Nationals Arm Race

Clippard is inarguably the glue of the Nationals much-improved bullpen. Photo Meaghan Gay/DCist.com

(editor’s note: its been quiet on nationalsarmrace.  Its been a Bad bad week for work, with yours truly finishing up a project and starting a new job next monday.  I’ve got some stuff written but its not complete, I’m hoping to get some time this w/e to post.  Apologies for radio silence).

In the baseball calendar, the all-star break represents the mid-way point of the season (despite it annually occurring a few games AFTER the 81st game for teams).  But for transaction mavens, it also marks the beginning of the pre-waiver wire trade season.  The Nationals have enjoyed unexpected success in 2011, playing far above predictions and its unclear to some whether we’re Buyers, Sellers or somewhere in-between.  Frankly, we should be thinking of selling no matter what our record.  We’re 9 games back of the Wild Card (Atlanta) and they’re a far superior team to us.  We need to acknowledge this fact and start cashing in every veteran free agent on a one-year contract that we can.

That means we move every one of this list of players if we can: Jason Marquis (to the pitching starved Yankees or Red Sox perhaps?), Ivan Rodriguez (to the Giants, who need catching depth and love veterans), Jerry Hairston, Rick Ankiel, Todd Coffey (to Texas maybe, who craves bullpen help and has been scouting him), Alex Cora, Livan Hernandez, Laynce Nix and even Matt Stairs.   Of course, most of these guys are playing at or below replacement level and are not going anywhere.  But some definitely have value.  Marquis and Coffey are the two most obvious trade candidates, followed by Pudge.

(Side note: Do I advocate trading Laynce Nix?  Yes I do.  He’s playing at a high level in-arguably, but there’s no spot for him next year.  LaRoche can only play 1st, which pushes Morse back to Left.  Nix can’t play anywhere else.  He’s too good to be a 4th outfielder and his value is high right now.  We should flip him for a prospect now).

Now, in addition to the typical trade candidates mentioned above, we keep reading rumors that list both Tyler Clippard and Drew Storen as being tradeable assets.  And I can’t quite understand why.

On the one hand, relievers are and should be treated as nearly fungible assets to be used and then discarded when they’re done.   I even believe this when it comes to closers, and will cite lots of research done by people like Joe Posnanski about how even with $10M closers MLB teams are winning almost the exact same percentage of games with 3-run leads in the 9th inning now that they did in the 50s before the closer was invented.

However, I completely acknowledge that Clippard is easily our most important reliever, more valuable and better than Storen, and I love the fact that we’re using our best reliever right now in the highest leverage situations instead of letting him sit on his ass waiting for a “save opportunity” while the 5th best guy in your pen tries to get the starter out of bases-loaded, no outs jams in the 6th innings of games (a personal managing pet peeve of mine).  Meanwhile Storen is a poster child for our team’s player development and drafting, having signed quickly and risen through the minors to nearly become the first player of his draft class to debut in the majors.

For me though, both Clippard and Storen have one other overriding factor; their contract status.  They’re both pre-arbitration guys with lots of years of team control still to come.  The absolute best asset in all of baseball is the pre-arbitration pitcher, so i’d have to think this team would need to be completely overblown by a trade offer to consider moving either guy.  We control Tyler Clippard THROUGH 2015, Storen even longer.  Even with four arbitration years coming Clippard is going to be vastly underpaid as compared to what he’s worth on the open market.

We all know there are certain players that are “un-tradeable.”  Ryan Zimmerman, Bryce Harper, Danny Espinosa, Steven Strasburg are names that come to mind on this team.  So if some offer came in for Clippard and Storen that was just unbelievable we’d have to consider it of course.  But should we be shopping these guys?  Absolutely not.

Lannan, pre-nose shattering liner. Photo Luis Alvarez/AP

The 19th cycle was shortened by one start (Gorzelanny misses a turn in the rotation) as the league hits the all-star break.  We’ll pick up with the 20th cycle on Friday July 15th at the Braves, and will shuffle the order of the starters slightly.

Good

• Jordan Zimmermann took the team into the All Star break with a dominant 7 inning, 4hit, 6k outing against the Rockies on 7/10 (box/gamer).  It was a slightly questionable hook by Davey Johnson; Zimmermann was only on 88 pitches, but perhaps they’re thinking about squeezing innings out of him after we reach September.

Bad

• Livan Hernandez couldn’t protect the EIGHT run lead his offense gave him in the Cubs finale on 7/7 (box/gamer), but it was the bullpen that eventually took the ugly 10-9 loss.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• John Lannan took a liner off the nose, breaking it, in his 7/8 start (box/gamer).  Unfortunately despite 5ks in 3 innings he also took the loss.
• Jason Marquis was a bit wild in his 7/9 start (box/gamer) against the Rockies, taking the loss despite a 6inning, 2run outing.  Rockies starter Ubaldo Jimenez was too good, taking a no-hitter into the 5th.

Starter Trends: More up-and-down performances out of Livan make you wonder if his rotation spot is really that secure.  Marquis has tailed off at just the wrong time, while Lannan may visit the DL.

MLB Trends (through Zimmermann 7/10)
Lhernandez         bad,great,bad,good,bad
Marquis                good,bad,great,bad,soso
Lannan                 good,good,good,bad,incomplete
Zimmermann     great,good,great,good,good
Gorzelanny          soso,bad->dl,bad,good,good

Relievers of Note and other News

• Further notes about the Yankees interest in Sean Burnett, as reported by Bill Ladson.  Problem is, the Nats would be selling at an absolute low point on Burnett, with little in the way of left-handed relief coming up.
• The news, as suspected, is not good on Cole Kimball.  Torn rotator cuff, surgery required.  Lets hope that he recovers well.

