Nationals Arm Race

Here’s my review of the 2023 Draft Class, with call backs to the various draft boards out there and some thoughts along the way about sign-ability, likely bonus machinations, etc.

By the way, the Draft Tracker is now updated. There are three tabs of interest for the 2023 draft:

• Main Draft Tracker tab: shows Nats draft picks dating to 2005
• 2023 Draft Class Worksheet, where we have schools, commits, twitter feeds, and will track signing/bonuses
• 2023 Local Draft Class worksheet; tracking all DC/MD/VA players.

For the time being, i have a proposed draft bonus placed into the draft tracker to show how I think the bonuses may play out. I think the first 3 picks all go over-slot, 4th, 5th, 6th get around half their slot, and 7-10 all get like $10k Read on.

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For reference below, the major Draft boards in use here are:

• MLBpipeline draft board Top 250: (Jim Callis & Jonathan Mayo)
• The Athletic top 100: (Keith Law, behind a paywall)
• Baseball America top 500 (Carlos Collazo and staff, behind a paywall)
• Fangraphs top 125 or so Draft Board (Eric Longenhagen):
• ESPN Insider Top 300 Draft Board (Kiley McDaniel, behind a paywall)
• D1baseball.com Top 150 College only Draft Board (D1Baseball staff, behind a paywall)
• Prospects1500 top 50 and then 51-500: (Shawn Kernahan)
• ProspectsLive Top 500
• CBSSports.com Top 30 (RJ Anderson).

I pay for some things, not for others, so this isn’t a comprehensive list of boards out there. There are other draft boards out there (Baseball Prospectus behind a paywall, PerfectGame behind a paywall, Prospects365 & 20/80 baseball seem to be out of business), but if they don’t go beyond the top 50 or if I don’t subscribe they’re not here.

I’ll put in some scouting reports for the less well-known guys from some of the paywalled’ sites, since anyone can get scouting reports from the MLB’s main site.

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So, 1-10, here’s some thoughts on the picks one by one.

1. Dylan Crews, picked 2nd overall. OF (CF) from LSU.

Ranks: #2 by MLB, #1 Law, #1 BA, #1 Fangraphs, #2 ESPN, #1 D1Baseball, #2 Prospects1500, #1 ProspectsLive, #1 CBS.

Crews speaks for himself really, but here’s BA’s scouting report:

BA Grade:65/High
Tools: Hit: 65. Power: 65. Run: 55. Field: 55. Arm: 60.

Crews was a highly-regarded prospect coming out of Lake Mary (Fla.) High, though he ultimately withdrew from the 2020 draft and made his way to Louisiana State, where he immediately became one of the best players in college baseball. He set an LSU record with 18 home runs as a freshman, then moved from right field to center field during his sophomore season and clubbed 22 more home runs and was named a Golden Spikes semifinalist. He won the award a year later and was one of the best hitters in the country in 2023, when he hit .426/.567/.713 with 18 home runs, 16 doubles, a 13.4% strikeout rate and a 20.6% walk rate, while being the focal point of an offense that won a College World Series championship against Florida. He either got a hit or drew a walk in every game of the season. Crews has a powerfully-built 6-foot, 205-pound frame and above-average or better tools across the board. He has electric, double-plus bat speed that allows him to drive the ball to all fields with authority, catch up to velocity and make late swing decisions, with great balance and strength in his lower half. After chasing a bit too much in high school, Crews has developed an advanced approach in college, with a solid eye and just a 17% chase rate in 2023. He also hits the ball harder than most players in the class, with a 96 mph average exit velocity and a 110 mph 90th percentile mark. A plus runner now, Crews should be at least above-average in the future if he slows down, and he’s a good center field defender with advanced route-running ability and instincts. He profiles as a plus defender in an outfield corner if he needs to move, with easy plus arm strength. He entered the year as the No. 1 player in the class and is the favorite to be selected first overall, with perennial all-star upside potential.

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2. Yohandy Morales, picked 40th overall. 3B from Miami.

Ranks: #20 by MLB, #32 Law, #26 BA, #13 Fangraphs, #18 ESPN, #6 D1Baseball, #28 Prospects1500, #29 ProspectsLive,

I briefly posted some thoughts on Morales after day 1, but you can clearly see from the relative ranks of all these shops that Morales is a big coup to get at the top of the 2nd round. Even the most bullish guy (Law) still had him as a 1st rounder. So, since Law is low-man here’s his scouting report:

Morales looks like an easy top-10 pick when you see him walk on the field or take batting practice, or even just a few game swings where he makes contact, but he whiffs too much for that and most scouts think he’ll end up in left field or at first base, making the bat that much more important. Morales looks the part, certainly, and has a pretty swing that can produce significant power but more often puts the ball on the ground. You can beat him with velocity up or breaking stuff down and away, not dissimilar to former Florida Gator Jud Fabian, who was the Orioles’ second-round pick last year. Morales is neither natural nor easy at third and I think at least has to move to right field in pro ball. To his credit, he’s hit better in the ACC, .353/.430/.500 with just an 18.5 percent strikeout rate, and may be able to hit his way back up into the middle of the first round. There just seem to be better bets to hit in this class, between Morales’ two clear holes and the fact that a lot of the hard contact he makes comes in the form of groundballs.

BA Scouting report:

BA Grade:55/Extreme
Tools:Hit: 45. Power: 60. Run: 45. Field: 50. Arm: 60.

Morales was a talented and toolsy high school prospect who ranked as the No. 77 overall player in the 2020 draft class. He made it to campus at Miami, where he initially split time at shortstop and third base, before sliding over to the hot corner full time. Morales is a large, athletic righthanded hitter with a 6-foot-4, 225-pound frame that has plenty of strength now, but still room to add good weight in the future. He’s been a consistent producer for the Hurricanes and is a career .341/.412/.624 hitter over 172 games with 46 home runs. Morales takes big hacks, and starts his swing with a bit of a hand hitch before firing through the zone with a lengthy bat path. He has plus raw power that he generates with little effort in batting practice, and generates tons of damage on contact with a 94.2 mph average exit velocity in 2023 and a 108.9 mph 90th percentile mark. Morales has pure hit questions thanks to both the length of his swing and his pitch recognition. He chases out of the zone frequently and has long seemed to struggle identifying breaking balls, which leads him to getting out in front and off-balance at times. He missed 20% of the time vs. fastballs in 2023 compared to a 37% whiff rate on breaking balls. Morales is an average runner who has solid defensive tools at third, including solid mobility, athleticism and plus arm strength. He’ll need to become more consistent in the field and could potentially slow down as he adds strength to an already large frame.

