Nationals Arm Race

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Post CWS Super Regionals Check-in with 1-1 candidates and Draft link content

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Could Kade Anderson push his way into 1-1 discussion all of a sudden? Photo via MLB.com

Here’s our eighth check-in on the 1-1 candidates this spring. This week summarizes the post season play for our top prospects (conference tourneys, regionals, and super regionals) and talks about the mocks and other draft content that’s popped up lately. High Schoolers are done, with zero new news to report about the top prep candidates.

Important Draft related news and notes, plus Mocks and Draft rankings that have published since our last posting, are listed below:

  • Keith Law at the Athletic released his 2025 Draft board top 100 ranking on 5/21/25. He ranks them Holliday, Doyle, Arnold, Arquette, Houston. He has Hernandez all the way down at #21.
  • Law then held a Chat on May 22nd where we got his thoughts on some 1-1 related stuff.
  • ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel posted his latest mock draft on 5/28/25. He goes Holliday, Doyle, Anderson, Arquette, and Willits. He has Hernandez falling to #9, but also admits he could go anywhere inbetween.
  • Baseball America released their 2025 Draft Top 500, adding another 100 names from their April edition. This is probably the last draft board they’ll release. They’ve updated their ranks, which i’ve cross-correlated in the player block below. They now go Holliday, Hernandez, Willits, Arquette, Arnold.
  • MLBPipeline updated their Draft board on 5/28/25, expanding it to 200. There’s been significant movement in the top 10, with Anderson flying up the board from #9 a month ago to #3 now. Top 5: Holliday, Hernandez, Anderson, Arnold, Willits. As with the BA update, all the MLB ranks below are updated to be current.
  • MLBPiepline’s Jim Callis came out with a new mock draft on 5/29/25: he claims the Nats are following 7-8 players but also seems confident with Holliday at 1-1. His top 5: Holliday, Doyle, Anderson, Arnold, Willits.
  • MLBPipeline’s Jonathan Mayo then popped up with his latest mock on 6/5/25 with a big shocker at the top: He thinks Washington is now going LSU’s Anderson 1-1. top 5: Anderson, Doyle, Arquette, Holliday, Arnold. Very college heavy, all four major D1 players off board by 5th pick. Interesting.

Aggregation Stats for College Baseball for Reference:

Draft Boards (not mocks): these are major shops Prospect Ranking lists, usually with Scouting reports, video, tool grades, etc.

Link Block for the top guys under 1-1 consideration

Prep Players who are in the running for 1-1:

Here’s some updated commentary on the players seemingly in the running; all four had significant post season stats to discuss:

  • Arnold got knocked around a bit by Duke in the ACC tournament ( 5ip, 5runs), then got the win against Mississippi State with a 7ip 13K 119 pitch appearance in the Regionals. FSU won their regional, so we got one last start from Arnold in the super regional losing effort: 6.2, 1R, 6 hits, 9/1 K/BB on 113 pitches. Can’t ask for much more than that.
  • Arquette had two weeks off thanks to Oregon State’s lack of a conference tournament, then went to town in the Regional, going 9-23 with a homer in the finale as OSU got stretched as a regional host but advanced. In the super regional: 5-13 with a walk and a bunch of runs scored; not bad.
  • Doyle had an abbreviated start in the SEC tournament against Texas, going just 3.2 and giving up 6 hits/4 runs. He needed 79 pitches to not even get out of the 4th. Then in regionals, Tennessee threw him in the first game oddly, where he predictably dominated Miami of Ohio with 11Ks over 6.2 innings for the win. Ok, so far so good … but then Tennessee puts him BACK on the mound in the regional final to close it out and he’s throwing 99 on two days rest in basically the highest leverage situation he’s ever faced as a player. Not. Good. I’d be scared to death he just did serious arm damage to himself. He’ll get another start in four days. Finally in the Super Regional he had to go against Arkansas, a team that shelled him earlier in the year … and he got hit again in his final start: 3.2 5h 5r, 2WP, 1HBP, and yanked in the 4th. Not a great look for evaluators getting their final look at the guy, and I think his chances of going 1-1 are finished.
  • Anderson got the start in the SEC tournament opener and dominated Texas A&M, 6ip, 12Ks and got lifted with just 84 pitches. Then in the regional he went game 2 against Dallas Baptist and threw an absolute gem: 7ip, 4hits, 0 runs 11/2 K/BB on 106 pitches. In the super Regional game one, Anderson got hit: 7r (6 earned) on 9 hits in 7ip .. however its worth noting that LSU was up 10-1 by the time Anderson gave up these runs. It’s entirely possible he just cruised through the last two innings to give the bullpen a break. He’s the only one of these players to make to Omaha.

