Nationals Arm Race

Zimmermann keeps looking better and better post TJ surgery. Photo Manuel Balce-Ceneta/AP

The Nats are in the midst of quite a struggle right now, both offensively and defensively.   3 really “bad” pitching performances to go with two good ones (both of which ended in losses).

Good

• Livan Hernandez became the latest pitcher to suffer through the Nats offensive woes, giving up just 1 run in 7 innings but taking the 1-0 loss during 5/19’s day game (gamer/box).  His team was completely shut down by the Mets backup #5 pitcher, who had a no-hitter through 5.
• Jordan Zimmerman pitched well enough to win on 5/22 (box/gamer), going through the first 6 innings scoreless and relatively unscathed, but made a mistake to Vladimir Guerrero in the 7th that ended up in the seats and gave his offensively challenged team another loss.

Bad

• Jason Marquis struggled badly, and was hurt by a Bernadina dropped flyball that was scored as a double, and was lifted after 4 in Baltimore on friday 5/20 (box/gamer).  Luckily the Nationals did a week’s worth of scoring and got the win.  His line: 4ip, 8hits, 5 runs (all earned with the badly scored Bernadina play), 3 walks and 2ks.  Upon learning that he was getting the hook prior to qualifying for the win, Marquis was highly upset.  My take?  You cannot give up 5 runs in 4 innings and expect to continue in a game.  I’m sorry; if you wanted to get that win, you needed to pitch better.
• John Lannan had a game of ups and downs on 5/21 (box/gamer); he had several clean innings, but also had a couple of bad innings.  He gave up 4 straight hits in an inning in which he’d already given up a 2-run homer to give Baltimore all they’d need to take the game.  The “meltdown” start pushes Lannan’s ERA over 5.00 and will increase calls for his demotion/replacement.
• Tom Gorzelanny got hit hard, often and deep in the 5/23 Milwaukee game (box/gamer).   5ip, 8 hits (3 of which were homers), good for 6 earned runs and the loss.  His 6ks were incidental and the damage was done early.

Starter Trends (last 5 starts only)

Lhernandez    good,soso,bad,good,good
Marquis    great,bad,good,soso,bad
Lannan    really bad,good,soso,bad,bad
Zimmermann     bad,good,good,great,good
Gorzelanny    great,good,bad,soso,bad

Relievers of Note

• Riggleman took advantage of the ridiculous 17-5 Baltimore win to get “Mr Low Leverage Reliever” Henry Rodriguez some work.  He went three innings (three!), gave up a couple of hits but had 3Ks and zero walks, a very good sign.
• Cole Kimball had his first mediocre outing on 5/21, allowing both his inherited runners to score and giving up 4 straight hits to the heart of Baltimore’s order.
• Brian Broderick‘s DFA was dated 5/14, and teams have 10 days to finalize that assignment.  We’ve heard no word on possible negotiations with St. Louis to keep Broderick up to this point, and odds are that no other team would claim him at this point (any claim would mean the claiming team would ALSO have to keep the Rule5 draftee on their active roster for the duration of the season).  I wonder if he’s about to be returned outright to St. Louis.  Update: Broderick was re-claimed by St. Louis on 5/24, ending the rule5 draftee’s Washington experiment.

Thoughts on the offense

I’m not sure what the answer is (since there’s basically nothing at AAA or AA that we could call up to augment the offense), but the downturn of the offense is getting to be ridiculous.  There’s a guy in my fantasy baseball league whose strategy is to just pick up whatever pitcher is going against the Nats, because he knows he’ll get a great outing.  Sure enough, Dillon Gee, who is probably owned in 0% of fantasy leagues, threw up this line on 5/19: 7 2/3s innings, 3 hits, 2 bbs, 3 Ks and zero runs.  Those are the kind of lines that win fantasy championships.

This is what the Park could have looked like during 5/17's "rainout." Ridiculous. Photo: AndrewClem.com

Note: Tuesday’s “rainout” of the Nats-Pirates game allowed the team to just skip Jordan Zimmermann’s start, so we’ve only got four outings in this period’s “starter cycle.”

Good

• Livan Hernandez was out-dueled for the 2nd time in a week by Anibal Sanchez on 5/14 (box/gamer), and took a loss in a game that he pitched pretty well.  line: 7ip, 6hits, 1 run.  He follows up a bad performance with a good one, as is his custom.

