a decent bullpen guy for a couple of years before getting hurt. Jordan got to the majors and showed a flash of promise later this summer in 2013, but couldn’t cut it as a MLB starter and faded away.
• 2012: Alex Meyer, Felipe Rivero. Anthony Rendon was our clear #1 at the time of the game and didn’t go; was he hurt? Could have been. Meyer was generally #2. Career outcomes: Meyer was yet another arm we couldn’t make work, so we turned him into Denard Span. To be fair, neither could Minnesota, who flipped him to the Angels, where he had a solid season in 2017, got hurt, and disappeared. Rivero? Flipped in the Mark Melancon deal to Pittsburgh, where he changed his name to Vazquez, then was a decent reliever until he got arrested for a litany of charges related to underage girls. I believe he’s still in prison as of this writing, but could be wrong.
• 2011: Bryce Harper, Brad Peacock: Harper was clearly our #1 prospect at the time. Career outcomes: Peacock got flipped in the Gio Gonzalez trade, made his way to Houston and pitched pretty well for them for years. Harper of course we know the story.
• . Peacock got flipped in the Gio Gonzalez trade, made his way to Houston and pitched pretty well for them for years. Harper of course we know the story.
• 2010: Danny Espinosa, Eury Perez. We graduated a ton of guys this year just prior to the game, so believe it or not you can make a credible argument that Espinosa was our #1 prospect at the time of the game. Career Outcome: Espinosa hit at the mendoza line for this team for years before getting flipped to the Angels in our down 2016 season. Perez was a 4-A guy, got DFA’d in late 2014 and was claimed; he had one decent season for Atlanta then disappeared.

So, historically the Nats have really done a nice job of sending our best prospects to this show case, which can’t necessarily be said for all the teams out there. And for the most part, we’ve seen decent career outcomes for those players who we sent.

Now that we’re past CWS, but not yet to the draft, lets clear out some psots.

If a major prospect scouting shop publishes a top 30 list, you know i’m all over it. On June 15th, BA did so for our team. Here’s an analysis of the list, looking at players who rose/fell against BA’s list in January, as well as how BA’s rankings for a player may be out of whack with the general consensus by all the major shops.

Here’s the Mid-Season BA top 30 list in order:

BA Rank 6/15/23	Last Name	First Name	Position
1	Wood	James	OF (Corner)
2	Hassell III	Robert	OF (CF)
3	House	Brady	SS/3B
4	Green	Elijah	OF (CF)
5	Cavalli	Cade	RHP (Starter)
6	Rutledge	Jackson	RHP (Starter)
7	Vaquero	Cristian	OF (CF)
8	Bennett	Jake	LHP (Starter)
9	Susana	Jarlin	RHP (Starter)
10	De La Rosa	Jeremy	OF (Corner)
11	Lile	Daylen	OF (CF)
12	White	T.J.	OF (Corner)
13	Henry	Cole	RHP (Starter)
14	Cruz	Armando	SS
15	Lara	Andry	RHP (Starter)
16	Irvin	Jake	RHP (Starter)
17	Lipscomb	Trey	3B
18	Ferrer	Jose	LHP (Reliever)
19	Pineda	Israel	C
20	Brzykcy	Zach	RHP (Reliever)
21	Alu	Jake	3B
22	Quintana	Roismar	OF (CF)
23	Millas	Drew	C
24	Parker	Mitchell	LHP (Starter)
25	Cronin	Matt	LHP (Reliever)
26	Saenz	Dustin	LHP (Starter)
27	Young	Jacob	OF (CF)
28	Baker	Darren	2B
29	Acevedo	Andy	OF
30	Solano	Edwin	SS

Now, here’s some observations.

• Same top 2 for BA as in January, and confirming that Wood may be the best player we got in the whole post-World Series dumping. He’s settled a bit since his AA promotion, but still has an OPS north of .800 in AA at age 20.
• They’ve elevated House a couple spots, and they have him higher than anyone else had him this spring at #3. Why? Because he forced his way into High-A a couple of weeks ago and looks recovered from back and wrist issues. 2023 OPS so far: .829. not bad.
• Big Riser: Rutledge; #9 in January, #6 now and in stark contrast to other shops, one of which has him all the way down at #17. And who can blame them? So far in 2023; 11 starts, 3.18 ERA, 1.11 whip in AA. Last year in Low-A: 20 starts, 4.90 ERA, 1.39 whip. I mean, who would have predicted that you’d take a guy who couldn’t get guys out in Low-A, bump him up two levels, and suddenly he’s a top prospect again?
• Jake Bennett bumped up 3 spots from #11 to #8. It was probably dumb to start the guy in low-A as a 2nd round pick from a major conference with CWS experience … and rightfully so, he dominated it in April and early May. Lets hope he pushes for another promotion and ends the season in AA.
• Daylen Lile: what is going on here? BA had him at #27 in January, basically a non-prospect, now he’s #11 in the system. A true CF with some power and a ton of speed (18 SBs in 19 attempts) and he’s hitting in low-A; he needs a promotion. But where will he go? High-A has 40-man player De La Rosa in CF, AA has Hassell, AAA has Alex Call. In this humble opinion, the Nats could (finally) cut bait on Antuna, who is hitting f*cking .151 in High-A after getting outrighted off the 40-man and it confounds me why he still plays, so as to make some room for Lile or Green, both of whom may need to be promoted soon.
• Cole Henry treads water at #13, a bit lower than other shops. Its a “show me” season for Henry, to see if he’s recovered from a major shoulder issue. My hops are not high.
• BA has bumped up Jake Irvin, rightfully so. He may be posting a 5.25 ERA in the majors, but at least he’s in the Majors … which, remember, is the entire point of prospects. Should Irvin be ranked higher than guys like Susana (#9) or Lara (#15), who can’t get guys out in the bus league? Yes he should.
• Trey Lipscomb gets a bump up a few spots. He’s quietly made his way to AA a year after being drafted … think about this? Lipscomb was a 3rd rounder last year and is in AA, but Bennett was a 2nd rounder and is in High-A. Why? Lipscomb may be in AA due to positional scarcity; he’s not earning it at the plate with a sub-700 OPS figure right now, and he may very well trade spots with House in a few weeks when Brady needs to get moved up and play 3B.
• #21 Jake Alu gets back onto the rankings after being dropped out of the top 30. #21 seems about right for a 4-A corner infielder/outfielder type.
• Quintana dumped 5 spots, and rightfully so. He’s struggling in Low-A, and they’ve moved him to be a 1B/DH type. Not good; he’s gonna have to really hit to move forward as a 1B only guy.
• Mitchell Parker has taken a nose-dive, from #14 in Jan to #24 today. Rightfully so; he’s finally getting hit after succeeding in Low and High-A in the last couple of years. I think this was an inevitability; scouts never favored the guy, who seemed to be getting outs mostly due to deception and a funky delivery. in AA, he’s been exposed so far. One of 2 things happens from here: he either “figures out the level” in early 2024 and keeps on moving, or he’s relegated to be “funky lefty out of the pen” guy, a role that might get him to the majors faster.
• Matt Cronin also dumped a ton of spots, from #18 in January to #25, and rightly so; he’s getting shelled in AAA as a 25-yr old lefty bullpen arm. Word of caution; if they’re a reliever in college … they better be a really, really good reliever to count on them going forward.
• Dustin Saenz pops onto the list at #26 after not being ranked by practically anyone for a while, on the strength of his dominating low-A and getting moved to Wilmington. Unfortunately, he was already too old for low-A, made one start in high-A and got shelled. We’ll see where he goes from here.
• Jacob Young also resurrecting his prospect career, popping in at #27. the 2021 7th rounder without a ton of prospect cred hit .300 in high-A and got moved up to AA, where he’s sharing an OF with two of our best prospects in Hassell and Wood. He’s only 23, and he’s got some speed even if he’s undersized. Should be interesting to see where he goes.
• Another guy without much prospect love pops in at #28: Darren Baker. I mean, the guy is now in AAA, starting at 24, hitting .300. I’m not sure why he’s not a higher-ranked prospect honestly. Maybe b/c he’s got a limited ceiling as a utility 2B guy in the majors.
• The last two guys ranked were the top 2 prospects from the 2023 IFA class, Andy Acevedo and Edwin Solano. I call these types of prospects, “Call me in 3 years if/when they show up in Florida.”

