Nationals Arm Race

"… the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same – pitching.” — Earl Weaver

Post-Season pitching Staff; who should it be?

37 comments

Gonzalez is key in the NLDS. Photo via Wikipedia/Flickr from user muohace_dc

Gonzalez is key in the NLDS. Photo via Wikipedia/Flickr from user muohace_dc

As requested in the comments, here’s a good thread to argue about and attempt to read the tea leaves as to what the team will do for its upcoming divisional series against Los Angeles.

A quick note before starting: the Dodgers are literally dead last in the majors against lefties as a team.   The have a team BA of .216 against all lefties, which is 15 points lower than the 29th ranked team.  They have a 75 wRC+ against lefties and a .634 OPS figure as a team  … by way of comparison, Michael Taylor has an OPS figure of .648 for the 2016 season.  So the Dodgers hit lefties kinda like Taylor hits pitching in general.  I only mention this because, while I knew the Dodgers were “bad” against lefties, I didn’t know they were this bad.

So, common sense may seem to indicate that the team would know an important fact like this and either a) plan their rotation accordingly, and b) plan their bullpen accordingly.  But, we are talking about a team managed by Dusty Baker, and I’m not sure he’ll have it in him to perhaps consider using Gio Gonzalez in this fashion.

So, that being said, here’s what I think will happen with the rotation and bullpen, based on what we’ve been seeing the last few weeks.  (Btw, i am assuming that the Nats don’t blow home field advantage this weekend and the first two games are in DC … which may be a bad assumption but I can’t see them losing 2 of 3 to the unfortunately reeling Marlins)


 

Rotation goes (and this isn’t much of a surprise): Scherzer, Roark, Gonzalez, Ross

Discussion: Scherzer is scheduled to throw Sunday 10/2 in the final game of the season, giving him normal 4 days rest before the first game of the NLDS (here’s the MLB 2016 post-season schedule).  Past that, i’m guessing that Baker will re-arrange the rotation based on performance and not the current order since everyone will have plenty of rest by the time the NLDS rolls around.  Assuming that the final three games feature the expected probables of A.J. Cole tonight, Tanner Roark tomorrow 10/1 and Scherzer, then Roark would be on five days of rest for the NLDS game 2.

Gonzalez then goes in Game 3, in LA.  Is that bad?  Maybe not; in 2016 his home/away splits are nearly identical; he’s been not good no matter where he pitches.

Game 4 is where we think Joe Ross goes 100 pitches or so, which might get him to the 5th inning, and then we see Reynaldo Lopez in a “once through the order” bridge to the back end of the bullpen.  Ross seems like he has gotten back to the point where he can go.

This leaves the likes of Mat LatosA.J. Cole and Lucas Giolito off the post-season roster.  None has really merited inclusion.


Bullpen goes (and this is where I’m sure there’s some disagreement): Melancon, Kelley, Treinen, Belisle, Perez*, Rzepczynski*, Solis*

This means we’re leaving off:

  • Petit: he’s struggled badly and his long man role is replicated by Lopez or Perez
  • Glover: he has also struggled down the stretch and loses out in lieu of a third lefty
  • Gott, Martin and Grace: all have pitched well since their 9/1 call ups, but none are better options or have made cases to supplant the four righties listed above, all of whom have excelled this year.  But I will say, these three may make excellent in-house options to replace the guys who will likely be departing this off-season via FA (specifically Belisle and Rzepczynski).

 

I think this is a good plan of attack.

Who is the first lefty out of the pen to face the likes of Joc PedersonCorey Seager, Adrian Gonzalez or Chase Utley?   Per their current depth chart, the Dodgers are starting no less than six guys who are lefty only but the above four are the ones to be most scared of.  I think it’ll be scrabble, but having three arms makes it easier to do lefty matchups multiple times in a game.

thoughts?

 

37 Responses to 'Post-Season pitching Staff; who should it be?'

Subscribe to comments with RSS or TrackBack to 'Post-Season pitching Staff; who should it be?'.

