Nationals Arm Race

Gorzelanny puts in his best outing of the year. AP Photo/Frank Franklin II via sbnation.com

Rotation Cycle #5 notes: The team gets back Todd Coffey from the DL and says good-bye (for now) to Collin Balester.  Because of the rain-outs from last week, Jason Marquis‘s turn got skipped, which is unfortunate since he’s the most effective starter we have right now.  Meanwhile, another rain-out on Friday 4/21 was rescheduled to a previous off day on Monday 4/25, a gift for John Lannan, who got to pitch on normal rest.  Lets see how these guys fared.

Good

• Depending on how much credence you give to stadium guns, Drew Storen hit 97 during his 4/24 save.  Just to make sure, I looked up the pitch f/x data, and sure enough he maxed out at 97.1 while averaging 96.1 for his 7 four-seamers on the day.  For some reason, I didn’t realize he could bring it that heavy.  If he’s gaining speed, that’s great news for his closing career.  He’s got a fantastic start to the season; an ERA and Whip below 1.00, 3 saves and a slew of dominant performances.  As a side note, boy i’d love to see him in the rotation…
• Tom Gorzelanny put in his best performance of the year in the opening game of the Mets series (box/gamer) only to watch Sean Burnett melt down in the 9th (well, technically Tyler Clippard blew the “win” for Gorzelanny first) and cost both him and his team the win.  Line: 6 1/3, 5 hits, 1walk 1run and 4Ks.  Amazingly (for Gorzelanny) he was only at 85 pitches when he was pulled.  Normally he’s nearing 100 pitches at the end of the 5th.  He lowered his ERA by a full point and took his ERA+ from 74 to 101 with this one outing.  His fip/xfip are starting to look better as well.  One area of concern is his BABIP; currently at at amazingly low .200.  At some point this will rise and he’ll take some lumps.

Bad

• Livan Hernandez‘s 450th career start is one he’d like to have back.  He gave up 5 runs in the first, 7 overall (4 earned thanks to several errors by his defense) and he took an ugly loss on 4/23 (box/gamer).  Line: 6ip, 9hits, 7 runs (4 earned), 4bbs and 2ks.  Livan, a creature of habit, had his typical pre-game routine thrown off by an hour-long rain delay and then apparently short notice to get ready to go.  He commented as much to beat reporters and even pseudo-accused the Pirates of playing some gamesmanship with the notification timing (seemingly, his opposite number Jeff Karstens got plenty of notice to begin his warmup).  Either way, it was only the 2nd “meltdown” our starters have thrown all year (I define a “meltdown” as a pitcher who gives up as many or more runs as innings pitched during an outing) as opposed to the FOURTY they managed to throw in 162 games last year.
• Chad Gaudin managed to get through 2/3 of an inning without giving up a run on monday, but not without some embarrassing moments.  He managed to throw not one but two balls behind the backs of opposing hitters.  He was flat-out aiming several other pitches, including a slider that probably would have been disintegrated by better hitters.  Unfortunately, he just looks like he’s lost confidence in his command, and he must be reading the writing on the wall (i.e., that he’s most likely gone when Henry Rodriguez is done with rehab).  Update: he was placed on the 15-day DL when Rodriguez was re-instated on 4/27, and I commented about the move here.
• Not a good start from Jordan Zimmerman, who continued the Nats starter streak of pitching into the 5th inning on 4/26 against the Mets (box/gamer), but only barely.  He gives up 5 runs on 9 hits in just 5 1/3 inning.  On the bright side, he was throwing lots of strikes (53 of 73 pitches for strikes) and his pitch count was very low (73 through 5 1/3, putting him on pace to at least finish 7).  Perhaps he was trying to pitch to contact tonight instead of trying to blow guys away.  Zimmermann still has 2nd best FIP and xFIP values of the rotation, so he’s not the real problem right now.
• Doug Slaten may have a 0.00 era at current, but he’s got a 1.80 whip and allowed both runners he inherited from Zimmermann to score on 4/26, essentially sealing the 6-4 loss for the team.  1.80 whip is just too many baserunners for a matchup-guy and he needs to work on getting clean outings.  In his defense, his BABIP is absurdly high (.438), so he may just be unlucky in the early part of the season.
• Sean Burnett and Tyler Clippard both conspired to waste Gorzelanny’s great start, each getting a blown save on 4/27.  Burnett’s was completely egregious; he blew a 1-run game in the 9th, gave up FOUR runs and forced the team to burn Storen on a night he was scheduled to have off.  If there’s any question who the “closer” is for this team now, I think we have our answer.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• Jason Marquis struggled with his control all day on 4/24 (gamer/box), but scattered 10 baserunners over 6 innings and managed to only give up 3 runs.  Meanwhile his hitters backed him up enough to get the win.  He nearly didn’t make it out of the 5th inning; he was probably one more baserunner from getting yanked before qualifying for the win.  But he gutted the inning out and finished the 6th upon throwing his 100th pitch.  His day included a 55-mph floater that he just tossed in to avoid a balk after slipping mid-way through his rotation … the  batter (Neil Walker) just watched it into the mitt for a called strike and then looked as if he’d just passed up on the pitch of a lifetime.
• John Lannan was victimized by a short rain delay, which seemed to throw him off his game, leading to a 4-run 4th inning and a loss on 4/25 (gamer/box).  He went 5 2/3 all told, and was bailed out of the 6th inning by reliever Todd Coffey.  Not his worst start, but enough to cost his offensively-challenged team a win.  Lannan is putting a lot of guys on base (whip of 1.538 on the season) and is probably our least effective pitcher right now.  He’s only had one really “good” outing out of 5 so far this year.