Jan 2023 top 30 players now off the list:

• #16 Thad Ward: probably has exhausted his rookie status at this point.
• #23 Evan Lee: what happened to this guy? Went from AFL darling to 40-man to a lefty reliever who can’t get guys out in AA at age 26.
• #26 Gerardo Carrillo; Maybe we over-rated this guy all along. Ok, maybe *I* overrated this guy all along. Initially he presented as a more important player in the big Scherzer/Turner trade; we got back Grey, Ruiz, Carrillo, and Casey. Clearly Ruiz and Grey were the prizes, Casey a utility throw in (who’s now 27 in AA hitting .201), and we have Carrillo, who has never really shown he can get guys out above A Ball and is on the season-ending DL list right now.
• #28 Tim Cate: BA was one of the last hold-outs on the Tim Cate prospect bandwagon in January, now even they can’t find room.
• #29 Aldo Ramirez: 8 good starts for Low-A in 2021, and he hasn’t pitched since. Missed all of 2022, still on the 60-day dl halfway through 2023. Will he ever come back?
• #30 Will Frizzell, the Mr. Irrelevant of the Jan 2023 list. The team over-promoted him in the off season, quickly exposed him in AA as he hit .155, now he’s back in High-A where he should have been, hitting a healthy .889 OPS figure. Problem is … he’s been a full time DH this entire year, not even taking the field at 1B. Unless he’s posting a thousand OPS figure, its hard to be a prospect like that.

Other Notable names not ranked:

• Brenner Cox: not every prospect shop likes him, and he couldn’t even come close to cutting it in Low-A this year. Might be a wasted prep 4th rounder.
• Jared MacKenzie: he hit .400 in low-A last year, true CF. He’s not bad. Would you put him above a 1B only guy who’s the same age but in a lower league? Probably.
• Seth Shuman: Looked great in High-A until a sudden season ending injury (which screams TJ); no wonder he’s not on the fringes of the top 30.
• Samuel Infante, Brandon Boissiere, Jackson Cluff: what happened to these guys?
• Yasel Antuna: just kidding.

So, in years’ past, when the Nats were drafting somewhere besides the top 5, analyzing mock drafts was a lot more fun. We could look at who was predict to go at the top, then we could analyze all the myriad of names that could conceivably fall to the nats wherever they were picking.

In 2023 though, this exercise has proven to be pretty simple. There’s basically two guys who practically every pundit thinks will end up on our team, so this collecting of mock draft exercise seems futile.

Here’s some early takes on the 2023 draft class, with some mocks. By May, consensus amongst most scouts was the same top 5 in some varying order, then a gap to 6 and beyond.

Top 5 expected to be ( not necessarily in this order):

• Dylan Crews, OF from LSU, is the current #1 overall projection. Hit 349/.463/.691 as a sophomore for LSU with 22 homers. Plays CF but likely a corner in pro ball at 6’0″ 200lbs of power.
• Max Clark, a prep OF from Indiana with an all-Lefty speed/hit tool comparable to Jacoby Ellsbury. Possible 5-tool lefty who can hit 96 on the mound. Vanderbilt commit, isn’t getting to college. Struck out just 3 times in his entire junior season while slashing .577/.717/1.126.
• Walker Jenkins, a prep corner OF from NC. Commit to UNC. Underclassman on 18U national team, Projects to 30-home run power, had more walks and homers than Ks his Junior season.
• Wyatt Langford, OF, Florida. Huge bat, led Florida in slash lines in 2022 and now projects as a possible CF, turning him into an upper-end 1st rounder.
• Paul Skenes, RHP, LSU: Air Force xfer who is helium guy based on Fall 2022 work. Big arm. Exploded onto the scene in Spring 2023, added velocity, now expected top 2 picks.

Other names who appeared in earlier top 5 lists but who have dropped include:

• Chase Dollander, the RHP Friday starter for Tennessee in 2022. 103/13 K/BB in 79 innings, 2.39 ERA for Best team in college baseball in 2022. Shooting up draft boards with Jacob deGrom comps in 2022, but struggling in 2023. Slipping down the boards.
• Jacob Gonzalez, SS from Ole Miss. Middle of the order bat, slashed .355/.443/.561 for Ole Miss his sophomore season while leading team to CWS title.
• Jacob Wilson, SS Grand Canyon. All WAC as a freshman, starred for Team USA summer 2022. Stock increasing late 2022, rising up.

Here’s some early Mock Drafts that we’ve seen. Nats pick #2 but we’ll put in the top 5 for context.

• BA 2023 Way Too Early mock 7/20/22 (as in, the day after the 2022 draft): Crews, Clark, Dollander, Jenkins, Gonzalez. This is before we knew that the Nats would pick #2, and there’s no way they’re leaving top-end college talent on the board in a college-rich draft to pick a prep kid like Clark.
• BA 2023 Draft Class Rank 7/25/22: Clark, Crews, Jenkins, Gonzalez, Dollander. Crews would be a very, very solid pick at #2, despite our top three prospects also being OFs.
• BA First Full Mock post lottery 12/7/22: Crews, Dollander, Langford, Wilson, Gonzalez. Dollander as the top arm would be great, but beware his spring season as Tennessee’s Friday night starter.
• MLBPipeline Mock draft 12/15/22 with top 100 release: Crews, Dollander, Clark, Skenes, Langford. MLBPipeline notes that they went chalk to their top 100 at the top, noting that Dollander is the “best pitching prospect since Strasburg.” Fitting if the Nats get him.
• BA’s first official 2023 Mock draft 3/16/23: Crews, Langford, Skenes, Dollander, Clark.
• MLBpipeline Callis first mock 5/4/23: Crews, Skenes, Langford, Jenkins, Clark
• BA Mock v2.0 5/11/23: Crews, Skenes, Jenkins, Langford, Clark
• BA 5/17/23 staff draft. Crews, Skenes, Jenkins, Langford, Clark as well.
• MLBpipeline Mayo Mock 5/18/23: Crews, Skenes, Jenkins, Clark, Langford
• Keith Law 1st mock 5/23/23: Crews, Skenes, Clark, Jenkins, Langford
• MLBpipeline Callis mock 6/1/23: Crews, Skenes, Langford, Jenkins, Clark
• BA 6/8/23 mock 3.0: Crews, Skenes, Langford, Jenkins, Clark

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So, what do I think will happen? I think Pittsburgh, a notoriously conservative franchise in the draft, will cut a small deal with Crews (giving him the same $$ that he’d get at 2nd overall) and take him 1-1. A positional player is less risky than a pitcher, always. This then lets the Nats take the big arm, the guy who everyone says is the best pitching prospect since Strasburg, and they can start him in High-A or AA like with Strasburg, with an eye on getting to the majors maybe by late 2024.

