The third of the “big 3” scouting/prospect ranking shops (BA, Fangraphs, and MLBpipeline) updated and published its system top 30s this week, so following on similar analysis with the other two shops published, I thought i’d put out a review. So, here’s a look at how Mayo/Callis and the team at the MLB Pipeline shop viewed our draft haul, along with some tweaks they made while they had our system cracked open this month.
Click here for the updated list. Top 30+ list is in a table below.
| Rank | First Name | Last Name | Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eli | Willits | SS |
| 2 | Travis | Sykora | RHP (Starter) |
| 3 | Jarlin | Susana | RHP (Starter) |
| 4 | Luke | Dickerson | SS/CF |
| 5 | Alex | Clemmey | LHP (Starter) |
| 6 | Landon | Harmon | RHP |
| 7 | Seaver | King | SS |
| 8 | Ethan | Petry | 1B/OF |
| 9 | Coy | James | SS |
| 10 | Cade | Cavalli | RHP (Starter) |
| 11 | Jake | Bennett | LHP (Starter) |
| 12 | Caleb | Lomavita | C |
| 13 | Robert | Hassell III | OF (CF) |
| 14 | Christian | Franklin | OF (CF) |
| 15 | Angel | Feliz | 3B/SS |
| 16 | Sean Paul | Linan | RHP (Starter) |
| 17 | Miguel | Sime Jr. | RHP |
| 18 | Ronny | Cruz | SS |
| 19 | Eriq | Swan | RHP (Starter) |
| 20 | Yohandy | Morales | 3B |
| 21 | Jackson | Kent | LHP (Starter) |
| 22 | Andry | Lara | RHP (Starter) |
| 23 | Yoel | Tejeda Jr. | RHP (Starter) |
| 24 | Brayan | Cortesia | SS |
| 25 | Daniel | Hernandez | C |
| 26 | Sam | Peterson | OF (CF) |
| 27 | Cristian | Vaquero | OF (CF) |
| 28 | Marconi | German | SS |
| 29 | Randall | Josh | RHP (Starter) |
| 30 | Tyler | Stuart | RHP (Starter) |
| 31 | Victor | Hurtado | OF |
| 32 | Beeter | Clayton | RHP (Reliever) |
| 33 | Cayden | Wallace | 2B/3B |
| 34 | Kevin | Bazzell | C/3B |
| 35 | Kevin | Made | SS |
| 36 | Sir Jamison | Jones | CA |
| 37 | Marquis | Grissom | RHP (Reliever) |
| 38 | Elijah | Green | OF (CF) |
| 39 | Andrew | Pinckney | OF (Corner) |
| 40 | Orlando | Ribalta | RHP (reliever) |
Wait, you said MLB top 30; why are there 40 names on this list? Well, because between the draft and the trade deadline we managed to add 10 players to our top 30 list (plus an 11th who now sits in the mid 30s), and I just tacked on the next 10 players who used to be ranked a month ago to get our “top 40” instead of the top 30.
I suppose the biggest point here is this: we added 10-11 names to our top 30 prospect list within a couple weeks of each other, replacing 7-8 names who we’ve graduated this year, which is great news. Not all of these guys are going to pan out, but they’re ranked higher than the names we used to have in these spots for exactly one reason: they’re better players. If we “hit” on these 2025 draft picks in particular, we may be sitting pretty at some point soon.
The MLBpipeline team didn’t do a ton of fiddling around with the existing players ranked in the top 20 (so, for example, no dropping Sykora based on new TJ news), but in the 20-30 range we did see some movement up or down, which I’ll highlight below.
So, here’s some commentary, mostly on the 10-11 new guys:
- First, a quick overview of the prospects who have graduated this year: in rough order of where they were ranked: Crews, House, Lile, Lord, Henry, Rutledge. And we’re darn close on Hassell and Ribalta. So, not a bad year for “using” the farm system.
- Willits enters our system as its #1 ranked prospect, immediately supplanting both Sykora and Susana. Would I have ranked him above a healthy Sykora? No. But this is pretty consistent with where other shops are putting Willits. Fangraphs had him below both Sykora and Susana, others all have him starting #1 for us.
- Here’s where Willits is being ranked in the entire minors before he plays a game: MLBPipeline #18, Baseball America #30, Fangraphs #44, Keith Law #48. So, yeah this is a big-time prospect.
- 2025 Draftees Harmon (3rd rounder), Petry (2nd rounder) and James (5th rounder) all pop into our top 10 list as a starting point. This is more aggressive than where BA or Fangraphs put these other three guys. The final 2025 draftee getting a $2M bonus was NYC hurler Sime, coming in at #17.
