Thanks to Masn’s Byron Kerr for the release of the Hagerstown roster on 4/4/11. While most people will be focused on one Bryce Harper‘s inclusion on this roster, I’m interested (per the title of the blog) in the pitchers. Here’s the list, cut-n-pasted from Kerr’s article.:
LHP Paul Applebee
RHP Sam Brown
RHP Wilson Eusebio
LHP Matt Grace
RHP Ben Graham
LHP Bobby Hansen
LHP Chad Jenkins
RHP Taylor Jordan
LHP Christopher Manno
RHP Shane McCatty
RHP Christopher McKenzie
RHP Cameron Selik
RHP Matt Swynenberg
Based on these player’s organizational roles and their status from last year, here’s how i’m guessing they play out:
Starters: Applebee, Grace, Hansen, Jenkins, Jordan
bullpen: Eusebio, McCatty, McKenzie, Selik, Brown, Manno, Swynenberg, Graham
Thoughts
- My initial prediction for the low-A rotation was: Solis, Clegg, Demny, Ott/Jenkins, Grace. Demny and Clegg are in the high-A squad. I thought Applebee would be in Potomac; now he seems set to repeat low-A and may be first in line to be promoted. I thought perhaps Hansen and Jordan would be almost “inbetween” levels, having not really done that well in short-A but having a full low-A rotation.
- Swyndenberg could be in the rotation or he could be a spot starter. He mostly was a starter last year.
- Sam Brown? Where’d he come from? He seems to be this guy, formerly of the Texas organization. Did he get thrown into a trade somewhere? He seems too young to have been a minor league free agent.
- Sammy Solis is hurt and will be on (presumably) low-A’s DL to start the year.
- Where is Billy Ott? Ott is listed on the Auburn short-A squad, which makes no sense since it won’t start play til mid June. He may be in extended spring.
- Hansen, Jenkins and Jordan making the jump from last year’s short-A squad. Manno jumping straight from the GCL (the only one going to a full-season squad apparently).
- I really don’t know who will be the closer; of the list of guys there only Selik even had a save last year.
Missing from 2010:
- Ott and Hicks: they ended the year in Hagerstown’s rotation and now they’re not on any full season roster.
- Bronson: I thought he’d be in the high-A rotation; now he’s not even on any full season roster?
- Other names not on any full-season squad: Arnold, Vasquez, Weaver, Erb, Garcia, Gibson. Weaver is a bit surprising; he seemed to be throwing decently well last year. Perhaps he’s hurt.
- Willems: the former supp-1st rounder who retired mid 2010.
- McGeary: on the mend from tommy john surgery.
Hicks was moved in the Gorzelanny trade. Ott, Vasquez, and Erb were recently released.
Gibson went to KC through free agency. Garcia was a FA also, but I don’t see that he’s landed anywhere.
SpringfieldFan
5 Apr 11 at 2:43 pm
And thanks for the info on McGeary. I didn’t know where to put him.
SpringfieldFan
5 Apr 11 at 2:55 pm
Duh. I should have remembered that Hicks got traded. I’m trying to bang these out and catch up on 5-days of baseball news and blogs after being away all weekend.
Slightly surprising that Ott got released. I didn’t think he was *that* bad last year.
Todd Boss
5 Apr 11 at 3:11 pm
I like our low-A and high-A pitching staffs. I’ll like Hagerstown more when Solis shows up. I can’t wait to see what Grace can do either. The low-A team seems filled with college-age guys who may stand out against younger hitters.
Todd Boss
5 Apr 11 at 3:19 pm
Todd, your expertise will be most needed in regards to Hagerstown.
They have a pretty dynamic offense; even without Harper.
The big thing for this pitching staff will be whether they pitch like they did in the 1st half or the 2nd half at Vermont.
Hopefuly, the Nats F.O. wil have figured what went so horribly wrong in the 2nd half and used the time in the FIL & Spring training to show them the way.