Is Marquis hurting his trade value? Photo Drew Hallowell/Getty Images

The 18th Rotation cycle will be interesting; a day-night doubleheader, then two straight day games for a team that plays most of its games at night, may prove challenging for the Nats, especially considering that the Cubs are completely used to playing day games.  This review will include 6 games, since we’ll need an extra pitcher by virtue of the saturday double-header.

Good

• Livan Hernandez pitched a typically crafty game in the 7/2 day-game (box/gamer), allowing 2 runs on 6 hits in 7 complete innings with a couple of walks and 6 strikeouts.  He left with a ND.
• John Lannan pitched pretty well in the 7/2 night-cap (box/gamer), going 7 innings, giving up 3 runs on 6 hits.  He walked no-one but only struck out one batter.  He sat at 80 pitches upon his removal in a Loss situation.
• Ross Detwiler‘s first MLB start since last September went pretty well on 7/5 (box/gamer).  5 1/3, 4 hits, 2 runs (both on a 2-run homer in his final inning), 0 walks and 1 strikeout (he also hit a batter).   He was only at 78 pitchers mid-way through the 6th when Johnson went to his bullpen immediately after the 2-run homer.  The 3-2 lead held on for the win however.  For me a very good appearance for Detwiler (in contrast to Maya’s 4 starts up here).

Bad

• Jason Marquis was shelled for 7 runs (6 earned) on 8 hits while only retiring four batters on 7/3 (box/gamer) and game more reminiscent of his performances in the beginning of last year pre-surgery.   After a fantastic May and early June, Marquis has now gotten more or less pounded in 3 of his last 5 starts and his trade value has to be plummeting by the week.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• Jordan Zimmermann certainly wasn’t helped by some “questionable” defense, including a routine fly ball that fell to earth and scored two runs instead of ending an inning, in 7/4’s scorching win over Chicago (box/gamer).  The play in question is yet another piece of evidence why ERAs are misleading; instead of getting a quality start, Zimmerman’s line on the day goes 6ip, 8hits, 4runs, 1 walk and 5 Ks.   If that line reads 6ip, 7hits, 2 runs, 1 walk and 5Ks it looks a lot better right?
• Tom Gorzelanny fell victim (again) to the long ball against the cubs on 7/6 (box/gamer), giving up 4 runs in 6 innings on two bombs given up to Carlos Pena and Aramis Ramirez.  Both were no-doubters on bad mistakes over the plate.    Luckily the cardiac kids pulled out a victory later on in the game.  Gorzelanny has now given up FOURTEEN homers in 77 innings over 13 starts.  One every 5.5 innings, or just about one per start.  The league average (per b-r.com anyway) is 18 per 180 innings or one every 10 innings.

Starter Trends

Relievers of Note and other News

• Chien-Ming Wang threw his 2nd rehab start on 7/2, this time in high-A for Potomac.  As Adam Kilgore reports, he pitched 4 scoreless inning, allowing 1 hit and 2 walks.  He reportedly hit 91mph, which is great news.  I pulled the Pitch f/x data from Wang’s 2007 season prior to his injury to try to get a feel for what he was capable of back then.  Here’s the data from June 6th, 2007, one of Wang’s best games that season.  Average fastball of 94, peaks of 97, with great separation between his fastball and his change-up.  I didn’t realize he threw that hard (if you believe the Pitch f/x data; it is spotty that early in the system’s history).  If the goal is to get his speed back to 94-97, he’s got a long way to go.
• After seemingly turning the page on his struggles this season, Sean Burnett has failed in his last two outings, including blowing 7/2’s game with a poor 8th inning.  The team is in desperate need of lefty relievers through-out the system, so its doubtful that Burnett’s job is in immediate jeopardy.  However the acquisition of JC Romero last week plus the possible conversion of former MLB starter Matt Chico to a reliever (he’s currently rehabbing in the GCL and has been alternating between starting and relief appearances) seem to indicate the team is exploring its loogy options.
• Tyler Clippard is the Nationals lone 2011 all-star (Pending Michael Morse‘s runoff vote), a validation of his dominance over the past couple years in a non-closer role.  Some may have an issue with Clippard’s selection, but in a league that mandates at least one representative from each team he’s as good as picking Morse, Storen or Espinosa in my book.
• Not that he’s a National, but Kerry Wood certainly looked out of sorts on 7/4.  1ip, 3 walks, 3 Ks, a hit batsman, a wild pitch and a blown save.  Ironically, most of this was done without anyone warming up in the bullpen, and only after Wood walked in the tying run in the 8th did the cubs manager scramble to get someone up.  Awful managing on the day, frankly.  The first batter Woods airmailed 4 pitches to should have been enough evidence.
• The day after his good spot start, Johnson announced that Detwiler would be staying on the MLB roster and replaces Collin Balester for the time being.  This is in line with Johnson’s previously stated desire to have a 6th starter/long man in the bullpen.  But the usage of Detwiler remains to be seen.  Per Zuckerman’s article, Johnson will try to use Detwiler only every 4th-5th day (as a starter would do) and perhaps use him in a single inning situation during his “throw” days in between starts.
• Craig Heist of WTOP tweeted (h/t to Craig Calcaterra here) that the Yankees are interested in Sean Burnett.  This gives me an “a-ha” moment, since I was at the 7/4 game and ran into a Yankees scout who was trying to be incognito.   At the time, I couldn’t figure out who on either team the Yankees may have been looking at; the starters that day were Zimmermann (untouchable) and Coleman (replaceable). Our biggest trade chips are Marquis and a bunch of under-performing vets.  The Cubs are filled with overpaid, under-performing guys on large contracts. The Nats have almost nothing in the way of lefty relievers in the organization right now; we’d be hard pressed to move Burnett despite his struggles this year.  Would we be selling low on Burnett based on his struggles in 2011?