Trends

As with the minor league rotations, here’s the trends of our starters so far.  Livan is doing what we normally expect; throwing in a really bad outing intermixed with good ones.  Lannan’s trends are troublesome; he’s only really had one dominating outing all year.

MLB Trends:
Lhernandez    good,bad,good,good,bad
Lannan    good,soso,soso,bad,soso
Zimmermann     good,good,good,bad,bad
Marquis    good,good,good,soso
Gorzelanny    soso,good,soso,good

The Nats fans finally get to see what our flamethrowing reliever can do. Photo Ezra Shaw/Getty Images via bleacherreport.com

The Nats re-instated reliever Henry Rodriguez from the 15-day DL today, and as expected removed their least-performing reliever (Chad Gaudin) from the active roster.  In a slightly surprising move, instead of DFA-ing Gaudin (as I suspected they may have done), he himself was put in the 15-day DL with “right shoulder inflammation.”

This move continues a trend we’ve seen out of the Nats organization this season of putting pitchers onto the Disabled List with nebulous “soft tissue” injuries when they under-perform.  Lets be honest; every single major league pitcher probably has “shoulder inflammation” or “tendinitis” at any point in the season.  Pitching is an unnatural act that puts tremendous strain on the shoulder, rotator cuff, elbow and forearm tendons of every hurler.  So perhaps every pitcher could convince a doctor that 2 weeks off could be beneficial.

One can make the argument that, in addition to Gaudin and Rodriguez himself (coming out of spring training, after severely under-performing, showing up late because of visa issues and without any minor league options to use), the Nats have also done this with Garrett Mock and Luis Atilano after they both underperformed in their first few minor league starts.  Additionally, instead of just outright assigning guys to extended spring, the likes of Oliver Perez, Shairon Martis, Atahualapa Severino, Rafael Martin, Zech Zinicola, Patrick Arnold, and Dean Weaver all have been listed on various level’s DLs with “injuries” that could probably better be defined as “didn’t make the team” instead of something legitimate.

I guess I don’t have a problem with the moves, since they enable the team to retain players that may still have value to the franchise, even if they seem slightly disingenuous.  Gaudin, for example, probably earned his way onto the 25-man roster out of spring and still could hold some trade value if he can improve on his early season performances.  I don’t believe he’s part of the long-term plans for the team (not with the host of decent arms we seem to have at the AAA and AA level right now).

In other cases, I question why we’re bothering with the subterfuge.  Certainly Nats fans have exhausted patience with certain players (Mock in particular) and openly question why we don’t move on.  Perhaps the answer is really, “we don’t have to make a move so why bother.”  And that’s certainly fair.  Mock can continue to hold a spot on the 40-man for the time being because there’s nobody coming off of the 60-man DL anytime soon, and there’s no hitters at the AAA or AA level who are hitting their way onto the active roster.

Livan continues his mastery of the National League.

The team fights through two doubleheaders in a weeks time with continued great starting pitching.  As of the time of this posting, the Nats rotation is the only rotation in baseball that has yet to see a sub-5 inning outing.  Our team ERA is 5th in the NL and is keeping the team in games (our team batting average has been either last or 2nd to last in the NL most of the season).

(Note; because of the double-headers, Jason Marquis‘s turn got skipped in the rotation.  Honestly, I would have thought Riggleman would have figured out a way to get him a start and skip Gorzelanny in the rotation instead of the other way around.  He’ll go against Pittsburgh this coming weekend).

Good

• Livan Hernandez pitched the 2nd game of Sunday’s double header (blog/gamer/box) and seemed to enjoy pitching in and out of the shadows cast from the stadium in the later afternoon.  He continues to put in effective performances despite not having lights-out stuff, going 7pm, 6hits, 1r, 3ks and no walks for his 3rd quality start out of four and his 2nd win on the year.
• I liked Drew Storen‘s 2 inning save against Milwaukee on 4/17; I like having relievers who are comfortable going more than one inning when called upon.  He earns the save on a day where supposed closer Sean Burnett gets the day off.  On 4/20, he bailed out Burnett’s bad outing and got a 4-out save in St Louis.
• Third straight scoreless outing for Brian Broderick in St. Louis.  Hmm; perhaps his initial struggles were just nerves.

Bad

• Chad Gaudin‘s 2BB, 1hit appearance in the first half of Sunday’s twin-bill rightfully has some observers calling for his head.  He’s just putting too many guys on base (his WHIP sits above 2.00 now; in 7 innings pitched he’s given up 10 hits and 7 walks) for a late-inning reliever.  He appeared again on 4/20; 2/3 of an inning, 2 hits and a walk.  He may have pitched great in the spring, but he may be making way once Henry Rodriguez completes his rehab assignments.
• John Lannan‘s effort in the top half of their St Louis DH (blog/gamer/box) was enough to get the win on a day where he didn’t really pitch that well.  7 hits and 3 walks in 5 innings but he only managed to give up 2 runs (on two solo homers to Pujols and Rasmus).   He threw more pitches than he normally needs (101 pitches for 5 innings and a batter) and struggled to find the plate (59 strikes).  I’m listing this as a “bad” outing because he failed to go deep into a game where the bullpen needed a break.  His offense gave him a SEVEN run lead and his short outing forced the team to burn 5 of their 7 relievers.
• Jordan Zimmermann struggled in the nightcap on 4/20, giving up 5 runs in 6 innings to take the loss.  He didn’t have much of a safety net from his bullpen and knew he had to go deep.  He struggled with his spots most of the game but couldn’t get Lance Berkman out.  He looked good early, but took his third loss of the season.

