Nationals Arm Race

Detwiler's first start in AAA was masterful. Photo: Cathy T via nationalsdailynews.com

Because of the importance of developing starting pitching in the modern baseball game, I’ve always tried to focus on the minor league rotations, looking for the next John Lannan (meaning, a lower round draft pick never expected to become a regular MLB starter) to rise through and force his way into the discussion for 2011 and beyond.  With 4 full-season teams all starting at the same time (and 2 more short-season teams starting up mid-June), i’ll try to do a quick review of the progress, start by start, of our minor league affiliates.  I will focus mostly on Starters but mention relievers of note.

For this analysis I depend heavily on the excellent reviews at NationalsProspects.com, as well as a series of level-by-level links that you can find at my personal “cheat sheet” of websites (scroll to the bottom for the affiliate-specific links for rosters, stats, schedules, and local paper links).  If it were not for “Sue Dinem” and April Whitzman at that site carrying on the flame for Brian Oliver and natsfarmauthority.com, it would be far more difficult to follow the minor leagues for all of us.  Thank you, again, for all that you do.

Here are the daily links from NationalsProspects, for reference below:

• Thursday 4/7 game reviews (opening day for most minor league affiliates)
• Friday 4/8 game reviews
• Saturday 4/9 game reviews
• Sunday 4/10 game reviews
• Monday 4/11 game reviews

Good

• Brad Meyers picks up right where he left off last season: 5IP 4H 0R 0BB 9K in his opening day start.  The staff had 15 k’s on the day against a very strong Bowie team (11 of the Orioles’ top 30 prospects are at Bowie).
• Cameron Selik‘s professional starting debut went very well in Hagerstown: 5IP 4H 0R 0BB 4K.  Not as overpowering as Meyers but 5 shutout innings with no walks is a good sign.
• Ross Detwiler‘s AAA debut was quite dominant; 6IP 4H 1ER 1BB 8K.  Remember, he’s not in AAA because he didn’t pitch his way off the major league roster.  I still believe he’s the first to be called up when needed.
• Lefty Matt Grace pitched well in his debut in Hagerstown: 6IP 4H 0R 0BB 4K.  I like the sleeper capabilities of Grace, an 8th round pick in 2010 out of UCLA.
• Garrett Mock‘s Nationals career continues on; he went 5 2/3s, 3 hits, 3bbs 1 run (on a homer) and 6 Ks in a ND against the Philadelphia AAA team from Lehigh Valley.
• Chris McKenzie‘s initial start was very good: 5IP 1H 1R 1ER 3BB 3K.  He’s young too; he doesn’t turn 22 til after the season.  A far cry from his numbers up in Vermont last season.
• Tom Milone’s 4/10 start was clean and efficient: 7.0IP 5H 0ER 0BB 4K.  You can’t quibble with 7 shutout innings and no walks in AAA.  All he’s done the last two seasons is produce, level by level.
• Craig Stammen‘s return to the rotation (after seemingly being considered for the MLB club as a middle reliever during spring training) went well: 5IP 3H 1ER 1BB 3K.  He’s in a tough spot; his FIP/xFIP numbers last year indicated he was pitching around MLB average for all starters (his numbers were 3.95/3.97, MLB median for qualified starters in 2010 was 3.85/4.09).  But his “regular” numbers were bad; era of 5.06 and whip of 1.46.  In some ways he’s kinda like JD Martin; he doesn’t really dazzle you with his stuff, but he gets it done.
• Marcos Frias took a loss in his opening start for Potomac but pitched well; 6IP 4H 1R 1ER 1BB 2K.  Lets hope his 2nd year in high-A goes better than his first (a 5.69 era in 2010).

Bad

• Yunesky Maya‘s opening day start was horrible.  4.2IP 8H 5ER 2BB 2K 1HR.  I’m a big Maya fan and want to see him succeed, but lines like this will make his signing seem like a mistake.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• Ryan Tatusko‘s first start was cut short after just 4 innings (not sure why; he was only at 73 pitches).  4 hits, 4 walks, 5 Ks and 2 earned runs for a mediocre start.  Harrisburg’s offense couldn’t score any runs on the day so he wasn’t getting the Win regardless.
• Denny Rosenbaum‘s loss on 4/9 wasn’t that bad really; 5IP 2H 3R 2ER 3BB 4K.  Sue Dinem reported that two walks and an error led to a bases-clearing double.  Rosenbaum struck out 4 of the first 7 batters he faced, then retired the last 8 hitters after the double.  So I like the capability of dominance.
• Luis Atilano‘s line in his AA start (5.0IP 4H 2ER 2BB 2K) may seem ok, but I’d expect more from a guy who was pitching in the majors last year.  He is coming back from elbow surgery, so perhaps this is just rust.  Either way, i’m slightly surprised at this point to see him in any of our minor league rotations, given his removal from the 40-man and thus his lowered prospect status.
• Trevor Holder had a so-so start in high-A; 6IP 6H 3R 3ER 2BB 3K.  Potomac blogger Sue Dinem notes that (paraphrasing) Holder doesn’t have blow-it-by-you stuff and has to keep his pitches down to succeed (something he didn’t do much of yesterday).  I agree with commenters on the above link; Holder was an overdraft to begin with and was just OK last year in Potomac.  He may be bound for the bullpen.
• Bobby Hansen‘s first Hagerstown start was decent: 5IP 7H 2R 2ER BB 5K.  Too many baserunners but I like the K/inning rate.  He’s a youngster (doesn’t turn 22 til after the season) and a lefty, so I won’t be too critical.