  1. Todd, I like it and agree with your thoughts. I’d prefer to see Burnett instead of Perez, but neither would surprise me. As for the rotation order, should we consider Gio in Game 2 and Roark in Game 3? Having Gio at home would seem to help in case he gets mentally rattled, but the real reason would be to separate him and Ross with the extra day in between for travel. If Gio has to get yanked early Dusty could bring Lopez or Ross in without over taxing the bullpen when they might be needed for Game 4 as well. Or Scherzer could come back for Game 4 on short rest, but that would have Gio lined up for Game 5 if neseccary

    MG

    30 Sep 16 at 12:31 pm

  2. I’m with MG on the game 2/3 switch. I think you pretty much nailed it on the rest.

    Are you planning a similar post on the bench? I fully expect Dusty to stick with the older guys, but am hopeful he will give Goodwin a chance over Robinson or Revere.

    cab

    30 Sep 16 at 12:58 pm

  3. I generally agree with one caveat: Lopez can’t be both the emergency long reliever (suppose Roark/Gio gets pulled early in game 3) and the “piggyback” for Ross, who seems to be limited to 3-4 good innings before his velocity drops. The Ross/Lopez piggyback has been working pretty well, so I wouldn’t, break that up.

    Thus I think either Latos or Cole makes it, probably over Belisle, as an “in case of emergency” long option, with the hope/ expectation being that neither of them sees the mound in the series. My guess is Dusty gets Latos on in the name of “veteran leadership.”

    I also hope the team has learned from watching him this year that Perez is fine so long as he only faces lefties. If they’re truly committed to him as a LOOGY, I’d actually take Perez over Burnett, but if they’re looking for someone they think they can get a full inning out of that just happens to be left-handed, then I’d take Burnett. Perez’s bad l/r splits also rule him out as an emergency long man IMO.

    NatsGuy

    30 Sep 16 at 1:08 pm

  4. Yeah, you left Burnett off the bullpen equation. I think it’s a toss-up right now between Perez and Burnett. Dusty seems intrigued by Burnett and is giving him a long look. I don’t trust Perez, or Petit. (Following up from Todd’s post on the last thread, I see Petit, Perez, and Revere as nontender candidates . . . as well as candidates to be watching the playoffs from the stands.)

    I had mentioned Scherzer on short rest for Game 4 several weeks ago when we still didn’t know about Ross. There has been a fair amount of talk around, though, that neither he nor Dusty particularly want to do the short rest thing.

    In a weird way, it might be better if the Nats lose home field, as Scherzer and Roark would be bulldogs on the road and let the more fragile Gio and the young Ross pitch at home. But the Nats seem in good position to get the home field.

    I don’t think we’ll see any deviation from Scherzer-Roark-Gonzalez-Ross-Scherzer, though, as much as we might wish for something different.

    KW

    30 Sep 16 at 1:08 pm

  5. NatGuy, posting at the same time I was, brings up a good point: the threat of back-to-back games where the bullpen might have to go four innings or so, with Gio and Ross piggybacked. I wouldn’t be shocked by Cole over Belisle by that logic, but I think Dusty really likes Belisle. Belisle has gotten a few two-inning outings this year, and one three-inning one. It’s not ideal, but it could happen in a pinch.

    KW

    30 Sep 16 at 1:12 pm

  6. (whoops; wrote Ross twice instead of Roark in the post but I think you guys know what I meant).

    Burnett; yeah that’s one of the arguments you can make. Do you go with Solis or Burnett? Do you go Burnett or Perez? Me thinks Dusty trusts his season-long guy versus his 3-week guy.

    Switching gio and roark. I thought about it and its a maybe … but like I said, I don’t sense dusty is the experimenting type. I think he sets the rotation based on his ranks and that’s the way he goes.

    Todd Boss

    30 Sep 16 at 1:15 pm

  7. NatsGuy/KW: Lopez in dual role issue: I completely agree, and it supports why I think Perez still makes it. If you need a bunch of innings he can do it. He’s more than just a loogy (unlike perhaps Scrabble and/or Solis … i mean, solis *can* throw multiple innings but not likely after coming off injury).