Gorzelanny seems like he's back in the saddle, again. Photo: Ed Wolfstein

Cycle #16 was perhaps one of the most eventful (and weird) periods in Nationals history, with Jim Riggleman‘s ill-timed resignation, a 3 game series in Chicago that featured a game that the bullpen blew no less than three times and still managed to win, and the naming of a new manager.  How will the Davey Johnson era play out?

Good

• Livan Hernandez struck out a season-high 9 guys en route to his 5th win on the season in the Chicago series finale on 6/26 (box/gamer).  Livan continues a pretty amazing streak of pitching for this club, combined with continued timely and excellent hitting to make the team the hottest in the majors.
• Jordan Zimmermann continues to be one of the hottest (and best) pitchers in the NL, throwing 8 fantastic innings in Anaheim on 6/29 (box/gamer).  8 ip, 4 hits, 1 run (unearned), 4ks and 1bb on 93 pitches.  That’s a great game.  Too bad the Angel’s Dan Haren was better, helping to shut out the Nats and take the 1-0 victory.  Zimmermann’s 2.63 era is now good for 10th in the entire league.  Its hard not to be optimistic but it really does seem he’s growing into an “Ace” style pitcher.
• Tom Gorzelanny pitched another excellent game on 7/1 (box/gamer), going 7 complete with 6 hits, 1 walk, 8 Ks and just one unearned run allowed.  Since a rough first start back (he was probably rushed back off the DL since Maya was pitching so badly), he’s put in two excellent starts.

Bad

• John Lannan, pitching in new manager Davey Johnson’s first game, got absolutely peppered by the Angels in Anaheim on 6/27 (box/gamer).  He gave up 11 hits and 2 walks in 5 2/3’s inning but amazingly just gave up 3 runs.  Three doubleplays behind him helped, as did a severe lack of timely hitting by the Angels (they left no less than 25 men on base as a team, an astounding figure).  Still, Lannan was far too hittable on the night and this is a severe change in form for the lefty.
• Jason Marquis labored through 5 innings (and 100 pitches), his fielders labored behind him (FIVE errors on the night), and the bullpen allowed 7 runs in 4 innings to cement the loss on 6/28 (box/gamer).  Marquis’ line: 5ip, 8 hits, 4 runs (3 earned), 4 walks and 5 strikeouts.  Early in the game Marquis definitely seemed to have good sink and good fastball movement, but the umps seemed to squeeze him on the inside corner and cost him here and there.

Starter Trends (last 5).

Lhernandez      good,bad,great,bad,good
Marquis             good,good,bad,great,bad
Lannan              good,good,good,good,bad
Zimmermann  good,great,good,great,good
Gorzelanny       soso,bad->dl,bad,good,good

Relievers of Note and Other News

• Chien-Ming Wang made his first rehab start, and his first professional appearance for this team after two contracts and several million dollars, in Hagerstown on 6/27.    Adam Kilgore reported on the important appearance at the NatsJournal blog here, saying that he showed decent speed (86-88, topping at 90), with good movement and his sinker working (6/1 go/ao ratio).  Hmm.  This actually sounds pretty promising.

Overall Summary

For the first time I can ever remember, all 5 regular starters for this team possess ERAs under 4.00 and ERA+’s above 100.  The pitching staff is on a pace to allow 120 less runs this year than last, a fantastic improvement over where this staff was last year and an even more unbelievable improvement over the 2009 debacle.  Kudos to Rizzo for putting together such a great pitching turnaround.

Johnson takes over as the franchise's 4th manager since relocating. Photo: AP/Rob Carr.

With every new regime comes changes.  I suppose it was inevitable that new Nats manager Davey Johnson would have some “opinions” on the current construction of the Nats 25-man roster.  In this Mark Zuckerman piece he has some enlightening comments.  To paraphrase (along with mentioning the players he’s probably targeting for replacement):

• More offense off the bench instead of defense.  Current Bench: Stairs, Cora, Bixler, and Ankiel (Hairston when he’s not injured).  You would have to think he’s talking specifically about Bixler and Cora.  Bixler’s time on the roster probably would have come to an end had Hairston not gotten hurt.  But he may be offering criticism of Ankiel’s current batting form.  And, in a round about way (I believe the impetus for the question came from more questioning about Stairs’ value on the squad), he seems to be defending Stairs’ inclusion on the roster.  Perhaps we may see a swap for someone like Michael Aubrey in the coming days (requiring a 40-man move) but the fact is our minor league cupboard is pretty bare.  Cora is in the same boat as Hairston; useful utility veterans who can play multiple positions and whose presence on the roster is required.  Not much you can do about them, and they’ve both produced pretty well this season given expectations.
• A better long-man/spot starter.  Current bullpen: Storen, Clippard, Burnett, Coffey, Rodriguez, Mattheus and Balester, with Gaudin, Slaten and Kimball on the DL).  Of that entire list, only Balester has recent starting/long man experience and he’s struggled in 2011 thus far.  I think the move here could be to swap Balester for Craig Stammen, an MLB experienced guy who is pitching pretty well in AAA.
• Another Loogy.  The loss of Slaten has hampered the bullpen matchup game, despite his ridiculously bad WHIP and Inherited Runners-allowed-to-score figures.  Our minor league cache of lefty-relievers is pretty weak, but we did just sign Philly-castoff JC Romero.  I think Romero is destined to replace someone in the current bullpen (Mattheus?) as a loogy matchup guy sooner than later.
• Fewer Regular Lineup guys with bad L-R splits.  This is a tougher one to solve.  Lance Nix’s splits: .306 vs righties, .105 versus lefties.  Espinosa’s splits: .321 versus lefties, .207 versus righties.  Ankiel has been equally bad versus both lefties or righties this year.  Morse has actually been much better versus right-handers (.315 versus .269).  There’s no real good way to solve this problem in the short term.

