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2025 Draft top 10 Picks with Per Player Analysis and Ranks

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Petry projects as a 1B/LF slugger after a solid career in South Carolina. photo via BA

We just posted a quick reaction to the 1-1 pick Eli Willits. Here’s a run through the first 10 picks, for all of Day 1 and Day 2 of the draft, showing where the various prospect ranking shops ranked our picks, with some thoughts and bonus projections.

Here’s the two main draft tracker resources you need and that I’m updating this week in as close to real-time as I can given my current employment status :-):

  • Nationals Draft Tracker: this is the long-running Google XLS with all our picks dating to 2005. There’s two tabs here: the main page with every pick, then a deeper-dive 2025 Draft pick with slot bonus breakdowns and other information on each pick.
  • MLB’s Draft Tracker, the best of various options of Draft Trackers out there.

Here’s links to major Prospect Rankings shops that I’ll reference below when assessing the “value” of the pick.

  • 1st Round, 1st Overall: Eli Willits, Prep SS from Fort Cobb-Broxton HS in Oklahoma.

Ranks by major shops: BA=3, Law=8, MLB=5, Fangraphs=5, Prospects1500=6, ESPN=3

As already discussed, this was a shock pick to most pundits and the industry, who had the Nats taking either Anderson or Holliday for the most part. Willits is still a top 5 player on nearly every draft board (Keith Law being the low-man on him, citing lack of power). A lot of the shops talk about his floor being easy to attain, so there’s that. For me, I think he’s a #5 overall pick projection who made it to 1-1 probably by cutting a deal, so we’ll see how much savings the team got (probably in the $3M range) and how they can spread it out amongst the rest of the draft. Committed to Oklahoma, where his dad is on staff, but he’ll never get there.

  • 2nd round #49 overall: Ethan Petry, a 4th year College Jr 1B/OF from U of South Carolina

Ranks by major shops: BA=36, Law=68, MLB=59, Fangraphs=104, Prospects1500=44, ESPN=75

Petry pretty clearly is a slugger. He’s got 60s and 65s for his power grade amongst the various shops, and is probably a LF/1B/DH type in pro ball. He has posted solid power numbers throughout his career, with pretty impressive 110mph+ EVs. One scouting report even said he could have been in the mix for 1-1 if he was better defensively (which seems like a stretch) An interesting pick here, and one that (like the Willits pick) seems to be more analytics driven (his eye popping EV). Is this an over- or under-slot pick? Is he getting $1.98m here? I’ll bet he signs for a bit under-slot.

  • 3rd round #80 overall: Landon Harmon, RHP prep from East Union Attendance Center HS (MS)

Ranks by major shops: BA=65, Law=95, MLB=48, Fangraphs=31, Prospects1500=65, ESPN=76

Mississippi State commit who is tall (6-5) with a huge fastball (has hit 100) but mechanical concerns (well at least if you believe Keith Law, who thinks everyone has mechanical issues). Yes, he’s a prep right hander in an organization that hasn’t done a great job producing them over the last decade, but has been a bit better as of late with Sykora and Clemmey and even Cuevas, who was a prep 21st rounder and who still is active). We’ll see. this seems like a slightly over-slot deal here, and if you pay him like an early 2nd rounder (i.e. throw in another $1M on top of his slot $1m) he could sign. Should be interesting to see what he signs for. Committed to Mississippi State.

  • 4th round #111 overall: Miguel Sime Jr, RHP prep from Poly Prep Country Day School (NY)

Ranks by major shops: BA=88, Law=nr, MLB=86, Fangraphs=120/HM, Prospects1500=nr, ESPN=nr

Four picks into the new regime and we already have more prep kids drafted than the last 5 drafts combined. Ok, no that’s not quite true… but its close. Sime is from a northern school but has apparently been at every showcase held for the last two years. MLB gives him a 70 grade on his fastball, no small feat. He was at the NHSI that I covered earlier this year, and per BA’s scouting report “held upper-90s velocity for more than 100 pitches” against the Corona HS team that had both Carlson and Hernandez. Wow. This is a big guy: 6’3″ 235 already, that’s like linebacker sized. Hitting 99, sitting 95-96. I’m guessing it takes another extra $750 to get him to sign. Committed to LSU, not that that matters anymore. I like him on paper for sure.

  • 5th Round #142 overall Coy James, a prep SS from Davie HS (NC)

Ranks by major shops: BA=49, Law=nr, MLB=94, Fangraphs=66, Prospects1500=59, ESPN=69

He’s a 6’0″ shortstop who most of the scouts list as one of the best pure hitters in the class. he was an U18 starter as an underclassman, and per reports has “explosive power” despite being a SS. James went into the 2025 prospect season as a slam dunk top 10 pick, projected as high as #10 by BA’s ranks at the time. So what happened? Scouting reports say he gained weight, which added power but caused him to lose athleticism. It sounds to me like someone in the Nats org fell in love with him at a combine somewhere and figures they can get him in shape. He projects like a 20-homer slugging 2B in the pros, and apparently has a “strong commitment” to ole Miss. I’ll bet he nabs near 1st round money ($2.5M or more) and this could be where a lot of our savings goes.

  • 6th round: #171 overall: Boston Smith, Col Sr. C/OF from Wright State
  • 7th round: #201 overall: Julian Tonghini, Col Sr RHP from Arizona
  • 8th round: #231 overall: Riley Maddox, Col Sr RHP from Ole Miss
  • 9th round: #261 overall: Wyatt Henseler, Col Sr 2B/3B from Texas A&M
  • 10th round: #291 overall: Hunter Hines, Col Sr 1B from Mississippi State.

Ranks by major shops: none

So, it’s now pretty clear that this is going to be a 5-man draft. With all due respect to these guys, they are drafted in these spots for one reason: Bonus $$ savings. Every one of these guys is a 4th or 5th year senior with no leverage, and they all probably agreed to sign for $10k (or less), which nets a collective $1.3m or so for the team to throw at other players. There’s no real scouting reports available on any of them.

Of course, this team has had some decent results out of these senior sign/throw away picks lately. Jackson Ross signed for just $2k last year and has already earned a promotion to High-A. Glasser is in AA now as a $10k signing in 2023. Murphy Sthehy the same; in AA as a $10k signing in 2022. Our backup catcher in AAA is Brad Lindsly; he signed for just $20k in the Covid year and is still going. So, these players do matter and can have an impact.

That being said, here’s a quick look at each of them, primarily looking at stats from their colleges and bio:

  • Boston Smith at Wright State was a monster at the plate this year, with a 1.274 OPS slashing .332/.500/.774 with 26 homers. He hit three homers in his first three games at the CWS Vanderbilt regional, helping Wright State to eliminate the #1 seed and certainly making an impression.
  • Julian Tonghini at Arizona was a back of the bullpen type; 22 games, 25 IP. Not great numbers from an ERA or WHIP perspective but struck out 44 guys in 25IP. I’m sure that’s what the team is looking at; decent value reliever who is old enough to get through the lower minors fast and see if he’s got what it takes to stick.
  • Riley Maddox was in Ole Miss’ rotation all year and struggled, 5.56 ERA, 1.45 whip. 69/30 K/BB in 69 IP. He regressed a bit from his Jr. season, where he also made every start.
  • Wyatt Henseler at Texas A&M: .319/.423/.562 for the season. He was a grad student at TAMU, having done four years at UPenn. He was a 2nd team pre-season All American at D1baseball.com, and certainly hit like it. If he put these numbers up as a Coll Jr he’d be a 4th or 5th rounder; instead he’s a no-leverage 9th rounder for us. He played both 2B and 3B in college and probably can do the same in for us. I’ll bet he can hit in pro ball and I like this pick.
  • Hunter Hines from Mississippi State slashed .280/.380/.578 as their primary 1B all year. Big guy, 6’3″ 210, lefty swinger. He was first team all-SEC as a sophomore, starting to get some traction, but lost some of that traction in the last two years. Still, he took over the all-time lead in homers late in the 2025 season at the program, besting the record formerly held by Rafael Palmeiro. He seems like a pure masher who is destined for 1B/DH levels, but that’s worth a gamble for sure.

