Nationals Arm Race

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2016 CWS Super-Regionals recap and CWS field

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"Florida Gators pitcher Dane Dunning throwing from the mound during the first inning. Florida Gators vs Miami Hurricanes. February 22nd, 2015. Gator Country photo by David Bowie. "

Florida Gators pitcher Dane Dunning throwing from the mound during the first inning. Florida Gators vs Miami Hurricanes. February 22nd, 2015. Gator Country photo by David Bowie.

Here’s a recap of our CWS coverage so far for 2016:

Here’s how the super-regionals went down: we’ll look at these regionals in the original order of the top 8 national seeds.  Red indicates the winner.

  • #1 Florida vs #16 Florida State: a rematch of last year’s super-regional and a chance for Florida State to redeem itself after losing all three of their mid-week matchups this year.  In game one, Florida State’s starter Drew Carlton threw a 2-hit shutout and beat Florida’s #3 starter (why did Florida start Alex Faedo?) in game one to put Florida behind the 8-ball.  In game 2, Florida DID start their ace Logan Shore, and he threw 8 innings of 2-hit ball himself to even the series.  In the final, Florida’s 6th overall pick A.J. Puk lasted just 3 2/3s .. but the Nats’ first round pick Dane Dunning threw 4 1/3 shutout ball to help seal an easy 7-0 victory to help Florida become the final team to advance.
  • #2 Louisville vs UC Santa Barbara: This is why they play the games, so to speak.  Highly favored Louisville went down two straight to UC Santa Barbara, losing with their Ace Brendan McKay on day one and when their #2 Drew Harrington handed a 3-run lead to their 1st round closer Zack Burdi in Game 2; Burdi promptly loaded the bases and then gave up a walk-off Grand Slam to a pinch-hitter Sam Cohen who had just one HR this year.  The video is pretty amazing.
  • #3 Miami vs Boston College: Miami’s bats got to BC’s Ace Justin Dunn and then opened up the game late for a 12-7 game one victory.  BC came back to force a decider, but Miami won out to advance.
  • #4 TAMU vs #13 TCU: TCU bashed their way to an 8-2 surprise game 1 victory.  TAMU came back with a comprehensive 7-1 win in game two to force the decider.   TCU’s Brian Howard gave up just 2 hits and one unearned run over 7 innings to solidify a comfortable 5-1 deciding victory and send TCU back to the CWS.
  • #5 Texas Tech vs ECU: ECU jumped out in Game 1 with a five-run 5th to knock out TT’s starter and held on with Matt Bridges striking out 6 of the 8 batters he faced to close out the upset win.  Texas Tech won game two and then destoyed ECU 11-0 in the decider to advance.
  • #6 Mississippi State vs Arizona: Arizona got nearly a complete game shutout of its starter Bobby Dalbec, who threw 8 2/3rds shutout innings before getting lifted with 2-on in the bottom of the 9th.  Arizona’s closer made quick work of the final batter to preserve the game 1 upset.  Game two went to extras, but Arizona got the walkoff run to win 6-5 and advance.
  • Oklahoma State vs #10 South Carolina: Despite not being the “seeded” team, Oklahoma State made quick work of South Carolina in 2 straight to punch a CWS ticket.
  • #8 LSU vs Coastal Carolina: Coastal won a slug-fest 11-8 in game one to put LSU in a precarious position.  Game 2 was closer and had a great finish, with LSU tying it in the top of the 9th and Coastal Carolina getting a walk-off single to win and advance to their first CWS.

My Original Predictions: #1 Florida, #2 Louisville, #3 Miami, #4 TAMU, ECU, #6 Mississippi State, Oklahoma State, #8 LSU

How it turned out: #1 Florida, UC Santa Barbara, #3 Miami, #13 TCU, #5 Texas Tech, Arizona, Oklahoma State, Coastal Carolina


CWS Field and Profiles

Top Bracket:

  • #1 Florida: 2nd Place SEC Eastern Division, 2nd Place SEC tournament.  52-14 overall record, (19-10 in conference).
  • Coastal Carolina: Big South Regular season champ.  Big South post-season champ.  49-16 (21-3).
  • #5 Texas Tech: Big 12 Regular Season champ.  46-18 regular season (19-5).
  • #13 TCU: 3rd place Big 12 regular season, Big 12 conference tourney champion.  47-16 (15-9).

Bottom Bracket

  • Arizona: 4th place Pac12 regular season.  44-21 regular season (16-14).
  • #3 Miami: 1st Place ACC Coastal Division.  2nd Place ACC tournament.  50-12 regular season (21-7).
  • Oklahoma State: 2nd Place Big 12 regular season.  41-20 regular season (16-8).
  • UC Santa Barbara: 3rd place Big West Regular season.  42-18-1 regular season (13-11)

CWS field review by the numbers

  • Just 1 from the SEC (Florida) despite 7 bids
  • Just 1 from the ACC (Miami) despite 10 bids
  • 3 from the Big 12 (Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, TCU) despite only getting 3 bids.
  • 1 from the Pac 12 (Arizona)
  • 2 from elsewhere: UC Santa Barbara from the Big West, Coastal Carolina from Big South

CWS Field thoughts

Two first time CWS participants in UC Santa Barbara and Coastal Carolina.  The return of Arizona (the 2012 champ).  Presumptive favorite Miami (college royalty).  Some Big-12 muscle in a sport dominated by the ACC and SEC.  And the #1 overall seed, who has been favored from day one to win this thing.  A very interesting field.  I’m kind of shocked that Louisville and Texas A&M got upset … but TAMU losing to TCU wasn’t really that much of a shock based on their super regional from last  year.  All three Big12 teams who made the field advance to Omaha; that’s pretty impressive (then again, you really had to squint to find even a 4th team from that conference worth inviting).

In the top half: Despite their struggles getting past Florida State, I don’t see the teams in Florida’s bracket troubling them.   Texas Tech beat TCU 2 of 3 this year at TCU and I see them being the 2nd place team.  Coastal Carolina likely goes 2-and-out in Omaha.  I think it’ll go Florida, Texas Tech, TCU, Coastal.

In the bottom  half, Miami has a pretty clear pathway to an all-Florida CWS final.  I think they’ll handle Arizona in the first while OK State won’t be troubled by UC Santa Barbara.  The bracket goes Miami, OK State, Arizona, UC Santa Barbara.  I’m somewhat wary of picking Miami over Oklahoma State and wouldn’t be shocked if OK State made the final, but for now i’m picking chalk of the two best seeds remaining.

Quick predictions: Florida from the top, Miami from the bottom.  Florida already beat Miami 2 of 3 in Miami this year and will be favored to win 2 of 3 again on a neutral field.