Mediocre

• Tom Gorzelanny demonstrated yet again one of my primary concerns with him as a starter in the St Louis series finale (gamer/box).  He just throws too many pitches.  His final line wasn’t egregious: 5ip, 2runs on 2 hits, 4 walks with 3 ks.  However, it took him 108 pitches to complete the 5th inning.  By way of comparison, the opposing starter Kyle Lohse (who is not exactly a Cy Young candidate), needed just 111 pitches to pitch a complete game.  Gorzelanny walked a batter in each of the first 4 innings.  He only threw 63 of those 108 pitches for strikes.  The 2 run homer that he gave up to Matt Holliday came on an 0-2 mistake, and he only gave up one other hit in 5 innings.  That may sound good, but the ancillary evidence is against him.  This outing lowered his ERA to 4.96, but his FIP is 6.20.  By way of comparison, the HIGH FIP for qualified 2010 starters in either league was Rodrigo Lopez‘s 5.21.  Gorzelanny needs to learn how to pitch more efficiently and not be a complete bullpen killer every time he takes the mound.
• Collin Balester‘s poor outing in St. Louis did him no favors with the team.  It wasn’t as if the team was threatening to win that game  hitting as badly as they have been, but your job as a reliever is to pitch shutout innings.  Balester needs to show lights-out stuff to prove to management that he’s a better alternative going forward than Chad Gaudin.

Thoughts on the offense

The offense is going through highs and lows.  They pounded Milwaukee’s Ace and hung 7 on St. Louis’ Westbrook.  But then they meekly allowed the very mediocre Kyle Lohse to put a complete game 2-hitter on them.  A quick look at the hitting stats shows some alarming stats; only one regular right now shows an OPS+ above 100 (Espinosa).  We know Werth and LaRoche are slow starters, but enough is enough.  Meanwhile Morse has exactly 1 extra base hit in 46 at bats and may be due for a demotion.  I’d like to see Laynce Nix full time in left field for the time being.  I know the theory is that he can’t hit lefties so you platoon him, but at this point I’d rather see him full time out there.  So far the Ankiel experiment is failing too; good for the Nats to be scouting CFs.  And why are we giving MORE at bats to Pudge?  I realize he’s a hall of famer and all, but the man is clearly a once-a-week starter now.

Overall Summary

Amazingly, the team sits at .500 after the series loss in St. Louis.  I’d like to see at least two wins in Pittsburgh.  That would be a sign of progress.

Jordan Zimmermann is starting to look like a very valuable starter.

Good

• Livan Hernandez kicks off the 3rd turn through the rotation with a great start against the NL favorite Phillies (running blog/gamer/box).  Final line was 6 2/3, 7h, 1er, 6Ks and 0 BBs.  His one run was on an opposite field smash by Ryan Howard on a pitch that wasn’t that bad (remember; Howard is a dead pull hitter so for him to put a ball out to left is an aberration, not a sign).  Livan’s line would have looked even better had he not given up 3 straight singles in the 7th inning, leaving a bases loaded jam for Tyler Clippard to get out of.  Livan was in control all night, following his typical pattern of hitting the corners and frustrating hitters with ridiculously slow curve balls.  (Side note on this start; I had a real problem with the way Riggleman handled the bullpen this night; see this post for my thoughts).
• Jordan Zimmerman was perfect through 5 innings on 4/14 (blog/gamer/box) before hanging a curveball for a homer in the 6th and loading the bases in the 8th.  It wouldn’t matter; his counterpart Cliff Lee threw a 3-hit shutout.  Final line: 7ip, 5hits, 0bbs, 4rs (only 1 earned) with 4ks.  When he was removed in the 8th he had only thrown 85 pitches, showing the best efficiency of any starter yet this season.  His one earned run line slightly flatters what happened to him in the 8th; the two guys who scored both got on base via hits.  Either way, the most dominating pitching performance of 2010 from our starters.
• Doug Slaten pitched very effectively in his lefty-lefty matchups against Philadelphia, getting Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez very effectively when presented with opportunities.
• Tom Gorzelanny‘s 4/15 start (blog/gamer/box) indicated to me that he’s still not quite in his mid-season groove.  He cruised through 4 innings with just two weak hits (an infield bouncer and a liner to left that Michael Morse really should have caught).  Then in the 5th he gave up a hard-hit double to weak hitting former Nat Wil Nieves and then Richie Weeks just pulverized a ball that Gorzelanny left over the plate for a 2-run double.  Gorzelanny seems to really lose his typical rhythm when runners get on base; he slows down his normally fast tempo, pays too much attention to the runners, and suddenly loses his ability to command his pitches.  Final line: 6ip, 5h, 2runs, 2bbs and 4ks.  A quality start for sure, but I’d still put it as a slightly inconsistent outing.
• Jason Marquis went against Milwaukee’s ace Yovanni Gallardo on Sunday 4/17 (blog/gamer/box) and came away an 8-4 winner.  Marquis pitched like a veteran for his team, knowing that they needed a long outing so as to save the bullpen for the 2nd game and the rest of the week.  He scattered 9 hits and a walk through 7ip plus, got a couple of double plays from his defense and watched the offense get to one of the better pitchers in the league for a win.  Final line: 7ip, 9hits, 2runs, 1bb and 4ks.