So, that being said, Here’s what I think the team does with its bonus dollars.

  • Willits: slot $11M. I bet he signs for a bit more than the $8.1M that the 5th overall slot was guaranteed for (his projection in most mocks): call it $8.5M, so $2.5M savings.
  • Picks 6-10: total bonus pool: $1.33M, $10k each so $50k less, plus the 5% cushion leads to $1.3M in savings.
  • Petry: slot $1.98M, I’ll bet he signs for a bit less: call it $1.75M for $250k of savings.

So that would give the team right around $4M to work with before the 5% cushion.

  • Harmon: slot of $1M, add another $1.5M = $2.5M bonus, or around the end of the 1st comp round.
  • Sime: slot of $687k, add another $1M = $1.6M bonus, or around mid 2nd round
  • James: slot of $508k, add $1.5M = $2M bonus, or around the beginning of 2nd round.

Something like this.

I’ll post the 11th->20th round picks in another post.

Written by Todd Boss

July 14th, 2025 at 4:53 pm

Posted in Draft,Prospects

Eli Willits at 1-1 Quick Reaction: Shocker

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Willits goes 1-1 in a shocker. Photo via USA Basebal

Though I was traveling all weekend (bad timing to try to cover a Sunday evening event properly), I was able to tape and quickly watch the first 15 minutes or so of the 2025 draft to catch the top picks.

To say that the mock drafters were wrong all spring would be a huge understatement, starting at the top.

The Nats come out of nowhere to pick Eli Willits out of an Oklahoma HS at 1-1. Nobody all spring had Willits on the Nats’ radar, and I (and the MLB TV pundits) were in shock.

My quick thoughts: this really sends a weird message from the team. They just fired their long-standing GM presumably because they were disappointed in the direction of the team … then instead of drafting a polished college guy who might be able to contribute with the current set of stars we have, we draft the youngest ever player to go 1-1 in Willits, who reclassified from the 2026 class and who likely does appear in the majors for half a decade. Willits certainly was a highly ranked player, and ranked a lot higher on some teams’ draft boards simply because of his age. He’s 6′ 1″ 180 pure SS switch hitter whose father was a dirt-balling utility guy in the majors for a few years and who looked like a cut-rate Pete Rose at the plate.

Can’t say I like this pick, at all. I think Anderson is closer to a MLB rotation, I think Doyle could be in a bullpen role in the majors right now, and I think Holliday projects to be a far better player. I can only assume that they got a massive deal on the bonus, which will allow them to “stock up” on more prep kids in the next two days.

Does this pick (and its cascading effects on the rest of the draft) represent a monumental shift in the front office’s thinking now that Rizzo is gone? Maybe. But it certainly doesn’t portend well to the fanbase who have seen 5 straight losing seasons to pick a 17 yr old. Yes, I get it, you don’t draft for “need.” But you also don’t ignore context of where you are as a franchise and where you’re going. To me, this pick sends the following message: “We don’t think we’ve got it, even with Gore and Wood and Abrams and Crews and House, so we’re getting set for the future.” Especially if the pick was made to save dollars for more prep kids today and tomorrow.

Written by Todd Boss

July 14th, 2025 at 7:45 am

Posted in Draft,Prospects

Final Mocks and the eve of the 2025 Draft

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Here’s the very last post I’ll do on 1-1 predictions for this Draft season. I’ll include all the “final” mocks for our various favorite pundits, probably will have to add in more post-publishing, and will make a final prediction on the top 5.

I’m repeating this link block b/c shops are updating their Draft Board Ranks, as noted below

Final Mocks from our favorite pundits:

My current prediction for the top 5: More and more I think we’ll go Anderson, as does the rest of the industry. My final prediction:

  • Anderson, Doyle, Arquette, Holliday (lock here if he doesn’t go 1-1), Arnold

I’m repeating this analysis from before on the teams in the top 5 and their proclivities with their 1st rounders, but i’ve added to it a bit as it helps guide the predictions:

Post publishing Actual top 5 picks

ACTUAL PICKS post mocks: shockers and surprises. Willits, Bremner, Anderson, Holliday, Doyle.

Almost nobody got it right: only Longenhagen, who was one of the last people to publish, got Willits right amongst the major shops. Bravo.

Written by Todd Boss

July 13th, 2025 at 5:45 pm

Posted in Draft

Early July Draft Content Link dump and Latest 1-1 Analysis

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Will Rizzo’s firing tilt the scale towards Holliday? Photo via USA today

There’s no more games to play, no more box scores to hyper analyze. All we have now is a series of scouting/draft pundits calling sources and writing prediction pieces.

I’m repeating this link block b/c shops are updating their Draft Board Ranks, as noted below

Here’s a roundup of draft content I found interesting since the last time we posted, which was right after the CWS ended and we got our last look at potential 1-1 candidate Kade Anderson.

  • D1Baseball.com released their 1st, 2nd, 3rd team All-American lists. The 1st team is littered with upper-1st round names we’ve talked about all spring (Anderson, Doyle, Bodine, etc). top 5 pick Arnold didn’t make the 1st team cut, even though he might get drafted ahead of some who did. James Quinn-Irons from George Mason by way of South Lakes HS in Reston was named as a first teamer after slashing .415/.520/.726 for the season; bravo.
  • An interesting article in the Athletic on 6/27/25 by Sam Blum about the “fundamental problem” the MLB Draft Combine has, specifically that many of the top players have no incentive to show up. Blum reports from the combine that there’s almost zero scouts there despite hundreds of players doing drills and bp/pitching drills made for scouting opportunities. Why is this? Teams are almost entirely interested in exactly one thing here: MRIs of pitchers. Agents (Scott Boras the leading critic of course) point out that, while teams get MRIs they don’t get analysis, and they fear teams will misinterpret things and suddenly players drop out of the top 10 and out of guaranteed dollars. Fair points all.
  • Along with the release of their latest updated Top 250 board, MLBPipeline lists the “best Tools” in the draft. I found the analysis interesting for one reason: while each of the guys who were given “Best Pitch” by pitch type are names we know, Kade Anderson not only didn’t win one of the “best of” titles … he wasn’t even listed amongst those considered for ANY of the categories. Yet he’s the top ranked arm on the board. Meanwhile, they give “best power” to Holliday, over the all-or-nothing LaViolette even and despite him being a prep kid who probably doesn’t completely fill out for years. Something to think about.
  • MLBpipeline’s latest mock from Jonathan Mayo came along with all the 6/27/25 content (updated board, top tools, latest Mock). He goes Anderson, Doyle, Arquette, Holliday, Arnold. This, by the way, is the exact top 5 I’ve been predicting in the case where Anderson goes 1-1 instead of Holliday.
  • ESPN (Kiley McDaniel and staff) posted their 6/30/25 mock, which had a slight twist in that they allowed for trading picks AND the pundits pick who they think the teams SHOULD be picking, not who they likely well pick. It’s a subtle but important distinction that led to a slightly different mock look. They went Anderson, Doyle, Arnold, Holliday, JoJo Parker.
  • Baseball America’s v5.0 Mock Draft was released on 6/30/25 with info gleaned from the combine and the end of the college season. Anderson, Doyle, Arquette, Holliday, Willits
  • MLBPipeline’s 7/1/25 email newsletter (free to subscribe to) had a quick “What if Teams drafted for need” mock, and it looked slightly different than the rest of these mocks: Anderson, Arnold, Hernandez, Holliday, Doyle. Arquette drops way down this list.
  • Keith Law did a 7/2/25 chat (man, remember when everyone did weekly chats??) with a ton of draft questions and a ton of Nats questions about 1-1 in the wake of his updated and final Draft Board post on 7/1/25. Worth a read.
  • Baseball Prospect Journal did a staff mock on 7/3/25. I’m still up in the air about this source and its value; is it just a couple of baseball nerds like me, or do they actually have insight? they go Holliday, Anderson, Arquette, Willits, Arnold. They have Doyle dropping to 8th.
  • Obviously, the 7/6/25 news that the Nats have fired Mike Rizzo and Davey Martinez looms quite large over the draft preparations the team was making.
  • Baseball America held a podcast on 7/7/25 where they did reaction to Rizzo’s firing and its potential impact on the draft. They did mention one interesting tidbit; they said that Rizzo was more old-school than his scouting director and scouting staff, most of whom he hired away from more system-driven teams like Arizona and Baltimore. These guys are going to favor younger and toolsier players than Rizzo might, and it may tip the scale towards Holliday at 1-1.
  • Keith Law posted his Mock 3.0 just as I was publishing this post. Anderson, Doyle, Arquette, Holliday, and Willits. This is almost exactly who i’ve got if we go Anderson 1-1.