Bad

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• Jason Marquis may officially have a quality start in the books for his 5/15 victory over the Marlins (box/gamer) but at least one of the two earned runs he gave up in in the top of the 2nd was really “earned” and not a result of the throwing error that put Sanchez on base.  Its one of the many reasons that ERA is misleading in many cases.  That being said: he went 6 2/3, runs (2 earned), 6 hits and a walk and 2ks.  The victory makes him 5-1 on the season and should do nothing to stem the trade rumors that are sure to start dogging him now that the season is a quarter finished.
• John Lannan didn’t figure into the decision on 5/16, but he pitched decently enough (box/gamer).  Line: 6 1/3 ip, 7 hits and 4 bbs, 2 runs and 4ks.  It counts as a “good” quality start but he was putting guys on all day.  101 pitches but only 54 for strikes, indicated by the 4 walks.  He’s got a 1.6 whip on the season right now and one has to wonder if a hot starter in AAA would jeopardize his rotation spot at some point in the future.
• Tom Gorzelanny‘s 5/18 outing was hard to judge, given the weather conditions (box/gamer).  He got knocked out of the game in the 6th, having given up 8 hits and 5 walks (2 of which were intentional, but still.  One of the IBBs was done because Gorzelanny threw away a pickoff attempt, the other because he gave up a leadoff single that was stranded at 2nd).  Nearly a 2.00 whip on the day.   But it was pouring rain most of the night and both pitchers must have been struggling with their grips and control.

Starter Trends

Lhernandez    good,bad,good,good,bad,good,soso,bad,good
Marquis    good,good,good,soso,great,bad,good,soso
Lannan    good,soso,soso,bad,soso,good,really bad,good,soso
Zimmermann     good,good,good,bad,bad,good,good,great
Gorzelanny    soso,good,soso,good,great,good,bad,soso

Relievers of Note

• Cole Kimball‘s first two appearances ended with identical lines: 1ip, 1bb, 1k, nothing else.  His first appearance was in a one-run game, his second in a 4-run outing so as to save Storen’s arm.  Per pitch f/x, Kimball was throwing 93, maxing at 94.9 and throwing mostly fastballs.  There’s a massive delta between his fastball and his curve speed.  He has 4 pitches (being a former starter) but we are only really seeing 2 of them right now.  The fact that Riggleman immediately put Kimball into a one-run game within 12 hours of his call-up is as clear an indictment of Henry Rodriguez‘s continued place in the bullpen as can be said.

Thoughts on the offense

• Ankiel‘s injury may prove to be somewhat of a Wally Pipp injury, if Roger Bernadina continues to perform has he has been.   His slash line as of 5/15 is .321/.424/.393 and we’re seeing zero drop-off with his defense, high lighted by this amazing catch on 5/13 (a catch that I couldn’t believe he made either).  Its nice to see both Bernadina and Laynce Nix making statements and taking control of positions that they both “lost” in spring training.

Maybe its the 2011 haircut that is the source of Lannan’s mediocre start. Photo: Luis M. Alvarez/AP via www.timesunion.com

In his latest outing (5/16 against the Pirates), John Lannan worked around 11 base-runners in 6 and a third innings and only gave up 2 runs (one being inherited and allowed to score by Cole Kimball).  Four walks conspired to cause Lannan grief all afternoon, as well as only throwing 54 of 101 pitches for strikes.  However in the end, it was a quality start and kept the team in the game.

But are we seeing a gradual breakdown in Lannan overall?  After getting sent down in 2010, he had masterful numbers upon his return (6-3 record with a 3.42 era and 1.24 whip in his last 10 starts in 2010).  But he has not been able to carry these numbers into 2011.  Right now, his season long 2011 numbers are WORSE than his combined stats from last year, and despite only really having one egregiously bad outing (2ip, 6runs) his supporting stats are getting to be really concerning.  Here’s what concerns me specifically:

• 1.615 whip.  That’s just way too many base-runners.
• 26ks and 22bbs in 47 IP.

Perhaps I’m being nit-picky; his ERA (4.53) is almost exactly in line with his FIP and xFIP (4.50 and 4.56 respectively) meaning he’s pitching exactly as expected.  His BABIP is .323, meaning he’s been unlucky and is due for a regression of seeing-eye singles costing him hits and base-runners.  His game scores throughout the season have been relatively consistent (mostly 40s and 50s; his high on the season has been 54 and his 5/16 game was a 51).

But, more importantly, even if Lannan is the first in line to be replaced out of our current rotation, we don’t really have anyone in AAA quite yet deserving of the promotion.