Bad

There really wasn’t anything “bad” to report out of any of our relievers on the week.  Todd Coffey was placed on the DL with a calf strain, clearing the way for Collin Balester to join the team for 10 days or so.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• John Lannan‘s 4/13 (blog/gamer/box) outing versus Philly ace Roy Halladay was always going to be a tough game to win.  His line ended up looking better than his performance (6ip, 3r, 2er, 6hits and 3bbs).  He struggled with his control all night, throwing 100 pitches but only 55 for strikes.  He gave up a lead-off double but scattered 5 other singles throughout the evening.  He worked around multiple mental mistakes and errors from shortstop Ian Desmond (including; an obstruction call, hesitation on a grounder in the first that turned a routine ground ball into a hit, dropping an easy grounder, and then failing to throw home on an infield-in situation, allowing one of the runs to score).  Some would look at the end result and claim this is Lannan effectively working through a very strong lineup and working around defensive mistakes to keep his team in the game.  And I wouldn’t be able to argue against it.

Thoughts on the offense

The Nats are being carried right now by the two rookies Danny Espinosa and Wilson Ramos.  With Ryan Zimmerman on the DL we’re now missing our 3-4-5 hitters from last season, and it is showing.   Zimmerman’s replacement Hairston is (as of 4/15) 1-22 at the plate.  The Nats really pulverized a #5 pitcher (Joe Blanton0 but were completely shut down by better pitching.  We seem to have no answer to replace struggling hitters like Morse, Desmond, and Ankiel.  Ankiel in particular seems completely overmatched against lefties right now.   5 of our 9 starters are at or near the mendoza line.

Overall Summary

Well, Its a miracle we’re even near .500 as a team.  Our starters have really been stepping up.  MASN had a pretty startling stat comparing the team ERA of our staff through the first 13 games of this year (3.55 versus something north of 6.5).  Unfortunately, we just have to wait for the lineup to come around, since we don’t have much of anything in the minors to help out.

Why leave your best reliever in a game you're winning by 5 runs?

I promise this is not “hindsight is 20-20” analysis; had you been in my basement watching last night’s game with me, you would have heard me yelling all the things I’m about to say.

I have a real problem with Riggleman’s bullpen management last night.  Now, perhaps the off-day on Monday 4/11 enabled all the relievers to get enough rest to enable what we saw last night.

Here’s the sequence of events i’ll be commenting on:

• Livan Hernandez starts the 7th with a 4 run lead and having only thrown about 75 pitches at the time, but is facing the top of the Phillies order.
• We see Brian Broderick warming up.  (see comment #1)
• Suddenly Livan gets into trouble.  We see Tyler Clippard jump up and start throwing.
• Livan loads the bases, looking as if he had run out of gas.  Clippard comes in and gets out of a bases-loaded jam.
• We look back and Todd Coffey is warming up.  (see comment #2)
• To start the 8th (by which point the Nats have scored again, giving the team a FIVE run lead), Clippard comes back out!  (see comment #3)
• He can’t get out of the inning though, so Riggleman brings in his closer Sean Burnett to get out of an 8th inning jam.  The score is now 6-3 though.
• The Nats score another run in the bottom of the 8th to make it 7-3.  That’s a 4 run cushion going into the 9th inning.
• Riggleman leaves Burnett in!  (see comment #4).   Burnett gives up another run but finishes the game, getting a save for his troubles. (see comment #5).

Comments in order:

1. Ok, I was happy to see Broderick warming up.  This was the perfect game to bring him in; a 4 run lead on a colder night when the Nats seemed frisky.  Unfortunately, Livan got into trouble so quickly that Clippard had to be pushed into service.
2. Why did Coffey warm up?  He clearly wasn’t going to come into the game, since the dangerous hitter in the Phillies lineup is Ryan Howard, and Slaten is the loogy.
3. Why did Clippard return for the 8th inning??  Coffey had warmed up, as had Broderick.  You have a 4 run lead.  I suppose the reasoning was because the meat of the Phillies order was coming up.  But its a 4 run lead with 2 innings to play; the odds of a team coming back from that deficit are relatively small (remember, teams score 0 or 1 runs in an inning and no more a very large percentage of the time; 86% per this 2007 study).
4. See point #3: why bring back your closer, who you’re going to need for the next 6 days, with a 4 run lead in the 9th inning??
5. General point about the uselessness of the save situation: Burnett came into the game in the bottom of the 8th inning and allowed 2 of the 3 base-runners he inherited to score.  That’s the definition of a failure as a reliever.  Then, given a 4 run lead in the 9th he allows another run but eventually closes out the 9th and gets a save.  Yes, by virtue of the bases being loaded with a 5 run lead, the tying run was on deck therefore it was a save situation by definition.  But how exactly was his performance on the night worthy of any “positive” statistic whatsoever?  I have a post coming up about the use of relievers in general where I touch on the definition of the Save, and this game highlights everything I can’t stand about the stat.

