Nationals Arm Race

(slight server crash yesterday took down the site for the day.  I’ll post two a days tmrw and friday to clear the books of the “season in review” posts I have queued up).

Potomac, the high-A affiliate of the Washington Nationals won the 2010 Carolina League for the 2nd time in the past three years, which is a great indication of the quality of our lower-end minor leaguers.  We put together a rather “mature” high-A team though; most scouts believe that high-A squads should be in the 20-22 age range, and 24 year olds are considered “old” for the level.  Which makes sense; a 24yr old in his 2nd or 3rd professional season pitching against high school draftees 3-4 years younger should immediately have the advantage in terms of experience and capabilities.

That being said, lets take a look at the 2010 pitching staff in Potomac:

• 2010 Rotation end-of-season: Lehman 24, Holder 23, Frias 22, Alaniz 24, Barthaimer 26
• (rotation order: Holder, Lehman, Frias, Alaniz, JJones)
• bullpen: CMartinez, Dill, Phillibaum, Alaniz, McCoy, VanAllen (why?), Barthmaier, Testa
• spot starts: Alaniz 24, Barthmaier 26, JJones 28
• promotions: Kimball, Peacock, Alaniz (and back), Leatherman, Dials
• up-and-back:
• demotions: Garcia, Bronson
• dl: Jaime, Fabian, Beno, Rosenbaum 23 (would be #4), Morris 24 (would be #1)
• cut/retired: Atwood, Pecina, JEstrada

Brad Peacock was Potomac’s supposed “ace” and was promoted after 18 starts (I say supposed since his high-A line was 4-9, with a 4.44 era and 1.03 whip).  The starting rotation was rather decimated by injuries by the end of the season, with both AJ Morris and Danny Rosenbaum on the DL.  Bronson was demoted down to Hagerstown after putting up decent-to-mediocre numbers in high-A (4-7, 3.88 era, 1.31 whip).  Lets talk about the rest of the squad:

• Patrick Lehman (5-4, 4.84 era, 1.32 whip, 88/28 k/bb in 87ip).  Lehman enters his third professional season with the Nats after being a 13th round draft pick in 2009 out of GW.  He has clearly exceeded expectations for a pitcher coming out of such an unheralded school and It would be great to see him continue to move up.  2011 Prediction: I had initially thought he was a good candidate to move up to AA (based on his age and performance prior to high-A) but now I’m thinking he”ll start in Potomac again and try to improve on his era and whip numbers.  His K/9 is great though but may be a side effect of being slightly “old” for high-A.
• Trevor Holder (3-3, 4.09 era, 1.39 whip, 52/22 k/bb in 70 ip).  Holder’s selection in the 2009 draft caused howling from draft pundits; he was clearly an overdraft for the third round, was a college senior with little leverage and his draft bonus was less than half of his contemporaries.  And thus far in his pro career, he has done little to change people’s opinions on the matter.  His 2009 pro numbers were awful, and while he succeeded in Hagerstown he was clearly a man among boys.  2011 Prediction: as with Lehman, Holder is too old to “hold” on to a high-A rotation spot but probably does not merit a AA rotation spot.  I can see him being moved to the AA bullpen.  I don’t see him as anything more than an organizational guy at this point.
• Marcos Frias (7-5, 5.69 era, 1.53 whip, 55/39 k/bb in 91 ip).  Frias is one of the few international signings the Nats have that has moved beyond DSL/GCL status lately.  He was pretty good in Hagerstown in 2009 but his success did not translate to the better High-A classification.  He’s still young (22) but is entering his 5th pro season in the system and his time may be running out.  2011 Prediction: High-A rotation but needs to show some progress asap, else he risks getting moved to the bullpen or cut outright once we draft our 2011 crop of arms.
• Adrian Alaniz (8-4, 2.61 era, 1.11 whip, 101/26 k/bb in 107 ip).  Alaniz was an enigma pitcher in the system in 2010.  He had 24 High-A appearances but didn’t move into the starting rotation til injuries took out Morris and Rosembaum.  What’s odd about Alaniz is that he proved he could handle high-A pitching in 2008, going 9-0 with a 2.62 era before getting promoted that season.  His stuff has never really translated to AA though, and he was moved out of the rotation in 2009.  Now he’ll be 26 to begin the season and his future is murky.  He needs to show he can pitch at the AA level.  2011 Prediction: AA bullpen, where he must succeed or his time with the organization will be at an end.
• Jimmy Barthaimer (4-1, 3.62 era, 1.33 whip in 5 spot starts towards the end of the season).  Barthaimer was a minor league waiver claim, having gotten released by Pittsburgh’s Altoona franchise mid season.  He’s got major league time, so it isn’t surprising he would compete well against high-A guys.  2011 outlook: if he’s with the organization, he’ll probably be a AAA bullpen guy.

Other starters of note in Potomac for 2010:

• AJ Morris: a leader of the staff before suffering an injury, he was 5-3, 3.88 era on the year (including a number of relief starts).  Morris was a very promising 4th round draft pick after having a fantastic senior season at Kansas State, but was moved to the bullpen when his stuff didn’t seem to be translating to success as a starter.  2011 Outlook: Morris was traded to Chicago Cubs in the Gorzelanny deal.
• Danny Rosenbaum: another top notch starter for Potomac, going 3-2 with a 2.09 era before going down with injury.  So far Danny has more or less dominated GCL, low-A and high-A.  An injury derailed his 2010 season but so far he’s looking like a steal of a 22nd rounder.  The fact that he’s a lefty is even better.  2011 outlook: Rosenbaum is the opening day starter for Potomac but should quickly earn a promotion up to AA.  He’s a sleeper in the system.
• Juan Jaime: he was set to be the Ace of Potomac before a major arm injury cost him all of 2010.  He was lights out in short-A and low-A in 2009, and was put on our 40-man roster in Nov of 2009 to protect him.  However, the Nats tried to sneak him off the 40-man roster, only to see him claimed by Arizona.  2011 Outlook: good luck to him as he rebuilds his career in the Diamondback’s organization.
• Robinson Fabian: another Dominican prospect who we got in the Joe Biemel trade; he was looking decent in 8 starts before going down with injury.  2011 outlook: he’ll get another shot to show he can perform in High-A, but he’s starting to age out of prospect status (he just turned 25).