- Our Trade deadline netted us 10 prospects, six of which appear in the top 30-35 range on MLB’s list. The highest ranking is AAA OF Christian Franklin, who comes in at #14 in the system.
- Linan, Cruz, and Swan all pop in to our rankings in the 16-19 range as a starter.
- Kent got moved up roughly 8 spots in the new rankings, a nod to his decent pro debut in High-A.
- The team moved up Brayan Cortesia a few spots to account for his .327/.447/.374 line in the DSL as of this writing.
- Sam Peterson is starting to get some notice, sitting #26 now, but with the influx of players below him this indicates a roughly 12-13 spot rise this year.
- Vaquero’s .914 OPS month has bought him some prospect love: he still sits in the low 20s but has maintained that spot with all the acquisitions.
- A debut for DSL star Marconi German, who has 8 homers and 26 SBs in 47 DSL games this year.
- Tyler Stuart takes a dive; he was #15 a few weeks ago, got TJ surgery, now he’s #30.
In the 31-40 range i just tacked on players who were in the top 30 before all the trade and draft acquisitions, but who are now moved out. Here’s some notables:
- Hurtado now at #31; the $2.8M signing is being outshined by Marconi and Cortesia as he repeats DSL.
- the final trade acquisition who was ranked at all is Better, showing up now at #32 after getting pushed down by our 5 draftees.
- Cayden Wallace, who I ranked #7 pre-season, now is #33 on this list. Phew.
- Kevin Bazzell, who we drafted last year to some promise, has done so little this year that he’s now out of the top 30.
- Elijah Green now sits at #38 on this list.
- Is Andrew Pinckney “only” the 39th best prospect in the system? A 24yr old in his second AAA season, who can play CF and might finish the season with 20 homers? What am I missing here?
Since being recalled, in seven games with plate appearances, Hassell has seven hits, including a homer and four doubles. Perhaps he’s finally the guy we hoped he would be. He’ll turn 24 on Friday.
Pinckney not only likely will end up with 20+ homers at AAA, but 30+ SBs.
I missed the conversation a few posts ago about the OF of the near future. If Wood and Crews are givens (hoping that Crews is that guy), then you have an interesting log jam among Hassell, Lile, Young, Franklin, and Pinckney. You also have some possible trade value for most of them, particularly the first three. Most other than Wood can play CF, although it seems to have been decided that Lile shouldn’t.
KW
12 Aug 25 at 6:48 pm
Four of the top nine haven’t played a lick of pro ball yet, three of them high schoolers. In a couple of years we’ll laugh (or cry) that a few of those were ever rated so highly.
Petry’s best collegiate season was as a freshman, which in theory should temper expectations some. He’s a similar bat-first collegian to Morales, and right now I’d have Morales higher between the two because he’s already made it to AAA. He hasn’t set the world on fire there, but he sure hasn’t flamed out either.
KW
12 Aug 25 at 7:02 pm
This is indeed a rookie ball/A top heavy list. Even a few of the guys who are technically at higher levels, Sykora and Stuart, are basically as good as playing in A ball at the moment, because with the TJ recovery times, they’re also 2+ years away.
I’m also pleasantly surprised to see Dickerson not face any consequences for his highly disappointing season. I’m increasingly realizing that a huge factor in these prospect ratings is how well a player begins their season/career. If that first look by prospect watchers is good, they’ll rocket up the charts, and if it’s bad, they can tumble.
A lot of people were curious to see what all the fuss about this record signing bonus from outside the 1st round was all about, and so many prospect gurus got a glimpse of Dickerson in his first couple weeks. Through his first month, he hit .288/.398/.450 across the FCL and A ball. But by then the reviews were in and Dickerson was the next hot thing.
Fortunately, few seem to have noticed that since June 1st, he’s hitting .181/.267/.265. I wonder if he’d done the opposite? Came out the gates putting up a .530 OPS through his first 2.5 months, then got hot in August?
Well, there’s no need to wonder. We have Yohandy Morales as the perfect counter-example. In 2024, he struggled through the end of May, hitting .238/.315/.346, before missing 2 months to injury. Don’t pay any attention to the fact that after recovering from that hand injury, Morales came back red-hot and hit .324/.416/.482 over the final two months of the season! No, by then the verdict was out. Morales is a disappointment, who can’t hit for power. Nothing he can do in 2025 will change that either. A 114 wRC+ across AA and AAA doesn’t change anything.