In summary, in a game where the Nats held the lead by 4-5 runs most of the night, we pitched 2 of our 3 best relievers, both throwing more than an inning.  Burnett threw 28 pitches, enough for 2 innings.  We also warmed up Coffey and Broderick (which may not show up in the box score but they certainly were throwing).  We never bothered to use our LOOGY against one of the most susceptable lefty-lefty matchup hitters in the league (Ryan Howard).  We have two more games against the Phillies, games in which we face their two aces and certainly would expect the games to be closer.  Does this mean that Clippard and/or Burnett won’t be available later this week because they pitched on tuesday?  Wouldn’t you want to save these guys for better opportunities?

Marquis puts in his 2nd good outing in a row

We’re two turns through the rotation now and the team sits at 4-5.  Here’s some rundowns on how the pitching is trending.

Good

• Half the Bullpen.  2010 holdovers Clippard, Storen, and Burnett are pitching lights out to open the season.  Now if only the Nats still had the other half of the 2010 bullpen still here… (see the “bad” section).
• Jordan Zimmermann‘s 2nd start on 4/8 (blog/gamer/box) went decently.  5 1/3, 6 hits, 2 runs 0 walks and 4 ks.  He left the game with the lead and Goessling notes that he looked sharp early (the 4Ks were in the first two innings).  He got yanked in the 6th on 99 pitches all in all, in favor of Slaten to do a lefty-lefty matchup.  Some commenters note the early hook as over-managing perhaps; I don’t have that big a problem with early hooks early in the season, especially for someone on a known innings limit for the season.  Remember, we have a bullpen full of guys who need work and havn’t thrown in a few days (Gaudin, Slaten and Broderick in particular).  Zimmermann’s control was good (68 of 99 for strikes) and his fastball was strong (avg of 92, max 94.8).
• Jason Marquis.  I’m writing this at the end of the 6th of his 4/10 start (gamer/box) assuming that Marquis is coming out of the game.  His line: 6ip, 7hits, 2 BBs, 9ks and 3 earned runs.  Without context, this line looks mediocre.  However, by watching the game you get a different feel.  3 of those 7 hits were infield hits, another a broken bat RBI single.  Only two halfway-decently hit balls all day (one was a really nice piece of hitting by David Wright to knock in the first run).  Marquis seemed to work around difficulties with his fastball all day, and got 9Ks by virtue of some great off speed stuff.  Of the three runs scored, one was only in scoring position thanks to a passed ball on a 3rd strike.  The umpires blatantly missed three pretty obvious calls in the field, extending Marquis’ outing.  He was in position for the loss (since Chris Wright is pitching a one-hitter through 7 innings despite a fastball that is only in the 85-86mph range) until the Nats got to Carrasco in the 8th to tie the game.  I’d rate his outing as a success and something to build on.

Bad

• Livan Hernandez‘s 4/6/11 start (gamer/box) was not nearly as good as his opening day start.  He labored in Florida, taking nearly 100 pitches to get through 5 innings.  6 hits, 5 walks and 4 runs.  He really struggled in the first inning, only throwing 8 of 24 pitches for strikes.  He blew the 4-run lead his team had staked him and the bullpen did the rest.  I wonder if this is the year that Livan finally gets yanked out of the rotation (he basically hasn’t missed a start in his career, despite a fastball that’s only averaging 83-84mph).
• The other Half of the bullpen: Gaudin and Coffey continue to be very poor replacements for last year’s highly effective duo of Bautista and Peralta.  An offensively-challenged team like the Nats needs to keep every lead it gets; this is one of the main reasons we lost 100+ games two years running.  Last year we had a good bullpen thing going, but management failed to keep two of the key members and rolled the dice with two new guys plus a rule5 acquisition.  I see this experiment going badly, soon.
• Brian Broderick: the whole Broderick situation is looking worse and worse.  After giving up a few more runs on 4/9, he’s got an era in the 20s.  Riggelman had said before he plans on only using him in no-pressure situations (read: complete blowouts), which reduces the bullpen by one.  Except that on 4/9, when most of his bullpen needed a night off, he was forced to use Broderick in a close situation.  So he comes in and lets the game get out of hand.  This was one of the main reasons I advocated AGAINST a team like the Nats keeping a rule5 guy (as discussed in this March 16th post).  I would like to see the Nats negotiate a trade with the Cardinals so we can stash him in AAA and bring up Balester.

Not good or bad necessarily.

• John Lannan‘s 4/6 start (running thread/gamer/box) didn’t look that great (5ip, 7hits, 3ER) as he demonstrated the danger of leadoff hits or walks.  Three straight baserunners to start the game lead to two runs and it could have been worse had he not embarassed Logan Morrison on three straight curveballs to get out of an easy sac fly situation for a 3rd run.  Lannan’s showing more velocity than I remember, 90-91mph but acting like a sinkerballer (cool stat heard on TV; Lannan ranks 4th in the majors over the past few years in ground-ball percentage).  I put Lannan closer to the “good” category because his BABIP is .333 and his xFIP ranks him best among the starters so far.
• Tom Gorzelanny‘s season debut 4/9 (gamer/box) had some good (he retired 8 straight after giving up 2 first inning runs and he had 8 Ks in 5 1/3 innings), and some bad (two homers plus a long fly-ball that almost was a third homer to Carlos Beltran, needing 26 pitches to get out of the first inning and throwing 98 to complete just 5 1/3 innings).  Hi start may have gone completely differently had he gotten a borderline strike-3 call the pitch prior to Beltran’s first inning homer.  I like WHIP as a better rough indicator than ERA for starters; and Gorzelanny may have given up 6 runs (5 earned) in less than 6 innings, but he only put 6 baserunners on in those 5 1/3 innings.  Most of the time, a whip around 1 per inning gets absorbed by double plays and stranded base runners; today they all scored.

