Hard to win games when you’re going against guys like this for two straight weeks. Photo via bleachereport.com
The Nats just finished being swept at the hands of our closest divisional rival, and the natives seem to be getting a bit restless.
I’m not worried. You know why? The Nats just finished one of the most brutal stretches of opposing pitchers I can ever remember. To wit, here’s what they had to face coming out of the all star break:
- LA: Bolsinger, Kershaw, Greinke
- Mets: Harvey, DeGrom, Snydergaard
- Pitt: Liriano, Locke, Burnett, Cole
- Miami: Fernandez, Koehler, Haren
- Mets: Harvey, DeGrom, Snydergaard
The 16 starters they’ve had to face since the All Star game include:
- Six 2015 All-Stars (Kershaw, Greinke, DeGrom twice, Burnett and Cole)
- The 2015 all-star game *starter* in Greinke
- The two-time defending Cy Young winner in Kershaw
- The guy who probably *would* have won the Cy Young in 2013 had he not gotten hurt (Harvey)
- The last two NL Rookies of the Year (DeGrom and Fernandez)
- Seven guys ranked in the top 20 in all of baseball for ERA, not to mention 4 of the top 10 and the two best in Greinke and DeGrom.
- Five guys ranked in the top 15 in the game for pure fastball velocity (Snydergaard, Fernandez, Cole, deGrom and Harvey).
- At least half of these guys being what i’d call an “Ace” in this league, and a handful more that are easily #2’s.
That’s just a brutal stretch. By my estimates, I had the Nats with a favorable pitching match-up just three times in their first 16 games back: Zimmermann over Bolsinger (a win), Scherzer over Locke (a bad loss), and Scherzer over Haren (a 1-0 squeaker win). Certainly I did not have us with a favorable matchup in any of the 3 games this weekend, and it was little surprise to me to see us get swept. I thought we’d be lucky to be at .500 for these 16 games and with some bad luck they ended up this stretch 6-10.
Now here’s the good news. We should get pretty healthy in the next week or so. We face Arizona at home with four pitching matchups that favor Washington. Then Colorado comes to town and are throwing a couple of guys that I’ve frankly never even heard of (Yohan Flande and Eddie Butler). So a week from now we may be on a 6-1 or 5-2 streak and be back in happy town.
The Nats have been very streaky this year. With apologies to “arbitrary endpoint” haters, you can divide the season into five neat streaks:
| Start Date | End Date | Wins during Streak | Losses during streak | Record at end of Streak | GB or GA in Division | Key moments starting/ending streak |
| 4/6/2015 | 4/27/2015 | 7 | 13 | 7-13 | -8 GB | Opening day instability of offense leads to sputtering start. |
| 4/28/2015 | 5/27/2015 | 21 | 6 | 28-19 | +1.5 GA | Unbelievable 13-12 win in Atlanta on 4/28 ends 7-13 start to season and kicks off a 21-6 run |
| 5/28/2015 | 6/19/2015 | 6 | 13 | 34-33 | -1.5 GB | Strasburg lasts just 5 batters on 5/28 and hits the D/L in Cincinnati |
| 6/19/2015 | 7/12/2015 | 14 | 6 | 46-38 | +2 GA | Long road trip/tough schedule stretch ends with dominant Ross performance at home 6/20/15, kicking off easy stretch and full-strength pitching rotation |
| All star break | ||||||
| 7/19/2015 | 8/2/2015 | 6 | 10 | 54-49 | even | Brutal stretch of opposing pitchers to start the 2nd half. |
And now here we stand, on 8/3/15, even up with the Mets for the division and just a handful of games over .500. Inarguably the Mets made great moves at the trade deadline. But remember, they’ll face the same post-TJ decision on Harvey that the Nats did with Strasburg in 2012. And Snydergaard’s max IP was 133 last year; He’s already at that for 2015 and its just the beginning of August. Both these guys may be looking at regression or outright damage as they rocket past conservative workloads for 2015. Will that work to the Nats’ favor?
I still like the Nats offensive capabilities once they’re fully healthy. Its like getting players at the trade deadline, only you don’t have to bet the farm for them. Will they hold up through the end of the season? Will Strasburg return and give us the same level of pitching that Joe Ross has in his absence? Lets hope so.