The incumbent seemed to be Ross Detwiler, but he’s really struggling so far this year in AAA.  $8M man Yunesky Maya started slow and is coming around, but I want to see more Ks out of him.  Tom Milone‘s k/bb ratio is fantastic but he’s not on the 40-man (though we seem to have an empty spot right now, so perhaps that’s a non-issue).  Newly promoted Brad Meyers needs a few more AAA starts for seasoning but the evidence is there (especially after he dominated AA early in the season); his problem is lack of 40-man status as well.  Lastly Craig Stammen believe it or not may have the best case of them all; best whip, decent numbers, and outside of one bad start has been solid, but he seems to have the least “investment” of any of the starters in Syracuse and seems more likely destined for the bullpen than the MLB rotation.

Interesting decisions lay ahead, especially if Lannan has a couple bad outings in a row.  Remember; Lannan has minor league options (two of them if I read his transactions correctly).  It isn’t really a good statement to option a former opening day starter, but the team has to do what is best.

Washington won the first two games of the Florida series, but still faced a very difficult trip to Atlanta, where they are set to face the cream of the Braves’ rotation.  How did they do?

Good

• Jason Marquis got the Atlanta Series off to a nice start, pitching into the 8th on 5/10 for a victory over Tim Hudson (box/gamer).  He retired the first 9 he faced, made a mistake to Martin Prado that turned into a 4th inning homer, worked out of a jam in the 5th then cruised through 7 complete.  Two hits in the 8th turned into 2 more runs, spoiling his otherwise good line: 7 1/3, 7 hits, 2 walks, 3 runs, 3ks.
• John Lannan is an enigma; he followed up last week’s abomination with a good quality start against a playoff team in Atlanta on 5/11 (box/gamer).  Line: 6ip,5hits, 2 runs, 3bbs and 3ks.
• Jordan Zimmermann had a very dominant 103 pitch outing on 5/12 (box/gamer): 6 1/3, 5 hits, 3 runs, 2bbs and 11Ks.  Two of those 3 runs were inherited and allowed to score by Burnett.  The other was a solo HR from Chipper Jones that he absolutely crushed after Zimmermann *barely* missed with two well thrown sliders to run the count 2-0.  He missed his spot by a foot and Jones crushed it.  Our the poorly constructed bullpen conspired to blow the 4 run lead they had been given in the 7th and eventually leaked in the winning run to blow one of the better outings we’ve had out of a starter all year.

Bad

• Livan Hernandez may have reached 5 complete innings in Florida on Sunday 5/8, but he got hammered on the way there (box/gamer).  Final line: 5ip, 8hits, 2 walks, only 2Ks and 6 earned runs.  The Umpire wasn’t giving Livan the corners, and the Florida hitters just waited out his batting practice-speed fastballs to come over the plate.  Livan’s counterpart didn’t seem to mind the umpiring; Anibel Sanchez had a no-hitter through 7 and struck out 11.
• Tom Gorzelanny couldn’t get out of the 5th on 5/13 (box/gamer), putting up an unsightly line: 4 2/3ip, 8hits and a walk leading to 4 runs.  He got torched by the (very tough) first half of Florida’s lineup in the first and Riggleman yanked him when he got into trouble again in the 5th.  He was already on 88 pitches when departing.

Starter Trends

MLB Trends (through gorz 5/13)
Lhernandez    good,bad,good,good,bad,good,soso,bad,good
Marquis    good,good,good,soso,great,bad,good
Lannan    good,soso,soso,bad,soso,good,really bad,good
Zimmermann     good,good,good,bad,bad,good,good,great
Gorzelanny    soso,good,soso,good,great,good,bad

Relievers of Note

• Here’s Henry Rodriguez‘s outing on Sunday 5/8: 6 batters faced, 3 walks, 2 wild pitches, one weak grounder and two strike outs.  1 inning pitched, 1 earned run on zero hits.  27 pitches but only NINE for strikes.  This is just NOT going to cut it.  Further evidence as seen in the 5/12 game, further commented here.
• Is Sean Burnett suddenly becoming a liability out of the pen?  He retired no-one on 5/10, helping to nearly blow a 6-run lead.  He had several clean outings before that, but a stretch in mid-april has his season era near 6.00.  He’s not getting nearly the K/9 rates that he was last year (4.0 this year versus 8.9 last year).  Is his arm hurt?
• How about Drew Storen?  Riggleman still won’t commit to him as the closer, but actions speak louder than words.  As of 5/11’s game (where he earned the win by being the pitcher of record when the team scored 4 in the 11th) he’s pitched 20 2/3 innings and given up ONE run.  And we were worried about him coming out of spring training?  For all those who are talking about whether or not he’s not as “good” as Aaron Crow, you’re crazy.  Give me a shutdown closer over a middle reliever who couldn’t hack it as a starter in the minors any day.