Prep kids:

  • Holliday: season complete.
  • Hernandez: season complete.
  • Willits: season complete.

The Race for 1-1 status: I still think we’re on Holliday. Anderson has clearly supplanted both Arnold and Doyle in the “big three college lefties” ranking, but I don’t think its enough to get past Holliday.

So my current top 5 prediction: Holliday, Anderson, Hernandez, Doyle, Arquette.

Written by Todd Boss

June 9th, 2025 at 8:42 am

Posted in Draft,Prospects

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4 Responses to 'Post CWS Super Regionals Check-in with 1-1 candidates and Draft link content'

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  1. If you’re giving Anderson a bit of a pass, then give one to Doyle too, as his reliever let in three of his inherited runners, two of them plating on a grand slam that sealed the Vols’ fate.

    To me, Anderson and Arnold are pretty interchangeable — smallish guys who throw in the lower 90s but have a couple of plus secondary pitches. Both could get to the majors fairly quickly but are probably no better than #4-5 starters. They’re high floor/low ceiling guys who would be safe picks.

    I don’t know that Anderson has “clearly supplanted” anyone. Maybe he’s gotten himself up among the three to five guys to whom the Nats offer $8M or 8.5M, but it all still seems pretty muddled. I do agree that the muddle may help keep Holliday at the top of the Nats’ board.

    Doyle still intrigues me. He’s much more of a physical specimen than Arnold or Anderson. There’s no doubt watching him that his ceiling is higher . . . and so is his risk. He sure looks a lot more like a Rizzo prospect than the other two do.

    With Arquette, I liked that he didn’t try to do too much. He “stayed within himself,” as the cliche’ goes. He had a solid single off Arnold in his first AB, got a great jump off Arnold to steal second, and was able to score on a single. You usually apply “gamer” to a guy who is 5-9, but Arquette struck me as a 6-5 gamer. At the plate, he makes contact and doesn’t chase much, which gives him a pretty high floor. It’s really impossible to guess his ceiling. Will his power translate to the pros? What position will he play?

    Unlocking power remains a mystery, particularly in bigger guys. Someone seems to have accomplished it with Wood, although it may have been in his offseason workouts as much as anything anyone in the Nat organization has done. I always remember that the most homers Judge ever hit in a college season was 12, even in a league with a lot of altitude. Alonso’s college high was 14. Arquette has the longer levers and solid build that could be hiding big power, but the chances are higher that it won’t develop than that it will. He could be like Nathaniel Lowe, who looks like he should hit for a lot more power than he actually does.

    So . . .

    Arnold & Anderson = high floor/low ceiling = low risk
    Holliday & Doyle = low floor/high ceiling = higher risk
    Arquette = fairly high floor/fairly high ceiling = medium risk

    KW

    9 Jun 25 at 5:14 pm

  2. One thing I noted about Arnold in the comments on the last post, and will be interested to watch with Anderson in the CWS, is that Arnold struggled to finish off the better hitters in the Oregon State lineup. He made his hay off the lesser ones, striking out one guy four times. But the better ones seemed to be able to foul off a lot of his “out pitches” and his heater.

    KW

    9 Jun 25 at 5:20 pm

  3. crazy finish to the MS-Duke game. on a double play ball umpire calls obstruction on the runner to end the game and the dog pile on the mound ensues. call is reversed so players tuck back in their shirts and the MS closer goes back and gets the last Dukie to ground out. dog pile #2 follows.

    it was close but the runners left foot was actually inside the base line by maybe a foot.

    the MS closer had consecutive 3 inning saves in the series

    FredMD

    10 Jun 25 at 6:22 am

  4. All hail Murray State. Coastal Carolina still qualifies too, although it does have that shocker championship from a few years ago. With even bigger NIL money flowing into the power conferences, the raiding of good players from mid-majors will increase, and we’ll see fewer and fewer of these types of upsets.

    Heck, both Doyle and Arquette are both transfers from other major-conference teams, Doyle from a recent national champ.

    KW

    10 Jun 25 at 8:43 am

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