What if the Pirates take Skenes? Then the Nats trip over themselves to take Crews. I don’t care how many OF prospects we have right now … Crews is that good. I don’t buy that Langford can play CF (if he could, he’d be doing so), and I’d rather have a college guy versus a prep guy.

What if the Pirates don’t take Crews or Skenes? If this happens … I think the Nats take Skenes.

Its College Baseball post-season time, something we’ve followed in this space for years. Here’s a quick guide to the CWS 2023 post season.

First off, some resources for you.

• Your final top 25 heading into the post-season according to d1baseball, baseballamerica, and usatoday Coaches poll. All three have Wake Forest #1 overall, a great feat for the smallest school in any power conference.
• Local teams in the rankings: UVA is in the 9-11 range on all polls, Maryland is at the edges of the top 25 in all polls, and DMV adjacent teams like West Virginia, and ECU are there as well.
• WarrenNolan’s RPI rankings are a very important part of the seeding and selection process, as we’ll discuss in a bit.
• Here’s the field of 64 with some great data points at NCAA.com (which should be free)
• Here’s D1Baseball.com’s Tournament Central, my favorite place to track the tourney.

Your top 8 seeds and favorites to make Omaha before play started, in order, along with their RPI and their Strength of Schedule (SoS) denoted:

1. Wake Forest (RPI=1, SoS=33)
2. Florida (4,17)
3. Arkansas (3,4)
4. Clemson (6,6)
5. LSU (5,13)
6. Vanderbilt (7,5)
7. Virginia (10,57)
8. Stanford (15,37)

Six of the top eight national seeds are also top 8 of RPI, with UVA getting dinged b/c they typically play such a poor mid-week schedule, and Stanford gets dinged despite crushing the Pac-12 because of a down year in that conference. The two missing top=8 RPI seeds?

• Kentucky at #2 RPI based on their #1 strength of schedule. They’re the #12 overall seed, hosting a regional but set to go to LSU in the super regional, a dagger of a matchup for two good teams.
• South Carolina at #8 RPI based on their #3 strength of schedule. They’re the #15 overall seed, meaning they project into #2 Florida for another potentially brutal all SEC super regional.

Local DC/MD/VA local teams in the tourney:

• Virginia: a top 8 national seed, slightly over seeded. They get a somewhat easier regional with Oklahoma as their #2, and project to host Coastal Carolina in a super regional; they have a pretty clear path to Omaha.
• George Mason makes the tourney for the first time in years, and for their troubles are a #4 seed heading to Wake Forest. Brutal draw.
• Maryland also heading to Wake’s draw as that regional’s #2 seed; why these two teams aren’t in Charlottesville is kind of beyond me.
• West Virginia is heading to Kentucky’s regional as that #2 seed; hard to see them getting out.

Other local teams who we thought had a chance: Virginia Tech’s rpi is 48, but they had a 12-17 ACC record. William & Mary was the next highest ranked DMV team; they were just .500 in CAA play. Liberty took a big step back this year, as did JMU when they matriculated a 1st round pick. Kind of a down year for local schools.

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Quick Regional Recaps of the 16 regional action, ordered by National Seed super Regional matchup

• #1 Wake Forest silenced any doubters, winning this regional by a combined score of 48-7, topping the surprising mid-major George Mason in the regional final.
• #16 Alabama made it look easy, cruising to 3 straight wins to take its regional.
• #8 Stanford saved some fact by forcing a Monday decider against TAMU, and then completed the come back to advance.
• #9 Miami was outclassed at home by Texas twice to lose the regional in a battle between two of college baseball’s most historic programs.
• #5 LSU held serve and moved on in a regional that basically went chalk. LSU threw Skenes in the opener for some reason and he pitched a complete game versus Tulane (who entered the tourney 19-41). 9ip, 2ER 12Ks 0 walks. not sure why they didn’t hold him for Oregon State but it doesn’t matter since they advanced and he’ll go game 1 of the super regional.
• #12 Kentucky lost in the winner’s bracket final but came out of the loser’s bracket to force the Monday decider. In that game, they edged Indiana to advance.
• #4 Clemson lost a stunner of a 14 inning marathon to last year’s #1 team Tennessee and it seemed to deflate them; they didn’t even get back to the regional final as Tennessee tops Charlotte to advance and knock out the ACC power.
• #13 Auburn got beat two straight as a host and Ivy League Penn was in the driver’s seat until Southern Miss beat them twice on Sunday to advance.
• #3 Arkansas got embarrassed by TCU, who beat them 20-5 and 12-4 to take the regional and knock out the national seed.
• #14 Indiana State outclassed a regional with big-conference names to move on as a mid-major.
• #6 Vanderbilt shockingly lost to Xavier in the loser’s bracket to exit before even the regional final, clearing the way for Oregon to advance.
• #11 Oklahoma State was absolutely shocked at home, going 2-and-out. The pundits predicted that Oral Roberts (the 4th seed here) was no slouch and indeed they took out Dallas Baptist to take the regional with relative ease.
• #7 UVA won a regional that went perfectly chalk, as Army got outscored 25-2 and UVA beat ECU twice to move on.
• #10 Coastal Carolina took a huge upset loss on the first day but took out Duke in the regional final to force the Monday winner-take-all. In that game, Duke turned on the offense and cruised 12-3 into the super regionals.
• #2 Florida bounced back from total embarrassment as the #2 overall seed and beat Texas Tech twice to move on.
• #15 South Carolina battered their way to the regional title, scoring 41 runs in 3 games.

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Thus, your Super Regionals are ...

• #1 Wake Forest v #16 Alabama
• #8 Stanford v Texas
• #5 LSU v #12 Kentucky
• Tennessee v Southern Miss (Shockingly Southern Miss is the host, not the more famous Tennessee)
• TCU v #14 Indiana State (TCU = host for some surprising reason)
• Oregon v Oral Roberts (Oregon = host)
• #7 UVA v Duke
• #2 Florida v #15 South Carolina

Talk about carnage of top seeds. #3 Arkansas, #4 Clemson, #6 Vanderbilt all out, and without putting up much of a fight along the way. Just nine of the sixteen hosts advanced. There’s two super regionals that feature both regional hosts eliminated (how do they determine who hosts?) Both of the under-seeded teams by RPI ended up advancing, with South Carolina making a statement.