Thoughts on the offense

Riggleman is starting to make the right decisions by playing Wilson Ramos and Laynce Nix more and more, and they’re 2 of the best 3 producing offensive players we have right now.  Its a small sample size, but Roger Bernadina looks like he may stick in the leadoff/center field spot even when Ankiel is back.

Why exactly was Slaten left in to pitch 2+ innings last night? Photo Getty Images via zimbio.com

There’s no other way to put it, after watching the unfolding of last night’s bullpen meltdown; carrying Brian Broderick and Henry Rodriguez on this team is having the effect of shortening the bullpen from 7 guys to 5, and is costing this team wins by not allowing Jim Riggleman to put in the right guys at the right time.

WP Beat reporter Adam Kilgore put it more politely, calling the carrying of two essentially worthless pitchers an “unusual roster construction.”  You know what I call it?  A GM who is hand-cuffing his manager.

I have complained in this space several times (mostly summed up here in this March 2011 post) about the implications of the Nats having 3 of their 12 pitchers (Tom Gorzelanny in addition to Broderick and Rodriguez) be essentially “locked” onto the 25-man active roster.  Its one of my main criticisms of the Josh Willingham deal in general; see my post for more opinion but to have only a right handed reliever who your manager cannot use in return for your #5 hitter of the past two years is my definition of a trade failure).  Gorzelanny has pitched much better than anticipated and his roster spot hasn’t been questioned (though for me, that wasn’t always the case either).

To say nothing of this plain fact: If you can’t trust a reliever to come into a close game and get outs, then he should NOT BE ON THE ROSTER.  Its as simple as that.  And clearly neither Broderick or Rodriguez currently falls into that category.

What is the answer?  Mike Rizzo needs to do three things, almost immediately:

1. Invent another “injury” and put Rodriguez back on the DL.  Send him to extended spring, put him back on rehab assignments and tell him he needs to either throw strikes or take a hike.
2. Call St. Louis’ GM and work out a PTBNL trade for Broderick.  Enough is enough; he projects as a #5 starter (maybe) on a team that has 4 good starters.  Is he really part of the future for this team?  Is he going to be better than any of Detwiler, Maya, Meyers, Solis, or Peacock in 2012?  Because that’s who he’s competing with for rotation spots in 2012 (figuring that at least 3 are already spoken for in Strasburg, Zimmermann and Gorzelanny).  Trade for him so you can option him to Syracuse.
3. With these two spots opened up, recall Collin Balester and call up Cole Kimball so you can actually have two useful guys in your pen who you can trust.  If you’re so in love with Rodriguez’s power, Kimball throws nearly as hard and has put up far better bb/9 numbers in AAA.  Balester has been in the majors before, put up great numbers in 2010 out of the pen, and can pitch long relief if needed as a former starter.

Its time for Rizzo to acknowledge his errors in roster construction and fix them.

(As an aside: Jim Riggleman is not totally without fault here: per Ben Goessling‘s report last night, “Todd Coffey and Tyler Clippard [needed] a night off and Drew Storen [was] being saved for a lead.”  Why let Sean Burnett stay in to get out one of Atlanta’s best hitters in Martin Prado?  Why not bring in Storen at this point and use him as the “fireman?”  Is it because he’s the “closer” and you save your closer for save situations?  I certainly hope this wasn’t his thinking.  A managers *should* use his best relievers in the highest leverage situations, and last night Storen should have been used to get out of a bases loaded jam against a tough right-handed hitter, instead of leaving in a lefty who has struggled lately.  But, this post is more about roster construction than reliever use, a topic for another day, and a larger issue in baseball in general).

Rodriguez getting ready to fire in another pitch that he has no idea where its going. Photo via humorfeast.blogspot.com

Here’s Henry Rodriguez‘s outing on Sunday 5/8: 6 batters faced, 3 walks, 2 wild pitches, one weak grounder and two strike outs.  1 inning pitched, 1 earned run on zero hits.  27 pitches but only NINE for strikes.

This gives him, as of Sunday, a grand total of 5 innings pitched on the year.  In those 5 innings he’s only given up 1 run (today’s) and three hits.  He also has 7 strikeouts in those 5 innings.  But he now has 6 walks and 3 wild pitches in those same 5 innings.  His ERA may be nifty (1.80) but his WHIP is the same (1.80), which is really bad for a late-innings reliever.