I find it super interesting how some guys get locked into certain narratives, and it goes both ways. Morales is a very rare case of a guy just getting dropped quickly and definitively. But more often, you get players, who in spite of all evidence retain their prospect status. Gurus keep dreaming of potential long since lost. Cavalli is the perfect example of this. The guy turns 27 tomorrow (HBD!) and basically didn’t throw a pitch for 2 entire years, came back and was extremely disappointing in AAA, and somehow still retains his spot at #10. An almost identical, but more extreme case is that of Andrew Painter. Gurus were head over heels about him in 2022, after putting together a Sykora-esque season, but got injured and missed two entire seasons. He’s back now, and looks a shell of himself. His strikeout rates are 50% of what they used to be, his control is way worse, and he’s generally just getting hit hard and frequently. His ERA in AAA sits at 5.42 and his FIP is just as bad (5.08), and yet beyond all logic, he sits at #10, in MLB Pipeline’s overall top prospects list, and the 2nd best pitching prospect in the game. I get it, unlike Cavalli, he’s still young (22), and the talent he showed in 21-22 should still be there. But it just doesn’t make sense to not ding him at all for everything that has happened over the past 3 years.
Will
13 Aug 25 at 5:16 am
On Willits, I’m still extremely skeptical. His profile just doesn’t appear to have the upside to warrant inclusion in the top 20-50 overall prospects. However, I’ve found a comp that seems help me make sense of him as a future player: Xander Bogaerts.
I’m talking about Bogaerts as a San Diego Padre and not his time in Boston, because that version of Bogaerts had considerably more power (topping out at 33 HR).
Bogaerts in SD looks like this:
Power: 10-19 HR in 3 seasons
Hit: .274 AVG, BB% around 8%
Run: 13-19 SB/season (though admittedly more average sprint speeds)
Arm: weak; considerably below average
Defense: plus-plus/elite, consistently 80+ percentile for OAA
Altogether, his scouting report would be something like
Power: 45, Hit: 55, Run: 55, Arm: 40, Defense: 65
Here’s Willits’ scouting report from MLB Pipeline:
Power: 45, Hit: 60, Run: 60, Arm: 55, Defense: 55
That seems like a really similar profile. The thing is that Bogaerts’ time in San Diego has merely been “fine” or “good”. A disappointment in comparison to his contract value, but his performance isolated has been worth 9.6 fWAR or 7.5 bWAR in 384 games. Which works out to between 2.9-3.75 WAR/per season.
All that said, it looks like Willits’ future upside is a 3 WAR player. That would be a wildly successful outcome, don’t get me wrong! But with all the risk baked into a 17 year old HSer, there’s a whole bunch of a range of outcomes that are short of that projected profile (also admittedly, he could develop in unexpected ways and exceed it). But it just doesn’t scream 18th best prospect in baseball to me. If we’re going to elevate 17 year olds this high, I’d want to see guys, who if the pieces all fell into place exactly right, would look like 5, 6 or 7 WAR players. I hope that better articulates my skepticism of Willits. But let’s hope he comes out the gates mashing next year, and elevates his already extremely high ratings even further!
Will
13 Aug 25 at 5:36 am
I’m not sure about this logjam of OF prospects. Too many MLB outfielders is a good problem to have. But that’s not the same thing as “too many” AAAA or fourth outfielders. And I’m not sure who would get to start on a good team, apart from Wood. Certainly not Young, and probably not Lile. Likely Crews, although the verdict is not yet in. And the others?
ziggy
13 Aug 25 at 1:23 pm
Just a heads up, for a couple of the players (Josh Randall and Clayton Beeter) the first names and surnames are reversed.
John C.
13 Aug 25 at 1:35 pm
FYI on this same topic, BA just released their updated top 30 to add in Trade acquisitions: they didn’t really update anything else in the ranking but here’s where they put our top trade prospects:
https://www.baseballamerica.com/teams/2013-washington-nationals/prospects/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=updated-top-30-prospects-for-every-team&_bhlid=25c17d5162245f80ee48e87254511ba3def16927
– Linan #13
– Swan #14
– Cruz #19
They did not rank Franklin, Randal, or Beeter. Franklin’s omission is odd, in that MLB pipeline had him as the highest of our acquisitions.
Todd Boss
13 Aug 25 at 1:39 pm
@johnC: On last name/first name … i’m just realizing that the 2025 draft board has the names backwards, which is then corrupting my Last,First format in other documents. Thanks for the observation; will clean up.
Todd Boss
13 Aug 25 at 1:41 pm
@Willits and Dickerson skepticism: totally warranted. With Prep kids and their pro debuts, it’s always useful to consider where they’d be the process had they gone to college. Dickerson had a UVA commitment, so he would have been sitting on UVA’s bench behind both Teel (starting CF) and Becker (starting SS), who hit 1-2 for Virginia. Clemmey just got promoted to frigging AA; he’d be pitching for a wood-bat team in the Cape right now having just finished up his 2nd year at Vanderbilt. Willits reclassified; next year when he’s in Viera if he was playing by the rules he’d be sitting in English class at his high school.