Super Regional predictions:

• #1 Wake over Alabama
• Texas upsets #8 Stanford
• #5 LSU squeaks by #12 Kentucky (they won 2 of 3 in SEC regular season)
• Tennessee takes out Southern Miss.
• TCU continues its upset run over #14 Indiana State
• Oregon over the Cinderella Oral Roberts
• Duke upsets #7 UVA (they won 2 of 3 in Charlottesville in the ACC regular season)
• #15 South Carolina over #2 Florida (they swept Florida in SEC regular season play)

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Prospect Watch. From Nats perspective all eyes are on LSU’s super regional, since the top two projected picks both play there. We’ll revisit prospect watch based on the super regionals and who’s still playing. But your top prospects still playing:

• LSU: Dylan Crews and Paul Skenes, projected to go 1st and 2nd overall
• Florida: Wyatt Langford, projected top 5 pick, along with another arm in Hurston Waldrep as a 1st round projection.
• Tennessee: Chase Dollander, who was in the 1-1 mix but who has struggled, continues to build up draft sock.
• Wake Forest: Their RHP Rhett Lowder is a possible top 10. 3B Brock Wilken end of 1st round.
• Virginia: their Catcher Kyle Teel and 3B Jake Gelof both top 50 prospects.
• Miami: 3B Yohandy Morales is a mid-1st rounder
• Stanford: SS Tommy Troy is a mid-1st rounder
• TCU 3B Brayden Taylor an end of 1st rounder
• Texas RHP Tanner Witt a comp-1st round projection

So, lots of draft talent on display this weekend.

We did an end of April check-in on the rotations; how about and end-of May one too?

Important links for this analysis:

• Big Board: the big board shows the rotations, plus the starters and the roles of the relievers as best as I can figure. Furthermore, the rotations are in the correct “order” and synced across the system.
• Nats MLB stats: at baseball-reference.com
• AAA Rochester stats: (all minor league stats at milb.com)
• AA Harrisburg stats
• High-A Wilmington stats
• Low-A Fredericksburg Stats

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We’ll start with the Majors.

Rotation: Corbin, Grey, Gore, Williams, Irvin

Changes since opening day: Irvin for Kuhl, who went out with a slight injury and then has been kept down while Irvin came up and, at least initially, looked solid.

Observations: Irvin’s first two starts were fantastic. Even his third was promising, with his numbers inflated by a couple of infield singles and a crummy reliever who let in 3 of Irvin’s inherited runners. Since then though, it has not been good, and Irvin’s ERA now hovers in the mid 5.00 range. He’s giving up way too many base runners (1.68 whip) and I think he needs to head back down to work on his command. Meanwhile, Grey & Gore continue to look solid, if a bit wild, and look like solid rotation pieces for the next 5-6 years. Trevor Williams continues to get by on smoke and mirrors (there’s more than a point difference between his ERA and FIP), and Corbin is who he is at this point, eating up innings for his salary until he runs out his contract at the end of next year.

Next guy to get cut/demoted: Irvin. I think the Irvin experiment has trailed off and Kuhl will regain his spot in the rotation for a little while longer. Neither is really deserving, Do you want Irvin to continue to develop in the majors so that you can give innings to a one-year guy like Kuhl?

---

AAA Rochester:

Rotation: Urena, Adon, Abbott, Peralta, Espino

Changes since Last Month: Just veteran MLFA Urena replacing the promoted Irvin in the rotation.

Observations; The seasonal ERAs of these five starters is, in order: 5.18, 9.35, 4.50, 6.25, and 6.11. That’s awful. It isn’t much better controlling for the last month; none of them have an ERA under 5.00. What’s interesting is that we know (based on last year’s MLB stats) that both Espino and Abbott work far better as relievers versus starters, yet they both continue to stay in the rotation. Urena is 31 and has been awful, Peralta 34 and nearly as bad. I’m not sure what to do with Adon; he’s regressed since his AAA season last year, is falling in the depth chart, and soon may be nearing the “next guy to get cut from the 40-man to make room” territory

Meanwhile, Tommy Romero is kind of like the “6th starter,” a swingman who gets spot starts, and his numbers look great. I’m not sure why we cling to spots for washed up AAA starters in their 30s when we could feature guys who might actually be prospects. I think the team should release Urena and Peralta, put Irvin back here, and put Romero in the rotation in the short term.

Of course, the likely answer to “why is Urena still here” is named Cole Henry, who is doing a re-hab tour of the minors and should return to the AAA rotation soon, likely spelling Urena’s release. Jackson Tetreault is also lurking in rehab, but he’s getting shelled in a-ball right now and doesn’t have anything to prove below AAA, so we could see some shuffling. I’d like to see

Next guy to get promoted: nobody deserving

Next guy to get demoted or released: Urena/Peralta for Henry/Tetreault, then if we need a AA promotion put Abbott or Espino back in the pen.

---

AA Harrisburg:

Rotation: Cuevas, Alamedo Hernandez, Rutledge, Parker, Troop

Changes since April: Hernandez in for Herrera, who seems to have had a season-ending injury in early May.

Observations: The AA rotation is starting to come together. Three of these guys have sub 3.00 ERAs for the month of May (Rutledge with a 1.90 ERA, Cuevas with 2.84, and Hernandez with a 2.70). I’m especially interested to see what Cuevas (age 21) does the rest of the way; a 21yr old in AA is impressive enough, for him to be effective is amazing. Hernandez is a 23MLFA that the team signed out of the Mexican leagues, he’s just 23, and he’s shown to be pretty effective as well; the Mexican league is considered a “AAA-quality” league and I wonder if he’ll be effective if he gets moved up. Amazingly to this observer, the former 1st round pick Rutledge, who I was almost convinced was a complete bust, is the bets of them; 1.90 ERA in May, 0.97 Whip, 20/4 K/BB in 23 innings. Dare I say it … he’s starting to look like a 1st rounder! I mean, should we start putting his name into future MLB rotation consideration along side Cavalli and Henry and Skenes when we draft him? 🙂

The season has also shown that guys who were formerly being used as longer relievers or starters are now clearly one-inning relievers. Evan Lee, Lucas Knowles, and Tim Cate all included.

Next guy to get promoted: Rutledge. Heck, he’s on the 40-man, if he dominates AA another month move him up to AAA and bump one of the retreads there.

Next guy to get demoted or released: Parker. After cruising through the A ball leagues, he’s apparently met his match in AA. Good thing for him is that he’s a lefty with punch-out capabilities, so he’s got bullpen options.

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High-A Wilmington

Rotation: Luckham, Saenz, Huff, Alvarez, Lara, with Theophile getting spot starts

Changes since April: None really, just the addition of Luckham

Observations: Wilmington’s rotation has been harder to track this month thanks to two guys doing rehab starts there, plus some rainouts/double headers making for a bunch of spot starts. Huff and Lara continue to struggle; Lara at age 20 in high-A continues to confuse me; he had a 5.53 era in low-A last year and now has an even higher ERA in High-A this year. Is this good for his development? Why not keep him in low-A, a more age-appropriate league, until he proves he can solve it? Luckham was last month’s darling; he’s come back to earth. Really, the best performer has been Saenz, who gave up just 3 earned runs in the month of June and is repeating the level. Another month like this and he’ll be moving up. Theophile seems like he’s somewhere in rotational limbo, but has a big enough arm to possibly feature more as a reliever.