Specific to hot topic Matt Stairs and his lack of capabilities on this roster, Johnson was quoted as saying that “you win pennants with 25 guys, not 24, 23 or 22.”  To me, this means that Stairs isn’t long for this team.  He was barely functional before he failed to hit his weight, now I think he’s holding back Johnson’s strategic desires.  (Last night’s walk-off blast not withstanding).

One of the problems Johnson needs to be reminded of is the specific lack of MLB experience by the rest of the current 40-man roster.  Here’s the remaining guys not already mentioned on the 40-man (with pitcher ages).

• Starters: Detwiler (L) 25, Mock 28, Stammen 27, Maya 30
• Relievers: Severino (L) 26, Carr 27
• Catchers: Flores
• Infielders: Marrero
• Outfielders: Harper, Brown

Of these 10 remaining players, 5 have never played a minute of baseball in the majors (Severino, Carr, Marrero, Harper, and Brown).  That leaves just ONE positional player on the 40-man who has played in the Majors in Flores, who clearly needs to stay in AAA to gain market value.  The four starters have all played in the majors, with mediocre-to-awful results.  So, clearly there’s not much in the minors that can be called up immediately.

My ever-lasing memory of Johnson’s managing strategy occurred during his stint with the Orioles.  The team was facing Randy Johnson during the height of his powers, and fielded a lineup of entirely right-handed hitting guys, sitting most of Baltimore’s best players.  Most thought he was crazy, but the lineup beat Johnson that night by playing matchups to the best of the team’s abilities.  So it’s not terribly surprising to hear that he wants more flexibility in his lineup.  Unfortunately, the best way to solve most of his roster-construction complaints is going to be done either on the trade-market in the next month or in the off season (more likely).  We may see some slight adjustments in the coming weeks, but the 40-man is pretty bare of resources right now for what Johnson wants.

Looks like we’re going to go with what we have for now.

Marquis pitches his best game in a Nats uniform. Photo Drew Hallowell/Getty Images via bleacherreport.com

The big news this cycle was the manager situation clearly, but the team is playing some serious baseball right now.  Cycle #15 ended with a loss, breaking an 8-game winning streak that pulled the team out of last place in the NL East (and nearly got them to .500 on the season).   We have 3 interesting series coming up against teams with similar records to us (including the suddenly decent Pittsburgh Pirates), and it should be telling how the team does over the next couple of weeks.

Good

• John Lannan pitched a pretty clean game on 6/22 (box/gamer), giving up 1 run on 3 hits in 5 2/3s innings against Seattle, then handing off the ball to his bullpen of hard-throwers, who held and closed out the win for him.  Lannan has had a pretty amazing turnaround over the past month, lowering his ERA from 5.03 to 3.40 in 6 starts.  Lannan is such an enigma; his career ERA now stands almost exactly at 4.00, with an ERA+ just over 100.  He’s pretty much the definition of a MLB average pitcher.  The problem is, the team needs guys who are consistently better than average in order to make the next step.  I can see Lannan getting tendered next year but eventually getting beat out by one of our rising starters.
• Jason Marquis put in perhaps his best outing as a National on 6/23 (box/gamer), taking a no-hitter into the 6th and leaving the game having pitched 8 scoreless innings of 3-hit ball.  He was at 108 pitches (70 for strikes) and (from what I could tell from the stands) was getting squeezed on the strike zone.  Too bad this great outing was out-shined by the abrupt resignation of manager Jim Riggleman immediately following the game.
• Jordan Zimmermann continued his excellent streak of starts, going 7 scoreless innings friday 6/24 (box/gamer) before watching his bullpen blow his Win, then blow two more leads before the team finally won in 14 innings.  Ironically it was (arguably) our 3 best relievers who each blew saves (Storen, Coffey, Clippard).  The team also managed to use every single arm in the bullpen in the process.
• Tom Gorzelanny was an unlucky loser, pitching 7 strong innings on 6/25 (box/gamer) but getting tagged for the loss when Henry Rodriguez let inherited runs score.  The Nats squandered a golden opportunity when opposing starter John Danks had to leave the game early, a night after both teams emptied the bullpens in the 14-inning wild affair.  They couldn’t get to Bruney and they certainly couldn’t get to Peavy, getting a grand total of 2 hits in 9 innings.  Hard get your pitcher a win in those circumstances.

Bad

• In the first game of the Seattle series on 6/20 (box/gamer), Livan Hernandez continued his up-and-down season with a “down” start, giving up 5 runs (4 earned) on 10 hits through 4 innings and a couple of batters in the 5th.  The game looked like a 5-1 wipeout before the Nats improbably scored 5 in the 9th inning to get a walk off win and rescue a ND for Hernandez.