    Todd Boss

    30 Sep 16 at 1:17 pm

  8. Cole over Belisle for long man duties … maybe. How about both and you drop a bench player? That’d be heresy since my laid out plan already is carrying an “extra” starter in Lopez versus what you’d normally do for a short series.

    But don’t we think Belisle is a favorite of Dusty?

    Todd Boss

    30 Sep 16 at 1:24 pm

  9. Five bench guys, which they’ve carried most of the season, was probably a lock before the Ramos injury and is really one now, with the potential need to pinch-hit for a catcher. The quintet would seem to be Drew, Robinson, Heisey, the nonstarter between Lobaton and Severino, and then Revere or maybe Goodwin. I’d like to see Goodwin get a chance, but I imagine that Dusty will go with the veteran.

    Solis *should* be a lock if he’s reasonably healthy. I think Scrabble is as well. The lefty toss-up is between Perez and Burnett. I would imagine they’ve even discussed taking four lefties to face LA, but I doubt they’ll bump Belisle for a loogy. It’s possible, though.

    FWIW, they must like what they’re seeing from Burnett since Grace has gotten very little action.

    KW

    30 Sep 16 at 1:54 pm

  10. I just looked at Perez’s stats, looking for something useful. There isn’t much. He isn’t much better vs. LHP than he is RHP, although he has been used more as a loogy recently. Meanwhile, I think the only run Burnett has allowed in the majors this year has been one that Glover inherited from him and escorted home with a tater. If it’s me, it’s Burnett over Perez, with little debate.

    KW

    30 Sep 16 at 2:01 pm

  11. Yeah, maybe Perez is the emergency long-relief answer that I hadn’t really thought of? He’s more than just a LOOGY but is not very good at it. But, the wrinkle here is the Dodgers and their futility against lefties. The Dodgers lineup is going to be something like:

    Utley (L)
    Seager (L)
    Turner (R)
    Gonzalez (L)
    Puig (R)
    Grandal (S)
    Reddick (L)
    Pedersen (L)
    Pitcher

    So even if Perez took over at the least opportune time (with Turner), if he went two innings, he’d face at least three lefties, plus Grandal, whose numbers this year are worse against lefties than righties. If he lets anyone one, he would then just pick up the pitcher’s spot followed by two more lefties. If there was a long-relief situation tailor-made for Oliver Perez, this is it, right?

    I think I’d take those odds over Cole/Latos now that I think about it…

    NatsGuy

    30 Sep 16 at 2:15 pm

  12. Maybe the Nats should just carry every lefty on their roster and throw out a bullpen like this:
    – Burnett, Rzepczynski, Perez, Grace, Solis.

    Then (here’s the fun part): Clint Robinson goes from backup 1B/lefty off the bench to middle reliever. And they call up Brian Harper and he wears Bryce’s jersey.

    then, instead of throwing RHP starters Scherzer, Roark and Ross, they immediately call up southpaws from the farm Aaron Laffey (AAA), Nick Lee from AA (remember him) and lefty starters Crownover and Sylvestre from Potomac. There’s your playoff roster!

    Todd Boss

    30 Sep 16 at 2:51 pm

  13. I think you’ve just covered why the Nats don’t have much depth in LHP . . .

    Since Scrabble and then Burnett arrived, Perez has been used minimally, mainly as just a one-out guy. His total for Sept. is 2.2 IP. Burnett has 5.0. I hope that’s the trend.

    I don’t think Latos is in the equation. He hasn’t gotten much recent work and got rocked his last couple of times. Lopez seems to have emerged as the go-to long man. Of course we do need to remember that Lopez pitched 99 innings in 2015 and is at 152.2 thus far in 2016.

    KW

    30 Sep 16 at 3:43 pm

  14. Lopez workload; yeah that’s too much of an increase. But they’re pot committed now; what are they gonna do, shut him down now? He’ll be on Verducci’s watch list next year for sure.