Player Star power in this CWS: By team, here’s the guys to look for either for Nats interest or for overall talent/draft position:

  • Florida: had 8 players taken in the first 10 rounds, including two 1st rounders (6th overall pick A.J. Puk and the Nats 1st round pick Dane Dunning), three 2nd rounders (Ace Logan Shore, MD-native Buddy Reed and slugger Pete Alonso) and their closer Shaun Anderson (3rd rounder and 2013 Nats draft pick).   Just a ton of talent here, which is why they were #1 overall seed and are the presumptive favorites.  Logan Shore was the sole Golden Spikes semi finalist, and was named a finalist for the award this week.
  • Coastal Carolina: 4th rounder Michael Paez is the highest drafted player of 6 taken.  CCU has a couple of players with VA roots (Zack Hopeck from Heritage HS and Keiton Rivers from new 5A state champs Nansemond River) but neither are regular starters.  Closer Austen Kitchen was on the Freshman All-american team.
  • Texas Tech: 10 players taken in the draft, but none before the 8th round.  Nats 12th rounder Hayden Howard is ostensibly the closer and should see some time.  But Texas Tech’s strength is in its  youth: they had two players named Freshmen All-americans this year (Davis Martin and Steven Gingery).
  • TCU: 6 players drafted, none before the 13th round.  But they’re clearly a young team: Starter Dalton Horton, closer Durbin Feltman, OF Josh Watson and perhaps the best player on the team Luken Baker were named to the Freshman All-american team.  Baker was a very highly regarded draft prospect last year but opted for college and has not stopped  hitting since.
  • Arizona: 4th rounder Bobby Dalbec is the highest drafted player this year on AZ’s team.  Ace Nathan Bannister went 10-2 but was just a 28th round pick.
  • Miami: Led by 10th overall pick Zack Collins (a Golden Spikes semi-finalist), Miami had two other 6th rounders and 7 overall picks.
  • Oklahoma State: ten picks in this draft, led by 3rd rounder Tom Hatch and 5th rounder Donnie Walton.  Have a starter Jensen Elliott named Freshman All-American.
  • UC Santa Barbara: 4th rounder Shane Bieber and four other draft picks.

 


College CWS tournament references:

87 Responses to '2016 CWS Super-Regionals recap and CWS field'

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  1. Gotta pull for a UCSB-Coastal Carolina final! A frosh with 26 ABs for the season hits a dagger grand slam off a first-round closer. Team of destiny! (And why would you draft a closer in the first round??? Oh, wait, we did that . . .)

    Funkhouser never even took the mound for Louisville in the super regional.

    Maybe Neuse played against better competition than thought with three Big 12 teams in the CWS.

    KW

    17 Jun 16 at 12:24 pm

  2. Neuse was just named an all american by one of these publications. Sounds like we got a good one.

    Todd Boss

    17 Jun 16 at 12:33 pm

  3. And yet he wasn’t part of the pre-draft hype whatsoever.

    By the way, my closer comment was about Storen, not Dunning. I fully expect them to make Dunning a starter.

    Coastal Carolina is just a couple of miles from Myrtle Beach. The UCSB campus actually juts out into the Pacific. How they ever get anyone to class — or baseball practice — I have no idea!

    KW

    17 Jun 16 at 1:38 pm

  4. Jonathan Mayo. Finally, a sr sign I didn’t get to: Paul Panaccione gets 10K from @Nationals (pick value 304=
    $156,600) @MLBDraft @GCUBaseball top hitter

    Wally

    17 Jun 16 at 4:07 pm

  5. That makes a lot of sense. Picks #s 7 & 9 are also seniors, and #9 in particular is probably $10K at best.

    KW

    17 Jun 16 at 9:31 pm

  6. .@jonathanmayo. @Nationals ink 7th-rder Jacob Noll for $190K (pick 214 value=$198,900). Increased power raised profile. @MLBDraft

    Looks like it’s just down to Neuse

    Wally

    18 Jun 16 at 7:01 pm

  7. @JimCallis. 2nd-rder Sheldon Neuse signs w/@Nationals, $900k (pick 58 = $1,107,000). Oklahoma SS, nice RH swing, 3B profile, to 94 on mound. @MLBDraft

    Wally

    18 Jun 16 at 8:58 pm

  8. Nice to see that they got a little savings on Neuse. Haven’t seen anything yet on Harris, the C in the 9th who I suspect they also want in the $10K range. I imagine that Banks is wanting something above slot. It’s possible that they can’t officially commit to that contract until they have the savings from Dunning signed. We’ll see. I think they’ve pretty much made up the Luzardo over-slot with the other top 10 savings, including $207K from Neuse.

    KW

    19 Jun 16 at 8:19 am

  9. With the big club, it looks like Rivero turned into a pumpkin after midnight (EDT). It would seem that something has to give soon on the bullpen front. Rivero would seem a prime DL candidate. I don’t know who they’d bring up, though; maybe Glover?

    On a positive note, the Mets have lost back to back against the Braves, at home, while starting Harvey and Matz.

    KW

    19 Jun 16 at 8:25 am

  10. Given the way the signings have played out and how readily Dunning says he’ll sign once the CWS is over, I think they are setting up for a couple post 10th round, over slot.

    Agree on Rivero, it looks like he needs a time out for several weeks. The pen in general is going to need to import a couple of arms this summer. Maybe Glover, Gott and even Cole can do it, but I’d wager they want someone proven at the MLB level.

    Wally

    19 Jun 16 at 9:02 am

  11. So, my notes on signings so far seem to indicate how they’ll be paying for Nuzardo. so far they’ve saved more than 500k of the 764k they need to pay his over slot deal. And they havn’t announced two senior signs. If both Noll and Narris sign for 10k like Pannacione signed for, they’ll be well back on the positive side, enough so that they could throw some money at their 11th rounder (juco kid Upshaw) or someone else to get them. Or, as you noted, Banks may want more than his slot thanks to his 1st round pedigree.

    Todd Boss

    19 Jun 16 at 1:04 pm

  12. Rivero’s meltdown; well, its not the first time the bullpen has turned a sure win into a loss. But it does make the next transaction that much easier to make. Solis has earned his slot, so when papelbon comes back, its Rivero down.

    Todd Boss

    19 Jun 16 at 1:08 pm

  13. Gott is on the DL, and has been for a couple of weeks. I assume Rivero still has options, although I think he probably needs a DL rest more than a demotion.

    KW

    19 Jun 16 at 1:47 pm

  14. Checking my handy options guide for 2016 (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Sd2cfT5qRH3bhREW6N4IrKsWTSbA8lPLYKSvBGeNNCU/edit?usp=sharing), why yes Rivero does have an option.