Other notes/thoughts

• The Hagerstown Rotation has been fun to predict and now see unfold for those of us who track these things.  My offseason prediction was Solis, Clegg, Demny, Jenkins, and Grace.  Then when the roster was announced (and as it turned out Clegg/Demny were in high-A and Solis on the DL) I predicted Grace, Hansen, Jenkins, Jordan and McKenzie.  One turn through the rotation now seems to be Selik, Grace, McKenzie, Hansen and Jordan, with Applebee as a spot-starter.  Solis probably is still in the picture; he had a muscle injury and is extended spring training right now.
• JD Martin, whose retainment I have questioned in this forum based on his lack of upside, his age and his here-to-fore demonstrated performance in the majors, seems (at least so far) to be the long-man out of Syracuse’s bullpen and NOT in the rotation.  He pitched 4 innings of relief on 4/8, and while he pitched well (4IP 1H 0R 1BB 3K) I still don’t see him in the majors for us again (he successfully was outrighted to AAA and his 40-man slot may never appear again).
• As a possible consequence of the Martin decision, Craig Stammen is (at least for now) featuring as a AAA starter.  I find this somewhat encouraging for him right now; I think he can still produce as a starter.  But he may get moved to long-man as our AA prospects force promotions.
• Matt Chico seems to be now relegated to a LOOGY role in AAA, which may not be a bad thing for the team.  Slaten has struggled in the role and Chico could make his way back to the majors in a lefty specialist role.  I like this option, since Chico clearly can be stretched out and give the team spot starter/long relief as needed (especially since the team basically can’t use Broderick for anything but mop up duty right now).
• Commenter favorite Christopher Manno indeed seems to be the closer in Hagerstown, getting the save in friday’s game.
• Newly acquired Alex Caldera is off to a rocky start; he got absolutely shelled on 4/11.
• Late spring training acquisition Lee Hyde has been up and down so far for Syracuse.

Summary

All in all, a bunch of really encouraging starts up and down the system during the season’s first week.   Great news.  Only one really “bad” start in the whole system.  A bunch of rain outs over the last couple days prevented us from seeing several starters during the first “turn” through the rotation, but double headers for Potomac and Hagerstown will get everyone started.

Thanks to Masn’s Byron Kerr for the release of the Hagerstown roster on 4/4/11.  While most people will be focused on one Bryce Harper‘s inclusion on this roster, I’m interested (per the title of the blog) in the pitchers.   Here’s the list, cut-n-pasted from Kerr’s article.:

LHP Paul Applebee
RHP Sam Brown
RHP Wilson Eusebio
LHP Matt Grace
RHP Ben Graham
LHP Bobby Hansen
LHP Chad Jenkins
RHP Taylor Jordan
LHP Christopher Manno
RHP Shane McCatty
RHP Christopher McKenzie
RHP Cameron Selik
RHP Matt Swynenberg

Based on these player’s organizational roles and their status from last year, here’s how i’m guessing they play out:

Starters: Applebee, Grace, Hansen, Jenkins, Jordan
bullpen: Eusebio, McCatty, McKenzie, Selik, Brown, Manno, Swynenberg, Graham

Thoughts

• My initial prediction for the low-A rotation was: Solis, Clegg, Demny, Ott/Jenkins, Grace.  Demny and Clegg are in the high-A squad.  I thought Applebee would be in Potomac; now he seems set to repeat low-A and may be first in line to be promoted.  I thought perhaps Hansen and Jordan would be almost “inbetween” levels, having not really done that well in short-A but having a full low-A rotation.
• Swyndenberg could be in the rotation or he could be a spot starter.  He mostly was a starter last year.
• Sam Brown?  Where’d he come from?  He seems to be this guy, formerly of the Texas organization.  Did he get thrown into a trade somewhere?  He seems too young to have been a minor league free agent.
• Sammy Solis is hurt and will be on (presumably) low-A’s DL to start the year.
• Where is Billy Ott?  Ott is listed on the Auburn short-A squad, which makes no sense since it won’t start play til mid June.  He may be in extended spring.
• Hansen, Jenkins and Jordan making the jump from last year’s short-A squad.  Manno jumping straight from the GCL (the only one going to a full-season squad apparently).
• I really don’t know who will be the closer; of the list of guys there only Selik even had a save last year.

