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Archive for June, 2019

2019 Draft Coverage: Local Draft prospects to keep an eye on

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After a tumultuous college career, where will hess get drafted? Photo via 247sports.

After a tumultuous college career, where will hess get drafted?
Photo via 247sports.

Its never too early to think about draft prospects.  In this case, the first cut of this post was saved in draft post format in June 2017.  Why so early?  Because that’s when we started to see collegiate “all-american” lists come out, and there’s a Freshman all-american designation for players who generally are going to be drafted in the 2019 draft.

We continually augment this post over the course of years and many posts, finally publishing just before the 2019 draft.  Today, 6/3/19, the day of the 2019 draft, we finally publish.

The College players are mostly drawn from my 2015 Local High School draft coverage, listing guys who were HS seniors in 2015 who went to 3-year programs and who are now draft eligible.  From that time frame, here’s the 2015 pre-season list and then the Post-Draft/post-signing coverage from 2015.  Pop-up guys plus non-MD/VA native players playing at MD/VA colleges are added as they become serious draft prospects.

Major Local College Draft Prospects for 2019

  • Zack Hess, RHP from LSU via Liberty Christian Academy.  was draft-eligible soph in 2018, back to school.  Projecting as 2nd rounder but needs solid 2019.  #46 on d1baseball’s top 50 list Dec18
  • Jake Agnos, LHP from ECU by way of Battlefield HS.  3.22 ERA in 10 mid-week/Sunday starts and 16 games overall.  #54 on d1baseball’s early 2019 list.  ECU’s friday night starter all year, finished with an 8-inning dominant regional performance and may get super regional appearance if ECU advances.
  • Tyler Blohm, LHP from UMaryland by way of Spalding HS.  2017 Freshman all-american. #40 on d1baseball’s early 2019 list.
  • Garrett Stallings, RHP from Tennessee by way of Grassfield HS in Chesapeake.  20 games, 8 starts as a freshman.  Struggled in the CWS regional, getting battered by Duke en route to a loss.
  • Conor Grammes, 3B/RHP from Xavier by way of McLean HS.  Shot up to #30 o d1baseball’s Dec 18 top 50 list.
  • Noah Song, Sr. RHP from Navy by way of Claremont, CA.  Has really shot-up on draft boards to be a 1st-2nd rounder with ridiculous K/9 rates, but what kind of Navy commitment does he have?
  • Nick Morreale, RHP from Georgetown.  #85 on d1baseball’s Sept 2018 list.  Mentioned by Jim Callis by name as a DC metro talent to watch for.

Lesser Local College draft eligibles w/ Local Ties

  • Paul Witt, SS from VMI.  d1baseball early 2019 list
  • Nathan Eaton, RHP from VCU.  d1baseball early 2019 list
  • Mac McCarty, RHP (reliever) from VCU: 2nd team pre-season All American from Collegiate Baseball
  • Zach Biggers, 2B from Navy: 2nd team pre-season All American from Collegiate Baseball
  • John Wilson, LHP for ODU: 2017 Freshman all-american.
  • Kevin Kelly, RHP from JMU by way of Paul VI.  2017 Freshman all-american.
  • Vinnie Pasquantino, a 1B from ODU by way of James River HS (Richmond); 2017 Freshman all-american.
  • Spencer Horwitz, a C/1B from Radford by way of St. Paul HS in Timonium, MD:  2017 Freshman all-american.
  • Andre Lipcius: 1B from Tennessee by way of Lafayette HS in Williamsburg, VA.  2017 Freshman all-american, starter/cleanup hitter for U-Tenn at regionals
  • Brandon Raquet, OF from W&M.  2017 Freshman all-american.  Brother of Nats 2017 3rd rounder Nick Raquet.
  • Kyle Battle, OF from ODU by way of Glen Allen.  2017 Freshman all-american.
  • Fox Semones, DH/RHP from JMU by way of Hylton.  2017 Freshman all-american.
  • Jared DiCesare, 3B from George Mason by way of Chantilly HS.  Cape Code league 2018.
  • Logan Driscoll C from George Mason by way of Lake Braddock HS.  Cape Code league 2018.  Mentioned by Jim Callis as a sleeper in the draft as a decent-hitting catcher in a thin position.
  • Wade Strain, RHP from William & Mary by way of Lake Braddock HS.
  • Tanner Morris, SS UVA; long time dominant prep player with decent college career.

