Nationals Arm Race

Cycle 3 through the Minor league rotations began with a number of double headers on Sunday 4/17.  Which means we’ll get lots of spot-starter opportunities later this week for guys not necessarily in the regular rotations.

Here are the daily links from NationalsProspects, for reference below:

• Sunday 4/17 game reviews (lots of DHs)
• Monday 4/18 game reviews
• Tuesday 4/19 game reviews (3 of 4 affiliates rained out)
• Wednesday 4/20 game reviews (DH for Potomac)
• Thurs 4/21 game reviews (DH for Hagerstown)

Good

• Brad Peacock‘s effort in the night cap of the 4/17 doubleheader made fans forget about the debacle in the first game.  Line: 5IP 2H 2R 1ER 1BB 9K.  He held the same lineup that battered Atilano for 7 runs to just 2 hits over 5.  Peacock is the youngest member (by two full years) of any starter in AA yet is pitching the best so far in the young season.
• Hagerstown’s Bobby Hansen improved on his so-so first outing with a better outing: 6IP 5H 1R 0ER 4BB 4K.  A bit to many walks and baserunners in general, but Hansen got a couple of double plays along the way and worked his way out of a bases-loaded jam in the 5th.
• Harrisburg ace Brad Meyers rebounded from his sub-par outing with a clean 5 innings of work for the win.  Line: 5IP 4H 1ER 0BB 3K.  His one earned run was on a solo-homer.  He remains the #1 candidate to be moved up if Syracuse needs a starter.
• Marcos Frias put in his 2nd excellent start in as many attempts, throwing 6 2/3 scoreless in the Potomac win on 4/18.  Line: 6⅔ IP 4H 0R 2BB 5K.  Its great to see him rebounding from his mediocre season in high-A last year.
• Cameron Selik is living up to his “ace” status in Hagerstown, putting in his 3rd straight dominating performance on 4/18.  Unfortunately his counterpart from Lakewood (Ervis Manzanillo) did him one better, going 6 scoreless innings and leaving the game to the bullpens to determine.   Final line: 5IP 1H 0R 1BB 11K.  He struck out the side in the 1st (inbetween a single and a walk) and the 5th (in order) before departing.
• Danny Rosenbaum got the win in Potomac with an outing that just makes its way into the “good” category.  Line: 7⅓ IP 6H 2R 2ER 5BB 2K.  We don’t have pitch counts in the Milb.com box score, but i’m assuming the team wouldn’t have let Rosenbaum go into the 8th if he was pushing 110 pitches.  5 walks implies lots of pitches.  Rosenbaum worked through one difficult inning (the 3rd) and then effectively scattered the rest of the hits and walks until the 8th.  His 2nd earned run was inherited and allowed to score by reliever Olbrychowski.

Bad

• Luis Atilano did his Nationals career no favors with his 4/17 outing: 1IP 8H 7ER 1BB 1K.  He couldn’t make the AAA rotation out of spring, and he’s put in two mediocre-to-bad outings in AA.  On the bright side, we got to see demoted starter Erik Arneson put in 5 innings of 1-run ball in long relief.  (Note: he has been placed on the minor league DL as of 4/21 per nationalsprospects.com; I wonder if the injury is a “bruised ego.”).
• Late spring training acquisition Lee Hyde has struggled thus far in AAA, and he added fuel to the Carr fire on 4/17 by giving up 2 hits and 3 walks in just a third of an inning to add a bow-tie on a game already gift wrapped for Lehigh Valley.  He’s yet to have a 1-2-3 outing in 5 appearances.
• Not the best outing for Trevor Holder on 4/17: 5⅔ IP 8H 6R 6ER 0BB 4K.   He came undone in two innings, giving up 3 hits in each inning for the majority of the runs scored.
• Alex Caldera could not take advantage of a spot start in the 2nd half of 4/17’s double header, only lasting 3+ innings.  Line: 3IP 5H 4R 4ER 2BB 2K.  Two of the five hits were homers.
• JD Martin was hit around badly in his spot start on 4/18, going for 3⅓ IP 9H 5ER 2BB 1K 2HR.  He only threw 35 of 68 pitches for strikes.  Some observers thought he’d be the “ace” of the AAA staff, but now its questionable if he’ll even get another shot at spot-start or rotation spot.
• Paul Demny had an off night in the first game of a 4/20 double-header in Potomac, getting battered around for 7 hits and 3 walks in just 4 innings (plus one batter in the 5th).  He gave up two homers and had a 4-6 go/fo ratio.  Not a good night for Demny.
• Matt Grace put in his 2nd sub-par outing in a row, getting battered around for 9 hits in 5 innings+, and took the loss.  Final line: 5IP 9H 4R 4ER 1BB 3K.
• Garrett Mock‘s 4/21 outing for Syracuse was so bad, the Masn Nats beat reporter Matt Goessling felt the need to post about it.  And I agree with Goessling’s sentiments; Mock probably has reached the low point of his professional career with this outing.  2 innings pitched (plus 5 additional batters in the third); 4 hits and SEVEN walks to account for 8 runs.
• Ryan Tatusko continues to struggle in Harrisburg, putting in his 3rd straight concerning outing.  This time around: 5⅓ IP 7H 3R 3ER 3BB 4K 0HR.   He threw 82 pitches (49 for strikes).  His line could have been worse: he had two hits erased for double plays, got a tag-out at home to eliminate a 4th possible run, and his bullpen eliminated all his leftover baserunners.
• Chris McKenzie couldn’t improve on his last outing and got hammered for 6 runs in just over 3 innings in the opening game of a day/night DH.  Line: 3⅓ IP 4H 6R 6ER 4BB 3K.  This outing was especially egregious considering that his team had given him a 5-2 lead prior to his calamitous 4th inning.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• Craig Stammen‘s 4/17 start just trailed into the mediocre status for me.  Final line: 6⅔ IP 5H 3R 3ER 2BB 6K but he only threw 62 of 104 pitches for strikes.
• Taylor Jordan‘s 4/17 start could probably be viewed more positively than I have: he only gave up 6 base-runners in 6 innings for an excellent WHIP, but 3 of those runners scored to give him a pedestrian 4.50 ERA on the day.  Only 1 punchout on the day but he got 12 of his 16 balls in play to be grounders.  It isn’t the worst start we’ve seen this week and isn’t too bad considering Jordan’s youth.
• Yuniesky Maya‘s third start in AAA was as mediocre as his second, taking the loss in a game where he got little offensive support.  6IP 7H 3R 3ER 3BB 4K.  10 base runners in 6 innings, and he threw 118 pitches to get there.  The game-log is kind of interesting; he gave up all 3 runs in the first two innings, then settled down with a 1-2-3 3rd inning, then scattered 3 doubles in each of the next three innings.  He threw in a balk in the 1st, which more or less cost him one run that likely wouldn’t have scored otherwise (is it just me or does Maya balk nearly every appearance?   In 5 major league games last year he had 3 balks and 2 wps.  Usually a pitcher can go an entire season without a balk).
• Ross Detwiler‘s mind was probably on a possible spot-start in the majors, but instead went 6 complete on 4/20.  He got the win but didn’t look nearly as dominating as his first 2 starts.  Line: 6IP 9H 3R 3ER 1BB 3K.
• Erik Davis went 5 1/3 for Harrisburg and got a ND.  He gave up 2 runs, but also had 4 walks to go with 4 hits allowed.  He clearly struggled with control all night; 81 pitches but only 46 for strikes.
• Mitchell Clegg knew he had to go deep into the 4/20 nightcap, and he did; pitching 6 complete innings and getting the win for his efforts.  His line wasn’t fantastic: 6IP 7H 4R 4ER 2BB 2K, but he kept the ball down (11-4 grounder/flyball out ratio) and kept his team in the game.
• Paul Applebee got another spot-start in Hagerstown by virtue of all the rainouts, and this time put in a halfway decent line.  He gave up 4 runs (3 earned) on 6 hits through 5, but didn’t walk anyone.  He gave up two leadoff singles in the first, and his defense conspired to allow one of them to score.  He had an awful 2nd inning, giving up 3 runs on a single and 2 doubles, but then calmed down and set down 9 straight before exiting after 5.  The Hickory team was running wild with Applebee on the mound; 4 stolen bases out of 6 baserunners.  He may have a mechanical glitch or be incredibly slow to the plate.  I don’t think Applebee has earned his way back into the rotation yet, but the other starters in Hagerstown are struggling, and he may see more starts.