    Here’s the canonical set of relievers in AAA on the 40-man: Gott, Martin, Grace*, de los Santos, Lee*.
    Gott is on the D/L, Martin’s era in AAA is 4.91, de los Santos has 13 walks in 20 innings, Nick Lee has 23 walks in 27 innings in AA. None seem like good alternatives. Now, Matt Grace though? lefty for lefty, a 2.28 ERA in AAA … but just 16 ks in 27 innings. Not really the swing and miss guy you want. So, in reality, no really good options unless we wait for Papelbon to return.

    Todd Boss

    19 Jun 16 at 2:03 pm

  15. Noll signed for almost slot ($190k). Are you also counting the amount that they can go over and pay a tax but not lose a pick? I think that adds close to $400k, so they look to have paid for Luzardo already, assuming that Dunning is no more than slot. If he is less, then that is more for the later guys.

    Wally

    19 Jun 16 at 3:48 pm

  16. I listened to a fangraphs podcast the other day with their new prospects guy, Eric Longenhagen. He said he thought Dunning was going to be the best of all their pitchers, including Puk and Logan Shore.

    Wally

    19 Jun 16 at 6:53 pm

  17. It looks like Hayden Howard had three strong innings for Texas Tech today. He’s their version of Dunning. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Nats convert him to a starter as well.

    I don’t like any of the bullpen options at AAA. I’d be thinking about Glover, Lopez, or Giolito.

    The big club left too many opportunities on the table at SD this week . . . and still picked up a game on the Mets, who got swept at home by the Braves while throwing Harvey, Matz, and deGrom. They’ve now dropped to 3d place, .5 behind the Fish.

    KW

    19 Jun 16 at 8:30 pm

  18. Speaking of Dunning. Here’s his post-season stats so far this year. Including the SEC tournament: 7 appearances, 20 IP, 14 hits, 2 runs, 1 ER, 19/2 K/BB. That’s a 0.45 ERA and a 0.80 whip.

    Yeah. that’s pretty damn solid. Oh one other fun fact; 9 IR and only one scored (on a sac fly).

    Dunning is growing on me big time. He’s “sneaky fast” and the ball is on top of the hitter before they know it but its still 93mph. Great movement, command of multiple pitches. I’m looking at the usage of the pitchers on florida’s roster and i can’t quite understand why Dunning isn’t starting over Puk at this point.

    Todd Boss

    20 Jun 16 at 9:39 am

  19. wally; my little XLS does NOT account for the 5% cushion no. Why the heck did Noll sign for nearly slot?? He was a senior middle infielder from a no name college. That’s a shocker to me. So according to my notes now, with three signings to announce (Dunning, Banks, Harris) they’re still 223k above their budget (without the cushion). Of course, 5% of 7.3M gives them a ton of room before getting a draft pick penalty. Maybe they’re going to just pay the 75% tax and go 5% over budget.

    Todd Boss

    20 Jun 16 at 9:44 am

  20. Todd Boss

    20 Jun 16 at 2:40 pm

  21. Count me as not being terribly worried about them being over their draft allotment unless it costs them a draft pick. The monetary penalty on a couple of hundred K is really peanuts.

    Regarding the bullpen, they have several guys in Martin, Grace and Lee whose 40-man roster spots look shaky right now. De Los Santos shouldn’t have been called up last year as now they’ve blown two option years on a guy who clearly won’t be ready for a while, if at all.

    The good thing is that Lopez has demonstrated that he may indeed be as valuable an arm as Giolito, so they won’t be selling low if he were to be traded this summer. Personally, I’d love to see both of them in the rotation next year, as that would mean a rotation full of guys who can throw in the high 90s, even if it would be all right handed.

    Karl Kolchack

    20 Jun 16 at 4:30 pm

  22. Karl: yeah good point. They’re not going to blow a draft pick to sign anyone remaining, and if they have to pay a few 100k as a penalty so what. Agreed.

    De Los Santos: yup. waste of an option year last year; he had exactly 6 days of service. Classic panic decision by a FO not known for doing dumb things like that.

    I just glanced at the rotation stats and Gio’s delta between FIP and ERA is three quarter of a point. Its huge. His fip is better than Ross’ or Scherzers right now; just unlucky on the mound. Giolito, Lopez or Voth need an injury to get to the MLB roster and it may not happen.

    Todd Boss

    20 Jun 16 at 4:54 pm

  23. Yes, the Nats do seem to have a fair amount of dead weight on the 40-man right now, don’t they? I questioned the de los Santos addition at the time, as well as adding Nick Lee before the Rule 5 draft. Now guys who are producing in similar roles, including Koda Glover and even Bryan Harper, are blocked without some DFAing.

    The draft signings to date are impressive. I haven’t seen the numbers for Harris (9th), but I assume he only got $10-15K; he didn’t look like much on paper. My guess is that some overslot money for Banks is tied to Dunning underslot, although Dunning seems to increase his value every time he takes the mound. Howard (12th) also has to clear the CWS. Both of their teams lost their first games, so perhaps we should be rooting against them in the loser’s bracket.

    Perhaps they have also promised a little money to Upshaw (11th) and Williamson (15th) if it materializes. Williamson would be nuts not to sign and have his TJ recovery taken care of. The 30s wild card who intrigues me most is McFarland (36th), but he’s represented by the same guy who has Riley Pint and several others and is probably looking for more cash than the Nats have.

    KW

    20 Jun 16 at 7:08 pm

  24. Glover promoted to AAA today; maybe we’re going to see him next up in the bullpen.

    Todd Boss

    20 Jun 16 at 9:06 pm

  25. That’s one of my predictions that might actually come through: I said in the offseason that Glover would be my darkhorse to make a run all the way to the majors this year. It’s not a slam dunk, though, as he didn’t dominate at AA: 3.22 ERA, 1.21 WHIP — not bad at all, particularly just a year after being drafted and rapidly promoted, but not lights out, either.

    KW

    21 Jun 16 at 5:26 am

  26. Glover: you know there hasn’t been a 2015 draftee to debut in the majors, and now Glover is one of just a handful of known guys to have even made it to AAA. I wonder if he’ll be the first to break through.

    I have a cool XLS tracking “first player from each draft class to debut” that i’ll publish when the first 2015 guy makes it.

    Todd Boss

    21 Jun 16 at 8:55 am

  27. The Nats have yet to promote any player they drafted from 2012 on, which is in part a reflection of just how bad those 2012-2014 drafts were.

    Karl Kolchak

    21 Jun 16 at 12:43 pm

  28. Wow, I hadn’t thought about that, but I believe you’re right. And Rendon is the only one from 2011 who has had any success in the majors; Meyer, Purke, and Taylor Hill have not.