Todd Boss
13 Aug 25 at 1:52 pm
On Dickerson, he’s really old for a 2024 HS draft pick. He turned 20 this week. He’s 11 months younger than our 2025 20th round pick and college junior, Juan Cruz, and would be draft eligible next year if he had opted to go to college.
Dickerson was almost 2 whole years older than Willits was at the time of their respective draftings despite both being technically HS seniors.
Will
13 Aug 25 at 2:21 pm
The clock seems to tick faster on guys who were older when drafted from high school, and sometimes they’re promoted before they can find their footing at a level. Sammy Infante is a recent example, released at age 23 despite a substantial bonus. The contraction of the minors doesn’t help this situation at all.
I’m extremely skeptical of Willits, but I don’t want to beat that horse all winter. I hope he proves me wrong. But even if he does, as Will points out, his best-case ceiling still isn’t very high. It’s one thing to be bullish on him like these lists are, but quite another to put him immediately ahead of guys who have potentially higher ceilings and who have done credible things as pros, including Sykora, Susana, Clemmey, Hassell, and Morales. Clemmey is dominating at A+ in his age-19 season. Since he’s so young, they seem determined not to rush him, which seems like a good thing, particularly as he tries to have more consistent control.
KW
13 Aug 25 at 4:17 pm
Understand skepticism of Willis, since he’s not even 18. However, i’ve been amazed at how high he’s already placing on top 100 lists, AND the initial narrative I had of him as a slap-hitting plus-defensive SS is clearly not true: he’s 6’1″ 18 0 and still growing. His swing from the left side reminds me of Don Mattingly (listed as basically the same size: 6’0″ 175lbs). Mattingly hit 30+ homers for 3 straight seasons and maintained a healthy .325-.350 BA range at the same time, but was better at gap power (led league in doubles 3 straight years in his prime). That seems to be a good goal … all the while playing SS. Also, take a look at the video below: if he was a scrappy middle infielder type with good foot speed, you’d expect video of him running to show him “scampering” on the basepaths with fast, quick steps; that’s not what I see; i see more of a loping gait that still shows he’s kind of aging into his body.
https://www.mlb.com/video/2025-draft-eli-willits-ss?q=Eli%20Willits&cp=CMS_FIRST&qt=FREETEXT&p=0
Todd Boss
14 Aug 25 at 12:03 pm
Agree 100% that its way premaute to assess Willits’ power ceiling at 17 year old.
FWIW, Willit’s frame now is (6-1 180) is essentially identical to Trea Turner at age 32 (6-1 185). As a prospect, Turner was thought to limited, at best, power. Power was considered Turner’s weakest tool. Turner has hit 20+ HRs each of the past 4 seasons.
There are few certainties in evaluating prospects, but it is a certainty that Willits, not at 17, will get stronger and develop more power as he ages.
Pilchard
14 Aug 25 at 12:33 pm
I think I agree with most here that these rankings for recent draftees are very aggressive. I think there’s a systemic bias in favor of the latest thing, and that the increased uncertainty around players who haven’t played a single game as a pro only serves to allow folks to dream on their upsides.
Against this pattern is the stark reality that most prospects fail to make the majors and most players who make the majors fail to stick as productive regulars, let alone stars. So what sense does it make to rate new arrivals as if they will reach their 99th percentile outcome? Honestly, I’d love to be able to bet against all recent draftees holding or improving their prospect stock over the next two years.
On Willits specifically, I think he’s pretty clearly our 3rd best prospect at this point. To put him ahead of Sykora you need believe Sykora is less than typically likely to regain his form post-TJ. To put him ahead of Susana requires you to believe the team is fooling themselves that he’s healthy and the recent UCL scare still portends TJ and a conversion to relief. Neither of those takes are ridiculous, exactly, but I don’t think they’re the most likely scenarios either.
My top 5 right now is Susana, Sykora, Willits, Clemmey, and Morales, with the other recent $2M+ draftees all in between 10th and 18th. If they show well, there’s room to move them up at that point.
SMS
14 Aug 25 at 1:03 pm
Lowe DFA’d. Color me shocked
Derek
14 Aug 25 at 2:31 pm
Wow. Didn’t have that on my transaction bingo card, but can’t say it’s undeserved. Lowe has been worth -0.7 WAR this year. Darnell Coles breaks yet another bat. How is he still around?
Speaking of which, I thought Rizzo was a trade master? In recent years, his track record got much more mixed. For every Soto deal masterclass, you have the Scherzer/Turner deal to temper things. And for all the hype around flipping Candelario for Herz or Harvey for Wallace or Thomas for Clemmey, the value extracted still remains largely theoretical (though even if Herz doesn’t pitch again, we’ll always have those good 88 IP).
