Nationals Arm Race

"… the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same – pitching.” — Earl Weaver

ALDS Pitching Matchups and Prediction


Two games down, and my prognostication skills are looking good (2 for 2 in WC games).

Lets look at the ALDS series with pitching matchups


  • Game 1: Price vs Gallardo
  • Game 2: Stroman vs Hamels
  • Game 3: Estrada vs Perez/Lewis (I’d guess Lewis)
  • Game 4: likely Dickey v Holland
  • Game 5: likely Price vs Gallardo rematch

Buehrle doesn’t make the post-season roster and sails into the sunset having gotten destroyed in his final outing (and torpedoing my fantasy championship in the process, handing a free win to Tampa’s starter on the evening).

Prediction: I like Toronto in this series, winning in 3 or 4 games.  Toronto may struggle with Gallardo in game 1 but will have Price to shutdown Texas.  Toronto is RHP heavy and shouldn’t struggle too much against Hamels in the homer-dome.  Estrada and Dickey don’t sound like they’re scary but they’ve both been dominant in the 2nd half (Dickey in particular: 8-1 with a 2.80 ERA since the all-star break). 

Kansas City-Houston:

  • Game 1: Ventura v McHugh
  • Game 2: Cueto vs Kazmir
  • Game 3: Volquez vs Keuchel
  • Game 4: likely Young vs McCullers
  • Game 5: likely Ventura v McHugh rematch

KC catches a huge break only having to face likely Cy Young winner Keuchel once in this series.  The rest of Houston’s rotation isn’t as impressive on a head to head basis.  I think we might see the home team hold serve in all five games here the way the pitching match-ups look.  I don’t see Keuchel losing, nor do I see McCullers losing his home start (even given his youth; he’s been excellent at home).  Cueto had crummy numbers but finished relatively strong and Ventura can be a beast.  Prediction: I like Kansas City in five.


2 Responses to 'ALDS Pitching Matchups and Prediction'

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  1. OK, two confessions. The first is that I don’t pay that much attention to the AL. The other is that I was going to pick the Jays, but I now know that they’ve lost game 1 and are staring at Hamels in game 2, with Donaldson and Bautista at least wounded, if they play. But I’ll play fair and stay with a pick of the Jays, in five. I’ll say KC in five for the other series as well. I think KC is the better overall team, and Houston faded a bit in the second half, but the Astros have a pitching advantage. If Keuchel could go twice, it might flip the script.


    8 Oct 15 at 7:30 pm

  2. I got both games last night wrong. Can’t believe the Blue Jays couldn’t get at Gallardo and yeah they’re in trouble now. Houston less surprising b/c they are such free swingers and the Royals really don’t have a lights-out ace like some teams. Lots of pundits picking Houston.

    How amazing would a Houston-Chicago Cubs series be? 2012 records for those two teams: 55-107 and 61-101 (

    Todd Boss

    9 Oct 15 at 9:09 am

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