Next guy to get promoted: Saenz

Next guy to get demoted or released: Lara

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Low-A Fredericksburg

Rotation: Bennett, Susana, Atencio, Cornelio, Denaburg

Rotation: Bennett, Cornelio, Sanchez, Caceres, Susana

Changes since April: Denaburg mercifully moved to the bullpen and replaced by Sanchez. Aldonis briefly in the rotation but got hurt. Atencio moved to the bullpen for Caceres.

Observations: Jake Bennett making fast work of Low-A: he had a 33/3 K/BB ratio in 5 starts in May and now sports a 1.93 ERA in 9 starts. Could we finally have a successful 2nd round pick? I think he needs to get out of Low-A, given his draft round and collegiate pedigree. Our other major prospect in Low-A is Susana, who had 4 starts but went just 14 total innings in the month. His numbers are decent, but he has to go deeper in games. 2022 draftee Cornelio is just way too wild (12 walks in 15 May innings). Caceres is an older IFA (he’s 23 just getting to Low-A). Sanchez halved his seasonal ERA in May, so that’s good.

Next guy to get promoted: Bennett

Next guy to get demoted or released: I don’t know; they’ve already demoted Denaburg and Atencio, we need another month to see which of the other guys would go next.

---

Conclusions: by most accounts, our top starter pitching prospects right now are in rough order:

• Cavalli (TJ, out for year)
• Susana (scuffling in Low-A)
• Bennett (crushing in Low-A, needs to be promoted)
• Rutledge (crushing in AA, needs promotion)
• Ward (stashed in the MLB bullpen as a rule-5 guy)
• Henry (so far so good on come-back from TOS)
• Lara (over promoted and struggling in high-A)
• Irvin (in the MLB rotation, may need more AAA time)
• Parker (struggling in AA)
• Aldo Ramirez (hurt, in XST)

When we draft Skenes he’ll take over as #1 on this list.

Could we be choosing 5 from Grey, Gore, Irvin, Cavalli, Henry, Rutledge, Skenes, Ward, and Bennett in a couple years time? That’s the dream.

Next up during the best time of year (Prospect Season!) is Keith Law, who was a long-time ESPN prospect guy before pivoting to the Athletic, where he’s been their main guy for several years now.

Disclosure: of all the prospect writers, I like Law best. Therefore, i’m more likely to like where he ranks people.

Law is more ceiling oriented than floor; you’re more likely to find a random 18yr old than the 25yr old in AAA who hit .300 but who plays 2B/LF (ahem, Jake Alu). So, keep that in mind.

Here’s his top 20+ for the system.

Klaw Rank	Last Name	First Name	Position	2022 Level	Year Signed/Drafted	Acquisition	Bonsu
1	Wood	James	OF (Corner)	Low-A	2021 2nd	Trade	2600000
2	Green	Elijah	OF (CF)	FCL	2022 1st	Draft	6500000
3	Hassell III	Robert	OF (CF)	High-A	2020 1st	Trade	4300000
4	Cavalli	Cade	RHP (Starter)	AAA	2020 1st	Draft	3027000
5	House	Brady	SS/3B	Low-A	2021 1st	Draft	5000000
6	Susana	Jarlin	RHP (Starter)	FCL	2022 IFA	Trade	1700000
7	Henry	Cole	RHP (Starter)	AA	2020 2nd	Draft	2000000
8	Vaquero	Cristian	OF (CF)	XST	2022 IFA	IFA	4900000
9	De La Rosa	Jeremy	OF (Corner)	Low-A	2018 IFA	IFA	300000
10	Bennett	Jake	LHP (Starter)	FCL	2022 2nd	Draft	1734800
11	Irvin	Jake	RHP (Starter)	High-A	2018 4th	Draft	550000
12	Rutledge	Jackson	RHP (Starter)	Low-A	2019 1st	Draft	3450000
13	Cruz	Armando	SS	XST	2021 IFA	IFA	3900000
14	Lara	Andry	RHP (Starter)	Low-A	2019 IFA	IFA	1250000
15	Quintana	Roismar	OF (CF)	XST	2019 IFA	IFA	820000
16	Downs	Jeter	2B	OO - AAA	2017 1st	Waivers	1825000
17	Lile	Daylen	OF (CF)	XST (TJ)	2021 2nd	Draft	1750000
18	White	T.J.	OF (Corner)	Low-A	2021 5th	Draft	400000
19	Alu	Jake	3B	AA	2019 24th	Draft	10000
20	Ferrer	Jose	LHP (Reliever)	Low-A	2017 IFA	IFA	?
21	Lipscomb	Trey	3B	Low-A	2022 3rd	Draft	758500
22	Carrillo	Gerardo	RHP (Reliever)	AA	2016 IFA	Trade	75000
23	McKenzie	Jared	OF (CF)	Low-A	2022 5th	Draft	410500
24	Brzykcy	Zach	RHP (Reliever)	High-A	2020 NDFA	NDFA	20000
25	Cox	Brenner	OF (CF)	FCL	2022 4th	Draft	1000000
26	Valera	Leonel	SS	OO - ?	?	MLFA	?
27	Sanchez	Jose	SS	High-A	2016 IFA	IFA	950000
28	Thomas	Johnathan	?	?	?	Draft	?
29	Baker	Darren	2B	High-A	2021 10th	Draft	146800
30	Ramirez	Aldo	RHP (Starter)	XST (inj)	2018 IFA	Trade	450000
31	Ward	Thad	RHP (Starter)	OO - AA	2018 5th	Rule-5	275000

,

And here’s some reactions

• Same top 5 as everyone else.
• But, he’s got Green above Hassell, which is kind of rare, and is indicative of ceiling based analysis. Law thinks both Wood and Greene could be special and ranks them accordingly.
• Law is one of the few to keep Cole Henry in the top 10; he notes the TOS surgery, but also notes Henry’s command and raw stuff was #2 starter before the injury. We’ll just see what happens. We’re all hoping he returns at some semblance of his former self.
• He’s high man on Jake Irvin, putting him at #11 just below Bennett at 10. Which makes perfect sense honestly, b/c they’re the same pitcher. Big body, control and off-speed guys who project to be 4th/5th starters. One’s a brand new draft pick, one was at AA last year. It’s just kind of mind boggling that one shop had Irvin at 35 and MLBpipeline didn’t even rank him in their top 30 last mid-season.
• Oh my god, he has Rutledge ranked #12. Maybe my fan-boy love for Law is ending. He’s kind of iffy in his analysis, noting that Rutledge throws hard and maintains velocity, but doesn’t seem to have much RPMs or a third pitch. Hint to Nats Player Development: THAT MEANS HE’S A RELIEVER. Maybe 2023 is the year they realize that Rutledge can either be a shutdown 8th inning guy in the majors or a failing starter in High-A.
• Waiver claim Jeter Downs at #16. Law makes a good point: the guy was in AAA before the Pandemic, had made AA by the time he was 21. So the talent is there somewhere. Though, the Nats aren’t exactly renown for fixing reclamation projects. So, we’ll see. Maybe he’s a change of scenery guy. But nobody else is this high on Downs.
• He’s a little lower on White than others, but does note that the guy is super young. Law also points out the obvious; given the Nats prospect OF depth (five of our top 10 are outfielders), a guy like White probably is getting bumped to 1B sooner than later. Which mean’s he’s *really* gonna have to hit his way to the majors.
• He actually mentions Alu at #19. I’m shocked.
• The first shop to mention MLFA/NRI Leonel Valera in any capacity. It isn’t often you see a MLFA getting prospect buzz, but Law seems to like his tools.
• Also the first pundit to mention Jose Sanchez, our SS/3B in High-A, in some time. This guy was once ranked as high as 8th in the system in 2019. Maybe he can regain his mojo.
• His last honorable mention was our Rule-5 pickup Ward, ranking him roughly 30th when other shops have him in the teens.