Will
14 Aug 25 at 2:53 pm
Are folks thinking that means Bell at 1B and a rotating DH? Or are they going to see if Lile does less damage if he’s at first?
SMS
14 Aug 25 at 2:56 pm
This may seem a bit off topic, but it’s not at all when you consider that five of the six on the list above were drafted out of high school and the other one signed as a Dominican teen:
https://nomoredrills.substack.com/p/the-40-billion-industry-built-on
(just click “No Thanks” if asked to subscribe)
This hits SO close to home to anyone who has been around youth sports.
KW
14 Aug 25 at 7:32 pm
just had my first look at Rafael Ramirez, he was #20 on this list last year. now playing in F’burg and looking much bigger than his listed 159 lbs. I expect he’ll be back on this list a year from now.
FredMD
15 Aug 25 at 9:32 am
I’m amazed this penny pinching team cut bait on Lowe. I think Bell goes to 1B and the DH rotates amongst Crews, Lile, and Hassell as long as all the outfielders are healthy. I’d love to see someone like Chapparo or Schnell force the issue for the DH spot, or maybe to see Morales up there. Maybe we’ll see that on 9/1.
Todd Boss
15 Aug 25 at 9:36 am
Chaparro is OPSing .949 in 45 AAA games. I’d certainly rather see him play 1B the rest of the way than Bell.
I think Lile, Hassell, and Crews need to play every day, whether in AAA or MLB. If they are (inexplicably) committed to playing Bell every day, then that likely means Chaparro stays in AAA.
I, personally, would have Wood start every day in LF. No DH. He needs OF reps. I’d have Crews start every day in CF and move him to RF or give him a day off once a week to give Young a small amount of PT. I’d have Hassell and Lile split time between RF and DH. This leaves Young as the odd man out, but that’s fine with me. His destiny is 4th/5th OF; if someone thinks he’s an 80 WRC+ bat rather than a 60 WRC+, then trade him before you hang up the phone.
Derek
15 Aug 25 at 10:27 am
had DeJong not gotten hot I think Chapparo would be here.
@Derek, I’m 100% with you on the four desired outfielders.
as for Bell, he’s been a class act and mentor for Wood. he’s earned the right to play out the season in my mind.
Lowe’s tenure here got off to a bad start when they took him to arbitration, his decent start to the season not withstanding. his play had cratered as of late. he’ll hook up somewhere for a stretch run.
FredMD
15 Aug 25 at 11:31 am
If there was a legit first base prospect knocking at the door, could see DFAing Bell too, but there really isn’t. Andres Chaparro is 26, and is well past prospect status. Schnell has played 34 games at 1B in his career. None this year. He’s not the Nats’ long-term first base answer, and the Nats are so deep in the OF right now; hard to see Schnell as a long term contributor for the Nats.
FWIW, Christian Frankling has been crushing it in Rochester. If not for the glut of young OFs, he might be in line for an MLB promotion.
As mentioned above, by all accounts, Bell has been a great clubhouse presence and has helped in the development of the Nats’ young players. With the DH spot now open, Bell isn’t in the way of Hassell or Lile or even Youngs ABs. So, I’m OK with keeping him for the last six weeks.
As for DeJong, would have been nice if he had played like this before the trade deadline. He’s hitting a little bit and his defense plays at multiple positions. Might consider DFAing DeJong to bring Nunez or Lipscomb, but the upside of both those guys are ultility INFs, essentially the 26th guy on a MLB roster. So, DeJong staying isn’t impacting the Nats future development.
Pilchard
15 Aug 25 at 12:16 pm
Feels like there’s a way to get 90% of the benefit of Bell’s clubhouse presence–which I don’t deny exists–without playing him every day. Josh Bell is now a league average bat–103, 101, and 104 WRC+ over the last three seasons–who plays a shitty 1B. He’s now the definition of “replacement level” who offers you slightly more certainty (but less upside) than a AAAA type like Chaparro. Does anybody think he gets a major league deal for next season?
I wouldn’t necessarily bet on Chaparro being better than that–the projection systems think he’s sub-100 WRC+ and I have no reason to doubt that. At the same time, isn’t it worth knowing that he’s no better than Josh Bell? Plus, 50 AAA games at .950 WRC+ is good! That’s like first-half James Wood caliber production in AAA.
I dunno, I have nothing bad to say about Josh Bell (apart from baserunning). I just think the org would benefit from Chaparro taking his ABs even if he’s worse or no better than Bell would have been.