Starter Trends: last 5 starts.

MLB Trends (through gorzelanny 6/25)
Lhernandez          soso,good,bad,great,bad
Marquis                 good,good,good,bad,great
Lannan                  good,good,good,good,good
Zimmermann     good,good,great,good,great
Gorzelanny          bad,soso,bad->dl,bad,good

Relievers of Note and other News.

• So far, so good for Ryan Mattheus, who hasn’t given up a run in 3 appearances through 6/21.  He’s throwing the ball hard, he’s stranding inherited runners and he’s getting outs.  Everything you want from a middle reliever.
• Not good news for reliever Cole Kimball, who pitched through arm pain for weeks before “fessing up,” and now is being “shut down” for a couple of weeks because of continued pain.  Its still being reported as shoulder inflammation, but it sounds like it could be something much more serious.  Guys with 95mph fastballs and shoulder injuries don’t usually recover either.
• Chein-Ming Wang is *finally* going out on rehab, with a planned appearance in Hagerstown monday 6/27.  It is slightly surprising that he’s going to Hagerstown, meaning that our 5 excellent prospects there will have their rotation scrambled slightly.  I think he would have made more sense in Potomac, where the starters have been less impressive all season.  Wang’s beginning of rehab is significant; it starts the clock from a month downward before a major decision has to be made; he has no minor league options so at the end of the period he either joins the 25-man roster, goes back on the DL or gets released.

It is good to have the Face of the Franchise back. Photo unknown credit via fantasyknuckleheads.com

The Nats finally get Ryan Zimmerman back into a suddenly potent lineup, and continue their longest winning streak in several years.  How’d our guys fare heading into the weekend Interleague series with the Orioles?

Good

• Livan Hernandez pitched perhaps his best game in a Nats uniform on June 15th (box/gamer) against the powerful St. Louis lineup.  A 3-hit shutout.  Three errors and 4 bombs from his improving offense definitely helped, but he would have won this game even with his typical crummy run support.  Game score on the night: 87.  Nice.  (Verlander‘s no hitter on May 7th scored a 90, for comparison purposes).  For a nice overview of the Bill James Gamescore, and a list of the greatest pitching performances in National’s history, read Zuckerman‘s piece here.
• John Lannan continues to look like a different pitcher than earlier this season, throwing his sixth straight quality start in the St. Louis series finale on 6/16 (box/gamer).  He was denied the spoils of victory though, with Danny Espinosa‘s walkoff 3-run shot giving Burnett a victory.  The win pulled the Nats out of last place in the NL east for the first time this late in the season since perhaps 2005.
• While not quite as dominant as his past few starts, Jordan Zimmermann threw yet another quality start in saturday 6/18’s game versus Baltimore (box/gamer).  He went 6 1/3, giving up 2 runs on 8 hits for his 9th consecutive quality start.  In that time he’s driven his ERA from 4.55 to its current 3.08, good enough for 12th in the NL as of 6/19.  Can we say “second Ace” yet?

Bad

• Jason Marquis somehow willed his way out of 12 hits in less than 6 innings without giving up a dozen runs, settling for 4 against the Orioles on friday night (box/gamer).  The Orioles certainly did not hit well with RISP, and it cost them as the Nats bats continued to be hot and they extended their winning streak.
• Tom Gorzelanny‘s return from the DL was poor: he failed to get out of the 5th inning and got pounded by the Orioles to end the Nats 8-game winning streak on 6/19 (box/gamer).  He gave up 10 hits for 5 runs (4 earned) on the afternoon.  No strikeouts for the team’s leading k/9 guy, making you wonder if he’s rushed back from his injury.  His velocity seemed ok and he was pitching to contact … but the Orioles aren’t exactly a weak-hitting team.  We’ll have to hope for a stronger start next time out.

Starter Trends: Lannan and Zimmermann continue their hot streaks, Livan continues his yo-yo-ing of performances, and Marquis gets a win on a day he got hit around pretty badly.

MLB Trends (through gorzelanny 6/19)
Lhernandez         soso,soso,good,bad,great
Marquis                soso,good,good,good,bad
Lannan                  great,good,good,good,good
Zimmermann     good,good,good,great,good
Gorzelanny         good,bad,soso,bad->dl,bad

Relievers of Note

• Boy its nice to see a bullpen full of shut-down arms.  A quick glance at the ERA+ stats of our bullpen as of 6/19 offers up some pretty dominant figures.  Storen-159, Clippard-197, Rodriguez-219, Coffey-183, Mattheus-infinite (he’s yet to give up a run in two appearances).  Only Balester and Burnett have sub 100 figures.  The ERA+ is a bit deceptive for certain people (for example, Doug Slaten has a 179 figure despite a god-awful WHIP and a horrible inherited runners-scoring track record) but for the most part does a good job characterizing the performance of pitchers over the long haul.

Thoughts on the offense

• Rick Ankiel can’t seem to catch a break this season, going back on the DL to let a strained rib cage muscle heal properly.  The move was fortuitous for the Nats, who needed to activate Tom Gorzelanny to make his 6/20 start and offers a stay of execution for (likely) Brian Bixler on the active roster.
• 6 of the 8 starting hitters for this team now feature OPS+ stats > 100.  Only Desmond and Bernadina (who just missed out with a 95 OPS+) are struggling to join the hit parade.
• More importantly for our power-starved team, with 43% of the season gone we’ve got 4 players on pace to eclipse 20 homers on the season (Werth, Nix, Morse and Espinosa), and Zimmerman may pick up the pace and threaten that same mark.  Espinosa is noteworthy as the team leader, currently on pace for 27-28 homers during his rookie season, from the 2nd base position.  He may become a very valuable player indeed.