Relievers of Note and other Thoughts

• Adam Carr got absolutely shelled on 4/17; 2/3 of an inning, 5 hits, 5 runs and two homers.  Hopefully it is a one-off as his first three appearances were relatively clean.
• Erik Arneson (as noted above) pitched 5 relatively clean innings in a long-relief situation.  It is always tough to figure out if teams let up when they’re up by 7-8 runs, so it is with a slight grain of salt that we give full credit to the pitcher in a situation like this.
• Chris Manno continues his hot streak in Hagerstown, getting the win 4/18 with a 2k scoreless inning.  He was the unlucky loser on 4/21, getting a blown save and a loss despite not giving up an earned run.  The recap reads like a comedy of errors; a leadoff single turns into a run on a 3-base throwing error by the 3rd baseman Nichols, who then counfounds his error by somehow allowing a runner on third score on another grounder he fielded (were they not playing infield in?).  Then he throws the NEXT ball away as well for his 2nd error (but 3rd miscue) of the inning.  Ahh, low-A baseball.
• Henry Rodriguez‘s rehabilitation appearances are looking better and better.  He went 2 complete innings on 4/20, throwing 37 pitches in all.  This is good news for the big club.  His walk rate is still a bit high, but his K rate balances it out.
• Chad Jenkins had an ugly outing on 4/20, giving up 3 hits, a walk, a stolen base and 2 wild pitches en route to a 3 run inning.  Lets hope this isn’t the norm for Jenkins, who seems to be moving further and further down the depth chart in Hagerstown.
• I’m beginning to question whether or not Lee Hyde will continue to be employed by the Nats by the end of April.  He allowed all three of Mock’s inherited runs to score on 4/21, then proceeded to give up another four runs of his own over the next two innings.  He’s yet to have any semblance of a clean outing (his best outing was a 2/3 of an inning appearance where he still managed to walk one guy).  Through 7 1/3 innings pitched he’s given up 14 hits, 9 walks and 9 earned runs.

Summary

Not a lot to be happy about in the system this time around.  It shows in the sub-.500 records of our affiliates.

Former Kansas standout Cameron Selik has been a find for the Hagerstown rotation in 2011.

Turn #2 through the minor league rotations has completed.  Here’s a look at our starters.

Here are the daily links from NationalsProspects, for reference below:

• Tuesday 4/12 game reviews
• Wednesday 4/13 game reviews (DHs for Hagerstown and Potomac)
• Thursday 4/14 game reviews (DH for Syracuse)
• Friday 4/15 game reviews
• Saturday 4/16 game reviews (mostly rainouts; lots of DHs on sunday)

Good

• Taylor Jordan finally gets his turn in the Hagerstown rotation and pitches very effectively; 5IP 2H 0R 1BB 5K.  Not bad for a 5th starter in low-A.
• Paul Demny put up a nice line in a ND on a cold night on 4/13: 5 2/3, 1ER, 3 hits and 1bb with 4ks.  The one earned run was inherited and allowed to score by Paul Demmin who relieved him in the 6th and allowed a game-tying homer.
• Cameron Selik escaped a rough 1st inning and cruised for another 4, pitching 5 shut out innings for the 2nd outing in a row.  Final line: 5ip, 4hits, 2bbs, 0runs and 5ks.  Can’t beat a 0.00 era through 2 starts.
• Ross Detwiler‘s 2nd start was still good, albeit not quite as dominant as his first.  Line: 6IP 6H 1ER 2BB 4K.  Most of the hits were singles, well scattered.
• Erik Davis threw a shortened start (having been originally scheduled to go two days prior, only to have his game rained out).  Final line: 4IP 3H 0R 2BB 6K.  I’ll take 6ks in 4 innings in AA any day.
• Another good start for Potomac Ace Denny Rosenbaum, though his bullpen conspired to blow his Win.  Line: 5IP 5H 1R 1ER 2BB 6K.