Derek
15 Aug 25 at 12:53 pm
Petry gave an interview to MASN, here’s one snippet
“I mean, Eli Willis is an absolute stud. One of the best shortstops I’ve played with and he’s a 17 year old. The kid is just unbelievable. Barrel accuracy. He plays the game with his head on fire, steals bases, causes chaos on the basepath, he’s very fast. He’s a great kid, too. Very humble. Just a guy that you really want in your organization.”
FredMD
15 Aug 25 at 1:37 pm
The Nats basically should be holding open auditions for these last 40 games. What does it hurt to give Chaparro one more look at the big leagues? Schnell would require a 40-man move, but will anyway if they’re going to protect him from Rule 5. Same with Franklin.
What’s the best OF defense? Is Hassell better in CF than Crews? If it’s Lile, I’m skeptical of him even in RF, and certainly not in CF. If he wins the job, I would move Wood to RF and have Lile in LF.
But the bigger point is that it’s time to experiment.
KW
15 Aug 25 at 2:02 pm
I like prospects as much as anybody, but c’mon, Andres Chaparro is not in the Nats’ future at 1B, and if he is, the franchise is in for an even bigger world of hurt going forward.
He’s Joey Meneses-lite…
Also, the Nats just committed to getting regular ABs for Hassell and Lile (and Crews who is a rookie). Brady House is playing 3b almost everyday. Drew Millas is getting ABs. Brad Lord is in the rotation, and 7 of 8 relievers in the bullpen are rookies.
As awful as the season has gone, the Nats haven’t hesitated to give prospects a shot. Chaparro just isn’t one.
Pilchard
15 Aug 25 at 2:35 pm
Then you’d rather call up Morales at 1B?
I’m not jumping up and down about Chaparro, but I also know that 26 isn’t too late for someone to turn into something. Just ask Steven Souza.
KW
15 Aug 25 at 3:30 pm
On KW’s point, Jayson Werth didn’t really arrive in the majors until he was 25/26, and didn’t make much of an impact until he was 28-29.
John C.
16 Aug 25 at 10:37 am
I think there’s sometimes an assumption that development almost doesn’t exist, and that the player promotions are more about sorting though prospects to find the ones who can succeed than trying to provoke a series of adjustments that durably improve the players’ underlying skillsets.
This is almost exactly the shape of the discussion around Chapparo, and arguably it makes sense for him – he’s excelled at AAA and he’s pretty old for a rookie-ish player. Giving him 200 more ML PAs to “see what we have” probably is the best way to maximize his contribution to the team long term. (Whether Chapparo, as a team asset, is worth prioritizing over other strategic goals is another question.)
But for someone like Morales – a 23 year old with a 93 wRC+ in AAA (and even if you crop off the struggles immediately after his promotion, it’s a pretty good but not great 150 PAs of 119 wRC+ since 7/1) – I don’t think the path that maximizes his long term contribution is an immediate promotion. And if it’s not the best path for immediate ML wins and it’s not the best path for his development, it’s hard to see the upside.
I like Bell, and even if he’s giving us no long term value, as long as he’s playing above replacement level and not blocking options more compelling than the ones I’m seeing, I keep running him out there most days.
SMS
16 Aug 25 at 1:13 pm
Chaparro gets the call. Mets will start lefties on Tuesday and Thursday. Would guess Chaparro will get some ABs.
Pilchard
18 Aug 25 at 10:55 am
Chaparro’s MLB splits:
versus LHP .894 OPS
versus RHP .532 OPS
Anonymous
18 Aug 25 at 10:57 am
Anon, it’s a perfect platoon split with Bell, who’s batting:
vs LHP: .542 OPS
vs RHP: .770 OPS
DeJong also has strongly lefty favorable splits, so it’ll be interesting to see who gets the occasional starts vs lefties. But maybe it’s a good time to rest House at 3B, who has a .424 OPS vs LHP and a .635 OPS vs RHP.
Will
18 Aug 25 at 11:04 am
I’m all for Bell-Chaparro platoon, but would like to get Chaparro some starts against RHP.
As for House and reverse splits: we have a *tremendous* amount of evidence that hitters do better against opposite-handed pitchers. There are also plenty of examples (both pitchers and hitters) who have durable reverse splits. But to be comfortable that you’ve identified the comparatively rare person with reverse splits, you need a lot of data (surely more than House’s few months in MLB). For a lefty relief pitcher, for example, it often takes like three seasons for things to normalize because it takes a loooong time for that pitcher to accumulate enough appearances against RH batters. And for someone like House who you think might be an everyday player at 3B, the strategy should generally be “more ABs are better.”
DeJong has played well recently and I’m all in favor of getting him ABs, especially against LHP starters. But those ABs should NOT come at the expense of Brady House; they should come at the expense of Garcia (who hits lefties poorly, just as you would expect) and, to a much lesser extent, of Abrams.