Are we about to see the last of Yunesky Maya? Photo: Al Bello/Getty Images via thenatsblog.com

In 5 starts last year; Yunesky Maya was 0-3 with a 5.88 era, a 1.577 whip and a very bad 69 ERA+.  The team lost all 5 games he pitched and he didn’t come close to even recording a quality start.

He was any one of a number of excuses.  He was “rusty.”  He was “rushed to the majors.”  He was “homesick” and he “missed his family.”  He was suffering from a “lack of competition.”  All those points were true.  The real test for Maya would be spring training 2011.

He failed to make the rotation out of the spring this past March, but you can’t fault him there.  The only rotational guy really in any jeopardy of not making the rotation (by virtue of contract or option status) was Jordan Zimmermann, and even then it was only if he was hurt.  So he (by some accounts) sulked to AAA and got pounded his first few starts before sucking it up and starting to pitch like a pro.  Because of Detwiler‘s sudden lack of performance in AAA, Maya was first to be called up to make a spot start when Gorzelanny got hurt.

All the 2010 excuses are now out the window.  He’s had a full spring, he’s rested, he should be in playing shape, and he had a bunch of AAA starts.  So, what happened?

He got lit up.  Again.

• 5/29: 6 hits and 2 walks in 4 2/3 innings.  His team bailed him out for a ND.
• 6/3: another 6 hits and 3 more walks in 4 innings plus.  His bullpen failed him and made his line look worse than it was, but still.  He took a loss and dropped his era to 8.00.
• 6/8: He actually looked great.  6ip, 4 hits, 1 run, albeit against a weaker hitting San Francisco team.  He got an early hook and his bullpen blew the game for him.
• 6/14: The coup-de-grace.  Finally going against a decent hitting team (St. Louis), Maya got pounded like a bullpen pitcher.  Only a 6run 7th inning from his offense bailed him out and gave him a ND.

Those first two starts were against San Diego and Arizona, two of the weakest hitting teams in the league.  He was clearly nibbling at the strike zone instead of commanding his pitches.  His one quality start was against San Francisco, also a weak hitting team (man that NL west just can’t hit!).  But notice what happened when he went up against a lineup of proven hitters: Pujols homer, Berkman homer, Rasmus rbi-double.  Thank god Holliday is hurt.

With Gorzelanny having finished a rehab start and looking to come back, Maya has been optioned back to AAA.

One of the reasons we drafted Maya was because of his reported “93-94” mph fastball.  That, as it turns out, as proven to be a complete myth.  Here’s his pitch f/x links for his 2011 starts:

• 5/29: 89.24mph average, a MAX speed of only 91.7.  He only looks like he even broke 90mph a handful of times on the night.
• 6/3: 88.7 average and ONLY 89.4 as a max.  89.4 as a max fastball for a right-handed starter in the major leagues?
• 6/8: 88.6 average, 90.6 max.  And this was his best game.
• 6/14: 89.1 average, max of 91.1.  The announcers said he had no movement, his fastball was flat, he was missing out over the plate and he had no control.

Yeah, he throws a gazillion different pitches.  Pitch f/x distinguishes between 6 of them, but he varies his arm slot on his fastballs and curves for even more variety.    But clearly he’s not throwing 93-94.  Whoever quoted that speed was probably on a fast gun at a stadium or was working on commission.

He’s had two shots at the big leagues and has badly underperformed both times.  If he had better stuff or commanded his pitches better, then his lack of velocity wouldn’t matter as much (see Hernandez, Livan as Exhibit 1-a).  But he doesn’t (have command), so he can’t (get around a lack of velocity).  Unfortunately for Maya and the team, it looks like his contract may be a bust.  When he goes back to AAA, it may be for good.  Perhaps he’ll make for a long-man/mop-up guy at some point.  But his career as a prospective Nationals starter seems done.

tation

Jordan Zimmermann is pitching like the "2nd ace" that we all have hoped for. Photo AP/Manuel Malce-Ceneta

The news this rotation is that Jason Marquis will drop his appeal of his undeserved 5-game suspension and serve it out.  Reason?  Because an off day in the schedule allows the rest of the starters to go on normal rest and Marquis will just move back in the rotation.  So next cycle will only have four of the five pitchers reviewed.

Good

• Jason Marquis pitched an efficient game on 6/9 (box/gamer) getting his 7th win.  6ip 3hits 1run 5k 3bb.
• John Lannan throws his fourth excellent start in a row on 6/11 (box/gamer) to get the win.  He’s now thrown four straight games with 0 or 1 run allowed and has lowered his season ERA to 3.60.  Line: 6 1/3, 6hits, 1run, 1k and 2 bbs.  Not a lot of Ks, but he didn’t need them.
• Jordan Zimmermann threw perhaps the best game any starter has thrown this year on 6/12 in San Diego (box/gamer).  7pm, 4 hits, 1 walk 0 runs and 10 strikeouts.  Too bad his team couldn’t score him any runs, so the win was left for Todd Coffey to clean up.  As was pointed out in another blog, his game score on the night was better than Strasburg‘s debut 14-k game last June.  This is Zimmermann’s 8th straight quality start, and his third straight start going 7 complete and giving up 0 or 1 runs.  You can’t ask more than that out of a starter.