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3. Travis Sykora, picked 71st overall. HS RHP from Round Rock HS (TX).

Ranks: #40 by MLB, #36 Law, #36 BA, #34 Fangraphs, #88 ESPN, n/a D1Baseball, #39 Prospects1500, #52 ProspectsLive,

A prep high school arm. Nats havn’t drafted a HS pitcher AT ALL since Michael Cuevas in the 23rd round in 2019. He’s turned out ok; he’s currently in the AA rotation holding his own at age 22 for a $125k signing bonus. The Nats havn’t drafted a prep HS pitcher this early since Mason Denaburg in 2018, and yes its fair to say he has NOT worked out (currently on the brink of release from an injury-filled minor league career off our low-A roster). But you can see why the Nats took him here; he’s nearly across the board a 36-40th ranked prospect, and they’re getting him nearly a full round later than he was projected by the industry. ESPN/Kiley McDaniel is most bearish on him; here’s his scouting report:

A little bit of Hans Crouse about him as a big quirky righty with huge stuff: up to 100 mph, flashes plus slider and splitter. He’s a big 6-foot-6 with below-average command and is old for the class, so the worry is he’s a reliever that may benefit from two years in the SEC.

Here’s Law’s scouting report:

Sykora is probably the hardest-throwing high school pitcher in the draft class, hitting 100 mph last summer and sitting 96-98 mph with some arm-side run, pairing it with a plus splitter that has hard tumble. He’s huge at 6-foot-6, 220 pounds, but has a super-short arm action where his arm is extremely late relative to his front leg landing, which might be why his slider has velocity but not much bite or tilt. He’s 19 already, which will hurt him in analytical models and means he’ll be draft-eligible in two years if he ends up at the University of Texas. He’s one for teams that value size and arm strength over delivery or breaking stuff.

4. Andrew Pinckney, picked 102nd overall. Col Sr OF (corner) Alabama.

Ranks: #216 by MLB, #168 BA, #211 ESPN, #123 D1Baseball, #233 Prospects1500, #187 ProspectsLive,

So, a college senior in the 4th round … me thinks Sykora and perhaps Crews need some over-slot money and Pinckney’s selection here could provide some of it. $660k slot for a college senior who went undrafted last year as a junior. Now, he’s not a scrub as evidenced by the general draft slots he was projected to go (generally 215-230 range, which puts him more like an 8th rounder and a likely $200k bonus. So expect some savings here to go elsewhere. Yet another outfielder…. i guess our hopes of seeing a pitcher-heavy draft are shot.

Now, that being said, BA liked him a lot. Here’s their scouting report:

Pinckney enjoyed a strong 2022 spring and summer, and followed it up with a career season in 2023 as a right fielder for Alabama. Listed at 6-foot-3, 215 pounds, Pinckney hit .338/.442/.645 with 18 home runs, 12 doubles and a career-high 13.9% walk rate. Pinckney has impressive athleticism and loud raw tools to go with his performance, though his production has consistently come with high strikeout numbers and an aggressive approach. He missed at a 32% rate this spring and has significant contact questions versus breaking balls and offspeed pitches, and will also expand the zone too frequently against all pitch types. He does have well above-average bat speed, which translates into hard-hit balls when he does make contact, with a strong 107 mph 90th percentile exit velocity and above-average power potential. He’s primarily played right field with Alabama but has impressive athleticism, above-average speed and plus arm strength that should allow him to play all three outfield positions and get a shot at center field to start his pro career. Pinckney has made impressive strides offensively each year in his college career and if he’s able to take a step forward with his pitch recognition and contact ability he has impact upside on both sides of the ball. Pinckney redshirted in 2020 and is old for the class as a 22-year-old on draft day.

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5. Marcus Brown, 138th overall pick, a SS from Oklahoma State.

Ranks: #147 BA, #214 Prospects1500, #222 ProspectsLive

Probably another value pick, in that Brown wasn’t really that highly ranked or considered. His scouting reports talk about his glove first, and he only hit .273 this year. Slot of $464k, i’ll bet we save another $200k on him on top of the $200k we probably saved on the 4th round Pinckney. His scouting reports remind me of a former Nat in Steve Lombardozzi when they say things like lefty swinging little power.

Here’s a couple scouting reports from the places that have them. BA first:

Brown began his career as a part-time second baseman for Oklahoma State, but hit well in just 24 games during his 2021 freshman season. A year later he moved into the team’s starting shortstop role and overall he’s slashed .323/.388/.436 for the Cowboys, with four home runs and 17 doubles and then was one of the best prospects in the Cape Cod League, where he played a brilliant shortstop but struggled offensively. Those offensive struggles carried over into his draft year, and Brown slashed just .273/.360/.469 with nine home runs, 10 doubles and a 16.4% strikeout rate and 5.7% walk rate. At 6-foot, 187 pounds, Brown is close to physically maxed out and is a light-hitting lefty bat now who probably won’t add much more power in the future. He has a choppy, line drive stroke that will occasionally put a ball over the fence to the pull side, but is better suited for all-fields line drive contact. His exit velocities were modest, at just 82 mph on average, and without average or even 40-grade power, he’ll need to improve his swing decisions and chase out of the zone less frequently to provide offensive value in pro ball. Brown does have solid pure bat-to-ball skills, with an 80% contact rate this spring, and he’s also done a nice job catching up to 92-plus mph velocity. While Brown currently has a light offensive profile, he’s as steady as they come defensively. He has a quick first step and silky smooth actions in the field and does a nice job creating efficient angles to the baseball, with deft footwork around the bag on double plays, and above-average arm strength.

and from Prospectslive:

Arguably the best defensive shortstop in the draft, Brown combines slick hands with good range and a plus arm to provide great defense up the middle. The bat isn’t as advanced as the glove as he struggles to drive and impact the ball but shows solid ability to make contact. There are no doubts about the glove but Brown’s draft stock and development will be tied to his offensive prosduction whether or not he can add power to his game. – Sam Capobianco

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6. Gavin Dugas, drafted 165th overall, 5th year sr 2B from LSU.

