With the Nats picking #2 overall in a draft that, for months, everyone thought was basically solidified in terms of who was going #1 overall, I’ve not done my typical “Mock draft” analysis/collection work.
But, in the days leading up to the draft, we’re hearing all sorts of crazy rumors and last minute shuffling of names going right ahead of us. So, lets talk about those rumors, talk about what’s going on, and then opine as to what the Nats should do.
Rumors: Dylan Crews has given an 8-figure bonus demand, is advised by Boras, and has told Pittsburgh he doesn’t want to play for them.
Well, I can’t blame him if any of these rumors are true. Crew could very well be pushing for an 8 figure bonus, and its not that much of a reach given that slot for 1-1 this year is $9,721,000. But, we also know that Pittsburgh has in year’s past gone the “under-slot 1-1 deal” route to spread more money around in later rounds. So, there’s definitely a possibility that they could go to a player like Wyatt Langford, who most people think goes 3rd overall (slot value $8,341,700) and say to him, “hey, we’ll give you $8.5M to sign right now) and he’d be ecstatic to take it, and Pittsburg nets more than $1.2M of excess bonus money,
This is essentially what Keith Law think may be going on in his latest mock.
Is Crews being overly demanding? Could he be calling the Nats and say I want $10M and the Nats (who have 1-2 overall for slot value of $8,998,500) would say, “ok we’ll find $1M elsewhere” and Pittsburgh just says knock yourself out? Maybe. But if Crews is doing this, its a dangerous game. If he falls too far down the road with a $10M signing bonus demand, he’ll quickly find himself priced out of the market altogether. The slot for #5 overall, for example, is just $7.1M, and there’s just no way a team like Minnesota blows $3M of surplus dollars on Crews when they can land one of the prep kids Clark or Jenkins there for $3M less. And Crews would be an idiot to go back to school; his value is maxed out right now; there’s no way he gets more next year; you can only go down from 1-1. I’d also point this out; this isn’t the 2010s when you could shop around for bonus dollars with no pools defined; teams have slots, they have penalties for going over, and I don’t really believe any rumor that an agent would advise a player to give up $9.7m in search of $10m.
(full bonus pools and slot values here, by the way)
Now, could Crews be telling Pittsburgh he doesn’t want to play for them? Sure. And I wouldn’t blame him in the least. Pittsburgh is one of the worst run franchises in the sport. They went 20 years without making the playoffs, not even getting to 80 wins, from 1993 to 2013. Then after a brief playoff run, they bottomed out after 2016 and have been basically dead last since. They were the 2nd worst team in the league last year, they never spend money, and they’ve proven to be awful at player development (just look at Gerrit Cole’s numbers in Pitt versus the second he left). The largest FA contract they’ve EVER SIGNED was a 3/yr $39M deal, and the largest contract extension they’ve ever committed to was a shade over $100M. So, yeah, if you’re a generational player, do you really want to go to Pittsburgh and basically play out the string while they bumble around for another 10 years without a winning season?
Maybe Crews is telling Pittsburgh he won’t sign for less than $10M, then calling Washington and saying he’ll sign for slot. That’d be a real “screw you” to Pittsburgh by Crew’s “advisor,” but it’d guarantee that both the player and the Nats get what they want: Crews would still get $9M, he’d be out of Pittsburgh, and the Nats would get the #1 player in the draft.
Rumor: Pittsburgh wants Skenes more than Crews now.
This is what the latest BA mock draft thinks. Pittsburgh may have seen the CWS and seen Skenes’ capabilities and decided to go that way instead of dealing with whatever Crews says. If that’s the case … the Nats take Crews and are ecstatic about it. Its the easiest 1st round prep they’ve ever had to do.
What if both Crews and Skenes are still on the board?
Well, if that’s the case, and the Nats havn’t done some switcheroo promise to Crews, I think (as Law does) that they’ll sign Skenes to slot instead of blowing an extra $1M to give Crews his $10m demand. I mean, you can’t go wrong, but the Nats love the famous guy, Skenes is certainly famous, he’s right in line with our Strasburg pick, and he fits a pretty big need.
Hey, I’ll be happy with either guy. Skenes could be in the majors by June of next year, Crews will be a stud. Can’t go wrong either way .
Great and timely writeup Todd.
This is boring but I agree with everything here, word for word.
This will be the 1st draft I will have watched live. Makes for great theater.
Mark L
7 Jul 23 at 2:00 pm
There’s one more scenario: Pirates take Skenes, Crews asks for too much, and the Nats pivot to Langford. I’ve hardly heard Langford mentioned in connection with the Nats, but the Crews overslot story may be shifting some thinking. I haven’t heard the Nats mentioned with Clark and Jenkins at all, so it seems likely that they’ll end up with one of the three college guys. That’s my preference, too. They’re already heavily invested in high schoolers.
That said, the narrative for months has been that the Nats would take Skenes or Crews, so it would be a little surprising if things don’t play out that way. Those who are promoting Langford as a CF (including McDaniel, who now has him as his #1 guy) are really just guessing, as we’ve discussed. Crews has much more of a defensive record and a better hit tool.
KW
7 Jul 23 at 2:11 pm
KW: i kind of addressed my skepticism for the “Crews asks for more money than Nats are willing to offer” scenario, because of the realities of the draft bonus slotting system.