Bad

• Jimmy Barthaimer‘s spot start in Harrisburg went badly: 2⅔ IP 5H 5ER 3BB 4K.  I like the K rate but 5 earned runs in 2 and 2/3s gave him the loss.
• Brad Meyers couldn’t follow up his gem and was touched for 9 hits in 4 2/3 inning in a loss on 4/13.  Final line: 4 2/3, 9hits, 4er, 5ks, 0bbs.  On the bright side, no walks and 60 of 84 pitches for strikes.
• Paul Applebee was hit hard in his Hagerstown spot start on 4/13: 4 2/3ip, 6hits, 5 runs, 2 walks and he gave up two gopher balls.   Oddly, the two homers were given up to the #8 hitter and the leadoff hitter in quick succession.
• Matt Grace got shelled on 4/14; 4IP 11H 6R 6ER 1BB 1K 2HR.  Not an impressive follow up to his first start.
• Garrett Mock continued to show why his retention is questioned by some observers.  He walked 7 of the 20 batters he faced and failed to get out of the 4th inning despite throwing 91 pitches (only 47 of which were for strikes).  He even threw in a balk to boot.  Final line on 4/15: 3⅔ IP 2H 3R 3ER 7BB 2K.  His frustration was evident; getting ejected in the 7th inning while sitting in the dugout.
• Ryan Tatusko followed up a shaky first start with a downright awful one: 3⅔ IP 10H 7R 7ER 3BB 2K on friday.  10 hits and 3 walks meant that 13 of the 23 batters he faced reached base.  That’s really tough to do.
• Christopher McKenzie went from a good first start to a shaky second start for Hagerstown.  Line on 4/15: 3⅓ IP 7H 5R 5ER 6BB 1K.  He’s averaging more than a walk an inning on the season and isn’t getting the strikeouts we saw last year.  He may be the starter to make way when Sammy Solis is ready to come off the DL.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• Brad Peacock‘s 4/12 start line: 4⅔ IP 7H 2ER 1BB 3K.  Too many base-runners, though he managed to work around a lot of those runners to only allow the 2 runs.
• Mitchell Clegg‘s outing in the nightcap on 4/13 was so so: 4ip, 4hits, 2er, 1 bb and 3ks.  He also uncorked 2 wild pitches, had a hit batsman and balked during his brief outing (both of which factored into his first earned run allowed).  It sounds like it could have been worse for Clegg, who got a ND for his troubles on the night.
• Yuneski Maya‘s 2nd start was better than his first: 5⅔ IP 4H 2ER BB 5K and a no-decision.  Lets just hope he continues to settle down and improve.
• Tom Milone took the loss on saturday 4/16 despite getting a quality start.  Line: 6IP 6H 3R 3ER 0BB 5K.   Two of the 6 hits were solo homers (oddly, to the #’s 6 and 8 hitters), otherwise this was a decent outing.

Relievers of Note and other Thoughts

• Chris Manno‘s 4/12 line: 2IP 1H 0R 0BB 5K.  Wow!  The Manno-maniacs (is that the name of your fan club?) are ecstatic.  What a find this guy is looking like early in the 2011 season.  He threw another couple scoreless innings on 4/15 and he’s yet to give up a run in 2011.
• Erik Arneson pitched 3 1/3 innings of scoreless long relief on 4/13.  It could be interesting to see if he pitches his way out of the spot-starter role in AA and returns to the rotation.
• Cory VanAllen put in a nifty 3 inning stint to finish off a win for Erik Davis; 3ip 4ks and 2 hits (one homer).  He may not have succeeded as a starter, but he could provide LOOGY backup for the organization.
• Hassan Pena had a nifty relief appearance on 4/15: 2ip with 5ks.  The converted starter is repeating AA this year and is looking to improve on a 4.29 era in 2010.

Trends

Eventually i’ll post the trends of the starters, but with half the system with just one start b/c of rainouts, we’ll wait til next time.

Summary: Our spot starters didn’t help out at all, and they’ll probably get another opportunity in this next rotation cycle because of all the rainouts.  Lots of starters took steps back their 2nd time through.   Detwiler continues to look sharp, but there’s no room for him at the MLB level with our starters throwing so effectively.  A good problem to have.

Detwiler's first start in AAA was masterful. Photo: Cathy T via nationalsdailynews.com

Because of the importance of developing starting pitching in the modern baseball game, I’ve always tried to focus on the minor league rotations, looking for the next John Lannan (meaning, a lower round draft pick never expected to become a regular MLB starter) to rise through and force his way into the discussion for 2011 and beyond.  With 4 full-season teams all starting at the same time (and 2 more short-season teams starting up mid-June), i’ll try to do a quick review of the progress, start by start, of our minor league affiliates.  I will focus mostly on Starters but mention relievers of note.

For this analysis I depend heavily on the excellent reviews at NationalsProspects.com, as well as a series of level-by-level links that you can find at my personal “cheat sheet” of websites (scroll to the bottom for the affiliate-specific links for rosters, stats, schedules, and local paper links).  If it were not for “Sue Dinem” and April Whitzman at that site carrying on the flame for Brian Oliver and natsfarmauthority.com, it would be far more difficult to follow the minor leagues for all of us.  Thank you, again, for all that you do.