Derek
18 Aug 25 at 11:24 am
At some point, Brady House has to show he’s figuring it out a little bit. House is visibly regressing. He has two walks in over 100 PAs since June 28. His OPS over the last month is .447, and its even worse over the past couple of weeks. House looks completely lost at the plate, and he is trending hard in the other direction. On top of that House made a costly error yesterday.
Understand the need for younger players to get PT for this team, but they also need to show at least minimal signs that they are figuring out. House’s play says the opposite.
Pilchard
18 Aug 25 at 11:53 am
I seem to recall House having a slow start at each new level. As just one example, he had a 67 WRC+ in 54 AAA games in 2024 and a 127 WRC+ in AAA in 65 AAA games in 2025. He’s just 45 games into his MLB career. House needs to keep getting MLB at bats.
For a club like the 2025 Washington Nationals, there is no tradeoff between “letting prospects figure it out at the MLB level” and winning MLB games because, as we sit here right now, winning MLB games has basically zero value for the 2025 Washington Nationals.
Derek
18 Aug 25 at 12:12 pm
OK. At what point, do we think House needs a AAA reset?
I’m all for keeping prospects up if they are showing a pulse.
Lile? Yes (even though his defense needs work).
Hassell? Yes.
Millas? Yes.
Jacob Young? Ok.
Cavalli? Yes. He is competing at this level.
This is a performance driven business, and the signs are pretty clear that House isn’t figuring it out right now.
Both Lile and Hassel went down and came back up as better players. Mike Trout turned out to be a pretty good MLB player, and he went back to AAA for a stint after struggling at the MLB level. Jackson Holliday was the #1 prospect in the sport. After a poor start in Baltimore in 2024, the O’s sent him back to Norfolk, his confidence returned and he has been a solid MLB player since.
The idea that House has to play no matter how poorly he does at the MLB level is not a formula that is in anyone’s best interest.
Pilchard
18 Aug 25 at 12:34 pm
House: does seem to need adjustment time at each level. also there’s this:
– Mike Trout’s debut season in MLB: .220/.281/.390.
– Mike trout’s 2nd season in MLB: .326/.399/.564, a 30-30 season, a ROY and 2nd in league MVP.
If Trout needed a couple of months to adjust, so does everyone else 🙂
Todd Boss
18 Aug 25 at 1:10 pm
House’s play in the field has also slipped a bit, maybe a sign he’s pressing.
Chapparo is bound to see a few righty relievers in games started by southpaws unless he get pinch hit for.
FredMD
18 Aug 25 at 1:44 pm
House’s slump isn’t prolonged enough for me to send him down just yet, but I see the argument. To extend the Trout comparison, Trout debuted, wasn’t good, and hit .163/.213/.279 in his first 14 games. He got sent back down to AA, where he hit .333/.408/.587, got sent back up, and hit .250/.318/.450 in the final 26 games of the season, then put up those numbers you cite in his 2nd season. It’s a strong argument for demoting House until he can rediscover his rhythm. It seems to have worked for Hassell too.
Will
18 Aug 25 at 3:04 pm
But while we’re at it, could we fire Darnell Coles already? I fear he’s done far more damage than anyone else during this rebuild.
House has 46 K and only 5 BB in 176 PA. Hassell has 29 K and only 2 BB in 113 PA. Lile has 38 K and 11 BB in 223 PA. Even Drew Millas and his elite walk rates only has 3 BB in 47 PA (though to be fair only 6 K). Coles’ “swing at everything” approach is harming our batters. I fear he’s irreparably broken Ruiz, can we stop him from doing the same to the other young bats?
Will
18 Aug 25 at 3:11 pm
The Nats are going to clean house on the coaching staff.
That said, always curious why the Nats’ fanbase has such a bee up their ass about Darnell Coles, and not any other coach on the staff.
Hear me out on this.
The Nats are a terrible team, and no aspect of the coaching staff has distinguished themselves. That said, the offense has been the best of three phases of the game (batting, pitching and fielding), and its not particularly close.
Out of 30 teams, the Nats are 18th in OPS+and 20th in runs scored, 20th in runs per game. In those categories the Nats are ahead of several teams with larger payrolls and higher offensive expectations (e.g., Rangers, Giants, Padres), and the Nats are pretty close to league average in key offensive stats. Given the talent on hand, and the inexperience of this team, don’t think its a stretch to say Washington is playing to expectation with its offense.