    KW

    21 Jun 16 at 3:11 pm

  29. Okay Todd and KW… You guys give me a hard time for daring to criticize our players. But let’s off the rose colored glasses for second and look closer.

    Harper has been nothing short of a disaster for 8 weeks now. If you watch the games, he looks even worse than his stats. Just bailing towards the 1b dugout on every swing. They have got to fix this guy. But bigger picture, the $500 million contract talk has quieted down quite a bit hasn’t it? How can you give that kind of money to a guy in his prime who slumps for a third of the season for no apparent reason? if you really want to get critical, you could argue that his upcoming all star game appearance will mark 3 out of 4 years he’s made the All Star team but really didn’t deserve it! That’s just reality of Star Power.

    Rendon who I’ve been saying is an average player has had his cold streak and his hot streak, and here he sits at just about what I predicted .. batting in the .250’s with minimal power and slugging stats. Even with his demotion to a less pressure spot in the order. Decent average to slightly above average player but I don’t think we want to pencil him in for the next $100 million prospect blocking contract either. I have to admit his defense has been great. But will that Slugging PCT play at 3b?

    Zimm.. Oh man he’s just guessing at this point. Swung at one that bounced 3 feet in front of the plate last night. Not sure how to make an excuse for him this far into the season now as he’s been healthy and rested.

    What you guys think? I am a fan by the way. And hope all these guys start crushing it. Just gotta call it like I see it. We get enamored with our own players and hype. We don’t need to make excuses for these guys. They’re making many millions to ease any hurt feelings. But if you’re going to be deemed a superstar.. you have to play like it somewhat consistently.

    Marty C

    21 Jun 16 at 3:48 pm

  30. Marty – okay, I’ll bite.

    Harper is the only Nats position player who I would call a “superstar,” and it is very true that so far he has had only one superstar type season. I wouldn’t call his last 8 weeks a “disaster” though. He’s still getting hits and walks , and his presence in the lineup is probably a big reason why Werth has rebounded. Sure he isn’t playing up to expectations, but next to Giancarlo Stanton he’s crushing it (BTW-nothing against Stanton, but wouldn’t it be fantastic if the execrable Jeffry Loria got stuck with an untradeable $300 million dollar contract?). Harper may well be demonstrating that the Nats should wait and not extend him immediately–we’ll see.

    As for Rendon, no need to extend him either. If he doesn’t ever return to 2014 form, he isn’t worth $100+ million, but they still have him for three more years so let’s see how it plays out.

    Zimmerman–what can you say? I’m disappointed that fully healthy he isn’t hitting better. Extending him was probably a mistake financially, but compared to contracts like Tulowitski and Jose Reyes, it isn’t a disaster.

    On the other hand, if even two of these three are hitting well down the stretch the Nats will be unbeatable, at least within the division.

    Karl Kolchack

    21 Jun 16 at 5:04 pm

  31. Nats signed Banks for $500k, plus Armand Upshaw, the JUCO cf from the 11th round that looked like one of the upside plays, and a couple of seniors. Still no Dunning yet due to CWS, and I think we’ll see them with another juco or HS kid.

    Wally

    21 Jun 16 at 6:45 pm

  32. Karl… I agree if two or even one of them really gets it together they will be unbeatable. Murphy, Ramos, and Espi’s power streak really been holding the lineup together so far. (Plus Werth’s clutch) You have to agree even Harper’s positive stats in this stretch are kind of empty. Barely any balls really hard hit or even to the warning track except his few homers in this long stretch. You can just tell he has zero confidence right now, and his swings look worse than even the stats. I keep hoping he mashes his way out of it any day now, but I’ve been saying that for weeks.

    And I don’t care if he runs into one or two like he has where people keep proclaiming his slump over. Until he stops flying open, he won’t fix this. If I were the hitting coach, I would be working day and night to get him straightened out. And I wouldn’t exacerbate the problem by keeping him in there against killer lefties right now. This slump reminds me of the tailspin Andy Pettite put Bryce in a couple years ago. It took him months to get over that one too.

    Schu and Dusty have to get moving on this. Every analyst and even a rank amateur like me can see his current swing faults.

    Rendon I can’t figure out. In 2014 he looked like the kind of keep it simple swing that would stay good and keep getting better to superstar level. But large sample size now, he has regressed. Really bad sign he had to drop so far in the order to get somewhat going.

    Marty C

    21 Jun 16 at 6:53 pm

  33. I watched Dunning pitch the 9th in the CWS. He gave up 1 unearned run but his defense was horrible behind him. Failed to turn 2 double plays, and then made a little league E5, E3 play to allow a guy to score from 1st on a weak grounder to third.

    Despite that, He looked pretty good. Sat 92/93; didn’t see many off speed pitches though. Hoping Florida loses here so he can sign.

    Wally

    21 Jun 16 at 7:44 pm

  34. Karl; Yeah that’s a heck of an indictment on our draft classes. I railed against the 2012 draft, which clearly more and more is a one-person draft (Giolito). 2013 seems like a clear “miss” on Johansen at this point, but I like the promise of Voth, Pivetta (albeit for the Phillies), and Ward. It may just be early for that class. Voth would be up for a lot of teams by now were it not for our SP depth.

    Todd Boss

    21 Jun 16 at 7:52 pm

  35. Marty: Harper criticism is just “well timed.” Prior to the Cubs series you wouldn’t have written that, right? He’s going through a rough patch, probably mentally affected by the Cubs walking treatment and he hasn’t been able to shake it off. Its why you can’t really pass judgement on short sample sizes of a few weeks yay or nay.

    Rendon: maybe he’s like Zimmerman; he has one 5-win season in him and then nothing else. I dunno. But he’s still a positive WAR player.

    Btw Marty … speaking of short sample sizes, how about your boy Espinosa?? He’s on fire! :-)

    Todd Boss

    21 Jun 16 at 7:55 pm

  36. Wally: I can NOT believe Banks signed for $500k wow. That’s a fantastic steal for this ballclub. Banks was 1st round talent before this season. Mark this day; he’ll be a big leaguer.

    Todd Boss

    21 Jun 16 at 7:57 pm

  37. Well, we got our wish: Dunning and Florida lost this afternoon, so hopefully the Nats have a rep down there to sign him and get him a plane ticket to Vermont.

    Todd Boss

    21 Jun 16 at 8:08 pm

  38. Gators GONE, so Dunning should be able to sign soon. Howard gave up two runs for Texas Tech in the win over FLA. FLA and MIA went O-for-Omaha.