My current prediction for the top 5: More and more I think we’ll go Holliday

If we pick Holliday, the top 5 prediction is:

  • Holliday, Anderson, Arquette, Arnold, Willits.

If we pick Anderson, I think the top 5 goes like this:

  • Anderson, Doyle, Arquette, Holliday (lock here if he doesn’t go 1-1), Arnold

I’m repeating this analysis from before on the teams in the top 5 and their proclivities with their 1st rounders, but i’ve added to it a bit as it helps guide the predictions:

  1. Washington: likes “famous” guys and isn’t afraid to roll with Boras clients: this is the argument for Holliday. But, they love taking big body college arms with their first picks (a moniker that describes most of the 1st rounders in the Rizzo era), which screams either Anderson or Doyle. The post season performances of all three college arms re-configured where they stand; going into the playoffs it probably want Arnold-Doyle-Anderson. Coming out of the post-season, it’s Anderson-Arnold-Doyle. I believe Anderson has separated himself from the pack and is now a worthy 1-1 pick. We’d still get a haircut on him, which helps us later on.
  2. Angels: want quick to the majors college guys; they hyper promote and have had a draftee be first to debut for each draft class for 3 years running. Their last six 1st rounders have all been college players. This screams polished college arm, and Doyle seems closest to the majors. Like, Doyle could be in their bullpen in September. If Anderson is available they take him, otherwise Doyle.
  3. Seattle loves prep kids at the top; 5 of last 6 picks have been HSers, all bats, no prep arms. However, none of the analysts have them on a prep kid this year. Everyone has them on Arquette. It’s entirely possible they’re looking at the prep SS (Holliday, Willits, even Carson) and saying, “Arquette is 2yrs older and a ton better).
  4. Colorado can’t get FA pitchers to come to Denver, so they have to grow them. Their last six 1st rounders have all been college, and 3 of the last 4 are arms. I think they pick Arnold or Doyle, whoever’s there (likely Arnold). That being said, if Holliday is available, this is his likely floor due to the family connection in Colorado. So, its either Holliday or whatever arm is left.
  5. St. Louis has 4 straight college guys in 1st; I think they end up with Arnold, since it seems clear that Anderson and Arquette will be gone in any scenario. They (like the industry) seems to have soured on Doyle, so many have them plucking the next-best prep SS in Willits. If Arnold doesn’t go here, there’s a strong likelihood he drops nearly out of the top 10.

Written by Todd Boss

July 8th, 2025 at 8:42 am

Posted in Draft

June Draft Content review and Final 1-1 candidate stat check-in

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Like Crews before him, Anderson finishes off his college career with a title before getting picked by the Nats in the 1st. Maybe. Photo via MLB.com

Here’s our ninth check-in on the 1-1 candidates this spring. There’s not a ton of stat updating, since we’re down to the CWS with just a couple of 1-1 candidates active in Omaha, so this is mostly about discussing draft content as it has been released lately.

We’re still a few weeks away from the draft, which occurs in mid July at the All Star Game. Amazing to think we used to have this draft basically during the college playoffs. However, as you can see from some of the more recent mocks, we’re definitely starting to see some repeating predictions at the top.

Important Draft related news and notes, plus Mocks and Draft rankings that have published since our last posting, are listed below:

  • Baseball America released its v4.0 Mock Draft on 6/9/25: they go Holliday, Anderson, Arquette, Doyle, Willits. In the text they say the following: “Holliday, Willits and then Oregon State shortstop Aiva Arquette would be my favorites [to be picked by the Nationals], in that order.”
  • Baseball Prospect Journal is kind of a new shop that i’ve found recently; they’ve done a couple mocks already. Here’s their latest dated 6/9/25: Holliday, Anderson, Arquette, Arnold, Willits. Very similar to BA’s above.
  • Keith Law released his latest v2.0 Mock Draft on 6/12/25 with a surprise at top: Arquette, Doyle, Anderson, Holliday, Willits
  • MLBPipeline’s Jim Callis released his latest Mock on 6/12/25. Holliday, Anderson, Arnold, Hernandez, Carlson (?). He seems to think the Nats are down to either Holliday or Anderson.
  • Baseball America released a list of the 322 players signed up for the MLB Draft Combine, being held June 17-21 in Phoenix. Notable 1-1 candidates attending: Arnold, Doyle, Hernandez. Notable 1-1 candidates who are NOT going to attend? Holliday, Anderson, Arquette, Willits. Interesting. I wonder if its a gambit by Holliday in particular to not show up in order to prevent any team shenanigans from happening.
  • ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel released his v2.0 mock draft on 6/17/25: he goes Anderson, Doyle, Arnold, Holliday, then a huge shocker in JoJo Parker at #5, a player i’ve not even heard of throughout this entire process. Remember, McDaniel’s model highly overvalues “Future Value” or FV, and prep kids look a ton better in his ranks than college kids.
  • MLBPipeline’s Callis with his 6/19/25 mock: Holliday, Anderson, Arquette, Arnold, and Willits. In the last week he’s dropped both Hernandez and Carlson in favor of Arnold and Willits.
  • USA Today did a consolidated Mock by averaging the draft positions of a bunch of other pundits (most of whom are linked above) and came up with Holliday, Doyle, Arquette, Anderson, Arnold
  • BA released its “Draft Intel” notes article on 6/23/25, with a couple of nuggets on top candidates.
  • Baseball Prospect Journal released its v3.0 Mock Draft on 6/24/25. They go Anderson, Arnold, Arquette, Holliday, Willits. Clearly, if Holiday doesn’t got #1 overall, he isn’t getting by Colorado at #4 with the family connection.
  • Callis & Mayo did a back-and-forth mock on their MLBPipeline podcast on 6/24/25: Holliday, Anderson, Arquette, Arnold, Willits.

Draft Boards (not mocks): these are major shops Prospect Ranking lists, usually with Scouting reports, video, tool grades, etc.