    Todd Boss

    30 Sep 16 at 3:49 pm

  15. I’d have Solis, Scrabble and Burnett as the LHRP in the bullpen. I just don’t trust Perez, and I don’t think that Baker does, either. I won’t be at all surprised if Perez is left off of the roster.

    I thought about Game 2 Gio if the Nats get home field, but I just couldn’t do it. If Kershaw outduels Scherzer in Game 1, Game 2 is a de facto elimination game (being swept at home in a five game series if you lose). In that scenario, against Rich Hill, give me Roark.

    One possibility is that the four game rest before the NLDS and the travel days after Game 2 and Game 4 could enable the team to actually go with a seven man bullpen and add another bat to the bench (Catcher, Drew, Heisey, Difo, Goodwin/Revere, CRob). The fact that it’s the playoffs and you can push your pitchers harder would also come into play. This would better enable Baker to hit for Espinosa and Zimmerman (as well as the pitchers) if (as seems likely) runs are hard to come by.

    Tempting, but with Gio and Ross creating the possibility of a de facto “bullpen game” in their starts makes that a bold/risky move.

    John C.

    30 Sep 16 at 4:02 pm

  16. We don’t know about extended spring training and instructional league innings for Lopez, something that Rizzo brought up earlier in the year when there were questions about a Giolito shutdown innings number. Giolito does seem more or less shutdown, though, doesn’t he, and right about the expected number. Giolito is at 136.2 and finished ’15 at 117. I’ve said all year that Giolito was good for 140-150.

    Dare I mention that Lopez signed for $17K and probably doesn’t have much representation, while Giolito is the polar opposite in both categories? Probably not . . .

    KW

    30 Sep 16 at 4:09 pm

  17. JohnC: good points. Its also possible that Baker goes with Scherzer on 3-days rest in Game 4 if its an elimination game and he only goes 75 pitches or something. He still would have Ross and Lopez waiting in the wings to finish game 4 and then Roark could go Game 5 on

    NLDS game 1: 10/7: Scherzer on regular rest
    Game 2: 10/8: Roark on extra rest
    Game 3: 10/10: Gio on plenty of rest
    Game 4: 10/11: Scherzer on short rest/bullpen game.
    Game 5: 10/13: Roark on regular rest

    Wouldn’t you rather do this and get two starts each out of your two best arms?

    Todd Boss

    30 Sep 16 at 4:15 pm

  18. KW: Lopez “value” to the organization based on his bonus figure … I guess you could be cynical and think that … i’d certainly think that and have heard that in various forms when talking about the general use of dominican “labor” in the low minors. But the Nats have to be looking at Lopez in a different light at this point; complete found gold. I mean, a MLB player for $17k bonus? That makes up for all the multi-million dollar misses over the years. They can’t be cyncal about that right?

    Todd Boss

    30 Sep 16 at 4:17 pm

  19. If I’m remembering correctly, Lopez didn’t get the expected innings last year because of an injury. Maybe they made up for those innings in the instructional league. Hard to know. The Nats do get the benefit of the doubt from their history of protecting young arms. But the difference in the innings increase ratios for Lopez vs. Giolito does raise an eyebrow.

    KW

    30 Sep 16 at 4:29 pm

  20. Playoffs, if Max beats Claw, do the Nats reconsider starting Gio in Game 2? If the Nats lose the first one, I don’t think there’s any doubt that it’s Roark over Gio in the second.

    If Game 4 is an elimination game for the Nats, I wouldn’t completely rule out Max, no matter what Dusty has said.

    However, Dusty does seem well known by the players for letting them know in advance when and how he plans to use them. So I would be surprised if there is a deviation from the expected rotation.

    KW

    30 Sep 16 at 4:33 pm

  21. The irritating thing about the potential of Lopez being overused is that there were those of us advocating back in July that he be switched to pitching in relief so he could be available for the remainder of the season without being overused. Lopez made three starts at Syracuse after his first callup on 7/19, and pitched 22 essentially wasted innings there including, inexplicably, a complete game. The last start was a 7-inning affair on 8/30, well after Rizzo and company knew how important he might be in September and possibly October.