Ranks: Unranked by all shops

So, On the one hand we got the cleanup hitter from the CWS champion LSU team, a guy who wasn’t half bad this year (.290/.464/.589 with 17 hrs). On the other hand, he’s unranked, even outside the top 500, of every blog/scouting shop, which probably indicates what his expectations are in terms of both signing bonus and future success. Whatever; I like this pick; he was a gamer and he hits. Lets see what he can do in pro ball. Slot value of $357k; i don’t think this is a $10k senior sign, and I think he’ll get a bit of money, but expect more slot savings.

BA Scouting report:

Dugas has been a power-over-hit infielder for Louisiana State throughout his college career, but he banked a .300 season in 2022 and came 10 points shy of repeating that in 2023. In his fifth season with the program Dugas hit .290/.464/.589 with 17 home runs, 12 doubles, a 20.5% strikeout rate and a 14.3% walk rate. Dugas looks to do damage with a pull-heavy approach and uphill bat path. His home runs almost exclusively go to the pull side and that approach has led him to leak out early and swing-and-miss against breaking balls and offspeed offerings. Dugas is a limited defender who might be pushed off the dirt in pro ball and he’ll be 23 on draft day, but his righthanded power could make him an interesting senior sign target.

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7. Ryan Snell, drafted 195 overall. 5th year Sr C from Lamar.

Ranks: unranked by all shops

Well, you don’t get much more of a cost savings than a 5th year senior catcher from a no-name school. Snell’s not on any rankings; all we have to go on is his 2023 stats. And they’re solid: .317/.412/.654 for an OPS north of 1,000. He’s undersized because of course he is, but his bat seems to play. Slot value of $278k, i’ll bet he signs for almost nothing. No scouting reports anywhere that I can find, not even out of perfect game.

8. Jared Simpson, drafted 225 overall. 5th year senior LHP reliever from Iowa.

Ranks: unranked by all shops.

A 5th year senior lefty reliever from a big 10 baseball program does not scream “slot value.” Simpson had a 6.54 ERA this year, but he did have big K/9 numbers. This smells like a $10k sign.

BA Scouting report:

A 6-foot-4, 205-pound lefthander, Simpson struggled to a 6.54 ERA this spring in 42.2 innings with Iowa. He struck out a decent number of hitters with a 31.5% strikeout rate, but also walked 10.8%. His fastball sits in the low-90s but he hides the ball well and has little effort in his delivery. His sweeping slider generated a 26% miss rate this spring, and he also mixes in a shorter, mid-80s cutter that is effective. There is room for Simpson to put on productive weight which will likely translate to a couple more ticks of velocity.

9. Thomas Schultz, RHP senior from Vanderbilt, drafted 255th overall.

He threw just 13 innings out of Vanderbilt’s bullpen this year with a 5.40 ERA. Clearly a $10k level signing. No current scouting reports anywhere; here’s his PG report circa 2018:

Thomas Schultz is a 2019 RHP with a 6-6 205 lb. frame from Mount Carmel, PA who attends Our Lady Of Lourdes HS. Extra tall build, lanky and physically projectable with very long limbs. Leg lift delivery with a long and loose arm stroke, extended high 3/4’s arm slot, whippy arm action. Fastball topped out at 91 mph, works both sides of the plate well with his fastball and gets very good running life at times. Big soft curveball will show good depth at times, looks like a future slider candidate. Very projectable fastball with work to do on his secondary pitches. Very good student, verbal commitment to Vanderbilt.

10. Phillip Glasser, 5th year senior SS out of Indiana, drafted 285th overall.

Fifth year senior with no scouting reports on any shops, but he didn’t hit half bad this year (.357 starting for Indiana). Another clear senior sign slot savings bonus.

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First impressions: I think the Nats took one look at their top 3 picks and have decided to basically make this a 3-man draft. I think the lion’s share of their $14M+ bonus pool is going to Crews, Morales, and Sykora, and everyone else is org-man filler. And you know what? I’m fine with that. Crews the #1 ranked prospect on most boards, Morales was a mid-1st rounder projected who fell, and Sykora was a prep kid with a massive arm projected as a mid 2nd rounder who fell as well.

The Nats have done this with drafts in the past (the Giolito draft was basically a 1-man draft for example), but at least they got 3 top-end prospects out of this one.

After months of thinking Dylan Crews was going 1-1 … a last minute shake-up in Pittsburgh’s camp led to them taking Paul Skenes and letting Crews drop to the Nats at 2nd overall.

We talked about the “why” of why this might happen:

• Pittsburgh wants a fast-to-the-majors arm
• Skenes would probably take a haircut off of the $9.7M slot value, giving them more money to chase HS prospects later on.
• Crews had been posturing about not wanting to go to Pittsburgh or wanting a huge bonus.

It doesn’t matter why. What matters is that the Nationals have found themselves with the 2023 Golden Spikes award winner, the 3rd time they’ve gotten to draft such a player. The first two times worked out pretty well (Strasburg and Harper).

We’ve talked Crews to death in the media; he’s a 5-tool guy, true CF, great hit tool, speed, shows power, etc. I’m happy the team didn’t do something clever and pass on him. I think I would have preferred Skenes if we had the choice, given our lack of pitching prospect depth and our abundance of OF prospects, but that can all work itself out later.

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Later on in the evening, we took Yohandy Morales in the 2nd, out of U-Miami. Fantastic pick; a guy who had a ton of mid-1st round projection who we landed with the 40th overall pick. A great defensive 3B with a mature bat, he’s going to be a fast riser. Great pick, great bat.

So, yes we already have a top 3B prospect in Brady House. Again, you worry about these things being a problem only when they become a problem. Both were shortstops in high school before moving over due to size (Morales is 6’4″ 225, House is 6’4″ 215). Maybe they pivot to a corner OF spot, maybe someone pivots to 1B. If both these guys bash their way to the majors at the same time, maybe they platoon at 3B/DH. Maybe we flip one for a #2 starter.