Here are the daily links from NationalsProspects, for reference below:

• Thursday 4/7 game reviews (opening day for most minor league affiliates)
• Friday 4/8 game reviews
• Saturday 4/9 game reviews
• Sunday 4/10 game reviews
• Monday 4/11 game reviews

Good

• Brad Meyers picks up right where he left off last season: 5IP 4H 0R 0BB 9K in his opening day start.  The staff had 15 k’s on the day against a very strong Bowie team (11 of the Orioles’ top 30 prospects are at Bowie).
• Cameron Selik‘s professional starting debut went very well in Hagerstown: 5IP 4H 0R 0BB 4K.  Not as overpowering as Meyers but 5 shutout innings with no walks is a good sign.
• Ross Detwiler‘s AAA debut was quite dominant; 6IP 4H 1ER 1BB 8K.  Remember, he’s not in AAA because he didn’t pitch his way off the major league roster.  I still believe he’s the first to be called up when needed.
• Lefty Matt Grace pitched well in his debut in Hagerstown: 6IP 4H 0R 0BB 4K.  I like the sleeper capabilities of Grace, an 8th round pick in 2010 out of UCLA.
• Garrett Mock‘s Nationals career continues on; he went 5 2/3s, 3 hits, 3bbs 1 run (on a homer) and 6 Ks in a ND against the Philadelphia AAA team from Lehigh Valley.
• Chris McKenzie‘s initial start was very good: 5IP 1H 1R 1ER 3BB 3K.  He’s young too; he doesn’t turn 22 til after the season.  A far cry from his numbers up in Vermont last season.
• Tom Milone’s 4/10 start was clean and efficient: 7.0IP 5H 0ER 0BB 4K.  You can’t quibble with 7 shutout innings and no walks in AAA.  All he’s done the last two seasons is produce, level by level.
• Craig Stammen‘s return to the rotation (after seemingly being considered for the MLB club as a middle reliever during spring training) went well: 5IP 3H 1ER 1BB 3K.  He’s in a tough spot; his FIP/xFIP numbers last year indicated he was pitching around MLB average for all starters (his numbers were 3.95/3.97, MLB median for qualified starters in 2010 was 3.85/4.09).  But his “regular” numbers were bad; era of 5.06 and whip of 1.46.  In some ways he’s kinda like JD Martin; he doesn’t really dazzle you with his stuff, but he gets it done.
• Marcos Frias took a loss in his opening start for Potomac but pitched well; 6IP 4H 1R 1ER 1BB 2K.  Lets hope his 2nd year in high-A goes better than his first (a 5.69 era in 2010).

Bad

• Yunesky Maya‘s opening day start was horrible.  4.2IP 8H 5ER 2BB 2K 1HR.  I’m a big Maya fan and want to see him succeed, but lines like this will make his signing seem like a mistake.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• Ryan Tatusko‘s first start was cut short after just 4 innings (not sure why; he was only at 73 pitches).  4 hits, 4 walks, 5 Ks and 2 earned runs for a mediocre start.  Harrisburg’s offense couldn’t score any runs on the day so he wasn’t getting the Win regardless.
• Denny Rosenbaum‘s loss on 4/9 wasn’t that bad really; 5IP 2H 3R 2ER 3BB 4K.  Sue Dinem reported that two walks and an error led to a bases-clearing double.  Rosenbaum struck out 4 of the first 7 batters he faced, then retired the last 8 hitters after the double.  So I like the capability of dominance.
• Luis Atilano‘s line in his AA start (5.0IP 4H 2ER 2BB 2K) may seem ok, but I’d expect more from a guy who was pitching in the majors last year.  He is coming back from elbow surgery, so perhaps this is just rust.  Either way, i’m slightly surprised at this point to see him in any of our minor league rotations, given his removal from the 40-man and thus his lowered prospect status.
• Trevor Holder had a so-so start in high-A; 6IP 6H 3R 3ER 2BB 3K.  Potomac blogger Sue Dinem notes that (paraphrasing) Holder doesn’t have blow-it-by-you stuff and has to keep his pitches down to succeed (something he didn’t do much of yesterday).  I agree with commenters on the above link; Holder was an overdraft to begin with and was just OK last year in Potomac.  He may be bound for the bullpen.
• Bobby Hansen‘s first Hagerstown start was decent: 5IP 7H 2R 2ER BB 5K.  Too many baserunners but I like the K/inning rate.  He’s a youngster (doesn’t turn 22 til after the season) and a lefty, so I won’t be too critical.

Other notes/thoughts

• The Hagerstown Rotation has been fun to predict and now see unfold for those of us who track these things.  My offseason prediction was Solis, Clegg, Demny, Jenkins, and Grace.  Then when the roster was announced (and as it turned out Clegg/Demny were in high-A and Solis on the DL) I predicted Grace, Hansen, Jenkins, Jordan and McKenzie.  One turn through the rotation now seems to be Selik, Grace, McKenzie, Hansen and Jordan, with Applebee as a spot-starter.  Solis probably is still in the picture; he had a muscle injury and is extended spring training right now.
• JD Martin, whose retainment I have questioned in this forum based on his lack of upside, his age and his here-to-fore demonstrated performance in the majors, seems (at least so far) to be the long-man out of Syracuse’s bullpen and NOT in the rotation.  He pitched 4 innings of relief on 4/8, and while he pitched well (4IP 1H 0R 1BB 3K) I still don’t see him in the majors for us again (he successfully was outrighted to AAA and his 40-man slot may never appear again).
• As a possible consequence of the Martin decision, Craig Stammen is (at least for now) featuring as a AAA starter.  I find this somewhat encouraging for him right now; I think he can still produce as a starter.  But he may get moved to long-man as our AA prospects force promotions.
• Matt Chico seems to be now relegated to a LOOGY role in AAA, which may not be a bad thing for the team.  Slaten has struggled in the role and Chico could make his way back to the majors in a lefty specialist role.  I like this option, since Chico clearly can be stretched out and give the team spot starter/long relief as needed (especially since the team basically can’t use Broderick for anything but mop up duty right now).
• Commenter favorite Christopher Manno indeed seems to be the closer in Hagerstown, getting the save in friday’s game.
• Newly acquired Alex Caldera is off to a rocky start; he got absolutely shelled on 4/11.
• Late spring training acquisition Lee Hyde has been up and down so far for Syracuse.

Summary

All in all, a bunch of really encouraging starts up and down the system during the season’s first week.   Great news.  Only one really “bad” start in the whole system.  A bunch of rain outs over the last couple days prevented us from seeing several starters during the first “turn” through the rotation, but double headers for Potomac and Hagerstown will get everyone started.