Players Law is missing:

• No mention of Mitchell Parker. I’m guessing he thinks Parker’s success is smoke and mirrors lefty with funky stuff. At some point Parker will hit a wall and stop getting guys out regularly; lets hope its in Washington and not Harrisburg.
• No Cronin; no surprise there, since Cronin entered pro baseball as a reliever and Law doesn’t rate relievers as prospets.
• No Evan Lee; i guess he really has to show us something health wise.
• No mention of our Catcher depth Pineda or Millas. Probably not surprising.
• No mention of anyone in our IFA class. Might be too early, or might be that we didn’t give out a $4M bonus this year.
• Infante completely off the list; but that’s the same with all the other pundits too. Great 2nd rounder!
• Lastly … no Antuna, though Law gives him special mention as having fallen so far.

Prospects1500.com is the most courageous prospect ranking shop out there, releasing top 50s every year when most other shop puts out lists with no more than 30 names.

We often talk about how prospects in the 20s are, for all intents and purposes, maxing out as lottery tickets or org guys, but Prospects1500 goes even further, ranking another 20 guys.

So, more to talk about.

First up, Here’s my master list of all Nats prospect rankings. This XLS has more than 200 pundit rankings of individual players in our system, dating back to 2004 believe it or not. Nearly 400 players have appeared on a prospect ranking list for our team in that period. This is one of the biggest resources i’ve managed to maintain and keep updated over the years, and it just keeps growing every time another prospect list is dropped. I find this xls fascinating if only for the discrepancies between shops in the way they rank players.

Back to Prospects1500: here’s their 2023 Top 50 list. Since this is not behind a paywall, I’ll post the full 50 here:

rank	Last Name	First Name	Position	2022 Starting Level	Draft/IFA signing Year	How Acquired?	Bonus if known
1	Wood	James	OF (Corner)	Low-A	2021 2nd	Trade	2600000
2	Green	Elijah	OF (CF)	FCL	2022 1st	Draft	6500000
3	Hassell III	Robert	OF (CF)	High-A	2020 1st	Trade	4300000
4	Cavalli	Cade	RHP (Starter)	AAA	2020 1st	Draft	3027000
5	House	Brady	SS/3B	Low-A	2021 1st	Draft	5000000
6	Vaquero	Cristian	OF (CF)	XST	2022 IFA	IFA	4900000
7	Susana	Jarlin	RHP (Starter)	FCL	2022 IFA	Trade	1700000
8	Henry	Cole	RHP (Starter)	AA	2020 2nd	Draft	2000000
9	De La Rosa	Jeremy	OF (Corner)	Low-A	2018 IFA	IFA	300000
10	White	T.J.	OF (Corner)	Low-A	2021 5th	Draft	400000
11	Cox	Brenner	OF (CF)	FCL	2022 4th	Draft	1000000
12	Bennett	Jake	LHP (Starter)	FCL	2022 2nd	Draft	1734800
13	Lara	Andry	RHP (Starter)	Low-A	2019 IFA	IFA	1250000
14	Brzykcy	Zach	RHP (Reliever)	High-A	2020 NDFA	NDFA	20000
15	Lipscomb	Trey	3B	Low-A	2022 3rd	Draft	758500
16	Cruz	Armando	SS	XST	2021 IFA	IFA	3900000
17	Rutledge	Jackson	RHP (Starter)	Low-A	2019 1st	Draft	3450000
18	Lile	Daylen	OF (CF)	XST (TJ)	2021 2nd	Draft	1750000
19	Alu	Jake	3B	AA	2019 24th	Draft	10000
20	Quintana	Roismar	OF (CF)	XST	2019 IFA	IFA	820000
21	McKenzie	Jared	OF (CF)	Low-A	2022 5th	Draft	410500
22	Frizzell	Will	1B	Low-A	2021 8th	Draft	179800
23	Ferrer	Jose	LHP (Reliever)	Low-A	2017 IFA	IFA	?
24	Ramirez	Aldo	RHP (Starter)	XST (inj)	2018 IFA	Trade	450000
25	Carrillo	Gerardo	RHP (Reliever)	AA	2016 IFA	Trade	75000
26	Ward	Thad	RHP (Starter)	OO – AA	2018 5th	Rule-5	275000
27	Parker	Mitchell	LHP (Starter)	High-A	2020 5th	Draft	100000
28	Boissiere	Branden	OF (Corner)	Low-A	2021 3rd	Draft	600000
29	Theophile	Rodney	RHP (Starter)	Low-A	2018 IFA	IFA	10000
30	Baker	Darren	2B	High-A	2021 10th	Draft	146800
31	Infante	Samuel	SS	Low-A	2020 2nd	Draft	1000000
32	Pineda	Israel	C	High-A	2016 IFA	IFA	450000
33	Cronin	Matt	LHP (Reliever)	AA	2019 4th	Draft	464500
34	Downs	Jeter	2B	OO – AAA	2017 1st	Waivers	1825000
35	Irvin	Jake	RHP (Starter)	High-A	2018 4th	Draft	550000
36	Antuna	Yasel	SS/OF (Corner)	High-A	2016 IFA	IFA	3900000
37	Young	Jacob	OF (CF)	Low-A	2021 7th	Draft	275000
38	Millas	Drew	C	XST (inj)	2019 7th	Trade	170000
39	Shuman	Seth	RHP (Starter)	High-A	2019 6th	Trade	235000
40	Cabrera	Manuel	SS	early	2023 IFA	IFA	550000
41	Denaburg	Mason	RHP (Starter)	XST (TJ)	2018 1st	Draft	3000000
42	Polanco	Bryan	RHP (Reliever)	DSL	2021 IFA	IFA	?
43	Emiliani	Leandro	1B	Low-A	2017 IFA	IFA	?
44	Troop	Alex	RHP (Reliever)	AA	2017 9th	Draft	185000
45	Mendoza	Drew	3B	High-A	2019 3rd	Draft	800000
46	Marte	Daniel	OF (CF)	FCL	2018 IFA	IFA	300000
47	Arruda	J.T.	SS	Low-A	2019 11th	Draft	250000
48	Acevedo	Andy	OF	early	2023 IFA	IFA	1300000
49	Solano	Edwin	SS	early	2023 IFA	IFA	1300000
50	Soto	Elian	OF/SS	early	2023 IFA	IFA	425000

Here’s my reaction to the list, going down the rankings from #1 to #50.

