Nationals Arm Race

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Wild Card Preview and Prediction

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Snydergaard is the X-factor in the NL Wild Card. Photo tucson.com

Snydergaard is the X-factor in the NL Wild Card. Photo tucson.com

The Nats don’t have to worry about who wins the Wild Card this year, and the Cubs will get a weakened opponent either way.  So lets preview the Wild Card match-ups mostly from a SP stand point and make some knee-jerk predictions.

AL Wild Card: Baltimore @ Toronto: Probably Chris Tillman vs Marcus Stroman

These two AL East foes face off for the 20th and last time this year: Toronto won the season series 10-9 but badly out scored Baltimore while doing it.  Tillman is hittable; the fact that the Orioles are in the playoffs at all with their rotation is a miracle.   Tillman faced Toronto four times; in 22 1/3 innings he gave up 10 earned runs, and he controlled them in the game’s final season.   Stroman also faced his potential opponent four times this year and his numbers are not nearly as good; he got lit up for 7 runs in mid-June, and his start against Toronto last weekend was anything but dominant (4 runs on 9 hits in 7 innings).   The “intangibles” factor doesn’t bode well for Toronto; word has it their clubhouse has lost its focus and professionalism and they may spin out of control at the worst time.  If these teams played 10 times they go 5-5, but I give Baltimore the edge here.

Prediction: Baltimore wins a game that gets away from Toronto to earn a match up with Texas.

 


 

NL Wild Card: San Francisco @ NY Mets.  Madison Bumgarner vs Noah Snydergaard.

Does it get any better than this in terms of a pitching match-up?  The Mets took the season Series 4-3 with a +4 run differential; very even.  Despite that, I like the Mets in this one; they’ve been hot (not that that matters) and the Giants limped into the playoffs.  Bumgarner has two starts against the Mets this year: in New  York he shut them down early, but then in SF later on he got hit.  Snydergaard has also faced SF twice this year; in New York in early May he too got lit up by the Giants, but then allowed just 2 hits in 8 innings against them in August in SF.  Plus, thanks to an early clinch the Mets didn’t have to use Snydergaard in their weekend series, so he’ll have more than a week’s rest heading into the game .. which is good because he’s thrown a ton of innings and his splits with a large amount of rest are crazy good; 1.92 ERA.

Prediction: Mets win a one run game and advance to face the Cubs.

 

Written by Todd Boss

October 4th, 2016 at 1:01 pm

15 Responses to 'Wild Card Preview and Prediction'

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  1. Moving my comments from the previous post. I’ll add that Todd has actually looked up more details than I have, and has come to a different conclusion about both games!

    AL: Looks like a beer-league softball matchup to me, probably to be ended by an epic bat flip by some large, slow human. For me, this game comes down to my hatred of all things Angelos, so I’m all in for the Jays. The winner of this game will have a good shot against the Rangers, who were an insane +13 wins on the luck (Pythagorean) scale with their run differential of only +8. They “should” have been 82-80.

    NL: Rule #1: Never pick against the Giants in the playoffs. Rule #2: Never pick against Maddy Bum in the playoffs. Rule #3: I don’t like the Mets or Collins. Rule #4: I want a team to win that has a chance against the Insufferable Cubs. But, but, but . . . Thor has been better down the stretch (aside from a strafing by the Braves) than Bum has. And the Mets have a better bullpen and much better closer than the G-men do. And the Giants have nothing like Cespedes. But I’ll stick with Rules 1-4 and pick the Giants.

    KW

    4 Oct 16 at 2:06 pm

  2. I noticed that. 🙂 I think in reality both WC games are coin flips. You can make good arguments for both sides. Do we really think Madison Bumgarner is losing a post-season game? Hard to make a cogent argument against him.

    Todd Boss

    4 Oct 16 at 2:32 pm

  3. The Nats might not have many believers out there, but here’s one, and he knows the biz better than 99% of the others:

    http://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/10/3/13153678/2016-mlb-post-season-predictions

    KW

    4 Oct 16 at 8:38 pm

  4. A couple of the ESPN writers picked the Nats too. Hey, you never know until you play the games right?

    Todd Boss

    4 Oct 16 at 8:40 pm

  5. Jays win on small bat flip, but definitely by a large human. Buck channels Matt Williams and saves his closer to close. Britton will be very fresh . . . since he’s not pitching again until he spring.

    KW

    5 Oct 16 at 5:12 am

  6. I love walkoffs. Encarnacion *destroyed* that ball. Buck Showalter is a dinosaur, and his dinosaur strategy last night of getting beat with his 5th starter and his 5.44 ERA on the mound instead of his record-setting closer should get him fired. Stupid, stupid.

    Todd Boss

    5 Oct 16 at 8:46 am

  7. Interesting to me that Buck did not have any success in Baltimore until Duquette showed up. Duquette gets there and they instantly transform from one of the very worst teams in baseball to a multi year playoff team. That guy is good, and with a limited budget steals MVP type seasons from Nelson Cruz and Trumbo.

    Marty C

    5 Oct 16 at 12:26 pm

  8. Four straight AL home run crown winners in Baltimore now with 3 different sluggers. Definitely agree that Duquette knows how to acquire the players he needs to build an offense.

    Showalter deserves all due credit for reaching the playoffs with that pitching roster … but man how do you lose a game without pitching your best reliever? Especially with the heart of Toronto’s order up in the 11th?

    Todd Boss

    5 Oct 16 at 12:55 pm

  9. Buck has now lost THREE playoffs on walk-offs due to bullpen issues. Managers in DC only seem to get one of those . . .

    As for Duquette’s roster, keep in mind that the Oriole payroll this season was around $20M MORE than the Nats’. They can do that, of course, by withholding $60M+ each year from their neighbor with the much larger TV market because, um, um, why exactly?

    KW

    5 Oct 16 at 1:09 pm

  10. Buck had what we in these parts call a “Matt Williams moment.” I wonder if John Gibbons turned to his fellow coaches and said “he just gave us this game.”

    John C.

    5 Oct 16 at 1:22 pm

  11. May have to find video of the look on Britton’s face when hte walkoff was hit. Must have been awesome.

    Todd Boss

    5 Oct 16 at 2:17 pm

  12. Wieters’s reaction is dramatic enough. I’m not sure the ball was out of the infield before Wieters tossed his head in disgust, turned, and started walking away.

    John C.

    5 Oct 16 at 2:41 pm

  13. I could not believe Jimenez was even warming up.

    I can’t give Encarnacion much credit for crushing that because everyone who did and would have come up against Jimenez was crushing it. It was like soft toss batting practice against him.

    Showalter blew it 100%. When Jimenez is going bad he is worst in the league bad, and you could tell he didn’t have it last night on the first hitter.

    Marty C

    5 Oct 16 at 3:28 pm

  14. Never bet against the Giants in the playoffs. Never bet against the Mad Bum in the playoffs. And boy, was it fun to see Familia have to stand there and eat it. Hmm, maybe using your closer in a tie game is overrated??? (I’m kidding; it was the right call. He just didn’t get it done. But you go down with your best guy on the bump, not your 5th starter.)

    KW

    6 Oct 16 at 5:15 am

  15. Great game to watch. New posted on our lineup versus Kershaw.

    Todd Boss

    6 Oct 16 at 10:03 am

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