Mark L
5 Apr 11 at 4:15 pm
So here’s my two-cents worth on the pitching staff alignments to open the season…
Syracuse –
Starting rotation: Maya(R), Detwiler (L), JD Martin(R), Mock(R), Milone(L).
Spot starters / Long relievers: Chico(L), Stammen(R).
Bullpen: Wilkie(R), Hyde(L), Balester(R), Kimball(R), Carr(R).
Harrisburg –
Starting rotation: Arnesen(R), Peacock(R), Tatusko(R), Davis(R), Myers(R).
Spot starter / Long reliever: Atilano(R).
Bullpen: Barthmeier(R), Mandel(R), Mattheus(R), VanAllen(L), McCoy(L), Pena(R).
Potomac –
Starting rotation: Rosenbaum(L), Holder(R), Caldera(R), Clegg(L), Demny(R).
Spot starter / Long reliever: Frias(R).
Bullpen: Morrison(R), Olbychowski(R), Demmin(L), Lehman(R), Martinez(R), Smoker(L), Wort(R).
Hagerstown – Jordan(R), Jenkins(L), Swynenberg(R), Grace(L), McCatty(R).
Spot starter / Long Relievers: Hansen(L), McKenzie(R).
Bullpen: Applebee(L), Brown(R), Eusebio(R), Manno(L), Graham(R), Selik(R).
With the number of pitchers either in extended spring training (Ramirez, Rodriguez, Severino, & Wang from the 40-man, and R.Martin, O.Perez, Solis, Zinicola from Milb rosters) or unaccounted for (Alaniz, Arnold, Bronson, H.Garcia, Martis, Roark, Testa, & Weaver), there will likely be a number of ‘ripple’ or cascading moves to be made early in the season.
BinM
5 Apr 11 at 6:30 pm
Ah, c’mon BinM, that was worth at least a $1
Mark L
6 Apr 11 at 8:04 am
I’m glad i’m not the only one doing this analysis 🙂 Thoughts:
AAA: if it were me i’d switch Chico and Martin, but I understand Martin’s probably going to go 12-4 in AAA. I’ve got Kimball as the closer.
AA: no lefty starters. I wonder how long before they promote a lefty. I’ve got Mandel as the closer.
high-A: I can see Lehman getting spot starts too. I’ve put in Wort as the closer for now; could be Smoker too.
low-A: here’s the biggest place where we just don’t know what will happen. There’s 7 or 8 guys here who were starters last year and clearly someone is moving to the bullpen. Should be interesting to see how it shakes out.
Todd Boss
6 Apr 11 at 11:27 am
I hear Manno will be closing some. He did quite a bit of that in spring training…plus, he is infamous for high strikeout numbers. I heard he did very well in spring training–there was even talk of him going to Potomac at some pt this season. I’m actually surprised you haven’t focused more on this kid. A lot of the other blogs have began paying more attention to him.
Jay R
6 Apr 11 at 11:13 pm
Honestly I hadn’t really even heard of Manno until going to look at his stat lines. He has several things going against him; college senior with no signing bonus, 26th round pick out of a pretty mediocre baseball school (Duke), then he put up great k/9 numbers (29 in 18 innings) but in the rookie league not the short-A league (so he’s going against younger guys). Then we goes on the DL after only 18 innings?
When it comes to the short-season teams (Auburn and GCL) I’m generally looking only at the starters when it comes to prospects who may rise further. Almost all relievers are failed starters … so the later you last as a starter the better (generally). When a former starter immediately becomes a reliever in the low minors … that says “organizational guy” to me.
Lets hope i’m wrong. Big tall lefty with swing and miss stuff? Could be someone to look out for. And there’s no obvious closer candidate (to me anyway) on that Hagerstown roster.