Missing from 2010:

• Ott and Hicks: they ended the year in Hagerstown’s rotation and now they’re not on any full season roster.
• Bronson: I thought he’d be in the high-A rotation; now he’s not even on any full season roster?
• Other names not on any full-season squad: Arnold, Vasquez, Weaver, Erb, Garcia, Gibson.  Weaver is a bit surprising; he seemed to be throwing decently well last year.  Perhaps he’s hurt.
• Willems: the former supp-1st rounder who retired mid 2010.
• McGeary: on the mend from tommy john surgery.

I was out of town, and away from computer for the long weekend.  A bad time to be away for my particular blog, which endeavors to talk about the pitching staffs of both the big club and the farm systems.  After announcing AAA and AA rosters earlier, the high-A and low-A rosters were announced on 4/4/11.

Here’s the slate of high-A pitchers, per Byron Kerr’s masn article.

RHP Alex Caldera
LHP Mitchell Clegg
LHP Ryan Demmin
RHP Paul Demny
RHP Marcos Frias
RHP Trevor Holder
RHP Pat Lehman
RHP Carlos Martinez
RHP Kyle Morrison
RHP Adam Olbrychowski
LHP Danny Rosenbaum
LHP Josh Smoker
RHP Rob Wort

Based on these pitcher’s roles in the past, here’s my guess as to roles for this team:

starters: Caldera, Holder, Demny, Rosenbaum, Clegg
bullpen: Frias, Smoker, Wort (closer?), Morrison, Lehman, Demmin (loogy?), CMartinez, Olbrychowski

Thoughts:

• I initially predicted Frias, Rosenbaum, Bronson, Fabian, Applebee, Lehman for this rotation.   Frias probably gets demoted to being a spot starter based on last year’s high ERA in the starter role.  Same with Lehman to a certain extent.  Clegg and Demny must have had great springs; i thought they’d be back in low-A.  Holder I thought would be moved up to AA; he may be first in line to be promoted.   We’ll see where Bronson, Fabian and Applebee end up once they announce the low-A roster.
• Where is Robinson Fabian?  I thought he’d be in the high-A rotation after getting a handful of starts last  year, but he doesn’t appear on any roster right now.
• Carlos Martinez?  He’s 27 and basically has pitched at the single-A level in our system for years.  Is this still a prospect?  Or is his placement on the roster more of a filler/rubber arm mop up guy?
• New faces to the organization: Adam Olbrychowski is our trade bounty for Justin Maxwell.  He is a converted starter who had some AA time last year but starts in high-A.  Alex Caldera was purchased from Kansas City earlier this spring training.  He was a Carolina league all star last year but struggled in AA, so he’s essentially repeating this level.
• I’m guessing Josh Smoker‘s days as a starter are over.

Missing from last year:

• Atwood, Pecina, JEstrada all either retired or were released mid 2010.
• Jaime was released and claimed, Morris was traded.
• Fabian, Dill, Phillibaum, Alaniz, Testa and Beno: no idea where these guys are.

Thanks to peric, via Sue Dienem’s NationalsProspects blog, for the AAA roster announcement today.

Here’s the roster of pitchers.

PITCHERS
Collin Balester
Adam Carr
Matt Chico
Ross Detwiler
Lee Hyde
Cole Kimball
J.D. Martin
Yunesky Maya
Tom Milone
Garrett Mock
Craig Stammen
Josh Wilkie
Based on their known roles in the organization and locations last year, here’s my guess for the pitching roles:

Starters: Detwiler, Maya, Mock, Milone, Chico
bullpen: Kimball (closer), Wilkie, Carr, Martin, Stammen, Hyde, Balester

Observations:

• I think it is pretty clear that Detwiler, Maya, Milone, and Mock are the first four starters.  I’m guessing (unlike Syracuse beat writer Tom Leo, who thinks Martin is the 5th starter) that Chico is the 5th starter for the time being, in that he’s lefty, younger and has more potential than the soft-tossing 28yr old Martin.
• The above point could change if the team decides that Chico’s ceiling is as a LOOGY.  But, Hyde seems to be that loogy role now in AAA.  Especially since 40-man member Severino is not on either the AAA or the AA roster right now.  I think he’s not long for the team and we should see a DFA announcement the next time we need a roster spot.
• I’m somewhat surprised to see Milone up here over Tatusko, if only because of age.  Both were dominant pitchers last year in AA and both merited promotion.  Milone is a 24 yr old lefty who has put up 12-5 seasons in subsequent levels in 09 and 2010.  He is perhaps another dark horse for the 2011 rotation.
• Stammen‘s conversion to the bullpen seems complete.  I hope he can make it as a middle reliever.
• Balester‘s presence is an unfortunate options game; he really deserves to be up with the big club and I hope he keeps his focus while riding the bus in Syracause.

Who is missing?