Adding insult to injury, as Steven at FJB pointed out tonight, Steve McCatty and Jim Riggleman’s comments about the reliever are rather ridiculous.  Per WashingtonTimes.com beat reporter Amanda Comak‘s story, Riggleman said that Rodriguez “needs to get sharper before we can get him into bigger spots.”  Hmm; isn’t that what spring training is for?  Oh yeah, Rodriguez showed up 3-weeks late, but the Nats couldn’t do jack about it except invent an injury to stash him on the DL to start the season since he’s out of options despite a grand total of 36 mlb innings in his career.

He’s now replaced Brian Broderick as the lowest-leverage use reliever in the Nats bullpen.  In other words, the guy you would be least likely to bring into a close game.  For a team already carrying a rule-5 reliever, this shortening of the bullpen means that manager Jim Riggleman is now basically playing with a 5-man pen on any night where the team has a lead or the game is close.  And, as noted several times in this space, Rodriguez’s lack of options handcuffs the team’s roster flexibility.

How about the other player we got in the Willingham deal?  Corey Brown?  Oh, he’s hitting .202 in AAA.  But, he’s gotten hits in his last four games, so there’s that.

Yes, we are talking about small sample sizes.  We’re only 5 weeks into the season.  But no matter how slowly Willingham is starting off himself in Oakland, he’s still out-performing our current left field platoon.  Oh, and his 5 homers would be leading the team, and his 104 ops+ would be 3rd best on the squad (behind injured Ryan Zimmerman and part-time catcher Wilson Ramos).

Did Rizzo make a god-awful deal?  Or is it too early?  Or do I keep needing to tell myself, “hey, this team isn’t winning in 2011, so this is the best season to experiment with guys like Rodriguez to see what you have?”  Sure; i tell myself that all the time.  But this team has potential; they’re nearly .500 despite their horrible offense.

But in the end, it seems to me that we’ve traded our #5 hitter, a guy who always produced for us and who was a popular clubhouse guy, for a reliever we can’t use, and a minor league outfielder who’s in danger of getting benched in Syracuse.

Gorzelanny, our #5 pitcher, is starting to look like our #1. Photo Ed Wolfstein

After a surprising 3-1 series at home against San Francisco, and after a fantastic run through the rotation, the team hits the road for 3 straight divisional series away and a set of games that could easily define their season.  How did our pitchers fare?  Not terribly well.  A sweep in Philadelphia gave the team a worst-case start to this critical road trip, but they then took two of the first three in Florida (surprisingly; they’ve been awful in Miami for years).

Here’s how our pitchers looked this go-around:

Good

• Jordan Zimmermann may not have gotten the win for his 5/6 outing (box/gamer) but he pitched pretty well.  6ip, 2 runs for a “real” quality start.  Zimmermann’s k/9 rate is way way down from his performances in the past; he’s only got 24 in 41 innings.  By way of comparison in 2010 he had 27 in 31 on the comeback trail, and in 2009 he had 92 in 91 innings.  Unless he’s purposely pitching to contact this drastic reduction in Ks/9 is worrisome.
• Tom Gorzelanny had his third straight good-to-great outing, beating the Marlins on 5/7 (box/gamer).  He only gave up 2 hits through 7 innings, though a walk and a homer tagged him with 2 earned runs.  Gorzelanny is turning into a find for this team.  He’s the only starter who has yet to really have a bad outing and continues to pitch really well.

Bad

• Jason Marquis couldn’t follow up on his 5-hit gem and got pounded at the “Link” in Philadelphia on 5/4 (box/gamer).  Line: 5ip, 10hits (!), 7runs (6 of which were earned) and only 2ks.  Ugh.  His first “meltdown” of the season.
• If Marquis’ start was bad, then I guess John Lannan‘s needs a new category.  Lannan becomes the first Nats pitcher not to complete the 5th inning this season, only lasting 2 innings in an ugly 5/5 loss (gamer/box).  Line: 6runs on 7 hits in 2innings completed (he faced 6 consecutive batters without retiring one to open the 3rd inning).

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• Livan Hernandez is Mr YoYo.  One good outing, one medicore one.  One great outing, then one bad.  On Tuesday 5/3 he had an off night (gamer/box), getting battered around for 10 hits and an additional 4 walks (two of which were intentional, and one of THOSE was clearly against his wishes when facing Ryan Howard).  In the end, it wouldn’t have mattered since his offense mustered only one run (on a solo shot from Michael Morse).  Final line: 6 1/3, 10hits, 4 runs, 4 bb, 4ks and a loss.