Link Block for the top guys under 1-1 consideration

Prep Players who are in the running for 1-1:

Here’s some updated commentary on the players seemingly in the running; all four had significant post season stats to discuss:

  • Anderson threw the first game of the CWS against Arkansas and was glittering: 7ip 3 hits, 1r (on an inside FB that Arkansas’ light-hitting 1B turned on), 7/2 K/BB. Just 100 pitches to get through 7. If this was his last performance for scouts, he couldn’t have asked for much more. Then, when LSU made the final, Anderson got the ball on regular rest and threw what was both amazing and concerning: complete game 1-0 shutout, 3hitter. 10k/5bb … and 130 pitches. 130. He was north of 100 heading into the 8th but stayed in to the end. We discussed this in the comments already; will this make a difference in the Nats decision making? It will be curious to see how the pundits/mock drafters react, if at all. Season complete.
  • Arquette went 5-14 with a huge 9th inning homer in his final collegiate game in three CWS games. His only RBI was his solo shot, but he certainly finished on a high note. Season Complete.
  • Doyle Season Complete
  • Arnold: Season complete.

Prep kids:

  • Holliday: season complete.
  • Hernandez: season complete.
  • Willits: season complete.

My current prediction for the top 5: Despite pundits claiming the nats are considering basically 7-8 guys, I think its going to be either Anderson or Holliday.

If we pick Holliday, the top 5 prediction is:

  • Holliday, Anderson, Arquette, Arnold, Willits.

If however, the Nats go Anderson, then I think the draft goes like this:

  • Anderson, Doyle, Arquette, Holliday (lock here if he doesn’t go 1-1), Arnold

I’m repeating this analysis from before on the teams in the top 5 and their proclivities with their 1st rounders, but i’ve added to it a bit as it helps guide the predictions:

  1. Washington: likes “famous” guys and isn’t afraid to roll with Boras clients: this is the argument for Holliday. But, they love taking big body college arms with their first picks (a moniker that describes most of the 1st rounders in the Rizzo era), which screams either Anderson or Doyle. The post season performances of all three college arms re-configured where they stand; going into the playoffs it probably want Arnold-Doyle-Anderson. Coming out of the post-season, it’s Anderson-Arnold-Doyle. I believe Anderson has separated himself from the pack and is now a worthy 1-1 pick. We’d still get a haircut on him, which helps us later on.
  2. Angels: want quick to the majors college guys; they hyper promote and have had a draftee be first to debut for each draft class for 3 years running. Their last six 1st rounders have all been college players. This screams polished college arm, and Doyle seems closest to the majors. Like, Doyle could be in their bullpen in September. If Anderson is available they take him, otherwise Doyle.
  3. Seattle loves prep kids at the top; 5 of last 6 picks have been HSers, all bats, no prep arms. However, none of the analysts have them on a prep kid this year. Everyone has them on Arquette. It’s entirely possible they’re looking at the prep SS (Holliday, Willits, even Carson) and saying, “Arquette is 2yrs older and a ton better).
  4. Colorado can’t get FA pitchers to come to Denver, so they have to grow them. Their last six 1st rounders have all been college, and 3 of the last 4 are arms. I think they pick Arnold or Doyle, whoever’s there (likely Arnold). That being said, if Holliday is available, this is his likely floor due to the family connection in Colorado. So, its either Holliday or whatever arm is left.
  5. St. Louis has 4 straight college guys in 1st; I think they end up with whoever from Arquette, Arnold, Doyle, or Anderson is available here. However, they (like the industry) seems to have soured on Doyle, so many have them plucking the next-best prep SS in Willits.

Written by Todd Boss

June 25th, 2025 at 9:16 am

Posted in Draft

Post CWS Super Regionals Check-in with 1-1 candidates and Draft link content

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Could Kade Anderson push his way into 1-1 discussion all of a sudden? Photo via MLB.com

Here’s our eighth check-in on the 1-1 candidates this spring. This week summarizes the post season play for our top prospects (conference tourneys, regionals, and super regionals) and talks about the mocks and other draft content that’s popped up lately. High Schoolers are done, with zero new news to report about the top prep candidates.

Important Draft related news and notes, plus Mocks and Draft rankings that have published since our last posting, are listed below:

  • Keith Law at the Athletic released his 2025 Draft board top 100 ranking on 5/21/25. He ranks them Holliday, Doyle, Arnold, Arquette, Houston. He has Hernandez all the way down at #21.
  • Law then held a Chat on May 22nd where we got his thoughts on some 1-1 related stuff.
  • ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel posted his latest mock draft on 5/28/25. He goes Holliday, Doyle, Anderson, Arquette, and Willits. He has Hernandez falling to #9, but also admits he could go anywhere inbetween.
  • Baseball America released their 2025 Draft Top 500, adding another 100 names from their April edition. This is probably the last draft board they’ll release. They’ve updated their ranks, which i’ve cross-correlated in the player block below. They now go Holliday, Hernandez, Willits, Arquette, Arnold.
  • MLBPipeline updated their Draft board on 5/28/25, expanding it to 200. There’s been significant movement in the top 10, with Anderson flying up the board from #9 a month ago to #3 now. Top 5: Holliday, Hernandez, Anderson, Arnold, Willits. As with the BA update, all the MLB ranks below are updated to be current.
  • MLBPiepline’s Jim Callis came out with a new mock draft on 5/29/25: he claims the Nats are following 7-8 players but also seems confident with Holliday at 1-1. His top 5: Holliday, Doyle, Anderson, Arnold, Willits.
  • MLBPipeline’s Jonathan Mayo then popped up with his latest mock on 6/5/25 with a big shocker at the top: He thinks Washington is now going LSU’s Anderson 1-1. top 5: Anderson, Doyle, Arquette, Holliday, Arnold. Very college heavy, all four major D1 players off board by 5th pick. Interesting.

Aggregation Stats for College Baseball for Reference:

Draft Boards (not mocks): these are major shops Prospect Ranking lists, usually with Scouting reports, video, tool grades, etc.

Link Block for the top guys under 1-1 consideration

Prep Players who are in the running for 1-1:

Here’s some updated commentary on the players seemingly in the running; all four had significant post season stats to discuss:

  • Arnold got knocked around a bit by Duke in the ACC tournament ( 5ip, 5runs), then got the win against Mississippi State with a 7ip 13K 119 pitch appearance in the Regionals. FSU won their regional, so we got one last start from Arnold in the super regional losing effort: 6.2, 1R, 6 hits, 9/1 K/BB on 113 pitches. Can’t ask for much more than that.
  • Arquette had two weeks off thanks to Oregon State’s lack of a conference tournament, then went to town in the Regional, going 9-23 with a homer in the finale as OSU got stretched as a regional host but advanced. In the super regional: 5-13 with a walk and a bunch of runs scored; not bad.
  • Doyle had an abbreviated start in the SEC tournament against Texas, going just 3.2 and giving up 6 hits/4 runs. He needed 79 pitches to not even get out of the 4th. Then in regionals, Tennessee threw him in the first game oddly, where he predictably dominated Miami of Ohio with 11Ks over 6.2 innings for the win. Ok, so far so good … but then Tennessee puts him BACK on the mound in the regional final to close it out and he’s throwing 99 on two days rest in basically the highest leverage situation he’s ever faced as a player. Not. Good. I’d be scared to death he just did serious arm damage to himself. He’ll get another start in four days. Finally in the Super Regional he had to go against Arkansas, a team that shelled him earlier in the year … and he got hit again in his final start: 3.2 5h 5r, 2WP, 1HBP, and yanked in the 4th. Not a great look for evaluators getting their final look at the guy, and I think his chances of going 1-1 are finished.
  • Anderson got the start in the SEC tournament opener and dominated Texas A&M, 6ip, 12Ks and got lifted with just 84 pitches. Then in the regional he went game 2 against Dallas Baptist and threw an absolute gem: 7ip, 4hits, 0 runs 11/2 K/BB on 106 pitches. In the super Regional game one, Anderson got hit: 7r (6 earned) on 9 hits in 7ip .. however its worth noting that LSU was up 10-1 by the time Anderson gave up these runs. It’s entirely possible he just cruised through the last two innings to give the bullpen a break. He’s the only one of these players to make to Omaha.