We’ll talk about Evan Bronson in the low-A post, even though he got a number of high-A starts.

Most scouts now believe that AA is the premier talent league in the minors.  AAA stores spare middle infielders and older players playing out the string while AA houses the rising talents, the up and comers that may never see the light of AAA.  Our own Jordan Zimmermann advanced straight from AA into the major league rotation.  So the AA rosters are important for the future development of the team.

Here’s what Harrisburg’s pitching staff looked like at the end of the 2010 season (age is as of 12/31/10):

• End of Season Rotation: Peacock 22, Milone 23, Thompson 23, Roark 24, Tatusko 25
• (rotation order: Thompson, Peacock, Milone, Tatusko, Roark, Peacock)
• bullpen: Kimball, Pena, RMartin, Spradlin, Dials
• spot starts:
• promotions: Storen, Strasburg, Chico, Mandel, Garate, Arneson, JJones, Carr, Bisensius
• up-and-back: Thompson, Lannan (demoted from mlb), Leatherman, Kown.
• demotions:
• dl: Meyers (would be #1), Novoa, Zinicola, CJames, JJones, Leatherman
• cut: OHernandez

Here’s the 2011 outlook for the starters in AA:

• Brad Meyers (1-0, 1.47 era, 0.98 whip, 35/7 k/bb in 30.2 innings) started out the season as the Ace of the squad and gave the team 6 strong starts before going down with injury.  He was similarly dominant at the end of 2009 for Harrisburg as well. 2010’s injury was unfortunate for Meyers in terms of career development; at 25 he’s now “old” for Harrisburg and he’s entering his 5th professional season.   I’d really like to see what he can do for this team.  2011 Prediction: starts in AA despite his proven success there in both 2009 and 2010, with an eye to quickly move up and take over for whatever AAA starters does not pan out.  With any luck he’ll earn a Sept 1 call up.
• Tom Milone (12-5, 2.85 era, 1.16 whip, 155/23 k/bb in 158 ip) had a fine season and should push for a move up to AAA.  He had nearly identical numbers in AA in 2010 as he did in Potomac the year before in terms of ERA and W/L record, but suddenly in AA he became a swing-and-miss strikeout guy.  He’s younger than Meyers and a lefty, yet has fantastic K/9 numbers and seems like a great candidate to move up in this organization.  2011 Prediction: a glut of pitchers above him and his young age seems set to start Milone in Harrisburg again, with a look to quickly move him up as with Meyers.  But his performance in AA seems to indicate he’s a rising talent, and his lefty arm doesn’t hurt.
• Aaron Thompson (4-13, 5.80 era, 1.59 whip, 95/53 k/bb in 136ip).  Thompson had an absolutely disastrous season.  He couldn’t strike guys out, he got blasted night in and night out, and it wasn’t a surprise when the Nats, facing a series of required 40-man roster moves, chose him as one of the DFA victims.  2011 Prediction: He was claimed by Pittsburgh off of waivers and is no longer in the organization. Even if he hadn’t been claimed by another team, in all likelihood he was out of the starter picture for the team.
• Tanner Roark (11-6, 3.77 era, 108/42 k/bb in 141 ip for two AA teams).  Roark pitched pretty well once he came over from Texas, but his Midland numbers were just mediocre.  He’s slightly old for the level but is only entering his 4th professional season.  I’d like to see more K/9 numbers out of him but he’s still a solid starter.  2011 Prediction: i’m predicting he moves up to AAA but he’s basically in the same boat as both Meyers and Milone; he’d be repeating a level and he may be ready to move up.  I’m predicting he moves up but will be on a short leash, targeted for replacement by either Meyers or Milone.
• Ryan Tatusko (12-3, 2.63 era, 94/53 in 136 ip for two AA teams).  Tatusko had markedly better numbers than his traded teammate.  But similarly to Roark he does not have lights out stuff.  2011 Prediction: based on his age and experience I think he gets moved up to AAA but will be in the same situation as Roark; he’ll have to perform or get moved to the bullpen.

I like both Meyers and Milone and think they’ve earned promotions.  We’ll have to see what happens in Viera.

This is the first in a series of articles reviewing the 2010 Nationals minor league affiliate pitching staffs.  I’ll post one a day for each of our levels starting with AAA and moving downwards.

AAA baseball rosters are unique among the affiliate teams.  By and large AAA rosters are not filled with a team’s burgeoning drafted talents; instead, AAA rosters are often storage lockers for “spare parts” for the major league roster (backup catchers, utility infielders).  Even more so, the AAA roster (in terms of pitchers) usually contains the last few guys cut from the MLB roster and/or relievers who couldn’t make the grade in the majors.  Certainly Syracuse’s pitching staff fits this bill, and had a ton of player movement (up and down) during the season.  Lets talk about where we landed at the end of the season:

(age is as of 12/31/10)

• AAA Starters by Performance: Chico 27, Arneson 26, Kown 28, Martis 23, Mock 27
• (rotation order: Chico, Martis, Arneson, Mock, Kown)
• bullpen: Bergmann, Wilkie, Severino, Balester, Carr, Bisenius
• spot starts: Mandel (demoted from starter)
• promotions: Olsen, Slaten, Storen, JDMartin, Peralta
• 9/1 callups: Balester, Maya, Bisenius
• up-and-back: Bergmann, Chico (from AA), Stammen (and back), Atilano (and back), Severino, Balester
• demotions: Spradlin, Zinicola, CJames, Kown (and back), MacDougal (and back), JJones, Garate
• dl: English
• cut/released: MacDougal, Villone, ABrown

Starter Review

Shairon Martis was the only rotational guy to spend the entire season in AAA, having lost out on the 5-man battle for the big club in spring training.  Chico came up after a few AA starts and got one spot start in the majors but was never seriously considered for either the rotation out of 2010 spring.  Arneson came up after some impressive AA performances and slotted into the AAA rotation nicely.  Kown spent the season going up and down from AA to AAA and looked halfway decent in 11 starts for AAA.  Lastly Mock just returned from the DL and made a couple of starts for Syracuse late in the season, replacing the spot that was occupied by Zimmermann on rehab and Maya on “extended spring training.”