• This analysis includes more than just a ranking of 50 players; author Caleb Sanders also breaks the players down into tiers, includes some video, etc. He defines the Tiers as you’d expect; the top tier are expected to basically be All Stars (Wood and Green), the 2nd tier to be “solid MLB contributors” (Hassell, Cavalli, House, Vaquero), Tier 3s to have a reasonable expectation of making the Majors (every one ranked from 7 to 20).
• So, with all due respect, it is way, way too early to be putting those kind of expectations specifically on Vaquero in particular. The Cuban showed very little in the DSL in 2022 based on the size of his signing bonus, his pedigree, his origins (Cuba), and the fact that he was 17 turning 18 at the end of the season in a league filled with younger players. I don’t have a problem ranking him where they do (6-7 range, right in line with everyone else), but claiming he’s got a high probability of making the majors right now seems to entirely be based on is signing bonus of $4.9M. Call me when Armando Cruz ($3.9M) or Yasel Antuna ($3.9M) pans out.
• No quibbling with their top 6-7 players; same 6-7 that everyone else has.
• Cole Henry at #8. This is aspirational; if he’s healthy he’s probably top 5. Right now its a coin flip if he pitches at the same level again, maybe worse odds than that. I’d have him in the teens.
• Huge bump up for TJ White, who comes in at #10 when other major shops had him in the deep 20s in their 2022 lists. We’ll see if other pundits agree when the “big” lists from MLB, BA, Klaw, and Fangraphs come out pre-2023.
• Brenner Cox at #11. I dunno. Something screams Jakson Reetz to me about Cox; a prep player who gets bought out of a D1 commitment and wasn’t really on anyone’s prep radar. I need to see some production before buying in.
• Love for Covid NDFA Zach Brzycky (scrabble score for his last name? 30 points!) at #14. That’s great; BA’s mid-season 2023 list didn’t even have him in their top 30. I thought he was crazy for signing for the pittance that he did after the 5 round Covid draft and I hope the team takes care of him.
• Jackson Rutledge comes in at #17, which at least is a reasonable ranking for him as compared to fools who keep putting him in their top 10. But hey, now he’s on the 40man so i’m sure we’ll see him in the majors soon, even if he has an 8 ERA in High-A in June.
• Jake Alu, given the #19 spot. He hasn’t seen a prospect ranking since Fangraphs’ August ranking. Alu is an excellent example of the difficulties of ranking prospects. He hit well in AAA but features as a low-ceiling MLB utility player; how do you rank that as a prospect evaluation? Is Alu a better or worse prospect than some 17yr old DSL kid who is 6 years and 5 levels away from where Alu is right now but has a higher theoretically “ceiling?” Either way, bravo to Alu and I hope he fares well in 2023.
• First time we’ve seen Will Frizzell on any prospect list after his 2021 drafting. I mean, lets be honest, this dude is big (6’5″ 225) and destroyed Low-A pitching this year (.377/.426/.696). I suppose you’d expect that out of an SEC middle-of-the-order bat. He needs to get to higher levels and see if he can blast his way up. He’s positionally limited (1B/DH)
• Aldo Ramirez getting dinged down a bit, as he should be given his injuries. He sits #24 here.
• Gerardo Carrillo all the way down at #25. I’m liking this pundit; he’s not afraid to ding down players who don’t perform. What has Carrillo done at this point to have anyone think he has a shot of making the majors?
• Newly acquired waiver claim Thad Ward comes in at #26. Sure. whatever.
• #27 Mitchell Parker should be higher. All he’s done at every level is perform. Right now, who would you rather have on the mound in a must-win game, Parker at #27 or Rutledge at #17? How about Parker or Bennett at #12?
• First time ranking ever for Rodney Theophile, coming in way down at #29 but giving some props for the $10k IFA signing who cleaned up in Low-A this year.
• Another waiver claim in Jeter Downs sits at #34. sure, whatever.
• It’s not going to be worthwhile to quibble too much about anyone ranked below #30. I will point out players who I think are too low, and then players who are missing at this point
• Jake Irvin is higher than #35. I don’t get this ranking. I mean, the dude posted respectable numbers in AA and was put on the 40-man. Who’d you rather have, Irvin (#35) or Andry Lara at #13?
• Yasel Antuna, ranked at #36. Where he should be. This is your reminder that the idiots at Baseball America ranked him #7 a month ago.
• Four of our new IFA signings from a week ago are here: Manuel Cabrera, Andy Acevedo, Edwin Solano, and based on his last name apparently, Elian Soto. I find it somewhat interesting that Cabrera was the best ranked prospect of these players, but got a bonus that was a third of what Acevedo and Solano got.

Believe it or not, after 50 players, there’s some players who are missing from this list who I probably would have found room for.

• Would you have put Evan Lee in here somewhere? I mean, he was in the majors last year. Now he’s not even worth ranking above a bunch of 16yr olds we just signed? He’s hurt, not dead.
• Jackson Cluff hangs around as a defensive specialist; worth mentioning? There’s other plus-defenders out there who could turn things around with the bat: Jordy Barly, Donovan Casey, etc.
• I guess we’ve completely given up on Tim Cate at this point. Drew Mendoza is still worth ranking but not Cate.
• Tres Barrera: nowhere in the top 50.

All in all, a solid list.

Hat tip to Luke Erickson and Nationalsprospects.com, because I had no idea that Baseball America had released its organizational top 10 list yesterday. This is incredibly irritating to me as a Baseball America subscriber; I somehow failed to get an email notification of this event, which means I missed the chat they held yesterday, which would have allowed me to ask the most obvious question, “Why in the hell would you still have Jackson Rutledge in your top 10??”

But, more on that later.

BA releases its top 10 in the fall, then works on its Prospect handbook for several months, and releases a full top 30 usually in Late Jan/Early Feb. So this is just a preview of what we’ll get in a few months.

Here’s the top 10, and in parentheses i’ve listed where BA had the player ranked in their last 2022 ranking (released on 8/10/22 after all draft and trade machinations).

1. James Wood, OF (#3)
2. Robert Hassell, OF (#2)
3. Elijah Green, OF (#4)
4. Cade Cavalli, RHP (#5)
5. Brady House, SS (#6)
6. Crithian Vaquero (#7)
7. Jarlin Susana, RHP (#8)
8. Jeremy De La Rosa, OF (#10)
9. Jackson Rutledge, RHP (#9)
10. T.J. White, OF (#29)

So, some comments.

• Their #1 prospect in August was, of course, C.J. Abrams. It must have been published during the 24 hours that dude was at AAA before getting called back to the majors and losing his rookie eligibility.
• In BA’s eyes, Wood did enough in a month at our Low-A post trade acquisition to jump over Hassell to be our #1 prospect. Its the first ranking i’ve seen with Wood at #1.
• However, in all honesty, BA has the top 3 guys correct, and then the next two guys correct. A consistent top 5 with basically every other shop since these guys arrived in 2022.
• Not too much to quibble about with Vaquero at #6, or Susana at #7. Prospects361 had Susana slightly higher, but this is in line with where MLBpipeline has these guys as well.
• De la Rosa: he’s been in the 8-10 range in every ranking i’ve seen since the 2022 trade deadline.
• I’ll jump over the elephant in the room to note that in the last two months, BA has decided that T.J. White has gone from a fringe, useless prospect (A guy in low A ranked #29 is not someone you’d expect to ever amount to anything), to our top 10. White’s low-A numbers: .258/.353/.432, 10 homers in 92 games and 329 ABs/382 PAs. But, wait for it … 104 strikeouts in those 382 PAs. 104! that’s more than 27% K rate. I mean, hell, for 27% K rate in the low minors i’d expect a homer at least every 20 PAs. But we got 10 homers in 382 PAs, or one homer every 38 PAs. that’s awful. That’s one homer a week. That’s 10 punch outs for every homer. That’s a lot.