Prep kids:

  • Holliday: season complete.
  • Hernandez: season complete.
  • Willits: season complete.

The Race for 1-1 status: I still think we’re on Holliday. Anderson has clearly supplanted both Arnold and Doyle in the “big three college lefties” ranking, but I don’t think its enough to get past Holliday.

So my current top 5 prediction: Holliday, Anderson, Hernandez, Doyle, Arquette.

Written by Todd Boss

June 9th, 2025 at 8:42 am

Posted in Draft,Prospects

Fourteen week Check-in with 1-1 Draft Candidates

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Arnold seems like a lock at this point for the top 5; would the Nats pluck him for 1-1? Photo via FSU sports page

Here’s our seventh check-in on the 1-1 candidates this spring. We’re at the end of week 14 of the college season, which is also the end of the regular season for the major conferences. Next week is conference tournaments, then we get the field of 64 and regionals. We’ll continue to have stat updates but they’ll likely be tied to post-season performances going forward.

Important Draft related news and notes, plus Mocks and Draft rankings that have published since our last posting, are listed below:

  • MLBPipeline’s Jim Callis published his first official Mock Draft of the season on 5/6/25. He goes Holliday, Doyle, Anderson, Hernandez, and Arnold. Highest i’ve seen either Doyle or especially Anderson.
  • Keith Law at the Athletic released his first Mock draft on 5/7/25. He goes Holliday, Doyle, Arquette, Arnold, and Witherspoon (?), who i’ve not ever mentioned/studied once in this series. He’s Oklahoma’s Friday night RHP starter (sound familiar?).
  • Baseball America Mock Draft 3.0 on 5/12/25. They go Holliday, Arquette, Hernandez, Doyle, Arnold. Pretty high for Arquette, but more in line with my current predictions (see the bottom).
  • ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel posted a “mini-mock” and his top 150 list on 5/14/25. Of course his top 5 in the mock didn’t match his ranks. Mock went Holliday, Arnold, Hernandez, Doyle, Anderson. His ranks go Arnold, Willits, Holliday, Hernandez, Carlson. He loves the prep kids in FV.
  • MLBPipeline’s Jonathan Mayo posted his latest Mock draft on 5/15/25. Holliday, Arnold, Doyle, Arquette, Anderson. The MLB guys clearly like Anderson.

Aggregation Stats for College Baseball for Reference:

Link Block for the top guys under 1-1 consideration

Prep Players who are in the running for 1-1:

Prospects guys now removed from 1-1 discussion at this point. I’m just leaving their ranks at this point for space considerations.

Here’s some updated commentary on the players seemingly in the running.

  • Arnold had a quality start in Berkeley (you know, Cal-Berkeley, a member of the “Atlantic Coast” Conference), then got roughed up by #4 UNC in his final regular season start, giving up 4 runs in 5 IP. FSU is likely to be a top 8 seed, which means Arnold probably gets at least three more starts (ACC tournament, Regionals, and Super-Regionals) before FSU is likely done; hopefully they make the CWS for even more looks.
  • Arquette had a decent series against Long Beach State for his top-5 ranked OSU team, and his performance seems to have reached its stability point for the season. He’s now at .348/.473/.676 from .351/.472/.701 two weeks ago, almost identical numbers across the board. He seems like a lock for the top 5, but seems out of the running for 1-1 to the Nats.
  • LaViolette finally gets “cut” from this discussion list. I just don’t see him supplanting the college guys on this list for 1-1 consideration, and Callis’ mock has him nearly out of the top 10.
  • Doyle remains on this list to continue discussing now that MLBpipeline has both him and Anderson jumping Arnold in his 5/6/25 mock. He pitched amazingly well to shut down Vandy two weeks ago, 7ip 3h 0r 12K. Then he got shelled in his final regular season start against top-ranked Arkansas: 4 2/3, 11 hits (!), 8 runs. Not the lasting impression to leave with scouts. Luckily he’ll have a couple post-season starts to rebound.
  • Anderson and Doyle both sit near the top of the national K/9 ranks, and had to face down two great teams to end the season. Against #1 Arkansas, Anderson went 5 2/3r, 10/1 K/BB and gave up 2 runs. not bad. Then to finish the season at South Carolina, Anderson went 6 2/3rds and gave up just one run. Definitely finished strong, but he’s 3rd out of 3 top LHP college pitchers on most boards apparently.

Prep kids: Not much news this cycle; most Prep HS schedules are starting to wind down. In fact, I have zero updates on any of the top three prep kids

  • Holliday
  • Hernandez
  • Willits

The Race for 1-1 status: More and more I’m thinking the college arms are not in contention, while we’re seeing fast risers from the prep ranks. I now think the Nats are down to one of 3 guys: Arnold, Hernandez, and Holliday. I think they’re going to end up with Holliday.

In Week 12, I reviewed each of the top 5 teams, discussing their draft proclivities in more detail, which leads me to these guesses as to who they’ll draft. Here’s how I think they’ll pick, assuming we go Holliday 1-1.

  • Angels: close to majors, college guys: Arnold or Doyle. Maybe Arquette
  • Seattle: top-end Prep kids: Willits or more likely Hernandez
  • Colorado: college arms: Doyle or Arnold if available
  • St. Louis: college bats: LaViolette, Arquette more likely.

So my current top 5: Holliday, Arnold, Hernandez, Doyle, Arquette.

Written by Todd Boss

May 19th, 2025 at 8:23 am

Posted in Draft,Prospects

Twelve Week Check-in with 1-1 Candidates for 2025 Draft

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Could Eli Willits really go top? Photo via USA Baseball

Here’s our sixth check-in on the 1-1 candidates.

Important Draft related news and notes that have published since our last posting (Note: since i’m doing these every 2-week posts and linking to mocks as they happen, i’m going to abandon my typical annual “Mock draft collection” post. Or maybe i’ll throw it up right before the draft).