Thanks to Masn’s Byron Kerr for the release of the Hagerstown roster on 4/4/11.  While most people will be focused on one Bryce Harper‘s inclusion on this roster, I’m interested (per the title of the blog) in the pitchers.   Here’s the list, cut-n-pasted from Kerr’s article.:

LHP Paul Applebee
RHP Sam Brown
RHP Wilson Eusebio
LHP Matt Grace
RHP Ben Graham
LHP Bobby Hansen
LHP Chad Jenkins
RHP Taylor Jordan
LHP Christopher Manno
RHP Shane McCatty
RHP Christopher McKenzie
RHP Cameron Selik
RHP Matt Swynenberg

Based on these player’s organizational roles and their status from last year, here’s how i’m guessing they play out:

Starters: Applebee, Grace, Hansen, Jenkins, Jordan
bullpen: Eusebio, McCatty, McKenzie, Selik, Brown, Manno, Swynenberg, Graham

Thoughts

• My initial prediction for the low-A rotation was: Solis, Clegg, Demny, Ott/Jenkins, Grace.  Demny and Clegg are in the high-A squad.  I thought Applebee would be in Potomac; now he seems set to repeat low-A and may be first in line to be promoted.  I thought perhaps Hansen and Jordan would be almost “inbetween” levels, having not really done that well in short-A but having a full low-A rotation.
• Swyndenberg could be in the rotation or he could be a spot starter.  He mostly was a starter last year.
• Sam Brown?  Where’d he come from?  He seems to be this guy, formerly of the Texas organization.  Did he get thrown into a trade somewhere?  He seems too young to have been a minor league free agent.
• Sammy Solis is hurt and will be on (presumably) low-A’s DL to start the year.
• Where is Billy Ott?  Ott is listed on the Auburn short-A squad, which makes no sense since it won’t start play til mid June.  He may be in extended spring.
• Hansen, Jenkins and Jordan making the jump from last year’s short-A squad.  Manno jumping straight from the GCL (the only one going to a full-season squad apparently).
• I really don’t know who will be the closer; of the list of guys there only Selik even had a save last year.

Missing from 2010:

• Ott and Hicks: they ended the year in Hagerstown’s rotation and now they’re not on any full season roster.
• Bronson: I thought he’d be in the high-A rotation; now he’s not even on any full season roster?
• Other names not on any full-season squad: Arnold, Vasquez, Weaver, Erb, Garcia, Gibson.  Weaver is a bit surprising; he seemed to be throwing decently well last year.  Perhaps he’s hurt.
• Willems: the former supp-1st rounder who retired mid 2010.
• McGeary: on the mend from tommy john surgery.

I was out of town, and away from computer for the long weekend.  A bad time to be away for my particular blog, which endeavors to talk about the pitching staffs of both the big club and the farm systems.  After announcing AAA and AA rosters earlier, the high-A and low-A rosters were announced on 4/4/11.

Here’s the slate of high-A pitchers, per Byron Kerr’s masn article.

RHP Alex Caldera
LHP Mitchell Clegg
LHP Ryan Demmin
RHP Paul Demny
RHP Marcos Frias
RHP Trevor Holder
RHP Pat Lehman
RHP Carlos Martinez
RHP Kyle Morrison
RHP Adam Olbrychowski
LHP Danny Rosenbaum
LHP Josh Smoker
RHP Rob Wort

Based on these pitcher’s roles in the past, here’s my guess as to roles for this team:

starters: Caldera, Holder, Demny, Rosenbaum, Clegg
bullpen: Frias, Smoker, Wort (closer?), Morrison, Lehman, Demmin (loogy?), CMartinez, Olbrychowski

Thoughts:

• I initially predicted Frias, Rosenbaum, Bronson, Fabian, Applebee, Lehman for this rotation.   Frias probably gets demoted to being a spot starter based on last year’s high ERA in the starter role.  Same with Lehman to a certain extent.  Clegg and Demny must have had great springs; i thought they’d be back in low-A.  Holder I thought would be moved up to AA; he may be first in line to be promoted.   We’ll see where Bronson, Fabian and Applebee end up once they announce the low-A roster.
• Where is Robinson Fabian?  I thought he’d be in the high-A rotation after getting a handful of starts last  year, but he doesn’t appear on any roster right now.
• Carlos Martinez?  He’s 27 and basically has pitched at the single-A level in our system for years.  Is this still a prospect?  Or is his placement on the roster more of a filler/rubber arm mop up guy?
• New faces to the organization: Adam Olbrychowski is our trade bounty for Justin Maxwell.  He is a converted starter who had some AA time last year but starts in high-A.  Alex Caldera was purchased from Kansas City earlier this spring training.  He was a Carolina league all star last year but struggled in AA, so he’s essentially repeating this level.
• I’m guessing Josh Smoker‘s days as a starter are over.

Missing from last year:

• Atwood, Pecina, JEstrada all either retired or were released mid 2010.
• Jaime was released and claimed, Morris was traded.
• Fabian, Dill, Phillibaum, Alaniz, Testa and Beno: no idea where these guys are.

Thanks to peric, via Sue Dienem’s NationalsProspects blog, for the AAA roster announcement today.

Here’s the roster of pitchers.