Among those who didn’t end the season in the rotation but who gave Syracuse a number of starts: Mandel was put into the bullpen to aid in his conversion to a reliever, as has been done this year already with the likes of Stammen, Balester and other organizational arms.  Syracuse had no less than 23 guys make starts, a fantastically high number.

2011 Outlook for the 5 starters at the end (in order of 2010 performance).  All #s listed are for this level only.

1. Matt Chico: 6-7, 3.73 era, 1.33 whip, 69/34 k/bb in 115 innings.  (he also made 5 similarly run of the mill starts in AA before getting moved up).  He’s still coming back from surgery technically, but a full season with mediocre minor league numbers combined with his advancing age (he’s 27 now) makes his prospects of ever contributing at the major league level slim.  He did feature nicely in his spot start this year and he did have a halfway decent 2007 season before getting hurt, but Baseball is a results oriented business and his aren’t cutting it.  2011 destination: Still in the AAA rotation but only because he’s a lefty.  He has already been removed from the 40-man roster.  He may lose out a rotation spot to one of the up and coming guys and languish as a middle reliever until cut loose as a minor league free agent.  His time as a prospect is probably over.
2. Erik Arneson: 6-8, 3.95 era, 1.29 whip, 70/31 k/bb in 107 innings.  Arneson also had 13 appearances in AA before getting moved up.  Arneson’s numbers in AAA were just about identical to Chico’s.  Arneson’s problem is that he’s not a overpowering guy; 70ks in 107 innings against weak AAA competition is not what the team is looking for.  He’s 26 this year and will turn 27 during spring training next year, putting him as already being “old” for the level.  He’s already survived one rule5 draft, which officially makes him an organizational player.  2011 destination: AAA rotation or moved to the bullpen.  Unfortunately for Arneson, he’s not really a prospect anymore, he’s not a candidate to compete for the 2011 MLB bullpen (right handed harder throwers with more MLB-ready stuff like Balester and Mock make more sense) and there’s starters in AA that need to move up.  His status may depend on the 2011 major league rotational battle, and whether or not guys like Stammen and Mock continue to be starters.
3. Andrew Kown: 2-4, 3.48 era, 1.34 whip, 41/16 k/bb in 62 innings thrown mostly in AAA starts (11 starts in 15 appearances).  Kown also had 15 starts in AA Harrisburg putting up similar ERA and k/9 numbers.  2011 destination: cut or released from the Nats organization.  Kown is right handed, turned 28 already and spent half the year in AA.  There’s just not going to be enough room on the AAA roster next year to keep a non-overpowering right hander around.  Plus he’s a minor league free agent and unlikely to be re-signed with a bunch of AA arms coming up.
4. Shairon Martis: 8-7, 4.09 era, 1.42 whip, 99/60 k/bb in 152 innings.  After making the 2009 rotation out of spring training, Martis apparently showed up at 2010’s spring training out of shape and he never really got considered for the rotation.  He labored in AAA all year and never really was in the mix for a call up.  2011 destination: he’s already been DFA’d from the roster, the team apparently deciding that they had seen enough of Shairon in his 5 years here.  It is possible he stays with the team and tries to earn his way back into the mix.
5. Garrett Mock: 1-1, 4.09 era, 1.27 whip in abbreviated AAA stint.  Mock was quickly demoted after a horrific MLB start (he pitched 3 1/3 innings, walked 5 guys and let another 4 get on base).  Soon after he was diagnosed with an odd neck injury (odd for baseball players), which cost him the season.  Luckily for the team it also saved them on Mock’s last option, so he will live on in the organization.  He has always had a live arm, and guys who throw mid 90s get chance after chance.  2011 outlook: Mock’s LAST chance to make the team as a reliever is probably 2011.  If he doesn’t stick this year, he’s out of options and will have to pass through waivers in 2012.

Your 2011 Opening Day starter. Photo: AP/Washington Times.

I started this blog to talk about the Nationals pitching staffs on the various levels, since that’s always been my obsession with this franchise.  However time constraints and the off season have limited my posts and analysis.  Today, for the first time in quite a while, I’m going to write about that which this blog supposedly focuses on: Nationals pitching.

Initially I was going to do an in-depth review of all 5 minor league pitching staffs for 2010 with detailed predictions for 2011.  Now that we’re 3 weeks away from pitchers and catchers reporting … I’m giving up on finding the time 🙂

However, here’s my thoughts on who I would be putting into the rotations of each level to start 2011.  These rotations cascade downwards from the top obviously, and assume no injuries.

Washington Nationals/MLB

Prediction Livan, Zimmermann, Lannan, Marquis and Gorzelanny in that order.

Despite some people (Ladson, Bill) thinking that we acquired Gorzelanny to be a middle reliever, in my mind Rizzo made the acquisition because he doesn’t trust either Maya or Detwiler in the #5 slot.  And I wouldn’t either; In 5 starts last year at the MLB level Maya looked outmatched and unable to keep MLB hitters at bay.  I like Yunesky Maya and think he can be a competitor in this league.  He was probably rushed through the minor leagues last summer and wasn’t ready for what he saw in September.  However, he fared very well in the Dominican Winter league (named best pitcher) and could change some opinions by beating out Gorzelanny for the #5 spot.