    I’m also psyched about the Banks signing. He apparently had a wrist injury that got less attention than the cyst removal on his back but likely had more to do with his down season. Yes, I thought Banks would be holding out for at least $600-800K. Time for him to get to Auburn and start raking.

    KW

    21 Jun 16 at 8:12 pm

  39. On the 2013 draft, I’m not all that high on Ward, even with his recent power surge. He’s on pace to strike out 130 times this year, which would be more Ks at Potomac than Tyler Moore had there in his breakout year. In fairness, Ward walks more often, but Moore had more raw power. Meanwhile, Pivetta probably profiles as a reliever, and Voth as a 4/5 type starter. Overall, not a total disaster but hardly a rousing success if that is how it plays out.

    It just seemed that when the new bonus system came in after 2011 and kept them from spending what they wanted they had no idea how to strategize. That has obviously changed dramatically the past two drafts. It really makes more sense if you don’t have a top 10 pick to spread the money around and maximize your chances of selecting several useful MLB players rather than essentially betting on one and having that guy fail.

    Relatedly, it was just one start, but the HS kid they drafted last year in the 34th round, lefty Tyler Watson, was lights out in his first start at Auburn and sports a nifty 0.49 ERA with 23 Ks in his first 18.1 professional innings. If he keeps it up, he’ll have been a genuine steal for just $400K in bonus money.

    Karl Kolchack

    21 Jun 16 at 8:22 pm

  40. Todd…. I expect the pattern to hold and for Harp, Zimm and Rendon to have great games immediately following my blistering critiques! ha ha

    Yeah I will give Danny credit for this hot streak and with power. Will be interesting to see if it’s a blip or a fundamental turnaround for him.

    Harper btw is not short sample size. He was ice cold even before the Cub’s series if you check. So this is concerning as pre 2015 Harper had some very long brutal slumps as well. Why are you guys afraid to admit when a player is slumping horribly? It’s a reality that would scare the hell out of me as an owner to pay any player hundreds of millions of dollars.

    but here’s the thing… I love these draft posts and details and I love following these prospects. Some like Turner deserve the same chance that a Desmond or Espi got to make it. They weren’t nearly as accomplished when they got called up. These guys work hard too and deserve a shot. Crazy how they treat some of these guys. Call Turner up last year and don’t play him. This year he goes 3 for 3 and then doesn’t play next games. Instead of giving a shot or hope to our prospects, we dull up the roster. Even when it works out like a Drew or Robinson, there is a price. Now people forget about Espi’s 3 year cold streak and hop on his bandwagon after a few good weeks and dismiss our top prospect who only went 3 for 3 in his call up. These guys get stale being stuck so long. Guys like Difo just lost hope I bet and are playing like it. Trade them when they have value or use some youth in the roster instead of the old Vets. Management is stubborn and plays guys through horrible slumps. That is the space needed to get guys like Turner on the roster. He could play 3 days a week and sit Zimm, Rendon, and Espi one day a week each when they are slumping. Solis was stuck behind freaking Belisle? Solis saved our bullpen. Voth could have been the long man- starter in waiting. Perfect spot for a rookie. They are rarely in the game with a lead. Use your minor league system for the guys who deserve it? What’s the worst that could happen? Yeah they could slump for weeks at a time like everybody else.

    Marty C

    21 Jun 16 at 8:30 pm

  41. Marty, if I had the answers, the Nats would be paying me more than the nothing they’re paying me now! And yet the Nats are still 4th in the NL in runs, with the unreal Cubs and the mile-high Rockies as two of the clubs ahead of them. So the team collectively has been more than the sum of its parts.

    That overall productivity, and the team success, has to help the guys who are struggling not press too hard. For the team to have such a spurt while Bryce has struggled is really encouraging. Yes, Bryce looks pretty lost at times, and yet his OBP is still .404 — higher than Murph’s, whose average is .101 points ahead of Harper’s. Bryce’s BABIP is .107 behind Murphy’s, a sign that things will even out, for both of them.

    Murphy and Ramos are having “career years,” and Espinosa is pretty close in some respects, at least power-wise. They’re definitely helping balance the equation, although Ramos and Espinosa are bound for regression. I’ve given up trying to figure out who the “real” Rendon is, but he’s still on pace for about 5 WAR, so he’s not the bottom of the barrel by any means. I don’t know what the answer is with Zim, other than that he’s still owed a truckload of money for a lot of years.

    The team isn’t going to look at replacing Schu while it’s winning and fourth in runs. I was surprised he was retained this year, though (D-Back secret handshake). I also thought Dusty would bring a little more to coaching the hitters. We’ll see.

    KW

    21 Jun 16 at 8:31 pm

  42. Karl, I was surprised that Watson didn’t get more “prospect” notice after what he did in the GCL last year. He’s 6’5″ and only 19 so could fill out to be a monster. I’m higher on him than their other HS “bonus baby” last year, Perkins. It will be interesting to see how both of them stand up at Auburn as the college kids start to report to the league.

    KW

    21 Jun 16 at 8:40 pm

  43. Harper has certainly struggled for a prolonged period now. It’s mainly his power that has fallen off quite a bit, and I agree that he also doesn’t look good at the plate. Pulling off many pitches. But he has gone through stretches like this before, and I have very little concern that he won’t snap out of it again. Marty – are you saying something different? Do you not think he’ll be a top 10 hitter by Season’s end?

    As for the rest of the team, they’re falling into the predictable pattern of the last few years, namely that they do well against mediocre and bad pitching and struggle against good pitching. So their overall offensive stats look fine but you never quite have confidence in them when it counts. I had hoped that the addition of high contact guys like Revere and Murphy, plus a return to form by Rendon, would balance that out somewhat but it hasn’t really happened. But how many teams consistently hit well against elite pitching? It’s very rare. It’s actually kind of just math – they’re elite because almost no one does well against them.

    I’m ok with the offense. I don’t think it really has a place to upgrade, and like him or not, Espy is looking like a glue guy this year. Turner is going to need to play all over to get playing time this year. I’d look to improve their strength (pitching) by adding two quality pen guys, and then bring up Glover and Lopez toward the end of the year, and look to win with pitching, defense and just enough hitting.

    Wally

    21 Jun 16 at 10:01 pm

  44. And as for playing the bulk of the kids right now, I just don’t think it’s feasible to throw a lot of them directly into a pennant race on a team with high expectations. I don’t mind a few rookie bullpen guys so long as you start them off in low leverage situations ( a big problem for Treinen last year was that he was almost immediately put into 7th/8th inning situations). But I don’t see how Voth or anyone else could provide more value than Petit is as long man. Especially when considering that because he is older, they don’t worry about killing his arm like they would with a kid like Voth.