• Known releases from 2010’s team include Kown, Bergmann, and Bisenius. Kown and Bisenius were minor league free agents last year, and we cut loose Bergmann (who I believe got picked up by either Baltimore or Boston for spring training 2011).
• Where is Severino, Martis and Villone?  Villone may be in Viera to serve as a “player-coach” for a while.  Martis’ absence indicates just how far he’s fallen in the pecking order of this team.  As mentioned above, Severino’s absense means he may be dumped from the 40-man roster after losing out to Slaten in the loogy-battle in spring training.
• More interestingly: where is Oliver Perez?  I would have been certain he would have been in the AAA rotation.  I wonder if he’s sticking around Viera to work on some mechanical issues.
• Where is Tanner Roark, Rafael Martin and Adrian Alaniz?  Now that we have both the AAA and the AA rosters, we’re also missing guys like Spradlin, Dials, Novoa, Zinicola, CJames, JJones, and Leatherman.  Some we know have been released (Spradlin); others were minor league FA signings last year and probably signed elsewhere (CJames, JJones), and some may still appear in the High-A bullpen.

Can’t wait to see Potomac’s roster!

A few hours after the parent club lost their opening day game, the AA roster was announced for the start of the 2011 season.  I think it was kind of odd to announce the AA roster prior to the AAA roster, or to announce it separately than the other full season squads, but it does make for some interesting analysis already.

To borrow from Byron Kerr’s article above, here’s the 12-man pitching roster:

Pitchers:

RHP Erik Arnesen
RHP Luis Atilano
RHP Jimmy Barthmaier
RHP Erik Davis
RHP Jeff Mandel
RHP Ryan Mattheus
LHP Pat McCoy
RHP Brad Meyers
RHP Brad Peacock
RHP Hassan Pena
RHP Ryan Tatusko
LHP Cory VanAllen

Based on the roles from last year, plus the organizational status of some of these guys, here’s how I think the roles shake out:

Starters: Meyers, Peacock, Tatusko, EDavis, Arneson
bullpen: Mandel (closer), VanAllen (L), HPena, Mattheus, McCoy (L), Barthmaier, Atilano

First thoughts:

• Arneson gets dumped back to AA after pitching half the year in AAA.  This probably is due to the overflow of starters in AAA we have now, including newly signed reclamation project Oliver Perez.  Not that Arneson was a fantastic prospect for us last year, but i’m sure some people will not be happy that his advancement is being displaced by the Perez experiment.
• Atilano goes from the 40-man and pitching regularly in 2010 to passing through waivers and being assigned to AA in 2011.  This probably indicates that, unless he pitches like the 2nd coming of Tim Lincecum this year, he’s officially designated “organizational guy.”
• Mattheus may be a starter instead of Arneson, frankly.  It will be interesting to see how he does post TJ surgery.
• Tatusko: it is disappointing he’s not with the AAA squad because he definitely earned the promotion.
• Peacock and new acquisition Erik Davis start where I thought they would; no surprises here.  Same to a certain extent with Brad Meyers, who was fantastic last year before going down with injury.  He seems to be the real starter prospect on the AA squad and may feature in the 2011 rotation battle with the big club.

Now, for the surprises.  Where are these guys?

• Milone and Holder; I guess they start the year in high-A again
• Roark: where is he?  My guess would be the AAA bullpen since there’s no way he should be dumped back to high-A.
• Alaniz: not that he was a great prospect himself, but he is far too old to be starting in high-A again.  I’m guessing he’s in the AAA bullpen mix or flat out released.

Can’t wait to see the next round of announcements (which i’m hoping have not already occurred as i write this).

Perez's down and out of NY; can he come back with the Nats? Photo: metzilla.com/baseballlatinamerica.com

Word came down on March 21st that the New York Mets had finally given up on Oliver Perez turning his career around and flat out released him.  He had a great 2007 season, going 15-10 in a full season starting for a nifty 121 era+.  Despite coming back down to earth in 2008, the Mets signed him to a 3yr/$36M contract for 2009-11.  He got hurt in 2009, was grossly ineffective in 2010, and now the Mets have decided to eat his entire $12m salary just to be rid of him in 2011.  He was reportedly only throwing in the mid 80s and the Mets were looking at him as a Loogy, not a starter or even a long reliever.

Two days later, Nats fans hear that he’s signed a minor league deal with Washington.  Beat reporters Goessling and Zuckerman nicely summed up similar thoughts to me with respect to this move and what it may mean for the AAA rotation.  But here’s some questions and answers about the move.

Q: Why didn’t the Mets try to trade him? The answer is probably along the lines of, who would want to assume $12M of salary?  Perhaps if the deal was Perez plus $11M for a prospect.  But Perez has looked so bad, his velocity so far below where it used to be, that the Mets probably figured no team would trade anything of value for him.

Q: Why didn’t the Mets just assign him to AAA to keep him? Perez has enough MLB service that he could refuse the assignment and become a free agent, essentially putting him in the exact same spot he is now by virtue of his unconditional release.

Q: Why would the Nats possibly want him? This is a very low risk, low cost move.  Even if he makes the majors we’re not paying anything more than the MLB minimum salary for him (somewhere in the $450k range).  He has already agreed to go to AAA, where he could NOT go for New York.  He can go to AAA, work on his mechanics in a low-stress, low-visibility environment and try to regain what once made him a great prospect.