Meanwhile Ross Detwiler looks like a busted #1 pick, not able to stay healthy long enough to make an impression and (thanks to an incredibly questionable decision to call him up in Sept 2007) he’s quickly running out of options.  He’s in a similar boat as Madison Bumgarner; a lanky lefty who throws across his body with some pace, making consistency difficult and making his breaking pitches too horizontal.  Personally, i’d suggest packaging him in a trade and making the argument that he’s still a #1 overall pick who hasn’t gotten opportunity here.  Unfortunately competing GMs know what we know and probably are not giving up decent talent to get him.

This isn’t the greatest rotation in the league (most pundits easily put it in the bottom 5 right now), but it is an improvement over 2010’s opening day rotation (Lannan, Marquis, Stammen, Livan and Mock in case you forgot or blocked it from your memory).  If Wang can somehow show he’s healthy and productive, then our 2012 potential rotation of Strasburg, Zimmermann, Lannan, Wang and decent FA could be halfway decent.

Syracuse/AAA

Prediction: Maya, Detwiler, Arneson/Stammen, Tatusko, Roark.

Syracuse ended 2010 with this rotation (ages next to names): Chico 27, Arneson 26, Kown 28, Martis 23, Mock 27.

What a difference a couple weeks makes in terms of predicting a rotation.  We have DFA’d Martis, released Martin and outrighted Chico.  Kown is pushing 30 and was already a minor league free agent signing to begin with.  Mock continues to have a future in this organization by virtue of his live arm, but he’s never put it together at the MLB level and nobody seems to know if it is as a reliever or a starter.  For now I’m predicting that he ends up either being converted to a reliever or outrighted off the 40-man.

The AAA rotation probably ends up being a mix of promotions from AA and spring training losers from MLB.  I’m going under the assumption that Atilano gets DFA’d in the next week or so to make room for signings as they become official, and i’m assuming that Stammen is being converted to a middle reliever and is out of the starter mix.  Additionally, Mandel clearly has been converted to a reliever and looks set to stay there.

Arneson may be an odd-man out here as well; he’s not on the 40-man and has survived a rule 5 draft or two.  If the Nats want to keep Stammen as a starter, I could see Stammen taking Arneson’s place here.

Lastly, the two promotions from last year’s AA rotation are the two hurlers Tatusko and Roark we got from Texas in the Guzman trade.  Both came over from Texas’ incredibly strong AA affilliate and both continued dominating in the Eastern League.  In 6 starts , Tatusko had a 1.72 era, a 9k/9 ratio and a 1.17 whip.  Roark’s numbers were slighly worse but still better than anyone else on our AA squad.  The only problem is that both guys are “old” for AA and may be quickly moving from “prospect” to “organizational arm.”  I’d like to see what both guys can do in AAA.

We have a couple of additional names that may show up in this mix.  Brian Broderick was a rule-5 pickup from St. Louis that seems to be a long shot to crack either the MLB rotation or the bullpen.  However in this day and age, it seems that most rule5 guys are eventually acquired instead of returned, so I can see a lower-end prospect trade for the guy if he sufficiently impresses during spring training.  Also, Ryan Mattheus seems to be a favorite of the organization as well, and has signed a more-than-minimum deal for 2011.  Chuck James signed on as a minor league free agent and bounced around multiple levels of our system, always pitching fantastically, but never sniffed a call up or even a second contract.  I’d be curious to see where he ends up in 2011.

2/4/11 update: We have re-signed both JD Martin and Matt Chico and invited them to spring training, which may indicate that they could factor into the AAA rotation discussion.  The question may be; is it better to give Roark and Tatusko starts at the AAA level to see what they can do, or should we have open competition to see who shakes out?  I think we know what we have with both Martin and Chico (as does the rest of the league, since no one claimed them upon release and nobody gave them a major league deal).  We’ll see what happens.

Harrisburg/AA

prediction: Meyers, Peacock, Milone, Lehman and Holder

Harrisburg ended 2010 with this rotation: Peacock 22, Milone 23, Thompson 23, Roark 24, Tatusko 25.

Other notable names in the rotational mix for Harrisburg in 2010 include Mandel (promoted to AAA and converting to a reliever), Brad Meyers (injured after starting the season incredibly hot), Andrew Kown (moved up to AAA but probably not being retained), and Chuck James (who signed a minor league deal and pitched great, but does not seem likely to be retained).

Aaron Thompson (bounty for the Nick Johnson Trade) never lived up to his expectations as a Florida #1 draft pick and was DFA’d earlier this off season.  He got picked up by Pittsburgh (as did Scott Olsen) and that may be a better place for him to attempt to advance his career.

I believe we’ll see 3/5th of the starting 2010 rotation starting in Harrisburg in 2011, based on age and the log jam of hopefuls in AAA.  I like Meyers and hope to see him continue to dominate AA and have a healthy season.  We’ll see the two best starters from last year’s Potomac team (Lehman and Holder) moving up to start in AA.  I’d like to see Holder (who was considered a reach of a draft pick in 2009 by most pundits) to succeed and show his worth in 2011. This seems like a pretty strong group and will join some serious batting firepower coming up from high-A for the Harrisburg team in 2011.

Potomac/High-A

prediction: Frias, Rosenbaum, Bronson, Fabian, Applebee

Potomac ended the 2010 season with this rotation: Lehman 24, Holder 23, Frias 22, Alaniz 26, JJones 28

Potomac’s rotation was all over the map in 2010 due to injuries and promotions.  Jaime started the year
on the DL, Morris, Rosenbaum and Fabian ended the  year on the DL, which forced the continued use of
minor league retread Jones and effective but old Alaniz in starting roles.  We’ve moved AJ Morris (who
would have been Potomac’s ace last year) in this offseason for Gorzelanny, leaving open some opportunities.
And we gambled taking Jaime off the 40-man roster and lost, with Arizona quickly claiming him.  That move was necessary but probably a mistake, as Jaime was a live armed guy who at one point was a top 10 Baseball America system prospect for us.  Ah well; we had to keep a spot open for JD Martin you realize!