    As for any cynicism about his use vs. Giolito’s, it is hard to say for sure given that the latter has been so awful. If Giolito were pitching lights out as a starter, would they have used him in the playoffs given their current need? We’ll never know.

    Karl Kolchack

    30 Sep 16 at 9:57 pm

  22. Well, Burnett demonstrated tonight why his 88 MPH fastball should not be allowed anywhere near the Dodgers’ lineup. Not that Perez is much better. Also not thrilled with the decision to bring Solis back for another inning coming back from his injury given how badly they need him to be healthy right now.

    Harper with the Golden Sombrero after missing only four games–yet we’re supposed to believe Murphy will be “100% ready” for the playoffs when he hasn’t played in two weeks?

    Karl Kolchack

    1 Oct 16 at 12:21 am

  23. Hey, at least the Dodgers lost too. Home field advantage one game away. My nearly season long prediction of 96 wins is out too; needed to take 3 of 4 from Arizona to have a shot there.

    Baker bullpen usage last night; definitely like a ST game; you have to think he was preparing these guys for potential roles. Maybe Perez is the loogy and Solis is the lefty/longman?

    Todd Boss

    1 Oct 16 at 7:41 am

  24. Is it just me or does Werth look uncomfortable batting behind Turner? He doesn’t seem to have alot of great ab’s with Turner on the base paths. Looks irritated and distracted. Time to get Rendon back up there.

    Harper really killed us last night. Could have had a couple giant innings if he didn’t kill the rallies. That’s what entitlement will do for you. Frightening to say that I feel more confident with Lobaton at bat than Harper this year.

    Hope we get some miracles in the playoffs as the offense is pretty scary right now. We basically have Turner, a hobbled Murphy, Rendon, Drew (if he plays) and a team full of #8 hitters.

    Really Espi, Zimm, Werth, Harper, Lobaton, Revere, Taylor – all are worthy of the #8 spot.

    I think we’re going to miss the energy and quick bats of Goodwin and Difo next week when they leave the roster. We’ll probably average 12+ K’s a game.

    Dusty did an amazing job winning this division so easily with all the injuries and non performance by key guys. Got just enough offense with Murphy hot all year plus one or two other guys taking turns joining him getting hot for a short spell. Turner changed the whole dynamic in the 2nd half.

    I’m excited to see Scherzer battle Kershaw in a true battle of the aces. Will be interesting to see if Roark looks like a true #2 in playoff environment.

    Someone needs to get really hot and be a playoff hero to carry the whole offense. Who do you guys think that’s going to be? I don’t think it’s going to be Harper. My guess is Werth or Zimm pulls the miracle turnaround.

    Marty C

    1 Oct 16 at 8:19 am

  25. Yeah, it sure looked like bullpen audition night, didn’t it? Perez as a loogy isn’t new; that basically what they’ve been doing with him for the last month. And not a good time for Burnett to go cold. Grace warmed up but didn’t get in the game. And Solis went too long.

    Cole was shaky but was hampered by the dropped pop. Did Latos just get himself back in long-man consideration? Guess we’ll find out.

    And yes, Bryce was struggling to even make contact to foul off pitches. He’s got a week to find some timing somewhere. And Trea’s got a week to try not to cool off. He’s got a .920 OPS with 31 SBs in about 40% of a season. Wow.

    KW

    1 Oct 16 at 8:24 am

  26. Werth ABs with Turner on base: i’ve absolutely played with guys who could not stand it when the guys on base were screwing around on the basepaths. They’d literally walk out of the batters box if a SB attempt occurred.

    marty; i literally cannot believe you’re criticizing Harper right now, knowing he’s trying to work his way back from a frigging hand injury. You don’t think he’d be on the 15 day D/L if this was mid-June?

    Todd Boss

    1 Oct 16 at 8:37 am

  27. Todd… I’m not short sample sizing. Ive been criticizing Harper all year. He has not looked anything less than horrible since April. You jumped all over me in May when I asked if it was time to worry about Harper. Even his few weeks with decent looking stat lines since April have been empty and powerless stats. The eye test has been even harsher to these eyes.