  • ProspectsLive posted its updated 250 Draft Prospects on 4/21/25. Top 5 go Arnold, Hernandez, Carlson, Holliday, LaViolette. All the rest of the top 10 are in our link block, so no surprises. I think they have Carlson too high, but can’t quibble otherwise. Detailed scouting reports on each player are here as well, and i’ve updated the link blocks below with direct links and updated ranks.
  • Baseball America’s Carlos Collazo wrote an interesting piece titled the “8 MLB Draft prospects who could go 1-1,” illustrating just how wide open this is, which of course supports why we’re keeping tabs on so many players. His analysis mirrors the list of players i’m tracking, and anyone not in his top 8 I’m dropping off the check in list.
  • Baseball America did a podcast on 4/25/25 ahead of the release of its second staff mock draft. Last time their staff member chose Hernandez 1-1; this time a BA writer took Willits, saying it came down to Willits or Arquette for him.
  • Two of the guys we’re covering here (Doyle and Anderson) faced off as Tennessee visited LSU on 4/25/25 in a battle of top 10 teams (LSU is ranked #6, Tennessee #7 by d1baseball as of gametime). I’ll discuss more about their outings below. However the game itself was pretty amazing: LSU went into the bottom of the ninth down 3-0 and scored 6 runs to win it, including a 450+ dead-center 3-run walk off homer from their best hitter Jared Jones.
  • MLPPipeline finally released an updated to its top 150 Draft board; it was pretty dated with ranks that were done in December, and we saw some significant movement. I have updated the below ranks for the updated data and wrote separately about the update and the accompanying podcast, which had several very interesting nuggets of info. I’m also going to seriously cull the below list of actively tracked players because of it.
  • ProspectsLive released its Mock Draft v2.0 on 4/30/25. They went Holliday, Arnold, Hernandez, Arquette, Willits. I can’t argue with this from a draft ranks order, but the match with the teams to their proclivities in the draft doesn’t add up; more on that at the bottom.
  • BA posted their updated top 400 on 4/30/25. There’s a slight bit of movement in the top 10 but they still have top 3 as Arnold, Holliday, and Hernandez. I’ve updated the ranks in the player snippets below but eliminated the link since its all in one place now.
  • BleacherReport’s Joel Reuter’s 4/25/25 Mock draft has the Nats going conservative. top 5 in the mock: Arnold, Arquette, Hernandez, Holliday, Houston.
  • Kiley McDaniel posted his scouting reports on the top draft candidates all in one place on 4/24/25. He also posted video snippets of the top players on his twitter feed. I’ll add his commentary to the prep players below.
  • Just as i published this on 5/5/25, MLBPipeline guys published an “Odds to go 1-1” post. Holliday, Hernandez, and Arnold. It’s basically a transcript of their podcast last week that I quoted elsewhere.

Aggregation Stats for College Baseball for Reference:

Link Block for the top guys under 1-1 consideration

Prep Players who are in the running for 1-1:

Prospects guys we’re removing from 1-1 discussion for now and why. We’ve removed a ton of names that have been in discussion this spring.

  • Cam Canarella, CF, Clemson. Clemson stats & box scores, MLBPipeline rpt (#38), BA (#25) His star has dropped since mid 2024, now projecting as a mid-1st rounder.
  • Gavin Kilen, 2B, Tennessee. Tennessee stats & box scores, MLBPipeline rpt (#16), BA (#18)He started very hot for Tennessee but is an end-of-the-1st rounder, 5’11” 2B guy. He also pulled a hamstring and hasn’t played for weeks, torpedoing his 1-1 chances.
  • Devin Taylor, OF, Indiana. Indiana stats & box scores, MLBPipeline rpt (#23), BA (#38). solid offensively but fringy defensively, so moving him down. #6 on ProspectsLive, so still some hope there.
  • Brendan Summerhill, OF, Arizona. UofA stats and box scores, MLBPipeline rpt (#22), BA (#24); he was top 10 fringe and started hot, but broke his hand in mid March and will miss a chunk of the season, crushing his chances of going higher. Was top 10, now in the 20s.
  • Tyler Bremner, RHP, UC Santa Barbara. UCSB stats & boxes, MLBPipeline rpt (#17), BA (#13). He just has not impressed against sub-standard competition like he should have, and is no longer on anyone’s radar for the top of the draft. #8 on Prospectslive. Dropped all the way to #17 by MLB; was in their top 5 to start season.
  • Kayson Cunningham, SS, Johnson HS (TX). MLB (#6), BA (#9), ProspectsLive (#10). He’s a seriously good prospect of course, but there’s 3 prep guys clearly ahead of him, so dropping him out of analysis.
  • Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee. Tenn stats & box scores, MLB (#10), BA (#11), PL (#10+). Despite a massive jump on MLB’s list (from #75 to #10), I don’t see him as a realistic candidate for 1-1 anymore. If the team wants a college LHP starter … they’re taking Arnold.
  • Kade Anderson, LHP, LSU. LSU Stats & box scores, MLB (#9), BA (#12), PL (#10+). Jumped from #44 to #9 on MLB’s latest draft, but despite excellent showing in 2025 he’s #3 out of #3 college LHP starters, and the Nats aren’t going to pass on Arnold or Doyle for him, so i’m going to stop hyper-tracking.
  • Marek Houston, SS, Wake Forest. WFU Stats & box scores, MLB (#12), BA (#7), PL (#10+). Jumped up a bit in the latest MLB ranks, but if the Nats are going to take a college SS … they’re taking Arquette at this point.
  • Billy Carlson, SS/RHP Corona HS (CA). MLB (#6), BA (#8), PL (#3). Despite increasing his profile all year (in part due to the fact that he plays on the same HS team as Hernandez), Carlson is like the 3rd best prep SS out of three, and for similar logic to Doyle/Anderson … if the Nats want a prep SS with a slick glove, they’ll be picking Willits.

Here’s some updated commentary.

  • LaViolette‘s TAMU team had two tough series, at #1 Texas and hosting #2 LSU. He got just one hit in each weekend series. His slash line took a dive as a result and has gone down to .276/.437/.593 (two weeks ago it was .307/.468/.693). He’s running out of time to impress the decision makers, and more and more is looking like a down-ballot draftee.
  • Arnold had two great starts over the past two weeks against top competition. He went into #17 Louisville and went 7 2/3 11/1 K/BB, gave up 2 runs. Then with FSU hosting Clemson last weekend in a battle of top 5 teams, he limited Clemson to 1 run in 6 ip despite being rather wild on the night (3 walks and 3 HBP). No word on whether Nats brass was at this start, but it would have made sense to get another look against decent competition. He continues to keep himself in the 1-1 discussion.
  • Arquette got “the visit” from Nats brass for their 11th weekend visit. Here’s the problem with Arquette succinctly stated: if you want a big power hitting SS who won’t stay on the position and has to move to 3B, then Holliday is a younger, better, more upside version. So, to me that always means Arquette is going to be “behind” Holliday if this is the stature of player the Nats are looking at. In the meantime, his slash line has cooled a bit in the last two weeks, down to .351/.472/.701 from .383/.497/.780 as OSU visited Oregon two weekends ago in a battle of two top 10 teams.
  • Doyle was absolutely amazing in a high-profile showdown at LSU on 4/25/25, going 6 2/3rds and giving up just one hit to #6 LSU in their bandbox of a stadium. 6/3 K/BB so not nearly as many Ks as normal, but he made himself some money today. Is there a world where Doyle is picked above Arnold? Maybe, but it is fading fast. Last weekend weather issues caused him to pitch twice in two innings against Arnold, something scouts and MLB execs probably cringed at.
  • Anderson looked nearly as good as his counterpart Doyle on 4/25/25: 7ip, 2runs, 11Ks. Both guys took no decisions. But, as per above, neither Doyle and Anderson are getting picked over Arnold at this point, so we’ll focus on the top guys from here on out.

Prep kids: I’ll paraphrase McDaniel’s scouting report for the prep kids, in lieu of any actual news.

  • Holliday: Word on the street is that Holliday had a hitch in his swing last year that he’s fixed, but that he’ll project as a strikeout happy, 65-grade power hitter as a pro. He’s described as an above average defender with a plus arm, and should be a top-level 3B prospect. McDaniel isn’t sold on him as 1-1.
  • Hernandez; sits mid-upper 90s, hits 100+. Plus-Plus changeup. has worked on his curve and its now above average; slider is his 4th pitch and needs work. The knock on him is that his FB is straight and will become more hittable if he loses velocity. 2nd-round talent as a 3B hitter too.
  • Carlson: turns 19 a few weeks after draft, a negative for many teams. 80-grade arm at short. has a huge swing right now, will need some fixing as a pro, but here you’re drafting for the floor of a solid pro SS with all the defensive tools.
  • Willits: hit over power, plus speed, plus defender, true SS. Solid contact, switch hitter who’s better from the left hand side. All plus tools. Super young, reclassified from 2026 class. Again mentions that many teams really over-value the age at draft.

