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The race for the 2011 Draft pick; Nats now tied for 7th

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Hey there happy nats fans!

A tough loss last night (witnessed by our friend droopy) puts the nats now into a Tie for 7th overall draft pick next year!

And, with a tough 3-game away series coming up in Philadelphia (where we face Halladay, Kendrick and then Oswalt) we might be creeping up further still.  My goal is the #3 spot (we’re only 4.5 games behind Arizona for that).  Baltimore and Pittsburgh flipped spots at the top of the board by virtue of a 2 game swing recently.  It’ll be hard to catch them.

Current 2011 draft order

Updated 8/19/10

1: Pittsburgh 40-80
2: Baltimore 42-79
3. Arizona 47-74
4. Seattle 48-73
5. Cleveland 49-71
6. Chicaco Cubs 50-71
(6a will go to Arizona for failing to sign Barret Loux)
7t. Kansas City 51-69
7t. Washington 51-69
9. Houston 52-67
(9a will go to San Diego for failing to sign karsten Whitson)

After Houston, there’s a 5 game gap to a cluster of teams like Milwaukee, Oakland, Detroit and Florida that probably will stay.  So the top 9 are worth tracking.

How about Arizona?  Probably looking at the #3 and #7th picks next year, in a pretty deep draft.

Written by Todd Boss

August 19th, 2010 at 12:49 pm

Greatest Draft yet for the Nats…

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Bryce Harper‘s last minute signing for something not quite as stratospheric as was requested by Boras ($6.25M bonus, $9.9M 5year contract) caps off a phenomenal draft for the Nats.  Going in, pundits were giving the team little chance to sign 4th rounder AJ Cole or 12th rounder Robbie Ray (both high end HS prospects with strong college commitments).   Even 2nd rounder Sammy Solis would be tough; his injury history knocked him out of the 1st round and there is always a chance with such guys that they’ll stick around for their senior year to increase their draft status (this is exactly what happened with our 14th rounder Timothy Smalling, a SS from Va Tech.  He has a shoulder injury, meaning he dropped from the 10th round and the nats weren’t offering 10th round signing money.  He’ll play his senior season and try to increase  his value).

In the end, the nats got 25 of their first 26 round draft picks to sign.  They paid overslot for Cole, far overslot for Ray and got them in the fold.  I say bravo to the Nats for ignoring the edicts from the Commissioner’s office to pay slot money (this the same commissioner who basically ran the team into the ground between 2002 and 2004, somewhat leading to our current predicament today in terms of lack of talent from those drafts), preferring instead to spend more money than ever before to get commits from players who can change the course of the franchise.

Great day today.

One last note.  I realize we’ll have this “signing day dance” no matter what actual calendar day is selected, and certainly this is a better system than what existed before a signing deadline day was picked (before, the benchmark was whether a player had begun to attend classes at whatever college they committed to, which led to all sorts of shenanigans and really wasn’t fair to Div-I programs who had a guy on campus ready to attend classes then suddenly was playing rookie league ball in florida 2 days later).  But the next collective bargaining agreement HAS to move this date up.

High end guys like Harper, Sammy Solis and Cole have now basically wasted an entire pro season of development because they knew they could squeeze more money out of teams by waiting til the end.  Plus, MLB “asks” teams to delay announcing over-slot deals so that there’s not a feeding frenzy of agents going “well player X got $2M so my guy should get $2.1M” all summer.  Here’s the current major dates on the GM baseball calendar:

  • The draft is held the first week of June (June 5-7 this year)
  • The all-star break is usually the 2nd week of july (this year it was july 11-15th)
  • And then the (non-waiver) trade deadline is July 31st.
  • The current draft signing deadline is 8/15 (unless it falls on a weekend, then its pushed out like it was in 2010).

From a GM perspective, a ton of work leads up to the trade deadline so you can’t put it between the all star break and the end of july.  Why not put the trade deadline somewhere in the first week of july?  The 2 weeks immediately following the draft are spent signing the low-end/college senior prospects already; once that is done why not just play the Scott Boras dance, get the kid signed by July 7th, and have the kid playing by mid july?

Boss

Written by Todd Boss

August 17th, 2010 at 9:12 am

Nats inching worse and worse…

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A 5-game losing streak, and having lost 7 of their last 10 games, has the Nats inching towards not meeting some pretty realistic goals for the season.

Most pundits thought a 70-win season was a good goal for this team after going 59-103 last year.  For the first time this season, the team is now projected to miss that goal.  Currently sitting at 49-66, they are on pace to finish 69-93.  We’re 71% of the way through the season and this losing streak is coming at a time where we are (finally) getting our presumed starters back.

More interestingly, the Nats are now inching closer to the “loser pack” of teams that are going to make up the top 10 of next year’s (talent-rich) draft board.  For months we have more or less been locked into the #9 pick in the 2011 amateur draft.  We are fully 5 games behind Milwaukee for the 10th pick.  Here’s how the draft order is shaping up (records as of 8/13/10):

9. Washington Nationals: 49-66
8. Houston Astros: 48-65
7. Chicago Cubs: 48-67
6. Cleveland Indians: 48-67
5. Kansas City Royals: 47-68
4. Arizona Diamondbacks: 46-70
3. Seattle Mariners: 44-71
2. Baltimore Orioles: 40-75
1. Pittsburgh Pirates: 39-75

Hey,  we’re only 3 games from drafting #4 next year!

Written by Todd Boss

August 13th, 2010 at 11:45 am

Posted in Draft,Nats in General

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Nats Draft 2010 update

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This is the Nats Farm authority draft tracker.  with the signing of their #3 and #8 round picks, the Nats have really locked in basically every non-marquee draft pick of their 2010 draft.  Who is left?

#1: Bryce Harper.  Thanks to Mr. Boras, don’t expect any movement until August 15th at 10:30pm.

#2: Sammy Solis, a Jr Lefty from USanDiego.  6’5″ 240 big lefty, #48 Baseball America prospect so perhaps a slight overdraft on our part at the top of the 2nd round.  Slight injury concern (ruptured disc in back cost him his sophmore season).  9-2, 3.00 era with 87/26 k/bb in 87ip.  Sits 89-92, touches 93.  Sounds kinda like a Detwiler with more bulk and thus less injury prone.

#4: AJ Cole; the most interesting of our draft picks.  Cole was a 1st round talent projected, signed with Miami.  He’s drawing comparisons to Justin Verlander in terms of his size/frame and his fastball (93-94, reportedly touching 98).  This is a great test of the ownership group; will they offer overslot money on a high-end talent?  Keith Law thinks its 50-60% that they sign him.

This would make for a pretty good drafting class if they get all three of these guys remaining.

They’ve already signed #3,5,6,7,10 positional players (all college juniors) and they’re all in Vermont playing short-A ball right now.

I was looking at the spreadsheet of draft picks and wonder though.  Why does any team bother drafting a High School kid in the 40th-50th round who has a division 1 college scholarship commit?  Is it just to impress the kid and make him feel good about himself?  I guess some of these guys pan out; 2006 we drafted Brad Peacock in the 41st round out of High School, probably gave him $1000 to sign, and he’s still plugging away.  He’s in Potomac now and isn’t doing too badly.

Written by Todd Boss

July 20th, 2010 at 2:52 pm