Starter Trends

MLB Trends (through 5/7)
Lhernandez    good,bad,good,good,bad,good,soso
Marquis    good,good,good,soso,great,bad
Lannan    good,soso,soso,bad,soso,good,really bad
Zimmermann     good,good,good,bad,bad,good,good
Gorzelanny    soso,good,soso,good,great,good

Relievers of Note

• One day after a relatively electrifying MLB debut for the team, Henry Rodriguez showed what we can probably expect in the longer term.  On 4/30, he threw 11 fastballs that averaged 98.7mph and got two strikeouts in a clean 1 inning of work.  On 5/3 he threw 24 pitches, walked two guys, allowed a hit and got no strikeouts.  He showed a change up (a 90mph changeup, nice), but could not control his slider.  I think the jury is still out on this guy.  But he had to be a pretty amazing change of pace after Livan for 6 innings.  On 5/5 he got stretched out a bit but had another typical up and down session; 2 hits and a walk and 3Ks in 2 innings.
• Tyler Clippard had a pretty good line on friday 5/5: 6 batters faced, 6 strike outs.  Adam Kilgore reviewed the outing here.  He now has 27 Ks in 21 innings so far and an ERA+ of 301 on the season.
• Storen continues to be electric in the closer role.  He’s given up just one earned run in 17 appearances thus far, good for an 805 ERA+.  Can’t ask much more out of your fireman.

Thoughts on the offense

The continued deficiency of the offense is reaching troubling areas.  We’re a month into the season; no more excuses about “slow starts” or “getting back into the swing of it.”  As of 5/7, the team is 5-17 when scoring four runs or less (and 10-0 when scoring five or more).  This sounds great; all we need to do is score 5 or more runs a game and we’re the ’29 Yankees.  If your offense is already struggling, and they know they have to score a ton of runs to have a shot, team morale could fade fast.

Overall Summary

Amazingly, the team hovers near .500 despite having the 15th or 16th NL ranked offense in most categories.  They’re batting as a team 79 OPS+, putting them 20% below average.  Rick Ankiel is taking his .221 batting average onto the DL for a couple weeks, giving Roger Bernadina his best yet chance to own Center field and the leadoff position.  If he were to succeed, it may be a great kick start for the team.

Marquis' 5-hit shutout is the best outing we've seen since Strasburg. Photo: Ap via silive.com

The team is rocked by the news that star Ryan Zimmerman will miss another 6 weeks, on top of the last 17 games he’s already missed, due to a torn abdominal muscle.  To add insult to injury, the team is in a very difficult part of the schedule (SF at home, then away to Philadelphia, Florida and Atlanta 3 series in a row) that could very well see them plummet to the basement of the division.  Can their rotation help keep them near .500?

Good

• As he tends to do, Livan Hernandez followed up a sub-par outing with an excellent one, going 8 complete innings (Washington’s longest starter outing of the year), giving up 3 runs (2 earned) and spelling the burned-out bullpen in a 4-3 win over the Mets in the 4/28 series finale (box/gamer).  Livan gave up 7 hits and a walk to go with 5 strikeouts on the night.  He’s now averaging 6.5 IP per start (best on the staff) and though his Fip/Xfip are slightly worst than MLB median he’s holding steady for the team.
• Jason Marquis put in easily the best start of the season, and his best start for this team, pitching a 5-hit shutout on 4/29 (box/gamer).  He struck out 7, walked none, and needed just 96 pitches to finish off the light-hitting Giants.  The defeat of the Giants and ace Tim Lincecum continued an interesting pattern for the team of competing well against the opposing team’s ace (they’re 4-2 against the nominal “ace” of opposing rotations, beating Lincecum, Josh Johnson, Yovanni Gallardo, and Kevin Correia while falling to Derek Lowe and Roy Halladay).  If Marquis continues to pitch this well, the Nats could face a difficult decision later on in the season (trade or re-sign?).
• John Lannan pitched 6 very efficient innings before fading in the 7th long enough to give up a 2nd run, which proved to be enough to get him the loss on Saturday 4/30’s day game (box/gamer).  Final line: 6 2/3, 6 hits, 3 walks (one intentional) and 2 runs.  But he had given up just 4 hits and zero walks through 6 complete, a very dominant performance.  The 7th came apart on him very quickly, and he managed to load the bases and walk in the go-ahead run before Clippard could take the mound and escape the jam.  Riggleman called for a somewhat questionable intentional walk before Lannan managed to walk in the winning run.
• Jordan Zimmerman‘s line wasn’t that dominant for Sunday 5/1’s game (box/gamer); 6ip, 6hits, 2 walks, 4ks and 2 runs.  However watching the game you got a different story.  Both runs scored by virtue of a fluke-y bloop double that hit the left field line from a weak-hitting left-handed hitter.  One of the walks was intentional.  And 3 of the 6 hits he gave up were either infield singles or weakly hit balls.  So Jordan gets a quality start and his 2nd best game score of the season.
• Tom Gorzelanny nearly matched Marquis’ gem with his 8-inning, 3-hit and no walk performance on Military night, 5/1 (box/gamer).  The game took his season ERA down a full run (from 3.97 to 2.93).  I had to quibble a bit with the in-game management though from Riggleman; see this op-ed piece for my thoughts.