The Race for 1-1 status: More and more I’m thinking the college arms are not in contention, while we’re seeing fast risers from the prep ranks. I now think the Nats are seriously looking at Willits for 1-1. However, they also can dream on Holliday and Hernandez. In a draft where the college guys aren’t blowing your socks off, you roll the dice on upside.

The next four teams picking are the Angels, Seattle, Colorado, and St Louis. Just off the top of my head, i these teams seem to have a drafting history like this:

  • Angels: want quick to the majors college guys; they hyper promote and have had a draftee be first to debut for each draft class for 3 years running. Their last six 1st rounders have all been college players. This screams polished college arm; aka Jamie Arnold.
  • Seattle loves prep kids at the top; 5 of last 6 picks have been HSers, all bats no prep arms. I’ll bet they take either Willits or Holliday if they’re there, but may not be able to pass on Hernandez.
  • Colorado can’t get FA pitchers to come to Denver, so they have to grow them. Their last 6 1st rounders have all been college, and 3 of the last 4 are arms. I think they pick Arnold or Doyle, whoever’s there.
  • St. Louis has 4 straight college guys in 1st; i’ll bet they are dreaming on LaViolette.

So my current top 5: Holliday, Arnold, Hernandez, Doyle, LaViolette.

Written by Todd Boss

May 5th, 2025 at 9:16 am

Posted in Draft,Prospects

MLB Pipeline drops updated ranks and interesting Draft nuggets

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I’m not sure how I feel about drafting a kid whose Twitter profile picture is this. Photo via Ethan Holliday’s X/Twitter account

The big news of today is the MLB Pipeline crew updating its Draft Ranks for the 2025 draft for the first time in months, with significant movement both within the top 10 and throughout.

The updated board is here. You can see some of the movement, but notably:

  • Ethan Holliday remains #1.
  • Arnold remains #3
  • Seth Hernandez up to #2 from #5
  • LaViolette dropped from 2 to 7, Bremner dropped all the way to 17
  • Willits up significantly.
  • Both Anderson and Doyle now in the top 10.

However, what I want to talk about was some of the interesting draft nuggets and other information points that the team talked about in the accompanying podcast that dropped last night. It’s a good listen if you’re hyper-into this stuff like I am this year.

I listened to it so you don’t have to, but here’s some of the interesting stuff I heard.

  • The analysts consensus is that the 1-1 pick is now coming down to one of just three players: Holliday, Arnold, and Hernandez.
  • The group generally thinks at this point the odds for 1st overall are Holliday 50-60%, Hernandez 20%, Arnold 10%, Arquette 3-5%, and the Field 3-5%.
  • By new draft guidelines, If a player attends the pre-draft scouting combine and takes a medical physical, teams cannot offer that player more than a 25% cut on the slot value. So 1-1 is worth $11.1M dollars; 75% of that figure is $8.3M. I was not aware of this rule. And, it really limits how much of a deal you can cut at 1-1. If everyone takes the physical, nobody’s taking a $7M bonus deal at 1-1 to give the Nats millions of dollars to spend later on.
  • The group suspects that, since the industry knows this is a weaker draft at the top that most of the top players will take physicals to force teams’ hands and force them to guarantee at least 75% of that value.
  • Burns and Condon both got $9.25M bonuses last year; Skenes and Crews got $9.2 and $9M in 2023. It seems unlikely that the Nats will have to go much higher (if at all higher) than this threshold for one of these top guys this year.
  • The group believes that the Nats, and Mike Rizzo in particular, are just the right combination of risk acceptance profile to roll the dice on being the first team to ever take a prep RHP 1-1.
  • Direct quote, “The Nationals are a ceiling organization, not a floor organization.”
  • They talked about how Rizzo is a scouting-first guy (not analytics-first, which point to younger players and safer college picks). If Rizzo thinks Hernandez is the best player, Rizzo is going to take him. Hernandez, by far, has the highest ceiling of any player in this draft; Holliday is more about the track record, and Arnold is more about floor.
  • This seems to me to be a distinct break in the Rizzo regime’s approach. If you look at the nature of our drafts for the first decade of Rizzo’s tenure, it was very college-heavy, barely ever taking a prep kid … except at the top or with major overslot deals.
  • There have been teams/times where a prep RHP came really close to going 1-1. Hunter Greene was in serious consideration for 1-1 in 2017 before Minnesota took Royce Lewis. They told a story about Rizzo at Arizona taking Max Scherzer in 2006 as a prep RHP: they drafted 11th but Rizzo had Scherzer #1 on his board.
  • (speaking of the 2006 draft: Longoria, Kershaw, and Scherzer all picked in the top 11).
  • Hernandez is not just a RHP: he’s also a significant hitting prospect. He’s a major power hitter who bats ahead of fellow 1st round pick Carlson in his high school lineup. So, there’s always some fallback options there and/or some two-way options (can’t see the Nats doing that honestly).
  • The Nats decision makers were in Oregon State to watch Arquette last weekend. We know they went to Florida State a few weeks back and saw Arnold get shelled. The entire industry was at the NHSI game where Hernandez shined, and the entire industry was at the big Oklahoma 3-team showdown where Holliday’s team played. So they’re covering their bases.
  • Both Arquette and Holliday … are represented by Scott Boras. And the Nats take a lot of Boras clients.

Anyway, I came away from this podcast with the distinct idea that the Nats are going with either Holliday or Hernandez as of this juncture. Lets hope we get some more information on both players before the draft.

Written by Todd Boss

April 30th, 2025 at 9:38 am

Posted in Draft,Prospects

Ten Week Check-in with 1-1 Candidates for 2025 Draft

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Here’s our fifth check-in on the 1-1 candidates.

Important Draft related news and notes that have published since our last posting:

  • MLBPipeline staff did a mini “mock draft” on 4/10/25 talking just about top 10 picks, and there’s absolutely a shift in the discussion. Three of the top 5 college candidates we’ve been tracking aren’t even in their top 10 as they have pivoted to prep players. The time tracking the likes of LaViolette and Bremner may be done.
  • The National High School Invitational (NHSI) event happened in this cycle, and included Corona HS with its two upper 1st round prospects. Read below for a deep-dive into Seth Hernandez in particular.
  • D1Baseball reordered their ranks for just college players and now go Arnold, Arquette, Houton, LaViolette, and Kade Anderson, who we’ll start tracking.
  • BA released their Mock Draft v2.0 on 4/14/25. Following along with their scouting report of Hernandez NHSI, they’ve got Hernandez first, saying its looking like the perfect set of circumstances to have a prep RHP go 1-1.
  • The Athletic’s Keith Law released his top 50 Draft prospects on 4/15/25: Holliday, Doyle, Arnold, Arquette, Houston. Hernandez is all the way down at #21, which is way, way out of line with the rest of the industry. But, his ranks also support Doyle’s meteoric rise.
  • Law also wrote a longer form analysis of Arnold, Carlson, and Hernandez in his Draft notes article on 4/15/25. Basically said Arnold won’t get out of the top 3, while he’s not sold on Hernandez (more on that below).
  • Kiley McDaniel published his updated Draft class ranks on 4/15/25. True to form, Kiley has some prep kids way, way up there, though he leads the line with Arnold. Remember; McDaniel’s methodology is all driven around projected Future Value, so he tends to dream on prep kids and their ceiling instead of thinking about risk. He’s got Eli Willits, a prep SS in Oklahoma, #2 on his list, primarily with an age-based analysis (he’s super young), which is crazy. McDaniel does say one interesting thing: Analytics-heavy teams like Willits and Carlson, while old-school scouting/eyeball teams like Holliday. Which do you think the Nats are? More on this later.
  • McDaniel also posted a ranking of the College Aces on 4/18/25 … with rankings that do not align with the draft ranks. McDaniel explains this in the preamble; the ranking (which has Doyle top and Arnold 4th) is who is performing NOW, versus his draft class ranks (where Arnold is top and Doyle is 12th) where he’s projecting “Future Value” of the player in the majors. Confused?
  • Two of the biggest prep prospects (Holliday and Willits) played last weekend: here’s Keith Law’s scouting report. I’ll reference it below for the two players.