Quick Thoughts on the offense

• The words “Partially torn labrum” are not a good thing for Adam LaRoche, and I’m afraid we’re about to lose him for a very long time.  Like perhaps the season.  To make matters worse he hurt his leg sliding on Sunday and was taken out of the game (putting Pudge at 1B for the first time in years).  Ironically, Michael Morse playing first base was a very early-into-the-offseason suggestion; keep Josh Willingham in left and play Morse at first.  Of course, now we’re potentially looking at the worst possible situation; we blow FA dollars on a 2nd tier first-baseman, trade away Willingham for assets that are either hurt or in the minors, and then watch our first baseman go down with injury the first week of the season.  Not good news.
• Wilson Ramos‘s excellent start is quickly answering two questions for the Nats; who is the catcher of the (immediate) future?  And, how will Ivan Rodriguez be used this year?  Well the answer to the second question is quickly becoming “once a week backup,” as Pudge is looking incredibly over-matched at the plate.  It may be a sad ending for Pudge; despite still being excellent defensively, if he can’t hit .200 he may be forced into retirement after this season.
• I like what Danny Espinosa is doing thus far; if he can force himself into the upper-end of this lineup, the team will be better for it.  Especially as a switch hitter; he could allow us to return Werth to a more natural batting position (like 5th).

Overall Summary

Despite not getting nearly as good a set of starts as the first turn through, the team takes 2 of 3 in NY and salvages a .500 road trip.  Can’t ask for much more than that.  I’m going the Wednesday game and can’t wait to see Roy Halladay vs Lannan.  Should be good.

Lannan has the only W for the rotation thus far. Photo: blog.prorumors.com

A major league team’s rotation cycles somewhere between 33-34 times a year.  As I did with the Spring training games, I will try to do a good/bad/indifferent each time through for the pitching staff.  I’ll focus more on the starters but will mention the relievers as is merited.

Good

• Livan Hernandez‘s opening day start (running blog/gamer/box score) may have gone down as a loss, but it was a pretty nifty gem.  He gave up two runs on four hits with no walks in 6 1/3 on only 77 pitches.  He retired 15 in a row after a 2nd inning homer given up to Jason Heyward.  He may have gotten the loss but it was a quality start for sure and he probably pitches a complete game if the Nats could score.
• John Lannan goes 5 complete for the win in the 2nd game of the season (blog/gamer/box score).  Its amazing what a little run support will do for a guy.  I do agree though with Steven from FJB, who criticizes the decision to bring Lannan back after an hour’s rain delay just so he can pitch the 5th and get the W.  Why would he have possibly had Lannan return after an hour’s delay?  That’s why you have long men in the bullpen.  That should have been Broderick or Gaudin in to re-start the game.
• Jordan Zimmermann‘s first start of the season (running blog/gamer/box score) was promising: 2er in 6ip and finishing those 6 innings in just 84 pitches.  Not very many Ks though (only two through six) for a strike out pitcher.  Perhaps he was pitching to contact.
• Sean Burnett: apparently our new “closer” for now.  He’s pitched pretty effectively in limited opportunities.
• Jason Marquis: his 4/5 start (gamer and box)was the first game that I have gotten to see.  And I thought he looked pretty good.  He went 6 1/3, gave up 6 hits and 0 walks and was efficient all night (he was only at 78 pitches when he got removed).  He only had 2 ks but was throwing lots of strikes.   His fastball showed around 90 with great movement and he got lots of groundballs (11 grounders and 5 fly balls).  The middle of the Marlins order had his number but he controlled the rest of the squad.

Bad

• Doug Slaten: three games and three failures in the Loogy role to start the season.  Gotta do better.  Your job is to get the lefties out.  He may not have given up an earned run yet but his whip is a nifty 12.00 through three games.
• The Bullpen on 4/3/11.  Broderick, Gaudin, and Coffey‘s 4/3/11 performances.  Not.  Good.  Notice that these three guys are all brand new to a very good bullpen last year.  I’m not panicking, but i am saying.  Balester may have his ears burning if (especially) Gaudin can’t get it done.

Possibly Concerning

• Storen seems to be getting his confidence back.  But he cannot be giving up two hits and a walk in the 9th inning of a tied game (as he did on 4/5).  He’s not getting any Ks either, and we need his k/9 ratio to be up in the 8.5-9.0 range.

Pitching Summary:

We’ve had four starts and gotten 3 “real” quality starts (plus Lannan on his way to a 4th when a rain delay caused his night to be shortened).  You cannot ask for much more out of your starting rotation.  Last year our first four starts went like this:

• Lannan; 3 2/3ip, 7 hits, 3bbs and 5 runs.
• Marquis: 4ip, 8 hits, 3 bbs and 6 runs.
• Stammen: 5ip, 9 hits, 4 runs.
• Mock: 3 1/3ip, 4hits but FIVE walks and 2 runs.

For the record, that was 17 runs in 16 innings over 4 days.  Our first four starts in 2011 elicited 23 2/3ip and just 7 earned runs.  Quite the turn around.  Too bad the team couldn’t score any runs and went 1-3.