I’m predicting that Lehman and Holder move up to AA to start based on their age and time in the minors.
Neither guy really dominated the Carolina league last year but Lehman features a very good K/9 ratio and
Holder is a very high draft pick that the team isn’t about to give up on.  That leaves high-A holdovers from
2010 Frias, Fabian and Rosenbaum to lead the line.  Frias’ numbers were not great, but he was only 22.
Rosenbaum was effective before going down with injury.  The others (Bronson, Fabian and Applebee)
earn the spots more through a slight gap in the prospect line between the low-end leagues and high-A.

I’m not as confident with these predictions, and we very well may end up seeing Lehman and Holder starting
out the season in High-A again, with the plan to quickly move them up to AA.

Hagerstown/Low-A

Low-A prediction: Solis, Clegg, Demny, Ott/Jenkins, Grace

Hagerstown ended the 2010 season with this rotation: Low-A: Demny 21, Hicks 20, Bronson 23, Applebee 22, Ott 22.

Other notable names in the 2010 mix included McGeary (tommy john surgery; what a mess for this guy.  First round talent, bought him out of his Stanford commitment only to watch him struggle at every level.  You have to wonder if he’ll ever return), Clegg (who was 9-3 and pitching very well for a 21st rounder before DL), Smoker (another Bowden toolsy draft pick whose career seems to be in the toilet), and Sammy Solis (two spot starts after signing in mid august as a high-profile 2nd rounder).

We have traded Hicks, who didn’t have the greatest numbers last year but was only 20 pitching in a full season.  I’ve got Bronson and Applebee in the high-A rotation for now.

I think Solis’ success in the AFL may earn him a spot in high-A to start; if so switch Solis and Applebee.
Clegg has a chance to quickly move up the ranks as well and may be in line for a quick promotion.  Demny was young for low-A last year and had a decent first full season; i’ll bet he starts in low-A again and moves up mid-season.  Lastly, Ott came up late last year and had two unremarkable starts but there isn’t much else to compete with him, unless one of the college-guys from short A has an amazing spring and beats him out.   Jenkins possibly could  be in the mix here, being a lefty with good K/9 rates and being a bit too old to stay in short-A.  Finally, i’m predicting that 2010 draft pick Grace gets a look.  He was an 8th round pick out of UCLA and didn’t have the best numbers in the GCL … but he is a lefty, he doesn’t walk a ton of people and he could be a sleeper.

I have seen a couple of sites that believe we’ll be starting both A.J. Cole and Robbie Ray in full season Hagerstown.  I have a very hard time seeing that; both basically lost the entirety of 2010 in terms of professional development by waiting until August 15th sign, meaning that they both got minimal innings.  I think they stay in Florda as camp breaks and start in the GCL.  See below…

Short-A (Vermont last year, Auburn this year) and GCL/extended spring

Prediction: Cole, Ray, Hanks, Meza, KLopez, King, Encarnation and 3-4 starters that we draft in 2011.

Vermont ended 2010 with this rotation: Jenkins 22, Hansen 21, Swynenberg 21, Jordan 21, McKenzie 21/Bates 22
The GCL ended 2010 with this rotation: Hanks 20, Meza 20, KLopez 20, King 20, Encarnacion 21

There was not a whole lot to like about Vermont’s 2010 rotation.  The four guys who got the most starts
all had almost identical numbers in terms of ERA, Whip and K/9 (for me the three numbers most worth
looking at for minor leaguers).  They were all in the mid 4s in ERA with decent K/9 rates.  It is hard to see
any of them really having an impact; i’ll guess that most of them get converted to middle relief and move up
to comprise Hagerstown’s bullpen or repeat the Short-A season to determine if they have a future in professional baseball in general.

Meanwhile the GCL saw a very high number of starts go to rehabbing starters in 2010.  By my count, 14 of the 56 starts in GCL last year were either rehab starts or “extended spring training” starts for guys that
were headed for upper levels.  This may have been due to the lack of young starting pitcher prospects available to us, since the starts we did get from prospects in the GCL (Hanks, Meza, KLopez, King) were as unimpressive as the starts we got out of Vermont.

In many ways both rotations really depend on who we draft in June, since both leagues essentially start just after the draft.  The higher-end/older draft picks fill up the short-A roster, while the younger/lower-end draft picks form the GCL roster.  I’m guessing that both the starlet high school arms out of 2010’s draft (Cole and Ray) start in extended spring and then move up to short-A when they’re ready.  I do not believe they’ll start in Hagerstown based on the lack of professional innings in 2010.  They’ll be initially supplimented by the four 20-yr olds in GCL last year until solutions make themselves apparent.  If guys like Meza, King, Lopez and Encarnation do not improve, they’ll soon be converted to relievers or outright released to make room for the next set of draft picks.

Thats it.  From an organizational perspective, it seems that outside of Ray and Cole we have very few starter prospects anywhere below low-A, and that our pipeline seems thin right now.  Perhaps something to think about during the 2011 draft, which is very college-arm heavy and we have 3 early draft picks. Hopefully we identify some fast-moving arms and continue the improvement of the system in general.

The Nats lucked out and get to retain Chico's services after his DFA. Photo: Commons.wikimedia.org

The signings of Chien-Ming Wang and Rick Ankiel of last week forced the hands of the Nats, putting them 2 players above the 40-man limitation on the aptly named 40-man roster.

(Coincidentally, there was some confusion, based on the announcement of the resigning of minor leaguer Ryan Mattheus, about whether or not he was also on the 40-man, but beat writer Zuckerman cleared the situation up in his post yesterday:

For those wondering whether they needed to drop another person to make room for right-hander Ryan Mattheus, a club official explained that while Mattheus did sign a major-league contract this fall, he did so before getting outrighted to Syracuse. Basically, he’s a minor-leaguer not on the 40-man roster with a major-league contract.