Q: Is the displacement of other AAA pitchers worth the risk?  Assuming that Perez is treated like a starter, we’re probably now looking at this for the AAA rotation:

• Locks: Maya and Detwiler.  These guys are options 1A and 1B for rising to the majors, and if it were not for option statuses or contracts of the 5 guys who ARE starting in the bigs at least Detwiler may have been up there.
• 40-man guys being given shots: Mock.  For unknown reasons Mock continues to be viewed as part of the future for this team.  But if he’s still being considered a starter, he will be in the AAA rotation.  This list also possibly includes Stammen if the team values him more as a starter than a long-reliever.  We’ll see.  They seem to have him converted to a reliever at this point.
• Rising AA guys/prospects: Arneson, Tatusko, Milone: Arneson was in AAA last year but is not on the 40-man and has lived through two rule5 drafts.  He didn’t pitch badly in 2010 but not flashy enough to warrant a look at the MLB level.  Tatusko put up great AA numbers and deserves a shot in AAA.  Milone (and to a lesser extent perhaps even Meyers or Roark) also pitched well enough in AA to be thinking about a move to AAA.
• Non 40-man Vets hanging on: Chico, Martin, Martis, Atilano.   And now add Perez to this list.

So what happens?  I think your AAA rotation will be Maya, Detwiler, Mock, Perez and Tatusko.  Arneson gets bumped to long relief, as does Stammen, Chico, and Martis.  Martin and Atilano may be out of a job.  Milone, Meyers and Roark start in AA with a mindset of rising quickly to replace a promoted starter, or to replace Perez if we give up on him.

Is signing Perez worth delaying the AAA promotion of Milone?  Probably not.  But I agree with putting Perez into the rotation at the expense of any one of Chico, Martin, Martis or Atilano.  I think these latter four guys basically need to be released to make room for the next wave of guys.  If all four passed through waivers and came back to Washington, then there seems to be little chance they will be making it as professionals much longer.

Conclusions: I don’t HATE this move for the Nats.  It is low cost and low risk.  Lets just hope it does not retard the growth of our slew of good-looking AA pitchers.

Marquis has looked arguably the best of any starter this spring. Photo: AP/silive.com

After the 2nd week of games and the official halfway point of Spring Training, here’s some quick comments on how some various pitchers have looked in the second week of Spring Training Games.  I’ve been keeping running commentary all week as each game happens.  The link to my week one’s thoughts/observations is here, posted on 3/6.

Also, here’s perma- links to the NatsJournal blog‘s running game comments as well as box scores (when I could find them).

• 3/6: vs Braves, box score
• 3/7: vs Astros, box score
• 3/8: at the Mets, box score
• 3/9: at the Marlins, box score
• 3/10: split squad vs the Mets (box score), and at Astros (box score)
• 3/11: vs Astros (box score)
• 3/12: vs Yankees (box score)

The Good

• Jason Marquis: 4 ip, 2 hits and a walk against Atlanta on 3/9 to continue his scoreless inning streak further into spring training.  Lots of ground balls, meaning he has his sinker back.
• Adam Carr: 6 up and 6 down on 3/8.  This didn’t stop him from being cut from the major league squad, but a bright future awaits this fellow.
• Brian Broderick: continues to pitch well, but his Rule5 status complicates his ability to make this team (see my whole missive on Gorzelanny and his job-by-option-status post here).
• Cole Kimball: big time right handed power pitcher showing his worth by continuing to punch guys out with regularity.  Could be first in line to replace a bullpen member who goes down with injury or non-performance.
• Ross Detwiler: Struck out 5 in 3 innings against a strong Braves lineup on 3/6.  Stretched out to 4 innings on 3/11 and added a few more K’s (along with a couple runs) but reportedly looked decent.  I agree with a couple other bloggers on this point; we talk about how Detwiler is competing for the 5th spot, but is it really Lannan that is in trouble?  (see further down for Lannan comments).
• Todd Coffey: Struck out the side on 3/9, had 2 more K’s in a 1-2-3 inning on 3/7.  Looks like he may be a decent replacement for Batista/Peralta from last year’s bullpen.
• Chad Gaudin: looked good against a very weak Mets team 3/10, pitching 5 shutout innings scattering a few hits and walks  (final numbers: 5ip, 6K, allows 4 hits with a walk. 78 pitches 52 strikes, thanks to Craig Heist).  Despite this he has no chance at the MLB rotation.  I presume he’ll be in the AAA rotation to start the season and seems to be putting himself above other AAA starters such as Chico and Martis in the pecking order.

The Bad

• Atahualpa Severino: bombed on 3/8, he’s looking like he’s gonna be 2nd best in the Loogy race to Slaten.  He’s already been optioned to AAA and may be vulnerable to being removed from the 40-man roster.  That being said…
• Doug Slaten got rocked himself on 3/9.  He’ll be given some room since he was so successful last year, but we need one of these two guys to own that Loogy role.  We don’t want to waste Burnett on man-to-man matchups.  In other news, the Nats signed Ron Villone to a minor league deal this week, which i’m predicting is partly (as Kilgore says) because they like him and part Loogy insurance.
• Garrett Mock: didn’ t help his cause by giving up a bomb against the Astros.  He’s now given up 4 hits and 5 walks in 2ip.  He’s looking like AAA bullpen fodder and possibly not long for the 40-man.  I don’t care how good his “stuff” is; if he can’t compete against fringy roster guys in the middle innings of a spring training game, then he cannot be counted on in real games come April.  Update: cut from the major league squad and will get into the AAA rotation.
• John Lannan:  Did not look good in his 3/12 start; too many walks and too many hard hit balls.  For the spring he’s sporting nearly a 9.00 ERA.  With Detwiler looking so strong, is Lannan in peril of starting the season in the minors?