DC/MD/VA Local Prep players for 2019

  • Zach Agnos, RHP from Battlefield.  Brother of legendary local player and ECU starter Jake Agnos.   1st team all 6-A North Region 2018 as a junior.  NovaNine as a junior. early commit to ECU (where his brother goes).  1st team VHSL class 6 all-state in 2018 as Junior.  2nd team All-Met 2018 as junior.
  • Brody Mack, 1B/LHP from Potomac.  2nd team all 5A North Region as a sophomore in 2017.  Cardinal District POTY as a Jr 2018.  NovaNine as a junior.  1st team VHSL class 5 all-state in 2018 as Junior.
  • Carson Swank, SS from Riverside.  Dulles District POTY in 2019 as a junior.  Class 4 Region Co-player of the year in 2018 as a junior.  Diamond Elite summer team.  NovaNine as a junior.  Early Yale Commit.  All Met 1st team as junior in 2018
  • Clark Klitenic, LHP from St. Albans (via Bethesda, MD).  IAC POTY, All-Met 1st team as a junior.  Committed to Duke.
  • Tyler Demartino, Inf.  Evoshield Canes Prospect WWBA 2017 championship team.  PG Nationals 2018.  Early commit to West Virginia.  Canes Nat’l team WWBA 2018
  • Cortland Lawson, SS/RHP from Paul VI in Fairfax (by way of Potomac Falls, VA). Evoshield Canes Prospect WWBA 2017 championship team, early commit to Tennessee.  At PG Nationals 2018.  Canes Nat’l team WWBA 2018
  • Michael Bauma, INF from Sherwood HS.  All Met 1st team as junior in 2018.
  • Ryan Terrents, SS Huntington HS.  All-Maryland State by PBR in 2018 as a junior.  Mid-Atlantic Red Sox summer team.  2nd team All-Met 2018 as junior.
  • Brady Pearre, SS/3B from Poolesville HS.  Evoshield Canes Prospect WWBA 2017 championship team, early commit to  High Point.
  • Lyle Miller-Green, RHP at Lake Braddock.  2nd-team all 6A North Region as a sophomore in 2017.  Early commit to Va Tech.   2nd team VHSL class 6 all-state in 2018 as Junior.
  • Ben Vok, RHP from Sherwood (Olney): Montgomery County pitcher of the year as a Jr in 2018.
  • Ethan Lipp, RHP from Madison.  1st team all 6-A North Region 2018 as a junior.  Evoshield Mid-Atlantic.
  • Matt Howat, LHP from Madison.  1st team all 6-A North Region 2018 as a junior.  Marucci Stars summer team.
  • Dylan Wilkinson, SS from Fairfax.  1st team Class 6 Occoquan all-region as a junior.  MVP Royals summer team.
  • Magnus Ellerts, RHP from Woodbridge.   1st team Class 6 Occoquan all-region as a junior.
  • Luke Burner, ? position from the Highland School (Warrenton): All VISAA-II state 2018.
  • Nick Lockhart, RHP Woodgrove HS.  2018 All Region 4C selection.  Early Virginia Tech signing.
  • Michael Tolson, RHP Stafford HS.  2018 All Region 5C selection.  2018 Commonwealth district POTY as junior.  ODU commit.
  • Dylan Weber, LHP Dominion HS.  2nd team all Region 4C 2018 as junior.
  • Thomas Keehn, SS DeMatha HS.  PG Nationals 2018, early commit to Duke.

Extended DC/MD/VA Prep players (outside DC Area) on the radar.