I do realize the team has pitching needs, and i’m betting we’ll see a ton more arms drafted the rest of the way, but it seems to me the Nats stayed true to their draft board and grabbed BPA.

Can’t wait to see what happens from here…

With the Nats picking #2 overall in a draft that, for months, everyone thought was basically solidified in terms of who was going #1 overall, I’ve not done my typical “Mock draft” analysis/collection work.

But, in the days leading up to the draft, we’re hearing all sorts of crazy rumors and last minute shuffling of names going right ahead of us. So, lets talk about those rumors, talk about what’s going on, and then opine as to what the Nats should do.

Rumors: Dylan Crews has given an 8-figure bonus demand, is advised by Boras, and has told Pittsburgh he doesn’t want to play for them.

Well, I can’t blame him if any of these rumors are true. Crew could very well be pushing for an 8 figure bonus, and its not that much of a reach given that slot for 1-1 this year is $9,721,000. But, we also know that Pittsburgh has in year’s past gone the “under-slot 1-1 deal” route to spread more money around in later rounds. So, there’s definitely a possibility that they could go to a player like Wyatt Langford, who most people think goes 3rd overall (slot value $8,341,700) and say to him, “hey, we’ll give you $8.5M to sign right now) and he’d be ecstatic to take it, and Pittsburg nets more than $1.2M of excess bonus money,

This is essentially what Keith Law think may be going on in his latest mock.

Is Crews being overly demanding? Could he be calling the Nats and say I want $10M and the Nats (who have 1-2 overall for slot value of $8,998,500) would say, “ok we’ll find $1M elsewhere” and Pittsburgh just says knock yourself out? Maybe. But if Crews is doing this, its a dangerous game. If he falls too far down the road with a $10M signing bonus demand, he’ll quickly find himself priced out of the market altogether. The slot for #5 overall, for example, is just $7.1M, and there’s just no way a team like Minnesota blows $3M of surplus dollars on Crews when they can land one of the prep kids Clark or Jenkins there for $3M less. And Crews would be an idiot to go back to school; his value is maxed out right now; there’s no way he gets more next year; you can only go down from 1-1. I’d also point this out; this isn’t the 2010s when you could shop around for bonus dollars with no pools defined; teams have slots, they have penalties for going over, and I don’t really believe any rumor that an agent would advise a player to give up $9.7m in search of $10m.

(full bonus pools and slot values here, by the way)

Now, could Crews be telling Pittsburgh he doesn’t want to play for them? Sure. And I wouldn’t blame him in the least. Pittsburgh is one of the worst run franchises in the sport. They went 20 years without making the playoffs, not even getting to 80 wins, from 1993 to 2013. Then after a brief playoff run, they bottomed out after 2016 and have been basically dead last since. They were the 2nd worst team in the league last year, they never spend money, and they’ve proven to be awful at player development (just look at Gerrit Cole’s numbers in Pitt versus the second he left). The largest FA contract they’ve EVER SIGNED was a 3/yr $39M deal, and the largest contract extension they’ve ever committed to was a shade over $100M. So, yeah, if you’re a generational player, do you really want to go to Pittsburgh and basically play out the string while they bumble around for another 10 years without a winning season?

Maybe Crews is telling Pittsburgh he won’t sign for less than $10M, then calling Washington and saying he’ll sign for slot. That’d be a real “screw you” to Pittsburgh by Crew’s “advisor,” but it’d guarantee that both the player and the Nats get what they want: Crews would still get $9M, he’d be out of Pittsburgh, and the Nats would get the #1 player in the draft.

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Rumor: Pittsburgh wants Skenes more than Crews now.

This is what the latest BA mock draft thinks. Pittsburgh may have seen the CWS and seen Skenes’ capabilities and decided to go that way instead of dealing with whatever Crews says. If that’s the case … the Nats take Crews and are ecstatic about it. Its the easiest 1st round prep they’ve ever had to do.

What if both Crews and Skenes are still on the board?

Well, if that’s the case, and the Nats havn’t done some switcheroo promise to Crews, I think (as Law does) that they’ll sign Skenes to slot instead of blowing an extra $1M to give Crews his $10m demand. I mean, you can’t go wrong, but the Nats love the famous guy, Skenes is certainly famous, he’s right in line with our Strasburg pick, and he fits a pretty big need.

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Hey, I’ll be happy with either guy. Skenes could be in the majors by June of next year, Crews will be a stud. Can’t go wrong either way .

First draft of this post?  8/10/21 when Perfect Game updated its Virginia rankings for the 2021 prep season and added in some top-level DC area players.

The College players are mostly drawn from my 2020 Local High School draft coverage, listing guys who were HS seniors in 2020 who went to 3-year programs and who are now draft eligible.

2023 could be a real banner year for DMV guys; we legitimately have two potential 1st round high school players, which I can’t remember the last time happened, as well as several collegiate 1st rounders who project as high as top 10.

Reminder: on the Draft Tracker resource, I have a tab specifically for DC/MD/VA local players that I generally try to track each year. I’ve spec’d out the top prospects who are likely to drafted alraedy for 2023.

Major Local College Draft Prospects for 2023

• Kyle Teel, C/Util UVA (by way of NJ hs): 2022 2nd team Pre-season d1baseball AA as a sophomore. top of 2023 collegiate draft class per D1baseball Feb 2022. Projecting as mid 1st rounder by BA for 2023. Keith Law projects as high as 6th overall.
• Matt Shaw, 2B UMaryland. top 100 of class of 2023 per D1Baseball. Mid 2nd rounder per BA, moving up late 2022 per MLBPipeline (late 1st rounder). Law now has him mid-1st rounder.
• Jake Gelof, 3B UVA; drastically improved power numbers sophomore year, now projecting as 2nd rounder.
• Jack Hurley, OF, Virginia Tech. True CF, slashed .375/.452/.664 with 14 homers sophomore season.