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2023-mlb-draft-bonus-pools-slot-values-for-each-team/
Here’s how the slot values decrease going from 1st overall to 5th: 9.7, 8.99, 8.3, 7.6, and 7.1. Maaaaaybe the Nats agree to a $1M overslot deal, but if they don’t, is Detroit going to go 1.7M overslot to get Crews at #3? That’s a stretch. Is Texas going to go 2.4M over slot at #4 overall? No way; they’ll just get Clark or Jenkins. Same with #5 Minnesota. Suddenly Crews is looking at taking a massive haircut over his original slot value just to get signed. … and he’s not gonna go back to school. That’d be completely stupid.
Todd Boss
7 Jul 23 at 3:52 pm
Agreed. Crews and Boras are doing a dance that might end up costing them a million or two.
Or it could be that Crews and Boras are doing it mainly just to avoid the Steel City, as you speculated in the piece. But that only works if the Bucs take Skenes, right? If they take Langford and Rizzo jumps on Skenes, then Crews is out a million or more plus stuck going to scenic Detroit. The Rangers would pay Crews to a certain extent, but with slot of only $7.6, it’s hard to see them going into $9M+ territory.
On the field, the Pirates seem to need Skenes more than they need an outfielder. You also wonder what the Pirate fan base would do if they were to skip both Crews and Skenes. They’ve been built up in the press to be generational talents, with Langford really only put in that conversation by several of the gurus.
My guess at the moment would be that the Pirates take Skenes and the Nats take Crews.
KW
7 Jul 23 at 6:01 pm
One other thought: could a team decide to go over their bonus pool this year?
I am a bit confused about the new drafting system, but I think if you’re in the top 10 this year you can’t be next year?
So imagine you’re the Twins (or the Reds for that matter). Not only are you locked out of the top 10, but also a ton of much worse teams are ALSO locked out of the top 10 and very likely going to draw ahead of you. So you’re probably looking at picking in the back teens next year at the highest if you get lucky, and maybe much lower than that if you’re unlucky.
I dunno, if Crews were still around demanding 10 million, if I were them I’d be temped to give it to him (and then blow the limit in subsequent rounds too to grab as much talent as I could) and figure the lost picks next year are going to be low enough that it’s outweighed by the benefit of getting a probably all-star level player.
Then again, I probably don’t have a GM job for a reason.
Matt
8 Jul 23 at 2:04 pm
It’s finally here, Christmas in July! Welcome to D.C., um, Paul Skenes?
Callis & Mayo have their final mock picks posted this morning:
https://www.mlb.com/news/final-mlb-mock-draft-2023
They both have Langford to the Pirates and both say they’re hearing that the Pirates want a hitter, be it Langford or Crews. They both seem to think that Skenes is a slam dunk for the Nats if he’s still on the board at #2.
If the Pirates were to pivot to Skenes, I would guess that the Nats are on Crews more than Langford. There hasn’t been much chatter at all connecting Langford to the Nats.
The Nats pick at #2, 40, 71, 102, 138, 165, and 195, and every 30 thereafter. The first two rounds are tonight. If they go pitcher first, I’d like to see a college hitter in the second. I’ve mentioned the extreme need for another quality SS in the system.
KW
9 Jul 23 at 7:20 am
I’ll add that I don’t understand the Pirates’ insistence on a hitter. If they think that they’re close to contending — and in the awful NL Central, they are — a top starting pitcher gets them there faster than another OF. So seeing them pivot to Skenes wouldn’t surprise me. They may be saying OF to try to get Skenes’s price down.
KW
9 Jul 23 at 7:27 am
With both Crews and Langford having Scott Boras as their agent, it’s another reason to root for a Skenes pick. I have Boras fatigue.
Mark L
9 Jul 23 at 12:20 pm
I haven’t seen that Langford is also represented by Boras. Crews and Jenkins are. Unless Boras has a deal in place with the Nats for Crews, it’s looking at the moment like he’s overplayed his hand with Crews and is going to end up costing his client a million or more, not to mention leaving him in the marketing-options wasteland of Detroit.
Boras also has dealt extensively with the Rangers, who pick 4th, but they won’t have the slot money that the teams picking ahead of them do.
KW
9 Jul 23 at 1:11 pm
I said several times that I don’t see how the Pirates pass on Skenes. They didn’t.
KW
9 Jul 23 at 7:13 pm
It’s Crews. And that’s great. He’s ALWAYS hit. We’ve floated the Rendon and Bregman comps. He’s faster than both and can play CF.
KW
9 Jul 23 at 7:21 pm
Huge luck for the Rangers to have Langford fall to them. They’re close, and he’ll be quick to the majors. He can’t play CF, though.
KW
9 Jul 23 at 7:30 pm
Doesn’t seem fair that Waldrep fell to the Braves. On a positive note, the college pitching board is falling down a bit, perhaps leaving someone good for the Nats at #40.
KW
9 Jul 23 at 9:29 pm
Morales a nice BPA pick at #40, was #18 on McDaniel’s board, #20 on MLB.com, #32 KLaw. Not sure how he fits organizationally with House rising quickly at 3B. Presumably he becomes a LF/1B/DH candidate. Big numbers at Miami this season: .408/.475/.713, with 20 homers and 13 doubles.
Several good choices still available to start the 3d round today.
KW
10 Jul 23 at 7:24 am