Thus, we only had to clear TWO spots not three, as was speculated all week in the blogger community).

To make room on the roster, the Nats DFA’d Matt Chico and Aaron Thompson this week.  Chico made his way through the waivers process and was assigned to AAA, but we found out this morning that Thompson was claimed by Pittsburgh and we have lost our trade “bounty” for Nick Johnson from a couple years back.

Now, not that Thompson’s performance in the minors the last couple years merited his place in the future plans of the Nationals (he was pretty much awful in AA this year: 4-13 with a 5.80era, 1.59 whip and a 95/53 k/bb ratio in 136 2/3 innings) but I find the choices of players DFA’d curious.  Left handed pitchers are the hardest positions to fill, and yet we’ve released two of them.

Why risk two left-handed pitchers, one of which is still quite young and was once a coveted prospect, instead of players on the roster who clearly guys who are no longer in the plans of the team?

Cases in point:

1. Justin Maxwell.  He’s 27, he’s never come close to putting up decent numbers in the majors (career slash line: .201/.319/.379 in 260 PAs), and he’s now 8th out of 8 outfielders on our 40 man outfielder depth chart (in rough order: Werth, Morgan, Bernadina, Morse, Ankiel, Harper, CBrown and him).  Are we expecting Maxwell to make the team out of spring training?  Do we really think he’s going to beat out Bernadina, Morse, or Ankiel?  Didn’t we just acquire Brown from the A’s to eventually compete for and/or win the left fielder job?

I like Maxwell; he’s a local guy and has shown flashes of brilliance.  But he’s too old to make sense in Syracuse and its time to move on.

2. JD Martin: He will be 28 by next spring training and has career major league numbers of 6-9, 4.32 era, 1.396 whip and a 96 era+.  Not bad (actually better numbers than guys like Mock, Stammen and Detwiler) but nothing special.  He is a soft-tossing slightly built right handed pitcher in a league that is trending towards large bodied, power throwing right handers as the norm.  What exactly does Martin have that can’t be easily replicated from any AAA rotation in the minors?

And more importantly (as with Maxwell) where exactly does Martin fit into the plans for the rotation next year?  I have him ranked either 13th or 14th out of our 14 Starters right now (in rough order of value to the team Strasburg, Zimmermann, Lannan, Marquis, LHernandez, Maya, Stammen, Detwiler, Martis, Mock, Atilano,Wang, Martin, Broderick).  In other words, he’s going to have trouble cracking the AAA rotation (by my guesses, Chico, Mock, Atilano, Martis and Detwiler right now).

Dropping guys off the 40-man is always a risky affair.  Earlier this off-season lots of blogger noise was heard from the curious dropping of Juan Jaime, who was subsequently claimed by Arizona.  At the time we still had several players who we KNEW we were not going to offer arbitration (specifically Wil Nieves), so why drop a young hard-thrower?  That move didn’t make sense then and doesn’t make sense now.

Today’s moves cost us a prospect needlessly.  Lets hope the team picks the right players the next time they make a move.

Sammy Solis pitching in high school. Photo www.azdiamondreport.com

Sammy Solis (pronounced Soo-lease) was the Nats 2nd round pick in the June amateur draft.  Some pundits questioned whether we’d be able to sign him as the August 15th deadline approached.  However, we got his deal done for slightly above slot (along with a couple other question marks in AJ Cole and Robbie Ray, both of whom got far above slot for 4th and 12th rounders respectively).

After putting in a couple of scoreless (albeit abbreviated) starts in Hagerstown, we sent him off to the AFL.  He got the start in the AFL championship game today, and this being the first time this Nats fan got a chance to look at him we tuned in.  His team Scottsdale ended up winning the game 3-2 to win the championship.

Observations: he has a pretty easy arm motion.  He has a low three-quarters arm slot, almost sidearm.  The left-hander brings a variable speed fastball that goes from 91-92 to speeds in the 97 range. He has been working on a cut-fastball, which would explain the low-90s version of the fastball versus the high-end ball.  He has a side-arm curve in the mid-70s mpg range that he sometimes struggled to keep in the zone (one of the criticisms of Solis is that his curve isn’t sharp enough, probably because of the arm slot resulting in more of a “slurve” instead of a nice breaking curve).  He definitely has gained significant speed on his fastball since his days at U. San Diego, at least if you trust this scouting report or this one and if you trust the gun on TV.  Keith Law liked him in college and predicts a quick rise through the minors. I didn’t necessarily too many change-ups, which is too bad since reportedly it is a plus pitch for him but isn’t out of character for an amateur-recently-turned-pro pitcher.

He benefited on the day from a rather large strike zone (getting Dustin Ackley on a called 3rd strike in the first that may have been slightly up and away) but he definitely showed some dominance over a strong lineup.  He got the side in order in the first, gave up a walk and a broken bat single in the second.  He got a double-play ball that was thrown away giving up a run in the 2nd (the run is earned despite the error on the double play attempt).  In the 3rd he worked the first hitter well, fooling him on a change-up and then striking him out w/ a nice curve before getting the next two guys on a deep flyball and a grounder to short.  He works fast, he’s always around the strike zone and he looked pretty comfortable on the mound.

In the 4th he got Ackley down 0-2 but then gave up a single to left to the AFL’s leading hitter and MVP and (arguably) closest prospect to the majors.  Solis showed some decent moves to first, showing a conventional and a quick-throw over, nearly picking Ackley off at one point.  He gave up another single after getting the count worked to 3-2 against Peoria’s cleanup hitter Ryan Lavarnway.  Eventually he leaked a 2nd run after another error in the infield.  He left the game with the lead after his team got him a run in the bottom of the 4th.  I can’t say that anyone really got “good wood” on him all day; the best hit balls being one deep flyball and perhaps the two singles in the fourth.