Lesser Local College draft eligibles w/ Local Ties

• Carter Tryce, 2B/OF ODU (by way of ?? HS). top 100 of class of 2023 per D1Baseball.
• Jason Savacool, RHP UMaryland. top 100 of class of 2023 per D1Baseball.
• Trey Gibson, RHP Liberty (by way of Grafton HS in Yorktown, VA): 2021 Freshman AA. top 25 of 2023 collegiate draft class pre-2022 season per D1baseball. Liberty’s Friday night starter. Mid 2nd roudner per BA fall of 2022.
• Luke Shliger, C UMaryland. Struggled early 2023, but a C who can hit will always get drafted.

DC/MD/VA Local Prep players for 2023

• Bryce Eldridge, RHP/1B Madison HS. #2 in the state, #18 nationally in class in Mid 2021. Huge kid 6’8″ can hit mid 90s as a sophomore, easy velocity and sinking action from huge height. USA Prime summer team, Alabama commit. Bats L, throws R. #14 in the Class per BA in Feb 2022, again in May 2022. Projecting to upper 90s as a 6’8″ thrower. Projecting as supp-1st rounder Fall2022. 18U USA baseball team. MLBPipeline Dec 2022 as at #26. Law projects going in the 1st round teens (#17).
• Jonny Farmelo SS Westfield. #9 in 2021 state PG rankings, UVA commit. Now ranked #86 per BA’s list Feb 2022. #76 on BA’s July 2022 list. #52 MLBpipeline Dec2022. Law projecting end of 1st round possibly.
• Cameron Johnson, LHP IMG Academy (was McNamara, Forestville, MD). #55 on BA’s Feb 2022 list. LSU commit, blew up at WWBA last October. #44 July 2022 on BA list. Mid 90s from a big guy 6’5″ wow. Area Code Games 2022. 18U USA baseball team. MLBPipeline has #50 Dec2022

Lesser DC/VA/MD prep players of note.

• Tommy Roldan, LHP/OF Georgetown Prep via Poolesville. UVA commit, Area code Games 2022. 92 from the left hand side.
• Brody Shawn, RHP West Potomac HS. Pop-up mid 90s velocity, Wake Forest commit. #88 on BA’s feb 2022 list.
• Bryson Moore, RHP/1B Fairfax HS: #6 in 2021 state PG rankings, UVA commit
• Brett Renfrow, RHP Colgan. #12 2021 PG state rankings, Virginia Tech commit
• Jack McDonald, RHP/SS Independence . #15 2021 PG state rankings, ECU commit
• Marcus LeClair ? position, Gonzaga HS. #18 2021 PG state rankings, UVA commit

Extended DC/MD/VA Prep players (outside DC Area) on the radar.

• Blake Dickerson; LHP; Ocean Lakes HS, Virginia Beach, Va. Big tall lefty, Low 90s as a 17yr old. 18U USA Baseball team summer 2022. Virginia Tech commit. MLBpipeline top 100 Dec2022. Mayo called him out specifically here in his Dec 2022 newsletter.
• Tayshaun Walton, OF (corner), IMG Academy (was Maury HS Norfolk) . #1 player in the state as of 2021, UMiami commit. #5 nationally. Could blossom into a mid-1st rounder. Dirtbags summer team, 6’3 220, tons of power. Justin Upton comp. #28 ranked by BA Feb 2022. #75 BA list July 2022, falling somewhat. Not in MLBpipeline’s top 100 Dec2022

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Sources used

• Aug2021 NovaNine prep notebook, calling out Perfect Game rankings.
• BA class of 2023
• BA top HS draft picks 2/25/22.
• D1Baseball’s top 2023 class feb 2022
• BA’s 2023 class ranks July 2022
• 2022 Area code Rosters
• 2022 18U USA Baseball Rosters with three DC/MD/VA players
• Keith law’s 1st 2023 mock with two NoVa prep players in the 1st round
• 2023 MLBpipeline draft tracker

So, in years’ past, when the Nats were drafting somewhere besides the top 5, analyzing mock drafts was a lot more fun. We could look at who was predict to go at the top, then we could analyze all the myriad of names that could conceivably fall to the nats wherever they were picking.

In 2023 though, this exercise has proven to be pretty simple. There’s basically two guys who practically every pundit thinks will end up on our team, so this collecting of mock draft exercise seems futile.

Here’s some early takes on the 2023 draft class, with some mocks. By May, consensus amongst most scouts was the same top 5 in some varying order, then a gap to 6 and beyond.

Top 5 expected to be ( not necessarily in this order):

• Dylan Crews, OF from LSU, is the current #1 overall projection. Hit 349/.463/.691 as a sophomore for LSU with 22 homers. Plays CF but likely a corner in pro ball at 6’0″ 200lbs of power.
• Max Clark, a prep OF from Indiana with an all-Lefty speed/hit tool comparable to Jacoby Ellsbury. Possible 5-tool lefty who can hit 96 on the mound. Vanderbilt commit, isn’t getting to college. Struck out just 3 times in his entire junior season while slashing .577/.717/1.126.
• Walker Jenkins, a prep corner OF from NC. Commit to UNC. Underclassman on 18U national team, Projects to 30-home run power, had more walks and homers than Ks his Junior season.
• Wyatt Langford, OF, Florida. Huge bat, led Florida in slash lines in 2022 and now projects as a possible CF, turning him into an upper-end 1st rounder.
• Paul Skenes, RHP, LSU: Air Force xfer who is helium guy based on Fall 2022 work. Big arm. Exploded onto the scene in Spring 2023, added velocity, now expected top 2 picks.

Other names who appeared in earlier top 5 lists but who have dropped include:

• Chase Dollander, the RHP Friday starter for Tennessee in 2022. 103/13 K/BB in 79 innings, 2.39 ERA for Best team in college baseball in 2022. Shooting up draft boards with Jacob deGrom comps in 2022, but struggling in 2023. Slipping down the boards.
• Jacob Gonzalez, SS from Ole Miss. Middle of the order bat, slashed .355/.443/.561 for Ole Miss his sophomore season while leading team to CWS title.
• Jacob Wilson, SS Grand Canyon. All WAC as a freshman, starred for Team USA summer 2022. Stock increasing late 2022, rising up.

Here’s some early Mock Drafts that we’ve seen. Nats pick #2 but we’ll put in the top 5 for context.