    Wally

    21 Jun 16 at 10:09 pm

  45. Ok, last draft question: what is Armand Upshaw’s profile? I can’t find any info on him

    Wally

    21 Jun 16 at 10:13 pm

  46. Ha! Harper homers to LF

    Wally

    21 Jun 16 at 10:17 pm

  47. For me, one of the most exciting things that happened all year in the farm season this year occurred this week: The Nats trotted out starting four pitchers in Auburn who have barely played/registered in the system, all of whom are HS level age, and each one of them shined: Say hello to Tyler Watson, Yonathan Ramirez, McKenzie Mills, and Weston Davis. Three are lefties.

    The case of Ramirez is particularly worth watching. He is 19, LH, and skipped GCL altogether. He pitched 5 scoreless in his first start in the United States.

    The Nats think enough of their starting 5 that Maximo Valerio, who was seemingly the most talented holdover Auburn arm, is pitching long relief. And shining, good news. As is Robbie Dickey, who is one of those examples from above that we figured was headed for bust after last year.

    Auburn is the team to watch right now. The Nats have not yet assigned any of their pitchers, and the talent in the SS is deep, deep. Dunning is coming into a better rotation than he had in Florida. Happy Days.

    Of course, that also means that there will be a pitching washout at Hagerstown to allow the upward mobility.

    forensicane

    22 Jun 16 at 1:02 am

  48. This is yet another example of how our own resources, specifically Byron Kerr when he talks to his Nats contacts and writes about it, are far better than what the other pundits bring to the table. Kerr was the first and only person to give a heads up last fall in the instructs that Mills and Davis were the truth and were coming. Davis, tonight, was reportedly a strike throwing beast.

    forensicane

    22 Jun 16 at 1:09 am

  49. Upshaw:

    http://thefcsaasports.com/sports/bsb/2015-16/players/armondupshaw1oje

    He had 33 SBs and only 3 HRs. Should have a decent arm since he pitched a little. Perfect Game has him at 6’1″, 190.

    Once again, Dusty tried to squeeze one too many innings out of a starter, not trusting the bullpen (with some reason). The Left Coast is not being kind to us.

    KW

    22 Jun 16 at 5:23 am

  50. Arggh, I went to bed at 2-0 and Roark was cruising. Still, while I haven’t loved Dusty’s use of the staff, it didn’t seem like his pitch count was too high.

    I can’t watch Zim any more, it’s getting bad. They are abusing him with all of these IBBs, and you can just see how furious he is but he can’t deliver, and in fact looks horrible. He’s gripping the bat in a death grip. I’d venture to say that this is the most difficult time in his career. Baseball is merciless though, and I think they have to drop him to 7th to take him out of these situations for a while.

    Wally

    22 Jun 16 at 6:41 am

  51. At least 7th for Zim, maybe 8th. I think we’ll also start seeing more of Clint. They’ve got to, right?

    KW

    22 Jun 16 at 7:47 am

  52. Marty: Short sample size is passing judgement on a player after a month. Harper still has a bWAR of 1.7 for the year (same as Trevor Story). For those killing Anthony Rendon … he’s got a bWAR of 1.6 so far. So basically identical production, albeit in huge spurts of positive and negative for Harper and with general, boring consistency for Rendon.

    But, if we’re passing judgement on short sample size, lets talk about Lucas Giolito. After Keith Law reported that someone had fiddled with his mechanics and then subsequently reverted them, here’s his stat line from his last 5 games: 31ip, 5er. 24hits, 39ks, 8 walks. Thats a 1.45 ERA, a 1.03 whip and an 11.3 K/9 rate. Is that dominant enough for you?

    By way of comparison, since you compared him to Strasburg’s AA performance at the same age, here’s Strasburg’s stats from that year: 1.64 ERA, 0.864 whip, 27/6 K/BB in 22 innings for a 11.05 K/9 rate. Looks pretty darn similar doesn’t it? Except that Giolito’s gone far deeper into games (6+ per outing) versus Strasburg’s 22 ip across 5 starts (less than 4.5 ip/start), so Giolito is generally facing a lineup for the third time and his stats are still this good despite it.

    Thoughts? Are you happier now with Giolito? For me, its clearly cause and effect with the reported mechanical tweaks causing him issues earlier this year. If there was a rotation injury (you know, like if someone slammed a car door on Gio Gonzalez’s hand) i’d want Giolito up the next day.

    Todd Boss

    22 Jun 16 at 9:47 am

  53. KW – for Zim, the more I think about it, they should come up with a phantom injury and put him on the DL for a few weeks. Let him clear his head and then take another crack after the ASB, starting off in the 7th spot.

    I think this is mostly a mental thing

    Wally

    22 Jun 16 at 10:44 am

  54. FWIW, Harper has an fWAR of 2.7, and Rendon’s is 1.8 (more of it from defense than offense). Zim’s is, uh, -0.3. Ouch. Can you go on the DL from the pain from looking at your own stats?

    KW

    22 Jun 16 at 11:03 am

  55. For those who don’t look at Luke’s site, draft picks Sheldon Neuse, Daniel Johnson, and Paul Panaccione debuted with Auburn last night. I was a little surprised to see Johnson sent right to Auburn without a little GCL time because he’s said to be a bit raw. Not only did they send him there, they shifted 2015 bonus baby Perkins to LF so Johnson could play CF. Neuse played 3B and filled up the box score with a triple, a walk, two runs scored, and two RBIs. From everything I’ve read, he looks like the definition of a “gamer” (as is Banks). Panaccione manned SS. I hope Banks will be joining them in Upstate NY soon.

    With Banks taking so little over slot and Harris to 10K I predicted, I have some renewed hope that the Nats may save enough to be able to go after McFarland, who is a Bryce-sized HS OF. We’ll see.

    KW

    22 Jun 16 at 11:11 am

  56. Regarding Giolito, here is one to throw out to the group. If Trout really is made available by the Angels this year, my thought is that with Giolito the Nats would be perfectly positioned to make the trade. Giolito is a potential ace and a hometown LA kid, exactly the type of player who could be a centerpiece in trade package. Add in Robles, Voth and Michael Taylor (who would become expendable with the addition of Trout and could replace him in LA as they rebuild), and that might get it done.

    Considering that the emergence of Reynaldo Lopez (whose June stats are even better than Giolito’s) means the Nats would still have another potential front line starter close to being MLB ready, it’s a deal that could be done without even completely mortgaging the future. And yes, I’ve changed my position on this possibility.