So we get to Jackson Rutledge.

Rutledge, who had 20 starts in Low-A as a fourth year pro out of a Juco. A 1st rounder college draftee in his 4th pro season, still in Low-A b/c he has yet to prove he can cut it any higher. Rutledge, who pitched to a 4.90 ERA in 20 starts in low-A, with a 99/29 K/BB ratio (so, not even a K/inning!). 1.39 whip. Averaged less than 5 innings a start against a bunch of 20 and 21 yr olds.

Rutledge. This is a top 10 prospect in our system. Not Henry (who’s hurt yea but dude was still in AAA at the same damn age). Not Cruz or Lara, or Bennett or any of the 2022 draftees who immediately debuted at a higher level. Rutledge.

Some people were like, “oh he finished strong.” No he didn’t. His last 2 starts were the 4 ER in 5 IP variety.

He had 20 starts in Low-A: any guesses as to how many quality starts that comprised? Eight. He had 8 QS in 20 low-A starts this year. A guy with his pedigree should be dominating Low-A of course, but i mean, not even a 50% QS rate? That’s a pretty low bar.

And now he’s on the 40-man. Did he prove he had mastered Low-A in 2022? I don’t think so; if his bio started with anything else besides “1st round pick …” he’d be closer to a release than a promotion.

But here we are. Rant off.

Happy Thanksgiving to all!

Yesterday we got our first Prospect list of the new season. Prospects361 is always an “early list,” and came out right around this time last year.

I capture every prospect list, and have for years, and keep them in an XLS i periodically upload to the Big Board. Once we get rolling on this season’s lists i’ll do the same.

For now, here’s the top 15 on Prospects361 list with some commentary:

rank	Last Name	First Name	Position
1	Hassell III	Robert	OF (CF)
2	Wood	James	OF (Corner)
3	Green	Elijah	OF (CF)
4	Cavalli	Cade	RHP (Starter)
5	Susana	Jarlin	RHP (Starter)
6	House	Brady	SS/3B
7	Antuna	Yasel	SS/OF (Corner)
8	Vaquero	Cristian	OF (CF)
9	De La Rosa	Jeremy	OF (Corner)
10	Lara	Andry	RHP (Starter)
11	Cruz	Armando	SS
12	Henry	Cole	RHP (Starter)
13	Bennett	Jake	LHP (Starter)
14	Cox	Brenner	OF (CF)
15	Parker	Mitchell	LHP (Starter)

Here’s some thoughts.

• Seven of these 15 players were acquired in 2022. Hassell, Green, Wood, Vaquero, Susana, Bennett, and Cox. It’d look even better if Abrams and Ruiz and Grey were still in here, but it does give you an idea of the huge talent influx over the past couple of seasons.
• Robert Hassell seems like he’s going to be our new “#1 prospect on every list until he gets to the majors” going forward: in every list I’ve seen since his acquisition, he’s been #1 (or #2 to C.J. Abrams #1, who just needed a few ABs to lose his rookie eligibility).
• I have to say … an OF comprised of our top 3 prospects on this list (James Wood in LF, Hassell in CF, and Elijah Greene in RF) sounds … pretty damn good. In 2023 they’ll be 21, 22, and 19 in order, and probably are starting in AA, High-A, and Low-A respectively … but man we can dream on a MLB outfield with all three positions manned by home grown top-end prospects.
• Our top prospects heading into 2022, guys like Cavalli, and House, are pushed down a bit to 4 and 5. Cavalli probably won’t be on this list for long, having matriculated to the majors and projecting to be in the opening day rotation. House missed a huge chunk of 2022 with a Back issue (not something you generally attribute injury-wise to an 18yr old), which presumably explains his curious lack of power in Low-A this year.
• Yasel Antuna, listed at #7. Come. On. Here’s the direct quote summarizing his 2022 season: ‘He showed an improved approach at the plate with plus speed and enough power to be a full-time regular at the highest level.” Really?? Lets break down this nonsense point by point:

“Improved approach at the plate?” Really? He hit a combined .215 this year. Ok, so he walked more. Congratulations; he had a combined .352 OBP this year, which was HIGHER than his slugging percentage.

“plus Speed?” He had 27 SBs this year, more than his career combined. Ok i’ll give him that.

“Enough power to be a Full time regular at the highest level?” He hit 10 homers in 99 High-A games in 2022. By way of comparison, he hit 12 homers in 106 High-A games in 2021. Both of those figures were good for Slugging percentages below .400.

So, what is he? A 6.0″ corner OF with some speed, a crap batting average, and some power. He can’t play CF, he no longer can play the infield. He’s undersized. Why does anyone think this is a major prospect at this point? Hassell, by way of comparison, had an OPS of more than 100 points higher in High-A this year, matched him for both homers and SBs in fewer games, had a BA 70 points higher, plays CF, and is two years younger. Now THATS an of prospect. Maybe that’s not fair, comparing Antuna to the #1 guy in our system … fine. Lets compare him to Jeremy De La Rosa, who was also an OF in Wilmington this year and who is ranked LOWER than Antuna: DLR had a higher combined BA, better OBP, better slugging, just as many homers, just as many SBs … plays CF instead of a corner, and is 3 years younger.

I just don’t get it. Why anyone ranks Antuna at this point is beyond me. Ok, enough on Antuna, moving forward.

• Cole Henry dropped to #12: understandable. He may not ever pitch again.
• Jake Bennett pops in here; he was an interesting one; he was left completely out of BA’s mid-season post-trade/post-draft rankings for this team, despite being our 2nd round pick in 2022. I’m super curious to see what he does in 2022, presumably in Low-A.
• Brenner Cox was a polarizing draft pick last year … we have not had good success overpaying Prep kids in these areas of the draft before. We’ll see how he starts his pro career and hope for some positive figures in early 2022.
• Mitchell Parker gets the last #15 spot. Why isn’t this guy higher? All he did was give the team 24 starts at High-A with 117/67 K/BB ratio in 100 innings and a 2.88 ERA. Perhaps the WHIP is too high (1.43). He’s still a lefty who misses a ton of bats.

Notable names missing out of this top 15:

• Rutledge; Shocker. Our newest “guy who’s now inexplicably on the 40-man too early” doesn’t even make this top 15 list.
• Carillo: man what has happened to this guy? He was ranked as high as 6th in our system upon his acquisition. Now he’s relegated to the bullpen and he can’t find the plate.
• Ferrer and Cronin: new 40-man additions aren’t really top-level prospects, but valuable bullpen arms that typically get plucked in Rule-5.
• Irvin: another who has lost the prospect luster (was once a top 10 guy for us pre-injury).