• BA 2023 Way Too Early mock 7/20/22 (as in, the day after the 2022 draft): Crews, Clark, Dollander, Jenkins, Gonzalez. This is before we knew that the Nats would pick #2, and there’s no way they’re leaving top-end college talent on the board in a college-rich draft to pick a prep kid like Clark.
• BA 2023 Draft Class Rank 7/25/22: Clark, Crews, Jenkins, Gonzalez, Dollander. Crews would be a very, very solid pick at #2, despite our top three prospects also being OFs.
• BA First Full Mock post lottery 12/7/22: Crews, Dollander, Langford, Wilson, Gonzalez. Dollander as the top arm would be great, but beware his spring season as Tennessee’s Friday night starter.
• MLBPipeline Mock draft 12/15/22 with top 100 release: Crews, Dollander, Clark, Skenes, Langford. MLBPipeline notes that they went chalk to their top 100 at the top, noting that Dollander is the “best pitching prospect since Strasburg.” Fitting if the Nats get him.
• BA’s first official 2023 Mock draft 3/16/23: Crews, Langford, Skenes, Dollander, Clark.
• MLBpipeline Callis first mock 5/4/23: Crews, Skenes, Langford, Jenkins, Clark
• BA Mock v2.0 5/11/23: Crews, Skenes, Jenkins, Langford, Clark
• BA 5/17/23 staff draft. Crews, Skenes, Jenkins, Langford, Clark as well.
• MLBpipeline Mayo Mock 5/18/23: Crews, Skenes, Jenkins, Clark, Langford
• Keith Law 1st mock 5/23/23: Crews, Skenes, Clark, Jenkins, Langford
• MLBpipeline Callis mock 6/1/23: Crews, Skenes, Langford, Jenkins, Clark
• BA 6/8/23 mock 3.0: Crews, Skenes, Langford, Jenkins, Clark

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So, what do I think will happen? I think Pittsburgh, a notoriously conservative franchise in the draft, will cut a small deal with Crews (giving him the same $$ that he’d get at 2nd overall) and take him 1-1. A positional player is less risky than a pitcher, always. This then lets the Nats take the big arm, the guy who everyone says is the best pitching prospect since Strasburg, and they can start him in High-A or AA like with Strasburg, with an eye on getting to the majors maybe by late 2024.

What if the Pirates take Skenes? Then the Nats trip over themselves to take Crews. I don’t care how many OF prospects we have right now … Crews is that good. I don’t buy that Langford can play CF (if he could, he’d be doing so), and I’d rather have a college guy versus a prep guy.

What if the Pirates don’t take Crews or Skenes? If this happens … I think the Nats take Skenes.

So, the Nats have the #2 overall pick in 2023’s June amateur draft, only behind Pittsburgh at the top.

While its early in the season, there’s a couple of interesting points to keep up with. The consensus #1 pick right now continues to be LSU outfielder Dylan Crews, and he’s done absolutely nothing to dissuade evaluators of that 1-1 pick so far this season. Through last weekend’s series, Crews’ batting stats look more like a slow-pitch softball hitter’s stats: .531/.658/.988 slash line, 9 homers in 81 ABs, 26 walks to 12 Ks. LSU’s early schedule was a bit easy, but Crews has kept up his performance through the first couple of SEC league matches.

Pittsburgh is notoriously risk adverse in the draft, and there’s nothing that says “risk aversion” more than taking a College outfielder. At this point in the process, i’d be completely floored if Pittsburgh didn’t take Crews.

Which leaves the Nationals with their pick of anyone else.

Now, in the odd case that Pittsburgh decides to be clever and signs an under-slot deal at 1-1 with someone else (something like what Baltimore did recently), The Nats would be fools not to take this guy. Yes our top 3 prospects are all outfielder prospects. No its not a position of need. But this is baseball, not the NBA or NFL. You do not draft for need; you draft the best player available.

But this article is not about Crews. Its about the realities of the Nats current farm system (i.e. almost no pitcher depth) and the emergence of a near 1-1 player in this draft: LSU’s Friday night starter Paul Skenes. Skenes was an Air Force transfer who put up solid numbers in Colorado as a two-way player (not that he’s hitting for LSU’s powerful lineup) before moving into the SEC. And all he’s done since arriving is dominate. Here’s his pitching lines on a week to week basis so far:

• Home vs Western Michigan: 6IP, 3 hits, 0 Runs 12/1 K/BB.
• Neutral vs Kansas State: 6IP, 2 hits, 1 ER, 11/2 K/BB
• Home vs Butler: 6IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 13/0 K/BB
• Home vs Samford: 6Ip, 2 hits, 1 ER, 12/1 K/BB
• Away vs Texas A&M: 6.1 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER, 11/0 K/BB
• Home vs Arkansas: 7ip, 2 hits, 1ER, 12/3 K/BB

Total? 6 starts, 37.1 innings, just 14 hits allowed to go with a gaudy

Maybe you could quibble about the quality of his first few starts, but TAMU was ranked 15th in the nation when they met two weeks ago, and Arkansas was ranked 3rd when they met in Baton Rouge. Plus Kansas State is a power-5 conference team and Samford is no slouch.

This guy is legit, and he’s legitimately shutting down some of the best teams in college baseball.

Scouting reports on him have not really caught up to what he’s doing so far in 2023. MLBpipeline says the following: “After working at 93-95 mph and touching 99 with his fastball last spring, Skenes operated at 95-99 mph during fall practice, and the flat approach angle and carry on his heater make it even more difficult to hit. His slider has improved at LSU, becoming an 85-88 mph beast with sharp break when it’s on, though it can get loose at times. His power changeup arrives at 88-91 mph with fade and shows signs of becoming a solid offering.“

Skenes is hitting 100, 101 now. He’s sitting upper 90s with three pitches. Its a bit early, but he’s performed against two tough SEC teams.

I think he’s the Nats #1 draft target right now.

Its been a busy month for me, and i’m only partially paying attention to Nats headlines. Earlier this week, I did notice/hear that Cade Cavalli had been pulled from a start with something related to an elbow, and while it didn’t register with me at the time, eventually the news came out.

