Nationals Arm Race

"… the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same – pitching.” — Earl Weaver

Syracuse 2010 Pitching season in Review

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This is the first in a series of articles reviewing the 2010 Nationals minor league affiliate pitching staffs.  I’ll post one a day for each of our levels starting with AAA and moving downwards.

AAA baseball rosters are unique among the affiliate teams.  By and large AAA rosters are not filled with a team’s burgeoning drafted talents; instead, AAA rosters are often storage lockers for “spare parts” for the major league roster (backup catchers, utility infielders).  Even more so, the AAA roster (in terms of pitchers) usually contains the last few guys cut from the MLB roster and/or relievers who couldn’t make the grade in the majors.  Certainly Syracuse’s pitching staff fits this bill, and had a ton of player movement (up and down) during the season.  Lets talk about where we landed at the end of the season:

(age is as of 12/31/10)

  • AAA Starters by Performance: Chico 27, Arneson 26, Kown 28, Martis 23, Mock 27
  • (rotation order: Chico, Martis, Arneson, Mock, Kown)
  • bullpen: Bergmann, Wilkie, Severino, Balester, Carr, Bisenius
  • spot starts: Mandel (demoted from starter)
  • promotions: Olsen, Slaten, Storen, JDMartin, Peralta
  • 9/1 callups: Balester, Maya, Bisenius
  • up-and-back: Bergmann, Chico (from AA), Stammen (and back), Atilano (and back), Severino, Balester
  • demotions: Spradlin, Zinicola, CJames, Kown (and back), MacDougal (and back), JJones, Garate
  • dl: English
  • cut/released: MacDougal, Villone, ABrown

Starter Review

Shairon Martis was the only rotational guy to spend the entire season in AAA, having lost out on the 5-man battle for the big club in spring training.  Chico came up after a few AA starts and got one spot start in the majors but was never seriously considered for either the rotation out of 2010 spring.  Arneson came up after some impressive AA performances and slotted into the AAA rotation nicely.  Kown spent the season going up and down from AA to AAA and looked halfway decent in 11 starts for AAA.  Lastly Mock just returned from the DL and made a couple of starts for Syracuse late in the season, replacing the spot that was occupied by Zimmermann on rehab and Maya on “extended spring training.”

Among those who didn’t end the season in the rotation but who gave Syracuse a number of starts: Mandel was put into the bullpen to aid in his conversion to a reliever, as has been done this year already with the likes of Stammen, Balester and other organizational arms.  Syracuse had no less than 23 guys make starts, a fantastically high number.

2011 Outlook for the 5 starters at the end (in order of 2010 performance).  All #s listed are for this level only.

  1. Matt Chico: 6-7, 3.73 era, 1.33 whip, 69/34 k/bb in 115 innings.  (he also made 5 similarly run of the mill starts in AA before getting moved up).  He’s still coming back from surgery technically, but a full season with mediocre minor league numbers combined with his advancing age (he’s 27 now) makes his prospects of ever contributing at the major league level slim.  He did feature nicely in his spot start this year and he did have a halfway decent 2007 season before getting hurt, but Baseball is a results oriented business and his aren’t cutting it.  2011 destination: Still in the AAA rotation but only because he’s a lefty.  He has already been removed from the 40-man roster.  He may lose out a rotation spot to one of the up and coming guys and languish as a middle reliever until cut loose as a minor league free agent.  His time as a prospect is probably over.
  2. Erik Arneson: 6-8, 3.95 era, 1.29 whip, 70/31 k/bb in 107 innings.  Arneson also had 13 appearances in AA before getting moved up.  Arneson’s numbers in AAA were just about identical to Chico’s.  Arneson’s problem is that he’s not a overpowering guy; 70ks in 107 innings against weak AAA competition is not what the team is looking for.  He’s 26 this year and will turn 27 during spring training next year, putting him as already being “old” for the level.  He’s already survived one rule5 draft, which officially makes him an organizational player.  2011 destination: AAA rotation or moved to the bullpen.  Unfortunately for Arneson, he’s not really a prospect anymore, he’s not a candidate to compete for the 2011 MLB bullpen (right handed harder throwers with more MLB-ready stuff like Balester and Mock make more sense) and there’s starters in AA that need to move up.  His status may depend on the 2011 major league rotational battle, and whether or not guys like Stammen and Mock continue to be starters.
  3. Andrew Kown: 2-4, 3.48 era, 1.34 whip, 41/16 k/bb in 62 innings thrown mostly in AAA starts (11 starts in 15 appearances).  Kown also had 15 starts in AA Harrisburg putting up similar ERA and k/9 numbers.  2011 destination: cut or released from the Nats organization.  Kown is right handed, turned 28 already and spent half the year in AA.  There’s just not going to be enough room on the AAA roster next year to keep a non-overpowering right hander around.  Plus he’s a minor league free agent and unlikely to be re-signed with a bunch of AA arms coming up.
  4. Shairon Martis: 8-7, 4.09 era, 1.42 whip, 99/60 k/bb in 152 innings.  After making the 2009 rotation out of spring training, Martis apparently showed up at 2010’s spring training out of shape and he never really got considered for the rotation.  He labored in AAA all year and never really was in the mix for a call up.  2011 destination: he’s already been DFA’d from the roster, the team apparently deciding that they had seen enough of Shairon in his 5 years here.  It is possible he stays with the team and tries to earn his way back into the mix.
  5. Garrett Mock: 1-1, 4.09 era, 1.27 whip in abbreviated AAA stint.  Mock was quickly demoted after a horrific MLB start (he pitched 3 1/3 innings, walked 5 guys and let another 4 get on base).  Soon after he was diagnosed with an odd neck injury (odd for baseball players), which cost him the season.  Luckily for the team it also saved them on Mock’s last option, so he will live on in the organization.  He has always had a live arm, and guys who throw mid 90s get chance after chance.  2011 outlook: Mock’s LAST chance to make the team as a reliever is probably 2011.  If he doesn’t stick this year, he’s out of options and will have to pass through waivers in 2012.

