I went 0 for 2 predicting games last night. Oakland gets screwed on the disputed HR call, their bullpen falls apart and lets in 5 runs, and they can’t score after loading the bases with zero outs (that situation has an average run expectancy of about 2.4 runs … they got zero). Ball game. Neither starter pitched badly (both went 6 innings and gave up 3 runs for the mediocre 4.50 ERA “quality start”). But in the battle of the bullpens, Detroit pulled out its big gun in ace Scherzer and it almost cost them. He somehow got out of the bases loaded jam with a couple of Ks (one where he got Donaldson to swing at a ball-4 change-up that was a foot inside) and then escaped when a rope to center was caught instead of falling in or sailing over Jackson.
In the night cap I guess it isn’t entirely surprising that Boston won; they easily handled Tampa on the season series. Their offense is best in the league and just has not been shut down yet. I still see them as favorites to make the World Series; decent pitching and an offense that has scored 26 runs in 4 games against the very good Tampa pitching staff. Phew.
Tonight’s game could be one of the games of the post season. Cole vs Wainwright. Game 5 in St Louis, one of the best baseball towns in the game. Cole is just a kid; conventional baseball wisdom says a rookie will wilt under playoff pressure. But he sure didn’t do that in the previous game (holding the Cardinals to 1 run on two hits in 6 innings in game 2. That one run was via a homer ..). Can he do it twice in a row? Same question goes for Wainwrigth; last post season he shutdown the Nats in game 1 and got trounced in game 5. Can he hold down the Pirates two times in a row?
I think in the end you have to go with St. Louis simply because they’re home, and because they’re the better hitting team.