Tommy John. Full tear. Out 12-18 months.

Gut-punch.

The Nationals’ starting pitching depth has really taken a beating in the last couple of years.

• Strasburg: thirty IP in 3 years and zero faith that he’ll ever return.
• Corbin has forgotten how to pitch.
• Grey had an ERA > 5.00 and a FIP of nearly 6.00 in the majors.
• Rutledge can’t get any one out in Low-A (and is laughably assigned to AA right now)
• Henry had TOS, the same thing that may be ending Strasburg’s career.
• Adon literally couldn’t get anyone out in the majors.
• Carrillo couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn and is now a AA reliever.
• Irvin is back after TJ but is no where near resembling the 2nd round form he exhibited in College.
• Denaburg returned after lenghly absences and is no longer considered even a top 30 prospect
• Cate forgot how to pitch and was outrighted.
• Romero finally crossed the imaginary line keeping him employed with the team with his latest transgression (not that he was considered a prospect anymore…)
• Lara got lit up in Low A while eating pizza and burgers (anyone believe his listed weight of 180?)
• … and now Cafalli is out for a while.

That’s your 2020 1st rounder, 2020 2nd rounder, 2019 1st rounder, 2018 1st rounder, 2018 2nd rounder, 2017 1st rounder, $60M in payroll, and a couple of significant prospects for whom we dumped Scherzer and Turner. In other words, that’s nearly every top draft pick for four years running, a massive chunk of your current payroll, and every arm we got in return for dumping two franchise players two years ago.

What a debacle.

The Nats have almost zero Arms in the upper minors pipeline at this point who you’d look at as an up and coming replacement. Why? Because multiple years of futility drafting arms has badly caught up with this team. Who sounds promising? 2022 2nd rounder Bennett hasn’t done anything to embarrass or hurt himself yet. that’s good. Parker continues to get people out despite having very little “stuff” as the scouting reports claim. Theophile showed some promise last year before getting promoted. Maybe Susana can amount to something, or Aldo Ramirez. But that’s the entire system. anyone in FCL or DSL is 5 years from making an impact.

It could be a dark, or expensive, 5 years for this team. Consider how many top end offensive prospects we have. If those guys come up and start really cranking … they by themselves can power the team to a 500 record. Kinda like what happened to this team between 2010 and 2011. The team went from 59 wins in 2009 to 69 wins in 2010 to a .500 record in 2011. We all know what happened then. So, unless this team can find more arms somewhere, they may be buying them on the open market to support what could be a pretty good hitting team in a few years.

We havn’t talked much yet about the 2023 draft, but I’ll bet you $1 right now we got back to an all-pitcher draft like we used to do. And that’ll start at the top, where there’s a couple of big-time SEC arms likely for the taking in Chase Dollander and Paul Skenes. Dollander was a 1-1 guy last year, but hasn’t been quite as impressive as Skenes: in 4 starts this year he’s 4-0, 48-4 K/BB and has given up just 8 hits in 24 innings. Ok, so those starts were against Western Michigan, Kansas State, Butler, and Samford, so not that impressive, but still against D1 hitters.

For 2023, maybe we’ll find some gold like we’ve done with Meneses. But man we could use some good news on the pitching front.

With the last Qualifying Offer-laden signing occurring yesterday (Nathan Eovaldi going to the profligate Texas Rangers, who have bought themselves an entire new rotation this offseason), the 2023 draft order is now complete. Major input to the top of the draft order was determined by the results of the Draft Lottery a few weeks back, and then with the announcement of this year’s free draft picks for cheap-skate teams Competitive Balance Picks.

The final 2023 Draft Order is now uploaded to this Google XLS. It shows the original 1st round order, the post-draft lottery order, all the picks gained and lost due to signings etc.

As it stands, the Nats picks are:

• 1st round: #2 overall post lottery
• 2nd round: #39 overall. this pick had the chance to slightly move up if one of the comp-A round teams decided to sign a FA … but the only one of them even thinking about competing in 2023 seems to be Seattle, who did not sign anyone.
• 3rd round: #70. this pick moved up seven slots thanks to the eight teams who gave up their 2nd round picks to sign QO players.
• 4th round: #99, from the original projected #107. Again, moved up 8 slots due to 8 lost 2nd rounders.
• 5th round: #134; moved up 10 spots due to two additional lost comp picks from players re-signing as QO laden players.
• 6th round: #161, moved up 3 more spots thanks to three teams (San Diego, Yankees, and Philadelphia) who gave up their 5th rounders.

No word yet on bonus pools, but the #2 overall team last year (Arizona) had more than $15M in total bonus pool and an $8.1M figure for its 2nd overall pick, which should net a couple of very good prospects. #2 overall was worth $8.1, while the #39 overall pick was worth a hair over $2M. So that’s what we can expect from the 2023 draft.

So, four picks in the top 100 for the 2023 draft.

Honestly, I thought we were gonna get screwed.

Tonight’s draft lottery ended up giving us the #2 overall pick, out of a best case of #1 overall and worst case of #7 overall.

Final results:

1. Pirates (T-1)
2. Nationals (T-1)
3. Tigers (6)
4. Rangers (7)
5. Twins (13)
6. A’s (T-1)
7. Reds (4)
8. Royals (5)
9. Rockies (8)
10. Marlins (9)
11. Angels (10)
12. D-backs (11)
13. Cubs (12)
14. Red Sox (14)
15. White Sox (15)
16. Giants (16)
17. Orioles (17)
18. Brewers (18)

So Pittsburgh (which had the same chance as us to get 1-1) get the first pick, we get 2nd, then the Tigers move up a few slots, as does Texas. Oakland gets slightly screwed, dropping from #3 to #6, and the Reds/Royals both get pushed down a bit as well,

Meanwhile, Minnesota is the big lottery winner, going from #13 to #5, meaning they’re netting themselves a super good 1st rounder in 2023 after a decent season.

With the #2 overall pick, The Nats are nearly going to have their pick of the draft class. And, with the cheap-skate Pittsburgh team ahead of them, its highly likely they cut a deal with the player at 1-1 to spread money around, meaning we may very well endup with the best talent in the draft.