The Iffy or Possibly Concerning.

• Jordan Zimmerman‘s 3/8 start “looked” good but those on hand used words like “shaky” and “hit hard.”  His fastball was 92-94 though.  For Zimmermann, the velocity is the key.  We know he has good stuff; we just need to know his fastball is recovered from TJ surgery.
• Yunesky Maya‘s 3/7 start was shaky at best.  5  hits and a walk in 2 2/3s innings versus a weaker Astro’s lineup.  He threw again on 3/12, gave up an unearned run and seemed to struggle with his fastball locations (the unearned run was on a 3-base error that Cano smoked but Bernadina dropped).  He pitched 4 complete, gave up 2 hits, walked 3 and struck out 3 (some with his loopy 12-6 curve ball).
• Drew Storen got lit up again on 3/7 but we had word that the coaches told him to spot his fastball.  Well, that may explain why.  Hey McCatty; tell us when he’s really trying out there so we know what is going on.  He recovered for a decent outing on 3/10, punctuated with 3 straight Ks against AAA competition.
• Tom Gorzelanny: my post questioning his acquisition garnered quite a spirited response.  The comments i’m about to make probably will too.  His first outing in the spring did not exactly vindicate his nearly-guaranteed active roster spot.  His line: 2.1 IP, 3 R, 2 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 1 K against a weakened Astros split squad.   He only managed 23 strikes in 47 pitches.  Nobody seems to have mph readings but he was clocked only in the upper 80s earlier this week.  For him to stick and be successful we need to see a return to 92-93.
• Livan Hernandez: his 3/11 start did not garner confidence, apparently getting hit all around the park.  Bad defense behind him (and some generous scoring) made his line (3ip, 7hits, 1bb, 1k, 3ER) look worse than it was.  We know that Livan will put up a stinker every once in a while; just can’t make it a habit.

Unlike in years past, the Nats rookie league in 2010 existed in large part to provide rehab starts for guys coming back from injury.  By my count, 14 of the 56 starts in GCL last year were either rehab starts or “extended spring training” starts for guys that were headed for upper levels.  This may have been due to the lack of young starting pitcher prospects available to us, since the starts we did get from prospects in the GCL (Hanks, Meza, KLopez, King) were as unimpressive as the starts we got out of Vermont.

That being said, here’s how the GCL staff ended 2010 (GCL usually goes with a 6-man rotation)

Rotation: Hanks 20, Meza 20, KLopez 20, King 20, Encarnacion 21
(rotation order: King, Meza, Hanks, Encarnacion, KLopez
bullpen: MRivera, Baez, Gallo, MRivera, Dupuis, Santiago, Navarro, Gerler, Serino, Meister, Mower, Grace
spot starts: Baez 18, Grace 21
promotions: Hansen, Barthmaier, CMartinez, OHernandez, Ott
up-and-back:
demotions:
dl: Garrett, Karns, Manno
cut/retired:

Livan’s 1/2 brother Orlando “El Duque” Hernandez spent some time baffling 19 year olds in the GCL before moving on up the system.  He was signed (in all likelihood) to grease the skids for signing his compatriot Yunesky Maya, and quit the AA team in a huff when he didn’t get a Sept 1 callup.  Personally I would have called him up to see what he had; he’s an ageless mechanic who very well may have entertained the bullpen for a few weeks and a couple dozen meaningless games.

Here’s the rest of the guys who got starts in the GCL:

• Tyler Hanks: 20yr old 17th round juco pick, a former teammate of Bryce Harpers.  Decent numbers (4-1, 3.59 era) in a mixture of relief and starting appearances.  2011 Outlook: He’ll probably get a shot at the short-A rotation.
• Christian Meza 20yr old 25th round juco signing in 2010 who put up some of the best numbers of our GCL rotation.  1.52 era and 23 Ks in 23 2/3 innings to earn a quick callup to short-A.  He’s a slighter framed lefty who could be a diamond in the rough.  2011 outlook: he seems destined for the bullpen, so I’ll guess he moves to Hagerstown’s bullpen.
• Kelvin Lopez 20yr old international signing who lead the team in IP for 2010.  Not very impressive numbers though; 4.44 era, 26/12 k/bb in 42 innings.  2011 outlook: based on his age I’d guess he features in the short-A rotation competition.
• Brandon King 20yr old 27th round high schooler in 2009 who had just awful numbers in the GCL in 2010.  10.32 era but only 11 innings pitched.  I cannot remember if he was injured at some point between now and his draft date but seem to remember that he was.  2011 outlook: We gave him a rather large bonus ($250k, or about 4th round money) so we’ll probably continue to test him out.  I can see him back in GCL for 2011.
• Pedro Encarnacion 21yr old DSL grad who had mediocre numbers with little power (he had nearly as many Ks as BBs).  2011 outlook: may be near the end of his Nats career.  Perhaps converted to a bullpen guy in short- or low-A.
• Gregory Baez 18yr old lefty DSL graduate.  He’s tall, skinny and throws hard (40 ks in 38 innings).  2011 Outlook: stays in extended spring for a bit and then gives short-A rotation a try.
• Matthew Grace 21yr old lefty starter out of UCLA, an 8th round draft pick in 2010.  Not the greatest numbers in the GCL or in 2 starts in Vermont in 2010, but he’s a better pedigree than the others.  2011 outlook: will be in the low-A rotation.