Aggregation Stats for College Baseball for Reference:

Link Block for the top guys under 1-1 consideration. I’ve got this whittled down a bit. Note: the MLBPipeline report rank is a bit out of date at this point, being months old. I’m sure they’ll update it soon, and when they do i’ll re-capture the updated ranks. There’s just no way, for example, that LaViolette is still #2 or Doyle is #75 right now. The BA list was updated 3/26/25 and is better.

Prep Players who are in the running for 1-1:

Prospects guys we’re removing from 1-1 discussion for now and why. I’ll be paring the above list soon enough; there’s too many names in the mix to track every couple of weeks.

Here’s some updated commentary.

  • LaViolette: continues to improve his slash line, now hitting .307/.468/.693 (two weeks ago he was at .294/.451/.633). He destroyed Arkansas pitching on the road last weekend, going 5-12 with 4 homers and 3 walks and now has 15 dongs for the year. Is it too little too late for him to go 1-1? I think so; the narrative has already been written for him this year, but man someone’s going to get a huge bat in the first 10 picks or so. Can you imagine this guy in Colorado?
  • Arnold: We got a little bit of context for Arnold’s dip in performance; his missed start was due to a flu or illness, and he was weak for the next couple of weeks, which led to those iffy starts. He bounced back with a solid beatdown of Va Tech on 4/12 (7ip 4hits 1r 9/2 K/BB), and then his start last weekend was cancelled in the wake of the Florida State shootings. Season line: 8 starts, 4-1, 2.40 ERA, 0.97 whip, .177 BAA. 57/15 K/BB in 41 innings. I’d like to see him going deeper in games; he’s averaging just 5IP a start.
  • Bremner: gave up 4 in 6ip to UC Riverside while striking out 10 and throwing 107 pitches, then 3 in 7IP against Cal Poly while striking out 13 … and throwing 119 pitches! 119 pitches. In April. Not good. I just don’t like the hittability of Bremner, and he’s not dominating good but not the SEC teams.
  • Arquette blew up in the last two weeks, raising his slash line from .321/.439/.604 to .383/.497/.780. Unfortunately, he did this on the back of a 3-game sweep of one of the worst teams in D1 Cal State Northridge, against whom he had a 9-13 series with 4 homers and another 4 walks. That’s one way to jack up your seasonal batting average 60 points in three days. To be fair, the weekend before OSU visited Cal State Fullerton and he blasted 2 dongs there as well; he now has 15 for the season. He’s clearly a top 5 pick; but is he 1-1?
  • Doyle continues to pile on stats against top teams. He took the ball against #11 Ole Miss two weeks ago and put up a heck of a line: 8 1/3rd, 3 hits, 2 walks, 14 Ks and got lifted when he walked a guy with a one run lead in the 9th. He was at 111 pitches at that point … and probably saved his arm in the process. A week later against the solid but not top 10 Kentucky he had a more typical ace line: 7ip, 4hits, 2Runs, 9/1 K/BB, pulled at 101 pitches. For the season: 7-1 with 2.48 ERA, 0.83 whip, 104/17 K/BB in 58IP. That’s a 16 K/9 rate for an SEC pitcher.
  • Houston: first time on this list, lets take a look. For the season he’s slashing .335/.449/.589. He’s got more walks than strikeouts, has 10 homers. He has cooled significantly from earlier in the season, when he was maintaining .400 BA well into the college season, and just finished up a series against Boston College where he went just 2-10. Scouts are watching every move now. We’ll see how long Houston stays in the rarified air of possible 1-1.
  • Anderson: first time on this list, so we’ll catch up with his full season. He’s another lefty starter; apparently 2025 is going to include three front-line left handed starters in the top 10-15 picks. Anderson as of this writing has a 3.92 ERA for the year but is getting attention for 91Ks in 57 ip, Doyle-like numbers. He’s LSU’s Friday night starter, so he gets the ball against the toughest opponents. Last two weeks; he gave up 6 runs in 4 2/3rds in a loss at #9 Auburn, then he gave up 5 in 5 2/3rds hosting #10 Alabama in a no-decision. My first time looking at his stuff and while I see lots of whiffs, I also see lots of runs. He may not be long for this analysis.
  • Holliday wasn’t as impressive in his big OK prep school showdown as he may have wanted: Law reports that his BP wasn’t impressive and he waved at a couple of curves in the games that call into question his approach. His defense was improved though and Law threw out a Corey Seager comp, and Law thinks he could go “anywhere from 1st to 6th overall.” My thinking right now is this: If you want a bit of a project who could have a superstar SS/cleanup hitter ceiling, and if you trust your player development camp on the hitting side, you draft Holliday. If you’re the Nats, you let someone else assume that much risk.
  • Hernandez threw a CG in the NHSI quarter finals with this line: 7ip, 3H 1R, 0ER, 11/1 K/BB. Baseball America wrote it up and he sounds amazing: sitting mid 90s, hitting 99 in the 7th inning, showed a 70-grade changeup. There’s a ton of video showing dozens of pitches at the BA link; he has a slow, deliberate motion, hides the ball well, throws 4 pitches, got 10 swing and misses off the change. Could he go 1-1? Law’s analysis was a little less rosy, noting that Hernandez is generating velocity more with his arm than body (a huge red flag for future arm/shoulder injuries)
  • Carlson: in the same NHSI event, he… did not show up at the plate. He played SS and batted 5th behind cleanup-hitter Hernandez and went a combined 2-12 with 2 singles, a walk, and a sac fly. Their team Corona (which headed into the event the #1 ranked team in the country by every major rankings shop MaxPreps, PBR, PG, BA, SI) lost in the semis. Law’s analysis was more focused on defense, where he described Carlson as a “wizard on defense,” which bodes well and continues to support Carlson for at least the 1st round.
  • Cunningham: no news.
  • Willits is super young (he reclassified from 2206 class), which makes him a darling of some scouting projections (you’re drafting a top talent at 17yrs 7months). He’s a 6’1″ baseball rat from a baseball family who switch hits and has a 60 hit tool and 55s across the board otherwise. Law liked him all around, but the lack of power projection will keep him lower than his fellow prep hitters. But, he projects very highly with bat-to-ball skills. I don’t think he’s anywhere in the conversation for 1-1 but he is worth mentioning b/c analytical models like McDaniel’s loves him for his already high floor.

The Race for 1-1 status: I think the Nats have four names in the mix: Arnold, Doyle, Holliday, and Hernandez. If I had to guess today, i’d say they go Doyle.

Written by Todd Boss

April 21st, 2025 at 9:55 am

Posted in Draft,Prospects

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