    Karl Kolchack

    22 Jun 16 at 11:56 am

  57. Forget the Nats having much money left over for a McFarland type, as they apparently gave Upshaw $400K. To a guy with 3 HRs? Really? They’ve already got a roll call of CFs with speed but no power: Revere, Bautista, Stevenson, et al. I don’t get that one. They’ve also got a bunch of CFs in the lower minors with Robles, Perkins, and now Daniel Johnson.

    I don’t get that one, at all.

    KW

    22 Jun 16 at 12:49 pm

  58. I’m completely on board for a trade of Giolito, Robles, and whoever else for Trout. The Halos wouldn’t need Turner because they’ve already got Simmons.

    But there aren’t too many other guys out there for whom I’d part with Giolito and/or Robles, and certainly no closer on the planet.

    KW

    22 Jun 16 at 12:53 pm

  59. Karl – I’d do that in a heartbeat. Can’t see it being enough though. Probably more like Giolito, Robles, Rendon and two young guys from Auburn or Hags.

    Can the Nats afford the contract though?

    Wally

    22 Jun 16 at 12:55 pm

  60. The bigger trade question in my mind is this: what kind of trade value does Gio Gonzalez have?

    As frustrating as he is, which is plenty, he is only 30, and still on pace for 3-4 WAR, which would be his 7th straight year over 3 WAR, which suggests not only performance but health, and is under control for 2.5 more years at very reasonable salaries.

    Why wouldn’t that kind of profile bring back Miller? I know that it won’t, but I am having trouble understanding why not. At least, it should only need a prospect added from the bottom half of the top 10.

    Wally

    22 Jun 16 at 1:05 pm

  61. Wally – maybe not Gio for Miller, but how about Gio for Chapman. Two more years of a reasonably cost controlled starter for two months of a closer? Heck, the Yankees should throw in a low level prospect to sweeten that deal.

    Karl Kolchack

    22 Jun 16 at 1:23 pm

  62. I agree, that looks like an overpay by us. I’d probably do it because I’d like to see them beef up the pen this year

    Wally

    22 Jun 16 at 1:27 pm

  63. Three of the Yankee starters have ERAs over 5.00, so they definitely need a starter upgrade. I don’t know. I’ve always been in the don’t-trade-Gio camp, as his controllable contract has been one of the cornerstones on which the “glory years” (if you can call them that) of the Nats have been built. But his H/9 jumped last season and has stayed up. He’s getting hit more, and it’s showing in his ERA. If you look at the numbers of the Nat starters this year, he’s the #5 guy in nearly every significant category. That’s not a good trend, even though he’s only 30.

    If Chapman didn’t have the baggage, I’d be sorely tempted, but if you put Chap and Pap in the same bullpen, what could go wrong, right? Yikes.

    I do think the Nats will trade a starter at some point before next season. They’ve got too many guys who are too close to ready to hold them back.

    KW

    22 Jun 16 at 8:31 pm

  64. For whatever it’s worth in this discussion, Giolito had a not-ready-for-prime-time start last night. Of course the CF with the big club didn’t look ready for prime time, either . . .

    KW

    23 Jun 16 at 12:20 pm

  65. Any news on Dunning or other signs? I’ve given up on McFarland, but either Murdock or Cooper would be interesting adds.

    Can’t really bring myself to discuss the big league team these days

    Wally

    23 Jun 16 at 1:30 pm

  66. Just as soon as I extolled Giolito’s last 5 starts …he has a stinker. Maybe he’s reading the blog too.

    Todd Boss

    23 Jun 16 at 2:59 pm

  67. As soon as Dunning signs, it seems like the Nats are out of the overslot game. By my record keeping, they can’t offer Dunning much more than a shade over $2M or they blow their 5% buffer thanks to the 400k overslot deal on Upshaw.

    So, unless they can get them to sign for $100k, all the non-seniors and prep guys from 11th round on are seemingly off the table.

    Todd Boss

    23 Jun 16 at 3:03 pm

  68. Them paying that much for Upshaw is still head-scratching to me. Forget the guys in the 30s; I’m not going to be happy if they miss out on Howard and Williamson.

    Banks is in the lineup for Auburn tonight . . . wearing #34. It takes a pair to ask for that number in the Nationals’ organization! Tyler Watson is making his second start of the season. There’s going to be some real buzz about him soon.

    KW

    23 Jun 16 at 8:39 pm

  69. It’s always good to wake up and find that the Mets blew yet another one to the Braves.

    Texas Tech got eliminated, without throwing Howard in the final game for some reason. He’s now available to sign . . . if there’s any money left for him.

    Last year’s late-round money is looking good: Tyler Watson is now through 10 innings in two starts at Auburn with no runs allowed and 12 Ks. In fact, he’s yet to allow a run as a pro.

    KW

    24 Jun 16 at 6:41 am

  70. Upshaw: looking him up, he was set to attend Missouri, so the Nats had to buy him out of that. Can’t find practically any scouting on him. But it is important that he was precisely an 11th rounder, which is kind of like the new 6th round in the new CBA, and his $400k bonus is indicative of that. But yeah, its hard to see where there’s any cash for the likes Clarke or Cooper or any HS draftee. Williamson hasn’t officially signed yet but his twitter says “former NC State player.”

    Todd Boss

    24 Jun 16 at 9:46 am

  71. Williamson would miss all of his senior season with TJ anyway, so he’s not likely to improve his draft standing. He’ll have rehab company with Luzardo and Taylor Jordan. Williamson is a 6’3″, 220 LHP who posted a 2.69 ERA at an ACC school, including 10 Ks in 6 IP in a win at UVA this season. That looks like a very promising package to me.

    Then there’s Upshaw, who had 33 SBs but only 3 HRs in his JUCO season. Why is that worth $400K? Daniel Johnson showed the same speed but more power potential. In addition to him, they’ve already got plenty of under-powered speedy OFs like Stevenson, Bautista, and Perkins, as well as guys like Robles and Soto who they’re hoping develop the power they paid big bucks for. (I assume they’re hoping Perkins shows power as well.) I just don’t see need or BPA for the Upshaw pick/overslot. But as always, I hope he proves me wrong!

    KW

    24 Jun 16 at 10:28 am

  72. We still don’t know where Dunning comes in. He could be $500k underslot which opens up room for 1 or 2 more. Although I’m puzzled that he hasn’t signed yet, since it appeared that they had a deal. I hope there isn’t anything wrong in the physical.