Thoughts on the offense

We’re getting great production out of our stars (Zimmerman has a 1.406 ops through 4 games and Werth is at .945).  Ramos is mashing the ball and Espinosa is 4/10 so far.  The rest of the team?  Bad.  Until last night the lead off  hitters were 0-for-the-season and Riggleman is already swapping players around to put Espinosa at leadoff (a pretty good decision if he can handle it).  Ankiel is 1/12 (but that “one” is a mashed homer, which St. Louis fans are probably cackling about, since they continually warn Nats fans that this is exactly what Ankiel does).  They’ve only scored 10 runs in 4 games (6 of them in their sole win) and definitely need to show better run support.

Summary

Great starting pitching to go with little run support.  I hope this isn’t the story of the season.

Week 4 is “moving week.”  Management will soon need to make all the decisions on who makes this team, and the candidates need to make statements in their appearances this week.  Bullpen members, Center Field, backup outfielders and backup infielders seem to be the four competitions yet to really be decided upon.

As with the previous 3 weeks, here’s links to Kilgore’s running game-day blogs (when he does them), Bill Ladson’s game wrap-ups and the official box score on mlb.com.

• 3/20: vs Tigers (running blog/gamer/box score)
• 3/21: at Cardinals (running blog/gamer/box score)
• 3/22: vs Astros (running blog/gamer/box score)
• 3/23: off day
• 3/24: at Tigers (running blog/gamer/box score)
• 3/25: vs Cardinals (running blog/gamer/box score)
• 3/26: at Astros (running blog/gamer/box score)

The Good

• Tom Gorzelanny: Pitched effectively on 3/20, 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 3 K, 84 pitches, 47 strikes.  The 2 runs were on a wind-aided homer that wasn’t that bad of a pitch.  Gorzelanny needed 84 pitches to complete 5 innings but he threw a LOT of balls.  He was getting squeezed (on one of the BBs he clearly had him for strike 3) by the umpire and he was more effective than his line shows.  One area of concern though is velocity; the MASN broadcast only had him in the upper 80s on his fastballs.  He followed this up with a similarly good 3/25 performance vs the Cards: 6ip with only 77 pitches, 4 hits and a walk, getting 5Ks.  Perhaps my earlier concerns about him will be proven unfounded.
• Brian Broderick: seems to have effectively won his spot in the bullpen by continuing his nearly scoreless spring training.  He could be a major find for this team.  The more interesting question becomes this, “who makes way?”  Because we’re also hearing that Chad Gaudin is making this team too, meaning that TWO guys who were favorites to make this team at the beginning of spring training are heading to Syracuse.
• John Lannan: a great start on 3/22 (albeit against the weak Astros) puts him in line to be our #2 starter when camp breaks.  Final line: 6IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K’s, 66 pitches, 42 for strikes.  66 pitches for 6 complete innings is fantastic, even against the awful Astros.  Lets hope we’re getting the post-minor league banishment version of Lannan (6-3 record with a 3.42 era and 1.24 whip in his 10 games after returning) versus his first 14 games of 2010 (2-5, 5.76 era and 1.85 whip).
• Colin Balester continues to prove he belongs by throwing great middle relief.  He may lose out in the options dance come April 1st, but he should force his way back to Washington.  Kilgore described his curves as “untouchable” on 3/22 and says he’s easily one of the 7 best relievers in camp.
• Jordan Zimmermann: his 3/24 start was pretty good; 5 scoreless innings, giving up 5 hits and a walk, striking out 6.  He only needed 90 pitches through 5 and his fastball was sitting 94, reaching 96 (despite what the stadium radar gun was showing on TV…).  He looks like he’s slotting into the #3 starter role.

The Bad

• Stammen: optioned on 3/25 as expected.  I say this is “bad” because I feel Stammen is better than he’s shown.  His fip and xfip last year were 2nd best on the team to Strasburg (whose advanced numbers, by the way, were the best in the league by a fair margin for starters).  I think he can still be an effective back-of-the-rotation starter in the majors.  Now it seems he’s being converted to middle-relief and will enter a very jumbled mix of players in the AAA bullpen competition.  He may very well be out of a job before we know it.

The Concerning

• Most of the Bullpen: As Zuckerman notes here on NatsInsider, our supposed strength is turning into a scary liability.  Clippard, Coffey, and Storen all pitched 3/20, all three looked less than stellar and all three now have spring ERAs that would not merit their 25-man roster spots.  Storen picked in up on 3/22 with a nice 1-2-3 9th and followed it up with a really nice 1-2-3 9th on 3/25.  Clippard rebounded on 3/24 but Coffey did not.  Perhaps Coffey will be our 2011 version of Brian Bruney, a veteran reliever on a reasonable contract who gets cut very quickly into the season.  We’ll see.
• Livan Hernandez: 5 ip, 6 h, 2 er, 3 bb, 1 k, 83 pitches, 50 strikes outing on 3/21 against the STL varsity.  Zuckerman described it as a solid outing and that Livan faded a bit late.  He only threw 5 innings and he was fading!?  I know that this is what we get out of Livan generally; lots of baserunners and him pitching out of jams based on guile and experience.  But I’d like to see a bit more competence from our opening day starter.  He threw again on 3/26 and was efficient in 4 innings but left due to a neck issue (from sleeping on it wrong).

A "neck spasm" is sending Rodriguez to the DL. Photo: prosportsblogging.com

A few days ago I was kvetching about the Henry Rodriguez situation in this space.  One sentence summary; he was “stuck” on the 25-man b/e he had no options yet was being held out of games to work on his mechanics.