Bad

• So it goes for Livan Hernandez: some good, some bad.  His start on 6/8 (box/gamer) was definitely in the bad category, getting peppered for 9 hits and 6 runs by the light-hitting Padres.
• Yunesky Maya certainly pitched his last Nationals game on 6/14 (box/gamer) for a while, and it was indicative of his previous outings.  He failed to finish 5, gave up 6 runs on 9 hits and looked completely overmatched against a good hitting team.  Stay tuned for a Maya-specific post coming up…

Starter Trends (last 5 starts only).  Lannan rebounding nicely, as is Marquis.  Zimmermann has been outer-worldly, while Maya is destined for a return to AAA.  Marquis continues to improve his trade value.

• Lhernandez      good,soso,soso,good,bad
• Marquis             bad,soso,good,good,good
• Lannan               bad,great,good,good,good
• Zimmermann  good,good,good,good,great
• Maya                   bad,soso,good,bad

Relievers of Note and other News.

• A recent spate of sub-par outings by guys in the bullpen has the team over-relying on Tyler Clippard and Drew Storen for late inning success.  We need to get Sean Burnett back in the saddle and pitching the way he did last year.  However the addition of the next guy may help.
• Ryan Mattheus gets his long awaited shot at the majors, having been added to the 40-man on 6/10/10.  Mattheus has been pitching in the minors since 2003, was our trade bounty for Joe Beimel in 2009 from the Rockies, and has fully come back from Tommy John surgery.  We were sitting at 39/40 on the 40-man after Broderick‘s dfa, so no corresponding move was needed.  His stuff looked pretty nasty during his debut on 6/14; he had a couple of Ks and looked pretty confident.  Per pitch f/x, he averaged 93 and hit 94.5 mph on his fastball and showed a huge gap between his fastball and off-speed stuff.  I’m not sure I believe that he showed 4 pitches (fast, curve, slider, change) but he definitely showed 2 fastballs (a 2 -seamer and 4-seamer) that both showed life, and he’s got a Clippard-esque delta from fastball to changeup.  If Mattheus turns into Clippard v2.0, I’d be very happy.
• Mattheus replaces Cole Kimball, who has “right shoulder inflammation”  and went on the 15-day DL.  Kimball has been pretty effective thus far, but is walking guys far too often and the rest may do him some good.  But as is apt to happen to guys getting their first shot at the bigs, he has been in pain since April and failed to tell anyone about it.  Now he’s got such bad rotator cuff inflammation he may not pitch for weeks.  Well, at least we get to see what Mattheus can do.
• Tom Gorzelanny pitched a rehab start in Syracuse on 6/13, putting him in line to re-take his rotational spot during this next cycle.  Per Ben Goessling, Gorzelanny is already back with the team and is ready to go.  Based on Maya’s last outing, I’m guessing Gorzelanny will be activated sunday morning to make his next start.

I’ve a bit behind on these rotation reviews, having captured the data but not really done any analysis.  Here’s the good/bad/soso from the 12th and 13th cycle.

During the 13th Rotation cycle, our crew had perhaps its best 5-day run since the first week of the season.  All five starts were strong.  Even Maya had a strong start, the first of his major league career.

Good

• Livan Hernandez was strong through 7 but gets loss on 6/4 (box/gamer).   Only 4 hits thru 7complete but his offense disappeared.
• Jason Marquis was excellent until he got ejected in rather ridiculous fashion on 6/5 (box/gamer).  He was ejected in a highly charged game featuring lots of HBPs and other bad blood between teams, but there’s just no way he was purposely hitting a guy on an 0-2 count.
• John Lannan looked great on 6/6 (box/gamer) but bullpen blew it.  7 innings, 4 hits and only 1 run.
• Jordan Zimmermann threw his 7th straight quality start on 6/7 (box/gamer).
• Yuniesky Maya had his best MLB start, by far, on 6/8 (box/gamer).  He got an early hook though and Burnett blew the game for him.

Relievers of Note News.

• The Nats placed Doug Slaten on the DL, called up Craig Stammen.  Slaten complained of “shooting elbow pain” that has lasted for 2 weeks, but one could see this as the continuation a convenient trend of the Nats using the DL to hide off their underperforming players.

The 12th rotation cycle started on a blisteringly hot Memorial day at the park, where the temperatures neared 100.  The Phillies were in town, which meant an invasion of Roy Halladay-jersey wearing obnoxiousness.  To make matters worse, the Nats were lined up to go against the #1-2-3 starters on the best rotation ever constructed.  How’d we fare?

Good

• Jason Marquis pitched very effectively while his teammates battered Cliff Lee for 6 runs on 5/31 (box/gamer) and he got the well deserved victory.  Line: 6 1/3, 2 runs, 8 hits, 0 walks, 4 Ks.
• John Lannan put 8 guys on in 5 1/3 innings and worked in and out of jams in pretty much every inning, but allowed only one unearned run and got his first ever victory over Philadelphia in the series finale on 6/1 (box/gamer).  A tough third game to a tough series (hot streak, two day games out of three throwing off everyone’s sleep patterns).
• Another excellent start from Jordan Zimmermann, opening up the Arizona series on 6/2 (box/gamer) with a 7inning 1run performance.  Line: 7ip, 6hits, 1run, 4ks and 1 walk.  I’d love to get an interview with Steve McCatty and find out if Zimmermann has changed his approach; he’s striking out guys at a 33% lower rate than last year.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• Livan Hernandez opposed Roy Halladay on 5/30 (box/gamer) and did his best to keep his team in the game.  He ends up with a no decision, giving up 4 runs in 6 1/3.  He nearly pitched his way out of the game in the third, when the Phillies strung together 5 straight hits (including two solo homers).  In typical Livan fashion, he worked his way out of the jam and then pitched 3 more scoreless innings.  The offense (amazingly) really got to Halladay, and its a shame the bullpen dropped the ball after getting 4 runs on the best pitcher in baseball.
• I’m not quite ready to judge Yunesky Maya‘s 2nd (and presumably last) start as completely bad.  I think he was just unlucky, and possibly the victim of a trigger-happy manager addicted to matchup managing.  Instead of letting Maya try to get out of his own jam, he brought in Doug “The firestarter” Slaten to throw three straight balls, then groove a 3-0 fastball for a bases-clearing triple.