At this point, there’s a few names that are crystalizing for the top of the 2023 draft; here’s a quick snippet on some of them.

College guys:

Dylan Crews, OF/RF LSU. Opted out of 2020 draft as a projected 2nd rounder, now might go 1-1. Hit .362/.453/.663 as a freshman. Sept 2022 #1 player in the class.
Jacob Gonzalez, SS Ole Miss. Bonafide SS who hit .355/.443/.561 with 12 home runs and more walks (38) than strikeouts (34) his freshman year. #1 prospect in class Dec 2021.
Chase Dollander, RHP Tennessee. 2nd team AA in 2022, mid 90sfb with good off-speed. Helium guy mid 2022, not sure why he’s jumped other candidates.
Jacob Wilson, SS Grand Canyon. All WAC as a freshman, starred for Team USA summer 2022. Stock increasing late 2022, rising up.

Prep guys:

Max Clark, OF, Franklin (Ind.) Community HS. Vanderbilt commit, lefty hitting OF prospect #1 prep player in the class as of mid 2021. Went 5-5 one day at Area codes. #1 prep player in draft per BA Sept 2022.
Walker Jenkins OF, South Brunswick HS, Southport, N.C. 18U national team as underclassman in 2021. #1 HS player in class per Fangraphs Dec 2021, #2 prep in class per BA Sept 2022.
Thomas White, LHP Phillips Academy, Andover, Mass. Uncommitted. Highly polished LHP starter.
Dylan Cupp, SS Cedartown (Ga.) HS. Mississippi State commit. Top SS in draft.
Walter Ford, 3B/RHP Hoover (Ala.) HS. 2-way threat, mid-upper 90s on the fastball and great power. Alabama commit. 2021 18U National team as underclassman.

Imagine Gonzalez getting picked and joining our suite of top-end hitters in the middle minors, all set to matriculate at the same time? More of a hitter’s draft than pitcher’s draft right now, but there’s also some arms in the mix for 1-1. I don’t like Dollander as much honestly, i’d rather have a bigger arm with more of a clear shot at 1-1.

(quick personal note: apologies for the radio silence here. I have not posted since September 9th, more than 6 weeks ago. Not that there was a ton to post about; when the team emptied its coffers of all remaining players with any trade value, it wasn’t a surprise how the rest of the season was going to play out. That being said, we moved at the end of August and i’m working multiple consulting gigs, and, well, its been tough to put the time in on this blog with so many other items pressing for my time. I hope to do better this off-season, doing some typical non-tender, arbitration, rule-5 posts, etc).

It seems typical that the Nats would manage to finish with their worst record since moving to 2005 (and nearly their worst record ever as a franchise, being only pipped by the amazingly bad 52-110 1969 Montreal debut season) in the exact same year that MLB goes to a draft lottery at the top of the draft. So, instead of having the biggest bonus pool and first crack at the top draft talent … we have to wait to see where we actually pick. Perhaps this is penance for the amazing set of circumstances that led us to pick 1st overall two years in a row, which netted us both Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper and set the franchise on a pathway towards multiple playoff runs and the 2019 World Series title.

How quickly the tides turn, and this year we finished 55-107, which guaranteed us the worst record in the league by a full 5 games over the Oakland Athletics.

So, how does the lottery work? Tanks to this excellent NBCsports article, here’s how it works:

• Each non-playoff team is assigned odds of getting the top pick.
• The worst three teams each have equal odds at 16.5%, meaning that despite the fact that Washington was worse than Oakland and Pittsburgh, we all have the same chance.
• The lottery only lasts the first 6 picks, then goes in direct order after that.

So, We have basically a 1 in 6 chance of getting the #1 pick. We have right around a 50% chance of getting a top 3 picks, and we can pick no worst than 7th.

Here’s the exact draft odds/reverse standings for 2022.

So, its a coin flip that we get into the top 3, meaning its highly likely we get a really solid pick. I’ve already started collecting names for the top of the 2023 draft. Right now the top prospects are looking like the following:

College Prospects:

• Dylan Crews, OF/RF LSU. Opted out of 2020 draft as a projected 2nd rounder, now might go 1-1. Hit .362/.453/.663 as a freshman. sept 2022 #1 player in the class.
• Jacob Gonzalez, SS Ole Miss. Bonafide SS who hit .355/.443/.561 with 12 home runs and more walks (38) than strikeouts (34) his freshman year. #1 prospect in class Dec 2021.
• Chase Dollander, RHP Tennessee. 2nd team AA in 2022, mid 90sfb with good off-speed. Helium guy mid 2022, not sure why he’s jumped other candidates.
• Rhett Lowder, RHP Wake Forest. ACC pitcher of year in 2022, starred for Team USA summer 2022.

Prep Prospects:

• Max Clark, OF, Franklin (Ind.) Community HS. Vanderbilt commit, lefty hitting OF prospect #1 prep player in the class as of mid 2021. Went 5-5 one day at Area codes. #1 prep player in draft per BA Sept 2022.
• Walker Jenkins OF, South Brunswick HS, Southport, N.C. 18U national team as underclassman in 2021. #1 HS player in class per Fangraphs Dec 2021, #2 prep in class per BA Sept 2022.
• Thomas White, LHP Phillips Academy, Andover, Mass. Uncommitted. Highly polished LHP starter.
• Cam Collier, 3B Mount Paran Christian HS, Kennsaw, Ga.. Louisville commit, huge power, biggest bat in class.

So, even in the worst case, where the Nats are shut out of the lottery and pick 7th, one of these players is absolutely going to be available, or a player who pops up this coming spring. So, all is not lost: don’t forget that we have gotten really solid players drafting in the #4-6 overall range in the past:

• Ryan Zimmerman was 4th overall in 2005
• Ross Detwiler was 6th overall in 2007
• Anthony Rendon was 6th overall in 2011 (via a set of circumstances that still boggles the mind to this day)
• Elijah Green was 5th overall this year.

The lottery order likely is set at the Winter Meetings, so we’ll revisit this post then.

Until then … are you finding yourself actually rooting for Philadelphia and Bryce Harper in the playoffs? Are you rooting for San Diego with their own ex-Nat super star Juan Soto? Great games so far.