PITCHERS
Collin Balester
Adam Carr
Matt Chico
Ross Detwiler
Lee Hyde
Cole Kimball
J.D. Martin
Yunesky Maya
Tom Milone
Garrett Mock
Craig Stammen
Josh Wilkie
Based on their known roles in the organization and locations last year, here’s my guess for the pitching roles:

Starters: Detwiler, Maya, Mock, Milone, Chico
bullpen: Kimball (closer), Wilkie, Carr, Martin, Stammen, Hyde, Balester

Observations:

• I think it is pretty clear that Detwiler, Maya, Milone, and Mock are the first four starters.  I’m guessing (unlike Syracuse beat writer Tom Leo, who thinks Martin is the 5th starter) that Chico is the 5th starter for the time being, in that he’s lefty, younger and has more potential than the soft-tossing 28yr old Martin.
• The above point could change if the team decides that Chico’s ceiling is as a LOOGY.  But, Hyde seems to be that loogy role now in AAA.  Especially since 40-man member Severino is not on either the AAA or the AA roster right now.  I think he’s not long for the team and we should see a DFA announcement the next time we need a roster spot.
• I’m somewhat surprised to see Milone up here over Tatusko, if only because of age.  Both were dominant pitchers last year in AA and both merited promotion.  Milone is a 24 yr old lefty who has put up 12-5 seasons in subsequent levels in 09 and 2010.  He is perhaps another dark horse for the 2011 rotation.
• Stammen‘s conversion to the bullpen seems complete.  I hope he can make it as a middle reliever.
• Balester‘s presence is an unfortunate options game; he really deserves to be up with the big club and I hope he keeps his focus while riding the bus in Syracause.

Who is missing?

• Known releases from 2010’s team include Kown, Bergmann, and Bisenius. Kown and Bisenius were minor league free agents last year, and we cut loose Bergmann (who I believe got picked up by either Baltimore or Boston for spring training 2011).
• Where is Severino, Martis and Villone?  Villone may be in Viera to serve as a “player-coach” for a while.  Martis’ absence indicates just how far he’s fallen in the pecking order of this team.  As mentioned above, Severino’s absense means he may be dumped from the 40-man roster after losing out to Slaten in the loogy-battle in spring training.
• More interestingly: where is Oliver Perez?  I would have been certain he would have been in the AAA rotation.  I wonder if he’s sticking around Viera to work on some mechanical issues.
• Where is Tanner Roark, Rafael Martin and Adrian Alaniz?  Now that we have both the AAA and the AA rosters, we’re also missing guys like Spradlin, Dials, Novoa, Zinicola, CJames, JJones, and Leatherman.  Some we know have been released (Spradlin); others were minor league FA signings last year and probably signed elsewhere (CJames, JJones), and some may still appear in the High-A bullpen.

Can’t wait to see Potomac’s roster!

A few hours after the parent club lost their opening day game, the AA roster was announced for the start of the 2011 season.  I think it was kind of odd to announce the AA roster prior to the AAA roster, or to announce it separately than the other full season squads, but it does make for some interesting analysis already.

To borrow from Byron Kerr’s article above, here’s the 12-man pitching roster:

Pitchers:

RHP Erik Arnesen
RHP Luis Atilano
RHP Jimmy Barthmaier
RHP Erik Davis
RHP Jeff Mandel
RHP Ryan Mattheus
LHP Pat McCoy
RHP Brad Meyers
RHP Brad Peacock
RHP Hassan Pena
RHP Ryan Tatusko
LHP Cory VanAllen

Based on the roles from last year, plus the organizational status of some of these guys, here’s how I think the roles shake out:

Starters: Meyers, Peacock, Tatusko, EDavis, Arneson
bullpen: Mandel (closer), VanAllen (L), HPena, Mattheus, McCoy (L), Barthmaier, Atilano

First thoughts:

• Arneson gets dumped back to AA after pitching half the year in AAA.  This probably is due to the overflow of starters in AAA we have now, including newly signed reclamation project Oliver Perez.  Not that Arneson was a fantastic prospect for us last year, but i’m sure some people will not be happy that his advancement is being displaced by the Perez experiment.
• Atilano goes from the 40-man and pitching regularly in 2010 to passing through waivers and being assigned to AA in 2011.  This probably indicates that, unless he pitches like the 2nd coming of Tim Lincecum this year, he’s officially designated “organizational guy.”
• Mattheus may be a starter instead of Arneson, frankly.  It will be interesting to see how he does post TJ surgery.
• Tatusko: it is disappointing he’s not with the AAA squad because he definitely earned the promotion.
• Peacock and new acquisition Erik Davis start where I thought they would; no surprises here.  Same to a certain extent with Brad Meyers, who was fantastic last year before going down with injury.  He seems to be the real starter prospect on the AA squad and may feature in the 2011 rotation battle with the big club.

Now, for the surprises.  Where are these guys?

• Milone and Holder; I guess they start the year in high-A again
• Roark: where is he?  My guess would be the AAA bullpen since there’s no way he should be dumped back to high-A.
• Alaniz: not that he was a great prospect himself, but he is far too old to be starting in high-A again.  I’m guessing he’s in the AAA bullpen mix or flat out released.

Can’t wait to see the next round of announcements (which i’m hoping have not already occurred as i write this).

Perez's down and out of NY; can he come back with the Nats? Photo: metzilla.com/baseballlatinamerica.com

Word came down on March 21st that the New York Mets had finally given up on Oliver Perez turning his career around and flat out released him.  He had a great 2007 season, going 15-10 in a full season starting for a nifty 121 era+.  Despite coming back down to earth in 2008, the Mets signed him to a 3yr/$36M contract for 2009-11.  He got hurt in 2009, was grossly ineffective in 2010, and now the Mets have decided to eat his entire $12m salary just to be rid of him in 2011.  He was reportedly only throwing in the mid 80s and the Mets were looking at him as a Loogy, not a starter or even a long reliever.

Two days later, Nats fans hear that he’s signed a minor league deal with Washington.  Beat reporters Goessling and Zuckerman nicely summed up similar thoughts to me with respect to this move and what it may mean for the AAA rotation.  But here’s some questions and answers about the move.

Q: Why didn’t the Mets try to trade him? The answer is probably along the lines of, who would want to assume $12M of salary?  Perhaps if the deal was Perez plus $11M for a prospect.  But Perez has looked so bad, his velocity so far below where it used to be, that the Mets probably figured no team would trade anything of value for him.

Q: Why didn’t the Mets just assign him to AAA to keep him? Perez has enough MLB service that he could refuse the assignment and become a free agent, essentially putting him in the exact same spot he is now by virtue of his unconditional release.