  • Jamari Baylor, SS Benedictine HS (Glen Allen).  At PG Nationals 2018.  Top 100 d1baseball ranked player in VA.  Committed to JuCo.  VA Gatorade POTY 2019.
  • Zack Beach, 1B/DH from Atlee HS in Mechanicsburg.   2nd team all 5A North Region as a sophomore in 2017.  Early commit to Coastal Carolina.
  • Jamison Covey, RHP from Colonial Richardson HS in Preston MD.  Early commit to Ole Miss.  On the stacked East Coast Sox Select WWBA 17 team.
  • Griffen Agee, 1b/LHP from Jefferson Forest HS in Forest (Lynchburg), VA.  Early commit to UVA.  Evoshield Canes Prospect WWBA 2017 championship team.  PG Nationals 2018.  Canes Nat’l team WWBA 2018
  • Marcus Lee Sang, OF from Northern HS in Olney, MD.  2018 Area Code Games
  • Geo Rivera, RHP Lafayette HS in Williamsburg.  2018 Area code games.
  • Jimmy Starnes,  RHP IMG Academy (by way of Richmond VA).  PG Nationals 2018, early commit to West Virginia.
  • Casey Greene, 3B/RHP from Benedictine HS in Chesterfield, VA.  Evoshield Canes Prospect WWBA 2017 championship team.  Early commit to Coastal Carolina.  Canes Nat’l team WWBA 2018
  • Liam Deegan, 3B from Mils Godwin  HS in Richmond.  Early commit to UVA, top prospect PBF 2018.  At PG Nationals 2018.
  • Carson Jones, LHP from Deep Run HS.  Early commit to UVA, top prospect PBF 2018.
  • Reece Early, of/RHP from Gerstell Academy in Reistertown, MD.  Evoshield Canes Prospect WWBA 2017 championship team.
  • Drew Harlow, SS/RHP from Halifax County HS in Halifax, VA.  Evoshield Canes Prospect WWBA 2017 championship team.
  • Jacob Williams, 1B from Harrisonburg HS.  2nd team all 4A West Region as a sophomore in 2017.
  • Austin Custer, SS/RHP from Bassett HS in Fieldale, VA.  2nd team all 4A West Region as a sophomore in 2017.  Dirtbags summer team.
  • Ricky Jones, OF/CF from Hopewell HS.  1st team all 3A West as a sophomore in 2017.  1st team VHSL Class 3 all-state 2018 as junior.
  • Dylan Young, RHP from Chesapeake-AA.  All Anne-Arundel county in 2017 as sophomore.
  • Garrett Stanard, 2B from Arundel HS.  All Anne-Arundel county in 2017 as sophomore.
  • Justin Starke C from Prince George HS.  2nd team VHSL All state 5A as sophomore in 2017.  2nd Team All-Richmond 2017 as sophomore.  Early commit to VMI.
  • Bryce Frederick, SS Dulaney HS.  All-Maryland State by PBR in 2018 as a junior.
  • Buck Forbes, RHP for Prince George HS.  Pitched 1-hit shutout in 2018 state title game as junior.  1st team VHSL class 5 all-state in 2018 as Junior.
  • Andrew Potojecki, RHP for Chatham HS.  1st team VHSL All State Class 2 2018 as a junior.  Dirtbags  WWBA 2018 team, early commit to Longwood.
  • Justin Lewis, 1B for Virginia HS.  1st team VHSL All State Class 2 2018 as a junior.
  • Pell Collins, 2B for LCA.  1st team VHSK All State Class 4 2018 as a junior.
  • Emmanuel Johnson, OF for LCA.    1st team VHSK All State Class 4 2018 as a junior.
  • Brooks Mazey, 2B Deep Run HS. 1st team VHSL class 5 all-state in 2018 as Junior.
  • Ahmaad Goldson, Util Menchville HS.  1st team VHSL class 5 all-state in 2018 as Junior.
  • Ethan Iannuzzi, OF Cosby.   1st team VHSL class 6 all-state in 2018 as Junior.
  • Zane Eggleston, RHP Manchester.  2nd team VHSL class 6 all-state in 2018 as Junior.
  • Tanner Barrs, RHP Abingdon HS.  1st team VHSL Class 3 all-state 2018 as junior.

Sources used

2019 Draft coverage; Mock Draft mania plus my projected top-5 and Nats picks

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mlbdraft2019

I began this post the day after the 2018 draft, when the first “way too early” mock draft came out on MLBpipeline.  So its exactly 364 days in the making.

For a preview of the names you see below, see a previous post that talks about all the marquee names with some stats:

2019 Draft coverage; Overview of top Draft prospects


 

Todd Boss’ Mock draft top-5 prediction?

My top 5 prediction: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Bleday, Greene

Who are the Nats going to take at #17:

So, looking at all of the mock drafts, and listening/reading your typical draft pundits, here’s some information on this year’s draft:

  • Its a relatively weak draft compared to recent memory.
  • Its very weak on college pitching
  • Its thus heavier on college and prep bats, which most pundits are predicting will at be at least the top 6 picks.

Meanwhile … the Nats are generally a team that very heavily focuses on college pitching in drafts, and who generally looks for “famous” names in the 1st who may have dropped slightly due to signability or injury, looking for “value.”  This was the case with Mason Denaburg in 2018 (was a top 10 prospect, had biceps issue, dropped), the case with Seth Romero (was a top prospect before getting kicked off his college team in 2017),  the case with Jesus Luzardo in 2016 (he had TJ surgery ahead of the draft), definitely the case with Erick Fedde in 2014, etc.  So, it should be an interesting draft to follow.