Trends

MLB Trends (through 5/2)
Lhernandez    good,bad,good,good,bad,good
Lannan    good,soso,soso,bad,soso,good
Zimmermann     good,good,good,bad,bad,good
Marquis    good,good,good,soso,great
Gorzelanny    soso,good,soso,good,great

Thoughts on the offense

• Laynce Nix is starting to make a statement for this team, putting up a 150 OPS+ through part time action thus far.  He made his biggest statement yet in Friday’s start against Lincecum, punishing an 0-2 mistake from the young San Francisco Ace for an early 2-run homer.  However it was a foul-ball blast later in the game that everyone is talking about; Nix absolutely crushed an inside fastball about 10-feet foul, but it glanced off the THIRD deck of the Nats stadium.  Estimates put it at 450 feet or so, an incredible distance at a stadium that has seen scant balls hit in that area.  WP beat writer Adam Kilgore discussed this same point in the NatsJournal blog friday.  Nix gets so few at bats versus lefties that it is difficult to ascertain how his splits look, but with Mike Morse continuing to struggle (he’s not even slugging .300 from the left fielder spot) it may behoove the team to roll the dice and give Nix some full time opportunities.
• Can someone explain the role that Matt Stairs so excellently fulfills that he deserves a 25-man roster spot and $850k?  He gets 4 at bats a week, has yet to get a hit, and has more strikeouts than walks.  Wouldn’t there be more value in putting a player on the roster in his place who could actually *help* the team?

Overall Summary

All 5 starters threw what i’d call “good” or “great” starts, and the team went 4-1 in those starts.  That’s great news.  The hitters continue to struggle, with 6 of our 8 regulars hitting .233 or below.  These guys need to snap out of it soon.

If you let Gorzelanny bat in the 7th .. then why don't you let him finish the game? Photo: AP

I was lucky enough to be in attendance at Monday, 5/1’s Nats win over the Giants and saw Tom Gorzelanny‘s best performance of the year.

However, once again I had to question the in-game management from Jim Riggleman.  Gorzelanny was cruising along and sat at somewhere around 78 pitches through 7 innings, having only given up 2 hits.  Meanwhile Madison Bumgarner had absolutely shut down the Nationals, perfect through four and having only given up one hit through 6.  In the bottom of the 7th, Miguel Tejada blows a simple 2-out grounder that opened the floodgates and allowed 2 runs to score (I was there; it was a blatant error and the crowd actually boo’d the official scorer giving the play a hit).

Suddenly, the Nats have the bases loaded situation against a pitcher clearly on the ropes … only the pitcher’s spot is coming up.  What does Riggleman do?  He lets Gorzelanny bat, lefty-against-lefty, with the bases loaded and 2 outs.  Predictably he weakly grounds out to the pitcher to end the rally.

So, old-school types would say, “ok well Riggleman thinks Gorzelanny is going to finish the game, if you’re leaving him in to clearly end a big rally.”

But here’s what I didn’t get: Gorzelanny starts the 8th inning and ONLY THEN does the bullpen get working.  Coffey is up, Burnett is up.  Gorzelanny gets into some trouble in the 8th, giving up a hit and a walk, but gets through the inning and is sitting at 95 pitches.  You look out into the bullpen now, and Storen is warming up.  The Nats go down in the eight inning, and suddenly you see Storen trotting to the mound.

What the heck is going on?  If you were NOT going to let Gorzelanny finish the game, then why did you let him bat in the 7th?   But, by letting him bat you were tacitly telling your pitcher, ” you did a great job tonight, go get the complete game.”  Only you yank him with 95 pitches and without even going back out to start the 9th inning.

Something’s inconsistent here.  As far as I could tell, one of 3 things was going on:

1. Riggleman just forgot to get someone warmed up and was caught off guard by the Nats rally in the 7th.  Suddenly Gorzelanny was at the plate but nobody was warmed up and he had to bat.
2. Riggleman has no right-handed pinch-hitting options, only Stairs and Nix on the bench (he couldn’t burn Pudge as the 2nd catcher), so he figured neither of them would give a good at-bat against Bumgarner, so why not go with Gorzelanny.
3. He fully intended to allow Gorzelanny to go for the complete game, only he saw something during the 8th inning that told him, “hey, Gorzelanny is spent and we need to get him out of there.”