For 2011, there are two big names from the 2010 draft A.J. Cole and Robbie Ray that probably start in the GCL.  Both are high-ceiling high school arms that the Nats paid good money to buy out of college commitments and both should be interesting watches.  Will they end up like McGeary, Smoker and Willems as high school flame-outs?  The Nats don’t have a single example of a high school arm panning out since they moved to DC, so the odds are against them (this sounds very Billy Beane-esque, as his Moneyball quotes frequently insulted those GMs that did draft high school arms early).  Suffice it to say, the risks are high with any high schooler and especially with pitchers.

The 2011 draft is supposed to be deep and talented, especially with college arms.  Here’s hoping the Nats fare well and re-stock the lower leagues with arms.

The Nationals are moving on to a new short-A facility for 2011 (and by all accounts the move is welcomed, as Vermont’s stadium was reportedly among the oldest in the country still in use).  So for 2011 we’ll be referring to “Auburn” instead of “Vermont.”

Here’s how the Vermont pitching staff ended up the 2010 season:

Rotation: Jenkins 22, Hansen 21, Swynenberg 21, Jordan 21, McKenzie 21/Bates 22
(rotation order: Jenkins, Jordan, Swynenberg, Hansen, McKenzie/Bates)
bullpen: Bates, Barrett, Cahill, Crane, Eusebio, Gibson, NHerrera, Holland, Selik, Zellers, Demmin
spot starts: Bates 22, McKenzie 21
promotions: Graham, Hicks, McCatty, Ott
up-and-back:
demotions:
dl: Garrett
cut/retired:

Short A teams generally exist to be the first professional destination of newly drafted college juniors and seniors.  The draft is in the beginning of June, and the short-A season usually starts around the 19th of the month, giving teams a couple weeks to draft, sign, and logistically ship its college players out.  In fact, no less than 10 of the pitchers we drafted in 2010 were assigned to the Vermont squad.

Unfortunately, very few of these pitchers really impressed in 2010.  Of the 13 guys who had at least one start in short-A, only four of them had an ERA under 4.  Hicks (who had one start and moved up to low-A), Mattheus (in a rehab stint), Demmin (who got a spot start but was sparkling in a relief mode), and Ott (who pitched for 3 levels for the team in 2010 after signing as an undrafted free agent).  Lets talk about what may happen to the rest of these guys:

• Chad Jenkins 22yr old lefty 2009 17th round pick out of Juco, posted a 4.67 era but was wild, walking 34 guys in 54 innings.  His lefty status saves him.  2011 Outlook: May make the low-A rotation but will be on a short leash.
• Bobby Hansen 21yr old lefty 2008 18th round pick out of high school, now entering his 3rd pro year.  You don’t normally see high schoolers sign when drafted that late.  He’s a big guy (6’5″ 220) and he projects well, but has yet to really throw impressive numbers in GCL or short-A.  2011 Outlook: probably starts in short-A again after an extended spring.  Could get a look in the low-A rotation.
• Matt Swynenberg 21yr old righty 2009 28th round juco pick who isn’t really impressing anyone with his ERA or his low K/9 rates.  2011 outlook: seems bound for the Hagerstown bullpen.
• Taylor Jordan 21yr old 9th round pick in 2009 out of juco.  Similar numbers and outlook to Swynenberg.  Slightly more valuable to the team (9th round versus 28th).  2011 Outlook: may get one more shot to stick in the short-A rotation.  Otherwise bound for the bullpen.
• Christopher McKenzie 21yr old 13th round 2010 pick out of juco; his 2010 numbers were awful.  He posted nearly a 2.00 whip and nearly a 9.00 era.  2011 outlook: hard to see him anywhere but a bullpen somewhere.  Will need to show his value or he’ll get released.
• Colin Bates 22yr old righty 2010 23rd round pick out of UNC.  5.40 era but showed great swing and miss and good control (45/8 k/bb in 48 innings).  2011 Outlook: Because of his K rate I could see him getting another look in 2011 as a starter somewhere in the system.  Perhaps Hagerstown, perhaps again in Short-A depending on who we draft.