The Scottsdale Scorpions featured no less than four Nats in the starting lineup (Steve Lombardozzi, Derek Norris and Bryce Harper) with a couple more prospects (Adam Carr and Cole Kimball)  in the bullpen.  Norris legged out a deep grounder to 3rd that probably was an error but showed some great speed for a catcher.  He also got himself into scoring position with some heads up base-running before getting driven in by a sac fly in the 2nd.  Lombardozzi ripped a double in the 4th to give his team the lead.  Kimball pitched a 1-2-3 9th and showed a 98-mph fastball with good secondary pitches, further proof that he has a realistic chance to make the Nats bullpen in 2011.

Harper hit the first pitch he saw, going with a fastball outside and up and driving it through the right side of the field to drive in a run.  Definitely a nice swing but continues his trend of swinging early in the count.  One thing the Nats will definitely ask him to work on is patience at the plate in the minors next year.  That being said, it is awfully hard to criticize a known baseball rat who sat the entire summer and only got to play twice a week in the AFL for his patience at the plate.  In each subsequent at bat he also went up hacking at the first pitch.  In the 4th he popped up to right.  In his third AB he again swung at the first pitch and missed badly on a curve.  He then missed just as badly on two more similar curves, striking out.  And in his last at bat he K’d again after fouling a couple pitches off.

Conclusions: well, its hard not to be excited about the slew of Nats prospects in this game overall, and by Solis in particular.  He wasn’t Strasburg-esque in terms of dominance but he controlled the zone and seemed comfortable on the mound against the Minor’s best.  I can see him starting 2011 in Potomac and quickly moving up to Harrisburg, with an eye for a debut in 2012.  Norris is the real deal and I’m beginning to see why Law believes Norris is our “catcher of the future” and not Ramos or even Flores at this point.  Kimball gives the Nats something we really don’t have; a serious power arm to bring in to game in the 6th or 7th to shut down rallies.  Lombardozzi seems undersized but, well, he’s a middle infielder, and we all know who and what Harper is capable of.

Can we just fast forward to 2012?

You may not know who Brad Meyers is now, but he may be pitching for the Nats before you know it. Photo Rodger M. Wood/Wood Sports Photography

The Nats (and every other team) face an 11/19/10 deadline to add Rule5 eligible players that we want to protect to our 40-man roster. (Coincidentally, I maintain a spreadsheet online of key MLB off-season dates and their implications for the team.  The link is also available in the “NatsArm Creations” section on the links section to the right of this page).  NatsInsider.com writer Zuckerman beat me to the punch on this topic (which I wrote up last weekend but forgot to publish), but here’s some similar analysis.

Last year we added three players on 11/19/09 to protect them from the Rule5 Draft:

• Juan Jaime, rhp
• Aaron Thompson, lhp
• Atahualpa Severino, lhp

Nats bloggers/analysts at the time surmised that we were gambling by not putting on guys like Erik Arneson and Hassan Pena or even local favorite Josh Wilkie (especially after he appeared in 2009’s Arizona Fall League), but we only ended up losing Zech Zinicola to the Rule5 draft.  We lost him to Toronto, who had former Nationals executive Dana Brown picking up a player he was familiar with.  Toronto eventually returned Zinicola to the franchise, and he split time between AA and AAA as a middle reliever.

Ironically, two of last year’s Rule5 protection players are now candidates to be dropped OFF the 40-man just one year later because of Injury (in Jaime’s case) or performance (in Thompson’s case).  Severino had a very nice season and should be in the mix to be the LOOGY out of the MLB bullpen in 2011.  In fact, Jaime was taken off the 40-man on 11/18/10 for just this reason.

This year, we definitely face a number of interesting choices on what prospects to protect.  RIP NatsFarmAuthority, but at least Brian Oliver has not taken down the Draft Tracker xls, so we can see who is 2010 Rule5 eligible.   Here’s the list of guys who are at risk with some thoughts in this year’s rule5 draft.   Remember; any team that grabs one of these guys has to keep them on their MLB roster for the entire 2011 season, so the analysis is based on who realistically is in jeopardy of this situation happening with.  These are ordered by the team that they played the majority of 2010 with:

Syracuse

• Whiting, Boomer OF: light hitting speedy center fielder.  A .313 slugging percentage in the weaker AAA league just isn’t going to cut it.  He’s not in the mix for even a backup OF spot in the majors and seems destined to be an organizational guy/career minor leaguer.
• Mandel, Jeff RHP: a decent starter for the Nats over the past couple of seasons who moved to the bullpen in Syracuse towards the end of the season.  He’s not overpowering and not a high K/9 guy, and seems to be now a middle relief guy at best.  Might be worth the protection since he may be a candidate for the 2011 MLB bullpen.
• Wilkie, Josh RHP: I didn’t initially have Wilkie on the list, since we got him as an undrafted FA.  Zuckerman noted that he is rule5 eligible so we’ll discuss.  He has definitely performed for this franchise through the years, and was showcased in the 2010 AFL.  Having just finished his 5th professional season, he has methodically moved up the ranks and spent the entire 2010 in Syracuse.  He’s a middle reliever, a righty, with a good BA against and good peripheral numbers.  Is this worth protection in the draft?  Perhaps.  I feel he could compete for a spot in the MLB bullpen in 2011 but he’s behind several other proven right handed throwers and may be destined for AAA again.