Now, it appears the Nats decision makers has been given a lucky parachute out of this debacle, with rumors now swirling that Rodriguez will start the season on the DL.  Kilgore reports that he was experiencing soreness in his shoulder while Ladson said he saw a doctor for some neck stiffness.  Yesterday morning Comak reported he experienced a “neck spasm.”  I’ll bet $100 someone took him aside and basically told him to claim some sort of soft-tissue, difficult to diagnose injury in order to enable a disabled trip visit.

Either way, stashing Rodriguez on the DL is the best way to resolve this situation.  It may be slightly unethical in terms of player movement, but it certainly happens all the time.

Rodriguez’s DL trip means the bullpen and player retention issues that were plaguing the Nats resolve themselves for the most part.  Here’s how the bullpen almost certainly shakes out now:

• closer: Storen (despite his troubles, he’ll be given every opportunity to keep the spot)
• setup: Clippard, Coffey and Burnett.  Coffey may be on thin ice though.
• loogy: Slaten.  The Lee Hyde waiver pickup (and to a lesser extent Villone) provides Slaten insurance.
• long-men: Broderick and Gaudin: Rule5 draftee makes the team and could be a steal.  Gaudin earns his way back onto a major league roster.

The Gaudin retention means we need another 40-man spot; my guess is that Chien-Ming Wang goes on the 60-day dl.

Balester loses out despite pitching very well; clearly an options move.  When most of your bullpen options have little to no roster flexibility, you put yourself into a situation where you send down better guys in lieu of keeping lesser guys.  I’m sure Balester understands this and hopefully he gets another shot to come up soon.  If Coffey continues to struggle we should see a Brian Bruney-esque release and a quick callup for Balester.

Perez's down and out of NY; can he come back with the Nats? Photo: metzilla.com/baseballlatinamerica.com

Word came down on March 21st that the New York Mets had finally given up on Oliver Perez turning his career around and flat out released him.  He had a great 2007 season, going 15-10 in a full season starting for a nifty 121 era+.  Despite coming back down to earth in 2008, the Mets signed him to a 3yr/$36M contract for 2009-11.  He got hurt in 2009, was grossly ineffective in 2010, and now the Mets have decided to eat his entire $12m salary just to be rid of him in 2011.  He was reportedly only throwing in the mid 80s and the Mets were looking at him as a Loogy, not a starter or even a long reliever.

Two days later, Nats fans hear that he’s signed a minor league deal with Washington.  Beat reporters Goessling and Zuckerman nicely summed up similar thoughts to me with respect to this move and what it may mean for the AAA rotation.  But here’s some questions and answers about the move.

Q: Why didn’t the Mets try to trade him? The answer is probably along the lines of, who would want to assume $12M of salary?  Perhaps if the deal was Perez plus $11M for a prospect.  But Perez has looked so bad, his velocity so far below where it used to be, that the Mets probably figured no team would trade anything of value for him.

Q: Why didn’t the Mets just assign him to AAA to keep him? Perez has enough MLB service that he could refuse the assignment and become a free agent, essentially putting him in the exact same spot he is now by virtue of his unconditional release.

Q: Why would the Nats possibly want him? This is a very low risk, low cost move.  Even if he makes the majors we’re not paying anything more than the MLB minimum salary for him (somewhere in the $450k range).  He has already agreed to go to AAA, where he could NOT go for New York.  He can go to AAA, work on his mechanics in a low-stress, low-visibility environment and try to regain what once made him a great prospect.

Q: Is the displacement of other AAA pitchers worth the risk?  Assuming that Perez is treated like a starter, we’re probably now looking at this for the AAA rotation:

• Locks: Maya and Detwiler.  These guys are options 1A and 1B for rising to the majors, and if it were not for option statuses or contracts of the 5 guys who ARE starting in the bigs at least Detwiler may have been up there.
• 40-man guys being given shots: Mock.  For unknown reasons Mock continues to be viewed as part of the future for this team.  But if he’s still being considered a starter, he will be in the AAA rotation.  This list also possibly includes Stammen if the team values him more as a starter than a long-reliever.  We’ll see.  They seem to have him converted to a reliever at this point.
• Rising AA guys/prospects: Arneson, Tatusko, Milone: Arneson was in AAA last year but is not on the 40-man and has lived through two rule5 drafts.  He didn’t pitch badly in 2010 but not flashy enough to warrant a look at the MLB level.  Tatusko put up great AA numbers and deserves a shot in AAA.  Milone (and to a lesser extent perhaps even Meyers or Roark) also pitched well enough in AA to be thinking about a move to AAA.
• Non 40-man Vets hanging on: Chico, Martin, Martis, Atilano.   And now add Perez to this list.

So what happens?  I think your AAA rotation will be Maya, Detwiler, Mock, Perez and Tatusko.  Arneson gets bumped to long relief, as does Stammen, Chico, and Martis.  Martin and Atilano may be out of a job.  Milone, Meyers and Roark start in AA with a mindset of rising quickly to replace a promoted starter, or to replace Perez if we give up on him.

Is signing Perez worth delaying the AAA promotion of Milone?  Probably not.  But I agree with putting Perez into the rotation at the expense of any one of Chico, Martin, Martis or Atilano.  I think these latter four guys basically need to be released to make room for the next wave of guys.  If all four passed through waivers and came back to Washington, then there seems to be little chance they will be making it as professionals much longer.

Conclusions: I don’t HATE this move for the Nats.  It is low cost and low risk.  Lets just hope it does not retard the growth of our slew of good-looking AA pitchers.