Relievers of Note and other Pitcher News.

• Sean Burnett blew Livan’s win for him on Monday, and has really struggled this year.  Adam Kilgore reports that Riggleman is standing by his guy, which I suppose is admirable considering the distinct lack of left-handed reliever talent we have in the system right now (in case you’re wondering, that’s close to zero.  Check out our lefty-reliever depth at this link here).
• Mark Zuckerman reports that Chien-Ming Wang is (finally) ready to leave extended spring training and go out on a rehab assignment.  This means he’s going to supplant a starter, somewhere in the system.  I’d guess he’s going to Potomac to start, as they seem to have the least-performing collection of starters right now and he’d completely overmatch the younger hitters in low-A.  The implication of his going out on a rehab assignment is this: he only gets 30 days in the minors (probably about 6 starts) before the Nats have to make a decision on what to do with him.  He has no minor league options, so in 30 days he either joins the 25-man roster, goes back on the DL or is DFA’d.  After all we’ve invested in him (and for the sake of his career), I’m hoping he still has something left.

Thoughts on the offense (dated 5/31, but still applicable right now).

All of a sudden, we have what looks like a halfway decent offense.  As of 5/31, here’s the OPS+ figures of our starting 8 out-field players:

• C: Wilson Ramos, 105
• 1B: Michael Morse, 128
• 2B: Danny Espinosa: 112
• SS: Ian Desmond: 73
• 3B: Jerry Hairston Jr: 85
• LF: Laynce Nix: 148
• CF: Roger Bernadina: 75
• RF: Jayson Werth: 117

When Ryan Zimmerman comes back (he’s sitting at 185 through 37 plate appearances) we’d have 6 of 8 positional players being above the mlb average at the plate.  That’s really good 🙂

Welcome Back Maya; will your 2nd stint be better than your 1st? Photo: via thenatsblog.com

We enter the 11th “cycle” of the rotation.  Through the first 10 times through the rotation, only Livan and Lannan have made all their starts.  Gorzelanny (as the 5th starter) missed the first rotation, Marquis missed a game in the 4th cycle because of the proliferation of DHs and rainouts, and Zimmermann missed the 5/17 phantom rain-out.

Big news this cycle: Tom Gorzelanny is going on the DL after his last start with “elbow inflammation.”  He was erratic in his last start, but this comes with no warning of any previous elbow issues.  Sunday will require someone to come up from AAA.  My guess is Maya (confirmed with his call up and 5/29 start), based partly on performance and partly because Meyers (the most deserving AAA starter) probably needs a bit more seasoning and isn’t on the 40-man.  I’m sure the team would like to keep him off the roster as long as possible at this point.  Maya last pitched on Monday, which would give him 5 days rest.  Detwiler would be going on regular rest but has not been pitching well at all.

Good

• John Lannan had nothing to show for easily his best performance on the year 5/27 (box/gamer), with Drew Storen getting both the blown save and the win when Michael Morse hit a walkoff homer.  Lannan’s line: 7 2/3, 2 hits, 0 runs, 2 walks and 5 Ks.  The performance couldn’t have come at a better time for Lannan,
• Jordan Zimmermann put in another quality start on 5/28 (box/gamer), and once again failed to get any run support.  Line: 6ip 5h 2run 1bb 4ks.

Bad

• Yunesky Maya didn’t capitalize on his 2nd shot at the major league rotation on 5/29 (box/gamer), struggling and tiring (?) in the 5th inning before getting removed.  Final line: 4 2/3, 6 hits, 4 runs, 2 walks 3 Ks.  Maya was at 90 pitches when he got the hook.  He’ll have at least one more start before Gorzelanny comes off the DL; unless he pitches 6 shutout innings or something close to it, he’s heading back.  There’s no one else (even Lannan) who is in danger of losing their spot right now.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• Livan Hernandez had the quality start on 5/24 (box/gamer) (the first time in a while he’s gotten any sort of run support), but his bullpen conspired against him and the Nats took the loss.
• Jason Marquis leaked hits and walks all day, and gave up a homer to his counterpart Zack Greinke, en route to  his 2nd loss on the season on 5/25 (box/gamer).

Starter Trends

MLB Trends (through maya 5/29)
Lhernandez    good,bad,good,good,bad,good,soso,bad,good,good,soso
Marquis    good,good,good,soso,great,bad,good,soso,bad,soso
Lannan    good,soso,soso,bad,soso,good,really bad,good,soso,bad,bad,great
Zimmermann     good,good,good,bad,bad,good,good,great,good,good
Maya        bad
(Gorzelanny    soso,good,soso,good,great,good,bad,soso,bad->dl)