Q: Why would the Nats possibly want him? This is a very low risk, low cost move.  Even if he makes the majors we’re not paying anything more than the MLB minimum salary for him (somewhere in the $450k range).  He has already agreed to go to AAA, where he could NOT go for New York.  He can go to AAA, work on his mechanics in a low-stress, low-visibility environment and try to regain what once made him a great prospect.

Q: Is the displacement of other AAA pitchers worth the risk?  Assuming that Perez is treated like a starter, we’re probably now looking at this for the AAA rotation:

• Locks: Maya and Detwiler.  These guys are options 1A and 1B for rising to the majors, and if it were not for option statuses or contracts of the 5 guys who ARE starting in the bigs at least Detwiler may have been up there.
• 40-man guys being given shots: Mock.  For unknown reasons Mock continues to be viewed as part of the future for this team.  But if he’s still being considered a starter, he will be in the AAA rotation.  This list also possibly includes Stammen if the team values him more as a starter than a long-reliever.  We’ll see.  They seem to have him converted to a reliever at this point.
• Rising AA guys/prospects: Arneson, Tatusko, Milone: Arneson was in AAA last year but is not on the 40-man and has lived through two rule5 drafts.  He didn’t pitch badly in 2010 but not flashy enough to warrant a look at the MLB level.  Tatusko put up great AA numbers and deserves a shot in AAA.  Milone (and to a lesser extent perhaps even Meyers or Roark) also pitched well enough in AA to be thinking about a move to AAA.
• Non 40-man Vets hanging on: Chico, Martin, Martis, Atilano.   And now add Perez to this list.

So what happens?  I think your AAA rotation will be Maya, Detwiler, Mock, Perez and Tatusko.  Arneson gets bumped to long relief, as does Stammen, Chico, and Martis.  Martin and Atilano may be out of a job.  Milone, Meyers and Roark start in AA with a mindset of rising quickly to replace a promoted starter, or to replace Perez if we give up on him.

Is signing Perez worth delaying the AAA promotion of Milone?  Probably not.  But I agree with putting Perez into the rotation at the expense of any one of Chico, Martin, Martis or Atilano.  I think these latter four guys basically need to be released to make room for the next wave of guys.  If all four passed through waivers and came back to Washington, then there seems to be little chance they will be making it as professionals much longer.

Conclusions: I don’t HATE this move for the Nats.  It is low cost and low risk.  Lets just hope it does not retard the growth of our slew of good-looking AA pitchers.

Marquis has looked arguably the best of any starter this spring. Photo: AP/silive.com

After the 2nd week of games and the official halfway point of Spring Training, here’s some quick comments on how some various pitchers have looked in the second week of Spring Training Games.  I’ve been keeping running commentary all week as each game happens.  The link to my week one’s thoughts/observations is here, posted on 3/6.

Also, here’s perma- links to the NatsJournal blog‘s running game comments as well as box scores (when I could find them).

• 3/6: vs Braves, box score
• 3/7: vs Astros, box score
• 3/8: at the Mets, box score
• 3/9: at the Marlins, box score
• 3/10: split squad vs the Mets (box score), and at Astros (box score)
• 3/11: vs Astros (box score)
• 3/12: vs Yankees (box score)

The Good

• Jason Marquis: 4 ip, 2 hits and a walk against Atlanta on 3/9 to continue his scoreless inning streak further into spring training.  Lots of ground balls, meaning he has his sinker back.
• Adam Carr: 6 up and 6 down on 3/8.  This didn’t stop him from being cut from the major league squad, but a bright future awaits this fellow.
• Brian Broderick: continues to pitch well, but his Rule5 status complicates his ability to make this team (see my whole missive on Gorzelanny and his job-by-option-status post here).
• Cole Kimball: big time right handed power pitcher showing his worth by continuing to punch guys out with regularity.  Could be first in line to replace a bullpen member who goes down with injury or non-performance.
• Ross Detwiler: Struck out 5 in 3 innings against a strong Braves lineup on 3/6.  Stretched out to 4 innings on 3/11 and added a few more K’s (along with a couple runs) but reportedly looked decent.  I agree with a couple other bloggers on this point; we talk about how Detwiler is competing for the 5th spot, but is it really Lannan that is in trouble?  (see further down for Lannan comments).
• Todd Coffey: Struck out the side on 3/9, had 2 more K’s in a 1-2-3 inning on 3/7.  Looks like he may be a decent replacement for Batista/Peralta from last year’s bullpen.
• Chad Gaudin: looked good against a very weak Mets team 3/10, pitching 5 shutout innings scattering a few hits and walks  (final numbers: 5ip, 6K, allows 4 hits with a walk. 78 pitches 52 strikes, thanks to Craig Heist).  Despite this he has no chance at the MLB rotation.  I presume he’ll be in the AAA rotation to start the season and seems to be putting himself above other AAA starters such as Chico and Martis in the pecking order.

The Bad

• Atahualpa Severino: bombed on 3/8, he’s looking like he’s gonna be 2nd best in the Loogy race to Slaten.  He’s already been optioned to AAA and may be vulnerable to being removed from the 40-man roster.  That being said…
• Doug Slaten got rocked himself on 3/9.  He’ll be given some room since he was so successful last year, but we need one of these two guys to own that Loogy role.  We don’t want to waste Burnett on man-to-man matchups.  In other news, the Nats signed Ron Villone to a minor league deal this week, which i’m predicting is partly (as Kilgore says) because they like him and part Loogy insurance.
• Garrett Mock: didn’ t help his cause by giving up a bomb against the Astros.  He’s now given up 4 hits and 5 walks in 2ip.  He’s looking like AAA bullpen fodder and possibly not long for the 40-man.  I don’t care how good his “stuff” is; if he can’t compete against fringy roster guys in the middle innings of a spring training game, then he cannot be counted on in real games come April.  Update: cut from the major league squad and will get into the AAA rotation.
• John Lannan:  Did not look good in his 3/12 start; too many walks and too many hard hit balls.  For the spring he’s sporting nearly a 9.00 ERA.  With Detwiler looking so strong, is Lannan in peril of starting the season in the minors?