    As for whether Upshaw is worth it, I certainly don’t know but the Nats are clearly indicating that they see speed, athleticism and defense becoming even more highly valued in the future

    Wally

    24 Jun 16 at 10:54 am

  73. Wally

    24 Jun 16 at 11:03 am

  74. Lopez; yeah. 90 ks in 68ip in AA. that’s 11.85 K/9. That leads Eastern league by a good amount and he’s still 3rd by K/BB ratio. In fact, i just spun through all three AA leagues and he’s the leading AA starter by K/9 right now.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/minorleaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=5&qual=y&type=1&season=2016&team=0&players=0&sort=6,d

    Todd Boss

    24 Jun 16 at 11:11 am

  75. If you sort by K/9 on that list, Lopez is #1 and Giolito is #3. And Voth in AAA had another strong start last night. Great assets, but something probably needs to give soon in the name of reinforcements.

    KW

    24 Jun 16 at 12:20 pm

  76. but something probably needs to give soon in the name of reinforcements. I don’t follow, what does that mean?

    This may be the time to sell high on Lopez, to be honest. Not a lot of pitchers with his build have long careers as starters, and there are still concerns about how he doesn’t use his lower half, plus Severino, who he is comped to a lot, is struggling. So if he brings back Miller? Have to think hard about it, is all that I am saying.

    I have to be honest, I am usually against trading good prospects for major leaguers, but I am ready to see the Nats take a legitimate crack at a title. And that primarily means adding some shutdown arms to the pen, but could also mean a high quality bat for CF.

    So I’d be open to emptying the bank for a Trout trade, and/or something like Lopez for Miller, or a lesser guy for Chapman. If they spend that kind of prospect talent, my only requirement is that they go for elite talent. I wouldn’t want to take much risk in the acquired players performance.

    And, without trying to restart that Trout conversation, I think it has to start with something like Ross and Rendon, then add a Robles, and then fill it out with a Fedde or Voth plus one or two low level flier types. He’s the best player in baseball, and to acquire him, it has to hurt much more than you imagined.

    Wally

    24 Jun 16 at 1:11 pm

  77. Those are the types of “reinforcements” I have in mind: bolstering the big club for a legit shot at a title. The Nats have big-time pitching prospects at every level and no way to accommodate most of them with the big club. Don’t turn Voth into another Cole, lingering at AAA. Use ’em or move ’em.

    Of course the rub comes when you try to identify where the Nats can/should improve. The back end of the bullpen is obvious, but that’s also where the temptation to overpay may be greatest. Chapman only has half a year left (and is a nut job). Also, the Yanks are still in the race. BOS and BAL are flawed teams at the top of that division.

    The Nats could trade for a generic OF and then figure out where to play him. The problem come when you look for an OF who is producing this year who is on a team that’s not contending. There are Trout and Calhoun from the Angels, Cargo from the Rockies (no thanks), Braun and his bloated contract from the Brewers. I doubt George Springer is available, but if we’re talking Trout-level deals, I guess everyone else on the planet is in play as well. Ellsbury’s contract is even worse than Braun’s. Of that list, the best combo of age and affordability might be Calhoun.

    So I don’t know. I don’t see a totally obvious trade or two that would vault the Nats to a significantly better place than they are now. Well, other than picking up that Trout kid . . .

    KW

    24 Jun 16 at 1:55 pm

  78. Heyman proposes Turner for Chapman:

    http://www.todaysknuckleball.com/inside-baseball-with-jon-heyman/dream-trade-scenarios/

    Hmm, half a season of a volatile reliever for six of an above-average everyday player. That sounds nuts to me.

    KW

    24 Jun 16 at 2:52 pm

  79. that definitely is nuts.

    Would you do Ross for Springer?

    Wally

    24 Jun 16 at 3:50 pm

  80. Hmm, Ross for Springer is an interesting proposition. That’s a pretty even-looking trade on paper. Considering the Nats’ pitching pipeline, I’d probably do it. Springer’s a fair amount like his fellow 2011 draftee Rendon, though, a lot of promise that still hasn’t been fully realized yet.

    I just looked at the Astro roster, though, and it ain’t gonna happen. Their other two OFs, Gomez and Rasmus, are in the last year of their contracts. There was a time a couple of years ago when I really wanted Gomez for the Nats, but he’s struggled in Houston.

    KW

    24 Jun 16 at 8:03 pm

  81. The mention of Gomez makes me wonder what would have happened if his trade to the Mets had gone through, and he had tanked with them, and they hadn’t gotten Cespedes, who went nuts. Ah, what if . . .

    KW

    24 Jun 16 at 8:06 pm

  82. I’d do Ross for Springer in a heartbeat.

    Todd Boss

    25 Jun 16 at 8:32 pm

  83. Rey Lopez: in his last 34 innings, he has struck out 56 batters. That’s some crazy Andrew Miller stats. And he is 22.

    Wally

    25 Jun 16 at 10:30 pm

  84. And I’d trade Gio for a bag of ball, even heavily scuffed ones. Geez.

    Seven losses in a row, and Stras scratched for today . . . The Roadtrip from Hell.

    Lopez has thrown 76.1 innings this year (during which he has 100 Ks). He had 99 IP last year, so figuring no more than a 20-25% jump this season, he’s got about 50 IP left.

    KW

    26 Jun 16 at 7:34 am

  85. Unfortunately, Gio looks like a classic change of scenery candidate. The Nats will be forced to sell low on him, or not renew his contract, but could then see him blossom elsewhere next season.

    KW also touches on a good point–while it is great to see Lopez, Giolito and Voth all now thriving, they are also subject to innings restrictions that would see them each of them shut down in September at a time when the Nats may well really need their help.

    That said, I’d love to see Lopez take the mound instead of Gio against the Reds.

    Karl Kolchack

    26 Jun 16 at 12:14 pm

  86. Now it gets interesting . . . Stras to the DL, so who do the Nats call up to start against the Mets? Voth? Cole? Giolito? Lopez just started on Sat., so he may be out of the equation just because of where he falls in the rotation. Or do they just start Petit and call up a reliever? Glover has been strong in his appearances at AAA. Martin is still on the 40-man (as is Cole). Voth, Giolito, Lopez, or Glover would have to be added, but one is an easy add as they still haven’t moved Taylor Jordan to the 60-day DL.

    FWIW, Giolito was very, very shaky in his last start (5 ER, 7 H, 4 BB). Voth was solid in his last start but shaky in his one before that. Cole . . . is pitching right now, so scratch him (even though he’s pitching great, with 8 Ks through 7 IP). I would think that the speculation is going to center on Voth and Giolito, although Lopez has been stronger in recent starts than Giolito. Maybe bring Lopez up as a swing man and start Petit?

    KW

    26 Jun 16 at 3:03 pm

  87. Lopez is going up to AAA, so I suppose that suggests Voth is the one.

    BTW, Stevenson to Harrisburg, Robles to Potomac. Will be an interesting week.

    forensicane

    27 Jun 16 at 3:44 am

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