Todd Boss
7 Apr 11 at 9:28 am
Manno was on the DL not because of his skill–but because of another unrelated incident. Additionally, Manno was made for relieving and was never a starter in the organization. He also DID get a signing bonus from what I know… I’m not sure who your sources are. He has a funky delivery and strikes people out –therefore, not really conducive to starting & much better suited for relieving/closing. The only reason he was a starter in college was because he was Duke’s strongest pitcher and they wanted to use him as long as they could. AND DID YOU SEE HIM IN THE CAPE? that kid kicked ass. He played in the championship game and had the lowest ERA in the cape. How have you not heard of him?!
I’m not really sure why they put him in the GCL. He was much more talented than most of the pitchers in Vermont last season.
The Nats are def. giving him the eye from what my sources are telling me. He gained a significant amt. of weight in the off season and has been working very hard. According to another blog, he also has his own fan club called Manno’s Minions–Several people have said they have met him and say he’s a really nice kid.
Jay R
7 Apr 11 at 12:01 pm
As a charter member of ‘Manno’s Minions’, I have to say there are a lot of reasons to root for him.
The Nats drafted him in ’09 but he decided to finish his education at Duke. Although he was lights out in the Cape Cod league in ’09, his 2010 season at Duke was only ok.
As a senior he got a bonus but I’m sure it was for about $1.50. Still, he’s been terrific since his professional debut and between his Brooklyn and Duke status there’s an awful lot of people rooting for him.
Mark L
7 Apr 11 at 1:54 pm
Nah, i hear he got somewhere between $60G-$80G to sign. not bad
Jay R
7 Apr 11 at 2:48 pm
“Source” for the lack of signing bonus is/was Brian Oliver’s draft tracker xls. 26th round college seniors generally don’t get much in the way of bonuses; they have no leverage and are such low picks that they are not generally expected to be much more than organizational guys. I’d be flabbergasted if he got 80k; we drafted Aaron Barret in the 9th round from a bigger time baseball program as a college senior and he got $35k.
When studying minor league pitchers you have to take age and level into account. A 22yr old pitching in the GCL against a bunch of guys who are DSL grads or HS draftees and who are 18-19 SHOULD dominate. A 22yr old pitching in short-A the year he gets drafted is going against far more “level playing field” competition. Now he’s entering his 23yr old year in low-A, putting him on the edge of being “old” for the level (i know Mark L is going to pipe up here but I go by John Sickels’ age-per-level and believe it).
Look, its nothing against the guy, I’m just saying that generally speaking such a low round pick from a bad baseball college and who plays in GCL instead of short-A is “probably” going to wash out quickly. I hope he turns into a fantastic low-round find.
Todd Boss
7 Apr 11 at 3:12 pm
He’s actually 22. According to the roster, his bday isn’t til Nov…making him young for his school grade. Technically–based on his age, Manno should be a year behind what he was in school. He’s one of the younger one’s on the suns.
Jay R
7 Apr 11 at 3:27 pm
and like i said, I hear his spring training performance was looking good. He was avging 2+ strikeouts per inning and they just weren’t hitting him. I also heard he was def. being considered for potomac and there’s a good chance that he will move up if he performs as he did in spring training.
Jay R
7 Apr 11 at 3:29 pm
manno closed. what did i tell ya?
Jay R
9 Apr 11 at 12:28 pm
I know! I put a shout out into my little minor league roundup post coming out next week 🙂
Todd Boss
10 Apr 11 at 9:34 am
that’s awesome!!! thanks! 🙂
Jay R
10 Apr 11 at 10:42 am
Nice little performance too. 2Ks out of 3 outs recorded. Can’t beat that. If I could possibly convince my wife to visit Hagerstown i’d love to go up there and catch a game. I actually played in that stadium once; I was on an amateur/semi-pro team while in college (Credit Union baseball, if you know baseball leagues in the DC area). Its MASSIVE. But it was really cool to be there.
Todd Boss
10 Apr 11 at 11:12 am
Haha no way! Yea I’m planning to go to Hagerstown sometime in May probably.
Jay R
11 Apr 11 at 9:30 am