The Iffy or Possibly Concerning.

• Jordan Zimmerman‘s 3/8 start “looked” good but those on hand used words like “shaky” and “hit hard.”  His fastball was 92-94 though.  For Zimmermann, the velocity is the key.  We know he has good stuff; we just need to know his fastball is recovered from TJ surgery.
• Yunesky Maya‘s 3/7 start was shaky at best.  5  hits and a walk in 2 2/3s innings versus a weaker Astro’s lineup.  He threw again on 3/12, gave up an unearned run and seemed to struggle with his fastball locations (the unearned run was on a 3-base error that Cano smoked but Bernadina dropped).  He pitched 4 complete, gave up 2 hits, walked 3 and struck out 3 (some with his loopy 12-6 curve ball).
• Drew Storen got lit up again on 3/7 but we had word that the coaches told him to spot his fastball.  Well, that may explain why.  Hey McCatty; tell us when he’s really trying out there so we know what is going on.  He recovered for a decent outing on 3/10, punctuated with 3 straight Ks against AAA competition.
• Tom Gorzelanny: my post questioning his acquisition garnered quite a spirited response.  The comments i’m about to make probably will too.  His first outing in the spring did not exactly vindicate his nearly-guaranteed active roster spot.  His line: 2.1 IP, 3 R, 2 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 1 K against a weakened Astros split squad.   He only managed 23 strikes in 47 pitches.  Nobody seems to have mph readings but he was clocked only in the upper 80s earlier this week.  For him to stick and be successful we need to see a return to 92-93.
• Livan Hernandez: his 3/11 start did not garner confidence, apparently getting hit all around the park.  Bad defense behind him (and some generous scoring) made his line (3ip, 7hits, 1bb, 1k, 3ER) look worse than it was.  We know that Livan will put up a stinker every once in a while; just can’t make it a habit.

Unlike in years past, the Nats rookie league in 2010 existed in large part to provide rehab starts for guys coming back from injury.  By my count, 14 of the 56 starts in GCL last year were either rehab starts or “extended spring training” starts for guys that were headed for upper levels.  This may have been due to the lack of young starting pitcher prospects available to us, since the starts we did get from prospects in the GCL (Hanks, Meza, KLopez, King) were as unimpressive as the starts we got out of Vermont.

That being said, here’s how the GCL staff ended 2010 (GCL usually goes with a 6-man rotation)

Rotation: Hanks 20, Meza 20, KLopez 20, King 20, Encarnacion 21
(rotation order: King, Meza, Hanks, Encarnacion, KLopez
bullpen: MRivera, Baez, Gallo, MRivera, Dupuis, Santiago, Navarro, Gerler, Serino, Meister, Mower, Grace
spot starts: Baez 18, Grace 21
promotions: Hansen, Barthmaier, CMartinez, OHernandez, Ott
up-and-back:
demotions:
dl: Garrett, Karns, Manno
cut/retired:

Livan’s 1/2 brother Orlando “El Duque” Hernandez spent some time baffling 19 year olds in the GCL before moving on up the system.  He was signed (in all likelihood) to grease the skids for signing his compatriot Yunesky Maya, and quit the AA team in a huff when he didn’t get a Sept 1 callup.  Personally I would have called him up to see what he had; he’s an ageless mechanic who very well may have entertained the bullpen for a few weeks and a couple dozen meaningless games.

Here’s the rest of the guys who got starts in the GCL:

• Tyler Hanks: 20yr old 17th round juco pick, a former teammate of Bryce Harpers.  Decent numbers (4-1, 3.59 era) in a mixture of relief and starting appearances.  2011 Outlook: He’ll probably get a shot at the short-A rotation.
• Christian Meza 20yr old 25th round juco signing in 2010 who put up some of the best numbers of our GCL rotation.  1.52 era and 23 Ks in 23 2/3 innings to earn a quick callup to short-A.  He’s a slighter framed lefty who could be a diamond in the rough.  2011 outlook: he seems destined for the bullpen, so I’ll guess he moves to Hagerstown’s bullpen.
• Kelvin Lopez 20yr old international signing who lead the team in IP for 2010.  Not very impressive numbers though; 4.44 era, 26/12 k/bb in 42 innings.  2011 outlook: based on his age I’d guess he features in the short-A rotation competition.
• Brandon King 20yr old 27th round high schooler in 2009 who had just awful numbers in the GCL in 2010.  10.32 era but only 11 innings pitched.  I cannot remember if he was injured at some point between now and his draft date but seem to remember that he was.  2011 outlook: We gave him a rather large bonus ($250k, or about 4th round money) so we’ll probably continue to test him out.  I can see him back in GCL for 2011.
• Pedro Encarnacion 21yr old DSL grad who had mediocre numbers with little power (he had nearly as many Ks as BBs).  2011 outlook: may be near the end of his Nats career.  Perhaps converted to a bullpen guy in short- or low-A.
• Gregory Baez 18yr old lefty DSL graduate.  He’s tall, skinny and throws hard (40 ks in 38 innings).  2011 Outlook: stays in extended spring for a bit and then gives short-A rotation a try.
• Matthew Grace 21yr old lefty starter out of UCLA, an 8th round draft pick in 2010.  Not the greatest numbers in the GCL or in 2 starts in Vermont in 2010, but he’s a better pedigree than the others.  2011 outlook: will be in the low-A rotation.

For 2011, there are two big names from the 2010 draft A.J. Cole and Robbie Ray that probably start in the GCL.  Both are high-ceiling high school arms that the Nats paid good money to buy out of college commitments and both should be interesting watches.  Will they end up like McGeary, Smoker and Willems as high school flame-outs?  The Nats don’t have a single example of a high school arm panning out since they moved to DC, so the odds are against them (this sounds very Billy Beane-esque, as his Moneyball quotes frequently insulted those GMs that did draft high school arms early).  Suffice it to say, the risks are high with any high schooler and especially with pitchers.

The 2011 draft is supposed to be deep and talented, especially with college arms.  Here’s hoping the Nats fare well and re-stock the lower leagues with arms.