For the most part its rather difficult to predict who is going to be in the 2011 Short-A rotation until we reach the draft; it will be part 2011 draftees and part high school/Juco guys moving up from the GCL.  As we will see in the last installment, the GCL rotation wasn’t much better than Vermonts in 2010, but there will be a couple names that move up.

Here’s a look at Hagerstown’s pitching staff in 2010.

End of Season Rotation: Demny 21, Hicks 20, Bronson 23, Applebee 22, Ott 22
(rotation order: Demny, Hicks, Applebee, Ott, Bronson)
bullpen: Wort, Arnold, Vasquez, Weaver, Morrison, Erb, Graham, Garcia, McCatty
spot starts: Smoker 22 (demoted for Ott)
promotions: Holder, Rosenbaum,
up-and-back:
demotions: Gibson
dl: McGeary (TJ surgery, out for a while), Clegg
cut/retired: Willems

Hagerstown’s 2010 staff held three of our system’s biggest disappointments; Colton Willems, Jack McGeary and Josh Smoker.

One of the stories of the season was the abrupt retirement of Colton Willems, the latest reminder of the absolute train wreck our 2006 draft was (slight tangent; only 3 players from that draft have even made it onto our 40-man roster; Marrero, Carr and Kimball, and none of these are really expected to compete for 2011 mlb spots).  Willems was a supplemental #1 pick whose stuff as a starter seemed to plateau in the low-A league.  He wasn’t able to get guys out in high-A in 2009, and was converting to be a reliever for the 2010 season when he retired.  His 2010 numbers were bad, but he probably should have given it more time.

Josh Smoker’s status as a flame out prospect is nearly as bad as Willems.  He was a 2007 supplemental #1 pick has yet to show he can get guys out above the rookie league, and while he was slowed by an arm injury in 2009 his performance in 2010 (3-10 with a 6.50 era in low-A) may have buried his career in baseball.  2011 Outlook: fully converted to a reliever in Hagerstown, where he has to show he can get guys out or he will be released.

Another story of the season for the Nats franchise in general was the arm injury suffered by Jack McGeary.  McGeary was having a decent start in low-A before blowing out his elbow and getting Tommy John surgery.  McGeary was considered a drafting coup of the 2007 draft, signing for 1.8M as a 6th rounder with 1st round talent.  But through parts of four pro seasons he’s never really shown the talent to match his pedigree and even post TJ surgery I doubt he will ever pan out.  I can see the Nats hanging on to him until he recovers and giving him another shot based on prior investment and his age, but his days seem numbered.

Hagerstown’s two elder statesmen (Holder and Rosenbaum) both moved up to high-A mid season, leaving a relatively young staff.  Lets talk about each guy:

• Mitchell Clegg: Despite not being in the rotation at the end, Clegg was clearly the best of what was left of Hagerstown’s mediocre rotation.  He was 9-3, 3.48 era, 1.26 whip before a premature end to his season.  2011 Outlook: I think he starts in Hagerstown again, with the idea of a quick jump up to high-A if the likes of Bronson or Applebee falters.
• Paul Demny: Pitched a full season in Low-A, 27 starts, compiling mediocre numbers (6-10, 4.23 era, 1.35 whip, 106/47 k/bb in 129 ip).  He improved upon his 2009 season in Hagerstown though, but probably not enough to merit a promotion to high-A.  2011 Outlook: he may have peaked in terms of talent, but he should start in Hagerstown once again.  If he pitches well, a quick trip to Potomac.  If not, he may find himself moved to mop up duty for the rest of his days.
• Graham Hicks: put up mediocre numbers as a 20-yr old in low-A for the first time (1-6, 5.27 era) but he’s a lefty with a live arm (58 ks in 66 ip).  2011 outlook: we traded Hicks along with Morris and Burgess for Gorzelanny this off season.  I suspect he’ll start in Chicago’s low-A franchise.
• Evan Bronson: he put up pretty weak numbers (4-2, 5.40 era and less than 4.5 K’s/9) after faring better in high-A.  I don’t quite understand his demotion based on his performance in high-A, and perhaps that factored into his bad low-A performance.  He was pretty dominant as a bullpen guy in short-A in 2009; perhaps he returns to that role eventually.  2011 outlook: he’s a bit old for the level and seemed to be able to handle high-A last year, so I can see him starting there in 2011.
• Paul Applebee: 6-6, 4.29 era in a mix of starting and relief appearances in 2010.  He clearly is a starter though, and a lefty to boot, so I can see him continuing to get looks.  2011 outlook: I’m predicting he takes the 5th slot in Potomac, unless someone like Lehman or Holder gets pushed down to take that spot.  If so I can see him being a long man out of the bullpen or a spot starter.

A couple other guys had spot starts in 2010: Billy Ott had two mediocre starts but may be given a rotation spot in 2011.  Sammy Solis pitched 4 shutout innings before going off to the Arizona Fall season; he almost certainly starts in Low-A with the idea of moving up quickly and finishing the year in AA.

Hopefully Hagerstown sees better pitching in 2011 than it did in 2010.  At least you’ll get to see Bryce Harper blast a few balls to right-center before he starts his inexorable march towards the majors.