    Todd… he’s not working his way back from hand injury. He’s working his way back from 5 basically horrible months. He should be batting in front of nobody except the pitcher and maybe Espinosa.

    He should be batting 7th or 8th all year based on performance not hype. And not killing rallies now batting in front of Rendon and Drew and anyone else who’s not diving into the 1b dugout on every swing.

    I’m hoping for a miracle from him when the big lights go on. But unless he radically changes his mechanics, I’m more hopeful of Zimm or Werth as the breakout hot for a couple weeks hero.

    Marty C

    1 Oct 16 at 11:20 am

  28. Here’s some numbers for you: .310/.398/.536. That’s Bryce in August. I’d take that any month of the year, particularly in October. But he struggled in July and Sept., so August didn’t particularly stand out.

    I’d actually think about batting Bryce second, so he’d think more about just making contact rather than trying to be a big-swinging middle-of-the-order guy. When he stays balanced and just makes contact, good things happen.

    Werth claims that he likes batting second. If he’s not used to Trea running after 31 SBs, it’s too bad and too late. Maybe he thinks he’s taking some pitches to give Trea a chance. Don’t worry about that. If it’s a good pitch, make contact.

    Trea doesn’t run on every pitch, though. He’s very smart about it. He’s getting some incredible jumps, which has nothing to do with being fast.

    As for Zim, he has 10 hits over his last 10 starts. That’s basically .250, but it’s a sign of life. Robinson isn’t an alternative. Yeah, he got two singles last night, but singles are ALL his has since early July. He has no extra-base hits since the all-star break. If there’s a platoon at 1B, it should be with Drew. But there’s less production out of the SS spot, so we might see Drew for Danny at some point in the playoffs if Danny goes 0-fer the first couple of games.

    KW

    1 Oct 16 at 12:40 pm

  29. Did we forget about Harper’s season-long struggles with a shoulder injury? http://sports.yahoo.com/news/report-bryce-harpers-shoulder-injury-remains-an-issue-193238888.html

    Remember a couple weeks back when he was suddenly playing RF as if there was a girl up to bat and we were playing co-ed softball? Read the above link. If that’s not explanation enough for his crummy season then I dunno what to tell you. It explains it for me. He’s got enough talent to run into balls for a while before the pain gets to him and he’s back hitting .200. After the 2015 season he had, i’m not throwing him under the bus.

    Todd Boss

    1 Oct 16 at 8:26 pm

  30. Oh, and one other thing on Harper. I’m certain i’ve heard complaints about how he’s not “clutch.”

    Well, here’s his splits on the year at fangraphs; check out the splits for low, medium and high leverage for Harper this year: http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=11579&position=OF&season=2016

    In “high leverage” situations he has more than a 1.000 OPS right now, far above his season values, and a 1676 wRC+. Yeah; that’s clutch. It puts him in the top third of the league of qualified batters coincidentally, despite his down season.

    Do you want to know who is dead last among qualified “high leverage” hitters? http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=0&season=2016&month=26&season1=2016&ind=0&team=&rost=&age=0&filter=&players=&page=6_30
    That’s right; our own Ryan Zimmerman. 3 more years on that contract!

    Todd Boss

    1 Oct 16 at 8:31 pm

  31. Bryce looks a little healthier, is playing deeper in the OF. We’ll never know, though. They’re not talking.

    And we’ve got Trea.

    Does Murph play on Sunday to try to win the batting title over the sitting chicken in Colorado?

    Also, very good to see Kershaw lose on the road in his last start before the playoffs.

    KW

    1 Oct 16 at 9:02 pm

  32. Todd… You’re not watching enough games. Harper has looked bad at the plate all year. Even August he got a lot of soft hits that made his stats look better. Only 3 HR’s in that “good month”. I am quite sure you do not want him next up in clutch this year outside of April.

    We don’t have to defend these guys like their our own kids. Harper is probably making $25 million in endorsements to soothe his worries. it’s okay to say a guy is having a lousy season if he is having one. It’s okay to say a guy is having a great season if he is having one – like Bryce’s amazing historic season last year. Where he looked even better than his amazing stats.