Now, let’s look at pitching. Ugly. Ugly. Ugly. 29th in runs allowed (ahead of only the historically bad Rockies playing at altitude). Same for ERA. Deading Fing Last in ERA plus (yes, below the Rockies). 27th in FIP. 29th in WHIP. DFL in bullpen ERA. Except for Brad Lord, every Nats’ starter has massively regressed during the season. The bullpen? Yikes. Worst in baseball. The Nats are massively below league average. Why isn’t there the same clamoring for Jim Hickey’s and Doolittle’s head as there is for Coles’? Jake Irvin and Mitchell Parker are virtually unpitchable. What happened to those guys?
Defense. Nats are 28th in Total Zone Runs Fielding. 28th in Defensive runs saved. DFL in net good plays versus misplays. It’s my understanding Parra is primarily tasked with working with the OFs (what is he doing with Daylen Lile?) and Ricky Guiterrez is working with the INFs (the infield defense has been an abject disaster; the DFA’s Nat Lowe and Luis Garcia have been particularly atrocious; major drop-offs from last year). Where is the blame on those coaches?
Again, not advocating for keeping Darnell Coles after the season, but to single him out as someone that needs to be fired yesterday, while not calling out any of the other coaches that are responsible for units that have been demonstrably worse than the Nats’ offense, really calls into question the motivation for scape-goating Coles.
I’m ready to start all over with the entire staff, but based on the numbers, Coles does not deserve to be the primary target of attack.
Pilchard
18 Aug 25 at 3:56 pm
Let’s not confuse correlation with causation here. I’m going to go WAAAAAY out on a limb here and say that in the counterfactual world where Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, Mike Trout, etc. didn’t get sent back to AAA after their first cups of coffee . . . they all would have ended up (or will end up) right where they belong in the Hall of Fame.
I, personally, think players like House and Crews improve more quickly by taking their lumps at the highest levels against the best pitchers in the world. I think that’s even more true when the team in question is terrible (like the 2025 Nats) and nobody is really paying attention.
I also agree that the fanbase’s ire at Darnell Coles makes no sense. Nate Lowe made $10M this year and would have made a lot more than he is going to make in 2026 if he hadn’t dropped almost 30 WRC+ points between ’24 and ’25. That guy just doesn’t give a shit about what Darnell Coles–whose salary is probably 5% of his–has to say about anything.
Derek
18 Aug 25 at 4:42 pm
I’m more than happy to criticize Hickey, Parra and everyone else on the Nats coaching staff too! It’s truly an amateur assortment of coaches, and was the biggest reason I was in favor of firing Martinez, because he surrounded himself with bad coaches with awful, out-dated philosophies (I think it’s safe to say the results speak for themselves at this point). Just for a discussion that has been focused almost exclusively on the Nats’ young hitters, it was a related point to discuss Coles’ role. Coles’ “magic” was (indirectly) highlighted by Bell, who said Nats coaches tweaked his swing to hit for more power, which he attributed to his 1st half slump. He’s since switched back to his old swing, and chalked that up to his return to his old self (great show of confidence in Nats’ coaching!)
Nathaniel Lowe and Nats coaches talked about how they wanted him too to hit for more power this season, before the season began. Sounds strangely familiar to what Bell was saying… But let’s see how he fares in Boston.
Then you have guys like Millas, Lile and Hassell, who consistently posted above average walk rates across the minors, seem incapable of taking walks as soon as they arrive in DC. With Bell, you at least have a veteran, who knows his swing well enough to switch back to it. Are House, Hassell or Lile capable of recognizing bad advice and simply switching back to their old way of doing things? Unclear. But it’s why I’m worried about Coles’ legacy.
Speaking of which, Hickey isn’t doing himself any favors. Finnegan has spoken very highly of the Tigers’ pitching staff/support staff, and how they’ve already encouraged him to make some tweaks, throwing more splitters, which has led him to being practically unhittable in Detroit. His Ks have skyrocketed and his walks plummetted. Let’s see how sustainable it is, but he does look like a different guy than the one we were seeing in July… Obviously, not everyone gets a boost upon leaving. Harvey and Soroka couldn’t stay healthy long enough to improve or regress. Robert Garcia doesn’t seem to have benefitted from a change of scenery.
Though, at this stage, a big difference between our hitting and pitching is the quality of prospects that reach the majors (though please don’t confuse this with a defense of Hickey). Wood, Crews and House were all top 100 prospects upon arrival. It’s been years since Cavalli or Rutledge were considered top 100 guys. Irvin and Parker weren’t on any prospecters’ radar. So for these guys to look less than impressive is less of an indictment on coaching than Crews or Houses’ struggles might be. Perhaps that criticism should be aimed at Rizzo and the development staff he’d assembled in the minors, than it is of Hickey/Doolittle. Which is also why I didn’t think Rizzo was the guy to lead us through this rebuild. He let the player development system get stale, and had no ideas on how to fix things until it was several years too late.
Will
18 Aug 25 at 5:42 pm