Nationals Arm Race

"… the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same – pitching.” — Earl Weaver

Nats should trade for Jacoby Ellsbury


Rizzo; go get this guy! Photo

The Red Sox’s signing of Carl Crawford to a 7yr, $142M contract (a contract undoubtedly pushed skyward by the Nats Jayson Werth deal a few days earlier)  makes for a rather imposing possible Red Sox Lineup in 2011.  Here’s a probable opening day lineup:

  1. 2B Dustin Pedroia (R)
  2. LF Carl Crawford (L)
  3. 1B Adrian Gonzalez (L)
  4. 3B Kevin Youkilis (R)
  5. DH David Ortiz (L)
  6. RF J.D. Drew (L)
  7. SS Marco Scutaro (R)
  8. C Jarrod Saltalamacchia (S)
  9. CF Jacoby Ellsbury (L)

Now, one thing is immediately apparent with this lineup.  They are incredibly lefty-heavy through the heart of their order.  And in a division with CC Sabathia, probably Andy Pettitte and potentially Cliff Lee on their main competitor, this could be rather bad during key divisional games.

Clearly the Red Sox need to get some righty help in the heart of their lineup.  Enter Josh Willingham.

Trade Proposal: The Nats trade Willingham and a decent prospect (perhaps one of our AA pitchers) to the Red Sox for Jacoby Ellsbury.  Crawford slides over to center for Boston, Willingham plays left, and you have Mike Cameron as your late inning defensive replacement outfielder.

Ellsbury is exactly what the Nats need; leadoff center fielder who shows more promise and more self control than our current leadoff/CF Nyjer Morgan.  He lost most of 2010 to injury but in 2009 lead the league in stolen bases and would give us good defense in center per his uzr/150 rankings.  He’s cost contained (not yet arbitration eligible) and we’d control him for at least 3 more years.

Willingham’s approach at the plate fits the Sabremetric-thinking Red Sox; he has a high OBP, sees a lot of pitches and puts up a good OPS when healthy.  He is defensively challenged but left field at Fenway might be the best place in all of baseball to “hide” a crummy defender.  He’d give the Red Sox a righty presence in the middle of the lineup and replace a 9th place hitter with a middle of the order hitter.  He’s in the last year of arbitration but still projects to be relatively cheap (by Boston’s standards), probably earning around $6M/year.  He clearly wants to set down roots and could be a nice 3 or 4-year signing in Boston.

With Willingham, here’s a Potential Boston lineup:

  1. 2B Dustin Pedroia (R)
  2. CF Carl Crawford (L)
  3. 3B Kevin Youkilis (R)
  4. 1B Adrian Gonzalez (L)
  5. LF Josh Willingham (R)
  6. DH David Ortiz (L)
  7. RF J.D. Drew (L)
  8. SS Marco Scutaro (R)
  9. C Jarrod Saltalamacchia (S)

Now they go R-L alternatively for the first 6 hitters, and if Saltamacchia catches or if Varitek gets some ABs they both switch hit and could slot above Scutaro to give even more flexibility.

Who says no first?

6 Responses to 'Nats should trade for Jacoby Ellsbury'

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  1. Your logic would make sense if not for a couple of points: Ellsbury hits for a higher average against left-handed pitchers. His .304 average against southpaws is better than Willingham’s average against lefties or righties. Ellsbury has better defensive skills than Willingham.

    I’m not in favor of a trade.


    9 Dec 10 at 2:08 pm

  2. But, Willingham is a beast in the middle of the order and an outfield of Willingham-Crawford-Drew has significantly more impact than Crawford-Ellsbury-Drew. Would you rather have a #5 hitter or a #9 hitter?

    I think the Sox could be convinced to make this trade if the throwin prospects from the Nats made it worth their while.

    Todd Boss

    9 Dec 10 at 6:24 pm

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