Written by Todd Boss

February 14th, 2011 at 10:42 am

5 Responses to 'Syracuse 2010 Pitching season in Review'

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  1. Good stuff. Hopefull, you’re selling Arnesen short as he only had 1/2 a year in AAA last year.
    Also, Todd, you’re selling yourself short by not having links with Nationals Prospects & Nats Insider. There are plenty of fans who don’t get to your site because there’s an ‘out of sight, out of mind’ mentality to someone’s busy day. I think plenty of people would find your site useful and they just need an introduction.

    Mark L

    14 Feb 11 at 11:52 am

  2. As I go through deeper dives into the rotations, i’m slightly changing my opinions on who ends up where. Arneson may be one guy. When i post the Harrisburg one I definitely have changed opinions on guys like Meyers/Milone versus Tatusko and Roark.

    Hey, I can’t Make these sites link to me 🙂 I’m relatively new here. I was posting on natsfarm.com as a guest writer for Oliver here and there, so guys like Zuckerman and Dinem should have at least heard of me. I do try to do self-promotion by posting links to my stuff in the comment sections of other blogs but I think that’s kinda self-aggrandizing in some ways.

    Todd Boss

    14 Feb 11 at 12:22 pm

  3. I’ll remind them of your existence, it must be an oversight. I’m certainly no expert on these things, but it does seem like you should be there.

    Mark L

    14 Feb 11 at 12:55 pm

  4. tboss: SYR will be the toughest starting staff to judge, as there could be arms pushed down from the 40-man (Detwiler, Maya, Mock, Stammen, possibly Broderick), established pitchers / NRI’s (Arnesen, Atilano, Chico, Gaudin, JD Martin, Martis, possibly Barthmeier), and a couple of up & comers (Milone, possibly Tatusko). Culling 5-6 arms from that list is daunting, to say the least.

    BinM

    17 Feb 11 at 6:14 pm

  5. Totally agree on the difficulty of predicting Syracuse’s roster. Is Stammen still considered a starter or being moved (ala Balester) to long relief? Why is Mock still in the picture, after having failed to show the team success as either a starter or a reliever? Barring injury, you have to think Detwiler and Maya are starting in AAA no matter what. But there’s guys who have dominated AA that need places and there’s guys (Chico, Martin in particular) who have shown flashes in the past.

    I guess it is what makes the “prediction” business so much fun.

    Now if it were me, I’d clean house of all the non 40-man roster guys and let the kids have the spots. We didn’t trade for Roark and Tatusko to let them become middle relievers in AAA. I want to see them starting. I’ll be disappointed if Martin and Chico have rotation spots over Roark/Tatusko.

    Todd Boss

    18 Feb 11 at 9:33 am

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