The Nats have the

  • #17 pick in the first draft
  • lost their 2nd rounder to the Patrick Corbin signing (would have been 57th overall)
  • 94th in the 3rd round
  • 124th in the 4th round
  • 139th in the 4th round comp round (compensation for Bryce Harper)
  • Lost their 5th rounder, also for the Corbin signing (they lost 2 picks thanks to screwing up the salary cap in 2018 for the 2nd year running)
  • then pick 214th and every 30 picks there after.

The lack of a 2nd rounder really means they have to hit on their 1st this year.  So, who do Mock drafters generally have the Nats picking?  You generally see draft pundits with the Nats picking one of these names:

  • Shea Langeliers, C from Baylor.  This fits the Nats M.O. of picking better players who have dropped slightly in the 1st due to injury.  Langeliers broke a hamate bone this year, which has hampered his offense and dropped him.  This would be a classic Nats 1st round pick.
  • Matt Allan, prep RHSP from Florida HS, rated as one of the best (if not the best) prep RHP in the draft.  Committed to Florida, apparently has huge bonus demands.
  • Josh Jung, 3B from Texas Tech who has been on draft radars for a while.

I’ve also seen some mocks with the Nats taking George Kirby, Kameron Misner, Brett Bady.  But i’d bet its one of these three above names.

My prediction: Every mock draft pundit for the last week or so has the Nats taking Allan and spending the money.  Its looking more and more that the type of college bat that the Nats would normally take (Langeliers, Jung, Misner) are going to be gone … so i’m betting the Nats stake the entire 2019 draft on Allan.

 


Here’s the Mock draft collection.  I’ve generally listed their top-5 and then who they project the Nats to take at #17 (if they project out that far).  this year i’m ordering them Chronologically as rec’d instead of grouping by pundit…. this should let us see kind of an evolution of the top of the draft.

  • MLBPipeline (Jonathan Mayo): way-too-early-Mock-Draft June 2018: Witt, Rutschman, Barco, Langeliers, Greene.
  • MLBPipeline (Jonathan Mayo): Dec 2018 Mock Draft: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Jung, Stinson.
  • Baseball America (Carlos Collazo): Apr 2019 Mock v4.0: Rutschman, Vaughn, Witt, Abrams, Greene.  Nats on Shea Langeliers, C from Baylor and #2 C prospect in the draft
  • Baseball America (Carlos Collazo): 5/2/19 Mock v5.0: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn,  Greene, Bleday.  Nats on Quinn Priester, prep RHP from Cary, IL.  Helium arm.
  • Fangraphs (Kiley McDaniel): Apr 2019 v1.0: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Abrams, Greene.
  • MLBPipeline (Jim Callis): 5/3/19 mock draft: Rutschman, Witt, Abrams, Vaughn, Greene.  Nats on George Kirby, rhp from Elon.
  • 20/80 baseball (Nick Faleris/Burke Granger); 5/5/2019 Mock draft: Rutchman, Witt, Vaughn, Abrams, Bleday.  Nats on Matt Allan, prep RHSP from Florida HS.
  • CBSsports (Mike Axisa) Mock Draft 5/6/19: Rutschman, Witt, Bleday, Greene, Abrams.  Nats on Kameron Misner, toolsy Missouri OF.
  • ESPN (Keith Law) May 2019 v1.0:  Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Bleday, Greene.  Nats on Langeliers, under the theory that he’s a -pick who has dropped due to his hand injury.
  • TheBigLead.com (Ryan Phillips) v1.0 May 2019: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Abrams, Bleday.  Only projecting top 10.
  • Fangraphs (Eric Longenhagen/Kiley McDaniel): v2.0 May 2019 mockRutschman, Witt, Abrams, Bleday, Vaughn.  Nats on Langeliers.
  • TheBigLead.com (Ryan Phillipsv2.0 May 2019: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Abrams, Bleday.   No change in top 5 since his previous mock.   Nats on Langeliers like everyone else.
  • BleacherReport.com (Joel Reuter) May 2019 mock: Rutschman, Witt, Abrams, Vaughn, Greene.  Nats on Priester.
  • Fangraphs (Kiley McDaniel/Eric Longenhagen): 5/14/19 Mock v2.0: Rutschman, Witt, Abrams, Bleday, Vaughn.  Nats on Langeliers.
  • MLBPipeline (Jim Callis): 5/17/19 mock draft: Rutschman, Witt, Abrams, Bleday, Vaughn.  Nats on Jung.
  • MyMLBDraft.com (? pundit): 5/22/19 Mock draft: Rutchman, Witt, Vaughn, Abrahms, Greene.  Nats on Allan.
  • MLBPipeline (Jonathan Mayo): 5/23/19 Mock draft: Rutschman, Witt, Abrams, Vaughn, Greene.  Nats on Josh Jung, 3B from Texas Tech who has been on draft radars for a while.
  • PerfectGame.org (Brian Sakowski): Mock Draft v3.0 5/23/19: Rutschman, Witt, Abrahms, Bleday, Vaughn.  Nats on Kirby.
  • Baseball America (Carlos Collazo): 5/24/19 Mock Draft: Rutschman, Witt, Abrams, Bleday, Vaughn.  Nats on Brett Bady, prep 3B from Texas HS.
  • ESPN (Keith LawMay 28 2019 v2.0: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Bleday, Greene.  Nats on Allan.
  • BleacherReport.com (Joel ReuterMay 2019 mock v2.0: Rutschman, Witt, Bleday, Vaughn, Abrams.  Nats on Jung.
  • Video Baseball Scout (Benjamin Chase): May v8.9 mock draft: Rutschman, Witt, Abrams, Bleday, Vaughn.  Nats on Gunnar Henderson, prep SS from Alabama HS.
  • The Athletic Staff (beat reporters collectively): May 2019 Mock Draft: Rutchman, Witt, Abrams, Vaughn, Bleday.  Nats on Misner.
  • Fangraphs (Kiley McDaniel/Eric Longenhagen): 5/29/19 Mock v3.0: Rutschman, Witt, Abrams, Bleday, Vaughn.  Nats still on Langeliers.
  • The Athletic (Melissa Lockhard) 5/29/19 Mock Draft: Rutchman, Witt, Vaughn, Abrams, Greene.  Nats on Allan.
  • Baseball America (Carlos Collazo): 5/31/19 Mock Draft v9.0; Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Bleday, Greene.  Nats on Zack Thompson, LHP from Kentucky with some medical issues.
  • Beyond the Box Score (Daniel Epstein): 6/1/19 Aggregate Mock Draft (an analysis/aggregate of other mocks): Rutschman, Witt, Abrams, Vaughn, Bleday.  Nats on Allan.
  • TheBigLead.com (Ryan Phillipsv3.0 May 2019: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Bleday, Greene.  Nats on Allan.
  • MLBPipeline (Jonathan Mayo): 6/3/19 day-of Mock: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Bleday, Greene.  Nats on Allan.
  • ESPN (Keith Law): 6/3/19 day-of final mock: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Bleday, Greene.  Nats on Allan; it really seems like Allan is going to be the pick here.
  • CBSsports (Mike Axisa) Final Mock Draft 6/3/19: Rutschman, Witt, Abrams, Bleday, Vaughn.  Nats on Allan too.
  • Fangraphs (Kiley McDaniel/Eric Longenhagen): 6/3/19 Morning of Mock v4.0: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Bleday, Greene.  Nats on Allan.
  • TheBigLead.com (Ryan Phillips) 6/3/19 last chance mock: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Bleday, Greene.  Nats on Allan.
  • 20/80 baseball (Nick Faleris); draft day mock 6/3/19: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Bleday, Greene.  Nats on Allan.