    But this is a whole new year. Injury? Mechanics? Matt Williams? Lost confidence? Who knows…

    If he was that injured he probably should not have been playing. But he has a lot of endorsements that pressure him to keep his name in the headlines. Like I said earlier…. teams have been crazy to even walk him like they have since August as he’s been no threat with the bat. They are walking a memory from last year.

    If he’s injured, maybe he takes a needle for the playoffs to give him a short term boost like has helped Zimm in the past. But will that keep him from bailing out mechanics wise?

    Let’s hope he somehow turns it around for a couple weeks and glows in the playoffs to salvage his season. Meanwhile that Turner kid you wanted to block from the lineup looks okay…

    Marty C

    1 Oct 16 at 9:41 pm

  33. Harper’s OPS since the beginning of May is .766, and he has hit 15 HRs, driven in 68 and stolen 16 bases in the 5 months since. Terribly disappointing given the lofty standards he has set for himself, but not a complete disaster while his .370 OBP during this time period makes what KW said about batting him 2nd make a lot of sense.

    My take on Harper is that he does seem to be a lightening rod for controversy even if he otherwise seems like an okay guy. He has a chance starting next week to erase memories of his “down” year. Let’s hope he does it.

    Karl Kolchack

    2 Oct 16 at 12:53 am

  34. Further proof that MLB free swinging leopards never really change their spots: since 7/22 Ian Desmond’s OPS has plummeted back to .588, and he has hit only 4 HRs and walked only 14 times in his last 264 PAs. Desmond’s season is eerily similar to Espinosa’s. He got off to a horrid start, went on a torrential run, and has gone stone cold the last two months of the season. The main difference is that Desmond’s hot streak lasted about six weeks longer than Espinosa’s.

    If I were a GM, I’d be wary of giving Desmond more than a 2-year deal given that he turns 32 late next season and hitters with no plate discipline do not tend to age well. He’ll get back some of that $100 million the Nats offered him, but he’ll still going to be out a big chunk of change.

    Karl Kolchack

    2 Oct 16 at 1:19 am

  35. Karl, I laughed a week or two ago when Sports Illustrated did a big story on Desi’s “comeback” season. His OPS+ for the second half is 62. He’s struck out 160 times on the year. I wish him well, as I do JZim, but no Nats fan is surprised by his second-half regression.

    Danny, maintaining the Nat SS tradition, has struck out 174 times. His OPS+ is 78. Desi’s last year was 82. Trea is literally close to doubling Danny at 144.

    Happy last day of the regular season to all. Time for Max to get #20. Going into his last start, he leads the NL in wins and K/BB ratio and the majors in K’s, WHIP, and fewest hits per 9 among starters.

    Kershaw road ERA: 2.28. Scherzer home ERA: 2.23.

    KW

    2 Oct 16 at 8:06 am

  36. It was a great day to attend a “meaningless” game. How can you not love a pitcher who drives in 4 runs in his own cause that make the difference in him getting his 20th win.

    On a personal note, my wife and I were invited by Ryan and Heather Zimmerman to go along with Heather and their two daughters to meet Ryan as he came out of the clubhouse after the game. In addition chatting with them for about 10 minutes, we saw Harper, Scherzer, Roark, Murphy, Drew, Treinen and Burnett as they came out in street clothes, gathered their families (girlfriend in Bryce’s case, I believe) and walked to the parking lot. When you see them that way up close, it’s a sobering reminder that they are real people and not just stats & figures. Ryan is just about as soft spoken and unassuming in person as he is in his television interviews.

    We also said hello to passing Mike Rizzo in the tunnel, but I politely refrained from complaining about how he dumps so many LH relief pitchers. 🙂

    Karl Kolchack

    2 Oct 16 at 11:32 pm

  37. karl; sounds like an awesome experience. I’m glad you showed some restraint with Rizzo 🙂

    Todd Boss

    3 Oct 16 at 8:50 am

Leave a Reply