As it turned out, the team won the game.  But in my opinion you trade an inning of your starter in that situation for a chance to blow open the game.  Why else do we have a highly paid pinch hitting specialist sitting on the bench all game??  If the Nats had blown that game by not trying to get a hit in that bases-loaded situation, I would have been pretty irritatated.

At the same time … I understand the veteran mentality mentality of letting guys finish games, or letting them try to get complete games.  Its shows a level of respect and professionalism to your players.  But if that’s what you’re doing … then do it!  Don’t yank the guy after one more inning like its just another ball game.

What do you guys think?

Marquis is putting himself in a very enviable position with his great start to 2011. Photo Al Bello/Getty images via bleacherreport.com

As Jason Marquis was putting the finishing touches on his 5-hit shutout last Friday, I got a hypothetical question from Jason, a buddy of mine: If Marquis continues this great start, what should the team do with him?

To review the facts at hand:

• Through 5 starts, he’s 3-0 with a 2.62 era and 1.165 whip.  That’s good for a 149 ERA+.
• More importantly,this performance does not seem to be the product of luck or chance; his FIP and xFIP are excellent (2.47 and 3.13 respectively).  By way of comparison, the MLB best FIP last year was 2.41 (Josh Johnson), and the best xFIP was 2.92 (Roy Halladay).  Lastly his BABIP is .306, so if anything he’s been slightly unlucky on batted balls.  So he’s definitely pitching at a very elite level.
• He’s in the 2nd year of a 2yr/$15M deal ($7.5M each year).
• He’s 32, and turns 33 in August.

I think the answer is, “trade him for prospects” and here’s why.

1. I don’t think he’s part of the long term solution for this team.  We’ve got too many up-and-coming arms in the minors to block them with a veteran.
2. He’ll be 33 at the end of the season, and may be looking for a 3 year deal if he pitches well enough.  I’m not sure the team wants to commit to a career 98 ERA+ guy for 3 years.
3. Despite his fantastic start, and even if he continues, I just don’t think he’s that good of a pitcher.  He’s got a career ERA in the 4.50 range.  He’s generally been considered a durable, low K/9 but high K/BB innings eater, the kind of guy you make your 4th or 5th starter.
4. He’s in a contract year, and he’s shown some tendencies to pitch better when he’s playing for his next contract.  The best season of his previous 3year deal was in the final year of that deal in Colorado.
5. The Nats are not going to compete in 2011.  We’re struggling to stay at .500, have very little offense right now, and are certain to trade their veteran/one-year contract guys at the deadline.  This is one of the main reasons we made room and retained guys like Chad Gaudin and Laynce Nix at the expense of Balester and Bernadina.

The counter arguments?  If Marquis’ 2011 performance is really more in line with what he’s capable of, then he could be a really valuable addition to a 2012 rotation that (at this point) seems to include Strasburg, Zimmermann, Lannan, and Gorzelanny.   He’s throwing 91-92 with serious downward movement (sink) right now and he’s really difficult to hit against.  Perhaps he’s turned a corner and escaping the altitude in Colorado really has enabled his sinker to become closer to unhittable.

He’s pitching at a higher level than his $7.5M AAV contract (seemingly on pace for another 14-15 win season), and could be considered a real bargain if we could sign him to a comparable number for 3 more years.

But, if Marquis is retained it leaves little room for advancement for any of a slew of AAA and AA prospects we have overachieving right now in the organization.  The question becomes this; would you rather pay for the proven starter or roll the dice with rising prospects who cost one-twentieth the salary?  Honestly, the most valuable commodity in baseball is the pre-arbitration ace starter (think Clay Buchholz going 17-7 in 2010 and getting paid $443k) and it may be worth the gamble.  But these AA arms are just prospects; despite having sparkling k/9 numbers in AA, there’s no guarantee that translates to the majors.  Some GMs want the known quantity versus the unknown gamble, and there’s a very legitimate argument that keeping Marquis gives us the “known quantity.”

I think the move is to flip Marquis to a contender at or before the trade deadline.  Honestly, wouldn’t the New York Yankees LOVE to have him to shore up their rotation?  And wouldn’t he love to go to New York, since he hails from New Jersey and reportedly still lives there in the off season?  Trade him, get some higher-end prospects that are quick to the majors (think the Wilson Ramos–Matt Capps deal last year) and prepare for 2012.