Harrisburg

• Rhinehart, Bill 1B/OF: demoted towards the end of the season to Potomac.  Now a 26-yr old guy who hasn’t been successful above High-A.  Days are numbered.
• Marrero, Chris 1B/OF: our first round draft pick in 2006 and pretty much the sole first baseman prospect in the system.  He played a full season at AA and put up a decent line (.294/.350/.450) with 18 homers as a relatively young player in the league (he turned 22 in July).  I don’t know if he can turn into a producer at the MLB level and a large FA contract to Dunn or Pena could block him even further.  But he merits protection until we find out what we have with him.
• Peacock, Brad RHP: He has been a decently effective starter for the team on multiple levels, this year stepping it up in terms of K/9.  He’s at the Arizona Fall League working out of the bullpen and is putting up similar numbers there that he did in the regular season (good k/9 numbers but an eras in the mid 4s).  Putting Peacock in the AFL surely will increase his visibility, but his mediocre performance there probably guarantees his safety in the Rule5 draft.  No need to protect him, but we hope he turns into a decent middle relief option in a couple years.  11/20/10 Correction; as noted by Kilgore here, Peacock’s Draft-Follow-Evaluate status means he gets one extra year.  We’ll revist in 2011.
• Meyers, Brad RHP.  Meyers was the ace of the 2009 league winning Potomac staff and was named the Nats minor league pitcher of the year.  For 2010 he moved up to Harrisburg and was dominant in his first 6 starts there (1.47 era, 35 ks in 30 innings and under a 1.00 whip) before going down with complications to foot surgery and failing to pitch the rest of the season.  Because of this injury he seems a safe bet NOT to need protection despite his capabilities; no team is going to guarantee a 25-man roster spot all season to a guy who hasn’t pitched since June and who has never appeared above AA.  But we may want to be safer than sorry.
• Solano, Jhonatan C: another who I didn’t initially have on this list, the Nats got him as an undrafted FA in 2006 and he is rule5 eligible.  While you never like to lose catching depth out of your system, suddenly the Nats are swimming in it.  We have 4 catchers on the 40-man right now, and that’s two too many for the MLB roster as it is.  We are probably non-tendering Nieves at some point but that means one of Flores or Ramos is starting in AAA.  Derek Norris is definitely moving up to Harrisburg for 2011, so that means Solano is designed to be a backup either way.  He’s not going to get picked up in a rule5 draft, so we can leave him unprotected.

Potomac, Hagerstown or Vermont.  It is really difficult to think that any player at A-ball or below is seriously a candidate to be taken in the Rule5 draft, but we’ll zip through the candidates.

• Alaniz, Adrian RHP: put up pretty good numbers at Potomac after losing out in a rotational numbers game in spring training.  Has now spent parts of 3 straight seasons in Harrisburg but cannot stick.  He’s getting too old for A ball though and might need to show something out of spring to keep a pitching job.
• Phillabaum, Justin RHP: he’s a later-innings/8th inning guy who got hit very hard this year in Potomac.
• Beno, Martin RHP: no progress for the righty, having played the entire 2009 and 2010 seasons in high-A.
• Gibson, Glenn RHP: traded to the Rays to obtain Elijah Dukes and then released.  I guess the Nats picked him back up because they liked him enough to draft him in the first place.  Assigned to Hagerstown, demoted to Vermont after putting up an 8+ ERA.  Not a prospect.
• Erb, Shane RHP: he posted a 6.19 era at low-A this year, the LOWEST ERA he’s had in 3 years in the system.  Days are numbered in the organization.
• King, Stephen 3B: struggled between short and low A this year, and possibly still held in contempt by the organization for a 50-game drug suspension that cost him the early part of the year.  May be out of a job soon.
• Lyons, Dan, 3B: Batted .223 between low-A and high-A as a 26 year old.  Clearly too old for either level and may be outright released.

Conclusions:

If I were the Nats i’d protect Mandel, Marrero and Meyers to be safe.  With the Jaime move that would put us exactly at 40/40 on the 40-man.   At that point we possibly consider adding in Peacock or Wilkie but probably not: if one or the other of these two needed to go on, we have a few guys who could be dumped off the 40-man and probably would clear waivers.

11/20/10 update: The Nats chose to protect Marrero, Adam Carr and Cole Kimball.  In retrospect, I suppose I should have taken guys like Carr and Kimball into account.  They first became rule5 eligible last year and were not protected, and were not selected.  In the year since both have become valuable power arms out of the bullpen and are leading candidates to compete with and/or replace the likes of Batista, Peralta and Walker in the 2011 bullpen.  Next year 🙂

As I watch the NLCS and its surprising results so far (Cody Ross with a Reggie Jackson-esque performance thus far, Roy Halladay getting beat, etc), you can’t help but notice some interesting items about the Giants roster and its makeup.

1. The Giants THREE highest paid players (Zito, Rowand, Guillen) are not even on the post season roster, and their 4th highest paid player (Renteria) is not the starter at short.

2. The position players that the Giants are depending on are all either developed internally (Posey, Sandoval) are retread/journeyman free agents on one-year deals (Torres, Uribe, Huff, Fontenot) or total reclamation projects (Burrell who was DFA’d earlier this season and Ross who they got on waivers).

3. Almost their entire pitching staff is home grown. Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Bumgarner plus setup/closer
combo of Romo and Wilson are all original SF draft picks. Only #5 Starter Zito is an (infamous) FA acquisition.

Here’s a quick table of Giants “primary starters” player acquisition methods:

By way of comparison, the Nationals opening day roster featured only FOUR such home grown players (Zimmerman, Desmond, Lannan and Stammen).

The Giants list their 2010 payroll at $96M, of which $42M is allocated to those 3 guys not even rostered.  Imagine what this team would look like if that $42M was properly allocated.

I think what this shows is that, with enough development time and effort put into your pitching staff you can get to the playoffs even with near replacement players in most of your fielding positions. Hope for the Nats, since this seems to be the direction Rizzo is going with his 2009 and 2010 pitcher heavy drafts. 8 of the first 11 picks in 2009 were arms, and while only 4 of 2010’s top 10 picks were arms there was significant funds paid to Solis, Cole and Ray.

Can the Nats turn these two drafts (plus other prospects) into a Giants-esque rotation? Strasburg, Zimmermann, Solis, and Cole all project to be #1 or #2 starter quality per scouting reports. Those four, plus live arms in the pen like Storen, Holder and Morris could be our future. 3-4 years out future, but still promising.

Or am I too rosy glasses colored?