 

Mock draft posters from past years who didn’t seem to do one this year.:

  • D1Baseball (Frankie Piliere); took a job with Seattle, no longer at d1baseball.
  • HeroSports.com (Christopher Crawford); moved to nbcsports/roto world, unclear if still doing draft work.
  • MinorleagueBall.com (John Sickels); moved to TheAthletic, site seems dead.
  • SI.com (Jay Jaffe), now with Fangraphs, so probably not doing prospect work anymore.
  • Baseball America (John Manuel): seems to have passed the torch at BA to Reuter.
  • Baseball Draft Report (Rob Ozga); Last post was Sept 2018; out of business?
  • Seedlings to the Stars/Calltothepen.com: main writer left to form Video Baseball Scout.
  • Prospect Digest (Joseph Werner); just draft profiles for 2019, no mocks/ranks.
  • Sporting News: can’t find content.

 

Draft Rankings: these are prospect ranking lists, NOT mock drafts.

Past prospect rankers that have issues this year 2019.

  • Baseball Draft Report (Rob Ozga); Last post was Sept 2018; out of business?
  • Video Baseball Scout; Mocks, no rankings.
  • The Athletic: no content this year.
  • MinorLeagueBall.com Draft Prospect list: didn’t do one this year, just individual profiles.
  • PerfectGame 2019 Draft Rankings database/top 600 players (mostly behind a paywall)

 


ACTUAL TOP 5 DRAFT Results (added after the draft): went almost entirely chalk to latest mocks: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Bleday, Greene.

Actual Nats #17 Pick (added after the draft): Jackson Rutledge, RHP from Texas Juco.  See separate post on him.